vs
+210 -200
UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 5"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 0"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Trey Waters
6.39 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
5.83 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.4 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Josh Quinlan
3.57 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
6.38 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
0.34 TD Avg
11.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Trey Waters
Moneyline
Caesars +210
KO/TKO
BetRivers +390
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetRivers +1000
Josh Quinlan
Moneyline
BetWay -200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +123
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
FanDuel +550
Trey Waters - Fight History
LOSS vs Sam Patterson
KO R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his toughness, speed, power, and similar reach advantage. He criticizes Sam Patterson's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He notes that Patterson's length advantage is neutralized by Waters' even longer reach. The only concern is Waters' year-long layoff and potential weight cut issues. He plans to bet on Waters if he makes weight and looks good at weigh-ins.

will bet if makes weight well
"I'm going to pick Trey Waters here. I think Trey is tougher. I think he's faster. I think he hits harder."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Big Brady leans toward Sam Patterson, citing his grappling advantage and submission threat. He notes Patterson's striking defense is poor but believes his move to welterweight helps his chin. He predicts a second-round submission, as Waters was submitted in his only loss.

Patterson by submission, round 2
"I do lean Patterson here. I'm going to take Patterson to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The host notes Patterson is in a groove with a three-fight winning streak and is comfortable at 170 lbs. He expects Patterson to counter-strike Waters, shut down his jab, take him to the ground, and use his BJJ black belt to force a submission.

submission
"I think we'll see that continue into this fight as he counter strikes Waters, shuts down the jab of Waters, and eventually takes him to the ground and looks to utilize his BJJ black belt to force the submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The Guru picks Sam Patterson, highlighting his reach advantage and well-rounded game since moving to welterweight. He notes Patterson's finishing potential in multiple areas, including submissions and TKO, and contrasts that with Trey Waters' lack of a plan B. He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, after some striking exchanges.

submission
"I think Sam Patterson is a very good welterweight prospect in the UFC and I expect him to beat Trey Waters and I'm actually going to say he wins it by submission."
WIN vs Billy Goff
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Waters 0 116 of 249 46% 129 of 265 1 of 12 8% 0 0 4:06
Billy Goff 0 96 of 225 42% 107 of 236 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Waters 0 38 of 91 41% 43 of 96 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:40
Billy Goff 0 38 of 78 48% 45 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
2 Trey Waters 0 51 of 95 53% 54 of 98 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:23
Billy Goff 0 31 of 84 36% 32 of 85 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
3 Trey Waters 0 27 of 63 42% 32 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Billy Goff 0 27 of 63 42% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Waters 116 of 249 46% 64 of 176 18 of 33 34 of 40 108 of 236 8 of 13 0 of 0
Billy Goff 96 of 225 42% 88 of 211 7 of 13 1 of 1 94 of 223 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Waters 38 of 91 41% 24 of 68 3 of 10 11 of 13 35 of 87 3 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Goff 38 of 78 48% 33 of 71 4 of 6 1 of 1 36 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Trey Waters 51 of 95 53% 27 of 66 12 of 15 12 of 14 46 of 86 5 of 9 0 of 0
Billy Goff 31 of 84 36% 29 of 79 2 of 5 0 of 0 31 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Waters 27 of 63 42% 13 of 42 3 of 8 11 of 13 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Goff 27 of 63 42% 26 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his size (6'5" at welterweight), takedown defense, and striking offense. He notes that Waters defended seven takedowns in his last fight and out-struck his opponent. He acknowledges Billy Goff's well-roundedness but believes Waters' size and power will be too much. He mentions the line movement from Goff being a favorite to now a dog.

"Trey Waters has to be the pick he's minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Goff

Big Brady picks Billy Goff to knock out Trey Waters in the second round. He believes Goff will pressure Waters, who has a hands-down style and is hittable, and that Goff's power will catch Waters. He notes that Goff is a dog who can come back from adversity, while Waters has a solid chin but can be hit. He expects a knockout and thinks Goff will be the one doing the serving.

"I'm going to take Billy gof to go out there and do the serving and knock out Trey Waters in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Cody picks Waters, noting his length, volume, and ability to fight at range. He believes Waters can outpoint Goff, who is a brawler with poor defense. Cody mentions that Waters has good cardio and chin, and Goff's wild style leaves openings. He also notes that Goff's takedown threat is uncertain, and if he doesn't wrestle, Waters will piece him up. Cody likes Waters by decision at plus odds.

