Angelo notes that Meerschaert is a very good grappler always live for a submission, though he has a questionable chin and poor takedown accuracy. Barberena is a fun brawler who doesn't use his wrestling and has been taken down 18 times in his last three fights. Angelo thinks the more likely outcome is Meerschaert gets a takedown and snatches a submission, but warns he cannot be trusted as a 2-to-1 favorite.

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round submission. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense and submission losses, and expects Meerschaert to get the fight to the mat and submit him. He is wary of Meerschaert's chin but thinks Barberena's recent form is too poor.

Cody picks Gerald Meerschaert, emphasizing the size advantage. He notes Barberena is undersized at middleweight, having ballooned to 240 lbs and struggled to make 170. He points out Barberena was taken down 13 times in his last fight and lacks the power to hurt Meerschaert. He sees Meerschaert's size and grappling as decisive.

Lucrative James picks Gerald Meerschaert to win by submission, likely in round two or three. He believes Barberena is on a downward trajectory and lacks the power to knock out Meerschaert. He notes that Barberena has a significant grappling disadvantage and that Meerschaert is opportunistic with submissions. He mentions that he won't play the moneyline but might bet on a round prop.

The host is surprised Meerschaert is a big favorite, as he believes Barberena has good enough defensive grappling to deal with Meerschaert's less-than-average wrestling. He notes Barberena has shown improvements in getting back to his feet and letting his hands go, and expects Barberena to have the striking advantage, leading to a knockout in the third round as Meerschaert fails on his grappling attempts.

Paul also picks Meerschaert but with hesitation. He acknowledges Barberena's toughness and grit, but notes Meerschaert's inconsistency and tendency to lose rounds before pulling off a finish. He warns that this could be a 'pie in the sky' situation where Meerschaert's flaws are overlooked. Still, he expects Meerschaert to win due to size.

Angelo thinks Muradov is the better fighter with cleaner technique and should win by decision, but he is hesitant to lay -275 due to Barberena's toughness and never-say-die attitude. He picks Muradov but will likely leave the bet out.

Big Brady picks Makhmud Muradov to knock out Bryan Barberena in the second round. He questions Barberena's move up to middleweight, noting he was small for welterweight and is now massively undersized. He thinks Barberena's durability has declined and Muradov is the better striker. He calls the matchup 'weird' and thinks Barberena is on a three-fight skid.

Cody picks Muradov, noting Barberena moving up to 185 is a big disadvantage. He thinks Muradov's size and power will be too much, and he can mix in wrestling. He mentions Barberena's takedown defense is poor and he takes a lot of damage.

Daniel bet Muradov at -250 to win 2 units (risking 5 units). He believes Muradov is a real middleweight in the best shape of his life, while Barberena is moving up from welterweight and will be slower and more hittable. He notes Barberena's takedown defense is poor and Muradov has good footwork and power. He expects Muradov to win by knockout or decision, and thinks the line should be closer to -350 to -400. He is confident Muradov bounces back after a tough loss.

The host picks Makhmud Muradov, citing his technical striking, speed, and discipline as keys. He notes Barberena is moving up in weight and Muradov will be much bigger. He thinks Muradov should be closer to -200/-230 but still expects a win by decision, unless Barberena lands a Hail Mary.

Paul picks Muradov, citing Barberena's age, fight style, and inability to grapple. He thinks Muradov can win by KO or decision using his jab and takedowns. He notes Barberena's chin may be fading.

Angelo picks Nelson but is not betting. He thinks Nelson's ground game is far superior and Barberena is tough but not technical. He notes Nelson's takedowns are telegraphed but Barberena will close distance and get clinched. He worries Nelson might not be motivated and could be a parlay buster.

Big Brady picks Nelson confidently, citing Barberena's atrocious takedown defense (taken down multiple times by lower-level fighters). He believes Nelson will take him down and submit him early. He predicts a first-round submission, noting Barberena was just submitted by RDA.

Cody picks Nelson, emphasizing Barberena's poor takedown defense and tendency to give up his back. He notes Nelson's elite back-taking and body triangle control. He thinks Nelson wins by decision or submission, but after Nelson's last fight where he didn't chase submissions, he's less sure about a finish. He says the line is reflective of what should happen but feels trappy due to Nelson's inactivity and age.

