UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 30
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 8"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Daria Zhelezniakova
4.75 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
2.83 SApM
68.0% Str. Def.
0.44 TD Avg
100.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Montse Rendon
2.95 SLpM
27.0% Str. Acc.
3.65 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.91 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Daria Zhelezniakova
Moneyline
BetWay -220
KO/TKO
BetRivers +390
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
FanDuel +125
Montse Rendon
Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2600
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
DraftKings +275
Daria Zhelezniakova - Fight History
LOSS vs Melissa Croden
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Croden 0 69 of 153 45% 92 of 185 4 of 8 50% 1 0 5:12
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 41 of 118 34% 81 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Croden 0 15 of 46 32% 15 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:16
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 14 of 40 35% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Melissa Croden 0 27 of 56 48% 31 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:39
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 14 of 45 31% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Melissa Croden 0 27 of 51 52% 46 of 78 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:17
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 13 of 33 39% 39 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Croden 69 of 153 45% 51 of 121 12 of 24 6 of 8 43 of 115 17 of 25 9 of 13
Daria Zhelezniakova 41 of 118 34% 30 of 100 7 of 14 4 of 4 35 of 106 6 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Croden 15 of 46 32% 9 of 35 4 of 8 2 of 3 13 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova 14 of 40 35% 9 of 31 2 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 36 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Melissa Croden 27 of 56 48% 21 of 44 2 of 7 4 of 5 20 of 43 7 of 13 0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova 14 of 45 31% 9 of 37 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 39 2 of 6 0 of 0
3 Melissa Croden 27 of 51 52% 21 of 42 6 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 28 8 of 10 9 of 13
Daria Zhelezniakova 13 of 33 39% 12 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melissa Croden vs. Darya Zhelezniakova
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Croden (-160); Zheleznyakova (+130)

Round 1
With a 100% finish rate still in her pocket, Alberta native Croden (7-3, 1-1 UFC)—quick note to all those who watched the Shillan & Duffy preview show for this one and thought this fight card was going down in the province of Alberta: tonight’s action is in southern Manitoba, just north of the shared border of North Dakota and Minnesota, two provinces to the right of Alberta. Croden will still be the favored athlete in the building of the two, as she faces off Russian striker Zheleznyakova (10-2, 2-1 UFC). The two bantamweights come to blows with referee Jerin Valel calling the shots, and they touch ‘em up before engaging.
It is all about the jab in the early going for the two bantamweights, with the two standing relatively the same size and presenting a similar fist-first style. Jabs lead to follow-ups, which leads to an unexpected trading of leather in the first 30 seconds. Croden thinks twice about throwing caution to the wind to just brawl and resets to work her way forward at her own pace. Zheleznyakova chops at her foe’s leg with a hefty kick and circles away from the power from the Canadian, dodging a head kick and stepping in to strike. Croden drives her away with a quick one-two, and Zheleznyakova still manages to get in her face with a single fist. They crash together and end up clinched, trading knees until they decide against doing this any further. It is not a mirror match, but it is fairly close to that. One after the other, they slug one another in the chops. Croden throws a hard right hand, takes one right back, and is amped up and tries to force “Iron Lady” into a brawl. Zheleznyakova does not oblige her, instead strafing to either side.
Zheleznyakova kicks low to swing high, and she moves all the way around the cage to time her way in with a short flurry. Zheleznyakova gets a front kick through the guard, and when she engages further, Croden ties her up to grapple. Croden bullies the Russian to the fencing, looking perhaps for a body lock. Zheleznyakova keeps circling away to her right, away from Croden’s power, and this includes breaking out of a clinch. Zheleznyakova checks a kick to sling a one-two, and she lets a head kick fly past her harmlessly. Zheleznyakova steps forward to bloody Croden’s nose with a one-two, and her movement is flustering the Canadian. Zheleznyakova tries to engage again in a quick blitz, and Croden stonewalls her and shoves her back. The deliberately paced round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova

Round 2
Zheleznyakova races out of her corner to engage as the second round kicks off, and she does so right into the fists of her waiting adversary. Croden welcomes this so she can score effectively, forcing Zheleznyakova to retreat very soon after she starts trading. Croden whiffs on four fast punches because Zheleznyakova is already out of range, and she is stuck chasing while blood leaks from her nose. Zheleznyakova keeps moving, racking up plenty of steps while avoiding the worst of what flies her way time and again. Croden walks into the occasional jab from the Russian, who is largely playing an avoidance-first game that may not be the most aesthetically pleasing from a “just bleed” perspective. Nearly a minute goes by without a significant strike landing, and then they crash together and drill one another in the face with a heavy punch. Zheleznyakova tries to put three after it, and Croden has no answers while her face is starting to transform because of the impact of the shots she is absorbing.
Croden runs after the Russian, chasing her around the cage to try to punch her. She does not let Zheleznyakova off the hook, busting her nose open in the midst of her punch salvos. Zheleznyakova turns tail and runs away, forcing Croden to eventually slow Zheleznyakova down by tying her up. Croden looks for a body lock and a trip takedown, but Zheleznyakova is able to stay on her feet. Zheleznyakova breaks free, and she beans the Canadian with a right hand flush on the temple. Both beaks are leaking, and Croden pays it no mind as she rushes forward to attack. Croden nails her foe with two elbows, and Zheleznyakova tries to run away but is trapped. The Russian grabs the fence to prevent a takedown, with Valel screaming at her to knock that off. On her second effort, Croden throws her down and knees her in the face and thigh on the way back up. Croden leans on her opponent, sneaking in elbows. Zheleznyakova pushes her back with her fists, so Croden slaps her in the face with the instep of her foot as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Croden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Croden

Round 3
Croden greets her opponent with raised arms to hug her, and then the last round begins. Zheleznyakova pumps out a one-two that shakes Croden up and instantly re-bloodies her nose again, and she sits in the pocket to jack her in the jaw with a left before circling away. Zheleznyakova bounces her way forward behind her jab, slipping back to dodge every counter. Croden lumbers ahead slinging a left hook, and she shells up to block a one-two but is nailed with three more punches when she tries to clinch. Zheleznyakova breaks off and turns to run and reset on her own terms, but Croden catches up with her and clinches her. Croden stays tight until Zheleznyakova shoves her away and pins her down with a one-two. Zheleznyakova swipes out with subsequent hooks when Croden follows her recklessly, but it is a trap for the Canadian. Croden ducks down to surprise Zheleznyakova with a tackling takedown, and Zheleznyakova grabs the fence to improve her position and stand back up while Croden’s team bellows about the uncalled foul.
In the meantime, Croden starts to hook up a standing arm-triangle choke, and Zheleznyakova tugs with both hands on the fencing to take some of the leverage out of it. Croden topples over with the choke to put Zheleznyakova flat on her back, and she releases the sub to start beating the Russian down with left hands and a questionable knee while Zheleznyakova was standing. Valel calls for a replay due to the strike, and Croden continues pressuring the increasingly bloodied Zheleznyakova in a vicious clinch exchange. Croden frames off with elbows and occasionally slashes them out to damage her opponent, and Zheleznyakova breaks off. Croden runs towards her and tackles her to the floor, climbing directly in mount so she can bash Zheleznyakova with elbows. Zheleznyakova sits up to try to turn things around but only gives her back up. Croden unloads with a final barrage of elbows and fists, but time runs out before she can secure the stoppage she was seeking.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Croden (29-28 Croden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Croden (29-28 Croden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Croden (29-28 Croden)

The Official Result
Melissa Croden def. Darya Zheleznyakova via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

Angelo picks Melissa Croden but is cautious, acknowledging Daria is better than given credit for. He notes Melissa is the more technical striker and physically stronger, with a grappling plan B. He warns that Daria has power and could cause problems if Melissa gets tagged.

