Cody Durden vs Charles Johnson

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jafel Filho	0	23 of 63	36%	50 of 93	2 of 3	66%	0	1	3:08
Cody Durden	0	34 of 72	47%	91 of 136	5 of 5	100%	1	0	5:14

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Jafel Filho	0	3 of 12	25%	9 of 18	1 of 1	100%	1	2:00
Cody Durden	0	11 of 23	47%	36 of 50	2 of 2	100%	0	1:20
2	Jafel Filho	0	8 of 28	28%	17 of 39	1 of 1	100%	0	0:44
Cody Durden	0	15 of 34	44%	21 of 41	2 of 2	100%	0	0:37
3	Jafel Filho	0	12 of 23	52%	24 of 36	0 of 1	0%	0	0:24
Cody Durden	0	8 of 15	53%	34 of 45	1 of 1	100%	1	3:17

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jafel Filho	23 of 63	36%	10 of 44	7 of 13	6 of 6	16 of 54	7 of 9	0 of 0
Cody Durden	34 of 72	47%	21 of 54	4 of 6	9 of 12	24 of 61	3 of 4	7 of 7

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jafel Filho	3 of 12	25%	1 of 7	1 of 4	1 of 1	3 of 11	0 of 1	0 of 0
Cody Durden	11 of 23	47%	8 of 18	2 of 3	1 of 2	3 of 14	2 of 3	6 of 6
2	Jafel Filho	8 of 28	28%	2 of 19	2 of 5	4 of 4	7 of 26	1 of 2	0 of 0
Cody Durden	15 of 34	44%	6 of 24	1 of 2	8 of 8	14 of 33	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Jafel Filho	12 of 23	52%	7 of 18	4 of 4	1 of 1	6 of 17	6 of 6	0 of 0
Cody Durden	8 of 15	53%	7 of 12	1 of 1	0 of 2	7 of 14	0 of 0	1 of 1

Cody Durden vs. Jafel Filho
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Filho (-600); Durden (+450)

Round 1
A late replacement up a weight class, Durden (17-10-1, 6-8-1 UFC) hopes that he can snap a four-fight skid and exorcise his demons against “Pastor” Filho (17-4, 3-2 UFC). The Brazilian celebrates all but one of his pro wins by stoppage, so the Georgia native will need to be on his best behavior for the next 15 minutes or less. Referee Jason Herzog will keep things official as the two men up at bantamweight throw down. They elect to bump clap hands first.
Despite their seemingly intense beginning, no one throws a strike anywhere close to their intended target for nearly 30 seconds. Filho lazily pushes out a front kick, allowing Durden to respond with an overhand right. Durden rushes forward to tackle Filho to the mat, surprising the Brazilian and forcing him to respond with submission attempts. Durden defends the setups, but in the process, he is turned around with Filho pursuing his own level change. Both men get in a 50-50 position with their arms hooked, but it is Filho who is the quicker man as he stands up and wraps his right arm around Durden’s chest like a malicious seat belt.
Filho also slips his legs around Durden’s to try to disrupt his base, and like a python slowly swallowing a goat, he inch-by-inch separates Durden from his balance to put him down. Filho tries to set something up on top, but the frantic Durden bursts out of the position to get back upright. Filho is quick to chase after him with punch combinations, his front kick at the end of one scoring well. Filho changes stances to time a check of a kick he sees coming, and Durden marches him down and slings him to the mat with a trip. When Durden sits up to drop down strikes, Filho off his back looks for a kneebar. Durden turns out of it to take Filho’s back when they stand, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
Durden races out of his corner swinging, hurling big punches while Filho makes a funny face and slides to the side. Durden walks through a thudding calf kick to further crowd the Brazilian, and his subsequent kick is caught. Filho does not take advantage of this, instead lobbing a right left hand upstairs. Durden fires back with his own hook, and his low kick makes Filho recoil it to the side to take some of the sting out of it. Durden keeps pressuring his foe, and his inside leg kick scores a few more times. Filho tries for a step-in knee, and he gets his jaw jacked with a right hand. Durden catches him with a right hand and trips Filho up. Filho hits his back and offers up an upkick, using the moment of impact to explode back to his feet. Durden nonetheless tackles him to the ground, pulling Filho away from the cage as Filho grabs it, and he backs off to find another angle in.
Durden winds up an axe kick, smashing his heel directly into Filho’s cup. He tries to keep attacking, but Herzog remarks that he just kicked him square in the groin and that he needs to back off. After a short recovery time, Filho is good to go, and he starts to apply pressure. He dings Durden with a right hand as he crowds him to initiate in a clinch and possible body lock to throw, but Durden sees it coming and pushes him back. Filho parries a big right hand, but the second from Durden gets through. Filho plods forward, chasing after the American throwing big hands. Durden is elusive enough to evade the worst of what comes his way, only for Filho to grab hold of him and throw him down like too many bags of groceries, because who needs three trips to the car when you can bring them all in with one overloaded trip, as cans and bottles fall out of the bags while one rips, and you bang into furniture and hope you brought it all inside. Check the eggs before putting them in the fridge first. Filho attacks mightily on top, forcing Durden to turn over so he can hunt for a choke. Before he gets it, the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Filho
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Filho

Round 3
There is a half-hearted hug between the two athletes, and Filho is energized coming out of his corner but does not go wild. Instead, Durden methodically works his way in, using his overhand right to close the distance. Filho ducks in to tie the Georgia native up, and after he tries to manipulate the action, he slashes out with an elbow and a heavy right. Durden breaks off and hunts for a front choke, letting it go to pursue a takedown, ultimate tripping Filho but not getting him down. Both men pop back up, some damage showing under Filho’s right eye, and Durden completes a trip and throw to put the Brazilian on the mat.
Durden looks for an off-angle choke in hopes of otherwise controlling Filho, and the Brazilian’s first roll to escape fails. Filho escapes the grappling exchange but appears totally wiped, slowly trying to stand up. Durden targets a soccer kick square in the ribs, and “Pastor” topples to his back. Durden leaps down to half guard, where he changing his position to take the back. With a single hook in, Durden grabs hold of a neck crank and turns Filho’s head to the left. Filho grits it out but is stuck, with Durden screaming at him or anyone listening while he clubs Filho on the sides of the head. The odd match ends with Durden pumped up and yelling. It may all come down to the first round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden (29-28 Durden)

The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Jafel Filho via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Jafel Filho

Big Brady picks Jafel Filho over Cody Durden. He highlights Durden's struggles with grappling and submission defense, noting he has been submitted five times. He is impressed by Filho's performance against Clayton Carpenter, where he got a first-round Kimura. He predicts Filho will take Durden down and submit him in the first round.

Filho wins by first round submission

"I think Jafer Filho is going to take him down and and probably going to sub him in the very first round."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Jafel Filho

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Filho easily. He notes that Durden is on a terrible losing streak, has been finished repeatedly, and his only recent win is over a retired fighter. Connor also points out that Filho is a strong wrestler and submission artist, and that Durden's short notice makes the line even more justified.

Filho opened at -400, now -650; Durden opened at +330, now +475. Connor thinks the line is sensible.

"i gotta say too like a that feels too wide but b also up at phantom weight like i really don't durden is not yeah it's not a strong flyweight uh filio is a strong has been a strong flyweight …"

MMA Vivisection

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Cody Durden

The host thinks the odds are very wide and that Durden can cause Filho problems due to his scrambly wrestling and Filho's weakness off his back. However, Durden's terrible cardio is a major risk. He says it's an IQ test: impossible to bet Filho, so if you must bet, take Durden. He prefers live betting and will bet Durden +3.5 and over 1.5 rounds.

Durden +3.5 rounds; over 1.5 rounds; prefers live betting

"It's clearly dog or pass. And it's not really up for debate."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Jafel Filho

James picks Filho, expecting him to exploit Durden's grappling weakness with a submission win. He notes Filho's elite jiu-jitsu and early strength, predicting a first-round submission.

submission in round one

"I'll take Jafal Filo to win via submission in this one. ... I would expect that Jafel Filo gets a submission in round one here."

Lucrative MMA

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Jafel Filho

Zane picks Filho confidently, noting that Durden has lost four in a row and six of his last seven, and is getting crushed in most losses. He points out that Durden's confidence is gone after being knocked out, and that Filho is a strong submission artist with good top control. Zane also mentions that Filho is moving up from flyweight, which should make him even stronger.

Filho opened at -400, now -650; Durden opened at +330, now +475. Zane thinks the line is appropriate given Durden's short notice.

"you just got to pick filio like this version of durden against a athletically competent submission artist uh-huh i ain't picking cody he's not a bad wrestler like yeah that too yeah you know it's not like filio in fact …"

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Cody Durden	0	8 of 21	38%	54 of 69	3 of 8	37%	0	3	4:50
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	0	25 of 42	59%	43 of 60	4 of 4	100%	1	2	6:52

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Cody Durden	4 of 8	50%	21 of 25	3 of 6	50%	0	0	1:51
1	Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	9 of 13	69%	15 of 19	1 of 1	100%	1	0	1:37
2	Cody Durden	4 of 11	36%	8 of 15	0 of 1	0%	0	1	0:37
2	Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	12 of 22	54%	20 of 30	2 of 2	100%	0	0	2:51
3	Cody Durden	0 of 2	0%	25 of 29	0 of 1	0%	0	2	2:22
3	Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	4 of 7	57%	8 of 11	1 of 1	100%	0	2	2:24

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Cody Durden	8 of 21	38%	5 of 18	0 of 0	3 of 3	7 of 18	1 of 1	0 of 2
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	25 of 42	59%	20 of 34	1 of 3	4 of 5	7 of 19	1 of 1	17 of 22

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Cody Durden	4 of 8	50%	1 of 5	0 of 0	3 of 3	3 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 1
1	Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	9 of 13	69%	5 of 8	1 of 1	3 of 4	3 of 7	1 of 1	5 of 5
2	Cody Durden	4 of 11	36%	4 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 10	0 of 0	0 of 1
2	Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	12 of 22	54%	11 of 20	0 of 1	1 of 1	4 of 12	0 of 0	8 of 10
3	Cody Durden	0 of 2	0%	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Nyamjargal Tumendemberel	4 of 7	57%	4 of 6	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	4 of 7

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tumendemberel (-148), Durden (+124)

Round 1
What should be a grappler’s delight will treat fans as flyweights Durden (17-9-1, 6-7-1 UFC) and Tumendemberel (9-1, 0-1 UFC) ply their trade against one another. The former has dropped three straight, while the latter’s “Art of Knockout” nickname may be a little off-kilter as the Mongolian celebrates most of his victories via tapout. Regardless of funky, multi-syllabic, the two will meet under the auspices of referee Jason Herzog, and they race towards one another without a touch of gloves to get things started.
Durden peels back right before crashing into his opponent, and they offer low kicks at one another before Durden shoots for a double-leg entry. Tumendemberel defends by jumping guard with a guillotine choke, and both fighters are fresh and dry as a bone. Tumendemberel adjusts his grip to grab hold from a different angle, hanging the choke higher up but not locking it down entirely. Durden slithers his neck out of danger and looks to get off some ground strikes, and it takes mere seconds before Tumendemberel scrambles. Tumendemberel is able to stand, and Durden takes his back from one side and has his gloves grabbed while doing so. Herzog warns the Mongolian of the foul, and Tumendemberel leans to put Durden against the cage behind him to take the weight off his back. Tumendemberel shakes his foe off, and the two reset. Both land a single leg kick before Durden shoots, and once more Tumendemberel attacks a guillotine.
Durden twists all the way around to free his neck far easier this time, and he forces them to stand so he can take Tumendemberel down in a way he wishes. The house lights flicker on and off during the match, and Durden looks to Herzog confused while also stifling a takedown shot. Durden knees a bent-over Tumendemberel in the face, and Tumendemberel lifts him off the ground and slams him down on his back. Durden hits the ground and sets up an armbar, snatching hold of Tumendemberel’s right limb but failing to grip it fully. Tumendemberel wriggles out and retreats, and Durden pops back up. Tumendemberel swings for a big right hand, and Durden shoots for a counter takedown. Tumendemberel flips Durden to his back and elbows him in the face a few times, but Durden is still pressing for the takedown. When Durden flips his foe over, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel

Round 2
Herzog issues Tumendemberel a stern warning to not strike Durden in the back of the head between rounds, and Tumendemberel acknowledges this. They start off the second round with Tumendemberel whipping low kicks, and his long punches keep Durden from recklessly shooting…for a time. Durden does go after a takedown, and he gets tossed to his back and attacks a leglock. Tumendemberel sits down to take the danger out of the ankle/heel lock, and he drills Durden in the side of the head until he legs it go. Tumendemberel grabs hold of Durden’s back and assumes a body triangle, and Durden still looks to turn and break out of it. Durden manages to put Tumendemberel on his back despite a brief body lock, and the Mongolian is once more warned for hooking his fingers inside of Durden’s gloves. The ensuing scramble results in Tumendemberel flipping Durden over, where he holds on with a guillotine choke from his back.
This allows a potential Von Preux submission, but Durden smiles when it is applied and his smiles disappears when he gets belted in the face by Tumendemberel’s free right hand. Herzog is on top of these two as there are possible fence grabs, illegal upkicks and other malfeasance going on, and the moment Durden gets up, Tumendemberel hits a clean tackling double to put the American back down. Tumendemberel smothers while in top control grinding his elbow on his foe’s face while Durden motions to Herzog for some intervention. Tumendemberel drills Durden hard in the back of the head, and Herzog calls for him to aim for the ear. Durden gets to his knees and stands, where he rushes after Tumendemberel and nails him with a one-two. When Durden keeps throwing, time expires, and Tumendemberel punches him clearly after the bell. What are rules?

