Career Averages - Timur Valiev
Career Averages - Martin Day
Timur Valiev
Martin Day
Timur Valiev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Shore | 2 | 70 of 107 | 65% | 87 of 128 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 72 of 150 | 48% | 75 of 155 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Shore | 0 | 24 of 37 | 64% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 30 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Jack Shore | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 3 | Jack Shore | 2 | 29 of 42 | 69% | 38 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Shore | 70 of 107 | 65% | 46 of 81 | 15 of 17 | 9 of 9 | 54 of 89 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 11 |
| Timur Valiev | 72 of 150 | 48% | 23 of 83 | 26 of 40 | 23 of 27 | 67 of 144 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Shore | 24 of 37 | 64% | 12 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 30 of 58 | 51% | 8 of 27 | 12 of 18 | 10 of 13 | 28 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Shore | 17 of 28 | 60% | 9 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 21 of 41 | 51% | 4 of 19 | 7 of 12 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Shore | 29 of 42 | 69% | 25 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 11 |
| Timur Valiev | 21 of 51 | 41% | 11 of 37 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jack Shore with a slight edge, citing the home crowd advantage and the fact that Trevin Jones was able to take down Valiev, suggesting Shore can too. He notes that both fighters are grapplers who struggled in their last fights, but he trusts Shore's wrestling and thinks the London crowd will give him extra juice.
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev to win a close decision, acknowledging it's an unpopular pick. He favors Valiev on the feet due to his volume and mixing of tools, and believes Valiev's scrambling ability will allow him to get back up if taken down. Brady notes Jack Shore's best win was a split decision against Hunter Azure and that Shore has not faced a step-up in competition like Valiev. He also mentions Valiev's chin is a concern but doesn't think it will be an issue here.
Cody leans Valiev, citing his speed and striking advantage. He thinks Shore's wrestling might be neutralized and that Valiev's chin is a concern but he has good recovery. He is surprised by line movement and may wait for weigh-ins.
Daniel Levi picks Jack Shore, citing his undefeated record, strong grappling stats (5 takedowns per 15 minutes, 100% takedown defense), and the hometown advantage in the UK. He believes Valiev's best chance is a close decision, but judges will favor Shore in a close fight. Levi also notes that Valiev has been knocked down before and that Shore's submission threat is real. He expects a submission or dominant decision.
Jack Shore is a 15-0 prospect with excellent wrestling and top control, able to drag fights to the ground and dominate. Valiev is more of a flashy striker but can grapple if needed, though he lacks crazy knockout power. Shore's takedowns should be effective, and he can grind out a decision. The line movement from +150 to +100 reflects public support, and I understand why. I like Shore to grind out Valiev over 15 minutes.
Paul picks Shore, emphasizing his undefeated streak, excellent wrestling, and pace. He thinks Valiev has cardio and chin issues, and that Shore's volume and pressure will win rounds. He believes the British judges will favor Shore in a close fight.
The Guru picks Jack Shore as an underdog, citing his grappling pressure and reach advantage. He believes Timur Valiev slows down in fights, as seen against Trevin Jones and Chris Gutierrez. He predicts Shore will grind on Valiev against the cage, take his back, and secure a rear-naked choke in round three. He notes Shore's youth and undefeated record.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 2 | 69 of 131 | 52% | 81 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 77 of 190 | 40% | 77 of 190 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 18 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 2 | 35 of 60 | 58% | 47 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 31 of 84 | 36% | 31 of 84 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 69 of 131 | 52% | 50 of 110 | 8 of 10 | 11 of 11 | 53 of 112 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 18 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 77 of 190 | 40% | 38 of 137 | 18 of 28 | 21 of 25 | 73 of 185 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 18 of 47 | 38% | 7 of 32 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 35 of 60 | 58% | 29 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 18 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 28 of 59 | 47% | 13 of 40 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 27 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 22 of 45 | 48% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raoni Barcelos | 31 of 84 | 36% | 18 of 65 | 3 of 7 | 10 of 12 | 31 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
