vs
-164 +150

Sam Alvey

10-13-1
UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 2"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Julian Marquez
5.06 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
5.35 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
54.0% TD Def.
2.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Sam Alvey
3.28 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.63 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.06 TD Avg
14.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Julian Marquez
Moneyline
FanDuel -164
KO/TKO
BetWay +175
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
BetWay +275
Sam Alvey
Moneyline
BetWay +150
KO/TKO
BetWay +400
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
BetWay +350
Julian Marquez - Fight History
LOSS vs Cody Brundage
KO R1 4:45 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cody Brundage 1 44 of 79 55% 68 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Julian Marquez 0 37 of 73 50% 53 of 96 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cody Brundage 1 44 of 79 55% 68 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Julian Marquez 0 37 of 73 50% 53 of 96 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cody Brundage 44 of 79 55% 39 of 71 1 of 2 4 of 6 34 of 65 5 of 8 5 of 6
Julian Marquez 37 of 73 50% 31 of 64 5 of 8 1 of 1 24 of 51 13 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cody Brundage 44 of 79 55% 39 of 71 1 of 2 4 of 6 34 of 65 5 of 8 5 of 6
Julian Marquez 37 of 73 50% 31 of 64 5 of 8 1 of 1 24 of 51 13 of 22 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Marquez (-155), Brundage (+130)

Round 1
The year is 2025, and the UFC has placed Brundage (10-6, 1 NC; 4-5, 1 NC UFC) and Marquez (9-5, 3-4 UFC)—two men with UFC records below .500—in a co-main event slot. With dueling walkouts of “Fantasy” by Mariah Carey for the former and the Beastie Boys’ “Sabotage” for the latter, all 50 or so people visible in the Apex are having a blast. The middleweights will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith. They touch gloves. Marquez runs forward and stops just before getting kicked in the head, but Brundage comes at him with a knee and a massive right hand. A second bomb of a right hand hurts Marquez, who stumbles back and bounces off the fence to stay afloat. Brundage leaps at him with a flying knee, and when he misses, Marquez pushes him away and may have gotten away with an eye poke. Brundage wipes at his eye and lets loose a head kick, and he chops at the front leg with a kick. Brundage sits down on a right hand when Marquez is aiming at the body, and he beats “The Cuban Missile Crisis” to the punch with a jab and an overhand right. Brundage snaps the head back with an uppercut, and he gets pushed back from the blunt force of a clubbing punch from his opponent. Brundage leaps at his man and lands on the ground, and Marquez dives down for a possible takedown. Brundage locks up a Dave Schultz front headlock, and Marquez fights out of it, gets to his feet and drills Brundage with a left hand. Brundage shakes it off and strikes back with a right hand up top, and both men start swinging for the fences from up close. Brundage breaks up the firefight with a head kick, and he leans back as a right hook zooms past him. Brundage settles himself down and chips at the front leg, and Marquez snaps out a power jab and follows it with a monster right hand that dislodges Brundage’s mouthpiece. Brundage, in grave danger, leans over and finds himself in guillotine choke danger. Through sheer force of will, Brundage leans up and surges into action with hilariously damaging punches. Brundage knocks Marquez’ mouthpiece out as well in a scene out of an action movie, and both men blast one another with everything they have. Smith finds a moment to pause and give them both their gumshields back, and they replace them and come back out swinging.
With shades of the Toughman contests of old, both middleweights decide that it is time to slug one another in the face violently and brutally until Marquez hits the deck courtesy of a tremendous right hand. Brundage leaps on top and starts blasting with his free right hand, and Marquez desperately shoots for a takedown to try to get his wits back. Brundage does not let his man off the hook, hammering the MMA Lab fighter with thudding blows. Smith implores Marquez to fight back, but the way Brundage is positioned from behind with his left arm wrapping up Marquez, Marquez is unable to posture up or defend himself. As punches continue rapping Marquez upside the head, Smith has no choice but to say enough is enough and call an end to this ridiculous slobberknocker.
Overcome with emotions, a tear-stricken Brundage roars, and the Apex gets about as loud as it possibly can be after that gunslinger’s duel giving it up for the two men in the Octagon. Marquez removes his gloves after the terrific match but does not appear to leave them in the cage, perhaps deciding not to make a rash decision after such a fun clash.

The Official Result
Cody Brundage def. Julian Marquez R1 4:45 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Cody Brundage

Angelo picks Cody Brundage, citing his wrestling background, power, and the fact that Julian Marquez is coming off back-to-back knockout losses with a year layoff. He acknowledges Brundage's questionable fight IQ but believes he is a good fighter overall. He also notes that both fighters are exciting and expects the fight to end early.

Under on total rounds (fight likely ends early)
"Cody Brun wins this fight I don't know if it's going to be as clear as the Power Bomb win over Zack ree but I do think Cody brunish can win this fight but like every other Cody Brundage or …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady hesitantly picks Julian Marquez, citing his durability and heart, as well as a slick submission game. He notes Cody Brundage is more skilled but has a bad nail and may quit if hurt. He predicts Marquez will win by first-round submission after Brundage gets hurt and shoots for a takedown.

Marquez by submission round 1; 'club and sub'
"I'll pick Marquez to win this fight by submission club and sub... give me Julian Marquez first round club and sub"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Connor picks Marquez, noting that Brundage has a single idea that quickly exhausts, while Marquez is a willing scrapper who can fight through adversity. He mentions that Marquez has been getting knocked out lately but still has the toughness to outlast Brundage. Connor also jokes about Marquez's personality but sticks with him as the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm still picking marquez. But this is a stupid ass fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

The host expects a chaotic matchup and suggests the under 1.5 rounds is the best bet. He leans with Marquez, believing his power striking and slick submissions can catch Brundage, who has been hurt repeatedly. However, he notes Brundage could also catch Marquez, who has lost three straight by knockout. He predicts a club-and-sub within the first round and a half.

under 1.5 rounds minus 150, club and sub within first round and a half
"I'm going to have to lean with Marquez as I believe his power striking approach and Slick submissions could eventually catch Brundage in some trouble we've seen Brundage get hurt over and over again and I think Marquez is able …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Cody Brundage

The Guru picks Cody Brundage over Julian Marquez. He notes Marquez is on a three-fight losing streak, older, and possibly struggling with drinking. Brundage is younger, hungrier, and has finishing potential. He predicts a finish for Brundage.

"I'm going with Cody Brundage... I'm going to say that Cody brandage gets this one done maybe by finish himself."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Zane picks Marquez despite his recent knockout losses, citing Marquez's willingness to scrap and fight through adversity. He notes that Brundage has a one-plan approach that falls apart after 30 seconds, and while Brundage might have a good idea early, Marquez's brawling will eventually overwhelm him. Zane acknowledges the fight is low-level but favors Marquez's toughness.

