Career Averages - Devonte Smith
Career Averages - Justin Jaynes
Devonte Smith
Justin Jaynes
Devonte Smith - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 53 of 98 | 54% | 80 of 125 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Devonte Smith | 0 | 60 of 95 | 63% | 80 of 117 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 6:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devonte Smith | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 22 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 2 | Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Devonte Smith | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 24 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:46 | |
| 3 | Ľudovít Klein | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devonte Smith | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 34 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ľudovít Klein | 53 of 98 | 54% | 19 of 58 | 25 of 30 | 9 of 10 | 31 of 73 | 22 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 60 of 95 | 63% | 25 of 56 | 25 of 28 | 10 of 11 | 42 of 72 | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ľudovít Klein | 17 of 29 | 58% | 3 of 11 | 8 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 19 of 26 | 73% | 7 of 14 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ľudovít Klein | 16 of 28 | 57% | 6 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 17 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ľudovít Klein | 20 of 41 | 48% | 10 of 29 | 9 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 29 of 43 | 67% | 13 of 26 | 11 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Devonte Smith, citing his power and timing. He notes Klein is the more technical striker but has weight concerns on short notice. He thinks if Klein falls behind and wrestles, he'll get exhausted and knocked out. He acknowledges Klein could win if in shape.
Big Brady picks Devonte Smith to win by first-round knockout, but he is hesitant due to Smith's questionable chin. He notes that Smith has all the tools—speed, power, takedown defense—but has been knocked out in all his losses. Brady acknowledges that Klein is dangerous with head kicks and has a high finish rate, but he believes Smith is the better fighter. He expects someone to get finished, as both have high finish rates, and he leans toward Smith getting the knockout early.
Cody leans Smith but is not confident. He notes Smith's explosive first round and power, but questions his cardio. He bet the under 1.5 rounds at +135, expecting an early finish. Cody thinks Klein's cardio is also suspect and the fight likely ends in the first round.
Daniel Levi picks Ľudovít Klein as the underdog. He questions Devonte Smith's heart and mental toughness, noting that Smith has folded under pressure and lost to fighters like Kamuela Kirk. He thinks Klein has similar issues but likes the dog value. He believes the fight should be a pick'em and that Klein has a chance if he doesn't get pressured.
Klein is a slick southpaw with knockout power, especially with his head kick. Smith has speed but has been finished in all his losses. Klein's low output could be a concern, but he should find an opening as Smith slows down. The fight likely ends inside the distance, and Klein has the power to finish. The 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop is also attractive.
Paul picks Klein but at a very low confidence level. He notes both fighters have cardio issues and are one- or two-round fighters. Paul thinks Klein's wrestling could be a factor if he can take Smith down, but he is not confident in either side. He calls it a dog-or-pass fight.
The MMA Guru picks Devonte Smith over Ľudovít Klein, reasoning that Klein's cardio fades in high-paced three-round fights, as seen against Nate Landwehr. He trusts Smith's speed, technical boxing, and composure, though he acknowledges Smith has been knocked out before (by Kamar Worthy). He predicts Smith wins a decision, outworking Klein each round, and notes that Klein's only chance is a first-round KO, which he isn't betting on.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 29 of 64 | 45% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devonte Smith | 1 | 55 of 108 | 50% | 58 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 22 of 49 | 44% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devonte Smith | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 23 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devonte Smith | 1 | 34 of 62 | 54% | 35 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 29 of 64 | 45% | 24 of 57 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 59 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 55 of 108 | 50% | 22 of 65 | 22 of 32 | 11 of 11 | 34 of 75 | 15 of 22 | 6 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 22 of 49 | 44% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 21 of 46 | 45% | 8 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 7 of 15 | 46% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 34 of 62 | 54% | 14 of 37 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 31 | 14 of 20 | 6 of 11 |
Angelo picks Jamie Mullarkey, expecting him to use his grappling roots to set up takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Mullarkey has improved his striking training with Volkanovski and has a solid volume game, but Devonte Smith has 100% takedown defense in the UFC. Angelo is not in love with the pick and thinks Smith could land a big shot as Mullarkey commits. He likes the over on rounds and the more more monkey knife fight pick.
Big Brady picks Devonte Smith to win by knockout, confident in Smith's massive striking advantage. He notes Smith lands 5.64 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy and positive strike differential, while Mullarkey absorbs 4.65 strikes per minute with poor 43% striking defense. Smith hits hard and Mullarkey is very hittable. The key question is takedown defense: Smith has 100% TD defense in UFC but only defended 3 takedowns. Brady believes Smith will stuff takedowns and knock out Mullarkey.
Cody picks Mullarkey as a dog, noting that Smith is a one-round fighter with questionable durability. Mullarkey has good cardio, pressure, and grappling. He expects Mullarkey to survive the first round and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Mullarkey trains with Alexander Volkanovski and has a strong team.
Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith, acknowledging his higher ceiling, athleticism, and power, but worries about his tendency to underperform. He notes Smith showed improvements in his ground game in his last fight. Mullarkey is a tough, gritty journeyman who will push the pace and test Smith's durability. Levi thinks Smith can win if he stays composed and doesn't gas, but he is concerned about Mullarkey making it a dirty fight.
I initially leaned Smith but after rewatching, I think Mullarkey's durability and pressure will be too much. Smith has a speed and power advantage but is fragile and has questionable cardio. Mullarkey will push forward, land takedowns, and make it ugly. I like Mullarkey by decision at +380 or inside the distance at +280.
Paul leans towards Mullarkey but wants to see the weigh-ins. He notes that Smith is explosive but fades quickly. Mullarkey is durable and has good cardio. He thinks Mullarkey could be a live dog if he can weather the early storm.
The MMA Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey as an upset, citing Devonte Smith's chin problem. He notes that Smith was KO'd by a weak check hook from Kamal Worthy and has been wobbled in other fights. Mullarkey has KO power and trains with Alexander Volkanovski. He predicts Mullarkey will catch Smith with a lead hook and finish him in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 46 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Devonte Smith | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 10 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 34 of 65 | 52% | 25 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 12 |
| Justin Jaynes | 11 of 27 | 40% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 43 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Jaynes | 9 of 24 | 37% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Devonte Smith | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Justin Jaynes | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith confidently, citing his calf kicks, jab, and straight right. He notes Smith's 8-inch reach advantage and expects him to weather Jaynes' early storm and finish him in the second round. He mentions Smith's bounce-back potential after a torn Achilles and personal issues.
The MMA Guru picks Alex da Silva (Justin Jaynes) with hesitation, noting the fight is very close. He was impressed by da Silva's performance against Brad Riddell, showing good striking and grappling. He worries about Devonte Smith's chin after a KO loss to Kamal Worthy and thinks the threat of takedowns will make Smith gun-shy. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for da Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devonte Smith | 1 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khama Worthy | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devonte Smith | 1 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khama Worthy | 15 of 27 | 55% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 21 of 51 | 41% | 9 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 16 | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khama Worthy | 15 of 27 | 55% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 21 of 51 | 41% | 9 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 16 | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 1 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 1 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 19 of 43 | 44% | 14 of 34 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 19 of 43 | 44% | 14 of 34 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Dong Hyun Ma | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 1 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 1 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Julian Erosa | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Julian Erosa | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Justin Jaynes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 51 of 182 | 28% | 114 of 258 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:37 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 44 of 92 | 47% | 51 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 3 | 2:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 35 of 119 | 29% | 36 of 121 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 57 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:21 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 21 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 51 of 182 | 28% | 33 of 156 | 8 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 47 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
| Justin Jaynes | 44 of 92 | 47% | 32 of 79 | 9 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 42 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 35 of 119 | 29% | 22 of 101 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 41 | 46% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 3 of 15 | 20% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Justin Jaynes | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 13 of 48 | 27% | 10 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 39 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.
Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.
Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.
Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.
Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.
Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 46 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Devonte Smith | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 10 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 34 of 65 | 52% | 25 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 12 |
| Justin Jaynes | 11 of 27 | 40% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 43 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Jaynes | 9 of 24 | 37% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Devonte Smith | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Justin Jaynes | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith confidently, citing his calf kicks, jab, and straight right. He notes Smith's 8-inch reach advantage and expects him to weather Jaynes' early storm and finish him in the second round. He mentions Smith's bounce-back potential after a torn Achilles and personal issues.
The MMA Guru picks Alex da Silva (Justin Jaynes) with hesitation, noting the fight is very close. He was impressed by da Silva's performance against Brad Riddell, showing good striking and grappling. He worries about Devonte Smith's chin after a KO loss to Kamal Worthy and thinks the threat of takedowns will make Smith gun-shy. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for da Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Benítez | 1 | 38 of 104 | 36% | 38 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel Benítez | 1 | 38 of 104 | 36% | 38 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Benítez | 38 of 104 | 36% | 20 of 83 | 10 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Justin Jaynes | 22 of 52 | 42% | 16 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel Benítez | 38 of 104 | 36% | 20 of 83 | 10 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Justin Jaynes | 22 of 52 | 42% | 16 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Gabriel Benítez, noting the line flipped from Benítez opening as an underdog to now being a heavy favorite. He likes Benítez's leg kicks and overall striking, and believes if Benítez survives Jaynes's early storm, he will take over. He predicts a second-round knockout, as Jaynes has never been knocked out but Benítez has finishing ability. He notes Jaynes is a 'one-round and bust' fighter with poor cardio.
