UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 40
Height 6' 1"
Reach 75"
Weight 253 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78"
Weight 260 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Marcos Rogério de Lima
3.7 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.9 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.4 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Waldo Cortes Acosta
5.54 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.38 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.44 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Marcos Rogério de Lima
Moneyline
FanDuel -174
KO/TKO
BetWay +200
Submission
BetRivers +575
Decision
FanDuel +380
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Moneyline
Caesars +150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +350
Submission
BetRivers +2000
Decision
BetRivers +475
Marcos Rogério de Lima - Fight History
WIN vs Junior Tafa
TKO (leg kick and punches) R2 1:14 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 33 of 46 71% 63 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:26
Junior Tafa 0 11 of 27 40% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 27 of 36 75% 55 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Junior Tafa 0 6 of 18 33% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 6 of 10 60% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Junior Tafa 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 33 of 46 71% 19 of 31 2 of 2 12 of 13 22 of 32 1 of 1 10 of 13
Junior Tafa 11 of 27 40% 9 of 24 1 of 2 1 of 1 10 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 27 of 36 75% 16 of 24 2 of 2 9 of 10 18 of 25 1 of 1 8 of 10
Junior Tafa 6 of 18 33% 5 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 6 of 10 60% 3 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 3
Junior Tafa 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Junior Tafa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: NA

Round 1
In something never before seen in the Octagon, brother will replace brother in a match. On weigh-in day, Justin Tafa was expected to be facing Rogerio de Lima (21-9-1, 10-7 UFC). Due to an unexpected injury and some speedy negotiations, the Brazilian will now collide with Junior Tafa (5-1, 1-1 UFC) instead. Life finds a way. Referee Frank Trigg is ready for this heavyweight slobberknocker to get underway, and Tafa stretches his arm out to get a glove touch before getting after it. Rogerio de Lima scores first with a low kick as he backs Tafa to the wall, and when Tafa reaches out with a jab, Rogerio de Lima connects with a second and then a third. Tafa switches stances and lands the single jab, and he hops away from a sweeping leg kick. The kicks are already having an effect on his opponent, and Rogerio de Lima recognizes that. Rogerio de Lima backs off, connects with a few punches and assaults the lead wheel with another kick, and Tafa’s leg nearly gives out beneath him. Tafa hops around, and instead of getting away, Rogerio de Lima pushes after him with a clinch. Tafa welcomes this so he can recover, and when they eventually break, Tafa plods forward to throw haymakers with anything he has left. Rogerio de Lima belts him with another pair of leg kicks, and Tafa backs up to the wall and waves him on. The Brazilian swarms him with punches and body shots, and he shoots in for a double that he completes with relative ease. Rogerio de Lima lands on top in half guard, maintaining heavy top pressure and bopping Tafa with his left hand when he finds an opening. Rogerio de Lima smothers his man until Tafa sits up. Rogerio de Lima considers a choke from an unusual position, and Tafa breaks out, relatively speaking, so he can swing a heavy hand at his opponent. Rogerio de Lima does not like this, so he lowers his chest down to squeeze on Tafa. The grind carries out until the horn bleats.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rogerio de Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rogerio de Lima
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rogerio de Lima

Round 2
Tafa struggles to get back to his feet at the end of the last round, but after a minute to recover, he appears fresh enough to continue. Tafa wades forward, and Rogerio de Lima intercepts him with a calf kick and pushes him down with his fists. Tafa switches to southpaw to protect his wrecked leg, and he lunges forward with an inaccurate punch that allows Rogerio de Lima the close proximity to grab him and shove him to the fencing. Tafa turns around and lands a body shot before pushing away, and he lets his hands go with a mighty right hand.
Rogerio de Lima delivers a harsh calf kick that collapses Tafa’s lead leg, and he looks to Trigg to wave the fight off. Trigg watches on without jumping in, so Rogerio de Lima decides to jump on top and pound away with hammerfists until Trigg calls it.
Tafa fought valiantly, but his replacement effort proved unsuccessful.

The Official Result
Marcos Rogerio de Lima def. Junior Tafa R2 1:14 via TKO (Leg Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Angelo picks Junior Tafa as an underdog, noting his power and durability. He thinks Marcos will struggle to take Tafa down due to Tafa's size and hips. He plans to bet Tafa inside the distance decision no action, as Tafa has finishing upside and Marcos is likely to win a decision if he avoids the knockout.

Junior Tafa wins inside distance (decision no action)
"I think Justin taffa is more than enough durable to not get finished here and all the finishing upside is on his side"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round submission. He notes de Lima has more ways to win with his BJJ black belt and wrestling, and expects him to get the fight to the mat where Tafa is untested. He acknowledges Tafa has power and could land a knockout, but leans de Lima due to his grappling advantage. He says he can't have much confidence in either fighter.

de Lima by submission, round 1
"give me to Lima first round sub I don't think this fight is going is going to last long one way or another but give me the guy that I think has more ways to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Cody picks Tafa as a dog, expressing strong dislike for de Lima. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to gas after one round, as seen in the Stefan Struve fight. He believes Tafa's power will eventually catch de Lima, especially if de Lima tires. He sees Tafa as a live underdog at plus money.

"I will take we got a under dog on McKenzie Daren was the first dog pick of the card I'm going to go follow it up with the second dog pick and take tofa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel Vreeland picks Junior Tafa, despite acknowledging de Lima's experience and grappling advantage. He is concerned about de Lima's recent knockout loss to Derrick Lewis, where he suffered severe dental damage, and questions his recovery. He believes Tafa's power gives him a chance, especially if de Lima is compromised. He notes Tafa's improvements and the fact that de Lima has been finished before.

"I'm actually going to go taffa here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Daniel picks Junior Tafa, calling him a 'bad man' who swangs and bangs. He likes Tafa's power and youth compared to de Lima. He hopes Tafa can keep the fight on the feet and thinks he is worth a dabble as a dog.

"dog time TAA is the pick he's a bad he's a bad man he swangs and bangs... hopefully tofa can keep this on the feet but I think tof is worth a dabble as a dog here."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

Jeff picks Junior Tafa as a dog. He is less worried about Tafa keeping the fight standing and more convinced that de Lima won't shoot takedowns quickly enough. He compares de Lima to fighters like Devin Clark who don't wrestle when they should. He warns that Tafa has one of the worst resumes of any UFC heavyweight, so he advises against betting heavily. He thinks Tafa's boxing will hold up.

"I think I'm gonna dabble with Justin tofa too uh I think I'm less worried about whether he can keep it on the feet and more kind of just convinced that Marcos Rogério de Lima won't shoot a takedown fast …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

De Lima has solid power, good leg kicks, and a grapple-heavy style to neutralize Tafa's punching power. He has matured enough to take the fight to the ground and keep Tafa from getting off. Expects a decision win.

"give me Delma and Delma by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Paul picks de Lima, citing his size and takedown ability. He notes that de Lima has a grappling advantage and can take Tafa down. He expects de Lima to use leg kicks and takedowns to win, though he admits he has no intention of betting this fight early.

"the pick for me right now will be Marcos rogerio Del Lima."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Junior Tafa

The MMA Guru leans toward Junior Tafa, citing his momentum and improvements, while noting Marcos Rogério de Lima is coming off a KO loss. He calls it a coin flip and admits he doesn't mind de Lima as an underdog. He mentions Tafa's KO power and de Lima's stagnation, but acknowledges Tafa's losses to Jared Vanderaa and Carlos Felipe.

"I'm going to lean towards Tafa... I'll take the momentum of Tafa, the improvements of him over the stagnation of Marcos Rodrigo Del Lima."
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R1 0:33 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 1 17 of 33 51% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 1 17 of 33 51% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 17 of 33 51% 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 32
Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 17 of 33 51% 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 32
Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rogerio de Lima (-215), Lewis (+185)

Round 1
One day ago, this heavyweight slobberknocker that will almost certainly end in either a violent knockout or some serious huffing and puffing – possibly both – is now sitting pretty as the “Featured Fight of the Night” due to the cancelation of the Stephen Thompson-Michel Pereira contest. Hunting for his first win since 2021, Lewis (26-11, 1 NC; 17-9 UFC) still holds the UFC’s all-time knockout record, although Matt Brown tied it with him. He draws fellow knockout artist Rogerio de Lima (21-8-1, 10-6 UFC), and the structural integrity of the cage will be tested when these big men get after it. They lumber towards one another, not offering a glove touch, and referee Dan Miragliotta is ready to step in at a moment’s notice. Lewis shockingly leaps in the air, blasting Rogerio de Lima in the chops with a flying knee. Rogerio de Lima collapses to the ground, and Lewis jumps on top and starts hammering him with vicious ground-and-pound. Rogerio de Lima considers hunting for leglock while trying to survive, but he is in a bad, bad way. Lewis continues slugging him on the face and side of the head, and Rogerio de Lima bails on any possible sub setup and just looks to keep it together. Rogerio de Lima turns to his knees, and the writing may be on the wall here. “The Black Beast” continues swarming Rogerio de Lima with everything he has, and Miragliotta has no choice but to call the fight. Lewis unmounts his defeated opponent, takes his shorts off and starts gleefully running around the cage. He proceeds, in just his underpants, to triumphantly motion the crotch chop several times. Lewis jumps on the cage, happy as can be, celebrating in vintage Derrick Lewis fashion. The UFC’s knockout record now singularly sits in the lap of Lewis, who tells commentator Joe Rogan that his contract is now up and that he hopes to be re-signed by the promotion. If not, as he says, “it is what it is.” The rest of the top-notch post-fight remarks cannot be done justice by a simple play-by-play writeup, and must be heard.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Marcos Rogerio de Lima R1 0:33 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Angelo is very confident in Marcos Rogério de Lima, stating he is better everywhere except power. He notes that Derrick Lewis is always dangerous with his knockout power, but believes Lima's wrestling, BJJ, and leg kicks will be too much. He placed a 1-unit bet at -129 and notes the line has already moved to -190.

1 unit at -129
"I'm very confident in Marcos to win I have a one unit bed on him at -129 he is already at minus 190."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round TKO via leg kicks. He argues de Lima has more paths to victory: knockout to the head, leg kick TKO, or submission. He questions Derrick Lewis's durability, cardio, and mentality, noting Lewis has been finished early in recent fights. He expects de Lima's leg kicks to shut down Lewis quickly.

first round TKO via leg kicks
"I'm going to take delima first round TKO via late kicks I think a couple of these leg kicks just shut down Derrick Lewis fights over shortly after"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Cody picks Lewis by KO, noting Lewis's power and ability to come from behind. He acknowledges Lewis's losing streak but points out the level of competition (Curtis Blaydes, Serghei Spivac, etc.) is much higher than de Lima's wins. He believes de Lima's cardio and chin are suspect, especially at altitude, and Lewis's heart and power will prevail. He took a small bet on Lewis by KO at +270.

Lewis by KO +270
"I took a small small shot on Derek Lewis by knockout at plus 270"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

James believes de Lima should be a sizable favorite, as Lewis is past his prime and has lost four of his last five. He notes de Lima's leg kicks are a key weapon and that Lewis has poor cardio and doesn't like leg kicks. He expects de Lima to land leg kicks early and possibly finish Lewis, though he acknowledges de Lima also gasses.

"I still think that he's gonna win the fight cleanly there are Lewis at this point in his career is done in my opinion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

De Lima is on a good run and has power and leg kicks to slow Lewis down. He can also take Lewis down and smash him from top position. Lewis is on a losing streak and seems to have slowed down at 38. De Lima should be aggressive early to avoid Lewis's late power. I'm leaning on de Lima under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna lean on to Lima in this matchup under two and a half probably my favorite spot but I think it's going to be delima who ends up getting his hand raised by knockout early"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Paul also picks Lewis, emphasizing the talent gap: de Lima's wins are over lower-tier heavyweights while Lewis has fought top contenders. He notes de Lima's history of quitting under adversity (e.g., tapping to a forearm choke against Romanov). He believes Lewis's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power will be decisive, especially at altitude where de Lima's cardio will falter.

