Career Averages - Trey Ogden
Career Averages - Kurt Holobaugh
Trey Ogden
Kurt Holobaugh
Trey Ogden - Fight History
Angelo picks Tommy Gantt because he believes Gantt is better everywhere, especially in wrestling. He notes Gantt's athleticism, speed, and finishing ability, while Trey Ogden lacks answers for Gantt's wrestling. He expects Gantt to take Ogden down at will and do more damage.
Lucrative James picks Tommy Gantt, citing his size, physicality, and undefeated record. He believes Gantt can make the fight gritty and get takedowns, while Ogden may struggle with pace. He predicts a decision win for Gantt.
The host acknowledges Gantt's superior wrestling and athleticism but is hesitant to trust him at -240 due to his low level of competition and the trend of undefeated prospects struggling against tested UFC veterans. He predicts Gantt wins by decision but does not recommend betting him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 42 of 86 | 48% | 97 of 157 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 116 of 148 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 2 | 0 | 9:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 40 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 22 of 49 | 44% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 41 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:05 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 62 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 35 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 42 of 86 | 48% | 38 of 78 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 29 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 24 of 47 | 51% | 14 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 21 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 22 of 49 | 44% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 22 of 42 | 52% | 14 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 18 of 33 | 54% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 29 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Radzhabov (-115), Ogden (-105)
Round 1
After suffering the first stoppage loss in his career, Radzhabov (18-5-1, 2-1 UFC) bounced back in a big way by clubbing Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady in March. He hopes to pull another knockout rabbit out of his hat when he throws down with Marathon MMA head coach Ogden (17-6, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC). Of note, Ogden’s last victory came over Kurt Holobaugh, and yet Holobaugh will fight much higher up on this card tonight. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Herb Dean, and the lightweights touch ‘em up. Radzhabov is ready and waiting when Ogden comes after him, and he coils and fires a right hand to back Ogden off. “The Shamurai” ducks a second looping punch, and he snatches up the legs of his opponent and deposits Radzhabov down to the canvas to send an early message. Radzhabov posts off his right arm and tries to work himself up to his knees, and Ogden holds on from behind and looks for a mat return. Radzhabov grabs the fence, and the onlookers cry foul as Dean takes a look but does say anything. Ogden succeeds in dragging “The Tajik Tank” down from behind, getting both of his hooks in as he is quick to search for a rear-naked choke. Ogden drapes his arm on Radzhabov’s face and squeezes, and he lets it go as Radzhabov turns around to his knees. Ogden smacks Radzhabov on the sides of the head from behind as he looks to flatten Radzhabov, and he goes hunting for another rear-naked choke that nearly gets beneath the chin. Ogden turns Radzhabov over and secures a body triangle, and he softens Radzhabov up with strikes on either side. Radzhabov twists and turns but is unable to get the body lock off of him, and Ogden makes his life miserable by covering his mouth and holding tight. Ogden tries for a brute force neck crank, but Radzhabov turns his head to the right direction to stop it from going anywhere. Radzhabov hand-fights effectively to stop Ogden from sinking the choke in, and he turns over to his knees but is unsuccessful to get out thanks in part to Ogden’s body triangle. Ogden gets closer on his choke attempt, but once more Radzhabov defends it properly. Ogden gets a forearm on the chin, and he thinks about using a face crank but does not decide to turn his arms out. Radzhabov defends himself enough to survive the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 2
Before the second round begins, Dean brings in the translator to issue a hard warning for Radzhabov grabbing the fence in the previous round. Radzhabov acknowledges this and the round begins. Radzhabov comes out firing, and Ogden is elusive enough to avoid the worst of the blows but takes a solid uppercut before tying Radzhabov up. Radzhabov spins away and whips a left hook at his man, and he races forward swinging hard. Radzhabov stifles a desperate single, and Ogden is backed up against the cage wall and gets clipped by the hard-swinging fighter known as “The Tajik Tank.” Ogden lands a low kick to briefly slow Radzhabov down, and he brings up a knee when they clinch for a second. Ogden tosses out a left hand as he wobbles back from big right hands from his adversary, and Radzhabov swings that same blow at him several times to moderate effect. Ogden checks a leg kick and gives one back, and Radzhabov crashes the pocket and lands two thudding right hooks before Ogden ties him up again. Ogden chooses to break free and reset, and Radzhabov continues plodding forward swinging mighty fists. The fighter from Tajikistan connects with a stern uppercut, and Ogden replies with a body lock and a takedown that he lands with relative ease. Even easier, Ogden walks into full mount, and he uses a modified arm-triangle choke to flatten Radzhabov out from above. Ogden sits down on the arm-triangle choke and presses his weight down, and Radzhabov’s face starts changing colors even as he defends the grip by answering the phone. Ogden leans down on one side and remains in full mount as he does so, and he elects to move to the side to complete it but loses the grip and hops back to mount. Radzhabov survives the submission as Ogden uses heavy shoulder pressure to frustrate him, and he bucks as hard as he can to scramble and get Ogden off of him. Ogden looks to flip him over and trap him in a submission roll, but he cannot keep Radzhabov grounded. Both men get to their feet, and Radzhabov tries and fails to land power strikes before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 3
Radzhabov’s corner spills ice and water on the floor, a veteran move to get more time, and someone has to rush into the cage to wipe up the excess liquid as Joe Rogan is screaming at his screen from afar. Ogden begins the round by backpedaling when Radzhabov comes at him, and he uses Radzhabov’s momentum against him by tackling him to the mat and landing in a controlling half guard. Ogden bops Radzhabov with a few short, light strikes before wrapping his left arm around the back of Radzhabov’s head to set up another submission. Like a snake, Ogden slowly and methodically wraps up the arm-triangle choke, and Radzhabov keeps himself from getting snared entirely but cannot keep Ogden from climbing into the full mount position. Radzhabov smacks Ogden on the side of the head with his free right hand, irritating Ogden enough to bring his hand up to block the blows before lowering himself all the way flat on top. An Ezekiel choke is briefly in play for “Shamurai,” but he decides against wrapping his forearm on the windpipe so he can drill Radzhabov in the face with shoulder shots. Dean calls for more action even with Ogden in mount, and Radzhabov answers the call and explodes upright and falls into a guillotine choke. Radzhabov spins out of it and flips Ogden to his back, and he hammers down with vicious ground-and-pound until Ogden ties him up for a second. Ogden uses a butterfly guard to put his feet on the hips and hits a sweep, but Radzhabov is savvy enough to lower himself into the guard and posture up to blast Ogden with heavy punches. Radzhabov grabs the fence to turn himself in an effort to secure better position, and Dean goes to slap his hand but Radzhabov pulls it back to release more punches and elbows on Ogden’s dome. Ogden retaliates by sending Radzhabov flying when he kicks off the hips, and Radzhabov races after him to get on top and ride out the remainder of the bout.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Radzhabov (29-28 Ogden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Radzhabov (29-28 Ogden)
The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Loik Radzhabov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Trey Ogden as an underdog because he trusts Ogden's consistent, boring game plan of takedowns and control. He notes that Loik Radzhabov has subpar takedown defense and can be taken down multiple times, while Ogden is confident and will shoot takedowns. He plans to watch the line movement and potentially bet if the odds improve.
Cody picks Ogden, citing his 100% takedown defense in the UFC and his ability to neutralize opponents with top control. He questions Radzhabov's cardio and thinks Ogden can outwork him with volume and key takedowns. He admits it's a close fight but likes Ogden's game plan.
Daniel Vreeland picks Loik Radzhabov, criticizing Trey Ogden's safe, risk-averse style. He notes Ogden's recent wins were against opponents who underperformed, and that Radzhabov is a physical, aggressive fighter who will force a fight. Vreeland believes Radzhabov's pressure and takedown ability will overwhelm Ogden.
Ogden is a pick'em at -110. He has a disciplined game plan and excellent top control, as seen against Holobaugh. He can weather Radzhabov's early power and then take over with his wrestling and cardio in the second and third rounds. Radzhabov tends to fade, and Ogden's fight IQ should allow him to set up takedowns as the fight progresses. The main concern is Ogden's durability, but his overall game plan and cardio favor him.
Paul also picks Ogden, liking his last two fights and smart game plans. He thinks it will be a close, greasy fight likely going to decision. He suggests looking at split decision props.
