vs
+115 -130
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jared Gordon
5.64 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
4.14 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.78 TD Avg
32.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Joe Solecki
1.97 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
1.85 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
2.06 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
14.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Jared Gordon
Moneyline
DraftKings +115
KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
BetMGM +240
Joe Solecki
Moneyline
FanDuel -130
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1000
Submission
BetRivers +400
Decision
FanDuel +200
Jared Gordon - Fight History
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission R1 3:29 · UFC 328 ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-325), Miller (+260)

Round 1
It’s Jim Miller (38-19, 1 NC; 27-18, 1 NC UFC) fight day, the first one of these this year. Coming up on 43 years of age, the New Jersey native still has a ways to go to reach 50 UFC bouts. He can get to 47 tonight once the cage doors close and referee Keith Peterson says go, when he battles Gordon (21-8, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC). This lightweight clash kicks off with no nonsense and no fist bump either.
Miller stalks Gordon down slowly and cautiously, keeping his gloves up to defend a high kick. Miller leaps forward and catches Gordon with a shovel uppercut. Gordon has to take a quick count of his teeth and absorbs a knee from up close. Miller breaks off and takes a body kick. Miller throws a low kick that bangs into Gordon’s cup, and Gordon tries to take him down and abandons it to adjust his groin. Peterson calls time and gives Gordon as much time as he needs to recover. After 80 seconds, Gordon is good to go, and Miller apologizes for the accidental foul. Gordon strikes first with a high kick that harmlessly bangs into the guard, and Miller crowds him behind a pair of hooks. Miller kicks the side again and is driven back with a right hand.
Gordon jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he catches a Miller body kick to shoot for a takedown.
This reckless shot is just traveling down the road to perdition for Gordon, as Miller snatches up a guillotine choke and cinches both legs around the waist, gripping the submission with everything he has. Miller rolls Gordon to the side, squeezing with his self-describes "old man strength." Miller arches his back and has Gordon dead to rights. Gordon surrenders so he does not go out on his shield, and the victorious Miller leaps atop the cage to let loose a roar of victory.
In less than four minutes, the OG Miller has notched his 28th victory in the Octagon, extending his own record. He has now finished 20 opponents as a UFC fighter, one shy of organizational leader Charles Oliveira. In victory, Miller gives it up to his son for beating cancer, declaring that anything he does in combat pales in comparison to what his offspring went through.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon R1 3:29 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, stating his hands are better and his takedown defense should be good enough. He dismisses Gordon's last loss due to being hit by a car. He notes Gordon is a touch younger and faster. However, he thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy and will not bet on it. He acknowledges Jim Miller's home advantage and toughness.

Angelo says he is not spending on the 3-to-1 odds.
"I'm gonna pick Jared Gordon here because I do think his hands are better and I think the takedown defense should be good enough to defend some of these Jim Miller takedowns. But 3 to 1 money is crazy. I'm …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon but is not fully confident. He notes that Jim Miller is tough and experienced, and that the age difference might only be half a second faster. He thinks the fight is competitive and that Jim Miller plus 3.5 is not the worst bet. He mentions that Jim Miller has been finished in all his losses in New Jersey.

over round line lean
"I am picking Jared Gordon here. But the idea that Jim Miller can't hang on the feet seems something that you can dismiss."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, assuming he wasn't hit by a car before this fight. He notes Gordon fights at a high level and should be the minute winner everywhere. Brady expects Gordon to win by decision, though he acknowledges Jim Miller has power and a guillotine. He is rooting for Miller but thinks Gordon gets it done on the scorecards.

"I'm going to take Jared Gordon to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, citing his youth and well-rounded skills. He thinks Gordon's striking and grappling are a step ahead of Miller, who is older and less active. Cody expects Gordon to win by decision.

"I'm picking Jared Gordon. Despite the fact that I want Jim Miller to win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Connor also picks Gordon, focusing on directionality: Gordon has a clear process of pressuring and putting out volume, while Miller never has. Connor notes that Miller has no ability to be the one pressuring and will just accept the fight Gordon wants. He adds that Gordon is a little too fast and put together with his hands for Miller to take him out of his game.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300.
"I think I will because he is going to understand how to kind of tell the story of the fight to dictate in a way that Jim Miller never has been able to."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Daniel picks Gordon, predicting a 29-28 decision where Miller wins the first round but Gordon edges out the last two with top control. He respects Miller's legacy but sees Gordon's youth and grappling as decisive.

"I'm also going Gordon. I'm gonna go 2928 decision. I think Miller wins the first round. Gordon kind of edges out the last two with top control."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Jared Gordon

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Gordon is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (5.64 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to the 41-year-old Miller. Miller's takedown defense (48%) is a liability, and Gordon has solid takedown defense (60%) to keep the fight standing. Gordon's recent KO win over Thiago Moises shows his power, while Miller has been knocked out multiple times. Gordon's pace and pressure should overwhelm Miller, leading to a late stoppage or clear decision.

Gordon by KO/TKO +400
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Jacob picks Jared Gordon but is not betting on him out of respect for Jim Miller, who has been dealing with his son's cancer. He thinks Gordon should win but sees weird paths to victory for Miller. He might play Jim Miller in some capacity on Saturday.

"I got to pick Jared Gordon as a pick because I mean he should just be the better fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host picks Gordon, citing his pressure, pace, and power striking. He believes Gordon's grappling is good enough to keep Miller from grinding, and that Gordon's durability and cardio will allow him to dictate the fight. He expects a decision win, though he notes Miller's hometown crowd and power could pose a threat.

"I like Gordon here. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul picks Gordon, citing his technical striking and Miller's decline. He notes Miller's age and distractions, and thinks Gordon is simply better everywhere. Paul expects Gordon to win.

"Jared Gordon is just a kind of like one step advance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon but calls him a 'risky pick'. He notes Gordon's inconsistency but believes Jim Miller has lost his pop and recent performances have declined. He thinks Gordon should figure out the 55-year-old Miller and get a finish, though he initially says decision then corrects to finish.

by finish
"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon winning this one by decision. Um, by finish. Sorry."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Zane picks Gordon, citing his improved boxing and ability to dictate the fight with pressure and volume. He notes that Jim Miller lacks a clear process and is not a strategic thinker, while Gordon has a clear game plan. However, Zane acknowledges Miller's power and finishing ability, making Gordon vulnerable despite being the favorite.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300. Should probably be closer than that.
"I am going to take Jared Gordon."
LOSS vs Rafa García
KO R3 2:27 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 1 91 of 162 56% 107 of 179 2 of 3 66% 2 1 2:01
Jared Gordon 0 65 of 186 34% 80 of 201 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 22 of 41 53% 23 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Jared Gordon 0 23 of 64 35% 24 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 33 of 61 54% 48 of 77 1 of 2 50% 1 1 1:12
Jared Gordon 0 31 of 86 36% 45 of 100 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
3 Rafa García 1 36 of 60 60% 36 of 60 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:25
Jared Gordon 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 91 of 162 56% 74 of 144 7 of 7 10 of 11 70 of 137 10 of 11 11 of 14
Jared Gordon 65 of 186 34% 55 of 171 8 of 13 2 of 2 65 of 186 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 22 of 41 53% 15 of 33 2 of 2 5 of 6 20 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 23 of 64 35% 16 of 55 5 of 7 2 of 2 23 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 33 of 61 54% 26 of 54 3 of 3 4 of 4 27 of 55 6 of 6 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 31 of 86 36% 29 of 82 2 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 36 of 60 60% 33 of 57 2 of 2 1 of 1 23 of 43 2 of 3 11 of 14
Jared Gordon 11 of 36 30% 10 of 34 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-240); Garcia (+200)

Round 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. Garcia opens with a low kick. Gordon steps in and lands a left. Gordon crashes forward and they exchange. Garcia fires right back. They trade leg kicks but Garcia is more impactful. Gordon probes with a lead hook and a jab. He follows up with a 1-2. A straight right connects for Garcia. A hard leg kick lands for Garcia. A short right by Garcia buckles Gordon’s knees momentarily, but he’s still in the fight. Gordon lands a body kick and then a striaght right. Garcia catches a kick and tags his foe with a right. Gordon stumbles to the floor but pops right back up. Garcia is hunting for that right and finds the range on another one. A stiff jab backs Gordon up. Gordon sticks a jab of his own. A counter right by Gordon makes an impact. He strings some punches together to back Garcia up. As Gordon gains momentum, Garcia changes levels and gets a takedown. Gordon gets to the fence and stands. They stay in the clinch, and Garcia lands a left on the break. Gordon lands a left hook before the end of the period.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 2
Garcia makes Gordon stumble backward with a left at the outset. They’re trading and Gordon gets the better of it. Garcia jumps a guillotine and then rolls into mount. Gordon gets out of it and now must defend Garcia from his back. Gordon moves to the fence and works his way up. Garcia tries to drag Gordon down but it’s unsuccessful. They get back to boxing in the center of the cage. Plent of shots are landing. Gordon has Garcia covering up after landing a couple big rights. Garcia clinches and lands some uppercuts in close. Gordon jabs and then touches his foe with a right. Garcia with a stiff jab, but a counter left hook by Gordon has Garcia backing up. They’re trading in the pocket, but Gordon is landing combinations with more volume. However, Garcia cuts his opponent with an elbow. Gordon with a front kick down the middle. Garcia stumbles after eating a left hook. Garcia with a hard elbow in close quarters late and concludes the round with a takedown as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia opens with a 1-2. He follows with an inside leg kick. Gordon responds with a combination in the pocket. They clinch and Garcia lands a couple of slashing elbows. Gordon pumps his jab. A left hook from Garcia stops Gordon. A heavy 1-2 finds the mark for Garcia, who then rips the body. GArcia is upping the volume as Gordon seems to be slowing. A right by Gordon lands on the side of the head, but Garcia is still attacking. Garcia rips the body with a left. A clean short right to the chin sends Gordon tumbling to the floor. Garcia tees off with punches on his reeling opponent before locking in a modified rear-naked choke. It’s pretty tight, but
he gives up on the submission to pummel Gordon with elbows from top position. He batters a bloodied Gordon with several more elbows before Hatley intervenes.
It’s a violent finish and just Garcia’s second career win via KO or TKO.