Marquez opened -147, now -137; Brundage opened +113, now +124. Zane says the line should be dead even.
"So, yeah, i'm i'm still picking marquez. But this is a stupid ass fight."
LOSS vs Zachary Reese
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 0:20 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zachary Reese 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 1 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zachary Reese 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 1 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zachary Reese 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zachary Reese 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Zachary Reese

Angelo leans Zachary Reese, but with low confidence. He notes that Reese is massive for the weight class and has power, but he looked stiff in his last fight and was power bombed. Julian Marquez is tough and dangerous everywhere, but he has been knocked out in his last two fights and has a year layoff. Angelo thinks Reese can weather the early storm and beat a fading Marquez.

"I still believe in zachar I think he can avoid some chaos early weather a storm and I think he can beat a fledging Julian Marquez low confidence here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Julian Marquez to win by first-round knockout. He is not sold on Zachary Reese's UFC caliber, noting his poor competition and tendency to end up on bottom. He thinks Marquez is the much better striker and will smoke Reese if his suspicions are correct.

knockout round 1
"give me Julian Marquez to win this fight I'll say it's first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

Cody picks Reese as a slight underdog, noting that Marquez has significant health issues and has not looked good in recent fights. Reese is a big, athletic fighter with first-round finishing ability, but his cardio is untested. Cody believes if Reese can survive the first round, Marquez's poor cardio and durability issues will allow Reese to take over. He acknowledges it's a shot in the dark but leans towards Reese.

"this program we've gotus 130 plus 110 so Reese is the dog that's the side I'm that's the side I'm regardless that was yeah regardless that was the side I was going to end up taking but it's a shot …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Daniel picks Marquez based on experience, noting that Reese has never faced real competition and was fraud-checked by Cody Brundage. He acknowledges Marquez has looked terrible since returning from injury but believes his durability and veteran tactics can overcome Reese's size and reach. He calls it a dart throw but leans Marquez.

"I just have to go with Julian Marquez based off the experience he's been there done that"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Julian Marquez

Jacob picks Julian Marquez, noting that Reese eats right hands and was slammed by Cody Brundage. He thinks Marquez will come forward and land bombs, and Reese's chin is suspect. He also warns that going to the ground with Reese is dangerous due to his length, but Marquez's power should be enough. Jacob is confident Marquez gets the win.

"Julian Marquez throws right hands and this dude seems to eat right hands I'm going Julian Marquez"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Marquez is a veteran power puncher with a sneaky submission game, while Reese is reckless and was knocked out by a slam in his last fight. This should be a barn burner with both throwing heavy shots. Marquez should finish Reese quickly, making under 1.5 rounds a strong play at -155.

under 1.5 rounds at -155
"I'm leaning more so the under one and a half more than anything I'm currently seeing it around minus 155 which I think is a tremendous line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

Paul picks Reese, citing Marquez's health issues and inactivity. He notes that Reese is younger, longer, and has more pop in his hands. Paul thinks this will be a sloppy fight and favors the younger fighter with less wear and tear. He expects Reese to have a chance if he can avoid Marquez's early power.

"this is going to be a slot Fest Cody um and in a slop Fest I am more like likely to go with the guy who's a little bit younger a little bit less wear and tear"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

The Guru picks Reese because he questions Marquez's motivation, saying Marquez seems more focused on being a personality than fighting. He notes Marquez has taken a lot of damage in his last two fights (losses to Mark-Andre Barriault and Gregory Rodrigues). Reese is younger and hungrier, and the Guru thinks Reese will catch Marquez in the first round. He acknowledges Reese lost to Cody Brundage by slam KO but was going for a submission.

First-round finish prediction
"I'm going to go Zachary Reese first round finish"
TKO (punches) R2 4:12 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marc-André Barriault 0 82 of 171 47% 83 of 172 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 0 109 of 222 49% 127 of 246 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marc-André Barriault 0 48 of 107 44% 48 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 0 32 of 80 40% 32 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marc-André Barriault 0 34 of 64 53% 35 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 0 77 of 142 54% 95 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marc-André Barriault 82 of 171 47% 63 of 142 10 of 18 9 of 11 63 of 141 19 of 30 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 109 of 222 49% 91 of 202 18 of 20 0 of 0 60 of 133 49 of 89 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marc-André Barriault 48 of 107 44% 36 of 88 8 of 13 4 of 6 41 of 98 7 of 9 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 32 of 80 40% 25 of 72 7 of 8 0 of 0 31 of 77 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Marc-André Barriault 34 of 64 53% 27 of 54 2 of 5 5 of 5 22 of 43 12 of 21 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 77 of 142 54% 66 of 130 11 of 12 0 of 0 29 of 56 48 of 86 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Angelo picks Julian Marquez, citing his toughness, power, and ability to snatch submissions in scrambles. He notes that Marquez hits harder and has proven MMA jiu-jitsu. Angelo believes Marquez will come forward and not quit, while Barriault can fold under pressure.

"I like Julia Marquez here outside of getting knocked out in that last fight that dude will come forward he will bomb away he's not going to quit"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Barriault, citing his volume, cardio, and pressure on the feet, as well as the ability to wrestle if needed. He notes Marquez has power and submissions but is less defensively sound. He predicts a decision win for Barriault, acknowledging Marquez's danger.

"the pick for me is going to be Mark Andre Barrio and it's gonna be Mark Andre Barrio by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Cody picks Barriault, believing his volume and clinch work will overwhelm Marquez. He notes Marquez has declined in durability and explosiveness after injuries. He thinks Barriault wins by decision or late finish.

Fight goes to decision (+225)
"I end up taking Mark Andre Barrio"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Connor picks Julian Marquez, despite concerns about his recent stylistic changes. He believes Marquez's natural dynamism and ability to fight through chaos will overcome Barriault's more methodical but less dynamic game. Connor notes that Barriault has improved but still lacks the finishing threat and creativity that Marquez possesses, and that Marquez's submission grappling could be a factor.

"I'll side with you and take Marquez, but I'm I'm not really all that confident in it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Jacob is very confident in Julian Marquez, stating that Barriault does not belong in the UFC. He notes Marquez's power, pressure, and no-quit attitude. Jacob believes Marquez will unload on Barriault against the fence and finish him. He also mentions that Marquez may use grappling more in this fight.

"I think Mark Andre sucks I mean there's they're one of these guys does not belong in the UFC"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Barriault is a solid pressure fighter with good cardio and clinch work. Marquez has finishing power but his only path to victory is a KO, and he has been controlled in the clinch before. Barriault will use forward pressure and volume to win a decision, possibly with late finishing opportunities.

"I get why Barrio is the favorite here... if the durability issue of Barrio is not as great as I believe it is in my head Barrio should be able to have complete success in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Paul picks Barriault and has a bet on Barriault by decision at +225. He thinks Marquez's wrestling won't be enough and Barriault's volume will carry him to a decision win.