"I'm also going to take Derek Lewis on this one"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 59 of 76 77% 76 of 95 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:01
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 82 of 150 54% 88 of 156 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 27 of 34 79% 33 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:35
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 20 of 39 51% 23 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 15 of 19 78% 26 of 32 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 19 of 37 51% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 17 of 23 73% 17 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 43 of 74 58% 43 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 59 of 76 77% 20 of 31 11 of 15 28 of 30 56 of 72 2 of 2 1 of 2
Waldo Cortes Acosta 82 of 150 54% 54 of 116 18 of 23 10 of 11 79 of 146 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 27 of 34 79% 7 of 11 5 of 7 15 of 16 26 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 2
Waldo Cortes Acosta 20 of 39 51% 7 of 24 10 of 11 3 of 4 17 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 15 of 19 78% 6 of 10 2 of 2 7 of 7 13 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 19 of 37 51% 13 of 30 4 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Marcos Rogério de Lima 17 of 23 73% 7 of 10 4 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 43 of 74 58% 34 of 62 4 of 7 5 of 5 43 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Lima (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+155)

Round 1
De Lima enters this heavyweight fight having won three of his last four UFC appearances. He’ll look to halt the momentum of Cortes-Acosta, whose undefeated record includes a pair of UFC triumphs. Herb Dean gets his first assignment of the card as the third man in the Octagon. De Lima stalks his foe and throws a front kick followed by a pair of calf kicks. A Cortes-Acosta body kick is countered by a de Lima right. A hard leg kick lands for de Lima and Acosta nods in acknowledgement. Another leg kick for de Lima and Acosta with a straight to the body. De Lima is heavily targeting the leg, and Acosta’s calf is swelling up early. De Lima punches his way into the clinch and he drags Acosta to the mat. Acosta gives up his back in an attempt to stand. Dean warns Acosta to keeps his fingers ot of de Lima’s glove. Acosta is able to stand and he throws a body kick. De LIma with another low kick and Acosta jabs the body. A solid right lands for Acosta, who shoots for a takedown. He doesn’t get it but he does shove de Lima into the fence. Acosta knees the thighs in close quarters. De Lima reverses position and the heavyweights separate. A counter left connects for de Lima, who then goes back to attacking the legs. Several more leg kicks land for de Lima, but Acosta answers with a spinning back kick. De Lima shoves Acosta into the fence, and they’ll end the round in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Lima

Round 2
Acosta opens with an inside leg kick and a jab. De Lima answers with a leg kick. Acosta is still moving well despite absorbing those leg kicks. De Lima makes Acosta stumble with a trio of leg kicks. Both heavyweights land body kicks. Acosta with a right hand, and Acosta answers with an uppercut. De Lima lands a right to the body. De Lima shoots for a takedown against the fence, lifts Acosta and plants him on his back. De Lima sets up hin his foe’s half guard. The Brazilian passes to mount and Acosta threatens with a kimura. Acosta gives up his back and scrambles to his feet. De Lima keeps his hands locked and then lands a few left hands before taking his man down near the fence. The Brazilian is back to working from half guard. Acosta gives up his back and scrambles to his feet. They swing heavy punches for a few moments. Acosta eats a leg kick and then makes de Lima stumble backward with a right hand. De Lima shoots for a takedown against the fence with about 30 seconds left. De Lima drops low, but Acosta defends and leans forward. They separate just before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 de Lima
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Lima

Round 3
Acosta lands a clubbing right hand. Acosta lands a jab and de Lima responds with a low kick. It’s a measured beginning to the final round for both men. Another jab for Acosta and another leg kick for de Lima. Acosta lands a spinning back kick to the midsection. Another nice jab lands for Acosta. De Lima steps in with a left hook, but Acosta answers with a combination. A hard low kick hurts Acosta. Acosta jabs the body, then the head. A right hand lands for Acosta, and de Lima is just standing in front of his foe and eating punches. Another jab lands for Acosta. A three-punch combination lands for Acosta, and de Lima fires off another low kick. More jabs for Acosta, as de Lima’s output has slowed significantly. De Lima’s face is wearing the damage from Acosta’s jab. De Lima shoots for a takedown against the fence. He locks his hands but Acosta nonetheless defends the attempt. Acosta frees himself and touches de Lima with straight punches. De Lima makes his foe buckle briefly with a low kick. but it’s Acosta landing in volume as the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 de Lima)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 de Lima)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 de Lima)

The Official Result
Marcos Rogerio de Lima def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, highlighting de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, volume, and a good gas tank, and can survive the initial onslaught to take over later. He suggests waiting for live betting to get an even better price on Acosta.

"the pre-flop pick is going to be the the underdog here but again I think you can get an even better price if you wait for that live market"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Connor is unimpressed with Cortes Acosta's limited game and showboating. He thinks de Lima's wrestling and better technique will be decisive. He notes de Lima's tendency to gas but believes Cortes Acosta lacks the technical game to capitalize. He sees de Lima as the clear favorite.

Odds mentioned: de Lima opened -107, currently -175. Cortes Acosta opened -103, currently +155.
"I'm picking de Lima."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Acosta, agreeing with Cody that de Lima is not a good fighter and has terrible cardio. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, head movement, and a good chin, and can outwork de Lima in later rounds. He also mentions that de Lima is a light heavyweight who moved up and has a history of gassing.

"I'm gonna pick Waldo Cortez Acosta but probably a fight I'm more interested from a betting perspective in the live markets"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Zane agrees, citing Cortes Acosta's lack of technical foundation and de Lima's superior wrestling and speed. He notes de Lima's history of losing to more technical fighters after gassing, but Cortes Acosta is not that type. He sees de Lima as the rightful favorite.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm picking de Lima."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:50 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 6 of 11 54% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 5 40% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrei Arlovski 1 6 of 11 54% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrei Arlovski 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out by power punchers and that de Lima has heavy hands, as seen in his knockout of Ben Rothwell. He mentions that Arlovski's recent wins have come against non-power punchers, and that de Lima's power and early finishing ability will be too much for the 43-year-old Arlovski.

de Lima wins by first-round knockout
"give me uh delima first round KO here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Andrei Arlovski as a dog, citing his four-fight winning streak and ability to win close decisions. He notes that Arlovski has been knocked out only by elite power punchers and that Marcos Rogério de Lima is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Cody expects Arlovski to survive the first round and take over in rounds two and three, winning a decision. He is betting Arlovski.

"I'm gonna be betting on Andre arlovsky this week Cody"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Connor agrees with Zane, picking de Lima based on his speed and power advantage. He notes that Arlovski has been beating low-technique, slow heavyweights, but de Lima is a significant step up in athleticism. Connor also points out that de Lima can wrestle if needed, and Arlovski's lack of finishing ability means he likely can't come back if he loses the first round.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm kind of with you. Yeah."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Daniel Levi picks de Lima, citing youth, power, and grappling advantage. He admits his poor track record picking Arlovski fights. He notes Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks de Lima's power and youth will be too much. He has no interest in laying -225.

"I'm gonna go with de Lima but you know minus 225 on a guy I can't trust I just don't really have much conviction or interest in laying that price."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Jacob picks de Lima but warns against betting heavyweight fights due to inconsistency. He notes Arlovski's recent win streak but says he was getting hit by Jake Collier, and de Lima has more power. He advises not to put money on either side.

do not bet this fight
"my official pick if I have to pick is delima"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Arlovski is on a 6-1 run over his last seven fights and has shown durability and veteran savvy. De Lima is first-round-or-bust and tends to fade in later rounds. Arlovski should survive the initial onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds, winning a decision. The plus 200 price is a no-brainer for an underdog bet.

Arlovski by decision +275
"plus 200 onlovsky is a completely no-brainer uh bet you know he likely he should be able to get uh off on better shots in the second and third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul also picks Arlovski, calling him dog number two on the card. He highlights Arlovski's six wins in his last seven fights and his ability to grind out decisions. Paul criticizes de Lima's poor cardio, submission losses, and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Arlovski's stick-and-move style will tire de Lima and lead to a decision win.

"I will as well I feel like I'm forcing an underdog play but again this is dog number two on the card that I'm zoning in on Andre Lassie these are the types of spots that he absolutely thrives in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

The MMA Guru picks Marcos Rogério de Lima over Andrei Arlovski, noting that Arlovski's recent fights have been close and he still gets caught on the chin. He highlights de Lima's hands, reach, and grappling threat, which Arlovski hasn't faced recently. He predicts de Lima will mix in takedowns, push Arlovski against the cage, and eventually clip him for a KO win.

"I'm going against the old man himself Andre arlovsky... I feel as though Marcos rodrio de Lima mixing a takedown early... get clipped by Marcos Rodrigo De Lima"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Zane picks de Lima confidently, citing his significant speed and power advantage over Arlovski's recent opponents. He notes that de Lima is a fast, powerful striker who can put Arlovski away early, similar to how Ben Rothwell or Tom Aspinall did. Zane also mentions de Lima's improved conditioning and potential wrestling as an out if needed, while Arlovski is slow and not a finisher anymore.

Surprised odds are getting that wide; de Lima opened -131 now -237, Arlovski +111 to +191. Zane says 'I don't hate it' and thinks the matchup works well for de Lima.
"I'm going to pick Dilema here. I think that the speed and the power is enough that he can just kind of... go out and Ben Rothwell Arlofsky."
LOSS vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Blagoy Ivanov 0 62 of 128 48% 75 of 142 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:52
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 68 of 133 51% 81 of 147 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Blagoy Ivanov 0 12 of 29 41% 15 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Blagoy Ivanov 0 30 of 54 55% 33 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:09
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 26 of 56 46% 35 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Blagoy Ivanov 0 20 of 45 44% 27 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 17 of 32 53% 21 of 37 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Blagoy Ivanov 62 of 128 48% 53 of 118 9 of 10 0 of 0 54 of 118 8 of 10 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 68 of 133 51% 46 of 107 18 of 20 4 of 6 58 of 115 10 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Blagoy Ivanov 12 of 29 41% 9 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 25 of 45 55% 10 of 27 12 of 13 3 of 5 23 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Blagoy Ivanov 30 of 54 55% 24 of 48 6 of 6 0 of 0 27 of 51 3 of 3 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 26 of 56 46% 22 of 51 3 of 4 1 of 1 19 of 44 7 of 12 0 of 0
3 Blagoy Ivanov 20 of 45 44% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 0
Marcos Rogério de Lima 17 of 32 53% 14 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 29 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov, citing his iron chin and combat sambo background. He believes Ivanov's chin will frustrate de Lima and that if Ivanov gets a takedown, he will have a clear advantage on top. He notes that six of de Lima's seven losses are by submission, providing a clear path.

"I do like ivanov or ivanov to get the win here i think his chin will frustrate de lima"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by second-round submission. He notes that de Lima is dangerous early with power and leg kicks, but he fades and has poor takedown defense (47%) and submission defense. Ivanov is extremely durable, having eaten shots from heavy hitters and survived a stabbing. Brady thinks de Lima will win the first round but Ivanov will take over in the second, taking de Lima down and submitting him. He compares it to the Struve fight where Struve submitted de Lima after nearly being finished.

second round submission
"I think ivanov takes down to lima de lima's takedown defense is not good it's sitting at like 50 it's actually sitting at 47 percent and then on top of that his gas tank's not good his submission defense is …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Cody picks Blagoy Ivanov, emphasizing his incredible durability (survived stabbing, fought Fedor, Derrick Lewis). He notes that de Lima has poor cardio, weak submission defense, and relies on early power. Cody believes Ivanov can take de Lima's best shots and then take over as de Lima fades. He sees Ivanov's takedown defense and chin as decisive factors.