The Official Result
Rafa Gacia def. Jared Gordon via TKO (Elbows) R3 2:27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, calling him the better overall fighter and more well-rounded. He notes Gordon is a good wrestler with high volume striking, tough and busy. He says he has seen Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his, and Jared Gordon not get decisions that should have been his. He is surprised to see Gordon as a 3-to-1 favorite. He suggests Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 as a possible bet.

Rafa Garcia plus three and a half might be the best bet here.
"I am going to pick Jared Gordon here. I have seen with my own eyes Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Gordon due to his pace, volume, and recent power. He worries about corrupt judges but expects Gordon to win a decision. He notes Garcia is tough and has only been knocked out by Grant Dawson, so a finish is unlikely.

Decision win; not in love with the price
"Give me Gordon here. Not in love with the price tag to be honest, but I think he wins the fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Connor picks Jared Gordon, emphasizing Gordon's technical boxing and ability to impose his game plan. He notes that García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher shows he can be outworked, and Gordon is a more dangerous fighter than Gruetzemacher. Connor believes Gordon's pressure and sharper striking will overcome García's durability and lack of strategy.

"I think that Gordon can repeat that kind of success because he's a much more dangerous fighter than Chris Gruetzemacher was."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Gordon is a big fan favorite and the host believes Garcia's lack of knockout threat allows Gordon to dictate the pace. He expects Gordon to stay on the gas, put Garcia against the cage, land takedowns, and win on the scorecards.

"I think this is a matchup where the lack of knockout threat from Rafa Garcia will allow Gordon to dictate the pace of this fight. Look for him to stay on the gas, put Garcia up against the cage, maybe …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling him the most underrated lightweight on the roster. He argues Gordon's boxing is superior to Garcia's and that Garcia lacks power. He criticizes Garcia's wins as unimpressive and believes Gordon should be a bigger favorite. He predicts a dominant performance with a TKO in the late second round, possibly including a 10-8 round.

TKO late second round
"I'm going with Jared Gordon, the most underrated lightweight on the roster. ... I'm going to say Jared Gordon gets this one done by a TKO in the first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Zane picks Jared Gordon, citing Gordon's improved boxing form and power, which should allow him to land the bigger shots. He notes that García is durable but lacks power and a strategic approach, often floating through fights. Zane believes Gordon's consistent pressure and sharper striking will win a three-round war, as García's lack of imposition makes him vulnerable.

"I think I have to pick Jared Gordon in that kind of fight. He is likely to land the bigger shots."
WIN vs Thiago Moises
KO R1 3:37 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 1 7 of 13 53% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:36
Thiago Moises 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 7 of 13 53% 5 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thiago Moises 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-110), Moises (-110)

Round 1
Lightweight veterans with technically equal records in the UFC—although one has a no contest—come to blows, with plans of remaining highly regarded in the talent-rich division. Gordon (20-7, 1 NC; 8-6, 1 NC UFC) is the one who also has the grey mark on his pace thanks to a clash of heads with Bobby Green, and has otherwise alternated wins and losses for a few years. The same can be said for Brazil’s Moises (19-8, 8-6 UFC), who is ready to continue the rivalry of his team of American Top Team against regional adversarial team Kill Cliff FC and its rep of Gordon. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep things on the up-and-up, but they are fine with one another and clap hands. The first strike thrown is a Moises body kick, which Gordon uses to easily sling his opponent to his back. Gordon practically walks into top control, and Moises wraps up his arms in an unorthodox armlock attack. Moises lets go of the lockup and lashes out with a short elbow off his back that opens a tiny cut on the top of Gordon’s forehead. Gordon responds with ample ground-and-pound of his own, smearing his blood all over the Brazilian’s head and chest. Moises works his way back up to his feet, ignoring the strikes lobbed at him so he can fight his way back up and away. They proceed to smack one another with low kicks, and Gordon darts in with a pair of punches that bounce off the guard. Leg kicks continue to fly, and they tag one another with single strikes. When Gordon ducks in to throw, Moises counters with a clean right hand over the top. “Flash” does not bat an eye, and instead lets Moises pitch a left hand at him.
This is exactly what he wants, as Gordon times a picture-perfect right hand that smashes into the American Top Team fighter’s chin and puts him down for the count. Moises’ head clatters off the mat when he collapses to the ground like a bird that’s had its wings clipped, and Gordon hammers the nail with a leaping right hand that gives commentator Michael Bisping flashbacks of when he took on Dan Henderson, cleanly separating Moises from his consciousness.
Before Hatley can get to them, Gordon gets one or two off that wake Moises back up, but they are merely academic as Gordon has dropped the hammer. Blood streaming down his face, Gordon stands up and shrugs, as if he knew he was going to do this all along. When Moises comes to, the two hug it out, but it is unclear if Moises knows the license plate number of the bus that just ran him over.

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Thiago Moises R1 3:37 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Thiago Moises

Angelo picks Thiago Moises after going back and forth. He acknowledges that Jared Gordon has been screwed on scorecards and could be on a win streak, but trusts Moises's training and activity. He notes that Moises is a slick grappler with technical striking and that Gordon is inactive and not on as good a team. Angelo says likely no bets for this fight.

Likely no bets for this fight.
"I'm going to stick with Thiago Moises. I trust the training. I trust the activity."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Gordon's losses are to tough competition in close decisions, and he thinks Gordon's takedown defense and chin hold up. He expects a close competitive decision win for Gordon.

Gordon by decision
"I like Gordon here. ... I think he wins this fight and wins it by a pretty pretty close competitive decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host finds this a tough puzzle but leans with Gordon's pace and pressure. He notes Moises has looked good against certain opponents but doesn't do well against guys who set the pace, and Gordon is exactly that. He expects Gordon to grind out a high pace, possibly get a late finish, but mostly win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.

Gordon by decision (possible late finish)
"I have to lean with Gordon's pace and pressure. Moises has looked very good against certain opponents, but he doesn't do well against guys that can set the pace."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

The Guru picks Jared Gordon, citing a rule of thumb that beating Thiago Moises means you're good. He thinks Gordon has been robbed in recent decisions (Bobby Green, Nazareno Malegarie) and is better than his record. He acknowledges grappling concerns from the Grant Dawson loss but believes Gordon's fundamental grappling defense is strong. He predicts Gordon wins by decision.

"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon over Thiago Moises."
CANCEL vs Kauê Fernandes
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kauê Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Kauê Fernandes as an underdog, arguing that the odds are too wide. He notes that Jared Gordon's only real path to victory is wrestling, and Fernandes has solid takedown defense (62%) and dangerous striking. He worries about Fernandes' takedown defense but thinks Fernandes can win if he uses leg kicks to take away Gordon's wrestling.

"I'm going to lean the dog we're going two fights in a row dog Caillou Fernandez my one and only concern here is the takedown defense of Caillou"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon to win by finish in the second or third round. He heavily criticizes Kauê Fernandes' competition level, noting his opponents have poor records and he has not fought anyone decent. He believes Gordon's well-rounded skills and consistency will overwhelm Fernandes, who likely needs an early finish to win.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go Jared Gordon getting this one done by finish in the second or third round"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 146 of 316 46% 156 of 330 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Gordon 0 141 of 299 47% 170 of 338 0 of 13 0% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 35 of 64 54% 35 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Gordon 0 16 of 56 28% 21 of 63 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:13
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 37 of 80 46% 47 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 55 of 88 62% 79 of 120 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:34
3 Nasrat Haqparast 0 74 of 172 43% 74 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 70 of 155 45% 70 of 155 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 146 of 316 46% 122 of 288 23 of 27 1 of 1 133 of 298 8 of 10 5 of 8
Jared Gordon 141 of 299 47% 125 of 275 12 of 19 4 of 5 128 of 274 13 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 35 of 64 54% 27 of 55 8 of 9 0 of 0 30 of 56 0 of 0 5 of 8
Jared Gordon 16 of 56 28% 11 of 48 2 of 4 3 of 4 14 of 50 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 37 of 80 46% 27 of 68 10 of 12 0 of 0 30 of 71 7 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 55 of 88 62% 49 of 81 6 of 7 0 of 0 44 of 70 11 of 18 0 of 0
3 Nasrat Haqparast 74 of 172 43% 68 of 165 5 of 6 1 of 1 73 of 171 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 70 of 155 45% 65 of 146 4 of 8 1 of 1 70 of 154 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Nasrat Haqparast
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Haqparast (-238), Gordon (+195)

Round 1
Haqparast and Gordon do not touch gloves before going at it. Rich Mitchell is your referee. Haqparast is southpaw, Gordon orthodox, and Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence, picking up a single-leg. He elevates the leg, but instead of finishing the takedown, uses his free hand to punch Haqparast’s face. Gordon lets the leg go, but scoops up another single-leg seconds later, and again uses the chance to land strikes rather than bring the fight to the floor. He loses the leg and Haqparast sticks him with a hard left. Haqparast lands another hard left, and Gordon drops levels for a takedown. This time it looks like a serious attempt, as he runs Haqparast to the fence, but Haqparast keeps his feet under him. They disengage and return to the center of the Octagon. Gordon shoots for another takedown, and again they end up against the fence. Haqparast again defends ably, and after they break, he nails Gordon with a solid right jab. Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence and they trade shots up the middle. Haqparast gets the better of it, smacking Gordon with a three-piece that hurts him. Gordon seems to recover, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast

Round 2
Haqparast scores first, with a hard overhand left that glances off the shoulder but still gets some of Gordon’s head. Gordon marches forward, but his face is showing the wear of trying to get past Haqparast’s righty jab. Gordon drops for a takedown, but Haqparast defends capably. Gordon marches forward, backing Haqparast to the cage, and nails him with two good punches before Haqparast can slide out the side. Gordon walks Haqparast down against the fence and mugs him with punches again. Haqparast is bleeding from under the left eye. There is a brief break in the action as Gordon’s left glove is losing tape. They go back to work, and Gordon feints a level change to open him up for a pair of punches upstairs. Haqparast returns fire, and both men are getting their shots in. Gordon backs Haqparast up to the fence and blasts him with punches to the body. Haqparast tries to get back to space, but Gordon’s pressure is stifling him. With 30 seconds to go, they clinch against the fence. They separate and Haqparast lands a good right to the chin before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
Haqparast and Gordon do not touch gloves before going at it. Rich Mitchell is your referee. Haqparast is southpaw, Gordon orthodox, and Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence, picking up a single-leg. He elevates the leg, but instead of finishing the takedown, uses his free hand to punch Haqparast’s face. Gordon lets the leg go, but scoops up another single-leg seconds later, and again uses the chance to land strikes rather than bring the fight to the floor. He loses the leg and Haqparast sticks him with a hard left. Haqparast lands another hard left, and Gordon drops levels for a takedown. This time it looks like a serious attempt, as he runs Haqparast to the fence, but Haqparast keeps his feet under him. They disengage and return to the center of the Octagon. Gordon shoots for another takedown, and again they end up against the fence. Haqparast again defends ably, and after they break, he nails Gordon with a solid right jab. Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence and they trade shots up the middle. Haqparast gets the better of it, smacking Gordon with a three-piece that hurts him. Gordon seems to recover, and the horn sounds. Haqparast scores first, with a hard overhand left that glances off the shoulder but still gets some of Gordon’s head. Gordon marches forward, but his face is showing the wear of trying to get past Haqparast’s righty jab. Gordon drops for a takedown, but Haqparast defends capably. Gordon marches forward, backing Haqparast to the cage, and nails him with two good punches before Haqparast can slide out the side. Gordon walks Haqparast down against the fence and mugs him with punches again. Haqparast is bleeding from under the left eye. There is a brief break in the action as Gordon’s left glove is losing tape. They go back to work, and Gordon feints a level change to open him up for a pair of punches upstairs. Haqparast returns fire, and both men are getting their shots in. Gordon backs Haqparast up to the fence and blasts him with punches to the body. Haqparast tries to get back to space, but Gordon’s pressure is stifling him. With 30 seconds to go, they clinch against the fence. They separate and Haqparast lands a good right to the chin before the round ends. Neither man gives any quarter in the opening moments, standing toe-to-toe and swinging away. Haqparast’s fast hands show out, as he tags Gordon with a clean southpaw one-two. Gordon changes levels and drags Haqparast to the floor, but Haqparast refuses to concede the takedown, popping right back to his feet. Gordon marches forward, landing his jab on Haqparast and backing him up. Gordon is relentless, walking down the younger man, and mixing in level changes to keep him guessing. Haqparast lands a clean jab and Gordon returns fire with a hook to the head. Haqparast hits Gordon with a short punch to the body. Gordon comes back with a left hand upstairs. Under a minute to go and it still feels like anyone’s fight. Both men are battered and exhausted. They clinch and Haqparast scores with a short elbow inside. They separate and exchange a flurry of punches. The final horn sounds on what is, so far, easily the best fight of the night.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast (29-28 Haqparast)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)

The Official Result
Nasrat Haqparast def. Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Angelo picks Nasrat, highlighting his high volume striking (6 significant strikes per minute) and solid takedown defense (78%). He notes Nasrat has power, durability, and can push a pace. He thinks Jared Gordon is sneaky good but Nasrat is the better overall fighter. He is confident in Nasrat winning straightforwardly.

"nazat lands six significant strikes per minute and that seems like a giant number... nazat though I think is just the better overall Fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Big Brady picks Nasrat Haqparast to win by second-round knockout, citing his volume and sneaky power. He questions Jared Gordon's chin, noting he has been knocked out multiple times. Brady believes Haqparast's striking will overwhelm Gordon, and if Gordon's durability holds, it could be close, but he expects a finish before that.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going to take hack brast here I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Haqparast, citing his size, boxing, and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Gordon's wrestling is less effective at 155 and that Haqparast should outpoint him. However, he warns that the line is steep and the fight could be close.

"I gota go with Nasrat Haqparast"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Daniel Vreeland picks Nasrat Haqparast confidently, highlighting his improved output and power in his left hand. He notes Gordon's durability and top control but believes Haqparast's speed, power, and athleticism will be the difference. He sees Haqparast as hitting his peak and winning a decision or knockout.

"I'm gonna pick nazat hakaras to win this fight"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Jacob picks Nasrat, calling him better everywhere with superb striking and defensive wrestling. He believes Nasrat can weather Gordon's storm and that the -240 moneyline is good value. He respects Gordon's journey but thinks Nasrat is the better fighter.

"I believe that nazat hack barass should be just about better everywhere... I believe that minus 240 money line is one of the better values on this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

JP picks Nasrat, noting his 3-fight win streak and better competition, though he worries about Nasrat's decision-making on the feet. He expects a close fight but favors Nasrat's clinch game and pressure. Brevan is more confident, predicting a KO/TKO via Nasrat's powerful overhand left. He criticizes Gordon's recent performances and believes Nasrat will out-strike him and get a finish. Both see Nasrat winning, with Brevan specifically calling for a stoppage.

Nasrat by KO/TKO
"I'm gonna go nazrat KO TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Paul picks Haqparast but is hesitant due to the price. He notes Haqparast's takedown defense is okay and his striking is solid, but Gordon could make it competitive with wrestling. Paul expects a close decision.

"I don't love laying minus 240 with hack press I do see a world in which this is really close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The MMA Guru picks Nasrat Haqparast over Jared Gordon, believing Haqparast is the better boxer and will stuff takedowns. He notes that Gordon is not a dominant grappler and that Haqparast's recent first-round TKO shows his power. He expects Haqparast to box Gordon up as the fight goes on, possibly losing the first round but winning the next two.

"I'm going to go Nazar ha prast here over Jared Gordon um I do I think and this is really annoying to me because it the problem with Jared Gordon is and nazra haar is their existence changes my opinion …"
WIN vs Mark Madsen
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 1 36 of 66 54% 54 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Mark Madsen 0 35 of 57 61% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 1 36 of 66 54% 54 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Mark Madsen 0 35 of 57 61% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 36 of 66 54% 27 of 57 5 of 5 4 of 4 22 of 51 10 of 11 4 of 4
Mark Madsen 35 of 57 61% 23 of 44 12 of 13 0 of 0 16 of 37 19 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 36 of 66 54% 27 of 57 5 of 5 4 of 4 22 of 51 10 of 11 4 of 4
Mark Madsen 35 of 57 61% 23 of 44 12 of 13 0 of 0 16 of 37 19 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo leans Gordon, reasoning that Gordon's striking is better and he can outwrestle Madsen by implementing his own game plan. He notes Madsen is one-dimensional and older, and Gordon trains with good wrestlers. He is not fully confident due to Gordon's age.

"I am going to lean Jared Gordon here and I think he could sneak something out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon by decision. He thinks Gordon has a significant striking advantage, with fast hands and high volume, and better cardio. He notes Madsen is 39 and may need to resort to wrestling, but Gordon has solid takedown defense and get-up game. Brady worries about Gordon's chin but doesn't think Madsen can knock him out.

Gordon by decision
"I'm gonna take Jared Gordon here to win this fight and this probably goes to decision so Jared Gordon by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon but is hesitant, suggesting a live bet might be better. He thinks Madsen will win the first round with wrestling but gas out, allowing Gordon to take over. He notes Gordon's durability and pace, but doesn't like the pre-fight line.

"I'm gonna take Gordon but I think you'll get the better number live"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Gordon's pace, pressure, and ability to dictate the fight will be the difference. Madsen may have early grappling success, but Gordon's BJJ background will allow him to get back to his feet and overwhelm Madsen with better striking. Expects a close fight early but Gordon to put together a better body of work in the last two rounds and win by decision.

"I believe that Gordon's Pace pressure and ability to dictate the pace will be the Difference Maker in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mark Madsen

Paul leans Madsen as a dog, having taken him at +167. He thinks Madsen's wrestling pedigree will allow him to get takedowns and control early rounds. He acknowledges Madsen's cardio issues but believes he can win the first two rounds. He notes Gordon isn't a potent finisher.

"I took plus 167 took a shot on Madson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling Mark Madsen awful. He thinks Gordon is underrated and showed improved striking against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He believes Gordon is more versatile and better on the feet, and that Madsen has no offensive grappling or striking threat.

"I think Mark madson's awful I think he's awful I really do... I think Jared Gordon's pretty underrated"
LOSS vs King Green
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R1 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 23 of 69 33% 23 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jared Gordon 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 23 of 69 33% 23 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jared Gordon 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 23 of 69 33% 15 of 56 6 of 9 2 of 4 17 of 62 0 of 1 6 of 6
Jared Gordon 17 of 53 32% 9 of 34 5 of 11 3 of 8 17 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 23 of 69 33% 15 of 56 6 of 9 2 of 4 17 of 62 0 of 1 6 of 6
Jared Gordon 17 of 53 32% 9 of 34 5 of 11 3 of 8 17 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks Bobby Green confidently, citing his superior striking and 72% takedown defense. He notes that Green has been tested by top lightweights and even in his recent loss to Drew Dober, he won the first round. He thinks Jared Gordon is undersized for lightweight and lacks one-punch knockout power, making Green a safe parlay piece.

"Bobby all day he's gonna be the much better Striker... Bobby is the pick and I think he's a safe parlay piece."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks Bobby Green to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Green is a much better striker than Gordon, who has only fought grapplers in his career. Green has incredible takedown defense and good wrestling, so Gordon's path to victory is limited. Brady expects Green to put a ton of volume on Gordon, hurt him, and knock him out early. He also mentions that Gordon has been knocked out five times before and that the judges could screw up a decision, so he prefers the finish.

first round knockout
"I'm actually going to take Bobby green to win this fight by knockout I think he's going to put it on Jared Gordon very early and I think Bobby green knocks him out within the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green despite the high price, praising his elite boxing, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Green's ability to outwork opponents and his durability, having only been knocked out by top power punchers. Cody believes Green's volume and pressure will be too much for Jared Gordon, who has a questionable chin and has been knocked out by lesser power punchers. He even suggests a Green by KO prop, as Gordon tends to get hit a lot.

