UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 35
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 42
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mateusz Gamrot
3.29 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.96 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
5.15 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Scott Holtzman
4.32 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.66 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.88 TD Avg
56.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Mateusz Gamrot
Moneyline
FanDuel -245
KO/TKO
BetWay +400
Submission
BetWay +650
Decision
BetWay +105
Scott Holtzman
Moneyline
FanDuel +200
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
BetWay +300
Mateusz Gamrot - Fight History
SCHED vs Quillan Salkilld
Submission R2 4:19 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 34 52% 38 of 56 4 of 6 66% 1 0 6:50
Esteban Ribovics 0 4 of 21 19% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 21 66% 24 of 33 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 1 of 12 8% 3 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 13 30% 14 of 23 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 3 of 9 33% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 34 52% 15 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 14 of 16
Esteban Ribovics 4 of 21 19% 2 of 15 0 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 21 66% 11 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 11
Esteban Ribovics 1 of 12 8% 0 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 13 30% 4 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
Esteban Ribovics 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.

plus 3.5 prop bet
"I'm going to go with the dog here. Estevan's going to be the pick. If you're afraid of the plus 145 money line, wait a few days and do the plus three and a half prop bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.

split decision
"I'm going to say it's going to go to Ribovics. I think this has split decision written all over it... give me the dog here and Esteban Ribovics to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm gonna take the guy that's getting the damage and you got yourself an Argentinian immigrant living in Florida... slight better damage from Rivix leads to a slight decision victory for Riavix."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.

"I'm with you, especially because Ribovics is a cardio machine. He fought my guy Kamuela Kirk, and he just would not stop coming."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.

"I think that Estabbon Rivix has leveled up and I think he's going to come out here and he's going to put the damage on Mat Gamro."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.

Likes Ribovics +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision but over odds are too steep.
"This is a really difficult fight from a betting point of view because there's no way that you would want to be betting Ribovic against a strong MMA grappler like Gamrot..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.

"I'm going to pick another underdog here, boys. I mean, this is Dog City."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.

Gamrot wins by decision
"I'm still going to go Gamerot. I'll lean on his grappling. I'll lean on his experience and I think that's going to be enough for him to go out there, grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.

"I'm still going to go game, but not very confidently. I think just takedowns control over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.

"I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics here over Mateusz Gamrot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
Submission R2 2:48 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Oliveira 0 11 of 33 33% 18 of 40 1 of 1 100% 1 1 3:35
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Oliveira 0 3 of 8 37% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:47
Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
2 Charles Oliveira 0 8 of 25 32% 9 of 26 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Oliveira 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 3 of 6 4 of 6 10 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 42 42% 16 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Oliveira 3 of 8 37% 0 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Oliveira 8 of 25 32% 4 of 17 2 of 5 2 of 3 7 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 35 40% 13 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot, believing his wrestling and experience at American Top Team will prevent him from getting submitted. He expects Gamrot to win by takedowns and control, similar to Arman Tsarukyan's win over Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's only hope is a knockout on the feet or a submission, but thinks Gamrot is too well-trained. He bet on Gamrot at -120 odds.

bet on Gamrot at -120
"I think Mateusz Gamrot is just too experienced, too well-trained, too ingrained in American Top Team to get caught in a submission on the ground. I do not see that happening."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Big Brady picks Charles Oliveira to finish Mateusz Gamrot by third-round knockout, becoming the first to finish Gamrot. He notes both fighters have durability concerns: Gamrot gets hurt in every fight but never finished, while Oliveira is coming off a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria and may be returning too soon. However, Brady thinks Oliveira is pissed off and will pressure hard, land big shots, and eventually drop Gamrot. He believes Gamrot's takedowns won't lead to control, as Oliveira can get back up, and on the feet Oliveira has the death touch. He also notes Gamrot took the fight on short notice and is fighting in Brazil.

knockout
"I'm going to say Olivera finds a finish. I'm going to say he's the first person to finish Matteas. I think it's going to be a war... third round knockout for Charles Ola."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody picks Charles Oliveira but is scared due to concerns about Oliveira being a part-time fighter and possibly past his peak. He notes Gamrot's wrestling could be a threat but trusts Oliveira's jiu-jitsu and home crowd advantage. He suggests live betting Oliveira if he loses early rounds.

inside the distance (+160)
"Charles is my pick, but I'm a little scared because I don't know if he's like fully all the way in still at this point."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

James picks Oliveira despite acknowledging Gamrot's wrestling advantage and Oliveira's recent KO loss. He believes Oliveira's superior jiu-jitsu and striking will be key, especially his guillotine and front headlock series to defend takedowns. However, he notes volatility due to short notice and Oliveira's age, and does not plan to bet on this fight.

"I'm going to end up picking Charles Olivea in this fight, boys. I just feel like he's got, you know, way more danger on the feet. way more danger on the ground and more damage upside, more big moment upside."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Lucrative James leans Charles Oliveira, citing his superior striking and submission danger. He believes Gamrot must rely on takedowns, but Oliveira's scrambling and jiu-jitsu are elite. He notes Oliveira's ability to get up from takedowns and his power. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's prime and intangibles, making it a close fight. He picks Oliveira but is not confident.

"I lean Charles Olivea in this fight. And the reason I say I think is because it is a close fight, you know, and I'm not confident either way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Manpreet picks Gamrot by decision, citing Gamrot's high-level grappling and ability to nullify Oliveira's submission threats. He notes Oliveira's tendency to be too comfortable off his back, which could be exploited by Gamrot's wrestling and scrambles. However, he acknowledges the short notice for Gamrot and calls the fight a toss-up, with low confidence. He mentions that Oliveira's striking advantage and BJJ threat could cause Gamrot problems, but believes Gamrot's grappling defense will keep him safe.

Gamrot by decision
"I'm going to go Gamrot here. I'm going to go Gamrot by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul picks Charles Oliveira, citing his excellent striking and grappling, and noting that Gamrot has been knocked down multiple times in the UFC. He believes Oliveira's dual threat of knockout and submission will be too much, especially in a five-round fight where Gamrot's cardio may fade. Paul is confident but acknowledges the risk of Oliveira's age and recent knockout loss.

inside the distance (+160)
"I got Charles Oliveira and if you want to get spicy with it, I think he finishes him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Mateusz Gamrot, citing Oliveira's submission skills and Gamrot's tendency to get hurt and shoot for takedowns, leaving his neck exposed. He notes Gamrot has been rocked in many fights and Oliveira will capitalize with a guillotine. He predicts a submission win in round 1 or 2.

submission in round 1 or 2, guillotine
"I'm going to take Charles Olivea by guillotine submission."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 65 of 110 59% 142 of 224 6 of 11 54% 0 0 8:45
Ľudovít Klein 0 24 of 74 32% 85 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 19 52% 27 of 43 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:06
Ľudovít Klein 0 2 of 14 14% 6 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 17 of 26 65% 46 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Ľudovít Klein 0 2 of 11 18% 48 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 38 of 65 58% 69 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:34
Ľudovít Klein 0 20 of 49 40% 31 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 65 of 110 59% 53 of 98 7 of 7 5 of 5 38 of 73 3 of 4 24 of 33
Ľudovít Klein 24 of 74 32% 10 of 49 13 of 23 1 of 2 23 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 19 52% 3 of 12 4 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 13 2 of 2 4 of 4
Ľudovít Klein 2 of 14 14% 2 of 11 0 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 17 of 26 65% 15 of 24 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 1 13 of 18
Ľudovít Klein 2 of 11 18% 1 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mateusz Gamrot 38 of 65 58% 35 of 62 2 of 2 1 of 1 30 of 53 1 of 1 7 of 11
Ľudovít Klein 20 of 49 40% 7 of 31 12 of 17 1 of 1 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gamrot (-166), Klein (+140)