Marc-André Barriault by decision (+225)
"I took a fight ghost a decision plus 225"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

The MMA Guru picks Marc-André Barriault, noting Marquez is wild and coming off a KO loss. He believes Barriault's technical style and ability to grind out decisions against wild opponents will lead to a 29-28 win.

"I'm gonna go with Marc Andre Barrio... being able to grind out a decision win here 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Zane also picks Marquez, though he is not confident. He thinks Barriault's pressure and clinch work will force Marquez to abandon his new kickboxing approach and revert to brawling, which favors Marquez. Zane notes that Marquez is a dangerous submission grappler and has a knack for winning chaotic fights, but he worries about Marquez's recent overcorrection in style.

"I'll take Julian Marquez as well, but I think it's gonna have to basically be shaken out of his yeah."
KO (punches) R1 3:18 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 3 49 of 72 68% 50 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Marquez 3 49 of 72 68% 50 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 13 of 42 30% 8 of 36 0 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 36 0 of 6 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 49 of 72 68% 46 of 67 3 of 5 0 of 0 33 of 49 3 of 6 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 13 of 42 30% 8 of 36 0 of 1 5 of 5 13 of 36 0 of 6 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 49 of 72 68% 46 of 67 3 of 5 0 of 0 33 of 49 3 of 6 13 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, noting his well-rounded skills, BJJ black belt, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Julian Marquez's sneaky submissions and toughness but believes Rodrigues will be the better wrestler and grappler. He warns that the fight could look like Rodrigues' loss to Armen Petrosyan if he gets outstruck.

"gregory rodriguez is the pick but clear path for julian marquez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by decision. He believes Rodrigues has a clear path to victory by taking Marquez down, as Marquez has been controlled by wrestlers before. He notes Rodrigues is a legit BJJ black belt and should mix in takedowns, though he questions if Rodrigues will actually do it. He thinks Rodrigues can also win on the feet but prefers the grappling route.

decision
"I like rodriguez here i think he has a clear path to victory whether he chooses to use it or not we'll see"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues but is hesitant due to short notice and Rodrigues' cardio issues. He thinks Rodrigues is dangerous everywhere and Marquez has health problems and long layoffs. He plans to keep Rodrigues low on his card.

"rodriguez is a decent enough price tag it's the short notice of it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues, stating he is better than Julian Marquez everywhere—cleaner hands, harder punches, black belt jiu-jitsu. However, he worries about Rodrigues' decision-making, chin, and gas tank, noting Marquez has a history of coming back from adversity to finish fights. Levi thinks Rodrigues should dominate but is concerned he might find a way to lose, making the -180 price unappealing. He picks Rodrigues but with low confidence.

Rodrigues -180 is too high; Marquez +158 has comeback value
"robocop's better than this guy everywhere julian marcus it's like how is he gonna [ __ ] this up"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodrigues should dominate on the feet and Marquez's best work is in grappling. He's concerned about Rodrigues' short notice and cardio but thinks Marquez's health issues make Rodrigues the pick.

"i think gregory rodriguez is actually a pretty decent price in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, noting his good recent performances and power. He worries about Julian Marquez's tendency to make fights close and his long layoff (since April 2021). He believes Rodrigues has a reach advantage and will catch Marquez in a war, finishing him in the late second round. He calls Marquez a 'not bad underdog' but trusts the favorite.

late second round finish
"i think i'm gonna side with gregory rodriguez here over julian marquez... i'm gonna trust in gregory rodriguez to get this one done a little bit more powerful"
WIN vs Sam Alvey
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:07 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 29 of 78 37% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 61 of 100 61% 62 of 101 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 27 of 52 51% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julian Marquez 0 5 of 24 20% 5 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 34 of 48 70% 34 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 29 of 78 37% 21 of 64 4 of 8 4 of 6 28 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 61 of 100 61% 46 of 78 15 of 22 0 of 0 41 of 75 1 of 1 19 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 24 of 54 44% 16 of 44 4 of 5 4 of 5 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 27 of 52 51% 19 of 38 8 of 14 0 of 0 26 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julian Marquez 5 of 24 20% 5 of 20 0 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 34 of 48 70% 27 of 40 7 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 24 0 of 0 19 of 24
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Marquez to win by decision, despite Marquez having a 100% finish rate. He thinks Marquez will pressure and outpoint Alvey, who has not won in a long time and takes a lot of damage. Brady is not confident in the pick and is passing on betting, as he finds the fight potentially boring and the line not appealing. He notes both fighters are durable and the fight likely goes to decision.

"i'm going to take marquez to win by decision which is weird because he has a 100 finish rate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Cody picks Marquez, citing his recovery from ring rust, James Krause's coaching, and Alvey's difficult weight cut to 185. He notes Alvey's low output and lack of offensive wrestling, while Marquez has better timing and power. He expects Marquez to edge it.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100 is favorite play
"i'm hitting this over two and a half at plus one hundred"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Daniel Levi picks Sam Alvey, despite acknowledging that Alvey is a long-term fade and the blueprint to beat him is well-known. He is not sold on Julian Marquez, viewing him as an opportunistic finisher who looked horrendous against Maki Pitolo. Levi thinks the fight could be an ugly middleweight scrap that could go either way, so he goes with Alvey for the first time in years.

"I'm going to actually take alvey for the first time in years"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The host leans Alvey for the value, noting that Marquez's win over Pitolo was a sloppy fight and that Alvey has decent takedown defense and power. However, he acknowledges that Alvey fights on the back foot and hasn't won in five fights. He picks Alvey by decision, but calls the fight a 'slop fest' and advises against betting it.

"i lean alvey in terms of the value here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul leans Alvey, noting his durability and ability to lull opponents into slow fights. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Alvey's counter-punching and experience could be factors. He is not confident due to Alvey's losing streak and weight cut.