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 3
Durden opens up with a huge right hand, and Tumendemberel counters him by tackling him to the floor. Durden turns the corner to take the back of the Mongolian, who manages to shimmy and slowly buck Durden off of him. Tumendemberel thumps Durden on the chin with a few more elbows, and Durden returns to a knee in hopes of standing. When Durden stands back up, Tumendemberel mat returns him and takes his back to lock up a body triangle. Tumendemberel starts fishing for a rear-naked choke before getting position, and he nails Durden in the back of the head again. Durden slumps over and finds himself in RNC danger, with Tumendemberel’s arm across his face. Durden hand-fights to defend the submission, and he breaks the grip around his face and abdomen to reverse “Art of Knockout.”
Durden drops down a single right hand and positions himself to attack an arm-triangle choke, and he is in half guard with Tumendemberel answering the proverbial telephone to defend the submission. Durden lays flat on top before jumping to the other side, and Tumendemberel rolls to his knees to break out of it. Durden clings to his man from the back, and Tumendemberel bumps and shakes but Durden has his toes hooked in the cage to prevent him from getting rolled off. Durden hangs on for dear life, but he is inch-by-inch sliding off. Tumendemberel finds the moment to free himself and he lashes out with a hard right hand, all while planting Durden flat on his back. Tumendemberel leans his shoulder down to pressure for a possible arm-triangle, and he stands up and finds himself in Hail Mary heel hook danger. Tumendemberel yanks his limb free and the bell sounds, but he decides he is not done fighting and tries to boot Durden in the face with a soccer kick after the bell. Herzog shoulder-checks the Mongolian to his back, but nothing else happens.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (30-27 Tumendemberel)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (29-27 Tumendemberel)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tumendemberel (29-27 Tumendemberel)

The Official Result
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel def. Cody Durden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Angelo says Cody Durden used to be a dog but is now a shell of himself, while Nyamjargal is a powerful striker who can be hit but is durable. He notes that Carlos Hernandez took down Nyamjargal four times but got dropped, and Carlos is more durable than Cody. He picks Nyamjargal to win.

"Unfortunately I'm picking Nam."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Big Brady picks Nyamjargal Tumendemberel over Cody Durden. He acknowledges Durden is likely more skilled but worries about his durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. Durden has been finished five times by submission and two by KO, and his chin appears to be fading. Tumendemberel has good front chokes and opportunistic submissions. Brady predicts Durden will look good early, get hurt, shoot for a takedown, and get submitted in the second round.

Tumendemberel by second round submission

"Give me Nam Jarle two in a barrel to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Cody picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's cardio issues and hittability. He notes that Tumendemberel only needs to land one shot. He expects a late knockout.

"I'll take the Mongolian fire to get the win."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Cody Durden

Connor picks Durden because he believes Durden's relentless aggression will overwhelm Tumendemberel, who lacks a clean answer for pressure. He notes that Tumendemberel is a dangerous puncher but has been taken down easily in the past. Durden's jab and combination punching should allow him to initiate exchanges effectively.

"I think this is a fight where Durden can press his aggression and two, two and several can, we'll never have a clean answer for it."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Daniel Vreeland picks his friend Cody Durden, acknowledging bias but providing reasoning. He believes Durden's experience against higher-level competition will be key, and that Durden will avoid getting caught early. Vreeland notes that Durden's career is on the line and expects him to give a veteran lesson.

"I'm super biased. Duran is my friend, so of course I'm picking Deran. I think he's going to come out here and give this guy a tour of the octagon."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Cody Durden

James picks Cody Durden as an underdog, believing the fight is close to 50/50 and Durden is the value side. He notes Durden's superior competition and skills, but acknowledges his poor chin and tendency to get hurt. James thinks Durden can dominate if he avoids getting knocked out, but admits it's a tough call due to Durden's durability issues.

"I'm going to pick Cody Durham because he's the underdog here. And if you have an underdog, but you're saying the fight's 50/50, automatically that's the value side."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Tumendemberel has shown improved defensive grappling and durability. He can stop Durden's wrestling and threaten with submissions or power shots. Durden's recent losses show his ceiling. The under 2.5 rounds is appealing as both have finishing ability.

under 2.5 rounds

"The spot that I like most in this matchup is the under two and a half."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Nyamjargal Tumendemberel

Paul picks Tumendemberel, citing Durden's tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Tumendemberel's durability and power. He expects to bet live after Durden wins the first round.

"Two in Denver all wins late. Uh, is my official pick."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Cody Durden

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, despite a personal beef. He believes Durden's grappling and pressure will be too much for Tumendemberel, who lacks experience. He expects Durden to win by decision, noting his toughness and volume.

decision

"I'm going to go with Cody Deren by decision. 2928."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Cody Durden

Zane agrees with Durden, though he expresses disdain for Durden's personality. He notes that Tumendemberel's ideas stop at one punch and that Durden can deal with that. He acknowledges the possibility of Tumendemberel landing a big shot or a submission, but thinks Durden's pressure will be too much.

"Yeah, I agree. Durden is the pick."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Allan Nascimento

Submission R2 3:13 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Allan Nascimento	0	52 of 115	45%	52 of 115	0 of 1	0%	1	0	0:21
Cody Durden	0	57 of 128	44%	57 of 128	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:05

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Allan Nascimento	26 of 58	44%	26 of 58	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
1	Cody Durden	36 of 73	49%	36 of 73	1 of 2	50%	0	0:03
2	Allan Nascimento	26 of 57	45%	26 of 57	0 of 0	---	1	0:21
2	Cody Durden	21 of 55	38%	21 of 55	0 of 1	0%	0	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Allan Nascimento	52 of 115	45%	19 of 69	7 of 17	26 of 29	51 of 114	1 of 1	0 of 0
Cody Durden	57 of 128	44%	47 of 112	5 of 9	5 of 7	57 of 128	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Allan Nascimento	26 of 58	44%	7 of 31	3 of 9	16 of 18	25 of 57	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Cody Durden	36 of 73	49%	28 of 61	5 of 8	3 of 4	36 of 73	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Allan Nascimento	26 of 57	45%	12 of 38	4 of 8	10 of 11	26 of 57	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Cody Durden	21 of 55	38%	19 of 51	0 of 1	2 of 3	21 of 55	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cody Durden vs. Allan Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nascimento (-260); Durden (+210)

Round 1
Due to Durden (17-8-1, 6-6-1 UFC) stepping in to replace Rafael Estevam on short notice, he has agreed to face “Puro Osso” Nascimento (21-6, 3-1 UFC) at a catchweight of 130 pounds. This wrestler vs. grappler affair will be officiated by referee Mark Smith, who claps the athletes in as they touch gloves to signal their relief in being able to fight and get paid this weekend.
Durden bounces up and down on his heels, possibly presenting looks for takedowns, but then springs forward and drills the Brazilian with an overhand right. Durden pops Nascimento with a jab, and he smacks the front leg with his shin. Durden evades a kick and hurls an overhand right, and he pushes out a front kick that is caught and forces him to the mat. Durden lets him back up and puts a jab right in the Brazilian’s face. Nascimento hammers the lead calf with a kick, and a second puts Durden on notice. Durden races ahead throwing punches, and Nascimento slips to the side and beats him with another thudding kick. He scores one more when Durden comes his direction, and Durden still crashes the pocket and checks Nascimento’s chin with a left hand on the cheek. The jabs from Durden are marking up Nascimento’s cheek, and he is not far from splitting it open with sheer volume.
Nascimento keeps his back to the cage and tosses out kicks, and he sharply counters Durden with a right hand and plants one more calf kick for good measure. Durden punches through the guar to reach the taller Brazilian, and he catches him with a right hook and makes Nascimento double over. Nascimento reels and backs away, and Durden knocks him back to the wall with an overhand right. Nascimento goes back after his leg kick, and Durden punches him in the guts to back him away again. Nascimento checks a kick and lets his hands go, and his head kick does reach the top of the head. Durden kicks and shoots for a takedown, and Nascimento stands him up and skirts away from the offense he anticipates. Durden still marches him down, his leg lump and welted from the kicks, so that he can put his hands on Nascimento’s jaw. They trash one another with heavy leg kicks, and Nascimento stings Durden and forces him to shoot on him. Nascimento stands back to let it fly by him, and the horn sounds to end what became a close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
Durden starts out the round as aggressive as ever, and he scores on the Brazilian early. Nascimento slows him down with a steady diet of calf kicks, and his right hands continue to find their home while Durden rushes after him. They clash shins when kicking at the same time, and then bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Nascimento backs off, with Smith telling them to be careful, and he rushes in behind a knee. Durden shakes it off and responds with a plethora of punches, only slowing when Nascimento tries to introduce his shin to the Georgia native’s chin. Nascimento whiffs on a looping left hand, and he has a leg kick checked. Nascimento stands Durden up with a right hand, and he gets his head snapped back in the counter. Nascimento pounds on the front leg, and he eats three punches down the middle like they are nothing. Durden gets clipped with a left hand, constantly pressing forward even when under fire. Nascimento rattles him with a long one-two, wrapping his hand around the back of the neck but not using it for a takedown.
Both met let their hands go, and Nascimento puts Durden down with a counter right hand.
Durden ducks to shoot, and he finds himself immediate ensnared in an anaconda choke. Nascimento has the submission virtually completed the moment Durden hits his knees, in what may be the worst choice that “Custom Made” could have made. Durden turns to his back, but there is no way out, so he has to give up.
Durden taps until Smith intervenes, and Nascimento has now recorded 15 submissions in his 22 pro wins. He asks for a ranked opponent, specifically calling out Steve Erceg for his next outing.

The Official Result
Allan Nascimento def. Cody Durden R2 3:13 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Allan Nascimento

Angelo picks Allan Nascimento, but is hesitant. He notes Nascimento's jiu-jitsu is excellent but his takedowns are poor, so he relies on being taken down to sweep. He thinks Cody Durden's wrestling and cardio have declined, and he gets tired. However, he worries that if Durden doesn't wrestle, Nascimento won't finish on the feet, leading to a low-scoring fight. He may avoid it in DFS.

"I think Alan wins this fight. I think Alan could potentially finish this new version of Cody Durden, but I'm... probably going to avoid it."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Allan Nascimento

Big Brady picks Allan Nascimento, noting Cody Durden is on short notice, 34 years old, and has taken a ton of damage in recent fights. He highlights Nascimento's size, length, and excellent grappling. He believes once the fight hits the ground, Nascimento will have a huge advantage and predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission, minus 300 favorite

"I like Nasnto here. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Allan Nascimento

Connor also picks Nascimento, noting that Durden is super vulnerable on defense and aggressive to a fault. He thinks Nascimento's submission game is dangerous enough to catch Durden, but he wouldn't be surprised if Durden rides out a win on top. He mentions Durden's bigger signature wins but still leans Nascimento.