Round 1
From a rankings and championship perspective, this lightweight co-main might place the winner higher on the “who does the UFC call for the next shot at a belt” list than any other match on the card. Gamrot (24-3, 1 NC; 7-3 UFC) is aiming to bounce back from a close loss to Dan Hooker, while Klein (23-4-1, 7-2-1 UFC) has not lost since moving to 155 pounds and is facing undoubtedly the toughest test of his career. In this classic Poland vs. Slovakia matchup, referee Herb Dean draws the charge. Before the intensity swells to a fever pitch, the fighters tap gloves together. Gamrot chases after the kickboxer almost immediately, putting pressure on him and catching him with a lunging right hand and a low kick. Gamrot wings a right hand over the top, and Klein rolls with it. Gamrot connects with another punch-kick combo, sweeping Klein’s leg but not tripping him up. Gamrot kicks up high and continues pressing ahead, with a punch drawing a smile out of Klein. “Gamer” has a head kick slap off the chest, and his keeping Klein on the back foot has held Klein to throwing much. When Klein does commit to a strike, he wobbles Gamrot to his knees with a single jab. Gamrot gets his bearing and trips on his way in, shooting for a single and pushing Klein to the wall. Gamrot successfully sits Klein down with his level change, and Klein works to a knee with Gamrot at his back. Klein is warned for grabbing the fence to help him upright, and Gamrot continues to exude heavy pressure from behind. Gamrot opens up with a number of right hands when he finds an avenue to attack, and he trips Klein’s legs out when Klein gets back up. Gamrot wrenches him down and knees him in the ribs a few times. One knee lands on the spine, and it does not receive a warning. Gamrot controls and puts his weight on the Slovakian, where he wraps a number of right hands around the guard. Gamrot hammers the body with additional knees, pounding on the ribs until he elects to drag Klein away from the fencing. Gamrot loops a hook in, where he hangs on until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot

Round 2
After the glove touch, Gamrot gets right back on the accelerator backing Klein up. Klein sits down with a kick to the side, and Gamrot grins as he uses the moment to take Klein down. In Klein’s guard, Gamrot hangs out dropping down strikes when available. Klein retaliates with heel kicks that land on Gamrot’s spine, making Dean warn him for this strike. Gamrot stacks his man up and rails him with standing-to-ground right hands, and he leaps into half guard. Gamrot presses his weight down on an arm-triangle hold, using it to keep position rather than pursue submission. Klein desperately stays busy with flailing elbows while horizontal, and Gamrot practically ignores them so he can step back over to half guard. Gamrot holds onto Klein’s ankle when Klein looks to scramble, and the Polish fighter floats over to get back on top. Gamrot beats on his opponent while on top, with his offense active enough to not draw a warning from Dean. Klein is complacent to keep striking back, but Gamrot’s blows are substantially heavier. Gamrot even uses a can opener on the back of Klein’s neck to break open his guard, and this forces Gamrot to his feet. Klein uses bicycle kicks to keep Gamrot off of him, only to backwards somersault and find Gamrot on his back. Klein works his way to the fencing and one knee before standing up, and both men throw head kicks before breaking. Gamrot drives a one-two down the pipe, and Klein comes after him only to eat another right hand on the jaw. Klein pitches out a few kicks, including a spin kick that misses the mark, and Gamrot evades them and pecks out with a right hand before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot

Round 3
Almost certainly down on the scorecards, Klein rushes out of his corner aggressively and starts throwing kicks. Gamrot responds with a few and catches him with a right hand, and he shoots in for a double. Klein stuffs it and gets up, where he uses his distance strikes to keep Gamrot at bay. Klein scores a body kick and a left hand over the top, and Gamrot counters but is more inclined on grappling. Klein intercepts a takedown with a knee to the chest, and it stops Gamrot well enough. Klein gets back to walking the ranked man down, where they fire off kicks at the other. Gamrot may be fading as he looks to the clock, but it might be a little sandbagging as he drills Klein with a right hand and a few sharp jabs. Klein responds with a head kick that just brushes off the guard, and Gamrot drives him back with two hard right hands. Klein’s left hand misses, but his body kick does not. Gamrot looks for an uppercut, and Klein lances him with a left hand that makes Gamrot think twice about his approach. Nevertheless, it is Gamrot who strikes first, and he keeps Klein honest with punch combinations. Gamrot lands a jab and a right hand, and Klein doubles up on kicks. Gamrot shoots for a single, and on his second effort, he puts “Mr. Highlight” on his back. Gamrot, comfortably in the guard, drums on Klein with punches and hammerfists. Gamrot advances his position, and Klein retaliates by rolling over. Gamrot bowls him back over again, this time getting to side control where he can drop down strikes and even wrap up Klein’s right arm in a potential crucifix. Gamrot continues clobbering his opponent from position, beating the Slovakian down with punches and elbows until the final second. When the bell rings, Gamrot and his foe embrace, happy that their 15-minute endeavor has come to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot (30-27 Gamrot)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot (30-27 Gamrot)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gamrot (30-27 Gamrot)

The Official Result
Mateusz Gamrot def. Ludovit Klein via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his smooth striking, accuracy, and 90% takedown defense. He notes that Gamrot is chinny and gets dropped often, and that Klein will do damage on the feet while Gamrot holds on. He prefers a prop bet of 'inside the distance/decision no action' because Klein has finishing upside and Gamrot could win a takedown-heavy decision.

Prefers 'inside the distance/decision no action' bet on Klein; mentions plus 3.5 round spread.
"Ludovit's going to be the pick. But because I'm a scaredy-cat instead of outright betting on Ludovit, I'll probably do a win inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, noting this is a massive step down in competition for Gamrot compared to his recent fights. He expects Gamrot to wrestle for 15 minutes, using the small cage to his advantage. He worries about judges in a damage-over-control era but still believes Gamrot wins a decision.

by decision
"I got to go Gamerot. I'm going to take Gameamro by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor agrees with Zane that Gamrot is the clear pick. He emphasizes that Klein's tendency to be a back-foot, pot-shot striker will not work against Gamrot's pressure and wrestling. Connor also notes that Klein's wrestling, when he uses it, will only lead him into Gamrot's world, where Gamrot is superior. He compares the matchup to Klein's fight with Michael Trizano, where Klein was out-jabbed, and expects a similar outcome with Gamrot's wrestling being the difference.

"I think it'll look probably a little bit like that, uh, trisano fight with single legs. Mm-hmm. And that sounds like a gamrott wind to me. It really does odds on the fight camera is the favorite of a minus …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Matt picks Ľudovít Klein as an underdog. He believes Klein's 91% takedown defense and power striking will neutralize Gamrot's wrestling. Klein lands damaging shots and should win the first two rounds, potentially pulling off the upset. Matt likes Klein by decision at +330.

Klein by decision +330, Gamrot by decision -105
"I'm going to go Klein. Uh, Klein by decision currently sits at plus 330."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, though he acknowledges Klein's danger. He believes Gamrot's size and grappling will be key, especially after getting hurt. He notes Klein's cardio issues and that Gamrot is world-class. He predicts Gamrot wins the later rounds, possibly by finish or decision.

