Career Averages - Payton Talbott
Career Averages - Cameron Saaiman
Payton Talbott
Cameron Saaiman
Payton Talbott - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 0 | 60 of 116 | 51% | 77 of 136 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Payton Talbott | 1 | 134 of 217 | 61% | 156 of 240 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 40 of 57 | 70% | 50 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Payton Talbott | 1 | 50 of 88 | 56% | 57 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 49 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Cejudo | 60 of 116 | 51% | 33 of 83 | 10 of 12 | 17 of 21 | 51 of 104 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Payton Talbott | 134 of 217 | 61% | 89 of 167 | 34 of 39 | 11 of 11 | 90 of 168 | 28 of 31 | 16 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henry Cejudo | 22 of 44 | 50% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 14 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Payton Talbott | 40 of 57 | 70% | 28 of 45 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 29 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Henry Cejudo | 18 of 38 | 47% | 11 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Payton Talbott | 50 of 88 | 56% | 35 of 69 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 62 | 12 of 15 | 9 of 11 | |
| 3 | Henry Cejudo | 20 of 34 | 58% | 11 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Payton Talbott | 44 of 72 | 61% | 26 of 53 | 14 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 60 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Payton Talbott, acknowledging Henry Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but believing Cejudo is too old and past his prime. He notes that Talbott is much larger, athletic, and has improved his wrestling since the Hani Barcelos fight. Angelo expects Talbott to use his size and speed to overwhelm Cejudo, despite his personal admiration for Cejudo.
Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, noting Cejudo's retirement talk, lack of recent wins, and decline. He highlights Talbott's improvements in takedown defense and scrambling after the Barcelos fight. He expects Talbott to win by third-round knockout.
Cody is hesitant but picks Talbott, noting that Cejudo's recent fights show he doesn't wrestle enough. He points out that Cejudo's takedown attempts have declined and he relies on striking, where Talbott has a reach advantage. He mentions that Talbott's wrestling looked improved against Felipe Lima. He is tempted by Cejudo's dog odds but doesn't trust him to wrestle.
Connor picks Talbott, arguing that Cejudo doesn't want to wrestle and will likely revert to his preferred striking. He notes that Talbott has shown improvement in defensive wrestling since the Barcelos fight, and his pressure-volume style is effective. Connor believes Cejudo can hit takedowns but doubts his ability to stick with a wrestling-heavy game plan, especially at 38. He sees Talbott as a younger, more dynamic striker who understands pace and pressure.
Daniel picks Talbott, citing Cejudo's age (38), size disadvantage (5'4 vs 5'10), and decline since retirement. He expects Cejudo to have early success but fade, while Talbott's power and athleticism will take over. He notes Talbott's learning from his first loss and improved confidence.
Lucrative James believes Henry Cejudo is not fully committed to MMA, citing his content creation and retirement talk. He thinks Talbott's relentless pressure and body work will wear down Cejudo, especially in rounds 2 and 3. He notes Talbott's presence and striking flow are exceptional and predicts a round 3 stoppage or decision win.
The host expects the fight to be more competitive than the -255 odds suggest but still picks Talbott to land more effective damage and do enough defensive grappling to keep Cejudo from grinding. He predicts a decision win for Talbott.
Paul picks Talbott, echoing Cody's concerns about Cejudo's wrestling. He notes that Cejudo's best wins came against older or smaller opponents and that he hasn't knocked anyone out since 2020. He believes Talbott's length and accuracy will cause problems for Cejudo, who is reluctant to shoot takedowns. He thinks Talbott wins by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Henry Cejudo as a +230 underdog over Payton Talbott. He believes Talbott is being pushed too fast and Cejudo's experience and chin will be too much. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Cejudo.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cejudo's career shows a reluctance to wrestle unless forced. He points out that Talbott's game is built on pressure and volume, similar to Colby Covington's approach, but with actual striking talent. Zane believes Talbott will come in improved after the Lima fight, where he showed better defensive wrestling. He thinks Cejudo's takedowns will be less effective as the fight goes on, and Talbott's pace will overwhelm him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 59 of 118 | 50% | 97 of 165 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 4:49 |
| Felipe Lima | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 37 of 70 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Felipe Lima | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 17 of 27 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 2 | Payton Talbott | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 35 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:52 |
| Felipe Lima | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Payton Talbott | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 40 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Felipe Lima | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 9 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 59 of 118 | 50% | 48 of 103 | 5 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 37 of 93 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 23 |
| Felipe Lima | 26 of 58 | 44% | 17 of 48 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 14 of 26 | 53% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
| Felipe Lima | 10 of 20 | 50% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Payton Talbott | 21 of 46 | 45% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
| Felipe Lima | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Payton Talbott | 24 of 46 | 52% | 18 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Felipe Lima | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Felipe Lima because he believes Lima is a better all-around fighter than Payton Talbott, with superior grappling and the ability to mix striking and takedowns. He notes that Talbott's takedown defense was exposed in his last fight, and Lima has better wins in the UFC. He disagrees with the odds, saying both are even prospects and the line should be closer, but he still favors Lima.
Big Brady identifies a clear hole in Payton Talbott's game: his wrestling and ground defense, as seen in the Barcelos fight where he was taken down repeatedly. He notes that Felipe Lima is well-rounded and a high-level grappler who can take Talbott down and control him. Brady believes Lima will use his wrestling advantage to secure a decision win, as Talbott's striking is good but Lima can hang on the feet and then dominate on the mat.
