Career Averages - Beneil Dariush
Career Averages - Carlos Diego Ferreira
Beneil Dariush
Carlos Diego Ferreira
Beneil Dariush - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Quillan Salkilld | 1 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Quillan Salkilld | 1 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Quillan Salkilld | 12 of 19 | 63% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Quillan Salkilld | 12 of 19 | 63% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In the co-main event, perennial contender Dariush (23-7-1; 17-7-1 UFC) will look to slow the rise of the red-hot Aussie Salkilld (11-1; 4-0 UFC), who has racked up quite the highlight reel since graduating from the Contender Series two years ago. Rich Mitchell draws his final referee assignment of the evening. Salkilld is orthodox, Dariush southpaw, and they exchange awkward pawing jabs with their lead hands. Out of nowhere, Dariush blasts Salkilld with a left hand, buckling his knees! Dariush is all over him but Salkilld recovers quickly, nailing Dariush with a left hand on his way in. Dariush shoves Salkilld into the fence, mugs him with a couple of punches and tries to secure a takedown. Salkilld goes to a knee but doesn’t give up the takedown, and he returns to his feet a moment later. Salkilld reverses the position and drives Dariush into the fence, only to be reversed again. Dariush works for a single-leg against the fence, but Salkilld patiently defends. They separate and Salkilld briefly changes levels, then comes back up and blasts him with a right hand.
Dariush is hurt badly, trying to get his hands on the youngster and recover, but Salkilld crushes him with another right hand that drops him. Salkilld follows up with a stream of big lefts until Mitchell interposes himself, awarding the TKO, and the biggest win of his career, to Quillan Salkilld.
The Official Result
Quillan Salkilld def. Beneil Dariush R1 3:29 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, acknowledging that Beneil Dariush is past his prime with a compromised chin and cardio. He believes Salkilld is the better striker and should win, but hopes Dariush doesn't get knocked out badly. He notes that if Salkilld tries to grapple, Dariush might have an advantage.
Big Brady picks Quillan Salkilld to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Beneil Dariush has elite skills but a completely compromised chin, and that Salkilld has power and has knocked out durable opponents. Brady believes Dariush will get touched early and finished, especially given his age and weight cut issues.
Cody picks Salkilld by knockout, citing Dariush's declining durability and history of getting knocked out. He notes Salkilld's power and length, and believes Dariush's chin is no longer reliable.
Daniel Vreeland picks Quillan Salkilld, believing he is catching Beneil Dariush at a good time. He notes Salkilld's well-rounded skills and momentum, while Dariush has shown vulnerability to knockouts and may be past his prime. He expects a competitive fight but sees Salkilld's damage as decisive.
Odds feel very wide; Salkilld is a big favorite but unproven. Dariush is declining but skilled. The fight spread on Dariush (+3.5) and over 1.5 rounds are interesting but not committed. No bet on moneyline; dog or pass.
Lucrative James picks Quillan Salkilld to win via knockout in round one. He cites Beneil Dariush's declining chin and recent knockout losses, and believes the UFC is setting up Salkilld as a prospect. He notes Dariush's weight cut issues and desire to move up to welterweight.
The host picks Salkilld due to his youth, durability, and well-rounded skills. He expects Salkilld to strike first and find a knockout, likely early in round one. The host notes Dariush's chin issues and recent knockout loss, making it hard to trust him despite his grappling prowess.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating Dariush has all the skills but can't take a punch anymore. He highlights Salkilld's power and the fact that Dariush has been knocked out repeatedly, making Salkilld by KO the likely outcome.
The MMA Guru picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his first-round finishing potential and the pattern of younger athletes beating Dariush. He notes Dariush's recent chin issues and believes Salkilld will get a first-round TKO. He acknowledges Salkilld's grappling skills but expects a striking finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 1 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Benoît Saint Denis | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling. He believes Beneil Dariush is aging and was sloppy in his last fight. Despite Dariush's scrambling skills, Angelo thinks BSD's grit and non-stop pace will overcome technique. He notes he would have picked Dariush a few years ago.
Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing Beneil Dariush's compromised chin. He notes Dariush has been knocked out in three of his last four fights, including by Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, and was dropped by Hakeem Dawodu. Brady believes Saint Denis can take a punch better at this stage and predicts a first-round knockout in a war. He acknowledges Dariush's elite anti-grappling and skills but says the chin is the deciding factor.
Cody picks Dariush despite the risk of a first-round knockout. He notes that Dariush has excellent grappling and cardio, and that Saint Denis tends to fade and take damage in longer fights. Cody believes that if Dariush survives the early onslaught, he can take over with his wrestling and pressure. He suggests a live bet if Dariush gets through the first round.
Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and scrambling. He notes that Saint Denis relies on aggression and faith in his conditioning, but Dariush is a fluid control grappler who will stay ahead in scrambles. He warns that Dariush could lose if knocked out, but in any grappling exchange, Dariush wins.
Daniel thinks Dariush is the better overall fighter but his chin is suspect, and Saint Denis has the power and pressure to test it. He notes that Saint Denis is riding high on confidence after dismantling Ruffy, while Dariush looks a fight or two away from retirement. He leans toward Saint Denis finding a knockout, but acknowledges Dariush has paths to victory if he can avoid getting hit clean.
Lucrative James picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Dariush's superior scrambling and counter-grappling. He believes Dariush's durability is a major concern, as he has been knocked out multiple times and is getting older. He thinks BSD's relentless pressure and power will eventually catch Dariush on the feet, even if he struggles to secure takedowns. He predicts a KO victory for BSD, possibly via head kick or in a transition.
Dariush is the better fighter. Saint Denis struggles to get grappling going. Dariush scrambles out of bad positions, keeps Saint Denis on the defensive, and finds a finish in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Cody, preferring to watch the first round before betting due to the knockout risk. He notes that Saint Denis has gassed in past fights and that Dariush's takedown defense is excellent. Paul thinks that if Dariush can avoid early trouble, he can outwork Saint Denis and potentially submit him. He is not fully confident but leans towards Dariush.
The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by TKO in round two. He believes Saint Denis' pressure, clinch work, and body shots will wear down Dariush, who may struggle with the pace. He notes that both are evenly matched on the ground, but Saint Denis has a higher KO percentage and momentum. The Guru expects Saint Denis to break Dariush against the cage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Dariush. He emphasizes that Saint Denis' aggressive, throw-himself-in style will not work against Dariush's relaxed, anticipatory grappling. He notes that Saint Denis lost to Moicano by being overwhelmed, and Dariush is a better grappler than Moicano.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 56 of 107 | 52% | 77 of 131 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:53 |
| Renato Moicano | 1 | 31 of 61 | 50% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Renato Moicano | 1 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 28 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 27 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Renato Moicano | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 56 of 107 | 52% | 30 of 73 | 10 of 15 | 16 of 19 | 47 of 95 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 |
| Renato Moicano | 31 of 61 | 50% | 25 of 52 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 54 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 22 of 46 | 47% | 9 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 10 of 12 | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Renato Moicano | 22 of 42 | 52% | 16 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Renato Moicano | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 26 of 47 | 55% | 13 of 32 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Renato Moicano | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Beneil Dariush because he believes Dariush's grappling and striking are a good matchup against Renato Moicano, who he thinks is too busy with outside commitments to be fully focused. He notes that Dariush is a BJJ world champion and a powerful striker, and he doesn't see Moicano out-grappling him. He also points out that Moicano's takedowns are not clean and he often clinches, while Dariush has shown incredible scrambles against top competition.
Big Brady likes the stylistic matchup for Dariush, who has elite takedown defense and is the better striker with more power. However, he is worried about Dariush coming off back-to-back knockout losses, his age, and potential chin issues. He thinks Moicano doesn't have knockout power but could still hurt Dariush. Brady predicts Dariush will win by knockout, but he is not confident due to the layoff and durability concerns.
