UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 0"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
4.39 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.36 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.73 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kelvin Gastelum
3.67 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.53 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Robert Whittaker
Moneyline
FanDuel -260
KO/TKO
BetWay +210
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetWay +140
Kelvin Gastelum
Moneyline
FanDuel +215
KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetWay +500
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
SCHED vs Nikita Krylov
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 66 of 142 46% 70 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Reinier de Ridder 0 67 of 145 46% 192 of 282 2 of 15 13% 0 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 16 of 38 42% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
3 Robert Whittaker 1 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Reinier de Ridder 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:39
4 Robert Whittaker 0 6 of 22 27% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Reinier de Ridder 0 14 of 24 58% 37 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:56
5 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 18 50% 73 of 83 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 66 of 142 46% 62 of 135 4 of 7 0 of 0 51 of 123 4 of 5 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 67 of 145 46% 41 of 105 26 of 40 0 of 0 54 of 128 9 of 11 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 20 of 34 58% 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 15 of 35 42% 6 of 19 9 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 30 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 9 of 27 33% 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 16 of 38 42% 12 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Robert Whittaker 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 13 1 of 1 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 13 of 30 43% 10 of 24 3 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 4
4 Robert Whittaker 6 of 22 27% 6 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 14 of 24 58% 10 of 18 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 11 of 31 35% 9 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 9 of 18 50% 3 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.

"I'm going to pick him. Low confidence pick here, but I am going to go with Renier."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I like Whitaker here. ... I think he probably does knock out Ditter late in the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.

Odds movement from -190 to -140 suggests line movement, but Connor is surprised de Ridder is only +120, calling it 'basically dead even' and saying 'I don't see it.'
"I'm going to take Robert Whittaker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think Whitaker won't have as much trouble dealing with Ditter in the striking realm. And I think we'll see Whitaker stuff the takedowns of Derritter, keep this fight upright, pick the Ritter apart, and eventually find that finish in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.

Submission, round 3, rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Raina Derida. ... I'm going to say submission victory for Raina Derida. ... third round rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.

"Yeah, it's just not a, it's not a fight that we've ever seen Whitaker lose... I expect it to look like a pretty easy fight for Whitaker."
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Submission (face crank) R1 3:34 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 3 of 4 75% 25 of 31 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)

Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.

Second leg of villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it misses.
"hamzat is going to be the pick he is the second leg of that villain parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.

first round submission; live bet on Whittaker if fight reaches third round
"I'll go chamaya first round submission I think it's a great live bet spot though if this fight reaches the second and a half uh the round and a half mark the third round I would take a look at …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.

"I'm going with Robert Whitaker as well but I'm looking to live bet after the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"I am going to be a sucker and pick Whitaker."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.

submission (rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke)
"I'm calling either a rear naked choke or a Dar choke finish"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.

inside the distance
"I think jayv is going to get the W here probably inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.

Whittaker wins by decision or late finish (rounds 4-5)
"I like Whitaker here to pull off the upset"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.

"give me the guy with you know the former champion in this division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.

TKO fourth round
"I'm going with Robert Whittaker getting this one done TKO fourth round finishes Chimaev who's gassed out."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.

"I picked wittaker going in so i have to eat a little crow but even picking wittaker my feeling was look wittaker when he loses he absolutely melts down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.

Whittaker opened at +167, currently +197; Chimaev opened at -190, currently -220
"Yeah, me too. We're really setting ourselves up."
KO (punches) R1 1:49 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Ikram Aliskerov 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 14 of 21 66% 12 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2 12 of 18 0 of 0 2 of 3
Ikram Aliskerov 5 of 15 33% 3 of 10 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.

No bet due to short notice concerns
"I think rram wins this fight not confident enough to bet on it I wish the odds were wider so I could but I am going to pick rram here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.

"I got to go Whitaker here there's no way I can I can pick against Whitaker it's a show me spot"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.

"I gota go with Robbie Knuckles to uh to get a win here but I'm expecting it to be a competitive main event that you're going to be puckered up in because I mov is a first round knockout guy"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.

"I'm gonna go Robert Whitaker here but proceed with caution because again when Fighters are I don't know if I want to call it the Twilight of his career because again he's only 33"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.

No bet placed
"I'm going rram here but I'll be honest I I haven't bet it you I still respect Bobby and you know that short notice and you know five rounds and I haven't eded yet but as a pick I'm going …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.