"i completely agree i think blagoy ivanov uh he just the way he matches up against roger de lima can give him a whole lot of problems"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Daniel Levi picks Blagoy Ivanov by decision, citing his durability and never being finished. He notes de Lima is powerful early but fades and has low volume. He worries about Ivanov's own low output but thinks he can grind out a win. He does not bet the fight.

Daniel does not bet this fight. He mentions Ivanov by decision but no bet.
"The pick is for me is going to be Ivanov by decision but I don't have a bet on either fighter in this matchup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

The host picks Blagoy Ivanov, citing his durability and ability to survive de Lima's early power. He notes Ivanov's chin held up against heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis. He expects Ivanov to weather the first round, then wear on de Lima and finish him later. He likes the round 3 prop at +1000 and decision prop at +185. He plans to bet 1.4-1.5 units on Ivanov moneyline, acknowledging the layoff risk but believing Ivanov is rightly favored and could be even shorter.

Ivanov round 3 +1000; Ivanov by decision +185; de Lima round 1 KO +800 as hedge
"i'm gonna likely take a shot on it maybe a like a 1.4 or 1.5 unit play on blagoy even off"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Paul picks Blagoy Ivanov, surprised the line is so close. He notes that Ivanov is durable and has never been finished, while de Lima gasses and has poor takedown defense. Paul believes Ivanov's takedown defense and chin will be key, and that de Lima's only path is an early knockout. He expects Ivanov to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i feel like blagoy is the side here and it's not particularly close i'm surprised that the line is this close"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

The MMA Guru picks Blagoy Ivanov, trusting his granite chin and consistency against a higher level of competition. He notes Ivanov went five rounds with JDS and arguably beat Derrick Lewis. He criticizes de Lima's inconsistency and believes Ivanov will grind out a close 29-28 decision by pressuring and winning stand-up exchanges. He dismisses the height difference as not significant.

"i'm going to trust him blagojev enough getting this one done um they say there's a massive height difference i don't think there's going to be too much of a height difference"
WIN vs Ben Rothwell
TKO (punches) R1 0:32 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ben Rothwell 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 14 of 24 58% 11 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 3 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ben Rothwell 14 of 24 58% 11 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 3 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Angelo leans toward Ben Rothwell, reasoning that he only needs one takedown to finish, while de Lima needs 15 minutes of a clean game plan. He acknowledges de Lima's path to victory through stick-and-move but thinks Rothwell's size and durability are key.

"i'm ever so slightly razor thin ever so slightly leaning with big ben he only needs one single takedown to get this fight done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Big Brady is confident in Ben Rothwell, citing de Lima's atrocious cardio and tendency to fade after one round. He notes Rothwell has a legendary chin (not knocked out since 2009) and superior takedown defense. Brady expects Rothwell to take over as the fight progresses and predicts a second-round submission, as de Lima has been submitted five times.

Rothwell by submission in round 2
"give me ben roethlit a win and give me ben rothwell to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Cody emphasizes Rothwell's durability (not finished since 2009) and de Lima's tendency to fade. He points out de Lima's poor takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He expects Rothwell to pressure, take de Lima down, and eventually submit him. He also notes Rothwell's 70% takedown defense and that de Lima gasses quickly.

Ben Rothwell wins by submission
"ben rothwell also he shows a 70 takedown rate or something uh he's given up one takedown since 2013"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Daniel Levi picks Ben Rothwell by submission, predicting that de Lima will be faster and more athletic early but will eventually make a mistake and tap to a choke. He references Rothwell's history of opportunistic finishes, including the comeback against Brandon Vera and the gogoplata against Josh Barnett. Levi notes de Lima's tendency to quit when put in a choke, making Rothwell's submission threat a key factor.

submission, third round gogoplata
"it's gonna be big ben via third round go go choke"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Jacob picks Ben Rothwell, believing he will plod forward, make it dirty, and grind out a win. He notes that Rothwell has a granite chin and hasn't been TKO'd since 2009. Jacob thinks de Lima has no way to win except maybe a weird decision.

"i think ben just wins one of those fights that he wins he just plots for it boom boom boom boom a little bit of volume makes it dirty against the cage"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ben Rothwell

Paul notes that de Lima is a quitter when things go south and has a pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rothwell is durable, has better submission skills, and will wear de Lima down. He predicts Rothwell wins by submission in round 2, and mentions a prop at 13-1.

Ben Rothwell wins by submission (round 2) at +1300
"ben rothwell's the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Ben Rothwell

The Guru picks Ben Rothwell by unanimous decision (29-28). He expects a close first round with de Lima landing big shots, but Rothwell's pressure and physicality will take over in later rounds. Rothwell will break de Lima down with clinch work and strikes, winning the last two rounds clearly.

unanimous decision 29-28
"i'm going to go with ben rothwell via unanimous decision"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 5 of 8 62% 60 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 0 14 of 26 53% 166 of 228 3 of 4 75% 0 0 14:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 4 of 5 80% 23 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 0 6 of 13 46% 58 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:29
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 0 of 1 0% 16 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 0 8 of 13 61% 45 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:50
3 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 1 of 2 50% 21 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurice Greene 0 0 of 0 --- 63 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcos Rogério de Lima 5 of 8 62% 3 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurice Greene 14 of 26 53% 11 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 10 1 of 1 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcos Rogério de Lima 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurice Greene 6 of 13 46% 3 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2
2 Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurice Greene 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 13
3 Marcos Rogério de Lima 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurice Greene 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Big Brady likes de Lima's power and leg kicks, and thinks Greene's poor striking defense (45%) and chin issues will be exploited. He notes Greene has zero takedowns in the UFC, so he won't exploit de Lima's weak takedown defense. Brady predicts de Lima will win by first-round knockout, as de Lima is dangerous early but fades after the first round. He says the under and de Lima in round 1 are good looks, but he wouldn't lay -190 on the moneyline.

De Lima by first round knockout; under 1.5 rounds
"I'm gonna take delima to win by first round knockout i think the under could be a very good look."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

Daniel Levi picks Maurice Greene as a dog, citing de Lima's tendency to get submitted or panic on the ground. He notes Greene's length, volume, and opportunistic submission ability. He acknowledges de Lima's power and early-round threat but thinks Greene can survive and find a finish, possibly via submission. He calls de Lima a 'stunt machine' and expects a volatile fight.

"i'm gonna go with uh maurice green here to submit uh marcos"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

The host picks de Lima to win by TKO, expecting his power to be too much for Greene. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and jiu-jitsu but believes his power will get the job done early. He suggests live betting Greene if he survives the first round.

de Lima by TKO +120, fight won't start round 2 -150
"i think i would go with de lima by tko plus 120."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Maurice Greene

The MMA Guru picks Maurice Greene over Marcos Rogério de Lima, expressing surprise that Greene is a nearly 2-to-1 underdog. He believes Greene's range management with oblique kicks and jabs will neutralize de Lima's counter-punching style. He predicts a unanimous decision win, possibly 30-27, and notes de Lima's only chance is a KO, which he doesn't see happening.

unanimous decision, 30-27
"i am 100 picking maurice green here ... i think people are really underrating him because he lost to greg hardy but greg hardy is not a bad heavyweight"
Technical Submission (forearm choke) R1 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Teixeira · Nov 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 6 of 7 85% 10 of 12 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:51
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 18 of 29 62% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 6 of 7 85% 10 of 12 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:51
Marcos Rogério de Lima 0 18 of 29 62% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 6 of 7 85% 3 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 3
Marcos Rogério de Lima 18 of 29 62% 7 of 17 5 of 5 6 of 7 12 of 22 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 6 of 7 85% 3 of 3 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4 3 of 3
Marcos Rogério de Lima 18 of 29 62% 7 of 17 5 of 5 6 of 7 12 of 22 5 of 6 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Nov 3, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Romanov's undefeated record, his ability to slam opponents, and de Lima's poor takedown defense (36%). He predicts a first-round submission, noting Romanov has finished 67% of his wins by submission.

first round submission, fight doesn't go to decision (-500)
"probably my most confident pick on the card outside of like a minus five hundred chica chicatsu so give me rowan off here to get it done first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win via first-round submission. He notes Romanov's 100% takedown rate in his UFC debut and his ability to hold top control and attack with submissions. He believes Romanov will take de Lima down, apply a schoolyard headlock, and finish the fight, as de Lima has been submitted four times in the UFC and tends to quit when pressured.

first round submission
"i'm going with alexander romano via first round submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Nov 2, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host is extremely confident in Romanov, calling him as close to a lock as possible. He expects a first-round finish via ground and pound or submission, noting Romanov's relentless pressure, takedowns, and finishing ability. He believes de Lima is completely outmatched and that the line should be -500. He plans to wait for the inside the distance prop.

He is waiting for the inside the distance line, expecting it to be around -150 to -200, and plans to hammer it. He also mentions Romanov as a potential lock of the night play.
"He's as close to a lock of the night as you're gonna get in my opinion... i'm really looking for especially him inside the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via arm triangle choke. He believes Romanov is too fast and powerful for Marcos Rogério de Lima, and will soften him up with kicks before taking him down and securing the choke. He notes de Lima's history of being submitted.

first round submission, arm triangle choke
"romanov gets it done by first round submission"
Waldo Cortes Acosta - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 88 of 143 61% 88 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 54 of 130 41% 54 of 130 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 33 of 44 75% 33 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Volkov 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Volkov 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 17 of 50 34% 17 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 88 of 143 61% 22 of 70 23 of 29 43 of 44 88 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 54 of 130 41% 30 of 91 6 of 13 18 of 26 53 of 129 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 33 of 44 75% 4 of 14 8 of 8 21 of 22 33 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 15 of 33 45% 7 of 21 2 of 4 6 of 8 15 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 34 of 56 60% 13 of 31 7 of 11 14 of 14 34 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 22 of 47 46% 8 of 29 3 of 6 11 of 12 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Volkov 21 of 43 48% 5 of 25 8 of 10 8 of 8 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 17 of 50 34% 15 of 41 1 of 3 1 of 6 16 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+150)

