UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He believes Whittaker is the better striker and will out-volume Gastelum. He notes concerns about Whittaker's chin but points out Gastelum hasn't had a knockout win in four years. He thinks Gastelum's wrestling won't be effective against Whittaker's 84% takedown defense and questions Gastelum's cardio for five rounds. He suggests the decision prop at plus money rather than the moneyline.

Cody believes Whittaker is the better striker with more volume, a longer reach, and a better jab. He expects Whittaker to rack up points on the feet and thinks the fight goes the distance. He notes that Gastelum has a cast iron chin and cardio, but doubts he can get past the hump. Cody prefers Whittaker by decision or over rounds props rather than the moneyline.

Daniel Levi picks Kelvin Gastelum as a plus-money underdog, citing Gastelum's tendency to show up for big fights and his performance against Israel Adesanya where he had it 2-2 going into the fifth round. He notes that Whittaker fights with his hands down and has been dropped before, and that Gastelum had a 100% knockdown rate at 185 until the Darren Till fight. Levi emphasizes that the price is the key factor, as he would pick Whittaker if he were a slight favorite, but at +225 he has to go with Gastelum.

Manpreet favors Whittaker to win a five-round decision, citing his superior striking, ring IQ, and ability to play the outside game. He notes that Gastelum has not been the same since the Adesanya fight, becoming more risk-averse and relying on wrestling, which won't work against Whittaker's improved takedown defense. He believes Whittaker's durability issues are overstated and that he will outpoint Gastelum over 25 minutes.

Paul thinks the line is more or less correct but if forced to bet, he would take Gastelum as an underdog. He notes that Gastelum has never really fit in at middleweight and prefers the over 4.5 rounds at -150. He is not confident in the pick and leans towards the over instead.

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round TKO via head kick. He believes Whittaker's style is built to beat shorter opponents, with oblique kicks, front kicks, and jabs working well against Kelvin Gastelum. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and jab from the waist. He expects Gastelum to lower his hands to deal with body kicks, opening up the head kick. He considers it a safe pick and a bad style matchup for Gastelum.

Big Brady picks Andrei Arlovski to win by decision, though he is not very confident. He notes that Arlovski is a favorite for the first time in many fights and that Sherman is the easiest opponent Arlovski has faced in a long time. He highlights Sherman's poor striking defense (absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute) and Arlovski's good defense (absorbs 2.83). However, he is concerned about Arlovski's age (42) and lack of knockout power. He sees the fight as close and likely to go to decision.

Cody thinks Arlovski is old and boring, landing only 30-50 significant strikes per fight. He notes Sherman is younger, has better output, and is improving. He sees Sherman outpointing Arlovski and considers it a dog or pass fight, leaning towards Sherman as the underdog.

Daniel Levi leans toward Arlovski, noting that he is the better fighter and a sharp counter-puncher. He acknowledges that Chase Sherman has good leg kicks and is 10 years younger, and that Arlovski is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall. Levi mentions that he has faded Arlovski in the past with mixed results, but this time he thinks Arlovski can win a close decision. He also speculates that Sherman might still be using performance-enhancing drugs.

Manpreet leans toward Sherman by KO, citing his improved calf-kick-heavy style and the fact that Arlovski's movement-based game could be neutralized by leg kicks. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Sherman's post-suspension performance but believes Sherman's pressure and power can lead to a finish, likely in the second round after wearing Arlovski down.

Paul says friends don't let friends bet on Chase Sherman, but he is leaning towards Sherman as the underdog. He acknowledges both fighters are bottom heavyweights and that Sherman is 11 years younger. He is not confident and calls it a pitbull or pass fight.

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski to win by unanimous decision. He notes Arlovski is a tricky veteran who is patient and pushes a good pace. He believes Chase Sherman needs to overwhelm opponents to win, but Arlovski's level of opposition is much higher. He expects Sherman to go all out in the first round, but Arlovski will take over in the second and third for a 29-28 decision.

Big Brady picks Abdul Razak Alhassan to win by first-round knockout. He notes Alhassan has a 100% finish rate, all by knockout in the first round. He believes Malkoun is not ready for this level of competition, citing Malkoun's loss to Phil Hawes where he fell from the first punch. He suggests if Malkoun survives the first round, he could be a live betting opportunity, but he expects a brutal knockout within the first 60 seconds. He also mentions Alhassan's recent losses but considers this a favorable matchup.