"it would be dogger pass i would take smile and sam"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

The MMA Guru picks Julian Marquez by first-round KO, despite calling Marquez 'so bad' and 'sloppy'. He notes Marquez has big power and a great chin, while Sam Alvey is moving down to middleweight after being knocked out previously. He thinks Marquez will lose some grappling exchanges early but then land a big right hand to finish Alvey. He expects Alvey to be 'frowning' after the loss.

first round knockout
"i see a first round ko for julian marquez"
WIN vs Maki Pitolo
Submission (anaconda choke) R3 4:17 · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 32 of 65 49% 70 of 110 5 of 11 45% 1 1 9:07
Maki Pitolo 0 41 of 100 41% 61 of 129 0 of 1 0% 4 1 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 10 of 16 62% 18 of 29 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:24
Maki Pitolo 0 4 of 8 50% 8 of 13 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:11
2 Julian Marquez 0 11 of 23 47% 41 of 54 3 of 4 75% 0 1 3:02
Maki Pitolo 0 11 of 40 27% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:57
3 Julian Marquez 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 27 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:41
Maki Pitolo 0 26 of 52 50% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 32 of 65 49% 16 of 46 12 of 14 4 of 5 22 of 52 7 of 8 3 of 5
Maki Pitolo 41 of 100 41% 37 of 94 3 of 4 1 of 2 18 of 72 15 of 16 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 10 of 16 62% 5 of 11 4 of 4 1 of 1 3 of 7 5 of 6 2 of 3
Maki Pitolo 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Julian Marquez 11 of 23 47% 7 of 17 3 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 19 2 of 2 1 of 2
Maki Pitolo 11 of 40 27% 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 29 0 of 0 7 of 11
3 Julian Marquez 11 of 26 42% 4 of 18 5 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maki Pitolo 26 of 52 50% 22 of 47 3 of 4 1 of 1 13 of 38 12 of 13 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Julian Marquez to win by finish, likely knockout in the second round. He thinks Marquez is the better fighter and that Pitolo has looked poor in the UFC, slowing down and being finished multiple times. He notes Marquez has a 100% finish rate and a sneaky ground game. He is concerned about Marquez's long layoff but thinks he will be prepared.

Marquez by finish; under 1.5 rounds; would bet Marquez if line drops to -120 or -110
"I like marcus here i like marcus here i know it's a risk with the long layoff"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Julian Marquez

Daniel Levi leans toward Julian Marquez but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Marquez's size and power, and that he can wear on Pitolo. However, he worries about Marquez's layoff and cardio, and thinks Pitolo could have improved training with Brad Tavares. He believes if Marquez doesn't finish early, Pitolo's volume and hands could take over. He ultimately says the lean is Marquez but it might be a pass.

Marquez by finish if early; Pitolo could win if fight extends; mentions Marquez's layoff and Pitolo's training partners
"the lean is marcus but i think it might be dog or pass actually"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Maki Pitolo

The host leans toward Pitolo as an underdog, citing his better technical striking and hand speed. He notes that Marquez has been out for three years and relies on forward pressure and big shots, which Pitolo can counter with movement. He expects Pitolo to outpoint Marquez over three rounds, though he admits some hesitation.

"i feel like the technical aspects of mackie pitolo's game will cause julian marquez some issues"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Maki Pitolo

The Guru picks Maki Pitolo as an underdog, citing Julian Marquez's long layoff and sloppy technique. He believes Pitolo's cardio and chin will allow him to survive Marquez's early power, then wear him down with body shots in the clinch and secure a third-round TKO. He notes that Marquez has never looked impressive and that Pitolo is more technical.

Pitolo by third round TKO
"i'm going to pick mackie patolo as an underdog here... i think he goes out there and just eventually wears on julian marquez and i will actually call a third round tko for mackie patolo"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Jul 06, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alessio Di Chirico 0 50 of 116 43% 55 of 122 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:59
Julian Marquez 0 47 of 147 31% 49 of 149 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alessio Di Chirico 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Julian Marquez 0 11 of 48 22% 11 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alessio Di Chirico 0 9 of 28 32% 13 of 33 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:36
Julian Marquez 0 17 of 39 43% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
3 Alessio Di Chirico 0 22 of 43 51% 23 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:06
Julian Marquez 0 19 of 60 31% 20 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alessio Di Chirico 50 of 116 43% 30 of 90 14 of 19 6 of 7 48 of 107 1 of 2 1 of 7
Julian Marquez 47 of 147 31% 28 of 120 16 of 21 3 of 6 42 of 141 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alessio Di Chirico 19 of 45 42% 10 of 34 6 of 8 3 of 3 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 11 of 48 22% 7 of 44 3 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alessio Di Chirico 9 of 28 32% 6 of 23 3 of 4 0 of 1 7 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 7
Julian Marquez 17 of 39 43% 10 of 27 6 of 9 1 of 3 14 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Alessio Di Chirico 22 of 43 51% 14 of 33 5 of 7 3 of 3 22 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Marquez 19 of 60 31% 11 of 49 7 of 9 1 of 2 17 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:42 · UFC on Fox: Lawler vs. dos Anjos · Dec 16, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 32 of 64 50% 37 of 69 0 of 3 0% 3 0 0:54
Darren Stewart 0 33 of 58 56% 37 of 66 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 21 of 40 52% 26 of 45 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:20
Darren Stewart 0 19 of 36 52% 23 of 44 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:22
2 Julian Marquez 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 2 0% 2 0 0:34
Darren Stewart 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 32 of 64 50% 29 of 60 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 30 17 of 24 7 of 10
Darren Stewart 33 of 58 56% 28 of 53 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 34 17 of 23 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 21 of 40 52% 19 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 14 11 of 16 7 of 10
Darren Stewart 19 of 36 52% 16 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 24 9 of 11 0 of 1
2 Julian Marquez 11 of 24 45% 10 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 6 of 8 0 of 0
Darren Stewart 14 of 22 63% 12 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 10 8 of 12 0 of 0
Sam Alvey - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 1:56 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Hill · Aug 06, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 2 22 of 37 59% 40 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 2 22 of 37 59% 40 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michał Oleksiejczuk 3 of 11 27% 1 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 37 59% 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 1 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michał Oleksiejczuk 3 of 11 27% 1 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 37 59% 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 1 12 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Angelo picks Michał Oleksiejczuk despite his poor performance against Dustin Jacoby. He highlights Oleksiejczuk's speed and pressure, and notes that Sam Alvey's chin may be fading after getting rocked by Brendan Allen. He believes Oleksiejczuk can stay on the outside and avoid Alvey's wild strikes to win.

"michael's going to be my pick here because even though he looked pretty bad in that fight with dustin jacoby he's still lightning fast and we saw that sam alvey's chin might be fading here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady is very confident in Michał Oleksiejczuk, noting that Sam Alvey is on an eight-fight winless streak and has not won since 2018. He describes Alvey's style as low-volume and predictable, while Oleksiejczuk is a fast starter who throws combinations and attacks the body. He predicts a first-round knockout win for Oleksiejczuk, stating that Alvey's chin is questionable and he expects a statement performance.

first round knockout prediction
"i think ola zach should win this fight and i'm actually going to take all the stage to win by knockout and i'll say he does knock out alvey in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Cody also picks Oleksiejczuk, noting that Alvey's durability is fading and he has been stopped in recent fights. He mentions that Alvey's only chance is a puncher's chance, but his power hasn't been there. Cody believes Oleksiejczuk will swarm Alvey and finish him early, especially if Alvey goes into 'YOLO mode' for his last fight.