Aliskerov by decision (dog money)
"I see rram doing the exact same thing I think it goes to decision because I think Rob's tough I think Rob can hang in there I think rro by decision dog money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.

"I can't really back him at this price until he kind of proves against a higher level of competition that he belongs in there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.

"I am going to go with Whitaker I believe in Whitaker here if he loses it will change my entire opinion on MMA so we'll see."
WIN vs Paulo Costa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 95 of 175 54% 95 of 175 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 67 of 151 44% 67 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 38 of 62 61% 38 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 27 of 49 55% 27 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Robert Whittaker 0 32 of 55 58% 32 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 26 of 54 48% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Paulo Costa 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 95 of 175 54% 63 of 143 4 of 4 28 of 28 95 of 172 0 of 3 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 67 of 151 44% 39 of 117 8 of 12 20 of 22 67 of 151 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 38 of 62 61% 26 of 50 1 of 1 11 of 11 38 of 61 0 of 1 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 27 of 49 55% 16 of 38 4 of 4 7 of 7 27 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 32 of 55 58% 20 of 43 3 of 3 9 of 9 32 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 26 of 54 48% 16 of 43 2 of 3 8 of 8 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 25 of 58 43% 17 of 50 0 of 0 8 of 8 25 of 56 0 of 2 0 of 0
Paulo Costa 14 of 48 29% 7 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 7 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.

"I'm still going to pick Whitaker here I'm probably gonna leave him out of the safety parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.

Whittaker by decision
"give me Robert Whitaker Robert Whitaker by decision this fight doesn't happen probably"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as steamed line)
"Whitaker is going to be the pick for me as well I think he just throws more volume is a little bit more tactical in his approach he has to avoid the bomb but it's like..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.

"I feel like Paulo Costa was never that great... I think Whitaker's gonna beat Costa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.

"I think if he's able to stay away from the big Power that Costa presents he should be able to get up on the judges scorecards and win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.

Whittaker by decision (mentioned as potential prop)
"I just got to go with the better technique the cleaner guy uh to I think just win a decision I don't see him knocking out Paul a Costa but again I think with his footwork in his jab stay …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.

I love this being in the bigger cage by the way that's a huge part of this fight.
"I'm going for Robert Whittaker here... Whitaker speed will shock him and stumble him off balance."
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 0 74 of 166 44% 74 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 33 of 116 28% 38 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 22 of 56 39% 22 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 14 of 41 34% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Robert Whittaker 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 10 of 45 22% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
3 Robert Whittaker 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Marvin Vettori 0 9 of 30 30% 11 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 74 of 166 44% 49 of 138 6 of 9 19 of 19 72 of 163 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 33 of 116 28% 15 of 94 7 of 10 11 of 12 33 of 116 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 22 of 56 39% 15 of 48 1 of 2 6 of 6 22 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 14 of 41 34% 6 of 33 5 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 25 of 53 47% 17 of 43 3 of 5 5 of 5 25 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 10 of 45 22% 4 of 36 1 of 3 5 of 6 10 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 27 of 57 47% 17 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 8 25 of 54 0 of 0 2 of 3
Marvin Vettori 9 of 30 30% 5 of 25 1 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.

Moneyline bet placed at -235; line moved to -300s; likely decision win
"whitaker is an easy pick here he's going to be faster have the far cleaner striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.

"i think whitaker does does win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.

Whittaker wins by decision
"I'd take Robert Whittaker... the over under set 280 I think to the over and yeah I think this thing's going a decision so if you want to try to improve that 210 price tag on Robert Whittaker almost certainly …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.

Fight goes to decision; Vettori by KO at +1200 (mentioned by co-host)
"I'm gonna go Whitaker but I'm just sketched about it because at some point I think that drop-off will come I just don't know when it's gonna be"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.

Whittaker by decision (minus 105)
"Give me Bobby Knuckles via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.

"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly to the dogma of inventory to pull off the upset here... I think marvin vittorio obviously is only three years younger but it's like in terms of like robert whittaker's 31 with city miles."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.