"I'm going to pick Melissa here, but I would be very careful because I think Daria is a lot better than people are giving her credit for."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

Big Brady picks Melissa Croden, emphasizing her nasty top game and clinch work. He criticizes Daria Zhelezniakova's poor ground game and takedown defense, noting she was submitted by Eileen Perez and TKO'd by Mullins. Brady believes if Croden takes the fight to the ground, she will finish with ground and pound, predicting a second-round TKO.

second round TKO
"Give me Melissa Croden to win. I'll take Melissa Croden to win by second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

Cody picks Melissa Croden, citing her ability to mix in takedowns and the Canadian crowd support. He notes that both fighters are similar but Croden may edge it with wrestling and home advantage. He expects a close decision.

split decision prop
"I got Croin, but it's another fight that I would not be surprised to hear judge one scores it, judge two scores it, and then the judge three is the deciding factor."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Croden

Connor picks Croden because she is more composed and determined than Zhelezniakova, who is a steady pot-shotter without the footwork or wrestling defense to stop a determined opponent. He notes that Croden can walk into strikes but isn't deterred, and her physicality should overwhelm Zhelezniakova if she fights smart.

Croden opened at -150, now -153; Zhelezniakova opened at +130, now +133
"Croton running at her for takedowns might work. Probably."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

James picks Melissa Croden to win via round three TKO. He expects Croden to weather early storms and take over late with her pressure and wrestling. He notes Zhelezniakova's camp issues and poor ground game.

"Melissa Cronin to win in round three is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

The host expects Croden to be competitive in the striking but thinks she will clinch up, take the fight to the ground, and look for a submission. He highlights Croden's physicality and BJJ brown belt, and believes Zhelezniakova struggles against heavy grapplers. He recommends a sprinkle on the submission prop at plus 625.

Croden by submission at +625
"I think it's just a matter of time before Croden gets to a spot where she can threaten with the submission, which currently as of right now on BetOnline sits around plus 625."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Croden

Paul also leans towards Croden, expecting a close decision. He notes that Daria tends to bleed and that Croden may benefit from the judges. He likes the split decision prop.

split decision prop
"Big- time splitty possibilities fight ends in split decision plus 500. Croin by split or majority decision plus 950."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Croden

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Croden is like a less skilled version of Jasmine Jasudavicius but still knows how to implement her game. He points out that Zhelezniakova is a steady pot-shotter who lacks the tools to prevent a determined opponent from taking her out of her game, and Croden's physicality should be enough.

Croden opened at -150, now -153; Zhelezniakova opened at +130, now +133
"Croton running at her for takedowns might work. Probably."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Melissa Mullins 0 99 of 223 44% 103 of 228 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 64 of 148 43% 77 of 165 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Melissa Mullins 0 44 of 95 46% 46 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 26 of 68 38% 33 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
2 Melissa Mullins 0 35 of 65 53% 35 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 20 of 40 50% 25 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:08
3 Melissa Mullins 0 20 of 63 31% 22 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 18 of 40 45% 19 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Melissa Mullins 99 of 223 44% 67 of 172 32 of 51 0 of 0 98 of 220 1 of 3 0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova 64 of 148 43% 43 of 124 12 of 14 9 of 10 61 of 144 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Melissa Mullins 44 of 95 46% 37 of 81 7 of 14 0 of 0 43 of 93 1 of 2 0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova 26 of 68 38% 21 of 63 3 of 3 2 of 2 26 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Melissa Mullins 35 of 65 53% 19 of 45 16 of 20 0 of 0 35 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova 20 of 40 50% 14 of 33 3 of 3 3 of 4 20 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Melissa Mullins 20 of 63 31% 11 of 46 9 of 17 0 of 0 20 of 62 0 of 1 0 of 0
Daria Zhelezniakova 18 of 40 45% 8 of 28 6 of 8 4 of 4 15 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melissa Mullins vs. Darya Zheleznyakova
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mullins (-278), Zheleznyakova (+225)

Round 1
With their bout already hinted at in the previous match, Mullins (7-1, 2-1 UFC) and Zheleznyakova (9-2, 1-1 UFC) will run back a match from Ares 9 in 2022 where Mullins pulled off the last-second TKO that some referees might have let go to the bell. Any doubt is about to be removed from the equation as these two bantamweights rematch, and referee Rich Mitchell is on top of the action. Gloves are quickly touched, but Zheleznyakova wants to get her hands on her opponent and does just that immediately. The Russian goes to the head and body, and she beats Mullins to the punch with a straight right hand when splitting apart. Zheleznyakova stings Mullins with a combination, and Mullins’ face is red and taking shots in a hurry. Mullins shoots desperately after getting hurt, and Zheleznyakova shoves her away and continues punching her in the face. Zheleznyakova disengages and finds her way forward with two looping hooks. Mullins catches Zheleznyakova on her way in with a right hand that turns Zheleznyakova’s nose red, but Mullins’ whole face is already crimson. Zheleznyakova swings a right hand that buzzes the jaw, and she goes to the body after to keep things flowing. Mullins pushes her away with a front kick, and she drills Zheleznyakova with a left hand but gets caught on the way back. Both women show facial damage after less than half a round, and Mullins stuns her opponent with a crisp right hand. Mullins stands in the pocket and nails Zheleznyakova with an uppercut, backing her opponent up and rifling off a left hand. Zheleznyakova circles and swings hard, knocking Mullins’ head around but not discouraging her from entering. Three more punches from Zheleznyakova connect clean on the Brit’s jaw, which still holds up under fire. Mullins meanders forward, bounding away from a few punches but sitting down on her right hand. Zheleznyakova misses on a few blitzes, and Mullins backs her off with a clean jab. Mullins puts three hands on her foe, dislodging Zheleznyakova’s gumshield. Mitchell grabs it and hands it back to the women, who take a moment to figure out who lost it. Zheleznyakova replaces it, and Mullins knocks it right back out on the restart. Mullins bullies her opponent to the floor, standing in half guard and sitting down into mount. Mullins snatches up an armbar in a moment, rolling over to lock it down. Zheleznyakova stays tight to stop the submission from hyperextending her limb, making it to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mullins
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mullins
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mullins