Third round finish or decision
"I'm gonna go with Mattesh Gamro over Ludovic Klein... I think he'll win this one against Ludvic Klein."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot because he believes Klein's style is a poor matchup for him. Klein tends to fight on the back foot, picking shots one at a time, and relies on either a wrestling advantage or a tempo advantage to win. Against Gamrot, who is a high-pressure wrestler with excellent grappling, Klein's wrestling will likely lead him into trouble. Zane also notes that Klein's recent opponents have been low-output, and Gamrot's pace and ability to wrestle will overwhelm him, similar to how Michael Trizano out-jabbed Klein.

"So it looks like a Gamrot win. It does. Gamrot. He, what the big thing that Dan Hooker showed him is that Gamrot came out and he looked more deft with his lead hand with it or his left hand. …"
LOSS vs Dan Hooker
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Hooker 0 64 of 129 49% 88 of 154 5 of 15 33% 0 0 4:59
Mateusz Gamrot 0 65 of 143 45% 82 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Hooker 0 26 of 54 48% 31 of 59 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Mateusz Gamrot 0 20 of 43 46% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Dan Hooker 0 11 of 17 64% 27 of 34 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Mateusz Gamrot 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Dan Hooker 0 27 of 58 46% 30 of 61 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:51
Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 66 42% 31 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Hooker 64 of 129 49% 56 of 119 6 of 8 2 of 2 43 of 97 2 of 2 19 of 30
Mateusz Gamrot 65 of 143 45% 41 of 111 24 of 32 0 of 0 44 of 119 4 of 6 17 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Hooker 26 of 54 48% 22 of 50 2 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 28 2 of 2 15 of 24
Mateusz Gamrot 20 of 43 46% 9 of 28 11 of 15 0 of 0 15 of 38 1 of 1 4 of 4
2 Dan Hooker 11 of 17 64% 8 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 6
Mateusz Gamrot 17 of 34 50% 12 of 26 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 23 1 of 1 9 of 10
3 Dan Hooker 27 of 58 46% 26 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0 27 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 66 42% 20 of 57 8 of 9 0 of 0 22 of 58 2 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo picks Mateusz Gamrot but is hesitant, acknowledging that Dan Hooker is a live underdog who can drop Gamrot, as many have. He believes Gamrot's relentless wrestling and pace will be too much, but Hooker's heart and striking make it close. He plans to bet on Hooker via the plus 3.5 round spread, expecting Hooker to win at least one round.

Will bet Dan Hooker +3.5 when prop drops
"I'm going to pick gamr ultimately I don't love it but I'm going to pick gamr because I do think the wrestling is just too [__] much."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes Gamrot's style is to spam takedowns (almost 20 per 15 minutes) and he expects Gamrot to lay on Hooker, limiting Hooker's offense. He points out that Hooker has not faced many wrestlers aside from Islam Makhachev, who submitted him in the first round. He acknowledges some arguments for Hooker based on damage scoring but believes Gamrot's takedown volume will be overwhelming. He says it's not a fight he's entirely looking forward to.

decision
"I got to go game Rod here gamr by decision makes most sense to me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody believes Hooker's pressure, durability, and fan-friendly style will sway judges, especially if Gamrot's wrestling is neutralized. He notes Gamrot has been knocked down in half his UFC fights and gasses late, while Hooker has proven cardio and a chin. Cody also mentions the possibility that Gamrot may be told not to wrestle, which would play into Hooker's hands.

"I got a hooker knocking out matus gameron"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Gamrot to win a split decision, but is hesitant due to Gamrot's sloppy striking and tendency to get dropped. He notes that Hooker has finishing upside and that Gamrot's path to victory is through grinding with takedowns and top control. Vreeland says the fight is a dog-or-pass situation and that he would not lay the juice on Gamrot.

"I'm picking gamrot to win you know like I think he's going to win a a a decision where in one round he's dropped he gets kicked with a body kick he gets dropped like but then he gets that …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Vreeland picks Gamrot, citing his relentless pressure and wrestling volume. He argues Hooker can stuff a few takedowns but cannot stop 15-20 attempts. He compares Gamrot's wrestling to Islam Makhachev's explosiveness, far superior to Jalin Turner's. He expects a grimy, grinding win for Gamrot.

"give me the gamer give me gamrot give me a russle heavy uh fight here over hooker"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Fox agrees with Gamrot, acknowledging Hooker's good performance against Turner but noting Gamrot's pressure and wrestling are a different level. He emphasizes Gamrot's relentless takedown threat and explosive entries, which he believes Hooker cannot handle over three rounds.

"I'm gonna go gamr too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes Hooker's toughness and ability to land damage from defensive positions, which could sway judges. He expects Gamrot to win by decision, but warns the line is too wide given the narrow margin. He prefers the Gamrot by decision prop if at plus money.

Gamrot by decision (if +100 or better)
"the official prediction will be gamr and gamra by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul expects Gamrot to use his wrestling to control Hooker, taking him down repeatedly and grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Hooker's toughness but believes Gamrot's chain wrestling and takedown volume will be too much. Paul also notes that Hooker hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler recently and that Gamrot's 11-takedown performance against dos Anjos shows his commitment to wrestling.

"I like a gamr by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot over Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's wins have asterisks due to injuries and long layoffs, and he questions Hooker's durability in a grappling match. He praises Gamrot's grappling, especially his low single-leg shots from distance that avoid knees, and his ability to transition without getting guillotined. He believes Gamrot will ragdoll Hooker, citing Hooker's poor takedown defense against Islam Makhachev. He also notes the fight is three rounds, which slightly helps Hooker, but still picks Gamrot.

"I'm going with matus gamr over Dan hooker... I think his grappling is going to be too good"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 57 of 102 55% 111 of 163 11 of 19 57% 0 0 7:01
Rafael dos Anjos 1 36 of 78 46% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 19 of 34 55% 40 of 61 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:35
Rafael dos Anjos 1 11 of 19 57% 14 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 18 55% 28 of 36 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:40
Rafael dos Anjos 0 12 of 25 48% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 28 of 50 56% 43 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 1:46
Rafael dos Anjos 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 57 of 102 55% 48 of 90 9 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 6
Rafael dos Anjos 36 of 78 46% 24 of 61 5 of 9 7 of 8 26 of 67 7 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 19 of 34 55% 17 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 3 of 4
Rafael dos Anjos 11 of 19 57% 9 of 14 1 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 20 3 of 4 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 28 of 50 56% 25 of 45 3 of 5 0 of 0 26 of 48 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rafael dos Anjos 13 of 34 38% 6 of 26 2 of 2 5 of 6 10 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is very confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He believes RDA has no wrestling defense and will spend much of the fight on his back. He thinks Gamrot will shoot takedowns, grind, and win. He also mentions over 2.5 rounds as a good bet.

Over 2.5 rounds should be good.
"I'm very confident in gamrat here I think he is worth the price tag and uh we're going to see an age and evolution of the sport here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision. He notes that RDA is 39 and has struggled with wrestling, and that Gamrot has the cardio to shoot many takedowns. He expects the striking to be competitive, but Gamrot's takedowns will seal each round.

win by decision
"I'm going gam Rod here gamr to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rafael dos Anjos

Cody thinks RDA is being priced as if he's completely washed, but he believes RDA is better at 155 and that the Luque loss was due to size. He thinks RDA's striking and jiu-jitsu make him competitive, and at plus money, he's worth a look.