Bobby Green by KO
"I will be picking Bobby green but at mine is 255. you know if Jared Gordon lands a shot and Bobby green starts going like uh shaking his head no no no that didn't hurt me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, emphasizing that Green is a superior athlete and technician. He notes that Gordon's best win was against Danny Chavez, but Green is a much tougher puzzle. He points out that Green has been schooling tough opponents and that Gordon's lack of speed and power will be exposed. He also mentions that Gordon's mental game might be off after the Pimblett fight.

"I have to pick King green here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
King Green

Bobby Green is the better striker with a significant speed advantage. His takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, where he can pick apart Jared Gordon with combinations. Gordon may have success pushing Green against the cage, but Green's footwork and movement should allow him to escape and land shots at distance. Green is motivated after a knockout loss to Drew Dober and could finish Gordon, who has shown durability issues. Green by knockout in round 2 or 3.

Green by KO in round 2 or 3
"Bobby green normally just a decision machine has the potential to land a knockout in this fight considering the striking advantage and speed advantage... I'm going to say Bobby Green Round Two or round three by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul also picks Bobby Green, arguing he should be an even bigger favorite. He highlights Green's elite boxing, footwork, and ability to avoid takedowns, noting that no one has submitted him in the UFC. Paul believes Green's volume and pressure will overwhelm Gordon, who has a weak chin and has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He thinks Green could even get a knockout.

"I think you should be a bigger favorite as far as I'm concerned I think he wins this fight fairly handily Bobby green is an elite level fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green despite his recent KO loss. He argues Green's takedown defense is good and he is levels above Paddy Pimblett on the feet, whom Gordon struggled with. He thinks Green will stuff takedowns and land at will, dominating on the feet. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26.

decision
"I'm gonna go with Bobby green over Jared Gordon... I think if you even make it look close against pimlet you ain't really that good"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green confidently, noting that Green is a slick, creative striker with excellent defensive wrestling. He points out that Gordon's best chance is to pressure and grind, but Green has shown he can handle that and counter effectively. He also mentions that Gordon lacks knockout power and that Green's recent performances show he's assertive and accurate.

"I have to pick King green here."
LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paddy Pimblett 0 63 of 155 40% 97 of 194 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Jared Gordon 0 60 of 103 58% 100 of 143 3 of 6 50% 0 0 6:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paddy Pimblett 0 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 32 of 53 60% 40 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
2 Paddy Pimblett 0 28 of 70 40% 47 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 24 of 46 52% 39 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:07
3 Paddy Pimblett 0 6 of 15 40% 21 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
Jared Gordon 0 4 of 4 100% 21 of 21 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paddy Pimblett 63 of 155 40% 33 of 122 13 of 16 17 of 17 54 of 139 8 of 15 1 of 1
Jared Gordon 60 of 103 58% 32 of 62 14 of 27 14 of 14 53 of 94 5 of 6 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paddy Pimblett 29 of 70 41% 16 of 55 2 of 4 11 of 11 28 of 69 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jared Gordon 32 of 53 60% 17 of 28 7 of 17 8 of 8 30 of 50 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Paddy Pimblett 28 of 70 40% 13 of 54 11 of 12 4 of 4 24 of 64 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 24 of 46 52% 13 of 32 5 of 8 6 of 6 20 of 41 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Paddy Pimblett 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 4 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 4 of 4 100% 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Paddy Pimblett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-250), Gordon (+210)

Round 1
The co-main event for this pay-per-view card is an unranked lightweight affair between boisterous Liverpudlian Pimblett (19-3, 3-0 UFC) and his relatively soft-spoken counterpart Gordon (19-5, 7-4 UFC). The UFC wants a star out of Pimblett, and they are building him up in a measured manner instead of throwing him to the top-ranked wolves. Many view Gordon as the next step up in competition. The third man in the Octagon for this pairing is referee Herb Dean, and they do decide to touch gloves even after some back-and-forth between the two. Pimblett crowds the American and kicks the side early, and he fires off a head kick and strings several punches together as Gordon shells up. Gordon, seemingly the smaller man by a wide margin, leaps forward to belt Pimblett in the face with a left hand. Pimblett wears it well and gets rocked with a left hand, and he is retreating as Gordon advances. Pimblett, with his head high and a tall stance, absorbs another left hand and a low kick to mix things up. The two trade leg kicks, with Gordon putting his hips into them as Pimblett resets and fires one off to respond. Gordon sticks “The Baddy” with two more left hooks, and Pimblett darts away and recovers to score two punches. In a flash, “Flash” rocks Pimblett with an overhand right, and he walks through a calf kick to get off another left. Pimblett lines several punches up one after the other, and Gordon blocks some while others split his guard. Pimblett ducks low to avoid a looping punch buzzing his way, and he swats away the arms before Gordon can slug him again. Pimblett jabs and flips out two high kicks in rapid succession, and Gordon keeps his guard high to defend the rest that follows. Gordon absorbs part of a jumping high kick, and he responds with a body kick and a left hook. Pimblett has two punches and a kick bounce off the guard, but his left hand gets through. Gordon does not slow, connecting with a big left and a calf kick. Pimblett pushes Gordon back with a head kick that is blocked, only for Gordon to respond with power. Gordon gets stung with a counter and ducks down for a single, but Pimblett slithers his leg away in time. Gordon marches his man down and lands a left hand, and he counters a takedown by push Pimblett flat on his back. Pimblett threatens with a high guard that does not turn into anything, while Gordon lands a few punches before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 2
Gordon claims the center of the cage and advances to throw hands, while Pimblett keeps his range and tosses out high kicks. Pimblett lobs a right hook that skims off the guard, and Gordon chips at the calf a few times. Pimblett gets a head kick through, and he is answered by two swarming punches from his foe. Gordon absorbs a body kick and then takes a front kick so he can close in and club Pimblett in the face with a left, but Pimblett sticks and moves. The Brit sneaks in an uppercut as Gordon gives chase, and Gordon checks a kick and tries to initiate a brawl. Pimblett gets the worst of the exchange and tries to escape out the back door, and he gets his chin checked with a powerful left hook. Gordon grabs hold of a single, and when he puts Pimblett down, Pimblett defends with an arm-triangle choke that is a sort of a side-naked choke, but Gordon is calm and does not fall into danger. Pimblett walks up the cage wall, and short offense on the inside opens a cut on the hairline of “Flash.” Gordon attempts another takedown, and Pimblett stuffs it and punches Gordon in the back of the head repeatedly. Gordon stays pressed tightly to his man before suddenly breaking free and blasting Pimblett in the face with two punches. Gordon gets cracked with a right, but he fires off a left to back Pimblett off. A few Pimblett punches collide with the guard, and they trade low kicks until Gordon pushes forward in pursuit of a takedown. Pimblett defends against the wall and elbows the side of the head until Gordon bails on it, and Gordon grinds his man until Pimblett shoves him away. Pimblett unloads with two punches and sneaks up a head kick, but Gordon is right there to brawl away with him. Pimblett pushes off with his fingers out, and one jams into Gordon’s eye to cause a pause with 15 seconds left in the round. Pimblett receives a hard warning for his fingers stretching out or poking out, and they resume with a slugfest. Pimblett catches Gordon at the end of a right hand, and he loads up on a few punches and a front kick until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
The lightweights touch gloves to initiate the final frame, and Gordon advances while Pimblett defends a potential takedown. Gordon clasps his hands and dumps the Brit on his face, and Pimblett defends with a kimura. Pimblett climbs back up and is lifted with a knee, and he puts his hands on the mat to take knees on the jaw out of the equation. Gordon aggressively pursues a double, and Pimblett considers a front choke but cannot find the neck when Gordon switches things up for a single. The grind is firmly embraced by “Flash,” who settles for heavy shoulder pressure and takedown tries, while Pimblett is stifled to little more than an elbow or a knee. Gordon suddenly changes levels for a double, and this fails as Pimblett elbows him in the back of the head. Dean calls for the fighters to work, and Pimblett explodes to break away. Gordon scores a left hook, and he powers forward with a second before jamming Pimblett up against the wire. Gordon squeezes and clings to the Brit, and he trips Pimblett out to his knees but cannot ground him. Gordon pursues a double, and he ends up settling to trip Pimblett out and dump him to the floor. Pimblett slides out the back door and looks to take dominant position, but Gordon bursts back upright as Pimblett holds onto him. Pimblett lands a short knee on the inside and gets wrenched to his knees, and Pimblett jumps on to take his back as the fight ends. We have reached the judges’ scorecards for the first time of the night, and scores could definitely go either way depending on how the second and third rounds were evaluated. Either way, the meteoric rise of Pimblett has definitely hit a speed bump in the form of “Flash” Gordon, win or lose.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)

The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Angelo picks Pimblett, believing he is the better striker and grappler. He notes that Pimblett outgrappled Jordan Leavitt, who was considered a better grappler. However, he warns that Gordon has legit wrestling and could take Pimblett down and hold him there, as Leavitt took him down three times. He suggests the best bet is Pimblett inside the distance (decision no action) if the odds are reasonable.

Best bet: Pimblett inside the distance (decision no action) if odds are favorable.
"Patty's gonna be the better Striker better Grappler and he just needs to make sure he isn't just held on his back the whole time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett, citing his power and dangerous grappling, while noting Jared Gordon's poor durability and lack of finishing ability. He expects Pimblett to hurt Gordon on the feet or lock in a submission, likely in the second round. He does not agree with the -250 price but sees Pimblett as the more likely finisher.

Pimblett wins by second round submission (club and sub)
"I'm gonna take pimlic to win I'll say a second round like a club and sub and I think he gives Jared Gordon his sixth submission loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Cody picks Paddy despite acknowledging he has been fading him in previous fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling, back-taking, and rear-naked choke are key, and that Paddy has a massive reach advantage. He notes Paddy's durability and wild style but believes Jared Gordon is not the guy to expose him. He expects Paddy to use grappling to grind out a decision or late submission.

"I still got a side with with Patty and I just think that is the gonna be the counter um grappling of Jared Gordon that I'll probably let them down"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Connor picks Pimblett, reasoning that Gordon is not a powerful striker and will fall into clinch scrambles where Pimblett is dangerous. He notes Gordon repeatedly gives up his back on the mat, and Pimblett is a skilled backtake artist. Connor is hesitant but believes Gordon's flaws will lead to a submission loss.

