UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas Next Fight
Age 29
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Fernando Padilla
6.07 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
5.74 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Luis Pajuelo
6.03 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
8.2 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Fernando Padilla
Moneyline
BetWay -165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +270
Submission
BetWay +600
Decision
BetRivers +285
Luis Pajuelo
Moneyline
FanDuel +150
KO/TKO
FanDuel +390
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
BetRivers +480
Fernando Padilla - Fight History
LOSS vs Sean Woodson
TKO (punches) R1 4:58 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Woodson 1 38 of 71 53% 38 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Fernando Padilla 0 22 of 69 31% 24 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Woodson 1 38 of 71 53% 38 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Fernando Padilla 0 22 of 69 31% 24 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Woodson 38 of 71 53% 35 of 64 0 of 3 3 of 4 36 of 69 0 of 0 2 of 2
Fernando Padilla 22 of 69 31% 14 of 59 4 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 61 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Woodson 38 of 71 53% 35 of 64 0 of 3 3 of 4 36 of 69 0 of 0 2 of 2
Fernando Padilla 22 of 69 31% 14 of 59 4 of 6 4 of 4 17 of 61 5 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean Woodson

Angelo picks Woodson due to his excellent range management and boxing background, which should allow him to dance around Padilla. He notes Woodson's 84% takedown defense and long reach, while Padilla has no wrestling and prefers pocket boxing. He expresses slight concern that Woodson's quiet win streak might end, but trusts what he sees.

"Shawn runs away with it he's too good at managing range to get crowded by a guy who can eat the leaves off the top of an oak tree without using his arms."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Big Brady picks Fernando Padilla to win by second-round submission. He thinks Padilla has more power and a slick grappling game, and can match Woodson's length. He notes Woodson has zero power and has been finished by lengthier opponents. He expects Padilla to hurt Woodson on the feet and then submit him.

"I think Padilla has all the finishing upside I think he hits much much harder I think he has the grappling advantage and he's the underdog"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Woodson

Cody picks Sean Woodson but with low confidence, citing his volume and reach advantage. He notes that Padilla has power and could catch Woodson, but Woodson's experience and ability to outpoint opponents should win. Cody is concerned about Woodson's chin after being dropped by Luis Saldana.

"I think I am going to for the time being maybe flop it later on in the week for the time being I'm taking Sean Woodson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Sean Woodson

Connor also picks Woodson, noting that Woodson is comfortable in the pocket and has decent defense, while Padilla is only truly dangerous in close. He points out that Woodson has more reach and a better idea of how to use it, but Padilla's finishing ability and Woodson's tendency to invite brawls make it a risky pick. Connor thinks Woodson can be more functional at ranges where Padilla is not competitive.

"I think I have to stick with the idea that Woodson can be much more functional at ranges where Padilla should be competitive, but just isn't."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean Woodson

Daniel Vreeland picks Sean Woodson to win by decision, citing his cleaner boxing and range management. He acknowledges Padilla's power and tenacity but believes Woodson will win the minutes and outpoint him. Vreeland notes Woodson has improved since his early UFC career and should be able to avoid big shots.

by decision
"I'm gonna take Woodson to win by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean Woodson

Woodson's height and reach advantage (6'2", 78 in reach) will allow him to touch up Padilla from distance with his jab and footwork, leading to another classic Woodson decision victory.

wins by decision
"I expect him to really touch up a from distance be a pest with his jab and his footwork and go on to another classic Woodson decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Paul leans towards Padilla by knockout, citing his power and Woodson's questionable chin. He notes that Padilla's win condition is a KO, and Woodson's tall man defense could be exploited. Paul prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Fernando Padilla by knockout, under 2.5 rounds (+185)
"Padilla by knockout would be the better way to go about it cuz like the under two and a half is Plus 185."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Woodson

The MMA Guru picks Sean Woodson despite past doubts about his performances. He notes Woodson's composure as the fight progresses, particularly his body work in rounds two and three. He acknowledges Fernando Padilla's dangerous striking but believes Woodson is better in the pocket and at range. He predicts a close decision (29-28) rather than a finish.

decision
"I'm going to say decision 2928 very competitive fight that's what I would imagine"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Sean Woodson

Zane picks Woodson but acknowledges it's not easy. He notes that Woodson has a functional long-range game and is learning to lean into it, while Padilla is all about crashing into the pocket. However, Padilla is a fast finisher and Woodson tends to invite pocket exchanges, which could get him in trouble. Zane thinks Woodson's reach and better use of range should prevail, but Padilla has opportunities.

