vs
-350 +260
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021 · Catchweight (160 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Devonte Smith
4.55 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.91 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.35 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Justin Jaynes
3.34 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
5.33 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.75 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
20.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Devonte Smith
Moneyline
BetWay -350
KO/TKO
BetWay -175
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetWay +450
Justin Jaynes
Moneyline
BetWay +260
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
BetWay +1100
Decision
BetWay +900
Devonte Smith - Fight History
LOSS vs Ľudovít Klein
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ľudovít Klein 0 53 of 98 54% 80 of 125 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:14
Devonte Smith 0 60 of 95 63% 80 of 117 0 of 2 0% 0 0 6:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ľudovít Klein 0 17 of 29 58% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devonte Smith 0 19 of 26 73% 22 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
2 Ľudovít Klein 0 16 of 28 57% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
Devonte Smith 0 12 of 26 46% 24 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:46
3 Ľudovít Klein 0 20 of 41 48% 26 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Devonte Smith 0 29 of 43 67% 34 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ľudovít Klein 53 of 98 54% 19 of 58 25 of 30 9 of 10 31 of 73 22 of 25 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 60 of 95 63% 25 of 56 25 of 28 10 of 11 42 of 72 18 of 23 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ľudovít Klein 17 of 29 58% 3 of 11 8 of 12 6 of 6 11 of 22 6 of 7 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 19 of 26 73% 7 of 14 10 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 15 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Ľudovít Klein 16 of 28 57% 6 of 18 8 of 8 2 of 2 8 of 19 8 of 9 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 12 of 26 46% 5 of 16 4 of 6 3 of 4 7 of 17 5 of 9 0 of 0
3 Ľudovít Klein 20 of 41 48% 10 of 29 9 of 10 1 of 2 12 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 29 of 43 67% 13 of 26 11 of 12 5 of 5 26 of 40 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Devonte Smith

Angelo picks Devonte Smith, citing his power and timing. He notes Klein is the more technical striker but has weight concerns on short notice. He thinks if Klein falls behind and wrestles, he'll get exhausted and knocked out. He acknowledges Klein could win if in shape.

"i'm gonna go with davonte smith here but ludovic is a high level striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Devonte Smith

Big Brady picks Devonte Smith to win by first-round knockout, but he is hesitant due to Smith's questionable chin. He notes that Smith has all the tools—speed, power, takedown defense—but has been knocked out in all his losses. Brady acknowledges that Klein is dangerous with head kicks and has a high finish rate, but he believes Smith is the better fighter. He expects someone to get finished, as both have high finish rates, and he leans toward Smith getting the knockout early.

Smith by first-round knockout
"i'm gonna say smith does knock out ludovic klein"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Devonte Smith

Cody leans Smith but is not confident. He notes Smith's explosive first round and power, but questions his cardio. He bet the under 1.5 rounds at +135, expecting an early finish. Cody thinks Klein's cardio is also suspect and the fight likely ends in the first round.

Bet under 1.5 rounds at +135
"i'll lean towards devonta smith but i do quite like the under"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Daniel Levi picks Ľudovít Klein as the underdog. He questions Devonte Smith's heart and mental toughness, noting that Smith has folded under pressure and lost to fighters like Kamuela Kirk. He thinks Klein has similar issues but likes the dog value. He believes the fight should be a pick'em and that Klein has a chance if he doesn't get pressured.

"i'm going with ludovic klein just because he's the dog i want to be shocked if devonte won"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Klein is a slick southpaw with knockout power, especially with his head kick. Smith has speed but has been finished in all his losses. Klein's low output could be a concern, but he should find an opening as Smith slows down. The fight likely ends inside the distance, and Klein has the power to finish. The 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop is also attractive.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -175
"rather than taking the plus 150 on ludavid klein i'd rather be okay on both sides and take that fight doesn't go to decision which currently hangs around -175"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Paul picks Klein but at a very low confidence level. He notes both fighters have cardio issues and are one- or two-round fighters. Paul thinks Klein's wrestling could be a factor if he can take Smith down, but he is not confident in either side. He calls it a dog-or-pass fight.

"i'm going to end up taking ludovic klein but very low level very very low on my on my list of things that i want to commit big money to"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Devonte Smith

The MMA Guru picks Devonte Smith over Ľudovít Klein, reasoning that Klein's cardio fades in high-paced three-round fights, as seen against Nate Landwehr. He trusts Smith's speed, technical boxing, and composure, though he acknowledges Smith has been knocked out before (by Kamar Worthy). He predicts Smith wins a decision, outworking Klein each round, and notes that Klein's only chance is a first-round KO, which he isn't betting on.

