vs
+135 -120
UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Chepe Mariscal
4.14 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.66 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.34 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Trevor Peek
4.39 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.88 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
1.45 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Chepe Mariscal
Moneyline
Caesars +135
KO/TKO
BetRivers +300
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
FanDuel +900
Trevor Peek
Moneyline
BetWay -120
KO/TKO
BetMGM +125
Submission
BetWay +1800
Decision
BetMGM +1000
Chepe Mariscal - Fight History
LOSS vs Pat Sabatini
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 0 12 of 29 41% 40 of 61 7 of 12 58% 0 0 10:37
Chepe Mariscal 0 7 of 19 36% 48 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 0 4 of 11 36% 8 of 15 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:39
Chepe Mariscal 0 1 of 4 25% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:33
2 Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 13 53% 21 of 31 4 of 8 50% 0 0 3:36
Chepe Mariscal 0 5 of 10 50% 32 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Pat Sabatini 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:22
Chepe Mariscal 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 12 of 29 41% 10 of 24 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 2 of 2 6 of 9
Chepe Mariscal 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 2 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 13 1 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 4 of 11 36% 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 6
Chepe Mariscal 5 of 10 50% 1 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 5 1 of 3 0 of 2
3 Pat Sabatini 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3
Chepe Mariscal 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, praising his pressure, wrestling, and scrambling ability. He believes Chepe is the better striker and wrestler, and that Pat Sabatini's striking is stiff and he is chinny. Angelo is confident and placed a bet at -113, expecting the line to expand.

bet at -113 odds
"Chepee is the pick. And right off the rip, we've got a pretty affordable money line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal as a slight underdog, acknowledging a clear path for Sabatini via wrestling but favoring Mariscal's striking power. He notes Sabatini's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Damon Jackson and Diego Lopez, and believes Mariscal can exploit that. Brady sees Mariscal's judo as helpful in getting back to his feet and predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"Give me Chepe Mariscal to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, noting that his grappling is elite and that Mariscal has been taken down by everyone. He believes Sabatini has learned from his knockout losses and will stick to wrestling. Cody thinks Sabatini can grind out a decision or possibly submit Mariscal. He is not fully confident but sees the path.

"I actually have him going Pat Sabatini."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Connor also picks Mariscal, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Mariscal is one of the most fluidly offensively minded fighters and that Sabatini needs to dominate and stop the fight from happening, which he can't do against Mariscal. He thinks Mariscal's style is a nightmare for Sabatini.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently -130? Connor says 'I agreed'.
"I agreed."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel sees this as a close fight and picks the underdog Mariscal to win again. He notes that Sabatini's chin is suspect and Mariscal's judo and wild style could keep the fight standing, where Sabatini is vulnerable. He expects a back-and-forth scrap that could end in a knockout for Mariscal.

"I'm going to take the underdog chep Marisk to beat Pat Sabatini for a second time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Lucrative James picks Pat Sabatini to win, believing his elite grappling and top control will be too much for Mariscal. He notes Sabatini's improved control since their first fight and Mariscal's tendency to be taken down. He expects Sabatini to secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision.

"I'm picking Patrick Sabatini to get his revenge and win this fight as the underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal makes it look more dominant than their first fight. He scrambles and stays ahead of Sabatini, then overwhelms him on the feet leading to a TKO victory.

TKO victory
"I expect him to make it look more dominant while he scrambles and stays ahead of the game with Sabatini and then eventually overwhelms Sabatini on the feet leading to a TKO victory for Jeep Mariscal."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul leans towards Mariscal, noting that he is a better striker and has knockout power. He points out that Sabatini has been knocked out when he tries to strike. Paul thinks Mariscal could win by knockout if he keeps the fight standing. However, he acknowledges the risk of Sabatini's grappling and is not fully committed.

Chepe by knockout (suggested at +370)
"Chepe by knockout if you get a good price on it, 100% on the table."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, highlighting his pressure, volume, chin, and scrambling ability. He believes Mariscal's stocky frame will make him hard to hold down for Sabatini, who relies on control. The Guru also notes that judging trends may favor Mariscal if the fight is close. He predicts a late finish or decision win for Mariscal.

"I'm going to go with Shet Mariscal here. Um, I actually might take him by finish for once."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Zane picks Mariscal, noting that Mariscal is an excellent scrambler who never stops fighting and that Sabatini struggles to lock him down. He thinks the fight will be uncomfortable for Sabatini because Mariscal is fluid and creative in scrambles. He also notes that Mariscal has never been submitted and has a good chin.

