UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker Next Fight
Age 28
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Casey O'Neill
7.89 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
5.53 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.4 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Antonina Shevchenko
3.86 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.93 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Casey O'Neill
Moneyline
BetMGM -225
KO/TKO
FanDuel +300
Submission
BetRivers +350
Decision
FanDuel +240
Antonina Shevchenko
Moneyline
Caesars +220
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1000
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
BetMGM +350
Casey O'Neill - Fight History
KO R1 3:11 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 1 25 of 66 37% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gabriella Fernandes 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 1 25 of 66 37% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gabriella Fernandes 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 25 of 66 37% 16 of 54 3 of 6 6 of 6 25 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 8 of 33 24% 3 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 25 of 66 37% 16 of 54 3 of 6 6 of 6 25 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gabriella Fernandes 8 of 33 24% 3 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Gabriella Fernandes, citing her power and physicality, and Casey O'Neill's long layoff which might make her timid. He acknowledges Casey's volume and wrestling but thinks Gabriella's power could be the difference. He says it's not a hill he's willing to die on.

"I'm going to lean Gabriella here because I think the threat of power and Casey's long layoff... might have her a little timid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Big Brady leans toward Gabriella Fernandes to win by decision. He likes Casey O'Neill's volume and submission game but is concerned about her long layoff due to injuries and her durability. He thinks Fernandes is the better striker and more physical, and if O'Neill can't get the fight to the ground, Fernandes will win. He notes Fernandes' poor performance against Stoliarenko but believes she is better than that.

Fernandes by decision
"I'm going to lean Fernandez here. ... I think she wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody believes O'Neill's grappling and volume will overwhelm Fernandes, who has poor takedown defense. He sees O'Neill as the better prospect and expects her to win.

"Casey O'Neill for me. I think she gets the win here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Connor also picks O'Neill, trusting her to play her game. He notes that Fernandes is inconsistent and can be wrapped up by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that O'Neill's striking is crude but her pace is reliable.

"I'll take O'Neal too. At least I do feel I can trust her to play her game."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Daniel leans towards Fernandes due to her improved takedown defense, physicality, and activity, while O'Neill has had multiple layoffs. He sees it as close but favors Fernandes.

"I'm going to lean ever so slightly towards the physicality, the activity and the ever-improving and evolving game of Gabriella Fernandez to be the difference here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The host expects O'Neill to learn from past losses and crash the pocket more effectively, mixing in grappling at opportune moments. He thinks O'Neill's top control will be key, leading to either a submission or a decision win. He notes O'Neill's layoff and training camp changes but believes she can dictate the pace and grind out a win.

decision
"I'm going to go with the latter of the two here as O'Neal wins by judges decision pulling off the upset there."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

Paul picks Fernandes, citing her knockout power and O'Neill's inactivity. He has low conviction but thinks Fernandes can land a big shot.

"I'll pick Gabriela Fernandes, but I have next to no conviction there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Gabriella Fernandes

The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes as a slight underdog, citing her momentum and physicality. He believes Fernandes has more power and damage advantage, while Casey O'Neill lacks power and relies on volume. He notes O'Neill's recent inactivity and cosmetic surgeries as potential distractions. He predicts Fernandes wins by decision.

decision
"I am going to go with Gabriella Fernandez, though."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Zane picks O'Neill because of her high output and ability to swarm, creating ugly clinches and dominant positions. He notes that Fernandes has been beaten by aggressive fighters who wrap her up, and O'Neill fits that mold. He also mentions that O'Neill's striking is ineffective but her pace wins rounds.

"I have to pick O'Neal here. Just to swarm, create ugly clinches and make one of those clinches work."
WIN vs Luana Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 83 of 193 43% 113 of 227 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:21
Luana Santos 0 41 of 97 42% 46 of 102 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 24 of 54 44% 29 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Luana Santos 0 16 of 34 47% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
2 Casey O'Neill 0 25 of 62 40% 28 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Luana Santos 0 12 of 32 37% 13 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:05
3 Casey O'Neill 0 34 of 77 44% 56 of 102 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:11
Luana Santos 0 13 of 31 41% 13 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 83 of 193 43% 60 of 163 12 of 19 11 of 11 69 of 177 5 of 7 9 of 9
Luana Santos 41 of 97 42% 26 of 75 10 of 17 5 of 5 41 of 94 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 24 of 54 44% 15 of 44 3 of 4 6 of 6 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Luana Santos 16 of 34 47% 10 of 25 4 of 7 2 of 2 16 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Casey O'Neill 25 of 62 40% 19 of 51 4 of 9 2 of 2 21 of 56 4 of 6 0 of 0
Luana Santos 12 of 32 37% 7 of 23 4 of 8 1 of 1 12 of 30 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Casey O'Neill 34 of 77 44% 26 of 68 5 of 6 3 of 3 25 of 68 0 of 0 9 of 9
Luana Santos 13 of 31 41% 9 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 2 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-162), O’Neill (+136)

