vs
-250 +220
UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Joe Solecki
1.97 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
1.85 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
2.06 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
14.0% TD Def.
1.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jim Miller
2.92 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.44 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.5 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
48.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Joe Solecki
Moneyline
BetWay -250
KO/TKO
BetWay +500
Submission
BetWay +400
Decision
BetWay +130
Jim Miller
Moneyline
DraftKings +220
KO/TKO
BetWay +900
Submission
BetWay +450
Decision
BetWay +500
Joe Solecki - Fight History
LOSS vs Nurullo Aliev
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nurullo Aliev 0 35 of 88 39% 81 of 150 2 of 2 100% 0 0 8:13
Joe Solecki 0 28 of 68 41% 52 of 98 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nurullo Aliev 0 2 of 5 40% 17 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Joe Solecki 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nurullo Aliev 0 9 of 29 31% 35 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Joe Solecki 0 5 of 13 38% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Nurullo Aliev 0 24 of 54 44% 29 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Solecki 0 21 of 51 41% 30 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nurullo Aliev 35 of 88 39% 29 of 81 5 of 6 1 of 1 26 of 65 1 of 2 8 of 21
Joe Solecki 28 of 68 41% 24 of 60 1 of 4 3 of 4 26 of 65 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nurullo Aliev 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Joe Solecki 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nurullo Aliev 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 1 of 2 6 of 18
Joe Solecki 5 of 13 38% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nurullo Aliev 24 of 54 44% 18 of 47 5 of 6 1 of 1 24 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Solecki 21 of 51 41% 18 of 45 0 of 2 3 of 4 19 of 48 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Angelo picks Nurullo Aliev, citing his dominant wrestling and effective jab that sets up takedowns. He notes that Aliev's style is reminiscent of Khabib, though without the same accomplishments. Angelo acknowledges that Aliev's opponent, Yanal Ashmoz (likely Joe Solecki), is well-rounded and has been a successful underdog pick in the past, but he believes Aliev's wrestling will be too much. He expects a straightforward win via takedowns and control leading to a decision.

Aliev in a parlay (other half not specified)
"I'm going to go with narula alive hopefully no more cannibal activities with the biting I just think the wrestling's too good that jab is going to be right in his face"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Big Brady sees this as one of the easiest fights on the card. He expects Aliev to get takedowns and control the fight on the ground, while Solecki is content to be on his back and throw up submission attempts. He notes that Solecki has a history of losing minutes and being taken down, as seen in the Dawson fight. Brady predicts Aliev wins by decision, as he is not a finisher but will dominate positionally.

"it's going to be Nilla alv getting a takedown and Joe SEI laying on his back and throwing up submission attempts for 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Cody picks Aliev but with low confidence due to the two-year layoff and inflated line. He notes Solecki's submission threat and Aliev's low volume. He advises passing or using Aliev only in deep parlays, calling it a trap line.

"this sounds like a trap line it honestly looks like a trap line to me"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Daniel thinks Aliev's grinding Russian style and takedowns will be too much for Solecki, who pulls guard and has cardio concerns on short notice. He notes Solecki's Jiu-Jitsu is a threat early but will fade. He believes the -600 price is justified and picks Aliev confidently.

"I'm going Pick N alab to win that fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Aliev's wrestling-heavy approach will keep him safe against Solecki's BJJ black belt, allowing him to grind out a decision win. He hasn't fought since February 2023 due to a leg injury, but his style should neutralize Solecki's grappling.

"I think his wrestling heavy approach here will allow him to stay safe against the BJJ black Bel of Joe SEI allowing alv to grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

Paul picks Aliev but is not confident, citing the layoff and Solecki's grappling. He notes Solecki's one-dimensional style but potential to catch a submission. He prefers to pass on this fight.

"it's probably just a straight up pass for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nurullo Aliev

The Guru picks Aliev, noting Solecki took the fight on short notice and hasn't been training for a fight (only a grappling match in November). He thinks Aliev is a lot better and will out-grapple Solecki or get a TKO. He suggests there might be value on an Aliev TKO.

TKO
"I am going to have to go with nurillo aliev however um because I think he's a lot better than Joe seli"
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 46 of 70 65% 146 of 190 3 of 3 100% 0 0 13:46
Joe Solecki 0 12 of 19 63% 27 of 35 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 7 of 11 63% 34 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:42
Joe Solecki 0 2 of 2 100% 6 of 6 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:14
2 Grant Dawson 0 17 of 25 68% 51 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
Joe Solecki 0 4 of 6 66% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Grant Dawson 0 22 of 34 64% 61 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
Joe Solecki 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 46 of 70 65% 39 of 62 6 of 7 1 of 1 7 of 14 1 of 1 38 of 55
Joe Solecki 12 of 19 63% 10 of 17 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 11 1 of 3 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 10
Joe Solecki 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Grant Dawson 17 of 25 68% 15 of 22 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 19
Joe Solecki 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Grant Dawson 22 of 34 64% 18 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 1 17 of 26
Joe Solecki 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 1 of 3 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Joe Solecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-410), Solecki (+320)

Round 1
The prelims roll on with an interesting stylistic clash of grapplers in the lightweight category. Coming off his first loss since 2016, it will be interesting to see how Dawson (20-2-1, 8-1-1 UFC) rebounds—he smoked Christian Camp in his bounce-back effort after dropping his first fight. Hailing from about 90 minutes southwest of the Prudential Center, Solecki (13-4, 5-2 UFC) will be his adversary, and the crowd roars in approval of their home state fighter. Referee Jason Herzog can scarcely hear himself think, but he starts the fight anyway. Taking a page out of the playbook of Jorge Masvidal, Dawson sprints at Solecki and leaps at him with a flying knee. Solecki plays the matador to let him slide past him, and he drags Dawson down from behind and threatens with a guillotine choke. Dawson resets to break out of the submission setup and takes top position, and Solecki readjusts to lock the choke down and gets a hook around the side. Solecki briefly claims mount with the choke set, and Dawson continues to shift and move until he breaks out of the choke. Dawson keeps tight chest pressure when he resides on top, and Solecki hacks at him from off his back with elbows. Dawson postures up, and he lowers himself down to soften the body up. Solecki defends from anything of merit landing from above, and he carves Dawson open with an elbow. Dawson may hold top position, but he is not winning in practically any of the exchanges. Dawson bleeds down on Solecki and tries to open up on ground-and-pound, and he manages to get off a few elbows of his own. Dawson lands a few more hammerfists and punches, and when the horn sounds, he helps Solecki up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Solecki

Round 2
Dawson starts off the round aggressively, punching his way into closing the distance. Solecki flails back, but he gets pushed back towards the wall and is forced to defend a takedown. “KGD” easily grounds Solecki, where he lands in the guard and starts to rack up more top control time. Dawson grinds his elbow on the forehead, and as he holds Solecki down, the crowd boos his lackluster approach. Dawson winds up with a powerful elbow, slashing down at Solecki, and he sporadically works with strikes. Dawson finds an opening to land three right hands after a Solecki fails, and he smacks Solecki around from any angle he can find. Solecki is unable to offer any offense of his own, and a submission is nowhere to be found. Dawson cannot pass guard, but he keeps Solecki down and stays just active enough to stave off a Herzog standup. Dawson stands up to drop down a few standing-to-ground punches, and the momentum drives him back into the tie-up. Dawson makes life miserable for the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 3
The lightweights clap hands to open up the final round, and Solecki runs at him and shoots for a single-leg takedown. As Dawson staves it off, Solecki whips a body kick at him, but it is too low and smashes straight into Dawson’s cup. Dawson groans and drops to a knee, and Herzog calls time. Dawson does not take long before he is ready to go again, and he proceeds to drive Solecki to the wall upon restart. Solecki swings, and Dawson ducks and secures a takedown like a hot knife through butter. Dawson does not care to shift to half guard, and he ignores a guillotine setup so he can line up ground strikes. Solecki is stuck with no options, kept with his upper back pressed on the wall and trapped in a position that allows him no offense or escape. Dawson completely nullifies him, but he cannot get any further than the full guard of his foe. Solecki uses a butterfly guard to prevent Dawson from advancing beyond that posture, but he eats three elbows during one exchange. Dawson stands up in an effort to push through the guard, and he rains down punches from on high until leaps into the guard again. “KGD” answers Herzog’s call for action by elbowing and punching Solecki a few times, and the grind has been firmly embraced. Solecki kicks off and gets to his knees with seconds to go, and Dawson nearly knees him illegally in this position. The lackluster fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Joe Solecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Angelo picks Grant Dawson because he believes whoever shoots first will win, and Dawson is more willing to dive at legs immediately. He thinks the jiu-jitsu will cancel out, so wrestling will decide it. He also notes that Dawson's recent knockout loss will make him even more eager to wrestle. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds is 'rock solid'
"I think Grant Dawson wins because he's going to wrestle first because he'll get that takedown and then the Jiu-Jitsu from there is even"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Grant Dawson

Big Brady likes Grant Dawson as a GPP play, expecting him to be lower owned. He highlights Dawson's big wrestling advantage, with takedowns and control time leading to ground strikes. He thinks Dawson could get a late finish in the third round. He sees Dawson's path to victory as a ton of takedowns and control.

Grant Dawson wins by decision or late finish
"I don't mind some Dawson 9,300 I think he's going to be much much lower owned than Islam mahv"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Cody picks Dawson, criticizing Solecki's lack of improvement and one-dimensional jiu-jitsu. He notes Solecki's striking and wrestling are poor, and he has not evolved his game. Cody highlights Dawson's wins over Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen, and believes Dawson will take Solecki down and grind him out. He calls Solecki a 'Chase Hooper type' who can't get the fight to the ground.

"Solecki is still young but he's not advancing his skills... Dawson meanwhile was on a nice little run... this is a Grant Dawson type fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Daniel is not a Dawson believer, citing his poor striking and chin issues. He notes Solecki is a better striker but lacks confidence and may pull guard. He reluctantly picks Dawson but says it's dog or pass.