Connor picks Talbott but acknowledges the risk. He believes Talbott is a special striker with a deep understanding of pace and pressure, and that he will likely land big shots early. However, he notes that Lima is incredibly durable and mentally resilient, and that Talbott has shown vulnerability to wrestling and grinding fights. He thinks this is reckless matchmaking for Talbott after his loss.
The host considers Lima a higher-level prospect than Talbott, expecting Lima to touch him up with combinations and takedown attempts, grinding out a decision win.
The host picks Felipe Lima, arguing that Talbott's wins have aged poorly and that Lima is more well-rounded. He criticizes Talbott's head movement and ground defense, noting that he gives up his back often. He believes Lima will finish by rear-naked choke in the first or second round, as he is a more proven prospect with better striking and grappling.
Zane also picks Talbott but is cautious. He agrees that Talbott is a special striker and that Lima's wrestling may not be enough to exploit Talbott's weaknesses. However, he notes that Lima is a tough, durable fighter who can turn the fight into a war, and Talbott has not been in such a fight before. He thinks there is a strong chance Talbott loses composure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 49 of 84 | 58% | 59 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 62 of 85 | 72% | 91 of 115 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 2 | 0 | 9:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 19 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 4:51 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 23 of 28 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 31 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 37 of 52 | 71% | 49 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 49 of 84 | 58% | 39 of 74 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 67 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 |
| Payton Talbott | 62 of 85 | 72% | 59 of 81 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 39 of 50 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Payton Talbott | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 25 of 44 | 56% | 21 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Payton Talbott | 17 of 22 | 77% | 14 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 22 of 38 | 57% | 18 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 7 |
| Payton Talbott | 37 of 52 | 71% | 37 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 35 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Talbott (-1200), Barcelos (+750)
Round 1
A red-hot commodity in flashy, undefeated Talbott (9-0, 3-0 UFC) will serve as the preliminary headliner, hoping to wrest the torch from aging Brazilian Barcelos (18-5, 7-4 UFC) in a pivotal bantamweight affair. Talbott has only heard the final bell one time, while his opponent can say he has been involved with more decisions than Talbott has pro fights. Referee Herb Dean will serve as the arbiter of this bout, and the fighters acknowledge him and one another but do not tap their gloves together. Barcelos starts the fight by leaping at Talbott’s left leg, pursuing a single without letting the youngster get started. Talbott backs himself to the wall and sets up a guillotine choke, but the veteran trips him up and puts him on his seat without fear of the submission. Talbott is loudly warned by grabbing inside of Barcelos’ gloves, and he wall-walks to get back up and lean against the fence. Barcelos laces his legs between his opponent’s in hopes of snaking him down, and he jumps on Talbott’s back to further threaten him. Talbott shakes him off, and Barcelos tries again to be a malicious backpack but settles for pulling the unbeaten fighter face-first to the floor. Barcelos wraps his leg around the waist for a single hook, and Talbott is once more warned for foot grabs. Barcelos times a Talbott scramble perfectly to wrap his forearm around the neck, only to let it go so he can start slugging Talbott on the side of the head. Talbott turns to his side while under fire, and he fights off a choke and finds himself in a second. Barcelos does not have the choke under the chin and is more neck/face cranking him to make his life miserable, and he once more releases it to shift into full mount. The Brazilian drops down a powerful elbow and he moves to half guard to he can set up an arm-triangle choke, squeezing down hard but not going for broke to get it done. Talbott remains calm and composed despite getting dominated, and Barcelos leaps over him and holds him down from the other side while in half guard. Barcelos gets directly to full mount like a hot knife cutting through butter, and he lets Talbott give up his back so he can go for one final choke before time runs out in the round. The one-sided round ends before Barcelos can get it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Barcelos
Round 2
The fighters race towards one another to start the second round, and Talbott is the aggressor as he pushes jabs out to keep Barcelos honest. Barcelos scores a few low kicks, but one is met with a right hand over the top. Barcelos shoots, and Talbott shuts him down. As Talbott slides forward to strike, Barcelos deftly trips him up and places him flat on his back. Barcelos lands immediately in half guard, and he is active on top. Talbott scrambles to get to his knees, and he takes a knee on the chin while freeing himself. Talbott walks Barcelos down with long, straight punches, and Barcelos returns fire with a right hand that leads into a clean takedown. The Brazilian hits the mat on top in side control, and he leaps into full mount uncontested. Barcelos gets a little high, and before Talbott can buck him off or sneak out the back, he moves himself down a bit. This does not matter, as Talbott still escapes to get up, but not before taking a knee on the liver. Talbott is surprised by the strike, opening Barcelos up to nail him with a spinning back fist. The prospect walks forward ready to trade, and he connects with a few punches only to get nailed with a right hand on the way back. Talbott smiles and waves him on, as he is much more comfortable in a wild striking exchange than a grappling affair. Talbott shucks off a takedown and connects with a powerful uppercut, and he fights off another takedown try. On the third, Barcelos manages to wrangle Talbott to the floor, and he gets to half guard and hops to the side to drop down a powerful elbow. As Barcelos is about to set up a crucifix, the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Round 3