Round 2
The women tap their gloves together, and they proceed to trade jabs. Mullins pushes out a front kick to the ribs, staying out of range from the Russian’s long punches. Mullins stays in the center of the cage, hopping out of the way of the offense of her foe and clipping Zheleznyakova with a right hand. The right hand causes immediate damage, as Zheleznyakova’s left eye starts swelling up fast. Zheleznyakova tries to pay her back with an overhand right, but it is not nearly as powerful. Mullins flicks out her jab, and she hammers the front leg with a kick. Zheleznyakova crashes in swinging, and Mullins stands her ground and pops her with an overhand right. When Mullins goes to the lead leg again, she stumbles back and inadvertently avoids the counters soaring past her. They jab at one another, and Mullins eventually follows one with a two. Zheleznyakova swings wide a few times, her mouth wide open, and she finds her bearings and tags Mullins with a trio of punches. Zheleznyakova reaches out with a right hand and follows with a left on the jaw, and she backs Mullins off with a few punches and appears to frazzle Mullins with a body shot, who bends over. Zheleznyakova springs into action, spraying punches every which way including some towards Mullins. As Zheleznyakova lays into her opponent, Mullins grits her teeth and tackles the Russian to the mat. Zheleznyakova keeps her arms wrapped around Mullins to shut down any offense, and Mullins explodes with 15 seconds left to get into top position. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova

Round 3
The bantamweights touch ‘em up as they reach the last round, and jabs from both sides come again to start off. Zheleznyakova does not bite on a faked takedown effort, and she swings with a left hook but misses the mark. Zheleznyakova strings four punches together, rattling around her rival’s head, and she does not eat any counter as Mullins’ offense dwindles. Zheleznyakova jabs the body and goes upstairs with a right hand, and Mullins sees another one of those combos coming and parries it. Zheleznyakova mixes it up with a right to the body and a left to the dome, and Mullins defends by keeping her elbow up hoping that the Russian will walk into it. Mullins kicks her opponent’s front leg a single time, with Zheleznyakova appearing to have a second wind as she is the one pushing the pace, her face a swollen and busted mess. Mullins’ visage is not any better, and Zheleznyakova pins two punches on it to make it worse. The Brit connects with a body kick and then targets the sternum with the ball of her foot, and jumps to anticipate a strike that does not come. The jabs open up Mullins’ nose, which might be leaking from both nostrils. Mullins drops down for a single, and Zheleznyakova turns to the side and is dragged back down. Zheleznyakova defends a takedown by grabbing the fence, and Mitchell yells at her. The foul saving her from going down, she is able to bound off her knees instead and keep her back to the fence. Zheleznyakova pushes her away with 45 seconds to spare, and she gets right in Mullins’ face with her jabs and twos. The two ladies trade it out until the final horn, and they embrace after 15 minutes of bloody combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova (29-28 Zheleznyakova)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mullins (29-28 Mullins)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mullins (29-28 Mullins)

The Official Result
Darya Zheleznyakova def. Melissa Mullins via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Angelo picks Melissa Mullins, but with caveats. He notes that Melissa is not great but should win, and that Daria has questionable takedown defense. He mentions that Melissa won their first fight by submission after losing on the feet, but both have evolved. He trusts Melissa more due to recent activity, but acknowledges Daria's striking power and the risk of a finish.

Mentions $9,000 price point as tricky; prefers Melissa over Irina due to recency.
"I am picking her to win. She's fighting Daria. I'm not even going to attempt the last name."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Big Brady picks Melissa Mullins, noting her vicious ground and pound and grappling advantage. He acknowledges that Zheleznyakova was winning the first fight on the feet before Mullins got a late takedown and TKO. He worries about Mullins getting hit but thinks one takedown could be enough. He predicts Mullins wins by second-round TKO, as she prefers TKOs over submissions.

second round TKO
"I like Mullins here. I'll say second round TKO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

The host notes this is a rematch from November 2023 where Mullins battered Zheleznyakova from top position and got a first-round stoppage. He doesn't see this fight going any differently and expects Mullins to get a TKO within two rounds.

"This is a rematch of a fight that took place back in November of 2023 where Mullins was able to batter Zelelesnikokova from top position and get the first round stoppage. I don't see this fight going any different and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Mullins

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Mullins, citing her aggressive pace and ground-and-pound. He criticizes Daria Zheleznyakova's lack of skill and notes her striking on the back foot is not sustainable. He predicts a second or third round TKO via ground-and-pound for Mullins.

Mullins wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Melissa Mullins. I think her ground and pound's really good. So I think we will see a second or third round TKO to ground and pound from Melissa Mullins here."
LOSS vs Ailín Pérez
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 3:52 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ailín Pérez 0 7 of 12 58% 22 of 27 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:42
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 5 of 12 41% 12 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ailín Pérez 0 7 of 12 58% 22 of 27 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:42
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 5 of 12 41% 12 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ailín Pérez 7 of 12 58% 5 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 4 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3
Daria Zhelezniakova 5 of 12 41% 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ailín Pérez 7 of 12 58% 5 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 4 3 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 3
Daria Zhelezniakova 5 of 12 41% 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ailin Perez (136.5: Missed Weight) vs. Darya Zheleznyakova

Round 1
In a fight that some have posited should not be happening today, Perez (10-2, 3-1 UFC) appears to be in much better shape than she was on Friday. The Argentinian still did miss weight as she cut down to 136.5 pounds, and her tremors and wobbly nature appear to be a thing of the past. Her team says the shakes were a ruse, but is Perez that good of an actor? Happy to take 20% of her foe’s purse, Zheleznyakova (9-1, 1-0 UFC) would also like to cash a second check and further work her way up the women’s bantamweight ladder. There is no glove touch offered as this has developed into a chippy fight, and referee Herb Dean watches on. After a fair amount of circling, Perez eventually engages with a takedown shot. Zheleznyakova pushes her away, and they resume their staring contest. Zheleznyakova decides she would like to try the grappling game, and she gets Perez down and lowers herself to side control. Zheleznyakova bails on the position for some reason and stands, and she has to quickly defend a shot from the Argentinian. Zheleznyakova reaches her opponent with a right hand, and she stuff another try and connects with another right hook. Perez crashes the pocket and tackles Zheleznyakova to the mat with a body lock takedown, where she scrambles her way all the way to full mount. Perez opens up with a few punches as she gets dragged back to half guard, and she starts setting up an arm-triangle choke. Perez lowers her body weight down to pressure the Russian’s throat, and Zheleznyakova’s face transforms to a brilliant shade of red in a hurry. Before she even moves to side control or mount, Perez manages to elicit the tap she was seeking. Dean officially calls a halt to the match, and when Zheleznyakova stands, Perez twerks in her face. The fans don’t know what to think, but she does not care, as her celebration dance continues.