Daniel picks Gabriel Benítez but with hesitation, noting that Justin Jaynes has first-round power and has scored knockdowns in both his UFC fights. He believes if Benítez can survive the first round, his body kicks and experience will take over. He cites Javier Mendez calling Benítez the hardest kicker he's ever held pads for, harder than Luke Rockhold or Cain Velasquez. However, he acknowledges Benítez's suspect chin and the emotional weight on Jaynes fighting for his sick father, which historically hasn't favored fighters.
The host picks Gabriel Benítez to win by third round TKO. He highlights Benítez's leg kicks, technical striking, and cardio advantage over Justin Jaynes, who has a narrow path to victory and questionable gas tank. He believes Benítez will chew up the lead leg and finish late as Jaynes fades. He is very confident, giving Benítez a 75% chance of winning.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Benítez by unanimous decision, expecting him to weather Justin Jaynes' first-round onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds as Jaynes gasses. He notes Benítez has a good chin and has faced tough competition, while Jaynes showed cardio issues in his loss to Gavin Tucker. He predicts a 29-28 scorecard.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Tucker | 0 | 87 of 211 | 41% | 88 of 212 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1:24 |
| Justin Jaynes | 1 | 41 of 101 | 40% | 42 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin Tucker | 0 | 15 of 48 | 31% | 16 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0:35 |
| Justin Jaynes | 1 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:38 | |
| 2 | Gavin Tucker | 0 | 63 of 137 | 45% | 63 of 137 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 6 of 30 | 20% | 6 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gavin Tucker | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Tucker | 87 of 211 | 41% | 61 of 177 | 23 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 86 of 207 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Justin Jaynes | 41 of 101 | 40% | 30 of 84 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 87 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin Tucker | 15 of 48 | 31% | 8 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Jaynes | 28 of 54 | 51% | 19 of 40 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | |
| 2 | Gavin Tucker | 63 of 137 | 45% | 45 of 115 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 63 of 137 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Jaynes | 6 of 30 | 20% | 5 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gavin Tucker | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Justin Jaynes | 7 of 17 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jaynes but with caution due to his weight cut to featherweight. He likes Jaynes' power and finishing ability, noting Tucker's poor striking defense. He predicts a first-round knockout for Jaynes, but will wait for weigh-ins before betting.
Daniel Levi picks Gavin Tucker, but with low confidence. He notes that Tucker is the cleaner fighter with good footwork and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but his chin and tendency to stop fighting under adversity are concerns. Levi also mentions that Justin Jaynes has power but is sloppy and may gas out if he doesn't get a first-round knockout. He believes Tucker will win a close decision if he doesn't get caught.
Tucker is a black belt under Henzo Gracie with high-level jiu-jitsu and striking. Jaynes is a power puncher with limited skills, and Tucker's leg kicks and movement should neutralize him. The smaller UFC Apex cage still gives Tucker room to stick and move. Tucker likely wins by submission in the second or third round as Jaynes fades.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes because he is the bigger fighter, having fought at lightweight, and is cutting back down to featherweight. He notes that Gavin Tucker hasn't fought since UFC 240 and is 34 years old, which is bad time off. He believes Tucker may have found his ceiling after losing to Rick Glenn, while Jaynes is riding momentum from a first-round TKO over Frank Camacho.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frank Camacho | 1 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Jaynes | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frank Camacho | 1 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jaynes | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frank Camacho | 16 of 30 | 53% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Jaynes | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frank Camacho | 16 of 30 | 53% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Frank Camacho despite the close odds, citing Camacho's harder hitting and ability to stuff takedowns. He thinks Camacho will land more convincing strikes and win a close decision, possibly even finishing Jaynes. He notes Jaynes has been knocked out before by a lesser fighter, which is concerning.
Daniel Levi picks Frank Camacho, citing his experience, power, and sneaky trips. He notes that Camacho has fought tougher competition and that Justin Jaynes is a late replacement. Levi expects Camacho to win, possibly by first-round knockout, as Jaynes steps up in competition.
Frevola is a better fighter than Camacho, who has been through wars and found his limit. Frevola's grinding style will be favored by the smaller cage. He will win by decision.
Expert Picks (2)
Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith confidently, citing his calf kicks, jab, and straight right. He notes Smith's 8-inch reach advantage and expects him to weather Jaynes' early storm and finish him in the second round. He mentions Smith's bounce-back potential after a torn Achilles and personal issues.
The MMA Guru picks Alex da Silva (Justin Jaynes) with hesitation, noting the fight is very close. He was impressed by da Silva's performance against Brad Riddell, showing good striking and grappling. He worries about Devonte Smith's chin after a KO loss to Kamal Worthy and thinks the threat of takedowns will make Smith gun-shy. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for da Silva.
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