Woodson opened at -166, now -146; Padilla opened at +147, now +131. Zane says the line makes sense.
"I'm gonna take Woodson as well, but it's not actually that easy if I pick and it's well booked I think."
WIN vs Luis Pajuelo
Submission (brabo choke) R1 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fernando Padilla 1 34 of 61 55% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:47
Luis Pajuelo 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fernando Padilla 1 34 of 61 55% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:47
Luis Pajuelo 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fernando Padilla 34 of 61 55% 24 of 49 6 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 32 0 of 0 17 of 29
Luis Pajuelo 5 of 13 38% 1 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fernando Padilla 34 of 61 55% 24 of 49 6 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 32 0 of 0 17 of 29
Luis Pajuelo 5 of 13 38% 1 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Angelo picks Luis Pajuelo as a low confidence underdog, drawing parallels to Padilla's loss to Kyle Nelson where forward pressure caused problems. He believes Pajuelo's constant forward pressure and aggression will overwhelm Padilla, who lacks wrestling to take the fight down. He expects a close decision but will not bet due to Pajuelo being an untested UFC debut.

"I think Luis pelo can come forward stay in his face and grind out a win I think he's going to squeak out a very close decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Big Brady picks Fernando Padilla, citing his reach and height advantage, better cardio, and grappling. He notes Luis Pajuelo is hittable and has zero striking defense, but is durable. He expects Padilla to land many strikes and eventually break Pajuelo, finishing him by third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I'm going Padilla I'm going Padilla to win this fight by third round knocker"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Cody picks Pajuelo, citing his physical strength, cardio from training at altitude, and high volume. He notes that Padilla struggles against strong, forward-pressure fighters like Kyle Nelson. Cody expects Pajuelo to outwork and outmuscle Padilla, possibly winning by decision.

Pajuelo by decision +475
"I would take Luis penjo."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Daniel Vreeland picks Fernando Padilla by decision, citing his seven-inch reach advantage and experience. He notes Pajuelo has holes in his game, especially off his back, and tends to brawl recklessly. He believes Padilla will stay on the outside and pick Pajuelo apart, possibly winning a decision.

Padilla by decision
"I'm gon go pillo by decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Pajuelo is a pressure fighter with great durability and a relentless pace. He will move forward and drown Padilla, who tends to slow down in deep waters. Padilla is slick from range but struggles when pressured. Pajuelo should get a TKO, though he must be careful of submissions in the clinch. Pajuelo is a solid underdog play.

Pajuelo by TKO
"I love pedu in the spot think he's a damn good Underdog and I think he ends up coming out on top inside the disc distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Pajuelo's volume and power will be too much for Padilla. He likes the plus money on Pajuelo and even suggests a prop bet on Pajuelo by decision at +475.

Pajuelo by decision +475
"I'm taking the shot on poo by decision there plus 475 can't help myself Cody."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

The MMA Guru picks Luis Pajuelo over Fernando Padilla, highlighting Pajuelo's boxing background as a national champion in Peru. He likes Pajuelo's confidence and composure under fire, and thinks he will find Padilla's chin and body. He predicts a liver shot TKO, noting Padilla's narrow frame. He expresses concern about Pajuelo's takedown defense but doesn't think Padilla will wrestle.

liver shot TKO
"I'm going with lisis pello by liver shot TKO"
LOSS vs Kyle Nelson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Nelson 0 72 of 208 34% 73 of 209 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Fernando Padilla 0 82 of 184 44% 83 of 185 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Nelson 0 26 of 82 31% 26 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Fernando Padilla 0 25 of 50 50% 25 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Kyle Nelson 0 22 of 59 37% 23 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Fernando Padilla 0 30 of 58 51% 31 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kyle Nelson 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Fernando Padilla 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Nelson 72 of 208 34% 42 of 168 17 of 22 13 of 18 65 of 198 7 of 10 0 of 0
Fernando Padilla 82 of 184 44% 43 of 143 19 of 20 20 of 21 80 of 176 2 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Nelson 26 of 82 31% 17 of 68 5 of 8 4 of 6 24 of 77 2 of 5 0 of 0
Fernando Padilla 25 of 50 50% 12 of 36 5 of 5 8 of 9 25 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Kyle Nelson 22 of 59 37% 11 of 46 6 of 6 5 of 7 19 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
Fernando Padilla 30 of 58 51% 16 of 43 8 of 9 6 of 6 29 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Kyle Nelson 24 of 67 35% 14 of 54 6 of 8 4 of 5 22 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Fernando Padilla 27 of 76 35% 15 of 64 6 of 6 6 of 6 26 of 71 1 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Angelo picks Fernando Padilla, noting his accuracy and clinch work will be the difference. He mentions both fighters like gritty pocket fights, which favors Padilla. He wishes the value were better at -241 and plans to monitor the line movement before betting.