The Official Result
Ailin Perez def. Darya Zheleznyakova R1 3:52 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ailín Pérez

Angelo picks Ailín Pérez confidently. He highlights her relentless forward pressure and takedowns, and notes that Daria's takedown defense is just okay. He expects Pérez to control the fight with wrestling and cardio, though he acknowledges Daria won a decision despite being taken down multiple times in her last fight. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"Ailín Pérez should win this fight... the forward pressure, the takedowns... over two and a half should be good as well."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ailín Pérez

Big Brady picks Ailín Pérez by decision, citing her wrestling advantage (5 takedowns per 15 minutes) against Zhelezniakova's 50% takedown defense. He notes Pérez often has sketchy moments in fights but thinks she can win the first two rounds. He expects a decision win, possibly losing the third round.

Pérez by decision
"Perez uh Perez probably by decision here the third round it could get sketchy it seems like you know third rounds with Perez they do get sketchy quite a bit but as long as she can at least win those …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Cody picks Zhelezniakova as an underdog, citing the hometown advantage and Pérez's tendency to do just enough to win without finishing. He notes that Pérez's takedowns often lead to little damage, and the judges may favor the local fighter in close rounds. Zhelezniakova is a striker who can outland Pérez on the feet.

"Underdog for me here as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Connor agrees, pointing out that Pérez's wins have come against low-level competition and that she almost lost to Jocelyn Edwards. He thinks the odds are too wide in Pérez's favor and that Zhelezniakova is a bigger athlete who doesn't constantly do stuff that doesn't work.

"I don't see this as like any kind of slam dunk for Perez at all."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ailín Pérez

Daniel Vreeland picks Ailín Pérez to win. He thinks Pérez's wrestling will dominate, as she has landed many takedowns in recent fights. He notes Zhelezniakova has poor takedown defense and has been controlled on the ground. He expects Pérez to win by decision or ground-and-pound, but is not interested in the price.

"Perez has massive massive wrestling upside man like it's crazy she's gonna take her down pretty easily"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ailín Pérez

JP picks Ailín Pérez but is hesitant because the line is -275, which he thinks is too big for a close fight. He compares Zhelezniakova to Daria Dudova, who was a good striker but faded when pressured. He thinks Pérez's pressure and clinch work will win her the decision.

"I'm gonna pick Eileen Perez but with the line with it as it is minus 275 not a huge fan that's that's pretty big for this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ailín Pérez

Paul initially picks Pérez due to her takedown threat, but after discussion, he switches to Zhelezniakova citing the CF model and hometown cooking. He notes that Pérez doesn't do enough with takedowns and that the fight could be close, favoring the local fighter.

"I'm switching my pick CF do model... cornal is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ailín Pérez

The MMA Guru picks Ailín Pérez over Daria Zhelezniakova, citing Pérez's size and strength, particularly her lower body power. He notes that Zhelezniakova has good striking but struggles with grappling, and Pérez has strong takedown entries. He expects Pérez to win via grappling.

"I'm going to go with aen Perez being big strong having good entries on takedowns and uh doing work from there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Zane thinks Zhelezniakova is a bigger athlete with a functional game she sticks to, while Pérez is too small and relies on a grappling style that may not work against better fighters. He notes that Pérez has been winning due to commitment to a simple game, but Zhelezniakova will have opportunities to tag her and force ugly shots.

"Zhelezhnikov seems like it's just way bigger, has a functional game she sticks to. That's enough."
WIN vs Montse Rendon
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 25 of 147 17% 28 of 156 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:24
Montse Rendon 0 57 of 150 38% 73 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daria Zhelezniakova 0 6 of 37 16% 7 of 38 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:23
Montse Rendon 0 10 of 32 31% 18 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daria Zhelezniakova 0 14 of 66 21% 16 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Montse Rendon 0 24 of 72 33% 24 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daria Zhelezniakova 0 5 of 44 11% 5 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:10
Montse Rendon 0 23 of 46 50% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daria Zhelezniakova 25 of 147 17% 19 of 134 4 of 11 2 of 2 25 of 137 0 of 8 0 of 2
Montse Rendon 57 of 150 38% 36 of 125 21 of 25 0 of 0 51 of 144 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daria Zhelezniakova 6 of 37 16% 3 of 33 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 35 0 of 2 0 of 0
Montse Rendon 10 of 32 31% 7 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Daria Zhelezniakova 14 of 66 21% 12 of 61 1 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 62 0 of 2 0 of 2
Montse Rendon 24 of 72 33% 16 of 62 8 of 10 0 of 0 24 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daria Zhelezniakova 5 of 44 11% 4 of 40 1 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 40 0 of 4 0 of 0
Montse Rendon 23 of 46 50% 13 of 34 10 of 12 0 of 0 19 of 42 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Montserrat Rendon vs. Dariya Zheleznyakova
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zheleznykova (-218), Rendon (+180)

Round 1
The largest betting favorite of the evening comes in this preliminary women’s bantamweight tilt. Heavy underdog Rendon (6-0, 1-0 UFC) will try to land an upset again powerful Russian Zheleznyakova (8-1, 0-0 UFC), with the latter coming in around -250 depending on the book. Whether the lines can be trusted or if all bets are off, they will have 15 minutes to figure it out. Joining them in the cage will be referee Jason Herzog, who sits back as Zheleznyakova cruises forward ready to throw down. The Russian tags her unbeaten opponent in the mouth with an overhand right, and she backs her off with a pair of punches to follow. Rendon throws back but is out of range, as Zheleznyakova zips in and out to find her own shots. Zheleznyakova connects with a powerful right hand, and Rendon counters inaccurately. Rendon sits down on a right hand after eating a one-two, and she presses forward and takes Zheleznyakova down to the mat with a body lock. Zheleznyakova scoots her way to put her back to the wall, and she wall-walks and grabs the fence to do so. Rendon presses hard on her and searches for a mat return with various trips, and she eats a knee right on the solar plexus that stands her up momentarily. Rendon tries with all her might to secure another body lock takedown, but Zheleznyakova breaks free and jabs her in the face. Zheleznyakova sticks and moves as Rendon comes up shy of the mark with an overhand right, and she is in and out to land another right. Rendon scores at the end of a right hand, and she races forward as Zheleznyakova circles away. Zheleznyakova aims a right to the ribs and meets a blitzing Rendon with a knee to the sternum, shutting down Rendon’s takedown effort. Zheleznyakova overswings on a right hand, leading Rendon to snag hold of her and push her to the fence. Rendon completes the outside trip with her body lock and places Zheleznyakova flat on her back. Rendon lands in half guard, and she hangs on until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova

Round 2
Zheleznyakova starts off the second round aggressively, with several punches down the middle. Rendon lets fly her own strikes but is out of range again, as Zheleznyakova keeps her at the end of her punches and knocks her back with a long left hand and a body kick. Zheleznyakova lands a right hand and shuts down a takedown effort with a pair of punches. Rendon scores straight punches that bust open a cut on the Russian’s nose. Rendon pushes forward to pursue a takedown, and she fails to get it and eats a few punches on the nose. Zheleznyakova decides to start slugging it out, her nose leaking red down her face. Zheleznyakova surges forward to land a few, and Rendon has found her home with her power punches. Zheleznyakova spins with a strike and is stopped with a right hand, and Rendon clips her again as she tries to spin. Rendon crashes the pocket in pursuit of a takedown, and Zheleznyakova grabs the fence and has her hand slapped. The close round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rendon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rendon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rendon

Round 3
Zheleznyakova is cleared to compete in the last round, and they proceed to swing it out inaccurately. Zheleznyakova lobs a big left hand and brushes past the cheek, and she knocks Rendon back with a jab. Rendon crowds her but does not tie her up, instead backing up when she cannot find the right angle for a takedown. Zheleznyakova snaps the head back with a jab, and aims a right hand to the body and just misses a left over the top. Rendon sprints at her recklessly, dodging a strike and tying Zheleznyakova up to go after some kind of awkward takedown. Zheleznyakova shuts it all down and escapes out the side, and she pops out her jab to decent effect. When settling down with a big right hand, she gets backed off, but lands on the chest. Zheleznyakova goes high with a left and low with a right, and she snipes a charging Rendon with shots as Rendon runs at her. Rendon looks for a body lock and a trip, and she gets Zheleznyakova down to a knee for a moment before Zheleznyakova gets right back up. Rendon wrenches her down to a knee again, and she keeps her body weight pressed on the Russian to nullify any other offense. Zheleznyakova aims knees to the body as she tries to escape the clinch, and Rendon hooks her legs between her opponent’s. Zheleznyakova breaks free and lands a jab and a spinning back fist. Zheleznyakova spins with another back fist, and when that misses, she follows with a left that nails the unbeaten fighter. Rendon spins back with a fist that lands, and Zheleznyakova spins two more times to end the bantamweight bout.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova (29-28 Zheleznyakova)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova (29-28 Zheleznyakova)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova (29-28 Zheleznyakova)

The Official Result
Dariya Zheleznyakova def. Montserrat Rendon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

Angelo picks Montse Rendon as a very low confidence pick, citing her ground game as the deciding factor. He notes that Rendon can weather the storm, move forward, and grind out a win on the ground, similar to her win over Tamires Vidal. He sees a wide skill gap on the ground favoring Rendon, but acknowledges Daria's striking power. He considers a plus 3.5 round bet if the odds are favorable.

plus 3.5 round bet if odds are favorable
"I'm going to lean towards the wider skill gap on the ground I'm going to pick the ground specialist in monserat randone insanely low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Big Brady picks Daria Zhelezniakova, impressed by her striking, hand speed, and power. He notes her takedown defense is a potential hole but believes she can win enough minutes on the feet. He mentions that judges are scoring damage over control time, which favors Zhelezniakova if Rendon takes her down but does nothing. He predicts a decision win.

"I'm more on the zelenova side I was really impressed with their striking here I think she should be able to win enough minutes on the feet to to win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Cody picks Zhelezniakova, citing her striking advantage and power. He notes that Rendon is a grappler who may struggle to get takedowns and hold position. Cody acknowledges the price is high but believes Zhelezniakova's skills on the feet will carry her.

"Daria will be the pick for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Daniel Vreeland picks Daria Zhelezniakova by decision, praising her striking speed and technique. He notes Rendon's wrestling is limited to catching kicks and that Zhelezniakova can box her up. He expects Zhelezniakova to win all three rounds on the feet.

Zhelezniakova by decision
"give me zeles nikova by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

Rendon has solid basics, good physicality, and a BJJ brown belt. She showed improvement in her last fight by mixing in takedowns. Zhelezniakova is a UFC newcomer with questionable takedown defense and doesn't do anything exceptionally well. Rendon's strength and one-two down the pipe could be the difference. However, the line may move, and Rendon is only a lean at current odds.

Would consider if Rendon gets back to +200
"I have to lean with randone here now I'm not going to get to the betting window as of yet... if renon gets back up to plus 200... maybe I'll be forced to take another shot on her here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Paul picks Zhelezniakova but notes the line has moved too much. He thinks her striking and improved takedown defense will be enough. Paul expects a decision win for Zhelezniakova.

"I am going to take Daria but I can fully admit this price tag just doesn't seem very fitting."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

The MMA Guru picks Daria Zhelezniakova over Montse Rendon, believing she is a much better striker. He references the Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian fight to argue that control time doesn't matter to judges; damage does. He thinks Zhelezniakova will land more shots and win on damage, even if she ends up on bottom. He notes her loss to Melissa Mullins but sees her as the younger, more technical fighter.

"I am betting on zelen uh zeles nikova to uh land the better shots I think she's a way better Striker"
Montse Rendon - Fight History
Submission R1 2:07 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Beatriz Mesquita 0 18 of 27 66% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:46
Montse Rendon 0 0 of 8 0% 0 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Beatriz Mesquita 0 18 of 27 66% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:46
Montse Rendon 0 0 of 8 0% 0 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Beatriz Mesquita 18 of 27 66% 16 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 6 0 of 1 12 of 20
Montse Rendon 0 of 8 0% 0 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Beatriz Mesquita 18 of 27 66% 16 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 6 0 of 1 12 of 20
Montse Rendon 0 of 8 0% 0 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Beatriz Mesquita vs. Montserrat Rendon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mesquita (-550); Rendon (+400)

Round 1
Eric McMahon is the referee. Rendon is stumbled by a right and Mesquita goes on the attack, powering her her way into top position and unloading with ground and pound. Rendon scrambles back up only to be ground again. Mesquita gets full mount, where she’s dropping punches and elbows. Mesquita keeps her composure in the dominant position, picking her spots to land punches, hammerfists and elbows. Mesquita remains heavy on top, and she drops a heavy elbow, prompting Rendon to give up her back.
“Bia” wastes no time locking in a rear-naked choke, and Rendon taps out in a matter of seconds.
The Brazilian grappling ace is now 2-0 in the UFC with a pair of finishes to her credit.

The Official Result
Beatriz Mesquita def. Montserrat Rendon via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R1 2:07
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Angelo picks Beatriz Mesquita but is not confident. He acknowledges her incredible jiu-jitsu but criticizes her poor striking and wrestling. He thinks if Montse Rendon can keep the fight standing, Mesquita will struggle. However, he picks Mesquita because of her finish upside if the fight goes to the ground. He advises against betting her at -450.

"I'm going to pick Bea because the all the finish upside is there. ... You cannot be betting on her at minus 450."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Big Brady picks Beatriz Mesquita to win by first-round submission, citing her elite jiu-jitsu and nasty ground-and-pound. He notes Mesquita can even compete on the feet against Rendon, who is slow and not great at anything. He expects Mesquita to take down Rendon and finish her quickly on the mat.