"I think I'll take Nascimento and one thing I do know about him is that he's durable."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Allan Nascimento

Nascimento's BJJ will get Durden into bad spots and he will eventually pull off a submission. The host's favorite spot is the under 2.5 rounds at even money.

under 2.5 rounds at even money

"His BJJ should help him get Duran into some bad spots and from there I expect Nasameto to eventually pull off a submission. Although my favorite spot in this fight would probably be the under two and a half at …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Allan Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Allan Nascimento, noting his size advantage at catchweight and superior grappling. He compares Nascimento's dominant grappling against Jafel Filho to Cody Durden's struggles against Jake Hadley. He worries about Durden taking the fight on short notice and predicts Nascimento wins by decision or submission in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round

"I'm going to say that Allan Nascimento gets this one done. Another thing to mention here as well, Allan Nascimento out-grappled Jafel Filho round after round."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Allan Nascimento

Zane picks Nascimento to catch a submission, noting that Durden sells out so hard on offense that he makes himself vulnerable to submissions. He acknowledges that if Nascimento doesn't submit him, Durden could grind out a win. He mentions Nascimento's durability and solid submission game.

submission

"I'm thinking to take Nascimento to catch sub but like you know if he doesn't this could be a very scrappy hard fought fight."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Jose Ochoa

KO R2 0:11 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Cody Durden	0	9 of 41	21%	12 of 47	2 of 4	50%	0	0	1:42
Jose Ochoa	1	30 of 79	37%	52 of 107	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:13

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Cody Durden	0	9 of 39	23%	12 of 45	2 of 4	50%	1:42
1	Jose Ochoa	0	25 of 73	34%	47 of 101	0 of 0	---	0:09
2	Cody Durden	0	0 of 2	0%	0 of 2	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Jose Ochoa	1	5 of 6	83%	5 of 6	0 of 0	---	0:04

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Cody Durden	9 of 41	21%	6 of 34	1 of 4	2 of 3	8 of 37	0 of 1	1 of 3
Jose Ochoa	30 of 79	37%	18 of 42	7 of 28	5 of 9	24 of 71	3 of 5	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Cody Durden	9 of 39	23%	6 of 32	1 of 4	2 of 3	8 of 35	0 of 1	1 of 3
1	Jose Ochoa	25 of 73	34%	13 of 36	7 of 28	5 of 9	22 of 68	3 of 5	0 of 0
2	Cody Durden	0 of 2	0%	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Jose Ochoa	5 of 6	83%	5 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 3	0 of 0	3 of 3

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cody Durden vs. Jose Ochoa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ochoa (-180), Durden (+150)

Round 1
Trying to break out of a bit of a rough patch, having lost three of four, Durden (17-7-1, 6-5-1 UFC) needs a win bad and wants it even more because this match takes place at home. A product of American Top Team Atlanta, he will welcome wild-swinging Ochoa (7-1, 1 NC; 0-1 UFC) to the ATL. When the dust settles between these two flyweights, one will return to the win column—barring something unexpected. Referee Kevin MacDonald will be on top of the action. The two combatants bump fists, and Ochoa comes out erratically with bouncing, jittery movement and kicks. Ochoa stabs the body with his toes extended, and he does this two more times before Durden comes back at him with a left hand. Ochoa continues working the body with the same move, and he spins with an elbow on the counter try from Durden. Durden shakes it off and is ready to trade, but it is Ochoa who lands in bunches. Ochoa’s movement allows him to avoid the worst that Durden tosses at him, while keeping a solid range with his legs outstretched constantly. Durden latches onto Ochoa’s right leg in pursuit of a single, wrangling the younger man to the mat and lacing his hooks around them for a moment. Durden slithers to the side in an attempt to take the back, but Ochoa knows this is coming and turns himself around while standing up. Durden knees his way out of the clinch, and Ochoa thanks him for this by kicking him in the fast-reddening lead leg. Ochoa slips a punch to connect with three, with Durden’s chin holding up but taking damage early. Ochoa tags the Georgian with a fast combination, and he grabs hold of a guillotine when Durden shoots and knees him to break up the shot. Ochoa goes to the body with a left, and he spams two head kick from the same leg and chains punches and another kick behind it. Durden tries to bully him back, only to absorbs an elbow and a mean left hand. Ochoa is a meat grinder, marching Durden down and putting him through his paces. Durden takes several more blows on the chin, and in response he unloads a right hand from the depths that stuns Ochoa to his core. This allows Durden to easily change levels and take Ochoa down, but Ochoa hits his back and starts firing off upkicks aplenty. Durden lowers himself down through the flailing legs, dropping down a few standing-and-ground punches. As soon as Ochoa locks up a triangle choke, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ochoa

Round 2
The second round kicks off with Durden grinning like a banshee. As he moves to the center of the cage, Ochoa meets him there. Durden reaches out with a right hand to initiate an exchange, and the younger fighter dips back and clubs him with an uppercut that shakes the Covington, Georgia, native up badly. As Durden wobbles back to put the fence behind him, Ochoa just misses with a flying switch kick aimed at his mug.
The moment he plants his feet, Ochoa dodges a left hook and unloads a blistering short left hand that jacks Durden in the jaw and sends him careening to the floor. While MacDonald is sprinting to the fighters to wave things off, Ochoa hammers the local with two or three more fierce right hands.
MacDonald gets in to stop the fight, and Durden’s eyes are wide and rolling around in his noggin. Ochoa walks off and celebrates, while Durden looks around confusedly and briefly protests but needs to be helped back to his feet, further justifying the stoppage. Ochoa earns his first UFC victory in big way, putting down a gritty grappler like Durden in the latter’s home territory.

The Official Result
Jose Ochoa def. Cody Durden R2 0:11 via KO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Angelo leans Cody Durden because he is battle-tested and relentless with takedowns. He notes that Jose has good takedown defense but hasn't faced a wrestler as determined as Cody. He acknowledges Cody's suspect chin but believes his pressure will be key.

"I'm probably going to lean Cody here."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Jose Ochoa

Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa by second-round submission. He likes Ochoa's striking and sneaky submission game, and notes that Cody Durden has been taking damage and has four submission losses. He believes Ochoa is dangerous everywhere and will either knock out Durden or snatch a submission.

second round submission

"I'm going to say OOA wins this fight by second round submission."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jose Ochoa

Ochoa's superior striking and aggressive BJJ will overwhelm Durden. He will eventually secure a submission and force the tap.

submission

"Look for him to utilize his superior striking... it's a very good and active aggressive BJJ shoulder look to get this fight to the ground... slaps on a submission and forces the tap."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Jose Ochoa

The Guru picks Jose Ochoa, impressed by his performance against Lone'er Kavanagh where he showed finishing ability and hurt him to the body. He notes Ochoa is a 'nasty finisher' with submission skills, and expects a finish in the first two rounds, possibly by body shot or submission after hurting Durden.

Jose Ochoa by finish in the first two rounds

"Joseé Ooa is really good and I'm going to take him to win and it's [ __ ] am I going to take him to like dude he looked really good against Lona Kavanaaugh and he should not have looked …"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Joshua Van

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Joshua Van	0	70 of 217	32%	74 of 223	2 of 8	25%	0	0	3:14
Cody Durden	0	165 of 304	54%	184 of 323	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:20

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Joshua Van	14 of 33	42%	18 of 38	2 of 3	66%	3:14
1	Cody Durden	30 of 49	61%	46 of 65	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Joshua Van	27 of 99	27%	27 of 100	0 of 3	0%	0:00
2	Cody Durden	72 of 136	52%	73 of 137	0 of 0	---	0:09
3	Joshua Van	29 of 85	34%	29 of 85	0 of 2	0%	0:00
3	Cody Durden	63 of 119	52%	65 of 121	0 of 0	---	0:11

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Joshua Van	70 of 217	32%	60 of 203	6 of 8	4 of 6	70 of 217	0 of 0	0 of 0
Cody Durden	165 of 304	54%	131 of 262	22 of 27	12 of 15	144 of 279	19 of 22	2 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Joshua Van	14 of 33	42%	13 of 30	1 of 2	0 of 1	14 of 33	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Cody Durden	30 of 49	61%	24 of 39	2 of 4	4 of 6	15 of 32	13 of 15	2 of 2
2	Joshua Van	27 of 99	27%	22 of 93	4 of 5	1 of 1	27 of 99	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Cody Durden	72 of 136	52%	57 of 119	14 of 15	1 of 2	71 of 134	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Joshua Van	29 of 85	34%	25 of 80	1 of 1	3 of 4	29 of 85	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Cody Durden	63 of 119	52%	50 of 104	6 of 8	7 of 7	58 of 113	5 of 5	0 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-155), Durden (+130)

Round 1
Speed is the name of the game in this flyweight affair, as skilled grappler Durden (17-6-1, 6-4-1 UFC) will try to ply his trade against offense-first Houstonian by way of Myanmar Van (11-2, 4-1 UFC). The two 125ers looking to climb the ranks share similar stoppage rates of 71% and 73%, respectively, which is rare at this division and something referee Chris Tognoni should keep in mind when officiating this contest. Fists are bumped, and they come into close range to trade. Durden lands a low kick and comes up short on a one-two. Van connects with a hard low kick, and Durden fires back with a surprisingly effective high kick and a punch salvo. Durden punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and he gets elbows in the side of the head when trying. Durden drops all the way down to fish for Van’s ankle, and he lifts “The Fearless” up and deposits him to his seat. Van methodically works his way back to his feet with Durden pressuring and leaning on him, and he hacks with a few elbows before Durden drags him back down to the floor. Van strikes with elbows to the side of the dome, and Durden takes a moment to cover as he does not like absorbing them. Van muscles his way up to his feet, but Durden is on him like a cheap suit. Van rips the body with a right hand to break away, and he rushes forward behind his jab. Durden fires off a left hand, and the two trade blows in the pocket. Van pierces the guard with a few jabs and works the body in subsequent strikes, and he snaps the head back with a sharp uppercut. Van gets Durden’s attention, slipping an uppercut to get Durden’s attention. Van slams his shin on the front leg of his foe, and he walks square into an uppercut that Durden is spamming. As Van meanders forward, Durden stops him with a double-leg entry. Van defends with elbows until Durden switches to a single-leg takedown attempt, and Van is able to set his leg down while keeping himself upright. Durden tries to lift Van up in the air, but he settles for grinding out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
The flyweights race out of their corners to re-engage, and engage they do. Both men load up on wild strikes, and Van rocks his opponent with a flurry. Durden fires back, and he keeps Van honest but is not taking him out of the equation. Van shrugs off a head kick to do some damage with punch combos, and he sprawls to stop a takedown and clips Durden with an uppercut. Van chains his punches together, and Durden’s balance is starting to betray him as his knees wobble. Van knocks his man back with an accurate series of punches, and he drills the midsection and is ready to stop a takedown. Durden flops to his back, and Van tells him to get up. Tognoni has him stand up, and they start up throwing fire again. Durden lands, and all Van does is smile and swing back with a vengeance. Durden’s power is starting to slip due to fatigue, while Van is accurate and putting high volume that marks Durden’s face up on the nose and eyebrow. Durden overswings, and he eats a crisp overhand right for his effort. “The Fearless” fearlessly engages in a slugfest, landing first and last in exchanges. Van is not loading up, instead allowing Durden to do that so he can capitalize on the wild, lumbering swings and retaliate sharply. Van stops a takedown in its tracks so he can drive home an uppercut, and he wades away from a spinning back fist and slides in to connect with a right hand. Durden’s inaccurate left hook leads to three punches busting him in the chops. Durden keeps swinging hard, and the telegraphed strikes are either missing entirely or sliding off the target and getting rolled with. Van puts a one-two on the chin, and Durden responds with a left and a big right. Van strings together five punches in rapid succession, leaning back to dodge “Custom Made” and forward to connect cleanly. When Van eats the power strikes, he does not budge, while every other blow seems to draw a reaction out of the slowing Durden. The round ends with the two trading leather.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
A glove touch commences the final frame, and Van is immediately in striking range as he flusters Durden with movement and footwork. Durden fights behind his jab, and he puts some mustard behind a follow-up right hand. Van no-sells the strike and nails Durden with two powerful low kicks, and Durden swipes back at him with left hooks. Van goes high and then to the body and low calf, mixing things up to keep Durden guessing. Durden tries a Superman punch from up close, only fur Van to block it and knock him back a step. One-twos from both sides land on the guard, and Van clubs his foe on the temple and drops Durden to a knee. Durden signals that it was not a big deal, drawing Van into a brawl. Yan’s offense is gradually breaking Durden down, and he connects with a particularly rough left hand that makes Durden fall to his back. Durden is forced to stand back up, and he keeps his right hand covering the eye socket that might have been hurt. Van strings three punches into a knee to the liver, and Durden shells up and launches a huge right hand that goes wide. Van stifles a takedown and misses with a haymaker, only to drift back when Durden spins with a back fist. Van slips and counters his foe, and Durden wobbles but stays on his feet. A jab from Van makes Durden frown, but it does not slow him down as he hurls huge hooks anywhere he can aim them. Van walks him down and connects cleanly, knocking Durden’s mouthpiece out. Tognoni calls time during a moment to break to replace Durden’s gumshield, and the two resume their torrid brawl. Durden may be leading with his chin, but he is swinging with everything he has. Van hurts him with a few hooks, a knee and a head kick, and Durden is hanging on tight but just taking damage. Durden swings it out until the final bell, putting an end to an exciting striking affair.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (30-27 Van)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Cody Durden via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-26, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden as a dog, citing Durden's relentless pressure wrestling and cardio as key factors. He believes Durden's takedowns will frustrate Joshua Van and deplete his confidence. Angelo notes both fighters are chinny but expects Durden to focus on winning rather than brawling. He is monitoring the line movement and may bet if the odds widen further.