"Fernandez accuracy and clinch is probably going to be the difference I wish he were a little better value right now he's minus 241"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Big Brady is confident in Padilla, criticizing Nelson's recent inactivity and poor performances. He believes Padilla will force the action and that Nelson will revert to his old ways of gassing and getting finished. He notes Padilla's power, cardio, and grappling skills, and predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I like Mike Padilla to win here I'm going to say Padilla to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Cody considers Nelson a live dog due to his durability, wrestling, and experience. He notes Nelson's low volume is a concern but thinks he can make fights close and has power. However, he is not confident enough to bet and may pass, preferring Giagos as a better dog play.

"Kyle Nelson is very very live so it's a dogger pass situation for me but I think I'm airing on the side of caution."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Daniel Levi picks Fernando Padilla but with low confidence, as he is still unsure what Padilla truly is at the UFC level. He notes Padilla's length and toughness but questions his durability over three rounds. Levi believes Kyle Nelson is a known quantity and that Padilla has the power and reach to win, but he did not bet the fight because the jury is still out on Padilla's long-term potential.

"I'm picking him to win this fight because we know what Kyle Nelson is right I just don't know what Padilla is yet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Padilla is a finisher with 13 of 15 wins inside the distance, showcasing pinpoint striking and accuracy. Nelson is on a resurgence but relies on striking and has been inconsistent. Padilla has advantages in reach, speed, and jiu-jitsu if the fight goes to the ground. I expect Padilla to utilize combination striking from distance and get a finish, likely by submission in the second round.

under 2.5 rounds, Padilla by submission
"I like Padilla in this spot I think what CM utilizes combination striking to touch up Kyle Nelson from distance and then I fully expect him to get him out of there probably by the second round I'm going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Paul picks Padilla but is not confident. He notes Padilla's dynamic offense and volume, but worries about unknowns and Nelson's durability and wrestling. He sees value in Nelson as a dog but ultimately sides with Padilla's speed and finishing ability.

"Padilla just keeps screaming to me is like the synopsis of this whole fight is like who's going to throw more and I feel like that is Padilla."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

The MMA Guru picks Fernando Padilla over Kyle Nelson, citing Padilla's dangerous striking and 76-inch reach advantage. He notes Padilla's quick TKO of Julian Erosa on short notice and believes he will look even better on a full camp. He mentions Padilla's takedown defense and that he is hard to finish, predicting a decision or finish by Padilla.

"I'm going with Fernando Padilla there"
WIN vs Julian Erosa
TKO (punches) R1 1:41 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Cody picks Padilla as an underdog, citing Erosa's durability issues and tendency to get knocked out. He notes that Padilla has decent power and could catch Erosa early. However, he is flip-floppy and admits he wants to pick Erosa due to experience, but the favorite tag on a chinny fighter makes him lean towards the underdog.

"for the purposes of the show I need some underdogs and I'll I'm gonna take Padilla but like ah I want to take a Rosa I really really do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Connor thinks Erosa's experience and durability will prevail. He notes Padilla's poor defense and tendency to gas, and that Erosa gets stronger as fights go on. He acknowledges Erosa's history of getting KO'd but believes Padilla's lack of power and technical striking make it less likely. He sees Erosa as the more versatile fighter in messy exchanges.

Odds mentioned: Erosa opened -252, currently -140. Padilla opened +218, currently +126. Connor thinks the odds should be closer to 50/50.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa but very cautiously, acknowledging his chin issues and recent knockout losses. He notes that Erosa is talented and exciting but has been knocked out by light punchers. He is not confident enough to bet on Erosa, but for the pick he goes with Erosa, hoping he doesn't get cracked again.

"I'm gonna be picking Julian Arosa but uh ever so cautiously because that chin can get cracked and has got cracked"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane agrees, citing Padilla's limited game and Erosa's ability to win scrambles and late rounds. He notes Padilla's submissions off his back but thinks Erosa's aggression and cardio will be decisive. He sees Erosa as the rightful slight favorite.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
Luis Pajuelo - Fight History
Submission (brabo choke) R1 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fernando Padilla 1 34 of 61 55% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:47
Luis Pajuelo 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fernando Padilla 1 34 of 61 55% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:47
Luis Pajuelo 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fernando Padilla 34 of 61 55% 24 of 49 6 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 32 0 of 0 17 of 29
Luis Pajuelo 5 of 13 38% 1 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fernando Padilla 34 of 61 55% 24 of 49 6 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 32 0 of 0 17 of 29
Luis Pajuelo 5 of 13 38% 1 of 9 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Angelo picks Luis Pajuelo as a low confidence underdog, drawing parallels to Padilla's loss to Kyle Nelson where forward pressure caused problems. He believes Pajuelo's constant forward pressure and aggression will overwhelm Padilla, who lacks wrestling to take the fight down. He expects a close decision but will not bet due to Pajuelo being an untested UFC debut.