Connor picks Dariush but is not confident. He notes that Moicano has never knocked anyone out standing, so Dariush can survive on the feet. He believes Dariush's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Moicano's confidence can waver when things go wrong. However, he acknowledges that Moicano's lightweight run has been unpredictable and that Dariush has been knocked out brutally before.
The host is surprised Moicano is the favorite, believing Dariush's durability and grappling defense will shut down Moicano's approach. He predicts Dariush will land big shots and finish inside the distance, likely by TKO or submission within two and a half rounds.
The host picks Renato Moicano by decision, citing Dariush's long layoff and recent KO losses. He believes Moicano's grappling and striking have improved, and that he will start fast and set the tone. He expects a competitive fight but sees Moicano winning a 29-28 decision.
Zane also picks Dariush but is hesitant. He agrees that Moicano is not a dangerous striker and that Dariush can likely outgrapple him. He notes that Dariush has fought and beaten good grapplers before. However, he acknowledges that Moicano's run has been strange and that he has a tendency to find ways to win even when losing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Beneil Dariush | 1 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Beneil Dariush | 1 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arman Tsarukyan | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Beneil Dariush | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arman Tsarukyan | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Beneil Dariush | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tsarukyan (-278), Dariush (+225)
Round 1
Lightweights close the show in the five-round headliner, where Dariush (22-5-1, 16-5-1 UFC) sets his sights on Tsarukyan (20-3, 7-2 UFC) at 155 pounds. Tsarukyan has rattled off eight victories across his past nine outings.
For more on the American Top Team standout, see “Rivalries: Arman Tsarukyan” in Features
. Smith administers the law and order once the Octagon door closes. They touch gloves to get us started in the final bout of the night. Dariush fires an inside leg kick, eats a jab and then attacks the leg again.
Tsarukyan steps forward with a knee and follows it with a brutal right hook, dropping Dariush where he stands. He then dives in with punches and pounds Dariush unconscious. A signature victory for the young lightweight contender
.
The Official Result
Arman Tsarukyan def. Beneil Dariush—KO (Punches) 1:04 R1
Big Brady picks Arman Tsarukyan, citing youth, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Dariush has been finished in all five of his losses, and that Tsarukyan's relentless pace will break him down in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO, as Tsarukyan's ground and pound and big shots will eventually finish Dariush.
Cody picks Tsarukyan but acknowledges Dariush's skills and path to victory. He notes Dariush's cardio, high ring IQ, and BJJ black belt, but thinks Tsarukyan's speed and youth are decisive. He mentions Tsarukyan's five-round experience and that he's only getting better. He doesn't love the money line but expects Tsarukyan to win, possibly by finish.
Lucrative James picks Beneil Dariush, stating that the line is wide and disrespectful at +240. He believes Dariush can defend takedowns and scramble well, and is the better striker. He notes that Tsarukyan's youth and tenacity could be a factor in a five-round fight, but still sees Dariush as the side. He would go heavy on Dariush if it were a three-round fight.
Tsarukyan has high-level wrestling and improving striking, and he is expected to control the fight with his grappling and striking advantage. However, Dariush is a live underdog with great scrambling and BJJ, making the fight closer than the odds suggest. Tsarukyan is predicted to win by decision over 3.5 rounds, but a small underdog shot on Dariush is also recommended due to value.
Paul thinks Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite due to a sizable speed advantage and good enough grappling to avoid submissions. He notes the line is wide but doesn't see much value at -310. He mentions Tsarukyan's speed in striking and entrances/exits as the biggest difference. He is not lining up to bet it but picks Tsarukyan.
The MMA Guru picks Arman Tsarukyan, believing his youth, wrestling, and striking will be too much for Beneil Dariush. He notes Tsarukyan's reach advantage and ability to win the leg kick battle. He predicts Tsarukyan will break Dariush down and win by TKO in the fourth round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 37 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 37 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 26 of 36 | 72% | 23 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 20 |
| Beneil Dariush | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 26 of 36 | 72% | 23 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 20 |
| Beneil Dariush | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dariush (-140), Oliveira (+120)
Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because a fight many fans and observers circled on their calendars is about to happen. Former champ Oliveira (33-9, 1 NC; 21-9, 1 NC UFC), fresh off losing his belt to Islam Makhachev, is aiming to bounce back from that submission loss. Across from him is the surging Dariush (22-4-1, 16-4-1 UFC), who has strung eight impressive wins together to earn this potential no. 1 contender matchup. While unfortunately only scheduled for three rounds, the two top lightweights might not need that long. Referee Jason Herzog earns the honor of officiating this co-main attraction, and the combatants respectfully bump fists first. Oliveira reaches out with a front kick, and as he does, Dariush kicks his lead leg. Oliveira walks straight into the fire, throwing a head kick and shaking Dariush up, and the two trade furious strikes. The two wind up clashing together, chest to chest, and Oliveira looks to lift Dariush and dump him to the mat but ends up falling to his back. Dariush sits in the close guard and lands a few punches, and Oliveira actively pushes off the chest and uses upkicks. Oliveira attacks with hammerfists while Dariush is striking him from above, and the blows from Dariush are heavier. Oliveira pursues a leglock, and he hooks Dariush’ leg beneath his armpit. Dariush stands up, and he slips his foot out and meanders back into Oliveira’s guard. Dariush swings hard down at his opponent, and he punches the floor a few times with Oliveira swaying back and forth. Oliveira kicks off with upkicks again, and Dariush settles to return to the closed guard, smacking the Brazilian with hammerfists and punches. Dariush avoids any traps, but Oliveira bursts back to his feet and knees his man in the chest. Oliveira abandons the clinch and boots Dariush in the head. Dariush is stung from that and a subsequent left hand, and he knocks Dariush to his knees with a clubbing right hand behind the ear. Dariush drops to go after a takedown, and when that fails, he rolls with desperation with for some kind of leglock. “Do Bronx” pushes right past it and slams his fists down on Dariush again and again. Dariush tries to turn to his side, but his bell is rung and Oliveira is not about to let him off the hook. The punches continue to mount for the Brazilian, who will not stop until Herzog pulls him off. As he keeps beating down the Kings MMA fighter, Herzog has no choice but to wave the fight off. The former champ peels off to jump atop the cage and soak it in as the deafening crowd showers him with cheers and affection. Oliveira climbs back down to embrace his fallen foe, and then he leaps out of the cage to go hug someone in the crowd. This is a statement performance for Oliveira, who claims his 20th finish as a UFC fighter, which adds to his own record. Lightweights will not likely going to line up wanting to face him next, and he has just one goal in mind: he wants his belt back, calling out Islam Makhachev and offering to the UFC brass that he will fight Makhachev on his home soil.
The Official Result
Charles Oliveira def. Beneil Dariush R1 4:10 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Beneil Dariush, having placed 1.5 units on him at -125. He argues that Dariush is the better wrestler and grappler, and that his no-gi BJJ world championship credentials give him an edge. He believes Dariush can avoid Charles Oliveira's submission threats by staying controlled and not creating scrambles. He thinks Dariush's power and wrestling will be key.
Big Brady picks Beneil Dariush to finish Charles Oliveira in the first round. He notes that Dariush has the wrestling to dictate where the fight goes and has heavy hands. Oliveira is hittable and has been dropped in recent fights. Dariush's power and grappling should overwhelm Oliveira early. He predicts a knockdown followed by a submission or TKO.
Cody picks Beneil Dariush despite being a fan of Oliveira. He argues that Dariush is a thinking man's fighter with high ring IQ, underrated power, and a nasty liver kick. He notes that Oliveira's reckless approach and durability issues (gets knocked down often) play into Dariush's precision. He also believes Dariush's wrestling and BJJ are good enough to grapple with Oliveira, and he can win standing or on the ground. He expects the fight to end inside the distance.