Odds: Pimblett opened +125, dropped to -170, now -259; Gordon opened -145, now +208.
"I'll pick Patty because the problem for Jared is he's not going to finish Patty on the feet and he is going to fall into him and something stupid is going to happen."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett to win inside the distance, though he expects Jared Gordon to be competitive early. He notes Gordon's superior volume and top control, but believes Pimblett is a 'big moment fighter' who can turn the tide with a knockdown or submission. Levi thinks Gordon may win the first round or two, but Pimblett will eventually find a finish. He does not bet this fight, preferring to watch.

Picks Pimblett to win inside the distance. No bet placed.
"I got Patty to win this fight inside the distance after overcoming some very sketchy moments and possibly being down on cards"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Lock picks Jared Gordon as his dog of the night, believing his style will give Paddy fits. He thinks Gordon will keep his foot on the gas, push the pace, box, and grind out a decision, as long as he stays conscious. He notes that Paddy has faced adversity in every UFC fight but Gordon is the best fighter he's faced. Lock likes the betting line at +217 and sees a possible pump and dump on PredictionStrike at 80 cents, though he acknowledges Gordon has a ceiling.

dog of the night play
"I got shared Gordon as my dog of the Night play uh this weekend I I do think he has a style to give Patty the baddies some fits"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul leans towards Jared Gordon as a dog, having faded Paddy in all his UFC fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling defense is suspect and he has been hurt in fights. He notes Gordon's skills and value at plus money, but is hesitant because Paddy has won close fights before. He is pot-committed to fading Paddy but acknowledges the risk.

"I'm such a sucker for it at some point I'm probably gonna end up with money on Jared Gordon I'm not gonna lie"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Jared Gordon by rear-naked choke. He expects Gordon to be winning early with cage pressure, but Pimblett's speed and power will catch Gordon, leading to a scramble where Pimblett takes the back and chokes him out. He notes the odds are too wide and considers it a close fight, but believes Pimblett's finishing ability prevails.

Pimblett should be around -180, not -250; fight is close
"I'm gonna go with Paddy pimlet here and I'm gonna go with Paddy pimlic by real naked joke"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Zane reluctantly picks Pimblett, agreeing with Connor that Gordon will give up his back in scrambles. He notes Gordon is a better wrestler but Pimblett will let himself be taken down to create grappling exchanges. Zane is not confident, saying if Gordon loses it's his own fault.

Odds: Pimblett opened +125, now -259; Gordon opened -145, now +208.
"All right, fine. I'll take Patty Pimblett. I don't like it."
Joe Solecki - Fight History
LOSS vs Nurullo Aliev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nurullo Aliev 0 35 of 88 39% 81 of 150 2 of 2 100% 0 0 8:13
Joe Solecki 0 28 of 68 41% 52 of 98 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nurullo Aliev 0 2 of 5 40% 17 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Joe Solecki 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nurullo Aliev 0 9 of 29 31% 35 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Joe Solecki 0 5 of 13 38% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Nurullo Aliev 0 24 of 54 44% 29 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Solecki 0 21 of 51 41% 30 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nurullo Aliev 35 of 88 39% 29 of 81 5 of 6 1 of 1 26 of 65 1 of 2 8 of 21
Joe Solecki 28 of 68 41% 24 of 60 1 of 4 3 of 4 26 of 65 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nurullo Aliev 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Joe Solecki 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nurullo Aliev 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 1 of 2 6 of 18
Joe Solecki 5 of 13 38% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nurullo Aliev 24 of 54 44% 18 of 47 5 of 6 1 of 1 24 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Solecki 21 of 51 41% 18 of 45 0 of 2 3 of 4 19 of 48 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Angelo picks Nurullo Aliev, citing his dominant wrestling and effective jab that sets up takedowns. He notes that Aliev's style is reminiscent of Khabib, though without the same accomplishments. Angelo acknowledges that Aliev's opponent, Yanal Ashmoz (likely Joe Solecki), is well-rounded and has been a successful underdog pick in the past, but he believes Aliev's wrestling will be too much. He expects a straightforward win via takedowns and control leading to a decision.

Aliev in a parlay (other half not specified)
"I'm going to go with narula alive hopefully no more cannibal activities with the biting I just think the wrestling's too good that jab is going to be right in his face"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Big Brady sees this as one of the easiest fights on the card. He expects Aliev to get takedowns and control the fight on the ground, while Solecki is content to be on his back and throw up submission attempts. He notes that Solecki has a history of losing minutes and being taken down, as seen in the Dawson fight. Brady predicts Aliev wins by decision, as he is not a finisher but will dominate positionally.

"it's going to be Nilla alv getting a takedown and Joe SEI laying on his back and throwing up submission attempts for 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Cody picks Aliev but with low confidence due to the two-year layoff and inflated line. He notes Solecki's submission threat and Aliev's low volume. He advises passing or using Aliev only in deep parlays, calling it a trap line.

"this sounds like a trap line it honestly looks like a trap line to me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Daniel thinks Aliev's grinding Russian style and takedowns will be too much for Solecki, who pulls guard and has cardio concerns on short notice. He notes Solecki's Jiu-Jitsu is a threat early but will fade. He believes the -600 price is justified and picks Aliev confidently.

"I'm going Pick N alab to win that fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Aliev's wrestling-heavy approach will keep him safe against Solecki's BJJ black belt, allowing him to grind out a decision win. He hasn't fought since February 2023 due to a leg injury, but his style should neutralize Solecki's grappling.

"I think his wrestling heavy approach here will allow him to stay safe against the BJJ black Bel of Joe SEI allowing alv to grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Paul picks Aliev but is not confident, citing the layoff and Solecki's grappling. He notes Solecki's one-dimensional style but potential to catch a submission. He prefers to pass on this fight.

"it's probably just a straight up pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

The Guru picks Aliev, noting Solecki took the fight on short notice and hasn't been training for a fight (only a grappling match in November). He thinks Aliev is a lot better and will out-grapple Solecki or get a TKO. He suggests there might be value on an Aliev TKO.

TKO
"I am going to have to go with nurillo aliev however um because I think he's a lot better than Joe seli"
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 46 of 70 65% 146 of 190 3 of 3 100% 0 0 13:46
Joe Solecki 0 12 of 19 63% 27 of 35 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 7 of 11 63% 34 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:42
Joe Solecki 0 2 of 2 100% 6 of 6 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:14
2 Grant Dawson 0 17 of 25 68% 51 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
Joe Solecki 0 4 of 6 66% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Grant Dawson 0 22 of 34 64% 61 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
Joe Solecki 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 46 of 70 65% 39 of 62 6 of 7 1 of 1 7 of 14 1 of 1 38 of 55
Joe Solecki 12 of 19 63% 10 of 17 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 11 1 of 3 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 10
Joe Solecki 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Grant Dawson 17 of 25 68% 15 of 22 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 19
Joe Solecki 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Grant Dawson 22 of 34 64% 18 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 1 17 of 26
Joe Solecki 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 1 of 3 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-410), Solecki (+320)

Round 1
The prelims roll on with an interesting stylistic clash of grapplers in the lightweight category. Coming off his first loss since 2016, it will be interesting to see how Dawson (20-2-1, 8-1-1 UFC) rebounds—he smoked Christian Camp in his bounce-back effort after dropping his first fight. Hailing from about 90 minutes southwest of the Prudential Center, Solecki (13-4, 5-2 UFC) will be his adversary, and the crowd roars in approval of their home state fighter. Referee Jason Herzog can scarcely hear himself think, but he starts the fight anyway. Taking a page out of the playbook of Jorge Masvidal, Dawson sprints at Solecki and leaps at him with a flying knee. Solecki plays the matador to let him slide past him, and he drags Dawson down from behind and threatens with a guillotine choke. Dawson resets to break out of the submission setup and takes top position, and Solecki readjusts to lock the choke down and gets a hook around the side. Solecki briefly claims mount with the choke set, and Dawson continues to shift and move until he breaks out of the choke. Dawson keeps tight chest pressure when he resides on top, and Solecki hacks at him from off his back with elbows. Dawson postures up, and he lowers himself down to soften the body up. Solecki defends from anything of merit landing from above, and he carves Dawson open with an elbow. Dawson may hold top position, but he is not winning in practically any of the exchanges. Dawson bleeds down on Solecki and tries to open up on ground-and-pound, and he manages to get off a few elbows of his own. Dawson lands a few more hammerfists and punches, and when the horn sounds, he helps Solecki up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Solecki

Round 2
Dawson starts off the round aggressively, punching his way into closing the distance. Solecki flails back, but he gets pushed back towards the wall and is forced to defend a takedown. “KGD” easily grounds Solecki, where he lands in the guard and starts to rack up more top control time. Dawson grinds his elbow on the forehead, and as he holds Solecki down, the crowd boos his lackluster approach. Dawson winds up with a powerful elbow, slashing down at Solecki, and he sporadically works with strikes. Dawson finds an opening to land three right hands after a Solecki fails, and he smacks Solecki around from any angle he can find. Solecki is unable to offer any offense of his own, and a submission is nowhere to be found. Dawson cannot pass guard, but he keeps Solecki down and stays just active enough to stave off a Herzog standup. Dawson stands up to drop down a few standing-to-ground punches, and the momentum drives him back into the tie-up. Dawson makes life miserable for the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 3
The lightweights clap hands to open up the final round, and Solecki runs at him and shoots for a single-leg takedown. As Dawson staves it off, Solecki whips a body kick at him, but it is too low and smashes straight into Dawson’s cup. Dawson groans and drops to a knee, and Herzog calls time. Dawson does not take long before he is ready to go again, and he proceeds to drive Solecki to the wall upon restart. Solecki swings, and Dawson ducks and secures a takedown like a hot knife through butter. Dawson does not care to shift to half guard, and he ignores a guillotine setup so he can line up ground strikes. Solecki is stuck with no options, kept with his upper back pressed on the wall and trapped in a position that allows him no offense or escape. Dawson completely nullifies him, but he cannot get any further than the full guard of his foe. Solecki uses a butterfly guard to prevent Dawson from advancing beyond that posture, but he eats three elbows during one exchange. Dawson stands up in an effort to push through the guard, and he rains down punches from on high until leaps into the guard again. “KGD” answers Herzog’s call for action by elbowing and punching Solecki a few times, and the grind has been firmly embraced. Solecki kicks off and gets to his knees with seconds to go, and Dawson nearly knees him illegally in this position. The lackluster fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Joe Solecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Angelo picks Grant Dawson because he believes whoever shoots first will win, and Dawson is more willing to dive at legs immediately. He thinks the jiu-jitsu will cancel out, so wrestling will decide it. He also notes that Dawson's recent knockout loss will make him even more eager to wrestle. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds is 'rock solid'
"I think Grant Dawson wins because he's going to wrestle first because he'll get that takedown and then the Jiu-Jitsu from there is even"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Grant Dawson

Big Brady likes Grant Dawson as a GPP play, expecting him to be lower owned. He highlights Dawson's big wrestling advantage, with takedowns and control time leading to ground strikes. He thinks Dawson could get a late finish in the third round. He sees Dawson's path to victory as a ton of takedowns and control.