"I guess I'll lean Dawson"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

The host believes Dawson is better everywhere and will dominate Solecki with relentless wrestling and top control. Solecki's submission threat off his back is overrated, and his striking is rudimentary. Dawson should control the pace and position, winning a decision or possibly finding a finish. The host is confident Dawson bounces back emphatically.

"I really like Dawson in the spot... I think he's a guy that's going to go out there and have a smack performance here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Paul picks Dawson, noting the stylistic matchup favors Dawson's grappling and cardio. He believes Dawson's volume and physicality will overwhelm Solecki, who lacks striking and wrestling. Paul mentions Dawson's only recent loss was a flash KO to Bobby Green, and he expects Dawson to get back on track. He added Dawson to a parlay at -350.

"I think this is just a Grant Dawson obviously got a little bit exposed last time out but this is a very solid matchup for him... I like this fight stylistically for Grant Dawson."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, noting that Joe Solecki is coming off a bad KO loss and lacks the ability to inflict pain on the feet. He believes Dawson has better standup and grappling, and that Solecki's jiu-jitsu won't be enough. He predicts Dawson by decision, 29-28.

"I' got to go with Grant Dawson um lot of things to consider here you know about Joe S he's coming in off a KO loss"
LOSS vs Drakkar Klose
KO (slam) R1 1:41 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Drakkar Klose 0 2 of 2 100% 8 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Joe Solecki 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Drakkar Klose 0 2 of 2 100% 8 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Joe Solecki 0 1 of 1 100% 9 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Drakkar Klose 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Joe Solecki 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Drakkar Klose 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Joe Solecki 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Cody picks Solecki as an underdog. He thinks Solecki's grappling and back-taking ability will be key. He notes Klose's takedown defense issues and age (35) coming off a knee injury. He believes Solecki can win the positional battle and control the fight. He calls it a shoey bet.

"seli screams like a dog with a shot because I think he can win the positional battle he can get those takedowns close has got the knee injury the year-long layoff 35 years old take down defense issues in the …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Lucrative James picks Joe Solecki, emphasizing that Drakkar Klose consistently gives up his back in fights, which is a bad stylistic matchup against a grappler like Solecki. He believes Solecki will take Klose's back and either submit him or win rounds through control. While Klose may have an edge on the feet, Solecki's grappling upside makes him the favorite.

"it's almost guaranteed that Joe's going to take his back at one point you know which sounds crazy but he's I've just seen it way too many times"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

Klose has a solid wrestling and pressure game, and stylistically he has advantages over Solecki in striking and grappling. However, he is returning from an ACL injury at 35 years old, which raises concerns about his knee recovery. Solecki is a BJJ black belt but has shown limited offense off his back and unimpressive striking. Klose is expected to dictate the pace and win a decision, but confidence is tempered due to the injury.

decision win predicted
"give me close I think close by decision uh and I think we see him come back successfully but I would just be weary in terms of the amount of confidence that you have in him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

Paul already bet Klose at -120. He thinks Klose has significant advantages on the feet and trains with good partners. He is surprised the line is still playable. He notes Klose's only UFC losses are to Beneil Dariush and David Teymur, and he believes Klose should win.

"I like jar close here I'm kind of surprised by this line I bet it like uh three or four day or my one buddy uh Mick reached out and I kind of looked into it and then I ended …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The MMA Guru picks Drakkar Klose, noting Klose's technical striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He dismisses Joe Solecki's level of competition and believes Klose does the basics better. He expects a close decision, 29-28, in Klose's favor.

decision 29-28
"I'm going to go Drakkar Klose win... I don't think Joe Solecki is all that good... Drakkar Klose just does the basic stuff better than Joe Solecki."
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Solecki 0 2 of 8 25% 49 of 67 2 of 3 66% 3 0 8:51
Carl Deaton III 0 1 of 12 8% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Solecki 0 2 of 4 50% 14 of 18 1 of 2 50% 2 0 4:26
Carl Deaton III 0 0 of 6 0% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joe Solecki 0 0 of 4 0% 35 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:25
Carl Deaton III 0 1 of 6 16% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Solecki 2 of 8 25% 1 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
Carl Deaton III 1 of 12 8% 1 of 10 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Solecki 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0
Carl Deaton III 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joe Solecki 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carl Deaton III 1 of 6 16% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Solecki. He describes Deaton as having a striking style that is very difficult for him to pull off, with low output and awkward movement. He notes that Solecki is a good wrestler and grappler who will dominate once he gets to his positions.

"Very, very straightforward pick."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Zane picks Solecki, stating that Solecki will easily take Deaton down and choke him out. He notes that Deaton's striking is limited and awkward, and that Solecki will have an easy time getting to his positions. He also mentions that Deaton's win over Justin James is not meaningful, as James was on a losing streak.

"I just got to pick Joe's lucky to go out there and wrestle him down and choke him out."
Decision (majority) (28–28, 28–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Solecki 0 33 of 82 40% 91 of 144 1 of 4 25% 3 0 4:51
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 35 of 76 46% 54 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Solecki 0 3 of 5 60% 24 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:11
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 6 of 8 75% 17 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:32
2 Joe Solecki 0 3 of 4 75% 31 of 34 1 of 2 50% 2 0 4:40
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 1 of 3 33% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Joe Solecki 0 27 of 73 36% 36 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex da Silva Coelho 0 28 of 65 43% 30 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Solecki 33 of 82 40% 32 of 81 0 of 0 1 of 1 30 of 77 1 of 3 2 of 2
Alex da Silva Coelho 35 of 76 46% 20 of 58 11 of 12 4 of 6 29 of 67 1 of 2 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Solecki 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex da Silva Coelho 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Joe Solecki 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2
Alex da Silva Coelho 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joe Solecki 27 of 73 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 1 of 1 26 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 0
Alex da Silva Coelho 28 of 65 43% 16 of 50 9 of 10 3 of 5 25 of 60 1 of 2 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alex da Silva Coelho

Angelo calls this a very close fight. Joe Solecki is a grappler with clean boxing but lost to more technical strikers. Alex da Silva is a slick striker with power and good wrestling. Angelo notes the odds favor Solecki at -165 but thinks da Silva may have the edge in power and willingness to wrestle first. He is torn but leans da Silva, and considers a +3.5 round buy bet.

considering a plus 3.5 round buy bet on da Silva
"this pick is really hard and i think i'm leaning alex here but i might change that later in the week i'm really really torn here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alex da Silva Coelho

Big Brady picks Alex da Silva Coelho to win by decision as an underdog. He thinks da Silva is the better striker and well-rounded, but his main concern is cardio, as da Silva has faded in past fights. He is hoping da Silva has improved his gas tank during his 20-month layoff. He notes that Solecki is a BJJ black belt but da Silva has good grappling and wrestling. He believes da Silva can win the first two rounds and possibly hold on for a decision, but is not overly confident.

da Silva by decision
"I will take to silva i'm hoping and banking on him hoping hoping to make improvements here in terms of the cardio"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Cody picks Solecki, noting his BJJ black belt and wrestling. He thinks da Silva's cardio issues will be exploited and Solecki will take his back. He is confident in Solecki's grappling advantage.

"i think eventually he finds the back puts the body triangle in and just wears on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing his consistent grappling and fight IQ. He acknowledges Alex da Silva's talent but notes his cardio issues and mental lapses. He sees Solecki as the safer pick but does not see value at -170, so he will not bet it. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"pure pick solecki just because i think he's proven a little bit more and because i think he kind of know he's kind of comfortable with who he is as a fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Paul picks Solecki, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes da Silva's tendency to gas and thinks Solecki will take his back and submit him or win a decision. He likes the price and expects Solecki to find a submission in the later rounds.

Solecki by submission or decision
"i'm leaning towards selecting by decision but to be honest a selective third round submission something like that wouldn't surprise me either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, though his analysis is brief and somewhat incoherent due to illness. He states he doesn't see Alex da Silva Coelho out-grappling Solecki and references Coelho's loss to Yakovlev. He calls Solecki a 'good grappler' and implies he will win, but does not provide a specific method or round.

"i'm gonna go with joe salecki he's a [ __ ] good grapp"
LOSS vs Jared Gordon
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 0 38 of 69 55% 70 of 102 4 of 7 57% 0 0 6:03
Joe Solecki 0 51 of 86 59% 83 of 122 1 of 2 50% 0 1 4:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 0 10 of 10 100% 35 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:58
Joe Solecki 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
2 Jared Gordon 0 3 of 3 100% 7 of 8 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:05
Joe Solecki 0 16 of 16 100% 40 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:38
3 Jared Gordon 0 25 of 56 44% 28 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Joe Solecki 0 34 of 69 49% 37 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 38 of 69 55% 31 of 62 5 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 56 4 of 4 9 of 9
Joe Solecki 51 of 86 59% 32 of 60 12 of 18 7 of 8 33 of 68 15 of 15 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 10 of 10 100% 10 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 9
Joe Solecki 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jared Gordon 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Solecki 16 of 16 100% 15 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 11 of 11 3 of 3
3 Jared Gordon 25 of 56 44% 19 of 50 5 of 5 1 of 1 22 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
Joe Solecki 34 of 69 49% 17 of 45 10 of 16 7 of 8 30 of 65 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gordon vs. Joe Solecki