Round 1
Once an uber-hot prospect at the women’s flyweight division, the excitement and momentum have cooled for O'Neill (9-2, 4-2 UFC), who comes into this fight as the crowd favorite despite her birth country being Scotland. While the Xtreme Couture product has lost her last two, Brazil’s Santos (8-1, 3-0 UFC) is flying high, winner of five straight including three in the Octagon. Taking charge of this bout will be referee Rich Mitchell, and he clocks the ladies in as they opt to touch gloves. O'Neill lashes out with an early low kick and punches her way into range, and she slips back to dodge counterpunches. O'Neill kicks the front leg again, only to be met with a left hook. Santos chips back at the front leg twice, with O'Neill trying to line up a right hand back her direction. Santos holds her arm out and swings with the other behind it, and she kicks and gets thrown to the floor. The two scramble right back to their feet, and Santos holds on with a standing guillotine choke to bully O'Neill to the fence. Santos presses hard against the cage wall, slipping around to take the back and attack a single from behind. O'Neill keeps her balance and knees her foe in the torso a few times, only to be lifted up with responsive knees. O'Neill pushes off of Santos’ face to separate, and she walks Santos down and connects with a trio of punches and a chopping calf kick. Santos clips her with a right hand over the top, and she lands flush with a few punches while O'Neill wants to slug it out with her. Santos kicks the body and scurries away to avoid any counters, and O'Neill marches her down and kicks her front leg. O'Neill wings a right hand, but a straight left is more accurate. O'Neill connects with three punches, forcing Santos to bounce off the wall. They both let their hands go, with O'Neill landing first and harder. O'Neill clubs her opponent with overhand rights as Santos tries to kick, and she gets knocked off-balance but throws back hard to make Santos bounce off the cage wall again. They land at the same time, and O'Neill tries to time one such meeting with a knee. Santos misses a jumping switch kick, and she has a spinning back fist blocked. O'Neill walks Santos down and punches her in the face a few more times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill

Round 2
Gloves are briefly touched to begin Round 2, and O'Neill is the aggressor right from the start. She lands a right hand and a body kick, and Santos catches the latter and slings O'Neill to the mat. Santos grabs the glove to get up, and she is warned for the foul. O'Neill manages her way back to her feet, and Santos gloms onto her from behind looking to trip or suffocate her opponent. O'Neill twists and turns, but Santos will not give her an inch of space. O'Neill tries to turn the tables and elevate the Brazilian, and her power move results in Santos stumbling, allowing her to get away. O'Neill returns to her stalking pace, landing a right hand and blocking the responses. O'Neill plants three fists on the chin and a leg kick to follow, keeping Santos guessing by mixing up her offense just enough. Santos kicks her in the ribs and strafes to the side, and O'Neill meets her with an overhand right. Santos goes wide with a hook, allowing O'Neill to retaliate with a trio of speedy blows. O'Neill overswings her way into an accidental takedown setup, and she abandons it to knee Santos in the head repeatedly. Santos shells up and gets caught with punches that wrap around her raised guard before she scoots away. O'Neill times a right hand when Santos kicks her, and Santos is striking back but is beaten to the punch time and time again. Santos jabs and parries, trying for a looping right when O'Neill kicks at her but is out of range. Santos lands two punches, hops back and then puts two more punches on the Brazilian’s chin. A clinch results in O'Neill sneaking in a knee, and Santos breaks off before anything else can catch her. Santos lands once, and O'Neill hits her back three times right before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill

Round 3
Fists are touched, and the fight resumes almost exactly where it ended in the last round. O'Neill clubs Santos with a short combination, and Santos tries and fails to get her back. Santos jabs out and is met with counters, and she leaps forward to get off a right hand. The Brazilian jabs the body, and O'Neill walks her down and busts her in the chops with a series of punches. O'Neill loads up on power punches that knock Santos around, but Santos is tough as can be and wears them well. Santos misses with a right hand, allowing O'Neill to counter her with a power right. O'Neill strings together a few punches and a knee, and Santos is the slower of the two and almost never strikes first. O'Neill jabs high, low and then wings a right hand that gets around the guard. O'Neill allows Santos to come to her so she can meet her with harder blows, with effective right hands that continue to find their home. Punches are traded, and Santos suddenly does not like what is happening and she tries to take the fight down with an ill-advised head lock. O'Neill spins her around and counters a twister setup, resulting in her taking the Brazilian’s back with a quick body triangle set up. Santos hand-fights to prevent any choke from coming anywhere close, but she gets softened up with strikes from both sides. Santos is warned for grabbing inside of the glove, and Mitchell pauses the fight to tell her what is not allowed even though fighters are given instructions before every fight. Santos looks upset that she was called on it, and O'Neill hangs on after the restart to continue working. O'Neill wraps a rear-naked choke grip on the jaw and ends up with a face crank, and she thwacks Santos on the kidney with heel kicks until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 O'Neill (30-27 O'Neill)

The Official Result
Casey O’Neill def. Luana Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Luana Santos

Angelo picks Luana Santos because of her slick grappling and Judo, which he believes will be too much for Casey O'Neill, who was recently submitted quickly by Ariane Lipski. He notes that defending Judo throws is different from defending cage takedowns, and Santos should be able to get the fight to the ground and control it. He has a half-unit bet on Santos at -140, citing the short notice and travel as reasons for the reduced stake.