"I think it's RDA is a dogger pass spot for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel is confident Gamrot will win, citing his wrestling and low single takedowns. He notes RDA was outwrestled by Vicente Luque, who is not known for offensive wrestling, and expects Gamrot to dominate on the ground. However, he dislikes the minus 450 price and says he would only bet if the price improves.

"I got gamr here it's just this price is terrible if this price goes down a little bit I mean gamr should be I say should be a safe parlay"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level wrestler who should be too strong, fast, and young for the aging dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has shown declining takedown defense, as seen in his loss to Vicente Luque where he was controlled for 11 minutes. Gamrot will likely get the fight to the ground and grind on dos Anjos, wearing him down. I expect Gamrot to win a decision, as finishing a durable veteran like dos Anjos is tough. The prop 'Gamrot by decision' is the best way to attack this fight without taking too much chalk.

Gamrot by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"gamrat more than worthy at minus 400 here I think he's going to be too strong too fast uh obviously younger uh and the better overall wrestler here which will allow him to get this fight to the ground and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul disagrees, pointing out that RDA has historically struggled against wrestlers and has been taken down repeatedly. He thinks Gamrot's chain wrestling, cardio, and durability will overwhelm RDA, who will likely lose the first two rounds and be unable to come back.

"I got to go with matus gamron"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his superior technical wrestling, strength, and versatility compared to RDA. He notes the three-round format benefits Gamrot's pace, and that RDA is 39 and has talked about retirement. He also highlights that Gamrot trains with Dustin Poirier, which should help his preparation. He predicts Gamrot will ragdoll RDA and win a decision or late finish.

"I'm going to go with Matas gam over rapael Doos"
WIN vs Rafael Fiziev
TKO (knee injury) R2 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 32 56% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 16 of 40 40% 17 of 42 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 16 of 27 59% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rafael Fiziev 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 32 56% 4 of 14 12 of 16 2 of 2 18 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 16 of 40 40% 11 of 31 2 of 5 3 of 4 13 of 35 1 of 1 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 16 of 27 59% 4 of 11 10 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 12 of 34 35% 7 of 25 2 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rafael Fiziev 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiziev (-155), Gamrot (+130)

Round 1
The stakes are high for these two lightweights, as a victory in this main event could vault one man into the top echelon of the division. Fiziev (12-2, 6-2 UFC) tried to reach that level against Justin Gaethje, while Gamrot (22-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) was turned away recently by Beneil Dariush. Two men – plus referee Herb Dean – enter, and one man will leave, figuratively speaking. The two contenders are intense but fully respectful, despite competing for rival camps of Kill Cliff FC and American Top Team, respectively. Fists are bumped, and they are about to be traded. Both men look for the middle of the cage to start off, and they do not throw a single strike the first 30 seconds. One finally comes, with a jab from Gamrot. Fiziev jabs the body in response, and he scrapes the midsection with a body kick. Gamrot gets off a leg kick, and he hops back when Fiziev feints towards him. Gamrot comes up missing the mark with a head kick, and Fiziev also throws an inaccurate strike up high. Gamrot steps through a jab to lands a right hand on the chin, and Fiziev does not even budge. When Gamrot attempts this blitz a second time, Fiziev strings together five punches in rapid succession to force the Polish fighter to retreat. They fire off low kicks at the same time, and Gamrot’s foot comes up and pops the cup. They both bump fists after the foul and do not take a moment. Fiziev reaches his man with a right hand, and Gamrot shoots down low as he possibly can to lift Fiziev’s leg up in the air. Fiziev miraculously stays on his feet from the attempt, and he skirts away and resets. Fiziev works the body with a kick, and he cannot avoid a one-two that comes back his way. Gamrot has a high kick glance off the shoulder, and Fiziev returns fire with a strike to the body. Fiziev swipes a right to the body, and he partially deflects a leg kick. Gamrot parries a body kick, and he springs forward with a double jab. Fiziev misses with a front kick and is able to escape a trio of punches from his opponent. Gamrot does reach his man with a jab, only for Fiziev to reply with a front kick up the middle. Fiziev hammers the lead leg with a kick that sets Gamrot down, and Gamrot spins and works his way back up without issue. Gamrot races after Fiziev, looking for another takedown, and a fast and furious scramble ensues as Fiziev hits his seat and pops up. The horn sounds, and both men high five after the final exciting exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiziev

Round 2
The lightweights bump fists to open the second round, and Gamrot is the initial aggressor. This leads him to walking into a body kick, but he presses forward to pursue a takedown. Fiziev wildly moves out of the way from the first and second attempts, but Gamrot successfully grounds him on the third effort that is chained together. Fiziev works his way towards the wall, and Gamrot looks to hold his weight on him and drag Fiziev down. Gamrot hunts for a trip, a single, a double, or anything he can muster, and Fiziev is a stone wall for this grappling exchange. Fiziev manages to push away, and he winds up and fires a body kick that pounds into Gamrot’s torso and lands with a loud thump. As Fiziev pulls it back, his left knee torques the wrong way, and Fiziev collapses and yelps in pain. Not knowing exactly what happened, Gamrot sprints towards his fallen foe and swings a few punches, and Dean is quick to rush to Fiziev’s aid and call in the medical staff. Before realizing that his opponent suffered an injury, Gamrot sprints over to his corner, where he lets out several shouts of victory. Gamrot’s excitement cools quickly when he discovers that Fiziev is hurt, and he appears saddened about this. Despite the result, Gamrot does emerge the victor and is looking towards the future. In his post-fight interview, while he states his ultimate goal is to fight champ Islam Makhachev, he does not believe he is ready for that. Instead, he calls for a fight against who he perceives to be the most dangerous grappler in the division, Charles Oliveira. Unfortunately for Gamrot, Oliveira’s dance card is full at the moment, as Oliveira will be rematching Makhachev next month for his old belt. If Gamrot fights either the winner or loser of that championship bout at UFC 294, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mateusz Gamrot def. Rafael Fiziev R2 2:03 via TKO (Knee Injury)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Fiziev for the first time against Gamrot. He notes Fiziev is the better striker and has shown a willingness to go to war. He thinks over five rounds, Fiziev will eventually catch Gamrot. However, he acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling and durability, and says Gamrot at the current moneyline is great value.

Gamrot at current moneyline is great value
"the reality is physiov probably gonna win this fight he is gonna be my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev to win by decision, noting he would max-bet Fiziev if it were a three-round fight. He praises Fiziev's striking power and improvement, but worries about his cardio in the championship rounds. He expects Fiziev to stuff takedowns early and bank the first three rounds, possibly knocking Gamrot down. He acknowledges Gamrot's relentless pace and never-slow-down cardio could make it close late.

"I'm gonna take physio to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody leans towards Gamrot as a live underdog, emphasizing that Fiziev's cardio fades in later rounds and Gamrot's wrestling can exploit that. He notes Gamrot has never been finished and has a strong chin, but acknowledges Fiziev's striking advantage early. He prefers to bet Gamrot live at a better price rather than pre-fight.