"give me Bea Mesquita, I'll say first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Cody picks Mesquita, citing her elite BJJ and ability to get takedowns. He notes Rendon's lack of finishing ability and poor striking accuracy. He expects Mesquita to submit or dominate on the ground.

Mesquita by submission +120
"I'm going to take BMs to get the job done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Connor also picks Mesquita, emphasizing that Rendon is glacially slow and Mesquita should be able to take her down and submit her. He notes that Rendon has ideas but lacks the speed to execute them. Connor sees Mesquita's athleticism as the deciding factor.

Mesquita opened at -500, currently -700; Rendon opened at +375, currently +500
"Yeah, she should be able to BS her way to a win, honestly, just on physicality. Just even to speed and throwing an occasional jab and low kick."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

James picks Beatriz Mesquita to win by submission, highlighting her elite grappling and Rendon's lack of striking. He believes Rendon's only path is to clinch and make it gritty, but Mesquita will likely reverse or submit her. He expects an inside-the-distance win.

"my prediction is BMU via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

The host picks Mesquita to win but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He acknowledges Mesquita's elite BJJ but questions her striking and wrestling against a strong, athletic opponent like Rendon. He expects the fight to go over 1.5 rounds and possibly to a decision, with Mesquita winning by grinding out a decision. He notes that Rendon's physicality and takedown defense could make it competitive, and he sees value in Rendon at plus odds.

over 1.5 rounds, Mesquita by decision (approx +300 to +400)
"I still believe Mosquito should be the favorite. She should be roughly around minus 150. So minus 550... I feel like there is a little bit of value on the Rendone side of things here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Paul picks Mesquita, noting her grappling credentials and Rendon's inability to finish. He thinks Mesquita will get takedowns and control the fight. He mentions the price is steep but justified.

"I think the UFC knows what they're doing here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Beatriz Mesquita

The Guru picks Beatriz Mesquita, calling her a generational jiu-jitsu athlete with dominant ground and pound. He thinks she will get takedowns and submit or ground-and-pound Rendon, though he notes the odds (-750) are too high. He expects Mesquita to get to dominant positions like the back or mount.

Odds comment: shouldn't be -750, more like -200 to -300
"I'm going to go with Bea Malecki here. I don't think she should be a minus 750 favorite."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Beatriz Mesquita

Zane picks Beatriz Mesquita, noting that she is a natural athlete with a jiu-jitsu background, while Rendon is one of the slowest fighters in the UFC. He believes Mesquita's speed and grappling will overwhelm Rendon, unless Rendon's size advantage proves too much. He sees Mesquita as able to win on physicality alone.

Mesquita opened at -500, currently -700; Rendon opened at +375, currently +500
"Yep. Agreed. Physical pick. Miskita is a huge favorite, much bigger than she should be as a five foot four bantamweight, open at minus 500, currently minus 700."
WIN vs Alice Pereira
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montse Rendon 0 45 of 166 27% 60 of 185 0 of 5 0% 1 0 1:45
Alice Pereira 0 37 of 117 31% 43 of 123 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montse Rendon 0 11 of 40 27% 15 of 44 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:21
Alice Pereira 0 14 of 41 34% 14 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Montse Rendon 0 20 of 62 32% 31 of 77 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:07
Alice Pereira 0 10 of 42 23% 10 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Montse Rendon 0 14 of 64 21% 14 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Alice Pereira 0 13 of 34 38% 19 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montse Rendon 45 of 166 27% 31 of 136 6 of 14 8 of 16 43 of 163 2 of 3 0 of 0
Alice Pereira 37 of 117 31% 29 of 103 7 of 12 1 of 2 35 of 115 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montse Rendon 11 of 40 27% 6 of 28 2 of 4 3 of 8 10 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alice Pereira 14 of 41 34% 7 of 31 7 of 9 0 of 1 12 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Montse Rendon 20 of 62 32% 16 of 55 1 of 3 3 of 4 20 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alice Pereira 10 of 42 23% 9 of 39 0 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Montse Rendon 14 of 64 21% 9 of 53 3 of 7 2 of 4 13 of 62 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alice Pereira 13 of 34 38% 13 of 33 0 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Alice Pereira

Angelo buys into the hype on Alice, a 19-year-old striker with good speed, power, and takedown defense. He notes she is a hyped prospect and the UFC is promoting her heavily. However, he is concerned about her limited MMA experience and the matchup against a grappler with takedowns. He says he would pick Montserrat if he hadn't watched her get out-struck despite getting takedowns in her last fight. He says he cannot bet here.

"I'm going to buy into the hype, at least for now. I'm going to pick Alice. I cannot bet here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

Big Brady picks Rendon because she has UFC experience and can wrestle/grapple, while Pereira is a complete unknown with poor competition. However, he calls it a '1-800 gambler matchup' and says he would never bet on it. He notes Pereira looked good but only against mall security-level opponents.

Would never bet on this fight
"I'm gonna pick Rendone just because I've seen her go out there and fight ladies with a pulse."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alice Pereira

Pereira is seen as a promising prospect despite being young and wild. The host expects her to fend off Rendon's grappling and use her power to win by knockout, making a dominant statement in her UFC debut.

win by knockout
"I expect her to stave off some of the grappling of Rendone and then eventually put that power on her and then win this fight by knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Alice Pereira

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Alice Pereira, acknowledging her youth and the risk of fading women's MMA prospects. He notes Pereira has power to finish on the feet and consistent finishes, but her last performance was weak. He contrasts her with Montse Rendon, who he sees as unimpressive with only moderate grappling. He trusts Pereira's well-roundedness as a slight favorite.

"I'm going to trust in Alice Pereira. She's got some pretty decent TKOs. She's got power to finish in women's MMA on the feet."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daria Zhelezniakova 0 25 of 147 17% 28 of 156 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:24
Montse Rendon 0 57 of 150 38% 73 of 171 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daria Zhelezniakova 0 6 of 37 16% 7 of 38 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:23
Montse Rendon 0 10 of 32 31% 18 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daria Zhelezniakova 0 14 of 66 21% 16 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Montse Rendon 0 24 of 72 33% 24 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daria Zhelezniakova 0 5 of 44 11% 5 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:10
Montse Rendon 0 23 of 46 50% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daria Zhelezniakova 25 of 147 17% 19 of 134 4 of 11 2 of 2 25 of 137 0 of 8 0 of 2
Montse Rendon 57 of 150 38% 36 of 125 21 of 25 0 of 0 51 of 144 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daria Zhelezniakova 6 of 37 16% 3 of 33 2 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 35 0 of 2 0 of 0
Montse Rendon 10 of 32 31% 7 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Daria Zhelezniakova 14 of 66 21% 12 of 61 1 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 62 0 of 2 0 of 2
Montse Rendon 24 of 72 33% 16 of 62 8 of 10 0 of 0 24 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daria Zhelezniakova 5 of 44 11% 4 of 40 1 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 40 0 of 4 0 of 0
Montse Rendon 23 of 46 50% 13 of 34 10 of 12 0 of 0 19 of 42 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Montserrat Rendon vs. Dariya Zheleznyakova
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zheleznykova (-218), Rendon (+180)