Round 1
Seemingly in the blink of an eye, we have reached the preliminary headliner, which comes at lightweight between ex-CFFC champ Gordon (17-4, 5-3 UFC) and fellow CFFC vet Solecki (11-2, 3-0 UFC). Someone’s win streak here will come to an end, and referee Dan Miragliotta will be the first person to find out who that will be. There is a respectful touch of gloves to start off the contest, and they are tense and ready to pull the trigger. When Gordon tries to start off the fight with a knee, Solecki quickly takes him down and assumes full mount about 30 seconds into the bout. Gordon tries to kick him off, so Solecki scoots him to the fence and starts to pound on him from above. Solecki sits in a heavy side control, and Gordon responds by walking off the wall. This is not the best strategy, as Solecki gets one hook in and then the other, fully taking the back of “Flash” in a flash. Solecki whacks Gordon on the side of the head a few times to soften him up and open the neck up for submission, and then elects to squeeze with a face crank when that is not there. As Gordon fights off the grip and kicks off the fence, Solecki smacks him upside the head a few times. Solecki wraps his arm around the chin of his opponent, and he switches arms and the forearm slides under the chin briefly. Gordon is able to fight out of it, but he is still being controlled and taking strikes as he rolls around. In these harsh scrambles, both men suffer serious mat burn on their knees and elbows, and Gordon stands up against the fence. Solecki welcomes this by jumping guard with a guillotine choke, and he drags Gordon down to the ground. “Flash” is able to slowly pull his neck free, and he thinks about paying Solecki back with some strikes before choosing to grind his forehead into his foe’s chin instead. Gordon gets off a few short elbows, and ends the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Solecki

Round 2
The gloves get touched to begin the second round, and Gordon tries to lure a firefight but Solecki grabs hold of him and grounds him 10 seconds into the frame. Gordon springs back to his feet thanks to the wall, and he defends with a guillotine choke as Solecki shoots low with a takedown. Solecki pulls the leg out and gets Gordon down again, but they both pop back up after an exchange. Solecki grinds his foe against the wall, and Gordon tries to gain some space with some snappy elbows. Gordon keeps ringing his opponent’s bell with elbows, and this keeps Solecki from getting him down. Solecki drags him from one side of the cage to the other, and he ties Gordon’s legs up to hit a trip and put “Flash” on the mat. Gordon stays active, and he turns about so that he can put Solecki’s back to the floor. Gordon stays in Solecki’s full guard as he lands a few punches from up close, and he fights off a sweep attempt to keep Solecki grounded. A strike from below cuts Gordon on the top of his head, but he pays it no mind as he works Solecki over and smothers him with top control. Miragliotta asks them to work after a stalemate, and Gordon answers his call with a single heavy elbow before getting pulled back to a tight full guard. Gordon rides this position out to the bell, putting an end to a close and grinding round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
The last round begins with a glove touch, and this time, Gordon does not succumb to a takedown immediately. Instead, Gordon walks Solecki down and lands a few punches. Solecki tries to go to the body, but Gordon sticks and moves. Solecki does step in with a body kick, but Gordon ignores it so that he can stick his jab in Solecki’s face. Gordon dodges and weaves the counter strikes as he picks and pokes at his opponent, landing a few right hands that get Solecki’s attention. Solecki eats a body kick and ducks out of the way from a couple punches that follow. Gordon sits down on a big punch, and Solecki lets rip a leg kick that makes Gordon pull his leg back quickly. Gordon again tags Solecki with an overhand right, and they bump into one another but Solecki does not try to take the fight down. In a flash, “Flash” shoots in for a takedown of his own, and Solecki stuffs it and gets back to striking range. Gordon again closes in on him to try to drag the fight down, and he trips the leg down to put Solecki on his back briefly. Solecki springs back up, and Gordon lets him get to his feet so that he can land at range. “Flash” triples up on his jab, and he strings together a combination as Solecki is fired up and wants to start trading finally. Solecki uses the strikes to come in close, and they clash heads, opening a large cut on Gordon’s temple that starts to bleed profusely. On the other side, Solecki’s eyebrow towards his nose is split open, and both fight through it without noticing. Gordon walks Solecki down and tries to land a bomb, and Solecki catches him on the way in and tags him with a left. The fight ends with a striking exchange, and it may be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Joe Solecki via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Angelo picks Joe Solecki, but with hesitation. He notes that Solecki is a very good grappler with clean boxing, while Jared Gordon is a wrestler who may be intimidated to take the fight to the ground due to Solecki's BJJ. However, Gordon has fought higher competition and has better offensive wrestling. Angelo thinks Solecki's path is via submission, but he wouldn't be shocked if Gordon wins by decision. He likes the less less monkey knife fight pick and may bet on Solecki inside the distance with decision no action.

less less monkey knife fight, considering inside the distance decision no action bet on Solecki
"joe selecci's the pick because i think jared may be intimidated with the takedowns but i would not be shocked if jared's like i don't care comes out there throw some bombs"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon to win by decision, siding with the veteran despite liking Joe Solecki's upside. He notes Gordon has never been outgrappled in the UFC and has good takedown defense and grappling himself (brown belt). Solecki is a BJJ black belt with improving striking, but his wins are over lesser competition (Jim Miller, Austin Hubbard, Matt Wyman). Brady thinks Gordon has the striking advantage and more experience, and that Solecki won't find takedowns as easy as against previous opponents. He calls it a tough fight but takes the dog.

Gordon by decision
"i'm going to side with jared gordon i'm going to take jared gordon to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon as a dog, citing his improved speed and cardio after switching to Sanford MMA. He notes that Gordon has a history of drug abuse but has reinvented himself and looked much better in his last fight. He believes Gordon's pressure, cardio, and grappling will be too much for Solecki, who struggled against Jim Miller's wrestling.

"jared gordon will be under dog number do i only got two dogs at this point regardless jared gordon is dog number two"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Daniel Levi picks Jared Gordon as an underdog, citing Gordon's heavy top pressure (described as 'Khabib-level' by training partners) and better stand-up technique. He is concerned about Solecki's guard-pulling in his last fight, which could be disastrous against Gordon's top game. Levi acknowledges Solecki's improving hands and submission threat but thinks Gordon's experience and pressure will earn him a split decision.

"give me a chair gordon for the upside here i think he's the more experienced guy you're super heavy on top"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

I have huge conviction on Gordon here. Solecki has been fed favorable matchups against wrestlers with poor jiu-jitsu defense, but Gordon is a different beast. Gordon is a better wrestler, has excellent jiu-jitsu defense, and will push a relentless pace. On the feet, Gordon has a clear edge. I bet 4 units on Gordon moneyline and like Gordon by decision at +250.

Gordon by decision +250
"I bet him big i have four units on him on the money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gordon as a dog. He notes that Gordon has a significant size advantage and better cardio. He is concerned about Gordon's chin but believes his pressure and grappling will be key. He plans to bet on Gordon after the show.

"after we get off the show i'm gonna throw some money on jared gordon because sounds like we're on the same page here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki, noting that Jared Gordon's size advantage will be negated at lightweight. He also questions Gordon's chin, as he has been KO'd multiple times. Solecki has good grappling, as shown in his win over Jim Miller. He predicts Solecki will win by unanimous decision 29-28.

"i'm going to be going with joe salecki here i think he's a good favorite to take"
WIN vs Jim Miller
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Vettori vs. Holland · Apr 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Solecki 0 11 of 34 32% 45 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:03
Jim Miller 0 19 of 42 45% 93 of 146 1 of 4 25% 0 0 9:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Solecki 0 9 of 28 32% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:03
Jim Miller 0 16 of 36 44% 17 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Joe Solecki 0 2 of 5 40% 18 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 2 of 3 66% 41 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:39
3 Joe Solecki 0 0 of 1 0% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 1 of 3 33% 35 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Solecki 11 of 34 32% 7 of 26 2 of 4 2 of 4 9 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 1
Jim Miller 19 of 42 45% 12 of 33 2 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Solecki 9 of 28 32% 6 of 22 1 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 1
Jim Miller 16 of 36 44% 10 of 29 2 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Joe Solecki 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Joe Solecki 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Joe Solecki

Round 1
A chasm of experience separates these lightweights tapped to headline the prelims, as fan-favorite Miller (32-15, 1 NC; 21-14, 1 NC UFC) sets the all-time UFC appearance record at 37 by simply stepping in the cage against fellow grappler Solecki (10-2, 2-0 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this key preliminary matchup is referee Herb Dean, and we see a respectful touch of gloves to lead things off. Miller comes out first with a reaching right hand, but it is Solecki that lands first with a quick combination and a slapping leg kick. The two engage in a brief brawl in the center of the cage, and Solecki gets off another kick. Once more there is a clinch battle with a flurry of fists and feet, and Miller takes one on the chin and gets pushed into the fence. Solecki comes up short with an overhand right, but the leg kick scores again. Miller swings wildly with a pair of hooks, and Solecki steps back and takes a sweeping leg kick. Solecki gets off a one-two, and he fires a body kick as he avoids an overhand right counter. Miller comes in with a shovel uppercut, and that and a head kick get blocked. Solecki nails Miller with a right hand, and the longtime vet eats it like a grinder. Solecki again plants his foot on Miller’s torso, and Miller’s reply hits nothing but air. Miller steps in with a leg kick, and a pair of big punches miss the mark as Solecki circles out of danger. Miller wades forward to sneak in a right hand, and when Solecki aims for a takedown, Miller pushes him over and climbs into the full guard. Solecki scoots his way to the fence while Miller is trying to find some offense from on top, and Miller instead uses this angle between the floor and the fence to keep Solecki trapped. Solecki blocks strikes and cannot kick off, as Miller begins to drop down a few punches. Miller continues to grind out his foe in this position, and he lands a few body shots while Solecki holds on tight with all his might. The round ends with Miller on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The New Jersey natives touch hands to clock in the second frame, and Miller rushes forward to throw hands. Miller catches Solecki with a left hand as he closes the distance, and Solecki drops down for a single leg as Miller defends it against the fence. As Solecki changes levels to take the fight all the way down, Miller cracks him with a knee but still falls to his back. Miller employs a rubber guard immediately, using his left leg to hook the shoulder for a brief spell. Solecki looks to pass guard but Miller does not allow him to do so, instead dragging his man back as Miller clings on tight. Solecki is unable to mount any offense from above, but Miller appears complacent on his back as he repositions his legs in his guard to open and close it searching for options. Solecki drops down a quartet of punches to the body, and Miller does not want to be flat on his back so he turns to his side. Miller hacks at his man with an elbow, but he is largely nullified by the younger man with top pressure. Miller gets off another elbow and is punched in the face for his effort, as Solecki tries to get off ground-and-pound but is mostly able to strike the side. Dean calls for Solecki to work after several minutes of stalemate, and the round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Solecki