Grant Dawson wins by decision or late finish
"I don't mind some Dawson 9,300 I think he's going to be much much lower owned than Islam mahv"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Cody picks Dawson, criticizing Solecki's lack of improvement and one-dimensional jiu-jitsu. He notes Solecki's striking and wrestling are poor, and he has not evolved his game. Cody highlights Dawson's wins over Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen, and believes Dawson will take Solecki down and grind him out. He calls Solecki a 'Chase Hooper type' who can't get the fight to the ground.

"Solecki is still young but he's not advancing his skills... Dawson meanwhile was on a nice little run... this is a Grant Dawson type fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Daniel is not a Dawson believer, citing his poor striking and chin issues. He notes Solecki is a better striker but lacks confidence and may pull guard. He reluctantly picks Dawson but says it's dog or pass.

"I guess I'll lean Dawson"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

The host believes Dawson is better everywhere and will dominate Solecki with relentless wrestling and top control. Solecki's submission threat off his back is overrated, and his striking is rudimentary. Dawson should control the pace and position, winning a decision or possibly finding a finish. The host is confident Dawson bounces back emphatically.

"I really like Dawson in the spot... I think he's a guy that's going to go out there and have a smack performance here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Paul picks Dawson, noting the stylistic matchup favors Dawson's grappling and cardio. He believes Dawson's volume and physicality will overwhelm Solecki, who lacks striking and wrestling. Paul mentions Dawson's only recent loss was a flash KO to Bobby Green, and he expects Dawson to get back on track. He added Dawson to a parlay at -350.

"I think this is just a Grant Dawson obviously got a little bit exposed last time out but this is a very solid matchup for him... I like this fight stylistically for Grant Dawson."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, noting that Joe Solecki is coming off a bad KO loss and lacks the ability to inflict pain on the feet. He believes Dawson has better standup and grappling, and that Solecki's jiu-jitsu won't be enough. He predicts Dawson by decision, 29-28.

"I' got to go with Grant Dawson um lot of things to consider here you know about Joe S he's coming in off a KO loss"
LOSS vs Drakkar Klose
KO (slam) R1 1:41 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drakkar Klose 0 2 of 2 100% 8 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Joe Solecki 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drakkar Klose 0 2 of 2 100% 8 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Joe Solecki 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drakkar Klose 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Joe Solecki 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drakkar Klose 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Joe Solecki 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Cody picks Solecki as an underdog. He thinks Solecki's grappling and back-taking ability will be key. He notes Klose's takedown defense issues and age (35) coming off a knee injury. He believes Solecki can win the positional battle and control the fight. He calls it a shoey bet.

"seli screams like a dog with a shot because I think he can win the positional battle he can get those takedowns close has got the knee injury the year-long layoff 35 years old take down defense issues in the …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Lucrative James picks Joe Solecki, emphasizing that Drakkar Klose consistently gives up his back in fights, which is a bad stylistic matchup against a grappler like Solecki. He believes Solecki will take Klose's back and either submit him or win rounds through control. While Klose may have an edge on the feet, Solecki's grappling upside makes him the favorite.

"it's almost guaranteed that Joe's going to take his back at one point you know which sounds crazy but he's I've just seen it way too many times"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

Klose has a solid wrestling and pressure game, and stylistically he has advantages over Solecki in striking and grappling. However, he is returning from an ACL injury at 35 years old, which raises concerns about his knee recovery. Solecki is a BJJ black belt but has shown limited offense off his back and unimpressive striking. Klose is expected to dictate the pace and win a decision, but confidence is tempered due to the injury.

decision win predicted
"give me close I think close by decision uh and I think we see him come back successfully but I would just be weary in terms of the amount of confidence that you have in him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

Paul already bet Klose at -120. He thinks Klose has significant advantages on the feet and trains with good partners. He is surprised the line is still playable. He notes Klose's only UFC losses are to Beneil Dariush and David Teymur, and he believes Klose should win.

"I like jar close here I'm kind of surprised by this line I bet it like uh three or four day or my one buddy uh Mick reached out and I kind of looked into it and then I ended …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The MMA Guru picks Drakkar Klose, noting Klose's technical striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He dismisses Joe Solecki's level of competition and believes Klose does the basics better. He expects a close decision, 29-28, in Klose's favor.

decision 29-28
"I'm going to go Drakkar Klose win... I don't think Joe Solecki is all that good... Drakkar Klose just does the basic stuff better than Joe Solecki."
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Solecki 0 2 of 8 25% 49 of 67 2 of 3 66% 3 0 8:51
Carl Deaton III 0 1 of 12 8% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Solecki 0 2 of 4 50% 14 of 18 1 of 2 50% 2 0 4:26
Carl Deaton III 0 0 of 6 0% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joe Solecki 0 0 of 4 0% 35 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:25
Carl Deaton III 0 1 of 6 16% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Solecki 2 of 8 25% 1 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
Carl Deaton III 1 of 12 8% 1 of 10 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Solecki 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0
Carl Deaton III 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joe Solecki 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carl Deaton III 1 of 6 16% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Solecki. He describes Deaton as having a striking style that is very difficult for him to pull off, with low output and awkward movement. He notes that Solecki is a good wrestler and grappler who will dominate once he gets to his positions.

"Very, very straightforward pick."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Zane picks Solecki, stating that Solecki will easily take Deaton down and choke him out. He notes that Deaton's striking is limited and awkward, and that Solecki will have an easy time getting to his positions. He also mentions that Deaton's win over Justin James is not meaningful, as James was on a losing streak.

"I just got to pick Joe's lucky to go out there and wrestle him down and choke him out."
Decision (majority) (28–28, 28–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Solecki 0 33 of 82 40% 91 of 144 1 of 4 25% 3 0 4:51
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 35 of 76 46% 54 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Solecki 0 3 of 5 60% 24 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:11
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 6 of 8 75% 17 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:32
2 Joe Solecki 0 3 of 4 75% 31 of 34 1 of 2 50% 2 0 4:40
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 1 of 3 33% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Joe Solecki 0 27 of 73 36% 36 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 28 of 65 43% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Solecki 33 of 82 40% 32 of 81 0 of 0 1 of 1 30 of 77 1 of 3 2 of 2
Alex da Silva Coelho 35 of 76 46% 20 of 58 11 of 12 4 of 6 29 of 67 1 of 2 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Solecki 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex da Silva Coelho 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Joe Solecki 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joe Solecki 27 of 73 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 1 of 1 26 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 0
Alex da Silva Coelho 28 of 65 43% 16 of 50 9 of 10 3 of 5 25 of 60 1 of 2 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alex da Silva Coelho

Angelo calls this a very close fight. Joe Solecki is a grappler with clean boxing but lost to more technical strikers. Alex da Silva is a slick striker with power and good wrestling. Angelo notes the odds favor Solecki at -165 but thinks da Silva may have the edge in power and willingness to wrestle first. He is torn but leans da Silva, and considers a +3.5 round buy bet.

considering a plus 3.5 round buy bet on da Silva
"this pick is really hard and i think i'm leaning alex here but i might change that later in the week i'm really really torn here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alex da Silva Coelho

Big Brady picks Alex da Silva Coelho to win by decision as an underdog. He thinks da Silva is the better striker and well-rounded, but his main concern is cardio, as da Silva has faded in past fights. He is hoping da Silva has improved his gas tank during his 20-month layoff. He notes that Solecki is a BJJ black belt but da Silva has good grappling and wrestling. He believes da Silva can win the first two rounds and possibly hold on for a decision, but is not overly confident.

da Silva by decision
"I will take to silva i'm hoping and banking on him hoping hoping to make improvements here in terms of the cardio"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Cody picks Solecki, noting his BJJ black belt and wrestling. He thinks da Silva's cardio issues will be exploited and Solecki will take his back. He is confident in Solecki's grappling advantage.

"i think eventually he finds the back puts the body triangle in and just wears on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing his consistent grappling and fight IQ. He acknowledges Alex da Silva's talent but notes his cardio issues and mental lapses. He sees Solecki as the safer pick but does not see value at -170, so he will not bet it. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"pure pick solecki just because i think he's proven a little bit more and because i think he kind of know he's kind of comfortable with who he is as a fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Paul picks Solecki, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes da Silva's tendency to gas and thinks Solecki will take his back and submit him or win a decision. He likes the price and expects Solecki to find a submission in the later rounds.

Solecki by submission or decision
"i'm leaning towards selecting by decision but to be honest a selective third round submission something like that wouldn't surprise me either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, though his analysis is brief and somewhat incoherent due to illness. He states he doesn't see Alex da Silva Coelho out-grappling Solecki and references Coelho's loss to Yakovlev. He calls Solecki a 'good grappler' and implies he will win, but does not provide a specific method or round.