The bantamweights get right to it to start off the last round, with Talbott pressuring fully and clipping Barcelos with an uppercut. A few more punches are strung together, and Barcelos goes after a telegraphed takedown. Talbott sees it coming and hits a beautiful throw that reverses the Brazilian and puts him on the mat. As “USA” chants echo through the Intuit Dome, Barcelos worms his way to the fencing but absorbs some ground-and-pound to get there. Talbott scores a few punches, and Barcelos tosses his leg up to hook an omoplata shoulder lock. As he does this, he hooks his hand in the fence, and Dean sees it and pauses the fight. Dean offers to take away the position from the foul, and when Talbott says no, they resume in the position they left off. Barcelos explodes back to his feet and blasts the youngster with a flurry of punches, including a flying knee that does some damage. Talbott responds with a flying knee that rocks the Brazilian, and as they both hit the ground from wild strikes, they climb back up and trade again. Barcelos backs off to take some breathes, and Talbott drops his hands and marches forward like a Terminator. Barcelos fakes a level change, and Talbott answers with a spinning wheel kick that slaps him in the face. Barcelos grins and attacks another takedown, landing it and taking some of the wind out of the American’s sails. Talbott turns to his knees, and Barcelos follows him every step of the way and wraps his legs around his waist. Barcelos slides into full mount when Talbott turns to his back, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke. Barcelos releases the choke and sits up to wrench on the arm with an unorthodox straight armbar, and he switches gears for a rear-naked choke that is not under the chin. Talbott signals a thumbs-up, and Barcelos lets it go to pound on Talbott with punctuating ground-and-pound. Barcelos unleashes a fury of punches and elbows, laying down one final bombardment that only ends with 15 minutes elapsing—a few more seconds and he might have gotten the stoppage. The elder statesman put on a show here, shutting down the likely formerly unbeaten prospect and spring what may be “Upset of the Year” with Talbott closing with a betting line around -1200. What a performance, as Barcelos appears to have found the fountain of youth at the tender age of 37.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos (30-26 Barcelos)
The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Payton Talbott via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Angelo is extremely confident in Payton Talbott, citing his youth, speed, and striking ability. He believes the age and speed gap will be decisive and expects Talbott to potentially knock out Barcelos. He warns against betting Talbott at -1200, calling it too risky.
Cody picks Payton Talbott confidently, viewing him as a rising star. He notes Talbott's exceptional striking, athleticism, and rapidly improving takedown defense. Cody points out that Barcelos is 37 and has slowed down, with recent losses showing regression in wrestling, striking defense, and reflexes. He believes Talbott's speed and power will be too much, and that Barcelos's best days are behind him. Cody expects Talbott to win dominantly, possibly by knockout.
Daniel picks Talbott by knockout, citing his volume, power, and swag. He notes that Barcelos is almost 40 and has taken too much damage in recent fights. Daniel mentions that Barcelos is a savvy vet but Talbott is quicker, younger, and more durable. He says he cannot lay -1200 but expects Talbott to win by knockout.
The host is a huge Barcelos fan but acknowledges Talbott is a much slicker striker who uses speed and power to land big shots. He expects Talbott to put Barcelos away in under one and a half rounds.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Talbott. He notes that Talbott looks like he's in the Matrix and is a new-generation fighter. Paul believes Barcelos is too slow and past his prime, and that Talbott's speed and striking will be decisive. He also mentions that Barcelos has been taken down and outworked by younger fighters recently. Paul is not stepping in front of the Talbott train.
The MMA Guru picks Payton Talbott to win by TKO. He notes Barcelos' chin is deteriorating with age (37), and Talbott is a big bantamweight with reach advantage. He worries about Talbott's activity and social media distractions but believes he will catch Barcelos on the feet. He predicts a KO late in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 1 | 13 of 13 | 100% | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Yanis Ghemmouri | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 1 | 13 of 13 | 100% | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Yanis Ghemmouri | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 13 of 13 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Yanis Ghemmouri | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 13 of 13 | 100% | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Yanis Ghemmouri | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Talbott, calling him a future star. He notes that Talbott has excellent footwork, speed, and precision, and that he has finished all his opponents. Cody believes Ghemmouri is a step down in competition and that Talbott will likely win by knockout. He also mentions that Talbott's takedown defense has improved and that he is comfortable striking.
Daniel sees Talbott as a rising star with astronomic improvements, citing his win over Cameron Simon as eye-opening. He thinks Ghemmouri is a solid but low-output kickboxer who lacks the 'it factor.' He expects Talbott to eventually make reads and finish, possibly by guillotine or head kick, but acknowledges it could go the distance.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host is very confident Talbott will win, calling him one of the best bantamweight strikers. He expects a highlight-reel knockout, noting Talbott's speed, footwork, and improved takedown defense. He criticizes Ghemmouri's management for taking this fight and says Talbott should have no trouble finishing him.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Talbott is a massive favorite for a reason. He points out that Talbott has never finished anyone in the first round but wears opponents down with volume. Paul believes Talbott will eventually get a knockout or submission, but the minus-1700 price is too high to bet straight. He suggests the knockout prop at minus-250 as a better option.