The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Trey Ogden. He compares Ogden to Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady and notes Ogden's tricky outside fighting style but points out his loss to Jordan Leavitt as worrying. He highlights Radzhabov's dangerous early rounds and close fight with Esteban Ribovics, and believes Radzhabov can win by TKO or decision, possibly slowing down in the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 29 of 68 | 42% | 129 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 35 of 66 | 53% | 225 of 320 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 11:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 43 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 68 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 39 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 75 of 119 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 47 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 82 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 29 of 68 | 42% | 9 of 43 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 13 | 24 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 35 of 66 | 53% | 22 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 28 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 of 11 | 9% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 20 of 42 | 47% | 5 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 26 of 41 | 63% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ogden (-155), Holobaugh (+130)
Round 1
Two submission specialists come together in the preliminary headliner, and both men are in desperate need of a win given their track records with the promotion thus far. Holobaugh (20-7, 1 NC; 1-4 UFC) is trying to make his third stint in the UFC the best, while Ogden (16-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) is still fuming about a premature stoppage of Nikolas Motta from November that cost him a win bonus. Barring something crazy, a win bonus will be doled out, and referee Mark Smith may be the first to know who that is. The lightweights touch gloves, and Holobaugh puts a few quick combinations together as Ogden sits down on a leg kick and swatting left hand. Ogden doubles up on a jab and eats a body shot, and Holobaugh crowds him and kicks him hard on the lead leg. Ogden feints a takedown, drawing a short flurry of strikes that allows him to shoot and take Holobaugh down to the mat. Ogden gets busy with flailing punches, and Holobaugh is just as busy if not more as he attacks with short strikes and elbows. Ogden lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke, and he gets smacked a few times in the back of the head. Ogden, in half guard, again presses his shoulder down for the arm-triangle, and he bops Holobaugh in the side of the head with short but irritating hammerfists. Holobaugh hooks his legs around Ogden’s to keep him from passing or advancing position, so Ogden sits there comfortably scoring short punches and shoulder strikes. Ogden postures up to land harder blows, and he drives his shoulder in Holobaugh’s chin once more to conclude the frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 2
Holobaugh practically sprints out of his corner to engage, and he eats a leg kick on the way in. Holobaugh tries to come out swinging again, and Ogden kicks his other leg out. Ogden chews up both legs with kicks, and he fakes his way forward and kiais to draw out a reaction. Ogden smacks him in the face with a question mark kick, and he slides away as Holobaugh chases for a counter. Holobaugh lands a body kick, and they trade one-twos. Ogden digs a kick to the ribcage, and he has a leg kick checked when he backs up against the cage. Ogden shoots for a takedown, and Holobaugh stuffs him and rings his bell with two fierce right hands. Ogden jabs once to make him retreat, and he points at Holobaugh after absorbing a low kick. Ogden tries to tie him up when Holobaugh crowds him, and he gets off a few short knees and trips Holobaugh up to dump him on the ground. Ogden threatens with an arm-triangle choke, pressing his shoulder down on the windpipe until smashing them down on Holobaugh’s face. Holobaugh turns to his side in an effort to escape, and Ogden pounds away at him with his free right hand. Ogden’s fist continues to meet face again and again, and Holobaugh can only grab Ogden’s wrist or block his face to defend from the methodical bludgeoning. Ogden fearlessly clubs away, picking up the pace as he looks for a stoppage. Holobaugh recovers well enough to stave off Smith’s itchy trigger finger, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 3
The gloves are touched, and Holobaugh aggressively pursues his man around the cage only to eat a number of jabs and low kicks while trying to close the distance. Ogden stays elusive and does not let Holobaugh crowd him, but he stands still and gets beaned with two right hands. As he shakes it off, he shoots in for a perfect takedown that deposits the TUF winner on his back. Holobaugh closes guard as Ogden works him from on top, and the man now known as “Shamurai” methodically climbs into half guard while continuously beating on his opponent. Ogden grinds out time as he clubs Holobaugh with hammerfists and punches, not allowing Holobaugh to breathe or get anything off of merit on his own side. With a minute to go, Ogden jumps into full mount, and he decides against trying anything reckless. The control on top carries out until the final bell, and Holobaugh gets up and walks off irritated about the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident in Trey Ogden, having placed a half-unit bet on him at -146. He believes Ogden can hang in the striking, get takedowns, and work from top position. He notes that Ogden was winning the striking exchanges in his last fight before the early stoppage, and his grappling should be enough to overcome Holobaugh's BJJ.
Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh, citing his dangerous submissions and Trey Ogden's history of being submitted (three times, twice by guillotine). He notes Holobaugh is a wild man who comes forward, while Ogden is more technical but has been submitted before. He predicts Holobaugh will submit Ogden in the second round.
Cody picks Holobaugh, citing his forward pressure, volume, and submission threat. He notes that Ogden's wrestling may not hold Holobaugh down, and Holobaugh's scrambling and aggression could sway judges. Cody sees Holobaugh as the dog with value.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Kurt Holobaugh, agreeing with the co-host that this is a pick'em fight. He notes Ogden's recent win was against a low-level opponent and that Holobaugh has more power and output. He prefers the underdog in a close fight, citing judging uncertainty.
Ogden showed a complete performance in his last fight (no contest) with seamless striking and grappling. He should dictate the pace from the outside with straight shots and then mix in takedowns. Holobaugh is a BJJ black belt but has poor takedown defense and tends to invite grappling. Ogden's constant movement and jab should cause issues, leading to a decision win.
Paul sides with Cody, noting Holobaugh's experience and dangerous submission game. He thinks Ogden's game plan of taking down Holobaugh is risky due to Holobaugh's ability to scramble and threaten submissions. Paul picks the veteran.
The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh over Trey Ogden, praising Holobaugh's boxing and ground game. He thinks Holobaugh will drop Ogden and then submit him via guillotine choke after Ogden shoots for a takedown. He notes Holobaugh's experience and full training camp.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 58 of 83 | 69% | 96 of 128 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 4:28 |
| Nikolas Motta | 0 | 14 of 80 | 17% | 16 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 35 of 49 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Nikolas Motta | 0 | 2 of 17 | 11% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 41 of 56 | 73% | 43 of 59 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Nikolas Motta | 0 | 12 of 58 | 20% | 12 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 18 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Nikolas Motta | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 58 of 83 | 69% | 49 of 74 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 44 of 65 | 13 of 17 | 1 of 1 |
| Nikolas Motta | 14 of 80 | 17% | 8 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 16 of 25 | 64% | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Nikolas Motta | 2 of 17 | 11% | 0 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 41 of 56 | 73% | 37 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 43 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Nikolas Motta | 12 of 58 | 20% | 8 of 53 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nikolas Motta | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Motta (-135), Ogden (+114)
Round 1
Moving on to the lightweight division, two fighters will set foot in the cage hoping right the ship after losses earlier in the year, and the next victory will even their UFC record. Whether it is Ogden (16-6, 1-2 UFC) or Motta (13-5, 1-2 UFC), they will have the next three rounds or less to decide. Referee Mike Beltran draws the charge, and he sits back as the fighters do not choose to touch ‘em up. Both fighters fake jabs at one another, and then they reach out with jabs that do not find their targets. The first land is from Ogden in the form of a prodding jab, and he wipes his hands on his shorts. Ogden snaps out another jab as Motta comes in, and Motta sits down on a leg kick in response. Ogden gets in a jab and dodges when Motta counters, and he ducks away as Motta swings at him. Motta throws a kick, and Ogden catches it and goes after a single. Ogden presses his foe against the fence when the takedown does not materialize, and he is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Motta trapped on it. Ogden softens the body up with a few knees before pushing off, and he drops down for another single and bails on it to go up top with a right and a left. Ogden snipes his foe with another sharp jab, snapping the head back and disrupting the power coming back at him. Ogden shoots for a naked double-leg takedown, and Motta stands him up but gets popped with another jab. Motta prepares for another takedown and halts it, and Ogden once more sticks him with the jab. Ogden kicks low and rifles out a few jabs, and Motta is unable to let go with power punches as a result. Motta’s nose begins to glow like Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, and he defends against another shot but eats a number of jabs. Ogden snake-charms his opponent with jabs, and as Motta overswings on a right hand, he drops down low and secures a double to dump the Brazilian on his back. Ogden moves right to half guard with ease, and he grinds out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 2
Ogden is ready and rearing to pick up right where he left off, and he pushes out a jab and beats Motta to the punch a few times. Motta rushes out throwing big punches, but Ogden sees them coming and evades them. Motta looks for a head kick at the end of a few strikes, and Ogden parries and strafes to the side. Ogden ducks and runs to the side when Motta swings for the bleachers, and he gets back into position and pierces the guard with a jab. An overzealous Motta runs into a takedown attempt, and he manages to stop it and throw hand back. Ogden keeps composed and rolls with the punches, what few Motta has landed. Motta unloads a right hand that skims past the side of his foe’s head, and Ogden answers this with a double attempt. Motta stifles this and chomps down on a few more jabs as mis mouth opens from the blows. Ogden fails on another takedown attempt, but his follow-up punches are largely finding their mark while Motta swings back hitting air. Ogden stands in one place a little too long and takes a right hand on the chin, and this wobbles him as he stumbles away. Motta tries to give chase, but Ogden takes a quick count of his teeth and smacks the Brazilian with a left hook. The jabs continue to mount by the busy Ogden, who regains his sea legs as he further marks up Motta’s face. Ogden fakes out his foe to grab hold of him with a body lock, and he delivers a pair of knees to the body. Motta pushes off and continues to throw wildly, and every so often he does manage a land. Motta dips down to block a takedown, and Ogden opens up with three punches and a blocked head kick. Ogden slings Motta to the ground with sheer strength, and Motta climbs back up and takes a knee up the middle and a right hand. Motta shakes it off and continues relentlessly throwing power punches, but Ogden sees most of them coming and does work with his jab and follow-up hook. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 3
The two have reached the final round, and they meet in the middle and trade hands. Ogden hops back away from the power right hand, and he glances it off the cheek and surprises Ogden. The Marathon MMA fighter doggedly goes after a takedown, and Motta hops across the cage and keeps his balance. Ogden exerts himself and dumps the Brazilian to his seat, and he wraps his legs around Motta’s for a partial mount position. Motta sits himself against the fence, and Ogden drags him flat to his back as he slides himself a bit higher to claim full mount. “Samurai Ghost” maintains heavy chest pressure and bonks Motta in the side of the head with open palm strikes, and he squeezes down to set up an arm-triangle choke and slips his left arm behind Motta’s head. Ogden adjusts his grip and talks to his corner, and he follows their instructions to lock down the arm-triangle choke. Ogden steps over to the side as he presses down with all his might.