"i'm gonna go with joe salecki he's a [ __ ] good grapp"
LOSS vs Jared Gordon
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 0 38 of 69 55% 70 of 102 4 of 7 57% 0 0 6:03
Joe Solecki 0 51 of 86 59% 83 of 122 1 of 2 50% 0 1 4:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 0 10 of 10 100% 35 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:58
Joe Solecki 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Jared Gordon 0 3 of 3 100% 7 of 8 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:05
Joe Solecki 0 16 of 16 100% 40 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:38
3 Jared Gordon 0 25 of 56 44% 28 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Solecki 0 34 of 69 49% 37 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 38 of 69 55% 31 of 62 5 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 56 4 of 4 9 of 9
Joe Solecki 51 of 86 59% 32 of 60 12 of 18 7 of 8 33 of 68 15 of 15 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 10 of 10 100% 10 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 9
Joe Solecki 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jared Gordon 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Solecki 16 of 16 100% 15 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 11 of 11 3 of 3
3 Jared Gordon 25 of 56 44% 19 of 50 5 of 5 1 of 1 22 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
Joe Solecki 34 of 69 49% 17 of 45 10 of 16 7 of 8 30 of 65 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Joe Solecki

Round 1
Seemingly in the blink of an eye, we have reached the preliminary headliner, which comes at lightweight between ex-CFFC champ Gordon (17-4, 5-3 UFC) and fellow CFFC vet Solecki (11-2, 3-0 UFC). Someone’s win streak here will come to an end, and referee Dan Miragliotta will be the first person to find out who that will be. There is a respectful touch of gloves to start off the contest, and they are tense and ready to pull the trigger. When Gordon tries to start off the fight with a knee, Solecki quickly takes him down and assumes full mount about 30 seconds into the bout. Gordon tries to kick him off, so Solecki scoots him to the fence and starts to pound on him from above. Solecki sits in a heavy side control, and Gordon responds by walking off the wall. This is not the best strategy, as Solecki gets one hook in and then the other, fully taking the back of “Flash” in a flash. Solecki whacks Gordon on the side of the head a few times to soften him up and open the neck up for submission, and then elects to squeeze with a face crank when that is not there. As Gordon fights off the grip and kicks off the fence, Solecki smacks him upside the head a few times. Solecki wraps his arm around the chin of his opponent, and he switches arms and the forearm slides under the chin briefly. Gordon is able to fight out of it, but he is still being controlled and taking strikes as he rolls around. In these harsh scrambles, both men suffer serious mat burn on their knees and elbows, and Gordon stands up against the fence. Solecki welcomes this by jumping guard with a guillotine choke, and he drags Gordon down to the ground. “Flash” is able to slowly pull his neck free, and he thinks about paying Solecki back with some strikes before choosing to grind his forehead into his foe’s chin instead. Gordon gets off a few short elbows, and ends the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Solecki

Round 2
The gloves get touched to begin the second round, and Gordon tries to lure a firefight but Solecki grabs hold of him and grounds him 10 seconds into the frame. Gordon springs back to his feet thanks to the wall, and he defends with a guillotine choke as Solecki shoots low with a takedown. Solecki pulls the leg out and gets Gordon down again, but they both pop back up after an exchange. Solecki grinds his foe against the wall, and Gordon tries to gain some space with some snappy elbows. Gordon keeps ringing his opponent’s bell with elbows, and this keeps Solecki from getting him down. Solecki drags him from one side of the cage to the other, and he ties Gordon’s legs up to hit a trip and put “Flash” on the mat. Gordon stays active, and he turns about so that he can put Solecki’s back to the floor. Gordon stays in Solecki’s full guard as he lands a few punches from up close, and he fights off a sweep attempt to keep Solecki grounded. A strike from below cuts Gordon on the top of his head, but he pays it no mind as he works Solecki over and smothers him with top control. Miragliotta asks them to work after a stalemate, and Gordon answers his call with a single heavy elbow before getting pulled back to a tight full guard. Gordon rides this position out to the bell, putting an end to a close and grinding round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
The last round begins with a glove touch, and this time, Gordon does not succumb to a takedown immediately. Instead, Gordon walks Solecki down and lands a few punches. Solecki tries to go to the body, but Gordon sticks and moves. Solecki does step in with a body kick, but Gordon ignores it so that he can stick his jab in Solecki’s face. Gordon dodges and weaves the counter strikes as he picks and pokes at his opponent, landing a few right hands that get Solecki’s attention. Solecki eats a body kick and ducks out of the way from a couple punches that follow. Gordon sits down on a big punch, and Solecki lets rip a leg kick that makes Gordon pull his leg back quickly. Gordon again tags Solecki with an overhand right, and they bump into one another but Solecki does not try to take the fight down. In a flash, “Flash” shoots in for a takedown of his own, and Solecki stuffs it and gets back to striking range. Gordon again closes in on him to try to drag the fight down, and he trips the leg down to put Solecki on his back briefly. Solecki springs back up, and Gordon lets him get to his feet so that he can land at range. “Flash” triples up on his jab, and he strings together a combination as Solecki is fired up and wants to start trading finally. Solecki uses the strikes to come in close, and they clash heads, opening a large cut on Gordon’s temple that starts to bleed profusely. On the other side, Solecki’s eyebrow towards his nose is split open, and both fight through it without noticing. Gordon walks Solecki down and tries to land a bomb, and Solecki catches him on the way in and tags him with a left. The fight ends with a striking exchange, and it may be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Joe Solecki via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Angelo picks Joe Solecki, but with hesitation. He notes that Solecki is a very good grappler with clean boxing, while Jared Gordon is a wrestler who may be intimidated to take the fight to the ground due to Solecki's BJJ. However, Gordon has fought higher competition and has better offensive wrestling. Angelo thinks Solecki's path is via submission, but he wouldn't be shocked if Gordon wins by decision. He likes the less less monkey knife fight pick and may bet on Solecki inside the distance with decision no action.

less less monkey knife fight, considering inside the distance decision no action bet on Solecki
"joe selecci's the pick because i think jared may be intimidated with the takedowns but i would not be shocked if jared's like i don't care comes out there throw some bombs"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon to win by decision, siding with the veteran despite liking Joe Solecki's upside. He notes Gordon has never been outgrappled in the UFC and has good takedown defense and grappling himself (brown belt). Solecki is a BJJ black belt with improving striking, but his wins are over lesser competition (Jim Miller, Austin Hubbard, Matt Wyman). Brady thinks Gordon has the striking advantage and more experience, and that Solecki won't find takedowns as easy as against previous opponents. He calls it a tough fight but takes the dog.

Gordon by decision
"i'm going to side with jared gordon i'm going to take jared gordon to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon as a dog, citing his improved speed and cardio after switching to Sanford MMA. He notes that Gordon has a history of drug abuse but has reinvented himself and looked much better in his last fight. He believes Gordon's pressure, cardio, and grappling will be too much for Solecki, who struggled against Jim Miller's wrestling.

"jared gordon will be under dog number do i only got two dogs at this point regardless jared gordon is dog number two"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Daniel Levi picks Jared Gordon as an underdog, citing Gordon's heavy top pressure (described as 'Khabib-level' by training partners) and better stand-up technique. He is concerned about Solecki's guard-pulling in his last fight, which could be disastrous against Gordon's top game. Levi acknowledges Solecki's improving hands and submission threat but thinks Gordon's experience and pressure will earn him a split decision.

"give me a chair gordon for the upside here i think he's the more experienced guy you're super heavy on top"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

I have huge conviction on Gordon here. Solecki has been fed favorable matchups against wrestlers with poor jiu-jitsu defense, but Gordon is a different beast. Gordon is a better wrestler, has excellent jiu-jitsu defense, and will push a relentless pace. On the feet, Gordon has a clear edge. I bet 4 units on Gordon moneyline and like Gordon by decision at +250.

Gordon by decision +250
"I bet him big i have four units on him on the money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gordon as a dog. He notes that Gordon has a significant size advantage and better cardio. He is concerned about Gordon's chin but believes his pressure and grappling will be key. He plans to bet on Gordon after the show.

"after we get off the show i'm gonna throw some money on jared gordon because sounds like we're on the same page here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, noting that Jared Gordon's size advantage will be negated at lightweight. He also questions Gordon's chin, as he has been KO'd multiple times. Solecki has good grappling, as shown in his win over Jim Miller. He predicts Solecki will win by unanimous decision 29-28.

"i'm going to be going with joe salecki here i think he's a good favorite to take"
WIN vs Jim Miller
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Solecki 0 11 of 34 32% 45 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:03
Jim Miller 0 19 of 42 45% 93 of 146 1 of 4 25% 0 0 9:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Solecki 0 9 of 28 32% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:03
Jim Miller 0 16 of 36 44% 17 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Joe Solecki 0 2 of 5 40% 18 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 2 of 3 66% 41 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:39
3 Joe Solecki 0 0 of 1 0% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 1 of 3 33% 35 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Solecki 11 of 34 32% 7 of 26 2 of 4 2 of 4 9 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 1
Jim Miller 19 of 42 45% 12 of 33 2 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Solecki 9 of 28 32% 6 of 22 1 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 1
Jim Miller 16 of 36 44% 10 of 29 2 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Joe Solecki 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joe Solecki 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Joe Solecki