The Guru picks Payton Talbott over Yanis Ghemmouri. He acknowledges Talbott's hype but notes he is not a future champion. He believes Talbott has composure and finishing potential. He predicts a TKO in the second or third round, but warns that Ghemmouri may have moments and that Talbott should not be such a heavy favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 1 | 79 of 129 | 61% | 83 of 135 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 33 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 0 | 59 of 105 | 56% | 63 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Payton Talbott | 1 | 20 of 24 | 83% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 79 of 129 | 61% | 52 of 96 | 21 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 54 of 98 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 23 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 31 of 64 | 48% | 13 of 40 | 11 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 59 of 105 | 56% | 32 of 72 | 21 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 53 of 96 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 31 of 62 | 50% | 13 of 38 | 11 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Payton Talbott | 20 of 24 | 83% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Payton Talbott, citing his dangerous striking and the poor performance of Saaiman in his last loss. He notes that Talbott's takedown defense is a concern, but Saaiman is not a great wrestler. He is undecided on a bet but may place a small wager or include Talbott in a high-risk parlay due to the even odds.
Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, citing his striking volume, power, pressure, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Saaiman's takedown threat is a concern but believes the fight will primarily be on the feet. He predicts Talbott wins by decision, possibly finishing late.
Cody prefers the known commodity in Saaiman, who has proven his toughness and volume. He notes that Talbott is untested and lost the first round against Nick Aguirre. Cody believes Saaiman's forward pressure and volume will earn him rounds, and he likes the plus money on the underdog.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Payton Talbott, citing his physical attributes, durability, and cardio. He notes Talbott is a slow starter but comes on strong in later rounds, while Saaiman is more technically sound. He expects a competitive fight but thinks Talbott's intangibles edge him out.
Talbott is the cleaner striker with good combinations and improving defensive grappling. Saaiman relies on athleticism and power but has been taken down and ground out before. Talbott should keep the fight standing and land cleaner shots, possibly opening up a finish. Saaiman's power is a threat, but Talbott's technical edge should win a decision.
Paul leans toward Talbott based on his reach advantage and high volume output (145 significant strikes in his Contender Series fight). He acknowledges Saaiman's takedown ability but thinks Talbott's striking and familiarity with the Vegas environment give him an edge. Paul sees it as a close fight.
The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman over Payton Talbott, citing Saaiman's kicks and clinch work as key. He thinks Talbott is kickable and that Saaiman's body kicks and low kicks will be effective. He also favors Saaiman's grappling and scrambles. He predicts Saaiman wins a decision, losing the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 0 | 28 of 53 | 52% | 58 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 18 of 29 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 5:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 | |
| 2 | Payton Talbott | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 39 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Payton Talbott | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 28 of 53 | 52% | 22 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 |
| Nick Aguirre | 5 of 12 | 41% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nick Aguirre | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Payton Talbott | 15 of 29 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 17 |
| Nick Aguirre | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Payton Talbott | 12 of 22 | 54% | 8 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Nick Aguirre | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Payton Talbott, noting he is a flashy striker with power and movement. He acknowledges Talbott can be out-grappled but expects him to starch his opponent. He comments that the odds at 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 seem wide but the UFC is building him up.
Big Brady thinks Talbott is a big favorite for a reason, with incredible striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Aguirre's striking is non-existent and that Dan Arretta out struck him 27-13. He predicts Talbott will drown Aguirre with volume and finish him in the second round, unless Aguirre gets a first-round submission. He says the price is wide but warranted.
Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He notes that Talbott is a huge favorite at -700 but is making his UFC debut, which makes him hesitant. He considers a sprinkle on Aguirre by submission as a dog play but does not commit to a pick.
Aguirre is a slick submission specialist with crafty BJJ. Talbott is a striker who has struggled with grappling control in the past. Aguirre can get the fight to the ground via clinch or pulling guard and find a submission. The line is too wide; a small poke on Aguirre by submission at +1000 is a steal.
Paul also does not make a clear pick. He discusses the line being too high for an unproven debutant and mentions that Aguirre has a chance via submission. He leans towards not betting the favorite but does not pick a side.
The MMA Guru picks Payton Talbott to win by TKO, calling Nick Aguirre 'garbage' and criticizing the matchup as a gimme for Talbott. He praises Talbott's striking from the Contender Series and believes he will easily win.
Cameron Saaiman - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Wellmaker | 1 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malcolm Wellmaker | 1 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Wellmaker | 6 of 12 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 9 of 18 | 50% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malcolm Wellmaker | 6 of 12 | 50% | 1 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 9 of 18 | 50% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Saaiman (-110), Wellmaker (-110)
Round 1
Undefeated as a pro, 2024 Contender Series pickup Wellmaker (8-0, 0-0 UFC) want to keep that momentum going as he reaches the big leagues. His first test in the Octagon will be Saaiman (9-2, 3-2 UFC), who knocked out an unbeaten foe in Steven Koslow in his own UFC debut. Knockout rates of 50% or higher for each bantamweight mean that referee Zach Teiberis should be on his A game. There is no glove touch, as they instead want to find a way in with their alternated stances—Saaiman southpaw to Wellmaker in orthodox. Chants in support of Wellmaker rain down quickly, only to abate when the fighters do not do anything. They finally get down to business 30 seconds in, firing single strikes at one another. They take turns when engaging, with Saaiman the slightly more active as he stays on the outside edge with kicks going to all targets. Wellmaker swings twice with big hooks, and Saaiman sees them coming and returns fire with a spinning back kick to the gut. Wellmaker frowns and tries to let go with a right hook, and Saaiman dodges it and chews up the front leg with a trio of kicks. Wellmaker goes to the body with a right hand, and Saaiman does not like it and circles away.