One of the more highly anticipated matchups of the fight card will treat fans next, as two men on lengthy unbeaten streaks in Barcelos (16-1, 5-0 UFC) with nine and Valiev (17-2, 1 NC; 1-0, 1 NC UFC) with eight lock horns. The bantamweight horn-locking will draw oversight from referee Mike Beltran, who sees the two rising stars avoid touching horns – gloves, rather – before coming out swinging. Barcelos feints and fakes his way in, and his movements alone draw reactions out of the Dagestan native. Valiev flings a head kick that is well off the mark, and there is a tense staring contest playing out in the middle of the cage. Valiev finally reaches out with a string of jabs, and only one finds its target. Valiev shrugs off a leg kick and loads up on a right hand, but he is met with a high kick. Valiev gives him one back, and Barcelos marches in to throw but comes up short. The Brazilian scores a quick counter right hand when Valiev charges him, and he gets off a solid jab as well. They clash together without much of note, and Valiev zips a body kick out before Barcelos can stop it. Valiev attacks the calf before blitzing in with a pair of strikes, and Barcelos sees him coming and swipes him away. Barcelos whiffs with an uppercut and pushes Valiev into the wire, where he grinds him for a moment before they break apart. Both trade body kicks, and Barcelos is able to follow his with one to the inside leg. A front kick from Valiev lands straight to the body, and he steps back to avoid counter punches. Valiev chops down the lead leg, only to absorb a kick to his liver. Barcelos rings home a right hand, and he gets popped with a sudden superman punch but does not show any immediate concern. Valiev tries to dodge a few punches, and when he does, Barcelos kicks his leg. Valiev shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and the Brazilian stuffs him with his back against the cage. Valiev holds on to this position in the waning seconds, and gets off a knee to break free right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Valiev
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Valiev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Valiev
Round 2
Barcelos is the first to lead off with a leg kick in the beginning of the round, and when a soaring head kick comes up short, Valiev hops forward to kick his inside leg. Barcelos tries to pin a one-two on the chin, but the Russian is out of harm’s way in time. Valiev ducks down to threaten a takedown, and Barcelos stops it and lands a right hand. Valiev ducks a huge punch and tries to fire back, and the bantamweights are elusive and energetic as they dodge and weave. Valiev sneaks in a few leg kicks, and he ducks the punches that come his way. “Lucky” scores a huge punch that was not lucky right on the chin, and Barcelos eats it like an acai bowl and stuffs the subsequent takedown attempt. Valiev tries to pin him down with another one of these looping shots, but this time, Barcelos sees it coming and evades it. Barcelos reaches out with a front kick, and Valiev responds with one to his foe’s lead leg. Single strikes are largely the method of attack so far, with one landing and the other trying to give it back. Barcelos gets cracked with a right hand in a combination, and he walks through it to score a stiff uppercut. Barcelos looks to capitalize on that with another, but it hits nothing but air. Valiev looses a leg kick and a high kick before Barcelos can react, and Barcelos is aiming with power punches that have some heat on them. Valiev hops forward and gets countered, but he slips a punch and lands one of his own. Both trade body kicks, and Valiev catches it and tries to take his man down. Barcelos rolls through and gets up, where they deliver kicks to the body. Barcelos cracks Valiev with a huge right hand, and Valiev gets knocked off his feet and chased to the ground. As Valiev sits up, Barcelos blasts him with an uppercut that nearly separates Valiev from his consciousness. Beltran implores Valiev to fight back, and Barcelos continues his barrage of strikes from on top as he climbs into half guard. Valiev survives to the bell, and struggles to get back to his feet but makes it to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 3
Valiev begins the round with a leg kick, and he might not have his wits about him but he is throwing hard right out of the gate. Valiev ducks down for a takedown, and Barcelos staves it off and aims a counter uppercut that glances off Valiev’s chin. The Russian falls off-balance throwing a right hand, and a leg kick scores shortly after. Blocking a head kick, Valiev continues to chip at his opponent’s lead leg a few more times. Valiev walks face-first into another uppercut, and Barcelos has timed the strike and watches Valiev’s head bob to land it a few times. As Valiev succeeds with a right hand, Barcelos nearly kicks Valiev’s leg out from beneath him with a kick that he turns his hips into. Valiev plants a one-two on the chin, and Barcelos’ face is showing some damage but his resolve is not shaken. Valiev puts several punches together, and he ends a combination with an elbow as Barcelos marches him down. Barcelos’ head movement keeps him out of harm’s way, but he reaches out with a right hand and gets snared into a double leg takedown attempt. The Brazilian hops his way to the fence and yanks his leg free, and Valiev