Connor picks Dariush confidently, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He believes Dariush can out-grapple Oliveira and that Oliveira's submission threat is overrated. He notes that Dariush is willing to grapple and has the skills to neutralize Oliveira's guard. However, he acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's power and chaos.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush in a coin-toss fight, citing momentum and Dariush's time to get a title shot. He notes that Dariush has paid his dues and is on a win streak, while Oliveira has been dropped in his last three fights. He believes Dariush will not be afraid to follow Oliveira to the ground, unlike previous opponents, and that Dariush's calm, pressure-based Jiu-Jitsu can neutralize Oliveira's non-stop attacking style. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's offensive potency and the possibility of Dariush getting hurt.
James picks Beneil Dariush, believing Oliveira's time at the top is done. He thinks Dariush's distance control with his left kick and technical striking can make Oliveira look amateur on the feet, similar to how Islam Makhachev did. He also believes Dariush can get takedowns and has elite jiu-jitsu to avoid submissions. However, he notes Dariush's chin is vulnerable and he could be dragged into a brawl, where Oliveira has an edge. James sees Dariush winning by decision or submission, and considers the moneyline value good.
Dariush has a well-rounded game with improved striking and excellent defensive grappling. Oliveira is dangerous everywhere but has shown vulnerability to pressure and wrestling. Dariush's ability to stuff takedowns and land on the feet should lead to a finish, likely by KO. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play given both fighters' finishing rates.
Paul leans toward Dariush, citing his technical striking and smart approach. He thinks Oliveira could do crazy things early, but once Dariush susses out the situation, he will take over and find his advantage. Paul is not betting this fight but is interested in a PrizePicks play on under 1.5 takedowns for Dariush, reasoning that Dariush may not want to go to the ground with Oliveira.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Charles Oliveira, despite wanting Oliveira to win. He notes Dariush's consistent recent performances, great takedown defense, and improving hands. He worries about Oliveira's tendency to get dropped and his injury layoff. He believes Dariush can control where the fight goes and may finish or win a decision.
Zane also picks Dariush, emphasizing that if Dariush can scramble with Oliveira on the ground, he can win. He notes that Dariush's defensive wrestling and scrambling were impressive against Gamrot and Ferreira. He acknowledges the danger of Oliveira's striking but believes Dariush's grappling advantage is key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 1 | 59 of 130 | 45% | 67 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 38 of 86 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 13 of 17 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 31 of 67 | 46% | 32 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 15 of 47 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 1 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 22 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 59 of 130 | 45% | 35 of 100 | 15 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 52 of 121 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 33 of 81 | 40% | 22 of 67 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 76 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 9 of 26 | 34% | 2 of 16 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 13 | 69% | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 31 of 67 | 46% | 19 of 53 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 15 of 47 | 31% | 9 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 19 of 37 | 51% | 14 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 9 of 21 | 42% | 5 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gamrot (-195), Dariush (+165)
Round 1
Like every other main card tilt, this lightweight affair pitting Dariush (21-4-1, 15-4-1 UFC) against Gamrot (21-1, 1 NC; 4-1 UFC) has nearly immediate championship implications, as the victor could very likely be next in line for the winner of the headliner a few fights from now. Before they can look ahead, they have to get past the other, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Movahedi. The two bump fists, and after a few seconds to find their feet in the cage, Dariush slings a pair of quick kicks. Dariush rushes forward with a high kick, and Gamrot attacks for a takedown. A furious scramble ensues, and Gamrot lowers Dariush down but finds himself in leglock danger. Dariush attempts to sweep with this, but the two end up back on their feet. Gamrot pushes him to the wall, but he releases his foe and they reset. The right ear of Gamrot is split, and it starts to bleed, but he pays it no mind. Dariush attacks with a few low kicks, and Gamrot catches a body kick that follows and dumps Dariush to the mat. Dariush pursues a leglock as soon as they hit the ground, and he considers a heel hook but is on the wrong side without the right leverage to lock it down. “Gamer” pulls his leg out and stands up, and Dariush follows him. Gamrot stays tightly pressed to his opponent, before releasing him and backing off. An odd takedown entry allows Gamrot to get his hands on Dariush and drag the fight down, but Dariush defends with an awkward position to stop it. Dariush implores the referee to break them up, so Gamrot answers this by taking Dariush’s legs out beneath him. The Polish fighter cannot keep Dariush down, so he backs off and lets Dariush kick him in the side. On the kick, Gamrot grabs it, and he gives a shove but cannot ground Dariush this time. They trade kicks, and Gamrot slips on the way out before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Round 2
Sherdog encountered some technical difficulties at the beginning of this round, and we apologize for the inconvenience. We resume the action at the beginning of Round 2. The lightweights touch ‘em up, and Gamrot leans forward into a punch and has a strange reaction to it, but it could have been from a possible takedown setup. Gamrot resets and crashes forward for an authentic try, and Dariush tosses him aside and lets Gamrot get his footing again. Dariush kicks the body and gets punched in the head for his effort, and Gamrot counters another kick with an overhand right. Dariush pushes a jab out, and he sets up a high kick that glances off the shoulder. The lightweights clash legs at the same time, and Dariush walks forward to engage only to get sniped with a jab. Gamrot dives down to the ankle to take the fight down, and Dariush pulls his leg away and backs away. Dariush intercepts his opponent with a stern knee, and he targets the body with his shin as his legs continue to be his best weapon. A Gamrot takedown is stuffed, and Dariush makes him pay by chopping at his lead leg. The single strikes come back and forth, and Gamrot darts forward to throw a few in a bundle, but Dariush slips and rips with a left hand. The former KSW champ slowly moves forward without pulling the trigger, and he is forced to block a high kick that rolls off his shoulder. Dariush scoops up an uppercut and gets backed off with an overhand right, and Gamrot blitzes him with a knee. Gamrot sprints at his foe for one final takedown, and the scramble that ensues ends the round with both men on their seats.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 3
The top lightweights meet in the middle and offer half-hearted gloved touch that is more of a jab, and Gamrot claims the center of the cage. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown entry, but the veteran savvy of Dariush smoothly flows with the attempt and forces Gamrot to release his grip and stand back up. Dariush lets him have it with a flush kick to the body, and he lets go with a subsequent pair of kicks to the upper thigh. As Gamrot replies with a head kick try, Dariush pops him with a right hook. Gamrot comes up short with another high kick, and Dariush sees his strikes coming and is seemingly one step ahead of the offense. Dariush lifts up a knee that bounces off the midsection when Gamrot strides forward, and Gamrot continues to give chase no matter what he absorbs. The crowd appears distracted with the drama outside the cage, and they rain down a shower of boos not targeting the fighters but at that individual or individuals. As they are paying attention to something out of the cage, Gamrot leaps forward to snatch up Dariush’s lead leg and look for a takedown, but the attempt fails and Dariush gains his balance and hops away. Gamrot loops a right hand over the top, but it is one-and-done when Dariush backpedals. Dariush prepares a left-hand counter for when Gamrot walks into his range, and he times a spectacular blow that knocks Gamrot clean off his feet. The recoverability of Gamrot is solid, as he somersaults back and gets right back into action following the flash knockdown. Gamrot punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Dariush smoothly follows him all the way through to get to his knees and back up without spending much time on his back. The fight comes to an end with one final exchange of alternating punches, and the lightweights hug it out after the bell sounds. It remains to be seen if the victor here has done enough to earn a crack at the triumphant man of the main event, a shot which also hinges on the result of that match itself.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (29-28 Dariush)
The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot confidently, stating he is better everywhere than Dariush. He highlights Gamrot's wrestling, power, cardio, and pace, and notes that Dariush has been waiting for a title shot while Gamrot has been active. He has 2 units on Gamrot at -185 and expects the line to move.