Connor picks Nelson based on his wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes that Barberena is slow-footed and vulnerable to takedowns, as shown by RDA easily taking him down. Nelson has a quick shot and good clinch trips. Connor acknowledges that Nelson's striking defense is poor and he can be shocked standing, but believes Nelson's path to victory is clear via takedowns and control. He also mentions that Barberena's scrambling is solid but Nelson's control grappling is superior.

Jacob calls Nelson his most confident play on the card. He thinks Barberena is not a powerful puncher and will struggle with Nelson's range. He expects Barberena to close distance and get taken down via body clinch. He notes everyone takes Barberena down and Nelson should dominate on the ground.

Nelson is a high-level grappler with a karate-style striking base, but has struggled against top competition. Barberena is a durable brawler who has been finished by technically better fighters. Nelson should be able to take the fight to the ground and submit Barberena, though the submission prop may not offer value at the expected line.

Paul does not make a clear pick. He discusses the trap potential: Nelson has had one fight in four years, is a small welterweight, and may not be the same fighter. He notes Barberena's ability to get back to his feet and that Nelson could get outstruck if he doesn't get a submission. He says he doesn't have the cojones to pick Barberena but has zero confidence in Nelson at the price.

The MMA Guru picks Gunnar Nelson to win by rear-naked choke, citing Barberena's short notice and defensive flaws exposed by Rafael dos Anjos. He notes Barberena repeatedly made the same mistake of lowering his stance, allowing inside trips. Nelson is a technical grappler who will exploit that and find a finish. He does not see Barberena having success on the feet either.

Angelo picks Rafael dos Anjos, calling him the better fighter everywhere: more technical striking, much better grappling, higher fight IQ, and higher level of competition. He notes RDA is 38 and coming off a KO loss, but trusts him to grapple early and often. He thinks Barberena's 44% takedown defense and lack of one-punch KO power (except against Lawler) make RDA the pick.

Big Brady is extremely confident in RDA, citing a massive step down in competition and a favorable stylistic matchup. He notes Barberena's poor takedown defense (55%) and defensive irresponsibility, and RDA's advantage everywhere. He expects RDA to win however he wants, predicting a decision but noting a finish is possible.

Cody agrees RDA wins handily, citing his elite wrestling and Barberena's poor takedown defense. He notes RDA hasn't finished anyone recently but expects multiple takedowns and control. He prefers the over 2.5 takedowns prop over significant strikes.

Daniel Levi picks RDA to win by decision, mixing in takedowns. He acknowledges Barberena's durability and power (dropped Leon Edwards) but believes RDA's wrestling and blending of attacks will be too much. He is not interested in betting at the heavy price (-550) and calls it a pass.

The host is very confident in dos Anjos, calling him a 'lock of the night' essentially. He believes dos Anjos is far superior and will mix his striking and takedowns to control Barberena. He notes Barberena's struggles against grapplers like Jason Witt. He expects dos Anjos to win by decision but says he wouldn't bat an eye at parlaying him at the price.

Paul sees RDA as dominant everywhere and expects a straightforward win. He notes Barberena's durability but thinks RDA can finish him, especially inside the distance. He mentions RDA's takedown-heavy style and Barberena's poor takedown defense.

Angelo picks Barberena, emphasizing his forward pressure, volume, and durability. He notes that Lawler is declining and didn't look great against Nick Diaz. Barberena's high strike output (186 vs Matt Brown, 195 vs Vicente Luque) is seen as the difference-maker.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Bryan Barberena, citing his youth and volume, but admits neither fighter looks great. He notes Lawler's recent win over Nick Diaz was his first in years, and Barberena has taken damage. He expects a close decision and advises against betting.

Cody thinks Lawler's power and experience will be too much for Barberena, who has shown poor wrestling defense and bad decision-making. He expects Lawler to mix in takedowns and win a gritty fight.

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Bryan Barberena as the underdog, citing that Lawler is 40 years old and may not have the same ferocity. He notes that Barberena can still dig deep and throw high output, while Lawler has recently resorted to old habits like shadowboxing. Levi acknowledges that Lawler could win if the old 'Ruthless' version shows up, but he sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and prefers the underdog price.