circles on the outside before trying again. Barcelos stops it with ease, but he absorbs a right hand. Valiev keeps volume going, with punches, kicks, spinning back fists and whatever he can come up with at the time. Both men land power punches at the same time, and Valiev gets the worst of the exchange but it does not hurt him. The Russian backs off with a leg kick, and Barcelos replies in kind. As Barcelos lands a strike, Valiev is able to get off two or three in the same span, even if they may not be as individually damaging. Barcelos stings him with a right hand, and a left gets Valiev’s attention. Valiev is not concerned, throwing back with quick punches to keep his man at bay. Both leap at one another at the same time, and when they land, that is the last bit of offense until the final horn concludes the match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Valiev (29-28 Valiev)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Valiev (29-28 Valiev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Valiev (29-28 Valiev)
The Official Result
Timur Valiev def. Raoni Barcelos via Majority Decision (28-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Timur Valiev, calling him the best underdog on the card. He believes the line is too wide and that Valiev is very good. He has a moneyline bet and a prop bet on Valiev. He notes that Valiev will definitely win a round, so the +3.5 bet is a good play.
Big Brady picks Raoni Barcelos to win by decision, calling him the real deal with no holes in his game except maybe cardio. He notes Barcelos's excellent striking defense (67%), positive strike differential, and strong wrestling/ground game. He thinks Barcelos will mix in takedowns and control the fight, while Valiev is a good striker but has been taken down before. He expects a high-level fight but Barcelos to win the first two rounds and get a decision.
Cody is a big fan of Barcelos, calling him a 'created character' with elite striking, wrestling, BJJ, cardio, and chin. He criticizes the UFC for not giving Barcelos ranked opponents. He acknowledges Valiev's early pressure and unorthodox strikes but believes Barcelos's durability, cardio, and ring IQ will allow him to take over after the first round. He suggests live betting after the first round if Valiev looks competitive.
Jacob picks Timur Valiev, stating he was going to pick the underdog regardless because he thinks it's an even matchup. He notes Barcelos' grappling ability but believes Valiev's striking is good enough to win. Jacob has Valiev in his lineup.
Barcelos is a notch ahead in striking, especially with his Muay Thai. He throws great combinations ending with leg kicks, while Valiev is more explosive in bursts. Barcelos' volume and impactful shots will outwork Valiev's wild spinning attacks. Both have good grappling, so the fight stays standing, and Barcelos' style is more efficient. The line is too wide but Barcelos still wins.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Barcelos. He notes Barcelos's well-rounded skills and that Valiev fades after the first round. He thinks Barcelos's durability and pace will be too much for Valiev, who has lost as a big favorite before. Paul also mentions that Barcelos has been matched tough but always finds a way.
The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos by close unanimous decision (29-28), citing his experience and leg kicks reminiscent of Jose Aldo. He notes Valiev's hesitancy after his no-contest with Trevin Jones and believes Barcelos will grind out a win by landing more damaging blows. He expects a razor-close scrap but favors Barcelos' proven track record.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 55 of 76 | 72% | 115 of 149 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 11:19 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 21 of 25 | 84% | 57 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 22 of 33 | 66% | 30 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 55 of 76 | 72% | 37 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 16 | 20 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 43 |
| Martin Day | 8 of 28 | 28% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 12 of 18 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Martin Day | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 21 of 25 | 84% | 18 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 18 |
| Martin Day | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 22 of 33 | 66% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 22 |
| Martin Day | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev, citing his higher output, better fight IQ, and advantages everywhere on the feet and on the mat. He notes that Valiev was winning his last fight before getting caught, and that Martin Day is 0-3 in the UFC with questionable fight IQ. He expects Valiev to win a dominant decision, but warns that the odds may be too high to bet.
Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev confidently, citing his dynamic and well-rounded game. He notes Valiev's loss to Trevin Jones was due to gassing out while trying to finish, and expects a more measured approach. He believes Valiev's striking and takedown ability will overwhelm Martin Day.