Round 1
Although the UFC’s heavyweight title picture is in flux with Tom Aspinall still recovering, Jon Jones suggesting that Elvis has left the building and Ciryl Gane battling Alex Pereira for the interim strap, this next one might end up serving as a de facto eliminator match. Volkov (39-11, 13-5 UFC) may have questionably come up on the wrong end of the scorecards in his rematch with Gane, and a win could propel him back to gold. Standing in his way will be surging former pitcher Cortes-Acosta (17-2, 10-2 UFC), who has won three straight. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the big men, standing back as they lumber towards one another without a glove touch in sight.
Volkov starts off with kicks to the lead leg and body. He alternates them while Cortes-Acosta tries to get a read on his way in. Volkov keeps pecking away with these distance-keeping kicks, and he takes a flush jab on the nose. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a right hand follow-up, but his low kick scores with an audible thud. Cortes-Acosta chases after the Russian, coiling back his right hand to attack. Volkov keeps to his preferred range, bringing up a foot just short of the face and going right back to the front leg. Volkov lands a low kick, and Cortes-Acosta charges him behind four punches that largely careen off the raised guard. Cortes-Acosta again tries to swarm, but Volkov slips and clips him with a left hook while escaping.
Volkov peppers the midsection with his foot as fans chant his name, and he is in range for just one punch before strafing to the side. Volkov beats on the lead leg a few more times, doing so until Cortes-Acosta leans down to try to catch it. Cortes-Acosta does not get the leg, so he wings power punches that miss the mark. Volkov slams his shin in the body, and he is met with a jab and sees the overhand coming at him. Volkov pushes off the belly and spins away before absorbing anything of merit. Cortes-Acosta blitzes him and lands a left hand flush, and Volkov splits off and continues his decimation of the front leg. Volkov’s one-two misses, and Cortes-Acosta rallies with his own jab. Cortes-Acosta digs a left hand to the side, and his overhand right misses while Volkov is resetting. Volkov lands a few more kicks as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The heavyweights do not break their gaze when leaving their corners, and Volkov picks up where he left off with a slapping body kick. Cortes-Acosta smacks his side to draw more on, and he wings a right hand that buzzes the tower. Volkov ducks a monster punch to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta lashes out with an elbow that is an inch away from doing damage. Volkov works the inside of the front leg, and he stays planted too long and is clubbed with a right hand. Volkov circles off and plants a front kick on the stomach and another to the front leg. Volkov offers a high kick up and dances away from the counters he knows are coming, and he does not slow on working the front leg with his kicks. Cortes-Acosta kicks him back a few times, but the impact of the swings differs significantly. Volkov lances Cortes-Acosta with a one-two, moving to the side as he is more intent on breaking his foe down than outright knocking him flat.
The low kicks are starting to have an impact, with Cortes-Acosta tripping up on his way in. Cortes-Acosta lobs a bomb of a right hand, and Volkov shifts to the side. Cortes-Acosta points to the ground to try to initiate a brawl, angrily shouting at his opponent. Volkov welcomes this by blasting Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand that staggers him. Cortes-Acosta backs off and tries to lure his foe in, but Volkov is smart and just tags him on the outside. Volkov’s body kick gets through, and he leans away as Cortes-Acosta telegraphs his swings. He scores a low kick, and a frustrated Cortes-Acosta turns his hips into one coming back at him. Volkov flicks out a body kick and brushes Cortes-Acosta’s hair with his shin, catching a leaning Cortes-Acosta with a long right hand. A think trickle of blood leaks from the top of Volkov’s cheek, and he does not change his game plan one iota as he rips the body. Cortes-Acosta crashes at him with heavy punches, only to be jabbed back by the Russian. Volkov’s final inside low kick of the round draws a noteworthy reaction out of his opponent, with Cortes-Acosta limping back to lean on his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta is the aggressor to start the final frame, whether he is tied on the scorecards or down on them, it does not matter. He flicks a low kick at the Russian, slowly working his way to crowd forward. Volkov chambers and looses a kick to the ribs, and he goes upstairs and then to the sternum in rapid succession. Cortes-Acosta’s own counter kick does not land, and he gets his leg kicked out from beneath him when rushing forward. Cortes-Acosta lunges with his fingers outstretched and jams one in Volkov’s eye, and Beltran is about to have them play through it but calls time instead to let Volkov recover. When they resume, Cortes-Acosta is angry. The Dominican starts hurling bombs, and Volkov suddenly freezes him with a jab directly into the eye socket. Volkov’s nose is pouring blood out after absorbing a bomb or two, but Cortes-Acosta is the one who appears to be struggling more as Volkov pecks away at him. Volkov digs a kick to the body and leans as a right hand upstairs brushes past his hair. Cortes-Acosta loads up on big firepower, further bloodying up the Russian’s nose as he headhunts. Volkov stands in the pocket too long to absorb a flush uppercut, but his position allows him to jab out with a front kick that sucks some of the air out of Cortes-Acosta’s lungs.
Cortes-Acosta rushes forward for a takedown, and Volkov stonewalls him and shoves him to the fence. Cortes-Acosta breaks off with a knee to the body. Volkov backs off, breathing hard as he struggles to get any air through his bloodied nostrils, and he offers up a body kick. Volkov hammers the front leg with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta has his right hand coiled and ready to launch. Cortes-Acosta uses power jabs, targeting the beacon that is Volkov’s red and shiny nose. Volkov jabs him back, and he dodges a missile of a right hand by a whisker. Volkov pins a one-two on the nose and lands two low kicks, the second of which staggering Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta still goes out swinging furiously, and he tries to get one last brawl with seconds left. Volkov gets on his bike after jabbing and chopping at the front leg, and he stays out of range as time runs out.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, betting on him at +160. He cites Waldo's athleticism, youth, and power, and notes that Volkov doesn't hit very hard. He thinks Waldo's footwork and takedown threat will be key, and that Volkov's only path is to wrestle, which Waldo can defend.

bet on Waldo at plus 160
"I'm picking Waldo here. I even bet on Waldo at plus 160."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes Volkov has no takedown defense and Waldo can close distance without fear of Volkov's power. He mentions Waldo's win over Derrick Lewis and his ability to out-strike and out-grapple. He is concerned about Volkov's offensive wrestling but still picks Waldo. He likes the dog odds.

Angelo mentions Waldo is a dog and he likes a good amount of dogs on this card.
"I'm still picking him. He's a dog. I'm going to run with that. I think the athleticism is really going to be the difference here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Big Brady leans Alexander Volkov, noting his better volume and tools on the feet. He questions Waldo's performances in decisions and thinks Volkov's chin is solid. Brady expects Volkov to win by decision, as Waldo is tough and can eat shots, but Volkov should outpoint him.

"I'm leaning Volkov here. I'm going to take Volkov to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, citing his speed, boxing, and youth advantage over the older Volkov. He notes Volkov's inconsistency and questionable durability, and believes Acosta can win on the feet. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money value.

"I only got a handful of underdogs that I'm going to back on this card. And sadly, Waldo is one of them."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Volkov's improved confidence and mean streak in his third act, and notes Acosta's lack of adjustments. Connor believes Volkov's jab and reach will be too much, and Acosta has no way out when stuck in a bad style matchup.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Connor says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel picks Acosta despite acknowledging Volkov's veteran skills and potential for a clinic. He notes Acosta's athleticism, confidence, and recent wins, and admits he has been wrong about Acosta before. Daniel feels he must pick Acosta now, even though he fears Volkov will win as a result.

"I just feel bad that I've counted this guy out so many times. He keeps proving me wrong. I feel like I got to pick him here. And now obviously Volkov's going to win as a result, but I'm gonna …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host does not bet this fight. He sees it as competitive on the feet, with Volkov having a grappling edge if he chooses to use it. He notes both have bad takedown defense and ground games, but Volkov's top game is heavy. He passes because if it stays standing, it's razor close, and if Volkov grapples, he could dominate. He also mentions the over/under but does not bet.

No bet. Mentions over 1.5 rounds at 3.50 as tempting but passes.
"I'm not going to touch this one from a betting point of view because I think if it does stay standing... this one will be razor close."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Lean picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Alexander Volkov

Predicted method: Decision. Volkov's significant height and reach advantage (6'7", 80" reach) allows him to control distance with his jab and long strikes against the shorter Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta has power (recent KOs over Derrick Lewis and Shamil Gaziev) but tends to be hittable (3.38 SApM) and may struggle against Volkov's technical striking. Volkov's takedown defense (68%) is adequate, and he has shown improved grappling. However, Cortes Acosta's momentum and KO power make this a dangerous fight. Volkov should win by decision if he keeps it standing.

Volkov by decision +155
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Jacob picks Volkov, noting that Volkov rarely loses striking matches and is excellent at keeping range. He thinks the fight will look like the Pavlovich fight where Waldo backs up and can't land enough. He believes the odds should be closer to 50/50 and that Volkov is the better striker.

"Volkov, I don't know if you heard me when he walked away, but he really lose striking matches. So, I got to go Volkov."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James leans towards Alexander Volkov because he believes Volkov's kickboxing and experience will outpoint Cortes-Acosta over three rounds. He notes that Cortes-Acosta has struggled in longer kickboxing fights against Sergey Spivac and Sergey Pavlovich, and that Volkov is a true kickboxer. He also mentions Cortes-Acosta's recent hamstring injury as a concern. He predicts Volkov by decision.

"I lean to the Alexander Volkov side in this fight. ... I got Vulov winning via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The host picks Volkov but is hesitant due to Cortes Acosta's speed advantage. He believes Volkov has advantages in striking, grappling, and experience, and should outwork Cortes Acosta. He expects a decision win, but notes the speed difference gives him pause. He may wait for a better line.

"I'll go Volkov and Volkov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov, citing his size, reach, and wrestling ability. He thinks Volkov can take Acosta down and control him, as Acosta has not faced elite wrestlers. Paul also mentions a small bet on Volkov by submission at plus 2000, noting Volkov's submission skills.

Volkov by submission (plus 2000)
"I still like Volkov here. There's been some money coming in on Waldo. I understand Waldo's pretty fast on the feet."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his underrated resume and recent performances. He notes Volkov's wins over Pavlovich and close fight with Gane. He believes Volkov's low kicks, clinch work, and body attacks will be key against Cortes Acosta, who he sees as a 'blob'. He predicts Volkov will pick him apart, possibly with a body kick KO.

"I am going to go with Alexander Vulov, but I love this matchup."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Zane picks Volkov, citing his resurgence and stylistic advantage. He notes Volkov's jab and reach will trouble Acosta, who is an artless slugger with few ideas. Zane points out that Acosta has no wrestling threat, which is Volkov's historical weakness. He expects Volkov to control the fight with his jab and counters, though it's heavyweight so anything can happen.

Odds: Volkov opened -185, now -160; Acosta opened +160, now +140. Zane says it should be wider.
"It's gotta be a Volkov one."
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
KO R2 3:14 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 44 of 62 70% 46 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Derrick Lewis 0 8 of 43 18% 8 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 12 of 16 75% 14 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Derrick Lewis 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 32 of 46 69% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Derrick Lewis 0 4 of 21 19% 4 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 44 of 62 70% 35 of 53 5 of 5 4 of 4 27 of 45 1 of 1 16 of 16
Derrick Lewis 8 of 43 18% 6 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 1 8 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 12 of 16 75% 7 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
Derrick Lewis 4 of 22 18% 3 of 17 1 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 32 of 46 69% 28 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 16 of 30 1 of 1 15 of 15
Derrick Lewis 4 of 21 19% 3 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-355), Lewis (+280)

Round 1
Faces are about to get punched by fists the size of lunchboxes. Heavyweights ready and willing to inflict some serious damage will trade bungalows, and only one man expects to be standing when it is all said and done. Cortes-Acosta (16-2, 9-2 UFC) has momentum behind him as well as a six-year age advantage, but he has to throw down with Lewis (29-12, 1 NC; 20-10 UFC). Whether Lewis will suffer another defeat against a tough talent or spring yet another brutal upset knockout, we will know in the next 15 minutes or fewer. Referee Jason Herzog has donned his proverbial hard hat ahead of the mighty swings about to come. There is no plan for a glove touch.
Lewis says hello with a jumping front kick, and Cortes-Acosta easily swats it out of the air. Lewis then kicks low, and the Dominican ignores it and slowly walks down his opponent before kicking him back. Cortes-Acosta jabs with the ball of his foot to the stomach, and he aims a jab to the same spot before leaning back to dodge a left hook. Lewis pitches a jumping head kick that bangs into the guard, and Cortes-Acosta looks surprised that the relative elder statesman and 264-pounder can get his leg up there repeatedly. Cortes-Acosta does not stick his face in the hornet’s nest, instead peeking out behind his jab occasionally. The lack of activity has made fans immediately restless, so Lewis calms them briefly with a failed head kick while touching Cortes-Acosta at the end of a reaching right hand.
There is a lull in the action as no one wants to commit, with Lewis always threatening that he is going to unleash something but pulling back more often than not. When Lewis does lunge forward, Cortes-Acosta bats him back with a counter as he stays in his preferred range chopping away at the front wheel. Cortes-Acosta fires off a one-two that grazes the side of the dome, and Lewis’ counter goes wide. Lewis lets rip a body kick, and Cortes-Acosta catches it and hangs onto it until Lewis flops to his back. Cortes-Acosta lords over him kicking the legs, and he hangs onto an ankle to punch the body a few times. Herzog tells him to choose whether he wants to let Lewis up, and he does. Lewis gingerly gets back to his feet, and walks right into a jab. Lewis lets fly a kick, and Cortes-Acosta slips when dodging it to bounce off the cage. Lewis lashes out with looping punches, and the younger man dodges and weaves away from every one. Cortes-Acosta’s jab ends the tepid round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The heavyweights pick up where they left off, with Cortes-Acosta probing with jabs while Lewis tries high-amplitude, generally inaccurate offense. Lewis scores a body kick in the midst of a surge, but Cortes-Acosta is no worse for wear and keeps the jab right in Lewis’ face. Lewis walks face-first into a clean right hand that surprises him, and he lumbers forward to grab hold of his foe who is out of the way. Cortes-Acosta lets him bounce off the fencing so he can keep pecking at him, and he jams the front leg with a kick. Lewis wades forward with his hands down, taking the jab on the forehead so he can close in. He lobs a big left and a bigger right, but Cortes-Acosta is already two steps ahead of him. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with his jab, and he follows one with a right hand down the pipe. “Salsa Boy” keeps probing with his flustering jab, disrupting what Lewis has to offer before it gets thrown.
Cortes-Acosta walks Lewis down fearlessly, and he rolls with a looping left hook and puts his hand in the air to signal that he dodged it. Cortes-Acosta jabs the head and body, and he leans back to take the sting out of a Lewis overhand right.
When absorbing a jab, Lewis slips and feebly falls to his back. The frustrated Lewis turns to his knees under fire, seemingly out of the fight. Lewis turtles up as the Dominican pelts him with right hands, and Herzog urges Lewis to fight on but Lewis will not.
Punches continue to mount until Herzog waves the fight off, and the building does not respond positively to the stoppage or the victor.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Derrick Lewis R2 3:14 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism, speed, and technical striking. He acknowledges Derrick Lewis's knockout power but believes Waldo's chin and volume will carry him. He notes Waldo was rocked in his last fight but trusts his durability. He says the odds are probably accurate but warns it's a Derrick Lewis fight where anything can happen.