"i'm going to go with devonta smith via decision again maybe 30 26 or something like that"
LOSS vs Jamie Mullarkey
TKO (punches) R2 2:51 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jamie Mullarkey 0 29 of 64 45% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devonte Smith 1 55 of 108 50% 58 of 112 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jamie Mullarkey 0 22 of 49 44% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devonte Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 23 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
2 Jamie Mullarkey 0 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devonte Smith 1 34 of 62 54% 35 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jamie Mullarkey 29 of 64 45% 24 of 57 2 of 4 3 of 3 26 of 59 3 of 5 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 55 of 108 50% 22 of 65 22 of 32 11 of 11 34 of 75 15 of 22 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jamie Mullarkey 22 of 49 44% 18 of 45 1 of 1 3 of 3 20 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 21 of 46 45% 8 of 28 7 of 12 6 of 6 20 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jamie Mullarkey 7 of 15 46% 6 of 12 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 34 of 62 54% 14 of 37 15 of 20 5 of 5 14 of 31 14 of 20 6 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey, expecting him to use his grappling roots to set up takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Mullarkey has improved his striking training with Volkanovski and has a solid volume game, but Devonte Smith has 100% takedown defense in the UFC. Angelo is not in love with the pick and thinks Smith could land a big shot as Mullarkey commits. He likes the over on rounds and the more more monkey knife fight pick.

over on rounds, more more monkey knife fight
"i do have malarkey winning i'm not in love with it i have malarkey winning i think the the growth he's had in the striking department will help keep him alive on his feet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Devonte Smith

Big Brady picks Devonte Smith to win by knockout, confident in Smith's massive striking advantage. He notes Smith lands 5.64 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy and positive strike differential, while Mullarkey absorbs 4.65 strikes per minute with poor 43% striking defense. Smith hits hard and Mullarkey is very hittable. The key question is takedown defense: Smith has 100% TD defense in UFC but only defended 3 takedowns. Brady believes Smith will stuff takedowns and knock out Mullarkey.

Smith by KO
"give me davonte smith to win and give me davonte smith to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey as a dog, noting that Smith is a one-round fighter with questionable durability. Mullarkey has good cardio, pressure, and grappling. He expects Mullarkey to survive the first round and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Mullarkey trains with Alexander Volkanovski and has a strong team.

"jamie malarkey i think i'm gonna throw him on to uh be the third one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Devonte Smith

Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith, acknowledging his higher ceiling, athleticism, and power, but worries about his tendency to underperform. He notes Smith showed improvements in his ground game in his last fight. Mullarkey is a tough, gritty journeyman who will push the pace and test Smith's durability. Levi thinks Smith can win if he stays composed and doesn't gas, but he is concerned about Mullarkey making it a dirty fight.

"i'm gonna go with devante smith it's just that my big concern it's not necessarily that devante smith is gonna gas out per se it's more so that he's gonna underperform"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

I initially leaned Smith but after rewatching, I think Mullarkey's durability and pressure will be too much. Smith has a speed and power advantage but is fragile and has questionable cardio. Mullarkey will push forward, land takedowns, and make it ugly. I like Mullarkey by decision at +380 or inside the distance at +280.

Mullarkey by decision +380, Mullarkey inside the distance +280
"I'm kind of leaning jamie malarkey here man jamie markey by decision is obviously the way i would go here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul leans towards Mullarkey but wants to see the weigh-ins. He notes that Smith is explosive but fades quickly. Mullarkey is durable and has good cardio. He thinks Mullarkey could be a live dog if he can weather the early storm.

"i could be talked into the dog again here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey as an upset, citing Devonte Smith's chin problem. He notes that Smith was KO'd by a weak check hook from Kamal Worthy and has been wobbled in other fights. Mullarkey has KO power and trains with Alexander Volkanovski. He predicts Mullarkey will catch Smith with a lead hook and finish him in the first round.