Cody thinks Alhassan has tremendous power and will likely finish Malkoun in the first round. He notes that Malkoun is not a natural middleweight and was knocked out quickly by Phil Hawes. He acknowledges Alhassan's cardio issues but believes Malkoun is not physical enough to exploit them. He suggests live betting Alhassan or taking him by knockout.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Abdul Razak Alhassan, stating that this fight is about Razak, not Malkoun. He believes Malkoun does not belong in the UFC and is only there because he is Robert Whittaker's training partner. Levi notes that Razak has been through a lot mentally but expects him to knock Malkoun out in the first round. He also mentions that Razak is actually bigger than Malkoun in terms of height and reach.

Manpreet is confident Alhassan will win by first-round knockout, noting that all his UFC wins have come in round one and that Malkoun was knocked out quickly by Phil Hawes. He believes Alhassan's power and aggression will overwhelm Malkoun, who is a natural welterweight moving up and has questionable durability. He recommends the round one prop at plus money.

Paul calls this fight 'prime apple pie shit' because Alhassan has failed as a favorite multiple times. He notes that Alhassan has no cardio and his takedown defense disappears when tired. However, he thinks Malkoun is not good enough to take advantage. He is reluctant but leans Alhassan, and mentions a 20-1 prop on Malkoun by submission as a longshot.

The MMA Guru picks Abdul Razak Alhassan to win by unanimous decision, though he calls it risky due to Alhassan's recent rough patch. He criticizes Jacob Malkoun's rushed career and poor performance against Phil Hawes. He doubts Malkoun's ability to finish or outpoint Alhassan, and believes Alhassan will be patient and grind out a 30-27 decision.

Big Brady picks Tracy Cortez to win by decision. He highlights Cortez's excellent wrestling (3 takedowns per 15 minutes) against Kish's poor takedown defense (55%). He notes that Kish has not faced a wrestler of Cortez's caliber and that Cortez should have no problem getting takedowns and controlling the fight. He expects a dominant decision with multiple takedowns and top control. He suggests the decision prop at -120 as a better value than the moneyline.

Cody believes Cortez will secure takedowns and grind Kish down. He notes Kish is raw, makes mistakes, and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Cortez's wrestling is her bread and butter and that she will win by decision. He is confident in the pick.

Daniel Levi picks Tracy Cortez, citing her disciplined style and takedown ability. He notes that Justine Kish is aggressive but leaves openings for takedowns, and Cortez will stay true to her game plan. Levi believes Cortez will take Kish down and control the fight, winning a unanimous decision. He also mentions that Cortez has a higher ceiling and is working with a good team.

Manpreet is confident Cortez will win by decision, citing her superior wrestling and top control. He notes that Kish is durable but has poor takedown defense and struggles off her back, as seen in the Felice Herrig fight. He believes Cortez will grind out a decision, making the decision prop a safe play.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Kish has lost to grapplers and has not improved. He thinks Cortez's wrestling will be even better at 125 lbs. He expects a 29-28 decision for Cortez.

The MMA Guru picks Tracy Cortez to win by unanimous decision. He notes Cortez is younger, has a reach advantage, and a better record with good competition. He criticizes Justine Kish's recent losses and lack of impressive wins. He expects Cortez to secure takedowns at the end of rounds to win close rounds, possibly 30-27.

Big Brady picks Luis Peña to win by submission. He acknowledges Peña's poor takedown defense (45%) but argues that Peña's ground game is underrated, with good submissions and reversals. He believes Peña has a striking advantage and can threaten submissions off his back. He notes that Munoz is a good wrestler but may put himself in bad positions. He sees Peña's submission as a likely outcome and mentions the submission prop at +330, though he would prefer better odds.

Cody is very critical of Peña, calling him overrated with poor striking and takedown defense. He notes that Peña gives up takedowns to everyone and has no power. He thinks Munoz, a wrestler, will take Peña down and control him. He likes Munoz as an underdog and expects a better performance in his second UFC fight.

Daniel Levi hesitantly picks Luis Peña, acknowledging that Munoz is a D1 wrestler with a strong double leg. He is concerned about Peña's emotional state and past performances, especially his submission loss to Kamuela Kirk. However, Levi thinks Peña is the better overall fighter and should win if he can keep the fight at range and avoid being grinded out. He notes that this is a dog-or-pass situation from a betting perspective.

Manpreet leans toward Munoz by decision, highlighting Peña's poor takedown defense (47%) and Munoz's strong wrestling background. He believes Munoz will repeatedly take Peña down and control him on the ground, avoiding submissions. He notes that Peña has lost as a favorite before and that Munoz's cardio should hold up for three rounds.