Beltran tells Motta to show him he is still in the fight, and Motta fights the grip and is still with it. Beltran checks on Motta’s hand and believes that Motta is out, and he steps in to stop the fight. Motta immediately screams at Beltran, saying he was not out and asking why the fight is over.
By first glance, it appears to be a bit of a premature stoppage, as Motta was not rendered unconscious and his attempts to signal Beltran something like a thumbs-up would put him further in danger. For now, the result is what it is, a win by technical submission for Ogden, unless the replay goes over the footage and determines something else. As it turns out, they do.
The Official Result
Trey Ogden vs. Nikolas Motta is Ruled a No Contest (Premature Stoppage) R3 3:11
Angelo leans towards Nikolas Motta, expecting him to stay busy on the feet and keep Trey Ogden out of his wrestling rhythm. He notes Motta has solid takedown defense and explosive striking. He predicts a decision win for Motta.
Big Brady calls this a terrible fight, criticizing Trey Ogden for being a point striker who doesn't engage and has zero knockout wins. He thinks Motta has a questionable chin but will land big shots because Ogden will be running around. He predicts Motta wins by decision because he looks like he wants to be there, but he has little interest in the fight.
Cody picks Nikolas Motta, citing his superior striking and hand speed. He notes that Ogden has no knockout power and low volume. Motta's chin is a concern, but Ogden is unlikely to exploit it. Cody expects Motta to out-strike Ogden and win.
Ogden is a BJJ black belt who can implement his grappling pressure similar to his win over Zellhuber. He will walk Motta down, land kicks and punches, then change levels for takedowns. Motta has questionable durability and grappling acumen, having been knocked out recently and not tested on the ground. Ogden can find a submission victory.
Paul picks Motta, noting his better boxing and speed. He mentions Ogden's lack of power and inability to wrestle effectively. Paul thinks Motta can win by decision or TKO if he avoids getting hit clean.
The MMA Guru picks Trey Ogden over Nikolas Motta, citing Motta's lack of momentum after being knocked out by Manuel Torres and Jim Miller. He notes Ogden's tricky style and competitive fights against Ignacio Bahamondes and Daniel Zellhuber, and believes Ogden can outpoint Motta on the outside to a decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 99 of 200 | 49% | 99 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 42 of 109 | 38% | 42 of 109 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 16 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 43 of 83 | 51% | 43 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 17 of 42 | 40% | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 99 of 200 | 49% | 28 of 88 | 30 of 65 | 41 of 47 | 99 of 200 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 42 of 109 | 38% | 24 of 81 | 10 of 15 | 8 of 13 | 42 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 26 of 51 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 4 of 15 | 15 of 17 | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 9 of 22 | 40% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 30 of 66 | 45% | 9 of 33 | 11 of 20 | 10 of 13 | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 16 of 45 | 35% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 43 of 83 | 51% | 12 of 36 | 15 of 30 | 16 of 17 | 43 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 17 of 42 | 40% | 13 of 36 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bahamondes (-345), Ogden (+285)
Round 1
Due to bout cancelations, matchup switcheroos and a bunch of other oddities, this fight set in the cage now is taking place at a pre-planned 160 pounds. After over a year off, Bahamondes (13-4, 2-1 UFC) wants to shake off any rust and handle Ogden (16-5, 1-1 UFC). The style matchup is intriguing, with all but one of Bahamondes’ career stoppages by knockout, while Ogden has never once performed a stoppage due to strikes. Referee Andrew Glenn is on call for this catchweight contest, and it opens up with no touch of gloves. Bahamondes starts with a low leg kick, and Ogden hops forward to stomp his foe’s knee. Ogden pursues an inside leg kick, and Bahamondes counters with a pair of punches. The Chilean fighter paws at him with at front kick and a jab, looking to establish his superior reach advantage. Ogden attacks his lead leg, and Bahamondes responds in kind. Bahamondes chips at the lead calf, allowing himself to be opened up to catch a left to the chin. Bahamondes rips a body kick, and he changes stances to line up a low kick. The pace is slow and very tit-for-tat, but Bahamondes appears to be landing with heavier leg kicks than his opponent. One in particular makes Ogden turn his leg into it, and he swats away a long jab and counters with a left. The stance switching from “La Jaula” frustrates his opponent and disrupts much of his offense, while setting up leg kicks from either leg. Ogden takes several more kicks to the inside and outside of his lead wheel, and he rolls with the brunt of a one-two. Ogden leans back but cannot block a right hand, and Bahamondes blasts him in the midsection with a kick. Ogden points to his elbow to say that he blocked it, and he gets stung with a left to follow. Ogden backs up into the fence and is nearly turned around from a leg kick, and Bahamondes chops at it indiscriminately. Bahamondes settles down to fire off another kick to the ribcage, and he darts back when Ogden punches him in the side. Ogden’s offense is limited to single blows, and Bahamondes is potshotting him from afar. They clash legs when kicking at one another, and Bahamondes spins with a back kick to the breadbasket. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Round 2
The second frame opens as the two meet directly in the center of the cage, and Bahamondes leads off with several punches and whiffs with a wheel kick. Bahamondes steps through to light up the body with a kick, and Ogden slides to the side to fire off a trio of punches and an open-handed slap. They trade low kicks, and Bahamondes lines up a solid kick to the body. Bahamondes connects with a clean one-two, beating Ogden to the punch in most of their exchanges. Ogden goes up high with a kick, and “La Jaula” blocks it with ease. Bahamondes outjabs his foe, and Ogden shoots in from a healthy distance and is stuffed. Bahamondes retreats and lines up a low kick and a long left hand, and Ogden loads up on a left hand to respond. Ogden attempts to check a leg kick, and Bahamondes digs a few punches to the body. Bahamondes reaches his man and gets out before getting countered, and he protects himself from a high kick. The jabs and straight punches to the body continue to come from Bahamondes, who leaps into a flying knee and bounces off his target. Ogden blocks a body kick as the crowd showers the two cautious strikers with boos. These seem to excite “Samurai Ghost” momentarily, who chases Bahamondes down and connects with a combination. Ogden swipes out with a left hand, and Bahamondes chops his leg down on the inside again. The action once again wanes, and the crowd is not slow to voice its disapproval. Bahamondes scores another body kick that Ogden motions did not connect, but it did slide under his elbow first. The two fighters trade jabs, and take turns with exchanges. Bahamondes kicks, Ogden responds, and Bahamondes continues. Bahamondes lands a pair of leg kicks on the inside, fires one off to the head, and the tepid round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Round 3
The final frame opens with Bahamondes taking the middle of the Octagon and spamming kicks to all targets. Ogden paws out a left hand, and it is a single strike answered by several from Bahamondes. Bahamondes hammers the body with a kick, and this time Ogden is not motioning anything, as that appeared to sting. Bahamondes reaches with a straight left hand, and does so a second time before working the lead leg with a hard kick. Bahamondes chains into a pair of body kick, where he switches stance to dig his shin on the underside of Ogden’s knee. The Chilean fighter constantly peppers Ogden with kicks, rarely aiming at the same spot twice in a row. A leg kick from his right leg is followed by one from his left to the head, and then his right foot pushes out with a front kick. Bahamondes continues his lumberjack routine of chopping down the tree that is Ogden, and he slaps Ogden in the face with his instep. Ogden is left guessing or flailing at the wind, with left hooks that are nearly a foot short of the mark or low kicks that have little on them. The audience starts lighting up their phones and waving around the lights, all while raining down a wall of boos. The pace does not change for the fighters, as Bahamondes is comfortable with his calm yet active approach. Ogden dings Bahamondes with a left, but it is one-and-done before Bahamondes scores three times from a distance. Bahamondes jabs the body and spins with a kick to the midsection, and he hops back when Ogden aims a right hand down towards the breadbasket. Bahamondes swings a check right hook when Ogden advances, but it does not slow “Samurai Ghost” from throwing a solid right. Bahamondes misses the mark with a spinning wheel kick, but a second spin in the form of a back kick lands on the ribs and pushes Ogden into the wall. Bahamondes spins with a back fist, a wheel kick and then fires an axe kick, and Ogden stands in front of him until the horn blares to end this lackluster match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
The Official Result
Ignacio Bahamondes def. Trey Ogden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, reach, surprising output, good power, footwork, and 95% takedown defense. He notes that Trey Ogden is stepping up on short notice and has had to cut weight twice in a few weeks, which is a disadvantage. He believes Ignacio will dominate with his striking and is one of his most confident picks on the card.