Mullarkey by KO in round 1
"i'm going with jamie malarkey by ko in the first round in an upset win against devonta smith"
WIN vs Justin Jaynes
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Devonte Smith 0 34 of 65 52% 46 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:08
Justin Jaynes 0 11 of 27 40% 19 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Devonte Smith 0 25 of 51 49% 27 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Justin Jaynes 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Devonte Smith 0 9 of 14 64% 19 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
Justin Jaynes 0 2 of 3 66% 10 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Devonte Smith 34 of 65 52% 25 of 54 5 of 7 4 of 4 21 of 45 5 of 8 8 of 12
Justin Jaynes 11 of 27 40% 6 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Devonte Smith 25 of 51 49% 19 of 43 2 of 4 4 of 4 20 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes 9 of 24 37% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Devonte Smith 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 12
Justin Jaynes 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Devonte Smith

Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith confidently, citing his calf kicks, jab, and straight right. He notes Smith's 8-inch reach advantage and expects him to weather Jaynes' early storm and finish him in the second round. He mentions Smith's bounce-back potential after a torn Achilles and personal issues.

second round knockout
"i got devante smith here second round knockout weather this early storm and you win the fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Alex da Silva (Justin Jaynes) with hesitation, noting the fight is very close. He was impressed by da Silva's performance against Brad Riddell, showing good striking and grappling. He worries about Devonte Smith's chin after a KO loss to Kamal Worthy and thinks the threat of takedowns will make Smith gun-shy. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for da Silva.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to give the edge to alex de silva purely because he has an option to change things up"
LOSS vs Khama Worthy
TKO (punches) R1 4:15 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khama Worthy 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devonte Smith 1 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khama Worthy 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devonte Smith 1 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khama Worthy 15 of 27 55% 3 of 13 2 of 3 10 of 11 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 21 of 51 41% 9 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 16 18 of 46 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khama Worthy 15 of 27 55% 3 of 13 2 of 3 10 of 11 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Devonte Smith 21 of 51 41% 9 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 16 18 of 46 0 of 0 3 of 5
WIN vs Dong Hyun Ma
TKO (punches) R1 3:53 · UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Feb 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Devonte Smith 1 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dong Hyun Ma 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Devonte Smith 1 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dong Hyun Ma 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Devonte Smith 19 of 43 44% 14 of 34 1 of 4 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 4 of 5
Dong Hyun Ma 1 of 9 11% 0 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Devonte Smith 19 of 43 44% 14 of 34 1 of 4 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 4 of 5
Dong Hyun Ma 1 of 9 11% 0 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 4 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Julian Erosa
KO (punches) R1 0:46 · UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodríguez · Nov 10, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Devonte Smith 1 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Julian Erosa 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Devonte Smith 1 13 of 19 68% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Julian Erosa 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Devonte Smith 13 of 19 68% 9 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 6
Julian Erosa 4 of 7 57% 1 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Devonte Smith 13 of 19 68% 9 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 6
Julian Erosa 4 of 7 57% 1 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes - Fight History
LOSS vs Charles Rosa
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 182 28% 114 of 258 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:37
Justin Jaynes 0 44 of 92 47% 51 of 101 2 of 2 100% 2 3 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 35 of 119 29% 36 of 121 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
2 Charles Rosa 0 3 of 15 20% 57 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:21
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 12 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 2 1:16
3 Charles Rosa 0 13 of 48 27% 21 of 59 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:49
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 51 of 182 28% 33 of 156 8 of 15 10 of 11 47 of 173 0 of 0 4 of 9
Justin Jaynes 44 of 92 47% 32 of 79 9 of 9 3 of 4 42 of 89 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 35 of 119 29% 22 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 9 34 of 116 0 of 0 1 of 3
Justin Jaynes 19 of 41 46% 13 of 34 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 3 of 15 20% 1 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Justin Jaynes 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Charles Rosa 13 of 48 27% 10 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 4
Justin Jaynes 19 of 39 48% 14 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.

"i think charles rose has the pick here at least for me uh i don't have a bet on it i'm not that confident but i do think charles rose wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.

by submission, third round
"i'm going to take charles rosa to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.

"i gotta make the play on a few of them and i think that styles make fights i've always said that this is this is a style clash that would favor him for a change"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.

"yeah so i have charles rosa listed as submission or decision because it seems like he always gets submissions or he loses decisions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.

Rosa by submission plus 210; Rosa inside the distance plus 145; under 2.5 rounds minus 125
"Charles rosa is actually my locker then i played for this week... I truly believe that justin james is not a ufc caliber fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.