Half unit at -140
"I have a half a unit on her at minus 14 the only reason it's a half a unit and not a whole unit is ultimately this is short notice she is traveling to the other side of the world."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision. He notes O'Neill has good cardio, high output (almost 9 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and a good ground game. He expects Santos to have success early with takedowns, but as the fight goes on, O'Neill's cardio and volume will take over. He also mentions Santos is taking the fight on short notice and is traveling to Australia, while O'Neill is Australian. He acknowledges O'Neill has looked bad in recent fights but believes this is a step down in competition.

decision
"I'm going to go Casey O'Neil here to win this fight and I'm going to take her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luana Santos

Cody highlights Santos' youth, judo black belt, and recent winning streak, while O'Neill has lost two straight and shown poor striking defense and grappling. He notes Santos can take O'Neill down and control her, and that O'Neill lacks power to earn respect. Cody expects Santos to win the first two rounds and coast.

"I gotta go Lana gotta go Lana Santos here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Luana Santos

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos but is not confident, citing O'Neill's volume and tenacity as concerns. He notes that Santos is young and improving, and that O'Neill may be overcorrected in the market after two losses. Vreeland acknowledges the fight is close and that he has no strong read, but leans toward Santos due to recency bias and physical attributes.

"I am picking Lana here but I mean dude I have no idea what's gonna happen in this fight I don't have a confident pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luana Santos

The host leans to Santos, citing her technical advantages and submission threat. He notes O'Neill's wrestling could be a factor, but expects Santos to control positions and potentially submit her. He mentions Santos' submission prop at +600 as a possible nibble, but is cautious due to Santos taking the fight on short notice and traveling.

Santos by submission (+600)
"I still believe she can come out on top and more than likely by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luana Santos

Paul agrees, noting that O'Neill's hype train has derailed after losses to tougher competition. He points out that Santos has legitimate potential, as shown by her takedown of Stephanie Edgar and destruction of Agapova. Paul believes Santos can do whatever she wants in the fight and that O'Neill's volume lacks power.

"Santos is the uh is the sharp side"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Luana Santos. He initially jokes about picking Santos but settles on O'Neill. He acknowledges O'Neill's losses to Ariane Lipski and Jennifer Maia but notes she has more experience and has been training since those losses. He criticizes Santos' wins over Mariya Agapova (calling her a heroin addict) and Juliana Miller (calling her a can). He is surprised O'Neill is an underdog and takes that value. He predicts a unanimous decision win for O'Neill.

Unanimous decision, surprised she's an underdog
"I'm actually going with Casey O'Neal what are the odds for that fight... Casey O'Neal is an underdog I'm taking that"
LOSS vs Ariane da Silva
Submission (armbar) R2 1:18 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 74 41% 32 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 64 of 127 50% 86 of 152 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 28 of 68 41% 29 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Casey O'Neill 0 39 of 93 41% 44 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
2 Ariane da Silva 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Casey O'Neill 0 25 of 34 73% 42 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 31 of 74 41% 17 of 57 3 of 3 11 of 14 29 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 64 of 127 50% 45 of 106 16 of 18 3 of 3 37 of 95 9 of 11 18 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 28 of 68 41% 15 of 52 3 of 3 10 of 13 26 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 39 of 93 41% 21 of 73 15 of 17 3 of 3 29 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1
2 Ariane da Silva 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 25 of 34 73% 24 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.

"I'm going to lean ariani here... Ariana lipsky is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.

"give me Casey O'Neal to finish this fight by second round at TKO in this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.

"I'm gonna to enact the CF doop model here again Cody Arion lipsky is the pick for me"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.

"I like Lipski in this spot... I'm picking Ariane Lipski outright."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.

Lipski by decision
"I'm officially on the lipsky train and I feel like again somebody is still as raw as untested is you know I don't want to say that fully you know O'Neal she's faced some decent names but she's still yet …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.

Casey O'Neill by decision
"I'm gonna go end up going with O'Neal by decision yeah just don't feel super confident about it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.

"I'm GNA go with Casey O'Neal over ariani lipin... Casey O'Neal puts a way higher volume out there and in women's MMA if it's close they might just just look at the person that's throwing more punches"
LOSS vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 145 of 349 41% 151 of 355 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Casey O'Neill 0 137 of 264 51% 137 of 264 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 47 of 113 41% 48 of 114 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Casey O'Neill 0 43 of 96 44% 43 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jennifer Maia 0 51 of 119 42% 55 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Casey O'Neill 0 47 of 84 55% 47 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jennifer Maia 0 47 of 117 40% 48 of 118 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:56
Casey O'Neill 0 47 of 84 55% 47 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 145 of 349 41% 123 of 321 11 of 16 11 of 12 124 of 321 21 of 28 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 137 of 264 51% 108 of 226 24 of 32 5 of 6 129 of 254 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 47 of 113 41% 37 of 101 4 of 6 6 of 6 43 of 108 4 of 5 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 43 of 96 44% 35 of 85 7 of 9 1 of 2 41 of 93 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jennifer Maia 51 of 119 42% 44 of 109 3 of 5 4 of 5 46 of 112 5 of 7 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 47 of 84 55% 36 of 70 8 of 11 3 of 3 45 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jennifer Maia 47 of 117 40% 42 of 111 4 of 5 1 of 1 35 of 101 12 of 16 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 47 of 84 55% 37 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 43 of 79 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill but is not betting. He thinks O'Neill will come forward with volume and wrestling, but her takedown defense was exposed against Roxanne. He notes Jennifer Maia is well-rounded and tough, and could cause problems if she gets takedowns. He expects a close fight.