Round 3
The last round opens with a Miller leg kick, and Solecki closes the distance to aim for a takedown and get back to the position where he rode out the previous frame. Miller frantically scrambles, and even rolls when Solecki trips his leg out, but he surrenders his back in the process. Miller somersaults to pursue a leglock, and Solecki easily spins around and winds up on top in a better position than the previous frame. Solecki sits in half guard while Miller is stuck on his side, and he holds his shoulder for a potential arm-triangle choke until bailing on it to posture up. Miller once more finds himself stuck without any ability to get up, and Solecki has firmly embraced the grind as precious seconds tick off the clock. Solecki gets warned for inactivity by Dean, and he lands a few punches to the side while Miller once more twists and turns to try to free himself. Solecki pops him with a few left hands, and he drops down a couple elbows as well to stay busy. The half guard position is a successful one for Solecki, delivering sporadic ground-and-pound and trapping Miller completely. This suffocating style is taking the fight out of the veteran, who looks frustrated as he gets punched in the face every so often. Dean once more calls for Solecki to work, and Solecki tries to mount his foe but cannot get his leg free. The younger fighter keeps working with left hands to the side of Miller’s body and face, and this dreadful fight mercifully comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Solecki (29-28 Solecki)

The Official Result
Joe Solecki def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Big Brady is very confident in Solecki, ranking him among his top picks on the card. He highlights Solecki's superior grappling, takedown accuracy (62%), and 100% takedown defense, while Miller has poor takedown defense (46%). Brady expects Solecki to take Miller down and control him on the mat, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Miller's guillotine threat but believes Solecki's black belt will keep him safe. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late submission.

"honestly probably one of my most confident picks on the on the whole card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cody passes on this fight, finding the -230 price too high for Solecki. He thinks the grappling is a wash and Miller has better striking. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.

Over 2.5 rounds -150; fight goes the distance
"it's a dogger pass type of situation i have no interest in selecting minus 230"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Joe Solecki

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing Jim Miller's age and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Solecki has improved his stand-up, as seen in the Austin Hubbard fight, and has a strong jiu-jitsu background. Levi thinks Miller's only path to victory is a first-round knockout, and if Solecki gets past that, he will take over. He also mentions that Solecki trains with John Salter and has a good mindset.

"I'm gonna go with joe solecki just by he's younger i like his mindset too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The host is a big believer in Solecki, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu, improving striking, and cardio. He thinks Solecki has the advantage everywhere, especially with Miller's poor takedown defense and tendency to slow down. He picks Solecki to win by decision or late submission, and notes that -235 is a fair price.

Solecki by decision or submission round 3
"i like slacky here i think he pretty much has him covered everywhere even if select he wants to take him down right off the bat i think he'll be good to go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul also passes, noting Solecki's poor striking and Miller's experience. He thinks the fight will be a grappling match that goes the distance. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.

Over 2.5 rounds +125; fight goes the distance
"i'm thinking over two and a half rounds minus 150 is probably my favorite play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki by third-round rear-naked choke. He considers Solecki an underrated prospect who submitted Austin Hubbard easily. He notes Jim Miller has been out-grappled recently by Vince Pichel and is aging. He thinks Solecki will wear Miller down with body work against the cage and secure a submission in the third round.

third round rear-naked choke submission
"i think a young joe saleki is going to go out there and get the submission win by rear naked choke against jim miller"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:51 · UFC on ESPN: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Aug 22, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joe Solecki 0 9 of 14 64% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 13 of 20 65% 36 of 43 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joe Solecki 0 9 of 14 64% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 13 of 20 65% 36 of 43 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joe Solecki 9 of 14 64% 2 of 5 4 of 5 3 of 4 6 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 13 of 20 65% 8 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 16 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joe Solecki 9 of 14 64% 2 of 5 4 of 5 3 of 4 6 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 13 of 20 65% 8 of 15 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 16 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Big Brady picks Joe Solecki to win by decision. He notes Hubbard has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by everyone in the UFC. Solecki has good wrestling and is slick on the ground with transitions to the back. On the feet, Hubbard has the advantage, but Brady expects Solecki to go for takedowns early and control the fight, provided his cardio holds up. He mentions Hubbard's win over Max Rohskopf is overrated because Rohskopf had only one round of gas.

"i gotta go to lucky here i think he's going to not mess around with the feet i think he's going to go for takedowns right away and as long as this gas tank holds up i think he's going …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2020 (fight day)
Joe Solecki

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki to win, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu and control on the ground. He notes that Solecki's takedowns may not be elite but he can get the fight to the mat, and Hubbard has been outgrappled before. Levi acknowledges Hubbard's improved conditioning and volume striking but believes Solecki will get takedowns early, build a lead, and survive the third round. He mentions Solecki's dominant performance against Matt Wyman as evidence.

"i'm gonna go with select you for the win i think he uh just gets more takedowns and you know probably controls him takes his back for a round and gets off to a big lead and gets the win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 20, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Solecki has great wrestling and jiu-jitsu, but his cardio and ability to finish are questionable. Hubbard has good leg kicks, cardio, and takedown defense, having survived wrestlers like Marco Madsen. Solecki should grind out a decision if he can maintain top control, but Hubbard's gas tank and striking could make it close. I'm pumping the brakes on Solecki until he proves more.

"i am going to pick him to win this fight because i do think he has a ton of potential"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard, citing his counter-grappling skills and takedown defense as seen in the Mark Madsen fight. He believes Hubbard can avoid submissions and reverse positions, eventually breaking Solecki down for a third-round TKO. He also notes Hubbard's reach advantage and that he should be the favorite.

third round tko
"i'm picking austin hubbard to win great counter grappling i think he can avoid the submissions"
Jim Miller - Fight History
WIN vs Jared Gordon
Submission R1 3:29 · UFC 328 ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-325), Miller (+260)

Round 1
It’s Jim Miller (38-19, 1 NC; 27-18, 1 NC UFC) fight day, the first one of these this year. Coming up on 43 years of age, the New Jersey native still has a ways to go to reach 50 UFC bouts. He can get to 47 tonight once the cage doors close and referee Keith Peterson says go, when he battles Gordon (21-8, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC). This lightweight clash kicks off with no nonsense and no fist bump either.
Miller stalks Gordon down slowly and cautiously, keeping his gloves up to defend a high kick. Miller leaps forward and catches Gordon with a shovel uppercut. Gordon has to take a quick count of his teeth and absorbs a knee from up close. Miller breaks off and takes a body kick. Miller throws a low kick that bangs into Gordon’s cup, and Gordon tries to take him down and abandons it to adjust his groin. Peterson calls time and gives Gordon as much time as he needs to recover. After 80 seconds, Gordon is good to go, and Miller apologizes for the accidental foul. Gordon strikes first with a high kick that harmlessly bangs into the guard, and Miller crowds him behind a pair of hooks. Miller kicks the side again and is driven back with a right hand.
Gordon jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he catches a Miller body kick to shoot for a takedown.
This reckless shot is just traveling down the road to perdition for Gordon, as Miller snatches up a guillotine choke and cinches both legs around the waist, gripping the submission with everything he has. Miller rolls Gordon to the side, squeezing with his self-describes "old man strength." Miller arches his back and has Gordon dead to rights. Gordon surrenders so he does not go out on his shield, and the victorious Miller leaps atop the cage to let loose a roar of victory.
In less than four minutes, the OG Miller has notched his 28th victory in the Octagon, extending his own record. He has now finished 20 opponents as a UFC fighter, one shy of organizational leader Charles Oliveira. In victory, Miller gives it up to his son for beating cancer, declaring that anything he does in combat pales in comparison to what his offspring went through.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon R1 3:29 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, stating his hands are better and his takedown defense should be good enough. He dismisses Gordon's last loss due to being hit by a car. He notes Gordon is a touch younger and faster. However, he thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy and will not bet on it. He acknowledges Jim Miller's home advantage and toughness.

Angelo says he is not spending on the 3-to-1 odds.
"I'm gonna pick Jared Gordon here because I do think his hands are better and I think the takedown defense should be good enough to defend some of these Jim Miller takedowns. But 3 to 1 money is crazy. I'm …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon but is not fully confident. He notes that Jim Miller is tough and experienced, and that the age difference might only be half a second faster. He thinks the fight is competitive and that Jim Miller plus 3.5 is not the worst bet. He mentions that Jim Miller has been finished in all his losses in New Jersey.

over round line lean
"I am picking Jared Gordon here. But the idea that Jim Miller can't hang on the feet seems something that you can dismiss."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, assuming he wasn't hit by a car before this fight. He notes Gordon fights at a high level and should be the minute winner everywhere. Brady expects Gordon to win by decision, though he acknowledges Jim Miller has power and a guillotine. He is rooting for Miller but thinks Gordon gets it done on the scorecards.

"I'm going to take Jared Gordon to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, citing his youth and well-rounded skills. He thinks Gordon's striking and grappling are a step ahead of Miller, who is older and less active. Cody expects Gordon to win by decision.