Plus 138 as a dog, might bet plus 3.5 spread if odds widen

"Cody Duran is going to be the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Joshua Van

Cody picks Van but expects a tough first round. He notes Durden's wrestling and fast starts, but thinks Van's cardio and volume will take over in later rounds. He suggests live betting Van after the first round.

"Van for me, but I expect round one to be difficult."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Cody Durden

Connor picks Durden, though he hates to do it. He notes that Durden starts fast and pressures aggressively, which could overwhelm Van, who tends to start slow and build into fights. Connor points out that Van has been taking too much damage recently and is fighting too frequently, which raises concerns about his durability. He also mentions that Durden's pace and wrestling could be a problem for Van, who has shown vulnerability early in fights.

"I think i'm gonna pick durden here. They hate to do it."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Daniel admits bias as Durden's friend but provides analysis: he believes Durden's well-rounded attack and ability to exploit Van's uncomfortable ranges will lead to a win. He expects Durden to mix takedowns and striking effectively.

"I think that Cody Duran with a more well-rounded attack."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Joshua Van

Van successfully bounced back from his knockout loss to Charles Johnson by defeating Edgar Chairez. He will take that momentum, showcase improved takedown defense, keep the fight standing, and eventually catch Durden slipping to get a knockout victory.

knockout victory

"I believe you'll be able to take that momentum showcase his improved takedown defense keep this fight in The Standing Room and eventually catch dirt and slipping leading to a knockout victory for Joshua van"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Paul picks Durden as an underdog, citing his wrestling and fast starts. He notes Van's high fight frequency and potential wear. He thinks Durden can win the first two rounds and hold on, but acknowledges the risk.

"I actually think I will take Durden and hope he wins the first and wins the second."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Cody Durden

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, citing Van's tendency to get rocked on the feet and Durden's improved hands and grappling. He thinks Durden's size and takedowns will be too much for Van, and that once Durden gets a lead he is hard to catch. He predicts a 29-28 decision based on the first two rounds.

"I'm going to go Cody Duran I'm going to go of Cody Duran over Joshua van"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Cody Durden

Zane also picks Durden, expressing concern for Van's health and development. He notes that Van is inexperienced and makes bad decisions under duress, and that Durden's early pressure and wrestling could exploit that. Zane points out that Van has been in wars recently and is fighting too often, which could lead to him getting knocked out or losing a decision. He believes Durden is a tough out and that Van's ceiling is higher but not yet realized.

"I think i'll pick durden too. I do not like it."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Matt Schnell

Submission (ninja choke) R2 0:29 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Cody Durden	0	40 of 83	48%	40 of 83	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Matt Schnell	0	34 of 78	43%	37 of 81	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:10

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Cody Durden	40 of 80	50%	40 of 80	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
1	Matt Schnell	33 of 77	42%	36 of 80	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Cody Durden	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
2	Matt Schnell	1 of 1	100%	1 of 1	0 of 0	---	1	0:10

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Cody Durden	40 of 83	48%	32 of 73	3 of 3	5 of 7	38 of 81	2 of 2	0 of 0
Matt Schnell	34 of 78	43%	31 of 73	3 of 5	0 of 0	34 of 78	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Cody Durden	40 of 80	50%	32 of 71	3 of 3	5 of 6	38 of 78	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Matt Schnell	33 of 77	42%	30 of 72	3 of 5	0 of 0	33 of 77	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Cody Durden	0 of 3	0%	0 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Matt Schnell	1 of 1	100%	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cody Durden vs. Matt Schnell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Durden (-335), Schnell (+220)

Round 1
Due to the late nature of this flyweight pairing coming together—Durden (16-6-1, 5-4-1 UFC) will serve as a replacement to Alessandro Costa—the two men next will be fighting up in weight at bantamweight. Both short-notice Durden and Schnell (16-8, 1 NC; 6-6, 1 NC UFC) are hovering around the .500 mark in the promotion, so a win may go a long way while a loss could spell disaster. Referee Chris Tognoni will serve as the Octagon ranger for this contest, and gloves are touched to get things going. Durden moves to the center of the cage and is caught with an early uppercut. Durden backs off and finds another way in, and Schnell clips him twice more in a speedy exchange. Schnell points at him but does not capitalize on hurting and reddening Durden, instead allowing Durden to walk him down. Durden elects to fight to his disadvantage, brawling wildly and backing Schnell up a big. Durden lands several body shots until Schnell fires back, and Schnell’s attacks are more powerful and result in Durden thinking twice. Durden lands a right and eats two rights back. Durden unleashes a fury of punches, and Schnell shakes him up with furious counters that are heavier and faster. Durden wipes his hands and blinks it out, and he backs away as Schnell kicks him in the ribs. Durden wings a few punches that come up short, and Schnell times an outside leg kick that buckles the knee. Durden catches his man on the end of a left hand, and Schnell fires back with a right. Durden clubs him with a hard right, and Schnell skirts to the side and prepares an uppercut that lands on the nose. Schnell clacks the front leg again, and he allows Durden to overswing so he can counter effectively. Durden still manages to get off his right hand a few times, and Schnell’s head movement and footwork keeps him from absorbing any flush. Schnell snipes his man a few times until Durden pushes out a front kick to slow him down. Schnell ducks a head kick that skims his hair, and the two throw caution to the wind and brawl again. Schnell gets tagged with a left hand on the nose, and he winds up and retorts with a flurry of fists. Durden connects at the end of a right hand that cuts Schnell’s eyebrow, and Schnell bites down on his gumshield and blasts Durden in the face with an overhand right. Durden spins with a wheel kick that brushes past his opponent, and Schnell gathers his thoughts and punches his way into a short combo. They trade left hands, and Schnell lands three while Durden gets off two. The two trade right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
The fighters are ready to pick up right where they left off, and after a few low kicks, Schnell lands a big left hand. After connecting, Schnell shoots in with a telegraphed takedown, and Durden’s eyes go wide and he grins as he snatches hold of a guillotine choke. Schnell twists around, and Durden chains his submission into a ninja choke. When “Danger” keeps turning, he finds himself in even graver danger, as Durden locks the choke down and turns Schnell to his back. As soon as Schnell is on his back, he taps with both hands in a panic as the submission was likely to put his lights out. Durden releases the choke when Tognoni gets between them and goes over to the cage to shout at someone in the audience. His team manages to calm him down, and he celebrates his handiwork with his wife and corner. While Durden gives his post-fight interview, Schnell removes his gloves and places them in the center of the cage to signal his retirement. Instead of looking for a moment on the mic, Schnell departs the cage, overcome with emotion.

The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Matt Schnell R2 0:29 via Submission (Ninja Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden (referred to as Alexandre Costa) because he is a solid striker with real power, good takedown defense, and durability, while Matt Schnell has been in too many wars and his chin is failing. He believes Costa will blast Schnell's legs and crack him in the head, leading to a knockout. He notes that Schnell is not dangerous enough to put Costa away.

"Alexandre Costa should win here he should dominate here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by knockout. He notes Durden is stepping in on short notice but looked career-best in his last fight before getting caught. Brady believes Durden's striking will be the difference and that he just needs to land one clean shot. He warns about Schnell's dangerous grappling but thinks Durden will avoid the ground and finish the fight inside the distance.

fight finishes inside the distance

"give me Duran Duran by knockout and it should be a fight that that finishes inside the distance"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Matt Schnell

Cody picks Schnell, arguing that Durden's short notice, weight cut issues, and lack of corner are major red flags. He notes Schnell's superior experience and cardio, but admits Durden's power and aggression could end it early. He sees value at +250 but is not highly confident.

"I will take match nil"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Daniel is biased as a friend of Durden, but he believes Durden's power and Schnell's weak chin will be the deciding factor. He acknowledges Schnell is well-rounded and technical, but thinks Durden will eventually land a knockout. He notes that Schnell has been knocked out in recent fights and that Durden is aware of Schnell's chin. Despite the short notice, Daniel is confident Durden will get the win.

"I do think eventually at some point Cody Duran's gonna get his second UFC knockout so uh let's let's [ __ ] go Cody Duran... I will never pick against Cody Duran."

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Matt Schnell

Paul is intrigued by Schnell at +250, noting Durden is taking the fight on a week's notice, moving up to 135 lbs, and may not have a coach. He acknowledges Schnell's chin issues but believes his experience and cardio advantage could pay off if he survives early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and leans Schnell.

"maybe matchell is the PRP pick Underdog some series plus money that actually could come through but you can't be ton confident on confident on it"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Matt Schnell

The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Cody Durden. He calls Schnell the 'chiniest fighter in UFC history' but believes Alexandro Costa is explosive and powerful. He notes Schnell got wobbled by Sumudaerji and predicts Costa will put him away brutally in round one.

round one finish

"alesandro Costa is going to put him away in round one brutally"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Bruno Silva

TKO (punches) R2 2:58 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Bruno Silva	0	28 of 63	44%	31 of 68	1 of 1	100%	3	0	2:35
Cody Durden	1	42 of 73	57%	45 of 77	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:23

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Bruno Silva	0	24 of 57	42%	25 of 58	0 of 0	---	0	0:12
1	Cody Durden	0	22 of 47	46%	23 of 48	0 of 1	0%	0	0:12
2	Bruno Silva	0	4 of 6	66%	6 of 10	1 of 1	100%	3	2:23
2	Cody Durden	1	20 of 26	76%	22 of 29	0 of 1	0%	0	0:11

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Bruno Silva	28 of 63	44%	20 of 52	5 of 7	3 of 4	27 of 62	1 of 1	0 of 0
Cody Durden	42 of 73	57%	31 of 57	6 of 10	5 of 6	24 of 51	1 of 1	17 of 21

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Bruno Silva	24 of 57	42%	16 of 46	5 of 7	3 of 4	24 of 57	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Cody Durden	22 of 47	46%	13 of 33	5 of 9	4 of 5	21 of 46	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Bruno Silva	4 of 6	66%	4 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 0	3 of 5	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Cody Durden	20 of 26	76%	18 of 24	1 of 1	1 of 1	3 of 5	0 of 0	17 of 21

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Cody Durden vs. Bruno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Durden (-122), Silva (+102)