"I do think Casey O'Neal wins this could be a Casey O'Neill special where she'll come forward tons of volume and then wrestle."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks O'Neill, noting Maia refuses to wrestle despite being a black belt. He believes if Maia went for takedowns she would win, but she won't. On the feet, O'Neill has higher output and will win a decision. He is not a big fan of O'Neill but likes her stylistically here.

"I'm gonna take uh Casey O'Neill here to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Cody picks Maia as an underdog, citing the 'dog or pass' strategy in women's MMA. He notes O'Neill is young, green, and pushed too fast, while Maia is a veteran who fought for a title. He thinks Maia's experience and clinch strength could be factors, but acknowledges O'Neill's wrestling and top control are threats. He expects to lose but trusts the long-term underdog strategy.

"I think I'm gonna take Jennifer Maya will I lose this one because I'm taking the underdog now yeah probably but long term Pac-Man strategy has been the most effective strategy I've ever seen"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Jennifer Maia

Connor picks Maia because she is a tough, durable fighter who is difficult to take down off the cage. He notes that Maia has improved her boxing and aggression, landing left hooks and combinations. O'Neill relies on size and aggression but has poor defense and footwork. Connor thinks Maia's defensive wrestling and low center of gravity will neutralize O'Neill's takedowns. He also mentions that O'Neill's wild style leaves openings that Maia can exploit with straight punches.

Maia opened +135, currently +147; O'Neill opened -155, currently -178
"I just don't think Maya leaves enough open."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Jacob is a big fan of Casey O'Neill and picks her to win a close decision. He thinks her experience against Roxanne prepared her for a similar pressure fighter in Maia. He notes O'Neill has a bad [__] in the octagon and will find a way to win in a close fight. He expects a 29-28 decision.

"I like uh King Casey all day every day in a close fight she's a bad [__] man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

O'Neill is coming back from a devastating knee injury but is young and trains at a high level. Maia is a BJJ black belt who prefers striking, and her experience could be a factor. O'Neill's strength and aggression should allow her to grind out a decision, but there are many question marks. No betting interest at the current line.

"I have no interest in putting money on Casey O'Neal as a you know a moderate favorite in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul picks O'Neill but is hesitant. He notes O'Neill's grappling advantage and thinks she can win on volume and takedowns. However, he points out O'Neill didn't look great against Roxanne Modafferi and struggled early against Antonina Shevchenko. He thinks minus 180 is too high and prefers O'Neill over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He says it will be dicey and your butt will be puckered until the final bell.

Casey O'Neill over 2.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)
"I'm gonna take Casey O'Neill but like I minus 180 I don't want to get involved because I think there will be some really really greasy spots"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Casey O'Neill, going against the majority. He notes O'Neill looked suspect against Roxanne Modafferi and gets caught on the feet, while Maia has crisp boxing and a good submission game. Maia has gone the distance with Valentina Shevchenko and given problems to top fighters. He believes Maia is underrated and O'Neill is overhyped as a prospect.

Maia is a big underdog (juicy underdog)
"I'm gonna go with Jennifer Meyer here I think this is pretty 50 50 but I'm leaning in the direction of Jennifer Meyer"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Jennifer Maia

Zane also picks Maia, noting that O'Neill is a prospect who has beaten lower-level competition. Maia is a gatekeeper who has only lost to title challengers. Zane highlights Maia's improved boxing and her ability to stuff takedowns, especially off the cage. He thinks O'Neill's takedowns are low-drive and will be neutralized. Zane also points out that O'Neill's defensive flaws will be exposed by Maia's steady output. He believes the odds should be reversed and that Maia is the better fighter.

Maia opened +135, currently +147; O'Neill opened -155, currently -178
"Maya is a... she's clearly the gatekeeper in this matchup and a more proven fighter than O'Neill."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 120 of 358 33% 148 of 390 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:06
Roxanne Modafferi 0 229 of 393 58% 230 of 395 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 44 of 135 32% 44 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 130 55% 72 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Casey O'Neill 0 35 of 118 29% 40 of 123 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Roxanne Modafferi 0 86 of 142 60% 86 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Casey O'Neill 0 41 of 105 39% 64 of 132 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:01
Roxanne Modafferi 0 71 of 121 58% 72 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 120 of 358 33% 98 of 330 20 of 25 2 of 3 112 of 347 8 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 229 of 393 58% 187 of 348 22 of 25 20 of 20 225 of 387 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 44 of 135 32% 40 of 129 3 of 4 1 of 2 44 of 135 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 130 55% 55 of 111 7 of 9 10 of 10 72 of 130 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Casey O'Neill 35 of 118 29% 28 of 109 6 of 8 1 of 1 34 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 86 of 142 60% 73 of 129 7 of 7 6 of 6 84 of 140 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Casey O'Neill 41 of 105 39% 30 of 92 11 of 13 0 of 0 34 of 95 7 of 10 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 71 of 121 58% 59 of 108 8 of 9 4 of 4 69 of 117 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo is very confident in O'Neill, calling her too good everywhere. He expects a dominant one-sided decision win, noting Modafferi's toughness but lack of athleticism. He mentions a parlay with Ronnie Lawrence and a potential prop bet on O'Neill by decision.