Under 1.5 rounds (+140); fight doesn't go to decision (-170)
"Oleksiejczuk gets the job done... I would say the under one and a half rounds... this will be a violent fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Daniel Levi picks Michał Oleksiejczuk as part of a parlay with Jamahal Hill, citing Sam Alvey's eight-fight winless streak, low output, and declining chin. He expects Oleksiejczuk to walk Alvey down and land big body shots and hooks, likely finishing him in the first round. Levi notes Alvey's counter right hand and guillotine as minor threats but believes Oleksiejczuk's power and pressure will be too much.

Parlayed with Jamahal Hill at -158 to win 2 units; predicts first-round KO
"I think Me Hall's gonna walk this dude down and I think he's gonna come out here land big body shots... knock out Sam Alvey in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Paul picks Oleksiejczuk but is wary of the -700 price. He notes that Alvey is on a long losing streak and has lost durability. Paul is concerned about Oleksiejczuk's weight cut to 185 and wants to see weigh-ins. He suggests props like Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140).

Oleksiejczuk by decision (+175) or inside the distance (-140); under 1.5 rounds (+140)
"Oleksiejczuk will be the pick... minus 700 is too wide for me... I want to see the cut."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk by first-round TKO via body shot. He notes Sam Alvey's recent decline, being finished by Brendan Allen and Julian Marquez. He praises Oleksiejczuk's toughness and win over Shamil Gamzatov, and believes Alvey has no answer on the feet or on the ground. He also mentions Oleksiejczuk is only 27 and improving.

first round tko via body shot
"i'm going to go first round tko with her body shot for macaulay alex heychuck against sam alvey"
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sam Alvey 1 36 of 54 66% 36 of 54 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 18 of 43 41% 18 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sam Alvey 0 25 of 37 67% 25 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Brendan Allen 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 24 of 57 42% 20 of 52 2 of 3 2 of 2 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 36 of 54 66% 15 of 32 14 of 15 7 of 7 32 of 47 2 of 3 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 18 of 43 41% 16 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 25 of 37 67% 11 of 22 10 of 11 4 of 4 23 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 6 of 14 42% 4 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 11 of 17 64% 4 of 10 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brendan Allen vs. Sam Alvey

Round 1
Due to a late replacement, Alvey (33-16-1, 1 NC; 10-11-1, 1 NC UFC) now finds himself taking on Allen (17-5, 5-2 UFC) in the light heavyweight division. The two men that hail from an area in Wisconsin about a half hour from one another meet in the center of the cage, and referee Chris Tognoni serves as the onlooker. The gloves do not get touched, as Allen would prefer to come out fighting. Allen comes out swinging, and Alvey backs up to the wall. When Allen throws recklessly, Alvey counters him with a quick, clean right hook that shocks Allen. “All-In” shoots in for a takedown, and Alvey sprawls and pushes Allen down to the mat. “Smile’n Sam” tosses Allen away, and he backs away awaiting an advancing Allen. Allen does just that, marching forward to attack, and Alvey is prepared with a counter right hook again. Allen is wary of this strike, and as he pays attention to it, Alvey kicks his lead leg hard. Alvey connects with a one-two, and Allen shakes it off and walks face-first into a sharp punch. Allen does not slow down, kicking up high with a kick. Alvey catches it, sets the leg down and lands a fast one-two again. Allen tries to find a way in, and he reaches out with a jab to the body. As he lets loose with a high body kick, Alvey reaches out with a long left hand across the bow. Alvey’s one-two just misses again, and he lines another up right when Allen takes the forward step to him. Alvey’s range is giving Allen issues, and he again clips Allen with a right. Allen rushes in, gets pushed away and runs forward with a spinning back fist. The strike is blocked by both of Alvey’s arms, and Allen calmly backs away to start hacking at Alvey’s lead leg. Alvey tags Allen once more with a pair of punches, leading Allen to blitz in and pursue a takedown. Allen splits off and rocks Alvey with a right hook. They both throw at the same time, hurting each other, and a follow-up from Allen drops Alvey to a knee against the wall. Alvey gets up, they brawl it out for a few more seconds, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvey
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Alvey
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Alvey

Round 2
Allen leads the dance to start off the second round, with a few head kick that are blocked fully. Alvey backs off, and a foot from Allen’s spinning wheel kick grazes his jaw. Alvey blitzes ahead with a surge of punches, and he does this again to give Allen pause. Allen gathers himself and marches Alvey down, and Alvey is there with a heavy leg kick to meet him. “All-In” goes all-in with a body kick, and Alvey takes it like a champ and reaches out with a right. Allen throws up another head kick, and he punches the body and dips back out of the way when Alvey prepares to counter. Alvey charges ahead, and this assault misses the mark. Allen fires off a right to the body and a left to the head, and “Smile’n Sam” is no longer smiling from the strikes.
Alvey falls to his knees in big trouble, and Allen instantly jumps on to take Alvey’s back. Alvey leans towards the fence, only to find that Allen has set up a rear-naked choke without any hooks in. Hooks? “All-In” don't need no stinkin’ hooks. Allen crushes the windpipe with all his might, and Alvey reluctantly surrenders.
The unfortunate winless streak continues for Alvey, who took on a new opponent in a different weight class on a week’s notice.

The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Sam Alvey R2 2:10 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Angelo picks Brendan Allen but with hesitation. He notes Allen is the better athlete and wrestler, but has chin issues and is coming off a knockout loss. Alvey is on a long winless streak but has power and experience. Angelo thinks Allen should wrestle and take it seriously, but calls it a live bet fight if Allen stands and trades. He picks Allen with the assumption he wrestles.

Live bet suggestion: if Allen stands and trades, bet Alvey.
"phil haus is the pick with the assumption that he's going to wrestle and take this a little more seriously"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Alvey's only path is a knockout. He points out that Allen has better volume and technique, and that Alvey's takedown defense is historically strong but Allen's wrestling may not be good enough to take him down. However, he thinks Allen should win on the feet. He is confident in Allen.

"i am siding with brandon allen"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Daniel Levi leans Brendan Allen but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Allen is taking the fight on four days' notice, moving up to 205 lbs, and has been knocked out in two of his last three. However, he thinks Allen is the better fighter and should have the tools to beat Alvey, who often does nothing for long stretches. Levi suggests a small bet on Alvey at +325 for those looking for a dog, but his pick is Allen.

small half unit or one unit shot on alvey and hope that he can ko a guy that's out of shape in the wrong way class
"i lean brendan because i just think he's a better fighter but if i were to bed aside it'd be a small half unit or one unit shot on alvey"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Lock of the Night picks Allen, citing the massive skill discrepancy. He notes Allen's improved striking and ability to stay at range, similar to the Soriano fight. He warns that Allen should not chase takedowns excessively to avoid gassing. He likes Allen by decision at +165 and the over 2.5 rounds.

Allen by decision +165, over 2.5 rounds even money
"i do like the island side here... allen via decision at plus one that's plus 165 right now that's kind of where i'm leaning"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Paul thinks Allen is the younger, faster, and quicker fighter. He notes that Alvey is on a seven-fight winless streak and hasn't won since 2018. He believes Allen's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Alvey's only path is a lucky punch. He is confident Allen wins but acknowledges the short notice could affect his gas tank.