Prefers live betting on Gamrot at plus money; mentions Gamrot's takedown ability and Fiziev's fatigue in later rounds.
"I'm leaning right now towards gamrod... I would much rather just hit this live a bigger plus money price tag on the two's gamron."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Daniel sees this as a very close fight that could go either way, so he leans toward the underdog. He highlights Gamrot's relentless takedown attempts (21 vs. Tsarukyan, 19 vs. Dern) and his unique low-single wrestling style that Fiziev hasn't faced. He worries Fiziev may fade in the later rounds under constant grappling pressure, leading to Gamrot taking over in rounds 3-5. He acknowledges Fiziev's athleticism and takedown defense but thinks the volume of attempts will eventually pay off.

plus 130 underdog value; hopes line moves to plus 135
"I'm going to have to go with the plus 130 hopefully maybe even a plus 135 or a plus 40 later on in the week on gamr"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Lucrative James picks Fiziev, citing his takedown defense and Muay Thai balance to stuff Gamrot's single-leg attempts. He believes Fiziev will land critical damage on the feet and potentially finish Gamrot. Even if it goes late, he thinks Gamrot will be too damaged to capitalize on his cardio edge. He placed 3 units on Fiziev at -136.

3 units at -136
"I like Fiziev in this spot... I think he's going to defend the takedowns and knock out Gamrot on the feet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host picks Gamrot as an underdog, reasoning that Fiziev fades in later rounds while Gamrot has proven cardio and grappling over five rounds. He notes Fiziev's 90% takedown defense but believes Gamrot's relentless pressure and chain wrestling will wear him down, leading to a decision win in rounds 3-5. The host also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a good prop.

over 4.5 rounds
"give me the underdog shot on the Polish fighter here and Montage camera to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul leans slightly towards Fiziev, citing his striking advantage and improved takedown defense early. He worries about Gamrot's low volume and that judges may not reward takedowns without damage. However, he is not confident enough to bet pre-fight and will wait for weigh-ins.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly to physive but um I mean I'm gonna wait for weigh-ins and and all of that it's not a fight that I feel like I need to get money on."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The MMA Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, criticizing Mateusz Gamrot's striking as limited to a one-two and takedown attempts. He believes Fiziev's body kicks and counter shots will be effective, and predicts a first or second round TKO. He notes Fiziev's strength and low center of gravity, and argues that the 'secret better half' of lightweight (including Fiziev) tends to beat grapplers like Gamrot. He acknowledges Gamrot's wrestling but thinks Fiziev's danger will prevail.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going for Raphael physiov I just can't unsee it... I think physio is actually going to get a first or second round TKO and make a statement against gamrot"
WIN vs Jalin Turner
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 29 of 42 69% 89 of 109 4 of 12 33% 0 0 6:52
Jalin Turner 1 40 of 97 41% 62 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:26
Jalin Turner 1 12 of 31 38% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 13 of 17 76% 60 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:35
Jalin Turner 0 18 of 48 37% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Mateusz Gamrot 0 7 of 11 63% 15 of 21 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:51
Jalin Turner 0 10 of 18 55% 20 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 29 of 42 69% 18 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 8
Jalin Turner 40 of 97 41% 23 of 72 14 of 22 3 of 3 33 of 90 4 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 9 of 14 64% 4 of 8 0 of 1 5 of 5 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1
Jalin Turner 12 of 31 38% 8 of 24 4 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Mateusz Gamrot 13 of 17 76% 7 of 11 2 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jalin Turner 18 of 48 37% 11 of 37 4 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 46 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Gamrot 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 5
Jalin Turner 10 of 18 55% 4 of 11 6 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Angelo is confident in Mateusz Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Jalin Turner has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Gamrot's speed and ankle picks will be too much. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Gamrot at -190.

"I still think gamron's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing his wrestling machine style with high takedown volume. He notes Turner's takedown defense is not elite and Gamrot has the cardio to attempt many takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Gamrot, though he acknowledges Turner's power and submission threat.

"I'm gonna take matteus gamer out to win this fight I'm gonna take him to win this fight I'll say bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is tempted by Turner as an underdog. He sees a path for Turner if he can keep the fight standing and use his reach. He notes Gamrot's wrestling is elite but that he has been in close fights and can fatigue. He says if he takes Turner, he'll be the PRP pick.

Would be the PRP pick if he goes with Turner
"I'm super tempted to pull the underdog trigger man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor leans Gamrot, citing his relentless wrestling, cardio, and scrambling ability. He notes Turner's dangerous striking and guillotine threats, but believes Gamrot's takedowns and top control will neutralize Turner's offense. He mentions Turner's tendency to play guard rather than explode up, which may allow Gamrot to hold him down. However, he acknowledges Turner's one-shot knockout power makes this risky.

Mentions Gamrot opened -240, now -217; Turner +205 to +176.
"I do think Gamrot is actually going to finally get some top time in this fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Jacob picks Mateusz Gamrot, praising his relentless pressure and unique ankle pick takedowns. He believes Turner will not be able to defend the takedowns and that Gamrot will drown him. Jacob has hedges with Turner by knockout but is confident in Gamrot.

Jalin Turner by knockout (hedge)
"gameron is just so so relentless he gets better as the fights go on as well he is just going to drown this kid Jalen"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot is a high-level scrambler and wrestler who wants to drag fights to the ground. Turner is dangerous with submissions but has questionable takedown defense and struggles off his back. Gamrot will secure takedowns and grind out a decision victory.

"I think the expertise the the experience and the scrambling ability of gamra will keep him safe again against a dangerous finishing prowess of Jalen Turner and I think that we'll see gamrod start to take over the longer that …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot but is cautious. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling will be enough to secure takedowns and win rounds, but he has questions about Turner's cardio and reach. He expects a close fight and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm gonna pick gamrat but uh another fight that I'm you know very cautious about"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, citing Turner's loss to Matt Frevola via grappling. He believes Gamrot can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win a 30-27 decision, noting Turner's preparation for a striker.

"I've got to go with Matthias gamrot here over Jalen Turner... I think gamrock's gonna get this one done using his grappling to a 30-27 unanimous decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane also leans Gamrot, emphasizing his toughness and wrestling. He notes Turner's danger in transitions and his ability to land fight-ending strikes, but believes Gamrot's pressure and scrambling will wear Turner down. He points out that Turner's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Gamrot's low single may bypass Turner's guillotine attempts.

"This is a better fight for Gamrot than it is for Turner."
Scott Holtzman - Fight History
LOSS vs Clay Guida
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 66 of 183 36% 95 of 215 4 of 15 26% 0 0 5:35
Scott Holtzman 0 65 of 166 39% 77 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 23 of 79 29% 23 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 0 18 of 63 28% 19 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Clay Guida 0 17 of 40 42% 29 of 53 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:55
Scott Holtzman 0 22 of 42 52% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Clay Guida 0 26 of 64 40% 43 of 83 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:40
Scott Holtzman 0 25 of 61 40% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 66 of 183 36% 30 of 134 23 of 36 13 of 13 58 of 173 5 of 7 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 65 of 166 39% 55 of 146 5 of 13 5 of 7 60 of 160 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 23 of 79 29% 10 of 59 5 of 12 8 of 8 22 of 77 1 of 2 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 18 of 63 28% 11 of 48 3 of 9 4 of 6 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 17 of 40 42% 9 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 22 of 42 52% 21 of 40 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Clay Guida 26 of 64 40% 11 of 44 13 of 18 2 of 2 19 of 56 4 of 5 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 25 of 61 40% 23 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.

"Scott Holtzman is absolutely the pick but I think we all love clay Guida right we're all going to be rooting for him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.