parlay with Ronnie Lawrence at -110, 2 units; Casey O'Neill by decision prop
"i see a dominant one-sided decision win for casey o'neill and my favorite parlay on this card is a casey o'neill and ronnie lawrence parley i already threw two units on that and i got it at -110"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady acknowledges O'Neill's poor striking defense but believes she can take down Modafferi at will due to Modafferi's 25% takedown defense. He thinks O'Neill will control the fight on the ground and win a decision. He notes Modafferi is retiring and 39 years old, and while she is tough and has good BJJ defense, he doesn't see her winning. Brady picks O'Neill by decision.

O'Neill by decision
"i think o'neil can take down roxy whenever she wants... write out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody agrees, highlighting O'Neill's youth, improving skills, and physical strength. He notes Modafferi's takedown defense is poor and that O'Neill can dictate where the fight goes. He sees this as a passing of the torch.

"this is a passing of the torch so to speak"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill by decision. He acknowledges Modafferi's toughness and black belt in jiu-jitsu, but notes that O'Neill's pace and grappling pressure will be too much. Levi does not expect a finish because Modafferi has not been finished since 2013. He also mentions that Modafferi's retirement mindset may affect her performance.

"just give me casey o'neill will be a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

O'Neill is the younger, more explosive fighter, but Modafferi is durable and has good grappling. O'Neill has shown vulnerabilities in being taken down and controlled, which is Modafferi's strength. Modafferi hasn't been finished in over a decade. O'Neill should eventually get the TKO in the later rounds, but the odds are too wide. This is a no-play for betting.

O'Neill by TKO in round 2 or 3; no bet advised
"i'm still picking quest here i'm she's going to be my prediction but i would not advise getting trigger happy on parlaying her in every single spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul thinks O'Neill's pressure and grappling will be too much for Modafferi. He notes Modafferi has been taken down frequently in recent fights and that O'Neill is strong and relentless. He expects a decision win for O'Neill, possibly a finish.

Casey O'Neill by decision
"i think she's a rifle favorite here with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He criticizes Modafferi's striking and chin, and believes O'Neill's hunger and grappling will overwhelm the retiring veteran.

second round ground and pound tko
"i'm going to be going with casey o'neil here"
TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 40 of 63 63% 58 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
Antonina Shevchenko 0 52 of 110 47% 128 of 209 3 of 8 37% 0 0 5:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 29 of 41 70% 38 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Antonina Shevchenko 0 9 of 33 27% 26 of 52 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:19
2 Casey O'Neill 0 11 of 22 50% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Antonina Shevchenko 0 43 of 77 55% 102 of 157 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 40 of 63 63% 32 of 55 8 of 8 0 of 0 24 of 45 8 of 8 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 52 of 110 47% 46 of 101 4 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 55 2 of 3 37 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 29 of 41 70% 23 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 9 of 33 27% 5 of 27 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 4
2 Casey O'Neill 11 of 22 50% 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Antonina Shevchenko 43 of 77 55% 41 of 74 1 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 28 0 of 1 35 of 48
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.

considering moneyline bet at -210
"i think she's almost a guaranteed win here so i may do a money line bet on her at minus 210"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.

O'Neill by decision
"i'll go with casey o'neil here to win i'll go for her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.

Inside the distance at +140
"casey o'neill is the pick clearly um i think her game her game plan her style is just the kryptonite to everything that shivchenko really wants to do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.

"i'm not lying when i say i'm going to be nervous for the entire duration this fight stays standing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.

Shevchenko by KO +800
"I bet chef check on the money line i also bet her caleb ko on plus 800"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.

Inside the distance at +140
"i think shivchenko rolls here um it may take a couple rounds but i think she probably gets her out of there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.

O'Neill by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 2 or 3
"i'm going casey o'neil here i think i'm going to go with casey o'neill by re-naked choke in the second round"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:54 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 71 of 129 55% 176 of 246 1 of 2 50% 2 0 5:42
Lara Procópio 0 41 of 65 63% 76 of 103 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 26 of 67 38% 34 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:36
Lara Procópio 0 32 of 50 64% 63 of 82 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:50
2 Casey O'Neill 0 38 of 50 76% 68 of 84 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:33
Lara Procópio 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
3 Casey O'Neill 0 7 of 12 58% 74 of 85 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:33
Lara Procópio 0 4 of 5 80% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 71 of 129 55% 41 of 97 23 of 25 7 of 7 43 of 94 9 of 12 19 of 23
Lara Procópio 41 of 65 63% 17 of 40 15 of 16 9 of 9 26 of 49 14 of 15 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 26 of 67 38% 12 of 52 11 of 12 3 of 3 20 of 58 5 of 7 1 of 2
Lara Procópio 32 of 50 64% 13 of 30 12 of 13 7 of 7 20 of 37 12 of 13 0 of 0
2 Casey O'Neill 38 of 50 76% 25 of 36 10 of 11 3 of 3 18 of 27 3 of 4 17 of 19
Lara Procópio 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Casey O'Neill 7 of 12 58% 4 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2
Lara Procópio 4 of 5 80% 2 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lara Procópio

Angelo picks Lara Procópio, emphasizing her technical jiu-jitsu and high fight IQ. He compares Casey O'Neill to Paige VanZant, athletic but not technical. He believes Procópio can submit O'Neill or control her on the ground. He has Procópio in his DraftKings lineup and placed a bet on her to win by stoppage with decision no action.