Big Brady is confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes that Trey Ogden has poor takedown accuracy (15%) and struggled against Jordan Levitt. He believes Bahamondes will outclass Ogden on the feet and potentially finish him, but predicts a decision win. He mentions the line movement as a sign of confidence.
Cody agrees with Paul on Bahamondes. He notes Bahamondes' potential and size advantage, and that Ogden's wins have come against lower-level competition. Cody points out Ogden's poor takedown defense and low striking output. He thinks Bahamondes will use his reach and volume to dominate. Cody says he probably won't bet it due to the price but agrees it's a solid pick.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bahamondes. He notes that Ogden is a fighter who makes it hard for opponents to hit him, but Bahamondes will keep throwing.
Jacob also loves Ignacio, calling it one of his favorite plays on the card. He emphasizes Ignacio's jab and length, and notes that Trey Ogden marches forward with his head on the center line, making him vulnerable. He warns against Ignacio pulling guillotines, as that could put him on his back, but believes if he sticks to jabbing, he will dominate.
Bahamondes is all violence with high volume, using his height and reach to keep opponents at distance. He has 95% takedown defense and trains with Belal Muhammad to improve his grappling. Ogden is a BJJ black belt but may struggle with Bahamondes' constant pressure and output. I expect Bahamondes to land a knockout as Ogden gets desperate with takedowns.
Paul is high on Bahamondes, calling him potential top ticket material. He highlights Bahamondes' massive size for lightweight (6'3", 75" reach), excellent volume, and takedown defense. Paul notes Bahamondes' cardio and durability, and that he keeps improving. He criticizes Ogden's low output and poor wrestling, and believes Bahamondes will outwork him easily. Paul expects a dominant performance.
The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission via guillotine or d'arce choke. He highlights Bahamondes' good reactions to takedown attempts and his striking at range with front kicks and straight punches. He predicts Ogden will shoot a sloppy takedown in the second round after being worn down by leg kicks and body shots, allowing Bahamondes to latch on a guillotine against the cage.
Zane picks Bahamondes because Ogden is a negative fighter who withdraws, and Bahamondes is pathologically aggressive. He notes that trying to not have a fight with Bahamondes is dangerous.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 71 of 168 | 42% | 72 of 169 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 52 of 178 | 29% | 52 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 20 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 27 of 58 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 23 of 64 | 35% | 23 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 25 of 64 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 17 of 78 | 21% | 17 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 71 of 168 | 42% | 22 of 109 | 7 of 13 | 42 of 46 | 71 of 168 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 52 of 178 | 29% | 19 of 125 | 21 of 40 | 12 of 13 | 52 of 178 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 20 of 47 | 42% | 1 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 20 | 20 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 12 of 36 | 33% | 1 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 26 of 57 | 45% | 6 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 18 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 23 of 64 | 35% | 8 of 40 | 10 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 25 of 64 | 39% | 15 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 17 of 78 | 21% | 10 of 63 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zellhuber (-285), Ogden (+240)
Round 1
Like the Gravely-Basharat matchup from earlier, a fighter with at least 20 pro bouts will try to make a 12-0 fighter’s 0 go. In this instance, it is Glory MMA & Fitness’ Ogden (15-5, 0-1 UFC), who only finishes fights by submission, against unbeaten Mexican striker Zellhuber (12-0, 0-0 UFC). The third man in the cage for this lightweight tilt will be referee Herb Dean, and he sits back to observe a touch of gloves. There is a stalemate when the fight begins, with no strikes thrown for the first 20 seconds or so. Ogden punctuates the silence with a slapping kick to the outside of the newcomer’s leg, and he eventually tosses out one on the inside. The lightweights are exceedingly patient to engage, with the only strikes in a full minute three leg kicks. Zellhuber pitches a front kick up the middle that is swatted away, and Ogden use another low kick to find his range and do something at all. Ogden shoots from afar, and Zellhuber sees it coming and easily tosses him out of the way. Ogden gathers himself and uses a low kick, and he reaches out with a left hook. Zellhuber comes up short with a jab, and he is similarly inaccurate in several other strikes to differing targets. Ogden goes up high with a kick that slaps off the shoulder, and he peppers the lead leg with several kicks. Zellhuber comes out throwing hands, and Ogden is faster and intercepts him with a left hook. Zellhuber misses the chin by a matter of inches with a quick kick, and it slaps into the chest with emphasis. They both score single jabs, and Ogden stays active with leg kicks to both sides of the lead wheel of “Golden Boy.” Ogden pushes out multiple jabs, and the kicks from both fighters get blocked. Ogden chips and chops with low kicks, and the snoozer of a round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 2
The tentative second round starts just like the first ended, albeit without a glove touch, with neither man willing to engage with much of note. Ogden keeps using low kicks as his preferred weapon, and he snaps the head back with a counter hook when Zellhuber closes in on him. As Zellhuber advances again to walk through kicks, he gets poked in the eye. Dean gives him time to recover, but Zellhuber wants to keep going and pick things up. Ogden is the one fired up after the brief break, with a few quick combinations to string together. Zellhuber answers with his own short barrage of punches, but it is the leg kick he throws at its conclusion that has the greater effect. Zellhuber swings with a left hook, and Ogden times a takedown perfectly but cannot get in on the hips to ground the newcomer. Zellhuber thanks him for this attempt with a head kick, but it misses the mark by a great deal. Zellhuber sits down on a pair of punches, but they largely collide with the guard of “Samurai Ghost.” Zellhuber stretches out with a front kick to the body, but it is one and done as Ogden resets. Zellhuber pokes out a jab, and he gets his own body kicked along with three to his lead leg. Ogden swipes with a left hook, and they hand-fight in the center of the cage. Simultaneous jabs allow Zellhuber to reach first, and he chains the jab into a front kick. “Golden Boy” swings and misses, due to the level change and successful takedown landed by Ogden. Zellhuber pops back up, and Ogden takes his back standing. Ogden holds the position until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zellhuber
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 3
Fists are bumped to start off the last round, and the fighters decide to pick up the pace a little by actually punching each other in succession. They trade straight punches before switching to kicks to the body, and one after the other they exchange blows. This slows when Zellhuber backs away and tries to use his range, but he cannot find it as his punches and kicks continually miss the mark. Ogden snipes him and closes the distance to land, only to scoot away before the counter. Zellhuber eats a left hook and tries to pay his man back, but Ogden slips it and shoots in for a double. Zellhuber stuffs it and winds up with a high kick, but it helplessly slaps off the blocking hand, a great distance from Ogden’s mug. Ogden sticks out several jabs, and Zellhuber’s pace falls to single strikes. Ogden has a shin skim off the liver, and he works the lead leg and ducks back as Zellhuber swings wildly. “Golden Boy” leaps in the air with a knee, and Ogden slides away and smacks Zellhuber with a left hand. Zellhuber walks into jabs and throws high-risk, low-reward strikes like a spinning kick, only to hit air. Ogden continues his effective jab to disrupt the brief charges of his opponent, and he sneaks a head kick up that is just blocked in time. “Samurai Ghost” punches the body and evades, and he doubles up on his effective jab to give Zellhuber fits. Zellhuber steps in with an elbow that misses where he aims it, and a second to follow is blocked. Ogden shoots for another takedown, and it is similarly stuffed. Zellhuber swings and misses with a flying knee, and a few punches and kicks from both men lead to an end in this de facto sparring match.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (29-28 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Daniel Zellhuber via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Zellhuber, impressed by his dynamic striking, length, and takedown defense. He notes that Ogden is a grappler who sometimes chooses to strike, which would be a mistake against Zellhuber. Angelo placed a moneyline bet at -230 and notes the line has moved to -270, emphasizing the value of early betting for premium members.
Big Brady is confident in Daniel Zellhuber to win by decision. He praises Zellhuber as a well-rounded fighter with a significant reach advantage (5.5-6.5 inches) and superior striking. Brady criticizes Trey Ogden's performance against Jordan Levitt, where Ogden was outlanded 69-41 and failed to secure takedowns. He doubts Ogden can take down or submit the larger Zellhuber, who is a BJJ black belt. Brady predicts Zellhuber will pick Ogden apart on the feet for three rounds and win a 30-27 decision.
Cody agrees, highlighting Zellhuber's altitude training, durability, and well-rounded skills. He thinks Ogden has no path to victory and that Zellhuber could finish inside the distance. He calls it a top-two ticket play.