Big Brady picks Gamrot to win by knockout in the second round. He questions Dariush's chin (three knockout losses) and believes Gamrot's volume and deceptive power will catch him. He expects the fight to play out mostly on the feet, with Gamrot dictating the range. He notes Dariush's striking is underrated but trusts Gamrot to land a finishing shot.
Cody thinks Gamrot is the pick, noting his wrestling pedigree and takedown defense. He believes Gamrot's pressure and pace will be key, and that Dariush may struggle with cardio. Cody acknowledges Dariush is a live underdog but feels Gamrot is getting more comfortable and should put on a clean performance. He is not super high on Gamrot this week because Dariush could spoil.
Connor picks Gamrot, citing his incredible pace and cardio, which he believes will wear down Dariush over three rounds. He notes that Dariush often gasses after going berserk, and Gamrot's ability to keep up high-intensity scrambles will exploit that. However, he acknowledges that Dariush could win early if he lands a big shot or imposes his grappling.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mateusz Gamrot. He praises Gamrot's unorthodox low single leg takedown and relentless pressure, noting he attempted 21 takedowns against Arman Tsarukyan. Levi is concerned about Dariush's recent broken ankle and whether he will be fully recovered. He thinks Dariush has the better striking, especially body kicks, but worries that Gamrot's wrestling and scrambling could overwhelm Dariush over three rounds. Levi does not bet this fight.
Gamrot has shown he can grapple with high-level fighters like Arman Tsarukyan. Dariush's reckless style may leave him open to counters. Gamrot is the cleaner striker and has cardio advantage. The under 2.5 at +160 or Gamrot inside the distance at +250 are intriguing. A one-unit shot on the under is the play.
Paul is torn but leans Gamrot, citing that wrestling may be negated in the big cage and that Gamrot has speed and grappling advantages. He mentions Dariush's chin issues from the past and that Gamrot's power could be a factor. Paul is not sure about betting but picks Gamrot.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Beneil Dariush. He questions the quality of Dariush's wins (e.g., Ferguson) and notes Dariush's long layoff due to a broken leg. He believes Gamrot's youth, momentum, and grappling will overwhelm Dariush, predicting a decision win with some dangerous moments.
Zane picks Dariush, arguing that Dariush's well-rounded game and ability to control the fight early will give him an edge. He notes that Dariush is a hell of a grappler and can match Gamrot's wrestling, and that Gamrot's takedowns don't lead to control. He admits it's a close fight and that Dariush's tendency to get hurt is a concern, but he thinks Dariush can win a decision or finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 76 of 142 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 12:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 32 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 26 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 4:04 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 15 of 34 | 44% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 10 |
| Tony Ferguson | 23 of 55 | 41% | 16 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Tony Ferguson | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Tony Ferguson | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 6 of 12 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Tony Ferguson | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Up next is the long-awaited co-main event, which sees Ferguson (25-5, 15-3 UFC) try to snap the first losing streak of his career against the surging Dariush (20-4-1, 14-4-1 UFC). Hold on to your hats, this one is about to get crazy. Referee Mike Beltran clocks them in and they do not touch gloves, preferring to let their hands settle things instead. Ferguson stutter-steps forward into a left hand, but he is no worse for wear from it. Dariush kicks across Ferguson’s leg to his surprise, and he darts in with a left hook that falls short. Dariush charges in to attack, and Ferguson eats a few shots but is slick and moving everywhere to avoid the shots. Dariush scores another unusual leg kick to Ferguson’s rear leg, and Dariush is ready to brawl and throws hands to catch Ferguson off-guard. Dariush presses forward, and he hits a body lock takedown to plant Ferguson on his back. Ferguson kicks him off, scores an upkick, and pulls a high rubber guard when Dariush climbs back down. Dariush ignores it and pushes through to land a few punches to the body, but “El Cucuy” is holding him tight and elbowing him on the side of the head a few times. Ferguson looks to set up a triangle choke, but when that fails, he recovers his guard. Dariush sits up to start nailing Ferguson with punches and elbows, and Ferguson takes them on the chin all while continuing to hack back with elbows. Ferguson rolls over to nearly sweep Dariush, but he is pushed back over and finds himself surrendering half guard. Dariush steps over to set up an arm-triangle choke, and Ferguson looks to roll through and attack with an armbar as he pushes off the fence. Dariush sees it coming and flows with him, where he slides into Ferguson’s butterfly guard. The Kings MMA fighter resecures half guard, and he steps over to the other side to land some ground-and-pound. When Dariush looks to congratulate him for the round, Ferguson pushes him away to go back to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 2
The second round begins with Ferguson taking the center of the cage, and Dariush kicks his lead leg. Ferguson falls down Dariush looks to take him down. Instead of succumbing to a bad position, Ferguson attacks a brabo choke from his back against the wall. Dariush stays patient and unconcerned with the submission until Ferguson bails on it, where he looks to pull Ferguson’s legs out from beneath him. Dariush pulls him off the fence to put Ferguson flat on his back, and Dariush in full guard starts slugging away at Ferguson. Dariush ignores Ferguson’s flailing on his back to smash his fists on Ferguson’s head, and elbows and punches land until Ferguson tries to push him away. Dariush stays committed to keeping Ferguson grounded, and Ferguson attacks with a submission to get Dariush to back off. Ferguson sweeps Dariush in a wild scramble, and Dariush pulls him back down to attack a heel hook. Ferguson is in serious agony, and he grimaces but does not yell out and instead kicks Dariush in the chest to break the grip. As Dariush loosens the grip, he climbs over on top. Dariush steps into half guard, where he threatens with an arm-triangle choke but is more intent on smothering Ferguson’s face with his chest. Ferguson elbows him a few times, but Dariush does not care as he stays pressed heavy to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 3
Ferguson’s leg is severely compromised from the heel hook, and he tries to use his tricky movement but does not have his wheels about him. Dariush walks through any strikes to grab hold of Ferguson, and “El Cucuy” latches on to a guillotine choke. Dariush lifts him up and slams him down, where he breaks the grip and gains an advantageous position. The two end up in a north-south position as Ferguson kicks off the fence, but Dariush expertly traverses the guard to try to get side control. The crowd chants “stand them up,” and these chants echo through the Toyota Center, Beltran asks the fighters to keep moving. Dariush pulls on his adversary to try to get Ferguson’s legs away from the cage, and the two are in a grappling stalemate with no strikes thrown of any kind. Dariush grinds his elbow on Ferguson’s chin, and Ferguson holds on tight but is not doing anything of note either. This odd north-south posture continues as fans grow more restless, and Dariush hops over to side control. Ferguson looks to set up an arm-triangle choke from his back like Maurice Greene pulled off on Gian Villante, but Dariush breaks the grip and hops over on top. Ferguson rolls through and the two get back to their north-south with Ferguson’s feet on the cage, and Dariush spins through to try to land strikes. Ferguson closes his guard and Dariush lands a few short punches to the body. Dariush finishes the fight with a few punches from above, and Ferguson answers with elbows to end this disappointing yet one-sided lightweight clash.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Tony Ferguson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Ferguson has taken massive damage and looks diminished. Dariush is a BJJ black belt with good striking and takedowns. He can implement a similar game plan to Oliveira: take Ferguson down and control him. Ferguson is tough to finish, so I expect a decision win for Dariush.
Cody also picks Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline and poor game plans. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging and he hasn't knocked anyone out in years. Cody believes Dariush is a thinking man's fighter who will use takedowns and top control to win. He points out that Ferguson's takedown defense is weak and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Cody expects Dariush to win the first round and then secure a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline since his knee injury and the Gaethje fight. He notes Dariush's six-fight win streak, knockout power, and jiu-jitsu credentials, and believes Dariush can mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Levi is concerned about Dariush's tendency to leave openings and gas, but thinks Ferguson's durability and chin have diminished. He expects Dariush to dominate and win via decision or late stoppage.