Procópio wins by stoppage, decision equals no action (bet online)
"my pick here is laura procopio if you couldn't tell from that breakdown."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Lara Procópio

Big Brady favors Procópio due to her well-rounded skills, better striking volume, superior cardio, and ground game. He notes O'Neill's striking defense is poor and her win over Shannon Dobson is overrated because Dobson had zero takedown defense. He expects Procópio to mix takedowns and win a decision.

win by decision
"I'm going to go with laura procopio to win this fight I'm going to take her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lara Procópio

Cody picks Procópio, citing her striking volume, grappling, and durability. He notes O'Neill's limited striking and reliance on takedowns, which Procópio can defend. Cody believes Procópio's well-rounded game will be too much for the undefeated but inexperienced O'Neill.

"i got laura procopio everything should suggest lord procopio"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Lara Procópio

Daniel Levi picks Lara Procópio, expecting her to dominate the majority of the fight. He notes that she is a Nova União black belt with good performances against Carol Rosa and Molly McCann. However, he warns that she must be careful of O'Neill's submission attempts, as Molly McCann had a deep armbar on her. He predicts a decision win for Procópio.

"my pick is laura procopio to get it done most likely be a decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Jacob picks Casey O'Neill, citing her pressure and toughness. He worries about O'Neill's grappling defense if she ends up on her back, but thinks she can win a decision. He does not have her in his lineup and would not bet on the fight. He sees it as a wrestling match that could go either way.

"i have casey to win this fight oof i don't have her in my lineup and i don't love it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The host leans with Casey O'Neill as a slight underdog, citing her aggression, strength, and improving skills at Extreme Couture. He believes O'Neill's forward pressure and top control will be key, as Procópio may struggle to get takedowns. He notes O'Neill's ground-and-pound and active top game, while Procópio is a black belt but less threatening off her back. He predicts a decision win but with low conviction, acknowledging respected analysts are on Procópio.

O'Neill by decision at +295 mentioned as a line he likes
"if you're giving me minus 150 and plus 130 i lean with the dog ever so slightly here with casey o'neill"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lara Procópio

Paul picks Procópio, noting her solid grappling and game plan against Molly McCann. He is concerned about O'Neill's grappling but believes Procópio's experience and skills will prevail.

"i'm picking procopio but wanted to hear what you had to say before i do anything with that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He expects Lara Procópio to have success on the feet in the first round, but O'Neill's grappling and size advantage will take over in the later rounds. He notes O'Neill's youth (23) and undefeated record (6-0) as factors. He predicts a takedown at the end of round one, then O'Neill dominating on top in rounds two and three, possibly close to a 10-8 in the third.

"i'm gonna go with casey o'neill getting this one done... 29-28 casey o'neill unanimous decision"
WIN vs Shana Dobson
TKO (punches) R2 3:41 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 16 of 28 57% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Shana Dobson 0 49 of 68 72% 132 of 183 4 of 6 66% 1 0 7:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 14 of 26 53% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Shana Dobson 0 32 of 38 84% 57 of 67 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:53
2 Casey O'Neill 0 2 of 2 100% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shana Dobson 0 17 of 30 56% 75 of 116 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 16 of 28 57% 9 of 21 5 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 4
Shana Dobson 49 of 68 72% 44 of 62 3 of 4 2 of 2 17 of 24 1 of 1 31 of 43
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 14 of 26 53% 9 of 21 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 18 3 of 4 2 of 4
Shana Dobson 32 of 38 84% 28 of 33 2 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 21 1 of 1 15 of 16
2 Casey O'Neill 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shana Dobson 17 of 30 56% 16 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 27
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Shana Dobson

Daniel Levi is skeptical of Casey O'Neill's competition level, calling her opponents 'soccer moms' and noting she was knocked out twice in amateur fights. He believes Shana Dobson, despite her poor record, has faced much better competition and has more experience. Levi thinks Dobson's confidence from her last win could carry her, and he sees O'Neill as overhyped. He picks Dobson for the upset, but admits it wouldn't surprise him if O'Neill wins.

"i'm actually going to pick shayna dobson in this one i feel like this is a little bit too good to be true"
Antonina Shevchenko - Fight History
WIN vs Cortney Casey
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 55 of 117 47% 81 of 158 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:50
Cortney Casey 0 33 of 86 38% 80 of 146 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 35 45% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 20 60% 35 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 15 of 25 60% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 29 41% 36 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 55 of 117 47% 26 of 73 15 of 26 14 of 18 54 of 115 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 33 of 86 38% 17 of 52 2 of 7 14 of 27 28 of 78 3 of 4 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 35 45% 6 of 21 5 of 8 5 of 6 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 20 60% 3 of 5 0 of 1 9 of 14 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 24 of 57 42% 9 of 34 6 of 11 9 of 12 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 9 of 37 24% 5 of 23 0 of 3 4 of 11 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 15 of 25 60% 11 of 18 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 29 41% 9 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.