"Waldo's going to be the pick. He's going to have to be careful here. And I'm medium level confidence. ... minus 330. Honestly, probably accurate, but it's a Derrick Lewis fight and anything could happen."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady highlights Waldo's durability, noting he ate bombs from Pavlovich and smiled. He thinks Lewis is knockout-or-bust and Waldo is a much better minute-winner. He expects Waldo to cruise to a decision win, as Lewis likely can't knock him out.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"I think Waldo is extremely durable. I think between the two, Waldo's a million times more durable than Lewis."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant due to the price tag. He notes Waldo's jab and footwork could give Lewis problems, but worries about Waldo's tendency to be hesitant against power punchers. Cody sees Waldo winning more often than not but prefers not to lay the heavy price.

"I kind of went the other way. But uh you know how we make picks on every single fight, but the bottom line is some of those you can pass on."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Connor picks Derrick Lewis, relying on his proven ability to change a fight with one punch or a wild technique (e.g., flying knee). He argues that Waldo Cortes Acosta is not a consistent fighter and can be drawn into brawls, as seen against Ryan Spann. Connor also notes that Lewis has a history of winning fights he's losing (e.g., Volkov, Hunt) and that his dynamism is a constant threat. However, he admits Lewis's calm has eroded in recent years.

Waldo opened at -205, now -330; Lewis opened at +175, now +270. Connor says the odds are a little wide given Lewis's danger.
"I gotta have the heavyweight dynamic finisher."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel Vreeland picks Waldo Cortes-Acosta but is hesitant. He notes that he has been wrong about Cortes-Acosta before, picking against him in his last two fights. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power and get-up game, but believes Cortes-Acosta has momentum and is coming into his own. Vreeland warns that Lewis is always dangerous and that this is a tough fight to call.

"I'm going to go Waldo Cortez Aosta. He's got the momentum on his side. Seems like he's coming into his own."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

James picks Cortes-Acosta via decision, citing his superior boxing and durability. He notes Lewis is on a downtrend, often quitting when tired, and that Cortes-Acosta is smart enough to avoid Lewis's power bursts. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I'm pretty [ __ ] confident on Waldo Cortez A Costa here. I think he's the better striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host expects Cortes Acosta to use his pesky jab and body work to slow down Derrick Lewis, eventually leading to a TKO finish. He notes Cortes Acosta's improved chin and durability, believing he can eat Lewis's best shots. However, he hesitates to play the -350 line, suggesting the method of victory might be a better bet. He predicts the fight won't go to the scorecards.

Cortes Acosta by TKO, fight doesn't go to decision
"I feel like he can eat the best shot from Derrick Lewis. Still come forward, still land his pesky jab, really just stay on uh Lewis and I think that eventually leads to a TKO finish for Waldo Cortez Acasta."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Paul picks Derrick Lewis by KO, viewing it as a system play. He acknowledges Waldo is more likely to win but believes Lewis's power is a game-changer. Paul notes Lewis's age and cardio issues but says power is the last to go, and he likes the plus money on Lewis by KO.

Derrick Lewis by KO
"Lewis by KO. I it's just it's just more of a system play at this point in his career. He's 41. Yes. He's you know I think he's given up certain skills and abilities, but he's got the one thing …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his talented hands and recent activity. He believes Derrick Lewis's one-dimensional striking will be countered, and that Lewis will quit after getting cracked. He predicts a first-round TKO.

first round TKO
"I think this is going to be a Waldo Cortez Aosta first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jan 22, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Zane leans toward Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his youth (34) and calm, consistent approach. He notes that Derrick Lewis has lost his composure in recent fights and tends to brawl recklessly, which plays into Waldo's patient counter-striking. However, Zane acknowledges that Lewis has dynamic fight-changing power and could land a lucky shot. He also mentions that Waldo is not a consistent finisher and could be outpointed if Lewis fights smart.

Waldo opened at -205, now -330; Lewis opened at +175, now +270. Zane says the odds are a little wide given Lewis's danger.
"I'm leaning towards Waldo here, but just because he's a young man and he's 34."
WIN vs Shamil Gaziev
KO R1 1:22 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 2 10 of 21 47% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Shamil Gaziev 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 2 10 of 21 47% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Shamil Gaziev 0 6 of 15 40% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 10 of 21 47% 8 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 0 of 1 1 of 2
Shamil Gaziev 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 10 of 21 47% 8 of 19 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 0 of 1 1 of 2
Shamil Gaziev 6 of 15 40% 4 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Shamil Gaziev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-160); Gaziev (+130)

Round 1
It’s time for the big boys again. Let us hope it is nothing like the travesty of the curtain jerker today, and that there is no eye poke silliness to speak of. Looking to become the heavyweight version of Donald Cerrone, Cortes-Acosta (15-2, 8-2 UFC) steps in on short notice to replace Serghei Spivac. In an amusing twist of fate, “Salsa Boy” previously replaced Gaziev (14-1, 3-1 UFC) against Spivac earlier this year. While Cortes-Acosta wants to fight six times this year—meaning, he wants to serve as a replacement fighter for one of the next two final UFC cards in 2026 providing he gets out of this unscathed—he will have to handle the Bahraini first. Referee Lukasz Bosacki has his hands full as these big lugs tipped the scales at a combined 527 pounds on Friday, but he takes a breath of relief as they touch gloves and do not appear to hold any ill will towards one another.
Gaziev fearlessly marches forward to start the fight, putting Cortes-Acosta’s back to the fence and aiming straight punches at him. Cortes-Acosta flicks a few jabs back at him, and Gaziev smiles at him and sways from most. Gaziev clubs Cortes-Acosta with a left hand, and Cortes-Acosta snaps into action and counters Gaziev with a balance-destroying right. Cortes-Acosta tries to pound out Gaziev when he hits the floor, but Gaziev stands and backs off, shaking off the cobwebs. Cortes-Acosta, smelling blood in the water, starts to set something up as he flashes jab after jab.
When the opening presents itself, he hurls a fastball of a right hand that crashes square into Gaziev’s temple. The Bahrain native collapses to his back and clutches his face, still with it but no longer defending himself. Cortes-Acosta drops to a knee to deliver one final hammerfist, but it glances off Bosacki’s protective arm as he has already stepped in to wave things off given Gaziev’s sign of physical surrender.
The fight over, Gaziev slowly rolls to his knees, and he is beside himself after getting smoked like that. That marks four wins in 2025 for Cortes-Acosta, who still wants one more—on December 13 at the year-end Fight Night—and dons his eye patch and bandana to represent his pirate self.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Shamil Gaziev R1 1:22 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Angelo picks Shamil Gaziev over Waldo Cortes Acosta, despite mocking Gaziev's appearance. He notes Gaziev is a much better striker with power and capable wrestling, while Acosta is a grappler who can be outworked and out-athleted. Gaziev should dominate on the feet and keep the fight standing, leading to a win.

"The pick is because he's the much better striker. I think he's a very capable wrestler and he can keep this fight standing."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Big Brady leans Shamil Gaziev by first-round knockout, despite acknowledging Spivak's inconsistency. He believes Gaziev's power and forward pressure will overwhelm Spivak, who has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He notes Spivak's path via grappling but can't count on him to execute.

first round KO
"Give me Gaziev to win this fight and I think it's by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Cody picks Shamil Gaziev but is not confident. He notes both fighters have awful cardio, but Gaziev has better wrestling and power. Cody believes Gaziev can knock out Spivac early, as Spivac gasses quickly and has poor takedown defense. He mentions the location in Qatar might favor Gaziev.

"I'm going to take Shil, maybe a Shil by TKO if you want to get degenerate with it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Connor picks Spivak (Waldo Cortes Acosta), predicting that Gaziev will gas after an early takedown attempt, allowing Spivak to take over with his clinch and jab. He notes Gaziev's poor defensive striking and tendency to fade, while Spivak manages fights well. Connor acknowledges Gaziev's speed and power could lead to an early KO.

Spivak by decision or late TKO; Gaziev could win early
"I'll take Spivak too. But he might also just crush, Ghaziv might also just crush him in the first round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Lucrative James picks Shamil Gaziev, citing his power striking and durability. He notes Sergey Spivac's questionable mentality and recent poor performances. He believes Gaziev's power will be too much and predicts a knockout win. He also mentions Spivac's camp change as a potential negative.

"I think Gazv is probably going to finish him to be honest, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev has knockout power and physicality. Spivac is on a losing streak and may struggle with Gaziev's strength. Gaziev should land a big shot and finish Spivac by the second round.

Gaziev by knockout in round 2
"Give me Gaz and Gaz by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

Paul leans towards Gaziev, citing his wrestling and power. He notes that Spivac has poor cardio and has been finished when tired. Paul believes Gaziev can take Spivac down or knock him out early, but acknowledges it's a greasy fight.

"I'll side with Gazv but um don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Shamil Gaziev

The MMA Guru picks Shamil Gaziev over Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing Gaziev's pressure and ability to barrage opponents. He notes Spivak's vulnerability when pressured. He expects a close decision, with Gaziev undeniable as the fight goes on.

Shamil Gaziev to fight for more than 1.5 total rounds (from earlier prizepicks segment)
"I'm going to go with Shamil Gaziev getting this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Spivak. He notes that Gaziev's cardio is a major issue and that Spivak's reach and jab will become factors as the fight progresses. Zane sees Spivak as a competent heavyweight who can survive early danger and take over late.