Whittaker wins by decision 30-27
"i think the main problem that vettori has is talent and skill"
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 1 79 of 169 46% 98 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 59 of 136 43% 74 of 151 4 of 10 40% 0 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
4 Israel Adesanya 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 16 of 35 45% 19 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
5 Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 22 59% 24 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 0 10 of 19 52% 17 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 79 of 169 46% 36 of 108 14 of 23 29 of 38 77 of 167 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 59 of 136 43% 38 of 105 8 of 11 13 of 20 54 of 130 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 18 of 34 52% 3 of 14 4 of 6 11 of 14 18 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 9 of 21 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 5 of 8 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 16 of 41 39% 9 of 30 0 of 2 7 of 9 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 33 36% 7 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 33 51% 11 of 24 3 of 4 3 of 5 16 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 12 of 28 42% 9 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 5 12 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 15 of 39 38% 6 of 26 5 of 7 4 of 6 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 16 of 35 45% 10 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 13 of 22 59% 7 of 14 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 10 of 19 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.

buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for Robert Whittaker
"i like israel adasana to win by decision in a very very competitive fight and i may buy a few rounds on the judge's scorecard for robert whitaker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.

Adesanya by late knockout
"i'm going to take honasanya pretty confidently probably my first or second most confident pick of the card"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i just don't think i've seen enough from robert whittaker since the first meaning to really leaning his favor"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.

"I still have to go with izzy I design it here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.

Whittaker by decision; value at +225
"i do like bobby knuckles in this spot i think he's a very good bet especially at plus 225 and i don't care what anybody says"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.

under 4.5 rounds +105
"i think it's going to be the same old thing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.

decision
"i'm going with israel desanya"
Kelvin Gastelum - Fight History
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.

"I have to pick Kelvin here. If you refuse to bet on him, I get it. No pressure. He should win, and honestly, I think these odds are actually pretty appropriate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.

second round knockout
"My hot take of the week is Kelvin Gastelum gets his first knockout since 2017 against Vicente Luque... I think he knocks out Vicente Luque in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.

"I think Gaston wins it... either he's going to get knocked out and separated from consciousness or just be one punch behind the punch stats every round and end up losing a tight decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.

"We got to pick Gasolim."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.

"I got Kelvin as well. One last thing here is this fight's at 185 and not 170. So, Luque I think that benefits Kelvin significantly here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.

"I'm going to pick Kelvin Gastlam to come out here and knock out Vasante Luca."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.

"I've got Kelvin Gasselum here quite confidently. Honestly, I think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.

Gastelum wins by knockout
"I think we'll see Gastam eventually land those big shots. ... I think he wins by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.

"I still trust Kelvin Gastelum. It's like if they get into a firefight to be able to take that punch... Kelvin's one of the guys that are uh in my parlay arsenal this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going to go with Kelvin over Vicente Luque."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum, agreeing that Luque at middleweight doesn't track. He notes that Gastelum's game is a middleweight game and that Luque has lost speed and reaction time. He expects Gastelum to win by being the more natural middleweight and having the power advantage in the pocket.

"I'm not going to pick Vicente Luque up at middle weight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 1 57 of 117 48% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 64 of 146 43% 69 of 151 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 24 of 49 48% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Kelvin Gastelum 1 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:13
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 57 of 117 48% 30 of 81 16 of 24 11 of 12 56 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 64 of 146 43% 25 of 93 25 of 34 14 of 19 55 of 134 4 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 25 56% 4 of 14 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 24 of 49 48% 3 of 23 13 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 23 of 43 53% 14 of 30 6 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 52 38% 10 of 35 8 of 12 2 of 5 20 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 33 of 99 33% 34 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 2 57 of 114 50% 58 of 115 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 2 21 of 39 53% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 11 of 50 22% 11 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 29 48% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 33 of 99 33% 13 of 69 11 of 17 9 of 13 32 of 98 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 57 of 114 50% 44 of 99 12 of 14 1 of 1 51 of 104 3 of 3 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 8 of 20 40% 3 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 21 of 39 53% 16 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 7
2 Kelvin Gastelum 11 of 50 22% 2 of 34 6 of 10 3 of 6 11 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 17 of 40 42% 12 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 29 48% 8 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 19 of 35 54% 16 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer because Kelvin Gastelum is unreliable with poor work ethic and weight issues. He notes Kelvin has a granite chin and power, but Joe is a powerful striker with slick BJJ. He warns Joe not to get frustrated if the knockout doesn't come quickly. He thinks the 4-to-1 odds are fair but not a cakewalk.