Considering a plus 3.5 round bet on Cortney Casey (buying points).
"I need to go with the better striker and that is going to be antonina... I might do a plus three and a half on courtney."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.

"if i had to make a pick it's going to be antonina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

Mentions Shevchenko by decision as a prop.
"i think you're going to want to improve that price tag by taking the shepchenko by decision that makes sense"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.

2 units on fight goes to decision at -180. Parlay includes over 2.5 rounds.
"two units on the fight goes to decision for servchenko and Casey that's at minus 180. again a little bit chalky there again but I do think that this is one of those spots where they're just gonna outpoint one …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.

"yeah i gotta go with that as well again women's mma so you don't want to be paying anything north of you know minus 200 but minus 165 not a terrible price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

underdog; decision win
"I've got to side with Courtney Casey as an underdog."
LOSS vs Casey O'Neill
TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 40 of 63 63% 58 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
Antonina Shevchenko 0 52 of 110 47% 128 of 209 3 of 8 37% 0 0 5:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 29 of 41 70% 38 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Antonina Shevchenko 0 9 of 33 27% 26 of 52 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:19
2 Casey O'Neill 0 11 of 22 50% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Antonina Shevchenko 0 43 of 77 55% 102 of 157 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 40 of 63 63% 32 of 55 8 of 8 0 of 0 24 of 45 8 of 8 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 52 of 110 47% 46 of 101 4 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 55 2 of 3 37 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 29 of 41 70% 23 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 9 of 33 27% 5 of 27 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 4
2 Casey O'Neill 11 of 22 50% 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Antonina Shevchenko 43 of 77 55% 41 of 74 1 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 28 0 of 1 35 of 48
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.

considering moneyline bet at -210
"i think she's almost a guaranteed win here so i may do a money line bet on her at minus 210"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.

O'Neill by decision
"i'll go with casey o'neil here to win i'll go for her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.

Inside the distance at +140
"casey o'neill is the pick clearly um i think her game her game plan her style is just the kryptonite to everything that shivchenko really wants to do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.

"i'm not lying when i say i'm going to be nervous for the entire duration this fight stays standing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.

Shevchenko by KO +800
"I bet chef check on the money line i also bet her caleb ko on plus 800"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.

Inside the distance at +140
"i think shivchenko rolls here um it may take a couple rounds but i think she probably gets her out of there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.

O'Neill by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 2 or 3
"i'm going casey o'neil here i think i'm going to go with casey o'neill by re-naked choke in the second round"
LOSS vs Andrea Lee
Submission (triangle armbar) R2 4:52 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 45 of 62 72% 88 of 108 3 of 3 100% 3 0 2:11
Antonina Shevchenko 0 23 of 41 56% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 28 of 44 63% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Antonina Shevchenko 0 22 of 39 56% 34 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 17 of 18 94% 45 of 47 2 of 2 100% 3 0 0:40
Antonina Shevchenko 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 45 of 62 72% 32 of 43 11 of 15 2 of 4 19 of 35 6 of 6 20 of 21
Antonina Shevchenko 23 of 41 56% 13 of 30 8 of 9 2 of 2 15 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 28 of 44 63% 15 of 25 11 of 15 2 of 4 18 of 34 6 of 6 4 of 4
Antonina Shevchenko 22 of 39 56% 13 of 29 8 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 30 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 17 of 18 94% 17 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 17
Antonina Shevchenko 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.

"I'm gonna side with andrea lee here to get it done as a dog but i really don't think she's going to be a dog for soon here but i'll take andrew lee by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (59.5 for Lee, 35.5 for Shevchenko).
"i would agree with your assessment pretty much on all points and go with andrea lee here andrew lee by decision more specifically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.

"i'm going with antonina via 30-27"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.

Shevchenko by decision
"i will go with chevchenko to win this fight by decision but by no means am i like lock the knight confident on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.

"i'll pick andrea lee i don't feel great about it though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.

"i'm going with antonina chefchenko"
TKO (punches) R2 4:33 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 39 of 57 68% 94 of 128 1 of 3 33% 0 0 7:39
Ariane da Silva 0 15 of 26 57% 25 of 36 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 10 of 12 83% 37 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:48
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 14 71% 20 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 29 of 45 64% 57 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:51
Ariane da Silva 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 39 of 57 68% 32 of 50 4 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 12 5 of 6 26 of 39
Ariane da Silva 15 of 26 57% 7 of 15 5 of 6 3 of 5 13 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 10 of 12 83% 4 of 6 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 6 5 of 6 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 14 71% 4 of 7 4 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 29 of 45 64% 28 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 39
Ariane da Silva 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady leans Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He thinks Shevchenko has a big advantage on the feet, but is concerned about her takedown defense after being dominated by Chookagian. He notes Lipski could win with a wrestling-heavy game plan, but Shevchenko is the pick if it stays standing.

would not bet this fight
"i'm going to take chefchenko i think it could play out close as a lot of women's fights do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Daniel picks Lipski as an underdog, citing Antonina's poor takedown defense and one-dimensional striking. He believes Lipski has paid her dues and can exploit Antonina's ground game. He notes Lipski's recent submission win shows improvement and that the fight should be a pick'em.