Holtzman wins by decision
"give me Scott Holtzman to go out there and win a decision I think he makes it look pretty dominant"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.

"I gotta go put that plus 135 clay Guida could be the PRP pick on a 15 fight card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.

"If he keeps giving himself chances to hurt, Clay Guida at some point, I have to assume that you'll hurt him bad enough to win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.

"I think it might be a dog or pass situation to be quite Frank with you but I'm gonna lean I'm gonna lean Scotty but I'm I'm not I'm not sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.

Holtzman inside the distance
"I love the minus 150 line on him I think that's a bit of a steal and I think there's a little bit of recency bias there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Clay Guida

Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

"I'm thinking clay as well and Clay has this ability with refs or with the judges too it's just like you know he does a lot of crazy motion and stuff and doesn't really throw some strikes but it's like …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.

Holtzman by TKO (elbows)
"I'm going with Scott Holtzman over cleguider"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.

"I think he's winning his wins. His hit right now. He is beating fighters who have lost. Whatever made them good at any point has been taken from them."
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
KO (punches) R2 1:22 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 10 of 48 20% 10 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 1 39 of 63 61% 41 of 65 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 0 26 of 40 65% 28 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:37
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 2 of 15 13% 2 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 1 13 of 23 56% 13 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 10 of 48 20% 5 of 34 2 of 6 3 of 8 10 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 39 of 63 61% 17 of 38 8 of 10 14 of 15 30 of 52 6 of 6 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 8 of 33 24% 4 of 21 1 of 5 3 of 7 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 26 of 40 65% 10 of 21 6 of 8 10 of 11 22 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 2 of 15 13% 1 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 13 of 23 56% 7 of 17 2 of 2 4 of 4 8 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 5
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady is very confident in Gamrot, calling him one of his most confident picks. He praises Gamrot's well-rounded skills, good cardio, and solid striking and wrestling. He notes Holtzman is older (37), coming off a knockout loss, and has average takedown defense (66%). Brady expects Gamrot to mix in takedowns and outwork Holtzman for a clear decision. He considers Gamrot a potential parlay piece.

potential parlay piece
"gamrat's probably one of my most confident picks on the slate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody picks Gamrot, citing his superior grappling, cardio, and ring IQ. He notes Holtzman's takedown defense issues and age. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling and pressure will be too much, though he may start slow.

"i'm all over matu's camera and again yeah you're getting a better price tag at 230"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Daniel Levi picks Scott Holtzman, strongly believing that Mateusz Gamrot is overrated and his record is padded from fighting lower-level competition in KSW. He points out that Gamrot lost to Guram Kutateladze, whom Levi considers an average fighter. Levi thinks Holtzman's experience and toughness will be key, and he predicts a knockout. He also notes that Holtzman is a bigger underdog than he was against Beneil Dariush, which makes no sense to him.

Knockout
"I'm going with scotty by knockout man i think this guy camera is not hyped up to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host thinks Gamrot is the more technical striker with good wrestling and fight IQ, and that Holtzman is declining at 37. He expects Gamrot to mix in takedowns and out-strike Holtzman over three rounds. He picks Gamrot to win by decision, though he notes the -235 line is a bit wide.

Gamrot by decision
"i think gamra is the much more technical striker here i think he's gonna have the ability to mix it up"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, noting his wrestling advantage and Holtzman's struggles against grapplers. He thinks Gamrot's technique and cardio will win out, though he may start slow. He expects Gamrot by decision.

"i think gamrock gets on track here uh gamrat probably gamrat by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, calling him a much better well-rounded fighter than Scott Holtzman. He notes Holtzman is coming off a KO loss and is older. He thinks Gamrot will out-hustle Holtzman in grappling and could get a third-round submission, but safely predicts a 30-26 unanimous decision.

30-26 unanimous decision
"i'm going with matthias scamrock getting this one done being a much better well-rounded fighter than scott holtzman"
LOSS vs Beneil Dariush
KO (spinning backfist) R1 4:38 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beneil Dariush 1 36 of 64 56% 36 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:57
Scott Holtzman 0 9 of 18 50% 11 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beneil Dariush 1 36 of 64 56% 36 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:57
Scott Holtzman 0 9 of 18 50% 11 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beneil Dariush 36 of 64 56% 30 of 57 3 of 4 3 of 3 33 of 60 3 of 4 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 9 of 18 50% 4 of 12 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beneil Dariush 36 of 64 56% 30 of 57 3 of 4 3 of 3 33 of 60 3 of 4 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 9 of 18 50% 4 of 12 3 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beneil Dariush (158: Missed Weight) vs. Scott Holtzman

Round 1
Kicking off the main card is another catchweight contest, this time down one scheduled weight class as Dariush (18-4-1, 12-4-1 UFC) came in two pounds heavy against “Hot Sauce” Holtzman (14-3, 7-3 UFC). Our Octagon ranger overseeing the match is Herb Dean, and despite the weight miss, there is a touch of gloves to signify the respect between these two men. Holtzman sticks out his jab, and he ducks a counter to land a right straight. Dariush returns fire with a blistering body kick, and Holtzman stretches his fingers out and jabs Dariush in the eye with a thumb to halt the action early. Dean gives them a pause, and when they begin, they touch gloves again. Dariush kicks low a few times, and one ricochets off Holtzman’s cup. Another exchange leads to another eye poke from a jabbing pinky, and we’ve seen three fouls in 45 seconds. When the action resumes again, Dariush comes out swinging. He charges forward with a few punches and turns that into a takedown attempt, lifting up the single and his opponent in the air but unable to secure it. One of the punches in the prior exchange has opened up a cut above Holtzman’s eye, and it has started to leak into his eye. Dariush grinds him hard on the fence as Holtzman tries to fend him off, and “Hot Sauce” breaks free and lands a few hard hooks. Dariush blasts Holtzman with a knee about as clean as anyone can land, and Holtzman is hurt badly. Dariush swings wildly and lands several more times as Holtzman tries to survive. Dariush rips a few more knees as Holtzman falls towards the ground, with the latter attempting a desperation takedown. Dariush stuffs it and takes his back for a moment, but Holtzman gathers his senses and presses Dariush to the cage. Dariush cracks him with another knee and a left hand on the break, and Holtzman’s knees are still very weak. Dariush slings and misses a head kick, and Holtzman counters with a crisp left of his own. Dariush tags him with a left, and misses wildly with a head kick. The two men swing and evade strikes, and Dariush checks a leg kick and lands heavy shots. Dariush clubs him with several powerful shots, and Holtzman is stumbling across the cage in grave danger.
Dariush walks forward calmly and spins without any telegraphing, and scorches “Hot Sauce” with a back fist that may have actually been more of his forearm, and Holtzman is done like dinner.
Dean jumps in to rescue Holtzman, who has now suffered the first stoppage loss of his career after a wild battle.

The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Scott Holtzman R1 4:38 via TKO (Spinning Backfist)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Big Brady picks Dariush, citing his overall talent and ability to take the fight to the ground. He notes Holtzman's power and durability as concerns but believes Dariush can avoid getting knocked out and secure a decision or submission. He predicts a decision win for Dariush.

"i'm leaning towards dariush you know being able to not get knocked out being able to fight smart and get this fight to the ground and possibly get a submission uh but i'm gonna go with decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Beneil Dariush

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush to win, but with caution. He notes that Dariush is the more skilled fighter with a serious black belt in jiu-jitsu and good striking, but he has a questionable chin and gets rocked in almost every fight. Levi believes Dariush's grappling advantage will be key, especially if he can take Holtzman's back. He also mentions that Holtzman is live if he can survive the first round and land a big shot, but ultimately leans with Dariush.