Daniel Levi is very high on Daniel Zellhuber, calling him one of the best prospects in a long time. He likes Zellhuber's composure, striking arsenal, and physical attributes (6'1", 77-inch reach). He notes Zellhuber's training at Tiger Muay Thai and with Eric Nicksick, and believes he will knock out Trey Ogden. He placed one unit at minus 245.
Jacob picks Zellhuber, calling him the real deal with dynamic striking and Mexican toughness. He notes that Ogden is a wrestler who doesn't always wrestle, which is dangerous against a striker like Zellhuber. Jacob predicts a knockout, as Zellhuber's power and precision will find the mark. He worries slightly about Ogden's grappling but believes Zellhuber can handle it.
Zellhuber is the better striker and grappler, with length and speed advantages. He has been training at Xtreme Couture under Eric Nicksick, who is high on him. Ogden is a jack of all trades but not at UFC level. Zellhuber should win inside the distance; his inside distance prop at +110 is a better play than the moneyline. He is a solid parlay piece.
Paul thinks Zellhuber is a legitimate prospect with good cardio, chin, and grappling. He notes Ogden looked poor against Jordan Leavitt and that Zellhuber has been training with top guys. He expects Zellhuber to steamroll Ogden.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber by decision. He thinks Zellhuber looks special with crisp striking, while Trey Ogden is underrated but didn't beat Jordan Leavitt, which is a benchmark. He notes Ogden has been submitted before and Zellhuber is young (23) with momentum from the Contender Series. He expects a decision win because Ogden is tough and has a good chin, so a KO is unlikely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 69 of 105 | 65% | 124 of 170 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:17 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 41 of 90 | 45% | 130 of 182 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 1 | 2:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 57 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 46 of 68 | 67% | 52 of 74 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 16 of 46 | 34% | 17 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 56 of 64 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Leavitt | 69 of 105 | 65% | 6 of 21 | 11 of 25 | 52 of 59 | 69 of 102 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Trey Ogden | 41 of 90 | 45% | 10 of 46 | 23 of 29 | 8 of 15 | 38 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Leavitt | 19 of 25 | 76% | 0 of 1 | 6 of 10 | 13 of 14 | 19 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Trey Ogden | 17 of 30 | 56% | 2 of 10 | 8 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jordan Leavitt | 46 of 68 | 67% | 3 of 11 | 5 of 14 | 38 of 43 | 46 of 66 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 16 of 46 | 34% | 3 of 26 | 12 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jordan Leavitt | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Ogden | 8 of 14 | 57% | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s submission grappler vs. submission grappler in this lightweight contest up next, as Leavitt (9-1, 2-1 UFC) and newcomer Ogden (15-4, 0-0 UFC) combine for exactly one finish by TKO or KO while totaling 17 victories by tapout. The Octagon overseer for this one that will get interesting when it hits the ground is referee Chris Tognoni, and a sporting glove touch occurs before his eyes. Leavitt switches his stance several times, coming out awkward but not throwing anything of note. They reach at one another with long kicks, with Leavitt stretching out far for a push kick to the breadbasket. Ogden responds with a spinning back kick, and Leavitt connects with a few low kicks when he plants back down. Leavitt continues to jab with his foot, and Ogden catches him with a left hook as he lets one loose for too long. The single strikes continue to get lobbed at one another without bad intentions on them, and Leavitt goes inside with one to the knee. Ogden walks his foe down and lands a pair of punches to the body, and he nails Leavitt with a kick to the body as Leavitt’s back is against the wall. Ogden makes a dire mistake throwing a high kick, slipping to the ground, and Leavitt pounces immediately to put Ogden flat on his back. Ogden looks to keep an active guard off his back, trying to push his heels off Leavitt’s hips, but Leavitt is able to sneakily remain on top and shuck that off every time. “The Monkey King” pushes forward in the guard, stacking Ogden up and disallowing him from setting anything up. From on top, Leavitt does not do much of note offensively, with an occasional strike coming but far more of a focus on top control. Ogden snags hold of an arm-in guillotine choke, and Leavitt suddenly has to defend in a dangerous position. Ogden locks it up and rolls to mount, and Leavitt is firmly in the danger zone. Leavitt scrambles, fighting off the legs to try to loosen the grip, and he rolls Ogden back over. “Samurai Ghost” keeps the choke as tight as it can be, and Leavitt does not seem remotely concerned, riding out the round and letting the horn sound to force a release in the choke.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 2
The second round begins with both men throwing kicks, and they push towards one another. As Ogden shoots in low, he ends up getting lifted up and the crown of his head cracks straight into Leavitt’s jaw. Tognoni calls the accidental headbutt foul and lets Leavitt recover, and Leavitt appears compromised and in pain, rubbing his chin from the clash of heads. Leavitt signifies he is good to go, and he begins up with his distance-keeping front kick assault. They may be slow and sporadic, but they are effective at keeping Ogden at bay. When Ogden kicks back at him, Leavitt checks the strikes, forcing Ogden to readjust his approach. Ogden rushes forward with a few punches to the body, and Leavitt holds his guard in more of a Philly shell than a standard hand guard position. “The Monkey King” ambles forward in pursuit of a takedown, only for his attempt to get stuffed with ease. Ogden backs his foe up towards the wall with his pressure, punching his way into a possible double-leg takedown try. Leavitt remains upright without much concern, but Ogden does manage to press him into the fencing. They separate, and Leavitt kicks at Ogden’s knee a few times with a stomping side kick. Ogden plods forward, keeping Leavitt backpedaling, but Leavitt does not stop spamming low kicks. Every time Ogden backs him up to the wall, Leavitt somehow manages to clear him out with a few kicks and crafty circling. The chipping leg kicks of Leavitt do enough to keep Ogden from unloading on him, but he cannot get much else offense going. Leavitt attempts another telegraphed takedown, and Ogden pushes him down and stands back up. Leavitt throws to punches, a low kick, and he spins awkwardly with a back fist. The spinning back fist does not connect, and Leavitt shakes his head as the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 3
As soon as the third round opens, Leavitt charges for a takedown. Ogden bowls him over, pushing “The Monkey King” to his back and claiming top position in a hurry. With a quick sweep, Leavitt manages to gain enough distance to push away and stand back up, and the two resume their striking battle. Ogden punches a few times, before pushing shoulder-first into a clinch. With sheer muscle, Ogden rips Leavitt down to the ground. Leavitt does not give this up lightly, but a concerted effort from Ogden allows him to wrench Leavitt down and then turn him to his knees. Leavitt still fights his way back up from his knees, and he fights out of a clinch and stings Ogden with a right hand. Another clean right hand from Leavitt leads to a weak takedown try from Ogden, and Ogden falls over to his back when Leavitt tackles him to the mat. Leavitt lowers himself into Ogden’s guard, and Ogden closes it around him to tie his foe up. Leavitt tries to soften Ogden up a little with short punches, but he abandons punches to grab hold of a can opener by gripping both hands behind the back of Ogden’s head. This does enough to open the guard for Leavitt, but little else comes from “The Monkey King” besides some scrambling to pass guard. Ogden effectively nullifies the attack of Leavitt while punching off his back and pushing off the hips, and the ground exchange is constantly busy from a control perspective. Leavitt stays on top until the final horn calls a stop to this odd fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (29-28 Ogden)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (29-28 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt (29-28 Ogden)
The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Trey Ogden via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Trey Ogden, but is a little worried because it's Ogden's UFC debut and Jordan Leavitt's ground game is dangerous. He notes that Ogden is more well-rounded with solid takedowns and power, while Leavitt is a one-dimensional grappler with subpar striking and wrestling. He thinks Ogden's timing and blast doubles will be key.
Big Brady picks Trey Ogden to win by third-round submission. He notes Ogden is the better striker, wrestler, and has better cardio. He expects Ogden to take Leavitt down and eventually break him, getting a late finish. He acknowledges Leavitt's submission threat but notes Ogden is a BJJ black belt and that Leavitt slows down as fights go on.
Cody picks Ogden, citing his improved striking and wrestling. He thinks Ogden can neutralize Leavitt's grappling and win a decision. He notes Leavitt's limited skillset and Ogden's camp advantage.
Daniel Levi leans Trey Ogden contingent on him surviving the early scrambles. He notes Leavitt is a one-trick pony with good scrambling and submissions but fades if he doesn't get a quick finish. Ogden is more well-rounded, has finished a current UFC fighter (TJ Brown), and trains under James Krause. Levi sees it as 50/50 early but favors Ogden as the fight progresses.
Paul leans towards Ogden, noting his more complete game and better wrestling. He thinks Ogden can out-strike Leavitt and avoid submissions. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Jordan Leavitt by submission, noting that three of Trey Ogden's four losses are by submission. He believes Ogden's grappling-first style plays into Leavitt's strengths, and expects a first-round submission, possibly an arm triangle or rear-naked choke.