Waters by decision (+475) is a potential sprinkle
"Trey Waters would be the rifle favor as far as I'm concerned"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Daniel Vreeland picks Trey Waters, citing his significant length advantage (6'5" with 77-inch reach) and smooth striking style. He believes Goff is too hittable and will struggle to close the distance. He predicts Waters will pick Goff apart and eventually get a finish, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"I just think Trey Waters the length the kind of finesse the circling on the outside kind of picking this man apart and eventually getting a finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Billy Goff

The host likes Goff's pressure and durability to overcome Waters' height and reach advantage. He expects Goff to crash the pocket effectively, mix in takedowns, and potentially finish. He notes Waters struggled against pressure and grappling in the past. The pick is a lean, as he acknowledges Waters' tough puzzle but favors Goff's style.

"I think gof can make this very competitive and actually pull off the victory in the spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Paul picks Waters, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Waters has a reach advantage and uses it well, as seen against Quinlan. Goff is a brawler who leaves his chin out and has been hurt before. Paul thinks Waters can avoid Goff's power and outwork him. He is comfortable with Waters as a slight favorite.

"I think Trey Waters does have the recipe here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Trey Waters

The MMA Guru picks Trey Waters over Billy Goff, noting that most people are picking Goff as an underdog but he disagrees. He believes Waters' long, rangy style and distance control will be problematic for Goff, who likes to fight on the inside and walk opponents down. He also questions Goff's level of competition and thinks Waters has more room for improvement.

"I'm going Trey Waters... I think his long lanky style is going to be good enough here."
WIN vs Josh Quinlan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Waters 0 50 of 128 39% 50 of 128 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:54
Josh Quinlan 0 104 of 203 51% 106 of 205 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Waters 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:54
Josh Quinlan 0 29 of 40 72% 30 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Trey Waters 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 35 of 79 44% 35 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Trey Waters 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 40 of 84 47% 41 of 85 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Waters 50 of 128 39% 26 of 102 5 of 7 19 of 19 46 of 124 2 of 2 2 of 2
Josh Quinlan 104 of 203 51% 93 of 189 6 of 9 5 of 5 102 of 201 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Waters 12 of 28 42% 5 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 7 8 of 24 2 of 2 2 of 2
Josh Quinlan 29 of 40 72% 23 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 27 of 38 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Trey Waters 18 of 41 43% 7 of 29 4 of 5 7 of 7 18 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 35 of 79 44% 31 of 73 1 of 3 3 of 3 35 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Waters 20 of 59 33% 14 of 52 1 of 2 5 of 5 20 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 40 of 84 47% 39 of 82 1 of 2 0 of 0 40 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Cody picks Quinlan but is hesitant, noting that Quinlan is undefeated and has knockout power, but has never been tested in later rounds. He worries about Quinlan's cardio and the fact that Waters is tall with a reach advantage. He suggests that if Waters survives the early onslaught, he could work his way back into the fight. He also mentions Quinlan has submissions on his record, which could be a factor.

"I'm gonna take that shot on Trey here are the two things that make me just not want to do it one week's notice man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Connor is high on Quinlan, comparing him to a young Robbie Lawler. He thinks Quinlan's power and athleticism will overwhelm Waters, who has a slick but fragile style. He notes Waters' lack of power and defensive issues, and believes Quinlan will knock him out.

Odds mentioned: Quinlan opened -170, currently -184. Waters opened +142, currently +163.
"I got to take Josh Quinlan here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Paul picks Quinlan and suggests early Quinlan props, noting that Quinlan is a powerful finisher and Waters is on short notice. He is surprised the line is not higher and thinks Quinlan by knockout early is likely. He also mentions that Quinlan has submissions, but the main path is via knockout.

early Josh Quinlan props
"early Josh Quinlan props could be worth a decent look here he's definitely going to be my pick here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Zane agrees, calling Waters' game 'quadruple A' and noting his defensive flaws. He thinks Quinlan's power and pressure will be too much, and that Waters' style is not sustainable at higher levels. He sees Quinlan as a straightforward pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"Quinlan is just going to shock the shit out of him."
Josh Quinlan - Fight History
LOSS vs Adam Fugitt
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Adam Fugitt 0 53 of 126 42% 53 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 80 of 205 39% 80 of 205 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Adam Fugitt 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 22 of 58 37% 22 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Adam Fugitt 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 27 of 62 43% 27 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Adam Fugitt 0 14 of 42 33% 14 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 31 of 85 36% 31 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Adam Fugitt 53 of 126 42% 25 of 93 11 of 14 17 of 19 53 of 126 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 80 of 205 39% 29 of 131 40 of 59 11 of 15 80 of 204 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Adam Fugitt 23 of 45 51% 8 of 29 4 of 4 11 of 12 23 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 22 of 58 37% 4 of 34 11 of 14 7 of 10 22 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Adam Fugitt 16 of 39 41% 8 of 28 3 of 5 5 of 6 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 27 of 62 43% 8 of 35 16 of 24 3 of 3 27 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Adam Fugitt 14 of 42 33% 9 of 36 4 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 31 of 85 36% 17 of 62 13 of 21 1 of 2 31 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Angelo picks Josh Quinlan, noting his power and striking advantage over Adam Fugitt's loose boxing. He thinks Josh can defend takedowns and land meaningful shots. He also notes Adam's year layoff and submission loss, and that Vegas judges don't favor wrestlers. He considers it a close fight but leans Josh.