"i think brandon allen is the uh younger spryer faster quicker guy he just needs to show up short notice hopefully that doesn't affect the gas tank"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen (Phil Horse) but expresses concern about his chin, calling it 'genetically bad'. He notes Sam Alvey doesn't have the best chin either, and expects Allen to land better shots and get a first-round KO. However, he is hesitant due to Allen's vulnerability to being wobbled.

KO, round 1, underdog odds mentioned (over 2 to 1)
"i'm gonna go fill horse but he's got such a genetically bad chin it's worrying... i'll say phil horse gets a first round ko"
Decision (split) (27–28, 28–27, 28–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Wellington Turman 0 68 of 122 55% 114 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
Sam Alvey 0 69 of 119 57% 75 of 126 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Wellington Turman 0 8 of 20 40% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Sam Alvey 0 13 of 16 81% 17 of 20 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
2 Wellington Turman 0 26 of 44 59% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
3 Wellington Turman 0 34 of 58 58% 40 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Sam Alvey 0 32 of 59 54% 34 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Wellington Turman 68 of 122 55% 55 of 105 9 of 13 4 of 4 58 of 112 10 of 10 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 69 of 119 57% 36 of 77 19 of 27 14 of 15 63 of 113 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Wellington Turman 8 of 20 40% 8 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 13 of 16 81% 4 of 7 5 of 5 4 of 4 10 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Wellington Turman 26 of 44 59% 17 of 34 5 of 6 4 of 4 21 of 39 5 of 5 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 24 of 44 54% 12 of 29 5 of 8 7 of 7 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Wellington Turman 34 of 58 58% 30 of 52 4 of 6 0 of 0 32 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 32 of 59 54% 20 of 41 9 of 14 3 of 4 29 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Angelo picks Turman, citing his BJJ black belt, slick ground game, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes training feedback from Dan Cramer that Turman feels good. He acknowledges Alvey's deceptive power but believes Turman will get the submission.

Angelo might bet the under on rounds because he doesn't think it sees a decision.
"wellington's the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Cody picks Alvey as a dog, citing his strong takedown defense and power. He notes that Turman has poor takedown accuracy and tends to lose position on the ground. Cody thinks Alvey's veteran savvy and ability to fight 15 minutes will pay off. He is concerned about Alvey's recent losing streak but believes the style matchup favors him.

"i'm gonna have faith that he is going to get it done so this will be a dog play"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Jacob picks Turman but is hesitant, noting Turman was knocked out cold two months ago and may be hesitant. He agrees the UFC is feeding Alvey to Turman, but warns Alvey is tough and could win if he eats shots. He stayed away from betting.

"my official pick i guess would be uh would be wellington"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Lock picks Alvey by KO at +300, believing Alvey's power and durability will be too much for Turman. He notes Turman has shown poor durability, getting knocked out by Andrew Sanchez and Bruno Silva. Lock thinks Alvey's takedown defense and clinch strength will keep the fight standing, where he can land a big shot. He expects Alvey to win minutes only by knockout, not decision.

Alvey by KO +300
"sam alvi by ko at plus 300 is absolutely ridiculous as that's probably his best win condition in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul picks Alvey, surprised himself but noting that Turman is the exact type of fighter Alvey can beat. He highlights Alvey's takedown defense and left hand power. Paul thinks Turman's grappling is overrated and that he tires easily. He expects Alvey to win by knockout or decision.

Alvey inside the distance
"i'm considering a bet on sam alvey here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The Guru picks Sam Alvey as an underdog, questioning Wellington Turman's chin after two consecutive KO losses and his quick return. He believes Alvey's toughness, cardio, and grappling awareness will allow him to outlast Turman and win a unanimous decision. The Guru dismisses Turman's grappling threat and expects Alvey to display veteran savvy.

Alvey by unanimous decision
"i'm picking sam alvey to get this one done i'll say by unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Julian Marquez
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:07 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Marquez 0 29 of 78 37% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 61 of 100 61% 62 of 101 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Marquez 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 27 of 52 51% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julian Marquez 0 5 of 24 20% 5 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sam Alvey 1 34 of 48 70% 34 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Marquez 29 of 78 37% 21 of 64 4 of 8 4 of 6 28 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 61 of 100 61% 46 of 78 15 of 22 0 of 0 41 of 75 1 of 1 19 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Marquez 24 of 54 44% 16 of 44 4 of 5 4 of 5 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 27 of 52 51% 19 of 38 8 of 14 0 of 0 26 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julian Marquez 5 of 24 20% 5 of 20 0 of 3 0 of 1 5 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 34 of 48 70% 27 of 40 7 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 24 0 of 0 19 of 24
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Marquez to win by decision, despite Marquez having a 100% finish rate. He thinks Marquez will pressure and outpoint Alvey, who has not won in a long time and takes a lot of damage. Brady is not confident in the pick and is passing on betting, as he finds the fight potentially boring and the line not appealing. He notes both fighters are durable and the fight likely goes to decision.

"i'm going to take marquez to win by decision which is weird because he has a 100 finish rate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Cody picks Marquez, citing his recovery from ring rust, James Krause's coaching, and Alvey's difficult weight cut to 185. He notes Alvey's low output and lack of offensive wrestling, while Marquez has better timing and power. He expects Marquez to edge it.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100 is favorite play
"i'm hitting this over two and a half at plus one hundred"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Daniel Levi picks Sam Alvey, despite acknowledging that Alvey is a long-term fade and the blueprint to beat him is well-known. He is not sold on Julian Marquez, viewing him as an opportunistic finisher who looked horrendous against Maki Pitolo. Levi thinks the fight could be an ugly middleweight scrap that could go either way, so he goes with Alvey for the first time in years.

"I'm going to actually take alvey for the first time in years"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The host leans Alvey for the value, noting that Marquez's win over Pitolo was a sloppy fight and that Alvey has decent takedown defense and power. However, he acknowledges that Alvey fights on the back foot and hasn't won in five fights. He picks Alvey by decision, but calls the fight a 'slop fest' and advises against betting it.

"i lean alvey in terms of the value here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul leans Alvey, noting his durability and ability to lull opponents into slow fights. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Alvey's counter-punching and experience could be factors. He is not confident due to Alvey's losing streak and weight cut.