Spivak by decision; Gaziev likely to fade
"I'm going to pick him to survive and take over. But yeah, he just might not."
WIN vs Ante Delija
KO R1 3:59 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 12 of 17 70% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ante Delija 0 16 of 36 44% 18 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 12 of 17 70% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ante Delija 0 16 of 36 44% 18 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 12 of 17 70% 9 of 11 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 8 2 of 3 6 of 6
Ante Delija 16 of 36 44% 13 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 12 of 17 70% 9 of 11 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 8 2 of 3 6 of 6
Ante Delija 16 of 36 44% 13 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ante Delija
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-105); Delija (-115)

Round 1
Heavyweights will test the structural integrity of this smaller cage in the co-main event of this Apex card. While Dominican Republic native Cortes-Acosta (14-2, 7-2 UFC) approached the divisional limit by weighing about 263 pounds, former PFL champ Delija (26-6, 1-0 UFC) is in the butter zone of the weight class at 238. Together with referee Mark Smith, they will easily surpass 600 pounds in the cage, but it hardly makes a groan from their weight. Before the two hurl their large fists at one another, they opt to tap their gloves together.
Smith has to tell the two to close their fists right after the fist bump, because they are outstretched towards one another and pushed out those directions. Delija walks Cortes-Acosta down looking for a big right hand, and he takes a clubbing right on the chest for his effort. Delija crashes the pocket and drills “Salsa Boy” on the temple, and Cortes-Acosta responds with a takedown effort that only puts the Croatian man against the wall. Cortes-Acosta digs knees to the body, and when they slow down, Smith asks for more activity. Cortes-Acosta winds up with an effective knee to the ribs, and Delija calmly waits until there is a moment to escape and does it.
Delija flicks out a jab and shoots for a double, and he now has “Salsa Boy” with his back against the wire, dealing with his weight pressed. The larger Cortes-Acosta spins his man around before long, and he raps an elbow on the forehead when otherwise staying close. Delija fights out of the tie-up and wants to box up Cortes-Acosta, marching the Dominican fighter down and busting him in the chops with a furious combination of punches. Delija keeps slugging Cortes-Acosta in the face, hurting him badly, and he pushes out with a left hand to jab Cortes-Acosta in the eyeball before letting loose with a massive stream of punches. Smith gets between them and shouts “stop!” several times, but then has to call the replay official of Herb Dean to check on whether Cortes-Acosta’s eye was poked or if they were all punches landing cleanly and legally. Teammates, medical professionals and commissioners all flood the cage to figure out what happened. The video shows that Delija’s finger slid into the eye socket, and no five-minute clock starts for recovery time. Instead, Smith states that if Cortes-Acosta is able to continue, he does have the ability to restart the fight. It is a bizarre scene, one that is growingly and frustratingly common in the promotion, and it gives Cortes-Acosta one of two options. If he cannot continue, it will be a no contest. If he says he can keep going, the fight will actually resume. Throw out the rulebook at this point. Smith warns Cortes-Acosta for the foul, and with 90 seconds left in the first round, they start fighting again.
They are cautious to engage, both jabbing at one another with their fists firmly closed.
Delija sits down on a jab, and Cortes-Acosta counters him with a brilliant right hand over the top knocking him down to the canvas. Cortes-Acosta leaps on top to pound out Delija, and Smith only lets Cortes-Acosta drum away for a few seconds before waving things off.
This is ridiculous. Cortes-Acosta walks back to his corner and collapses to the mat in pain, clutching his eye and keeping a towel pressed on it for several minutes. He just accomplished an absolutely wild comeback, albeit one that will come with a great deal of scrutiny and review. To say this whole debacle flew in the face of protocols, regulations and procedure is an understatement. We’ll see what happens.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ante Delija R1 3:59 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ante Delija

Angelo picks Ante Delija, believing he is more well-rounded and slightly better everywhere than Waldo Cortes Acosta. He highlights Delija's forward pressure, striking, takedowns, and grit, and notes his win over Marcin Tybura. He thinks Delija will get takedowns, grind, and strike with Waldo, and that Waldo is finally fighting someone better everywhere. He will spend $8,000 on Delija in his DraftKings lineup.

"I think he will get the takedowns. I think he will grind. I think he will strike with Waldo."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his excellent chin and durability, having eaten shots from heavy hitters like Sergey Pavlovich. He notes Ante Delija knocked out Martin Tybura, but Tybura has a weak chin. He expects a competitive fight going the distance, with Waldo's volume and pressure taking over in the later rounds. He predicts a decision win for Waldo.

decision, plus 115 underdog
"I'm going to pick Waldo Cortez A Costa to get the job done. ... Waldo by decision in that one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Connor also picks Waldo, noting that even in the Pavlovich loss, Waldo settled in and made it competitive. He thinks Waldo's fights trend toward the mean and that Delija's win over Tabora doesn't mean much. He expresses distrust in Delija and believes Waldo's unearned confidence will carry him.

"I'll take Waldo."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Lucrative James picks Ante Delija as the underdog, citing his training at a top European heavyweight camp with Tom Aspinall and others, which gives him advantages in sparring and preparation. He believes Delija has knockout power and a grappling edge, especially in clinch positions. While Cortes-Acosta is a better technical boxer with more UFC experience, James favors Delija's early finishing ability and motivation.

"I'm going to take the undernog in this one. I'm going to take Ante Dea."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ante Delija

Delija started as underdog but now is around -140. He mixes his game up better than Spivac, throws harder punches, and masks takedowns and clinch attempts well. This will cause Cortes Acosta problems, leading to a decision win for Delija.

odds movement from underdog to -140
"Delia started off as the underdog, but now finds himself around that minus 140 range and for good reason. ... That should lead to Dio winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The MMA Guru picks Ante Delija, believing he has improved massively and will use low kicks and teeps to outwork Waldo Cortes Acosta. He doubts Waldo's reach and thinks Delija's conditioning and game plan will secure a 29-28 decision. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall.

"I'm going to go with Ante Delija here. I said he's improved massively. I said he would beat Tybura... And he proved me right."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Zane picks Waldo because he believes Delija is a stiff, awkward fighter who relies on one big moment, and Waldo's defining characteristic is not screwing up badly. He thinks Waldo will stay ahead by not making major mistakes and that Delija lacks clear tools to be better. He notes Waldo is the underdog but still picks him.

"So I have to pick Waldo over at Andy Delia."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergei Pavlovich 0 61 of 133 45% 63 of 136 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 45 of 117 38% 45 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergei Pavlovich 0 9 of 28 32% 11 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sergei Pavlovich 0 22 of 43 51% 22 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 20 of 37 54% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sergei Pavlovich 0 30 of 62 48% 30 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 14 of 46 30% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergei Pavlovich 61 of 133 45% 35 of 104 12 of 14 14 of 15 60 of 131 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 45 of 117 38% 27 of 88 4 of 10 14 of 19 45 of 114 0 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergei Pavlovich 9 of 28 32% 6 of 24 1 of 1 2 of 3 8 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 11 of 34 32% 5 of 20 1 of 4 5 of 10 11 of 31 0 of 3 0 of 0
2 Sergei Pavlovich 22 of 43 51% 13 of 32 5 of 7 4 of 4 22 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 20 of 37 54% 15 of 32 2 of 2 3 of 3 20 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sergei Pavlovich 30 of 62 48% 16 of 48 6 of 6 8 of 8 30 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 14 of 46 30% 7 of 36 1 of 4 6 of 6 14 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Round 1
Next up is the lone heavyweight bout of the evening—despite Brian Ortega’s best efforts—as Cortes-Acosta will look to build on his five-fight win streak and certify himself a legitimate title contender. Opposite the surging “Salsa Boy” will be Pavlovich, who seeks to reaffirm his own contender status after righting the ship against Jairzinho Rozenstruik back in February. Tasked with keeping things nice and clean will be referee Marc Goddard. Both big men are in orthodox stance, and both send out tentative jabs in the opening moments. They end up doing some lead-hand jousting as neither seems to want to be the first to go. Pavlovich is calmly maneuvering Cortes-Acosta into the cage. He comes off the fence swinging and there is an inadvertent clash of heads, but both men keep on fighting. They meet near the center of the cage and exchange a flurry of punches, with both men landing cleanly. Cortes-Acosta, far from being backed off by the Russian’s vaunted power, seems emboldened, stepping into the pocket and unloading. He lands several solid punches and takes a big one from Pavlovich in return. Cortes-Acosta lands a hard leg kick and gets countered hard with a right hand over the top. A minute left in the round and both fighters have taken some serious fire but neither is backing down. Cortes-Acosta surges forward and eats a right uppercut. The horn sounds.
10-9 Pavlovich.

Round 2
Cortes-Acosta and Pavlovich pick up right where they left off, and Pavlovich catches his man with another sneaky uppercut as he exits the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands a good jab, and Pavlovich flicks out a front kick up the middle. Cortes-Acosta wades into range with a pair of haymakers, which Pavlovich slips. Pavlovich lands a big left-right combo that hurts the Panamanian. Cortes-Acosta stumbles back into the fence but recovers quickly, and they go back to work. Cortes-Acosta scores with a hard calf kick, and Pavlovich is showing the damage from that one and the several he took in Round 1. Pavlovich cuts off the cage nicely, walks Cortes-Acosta to the warning track and nails him with two hard punches. Cortes-Acosta takes a kick to the midsection, gestures at his cup and appears to want the foul called, but Goddard tells them it was on the belt and to keep fighting. Pavlovich is gradually taking over this fight on the feet, as he is starting to find Cortes-Acosta’s head with his jab and cross over and over again.
10-9 Pavlovich.

Round 3
The final frame opens up, as the first two did, with the heavyweight contenders measuring each other for big right hands in the pocket. Cortes-Acosta lands another hard leg kick and Pavlovich responds with one of his own. Pavlovich cracks Cortes-Acosta with a huge right hand that staggers him, but he recovers in a flash and makes the universal “that didn’t hurt” hand sign. Pavlovich calmly steps forward and appears to have taken his foe’s measure. Cortes-Acosta is reaching and lunging to land his punches, while Pavlovich is composed, squarely over his feet and catching him with clean counters. He is outclassing Cortes-Acosta at this point, and short of some heavyweight weirdness, the main question remaining is whether he will score the knockout. Pavlovich tags Cortes-Acosta with a pair of huge hooks that make him stumble, but doesn’t press the issue. Cortes-Acosta rebounds from the fence, wades back in and gets clocked again. Cortes-Acosta hears the 10-second clapper and gestures at the floor, but Pavlovich is not particularly interested in being on the wrong side of any last-second heroics. The final horn sounds on a quietly dominant performance by the Russian.
10-9 Pavlovich (30-27 Pavlovich).

The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo is confident in Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, calling him more well-rounded, athletic, and durable. He notes that Pavlovich is one-dimensional as a boxer and that Waldo can shoot takedowns and has a giant chin. He has a moneyline bet on Waldo at +225, which he thinks is crazy. He references Waldo's toughness and evolution as a fighter.

Has a moneyline bet on Waldo at +225.
"I have a moneyline bet on him. Plus 225 seems absolutely crazy to me. Waldo's gonna be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win, but with hesitation due to Pavlovich's recent lack of killer instinct since being knocked out by Aspinall. He notes that Pavlovich has been hesitant in recent fights, but if the old Pavlovich shows up, he will knock out Cortes Acosta in the first round. He is worried Pavlovich might stick at range or wrestle, making the fight harder.

Pavlovich by first round knockout if he comes forward
"I'm gonna go Pavlovich here, but I'm not sure I'm that confident."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Connor is confident Pavlovich should win, as he is the first elite-level heavyweight Cortes Acosta has faced. He notes that Pavlovich has better punching mechanics, more power, and a significant reach advantage (84 inches vs 78). However, he worries that Pavlovich might get deer-in-the-headlights against Cortes Acosta's size and durability, leading to a staring contest. Connor also mentions that Pavlovich looked good in his last fight, showing improved wrestling and striking choices.

Odds: Pavlovich opened -350, now -227; Cortes Acosta opened +285, now +192. Connor is surprised Cortes Acosta is getting underdog takers.
"Pavlovich is big enough and strong enough and powerful enough in the way speevok isn't to just get takedowns by merely being there."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The host initially thought he would like the plus money on Cortes Acosta, but after seeing the confidence and discipline from Pavlovich in his last fight, he thinks Pavlovich can shut down the jab of Cortes Acosta and land big shots leading to knockdowns, knockouts, or takedowns. He expects Pavlovich to be in the driver's seat and win on the scorecards.

odds comment: initially liked plus money on Cortes Acosta
"Going into this, I thought I would love the plus money on Cortez Acasta, but seeing the confidence and discipline from Pavlovich from his last fight, I think he can bring that here against Cortez Aosta, shut down the jab …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round KO. He highlights Pavlovich's 14-inch reach advantage and believes he is more athletic, faster, and more powerful than Cortes Acosta. He criticizes Cortes Acosta's close decisions against unranked opponents and notes that Pavlovich has finished similar fighters quickly. He also mentions that Pavlovich can use grappling and low kicks if needed.