"I do think Josh Quinlan can defend a few key takedowns land the more meaningful shots and win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Cody picks Josh Quinlan, citing his power and ability to knock out Fugitt, who has been knocked down before. He notes that Quinlan is a BJJ black belt but relies on power punching. Cody is concerned about Quinlan's cardio and volume but thinks he can catch Fugitt early. He calls it a 'dogger pass' and is not highly confident.

"sign me up ever so slightly for Quinland but again a smart guy probably just stays away from this one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Daniel Vreeland is critical of Adam Fugitt's athleticism, speed, and chin, calling him too slow and hittable for the UFC level. He favors Josh Quinlan for his power and athleticism advantage, despite Quinlan's past steroid failures and brutal loss. He believes Quinlan is the harder hitter and more athletic, and that Fugitt is the least athletic guy on the roster.

"I'm gonna go quinland here just because I think he's got the power Advantage um the athleticism Advantage"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Jacob picks Josh Quinlan but is not betting it. He thinks Josh is the better striker and may use his jiu-jitsu if taken down. He notes Josh has been hard to trust since the USADA issues but considers this a step down in competition. He expects a close fight.

"He's my pick but not betting it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Adam Fugitt

Fugitt is coming off a year-long layoff but has changed training camps to Fight Ready in Arizona. His pace, movement, and overall game should be too much for Quinlan's power punching style, leading to a decision win.

"I have to lean with fugit who's coming off of a year-long layoff but has changed up his training camp going down there to fight ready in Arizona"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Adam Fugitt

Paul picks Fugitt for the purpose of the show but states he has no intention of betting the fight. He notes that Fugitt's durability is questionable and Quinlan's power may be overrated. Paul thinks Fugitt could win if he pushes the pace and uses wrestling, but he is not confident.

"for the purpose of the show I'll pick Fugitt but yeah I have no intentions of betting that fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

The MMA Guru picks Josh Quinlan by TKO. He does not rate Adam Fugitt at all, calling him slow and lacking fast-twitch muscle fibers. He thinks Quinlan is more athletic, better in grappling speed and strength, and that Fugitt has to be consistently better for 15 minutes to win, which he doubts. He notes Quinlan took big shots from Danny Barlow and kept trying, and that Fugitt is not a threat to knock him out.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Josh quinland getting a TKO over Adam Fuji it just seems like a no-brainer"
LOSS vs Danny Barlow
TKO (punches) R3 1:18 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danny Barlow 0 39 of 90 43% 39 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 1 95 of 185 51% 96 of 186 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danny Barlow 0 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 35 of 69 50% 35 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Danny Barlow 0 21 of 41 51% 21 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 36 of 79 45% 36 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Danny Barlow 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 1 24 of 37 64% 25 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danny Barlow 39 of 90 43% 22 of 68 14 of 18 3 of 4 39 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 95 of 185 51% 77 of 161 13 of 18 5 of 6 88 of 175 1 of 2 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danny Barlow 11 of 37 29% 6 of 28 4 of 7 1 of 2 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 35 of 69 50% 23 of 55 7 of 9 5 of 5 35 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Danny Barlow 21 of 41 51% 12 of 31 8 of 9 1 of 1 21 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 36 of 79 45% 32 of 71 4 of 7 0 of 1 36 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Danny Barlow 7 of 12 58% 4 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 24 of 37 64% 22 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 27 1 of 2 6 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Angelo picks Danny Barlow but thinks the line is crazy and the fight should be closer to a pick'em. He notes Barlow's patience, power, and grappling, while Quinlan struggled to get his hands going in his last fight. He believes Barlow can control the striking pace.

"I am going to pick Danny but this line is borderline crazy I think this fight should be far closer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Big Brady picks Danny Barlow to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Barlow's massive 80-inch reach (8-inch advantage), devastating left hand, and power. He notes that Josh Quinlan struggled against Trey Waters' reach and that Barlow hits much harder. He believes Quinlan's never been knocked out but that will change here, with Barlow landing a big shot early.