"it would be dogger pass i would take smile and sam"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

The MMA Guru picks Julian Marquez by first-round KO, despite calling Marquez 'so bad' and 'sloppy'. He notes Marquez has big power and a great chin, while Sam Alvey is moving down to middleweight after being knocked out previously. He thinks Marquez will lose some grappling exchanges early but then land a big right hand to finish Alvey. He expects Alvey to be 'frowning' after the loss.

first round knockout
"i see a first round ko for julian marquez"
LOSS vs Da Woon Jung
Draw (split) (29–28, 28–29, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Da Woon Jung 1 56 of 126 44% 61 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:25
Sam Alvey 0 59 of 166 35% 69 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Da Woon Jung 0 20 of 42 47% 20 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Sam Alvey 0 22 of 64 34% 27 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Da Woon Jung 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Alvey 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Da Woon Jung 1 17 of 35 48% 22 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Sam Alvey 0 14 of 42 33% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Da Woon Jung 56 of 126 44% 43 of 108 5 of 10 8 of 8 46 of 114 6 of 8 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 59 of 166 35% 38 of 140 3 of 8 18 of 18 56 of 162 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Da Woon Jung 20 of 42 47% 13 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 22 of 64 34% 14 of 53 1 of 4 7 of 7 21 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Da Woon Jung 19 of 49 38% 13 of 39 1 of 5 5 of 5 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 23 of 60 38% 14 of 50 2 of 3 7 of 7 23 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Da Woon Jung 17 of 35 48% 17 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 24 5 of 7 4 of 4
Sam Alvey 14 of 42 33% 10 of 37 0 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 39 1 of 2 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Big Brady is confident in Da Woon Jung, citing his high output (6.59 significant strikes per minute) compared to Alvey's low volume. He notes Jung's good chin and cardio, and struggles to see a path to victory for Alvey. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

first round knockout
"give me dongjong i'm going to predict a give me a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Da Woon Jung

Daniel Levi picks Da Woon Jung, citing his durability, discipline, and jab. He notes that Alvey is on the decline and has been figured out, with his only recent knockout being against a low-level opponent. Levi believes Jung will stay technical, pick Alvey apart with the jab, and avoid the counter right hook, likely winning by early knockout.

Jung opened -600 and has been bet down to -330; Alvey's chin isn't the same at 205; Jung will win early, possibly first round
"i'm going with dawun jung to get the biggest win of his career"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The host leans toward Da Woon Jung, noting that Jung is younger, more aggressive, and has better output. He questions Sam Alvey's durability and recent form, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline at -370. He suggests Jung by knockout as a prop.

Jung by knockout, over 1.5 rounds
"i'll probably lean with jung here as a prediction uh in terms of betting yeah i'm not i'm not parlaying him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Da Woon Jung

The MMA Guru picks Da Woon Jung to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Jung is more technical and controlled than Ryan Spann (who struggled with Alvey), sets up shots with feints, and is coming off a KO win over Mike Rodriguez. He criticizes Alvey for losing too many times and being 34 years old.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with doubt on you and getting it done i reckon you'll tko sam alvey"
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 51 of 115 44% 52 of 116 2 of 7 28% 1 0 3:01
Sam Alvey 0 57 of 108 52% 103 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:01
Sam Alvey 0 17 of 25 68% 57 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ryan Spann 0 22 of 39 56% 23 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Sam Alvey 0 15 of 39 38% 17 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ryan Spann 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Sam Alvey 0 25 of 44 56% 29 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 51 of 115 44% 41 of 102 10 of 13 0 of 0 48 of 109 3 of 6 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 57 of 108 52% 40 of 90 3 of 3 14 of 15 46 of 94 11 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 9 of 27 33% 7 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 24 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 17 of 25 68% 10 of 18 2 of 2 5 of 5 13 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Ryan Spann 22 of 39 56% 18 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 15 of 39 38% 9 of 32 0 of 0 6 of 7 14 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ryan Spann 20 of 49 40% 16 of 45 4 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 25 of 44 56% 21 of 40 1 of 1 3 of 3 19 of 37 6 of 7 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Sam Alvey

Round 1
Welcome back, everyone. It’s been a rough few months, and the last 24 hours have been especially rocky, but fights are officially back on the menu. We begin this 11-fight odyssey in the light heavyweight division, as rising Fortis MMA star Spann (17-5, 3-0 UFC) takes on the effervescent Alvey (33-13, 1 NC; 10-8 UFC). An unmasked Dan Miragliotta draws the first referee assignment of the evening, and with a touch of gloves, it’s on with the show! Spann begins to walk Alvey down, and starts out with a right hand and then another thudding right before ducking into a double. Snatching up the legs, Spann drags his man down; Alvey gets back to his feet and works a few hammerfists to irritate Spann. Switching to a single, Spann drops low and hits it, and Alvey flirts with grabbing the fence while he is trying to get back up. As Alvey returns to his feet, Spann sets up a standing arm-triangle choke, allowing Alvey to pepper him with a few short right hands to the torso. Spann tightens up and tries to wrench Alvey down, but Alvey resists and he does not look to be in a good position. Alvey’s head is starting to change colors, and he looks distressed but does not seem to want to fight it off. Spann looks to rip him down to the canvas, and Alvey calmly pops his head out and punches his way free. “Superman” keeps Alvey against the fence, and Alvey scores with a right hand to back off his opponent. He lands another, and Spann backpedals for a moment, before returning to the pressure. Alvey wings a few punches, and Spann throws so hard that he stumbles across the cage before regaining his composure. An inadvertent low kick catches Spann on the cup, and the action does not slow for long. Spann makes him pay for it with a heavy right hand, and Alvey shakes it off before returning fire with a right hook. The Fortis MMA fighter again throws himself off balance with a looping punch, allowing Alvey to kick his legs and send him off-balance. Spann drops down for a single, and takes a knee on the way in. Right before the round ends, Alvey sneaks in a knee and a solid elbow up top, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
Between rounds, Spann seems concerned that is taking damage from a few of Alvey’s low calf kicks. To return some damage, Spann fires a head kick up top to start the round. It delivers a serious impact even though Alvey blocks it, but Spann uses the forward movement to go after a takedown. Alvey stands him up and they clinch and break apart, allowing Alvey to catch him with a solid left hand on the way out. Spann starts to talk to his corner as the fight progresses, and Alvey continues to pepper that lead calf with kicks that continue to get Spann’s attention. Spann’s looping punches are not catching Alvey flush, and Alvey’s counters fall short. The two swing heavy leather as they crash together, and Alvey appears to get the better of the exchange as they separate. Alvey keeps his back close to the fence, but times a stiff left hand and follows it with a right hook to nail “Superman” on the chin. Spann walks through it, and throws a heavy body kick that makes Alvey circle away. Sensing the success of that kick, Spann throws a few more, and scores a hard right while Alvey tries to defend that kick. Another low kick scores for Alvey, frustrating Spann to throw all he has into a short right hook that falls shy of the mark, and Alvey dances away. Spann tags him with an overhand left after a front kick, but Alvey is unfazed. Spann charges forward to land another few punches, ending the combination with a vicious left hook. The punches for Spann are finding their mark repeatedly, although his wildness is making him fall across the cage as Alvey avoids most of the damage. “Smile’n Sam” tries to throw a spinning wheel kick of sorts, but he is several feet away, so Spann simply stands there to admire the attempt as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Alvey