Ignoring a right hand on the jaw, “The Machine” mechanically launches a devastating right hook that sends Saaiman flying, and Saaiman is out cold before he hits the mat. As Teiberis is rushing to get between the fighters, Wellmaker connects with a vicious standing-to-ground right hand to punctuate his performance
. When Teiberis halts the match, Wellmaker drops to his knees to drink in the moment, still undefeated while authoring an incredible knockout in his UFC debut. It takes Saaiman a bit of time to get back to his stool, but he manages to recover. Thrilled as can be, the victorious UFC newcomer calls for a spot on the upcoming Atlanta event in June, and he will more than likely get it as the promotion loves when fighters call for opportunities like that.
The Official Result
Malcolm Wellmaker def. Cameron Saaiman R1 1:59 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Malcolm Wellmaker but with low confidence, noting that Wellmaker is an untested UFC debutant with power and accuracy, while Cameron Saaiman has volume and experience. He mentions that if the fight were in Las Vegas, he'd be more confident in Wellmaker due to judging preferences for finishing ability.
Big Brady leans toward Malcolm Wellmaker, impressed by his composure and power despite limited pro experience. He notes Cameron Saaiman's hittability (51% striking defense) and questions the quality of his wins. He predicts Wellmaker will land a clean shot and win by second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Saaiman's losses are to good competition.
Connor picks Saaiman, despite acknowledging that Saaiman is often outgunned athletically. He believes Saaiman's toughness and relentless pace will overwhelm Wellmaker, who is undercooked and lacks technical defense. Connor notes that Wellmaker's decision-making is poor and that Saaiman can impose a pace that Wellmaker cannot handle.
The host leans Wellmaker as the superior striker, noting he is hittable but has good durability and defensive grappling, and expects him to snipe Saaiman from distance and win by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Malcolm Wellmaker, but his reasoning is heavily influenced by a personal grievance: Cameron Saaiman missed a scheduled interview, leading the Guru to speculate that disaster has struck Saaiman's camp. He acknowledges Saaiman is more well-rounded but likes Wellmaker's counter punching and finishing potential. He calls the fight a 50/50.
Zane picks Wellmaker, citing his superior athleticism and belief that he will land a big shot. He notes that Saaiman's process is better but his technique is also flawed, and that Wellmaker's confidence and power could catch Saaiman. Zane also mentions that Saaiman's pressure often puts himself in danger, and Wellmaker is bold enough to exploit that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 1 | 79 of 129 | 61% | 83 of 135 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 33 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 0 | 59 of 105 | 56% | 63 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 31 of 62 | 50% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Payton Talbott | 1 | 20 of 24 | 83% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott | 79 of 129 | 61% | 52 of 96 | 21 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 54 of 98 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 23 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 31 of 64 | 48% | 13 of 40 | 11 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Payton Talbott | 59 of 105 | 56% | 32 of 72 | 21 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 53 of 96 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 31 of 62 | 50% | 13 of 38 | 11 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 30 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Payton Talbott | 20 of 24 | 83% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Payton Talbott, citing his dangerous striking and the poor performance of Saaiman in his last loss. He notes that Talbott's takedown defense is a concern, but Saaiman is not a great wrestler. He is undecided on a bet but may place a small wager or include Talbott in a high-risk parlay due to the even odds.
Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, citing his striking volume, power, pressure, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Saaiman's takedown threat is a concern but believes the fight will primarily be on the feet. He predicts Talbott wins by decision, possibly finishing late.
Cody prefers the known commodity in Saaiman, who has proven his toughness and volume. He notes that Talbott is untested and lost the first round against Nick Aguirre. Cody believes Saaiman's forward pressure and volume will earn him rounds, and he likes the plus money on the underdog.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Payton Talbott, citing his physical attributes, durability, and cardio. He notes Talbott is a slow starter but comes on strong in later rounds, while Saaiman is more technically sound. He expects a competitive fight but thinks Talbott's intangibles edge him out.
Talbott is the cleaner striker with good combinations and improving defensive grappling. Saaiman relies on athleticism and power but has been taken down and ground out before. Talbott should keep the fight standing and land cleaner shots, possibly opening up a finish. Saaiman's power is a threat, but Talbott's technical edge should win a decision.
Paul leans toward Talbott based on his reach advantage and high volume output (145 significant strikes in his Contender Series fight). He acknowledges Saaiman's takedown ability but thinks Talbott's striking and familiarity with the Vegas environment give him an edge. Paul sees it as a close fight.