The host picks Dariush but is not confident, noting Ferguson's chaotic style could cause problems. He thinks Dariush should have a grappling advantage and grind out a decision, but worries about Ferguson's ability to create volatility. He says he is not running to the betting window on Dariush.
Paul picks Dariush, citing Ferguson's decline. He notes that Ferguson has lost to elite guys and looked abysmal in his last two fights. Paul believes Dariush's wrestling and game planning will be key, as he can take Ferguson down and neutralize him, similar to what Oliveira did. He mentions that Ferguson's takedown defense is poor and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Paul expects Dariush to win by decision, using takedowns to control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age and recent decline. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging poorly and that Dariush thrives under chaos, which is key against Ferguson. He predicts Dariush will control the fight with grappling and win a unanimous decision 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 54 of 121 | 44% | 74 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 62 of 116 | 53% | 74 of 132 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 7:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 32 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 30 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 18 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 19 of 58 | 32% | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:36 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 24 of 44 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 54 of 121 | 44% | 43 of 104 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 45 of 109 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 62 of 116 | 53% | 46 of 98 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 51 of 93 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 21 of 39 | 53% | 17 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 29 of 51 | 56% | 24 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 11 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 10 of 22 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 7 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 19 of 58 | 32% | 16 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 23 of 43 | 53% | 15 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady slightly edges Carlos Diego Ferreira, citing his durability and output advantage. He notes that Dariush has been knocked out three times and Ferreira is not a knockout artist, but Ferreira's volume could be key. He expects a very close decision and admits it's a coin-flip fight.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, noting his wrestling and top control advantage. He acknowledges Ferreira's improved boxing and footwork, but believes Dariush's grappling and ability to avoid submissions will be key. He mentions Dariush's past win over Ferreira and his experience against high-level grapplers.
Ferreira has transformed his game since joining Fortis MMA, showing improved striking, pace, and pressure. He averages 283 strikes thrown per fight and has great cardio. His takedown defense has improved, and he gets back to his feet quickly. Dariush has been in firefights recently and may struggle with Ferreira's constant forward pressure. Ferreira's durability and chin are solid. I expect Ferreira to push the pace, outwork Dariush, and win a decision. The line is fair and Ferreira is the better fighter now.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush in a close fight, noting the odds should be 50-50. He praises Dariush's youth, activity, and improving stand-up, citing his performance against Edson Barboza. He questions Ferreira's wins over aging opponents and thinks Dariush's grappling will keep him safe. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Carlos Diego Ferreira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 23 of 98 | 23% | 23 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 11 of 53 | 20% | 11 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 1 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 12 of 45 | 26% | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 30 of 75 | 40% | 22 of 63 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 23 of 98 | 23% | 8 of 56 | 11 of 35 | 4 of 7 | 23 of 96 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 12 of 36 | 33% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 11 of 53 | 20% | 3 of 29 | 6 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 18 of 39 | 46% | 15 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 12 of 45 | 26% | 5 of 27 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-140); Ferreira (+115)
Round 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Ferreira takes the center of the cage in the early going. Hernandez is attacking with leg kicks. A solid jab lands for Hernandez. Ferreira catches a kick to the body and attempts to counter. Ferreira launches a big right hand and Hernandez circles away. A right hand makes Ferreira stumble briefly. Hernandez jabs and Ferreira lands a body kick. Another jab for Hernandez. Ferreira lands a body kick. Lots of movement for Hernandez which is making it difficult for Ferreria to find his range. A front kick to the body lands for Ferreira. They trade and Ferreira ends the exchange with a knee. A straight lands for Hernandez. Ferreira continues to walk Hernandez down. Ferreira lands a front kick to the body. A close opening round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Round 2
Hernandez kicks the body. Ferreira catches and attempts to counter. He gets poked in the eye in the process and time is called. Ferreira doesn’t need much time to recover. A counter left lands clean for Ferreira in an exchnage. Ferreira lands a body kick as Hernandez moves forward. Ferreira just misses on a head kick. A solid right gets through for Hernandez. Ferreira blocks a hard body kick. Hernandez continues his movement based approach, but he’s not landing much. Another straight shot lands for Hernandez. A left hook and a body kick connect for Ferreira. Ferreirra presses forward and
Hernandez drops him with a perfectly-timed counter right hand to the temple. Smelling blood, Hernandez pounces and unleashes a hailstorm of violent ground-and-pound. Rexroad gives Ferreira plenty of leeway — perhaps too much — but after about eight unanswered punches, the fight is mercifully called.
That’s a resounding victory for the San Antonio native, who has won four consecutive Octagon appearances. Ferreira ends the fight with a nasty hematoma on the side of his head.
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Diego Ferreira via TKO (Punches) R2 3:46
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, noting he is hitting his stride lately, explosive, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He says this feels like a great fight for Hernandez, fighting an older guy at home (San Antonio). His only concern is that Hernandez cuts easily, which could affect judging. He says if the odds are reasonable, he will bet on him.
Big Brady leans toward Ferreira because Hernandez fades late in fights. He notes Hernandez is explosive early but has poor cardio and was put together on short notice. Ferreira is durable and has finished fights late. He predicts Ferreira wins by third-round knockout after weathering an early storm.
Connor picks Ferreira, emphasizing that Hernandez's inability to handle pressure will be exploited. He notes that Ferreira is a dangerous grappler and powerful striker, and Hernandez's wrestling won't be an easy out. Connor acknowledges Ferreira's age but says if not for age, he would pick Ferreira without question.
Hernandez is making a quick turnaround, but the host believes he is up against it. He expects Ferreira to stave off Hernandez's early power and explosivity, then wear him down with pace, pressure, and grappling, winning on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira as an underdog, believing he will 'fraud check' Alexander Hernandez. He highlights Ferreira's win over Michael Johnson and competitive fights with Gamrot and Rebecki. He argues Hernandez struggles against veteran fighters and that Ferreira is a step above Hernandez's previous opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing his experience, aggressive inclination, and power. He notes that Hernandez is allergic to pressure and struggles when backed up, while Ferreira will pressure him. Zane acknowledges Ferreira's age (40) but believes his style and dangerous grappling will neutralize Hernandez's wrestling and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.
Angelo sees Ferreira as more dangerous and durable at this point, with more ways to win. He notes Green is a cleaner striker but Ferreira has power and BJJ. He is surprised Ferreira is almost a 2-to-1 favorite, as the fight feels closer on paper. He picks Ferreira but is not sure what to do with betting, possibly looking at the over 1.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Diego Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is very worried about King Green's decline, citing the brutal Jalin Turner stoppage, his age (38), and poor recent performances. He notes Green has taken a lot of damage and doesn't look the same. In contrast, Ferreira is older but has less tread on the tires, barely fights, and still performs at a high level. He mentions Ferreira's power, citing knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rębecki, and thinks he can finish Green by any method.
The Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Bobby Green, citing Ferreira's underrated skills and power. He believes Green is prone to getting knocked out, especially in big spots, and that Ferreira can finish him. The Guru notes Ferreira's close split decision with Beneil Dariush and his knockout of Michael Johnson. He predicts Green will have a decent first round but then get caught in the second or third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 56 of 98 | 57% | 195 of 269 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 10:50 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 41 of 61 | 67% | 84 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 43 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 27 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 64 of 90 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 88 of 125 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 56 of 98 | 57% | 51 of 91 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 47 | 7 of 8 | 30 of 43 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 41 of 61 | 67% | 31 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 51 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 21 of 31 | 67% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 11 of 16 | 68% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 21 of 39 | 53% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 21 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 17 of 28 | 60% | 15 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 14 of 28 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 14 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 13 of 17 | 76% | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-258), Ferreira (+210)
Round 1
A generational gap separates the two lightweights about to set foot in the cage, with the fighters 10 years apart. Dawson (22-2-1, 10-1-1 UFC) is the far younger at 30, while Ferreira (19-5, 10-5 UFC) is the kind of guy who wants to get punched in the face for his 40th birthday. If he wins, one hopes that commentator Joe Rogan will urge the crowd to sing to him, but it is an uphill battle to get to that point. The third man in the Octagon for this fringe 155-pound contender pairing is referee Frank Trigg, who sits back as the fighters respectfully touch gloves. Dawson engages in assuming the center of the cage, and his first strike is a spinning back fist that buzzes past his foe. Ferreira moves to the side, aims a low kick, and chants for “USA” come down in support of Dawson. That excites him to the point of hurling a spinning wheel kick that partially lands, and he ignores any counter to spin and plant his foot on Ferreira’s ribcage. Dawson steps in with a right hand, and after connecting with a few punches, he spins with another back kick. Ferreira answers him with a surprisingly effective calf kick, and he goes to it again only to get caught with a pair of overhand rights. Ferreira returns fire with punches until Dawson shoots in on his hips and takes him to the canvas. Ferreira stands back up and leans against the fence, and he gets kneed legally in the face as he has his hands on the mat but no knees. Ferreira lowers himself to the ground to scramble and get up, and Dawson puts him in a precarious position by holding Ferreira’s leg in the air. With Ferreira leaned over and one hand on the ground, Dawson kicks him upside the head twice in what are now legal blows, and Ferreira panics and drops to the ground. Dawson looks to assume top control, and Ferreira hand-fights to keep Dawson from shifting around to take his back. When Ferreira turns to escape, Dawson follows him over and flattens him out while in full guard. Dawson bucks, sits up and drills the Brazilian with a solid left hand, before laying flat to smother. Ferreira pushes off to force Dawson to stand, and he belts “KGD” in the face with an upkick that appears to hurt him. Dawson lowers himself into the guard as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 2
The fighters bump fists to get going, and Ferreira leads the dance with a front kick. Ferreira follows it with a flurry of punches to get Dawson’s attention, and his forward momentum allows him to take Dawson off his feet. Ferreira attempts a leglock from a strange angle, and he attempts to take Dawson’s back but slides off. Dawson stands up and misses with a back fist, and the two walk towards one another and starting swinging heavy leather. Ferreira catches Dawson with a huge right hand, only to get taken off his feet with an easy takedown. Dawson postures up to strike, exerting full pressure on his foe while dragging things to a crawl. The audience responds in kind, not thrilled by the grind being embraced. When Ferreira sits up against the fence, Dawson sucks his hips out and lays into him with ground-and-pound. Dawson continues to force Ferreira flat on his back, unleashing strikes any time he can find an opening. When Ferreira raises his legs up for a possible choke attempt, Dawson pushes past it and smashes into the Brazilian with a crushing elbow. A second comes shortly thereafter, authoring a loud clacking sound from the elbow connecting with some face bone. The ground strikes continue as the round comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 3
At the very first second of the round, Dawson rushes for a takedown. Ferreira fights off the first attempt, and he scrambles to set up an unorthodox leglock when Dawson drags him down. The submission is nowhere to be found, and Dawson rolls him over to his back and gets in the guard. Dawson beats down on Ferreira slowly and methodically, and suddenly, Trigg tells them to get back to their feet and stands them up without a warning. This lights a fire under Ferreira’s backside, who swings for the bleachers. Dawson does the same, and he sets Ferreira to a knee with a huge right hand. Dawson tackles Ferreira to the floor, and he gets right to it with body shots and the occasional one up to the head. Trigg almost immediately calls for more action, and Dawson proves this by posturing up to rain down heavy blows. Ferreira closes his guard and locks Dawson down in hopes of a standup, but Dawson pulls through it and starts pummeling the Brazilian with his fists. The audience is not happy about Dawson’s ground assault, and Dawson shuts them up for a moment by standing up and beating Ferreira down with high-amplitude punches. Dawson backs off Trigg by connecting with further firepower, and Ferreira manages to sit up but gives up his back. Dawson gladly takes it and wraps up the body triangle, his knees red and layers of skin ripped off from his takedown efforts. With seconds to spare, “KGD” attempts a rear-naked choke, but there is not enough time to wrap it up. Time elapses, and the fighters hug it out. This makes it five decisions in a row to start off this event.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Diego Ferreira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Grant Dawson to win, expecting his relentless wrestling and control to be effective. However, he plans to bet on Diego Ferreira via 'inside the distance decision no action' prop, believing Ferreira is tough enough to avoid being finished and could potentially finish Dawson. He acknowledges Dawson's boring style but respects his wrestling.
Cody picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant. He acknowledges Dawson's excellent wrestling and cardio, but notes his chin has been exposed (Bobby Green KO, Ricky Glenn draw). Dawson has taken down strong wrestlers like Mark Madsen and Ismagulov. Ferreira is a dangerous striker and BJJ black belt who has been taken down many times but often survives. Cody believes Dawson's wrestling will be the difference, but Ferreira's power and submission threat make it risky. He moves Dawson down in his parlay.
Daniel picks Ferreira, citing his elite Jiu-Jitsu and striking advantage. He notes that Dawson is one-dimensional and has been knocked out before. Daniel is concerned about Ferreira's age (40) but thinks his ground game and striking are superior. He mentions that Dawson's losses are exciting because he gets knocked out, and Ferreira could exploit Dawson's holes.
The host points out Ferreira turns 40 on fight day and expects him to show decline. Dawson is a streaking contender who should implement his wrestling, break down Ferreira, and finish him in the second or third round.