"Joe Piper should win this fight. As long as Joe is not expecting a quick knockout and then getting frustrated when he doesn't get it, Joe should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady likes Joe Pyfer more now that the fight is at sea level instead of Mexico City. He believes Pyfer can win by any method: knockout, submission, or decision. He notes Pyfer's size, power, and black belt in jiu-jitsu, and that Gastelum has been submitted before. He thinks a decision is most likely due to Gastelum's durability, but sees Pyfer as the better fighter overall.

Pyfer by decision most likely
"I like Piper here quite a bit. Kelvin Gastlam is going to be very undersized."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pyfer. He emphasizes that Gastelum's best wins are against smaller or older opponents, and Pyfer's size and power pose a serious threat. Connor notes that Gastelum's defensive flaws and reliance on his chin make him vulnerable, especially at middleweight where he is not as big.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Connor thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think in that context, you really have to pick Pfeiffer here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum can deal with Pyfer's power and then get to his own striking game, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots, possibly mixing in takedowns. His durability, cardio, and strength of schedule will allow him to get the victory over the younger Pyfer.

"I like me some Gastam in this spot as I think he can deal with the big power that Piper brings to the table and then from there he can get to his own striking game where he does a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by submission in the first round. He notes Pyfer's muscle advantage and underrated grappling, citing his training with Sean Brady and his submission wins. He believes Pyfer will land big shots early, then take Gastelum down and submit him with an arm triangle. He mentions Gastelum's granite chin but thinks Pyfer can finish him.

Finish prediction: first round submission (arm triangle). Also mentioned in PrizePicks: Pyfer lands under 49.5 significant strikes.
"I'm going to take Joe Pyer by submission in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Gastelum is inconsistent and relies on his chin, which may be fading. He points out that Pyfer is bigger, hits harder, and has a cleaner striking game. Zane references the Hermanson fight where Pyfer won the first two rounds before fading, and believes in a three-round fight Pyfer's early power will carry him.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Zane thinks the line is too wide but still picks Pyfer.
"I'm going to take the bigger, harder, cleaner puncture."
CANCEL vs Joe Pyfer
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Kelvin Gastelum as a significant underdog, arguing that Joe Pyfer has not proven himself against top competition and that his wins are over faded or lower-level fighters. He notes Gastelum has fought much better opposition, has better cardio, and has been training at elevation in Mexico for a month, including in the mountains. James believes Pyfer's gas tank is suspect and that Gastelum can survive early danger and win in later rounds. He sees value at plus 260 odds.

Value on Gastelum at plus 260. Mentions Pyfer's size and early power but questions his cardio and level of competition.
"I think there's value on Kelvin gum here because it's still a show me spot for Joe Piper he has to show me that he's worthy of a minus 320 price tag."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 112 of 238 47% 123 of 250 4 of 4 100% 0 0 2:47
Daniel Rodriguez 0 127 of 265 47% 132 of 273 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 44 of 93 47% 45 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Daniel Rodriguez 0 46 of 91 50% 46 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 86 43% 39 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:25
Daniel Rodriguez 0 53 of 113 46% 53 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 31 of 59 52% 39 of 68 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:17
Daniel Rodriguez 0 28 of 61 45% 33 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 112 of 238 47% 77 of 193 14 of 20 21 of 25 105 of 226 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 127 of 265 47% 82 of 214 36 of 41 9 of 10 127 of 265 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 44 of 93 47% 27 of 70 6 of 10 11 of 13 44 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 46 of 91 50% 25 of 67 15 of 17 6 of 7 46 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 86 43% 27 of 72 4 of 6 6 of 8 37 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 53 of 113 46% 38 of 97 13 of 14 2 of 2 53 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 31 of 59 52% 23 of 51 4 of 4 4 of 4 24 of 47 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 28 of 61 45% 19 of 50 8 of 10 1 of 1 28 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.

No bet; odds too high for an unreliable fighter
"Kelvin gastam is a giant waste of talent but Talent is the key word he is very good... I'm still going to lean Kelvin I'm going to trust him but I'm not spending you can't spend money on this guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.

"give me Kelvin gastam by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.

"gum is going to win he is going to likely win a decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.

"I'm gonna go with the plus 200 dog here I'm gonna go with D Rod to to win a probably a decision against uh Kelvin Gaston"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.

Might bet Rodriguez as a dog
"minus 250 minus 260 for a guy like Kelvin gastam at this point it's like what are we doing... I believe El Kelvin should be the favorite I would price it likeus 125 minus 130 something like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.