Round 1
A chasm of experience separates these lightweights tapped to headline the prelims, as fan-favorite Miller (32-15, 1 NC; 21-14, 1 NC UFC) sets the all-time UFC appearance record at 37 by simply stepping in the cage against fellow grappler Solecki (10-2, 2-0 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this key preliminary matchup is referee Herb Dean, and we see a respectful touch of gloves to lead things off. Miller comes out first with a reaching right hand, but it is Solecki that lands first with a quick combination and a slapping leg kick. The two engage in a brief brawl in the center of the cage, and Solecki gets off another kick. Once more there is a clinch battle with a flurry of fists and feet, and Miller takes one on the chin and gets pushed into the fence. Solecki comes up short with an overhand right, but the leg kick scores again. Miller swings wildly with a pair of hooks, and Solecki steps back and takes a sweeping leg kick. Solecki gets off a one-two, and he fires a body kick as he avoids an overhand right counter. Miller comes in with a shovel uppercut, and that and a head kick get blocked. Solecki nails Miller with a right hand, and the longtime vet eats it like a grinder. Solecki again plants his foot on Miller’s torso, and Miller’s reply hits nothing but air. Miller steps in with a leg kick, and a pair of big punches miss the mark as Solecki circles out of danger. Miller wades forward to sneak in a right hand, and when Solecki aims for a takedown, Miller pushes him over and climbs into the full guard. Solecki scoots his way to the fence while Miller is trying to find some offense from on top, and Miller instead uses this angle between the floor and the fence to keep Solecki trapped. Solecki blocks strikes and cannot kick off, as Miller begins to drop down a few punches. Miller continues to grind out his foe in this position, and he lands a few body shots while Solecki holds on tight with all his might. The round ends with Miller on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The New Jersey natives touch hands to clock in the second frame, and Miller rushes forward to throw hands. Miller catches Solecki with a left hand as he closes the distance, and Solecki drops down for a single leg as Miller defends it against the fence. As Solecki changes levels to take the fight all the way down, Miller cracks him with a knee but still falls to his back. Miller employs a rubber guard immediately, using his left leg to hook the shoulder for a brief spell. Solecki looks to pass guard but Miller does not allow him to do so, instead dragging his man back as Miller clings on tight. Solecki is unable to mount any offense from above, but Miller appears complacent on his back as he repositions his legs in his guard to open and close it searching for options. Solecki drops down a quartet of punches to the body, and Miller does not want to be flat on his back so he turns to his side. Miller hacks at his man with an elbow, but he is largely nullified by the younger man with top pressure. Miller gets off another elbow and is punched in the face for his effort, as Solecki tries to get off ground-and-pound but is mostly able to strike the side. Dean calls for Solecki to work after several minutes of stalemate, and the round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Solecki

Round 3
The last round opens with a Miller leg kick, and Solecki closes the distance to aim for a takedown and get back to the position where he rode out the previous frame. Miller frantically scrambles, and even rolls when Solecki trips his leg out, but he surrenders his back in the process. Miller somersaults to pursue a leglock, and Solecki easily spins around and winds up on top in a better position than the previous frame. Solecki sits in half guard while Miller is stuck on his side, and he holds his shoulder for a potential arm-triangle choke until bailing on it to posture up. Miller once more finds himself stuck without any ability to get up, and Solecki has firmly embraced the grind as precious seconds tick off the clock. Solecki gets warned for inactivity by Dean, and he lands a few punches to the side while Miller once more twists and turns to try to free himself. Solecki pops him with a few left hands, and he drops down a couple elbows as well to stay busy. The half guard position is a successful one for Solecki, delivering sporadic ground-and-pound and trapping Miller completely. This suffocating style is taking the fight out of the veteran, who looks frustrated as he gets punched in the face every so often. Dean once more calls for Solecki to work, and Solecki tries to mount his foe but cannot get his leg free. The younger fighter keeps working with left hands to the side of Miller’s body and face, and this dreadful fight mercifully comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)

The Official Result
Joe Solecki def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Big Brady is very confident in Solecki, ranking him among his top picks on the card. He highlights Solecki's superior grappling, takedown accuracy (62%), and 100% takedown defense, while Miller has poor takedown defense (46%). Brady expects Solecki to take Miller down and control him on the mat, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Miller's guillotine threat but believes Solecki's black belt will keep him safe. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late submission.

"honestly probably one of my most confident picks on the on the whole card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cody passes on this fight, finding the -230 price too high for Solecki. He thinks the grappling is a wash and Miller has better striking. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.

Over 2.5 rounds -150; fight goes the distance
"it's a dogger pass type of situation i have no interest in selecting minus 230"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Joe Solecki

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing Jim Miller's age and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Solecki has improved his stand-up, as seen in the Austin Hubbard fight, and has a strong jiu-jitsu background. Levi thinks Miller's only path to victory is a first-round knockout, and if Solecki gets past that, he will take over. He also mentions that Solecki trains with John Salter and has a good mindset.

"I'm gonna go with joe solecki just by he's younger i like his mindset too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The host is a big believer in Solecki, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu, improving striking, and cardio. He thinks Solecki has the advantage everywhere, especially with Miller's poor takedown defense and tendency to slow down. He picks Solecki to win by decision or late submission, and notes that -235 is a fair price.

Solecki by decision or submission round 3
"i like slacky here i think he pretty much has him covered everywhere even if select he wants to take him down right off the bat i think he'll be good to go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul also passes, noting Solecki's poor striking and Miller's experience. He thinks the fight will be a grappling match that goes the distance. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.

Over 2.5 rounds +125; fight goes the distance
"i'm thinking over two and a half rounds minus 150 is probably my favorite play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki by third-round rear-naked choke. He considers Solecki an underrated prospect who submitted Austin Hubbard easily. He notes Jim Miller has been out-grappled recently by Vince Pichel and is aging. He thinks Solecki will wear Miller down with body work against the cage and secure a submission in the third round.

third round rear-naked choke submission
"i think a young joe saleki is going to go out there and get the submission win by rear naked choke against jim miller"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:51 · UFC on ESPN: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Aug 22, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Solecki 0 9 of 14 64% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 13 of 20 65% 36 of 43 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Solecki 0 9 of 14 64% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 13 of 20 65% 36 of 43 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Solecki 9 of 14 64% 2 of 5 4 of 5 3 of 4 6 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 13 of 20 65% 8 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 16 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Solecki 9 of 14 64% 2 of 5 4 of 5 3 of 4 6 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 13 of 20 65% 8 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 16 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Big Brady picks Joe Solecki to win by decision. He notes Hubbard has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by everyone in the UFC. Solecki has good wrestling and is slick on the ground with transitions to the back. On the feet, Hubbard has the advantage, but Brady expects Solecki to go for takedowns early and control the fight, provided his cardio holds up. He mentions Hubbard's win over Max Rohskopf is overrated because Rohskopf had only one round of gas.

"i gotta go to lucky here i think he's going to not mess around with the feet i think he's going to go for takedowns right away and as long as this gas tank holds up i think he's going …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2020 (fight day)
Joe Solecki

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki to win, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu and control on the ground. He notes that Solecki's takedowns may not be elite but he can get the fight to the mat, and Hubbard has been outgrappled before. Levi acknowledges Hubbard's improved conditioning and volume striking but believes Solecki will get takedowns early, build a lead, and survive the third round. He mentions Solecki's dominant performance against Matt Wyman as evidence.

"i'm gonna go with select you for the win i think he uh just gets more takedowns and you know probably controls him takes his back for a round and gets off to a big lead and gets the win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 20, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Solecki has great wrestling and jiu-jitsu, but his cardio and ability to finish are questionable. Hubbard has good leg kicks, cardio, and takedown defense, having survived wrestlers like Marco Madsen. Solecki should grind out a decision if he can maintain top control, but Hubbard's gas tank and striking could make it close. I'm pumping the brakes on Solecki until he proves more.

"i am going to pick him to win this fight because i do think he has a ton of potential"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard, citing his counter-grappling skills and takedown defense as seen in the Mark Madsen fight. He believes Hubbard can avoid submissions and reverse positions, eventually breaking Solecki down for a third-round TKO. He also notes Hubbard's reach advantage and that he should be the favorite.

third round tko
"i'm picking austin hubbard to win great counter grappling i think he can avoid the submissions"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Angelo picks Joe Solecki, but with hesitation. He notes that Solecki is a very good grappler with clean boxing, while Jared Gordon is a wrestler who may be intimidated to take the fight to the ground due to Solecki's BJJ. However, Gordon has fought higher competition and has better offensive wrestling. Angelo thinks Solecki's path is via submission, but he wouldn't be shocked if Gordon wins by decision. He likes the less less monkey knife fight pick and may bet on Solecki inside the distance with decision no action.

less less monkey knife fight, considering inside the distance decision no action bet on Solecki
"joe selecci's the pick because i think jared may be intimidated with the takedowns but i would not be shocked if jared's like i don't care comes out there throw some bombs"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon to win by decision, siding with the veteran despite liking Joe Solecki's upside. He notes Gordon has never been outgrappled in the UFC and has good takedown defense and grappling himself (brown belt). Solecki is a BJJ black belt with improving striking, but his wins are over lesser competition (Jim Miller, Austin Hubbard, Matt Wyman). Brady thinks Gordon has the striking advantage and more experience, and that Solecki won't find takedowns as easy as against previous opponents. He calls it a tough fight but takes the dog.

Gordon by decision
"i'm going to side with jared gordon i'm going to take jared gordon to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon as a dog, citing his improved speed and cardio after switching to Sanford MMA. He notes that Gordon has a history of drug abuse but has reinvented himself and looked much better in his last fight. He believes Gordon's pressure, cardio, and grappling will be too much for Solecki, who struggled against Jim Miller's wrestling.

"jared gordon will be under dog number do i only got two dogs at this point regardless jared gordon is dog number two"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Daniel Levi picks Jared Gordon as an underdog, citing Gordon's heavy top pressure (described as 'Khabib-level' by training partners) and better stand-up technique. He is concerned about Solecki's guard-pulling in his last fight, which could be disastrous against Gordon's top game. Levi acknowledges Solecki's improving hands and submission threat but thinks Gordon's experience and pressure will earn him a split decision.

"give me a chair gordon for the upside here i think he's the more experienced guy you're super heavy on top"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

I have huge conviction on Gordon here. Solecki has been fed favorable matchups against wrestlers with poor jiu-jitsu defense, but Gordon is a different beast. Gordon is a better wrestler, has excellent jiu-jitsu defense, and will push a relentless pace. On the feet, Gordon has a clear edge. I bet 4 units on Gordon moneyline and like Gordon by decision at +250.

Gordon by decision +250
"I bet him big i have four units on him on the money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gordon as a dog. He notes that Gordon has a significant size advantage and better cardio. He is concerned about Gordon's chin but believes his pressure and grappling will be key. He plans to bet on Gordon after the show.

"after we get off the show i'm gonna throw some money on jared gordon because sounds like we're on the same page here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, noting that Jared Gordon's size advantage will be negated at lightweight. He also questions Gordon's chin, as he has been KO'd multiple times. Solecki has good grappling, as shown in his win over Jim Miller. He predicts Solecki will win by unanimous decision 29-28.

"i'm going to be going with joe salecki here i think he's a good favorite to take"