"I'm picking Jared Gordon. Despite the fact that I want Jim Miller to win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Connor also picks Gordon, focusing on directionality: Gordon has a clear process of pressuring and putting out volume, while Miller never has. Connor notes that Miller has no ability to be the one pressuring and will just accept the fight Gordon wants. He adds that Gordon is a little too fast and put together with his hands for Miller to take him out of his game.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300.
"I think I will because he is going to understand how to kind of tell the story of the fight to dictate in a way that Jim Miller never has been able to."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Daniel picks Gordon, predicting a 29-28 decision where Miller wins the first round but Gordon edges out the last two with top control. He respects Miller's legacy but sees Gordon's youth and grappling as decisive.

"I'm also going Gordon. I'm gonna go 2928 decision. I think Miller wins the first round. Gordon kind of edges out the last two with top control."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Jared Gordon

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Gordon is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (5.64 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to the 41-year-old Miller. Miller's takedown defense (48%) is a liability, and Gordon has solid takedown defense (60%) to keep the fight standing. Gordon's recent KO win over Thiago Moises shows his power, while Miller has been knocked out multiple times. Gordon's pace and pressure should overwhelm Miller, leading to a late stoppage or clear decision.

Gordon by KO/TKO +400
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Jacob picks Jared Gordon but is not betting on him out of respect for Jim Miller, who has been dealing with his son's cancer. He thinks Gordon should win but sees weird paths to victory for Miller. He might play Jim Miller in some capacity on Saturday.

"I got to pick Jared Gordon as a pick because I mean he should just be the better fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host picks Gordon, citing his pressure, pace, and power striking. He believes Gordon's grappling is good enough to keep Miller from grinding, and that Gordon's durability and cardio will allow him to dictate the fight. He expects a decision win, though he notes Miller's hometown crowd and power could pose a threat.

"I like Gordon here. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul picks Gordon, citing his technical striking and Miller's decline. He notes Miller's age and distractions, and thinks Gordon is simply better everywhere. Paul expects Gordon to win.

"Jared Gordon is just a kind of like one step advance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon but calls him a 'risky pick'. He notes Gordon's inconsistency but believes Jim Miller has lost his pop and recent performances have declined. He thinks Gordon should figure out the 55-year-old Miller and get a finish, though he initially says decision then corrects to finish.

by finish
"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon winning this one by decision. Um, by finish. Sorry."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Zane picks Gordon, citing his improved boxing and ability to dictate the fight with pressure and volume. He notes that Jim Miller lacks a clear process and is not a strategic thinker, while Gordon has a clear game plan. However, Zane acknowledges Miller's power and finishing ability, making Gordon vulnerable despite being the favorite.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300. Should probably be closer than that.
"I am going to take Jared Gordon."
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 13 of 35 37% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 21 of 44 47% 59 of 94 8 of 14 57% 1 0 10:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 16 62% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 10 of 21 47% 24 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:57
2 Jim Miller 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 11 45% 10 of 19 5 of 8 62% 0 0 4:04
3 Jim Miller 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 6 of 12 50% 25 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 13 of 35 37% 11 of 30 1 of 2 1 of 3 7 of 28 1 of 2 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 21 of 44 47% 13 of 34 7 of 9 1 of 1 18 of 41 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 16 62% 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 10 of 21 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jim Miller 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chase Hooper vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-800), Miller (+550)

Round 1
While it is understandable, it is still unfortunate that announcer Bruce Buffer declined to shout out Miller’s (38-18, 1 NC; 27-17, 1 NC UFC) preferred nickname that was certainly not “A-10.” We get what we get, so “Expletive Deleted” will have to hold serve for now. The grizzled veteran, one whose name is all over the leaderboards including the most fights (soon to be 46) and the most victories (27 for now), will throw down with a man 16 years his junior. In a contest of old man strength vs. youthful exuberance, Hooper (15-3-1, 7-3 UFC) will represent the latter and will close as an astronomical betting favorite north of -800. Things like 41 and -800 are just numbers to Miller, who will meet Hooper in the center of the cage while referee Kerry Hatley watches on. They do not touch gloves. When Miller plods forward, Hooper backs away and uses his kicks to keep his preferred distance. Hooper suddenly attacks with a swarm of punches, and Miller sits in the pocket and fires back at him. Hooper gets the better of an exchange, and he slides back and clips Miller with a solid right hand. Miller is unfazed and cracks his foe with a left hook, and Hooper punches and shoots low for a single. Miller drops to a knee to defend it, and he wraps up a guillotine choke that forces Hooper to stand. Hooper drops to the floor to roll out of it, and Miller lowers himself down and blasts the youngster in the face with a standing-to-ground left hand. Hooper hunts for a triangle choke, and Miller punches his way out of it and reassumes top position in the guard. “A-10” stacks Hooper up to prevent Hooper from going after anything, and Miller latches on with a guillotine and jumps guard to secure it. Hooper calmly works his neck out of harm’s way, and he finds himself in top. Miller turns over and gives up his back, and Hooper is quick to start hunting for a standing rear-naked choke. Miller leans against the cage to take some of the weight off, and he tries to scrape “The Dream” off of him using the chain links. Hooper has the body triangle wrapped around the waist to remain on Miller’s back, and he hacks at Miller with an elbow. Hooper attempts a neck crank, and Miller bucks and twists to get Hooper off of his back. Hooper hits his back and instantly attacks an armbar, and Miller punches his way out of that and a subsequent triangle setup. Miller nails his man with a big left hand, and he pushes out of a quick triangle that materializes out of nowhere. Miller stands up, and Hooper follows him and pushes out a front kick. One more front kick from Hooper results in him getting caught with an overhand right, and the horn sounds to end the dramatic round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 2
Miller starts out the round ready to get in the pocket and exchange, and he scores a solid left hand to back Hooper off. When Hooper presses him, Miller tags him with another left. The youngster chains a front kick into a spinning back fist, and Miller defends against them and allows Hooper to take him down so he can grip hold of a two-on-one wrist lock. Hooper elbows him in the side while Miller clings to the limb, using it to work back to his feet. Hooper takes his back standing and wrenches him to the ground, where he flirts with a rear-naked choke to further control his foe. Miller works his way back to his feet and leans himself on the wire, and Hooper softens him up and is pulled off of Miller’s back, but he sells out for a takedown and lands in side control. After Hooper gets off some strikes, Miller fights to his feet, and he considers a guillotine when Hooper pursues a mat return. Miller lets it go and stands up, and Hooper kicks off the fencing and tosses Miller to his back. Hooper controls Miller from the side and then back, and the two scramble and roll to find themselves in an awkward situation. Hoop looks to lace Miller’s legs and spread them apart for a banana split, and he tugs on Miller’s foot to further hold on tight. Miller survives this and makes it to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 3
Hooper wants to take the fight down to begin the final round, with Miller wearing it after 10 minutes of combat. The control of Hooper starts to take over, as he latches on the elder statesman’s back and wrangles him to the floor. Hooper again pursues a leglock from a strange angle, and Miller’s knee is trapped in a precarious predicament. They remain stuck in a 50-50 of sorts, with a possible twister or other unorthodox submission coming together. Miller on his back, has his legs caught between Hooper’s, and his torso is about to turn the wrong direction until Hooper decides to abandon it and take top position. Hooper clings to the top position like Saran wrap, nullifying Miller and causing the audience to start booing. Hooper resides in half guard, smothering and hanging tight until posturing up with a few elbows to the side. Hooper sits up with seconds to go, and the fight that started with a roar ends with a whimper.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (29-28 Hooper)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)

The Official Result
Chase Hooper def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Chase Hooper

Daniel Levi notes that Chase Hooper handled a legend, securing eight takedowns and doing what he was supposed to do. He suggests moving Hooper up and even proposes a fight against Michael Chandler. He respects Jim Miller as a legend but acknowledges the loss.

"Chase Hooper went out there, handled a legend, you know, eight takedowns. Uh he didn't he didn't get to sub him, but you know, he went out there, did what he was supposed to do."
WIN vs Damon Jackson
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:44 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)

Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.

Angelo bet half a unit on Damon Jackson at -150.
"I threw a half a unit on Damon Jackson at minus5"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.

"I'll take Jim Miller to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.

"I'm actually gonna take Damon Jackson for this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.

"I do not... I don't know. Damon jackson's game is it's just much more chancey than miller's. Yes. It's always been a thing like, you know, Jackson wins all the time. And so it's easy to we but i've talked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.

decision
"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson via decision here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.

Jim Miller wins by decision (+400)
"Jim Miller I like... better number too slightly plus 145"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Damon Jackson

The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'd give Miller the slight advantage in the Striking I do think it will be dictated in the grappling real and that's where Jackson should be able to utilize this SI and strength a little bit more effectively getting those …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.

"I won't be fading Jim Miller but I will be picking his opponent Damon Jackson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.

decision win
"Damon Jackson's GNA half guard Camp Jim Miller it's going to happen... I can so see him getting taken down and held down by Damon Jackson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.

Odds: Miller opened -145, now +154; Jackson opened +114, now -174. Zane says 'you don't want damon jackson any wider than that over anyone'.
"I'm kind of tempted to pick jim miller here. It is his home division. I think he might feel kind of stronger than damon jackson's uh issues, too."
LOSS vs King Green
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–25, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 1 186 of 319 58% 187 of 320 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 57 of 144 39% 58 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 61 of 115 53% 61 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 King Green 1 82 of 121 67% 83 of 122 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 186 of 319 58% 136 of 245 40 of 56 10 of 18 167 of 295 7 of 8 12 of 16
Jim Miller 57 of 144 39% 29 of 103 10 of 18 18 of 23 55 of 141 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 43 of 83 51% 26 of 57 12 of 19 5 of 7 43 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 17 of 46 36% 9 of 35 2 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 King Green 61 of 115 53% 45 of 88 13 of 19 3 of 8 60 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 20 of 53 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 8 of 10 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 King Green 82 of 121 67% 65 of 100 15 of 18 2 of 3 64 of 99 6 of 6 12 of 16
Jim Miller 20 of 45 44% 11 of 31 5 of 8 4 of 6 18 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.