Fight goes to decision
"I think I'm going to go with Rodriguez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.

"Gastelum will be the pick but I hope he wrestles"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.

by decision, maybe a rear naked choke
"I'm going to go Kelvin Gastelum here is he an underdog I wonder if he's an underdog here he might be I'd like it if he was he's a [__] favorite [__] off why is he a big favorite man."
LOSS vs Sean Brady
Submission (kimura) R3 1:43 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 14 of 24 58% 97 of 130 5 of 5 100% 3 0 9:06
Kelvin Gastelum 0 18 of 32 56% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 5 of 10 50% 38 of 53 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:22
Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
2 Sean Brady 0 8 of 11 72% 51 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
Kelvin Gastelum 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Brady 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 3 0 1:13
Kelvin Gastelum 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 14 of 24 58% 8 of 16 1 of 2 5 of 6 7 of 15 1 of 1 6 of 8
Kelvin Gastelum 18 of 32 56% 7 of 19 7 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 21 61% 6 of 14 5 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 12 4 of 5 1 of 4
2 Sean Brady 8 of 11 72% 5 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7
Kelvin Gastelum 2 of 6 33% 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Brady 1 of 3 33% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-130), Gastelum (+110)

Round 1
Welterweights get the call, as Brady (15-1, 5-1 UFC) looks to rebound from his first career loss in a three-round showdown with Gastelum at 170 pounds. Gastelum (18-8, 12-8 UFC) has lost five of his past seven bouts and remains one of the most enigmatic fighters on the roster.
For more on the Kings MMA rep, see “5 Defining Moments: Kelvin Gastelum” in Features
. Montalvo draws the officiating assignment. Gastelum immediately moves to the center of the cage. Brady clinches, works punches and knees to the body and eats a short elbow. He pushes Gastelum to the fence and completes his first takedown. The Daniel Gracie disciple floats to the back, threads his hooks and goes to work on the next. Brady bites down with a body triangle just 90 seconds into the bout. Gastelum scrambles free, takes top position and feeds his opponent punches. Back on the feet, they return to the center of the Octagon. Gastelum sneaks in a right hand. Brady connects with two left hooks and then powers into top position, moving to the back. Gastelum inches toward the fence, but Brady is relentless. Gastelum gets back to his feet, only to get returned to the mat. Brady works his ground-and-pound from behind, then moves to the back in the waning seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 2
Gastelum steps forward in his southpaw stance, fires a few inside leg kicks and fails to manage distance properly. Brady ducks in for another takedown and sets up in half guard. Starting to look like an awful stylistic matchup for Gastelum. Brady climbs to full mount, then back to half guard. He mounts again. Gastelum surrenders his back to create a scramble but finds no escape. Brady shifts back to mount. Probably only a matter of time before Gastelum breaks. Brady hammers away with elbows, floats to the back and shows no regard for his counterpart’s ground game. Fans grow restless, but Brady is running circles around Gastelum here. Brady works from a kneeling mount, with a seated Gastelum underneath him. With 30 seconds left, this has turned into an absolute rout. Brady drags him back to the canvas as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 3
Brady works from the center of the cage. Gastelum sneaks in a straight left, but Brady closes the distance yet again and completes another takedown. Fans boo. Brady sets up in half guard, then floats to mount and frames an arm-triangle. Gastelum escapes.
Brady now isolates the right arm and threatens a kimura. He cranks on the shoulder and forces the tap. This one was never competitive
.

The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Kelvin Gastelum—Submission (Kimura) 1:43 R3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Big Brady picks Sean Brady to get back on track, believing his wrestling and control will be the difference. He thinks Brady can take down and control Gastelum for at least two rounds, winning a decision. He acknowledges Gastelum has the edge on the feet but thinks Brady can hold his own. He calls it a close fight and wouldn't bet on either side.

"I'm going to take Shawn Brady to get back on track here I think this is a good fight to do it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Cody picks Brady, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Gastelum's poor takedown defense and offensive wrestling (0 for 11 in last two fights). He thinks Brady can take Gastelum down and control him on the ground. He also questions Gastelum's speed at welterweight and his ability to handle Brady's grappling.

"I think that Shawn Brady's one of the best uh pure Jiu-Jitsu guys in the division now can he tie the other skills together maybe maybe not but yeah I I think that if this fight hits the ground he's …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Lucrative James leans towards Kelvin Gastelum after rewatching tape. He notes that Sean Brady has shown poor striking defense and cardio issues in fights against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa. Gastelum is a good boxer and could hurt Brady. However, he remains cautious about Gastelum's weight cut and how he will look at 170.