Barlow by KO, round 1
"I think Danny Barlo knocks out Josh quinland in the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Cody picks Barlow, sharing a story about Barlow's punching power at a Nashville event. He notes Quinlan's inactivity and poor performance after his suspension. He believes Barlow's power and skills will be too much for Quinlan, who is primarily a striker. He expects a knockout.

Barlow by knockout (suggested prop)
"I think Barlo just melts him over the top so this is another situation I will just take the Barlo straight up..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Daniel Vreeland picks Josh Quinlan at dog odds, but admits he is not confident. He notes Quinlan's heavy hitting and BJJ black belt, while Barlow is green. He says if forced, he takes the plus money, but is not betting this fight.

"If you put a gun to my head I'll take quinland at dog odds."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Daniel picks Danny Barlow as well, agreeing with Jeff. He notes that Barlow is a big, long knockout artist facing a guy on less than a full camp. He thinks Barlow's reach and power will be too much for Quinlan.

"Barlo is my pick as well so obviously I'm not going to take a guy that big and long who is a knockout artist on less than a full camp."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Jeff picks Danny Barlow, citing his range and power. He notes that Barlow's nickname 'Left Hand of God' is fitting as he puts people out with that hand. He points out that Quinlan is on short notice and that Barlow shares similarities with Quinlan's last opponent, Trey Waters, who outworked him. He sees great value on Barlow.

"I'm going with Barlo I love the range... how do you not take Danny Barlo here I think there's great value on the line too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Barlow is a solid striker with power and speed, especially from southpaw. He has a wrestling background to defend takedowns. Quinlan may rely on BJJ but Barlow keeps it upright and finds a knockout in the first or second round.

"I expect Barlo to keep this fight upright and from there he should be able to find The Knockout within the first or second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Paul picks Barlow, noting his speed and slick striking from Contender Series. He mentions Quinlan's poor performance after a USADA suspension and questions his activity. He sees Barlow as the rightful favorite and a good parlay piece.

"Barlo for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

The MMA Guru picks Danny Barlow, calling him 'nasty work' with explosive but composed striking. He notes Barlow's seven-inch reach advantage and believes he can keep Quinlan at range and sting him with vicious shots. He predicts a brutal first-round KO, citing Quinlan's limitations shown against Trey Waters.

"I'm going to go with brutal first round KO by Danny Barlow who I think is actually a very good prospect."
LOSS vs Trey Waters
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trey Waters 0 50 of 128 39% 50 of 128 1 of 8 12% 0 0 0:54
Josh Quinlan 0 104 of 203 51% 106 of 205 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trey Waters 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:54
Josh Quinlan 0 29 of 40 72% 30 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Trey Waters 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 35 of 79 44% 35 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Trey Waters 0 20 of 59 33% 20 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Josh Quinlan 0 40 of 84 47% 41 of 85 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trey Waters 50 of 128 39% 26 of 102 5 of 7 19 of 19 46 of 124 2 of 2 2 of 2
Josh Quinlan 104 of 203 51% 93 of 189 6 of 9 5 of 5 102 of 201 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trey Waters 12 of 28 42% 5 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 7 8 of 24 2 of 2 2 of 2
Josh Quinlan 29 of 40 72% 23 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 27 of 38 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Trey Waters 18 of 41 43% 7 of 29 4 of 5 7 of 7 18 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 35 of 79 44% 31 of 73 1 of 3 3 of 3 35 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Trey Waters 20 of 59 33% 14 of 52 1 of 2 5 of 5 20 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Quinlan 40 of 84 47% 39 of 82 1 of 2 0 of 0 40 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Cody picks Quinlan but is hesitant, noting that Quinlan is undefeated and has knockout power, but has never been tested in later rounds. He worries about Quinlan's cardio and the fact that Waters is tall with a reach advantage. He suggests that if Waters survives the early onslaught, he could work his way back into the fight. He also mentions Quinlan has submissions on his record, which could be a factor.

"I'm gonna take that shot on Trey here are the two things that make me just not want to do it one week's notice man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Connor is high on Quinlan, comparing him to a young Robbie Lawler. He thinks Quinlan's power and athleticism will overwhelm Waters, who has a slick but fragile style. He notes Waters' lack of power and defensive issues, and believes Quinlan will knock him out.