Round 1
In the only other fight on the billing beyond the main event with UFC-ranked fighter, top-15 Durden (16-5-1, 5-3-1 UFC) would like nothing more than to put a rough face crank submission loss in December behind him. He will meet fellow grappler Silva (13-5-2, 1 NC; 3-2, 1 NC UFC) in the center of the cage, in what could be an interesting clash of styles on the mat. Referee Chris Tognoni is ready whether it lasts three minutes or all three rounds, and he commences the match as the 125ers bump fists. Durden is quick to lash out with a body kick, and he walks Silva down and marks Silva’s left eye up early with punches. Durden changes levels, and the two bonk heads as Tognoni tells them to be careful. Durden keeps chasing after his opponent, and Silva pushes him away and lands a sweeping leg kick. Silva races forward to tie the American up, and he lands a knee to the guts while Durden looks to trip Silva up. Durden scores a right at the break, and chases to land another long right hand before Silva can zip away. Silva pushes off with the ball of his foot, and he jabs the body and avoids a front kick. Durden clips his opponent with three punches, and he ducks when Silva tries to spin with a back fist to counter. Durden sits down on a chopping kick, and he evades a scooping uppercut and stops a takedown effort in its tracks from the Brazilian. Durden surges forward, fighting behind his jab, and he swipes with a left hook on his way in. Durden attacks with a leg kick, and he is countered with an overhand right. Durden connects with two hooks, and he meanders forward pawing with hooks until committing to one up top and another to the body. Silva misses with another big uppercut, but his front kick does land cleanly. Durden winds up with a huge right hand that busts into Silva’s nose, reddening his cheek and nose, and he wears it well. Durden parries a body shot, swipes out with a left hand and drills Silva with a right hand. Silva cries foul, and Tognoni pauses the action and calls for a replay to confirm that Durden’s fingers grazed the eyeball. The Brazilian needs a doctor to come in and wipe away his eye, and Tognoni goes to calmly warn Durden for the accidental foul. Silva informs Tognoni that he can continue, but needs a little more time to recover—he has four more minutes, and no booing crowd to urge him to return to combat sooner than he should. Silva tells Tognoni his eye is spasming, but he can keep going, and they get back to it after two minutes of recovery. Both men rush at one hellbent for leather, and the proceed to throw it hard. Both men tag the other, and Durden is warned for outstretched fingers. Silva kicks low as blood trickles out of his nostril, and Durden turns with a back kick that plants square in the solar plexus. Durden points to his success, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Durden

Round 2
The flyweights clock in for the second round, and Silva is smiling and ready to return to action. He strikes first in the form of a leg kick, and Durden answers him with a twitchy right hand. Durden finds success with it and beans the Brazilian with two more, putting “Bulldog” on skates. Silva backs off and shoots for a takedown, and Durden catches a brabo choke. Silva turns the proper direction, and he fights off a subsequent anaconda choke. Durden tries a third time to land a similar submission, and Silva survives all three and lowers himself to his back. Silva tries to tug off the fence links to find a better angle, and Durden lays flat on top of him. Silva wall-walks to his knees, and Durden is on him and drags him back down when Silva pops up. Durden stays glued to his man, but Silva explodes back to his feet and walks Durden down.
“Bulldog” walks through a jab and drills Durden in the jaw with a ferocious uppercut, knocking his mouthpiece clean out and sending the American crashing to the canvas. Silva pounces and unloads with relentless right hands, pouring it on and drawing blood that sprays the mat as he beats Durden down. Silva continues landing as Tognoni asks for Durden to fight back, and when Durden’s arms go limp, he intervenes.
This is a crazy comeback for Silva, who turns the tables with just one punch and may have performed some unauthorized dental work on the soon-to-be-unranked contender. This sport never fails to surprise, and no fighter is ever totally safe while the cage door is locked and both competitors are still in the fight.

The Official Result
Bruno Silva def. Cody Durden R2 2:58 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Angelo picks Cody Durden because his aggressive wrestling pace will be too much for Bruno Silva, leading to a close decision. He notes that Silva has power and could land a knockout, but Durden's chin is a concern. He does not mention a bet, but is confident in the pick.

"I think the wrestling pace is going to be too much I think Cody squeezes out a close decision here"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Bruno Silva

Cody picks Bruno Silva, highlighting his striking advantage and the fact that he accepted the fight before Durden, indicating confidence from training together. He notes Silva's defensive wrestling is solid and that Durden will struggle to take him down. He also mentions Silva's submission win over Tyson Nam as impressive.

"I got Bruno Silva man so that's that's the pick for me on this one."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Daniel Vreeland picks his friend Cody Durden, citing Durden's superior wrestling, volume, and training with Pantoja. He acknowledges Bruno's explosive power and opportunistic submissions but believes Durden will outwork him everywhere. Vreeland warns against underestimating Durden's standup and submission defense.

"I think Cody outworks this guy um and everywhere too like on the feet I think he's gonna out volume him and when he decides to mix in his takedowns as long as you know he doesn't get caught in …"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Bruno Silva

Silva is a +100 underdog. He has a slick boxing approach and BJJ black belt, and his takedown defense and ability to work back to his feet should frustrate Durden. Durden will put himself in danger with his wrestling, and Silva can capitalize with a submission or TKO. Silva's inactivity (16 months) is a concern, but his skills should be enough to get the win.

submission

"I'm going to call Bruno Silva Club in sub as I think that deran will put himself into too much danger and I think Silva is dangerous enough to eventually find that big shot and put Duran away"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Bruno Silva

Paul also picks Bruno Silva, agreeing with Cody's points about Silva's striking and the familiarity from training. He thinks Silva has an advantage on the feet and that Durden will be in trouble if he tries to grapple. He also notes the submission prop as a possibility.

"Bruno Silva is also the pick for me."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Cody Durden

The MMA Guru picks Cody Durden, trusting in his activity. He notes Bruno Silva has been inactive, fighting only once since 2021, while Durden has been consistently fighting. He highlights Durden's wins over Jake Hadley and Charles Johnson, and believes Durden is more disciplined and focused. He also mentions Durden is bigger for the division.

"I'm going to trust in the activity as I said Bruno Silva's been a little bit out of the game recently"

THE MMA GURU

View all 17 fights

Charles Johnson - Fight History

SCHED vs Asu Almabayev

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Jun 27, 2026

WIN vs Bruno Silva

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Charles Johnson	0	85 of 162	52%	110 of 189	0 of 6	0%	0	0	0:06
Bruno Silva	0	73 of 136	53%	101 of 171	0 of 8	0%	0	0	3:43

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Charles Johnson	18 of 34	52%	18 of 36	0 of 2	0%	0:00
1	Bruno Silva	12 of 19	63%	15 of 22	0 of 2	0%	0:53
2	Charles Johnson	33 of 60	55%	38 of 65	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Bruno Silva	27 of 53	50%	37 of 66	0 of 3	0%	1:21
3	Charles Johnson	34 of 68	50%	54 of 88	0 of 3	0%	0:06
3	Bruno Silva	34 of 64	53%	49 of 83	0 of 3	0%	1:29

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Charles Johnson	85 of 162	52%	43 of 101	30 of 46	12 of 15	61 of 132	24 of 30	0 of 0
Bruno Silva	73 of 136	53%	52 of 106	14 of 21	7 of 9	71 of 131	2 of 5	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Charles Johnson	18 of 34	52%	7 of 18	7 of 10	4 of 6	11 of 26	7 of 8	0 of 0
1	Bruno Silva	12 of 19	63%	6 of 11	2 of 4	4 of 4	12 of 19	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Charles Johnson	33 of 60	55%	17 of 37	10 of 16	6 of 7	29 of 56	4 of 4	0 of 0
2	Bruno Silva	27 of 53	50%	18 of 39	6 of 9	3 of 5	27 of 52	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Charles Johnson	34 of 68	50%	19 of 46	13 of 20	2 of 2	21 of 50	13 of 18	0 of 0
3	Bruno Silva	34 of 64	53%	28 of 56	6 of 8	0 of 0	32 of 60	2 of 4	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Charles Johnson vs. Bruno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-200); Silva (+170)

Round 1
Keith Peterson is the referee. Silva with an inside low kick early. Johnson shoots behind a punch. Silva defends and they’re in the clinch. Johnson lands a hook on the break. Johnson fakes a shot behind a left. Johnson with a front kick. The American shoots from long distance and Silva defends easily. Silva shoves his foe into the fence. Silva backs off. A right lands for Johnson, who follows with a leg kick. A sharp right connects for the Brazilian. Silva kicks the body. Johnson appears to be bothered by the pressure. Silva clinches again and locks his hands. Johnson lands an elbow in close quaters and Silva backs off. Silva lands in an exchange. They trade low kicks. Silva with a right as Johnson moves forward. Johnson partially lands a high kick. Johnson mixes in a low kick and a front kick. Silva answers by kicking the body. Silva keeps the pressure on late in the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 2
Johnson kicks the body and they trade in the pocket. Silva blocks a head kick. Silva is pressuring and Johnson is forced to defend a takedown. Johnson lands a knee and shoves his foe away. A jab lands for Johnson before Silva shoots. Johnson denies the takedown and the flyweights clinch against the fence. Silva backs off and Johnson lands a combination. A kick by Silva lands below the belt and time is called. Johnson is ready to go right away. They trade low kicks. Silva again looks for the takedown, shoving Johnson into the fence. Johnson lands a knee before they separate. Johson lands a kick and Silva counters. A straight left gets through for Johnson. Silva clinches behind an uppercut and they break quickly. Johnson fires a high kcik, but it doesn’t land clean. Another uppercut for Silva, who clinches with his opponent again. Johnson lands a short elbow in close. Silva lands a combination against the fence. A body kick lands for Johnson. The flyweights clash heads in the clinch and Johnson seemed to get the worst of it. Time is called. Silva fires a front kick and it lands low. It’s the second low blow of the round, and Johnson is in more pain than he was from the first foul. No point is taken, however. Johnson grabs a leg but lets it go. Silva with a body kick before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 3
Johnson catches a kick and lets the leg go. Johnson lands a left and they clinch. Inside leg kick for Johnson, and they clinch in the center of the cage. Silva shoves Johnson into the fence. Silva drops low in pursuit of the takedown, but Johnson defends well. Jonson jabs and they trae in close quarters. Both men land before the flyweights clinch. They battle for position before separating. This time Johnson initiates the clinch. Silva lands a combination at range and he’s pressuring Johnson, who is in defense mode. Silva ties up with his opponent against the cage. Johnson denies a takedown attempt. Johnson with a high kick on the break. Silva tries a spinning back elbow. Johnson with kicks and a right hand in hopes of creating space. Silva closes the distance again, shoving Johnson into the fence. He briefly gets the American down, but he’s up in short order. Silva moves in and lands an uppercut before clinching. They battle it out in the clinch, and Johnson lands a nice knee. Silva moves forward and goes back to the uppercut. Jonson responds with a slashing elbow. Silva keeps moving forward. but Johnson is landing plenty of offense. Both men are slugging it out in the waning moments of the fight. Johnson is finding the mark quite often. Another elbow lands for Johnson. They trade right up until the final horn, with Silva getting in a few more shots.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Bruno Silva via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27) R3 5:00

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Charles Johnson but admits nervousness due to Bruno Silva's one-punch knockout power. He notes Johnson's excellent footwork, hand speed, and cardio, and believes if Johnson gets going early, he can avoid the big shot and win a decision. He acknowledges Johnson has been knocked out before but thinks his high IQ will prevail.

"Charles Johnson is going to be the pick. I'm a little nervous."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson to win by third-round knockout, but expresses wariness due to Johnson's recent knockout loss and chin concerns. He likes the stylistic matchup, noting Silva's front-loaded power and tendency to fade, but worries Johnson might get knocked out early. He calls Johnson inconsistent.

"give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by third round knockout."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Bruno Silva

Cody picks Bruno Silva as a dog, citing his wrestling, power, and durability. He notes Johnson's takedown defense issues and recent knockout loss. He thinks Silva can win by decision or submission.

"Bruno Silva's could be primed to pull off an upset here for sure."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Charles Johnson

Connor also picks Charles Johnson, emphasizing that Bruno Silva lacks the ability to adjust strategically, while Johnson can figure out his opponent as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's wins come from opponents making the same mistakes, which Johnson does not do. Connor sees Johnson's adaptability as the key factor.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185

"I think the, the, I'm going to go with Johnson as well. It's, it's really unclear to me, honestly. Like I, I, I think either guy could go out, but it's essentially like ever present danger from Bruno Silva versus …"

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

James picks Charles Johnson to win by decision, but expresses concern about Johnson's quick return after a knockout loss. He notes Johnson's superior cardio, volume, and tools, but worries about his durability and potential recklessness. He believes Johnson is the better fighter overall but is uncertain how he will approach the fight.

"I definitely going to pick Charles Johnson here."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

The host picks Johnson to win by decision, expecting him to outclass Silva on the feet. He highlights Johnson's reach advantage, defensive grappling, and ability to get back to his feet quickly. He believes Johnson's striking will be too much for Silva, and that Silva's power and grappling won't be enough to overcome Johnson's technical edge.

"I think Johnson should be able to stay away from that power. I think he picks Bruno Silva apart."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Bruno Silva

Paul picks Bruno Silva, noting he bets him every fight. He likes his wrestling and power, and thinks he can outgrapple Johnson. He expects a close fight but Silva has value at plus money.