Round 1
The largest betting favorite of the evening comes in this preliminary women’s bantamweight tilt. Heavy underdog Rendon (6-0, 1-0 UFC) will try to land an upset again powerful Russian Zheleznyakova (8-1, 0-0 UFC), with the latter coming in around -250 depending on the book. Whether the lines can be trusted or if all bets are off, they will have 15 minutes to figure it out. Joining them in the cage will be referee Jason Herzog, who sits back as Zheleznyakova cruises forward ready to throw down. The Russian tags her unbeaten opponent in the mouth with an overhand right, and she backs her off with a pair of punches to follow. Rendon throws back but is out of range, as Zheleznyakova zips in and out to find her own shots. Zheleznyakova connects with a powerful right hand, and Rendon counters inaccurately. Rendon sits down on a right hand after eating a one-two, and she presses forward and takes Zheleznyakova down to the mat with a body lock. Zheleznyakova scoots her way to put her back to the wall, and she wall-walks and grabs the fence to do so. Rendon presses hard on her and searches for a mat return with various trips, and she eats a knee right on the solar plexus that stands her up momentarily. Rendon tries with all her might to secure another body lock takedown, but Zheleznyakova breaks free and jabs her in the face. Zheleznyakova sticks and moves as Rendon comes up shy of the mark with an overhand right, and she is in and out to land another right. Rendon scores at the end of a right hand, and she races forward as Zheleznyakova circles away. Zheleznyakova aims a right to the ribs and meets a blitzing Rendon with a knee to the sternum, shutting down Rendon’s takedown effort. Zheleznyakova overswings on a right hand, leading Rendon to snag hold of her and push her to the fence. Rendon completes the outside trip with her body lock and places Zheleznyakova flat on her back. Rendon lands in half guard, and she hangs on until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova

Round 2
Zheleznyakova starts off the second round aggressively, with several punches down the middle. Rendon lets fly her own strikes but is out of range again, as Zheleznyakova keeps her at the end of her punches and knocks her back with a long left hand and a body kick. Zheleznyakova lands a right hand and shuts down a takedown effort with a pair of punches. Rendon scores straight punches that bust open a cut on the Russian’s nose. Rendon pushes forward to pursue a takedown, and she fails to get it and eats a few punches on the nose. Zheleznyakova decides to start slugging it out, her nose leaking red down her face. Zheleznyakova surges forward to land a few, and Rendon has found her home with her power punches. Zheleznyakova spins with a strike and is stopped with a right hand, and Rendon clips her again as she tries to spin. Rendon crashes the pocket in pursuit of a takedown, and Zheleznyakova grabs the fence and has her hand slapped. The close round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rendon
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rendon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rendon

Round 3
Zheleznyakova is cleared to compete in the last round, and they proceed to swing it out inaccurately. Zheleznyakova lobs a big left hand and brushes past the cheek, and she knocks Rendon back with a jab. Rendon crowds her but does not tie her up, instead backing up when she cannot find the right angle for a takedown. Zheleznyakova snaps the head back with a jab, and aims a right hand to the body and just misses a left over the top. Rendon sprints at her recklessly, dodging a strike and tying Zheleznyakova up to go after some kind of awkward takedown. Zheleznyakova shuts it all down and escapes out the side, and she pops out her jab to decent effect. When settling down with a big right hand, she gets backed off, but lands on the chest. Zheleznyakova goes high with a left and low with a right, and she snipes a charging Rendon with shots as Rendon runs at her. Rendon looks for a body lock and a trip, and she gets Zheleznyakova down to a knee for a moment before Zheleznyakova gets right back up. Rendon wrenches her down to a knee again, and she keeps her body weight pressed on the Russian to nullify any other offense. Zheleznyakova aims knees to the body as she tries to escape the clinch, and Rendon hooks her legs between her opponent’s. Zheleznyakova breaks free and lands a jab and a spinning back fist. Zheleznyakova spins with another back fist, and when that misses, she follows with a left that nails the unbeaten fighter. Rendon spins back with a fist that lands, and Zheleznyakova spins two more times to end the bantamweight bout.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova (29-28 Zheleznyakova)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova (29-28 Zheleznyakova)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zheleznyakova (29-28 Zheleznyakova)

The Official Result
Dariya Zheleznyakova def. Montserrat Rendon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

Angelo picks Montse Rendon as a very low confidence pick, citing her ground game as the deciding factor. He notes that Rendon can weather the storm, move forward, and grind out a win on the ground, similar to her win over Tamires Vidal. He sees a wide skill gap on the ground favoring Rendon, but acknowledges Daria's striking power. He considers a plus 3.5 round bet if the odds are favorable.

plus 3.5 round bet if odds are favorable
"I'm going to lean towards the wider skill gap on the ground I'm going to pick the ground specialist in monserat randone insanely low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Big Brady picks Daria Zhelezniakova, impressed by her striking, hand speed, and power. He notes her takedown defense is a potential hole but believes she can win enough minutes on the feet. He mentions that judges are scoring damage over control time, which favors Zhelezniakova if Rendon takes her down but does nothing. He predicts a decision win.

"I'm more on the zelenova side I was really impressed with their striking here I think she should be able to win enough minutes on the feet to to win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Cody picks Zhelezniakova, citing her striking advantage and power. He notes that Rendon is a grappler who may struggle to get takedowns and hold position. Cody acknowledges the price is high but believes Zhelezniakova's skills on the feet will carry her.

"Daria will be the pick for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Daniel Vreeland picks Daria Zhelezniakova by decision, praising her striking speed and technique. He notes Rendon's wrestling is limited to catching kicks and that Zhelezniakova can box her up. He expects Zhelezniakova to win all three rounds on the feet.

Zhelezniakova by decision
"give me zeles nikova by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

Rendon has solid basics, good physicality, and a BJJ brown belt. She showed improvement in her last fight by mixing in takedowns. Zhelezniakova is a UFC newcomer with questionable takedown defense and doesn't do anything exceptionally well. Rendon's strength and one-two down the pipe could be the difference. However, the line may move, and Rendon is only a lean at current odds.

Would consider if Rendon gets back to +200
"I have to lean with randone here now I'm not going to get to the betting window as of yet... if renon gets back up to plus 200... maybe I'll be forced to take another shot on her here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Paul picks Zhelezniakova but notes the line has moved too much. He thinks her striking and improved takedown defense will be enough. Paul expects a decision win for Zhelezniakova.

"I am going to take Daria but I can fully admit this price tag just doesn't seem very fitting."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

The MMA Guru picks Daria Zhelezniakova over Montse Rendon, believing she is a much better striker. He references the Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian fight to argue that control time doesn't matter to judges; damage does. He thinks Zhelezniakova will land more shots and win on damage, even if she ends up on bottom. He notes her loss to Melissa Mullins but sees her as the younger, more technical fighter.