Odds comment: -200 is absurd for this fight
"I am going to lean Bobby green very very slightly minus 200 is absolutely absurd for this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.

"On paper Bobby green has a style to defeat him so the pick is Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I got to take green to just be able to have a competitive interesting fight, maybe eat a couple of shots that he lunges in and Miller is sitting and waiting on a counter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.

"I'm gonna pick Bobby Green to get it done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.

"Jim Miller versus Bobby Green that's just a feel-good fight Jim Miller for UFC 100 UFC 200 and UFC 300 well is going to fight UFC 300 so I'm excited for that fight as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I think for the most part green will roll with them well enough to take the brunt of it off and then really start to put it on Jim Miller through rounds two and three winning this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.

"I like Bobby green too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.

"Jim Miller is going to destroy the lead leg of Bobby green he's going to hack it to Pieces."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am going to pick Bobby Green because I think Jim Miller is so meat and potato potatoes that he is going to have all the success he's ever going to have in the fight in like the first six …"
Submission (face crank) R3 3:25 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 80 of 140 57% 96 of 157 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:55
Gabriel Benítez 0 80 of 182 43% 84 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 32 of 64 50% 33 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Gabriel Benítez 0 32 of 77 41% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Jim Miller 0 28 of 38 73% 42 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Gabriel Benítez 0 22 of 48 45% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jim Miller 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:46
Gabriel Benítez 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 80 of 140 57% 50 of 108 10 of 12 20 of 20 67 of 125 5 of 7 8 of 8
Gabriel Benítez 80 of 182 43% 51 of 145 13 of 21 16 of 16 79 of 181 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 32 of 64 50% 17 of 47 5 of 7 10 of 10 30 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Gabriel Benítez 32 of 77 41% 18 of 56 7 of 14 7 of 7 31 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 28 of 38 73% 19 of 29 4 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 28 3 of 3 7 of 7
Gabriel Benítez 22 of 48 45% 17 of 42 2 of 3 3 of 3 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jim Miller 20 of 38 52% 14 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 5 19 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gabriel Benítez 26 of 57 45% 16 of 47 4 of 4 6 of 6 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Miller (-120), Benitez (+100)

Round 1
It’s Miller (36-17, 1 NC; 25-16, 1 NC UFC) time. The storied veteran takes on Benitez (23-10, 7-6 UFC) and already has his next date on the calendar circled: April 13. Before then, he has to get past the fiery “Moggly,” who should not just serve as a heavy bag. The co-main event will be covered by referee Dan Miragliotta. The lightweights have all the respect in the world for one another, they touch ‘em up before engaging, and there’s a bad moon on the rise. Miller parries a jab and takes a one-two on the chin, and he walks Benitez down. Benitez tries to back him off with a front kick, and he scores a low kick. Miller gives him one back immediately, and he scores three punches up top and a left to the body. Miller scores a low kick, and he aims a right to the body. Miller walks his foe down and unloads with punches, and Benitez is marked up already and defends with a knee. They trade leg kicks, with Miller throwing harder. Miller chops down the lead leg of his opponent, and Benitez drives a one-two down the pipe. Benitez gets off another one-two, and Miller pushes a front kick out of the way to make Benitez slip. Benitez jumps back up, and he swings heavy punches including a left hand that marks up Miller’s right eye. They connect with right hands at the same time, and Miller blitzes forward to back Benitez off. Miller blasts the body with two loud knees, and Benitez escapes on the outside and gets back to striking range. Miller follows him and swings, and he gets clipped with a left hand. Benitez scores a low kick, Miller fires it back and walks through a jab. Miller plods ahead with punches and an inside leg kick, and he gets one off on the other side. Benitez sticks out a few jabs, and Miller crowds him but does not land flush in an exchange. Miller keeps coming forward, getting off a left hand and a knee up the middle. Benitez ties him up, and Miller aims a body shot before the two split up. Benitez goes to the body, and Miller goes up top. Benitez flicks out a few jabs and gets backed off with a hefty low kick, and he reaches Miller with a long left. Miller loads up on a high kick, and Benitez springs into action with several punches and a body kick. Benitez tags his foe with a left hand, and Miller blinks it out and keeps his guard up to defend another one-two that soars at him at high speed. Miller leaps ahead with a right hook, and he gets met on the way in with a left hand and a low kick. Benitez gets off several jabs and a left hook follows the fourth, and Miller is on him with his own combination to end the spirited round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights touch ‘em up to get started, and fists meet faces shortly thereafter. Benitez wades through a few punches and then backs off, but Miller is right on him and nails him with two leg kicks. Benitez connects with a clean left hand to shake Miller up, and he eats a few punches as Miller is right on him. Miller blasts him with a left hand, lands another, drives up a knee and pounds Benitez with another short left. Miller slashes out an elbow, and Benitez is no worse for wear as he backs away. Miller keeps the high pace and whips down low kicks that have welted up the Mexican’s legs. Benitez looks to get his jab going frequently, and the low kicks from Miller make Benitez lift his leg up preemptively to block them. They land powerful punches, and Miller strides forward confidently to nail Benitez with an elbow. Miller changes things up and hits an easy takedown, and Benitez turns to one side in an effort to set up an armbar. Miller sees it coming and shuts it down, and he stacks Benitez up and works the body. Miller continues to strike, and Benitez moves his legs up to set up a high guard to for a potential submission setup. Miller breaks out of it by connecting with two nasty elbows, and Benitez rolls frantically to grab hold of Miller’s arm and lock down an armbar. Miller moves the proper way through it and gets out of danger, and he again holds himself on top of Benitez and hammers him with standing-to-ground punches. As Benitez turns after absorbing a particularly heavy blow, Miller takes his back and secures a body triangle. Benitez hand-fights to prevent any rear-naked choke, and Miller uses one left to break the wrist lock so that he can isolate Benitez’ neck. Benitez survives to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 3
The fighters clap hands together as the last round opens, and they are just as willing to slug it out as ever. They stand in the center of the Octagon and trade leather briefly, and Miller targets the busted lead leg of his foe with a kick. Benitez stands firm and throws punches, and he comes up short with a high kick. Miller punches high and kicks low in response, as his corner cheers the kick as if he were in a muay thai contest. Miller sneaks two left hands around the guard, and Benitez is tough as nails but his nose starts leaking. Miller lands a heavy leg kick, and when Benitez backs him off with a few punches, Miller comes back firing with a kick he turns his hip towards. Benitez walks forward to throw hard, and Miller’s eyes begin to close from swelling. Benitez continues to pepper him with punches and kicks, and Miller staggers him with a straight right hand. Miller wades forward without a care in the world, and Benitez’s volume is starting to frustrate his opponent. Miller connects with another vicious low kick, and he shoots for a double that lands him in half guard easily. Benitez looks to scramble, and he gives his back up.
Miller gets the body lock he was looking for, and he immediately starts pursuing the choke. Benitez turns to his side, but Miller has him locked down and fishing for rear-naked choke grip. Miller cranks down with his forearm on Benitez’ jaw, and he does not even bother to slide it under the chin before he starts squeezing. Knowing that he has no way out, Benitez surrenders to the face crank, and Miller has done it.
He adds to his record with the most victories in UFC history, and hardcore fans around the world are elated at the grizzled veteran getting it done by stoppage once more. Pleasing the crowd and commentator Michael Bisping, Miller proudly declares that he has his sights set on UFC 300 in April, with three names in mind: Paul Felder, Matt Brown and Brock Lesnar.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Gabriel Benitez R3 3:25 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller but with low confidence due to his age (40). He notes Miller's late-career power and toughness, but acknowledges Gabriel Benítez is a dangerous striker with power. He thinks Miller's wrestling and grit could get the win, but won't bet on a 40-year-old.

"Jim Miller is going to be the pick I do think he wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady likes Jim Miller's recent form, noting he's been active and knocking people out. He questions Benítez's durability and inactivity, as Benítez has been knocked out multiple times and hasn't fought in over a year. Brady predicts Miller will knock out Benítez in the first round, possibly via a club-and-sub.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say Jim Miller knocks this guy out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Cody picks Benítez, citing his solid takedown defense from training with elite wrestlers, his volume striking, and leg kicks that can immobilize Miller. He notes Miller's lack of volume and takedown attempts in recent fights, and believes Benítez can sprawl and keep the fight standing to win by volume.

"I'll take Gabriel bonitz"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Daniel Vreeland leans with Gabriel Benítez, citing his youth and durability. He expects a competitive first round, but if it goes past that, Benítez's kicks and knees will wear down Jim Miller. Vreeland acknowledges Miller's finishing ability but thinks Benítez's chin issues are mitigated by the fact that only heavy hitters have knocked him out.

"I'm gonna lean with the younger Mowgli Bonitz here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript. He only covers fights from the card he mentions, and Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benítez is not mentioned.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Gabriel Benítez is a technical striker with a strong kicking game, especially to the body, and trains at AKA. He has a significant layoff but looked impressive in his last win over Charlie Ontiveros. Jim Miller is 40 years old and tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish. Benítez's technical striking advantage should allow him to outwork Miller from distance and potentially hurt him to the body. I expect Benítez to win by decision, but I'm cautious about the layoff and Miller's power. I'd wait for better odds on Benítez, ideally plus 140 or higher.