Paul is not high on Peña either, but he is less confident. He notes that Munoz is a wrestler and that Peña has poor takedown defense. He thinks Munoz could win by controlling the fight on the ground. He is leaning towards Munoz but not strongly.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Munoz to win by unanimous decision, citing his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Munoz is the wrestling coach at Team Alpha Male and has a good wrestling background. He believes Peña is a bottom-tier lightweight and that Munoz will push a good pace for three rounds, winning 30-27. He acknowledges the risk of Peña taking Munoz's back but trusts Munoz's ability.

Big Brady picks Juan Espino to win by submission, but with very low confidence. He sees the fight as a 50/50 matchup and sides with the dog due to hype driving Romanov's line. He notes that both fighters are grapplers and that Romanov is unlikely to submit Espino, a legit black belt. He questions Romanov's cardio and believes Espino may have the edge if the fight goes past the first round. He is passing on betting due to the uncertainty but picks Espino to weather the storm and possibly get a late submission.

Cody is a Romanov fan and thinks he has better cardio, boxing, and youth (10 years younger). He notes Romanov's cardio looks good in deeper fights, while Espino has only fought 3 minutes in the last 3 years. He believes Romanov can stuff takedowns and win by pressure. He acknowledges Espino's BJJ but thinks Romanov's wrestling and gas tank will be the difference.

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov, stating that he is a future top-15 heavyweight and is being undervalued. He criticizes Juan Espino's competition on The Ultimate Fighter, calling it weak. Levi believes Romanov is more well-rounded and will win the wrestling and clinch battles, possibly finishing Espino. He also notes that Espino is 40 years old and Romanov has a higher ceiling.

Manpreet favors Romanov, citing his youth, cardio, and wrestling pressure. He notes that Espino is 40 years old and has fought weak competition, while Romanov has shown he can grind opponents down over three rounds. He believes Romanov's explosiveness and strength will overwhelm Espino, likely leading to a TKO in the second round.

Paul thinks Espino is a legitimate BJJ black belt with good wrestling and a complete game. He notes that Romanov has a hole in his leg kick defense but Espino doesn't throw leg kicks. He is leaning towards Espino but not confident, calling it a dog or pass fight. He mentions that Espino's age (40) and lack of recent octagon time are concerns.

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound, but calls it risky. He notes Romanov is younger, undefeated, and has more localized weight for grappling. He expects Romanov to stuff takedowns and use kicks to the body and legs, then take over in the second round after Espino has an adrenaline dump. He does not see Romanov submitting Espino.

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by dominant decision. He notes that Penne is 38 years old, hasn't fought in nearly four years, and hasn't won in six years. He believes Godinez has a massive striking advantage and is strong enough to get back up if taken down. He expects Godinez to stuff takedowns and out-strike Penne. He does not see a finish likely as Godinez has no knockout wins and Penne is tough to submit. He considers Godinez a parlay piece but not in his own parlay.

Cody is very high on Godinez, praising her boxing, takedown defense, and cardio. He thinks Penne is old (38), has been out for years due to USADA, and has a history of getting hit and bleeding. He expects Godinez to keep the fight standing and win by decision or late TKO. He likes the third round finish prop at 16-1.

Daniel Levi picks Loopy Godinez, noting her crisp hands and toughness. He questions what happens if the fight goes to the mat, as Godinez's competition has been subpar, but believes she will piece up Jessica Penne on the feet. Levi mentions that Penne is nearing 40 and has been through a lot, including a USADA case, and that she has shown hesitancy in recent fights. He expects Godinez to win, possibly by knockout.

Manpreet picks Godinez by decision, but with hesitation due to Penne's long layoff and Godinez's unproven level. He believes Godinez's boxing and pressure will overwhelm Penne, who is 38 and has been away for four years. He expects Godinez to out-strike Penne over three rounds, though he notes Penne's submission threat if the fight goes to the ground.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Godinez has crisp boxing and power for 115 lbs. He thinks Penne's stand-up is marginal and she has been finished by elite fighters. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at +255 and Godinez by knockout. He is confident in Godinez winning.

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez to win by close decision. He doubts Jessica Penne's dedication after a long layoff since 2017, suggesting she may not have been training. He notes Godinez has a decent amateur career and some good wins, though not amazing. He believes Penne's mind may not be in the fight at 38 years old.

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert to win by submission. He notes that Fabiński is a wrestler who will likely get takedowns but leaves himself in bad positions, and Meerschaert is a submission machine with 22-23 submissions. He believes Meerschaert's striking is better and that Fabiński's four losses include three by submission. He expects Meerschaert to find a submission off his back or after a sweep. He suggests betting the submission prop as the most likely outcome.