"I think Luis pelo can come forward stay in his face and grind out a win I think he's going to squeak out a very close decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Big Brady picks Fernando Padilla, citing his reach and height advantage, better cardio, and grappling. He notes Luis Pajuelo is hittable and has zero striking defense, but is durable. He expects Padilla to land many strikes and eventually break Pajuelo, finishing him by third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I'm going Padilla I'm going Padilla to win this fight by third round knocker"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Cody picks Pajuelo, citing his physical strength, cardio from training at altitude, and high volume. He notes that Padilla struggles against strong, forward-pressure fighters like Kyle Nelson. Cody expects Pajuelo to outwork and outmuscle Padilla, possibly winning by decision.

Pajuelo by decision +475
"I would take Luis penjo."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Daniel Vreeland picks Fernando Padilla by decision, citing his seven-inch reach advantage and experience. He notes Pajuelo has holes in his game, especially off his back, and tends to brawl recklessly. He believes Padilla will stay on the outside and pick Pajuelo apart, possibly winning a decision.

Padilla by decision
"I'm gon go pillo by decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Pajuelo is a pressure fighter with great durability and a relentless pace. He will move forward and drown Padilla, who tends to slow down in deep waters. Padilla is slick from range but struggles when pressured. Pajuelo should get a TKO, though he must be careful of submissions in the clinch. Pajuelo is a solid underdog play.

Pajuelo by TKO
"I love pedu in the spot think he's a damn good Underdog and I think he ends up coming out on top inside the disc distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Pajuelo's volume and power will be too much for Padilla. He likes the plus money on Pajuelo and even suggests a prop bet on Pajuelo by decision at +475.

Pajuelo by decision +475
"I'm taking the shot on poo by decision there plus 475 can't help myself Cody."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

The MMA Guru picks Luis Pajuelo over Fernando Padilla, highlighting Pajuelo's boxing background as a national champion in Peru. He likes Pajuelo's confidence and composure under fire, and thinks he will find Padilla's chin and body. He predicts a liver shot TKO, noting Padilla's narrow frame. He expresses concern about Pajuelo's takedown defense but doesn't think Padilla will wrestle.

liver shot TKO
"I'm going with lisis pello by liver shot TKO"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Angelo picks Luis Pajuelo as a low confidence underdog, drawing parallels to Padilla's loss to Kyle Nelson where forward pressure caused problems. He believes Pajuelo's constant forward pressure and aggression will overwhelm Padilla, who lacks wrestling to take the fight down. He expects a close decision but will not bet due to Pajuelo being an untested UFC debut.

"I think Luis pelo can come forward stay in his face and grind out a win I think he's going to squeak out a very close decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Big Brady picks Fernando Padilla, citing his reach and height advantage, better cardio, and grappling. He notes Luis Pajuelo is hittable and has zero striking defense, but is durable. He expects Padilla to land many strikes and eventually break Pajuelo, finishing him by third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I'm going Padilla I'm going Padilla to win this fight by third round knocker"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Cody picks Pajuelo, citing his physical strength, cardio from training at altitude, and high volume. He notes that Padilla struggles against strong, forward-pressure fighters like Kyle Nelson. Cody expects Pajuelo to outwork and outmuscle Padilla, possibly winning by decision.

Pajuelo by decision +475
"I would take Luis penjo."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Daniel Vreeland picks Fernando Padilla by decision, citing his seven-inch reach advantage and experience. He notes Pajuelo has holes in his game, especially off his back, and tends to brawl recklessly. He believes Padilla will stay on the outside and pick Pajuelo apart, possibly winning a decision.

Padilla by decision
"I'm gon go pillo by decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Pajuelo is a pressure fighter with great durability and a relentless pace. He will move forward and drown Padilla, who tends to slow down in deep waters. Padilla is slick from range but struggles when pressured. Pajuelo should get a TKO, though he must be careful of submissions in the clinch. Pajuelo is a solid underdog play.

Pajuelo by TKO
"I love pedu in the spot think he's a damn good Underdog and I think he ends up coming out on top inside the disc distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Pajuelo's volume and power will be too much for Padilla. He likes the plus money on Pajuelo and even suggests a prop bet on Pajuelo by decision at +475.

Pajuelo by decision +475
"I'm taking the shot on poo by decision there plus 475 can't help myself Cody."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Luis Pajuelo

The MMA Guru picks Luis Pajuelo over Fernando Padilla, highlighting Pajuelo's boxing background as a national champion in Peru. He likes Pajuelo's confidence and composure under fire, and thinks he will find Padilla's chin and body. He predicts a liver shot TKO, noting Padilla's narrow frame. He expresses concern about Pajuelo's takedown defense but doesn't think Padilla will wrestle.

liver shot TKO
"I'm going with lisis pello by liver shot TKO"