Paul picks Ferreira as an underdog. He notes that Ferreira is a more refined striker with knockout power and a BJJ black belt, giving him multiple paths to victory. Paul points out that Dawson has been knocked out and has cardio issues in later rounds. Ferreira has shown he can survive takedowns and submit opponents. Paul believes Ferreira's chaotic striking and opportunistic submissions will cause problems for Dawson, and at plus money, he sees value.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira over Grant Dawson. He highlights Ferreira's scrambling ability against elite grapplers like Gamrot and Dariush, and his power in his hands with nasty knockout ability. He notes Ferreira's recent momentum, including a win over Rebecki and a knockout of Michael Johnson. He worries about Dawson if he can't get his grappling going, and believes Ferreira will win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 123 of 241 | 51% | 151 of 272 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 1 | 52 of 137 | 37% | 60 of 146 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 21 of 65 | 32% | 28 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 1 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 35 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 40 of 79 | 50% | 49 of 88 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 16 of 48 | 33% | 19 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 3 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 62 of 97 | 63% | 74 of 111 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 6 of 29 | 20% | 6 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 123 of 241 | 51% | 94 of 189 | 28 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 94 of 203 | 0 of 1 | 29 of 37 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 52 of 137 | 37% | 34 of 109 | 11 of 21 | 7 of 7 | 46 of 129 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 21 of 65 | 32% | 15 of 51 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 30 of 60 | 50% | 21 of 51 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 40 of 79 | 50% | 31 of 61 | 8 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 16 of 48 | 33% | 12 of 39 | 1 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 62 of 97 | 63% | 48 of 77 | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 35 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 6 of 29 | 20% | 1 of 19 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-310), Ferreira (+250)
Round 1
Momentum is a powerful tool. Once on a solid six-fight win streak, Ferreira (18-5, 9-5 UFC) has since dropped three of four and now stares down his 40th birthday at the beginning of next year. Eight years younger and with his own 16-fight victorious stretch in tow, Rebecki (19-1, 3-0 UFC) has it going for him. Whether the torch is passed or the older man can get it done, referee Gary Copeland will keep tabs on the lightweight contest. The sportsmen gladly bump their fists together in eager anticipation of inflicting bodily harm on one another. Rebecki surges forward immediately, throwing caution to the wind swinging fists. Ferreira stays composed and prods out with front kicks, and he dips away from the power shots that fly past him. Rebecki continues attacking relentlessly, and he knocks Ferreira to his seat momentarily courtesy of fierce right hand. The Brazilian jumps right back up, and he keeps Rebecki honest with front kicks and a solid body kick. Ferreira lands with a left and a right, and a head kick gets Rebecki’s attention. He throws another high kick, and Rebecki crowds him more. Ferreira sneaks in a left hand as Rebecki walks forward with impunity, only to be met with three flush shots on the jaw. Rebecki strings three punches together, and Ferreira attacks the body with his foot. Ferreira comes up short on a head kick, and Rebecki buzzes his hair with an overhand right. The two take turns blasting one another, and Rebecki gets the better of an exchange with a solid right hand that appears to hurt the Brazilian. Ferreira fires back with bad intentions, and his head kick comes increasingly close to landing cleanly. Rebecki jabs his way into offense, and Ferreira answers them with a heavy body kick that makes Rebecki shake his head. Rebecki leans forward and when he attacks, his head smacks into Ferreira’s. Ferreira wipes his head, and Copeland notes the head clash. Rebecki unloads a left hand that knocks Ferreira clean off his feet, and he dives down into the guard in hopes of finishing the job. Rebecki gets slowed down by the active guard of his opponent, and he cannot pass guard or land much of note while Ferreira clears his head. The round ends with Rebecki on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Round 2
The fighters tap hands together to open the round, and Rebecki says hello with a body kick and a powerful left hand. Ferreira drops to the mat, and he bounces back up and stings Rebecki with a left hook of his own. The Polish fighter has a foot bounce off the cup when kicking, and he apologizes as Ferreira signals he is ok. Rebecki ducks a right hand and shoots with a double, driving through the hips and putting Ferreira on his back. Ferreira hits the mat and threatens with a triangle choke, and his legs allow him to sweep and throw Rebecki off of him. Rebecki loads up on a big left hand that misses the mark, and Ferreira follows him with three punches up top while Rebecki’s eyes are swelling up fast. Ferreira jabs and absorbs a left hand on the nose that makes him tweak it to check if it is damaged. Rebecki lurches forward with a series of rangy punches, and he gets backed off as a high kick whizzes past his head. Rebecki bulldozes forward in pursuit of a takedown, and he manages to put the Brazilian on his seat for a moment. Ferreira climbs back up and works his jab, and he slips the most dangerous blows coming at him so that he can counter with three of his own. Ferreira flicks out jabs and a head kick, and he backs the Polish fighter off with body shots chained into punches in the head. The jab has split open the side of Rebecki’s eye, and Ferreira releases a number of punches to the swelling and bloody face. Copeland calls time and brings in the doctor, and Rebecki is cleared quickly and gets back to it. Ferreira drills his man in the head with a combination of punches ending with a head kick, and Rebecki catches it and tackles Ferriera to the floor. Ferreira scrambles to work his way up, and he turns the tables and drags Rebecki down from behind. The Brazilian climbs into full mount and he sits down on an arm-triangle choke, but time expires before he can get the tap.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Round 3
The lightweights touch ‘em up to begin, and Ferreira leads the dance with a few punches up top and a front kick. Rebecki swings back, and Ferreira is the fresher and more accurate man of the two as he lands cleaner. Ferreira looks for his jab and kicks the body, and he checks Rebecki’s chin with a one-two. Ferreira powers ahead with another short combo, and he lines up several head kicks that get blocked but have an impact. Rebecki loads up on a left hand, and Ferreira stands firm and lets him have it with a swarm of punches that stagger him. Rebecki takes a breath and kicks the lead leg, and he gets driven back with a straight right hand. Ferreira times Rebecki ducking down for a level change with an uppercut, and he chews up the midsection with power shots. Ferreira walks through power punches from the Polish fighter, and he gets taken down and turns the corner to stand back up. Ferreira goes after Rebecki’s leg to sweep him and turn him over, and he finds his way on top and slides straight into mount. Ferreira bombards Rebecki with punches and elbows, and Rebecki twists and turns in any effort to escape. Ferreira sits on him awkwardly and works Rebecki over with his fists, until Rebecki muscles his way to his knees. Ferreira drags his man down and moves back to mount, and he gets going with a number of elbows as Copeland is watching closely. Copeland asks for Rebecki to fight back, and Rebecki sits up to protect himself from further damage. Rebecki somehow slides out the back door, and both men get back to their feet with a little under a minute to go. Ferreira jabs the body with a kick, and he continues to aim strikes to the midsection. Ferreira knocks Rebecki to the wall with a one-two, and he shoots for an easy takedown and throws Rebecki to the mat so he can hop into mount.
Ferreira postures up and drills Rebecki with punches and hammerfists. Ferreira keeps striking, sensing the finish might be right around the corner, and Copeland waves the fight off to save Rebecki from any further harm.
The Polish fighter’s long win streak is now a thing of the past, and the shellacking from “CDF” has made him nearly unrecognizable. This is a mighty comeback performance for the 39-year-old, who survived a tough first round and put away a man that came into this bout the winner of his last 16.
The Official Result
Diego Ferreira def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:51 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, citing his relentless grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Rębecki marches forward, throws heavy punches, and dives at legs for takedowns. He acknowledges Diego Ferreira's BJJ and power but believes Rębecki is durable enough to eat a big shot and impose his wrestling. He expects the line to move further in Rębecki's favor.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki to break down Carlos Diego Ferreira and finish him in the third round by knockout. He notes that Ferreira is 39 years old and past his prime, while Rębecki is well-rounded with good striking, power, wrestling, and submission game. He struggles to see a path to victory for Ferreira, as Rębecki can dictate where the fight takes place and has vicious striking.
Cody picks Rębecki, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and well-rounded game. He notes that Ferreira has a clear path to victory for opponents: wrestle him, tire him out, and avoid submissions. Cody points out that Ferreira has lost to wrestlers like Gamrot, Gillespie, and Dariush, and at 39 with a layoff, he is vulnerable. Rębecki is a strong Polish grappler who should follow the same blueprint. Cody also mentions that Rębecki's record is not fraudulent, as he has beaten quality opponents on the regional scene.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki, calling it an honorable passing of the torch. He respects Ferreira but believes Rębecki is a legitimate prospect who deserves the top 15 spot. He notes that Rębecki's only criticism came from his UFC debut where he dominated but had one moment of adversity, which he thinks is overblown.
The host confidently picks Rębecki due to his pressure, pace, and grappling, expecting him to overwhelm the 39-year-old Ferreira. He notes Ferreira's power and BJJ but believes Rębecki's youth and strength will be decisive. He predicts a decision win for Rębecki, as Ferreira should show enough resistance to avoid a finish. The pick is confident, though he acknowledges this is Rębecki's toughest test.
Paul picks Rębecki, agreeing with Cody that Ferreira's losses have come against top-tier wrestlers. He notes that Ferreira is a tough test but Rębecki is a finished product ready to contend. Paul mentions that Rębecki is a BJJ black belt and should be able to handle Ferreira's ground game. He expects Rębecki to win but notes the line is accurate with little value.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki over Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling Rębecki a 'tank' and 'Bruiser.' He highlights Rębecki's wrestling and ability to ragdoll opponents, referencing his win over Loik Radzhabov. He acknowledges Ferreira is a tricky test but believes Rębecki is a class above as a prospect.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 58 | 55% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 46 | 10 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 32 of 58 | 55% | 13 of 34 | 17 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 24 of 55 | 43% | 13 of 37 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 12 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.
Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.
Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.
The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.
Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 36 of 101 | 35% | 37 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 31 of 67 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 56 | 32% | 19 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 20 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 36 of 101 | 35% | 18 of 69 | 12 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 35 of 98 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 25 of 58 | 43% | 15 of 46 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 56 | 32% | 7 of 34 | 5 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 17 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 14 of 31 | 45% | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 45 | 40% | 11 of 35 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 11 of 27 | 40% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, placing 3 units on him at -200. He believes Gamrot should be -350 or -400, as he can win striking exchanges and dominate the wrestling. Angelo notes that Ferreira is a good BJJ player but Gamrot's top control is a big obstacle, and Ferreira would need to sweep to win. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling neutralizes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu and that Gamrot is a future champion.
Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot by decision, praising his well-rounded skills, cardio, and IQ. He notes Ferreira's age (36) and cardio concerns, but acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and solid striking. He expects a competitive fight but believes Gamrot's volume and takedown mixing will earn him a decision win. He thinks the line is wider than the fight will be.
Cody is a Gamrot fan, calling him 'Polish GSP' for his well-rounded skills. He notes Gamrot's excellent cardio, striking, and grappling, and that he now trains at American Top Team. Cody sees a path to victory via smothering wrestling and pace, similar to how Beneil Dariush and Gregor Gillespie beat Ferreira. He acknowledges Ferreira's dangerous BJJ and crafty striking but thinks Gamrot's youth and cardio will be too much.
Daniel Levi leans toward Mateusz Gamrot but is not fully confident. He respects Ferreira's elite jiu-jitsu but notes Ferreira has struggled with cardio and weight cuts in recent fights, gassing against Gregor Gillespie and Beneil Dariush. Levi thinks Gamrot's wrestling and top control will be effective as the fight progresses, especially if Ferreira tires. He acknowledges Gamrot's unorthodox takedown style and solid chin, but is wary of Ferreira's submission threats early.
Jacob agrees with Angelo, calling Gamrot the real deal. He notes that Ferreira is a Fortis MMA guy who tends to fall back against top competition. Jacob believes Gamrot's patient, controlling wrestling will allow him to take Ferreira down and wait for an opportunity to finish. He thinks Gamrot will dominate from start to finish and possibly get an early finish.
The host picks Gamrot by decision, believing his chain wrestling and improved striking will allow him to outwork Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira is slowing down and Gamrot is on the rise. He likes the decision prop at +145.
Paul agrees with Gamrot, citing his five-round experience in KSW and his ability to keep a high pace. He notes that Ferreira has struggled against wrestlers with good cardio, as seen in the Gillespie fight. Paul thinks Gamrot should execute a wrestling-heavy game plan and grind Ferreira down, but he doesn't love the price.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by second-round TKO. He notes Gamrot is well-rounded with good grappling, stand-up, cardio, and chin. He thinks Ferreira has slowed down recently and is 36 years old. He expects Gamrot to use feints and takedown threats to land a right hand, similar to the Holtzman fight. He sees Gamrot's power and speed being too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregor Gillespie | 0 | 31 of 60 | 51% | 37 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 1:06 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 45 of 62 | 72% | 53 of 70 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregor Gillespie | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 2 | Gregor Gillespie | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:08 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 35 of 42 | 83% | 43 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregor Gillespie | 31 of 60 | 51% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 18 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 45 of 62 | 72% | 37 of 52 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 17 | 6 of 8 | 30 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregor Gillespie | 26 of 45 | 57% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 18 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 10 of 20 | 50% | 5 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gregor Gillespie | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 35 of 42 | 83% | 32 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 37 |
Big Brady believes Gillespie's wrestling will be the difference, as he averages 7.02 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47% accuracy. He notes Ferreira has 68% takedown defense and was taken down five times in his last fight. Brady thinks Gillespie will control the fight on the mat with top control and superior cardio, winning a decision. He is not worried about Ferreira's submission threat off his back, as Ferreira has only two UFC submissions. He says the moneyline at -175 is worth a look.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling him the best jiu-jitsu guy in the division besides Oliveira and Dariush. He argues that Gillespie is overrated, citing his 50/50 fight with Jason Gonzalez and his loss to Kevin Lee. He believes Ferreira's jiu-jitsu will be too much for Gillespie, predicting a submission win. He notes Ferreira's ability to get back to his feet and his improved boxing, and thinks Gillespie will struggle to hold him down.
The MMA Guru picks Gregor Gillespie over Carlos Diego Ferreira, acknowledging it's a risky pick. He trusts Gillespie's wrestling style, which avoids being submitted by staying in body lock positions rather than full guard. He also notes Ferreira took the fight on short notice and Gillespie had a full camp, which benefits Gillespie. He predicts a unanimous decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 54 of 121 | 44% | 74 of 145 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 62 of 116 | 53% | 74 of 132 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 7:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 32 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 30 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 18 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 19 of 58 | 32% | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:36 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 24 of 44 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 54 of 121 | 44% | 43 of 104 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 45 of 109 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 62 of 116 | 53% | 46 of 98 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 51 of 93 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 21 of 39 | 53% | 17 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 29 of 51 | 56% | 24 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 11 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 10 of 22 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 7 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 19 of 58 | 32% | 16 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 23 of 43 | 53% | 15 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady slightly edges Carlos Diego Ferreira, citing his durability and output advantage. He notes that Dariush has been knocked out three times and Ferreira is not a knockout artist, but Ferreira's volume could be key. He expects a very close decision and admits it's a coin-flip fight.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, noting his wrestling and top control advantage. He acknowledges Ferreira's improved boxing and footwork, but believes Dariush's grappling and ability to avoid submissions will be key. He mentions Dariush's past win over Ferreira and his experience against high-level grapplers.
Ferreira has transformed his game since joining Fortis MMA, showing improved striking, pace, and pressure. He averages 283 strikes thrown per fight and has great cardio. His takedown defense has improved, and he gets back to his feet quickly. Dariush has been in firefights recently and may struggle with Ferreira's constant forward pressure. Ferreira's durability and chin are solid. I expect Ferreira to push the pace, outwork Dariush, and win a decision. The line is fair and Ferreira is the better fighter now.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush in a close fight, noting the odds should be 50-50. He praises Dariush's youth, activity, and improving stand-up, citing his performance against Edson Barboza. He questions Ferreira's wins over aging opponents and thinks Dariush's grappling will keep him safe. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady slightly edges Carlos Diego Ferreira, citing his durability and output advantage. He notes that Dariush has been knocked out three times and Ferreira is not a knockout artist, but Ferreira's volume could be key. He expects a very close decision and admits it's a coin-flip fight.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, noting his wrestling and top control advantage. He acknowledges Ferreira's improved boxing and footwork, but believes Dariush's grappling and ability to avoid submissions will be key. He mentions Dariush's past win over Ferreira and his experience against high-level grapplers.
Ferreira has transformed his game since joining Fortis MMA, showing improved striking, pace, and pressure. He averages 283 strikes thrown per fight and has great cardio. His takedown defense has improved, and he gets back to his feet quickly. Dariush has been in firefights recently and may struggle with Ferreira's constant forward pressure. Ferreira's durability and chin are solid. I expect Ferreira to push the pace, outwork Dariush, and win a decision. The line is fair and Ferreira is the better fighter now.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush in a close fight, noting the odds should be 50-50. He praises Dariush's youth, activity, and improving stand-up, citing his performance against Edson Barboza. He questions Ferreira's wins over aging opponents and thinks Dariush's grappling will keep him safe. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Maybe the KO is value -162