Valiev is a well-rounded fighter with good kicks and solid wrestling. Day has lost three straight and makes poor decisions, like leaving his neck exposed in submissions. Valiev's striking and grappling should be too much. However, the line is expected to be very high (around -400), so there is no betting value. I expect Valiev to win by decision.
The MMA Guru is very confident in Timur Valiev, calling this a 'lamb for slaughter'. He notes Valiev's high-level competition and only two losses, one a split decision to Chris Gutierrez which he avenged. He believes Martin Day is on a losing streak and took this fight on short notice, predicting a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 1 | 66 of 93 | 70% | 66 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Timur Valiev | 1 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 1 | 53 of 74 | 71% | 53 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Timur Valiev | 1 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 19 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevin Jones | 66 of 93 | 70% | 28 of 50 | 25 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 60 of 86 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 26 of 50 | 52% | 21 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevin Jones | 53 of 74 | 71% | 26 of 43 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 47 of 67 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trevin Jones | 13 of 19 | 68% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Timur Valiev | 18 of 26 | 69% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev to win by decision. He acknowledges that Trevin Jones has good wrestling and might get a takedown or two, but Valiev is better everywhere—on the feet and on the mat. Jones made mistakes on the mat against lower-level guys, getting reversed and swept, which Valiev will capitalize on. Brady finds it hard to see a path to victory for Jones.
Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev to win by unanimous decision. He notes Valiev is well-rounded, fast, and has a Russian coast style that is hard to prepare for on short notice. Levi points out that Trevin Jones is taking the fight on short notice after a year layoff, and that Valiev has been in a training rhythm. He expects Jones to be hesitant and frustrated, losing a decision.
Valiev is the more proven fighter with a judge-friendly style, but the line is too wide. Striegl is a promising newcomer with a huge frame and decent skills, but his competition has been weak. Valiev should win by decision, but there are too many question marks to bet him confidently. Avoid parlaying Valiev.
The MMA Guru picks Timur Valiev, citing his superior competition history, including fights in PFL and WSOF, and a longer camp due to originally being scheduled against Jamal Emmers. He notes Valiev's strength advantage at bantamweight and considers him a top prospect. He dismisses Mark Streagle's competition level as inferior.
Martin Day - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 0 | 55 of 76 | 72% | 115 of 149 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 11:19 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 28 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 21 of 25 | 84% | 57 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 18 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 0 | 22 of 33 | 66% | 30 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timur Valiev | 55 of 76 | 72% | 37 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 14 of 16 | 20 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 43 |
| Martin Day | 8 of 28 | 28% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Timur Valiev | 12 of 18 | 66% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Martin Day | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Timur Valiev | 21 of 25 | 84% | 18 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 18 |
| Martin Day | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Timur Valiev | 22 of 33 | 66% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 22 |
| Martin Day | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev, citing his higher output, better fight IQ, and advantages everywhere on the feet and on the mat. He notes that Valiev was winning his last fight before getting caught, and that Martin Day is 0-3 in the UFC with questionable fight IQ. He expects Valiev to win a dominant decision, but warns that the odds may be too high to bet.
Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev confidently, citing his dynamic and well-rounded game. He notes Valiev's loss to Trevin Jones was due to gassing out while trying to finish, and expects a more measured approach. He believes Valiev's striking and takedown ability will overwhelm Martin Day.
Valiev is a well-rounded fighter with good kicks and solid wrestling. Day has lost three straight and makes poor decisions, like leaving his neck exposed in submissions. Valiev's striking and grappling should be too much. However, the line is expected to be very high (around -400), so there is no betting value. I expect Valiev to win by decision.