"I am betting on zelen uh zeles nikova to uh land the better shots I think she's a way better Striker"
WIN vs Tamires Vidal
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montse Rendon 0 60 of 109 55% 78 of 131 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:54
Tamires Vidal 0 69 of 182 37% 112 of 240 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montse Rendon 0 23 of 40 57% 31 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:54
Tamires Vidal 0 17 of 54 31% 27 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Montse Rendon 0 21 of 38 55% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Tamires Vidal 0 25 of 61 40% 35 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:43
3 Montse Rendon 0 16 of 31 51% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tamires Vidal 0 27 of 67 40% 50 of 97 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montse Rendon 60 of 109 55% 17 of 59 3 of 3 40 of 47 60 of 108 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 69 of 182 37% 45 of 148 11 of 18 13 of 16 55 of 151 1 of 2 13 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montse Rendon 23 of 40 57% 7 of 23 0 of 0 16 of 17 23 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 17 of 54 31% 13 of 47 0 of 2 4 of 5 17 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Montse Rendon 21 of 38 55% 5 of 18 1 of 1 15 of 19 21 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 25 of 61 40% 17 of 50 6 of 9 2 of 2 20 of 48 1 of 1 4 of 12
3 Montse Rendon 16 of 31 51% 5 of 18 2 of 2 9 of 11 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tamires Vidal 27 of 67 40% 15 of 51 5 of 7 7 of 9 18 of 49 0 of 1 9 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

Angelo believes Vidal is better than Rendon at Rendon's best skill. He notes Vidal hits harder, is stronger, has more experience, and should be a much heavier favorite. He sees no path to victory for Rendon and considers Vidal parlayable.

"I love Vidal in this spot I think she is parlayable I really don't see her losing this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

Big Brady picks Tamires Vidal, citing her youth (25), improvements, brown belt in BJJ, and power on the feet. He notes she knocked out Ramona Pascual, who is tough, and believes Vidal can win by KO, sub, or decision. He is not betting at -220 but confidently picks her to win, predicting a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'll take Vidal to win this fight and I'll say she gets it done by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

Cody picks Tamires Vidal as a live underdog, citing Rendon's age (34), poor wrestling, and close decisions. He notes Vidal's youth (25), explosiveness, and physicality. He thinks Vidal can mix in takedowns and win a decision or finish.

"I think I'm gonna take the small shot to Mira's Fidel... live Underdog live Underdog."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

Daniel picks Rendon as a dog, believing the odds are off. He criticizes Vidal's performance against Ailin Perez (a loss) and notes she was outstruck by a can. He thinks Rendon is tough, has decent volume, and can win a decision. He sees this as a low-level fight where the underdog has value.

plus 185 moneyline; mentions point spread +3.5
"I'm gonna go monra at renon Via decision uh but if I were to play it it would just be money line"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James explicitly says he hasn't taped this fight and is not going to speak about it. He skips it entirely, so no pick is made.

"I'm not even going to speak about them."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

The host picks Rendon as a plus 185 underdog, questioning Vidal's skills and calling her a 'poor woman's Priscilla Cachoeira.' He notes Rendon's athleticism, tight boxing, and straight shots down the pipe to counter Vidal's wide hooks. He worries about Vidal's grappling but believes Rendon's strength and BJJ brown belt will keep the fight standing. He predicts a decision win.

"give me run down and run down by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Paul has no clear pick for this fight. He is interested in Vidal under 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks, noting she is more of a striker and was dominated on the ground by Eileen Perez. He does not commit to a winner.

Vidal under 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.
"I have no idea what to do with this one... I like the less than 1.5 takedowns I feel like that's how I'm gonna get access to this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tamires Vidal

The MMA Guru picks Tamires Vidal to win by TKO, citing her aggression and knockout power. He criticizes Montse Rendon's late start in MMA and unimpressive regional wins, including a split decision over a 4-4 opponent. He notes Vidal's only loss is to Carol Rosa and that she is 2-0 in the UFC, showing confidence from her team. He believes Vidal's power and aggression will overwhelm Rendon.

by TKO
"I'm gonna say that Tamir es Vidal is going to absolutely destroy Montserrat Rendon with a TKO in this fight"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

Angelo picks Montse Rendon as a very low confidence pick, citing her ground game as the deciding factor. He notes that Rendon can weather the storm, move forward, and grind out a win on the ground, similar to her win over Tamires Vidal. He sees a wide skill gap on the ground favoring Rendon, but acknowledges Daria's striking power. He considers a plus 3.5 round bet if the odds are favorable.

plus 3.5 round bet if odds are favorable
"I'm going to lean towards the wider skill gap on the ground I'm going to pick the ground specialist in monserat randone insanely low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Big Brady picks Daria Zhelezniakova, impressed by her striking, hand speed, and power. He notes her takedown defense is a potential hole but believes she can win enough minutes on the feet. He mentions that judges are scoring damage over control time, which favors Zhelezniakova if Rendon takes her down but does nothing. He predicts a decision win.

"I'm more on the zelenova side I was really impressed with their striking here I think she should be able to win enough minutes on the feet to to win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Cody picks Zhelezniakova, citing her striking advantage and power. He notes that Rendon is a grappler who may struggle to get takedowns and hold position. Cody acknowledges the price is high but believes Zhelezniakova's skills on the feet will carry her.

"Daria will be the pick for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Daniel Vreeland picks Daria Zhelezniakova by decision, praising her striking speed and technique. He notes Rendon's wrestling is limited to catching kicks and that Zhelezniakova can box her up. He expects Zhelezniakova to win all three rounds on the feet.

Zhelezniakova by decision
"give me zeles nikova by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Montse Rendon

Rendon has solid basics, good physicality, and a BJJ brown belt. She showed improvement in her last fight by mixing in takedowns. Zhelezniakova is a UFC newcomer with questionable takedown defense and doesn't do anything exceptionally well. Rendon's strength and one-two down the pipe could be the difference. However, the line may move, and Rendon is only a lean at current odds.

Would consider if Rendon gets back to +200
"I have to lean with randone here now I'm not going to get to the betting window as of yet... if renon gets back up to plus 200... maybe I'll be forced to take another shot on her here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

Paul picks Zhelezniakova but notes the line has moved too much. He thinks her striking and improved takedown defense will be enough. Paul expects a decision win for Zhelezniakova.

"I am going to take Daria but I can fully admit this price tag just doesn't seem very fitting."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daria Zhelezniakova

The MMA Guru picks Daria Zhelezniakova over Montse Rendon, believing she is a much better striker. He references the Christian Rodriguez vs. Isaac Dulgarian fight to argue that control time doesn't matter to judges; damage does. He thinks Zhelezniakova will land more shots and win on damage, even if she ends up on bottom. He notes her loss to Melissa Mullins but sees her as the younger, more technical fighter.

"I am betting on zelen uh zeles nikova to uh land the better shots I think she's a way better Striker"