"i'll pick charles rosa but uh losing against men or he uh he lost my trust"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.

first round KO
"i think he's gonna crack charles rosa on the chin and i'm gonna go with justin james with a big upset"
LOSS vs Devonte Smith
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Devonte Smith 0 34 of 65 52% 46 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:08
Justin Jaynes 0 11 of 27 40% 19 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Devonte Smith 0 25 of 51 49% 27 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Justin Jaynes 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Devonte Smith 0 9 of 14 64% 19 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
Justin Jaynes 0 2 of 3 66% 10 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Devonte Smith 34 of 65 52% 25 of 54 5 of 7 4 of 4 21 of 45 5 of 8 8 of 12
Justin Jaynes 11 of 27 40% 6 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Devonte Smith 25 of 51 49% 19 of 43 2 of 4 4 of 4 20 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes 9 of 24 37% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Devonte Smith 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 12
Justin Jaynes 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Devonte Smith

Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith confidently, citing his calf kicks, jab, and straight right. He notes Smith's 8-inch reach advantage and expects him to weather Jaynes' early storm and finish him in the second round. He mentions Smith's bounce-back potential after a torn Achilles and personal issues.

second round knockout
"i got devante smith here second round knockout weather this early storm and you win the fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Alex da Silva (Justin Jaynes) with hesitation, noting the fight is very close. He was impressed by da Silva's performance against Brad Riddell, showing good striking and grappling. He worries about Devonte Smith's chin after a KO loss to Kamal Worthy and thinks the threat of takedowns will make Smith gun-shy. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for da Silva.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to give the edge to alex de silva purely because he has an option to change things up"
TKO (knee to the body and elbows) R1 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Dec 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriel Benítez 1 38 of 104 36% 38 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Jaynes 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriel Benítez 1 38 of 104 36% 38 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Jaynes 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriel Benítez 38 of 104 36% 20 of 83 10 of 12 8 of 9 34 of 99 0 of 0 4 of 5
Justin Jaynes 22 of 52 42% 16 of 44 6 of 8 0 of 0 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriel Benítez 38 of 104 36% 20 of 83 10 of 12 8 of 9 34 of 99 0 of 0 4 of 5
Justin Jaynes 22 of 52 42% 16 of 44 6 of 8 0 of 0 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Big Brady picks Gabriel Benítez, noting the line flipped from Benítez opening as an underdog to now being a heavy favorite. He likes Benítez's leg kicks and overall striking, and believes if Benítez survives Jaynes's early storm, he will take over. He predicts a second-round knockout, as Jaynes has never been knocked out but Benítez has finishing ability. He notes Jaynes is a 'one-round and bust' fighter with poor cardio.

Under 2.5 rounds; Benítez by second-round knockout; Jaynes's cardio a concern; Benítez's leg kicks
"The pick's gonna be Benítez I'm gonna say second round knockout... I'm going to take Benítez to win via second round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Daniel picks Gabriel Benítez but with hesitation, noting that Justin Jaynes has first-round power and has scored knockdowns in both his UFC fights. He believes if Benítez can survive the first round, his body kicks and experience will take over. He cites Javier Mendez calling Benítez the hardest kicker he's ever held pads for, harder than Luke Rockhold or Cain Velasquez. However, he acknowledges Benítez's suspect chin and the emotional weight on Jaynes fighting for his sick father, which historically hasn't favored fighters.

"I think the early go in favors justin janes but if gabrielle can just get past that first round he's gonna take over the fight but it's contingent on getting past that first round so i'll go with mowgli benitez …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

The host picks Gabriel Benítez to win by third round TKO. He highlights Benítez's leg kicks, technical striking, and cardio advantage over Justin Jaynes, who has a narrow path to victory and questionable gas tank. He believes Benítez will chew up the lead leg and finish late as Jaynes fades. He is very confident, giving Benítez a 75% chance of winning.

Third round finish prop; leg kicks will slow Jaynes down; Benítez by KO in third round.
"I do like gabrielle benitez to win this fight probably by third round tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Benítez by unanimous decision, expecting him to weather Justin Jaynes' first-round onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds as Jaynes gasses. He notes Benítez has a good chin and has faced tough competition, while Jaynes showed cardio issues in his loss to Gavin Tucker. He predicts a 29-28 scorecard.