Kurt Holobaugh - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Leavitt (-192), Holobaugh (+160)
Round 1
Sticking to the lightweight division, two men who have alternated wins and losses in their last four could use the W to reverse their fortunes a bit. Holobaugh (21-9, 1 NC; 2-6 UFC) may need this one to stick around in his second stint with the promotion, while “The Monkey King” Leavitt (11-3, 4-3 UFC) could have a little wiggle room should he not prevail. With Dana White’s Contender Series right around the corner, who knows how many defeated competitors will be off the roster come Monday. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the cage for as long as this one lasts, and it commences with a swift glove touch. Leavitt springs from side to side as Holobaugh advances towards him, and he pushes out a front kick to set up a takedown. Within seconds, “The Monkey King” wrangles Holobaugh to the mat, where he climbs from side control to half guard to exert heavy top pressure. Holobaugh scoots his way to the fence and gets to a knee, and Leavitt wrenches him back down to the mat and takes his back in a hurry. Holobaugh tries to scramble, and Leavitt slams him down on his face. Holobaugh looks to turn the corner by going after a single on Leavitt, but
Leavitt counters with a guillotine choke and transitions it to an anaconda choke and wraps it up tight. Holobaugh relaxes, possibly too much, and this allows Leavitt to turn him to his back and grip the choke all the way. Leavitt wraps his left leg up and around Holobaugh’s arm to prevent him from defending the submission, and Holobaugh’s efforts are quickly in vain as he goes out cold.
Beltran sees this and intervenes, and Holobaugh wakes up and is upset with Beltran until he learns that he got choked out. This was quick work for the returning Leavitt, who gets his hand raised for the first time in over two years.
The Official Result
Jordan Leavitt def. Kurt Holobaugh R1 1:39 via Technical Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh, calling Jordan Leavitt a one-dimensional jiu-jitsu nerd with poor striking and wrestling setups. He believes Holobaugh's forward pressure, power, and better all-around skills will prevail, though he notes Holobaugh's age (38) and subpar takedown defense as concerns. He placed a half-unit bet on Holobaugh at plus 140.
Big Brady picks Jordan Leavitt due to Kurt Holobaugh's terrible takedown defense, which he describes as a huge gaping hole. He notes that Holobaugh was easily taken down by lesser wrestlers like Hernandez and Trey Ogden. Leavitt is a good grappler with improving striking, and Brady expects him to take Holobaugh down and win a decision.
Matt picks Jordan Leavitt to win by decision. He notes that Holobaugh has poor takedown defense and is too accepting of being on his back, which plays into Leavitt's strength as a top-position grappler. Leavitt is not great on the feet but should be able to grind out a decision. Matt likes the over 2.5 rounds and Leavitt by decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh to finish Jordan Leavitt by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Holobaugh's striking and timing will be too much for Leavitt, and that Leavitt won't get an early submission. He notes Holobaugh's ability to get back up from takedowns and work in the clinch, and that the Apex environment benefits Holobaugh.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 59 of 149 | 39% | 87 of 186 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 6:39 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 71 of 171 | 41% | 106 of 215 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 24 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 26 of 75 | 34% | 26 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 37 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 48 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 26 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 32 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 59 of 149 | 39% | 36 of 117 | 10 of 15 | 13 of 17 | 45 of 129 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 17 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 71 of 171 | 41% | 39 of 122 | 21 of 35 | 11 of 14 | 63 of 160 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 22 of 68 | 32% | 12 of 51 | 3 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 22 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 26 of 75 | 34% | 11 of 49 | 8 of 16 | 7 of 10 | 26 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 30 of 62 | 48% | 17 of 47 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 38 of 78 | 48% | 23 of 58 | 11 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 68 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 7 of 19 | 36% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 7 of 18 | 38% | 5 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)
Round 1
Must-win fights are the name of the game at this UFC Vegas 104 card, as formerly highly touted prospect Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) has fallen on hard times as of late, winner of just two of his last six. Meanwhile, Holobaugh (21-8, 1 NC; 2-5 UFC) is on his third run in the Octagon, and this stint is more successful than others in the past as he has won a few times. Referee Kerry Hatley will take charge of the lightweights in this next match, and they start things off by bumping fists. Both men let their legs fly, smacking one another with heavy low kicks to start off. Holobaugh jabs to the body and follows with a high kick that bangs into Hernandez’ chest, and the Texan parries another advance from Holobaugh. Hernandez stands his man up with a left hand, and he slides away from any counter. Kicks on the inside and outside of Holobaugh’s leg land, and he surges into action, swarming forward with punches that catch Hernandez on the chin. They bang heads briefly, and before Hatley can say something, Hernandez stops and asks if Holobaugh is alright. They get right back to it, chasing one another around with powerful punch combinations. Holobaugh sneaks in a body kick, and Hernandez responds in kind. This happens again, just with Hernandez striking first. The lightweights take turns engaging, and they continue mirroring one another with their exchanges. One lands, the other gives him something back to think about, and the series carries on. Hernandez comes out swinging with big fists, and Holobaugh slips them and tries to do the same. When Hernandez has his gloves bang into Holobaugh’s, Holobaugh retaliates with a clubbing right hand behind the ear and floors Hernandez with another right hand. Hernandez springs right back up and sits down on a left hand that momentarily stuns his opponent. Hernandez uses his jab to set up strikes, pumping it and putting at least one or two behind it. Holobaugh is just as active, racing at Hernandez and getting met with a takedown attempt. Holobaugh considers grabbing the cage, but he instead sets up a guillotine choke and hits the ground on his back. He continues squeezing the submission, and Hernandez signals a thumbs-up before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Round 2
Holobaugh has a fire lit under his belly between rounds, and he channels that by marching Hernandez down and throwing everything he can at him. Punches, knees, elbows and even a spinning wheel kick come from “The Hurt,” who is putting the hurt on Hernandez in the early going. Hernandez is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he fires back at his constantly advancing foe. Hernandez chops at the lead leg a few times, and Holobaugh has to change stances because of it. This does not slow Holobaugh, who instead plods forward throwing hands. Hernandez catches him with a right hand, and Holobaugh drills him with his own overhand right that staggers the Texan. Hernandez uses the wall behind him to gather his bearings, and he pushes off of it and re-engages. He only lands a few strikes before Holobaugh is back to imposing his volume and will on his quickly bloodied opponent. Holobaugh checks a kick and meets Hernandez with a right hand, and Hernandez sits in the pocket trying to trade back. When Holobaugh overswings with a right hook, Hernandez takes the wind out of his sails by nailing a perfect double-leg takedown. Hernandez keeps Holobaugh on his back, working with ground strikes while Holobaugh rolls for an armbar. Hernandez is having none of it, staying as heavy as he can while drumming him with several left hands. Holobaugh sells out for the armbar, and he does not have the right grip so Hernandez is in no danger. “The Great Ape” hammers Holobaugh with several big punches, mixing between smothering top control and fierce offense. The round ends with Hernandez hacking at his foe with elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Round 3
There is one last clap of hands for the lightweights to engage, and Hernandez immediately shoots in for a double and plants Holobaugh on his back. Hernandez moves to side control, and Holobaugh scrambles and sits up. Hernandez drags him down from behind, and he reasserts himself in half guard while isolating an arm-triangle choke. When Holobaugh scrambles, Hernandez is able to jump on top of him and claim full mount for a second before getting pulled back to half guard again. Holobaugh’s scrambles nearly result in him getting caught in an arm-triangle, and Hernandez is a 155-pound lead weight on his chest. Hernandez has his leg wrapped around Holobaugh’s, and when he moves it, Holobaugh explodes back to his feet. It is now punching time, as Holobaugh wants to slug his foe in the chops. Hernandez looks for the takedown that does not come, and Holobaugh marches him down loaded for bear. Hernandez ducks a punch and hits a crucial double, and he lands in half guard and quickly wraps up a head-and-arm choke. Holobaugh is not overly concerned, with Hernandez not able to get leverage on the other side to lock it down. Holobaugh grabs hold of a kimura—could we see a third in consecutive fights?—but it is not there. Hernandez frees his limb and opens up with torrid offense from up top, laying into “The Hurt” with everything he has left. The two go the distance, and the second round may be the one to decide the victor.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.
Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.
Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.
Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.
Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.
Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 92 of 171 | 53% | 171 of 275 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 5:21 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 0 | 89 of 156 | 57% | 115 of 195 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 26 of 65 | 40% | 52 of 100 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 66 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 40 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 18 of 27 | 66% | 53 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:56 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 37 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 92 of 171 | 53% | 58 of 131 | 25 of 30 | 9 of 10 | 74 of 141 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 89 of 156 | 57% | 61 of 120 | 27 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 53 of 114 | 28 of 33 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 26 of 65 | 40% | 15 of 49 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 50 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 31 of 57 | 54% | 15 of 39 | 15 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 39 | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 48 of 79 | 60% | 34 of 64 | 10 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 71 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 36 of 65 | 55% | 28 of 53 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 54 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kurt Holobaugh | 18 of 27 | 66% | 9 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaynan Kruschewsky | 22 of 34 | 64% | 18 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 9 |
Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh with very low confidence, citing his durability and composure. He notes that Kruschewsky is the better striker and more dangerous, but Holobaugh's wrestling could be key if he uses it. He explicitly says he will not bet on this fight unless a ridiculous prop appears.