"I pretty much bet Bruno Silva every single fight. I don't see any reason to stop now."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)

Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson, believing he will walk down Bruno Silva as the fight progresses. He notes Johnson's size advantage (5'9" vs 5'4") and reach, and that Silva fights in bursts and lacks consistent finishing ability. He predicts a TKO in the second round.

Prediction: second round TKO

"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson by TKO in the second round."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Charles Johnson

Zane picks Charles Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and evolve during fights, unlike Bruno Silva who tends to make the same mistakes repeatedly. He notes that Silva's wins come against fighters who repeat errors, while Johnson adapts and finds solutions. Zane acknowledges Silva's danger but believes Johnson's flexibility gives him the edge.

Silva opened at +145, currently +160; Johnson opened at -170, currently -185

"I'm still going to pick Johnson. I don't think that I'm, I think Perez is always capable of pulling out performances like that in Paris is an ancient either."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Alex Perez

KO R1 3:16 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Alex Perez	2	39 of 75	52%	55 of 94	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:14
Charles Johnson	0	8 of 25	32%	8 of 25	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Alex Perez	2	39 of 75	52%	55 of 94	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:14
1	Charles Johnson	0	8 of 25	32%	8 of 25	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Alex Perez	39 of 75	52%	27 of 60	9 of 10	3 of 5	33 of 67	4 of 6	2 of 2
Charles Johnson	8 of 25	32%	4 of 14	3 of 9	1 of 2	8 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Alex Perez	39 of 75	52%	27 of 60	9 of 10	3 of 5	33 of 67	4 of 6	2 of 2
1	Charles Johnson	8 of 25	32%	4 of 14	3 of 9	1 of 2	8 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Charles Johnson vs. Alex Perez (128.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-205), Perez (+170)

Round 1
All UFC fights stateside will plug on under the Paramount+ streaming service, so the distinction between early prelims and the “ESPN” or “Fox Sports” prelims is less significant than before. Former UFC Fight Pass maven Ant Evans suggested the breakdown of cards shift to the main card—no change there—the undercard, where the four-fight prelim slot prior to the main card is placed; and any bout before those nine should be considered a prelim. Nevertheless, the action continues in a catchweight affair as the skidding Perez (25-10, 7-6 UFC) failed to make the flyweight limit by two and a half pounds. A quarter of his purse goes to “InnerG” Johnson (18-7, 7-5 UFC), whose unique hairstyle is starting to have a mind of its own. The athletes will be officiated by referee Jason Herzog, and Perez offers his foe an apologetic glove touch that is accepted.
Perez darts straight to the center of the cage, where he tracks Johnson down and parries a body kick to race towards him. Johnson dings him with a right hand and slides out of the way to reset. Perez goes wide on a right hand, and he nearly gets his chin checked with a head kick. Johnson checks a few leg kicks and stays right before Perez, circling on the outside while Perez walks straight towards him. A Perez barrage comes up short, although a second effort does clip Johnson on the chin. Johnson fires back with a high kick, and Perez unloads with a vicious left hand that stuns Johnson and sets him down. Johnson pulls the cage to stand back up, still badly rocked, and he stands in front of Perez as if he wants to bang it out. Perez has no fear, and he drives a few knees into his jaw that hurt him once more. Johnson takes a right hand on the chin that shakes him up and forces him to bounce off the fencing to keep his feet about him, and Perez is all over him.
Perez marches down “InnerG” with impunity, and Johnson is being held up by the cage when Perez blasts him. One more knockdown is registered by Perez, and Johnson drops to his knees to desperately shoot. Perez takes anything Johnson offers and walks through it to tear in to the damaged fighter who has fought back to his feet again.
When Johnson lifts up an anticipatory knee, Perez loads up on a left hand and sends Johnson careening to the canvas for the umpteenth time, and Herzog has seen more than enough and waves things off.
Johnson still gets up on autopilot and runs towards Perez as Perez has walked away to celebrate his handiwork, and he even gets hold of Perez’ leg when Perez is trying to climb the cage wall. Herzog manages to cool Johnson down, who was damaged and in a bad way for much more than a minute. This is a crucial victory for Perez, who had only gotten his hand raised once in his last six outings. It is a bit of a tough break for Perez, because while he won and likely staved off a pink slip, his missing weight makes him eligible for a finish bonus. It takes champion Joshua Van mere moments to post on social media taunting the defeated Johnson, who laughs off any chance at a rematch.

The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Charles Johnson R1 3:16 via TKO (Punch)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alex Perez

Angelo picks Alex Perez despite his four-fight losing streak, arguing the losses are to elite fighters and he was winning against Asu Almabaev before a mistake. He praises Perez's striking, low kicks, and wrestling. He notes Charles Johnson is a friend of the show but believes Perez can pull off the upset. He is very low confidence, rating it 51 out of 100.

This might be a spectacular plus three and a half. If he stays as big of an underdog as he is now, a spectacular plus three and a half bet. ... Charles Johnson's notably a slow starter. So if he takes his time and he doesn't get after it and Alex kind of stays in his face, pushes the pace a little bit, he'll definitely win a round. I don't definitely don't see him getting finished. So plus three and a half bet is likely the way I'm going to go here.

"I think Alex Perez can pull this off. He is freaking good. He's good. ... On a scale of one to 100, I am picking Alex Perez at 51."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Big Brady notes Perez finds ways to lose, often getting finished when he's winning. He expects Perez to win round one but fade as Johnson works into the fight. He predicts Johnson will finish Perez, likely by submission, as Perez has been submitted many times.

Johnson by submission

"I'm gonna take Charles Johnson here. I think he actually finishes Alex Perez. When Perez is losing fights, he's getting finished more often than not."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Cody picks Charles Johnson, citing Perez's poor cardio and tendency to make mistakes. He notes Johnson's improved takedown defense and striking volume, and believes Johnson will win the later rounds. Cody sees Johnson as a live underdog and expects him to win by decision or late stoppage.

"Johnson's no spring chicken. Like he's also 34 years old at flyaway. It's a little bit older. But the mileage, the injuries, it's it's energy Johnson for me. So I I got Charlie to get it done."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Charles Johnson

Connor questions whether Alex Perez is actually a good flyweight, noting his record of 1 win in 6 fights over 5 years. He sees Perez as a bully on the front foot who lacks durability and defensive striking. Johnson, on the other hand, is clicking better, finding his timing earlier, and has a persistent, awkward style that can frustrate opponents. Connor believes Johnson can survive Perez's hot start and take over, possibly getting a finish.

"I think i'm gonna pick him here to be alex perez because what we are seeing is that charles johnson is clicking better and better."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to finish Alex Perez. He notes that Perez has lost five of his last six and has questionable heart and fight IQ. Vreeland believes Johnson's slow-starting style matches up well against Perez, who tends to fade. He predicts Johnson will find the chin or neck of Perez for a finish.

"I think Charles Johnson's going to come out here and finish Alex Perez."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

James picks Johnson, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He notes Perez often gets finished and that Johnson is more locked into MMA. He predicts a finish, possibly by submission or knockout.

"I think he's a much better striker than Alex Perez. I really do."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Alex Perez

The host picks Perez as an underdog, citing his forward pressure, leg kicks, and gas tank. He believes Perez can dictate the pace and outwork Johnson, who can be gunshy. He notes Perez's recent losses are to high-level competition and sees value at +175. He predicts Perez by decision or knockout.

Perez by decision or knockout

"I love him as an underdog at plus 175. This is a no-brainer shot to take on Perez."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Johnson's improvements and Perez's bad luck. He notes Johnson's knockout power and volume, and believes Perez's cardio will fail him. Paul likes Johnson on the money line and also considers the knockout prop.

Charles Johnson by knockout

"Charles Johnson by like by knockout isn't too bad of a look. I don't think he's like plus 500 or up I would take probably."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson, citing his win over Joshua Van and his range advantage. He notes that Johnson's uppercut game will be effective against Perez's head-tucking hooks. He predicts a close decision, possibly with Perez having a good third round.

decision

"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson getting this one done by close decision."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Charles Johnson

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Perez's wrestling control time is often minimal and that he walks into danger. Johnson has a great flow and timing, and his ability to pressure and exhaust opponents is key. Zane also mentions that Johnson knocked out the flyweight champion and has a Bobby Green-like quality. He thinks Johnson can survive Perez's early pressure and win.

"I think johnson's going to be really annoying for him to fight. Johnson's like visibly not scared he's yeah, he likes for you to come forward and chase him."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Lone'er Kavanagh

KO R2 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Charles Johnson	1	44 of 81	54%	52 of 89	1 of 5	20%	0	0	0:32
Lone'er Kavanagh	0	59 of 120	49%	60 of 121	1 of 2	50%	1	1	0:59

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Charles Johnson	0	14 of 25	56%	14 of 25	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:10
1	Lone'er Kavanagh	0	36 of 65	55%	37 of 66	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Charles Johnson	1	30 of 56	53%	38 of 64	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:22
2	Lone'er Kavanagh	0	23 of 55	41%	23 of 55	1 of 2	50%	1	1	0:59

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Charles Johnson	44 of 81	54%	18 of 49	6 of 10	20 of 22	37 of 71	4 of 6	3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh	59 of 120	49%	32 of 83	21 of 26	6 of 11	53 of 111	6 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Charles Johnson	14 of 25	56%	3 of 11	2 of 4	9 of 10	14 of 24	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Lone'er Kavanagh	36 of 65	55%	17 of 37	14 of 18	5 of 10	34 of 63	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Charles Johnson	30 of 56	53%	15 of 38	4 of 6	11 of 12	23 of 47	4 of 5	3 of 4
2	Lone'er Kavanagh	23 of 55	41%	15 of 46	7 of 8	1 of 1	19 of 48	4 of 7	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.

Odds are -200 for Kavanagh; Angelo thinks Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog.

"Loner Kavanaaugh is probably the pick just given all the other circumstances."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision

"I'm going Kavanaaugh to win a close decision in this one."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Lone'er Kavanagh

The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

odds comment: -180 is a great entry point

"We're so used to seeing Kavanaaugh at super chalky odds, but here at minus 180. I think this is a great entry point against a guy in Charles Johnson who may not have the power to get the respect from …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.

Charles Johnson by decision; underdog +170

"Charles Johnson's going to get the upset win in my opinion. He's an underdog. He's plus 170."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Ramazan Temirov

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Charles Johnson	0	66 of 156	42%	87 of 183	0 of 3	0%	0	0	1:18
Ramazan Temirov	0	55 of 139	39%	59 of 146	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:23

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Charles Johnson	15 of 41	36%	15 of 41	0 of 1	0%	0:00
1	Ramazan Temirov	21 of 44	47%	21 of 44	0 of 0	---	0:03
2	Charles Johnson	14 of 37	37%	21 of 46	0 of 1	0%	0:50
2	Ramazan Temirov	19 of 46	41%	20 of 48	0 of 1	0%	0:03
3	Charles Johnson	37 of 78	47%	51 of 96	0 of 1	0%	0:28
3	Ramazan Temirov	15 of 49	30%	18 of 54	1 of 1	100%	0:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Charles Johnson	66 of 156	42%	28 of 104	23 of 32	15 of 20	46 of 129	20 of 27	0 of 0
Ramazan Temirov	55 of 139	39%	42 of 117	13 of 22	0 of 0	46 of 118	9 of 19	0 of 2

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Charles Johnson	15 of 41	36%	5 of 26	3 of 6	7 of 9	13 of 38	2 of 3	0 of 0
1	Ramazan Temirov	21 of 44	47%	14 of 33	7 of 11	0 of 0	19 of 39	2 of 4	0 of 1
2	Charles Johnson	14 of 37	37%	7 of 22	5 of 10	2 of 5	10 of 32	4 of 5	0 of 0
2	Ramazan Temirov	19 of 46	41%	14 of 41	5 of 5	0 of 0	16 of 39	3 of 6	0 of 1
3	Charles Johnson	37 of 78	47%	16 of 56	15 of 16	6 of 6	23 of 59	14 of 19	0 of 0
3	Ramazan Temirov	15 of 49	30%	14 of 43	1 of 6	0 of 0	11 of 40	4 of 9	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Ramazan Temirov

Angelo slightly leans towards Ramazan Temirov, citing his power and the judges' tendency to favor damage over clean technique. He acknowledges that Charles Johnson is more technical and could win a decision if he fights perfectly, but believes Temirov's power and aggression might sway the judges. He does not bet on this fight due to its razor-thin nature.