Odds mentioned: Quinlan opened -170, currently -184. Waters opened +142, currently +163.
"I got to take Josh Quinlan here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Paul picks Quinlan and suggests early Quinlan props, noting that Quinlan is a powerful finisher and Waters is on short notice. He is surprised the line is not higher and thinks Quinlan by knockout early is likely. He also mentions that Quinlan has submissions, but the main path is via knockout.

early Josh Quinlan props
"early Josh Quinlan props could be worth a decent look here he's definitely going to be my pick here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Zane agrees, calling Waters' game 'quadruple A' and noting his defensive flaws. He thinks Quinlan's power and pressure will be too much, and that Waters' style is not sustainable at higher levels. He sees Quinlan as a straightforward pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"Quinlan is just going to shock the shit out of him."
WIN vs Jason Witt
KO (punch) R1 2:09 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Quinlan 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:27
Jason Witt 1 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Quinlan 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:27
Jason Witt 1 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Quinlan 1 of 12 8% 0 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jason Witt 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Quinlan 1 of 12 8% 0 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jason Witt 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Angelo picks Josh Quinlan because of his dangerous striking and power, noting that if Quinlan can defend takedowns he will get a knockout. He acknowledges Jason Witt's wrestling is a threat but questions Witt's chin, which makes him vulnerable. Angelo also mentions he hammered a prop bet on Witt to have more takedowns at -325, but that line has been removed.

Hammered Jason Witt more takedowns prop at -325 (line now removed)
"i still think i'm going with josh quinlan here um you know jason witt's probably one of the more live underdogs because of the wrestling but because of his chin it really just eliminates any of that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Big Brady picks Josh Quinlan to knock out Jason Witt. He notes that all eight of Witt's losses are inside the distance, with six knockouts, and his cardio is poor. Quinlan is a powerful striker who should land something big as Witt slows down. Brady acknowledges the sketchy PED history but sticks with the knockout prediction.

knockout
"i think josh quinlan does knock out jason witt in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Cody picks Quinlan, though he is more nervous due to the catchweight and Quinlan's UFC debut. He notes Witt's wrestling advantage but believes Quinlan's power will eventually land. Cody is not switching his pick from last week.

"i got to stick with my boy josh quinn let me get the job done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Jason Witt

The host mentions Witt as a possible underdog with control time and takedowns, but does not explicitly bet him. He lists him among underdogs that could score well if they win, but does not express strong confidence.

"jason witt control time take downs all that"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Paul picks Quinlan by first-round knockout, noting Witt's poor chin. He mentions Quinlan's power and that the catchweight of 180 lbs might help Witt, but he still expects Quinlan to win early. Paul also likes Quinlan over 95.5 fantasy points on PrizePicks.

Quinlan over 95.5 fantasy points (PrizePicks)
"quinlan knocks him out round one i don't really trust wit's uh chin whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

The host picks Josh Quinlan, noting his steroid use (M3 metabolite) as an advantage and his undefeated prospect status. He expects a first-round KO victory over Jason Witt, who has shown chin issues. The host dismisses USADA's clearance, believing Quinlan still has the substance in his system.

first round KO
"i think he's going to go out there and get a first round ko victory over jason wit"
Expert Picks (4)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Cody picks Quinlan but is hesitant, noting that Quinlan is undefeated and has knockout power, but has never been tested in later rounds. He worries about Quinlan's cardio and the fact that Waters is tall with a reach advantage. He suggests that if Waters survives the early onslaught, he could work his way back into the fight. He also mentions Quinlan has submissions on his record, which could be a factor.

"I'm gonna take that shot on Trey here are the two things that make me just not want to do it one week's notice man"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Connor is high on Quinlan, comparing him to a young Robbie Lawler. He thinks Quinlan's power and athleticism will overwhelm Waters, who has a slick but fragile style. He notes Waters' lack of power and defensive issues, and believes Quinlan will knock him out.

Odds mentioned: Quinlan opened -170, currently -184. Waters opened +142, currently +163.
"I got to take Josh Quinlan here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Paul picks Quinlan and suggests early Quinlan props, noting that Quinlan is a powerful finisher and Waters is on short notice. He is surprised the line is not higher and thinks Quinlan by knockout early is likely. He also mentions that Quinlan has submissions, but the main path is via knockout.

early Josh Quinlan props
"early Josh Quinlan props could be worth a decent look here he's definitely going to be my pick here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Quinlan

Zane agrees, calling Waters' game 'quadruple A' and noting his defensive flaws. He thinks Quinlan's power and pressure will be too much, and that Waters' style is not sustainable at higher levels. He sees Quinlan as a straightforward pick.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"Quinlan is just going to shock the shit out of him."