Cody picks Kruschewsky, citing his youth (26 vs 38), better cardio, and ability to grapple. He criticizes Holobaugh for training at his own gym with no elite partners and expects him to fade. He notes both are BJJ black belts but thinks Kruschewsky's wrestling and durability give him the edge, though he admits it's a close fight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kaynan Kruschewsky, citing his youth, length, and higher pace. He notes Holobaugh's declining takedown defense and lack of urgency to get back up, as seen in recent fights. Vreeland believes Kruschewsky is catching Holobaugh at the right time and will win by decision or possibly a finish.
Holobaugh is a +115 underdog. He is aggressive, powerful, and has solid durability. Kruschewsky is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question mark. Holobaugh can force a pocket exchange and land a big shot to finish. The fight is volatile, but Holobaugh's pressure and power give him the edge.
Paul agrees with Cody, siding with Kruschewsky on volume and power. He thinks the fight will come down to striking and that Kruschewsky has the edge there. He doesn't elaborate much but concurs with the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Kaynan Kruschewsky over Kurt Holobaugh, citing Holobaugh's age and recent loss to Trey Ogden. He notes Kruschewsky is a young up-and-comer with a 15-2 record, though not that young. He mentions Kruschewsky's size and reach advantage, and believes this is Kruschewsky's time more than Holobaugh's.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 29 of 68 | 42% | 129 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 35 of 66 | 53% | 225 of 320 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 11:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 43 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 68 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 39 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 75 of 119 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 47 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 82 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 29 of 68 | 42% | 9 of 43 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 13 | 24 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 35 of 66 | 53% | 22 of 52 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 28 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 of 11 | 9% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 20 of 42 | 47% | 5 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 26 of 41 | 63% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ogden (-155), Holobaugh (+130)
Round 1
Two submission specialists come together in the preliminary headliner, and both men are in desperate need of a win given their track records with the promotion thus far. Holobaugh (20-7, 1 NC; 1-4 UFC) is trying to make his third stint in the UFC the best, while Ogden (16-6, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) is still fuming about a premature stoppage of Nikolas Motta from November that cost him a win bonus. Barring something crazy, a win bonus will be doled out, and referee Mark Smith may be the first to know who that is. The lightweights touch gloves, and Holobaugh puts a few quick combinations together as Ogden sits down on a leg kick and swatting left hand. Ogden doubles up on a jab and eats a body shot, and Holobaugh crowds him and kicks him hard on the lead leg. Ogden feints a takedown, drawing a short flurry of strikes that allows him to shoot and take Holobaugh down to the mat. Ogden gets busy with flailing punches, and Holobaugh is just as busy if not more as he attacks with short strikes and elbows. Ogden lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke, and he gets smacked a few times in the back of the head. Ogden, in half guard, again presses his shoulder down for the arm-triangle, and he bops Holobaugh in the side of the head with short but irritating hammerfists. Holobaugh hooks his legs around Ogden’s to keep him from passing or advancing position, so Ogden sits there comfortably scoring short punches and shoulder strikes. Ogden postures up to land harder blows, and he drives his shoulder in Holobaugh’s chin once more to conclude the frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 2
Holobaugh practically sprints out of his corner to engage, and he eats a leg kick on the way in. Holobaugh tries to come out swinging again, and Ogden kicks his other leg out. Ogden chews up both legs with kicks, and he fakes his way forward and kiais to draw out a reaction. Ogden smacks him in the face with a question mark kick, and he slides away as Holobaugh chases for a counter. Holobaugh lands a body kick, and they trade one-twos. Ogden digs a kick to the ribcage, and he has a leg kick checked when he backs up against the cage. Ogden shoots for a takedown, and Holobaugh stuffs him and rings his bell with two fierce right hands. Ogden jabs once to make him retreat, and he points at Holobaugh after absorbing a low kick. Ogden tries to tie him up when Holobaugh crowds him, and he gets off a few short knees and trips Holobaugh up to dump him on the ground. Ogden threatens with an arm-triangle choke, pressing his shoulder down on the windpipe until smashing them down on Holobaugh’s face. Holobaugh turns to his side in an effort to escape, and Ogden pounds away at him with his free right hand. Ogden’s fist continues to meet face again and again, and Holobaugh can only grab Ogden’s wrist or block his face to defend from the methodical bludgeoning. Ogden fearlessly clubs away, picking up the pace as he looks for a stoppage. Holobaugh recovers well enough to stave off Smith’s itchy trigger finger, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 3
The gloves are touched, and Holobaugh aggressively pursues his man around the cage only to eat a number of jabs and low kicks while trying to close the distance. Ogden stays elusive and does not let Holobaugh crowd him, but he stands still and gets beaned with two right hands. As he shakes it off, he shoots in for a perfect takedown that deposits the TUF winner on his back. Holobaugh closes guard as Ogden works him from on top, and the man now known as “Shamurai” methodically climbs into half guard while continuously beating on his opponent. Ogden grinds out time as he clubs Holobaugh with hammerfists and punches, not allowing Holobaugh to breathe or get anything off of merit on his own side. With a minute to go, Ogden jumps into full mount, and he decides against trying anything reckless. The control on top carries out until the final bell, and Holobaugh gets up and walks off irritated about the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident in Trey Ogden, having placed a half-unit bet on him at -146. He believes Ogden can hang in the striking, get takedowns, and work from top position. He notes that Ogden was winning the striking exchanges in his last fight before the early stoppage, and his grappling should be enough to overcome Holobaugh's BJJ.
Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh, citing his dangerous submissions and Trey Ogden's history of being submitted (three times, twice by guillotine). He notes Holobaugh is a wild man who comes forward, while Ogden is more technical but has been submitted before. He predicts Holobaugh will submit Ogden in the second round.
Cody picks Holobaugh, citing his forward pressure, volume, and submission threat. He notes that Ogden's wrestling may not hold Holobaugh down, and Holobaugh's scrambling and aggression could sway judges. Cody sees Holobaugh as the dog with value.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Kurt Holobaugh, agreeing with the co-host that this is a pick'em fight. He notes Ogden's recent win was against a low-level opponent and that Holobaugh has more power and output. He prefers the underdog in a close fight, citing judging uncertainty.
Ogden showed a complete performance in his last fight (no contest) with seamless striking and grappling. He should dictate the pace from the outside with straight shots and then mix in takedowns. Holobaugh is a BJJ black belt but has poor takedown defense and tends to invite grappling. Ogden's constant movement and jab should cause issues, leading to a decision win.
Paul sides with Cody, noting Holobaugh's experience and dangerous submission game. He thinks Ogden's game plan of taking down Holobaugh is risky due to Holobaugh's ability to scramble and threaten submissions. Paul picks the veteran.
The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh over Trey Ogden, praising Holobaugh's boxing and ground game. He thinks Holobaugh will drop Ogden and then submit him via guillotine choke after Ogden shoots for a takedown. He notes Holobaugh's experience and full training camp.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 61 of 119 | 51% | 85 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 44 of 107 | 41% | 61 of 125 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 58 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 48 of 92 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 61 of 119 | 51% | 46 of 101 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 50 of 106 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 44 of 107 | 41% | 25 of 86 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 87 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 37 of 78 | 47% | 26 of 64 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 30 of 71 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 31 of 74 | 41% | 16 of 58 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 57 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 8 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 24 of 41 | 58% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 33 | 39% | 9 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog despite his 0-6 UFC record, noting that his losses were to top competition like Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos, and Humberto Bandenay. He believes Holobaugh's striking combinations and power will be too much for Austin Hubbard, though he acknowledges Hubbard's chin and takedown ability as concerns. He expects Holobaugh to win and become the Ultimate Fighter champion.
Cody likes Holobaugh's momentum from The Ultimate Fighter, his durability, and power. He thinks Hubbard is a volume pressure fighter but Holobaugh has a chip on his shoulder and nothing to lose. He picks Holobaugh as an underdog to win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Levi picks Austin Hubbard to do his typical thing, turning the fight into a sparring match and not taking risks. He notes that Hubbard is hard to finish and has survived bad spots against high-level grapplers. However, Levi is not laying the price and calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He prefers the over and Holobaugh decision props.
Lucrative James sees value on Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, believing the fight should be a pick'em. He notes Holobaugh has more finishing threat and has faced better competition, while Austin Hubbard relies on toughness and volume but lacks major skills. However, he acknowledges Holobaugh's age (36) and potential to be out-volumed.