This is a great stylistic matchup for Lawler; Barberena will stand and trade. Lawler's power and experience should prevail. The only concern is Lawler's age (40), but his power is the last thing to go. Lawler by decision or KO is likely.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Lawler's significant strikes over 73.5 on PrizePicks is a good play. He expects a brawl and thinks Lawler will get the job done.

Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.

Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.

The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.

Angelo picks Jeremiah Wells via inside the distance/decision no action at +120. He notes Wells has power and BJJ, while Matthews has poor fight IQ. Angelo likes the safety net: if Wells wins by finish he gets paid, if Matthews wins by decision he gets a refund.

Big Brady picks Jeremiah Wells as a dog, noting that the line doesn't make sense to him. He highlights Wells' impressive debut win over Warlley Alves, his training at Renzo Gracie Philly with top guys, and his solid wrestling and takedown defense. He contrasts Wells' explosiveness and power with Jake Matthews' inconsistent performances and lower level of competition. Brady believes Wells can win a decision or even finish, and gives Wells the cardio advantage.

Cody picks Barberena but with low confidence, noting that Barberena's best days are behind him and he takes a lot of damage. He thinks Barberena could grind out a win but is not reliable as a favorite. Cody mentions that Weeks is inexperienced and that Barberena's toughness might carry him.

Daniel Levi picks Bryan Barberena to win, citing his veteran savvy and experience. He notes that Barberena has seen a different level than Weeks, who is a newcomer with only five pro fights. He acknowledges that Barberena may be in decline but thinks he still has enough in the tank to hand Weeks his first loss. He warns about the risk of a declining fighter taking on a young athletic kid with finishing power.

Jacob makes Jeremiah Wells the lock of the week, putting 4 units on him. He cites Wells' power, BJJ black belt, and Matthews' lack of KO power since 2013. Jacob notes if Wells gets tired or lunges, it's not his fault, but he loves Wells all the way.

I like Barberena. He is a veteran who has fought top competition and should be too much for Weeks, who is green and on short notice. Barberena has good durability and cardio, while Weeks tends to slow down. I expect Barberena to take over as the fight goes on and possibly finish in round three. The decision prop at plus 285 and round three finish at plus 1000 are both appealing.

Paul picks Weeks as an underdog, noting that Barberena is shot and takes too much damage. He thinks Weeks has power and could catch Barberena, but admits he doesn't know much about Weeks. Paul is not confident but sees value in the plus money.

Big Brady picks Bryan Barberena, citing his much higher level of competition and Witt's poor chin. He notes Barberena's high volume and power, and that Witt has been knocked out in all his losses. Brady expects Barberena to find the chin or possibly get a submission, predicting a first-round knockout.

Cody hesitantly picks Bryan Barberena, acknowledging his experience and toughness but expressing major concerns about his recent form, injuries, and layoffs. He notes that Barberena has looked slow and out of shape, and his takedown defense has declined. Cody believes Witt could win by grinding out takedowns, but he still thinks Barberena's grit might pull through. He calls it a 'bad gut feeling' and does not have confidence commensurate with the -265 price.

Levi is confident Barberena will win by knockout. He praises Barberena's iron jaw, farm strength, and punching power, noting he has gone the distance with top welterweights like Leon Edwards, Colby Covington, and Vicente Luque. Levi criticizes Jason Witt's chin, implying it is weak, and believes Barberena will land a fight-ending shot. He acknowledges Witt's path to victory via takedowns but thinks Barberena's power will be too much.

Barberena has the power to knock out Witt, who is chinny. However, Barberena is coming off a long layoff and multiple surgeries, and he's not a one-punch KO artist. If he doesn't finish early, Witt's wrestling and top control could be problematic. The value is on Barberena by KO rather than the moneyline. He should get the job done early.

Paul leans towards Jason Witt as a live underdog, citing Barberena's decline and Witt's wrestling advantage. He notes that Witt has a better coach and game plan, and that Barberena's recent performances have been poor. Paul believes Witt can take Barberena down and control him, especially if Barberena's cardio is lacking. He is not fully confident but sees value in the plus money.