No bet; fight too close

"I am going to slightly ever so slightly lean OV here because I think that power perception might matter to the judges"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing his superior experience, cardio, and output. He notes that Ramazan Temirov relies on power shots but flyweight knockouts are rare, and Johnson has never been finished. He expects Johnson to win by decision, and even made a bet that if Johnson wins, he'll buy a 'Scallet Gang' t-shirt.

Johnson by decision; bet on Johnson moneyline; if Johnson wins, Big Brady will buy a Scallet Gang t-shirt; if Johnson wins in round 3, Big Brady will shave his head into a scallet

"I'm going Charles Johnson here I'm going to be picking him to win this fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Ramazan Temirov

The host believes Temirov is a future title contender and will showcase his potential this weekend. He highlights Temirov's footwork, angle cutting, and explosive approach in the pocket, expecting his power shots to be more impactful. He predicts a knockout within the first two rounds.

knockout in first two rounds

"I believe tamarov is a future title uh Contender and I believe believe we'll see that potential this uh weekend as he goes out there and utilizes his footwork uh angle cutting and explosive uh approach especially when he gets …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson over Ramazan Temirov. He acknowledges Temirov's danger and finishing ability but doubts he can land a KO shot on Johnson, who has a great chin, good cardio, and range. He notes Johnson's win over Joshua Van and close fight with Sumudaarji. He predicts a decision win for Johnson, possibly a late TKO if Temirov slows down.

PrizePicks: Ramazan Temirov under 56.5 significant strikes (using code Guru)

"I'm leaning towards Charles Johnson for this pick... I'm going to go of Charles Johnson getting this one done by decision 2928 maybe even a late rounds TKO."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Sumudaerji

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Charles Johnson	1	65 of 150	43%	84 of 177	2 of 6	33%	0	0	2:58
Sumudaerji	0	75 of 144	52%	78 of 149	0 of 3	0%	2	1	0:50

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Charles Johnson	0	19 of 50	38%	33 of 64	0 of 2	0%	0	0	1:16
1	Sumudaerji	0	24 of 43	55%	24 of 43	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03
2	Charles Johnson	1	30 of 60	50%	34 of 72	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:03
2	Sumudaerji	0	23 of 44	52%	25 of 48	0 of 0	---	2	1	0:30
3	Charles Johnson	0	16 of 40	40%	17 of 41	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:39
3	Sumudaerji	0	28 of 57	49%	29 of 58	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:17

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Charles Johnson	65 of 150	43%	42 of 113	15 of 22	8 of 15	49 of 123	5 of 10	11 of 17
Sumudaerji	75 of 144	52%	41 of 96	7 of 15	27 of 33	68 of 135	7 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Charles Johnson	19 of 50	38%	12 of 42	5 of 5	2 of 3	16 of 44	3 of 6	0 of 0
1	Sumudaerji	24 of 43	55%	12 of 26	2 of 3	10 of 14	20 of 39	4 of 4	0 of 0
2	Charles Johnson	30 of 60	50%	20 of 41	5 of 11	5 of 8	19 of 43	0 of 0	11 of 17
2	Sumudaerji	23 of 44	52%	15 of 32	2 of 5	6 of 7	22 of 42	1 of 2	0 of 0
3	Charles Johnson	16 of 40	40%	10 of 30	5 of 6	1 of 4	14 of 36	2 of 4	0 of 0
3	Sumudaerji	28 of 57	49%	14 of 38	3 of 7	11 of 12	26 of 54	2 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Charles Johnson vs. Su Mudaerji
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-225), Mudaerji (+185)

Round 1
Once with his back firmly against the wall, Johnson (16-6, 5-4 UFC) has given himself plenty of breathing room with a three-fight win streak. While he has plenty of momentum on his side, the matchmaking results him in facing Mudaerji (16-6, 3-3 UFC), who has lost his last two. Whether fortune continues to smile on “InnerG” or the Chinese fighter gets back in the win column, referee Mark Smith will be there for it every step of the way. Fists are bumped, and Johnson walks through a leg kick to immediately swarm Mudaerji with a flurry of fists. Johnson pressures Mudaerji up to and against the wall, kneeing him when they tie up. Johnson lifts knees to the gut while “The Tibetan Eagle” is pinned against it, and Mudaerji tries to get away and ultimately wrenches his way out and raps a right hand on the side of Johnson’s dome. Johnson shakes it off and plods forward, absorbing a few punches and a flush calf kick so he can charge in with his own offense. Johnson misses his strikes, dodges a low kick and keeps marching forward. Mudaerji sticks his man with a calf kick and jabs him to mix things up, and Johnson preemptively picks his leg up after these kicks start to add up. Mudaerji goes on the inside with two kicks, and Johnson sits down on a right hook to drive Mudaerji back. Mudaerji steps in with an elbow, and he flicks out a few jabs and splits the guard with a left. Mudaerji batters the front leg with a kick, and Johnson eats a jab and drops his hands to reset. Johnson checks a kick when crashing the pocket, and he loads up on power punches to the body. Johnson ties him up, and he knees his man in the chest and thighs while Mudaerji is warned for grabbing inside the glove. Mudaerji lashes out with an elbow to break, and he keeps his volume high by picking jabs and low kicks from his preferred range. Johnson crowds his man and unleashes a big right hand, only to get pulled into a Thai clinch and a sharp knee on the chin. Johnson frantically chases after his opponent, loading on up big strikes and forcing Mudaerji to ricochet off the fencing. Mudaerji dodges and weaves the worst of the attacks coming his way, and Johnson backs him against the wall and loads up on him. Johnson lets him have it until the bell sounds mid-exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji

Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to get going in the second stanza, and Johnson dashes out of his corner to engage. Mudaerji is prepared to defend the initial blitz, succeeding in staving off the most threatening of the strikes. Mudaerji keeps shifting and moving actively, occasionally getting backed to the wall but never truly cornered. Mudaerji catches Johnson coming in with a right hand, and he scores two low kicks before Johnson can get to him. Johnson goes high with a kick that bounces off the guard, and he stomps the knee with his foot twice. Mudaerji shifts to the left to tag Johnson with a straight strike, and he flicks out a front-leg side kick and a number of punches to follow. Mudaerji wings big right hands that land behind the head, and he stumbles Johnson coming forward thanks to a low kick. Johnson finds his range with a left hook, but it is one-and-done as Mudaerji keeps moving and did not take the brunt of it. Mudaerji lines up a left hook around the guard, and Johnson barely blocks it in time. Mudaerji intercepts Johnson coming in once more, with Johnson leaving his hands low after throwing big. Johnson runs forward, hands by his side, and he jacks Mudaerji in the jaw with a vicious right hand. Mudaerji tries to escape, but Johnson is a dog with a bone chasing after him. Johnson backs Mudaerji to the fence and uppercuts him so hard, Mudaerji’s head snaps back like a Pez dispenser. Johnson lays into his opponent with a long barrage of punches, hurting Mudaerji badly and putting him down. Johnson tries to finish the job, swinging his way into the guard, where Mudaerji manages to survive and circle around to threaten with a triangle that transitions into an armbar. Johnson fights through it, gets put on his back, fights back up and somehow puts Mudaerji on the mat. Mudaerji sweeps him as soon as his seat hits the floor, and a mad exchange of grappling magic ensues until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Johnson

Round 3
The third round kicks off with Mudaerji tough as nails ready and willing to trade. Mudaerji sticks out two front kicks, spins with a wheel kick and smashes it on the side of Johnson’s dome. The forward pressure of Mudaerji allows him to trip Johnson up, and he slams the American to the mat. Johnson jumps back up and meanders forward, checking kicks but otherwise breathing hard and not striking. Mudaerji splits the guard with a left hand, potshotting Johnson coming forward while Johnson’s offense is practically nonexistent. Johnson grits his teeth after taking a few jabs to plow forward with telegraphed hooks, and the Chinese fighter sees them coming from a mile away. Johnson slings a right to open up a straight left, and the latter catches Mudaerji on the chin. Mudaerji chops his front leg back a few times, and he turns his hips into a body kick and then resets to land one more to the inner calf of “InnerG.” Johnson stalks Mudaerji down, walking through strikes but taking more than he is landing back. Johnson’s pressure results in a brief clinch, and Mudaerji fights his way out of it and just misses with a head kick. Mudaerji times a level change when Johnson wings a right hand, and Johnson reverses him with a throw to put “The Tibetan Eagle” on his back. Mudaerji scrambles wildly to get to his feet, and he breaks away from a clinch with an overhand right. Mudaerji puts three punches on the chin as Johnson shoots for a takedown, and he sets up a brabo choke to hurl Johnson to his knees. Johnson fights the hands to break up the submission, and he drops to one knee so he does not absorb a knee from the Chinese fighter. Johnson and Mudaerji swing it out right to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Su Mudaerji via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Angelo is very confident in Charles Johnson, citing his high output, technical striking, and ability to maintain pace for 15 minutes. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense is untested (only one takedown attempt in UFC) and that Johnson has survived tough moments before. He expects Johnson to pressure forward, be the cleaner striker, and take over as the fight goes on. He also mentions Johnson's activity and recent success.

"Charles is the pick I am very confident in that pick"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson by second-round submission. He highlights Sumudaerji's poor takedown defense and six submission losses. Johnson has good wrestling and submission attempts, though no UFC submission wins. He warns that if Johnson strikes, it's a different fight, but expects him to mix in takedowns and submit Sumudaerji.

second round submission

"I'm going to Charles Johnson give me Charles Johnson to win this fight by second round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson as a craftsman who should handle Sumudaerji's straightforward style. He notes that Sumudaerji lacks footwork to be a true sniper and that Johnson is durable and calculating. He expects Johnson to get on his front foot and take over in round two.

"I'd expect to see Johnson start to get on his front foot and really take over in round two"

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Both are strikers, but Johnson has a better gas tank, better discipline striking, and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from Sumudaerji's power. Johnson will chip away and win by decision or get a late finish.

"Johnson the better gas tank better discipline striking and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from the big Power of sumod darji allowing Johnson to chip away at sumod dargi either win this fight by decision or …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

The Guru picks Charles Johnson despite not liking him personally, citing Johnson's recent momentum and wins over Joshua Van and Jake Hadley. He criticizes Sumudaerji's lack of power and relevant wins, noting he was dominated by Tim Elliott and struggled against Matt Schnell. He believes Johnson can take the fight to the ground if needed and predicts a later-rounds finish.

later rounds finish

"I'm going to go with Charles Johnson getting this one done"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, expecting him to calculate and counter Sumudaerji's linear, lunging strikes. He notes that Sumudaerji is a one-track fighter who backs straight out after throwing, and Johnson's durability and craftiness should allow him to take over in round two. He acknowledges that Johnson might be lackadaisical against a less dangerous opponent.