The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman over Payton Talbott, citing Saaiman's kicks and clinch work as key. He thinks Talbott is kickable and that Saaiman's body kicks and low kicks will be effective. He also favors Saaiman's grappling and scrambles. He predicts Saaiman wins a decision, losing the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 83 of 161 | 51% | 92 of 173 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 3:12 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 73 of 175 | 41% | 87 of 192 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 27 of 69 | 39% | 32 of 74 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 28 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:25 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Christian Rodriguez | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 42 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 38 of 87 | 43% | 39 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Rodriguez | 83 of 161 | 51% | 64 of 141 | 18 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 63 of 131 | 13 of 21 | 7 of 9 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 73 of 175 | 41% | 38 of 121 | 14 of 21 | 21 of 33 | 65 of 160 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Rodriguez | 22 of 50 | 44% | 14 of 42 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 27 of 69 | 39% | 12 of 44 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 16 | 23 of 61 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Christian Rodriguez | 19 of 27 | 70% | 17 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 9 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 8 of 19 | 42% | 4 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Christian Rodriguez | 42 of 84 | 50% | 33 of 74 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 72 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Cameron Saaiman | 38 of 87 | 43% | 22 of 65 | 6 of 10 | 10 of 12 | 34 of 80 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-142), Saaiman (+120)
Round 1
A catchweight appetizer gets the blood pumping on the main card, as Saaiman (9-0, 3-0 UFC) puts his undefeated record on the line against Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) at 140 pounds. Rodriguez missed weight by a whopping four pounds and was fined a percentage of his purse. Smith serves as the referee. No glove touch. Rodriguez presses forward and clips Saaiman with a right hand. Saaiman eats a knee, and Rodriguez flurries with punches. Rodriguez connects with a spinning backfist, ducks return fire and secures a takedown. He threatens with an anaconda choke, but Saaiman escapes. They return to their feet. Saaiman finds the mark with a body kick, but he is losing the striking battle at this point. Rodriguez follows a knee to the body with an elbow upstairs. Rodriguez lands another collar-tie knee. Saaiman probes forward with his jab, but the output is not where it needs to be yet. Rodriguez bleeding from a cut near his left eye. Saaiman pieces together a combination, started by his jab. Saaiman misfires on two spinning attacks. He shoots on a takedown in the closing seconds but goes nowhere.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
Round 2
Saaiman delivers an inside leg kicks, then throws a left hook upstairs. Rodriguez commands the center of the cage. Saaiman slams another kick into the Roufusport rep’s tight. Rodriguez narrowly misses a knee and shuts down an attempted takedown. He sprawls on a follow-up takedown, makes another pass at an anaconda choke but surrenders top position. Saaiman sets up in full guard and scrambles to the back. Rodriguez springs a reversal, climbs to the back and secures his position with a body triangle. Punches follow. Saaiman scrambles free, moves to the back and slides off. This has turned into a scramblefest. Rodriguez slips behind Saaiman and settles in a kneeling position before threading the needle with punches. Saaiman rolls into a heel hook, but Rodriguez defends without issue and wheels behind him. They finish on the feet.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rodriquez
Round 3
Rodriguez paws with his jab from the center of the cage. Saaiman lands a low kick, then eats a left hook to the body. Saaiman clinches but releases Rodriguez into open space. A jab from Rodriguez buckles Saaiman’s knees. Saaiman backs him up with punches, connects with an uppercut and clangs a wild overhand left off the side of his head. Rodriguez lands an elbow in close quarters, circles on the outside and steps back into the pocket. Saaiman lets his hands go and throws in an inside leg kick. Rodriguez connects with a one-two. Rodriguez tosses the unbeaten prospect to the mat but allows him to get back to his feet. Saaiman circles on the outside, connects with another leg kick, eats a knee up the middle and answers with punches. He closes with a one-two and a spinning back kick to the body.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Saaiman (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Saaiman (29-28 Rodriguez)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Saaiman (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Christian Rodriguez def. Cameron Saaiman—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Cameron Saaiman as an underdog, believing Christian Rodriguez is overvalued after beating a 'high school kid' (Raul Rosas Jr.) who gassed. He thinks Saaiman's technical striking and potential wrestling could be key, but he's not sure if Saaiman will commit to wrestling. He plans to bet on Saaiman if the line moves favorably, possibly taking plus 3.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Cameron Saaiman by close decision. He likes Saaiman's higher volume striking and cardio, and thinks his grappling is competitive. He sees it as a well-matched fight but leans Saaiman slightly due to his higher ceiling. He will not bet this fight.
Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his proven track record against prospects (beating Joshua Weems, competitive with Jonathan Pearce). He notes Rodriguez's excellent cardio, solid striking, and ability to escape bad positions. Cody contrasts Saaiman's rawness and tendency to get taken down, and believes Rodriguez's high fight IQ and grappling will be the difference.
The host picks Christian Rodriguez confidently, citing his technical advantages in striking, grappling, and Jiu-Jitsu. He notes Rodriguez's clean combinations and discipline, and expects him to exploit Saaiman's technical flaws. He predicts a decision win for Rodriguez.
Paul agrees with Cody, pointing to Saaiman's struggles against wrestlers (e.g., losing to Cody Stamann via takedowns). He notes that Rodriguez is more complete at this stage and has shown he can bully opponents on the ground. Paul expects Rodriguez to mix in takedowns and control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman as an underdog over Christian Rodriguez. He believes Saaiman is better on the feet, more dynamic and versatile, with higher finishing potential. In grappling, he thinks Saaiman is more vicious with ground and pound, while Rodriguez is more positional. He also notes Saaiman is younger, taller, and more active, having taken no damage in his last fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 23 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 1:37 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 23 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 1:37 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Saaiman | 18 of 32 | 56% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 24 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Saaiman | 18 of 32 | 56% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 24 |
| Terrence Mitchell | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Saaiman but with low confidence, calling him a 'parlay buster'. He notes Saaiman's technical striking, forward pressure, and cardio, but warns that undefeated prospects often struggle against experienced fighters like Mitchell, who can grapple and strike. He thinks the odds (-400) are too high and advises against including Saaiman in parlays.