method: unanimous decision, round: decision
"i think gabriel benitez can weather the storm in that first round he's got a good chin"
LOSS vs Gavin Tucker
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:43 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gavin Tucker 0 87 of 211 41% 88 of 212 1 of 2 50% 4 1 1:24
Justin Jaynes 1 41 of 101 40% 42 of 103 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gavin Tucker 0 15 of 48 31% 16 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:35
Justin Jaynes 1 28 of 54 51% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:38
2 Gavin Tucker 0 63 of 137 45% 63 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 30 20% 6 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gavin Tucker 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:49
Justin Jaynes 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gavin Tucker 87 of 211 41% 61 of 177 23 of 30 3 of 4 86 of 207 1 of 3 0 of 1
Justin Jaynes 41 of 101 40% 30 of 84 11 of 17 0 of 0 31 of 87 2 of 2 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gavin Tucker 15 of 48 31% 8 of 37 6 of 9 1 of 2 15 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes 28 of 54 51% 19 of 40 9 of 14 0 of 0 19 of 41 1 of 1 8 of 12
2 Gavin Tucker 63 of 137 45% 45 of 115 16 of 20 2 of 2 63 of 137 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes 6 of 30 20% 5 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gavin Tucker 9 of 26 34% 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 1
Justin Jaynes 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

Big Brady picks Jaynes but with caution due to his weight cut to featherweight. He likes Jaynes' power and finishing ability, noting Tucker's poor striking defense. He predicts a first-round knockout for Jaynes, but will wait for weigh-ins before betting.

"i do like james to win and i probably will bet him but i'm going to wait until the weigh-ins before i do put a bed"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Daniel Levi picks Gavin Tucker, but with low confidence. He notes that Tucker is the cleaner fighter with good footwork and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but his chin and tendency to stop fighting under adversity are concerns. Levi also mentions that Justin Jaynes has power but is sloppy and may gas out if he doesn't get a first-round knockout. He believes Tucker will win a close decision if he doesn't get caught.

"i gotta lean with gavin tucker here man i think he's a cleaner fighter all across the board"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Tucker is a black belt under Henzo Gracie with high-level jiu-jitsu and striking. Jaynes is a power puncher with limited skills, and Tucker's leg kicks and movement should neutralize him. The smaller UFC Apex cage still gives Tucker room to stick and move. Tucker likely wins by submission in the second or third round as Jaynes fades.

third round submission
"I like Gavin Tucker a lot here I think this is a tailor-made matchup for him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes because he is the bigger fighter, having fought at lightweight, and is cutting back down to featherweight. He notes that Gavin Tucker hasn't fought since UFC 240 and is 34 years old, which is bad time off. He believes Tucker may have found his ceiling after losing to Rick Glenn, while Jaynes is riding momentum from a first-round TKO over Frank Camacho.

"justin james is gonna win he's the bigger guy he just fought frank camacho at lightweight"
WIN vs Frank Camacho
TKO (punches) R1 0:41 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Jaynes 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Frank Camacho 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Jaynes 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Frank Camacho 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Jaynes 4 of 15 26% 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Frank Camacho 16 of 30 53% 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 22 4 of 5 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Jaynes 4 of 15 26% 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Frank Camacho 16 of 30 53% 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 22 4 of 5 2 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Frank Camacho

Big Brady picks Frank Camacho despite the close odds, citing Camacho's harder hitting and ability to stuff takedowns. He thinks Camacho will land more convincing strikes and win a close decision, possibly even finishing Jaynes. He notes Jaynes has been knocked out before by a lesser fighter, which is concerning.

odds: Jaynes minus 120, Camacho plus 100; pick by decision
"I'm gonna go the other side with Frank Camacho I think this fight is very tough for either fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Frank Camacho

Daniel Levi picks Frank Camacho, citing his experience, power, and sneaky trips. He notes that Camacho has fought tougher competition and that Justin Jaynes is a late replacement. Levi expects Camacho to win, possibly by first-round knockout, as Jaynes steps up in competition.

Frank Camacho by first round knockout
"I'm going to go with Frank Camacho here, Shaq."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)

Frevola is a better fighter than Camacho, who has been through wars and found his limit. Frevola's grinding style will be favored by the smaller cage. He will win by decision.

"Matt for volar is gonna beat Frank Camacho I think he gets it done by decision because that just seems to be for voters style"
Expert Picks (2)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Devonte Smith

Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith confidently, citing his calf kicks, jab, and straight right. He notes Smith's 8-inch reach advantage and expects him to weather Jaynes' early storm and finish him in the second round. He mentions Smith's bounce-back potential after a torn Achilles and personal issues.

second round knockout
"i got devante smith here second round knockout weather this early storm and you win the fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Alex da Silva (Justin Jaynes) with hesitation, noting the fight is very close. He was impressed by da Silva's performance against Brad Riddell, showing good striking and grappling. He worries about Devonte Smith's chin after a KO loss to Kamal Worthy and thinks the threat of takedowns will make Smith gun-shy. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for da Silva.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to give the edge to alex de silva purely because he has an option to change things up"