Sumudaerji opened +176, now +187; Johnson opened -201, now -216; odds feel right

"I think Charles Johnson can find the counters to those strikes"

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Joshua Van

KO (punches) R3 0:20 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Charles Johnson	0	67 of 133	50%	72 of 140	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:15
Joshua Van	1	88 of 191	46%	90 of 195	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:34

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Charles Johnson	0	22 of 46	47%	27 of 53	1 of 1	100%	0:15
1	Joshua Van	0	44 of 80	55%	46 of 83	0 of 2	0%	0:32
2	Charles Johnson	0	44 of 83	53%	44 of 83	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Joshua Van	0	36 of 100	36%	36 of 101	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Charles Johnson	0	1 of 4	25%	1 of 4	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Joshua Van	1	8 of 11	72%	8 of 11	0 of 0	---	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Charles Johnson	67 of 133	50%	44 of 106	17 of 20	6 of 7	60 of 123	7 of 9	0 of 1
Joshua Van	88 of 191	46%	44 of 124	25 of 41	19 of 26	84 of 184	3 of 6	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Charles Johnson	22 of 46	47%	13 of 36	8 of 9	1 of 1	16 of 37	6 of 8	0 of 1
1	Joshua Van	44 of 80	55%	18 of 41	13 of 23	13 of 16	41 of 74	3 of 6	0 of 0
2	Charles Johnson	44 of 83	53%	30 of 66	9 of 11	5 of 6	43 of 82	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Joshua Van	36 of 100	36%	19 of 74	11 of 16	6 of 10	36 of 100	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Charles Johnson	1 of 4	25%	1 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Joshua Van	8 of 11	72%	7 of 9	1 of 2	0 of 0	7 of 10	0 of 0	1 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Charles Johnson vs. Joshua Van
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-205), Johnson (+170)

Round 1
Capping off the prelims is the flyweights, who will likely engage in a high-paced frenzy of feet and fists. Van (10-1, 3-0 UFC), training out of 4oz Fight Club in Texas, comes in on an eight-fight win streak with stoppages in six of those. While he has only won two in a row, Johnson (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is on the first winning stretch of his UFC career as he has already picked up two decisions this year. This speedy affair will be joined in the cage by referee Joe Coca, and it kicks off with an appropriately quick glove touch. Johnson leads off in a hurry with a leg kick, a jab to the body and a high kick. Van blocks a subsequent body kick, and he keeps his guard up to defend a jab. Johnson picks at him from distance, mixing his attack up to all targets. As Johnson crashes forward, he clips Van with a right hand, and Van takes it flush and does not bat an eye. Johnson stays active with several chopping low kicks, flicking out jabs and flustering Van. Van tries to close the distance with his own strikes, but Johnson is far more active than the self-described slow starter. Johnson peppers him with jabs and low kicks, pushing out a front kick to make Van back away. Van pushes in with a jab and an overhand right, and he uses it to tie Johnson up. “InnerG” turns him around and pounds Van in the thigh and breadbasket with knees, and Van tries to fight out of it to no avail. Johnson shoots in for a double, and Van stonewalls him and backs him away with his own jab. Van protects his ribs with a kick and sets his right hand on the chin. Johnson strings together three punches in response, and he brushes his face to say Van did not land. Van ignores this and touches him two more times with an overhand right, and Johnson stumbles and escapes when backed to the cage. Van brings up a knee that bounces into the cup, and Johnson tells Coca he is fine and that there is no stoppage necessary. Van walks Johnson down, fighting behind a jab and landing right hands to follow. Van knocks his man off his feet, and Johnson defends with an armbar off his back. Johnson jumps back to his feet when Van pulls out of the submission, and he shoots for a takedown that fails. Johnson prods out jabs, and Van busts him in the chops with a right and a left. Van makes Johnson shell up with a right hand and two body shots, and the power difference is fast. Van puts a lot more behind his strikes, and he gets the reactions he seeks when landing until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 2
Van comes out of his corner ready to pick up where he left off, marching “InnerG” down and landing a few strikes on the way in. Johnson is also similarly active, picking and poking with distance strikes. Van smashes him in the face with an uppercut, and Johnson does not like this and circles away. Van gives chase, chaining three punches together as Johnson escapes. The Terminator-like Van plods forward, aiming strikes to the body when not going up top. Johnson reaches out with a swiping left hook, and it does not make Van back up one inch. Van comes out throwing with two hooks, and Johnson barely gets out of the way. Johnson jabs twice and powers out a left hand, and Van no-sells him and gives him back a sharp jab that makes Johnson turn his head dismissively. Van pops him with a left and comes at him with a head kick, and Johnson bounces off the cage and lets loose with a right hand. Johnson whiffs on two hooks, and Van stays tightly compact and dings Johnson with a left hook on the nose. Van buckles the leg with a kick, ignoring Johnson’s jabs and straight punches. Johnson scores a left, and Van does too. Van jabs his way into a short combination, and Johnson punches back as he strafes to the side. Van nails him with a right hand, and Johnson shakes it off and throws back. Van loops a few right hands around the guard, and Johnson strikes back and gets in an elbow down the middle. Van keeps pursuing his foe, and the two flyweights are trading without fear. Johnson steps through with a knee, and Van responds with a right hand over the top and barely blocks a spinning back elbow in time. Van misses with a right as Johnson jumps forward, and his head kick is blocked. Two Johnson jabs end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
There is a brief glove touch to begin the last round, and Johnson lands the first strike with a right hand. As they both swing for the fences, Johnson nails his opponent with a right hand. Johnson blasts the body with a kick and ducks to avoid a screaming left hook, and he fakes a leg kick to spin with an elbow that bounces off Van’s forehead. Van tries to make him pay with an overhand right, but Johnson’s own fast right finds its mark and gets Van’s attention. Johnson jabs the body and comes up top with two punches, and his crisp right staggers “The Fearless.”
Johnson walks Van down and clobbers him with a thunderous uppercut, sending Van careening to the mat. As Johnson leaps down to smash Van with a big right hand, Coca dives between them, and Van’s head bounces off the mat to bring him back around.
While Van sits up to potentially protests the stoppage, he realizes he got his bell rung and that there is nothing more he can do. Johnson celebrates his wild comeback victory after a thrilling battle, and he sets the crowd up to drown out the arena with “USA” chants.

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Joshua Van R3 0:20 via KO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Angelo picks Charles Johnson as an underdog, citing his experience against higher-level competition and short-notice adaptability. He acknowledges Joshua Van's power and prospect status but believes Johnson's veteran savvy and awkward style could frustrate Van. Angelo has a small bet ($25, quarter unit) on Johnson at +170 and mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet as a safer alternative.

Has a $25 bet at +170; considering plus 3.5 round bet for Johnson.

"I am going to pick Charles Johnson here I am going to go the underdog here"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Joshua Van

Cody picks Van, citing his youth, volume, and cardio. He notes Van's slow starts but believes his pace will overwhelm Johnson, who tends to fade. He expects Van to win by decision or late finish.

"Joshua Vans a play for me."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to win a close decision. He notes that Johnson is a veteran who has been in tough battles and has prepared well for the altitude. He acknowledges Van's talent but thinks Van may face a roadblock. He likes the plus 180 underdog value and expects a split decision type fight.

"I'm g go with Charles Johnson with the veteran experience here uh via a very close type Split Decision type fight."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Joshua Van

Joshua Van's style is more reliable with consistent output. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, Van will crash the pocket and land body shots, setting up his striking game. The minus 200 line is a bit wide, but Van should win on the scorecards.

Van by decision; odds comment: line a bit wide

"the minus 200ish line on Van a little bit wide for my liking but I do think we see him come through and win this fight on the scorecards"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Joshua Van

Paul picks Van, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Johnson's tendency to lose rounds early and then fade, while Van gets stronger as the fight goes on. He expects Van to outwork Johnson and win a decision.

"I'm going to have to go with volume I'm going to go with Joshua van."

Bookie Beatdown

WIN vs Jake Hadley

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Charles Johnson	1	70 of 168	41%	88 of 188	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:19
Jake Hadley	0	48 of 128	37%	50 of 130	0 of 11	0%	0	0	2:12

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Charles Johnson	0	19 of 40	47%	22 of 44	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Jake Hadley	0	17 of 47	36%	17 of 47	0 of 3	0%	0:35
2	Charles Johnson	1	32 of 74	43%	37 of 80	0 of 0	---	0:19
2	Jake Hadley	0	20 of 38	52%	22 of 40	0 of 3	0%	0:27
3	Charles Johnson	0	19 of 54	35%	29 of 64	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Jake Hadley	0	11 of 43	25%	11 of 43	0 of 5	0%	1:10

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Charles Johnson	70 of 168	41%	36 of 125	12 of 18	22 of 25	66 of 159	0 of 2	4 of 7
Jake Hadley	48 of 128	37%	15 of 86	15 of 22	18 of 20	46 of 124	2 of 4	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Charles Johnson	19 of 40	47%	5 of 21	5 of 8	9 of 11	19 of 39	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Jake Hadley	17 of 47	36%	3 of 27	6 of 10	8 of 10	15 of 43	2 of 4	0 of 0
2	Charles Johnson	32 of 74	43%	19 of 58	4 of 7	9 of 9	28 of 67	0 of 0	4 of 7
2	Jake Hadley	20 of 38	52%	6 of 22	5 of 7	9 of 9	20 of 38	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Charles Johnson	19 of 54	35%	12 of 46	3 of 3	4 of 5	19 of 53	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Jake Hadley	11 of 43	25%	6 of 37	4 of 5	1 of 1	11 of 43	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Jake Hadley

Angelo leans towards Jake Hadley because he cannot trust Charles Johnson's one phenomenal showing over several mediocre ones. He notes Hadley has good takedowns and BJJ, though his takedown accuracy is low due to bailing on attempts. He acknowledges that if the version of Johnson that beat Azat Maksum shows up, he wins, but that version has only appeared once.

"I am going to lean Jake Hadley here because Jake Hadley has pretty good takedowns"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing the hometown advantage in St. Louis and the possibility that Johnson can do enough on the feet while mixing in takedowns. He notes that Johnson has been taken down in every UFC fight but that Hadley has zero takedowns in the UFC, so the fight likely stays standing. He is not confident because Johnson can be low volume and hesitant, but if the version that fought Maxim shows up, he can win. He expects a decision and thinks the hometown rub could help Johnson in a close fight.

PrizePicks play: Jake Hadley more than 45.5 significant strikes

"I'm thinking about maybe taking the the hometown guy because I think he can do enough to win on the feet maybe mixing some takedowns in his own right and then also if it's a close fight or even if …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Cody picks Johnson as a confident underdog. He argues that Hadley is overhyped, with poor cardio, weak striking, and a questionable chin. Johnson has excellent get-up game, having been taken down many times but always getting back up. He also has superior boxing and volume. Cody believes Johnson can stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and outwork Hadley on the feet. He notes that Hadley has looked bad against wrestlers and grapplers, and Johnson is a tough veteran.

"Charles Johnson dog money over Hadley all day sign me up"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson, noting that the fighters who beat Johnson are relentless wrestlers, which Hadley is not. He believes Johnson's cardio and volume will be key, and that Hadley's weight cut (walking around 160 lbs) will be a factor. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Johnson.

by unanimous decision

"I'm going to have to go with Charles Johnson via unanimous decision."

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Paul picks Johnson, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Johnson showed improved takedown defense in his last fight and has never been submitted. Hadley's cardio and striking are suspect, and Johnson's volume should win rounds. Paul thinks Johnson's get-up game and durability will be key. He is confident in the underdog.

"Charles Johnson plus 140 for me as well"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson as an underdog over Jake Hadley. He criticizes Hadley's performance against Cody Durden, particularly his inability to secure takedowns and his stationary style. He praises Johnson's elusiveness, outside movement, Olympic-level cardio, and world-class takedown defense. He believes Johnson's style will frustrate Hadley and that Hadley's best wins come against fighters who stand in front of him.

"I'm gonna go the underdog of Charles Johnson here over Jake Hadley."

THE MMA GURU

View all 15 fights

Expert Picks (4)

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody Durden

Cody picks Durden, having taken him at +170 earlier. He believes Durden's wrestling and pressure will be effective against Johnson, who gives up takedowns. He notes that Johnson's cardio may be compromised due to fighting frequently, and that Durden can grind out a win. He thinks the current +120 is fair but not great value.

"I took a little plus 170 on Sunday uh of Cody Durden"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Connor also leans Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and finish strong, as seen against Osborne. He notes that Durden's takedowns may not work against Johnson's excellent takedown defense, and without that threat, Durden's boxing is limited. Connor sees a pattern where Johnson loses round one but comes back to win rounds two and three.

"I can imagine it that it could absolutely it seems to be a pattern that charles johnson is probably going to experience several times... so i'm i'm gonna lean johnson with you"

MMA Vivisection

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Paul picks Johnson but is hesitant, acknowledging that Durden's wrestling could be a problem. He notes Johnson's superior striking and volume, and hopes judges favor damage over control time. However, he is concerned about Johnson's activity level and potential fatigue, and admits he might get burned.

"I'm gonna take Charles Johnson but you know buyer beware"

Bookie Beatdown

Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Charles Johnson

Zane leans Johnson because he believes Johnson can sustain a striking offense that wins over judges, especially if Durden's takedowns fail. He notes Johnson's takedown defense is excellent and that he made adjustments against Ode Osborne, coming back strong. However, Zane acknowledges Durden's wrestling and pace could be problematic, and the fight could hinge on the second round.

Odds comment: Johnson opened at -195, now -130; Durden opened at +173, now +120. Zane says odds should be tight.

"I lean johnson here because I think one thing you can count on is is that if somebody brings an insane pace to him... lately he seems to meet it"

MMA Vivisection

Cody Durden

Charles Johnson

Career Averages - Cody Durden

Career Averages - Charles Johnson

Cody Durden

Charles Johnson

Cody Durden - Fight History

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Expert Picks (4)