Cody is a Fabiński fan and thinks his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Meerschaert's submissions often come against tired opponents, and Fabiński has good takedown defense and can avoid submissions. He expects Fabiński to take Meerschaert down and control him for a decision. He admits it's an emotional bet.

Daniel Levi picks Gerald Meerschaert, acknowledging that Bartosz Fabiński will likely control the fight with takedowns but will leave his neck open for submissions. Levi notes that Meerschaert is a serious black belt with many submissions, but his recent performances have been poor and he may be past his prime. He expects Meerschaert to catch Fabiński in a guillotine or similar submission, but admits it could go either way.

Manpreet leans toward Meerschaert by submission, noting that Fabiński has been submitted in two of his last three fights by grapplers. He believes Meerschaert's BJJ black belt and experience give him a chance to catch Fabiński in a submission, especially as Fabiński's takedown-heavy style leaves him vulnerable. He recommends a half-unit sprinkle on the submission prop.

Paul thinks Meerschaert has a submission advantage and a striking edge if the fight stays standing. He notes that Fabiński is one-dimensional and susceptible to submissions. He is leaning towards Meerschaert as an underdog but is not confident. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds as a safer play.

Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard to win by decision. He notes that Bush is coming in on short notice and that Hubbard has faced tough grapplers throughout his UFC career, which should prepare him for Bush's wrestling. He believes Hubbard has superior cardio and toughness, and can survive Bush's early storm. He expects Hubbard to take over in rounds 2 and 3, possibly with a late finish. He is not surprised by the close odds but thinks Hubbard should be a bigger favorite.

Cody thinks Hubbard has proven cardio and the ability to break down wrestlers. He notes that Bush is taking the fight on short notice and is not as good a wrestler as Hubbard's previous opponents. He expects Hubbard to stuff takedowns, pressure Bush, and win by decision or late finish. He is confident in Hubbard.

Daniel Levi picks Dakota Bush for the upset, citing his power and momentum. He notes that Bush is taking the fight on short notice, which is a concern, but believes Bush is the more dangerous fighter and could steamroll Hubbard early. Levi mentions that Hubbard is average and has not shown much, while Bush has fought real competition. He thinks the line should be closer and that Bush has a good chance if he is in shape.

Manpreet leans toward Bush by decision, citing his college wrestling background and Hubbard's history of struggling against grapplers. He believes Bush will take Hubbard down repeatedly and control the fight on the ground, despite coming in on short notice. He notes that Hubbard's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers and that Bush has never been finished.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Hubbard has faced tough wrestlers and performed well. He thinks Bush is a step down in competition and that Hubbard's cardio and pressure will be too much. He is confident in Hubbard winning.

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely to win by dominant decision. He believes Gravely's wrestling will be too much for Birchak, and that Gravely will have no problem getting takedowns. He acknowledges Gravely's submission losses but notes they came against elite grapplers. He thinks Birchak is not on that level and that Gravely should control the fight. He expects a 30-27 unanimous decision with takedowns and control time, and mentions a possible finish.

Cody thinks Gravely's chain wrestling and takedown volume will overwhelm Birchak. He notes that Birchak has poor takedown defense and has been submitted multiple times. He expects Gravely to rack up takedowns and control time, possibly getting a submission in the third round. He is very confident.

Daniel Levi confidently picks Tony Gravely, stating that Anthony Birchak is past his prime and not UFC caliber. He praises Gravely's wrestling and power, noting that his submission defense is better than perceived. Levi expects Gravely to win by unanimous decision, possibly with a finish by grinding down Birchak. He also mentions that Birchak was brought in on short notice and is outmatched.

Manpreet is confident Gravely will win by decision, highlighting his wrestling pressure and top control. He notes that Birchak is content to fight off his back and has poor takedown defense, as seen in his recent loss. He believes Gravely will grind out a decision, making the decision prop a strong play at plus money.

Paul agrees that Gravely's wrestling will be the key. He notes that Birchak is past his prime and has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He expects Gravely to dominate with takedowns and control. He is confident in Gravely winning.

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely to win by third-round TKO via ground and pound. He believes Gravely is an underrated bantamweight prospect with good grappling and stand-up skills. He notes that Birchak has good jiu-jitsu awareness and won't be submitted, but expects Gravely to wear him down in later rounds. He emphasizes that Gravely's losses are to high-level opponents, which shows confidence from his coaches.