Round 3
The final frame begins with Spann walking forward into a clinch. Alvey tries to tie him up with a Thai clinch, although Spann breaks free and clips him on the way out. Another body kick scores for Spann, and Alvey is protesting something but it is unclear what he is concerned about. The action does not stop, so Spann walks forward as he continues to talk to his coaches. Coming short with a few long punches, Spann misses but Alvey does not make him pay for it. They start taking turns throwing at each other. Suddenly, Spann whips a high kick and cracks Alvey, and Alvey is rocked. They start swinging with reckless abandon, and the chin of Alvey holds up as he shakes out the cobwebs. After trading furious leather, they separate, allowing Spann to connect with a few more body kicks. Alvey lands a few solid lefts, but Spann throws back harder and more often, blasting Alvey on the jaw. Despite the powerful shots, “Smile’n” keeps going, and Spann looks to be a little tired now. The punches and kicks for Spann are much slower than before, allowing Alvey to stick and move. Alvey goes up with his own head kick, and Spann did not like that. A huge shot from Alvey hurts Spann, and Spann shoots for a desperation takedown. Alvey catches him and sets up a 10-finger guillotine choke, but Spann muscles his way back to his feet. Alvey clips Spann again, and again, with nasty left hands as Spann is in a bad way. Spann falls against the cage, and Alvey pours it on in the waning seconds. The Team Quest fighter puts everything he has left to force a stoppage, but time expires before he can get it. What a wild end to that round, and the first fight is now in the hands of the judges. Although the post-fight interview for Joe Rogan was reportedly off the table for this event, the winner of this fight still gets one from a maskless, gloveless Rogan.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Spann)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Spann)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Alvey (29-28 Alvey)

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Sam Alvey via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to dominate Sam Alvey, expecting a clear decision victory. He notes Spann's reach advantage and submission threat, but believes Alvey's chin will hold up, preventing a knockout. He mentions Spann is a minus 380 favorite and suggests using him in parlays.

Spann by decision; Spann minus 380; parlay suggestion
"I think Span's going to dominate. Um I think he is going to dominate and win this fight, but I just think Alvie's chin is going to hold up."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel Levi picks Ryan Spann, stating he has too much physically for Alvey and is the rightful favorite. He notes Spann's improvement, nasty guillotine, and physical tools (6'5", 82-inch reach). Levi thinks Alvey hasn't evolved and is deteriorating, and that Spann should capitalize on Alvey's declining chin.

"I think he's got too much for Sam in terms of the physical Department I think the line might be a little wide but I am going with Ryan span here to get a fourth win in a row"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Matt thinks the line at -380 is too wide and prefers a closer price around -250. He notes Spann's potential and crisp 1-2 but worries about his gas tank and Sam Alvey's durability and possible progression. He sees the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet and only includes Spann in a Hail Mary parlay.

under 2.5 rounds (-155), fight doesn't go to decision (-195), Hail Mary parlay piece
"I like Spanier not confident enough to make him like a main bet maybe a parlay piece like a Hail Mary parlay piece"
LOSS vs Klidson Abreu
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Klidson Abreu 0 28 of 77 36% 67 of 117 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:33
Sam Alvey 0 36 of 89 40% 61 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Klidson Abreu 0 6 of 21 28% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
Sam Alvey 0 13 of 25 52% 27 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Klidson Abreu 0 10 of 25 40% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:13
Sam Alvey 0 9 of 18 50% 17 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
3 Klidson Abreu 0 12 of 31 38% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Sam Alvey 0 14 of 46 30% 17 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Klidson Abreu 28 of 77 36% 12 of 53 5 of 12 11 of 12 21 of 69 4 of 4 3 of 4
Sam Alvey 36 of 89 40% 17 of 60 4 of 13 15 of 16 35 of 85 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Klidson Abreu 6 of 21 28% 2 of 16 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 13 of 25 52% 7 of 16 4 of 6 2 of 3 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Klidson Abreu 10 of 25 40% 4 of 18 3 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 20 1 of 1 3 of 4
Sam Alvey 9 of 18 50% 4 of 11 0 of 2 5 of 5 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Klidson Abreu 12 of 31 38% 6 of 19 2 of 8 4 of 4 10 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Alvey 14 of 46 30% 6 of 33 0 of 5 8 of 8 14 of 43 0 of 3 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jimmy Crute
TKO (punches) R1 2:49 · UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Feb 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 1 14 of 32 43% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sam Alvey 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 2 of 3 5 of 6 9 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sam Alvey 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 2 of 3 5 of 6 9 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 9
Sam Alvey 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Big Brady picks Marquez to win by decision, despite Marquez having a 100% finish rate. He thinks Marquez will pressure and outpoint Alvey, who has not won in a long time and takes a lot of damage. Brady is not confident in the pick and is passing on betting, as he finds the fight potentially boring and the line not appealing. He notes both fighters are durable and the fight likely goes to decision.

"i'm going to take marquez to win by decision which is weird because he has a 100 finish rate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

Cody picks Marquez, citing his recovery from ring rust, James Krause's coaching, and Alvey's difficult weight cut to 185. He notes Alvey's low output and lack of offensive wrestling, while Marquez has better timing and power. He expects Marquez to edge it.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100 is favorite play
"i'm hitting this over two and a half at plus one hundred"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sam Alvey

Daniel Levi picks Sam Alvey, despite acknowledging that Alvey is a long-term fade and the blueprint to beat him is well-known. He is not sold on Julian Marquez, viewing him as an opportunistic finisher who looked horrendous against Maki Pitolo. Levi thinks the fight could be an ugly middleweight scrap that could go either way, so he goes with Alvey for the first time in years.

"I'm going to actually take alvey for the first time in years"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

The host leans Alvey for the value, noting that Marquez's win over Pitolo was a sloppy fight and that Alvey has decent takedown defense and power. However, he acknowledges that Alvey fights on the back foot and hasn't won in five fights. He picks Alvey by decision, but calls the fight a 'slop fest' and advises against betting it.

"i lean alvey in terms of the value here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sam Alvey

Paul leans Alvey, noting his durability and ability to lull opponents into slow fights. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Alvey's counter-punching and experience could be factors. He is not confident due to Alvey's losing streak and weight cut.

"it would be dogger pass i would take smile and sam"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Julian Marquez

The MMA Guru picks Julian Marquez by first-round KO, despite calling Marquez 'so bad' and 'sloppy'. He notes Marquez has big power and a great chin, while Sam Alvey is moving down to middleweight after being knocked out previously. He thinks Marquez will lose some grappling exchanges early but then land a big right hand to finish Alvey. He expects Alvey to be 'frowning' after the loss.

first round knockout
"i see a first round ko for julian marquez"