Hubbard has added wrinkles to his game, mixing striking with takedowns. He should be competitive on the feet and then use his wrestling to grind out Holobaugh, who struggles with defensive grappling. Hubbard's kicks and range control will set up takedowns. The line has moved to a reasonable -160/-170 range, making him a good play.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard over Kurt Holobaugh. He acknowledges Holobaugh's pocket boxing skills but believes Hubbard's straight punches, front kicks, and low kicks will keep him from standing in the pocket. Hubbard also has offensive grappling and excellent takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. The Guru sees Hubbard's versatility as too much for Holobaugh.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 0 | 66 of 102 | 64% | 115 of 160 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 7:52 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 39 of 115 | 33% | 108 of 189 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 28 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 42 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 19 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 24 of 66 | 36% | 46 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 0 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 68 of 82 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 20 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Moises | 66 of 102 | 64% | 59 of 92 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 28 of 53 | 8 of 11 | 30 of 38 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 39 of 115 | 33% | 16 of 82 | 21 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 93 | 14 of 21 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thiago Moises | 20 of 33 | 60% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 11 of 37 | 29% | 7 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Thiago Moises | 18 of 32 | 56% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 24 of 66 | 36% | 6 of 39 | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 46 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Thiago Moises | 28 of 37 | 75% | 25 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 25 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Lightweights Holobaugh (17-6, 1 N/C) and Moises (11-3) face off in a matchup of DWTNCS alums in need of a win. Referee Marc Goddard makes his first appearance of the evening. Holobaugh grabs a single-leg in the first 15 seconds, using it to run Moises to the fence. The Brazilian defends well, however, and Holobaugh gives it up. They return to circling. Moments later, Holobaugh goes for a single, once again on the right leg, and Moises once again defends. They disengage, and Moises surprises Holobaugh by dropping for a single-leg takedown of his own, running Holobaugh to the canvas. Holobaugh grabs a front headlock on the way down, but Moises moves to the opposite side and Holobaugh wisely lets go. Moises lands in full guard, then passes to half-guard. Holobaugh regains full guard as the “Uh! Vai morrer!” chants start up. Holobaugh goes high with his legs, and Moises postures up. The round ends with Moises still in Holobaugh’s full guard.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 2
Holobaugh lands a right low kick immediately. Moises tags him with a right hook, then throws a front kick right up the middle that touches Holobaugh’s chin. Just under a minute into the round, Moises times Holobaugh for a double-leg, getting in on his hips and driving him to the canvas easily. He scoots Holobaugh over to the fence, working in the Louisianan’s guard. Holobaugh shrimps and attempts to scramble to his feet, and manages to escape. Halfway through the round, Holobaugh clinches and hold Moises against the fence. Holobaugh lands a left hook to the head and a right to the body that get Moises’ attention. With a minute left, Moises tries to drop for a takedown, Holobaugh defends, but Moises comes across the top with a hard elbow to the temple. Right before the 10-second clapper, Holobaugh lands a three-piece combo with Moises backed up against the fence. Moises responds with a pair of level elbow strikes.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises
Round 3
Moises steps inside and hits Holobaugh with a one-two, then another combo. He drops and drives Holobaugh to the ground again. He works from half-guard as Holobaugh tries to hip escape. Moises sticks to him, staying on top and giving Holobaugh nowhere to go. Against the fence, Holobaugh scrambles out but gives up his back. Moises gets his arm under the chin, but without hooks he gives the choke up. Holobaugh reverses briefly, but Moises scrambles and ends up on top again. With under 90 seconds left, it’s been Moises all over Holobaugh all round. In the final half-minute, he flurries from top position, landing some hard shots but not doing enough to get Goddard to step in. This one will go to the judges.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Moises (30-27 Moises)
The Official Result
Thiago Moises def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Burgos | 0 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Burgos | 0 | 17 of 24 | 70% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Burgos | 17 of 24 | 70% | 13 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 21 of 51 | 41% | 14 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Burgos | 17 of 24 | 70% | 13 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 21 of 51 | 41% | 14 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 102 of 226 | 45% | 130 of 256 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 | 82 of 146 | 56% | 95 of 160 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 49 of 107 | 45% | 53 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 38 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 37 of 76 | 48% | 61 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 30 of 48 | 62% | 39 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raoni Barcelos | 102 of 226 | 45% | 88 of 206 | 8 of 12 | 6 of 8 | 88 of 208 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 10 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 82 of 146 | 56% | 76 of 138 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 67 of 129 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raoni Barcelos | 49 of 107 | 45% | 38 of 93 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 45 of 101 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 34 of 68 | 50% | 32 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 62 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Raoni Barcelos | 37 of 76 | 48% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 27 of 64 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 30 of 48 | 62% | 26 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 | |
| 3 | Raoni Barcelos | 16 of 43 | 37% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kurt Holobaugh | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Holobaugh lands an early leg kick, but it's Barcelos exploding inside to pop the American with a speedy right hand. Holobaugh grabs Barcelos in the Thai clinch to deliver a knee, then goes back to leg-kicking as the featherweights circle in the second minute. Barcelos steps inside and thumps Holobaugh with an uppercut before dipping out of range. Barcelos looks to be the speedier fighter but Holobaugh is using good head movement to slip his punches and counter effectively. Barcelos fakes a shot and comes back up to sting Holobaugh with another uppercut. Halfway through the middle of a busy round, it's Holobaugh keeping up the busier pace, while Barcelos lands sporadic but heavy punches. Barcelos completes a quick takedown as they hit the final 60 seconds; Holobaugh is back up quickly but gets blasted by a Barcelos right hand on his way out. Barcelos sprawls on a shot and puts Holobaugh in deep trouble with a tight guillotine, but the American is able to hold out for the final 10 seconds.
Sherdog Scores
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Round 2
Barcelos opens the second round with a looping left hook, then catches an incoming Holobaugh with a straight counter. Holobaugh jabs his way inside, then lands a right to the body. The featherweights are standing toe-to-toe in the middle and throwing heavy shots, with both men landing and neither man budging. Barcelos opts to switch things up with a takedown, but the longer Holobaugh is threatening with a triangle as soon as they hit the mat. Barcelos stands to adjust and then comes back down in Holobaugh's half guard. Holobaugh works his way up against the wall, and they're back on their feet with half the round remaining. Barcelos stings Holobaugh with a punch between the eyes, then hits a lovely trip takedown in the center of the cage. Barcelos stands with 60 seconds left, allowing Holobaugh to get back on his feet. Barcelos tries a spinning kick and gets caught on the turn-around, with Holobaugh jumping on his back to sink in a hook. Barcelos' left side is flush to the fence, blocking Holobaugh's second hook, and keeping Barcelos out of trouble until the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Mike Sloan scores the round 10-9 Barcelos
Round 3
Barcelos comes over the top with a good right hand, gets jabbed backward by Holobaugh, then swings back with a heavy combination when the Louisianan gets caught sleeping. Holobaugh continues to jab his way forward laziily, and Barcelos makes him pay with a blistering left hand. A right hook stings the backpedaling Holobaugh, then another right connects before
an uppercut finally knocks Holobaugh senseless.
Holobaugh crashes to the canvas as referee Herb Dean rushes in to stop the fight, and Barcelos walks off with a highlight-reel knockout in his UFC debut.
The Official Result
Raoni Barcelos def. Kurt Holobaugh via KO (Punches) R3 1:29
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo is confident in Trey Ogden, having placed a half-unit bet on him at -146. He believes Ogden can hang in the striking, get takedowns, and work from top position. He notes that Ogden was winning the striking exchanges in his last fight before the early stoppage, and his grappling should be enough to overcome Holobaugh's BJJ.
Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh, citing his dangerous submissions and Trey Ogden's history of being submitted (three times, twice by guillotine). He notes Holobaugh is a wild man who comes forward, while Ogden is more technical but has been submitted before. He predicts Holobaugh will submit Ogden in the second round.
Cody picks Holobaugh, citing his forward pressure, volume, and submission threat. He notes that Ogden's wrestling may not hold Holobaugh down, and Holobaugh's scrambling and aggression could sway judges. Cody sees Holobaugh as the dog with value.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Kurt Holobaugh, agreeing with the co-host that this is a pick'em fight. He notes Ogden's recent win was against a low-level opponent and that Holobaugh has more power and output. He prefers the underdog in a close fight, citing judging uncertainty.
Ogden showed a complete performance in his last fight (no contest) with seamless striking and grappling. He should dictate the pace from the outside with straight shots and then mix in takedowns. Holobaugh is a BJJ black belt but has poor takedown defense and tends to invite grappling. Ogden's constant movement and jab should cause issues, leading to a decision win.
Paul sides with Cody, noting Holobaugh's experience and dangerous submission game. He thinks Ogden's game plan of taking down Holobaugh is risky due to Holobaugh's ability to scramble and threaten submissions. Paul picks the veteran.
The MMA Guru picks Kurt Holobaugh over Trey Ogden, praising Holobaugh's boxing and ground game. He thinks Holobaugh will drop Ogden and then submit him via guillotine choke after Ogden shoots for a takedown. He notes Holobaugh's experience and full training camp.
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