Odds: Mariscal opened -200, currently +110? Actually, transcript says 'Marasco is an underdog mind open a minus 200 currently plus one 10' but then '17, you the favorite, but a plus one 70 currently minus one 30' - likely confusion. Based on context, Mariscal is favorite at -130. Zane says 'I don't understand that at all' about the odds.
"I still think it's going to be a fight that it's just fundamentally uncomfortable for Sabatini because it's very difficult to lock Chepe Marasco down and keep him out of the fight."
WIN vs Ricardo Ramos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ricardo Ramos 0 37 of 91 40% 37 of 91 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:28
Chepe Mariscal 0 85 of 162 52% 125 of 210 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ricardo Ramos 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Chepe Mariscal 0 28 of 49 57% 42 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:55
2 Ricardo Ramos 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chepe Mariscal 0 42 of 67 62% 49 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
3 Ricardo Ramos 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Chepe Mariscal 0 15 of 46 32% 34 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ricardo Ramos 37 of 91 40% 17 of 63 14 of 18 6 of 10 32 of 84 5 of 7 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 85 of 162 52% 59 of 122 9 of 14 17 of 26 64 of 132 14 of 19 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ricardo Ramos 15 of 28 53% 7 of 19 5 of 5 3 of 4 13 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 28 of 49 57% 24 of 43 1 of 2 3 of 4 13 of 29 8 of 9 7 of 11
2 Ricardo Ramos 8 of 24 33% 5 of 18 3 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 42 of 67 62% 29 of 52 3 of 3 10 of 12 38 of 63 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Ricardo Ramos 14 of 39 35% 5 of 26 6 of 7 3 of 6 13 of 37 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chepe Mariscal 15 of 46 32% 6 of 27 5 of 9 4 of 10 13 of 40 2 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal confidently, highlighting his relentless pressure, cardio, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Mariscal is not amazing at anything but his pace and forward movement wear opponents down. He sees the only path to victory for Ricardo Ramos as a slick submission, but believes Mariscal is too much of a dog to get caught.

"chpe should win this fight I think he's reasonably priced atus 400 he may be minus 360 on some sports books but he's about a three and a half or a 4 to one favorite here and I think that …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Big Brady picks Chepe Mariscal, noting his heart, cardio, and durability. He criticizes Ricardo Ramos for lacking heart, cardio, and durability, and expects Mariscal to break him. He predicts a third-round TKO finish.

Mariscal by TKO round 3
"I like Chepe here... I think he's going to cook Ricardo Ramos I think he's going to break him and I think he's going to finish him in the third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The host agrees with the public betting love for Mariscal, citing his high pace and superior overall grappling (wrestling and BJJ). He expects Mariscal to shut down Ramos's game, overwhelm him, and win on the scorecards.

public betting and parlaying him
"mariscal Tak taking a ton of love from the public in terms of betting and parlaying him and I have to agree I think he sets too high of a pace and has way a much Superior overall grappling game …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The Guru picks Chepe Mariscal over Ricardo Ramos. He praises Mariscal's consistency, pace, chin, and ability to win scrambles. He criticizes Ramos as inconsistent and notes Mariscal is undefeated in the UFC. He predicts a finish, specifically a second or third round TKO.

"I'm going with Shep mariscal to win this fight... probably by finish... second or third round TKO for sheet mariscal."
WIN vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 32 of 49 65% 49 of 72 1 of 5 20% 0 1 4:18
Damon Jackson 0 73 of 100 73% 218 of 267 5 of 7 71% 0 2 8:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 18 of 27 66% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:37
Damon Jackson 0 25 of 37 67% 53 of 69 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:05
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 8 of 12 66% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Damon Jackson 0 29 of 38 76% 94 of 114 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:30
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 6 of 10 60% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
Damon Jackson 0 19 of 25 76% 71 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 2 2:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 32 of 49 65% 5 of 16 26 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 15 27 of 34 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 73 of 100 73% 59 of 86 13 of 13 1 of 1 8 of 18 17 of 21 48 of 61
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 18 of 27 66% 3 of 10 15 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 8 15 of 19 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 25 of 37 67% 16 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 9 11 of 14 11 of 14
2 Chepe Mariscal 8 of 12 66% 0 of 2 7 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 29 of 38 76% 26 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 31
3 Chepe Mariscal 6 of 10 60% 2 of 4 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 5 5 of 5 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 19 of 25 76% 17 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he is the more well-rounded fighter with BJJ, kickboxing, and wrestling credentials, and is a dog who won't break. However, he is hesitant because Chepe is a favorite for the first time, his wins have been close, and Damon Jackson with a new hair transplant has been the best version of himself. He warns not to overexpose on Chepe.