"I'm leaning more on the Kelvin gastam side as the the week goes along"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is moving back to welterweight, where he has looked best, and has shown improved conditioning and training at Fight Ready. He has slick boxing, power, and underrated grappling. Brady is a strong wrestler with a BJJ black belt, but he struggled against Belal Muhammad's range and volume. Gastelum's speed and power on the feet, plus his ability to scramble, should give him the edge. A decision win is predicted, with a potential late finish.

decision win predicted
"I like gastam here as the dog like I think that he is far more skilled all around than Brady"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul is willing to side with Gastelum at welterweight, citing his striking advantage and improved physique. He will wait for weigh-ins to ensure Gastelum makes weight and looks healthy. He thinks Gastelum has a massive striking advantage and that this is a good spot to jump back on the Gastelum train.

"I'm willing to side with Gastelum at 170 I'm going to wait until the weigh-ins to ensure that like you know that he makes it and doesn't look like Skeletor"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, criticizing Sean Brady's performance against Belal Muhammad where he shut down after being clipped. He believes Gastelum's boxing, durability, and finishing ability are superior on the feet. He predicts Gastelum wins by TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in second or third round
"I'm gonna go with Kelvin Gastelum over Shawn Brady... I think if this is on the feet I just like the boxing durability toughness and finishing ability of Kelvin Gastelum."
WIN vs Chris Curtis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 70 of 201 34% 80 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 83 of 188 44% 88 of 195 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 65 30% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 56 41% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 88 42% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 70 of 201 34% 44 of 164 21 of 30 5 of 7 63 of 193 7 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 83 of 188 44% 63 of 161 5 of 8 15 of 19 76 of 172 3 of 6 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 48 27% 8 of 40 1 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 64 46% 20 of 51 0 of 0 10 of 13 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 65 30% 11 of 51 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 56 41% 20 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 3 19 of 44 0 of 2 4 of 10
3 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 11 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 83 5 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 68 44% 23 of 59 4 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

moneyline bet
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick I do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

"I like I like Curtis to win ... I'll take Chris Curtis to win by like a split uh decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Curtis by decision at +240; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"Chris Curtis by decision I'll tell you that much"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

"Yeah, same."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

"I'm locked and loaded on Chris Curtis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

"I think this is probably the most favorable matchup that Calvin gaslim has had during this entire slump maybe with the exception of the Ian heinish fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

Curtis by decision at +240; over 2.5 rounds at -220; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"sign me up for Action Man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

round three finish, body shot
"I'm gonna say Curtis finishes him in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

"I'm going to pick Chris Curtis because I think he's going to land the better shots."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 1 81 of 207 39% 91 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 89 of 246 36% 89 of 246 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Jared Cannonier 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 1 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 15 of 54 27% 15 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
4 Jared Cannonier 0 15 of 45 33% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
5 Jared Cannonier 0 13 of 34 38% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 81 of 207 39% 51 of 162 20 of 31 10 of 14 79 of 205 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 89 of 246 36% 48 of 187 22 of 36 19 of 23 88 of 243 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 19 of 45 42% 11 of 26 5 of 13 3 of 6 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 22 of 57 38% 11 of 39 4 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 17 of 43 39% 10 of 35 2 of 3 5 of 5 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 24 of 59 40% 15 of 47 4 of 7 5 of 5 23 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 17 of 40 42% 12 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 1 16 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 15 of 54 27% 9 of 45 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 15 of 45 33% 9 of 38 6 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 16 of 41 39% 6 of 28 7 of 8 3 of 5 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jared Cannonier 13 of 34 38% 9 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 12 of 35 34% 7 of 28 2 of 2 3 of 5 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier, citing his reach advantage, power, and striking accuracy. He notes Cannonier is in his prime at 37, while Gastelum seems to be declining. He believes Cannonier's leg kicks and size will be key, and he predicts a third-round knockout, giving Gastelum his first KO loss.

third round knockout
"i'll take him here i think the six inches of reach is going to be huge"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum as a dog, citing his cardio, five-round experience, and wrestling advantage. He notes Cannonier's low volume, hesitancy, and questionable cardio in longer fights, and points out Gastelum has never been knocked out. He suggests betting live after Gastelum loses early rounds.