"i am actually gonna pick uh my girl queen of violent slipski to come in here and get this upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He believes she is cleaner on the feet and has a size advantage, and that Lipski will be outgunned on the feet and unable to have success on the ground. He notes the line is fair but not compelling to bet.

"I do like Chef Cho again I think she's cleaner on the feet uh she might have the Jiu-Jitsu Advantage as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Shevchenko's losses are to better competition (Chookagian, Modafferi) and that Lipski doesn't shoot enough takedowns to pose a threat. He expects Shevchenko to outland Lipski on the feet and win every round.

"i'm definitely going to be going with antonina chefchenko to get the job done over ariana lipsky by unanimous decision"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 73 of 108 67% 200 of 240 3 of 3 100% 4 0 10:36
Antonina Shevchenko 0 25 of 64 39% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 24 83% 70 of 77 1 of 1 100% 4 0 4:27
Antonina Shevchenko 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 21 85% 83 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:53
Antonina Shevchenko 0 5 of 6 83% 14 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 63 55% 47 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 54 31% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 73 of 108 67% 55 of 81 12 of 18 6 of 9 22 of 49 4 of 4 47 of 55
Antonina Shevchenko 25 of 64 39% 14 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 24 83% 17 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 21 85% 16 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 19
Antonina Shevchenko 5 of 6 83% 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 63 55% 22 of 43 9 of 14 4 of 6 20 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 54 31% 11 of 46 3 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Not touching from a betting perspective
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko I think she's a better striker I think she's going to land the harder shots as well the more convincing shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

"i'm gonna agree with you that's gonna be a split decision but i'm gonna edge antonina on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Cerminara by decision
"Caitlin shook a key in here she's longer she's rain jeah I think she's gonna get a job done against Antonina Shevchenko"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:20 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 23 69% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:54
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 16 37% 12 of 24 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 21 76% 34 of 39 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:37
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 18 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:40
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 0 of 2 0% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Lucie Pudilová 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 23 69% 3 of 6 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 3 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 8 5 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 21 76% 3 of 4 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 1
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 33 of 79 41% 105 of 162 5 of 6 83% 0 2 9:00
Antonina Shevchenko 0 64 of 116 55% 87 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 40 27% 30 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:59
Antonina Shevchenko 0 26 of 46 56% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 14 of 21 66% 44 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:46
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 8 of 18 44% 31 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 2 3:15
Antonina Shevchenko 0 21 of 36 58% 39 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 33 of 79 41% 29 of 73 3 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 60 3 of 4 12 of 15
Antonina Shevchenko 64 of 116 55% 50 of 101 12 of 13 2 of 2 49 of 98 10 of 11 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 40 27% 8 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 1
Antonina Shevchenko 26 of 46 56% 23 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 2 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 14 of 21 66% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 34 50% 15 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5
3 Roxanne Modafferi 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Antonina Shevchenko 21 of 36 58% 12 of 26 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2
WIN vs Ji Yeon Kim
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Nov 30, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 33 of 128 25% 85 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ji Yeon Kim 0 66 of 134 49% 87 of 167 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 9 of 50 18% 16 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Ji Yeon Kim 0 15 of 35 42% 19 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:12
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 12 of 46 26% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Ji Yeon Kim 0 24 of 53 45% 29 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 12 of 32 37% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ji Yeon Kim 0 27 of 46 58% 39 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 33 of 128 25% 18 of 113 5 of 5 10 of 10 26 of 116 7 of 12 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 66 of 134 49% 41 of 101 18 of 26 7 of 7 46 of 106 14 of 19 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 9 of 50 18% 3 of 44 2 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 15 of 35 42% 10 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1 13 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 12 of 46 26% 8 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 24 of 53 45% 16 of 41 6 of 10 2 of 2 19 of 45 5 of 8 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 12 of 32 37% 7 of 27 1 of 1 4 of 4 10 of 25 2 of 7 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 27 of 46 58% 15 of 30 8 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 28 7 of 9 6 of 9
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.

considering moneyline bet at -210
"i think she's almost a guaranteed win here so i may do a money line bet on her at minus 210"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.

O'Neill by decision
"i'll go with casey o'neil here to win i'll go for her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.

Inside the distance at +140
"casey o'neill is the pick clearly um i think her game her game plan her style is just the kryptonite to everything that shivchenko really wants to do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.

"i'm not lying when i say i'm going to be nervous for the entire duration this fight stays standing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.

Shevchenko by KO +800
"I bet chef check on the money line i also bet her caleb ko on plus 800"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.

Inside the distance at +140
"i think shivchenko rolls here um it may take a couple rounds but i think she probably gets her out of there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.

O'Neill by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 2 or 3
"i'm going casey o'neil here i think i'm going to go with casey o'neill by re-naked choke in the second round"