Be careful; do not overly expose
"chpe is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody picks Mariscal because he is more durable, has a cast iron chin, judo black belt, trains at altitude with top fighters, and has good takedown defense. He notes Jackson needs to finish early and tends to gas, while Mariscal's forward pressure and volume will wear him down. Cody suggests a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal round three finish (plus 1000)
"chpe Marisol for my money's worth is just the more durable guy I mean when you look at Damon Jackson his best success is when he's able to get these guys down early submit them early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal has a high work rate, good scrambling, and cardio that should overwhelm Jackson as the fight goes on. Jackson is dangerous early with submissions, but if he doesn't finish, Mariscal will take over in rounds two and three. The prediction is Mariscal by decision, with a possible third-round finish.

Mariscal by decision; possible third-round finish
"Jackson will have success early here but given the scrambling ability and just constant work rate of mariscal I think we're going to see Jackson really start to slow down and later on in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, highlighting Mariscal's activity, striking with ill intent, and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Jackson's history of gassing and that Mariscal has the dog in him. Paul also jokes about Jackson's new hair plugs giving him confidence.

"Maris skull's just the more active fighter more busy on the feet lands with a little bit more ill intent the risk of getting taken down controlled is there but we know he's going to be fighting tooth and nail …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The MMA Guru picks Chepe Mariscal, comparing him to a slightly worse Dan Ige. He highlights Mariscal's scrambling ability, pressure, and striking advantage over Damon Jackson. He notes Jackson's grappling threat but believes Mariscal's 'ball of muscle' physique and urgency in scrambles will neutralize it. He also jokes about hairline envy affecting Jackson.

"I'm gonna go with shet mariscal over Damon Jackson... I just think he's levels above him on the feet and he'll keep scrambling with him"
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 49 of 104 47% 75 of 139 2 of 5 40% 1 1 3:42
Morgan Charrière 0 71 of 137 51% 121 of 199 1 of 8 12% 0 1 3:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 10 of 24 41% 19 of 37 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:57
Morgan Charrière 0 16 of 29 55% 25 of 44 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:30
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 33 of 61 54% 35 of 63 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:24
Morgan Charrière 0 32 of 67 47% 32 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 6 of 19 31% 21 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Morgan Charrière 0 23 of 41 56% 64 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 49 of 104 47% 30 of 83 16 of 17 3 of 4 45 of 98 4 of 6 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 71 of 137 51% 42 of 94 10 of 19 19 of 24 50 of 110 12 of 17 9 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 10 of 24 41% 7 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 19 3 of 5 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 16 of 29 55% 5 of 14 2 of 5 9 of 10 7 of 16 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Chepe Mariscal 33 of 61 54% 20 of 48 11 of 11 2 of 2 32 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 32 of 67 47% 19 of 46 5 of 10 8 of 11 29 of 63 3 of 3 0 of 1
3 Chepe Mariscal 6 of 19 31% 3 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Morgan Charrière 23 of 41 56% 18 of 34 3 of 4 2 of 3 14 of 31 0 of 1 9 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal because he has been an underdog in all three UFC fights and is 2-0, showing he is tough, can pressure, and wrestle. He believes Chepe will make the fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière. Angelo notes that Chepe is currently a +145 dog and expects the line to move, so he plans to bet on Chepe soon. He mentions Chepe's BJJ championship, kickboxing credentials, and collegiate wrestling as reasons for his confidence.

Angelo plans to bet on Chepe at +145, watching line movement; expects Chepe to become favorite
"I like Chepe to make this fight ugly and grind out Morgan Charrière"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady picks Morgan Charrière to win by decision. He notes that Charrière is good everywhere, a really good striker and wrestler with vicious ground and pound. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and has the dog in him, but thinks Charrière has more ways to win and will be slightly better wherever the fight goes. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes to a split decision.

"I'll take sh for the win but I think the line is about accurate probably probably should be about to pick him here Sher decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Chepe has fought tougher competition outside the UFC, including Gregor Gillespie and Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Chepe's constant work rate, durability, and takedown game. Cody thinks Charrière's low output and tendency to fight close decisions make him a bad favorite, and that Chepe's pressure will earn him the win.

"I agree with you on all the takes there... he'll be the pick for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Daniel Vreeland picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his toughness and Judo background. He notes Morgan Charrière is more athletic and powerful but has low output and close decisions against lesser competition. Vreeland points out Mariscal's win over Jack Jenkins was dominant, not a fluke injury, and his regional wins over UFC-level fighters like Yousef Zalal and Pat Sabatini. He expects a close fight but favors Mariscal's forward pressure and willingness to exchange.