"I'm going to lean bonitz ever so slightly by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Paul leans towards Benítez as the number climbs, noting that Jim Miller's recent wins are against low-level competition and that Benítez has a speed advantage and kicks very hard. He mentions that if the line moves to +150, he would take a shot on Benítez, but he's not heavily invested.

over 1.5 rounds -140
"I'm going to ever so SL lean towards Gabriel Mowgli Benitez as this number climbs"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, admitting bias but citing Miller's consistency and activity. He notes Gabriel Benítez has been inactive for nearly two years and lost to David Onama. He believes Miller still has fast-twitch muscle and finishing ability, predicting a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in the first round
"I'm going to go with Jim Miller getting this one done by TKO finish in the first round"
WIN vs Jesse Butler
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jesse Butler vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A

Round 1
The widest gap in UFC experience will take place in this ultra-late notice lightweight fight. With the most fights (and wins) in company history, Miller (35-17, 1 NC; 24-16, 1 NC UFC) gladly accepted anyone they threw at him, after losing opponents Ludovit Klein and Jared Gordon. Taking the call this week, Butler (12-4, 0-0 UFC) will be making his UFC debut on the heels of five straight wins, including three in the growing Fury FC organization. In comparison, Miller had already competed 20 times in the UFC by the time Butler made his professional debut. This pairing that may not end in the hands of the judges will be officiated by referee Dan Miragliotta, and the fighters are glad to be competing and display this with a glove touch. Butler leads off with a left hand, and he loads up on a right hand and a body kick. Miller avoids all three, but he walks into a big pair of punches as the newcomer is ready for him. “A-10” flies into action with a right hand and a left, and the second stings his foe.
Miller corks back a bomb of a left hand and detonates it on the chin of the debutant, and Butler collapses like a bird that’s just had its wings clipped. Just to punctuate his performance, Miller clobbers the unconscious fighter with a devastating uppercut before Miragliotta can get between them.
Butler is all the way out, and takes some time to regain his senses from the vicious destruction. Miller declares in his post-fight interview that he has few things left he wants to accomplish in the sport, other than landing a kimura on an opponent, fighting at UFC 300 and facing someone he is “a fan” of in the cage. If Miller keeps fighting like that, it will be up to him when he wants to hang it up, as he very likely earned the fastest finish of his illustrious career while extending his record for the most wins in organizational history (25).

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jesse Butler R1 0:23 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Angelo picks Gordon, noting he looked sharp against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He thinks Gordon's wrestling and volume striking will be too much for an aging Miller. He is concerned about Gordon being knocked out recently but believes Miller has slowed down. He is not betting this fight.

"I think Jared Gordon is is much better striker in this fight and uh I'm pretty confident in him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Jared Gordon very reluctantly. He acknowledges Miller's power and submission threat early, but thinks Gordon will work him over slowly if it goes 15 minutes. Cody notes Gordon's wrestling and striking volume should be enough to outpoint Miller. He admits Miller could knock Gordon out, but he's sticking with Gordon as the right pick despite the risk.

"I'm looking to get the right pick and I think the right pick is Jared Gordon so very reluctantly again I I will stick with them"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller, hedging against Gordon's recent knockout loss. He admits that in a vacuum he would pick Gordon, but is too worried about Gordon's durability after being knocked out cold by Bobby Green a month ago. Connor notes that Miller still has sharp counter-punching and can finish anyone, and that Gordon's new patient style might play into Miller's hands.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss and short notice replacement.
"I'm going to take Jim Miller. I'm going to hedge against Gordon here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Daniel picks Jared Gordon, expecting him to outwork Jim Miller in the later rounds. He notes that Miller is a potent finisher early, but Gordon's volume and cardio should take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges the recent KO loss for Gordon but doesn't put much stock in it, and sees a 29-28 decision either way.

"I'm on Gordon so we finally have our first opposite side"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Jacob picks Gordon, citing his performance against Bobby Green where he landed clean combinations. He thinks Gordon can point-fight and avoid Miller's power. Jacob notes Miller has power but is flat-footed and hittable. He is confident Gordon wins by outworking Miller.

"I believe Jared Gordon can kind of avoid those power shots like he did against Paddy kind of in out Point fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Gordon puts high volume and pressure, mixing striking, clinching, and grappling. Miller fades in later rounds and relies on early success. Gordon will tie him up, maintain pace, and win a decision. The five-week layoff from the no-contest is not a major concern.

"I like Gordon to just go out there and do work do what he did to Leonardo Santos in terms of just putting forward pressure on and just putting output and volume that Jim Miller may not be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller as the value side at +155. He notes Miller has one-punch power and a chin that could catch Gordon, who has been knocked out before. Paul mentions Gordon's recent no-contest due to a headbutt and his history of getting knocked out. He thinks Miller could finish early, but if it goes the distance, Gordon might outwork him. Paul is reluctant but sees value in the underdog.

Jim Miller by knockout prop
"I think plus 155 is the value side 100 what do you think so I'm going to agree with you I think it's the value side I think Jay Miller could absolutely win this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jesse Butler

The MMA Guru picks Jesse Butler (referred to as Jared Gordon, but the fight is Jim Miller vs Jesse Butler; likely a mistake in the transcript, but the pick is for Butler). He notes that Butler was looking good before being KO'd by Bobby Green (which was a headbutt). He believes Butler is simply a better fighter than Jim Miller, who he thinks has lost a step, as seen in his loss to Alexander Hernandez. He predicts Butler by decision, 30-27 or 29-28.

Butler by decision
"I'm going with Jared Gordon although Jared Gordon just got ko'd and it really does worry me... I do still think he's just a better fighter simply a better fighter than Jim Miller"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Zane picks Gordon in a vacuum, believing Gordon's improved boxing and pressure will be too much for the aging Miller. He notes that Miller's striking falls apart when he is forced to consistently go forward or backward, and Gordon's style can exploit that. However, Zane expresses concern about Gordon's recent knockout loss to Bobby Green just a month ago, which could affect his durability.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss (April 22nd) and short turnaround.
"I would pick him in a vacuum based on the styles and the age of Jim Miller."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 67 of 185 36% 68 of 186 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:40
Jim Miller 0 108 of 234 46% 111 of 238 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 24 of 70 34% 24 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 32 of 66 48% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 16 of 50 32% 17 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jim Miller 0 34 of 74 45% 34 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:39
Jim Miller 0 42 of 94 44% 45 of 98 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 67 of 185 36% 32 of 137 16 of 25 19 of 23 64 of 182 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 108 of 234 46% 62 of 169 39 of 50 7 of 15 98 of 223 3 of 3 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 24 of 70 34% 12 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 7 24 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 32 of 66 48% 14 of 43 12 of 15 6 of 8 31 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 16 of 50 32% 9 of 39 3 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 34 of 74 45% 21 of 55 12 of 16 1 of 3 34 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 27 of 65 41% 11 of 45 5 of 8 11 of 12 24 of 62 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 42 of 94 44% 27 of 71 15 of 19 0 of 4 33 of 84 2 of 2 7 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-230), Miller (+195)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with what should be an action-packed 155-pound tilt for as long as it lasts. On a hot streak with three finishes in a row, Miller (35-16, 1 NC; 24-15, 1 NC UFC) is determined to rattle off several more wins and potentially call it quits at UFC 300 next year. Standing in his way is late replacement Hernandez (13-6, 5-5 UFC), who returns to his weight class after an ill-fated trip to featherweight two months ago. Referee Herb Dean watches on as the two men decide not to touch gloves. Instead, Hernandez moves to the center of the cage and looses a head kick, and Miller takes it and fires back with a left hand down the pipe. Miller kicks the lead leg, counters a jab with a left hand and absorbs a calf kick coming back his way. Miller darts forward with a one-two, and Hernandez pushes off to slide a finger in Miller’s right eye. Miller does not acknowledge it, and Dean calls it for him and lets him recover anyway. Miller is good to go after about 15 seconds, and he reintroduces himself with a gnarly leg kick that makes Hernandez pick it up and lift it far back. Miller rushes forward with a few punches, and he rips a head kick that collides with the dome of his foe. Miller rings his bell a few more times with punches, and Hernandez separates and gathers his thoughts. The veteran keeps working on the lead leg, and Hernandez responds in kind. Hernandez catches Miller coming forward with one to the low calf, and Miller stumbles and blitzes with a four-punch salvo that drives Hernandez to the wall. Hernandez keeps his wits about him, circles away and pushes out a front kick that connects with the jaw. They fire off head kicks at the same time, and Miller knocks his foe back with a right hand. Hernandez gets off two punches before Miller can catch him, and he kicks Miller on the way back. A Hernandez jab leads to Miller racing forward with a one-two, and Hernandez slides out of harm’s way and plants the ball of his foot on the chest. Miller swings wildly with hooks, and Hernandez evades them all and continues feeding Miller a steady diet of kicks. Miller snaps the head back with a left hand, and he gives chase as Hernandez backpedals. Miller plods straight forward, throwing haymakers, while Hernandez strafes away. Miller swings a high kick that is barely blocked in time, and Hernandez works the lead leg in response. As Hernandez comes in throwing a punch, Miller attempts to kick the body, but it comes up short and clacks off the cup. Hernandez needs about 20 seconds to gather his wind, and they get back to exchanging. The round ends as Miller’s nose starts to bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights meet in the middle, and the first strike lands in the form of a Miller kick to the thigh. Hernandez backs off to crack Miller with a short left hook, and he scores a high kick that is barely blocked. Miller runs straight forward to attack, and Hernandez snipes him with a left hook again before stopping the takedown. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, and he jabs to the same spot and retreats. Miller gets stung with a right hand over the top, and Miller bounces off the fence and throws back with a vengeance. Miller takes a body kick and a right hand, and Hernandez is starting to bust Miller’s face up and cause some serious swelling. Miller scores a solid left hand but it is one-and-done before Hernandez can move away and counter. Hernandez ignores a low kick to split the guard with a straight right hand, and he rips a standing elbow right on the forehead. Miller goes up high with a kick, and it is easily blocked. Miller scores at the end of a two-punch salvo, but not before absorbing a kick to the ribs. Miller takes one on the chin and fires back, but Hernandez appears the faster fighter and the more elusive of the two. Hernandez splits the guard with a few strikes, beating Miller to the punch and slowing him down. “The Great Ape” blasts the midsection with a knee, and he jabs a few more times before having to block a head kick. Hernandez steps in to elbow and then knee Miller, and Miller can only take them without being able to land back with much. Miller stings his foe with a left hand, and he rushes after him with a few blows but is stunned from an elbow. Hernandez looks for elbows as he backs Miller up to the wall, and Miller wings a right hand that Hernandez practically ignores. Miller backs Hernandez up with a few more strikes, and he blocks a knee up the middle with kicks the liver. Hernandez digs a kick to the body and comfortably lands a jab as he backs off, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
Fists fly immediately to start off the last round, and Miller pushes the pace and knocks Hernandez back a few times. Hernandez strikes back, ripping opening a cut under Miller’s eye. Miller replies with a sweeping low kick, and he kicks the same spot when Hernandez recovers. Miller fights through a few jabs to charge with a barrage of punches, and he rocks Hernandez with a left hand over the top. Hernandez ties him up against the wall, and Miller knees the body and defends against a single-leg takedown. Hernandez goes low, and Miller grabs his neck with a guillotine choke. Hernandez stands up, backs off an elbow Miller on the dome. Miller lands a powerful low kick as he eats a right hand, and he fires a kick to the opposite leg as Hernandez’ balance is shaken up from these kicks. Miller takes a few right hands cleanly and a knee on the belly, but he keeps pushing forward throwing bombs. Miller checks a body kick and cracks Hernandez with a left hand, and Hernandez shakes it off and starts to get his jab going. Miller leads the dance with a few haymakers, and Hernandez is light on his feet with quick, straight punches. Miller blocks kicks on both sides, and he takes a one-two and whiffs on a huge left hand. Hernandez pushes forward and bullies the veteran to the wall, but Miller grits his teeth and throws bombs. Hernandez blocks a kick and sticks out a jab, and he is met with a step-in vertical elbow. Miller reaches with a right hand, and he walks face-first into an elbow. Miller lands, Hernandez responds, and Miller lashes out again. Hernandez plants the ball of his foot on Miller’s chin, but Miller does not flinch. Hernandez gets Miller’s attention in an exchange, and Miller shakes him up. Hernandez throws hands, and Miller kicks low and sweeps Hernandez to the mat. Miller works his way to take the back, and he locks down a rear-naked choke that is tight but on the chin. Miller squeezes with everything he has left, and Hernandez grits it out and survives it to turn Miller around and stand up. “The Great Ape” rains down punches right to the bitter end, and this absolute thriller is now left in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Hernandez but won't bet on him due to lack of trust. He acknowledges Hernandez's talent, speed, power, and wrestling, but notes his inconsistency and 'brain fart' moments. Angelo thinks Jim Miller will finally look old and slow, and Hernandez should win by being faster and stronger. However, he admits he'll be rooting for Miller and keeps his money in his pocket.