"i still lean with bonille because i think overall he's the more skilled guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Holtzman has quicker hands and better in-and-out movement, and he can crack Dariush's chin. Dariush's striking defense is suspect, and he needs to get the fight to the ground to win. Holtzman's pressure and countering opportunities could lead to a KO. However, the under 2.5 rounds is the best bet as both have finishing ability.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'll go with Holtzman to win this fight by ko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Beneil Dariush

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush to win by submission in the later rounds. He notes that Scott Holtzman is tough but lacks finishing ability, while Dariush has a history of winning fights even when losing early. He expects Holtzman to win the first round, but Dariush to take over in the third and secure a submission.

submission in later rounds
"dariush gets the job done against scott holtzmann by submission in the later rounds"
WIN vs Jim Miller
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 · Feb 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Scott Holtzman 0 58 of 121 47% 66 of 131 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Jim Miller 0 88 of 197 44% 120 of 231 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Scott Holtzman 0 20 of 46 43% 21 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 17 of 54 31% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
2 Scott Holtzman 0 12 of 23 52% 17 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Jim Miller 0 31 of 59 52% 43 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:50
3 Scott Holtzman 0 26 of 52 50% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 40 of 84 47% 57 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Scott Holtzman 58 of 121 47% 33 of 93 13 of 15 12 of 13 44 of 104 11 of 14 3 of 3
Jim Miller 88 of 197 44% 77 of 180 5 of 8 6 of 9 70 of 169 10 of 16 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Scott Holtzman 20 of 46 43% 11 of 35 3 of 4 6 of 7 18 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jim Miller 17 of 54 31% 13 of 45 2 of 5 2 of 4 15 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Scott Holtzman 12 of 23 52% 6 of 17 3 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 18 2 of 3 2 of 2
Jim Miller 31 of 59 52% 28 of 55 0 of 0 3 of 4 21 of 44 2 of 3 8 of 12
3 Scott Holtzman 26 of 52 50% 16 of 41 7 of 8 3 of 3 18 of 42 8 of 10 0 of 0
Jim Miller 40 of 84 47% 36 of 80 3 of 3 1 of 1 34 of 73 6 of 11 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Scott Holtzman

Round 1
Up next is a man in Miller (31-13, 1 NC; 20-12, 1 NC UFC) who sports nearly three times the MMA experience as his opponent, “Hot Sauce” Holtzman (13-3, 6-3 UFC), at lightweight. Miller will tie Donald Cerrone with the most appearances in UFC history (34) by competing tonight, although we do not expect that record to hold for long by either man. The two engage in dueling 1980’s walkouts, as Holtzman uses “Wanted Dead or Alive” by Bon Jovi, while Miller counters with “Working for the Weekend” by Loverboy. Referee Robert Romero may not want to admit it, but he enjoyed the walkout music as much as everyone else did. Holtzman opens up with pawing jabs to find his range, and Miller is the first to commit with a strike by missing with a long left hand. Miller kicks the leg out from beneath “Hot Sauce,” but Holtzman springs back to his feet without issue. Holtzman throws a low kick, and lazily flicks out a right front kick that misses, so Miller times a counter left hand and nearly kicks the leg out again. Miller avoids a looping right hand with another quick counter left. Miller backs up, and then lands a heavy body kick before switching to the other side with a powerful left hook. Miller targets that lead leg again with a kick, and Holtzman responds with a front kick that falls short of the target. Holtzman feints and fakes his way in, but Miller does not bite on those and times a knee up the middle and a straight left. Holtzman crowds Miller against the cage, but “A-10” throws a high kick and then crashes forward to consider a takedown. Holtzman spins him off and pushes Miller against the fence, so Miller lifts up a quick knee. Miller breaks free and lands a left, so the two trade punches. Holtzman stings Miller with a right, so Miller replies in kind. As Miller charges forward, Holtzman tags Miller with a right, and then lands another. One of the punches in the series from Holtzman has opened up the nose of Miller, so Miller rushes forward with an uppercut that just misses the mark. Holtzman wings a right hand, and as he misses, Miller comes right back at him. Miller cracks Holtzman with a left hand that wobbles the legs of the man from Tennessee, but he is quick to get his bearings as he avoids a superman punch coming his way. This close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
This is the first time Miller has seen a second round in quite some time, and it begins furiously, as both land on one another heavily. Holtzman lands a leg kick, and initiates the clinch where he ties Miller up against the fence. Miller eats an elbow, and tries to set up a Thai clinch but instead fires an elbow back at him. Holtzman whiffs with an uppercut, and Miller is fast on the counter. Holtzman swings with a spinning elbow, and Miller ducks and immediately pursues the back of his opponent. Holtzman thwarts a takedown attempt and pushes free from a potentially dangerous position, and starts loading up on shots. Miller takes several punches and is hurt and bloodied up. Miller, ever the action fighter, throws right back and lands harshly. Miller fires a head kick that is blocked, and as he tries to swing for the fences, Holtzman races forward to clinch up. Holtzman trips the legs out and gets Miller down in full guard. Miller’s corner calls for Mission Control, and Miller obliges, lifting his leg to tie up Holtzman as his corner calls for other moves from the 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu repertoire. Briefly flirting with an omoplata, Holtzman avoids the maneuver and stands back up before dropping back down with some heavy elbows. Miller avoids the brunt of the damage but still absorbs some powerful strikes as he tries to kick off and get free. The round ends with Holtzman standing back up again.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman

Round 3
A bloody Miller walks forward and lands a solid left, but Holtzman replies with a stiff right that snaps the head back of the longtime vet. Holtzman splits the guard with an uppercut, and Miller tries to counter and nearly falls over. Miller loads up with a pair of left hands, and Holtzman keeps moving to avoid most of them flush. Miller connects with one and stands up Holtzman, and “Hot Sauce” fires back with a solid right as he presses Miller against the fence. Miller circles out and the two start trading, but Holtzman is landing more effectively as Miller’s movement appears to be somewhat compromised. Holtzman lands a stern right hand, and avoids a huge looping shot from Miller as he clinches up again. Holtzman brings up a few knees to the sternum, and fires an elbow and a few quick punches to the body. Miller gets free after eating some serious shots, and kicks the leg out from beneath Holtzman again. Miller is unable to capitalize on it, and Holtzman begins to target the head and body of his opponent with some vicious punches. Miller throws back, but his counters are increasingly labored and Holtzman is able to evade them in time. Holtzman closes the distance to hold Miller against the cage wall, and after a brief clinch period, Miller shoves him away with around 30 seconds left. With reckless abandon, Miller throws wild punches, and Holtzman follows with some of his own. Holtzman leaps in the air with a knee, tries to spin with an elbow, and Miller aims a head kick back at his direction. The two warriors trade until the bitter end, and then raise their arms in victory after hard-fought battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman (29-28 Holtzman)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman (30-27 Holtzman)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holtzman (29-28 Holtzman)

The Official Result
Scott Holtzman def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Daniel Levi picks Scott Holtzman to win by unanimous decision, possibly a late TKO. He believes Holtzman is the more physical fighter with more left in the tank, and that if he avoids Miller's early guillotine and big shots, he can implement calf kicks and grind out a win. He notes Miller's tendency to gas if extended.