"I'm going to pick Chepe here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Mariscal is more battle-tested with higher output and volume. Charrière is more hype than talent, with cardio issues and a low pace. Mariscal can mix in grappling and striking, and his durability has held up. He should outwork Charrière and win by decision, with a possible late stoppage.

Mariscal by decision; sprinkle Mariscal round 3 at +2200
"I'm going to go marcow and marcow by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul is confident in Chepe Mariscal at plus money. He criticizes Charrière's low-volume, counter-heavy style and notes his record is full of split decisions. Chepe is aggressive, has good durability, cardio from training at altitude, and mixes in takedowns. Paul believes Chepe's constant work rate will overwhelm Charrière, especially in the Apex where judges favor damage and volume.

"I'm like in chpe I got some plus money plays on him already... if you're going to give me plus money on chpe mariscal I think he's got just the volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The host expresses personal dislike for Charrière due to UFC signing him over Paul Hughes and Jordan Vucenic, but acknowledges Charrière is good. He notes Charrière's power, dangerous striking, great kicks, finishing instincts, and strong takedown defense. He predicts Charrière will smoke Mariscal by TKO, despite Mariscal's scrappy win over Trevor Peek.

TKO win predicted
"I think he'll smoke shet mariscal so I'm going to go with him by TKO"
WIN vs Jack Jenkins
TKO (arm injury) R2 3:19 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 41 of 68 60% 43 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Jenkins 0 38 of 87 43% 87 of 143 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 31 of 50 62% 33 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jack Jenkins 0 23 of 60 38% 38 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 10 of 18 55% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Jenkins 0 15 of 27 55% 49 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 41 of 68 60% 16 of 36 13 of 18 12 of 14 35 of 60 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jack Jenkins 38 of 87 43% 14 of 53 11 of 16 13 of 18 23 of 65 14 of 21 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 31 of 50 62% 14 of 27 7 of 11 10 of 12 29 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Jenkins 23 of 60 38% 10 of 41 8 of 11 5 of 8 18 of 52 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Chepe Mariscal 10 of 18 55% 2 of 9 6 of 7 2 of 2 6 of 13 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jack Jenkins 15 of 27 55% 4 of 12 3 of 5 8 of 10 5 of 13 9 of 13 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo picks Jack Jenkins, citing his lethal leg kicks as the difference. He notes that Chepe Mariscal is a two-to-one underdog with great wrestling and striking, but Jack's leg kicks will take away Chepe's movement and takedown ability. Angelo has parlayed Jack Jenkins with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money.

Parlayed with Nasrat Haqparast at plus money
"I think Jack Jenkins leg kicks which are lethal and he has stopped multiple fights with them are going to be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins, citing his technical striking and wrestling. He notes a red flag from Mariscal's fight with Sean Soriano, where Soriano outgrappled him. He thinks Jenkins can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win.

"I think Jack Jenkins gets it done and I think Jack Jenkins gets it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody picks Jenkins, citing his superior wrestling, leg kicks, and technical striking. He notes that Mariscal's takedown defense is not yet developed and that Jenkins can exploit that. Cody expects Jenkins to win by decision, possibly a close one, and likes the Jenkins by decision prop.

Jenkins by decision (+160)
"I think Jenkins pulls away in this fight great fight fun fight I think he gets fight of the night but I think Jack Jenkins is just a little more Superior"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Daniel Levi picks Jack Jenkins confidently, highlighting his leg kicks that have broken three opponents' tibias. He also praises Jenkins' defensive responsibility, fight IQ, and ability to mix in takedowns. Levi believes Mariscal's brawling style will leave openings for Jenkins to land his shots. He expects Jenkins to take over in the second and third rounds, potentially getting a knockout or a decision.

Odds mentioned: Jenkins minus 200, Mariscal plus 170.
"I think that Jack Jenkins is just so much more technically sound so much more defensively responsible."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Jenkins is athletic, fast, with great wrestling and relentless calf kicking that destroys opponents' movement. He blends striking and wrestling well. Mariscal is a short-notice call-up who showed good wrestling but may have durability issues. Jenkins has physical advantages and should win by decision, with a small sprinkle on a KO prop due to Mariscal's potential chin issues.

small sprinkle on KO prop
"give me Jenkins and Jenkins by decision small sprinkle on a potential KO prop here in case mariscal's chin uh is still as flimsy as I believe it could be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul picks Jenkins but is leaning, noting that Jenkins should lean on his wrestling and make it ugly. He acknowledges that Mariscal is tough and durable, but believes Jenkins' wrestling and striking will be the difference. Paul sees this as a potential fight of the night.