"Hernandez is going to be the pick but absolutely under no circumstances am I spending money on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady likes Hernandez to wrestle and grind out a decision, similar to his win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He notes that Miller has been controlled by wrestlers like Joe Solecki and Vince Pichel. He worries about Hernandez's cardio but thinks the path to victory is clear. He also mentions both have knockout power early, but expects a decision.

Hernandez by decision
"I'm still going Hernandez I'm taking Hernandez to kind of grind this one out win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez based on tape and skill, calling him a better athlete who moves better and hits harder. He notes Hernandez is confidence-driven and coming in on short notice, which might help him avoid overthinking. He says Jim Miller is a better fighter but at 39 with Lyme disease, the train will fall off eventually. He acknowledges Hernandez's cardio issues and tendency to fall apart if he doesn't finish early, but thinks the short notice and no weight cut to 145 will benefit him.

Cody says the line is no good and Hernandez is massively untrustworthy. He mentions Miller is always the dog and has been live in similar spots. He says he can't bet Miller but picks Hernandez.
"I just gotta go based on tape and skill and I would say Hernandez is just a better athlete he moves better he hits harder he is a better athletic fighter Jim Miller is a better fighter fighter but you …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller as well, emphasizing that Hernandez's problems are mental and technical, not size-related. Miller is tough, crafty, and a harder hitter than Hernandez's recent opponents. Connor expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, and Miller to take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Jim Miller as well. I'm I feel very confident. He will lose the first round of this fight... But I can't trust Hernandez not to find a way out of this fight if Miller can just hang tough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Jacob is picking Jim Miller, calling it a matchup nightmare for Hernandez. He believes Hernandez looks great early but fades when pressured, and Miller's experience and toughness will take over. Jacob notes Miller's recent wins show power and submissions, and he thinks Hernandez's weight class changes indicate desperation. He expects Miller to outwork Hernandez and possibly finish him.

"I'm taking the experience here in Jim Miller I think he outworks this kid."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez has physical advantages in speed, power, and explosiveness, which should allow him to dictate the fight early. He can grind Miller against the cage or land a quick knockout. However, Miller's durability and cardio could become factors if Hernandez fades. Low confidence pick via decision.

Hernandez wins by decision
"I lean Hernandez... I'm gonna ultimately with very low confidence say that he wins this by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller but is hesitant, acknowledging Hernandez could land a big bomb early. He notes Miller's last three wins are all second-round finishes and that Hernandez tends to fall apart if he doesn't finish early. He says Miller is very live here and is the best underdog on the card. However, he won't bet the moneyline because he thinks the fight has to play out a certain way for Miller to win. He prefers a sprinkle on Miller round two and live betting.

Paul sprinkles Jim Miller round two. He says he's more interested in live betting if Miller survives round one. He mentions Miller was favored against Mata and Eric Gonzalez.
"I'm gonna sprinkle the round two prop for Jim Miller and uh and be more interested in entering uh from a live market perspective because if he's living after round one it is it's Miller time."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, noting that Alexander Hernandez has only one round of fight in him and is taking this fight on short notice after a recent loss where he took heavy damage. He believes Miller's veteran experience and toughness will allow him to survive Hernandez's early onslaught and then take over, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in the second or third round
"I want to take Jim Miller here I'm gonna take Jim Miller they've made him an underdog against Alexander Hernandez who always has one round of fight in him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller because Hernandez has fundamental issues with range and defense, and he overreacts to counter strikes. Miller is a good counter puncher and will find openings. Hernandez may win the first round, but if Miller survives, he can take over. Zane notes that Hernandez's confidence is fragile after moving back to lightweight.

Miller opened +210, now +191; Hernandez opened -250, now -241. Zane says he's surprised Miller is such an underdog and thinks even odds would be more accurate.
"I'll take Jim. Yeah, I'm gonna roll with it, too. I just her name did like it, you know, I said with the Jordan Wright situation. It's just like you see somebody in this kind of career limbo."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:32 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 24 of 36 66% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 21 of 33 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 26 65% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
2 Jim Miller 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 24 of 36 66% 16 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 21 of 33 63% 12 of 20 6 of 8 3 of 5 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 21 of 29 72% 15 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 17 of 26 65% 10 of 16 5 of 6 2 of 4 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.

Cerrone at +200 might be worth a couple dollar long shot
"I think i'm siding with jim miller here but the odds are kind of crazy donald cerrone is a two-to-one underdog and he might be worth a couple dollar sprinkle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.

Miller by first round knockout
"give me uh jim miller to win jim miller to win my first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.

"I think Jim Miller gets the pounce on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.

Dog-or-pass; price is everything; no bet.
"i'm gonna lean with cowboy because of the price man plus 165"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.

Cerrone round 3/decision double chance
"i think the line is whack i think this should be closer to it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.

Cerrone round 3 +1600
"I don't know if I'm gonna get to Cerrone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.

underdog pick, fight of the night performance
"i'm gonna actually go with donald cerrone here in an underdog pick i think at 170 he shouldn't be that big of an underdog and this is a 50 50."
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

Big Brady is very confident in Solecki, ranking him among his top picks on the card. He highlights Solecki's superior grappling, takedown accuracy (62%), and 100% takedown defense, while Miller has poor takedown defense (46%). Brady expects Solecki to take Miller down and control him on the mat, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Miller's guillotine threat but believes Solecki's black belt will keep him safe. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late submission.

"honestly probably one of my most confident picks on the on the whole card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Cody passes on this fight, finding the -230 price too high for Solecki. He thinks the grappling is a wash and Miller has better striking. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.

Over 2.5 rounds -150; fight goes the distance
"it's a dogger pass type of situation i have no interest in selecting minus 230"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Joe Solecki

Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki, citing Jim Miller's age and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Solecki has improved his stand-up, as seen in the Austin Hubbard fight, and has a strong jiu-jitsu background. Levi thinks Miller's only path to victory is a first-round knockout, and if Solecki gets past that, he will take over. He also mentions that Solecki trains with John Salter and has a good mindset.

"I'm gonna go with joe solecki just by he's younger i like his mindset too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The host is a big believer in Solecki, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu, improving striking, and cardio. He thinks Solecki has the advantage everywhere, especially with Miller's poor takedown defense and tendency to slow down. He picks Solecki to win by decision or late submission, and notes that -235 is a fair price.

Solecki by decision or submission round 3
"i like slacky here i think he pretty much has him covered everywhere even if select he wants to take him down right off the bat i think he'll be good to go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul also passes, noting Solecki's poor striking and Miller's experience. He thinks the fight will be a grappling match that goes the distance. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds and fight goes the distance props.

Over 2.5 rounds +125; fight goes the distance
"i'm thinking over two and a half rounds minus 150 is probably my favorite play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Joe Solecki

The MMA Guru picks Joe Solecki by third-round rear-naked choke. He considers Solecki an underrated prospect who submitted Austin Hubbard easily. He notes Jim Miller has been out-grappled recently by Vince Pichel and is aging. He thinks Solecki will wear Miller down with body work against the cage and secure a submission in the third round.

third round rear-naked choke submission
"i think a young joe saleki is going to go out there and get the submission win by rear naked choke against jim miller"