Sergei Pavlovich by first round KO; under 70.5 significant strikes combined (PrizePicks)
"I'm going to go with Sergey Pavlovich to win this fight by KO... Nasty KO win first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Cortes Acosta's style is a neutralizer that relies on not doing anything stupid, but Pavlovich's power and athleticism should overwhelm him. He points out that Pavlovich's wins often come from opponents freaking out, but he still has the tools to win. Zane is hopeful Pavlovich can make the fight entertaining.

"Hopefully pavlovich can make this fight as entertaining as we would like."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 48 of 119 40% 53 of 124 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:25
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 110 of 235 46% 111 of 236 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 14 of 36 38% 17 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:36
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 59 45% 28 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 36 of 77 46% 36 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Serghei Spivac 0 16 of 41 39% 18 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 47 of 99 47% 47 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 48 of 119 40% 39 of 109 4 of 5 5 of 5 45 of 115 3 of 4 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 110 of 235 46% 76 of 196 16 of 20 18 of 19 105 of 225 5 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 14 of 36 38% 11 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 59 45% 12 of 41 8 of 11 7 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 18 of 42 42% 12 of 35 3 of 4 3 of 3 17 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 36 of 77 46% 21 of 62 7 of 7 8 of 8 33 of 72 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Serghei Spivac 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Waldo Cortes Acosta 47 of 99 47% 43 of 93 1 of 2 3 of 4 46 of 95 1 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Serghei Spivac
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Spivac (-148), Cortes-Acosta (+124)

Round 1
Mike Beltran is once again the referee. Spivac opens the round with a strong jab and then misses an overhand right. Cortes-Acosta eats a right hand and then a head kick. Spivac is very aggressive early. Nice leg kick lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta throws a left hook, but it comes up very short. Spivac catches a low kick and clinches with Cortes-Acosta. Spivac goes to the body with left hands. Cortes-Acosta is trying to circle out but can't free himself of the clinch. They finally break. Cortes-Acosta resets after eating a jab and then lands a big right hand. Spivac is walking down Cortes-Acosta and keeping him against the cage. The two heavyweights trade jabs. Cortes-Acosta throws a front kick up the middle and then a leg kick. Spivac ends the round defending well as Cortes-Acosta gets more aggressive.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac

Round 2
Spivac once again takes the center of the cage. A big overhand right connects for Cortes-Acosta, who then throws hard to the body. Despite losing the first round, Cortes-Acosta is finding his confidence inside the cage. Spivac is much less active this round. Spivac's jabs are landing. The two trade hooks, with Spivac landing. Hard leg kicks from Cortes-Acosta, who has the more varied attack. Spivac clinches but can't keep him there. Cortes-Acosta's shorts just ripped, but it isn't impacting the action. Cortes-Acosta lands another leg kick, but that allows Spivac to charge forward with a takedown attempt. Cortes-Acosta stays on his feet and then lands a 1-2. Spivac answers back with a high kick that doesn't quite land. Cortes-Acosta is jabbing and going to the body with his punches. Spivac looks to be slowing down as he's unable to match the volume of punches of Cortes-Acosta. 30 seconds left. The two trade jabs. A nice jab to the body by Cortes-Acosta. The round ends with Cortes-Acosta landing a hook to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
Cortes-Acosta gets a new pair of shorts on between rounds, so that crisis is averted. Cortes-Acosta is working his jab well. A huge overhand right hand lands for Spivac. Cortes-Acosta pretends to be totally dazed by the punch, which glances off the side of his head, but Spivac doesn't bite. Cortes-Acosta tries to catch Spivac but eats a big elbow instead. Spivac has the momentum with three minutes left. A nice step-in knee for Cortes-Acosta. Spivac misses with a high kick and then looks to clinch. Cortes-Acosta slips out and answers with a 1-2 combination. Two minutes left. Spivac throws a big right hand, but he's being peppered away at by Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta is showing some fatigue, as he isn't throwing back after slipping punches like he was earlier. Spivac goes for another takedown and picks up Cortes-Acosta. However, Cortes-Acosta gets back to his feet before Spivac can take advantage of the situation. Spivac is eating jabs while whiffing overhand rights. A big straight right lands for Spivac right before the round expires, but it might be too little, too late.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spivac (29-28 Spivac)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Serghei Spivac via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as an underdog, citing his athleticism, speed, power, and improvements since his loss to Del Lima. He thinks Spivac is unathletic and lumbering, and Waldo's foot movement and power will be too much. He bet half a unit on Waldo because he likes betting dogs at that stake.

Bet half a unit on Waldo as a dog.
"I threw a half a unit on him as a bet cuz when I bet dogs, I only do a half a unit instead of a full."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady picks Spivac but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that when Spivac is on, he ragdolls opponents, but when he faces adversity, he folds. He thinks Spivac should be able to take down Cortes Acosta, who has been taken down by lesser wrestlers, and that Spivac can finish by submission or TKO. He predicts a second-round submission but says he probably won't bet it because of the risk.

Spivac by submission in round 2
"I'm going to take Spac, but my concern and and why I probably won't be betting him here is because there is a chance he shows up and it looks like he doesn't want to be there and he gets …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Spivac is expected to deal with Acosta's striking, take the fight to the ground, and keep Acosta on his back until a submission opportunity opens. The pick is for Spivac to win by submission.

win by submission
"I fully expect Spac to deal with Aosta's striking, eventually take this fight to the ground, keeping Cortez Aosta on his back until that submission opportunity opens itself, giving Spac the win by submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Serghei Spivac, believing his grappling will be the edge. He notes Spivac had moments against Jailton Almeida and submitted Marcin Tybura. He worries about Spivac's striking but thinks he can take Waldo down and finish by submission or TKO in the first two rounds. He acknowledges Waldo could win again but trusts Spivac's grappling.

Finish prediction: first round submission or second round TKO. Fight not going past two rounds.
"I'm going to go Sergey Spivac. I'm going to say that Sergey Spivac is going to get his grappling off here and be able to submit Waldo Cortez A Costa."
WIN vs Ryan Spann
KO R2 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 66 of 111 59% 77 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:57
Ryan Spann 0 23 of 86 26% 24 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 49 55% 31 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Ryan Spann 0 12 of 33 36% 13 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 39 of 62 62% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ryan Spann 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 111 59% 56 of 97 4 of 6 6 of 8 59 of 100 1 of 2 6 of 9
Ryan Spann 23 of 86 26% 11 of 70 5 of 9 7 of 7 22 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 49 55% 21 of 40 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ryan Spann 12 of 33 36% 5 of 23 2 of 5 5 of 5 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 39 of 62 62% 35 of 57 3 of 3 1 of 2 34 of 55 0 of 0 5 of 7
Ryan Spann 11 of 53 20% 6 of 47 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-166), Spann (+140)

Round 1
The preliminaries conclude with a heavyweight match that could provide a new contender when the dust settles. Cortes-Acosta (12-1, 5-1 UFC) has won five of six as a full-framed heavyweight, and his opponent Spann (22-10, 8-5 UFC) is introducing himself to the weight class by no longer cutting weight. The ex-205er weighed 249 pounds, so he will be adequately sized as he also stands an inch taller. Referee Mark Smith will be minding his P’s and Q’s as the big men throw down, and he stands by as they clap hands first. Spann strikes first with a heavy leg kick, and Smith tells the heavyweights to watch their extended fingers. Cortes-Acosta responds with his own low kick, but Spann’s has much more behind it. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a left hook, and a big overhand right of his bangs into Spann’s raised guard. Spann kicks high and is blocked, and he kicks low but is not. Cortes-Acosta wades in with winging punches, and Spann is well out of harm’s way in time. Spann hammers the front leg with a kick, and he counters one coming his way with a thudding overhand right that stuns the man from Dominican Republic. Cortes-Acosta leans forward and the two clash heads, and Smith calls time to make sure no damage resulted from it. He resumes them, and the fighters trade punches. Cortes-Acosta catches Spann on the temple with a blistering right hand, and he uses his weight to drag Spann to the fence. Spann breaks free and plunks Cortes-Acosta with an overhand right, but Cortes-Acosta’s uppercut shakes him up again. Both men swing their fists from down beneath their hips, getting full torque into it. They both lash out with low kicks, and Cortes-Acosta checks it and draws a funny reaction from his opponent. Spann comes up short with a front kick, and Cortes-Acosta chews up his front leg with another kick. Spann goes to the body with his front kick, and Cortes-Acosta winds up with bad intentions looping his haymakers at the former light heavyweight. They clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta drives punches into Spann until Spann breaks away and launches some of his own. Spann gets off a low kick and slips out of the way from “Salsa Boy,” and Cortes-Acosta measures his man with a jab and a right hand that hurts Spann again. Cortes-Acosta’s forward momentum results in a tie-up, using his higher weight to toss Spann to his back. Spann tries to upkick him in the legs a few times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The fighters lead off with a brief glove touch, and Spann is quick to fight behind his jab. Cortes-Acosta snaps his head back with a straight right hand, and he is met with a front kick to the belly. Cortes-Acosta jabs his man in the belly, but the fist goes low and bangs into Spann’s cup. Smith calls time, and Spann drops to his knees and takes a little under a minute to recover. They resume, and Cortes-Acosta flashes out his jab as Spann does the same. Cortes-Acosta scores a left and a right, and Spann indicates he was poked in the eye. Smith again pauses the action and checks the replay, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Spann jams the body with a kick, and he wings a huge right hand that Cortes-Acosta rolls with. Spann whiffs on another, and a third is met with a sharp jab from his foe. Spann is irritated about getting poked in the eye, and Smith issues a loud warning to Cortes-Acosta. Spann overthrows his punches, and the Dominican is beating him to the punch and clips the Fortis MMA fighter with his overhand right. Cortes-Acosta kicks the inner thigh, and the strike pounds square into his cup. Smith sighs heavily and calls time one more time. Spann crouches down and is not a happy camper after receiving these fouls, and Smith issues a final warning to Cortes-Acosta to keep things clean. The Texan takes more time than before to get his wind back, with Cortes-Acosta getting away with multiple fouls without a point deduction. The fighters get back to business after another 90-second break, and Spann returns to fighting behind his jab. Spann rifles off a calf kick, and Cortes-Acosta lands a powerful right hand across the forward bow. “Superman” dodges a check left hook but is unable to get away from the jab, and Cortes-Acosta loads up on his overhand right and sways the right direction to avoid one coming his direction. Cortes-Acosta prods with a jab until Spann bears down on him, and he uses the jab again to keep Spann honest. A one-two from Spann does not find its target, and he dances away from a similar pair of blows. Cortes-Acosta’s head movement and footwork keeps him safe, and he clubs Spann in the side of the dome. Spann spins with a back kick, and he shoots for a double that is met with 262 pounds of meat and several punches on the side of the head. Spann explodes back to his feet, and Cortes-Acosta is on him clubbing him with fists.
Spann swings back, still in trouble, and Cortes-Acosta sticks him with a jab and follows with a short left hook that levels Spann. When “Superman” hits the ground, Smith is already racing in towards the fighters, only to allow a few more punctuating hammerfists and punches to briefly shut Spann’s lights out.
Smith gets between them and allows Cortes-Acosta to reposition his foe’s legs who are tangled up with his, and Cortes-Acosta walks off to celebrate his handiwork. The ranked heavyweight calls for fights against either Tai Tuivasa or Derrick Lewis, and both are within his reach given his success in the division thus far.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ryan Spann R2 4:48 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. He believes Waldo is faster, has better movement, and cardio, while Spann's last win was his first in three years against an older opponent. He notes that public money might come in on Spann, making Waldo even better value.