unanimous decision, late TKO, calf kicks as key weapon
"I'm gonna go with Scott Holtzman view a decision as well possibly a late TKO"
WIN vs Dong Hyun Ma
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Scott Holtzman 1 44 of 92 47% 55 of 108 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:54
Dong Hyun Ma 0 16 of 58 27% 20 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Scott Holtzman 1 8 of 25 32% 12 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:07
Dong Hyun Ma 0 5 of 10 50% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Scott Holtzman 0 36 of 67 53% 43 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:47
Dong Hyun Ma 0 11 of 48 22% 13 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Scott Holtzman 44 of 92 47% 37 of 77 2 of 2 5 of 13 33 of 72 5 of 5 6 of 15
Dong Hyun Ma 16 of 58 27% 13 of 54 2 of 2 1 of 2 15 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Scott Holtzman 8 of 25 32% 6 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 9 4 of 15 3 of 3 1 of 7
Dong Hyun Ma 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Scott Holtzman 36 of 67 53% 31 of 62 1 of 1 4 of 4 29 of 57 2 of 2 5 of 8
Dong Hyun Ma 11 of 48 22% 9 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 1 10 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Nik Lentz
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nik Lentz 0 54 of 122 44% 86 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Scott Holtzman 0 71 of 122 58% 79 of 130 5 of 19 26% 1 0 6:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nik Lentz 0 5 of 20 25% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Scott Holtzman 0 32 of 43 74% 38 of 49 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:44
2 Nik Lentz 0 17 of 48 35% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Scott Holtzman 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 2 of 5 40% 1 0 1:45
3 Nik Lentz 0 32 of 54 59% 43 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 0 16 of 34 47% 18 of 36 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nik Lentz 54 of 122 44% 39 of 99 13 of 21 2 of 2 40 of 107 7 of 8 7 of 7
Scott Holtzman 71 of 122 58% 39 of 88 16 of 18 16 of 16 55 of 105 16 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nik Lentz 5 of 20 25% 3 of 14 1 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 32 of 43 74% 11 of 21 7 of 8 14 of 14 17 of 27 15 of 16 0 of 0
2 Nik Lentz 17 of 48 35% 11 of 40 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 23 of 45 51% 14 of 35 7 of 8 2 of 2 22 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nik Lentz 32 of 54 59% 25 of 45 7 of 9 0 of 0 19 of 41 6 of 6 7 of 7
Scott Holtzman 16 of 34 47% 14 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Alan Patrick
KO (elbows) R3 3:42 · UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Oct 06, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Scott Holtzman 1 73 of 111 65% 96 of 138 1 of 2 50% 0 0 5:33
Alan Patrick 0 25 of 62 40% 27 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Scott Holtzman 0 19 of 34 55% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:13
Alan Patrick 0 11 of 25 44% 12 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Scott Holtzman 0 23 of 35 65% 34 of 48 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Alan Patrick 0 11 of 25 44% 12 of 26 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Scott Holtzman 1 31 of 42 73% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:07
Alan Patrick 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Scott Holtzman 73 of 111 65% 55 of 91 8 of 10 10 of 10 27 of 56 6 of 6 40 of 49
Alan Patrick 25 of 62 40% 16 of 45 8 of 14 1 of 3 22 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Scott Holtzman 19 of 34 55% 10 of 25 4 of 4 5 of 5 13 of 26 1 of 1 5 of 7
Alan Patrick 11 of 25 44% 5 of 15 5 of 7 1 of 3 9 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 1
2 Scott Holtzman 23 of 35 65% 16 of 26 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 18 5 of 5 9 of 12
Alan Patrick 11 of 25 44% 8 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Scott Holtzman 31 of 42 73% 29 of 40 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 26 of 30
Alan Patrick 3 of 12 25% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Dec 09, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Scott Holtzman 0 49 of 82 59% 173 of 212 7 of 11 63% 0 0 9:49
Darrell Horcher 0 36 of 63 57% 60 of 87 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Scott Holtzman 0 20 of 29 68% 44 of 54 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:32
Darrell Horcher 0 12 of 19 63% 20 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:32
2 Scott Holtzman 0 19 of 38 50% 47 of 69 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:38
Darrell Horcher 0 14 of 23 60% 24 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Scott Holtzman 0 10 of 15 66% 82 of 89 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:39
Darrell Horcher 0 10 of 21 47% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Scott Holtzman 49 of 82 59% 28 of 60 20 of 21 1 of 1 12 of 37 13 of 15 24 of 30
Darrell Horcher 36 of 63 57% 28 of 54 5 of 6 3 of 3 13 of 32 15 of 21 8 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Scott Holtzman 20 of 29 68% 11 of 20 9 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 12 6 of 6 10 of 11
Darrell Horcher 12 of 19 63% 6 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 1 of 5 8 of 9 3 of 5
2 Scott Holtzman 19 of 38 50% 13 of 31 6 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 16 1 of 3 14 of 19
Darrell Horcher 14 of 23 60% 13 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 2 of 3 5 of 5
3 Scott Holtzman 10 of 15 66% 4 of 9 5 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0
Darrell Horcher 10 of 21 47% 9 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 12 5 of 9 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Big Brady is very confident in Gamrot, calling him one of his most confident picks. He praises Gamrot's well-rounded skills, good cardio, and solid striking and wrestling. He notes Holtzman is older (37), coming off a knockout loss, and has average takedown defense (66%). Brady expects Gamrot to mix in takedowns and outwork Holtzman for a clear decision. He considers Gamrot a potential parlay piece.

potential parlay piece
"gamrat's probably one of my most confident picks on the slate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Cody picks Gamrot, citing his superior grappling, cardio, and ring IQ. He notes Holtzman's takedown defense issues and age. He thinks Gamrot's wrestling and pressure will be too much, though he may start slow.

"i'm all over matu's camera and again yeah you're getting a better price tag at 230"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Scott Holtzman

Daniel Levi picks Scott Holtzman, strongly believing that Mateusz Gamrot is overrated and his record is padded from fighting lower-level competition in KSW. He points out that Gamrot lost to Guram Kutateladze, whom Levi considers an average fighter. Levi thinks Holtzman's experience and toughness will be key, and he predicts a knockout. He also notes that Holtzman is a bigger underdog than he was against Beneil Dariush, which makes no sense to him.

Knockout
"I'm going with scotty by knockout man i think this guy camera is not hyped up to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The host thinks Gamrot is the more technical striker with good wrestling and fight IQ, and that Holtzman is declining at 37. He expects Gamrot to mix in takedowns and out-strike Holtzman over three rounds. He picks Gamrot to win by decision, though he notes the -235 line is a bit wide.

Gamrot by decision
"i think gamra is the much more technical striker here i think he's gonna have the ability to mix it up"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, noting his wrestling advantage and Holtzman's struggles against grapplers. He thinks Gamrot's technique and cardio will win out, though he may start slow. He expects Gamrot by decision.

"i think gamrock gets on track here uh gamrat probably gamrat by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Gamrot, calling him a much better well-rounded fighter than Scott Holtzman. He notes Holtzman is coming off a KO loss and is older. He thinks Gamrot will out-hustle Holtzman in grappling and could get a third-round submission, but safely predicts a 30-26 unanimous decision.

30-26 unanimous decision
"i'm going with matthias scamrock getting this one done being a much better well-rounded fighter than scott holtzman"