The MMA Guru is very confident in Timur Valiev, calling this a 'lamb for slaughter'. He notes Valiev's high-level competition and only two losses, one a split decision to Chris Gutierrez which he avenged. He believes Martin Day is on a losing streak and took this fight on short notice, predicting a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson dos Santos | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 16 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 22 of 31 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 2:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderson dos Santos | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 16 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 22 of 31 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 2:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson dos Santos | 9 of 12 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Day | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anderson dos Santos | 9 of 12 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Day | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davey Grant | 1 | 62 of 160 | 38% | 69 of 168 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:28 |
| Martin Day | 1 | 74 of 177 | 41% | 87 of 191 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davey Grant | 1 | 14 of 47 | 29% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 26 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 2 | Davey Grant | 0 | 22 of 58 | 37% | 26 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:42 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 34 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 3 | Davey Grant | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Martin Day | 1 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davey Grant | 62 of 160 | 38% | 45 of 133 | 15 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 60 of 155 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Martin Day | 74 of 177 | 41% | 47 of 144 | 19 of 24 | 8 of 9 | 69 of 169 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davey Grant | 14 of 47 | 29% | 9 of 36 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Martin Day | 17 of 46 | 36% | 7 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Davey Grant | 22 of 58 | 37% | 13 of 46 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Martin Day | 30 of 71 | 42% | 19 of 59 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 68 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Davey Grant | 26 of 55 | 47% | 23 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Day | 27 of 60 | 45% | 21 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
After a week off, we move to Yas Island in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for a big pay-per-view offering that starts on ESPN and ESPN+. We kick things off in the bantamweight division, as Hawaii tries to get on the board early when Day (8-3, 0-1 UFC) comes back after a long layoff against on Britain’s Grant (11-4, 2-3 UFC). The referee for this card opener is Rich Mitchell, and with a respectful touch of gloves, it’s on with the show! Grant winds up with a big sweeping leg kick, and Day can do nothing but take it flat. Grant pursues another, and Day is not thrilled by eating it, so Grant hits a third. Day backs off and tries to let a side kick fly, but the Brit evades it and slams a calf kick home. Day leaps forward with a hook, and Grant avoids the attack and counters with a few punches to the body. Day whips a body kick up quickly, and follows it with a one-two that comes up short. Day circles around the outside as Grant presses forward with leaping hooks, and the Hawaiian manages to get out of the way of most of the damaging strikes. Day swings with a telegraphed spinning back kick, in such a fashion that Grant can get clear. Day winds up with a massive right hand and cracks Grant on the jaw, dropping him in a flash knockdown. As Grant falls to his back, Day dives on top and starts putting together elbows while Grant clears the cobwebs. Day kicks his way free and gets back to his feet without absorbing much damage, and narrowly avoids a high kick flying at his head. Grant fires a head kick back at him, but Day blocks it and rushes forward to swing heavy leather. As Grant appears to have abandoned the leg kicks, Day picks them up and drops one in on the inside and another on the outside of Grant’s lead leg. Grant shoots in low for a takedown, lifting Day in the air and placing him down on the canvas. Day tries to tie him up with a submission off his back, but Grant bucks it off and climbs into his opponent’s guard. Day powers out to get back up, transitioning into a single leg of his own. The two scramble, and Grant just misses with a looping right hand as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Day
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Day
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Day
Round 2
The two touch gloves to start the second, and begin to brawl. Both men tee off on each other, and Grant catches Day on the end of a right hand in a flurry. Day fires back to the body, and the two separate for a moment to catch their breath. Grant throws out a front kick to halt and advancing Day, and Day responds with a spinning wheel kick that does not connect because he is too close. A solid one-two from Grant leads to another as Day tries to block the strikes. Grant runs forward and drills his man in the jaw with a flying knee, but Day eats it like a sandwich and the two continue to bite down on their gumshields and throw hands. A string of punches from Grant hurt the Hawaiian, and Day falls back to the cage as Grant pursues him. Grant pours it in with a big elbow and some thudding punches to the body as Day waves him on. “Dangerous Davey” backs up, and then quickly reverses to run forward with another knee, but this time Day sees it coming. Grant scoops him up and slams him down as a result, and tries to take top position while Day rolls to get out of danger. Grant sets up a power guillotine as Day attempts to stand, and the Hawaiian pulls his head free but winds up on his back with Grant in north-south position. As the two scramble, Grant quickly sets up a slick armbar, and Day turns the proper direction and gets out before Grant locks it up. Day uses the position to get on top, and eats a back fist on the chops for good measure. Grant walks up the cage and ignores a potential neck crank from his opponent, before the two men let their hands go. Day retreats, and comes back with a side kick right to the chest, sending Grant careening to the ground. The round ends before he can take advantage of this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Grant
Round 3
One final glove touch checks in the last round, and both bantamweights start slugging. Day hurts him with a right hand, but Grant recovers and fires back at him. Grant tries to nail his opponent with a spinning back fist, and Day closes the distance to soften the blow. Grant shoots in low for a single, and Day pushes off and gets out of it. The two go punch-for-punch for a moment, and Day lands the more significant and impactful of strikes with a pair of heavy left hands. They land consistently on one another as they trade strikes, with one connecting and the other responding in kind. Grant goes to the body and lands with a looping left hook, all while dodging the counter that whizzes by his ear. They jab at each other at the same time, and Day chains a combination together that backs Grant against the wall. “Dangerous Davey” comes back at him, and lands a few punches after they come together, on the break.