"Waldo's the pick and that's not just because we were both in the movie the burden of Nine Lives."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, reasoning that Ryan Spann is a round-one-or-bust fighter who fades after the first five minutes. He notes Spann's last win outside the first round was a split decision in 2020. Brady believes Cortes Acosta has good durability and cardio, and if he survives the first round, he will take over in the later rounds with higher output. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez aosta by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Julius Walker, noting that the UFC is giving him a bounce-back fight after a competitive debut against Alonzo Menifield. He believes Raphael Cerqueira is a low-level opponent with poor durability and that Walker will win easily. He acknowledges the high price but sees it as a safe play.

"I feel like Julius really puts it on him. And the UFC understands fully. We've seen guys like Martin Budai six and one in the UFC cut. We've seen guys, you know, talented prospects, maybe like a TJ Laramie, he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host believes Cortes Acosta's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, allowing him to run away with the matchup in deep water and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cortez a Costa's ability to keep span at Bay utilizing some decent enough takedown defense keeping this fight in the stand up realm and I think that will see Cortez aosta start to run away with this matchup …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Walker, citing his athleticism and the favorable matchup. He notes that Cerqueira has a padded record and has been knocked out quickly. He believes Walker will roll and sees value in the win, despite the high price.

"Walker for me. You"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, believing in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight. He notes Spann has touch-of-death power and dangerous grappling, though he has bad IQ moments. He criticizes Waldo Cortes Acosta as a 'fat heavyweight' who nearly got fraud-checked by Jared Vanderaa and has poor takedown entries. He thinks Spann's experience against better competition gives him the edge, and he expects a knockout.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span I'm GNA go with Ryan span over wildo Cortez a Costa I believe in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight"
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 52 of 101 51% 130 of 204 3 of 4 75% 1 0 9:49
Robelis Despaigne 0 26 of 52 50% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 6 of 10 60% 34 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:32
Robelis Despaigne 0 2 of 7 28% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 25 of 54 46% 42 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:44
Robelis Despaigne 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 21 of 37 56% 54 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:33
Robelis Despaigne 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 52 of 101 51% 44 of 92 0 of 0 8 of 9 15 of 24 0 of 1 37 of 76
Robelis Despaigne 26 of 52 50% 11 of 36 2 of 3 13 of 13 26 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 6 of 10 60% 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6
Robelis Despaigne 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 25 of 54 46% 22 of 51 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 12 0 of 1 17 of 41
Robelis Despaigne 13 of 28 46% 7 of 21 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 21 of 37 56% 17 of 32 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 8 0 of 0 16 of 29
Robelis Despaigne 11 of 17 64% 2 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 9 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Despaigne (-192), Cortes-Acosta (+160)

Round 1
A heavyweight appetizer kicks off the main card before the main course between big men. Fastball-throwing Dominican Cortes-Acosta (11-1, 4-1 UFC) will ply his trade against skyscraping power puncher Despaigne (5-0, 1-0 UFC) in a pairing that may not go more than a minute or two. Referee Josh Stewart knows that danger is looming, but he is prepped and ready for what’s about to befall these two fighters. The large fists are not bumped before they get down to business. Despaigne keeps his hands low, and he walks through a leg kick and smashes Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand. Despaigne connects with a few more thunderous punches, and Cortes-Acosta answers his offense by shooting in and securing an easy takedown. Cortes-Acosta lands in half guard, where he holds down the taekwondo star and takes a few elbows on the side of the head. Cortes-Acosta is unable to maintain chest-to-chest pressure, but his sitting on the left leg of his foe prevents “The Bad Boy” from going anywhere. Cortes-Acosta starts softening up the body, and Despaigne flails off his back. Cortes-Acosta wrenches on Despaigne’s right arm to set up a keylock, and he begins to torque it on his second effort. Despaigne wriggles his arm free, turning to his side to prevent from being stuck flat on his back. This position allows him to also defend from the few strikes that come at him. Cortes-Acosta grinds his elbow on him and tries to present a forearm choke, but there is nothing to it. Cortes-Acosta rides out the round on top, dragging Despaigne to uncharted territory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
Despaigne starts the round off with a long front kick, and he backs Cortes-Acosta off with long punches. Despaigne kicks low twice, and Cortes-Acosta responds with one of his own. Despaigne lunges forward with a single punch, and he gets caught backing off with a couple of long strikes from the former baseball player. The two trade leg kicks, and Despaigne unloads a head kick that gets blocked and fires one from the other side as well. Cortes-Acosta shoots for a takedown, and this time, the 6-foot-7 fighter stonewalls him. Despaigne breaks free, and the two big men start trading. Cortes-Acosta lands with heavy hands, and he pushes Despaigne back. Despaigne plods forward and whiffs on an overhand right, and the two are sucking wind two minutes into the second round. Despaigne kicks the ribcage, and wings two punches, and Cortes-Acosta signals to him that he has no sting on his punches. Cortes-Acosta nails his man with an uppercut, and Despaigne decides to tie them up. Cortes-Acosta uses the position to secure a body lock and toss Despaigne to the mat, and he climbs directly into full mount. Cortes-Acosta works the body a few times and lands some to the head, and he postures up and starts battering Despaigne with heavy fists. Despaigne twists and turns, only for Cortes-Acosta to sit heavily on top of his abdomen. Cortes-Acosta slams down a couple elbows and opens up with hammerfists and punches, but they are more for dramatic effect than actual stopping power. Cortes-Acosta drives home a few body shots and then goes to the head with punches until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
The heavyweights have unexpectedly reached the third round, and their energy reserves are running low. Cortes-Acosta tosses out a half-hearted low kick, and he misses with another as Despaigne loads up on two of his own. Despaigne sticks out a jab that dislodges the mouthpiece of his opponent, and he reaches with a second. Cortes-Acosta checks a kick and mocks his undefeated adversary, and he easily blocks a jumping switch kick. Despaigne kicks his lead leg a few times, and Cortes-Acosta shrugs at him. Cortes-Acosta gives him one low kick back, and he surges into action with a right hook. Cortes-Acosta slaps a low kick on the front leg, and Despaigne counters him with a front kick that snaps the head back. As the crowd gasps, Cortes-Acosta waves in the air to signal he is fine. Despaigne’s mouth is wide open as his hands are down by his waist, and he walks forward without concern. Cortes-Acosta ties him up and turns him around to push him to the fence, and he scoops the taller man up and deposits him gingerly to the floor. Cortes-Acosta shifts to side control before deciding to move himself back to half guard for control purposes, and he smacks Despaigne a few times and starts talking to someone outside of the cage. Cortes-Acosta bops Despaigne with feeble hammerfists and some light punches, more to stay busy than try to conclude the pairing. Cortes-Acosta is shouting at Despaigne, who is totally defeated and has nothing left to offer. Cortes-Acosta sits up and rains down punches, and Despaigne turns all the way over to grab one leg and defend his mug from ground strikes. Cortes-Acosta keeps hold of Despaigne’s right arm and slams him in the face with his own right until the horrible heavyweight match concludes. Barring something horrendous, Despaigne will be leaving the ranks of the unbeaten, and any confidence of him going far at heavyweight has been shattered to pieces.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (30-27 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Robelis Despaigne via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Angelo picks Robelis Despaigne due to his Olympic taekwondo background, size (6'7"), and insane power. He notes Despaigne's last four fights totaled 37 seconds, but admits there is no data on his chin or cardio. He acknowledges Waldo Cortes Acosta's toughness and durability but believes Despaigne's physical advantages are too much.

"I got to go rob Bellis he's athletic he's tremendous he hits insanely hard"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne to knock out Waldo Cortes Acosta in the first round, likely in the first minute. He is impressed by Despaigne's size (6'7", 87" reach) and his 'death touch,' having knocked out opponents in seconds. He notes that Acosta is not a wrestler, so Despaigne won't have to worry about takedowns. He believes Despaigne is the real deal and passes this step-up in competition.

PrizePicks play: less than 4.75 minutes fight time
"I think rebellis hits Waldo Cortez a Costa so hard that he starts doing the salsa dance and eventually puts him out probably in in the first minute"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Cody picks Despaigne but is leaning, not confident. He notes that Despaigne has never been out of the first round and has massive power and reach. However, he is concerned about Despaigne's lack of grappling and cardio. Cody prefers the under 1.5 rounds prop, which he parlayed with other unders, as it covers both a Despaigne KO or a potential submission loss. He is not willing to bet Despaigne's moneyline due to the unknowns.

Under 1.5 rounds (-200) parlayed with other unders
"I feel like the under one and a half is probably robis is uh his money line is pretty much in tow with that like he either knocks Waldo out or he gets exposed in this spot"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

Daniel Vreeland picks Robelis Despaigne, calling himself on the Despaigne hype train. He notes Despaigne's incredible reach (longest in UFC history), Olympic taekwondo background, and brutal knockouts. He acknowledges that Despaigne hasn't proven it against top competition but believes he will knock out Cortes-Acosta, who has been knocked out in a boxing match before.

by KO
"I'm on the Despaigne hype train now and again what does that truly mean I don't know what the ceiling is yet but I know that there's going to be a lot of brutal Knockouts along the way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The host expects Despaigne to win by first-round knockout, citing his massive size, speed, and power advantage. He notes Cortes Acosta has never been KO'd in MMA but has been knocked out in boxing, and believes Despaigne's style will overwhelm him. He prefers the round 1 KO prop at even money rather than the moneyline at -200. The pick is confident for the finish, though he acknowledges Despaigne's one-dimensional style.

Round 1 KO prop at even money is the better play
"I think that this will be a bad match up for him as rebellis goes out there and finds The Knockout in the first round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Cortes Acosta as a confident underdog. He argues that Despaigne is a mystery with no proven grappling or cardio, while Cortes Acosta has multiple paths to victory: volume, cardio, takedowns, and durability. Paul notes that Cortes Acosta has never been knocked out in MMA and has fought tough competition. He believes Despaigne's lack of experience and training at a small gym will be exposed. Paul sees value at plus money and is willing to fade the hype.

"give me the plus money on Waldo aosta Cortez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robelis Despaigne

The MMA Guru picks Robelis Despaigne over Waldo Cortes Acosta, noting that Cortes Acosta nearly lost to Jared Vanderaa and has questionable wins. He believes Despaigne's reach and kicking background will be key, and that he can chew up Cortes Acosta's legs. He predicts a TKO win, though he acknowledges the odds are closer than expected.

TKO
"I'm going rebellious to Spain... I think he'll win this fight by TKO."
Expert Picks (4)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, highlighting de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, volume, and a good gas tank, and can survive the initial onslaught to take over later. He suggests waiting for live betting to get an even better price on Acosta.

"the pre-flop pick is going to be the the underdog here but again I think you can get an even better price if you wait for that live market"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Connor is unimpressed with Cortes Acosta's limited game and showboating. He thinks de Lima's wrestling and better technique will be decisive. He notes de Lima's tendency to gas but believes Cortes Acosta lacks the technical game to capitalize. He sees de Lima as the clear favorite.

Odds mentioned: de Lima opened -107, currently -175. Cortes Acosta opened -103, currently +155.
"I'm picking de Lima."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul picks Acosta, agreeing with Cody that de Lima is not a good fighter and has terrible cardio. He notes that Acosta has better boxing, head movement, and a good chin, and can outwork de Lima in later rounds. He also mentions that de Lima is a light heavyweight who moved up and has a history of gassing.

"I'm gonna pick Waldo Cortez Acosta but probably a fight I'm more interested from a betting perspective in the live markets"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcos Rogério de Lima

Zane agrees, citing Cortes Acosta's lack of technical foundation and de Lima's superior wrestling and speed. He notes de Lima's history of losing to more technical fighters after gassing, but Cortes Acosta is not that type. He sees de Lima as the rightful favorite.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm picking de Lima."