Bet live after Gastelum loses first round or two; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"i think kelvin gaslin could hustle him up a plus 130 i'm going to take the dog shot here it's a dog or pass main event for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is the better all-around fighter with five-round experience and cardio advantage. Cannonier has knockout power but has never been stopped, and his cardio is unproven in later rounds. I think Gastelum weathers the early storm and takes over in rounds 3-5, winning by decision or late finish.

Gastelum by decision (+225); live bet on Gastelum after round 1 or 2
"i'm gonna be taking calvin gaslum and i'm going to be taking gas limits uh via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gastelum at plus money. He emphasizes Gastelum's durability (never knocked out) and Cannonier's potential gas tank issues in later rounds. He also mentions the possibility of betting Gastelum live if he loses early rounds.

Bet live if Gastelum loses early rounds; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"gun to my head i'm betting kelvin gastle in my plus 130"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier to win by TKO, focusing on leg kicks. He notes Cannonier's vicious leg kicks (as seen against Whittaker and Silva) and Gastelum's heavy lead leg and lack of leg support. He predicts Cannonier will chop down Gastelum's legs, then catch him with a straight right as Gastelum lunges. He also mentions Gastelum's quick turnaround and accumulated damage.

TKO via leg kicks and straight right
"i'm gonna go with jared cannon here by tko leg kicks i think will chop down kelvin gastelum"
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He believes Whittaker is the better striker and will out-volume Gastelum. He notes concerns about Whittaker's chin but points out Gastelum hasn't had a knockout win in four years. He thinks Gastelum's wrestling won't be effective against Whittaker's 84% takedown defense and questions Gastelum's cardio for five rounds. He suggests the decision prop at plus money rather than the moneyline.

Decision prop at plus money suggested instead of moneyline
"i'm gonna take robert whitaker to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody believes Whittaker is the better striker with more volume, a longer reach, and a better jab. He expects Whittaker to rack up points on the feet and thinks the fight goes the distance. He notes that Gastelum has a cast iron chin and cardio, but doubts he can get past the hump. Cody prefers Whittaker by decision or over rounds props rather than the moneyline.

Whittaker by decision, over 3.5 rounds, over 4.5 rounds, fight goes the distance
"i'd say robert whittaker is a better striker he's going to throw more volume he's going to throw the more significant strikes he's the longer ranger guy he's got a better jab he can fight from the outside you should be able to just rack up these points on kg …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel Levi picks Kelvin Gastelum as a plus-money underdog, citing Gastelum's tendency to show up for big fights and his performance against Israel Adesanya where he had it 2-2 going into the fifth round. He notes that Whittaker fights with his hands down and has been dropped before, and that Gastelum had a 100% knockdown rate at 185 until the Darren Till fight. Levi emphasizes that the price is the key factor, as he would pick Whittaker if he were a slight favorite, but at +225 he has to go with Gastelum.

plus 225 odds on Gastelum
"since i get a plus 225 on kelvin i got to go with him i know he's going to fight for my money here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Manpreet favors Whittaker to win a five-round decision, citing his superior striking, ring IQ, and ability to play the outside game. He notes that Gastelum has not been the same since the Adesanya fight, becoming more risk-averse and relying on wrestling, which won't work against Whittaker's improved takedown defense. He believes Whittaker's durability issues are overstated and that he will outpoint Gastelum over 25 minutes.

Whittaker by decision +150; over 3.5 rounds -155
"i think that this is going to look like a quintessential robert whitaker five-round decision fight where he's just plotting on the outside and then crashes forward gets his shots off the more impactful shots off and then winning a decision here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul thinks the line is more or less correct but if forced to bet, he would take Gastelum as an underdog. He notes that Gastelum has never really fit in at middleweight and prefers the over 4.5 rounds at -150. He is not confident in the pick and leans towards the over instead.

over 4.5 rounds at -150
"if i was forced to actually make a bet on it it would be kelvin gastelum but uh i've never loved him at middleweight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round TKO via head kick. He believes Whittaker's style is built to beat shorter opponents, with oblique kicks, front kicks, and jabs working well against Kelvin Gastelum. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and jab from the waist. He expects Gastelum to lower his hands to deal with body kicks, opening up the head kick. He considers it a safe pick and a bad style matchup for Gastelum.

second round TKO via head kick
"i'm picking robert whittaker to win this fight"