Big Brady picks Cameron Saaiman to win by late first-round finish. He notes that Saaiman is a very good striker with sneaky power and good cardio, but his takedown defense is a concern. He expects Mitchell to have early success with takedowns, but if Mitchell doesn't submit Saaiman in the first round, Saaiman will take over and finish him in the second or third round. He mentions that Mitchell's wins come against low-level competition and that Saaiman is a significant step up.
Cody is confident Saaiman wins, noting Mitchell's competition is from Alaska and he was knocked out quickly by Kai Kara-France. He thinks Saaiman's pressure and brawling style will be too much. He mentions Saaiman's foul issues but expects a finish.
Connor picks Saaiman because Mitchell is a top control specialist from a weak regional scene who got destroyed in his UFC debut. Saaiman is a messy but high-volume fighter who will keep coming and eventually break Mitchell. Mitchell's grappling is raw, and Saaiman's relentless pressure should overwhelm him.
Daniel Levi picks Saaiman, noting that Mitchell comes from a weak regional scene in Alaska and was knocked out quickly by Kai Kara-France on TUF. He praises Saaiman's talent, heart, and improving takedown defense, though he has a tendency to get points deducted for fouls. Levi believes Saaiman is infinitely more talented and battle-tested, and expects him to win, though he is not betting at minus-550.
James sees this as a squash match, with Saaiman levels above Mitchell. He praises Saaiman's pace, pressure, tenacity, and striking ability, noting he throws a lot of strikes and is also a good striker. He predicts Saaiman will get a knockout in round one, easily.
Saaiman is a young, explosive prospect with power and speed, while Mitchell has faced low-level competition and was knocked out quickly in his only UFC stint. Saaiman's physicality and skill gap will be too much; he will find Mitchell's chin and finish by knockout. The under 2.5 rounds is a very confident play.
Paul picks Saaiman, noting Mitchell's record is padded with regional wins. He thinks Mitchell's wrestling won't be enough. He mentions Saaiman's DQ risk but expects a win. He says -550 is relatively safe compared to other big favorites on the card.
The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman to win by third-round TKO. He dismisses Mitchell's striking, noting his grappling is his best asset, but believes Saaiman's top game and elbows will be too much. He also mentions Mitchell's short notice and Saaiman's ability to scramble and sweep.
Zane picks Saaiman because Mitchell is not UFC caliber, coming from a weak regional scene and getting crushed in his debut. Saaiman is a solid rangey kickboxer who fights hard and has good cardio, and he should overwhelm Mitchell with pressure. Even if Mitchell gets a dominant position, Saaiman's relentless work rate will break him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 60 of 148 | 40% | 63 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Leomana Martinez | 1 | 117 of 240 | 48% | 146 of 272 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 28 of 67 | 41% | 28 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Leomana Martinez | 0 | 40 of 85 | 47% | 41 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Leomana Martinez | 1 | 32 of 71 | 45% | 44 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:12 | |
| 3 | Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Leomana Martinez | 0 | 45 of 84 | 53% | 61 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Saaiman | 60 of 148 | 40% | 40 of 125 | 15 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 58 of 144 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Leomana Martinez | 117 of 240 | 48% | 66 of 175 | 23 of 30 | 28 of 35 | 85 of 191 | 1 of 3 | 31 of 46 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Saaiman | 28 of 67 | 41% | 19 of 56 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Leomana Martinez | 40 of 85 | 47% | 14 of 52 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 19 | 40 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cameron Saaiman | 18 of 45 | 40% | 10 of 36 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Leomana Martinez | 32 of 71 | 45% | 22 of 56 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 21 | |
| 3 | Cameron Saaiman | 14 of 36 | 38% | 11 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Leomana Martinez | 45 of 84 | 53% | 30 of 67 | 9 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 25 |
Angelo leans towards Leomana Martinez, citing his raw power, durability, and relentless pressure. He notes that Saaiman was losing his last fight before getting a late knockout and is relatively untested. Angelo is not confident enough to bet but sees value in Martinez as an underdog.
Big Brady picks Cameron Saaiman, highlighting his excellent cardio, pressure, and volume that breaks opponents. He notes Martinez has power but fades as the fight goes on, while Saaiman gets better. He predicts a third-round knockout for Saaiman, though he acknowledges Martinez's power makes it risky.
Cody picks Saaiman, citing his volume and durability. He thinks Martinez has power but low volume and questionable cardio. He expects Saaiman to take over as the fight goes on and win by decision or late TKO.
Connor picks Cameron Saaiman, though he is not very confident. He notes that Saaiman is a marginally better athlete than Martinez and has shown some functional aggression. However, he acknowledges that Martinez is tough, determined, and more comprehensive in his game, and that Saaiman's takedown defense and striking defense are poor. Connor thinks Saaiman's athleticism and willingness to push the pace might be enough.
Jacob picks Cameron Saaiman, citing his speed, pressure, and good scrambles. He notes that Martinez lacks volume and urgency at times, which could be his downfall. However, Jacob is not super high on Saaiman and is leaving him out of parlays due to the risk.
Saaiman is a scrappy fighter with good speed, footwork, and grappling reversals. Martinez has power but a clear ceiling and a recent camp change. Saaiman's skill set should nullify Martinez's threats and he wins by decision or late finish.