A right hand gets blocked, and Grant follows it with a left hook that blasts Day about as flush a punch can land. Day is out cold as his legs crumble beneath him, and Mitchell dives in to save the unconscious fighter from any follow-up shots after this huge knockout.
What a performance from the Brit, and what a way to open Fight Island!
The Official Result
Davey Grant def. Martin Day R3 2:38 via KO (Punch)
Big Brady picks Davey Grant as an underdog, citing Grant's dangerous ground game and submission threat. He notes Martin Day looked impressive on the feet but is green on the ground, and Grant's training camp was better due to gym access. He predicts a second-round submission.
Daniel Levi picks Martin Day, citing Day's dynamic striking, improved strength and conditioning, and athleticism. He notes Day's takedown defense looked good against Pingyuan Liu, and believes Day will be too fast and athletic for Davey Grant, who he sees as having a shaky chin and heart. Levi expects Day to land spinning attacks and win decisively.
Martin Day is the better striker with good kicks and distance management. However, Davey Grant may resort to grappling if outgunned on the feet, which gives pause. At -165, not willing to bet, but picks Day to win by decision.
The Guru briefly mentions Martin Day winning, but does not elaborate. He says 'Martin day not gonna be Devi grant gonna be David Grant yeah I think mine day wins'.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pingyuan Liu | 1 | 55 of 133 | 41% | 73 of 155 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 4:45 |
| Martin Day | 1 | 100 of 184 | 54% | 127 of 218 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pingyuan Liu | 0 | 17 of 51 | 33% | 17 of 53 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Pingyuan Liu | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Martin Day | 1 | 48 of 90 | 53% | 50 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Pingyuan Liu | 1 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:13 |
| Martin Day | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 48 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pingyuan Liu | 55 of 133 | 41% | 41 of 111 | 9 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 47 of 118 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 7 |
| Martin Day | 100 of 184 | 54% | 54 of 120 | 38 of 56 | 8 of 8 | 82 of 164 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pingyuan Liu | 17 of 51 | 33% | 13 of 42 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
| Martin Day | 28 of 56 | 50% | 12 of 33 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Pingyuan Liu | 26 of 55 | 47% | 18 of 44 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Martin Day | 48 of 90 | 53% | 26 of 62 | 19 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | |
| 3 | Pingyuan Liu | 12 of 27 | 44% | 10 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Martin Day | 24 of 38 | 63% | 16 of 25 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Timur Valiev, citing his higher output, better fight IQ, and advantages everywhere on the feet and on the mat. He notes that Valiev was winning his last fight before getting caught, and that Martin Day is 0-3 in the UFC with questionable fight IQ. He expects Valiev to win a dominant decision, but warns that the odds may be too high to bet.
Daniel Levi picks Timur Valiev confidently, citing his dynamic and well-rounded game. He notes Valiev's loss to Trevin Jones was due to gassing out while trying to finish, and expects a more measured approach. He believes Valiev's striking and takedown ability will overwhelm Martin Day.
Valiev is a well-rounded fighter with good kicks and solid wrestling. Day has lost three straight and makes poor decisions, like leaving his neck exposed in submissions. Valiev's striking and grappling should be too much. However, the line is expected to be very high (around -400), so there is no betting value. I expect Valiev to win by decision.
The MMA Guru is very confident in Timur Valiev, calling this a 'lamb for slaughter'. He notes Valiev's high-level competition and only two losses, one a split decision to Chris Gutierrez which he avenged. He believes Martin Day is on a losing streak and took this fight on short notice, predicting a first-round TKO.
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