Paul picks Saaiman but is not confident at -300. He notes Saaiman looked green in his debut and Martinez has more UFC experience. He won't bet it but expects Saaiman to get the job done.
The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman, praising his versatility in stand-up, clinch, and grappling. He notes Martinez is limited and that Saaiman has more ways to win, predicting a 29-28 decision.
Zane picks Leomana Martinez, reasoning that Martinez is a more complete martial artist who will pressure Saaiman and find good positions. He notes that Saaiman is reckless and disorganized, while Martinez is tough and will do a little bit of everything. Zane thinks Martinez's experience and composure will allow him to win a messy fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 53 of 89 | 59% | 105 of 149 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 6 | 6:29 |
| Steven Koslow | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 20 of 42 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 | 2 | 4:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 2:34 |
| Steven Koslow | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 7 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 32 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:19 |
| Steven Koslow | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 1 | 2:09 | |
| 3 | Cameron Saaiman | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 53 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 2:36 |
| Steven Koslow | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Saaiman | 53 of 89 | 59% | 38 of 69 | 9 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 50 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 28 |
| Steven Koslow | 11 of 29 | 37% | 8 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cameron Saaiman | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Steven Koslow | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | |
| 2 | Cameron Saaiman | 20 of 31 | 64% | 11 of 21 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 9 |
| Steven Koslow | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cameron Saaiman | 29 of 49 | 59% | 25 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 18 |
| Steven Koslow | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Saaiman because he believes the gap in striking is wider than the gap in grappling. He notes that Koslow is an aggressive grappler but his striking is not great, while Saaiman is a technical striker who can also grapple. However, he strongly advises against betting on this fight due to both fighters being UFC debutants with only six fights each, calling it a 50-50 fight.
Big Brady picks Cameron Saaiman to win, but with low confidence due to limited tape on both fighters. He notes Saaiman has power and finishing ability, but questions his takedown defense and getup game against Koslow's submission threat. He expects Koslow to have early success with takedowns, but thinks Saaiman will eventually land a knockout as the fight progresses.
Cody picks Saaiman, citing his performance on Contender Series where he beat an undefeated opponent. He notes Saaiman's cardio, strength, and pressure. He thinks Koslow is a one-dimensional submission specialist who will struggle if he can't get the fight to the ground. He expects Saaiman to win by TKO inside the distance.
Daniel Levi picks Steven Koslow as a slight underdog lean, but admits he has very little information on either fighter. He likes Koslow's slick grappling (mounted triangle, back takes) and training at Fusion XL. He notes Saaiman has fought slightly better competition but still low-level. Levi says this is a 'dog or pass' situation and he'll go with the plus money, but it's not a confident play. He suggests taking a small unit bet or just watching.
Lock mentions he took a 0.3 unit shot on Koslow's moneyline because he thinks the line is a bit wide. He believes Koslow is strong in areas where Saaiman has shown struggles in the past, and that the unknown factor could make Koslow the next big prospect. He sees it as a buy-low opportunity at 30 cents on PredictionStrike.
Paul picks Saaiman, noting he is a young prospect with a bright future. He thinks Koslow is a one-dimensional grappler and that Saaiman's takedown defense and cardio will be key. He suggests Saaiman inside the distance as a prop.
The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman over Steven Koslow, noting that Koslow is stepping in on short notice and tends to go for early submissions, which Saaiman can survive. He believes Saaiman is composed and experienced enough to weather the early storm and come back to win a 29-28 decision, losing the first round but taking the second and third.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Payton Talbott, citing his dangerous striking and the poor performance of Saaiman in his last loss. He notes that Talbott's takedown defense is a concern, but Saaiman is not a great wrestler. He is undecided on a bet but may place a small wager or include Talbott in a high-risk parlay due to the even odds.
Big Brady picks Payton Talbott, citing his striking volume, power, pressure, cardio, and durability advantages. He notes Saaiman's takedown threat is a concern but believes the fight will primarily be on the feet. He predicts Talbott wins by decision, possibly finishing late.
Cody prefers the known commodity in Saaiman, who has proven his toughness and volume. He notes that Talbott is untested and lost the first round against Nick Aguirre. Cody believes Saaiman's forward pressure and volume will earn him rounds, and he likes the plus money on the underdog.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Payton Talbott, citing his physical attributes, durability, and cardio. He notes Talbott is a slow starter but comes on strong in later rounds, while Saaiman is more technically sound. He expects a competitive fight but thinks Talbott's intangibles edge him out.
Talbott is the cleaner striker with good combinations and improving defensive grappling. Saaiman relies on athleticism and power but has been taken down and ground out before. Talbott should keep the fight standing and land cleaner shots, possibly opening up a finish. Saaiman's power is a threat, but Talbott's technical edge should win a decision.
Paul leans toward Talbott based on his reach advantage and high volume output (145 significant strikes in his Contender Series fight). He acknowledges Saaiman's takedown ability but thinks Talbott's striking and familiarity with the Vegas environment give him an edge. Paul sees it as a close fight.
The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman over Payton Talbott, citing Saaiman's kicks and clinch work as key. He thinks Talbott is kickable and that Saaiman's body kicks and low kicks will be effective. He also favors Saaiman's grappling and scrambles. He predicts Saaiman wins a decision, losing the third round.
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