"Jenkins will be the pick for I I imagine lean on the wrestling a little bit wear them down make it a little bit uh ugly don't turn it into a slobber knocker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Chepe Mariscal, calling it a no-brainer. He notes that Jenkins is an extremely technical striker with a tight guard, while Mariscal is less technical. He acknowledges Mariscal's win over Trevor Peek but points out that Peek is a sloppy fighter. Jenkins has a close decision loss to Jamal Emmers but is active, having fought twice this year. He predicts Jenkins will win a competitive 29-28 decision, possibly losing the third round.

"I'm gonna go Jack Jenkins"
WIN vs Trevor Peek
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 51 of 125 40% 65 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:23
Trevor Peek 0 71 of 117 60% 145 of 203 4 of 12 33% 1 1 5:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 24 of 59 40% 29 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Trevor Peek 0 26 of 51 50% 45 of 71 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:49
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 13 of 22 59% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:52
Trevor Peek 0 12 of 17 70% 44 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 1 2:33
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 14 of 44 31% 20 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Trevor Peek 0 33 of 49 67% 56 of 78 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 51 of 125 40% 25 of 91 23 of 31 3 of 3 39 of 105 12 of 20 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 71 of 117 60% 51 of 94 11 of 14 9 of 9 41 of 78 20 of 23 10 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 24 of 59 40% 14 of 45 8 of 12 2 of 2 19 of 50 5 of 9 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 26 of 51 50% 18 of 41 4 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 32 7 of 8 7 of 11
2 Chepe Mariscal 13 of 22 59% 6 of 12 7 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 12 7 of 10 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 12 of 17 70% 6 of 11 4 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 6 3 of 5
3 Chepe Mariscal 14 of 44 31% 5 of 34 8 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 33 of 49 67% 27 of 42 3 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 40 8 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his superior experience and skills. He notes Chepe is a fantastic grappler who can duck under Trevor Peek's chaos and get takedowns. He mentions the line has moved from +170 to +155 and he has a quarter unit on Chepe at +155. He also strongly recommends the 'does not go the distance' prop as a safer bet.

does not go the distance; quarter unit on Chepe at +155
"I'm gonna pick chepe to win here he's got more experience more actual skills"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Big Brady picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging that Mariscal is probably the better fighter with tougher competition. He compares it to the Torres-Moda fight where the better striker lost to a big shot. He trusts Peek's chin and toughness, noting Peek took a beating on the Contender Series and came back to finish. He also notes Mariscal is moving up a weight class on short notice. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I like Trevor Peak here and I like Trevor Peak to make this an absolute war and knock out mariscal in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody picks Peek, citing his durability and power. He thinks Peek's pressure will eventually overwhelm Mariscal, who has questionable durability. He notes Peek's size advantage and the rumor of a quick turnaround if he wins.

Peek by KO mentioned.
"I think at some point the dog's gonna come out of peak peek's gonna land something put him away."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Connor picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging he is a terrible technician. He loves Peek's insane confidence and recklessness, which makes him effective. Connor notes that Peek is a great athlete with fast and powerful strikes, and his chaotic style overwhelms opponents. He thinks Mariscal is not technical enough to cross that confidence and will get drawn into a messy brawl. Connor admits he will keep picking Peek until and probably after he loses because he enjoys watching him fight.

"I'm going to keep picking Trevor Peak until and probably after he loses because I just love it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel Levi picks Trevor Peek, citing his physicality, power, and ability to take a shot. He thinks Mariscal is smaller and has been knocked out before. He believes Peek's brute strength and fight-changing power will be too much, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Peek's improved training after quitting his job.

"I think Trevor's gonna catch him um at some point in this fight so let's go Trevor"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The host picks Chepe Mariscal to win, possibly by finish. He believes Mariscal is more experienced and talented overall, with a solid grappling and striking game. He notes Peek's brawling style and durability but thinks Mariscal can take advantage of Peek's aggression. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop, but is cautious about Mariscal's durability.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me Jose chepe mariscal to pull off the upset here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul leans towards Mariscal, citing his technical kickboxing and speed. He thinks Mariscal can outpoint Peek and avoid his power. He acknowledges Peek's toughness but believes Mariscal's technique will prevail.

Fight of the Night considered.
"I'll lean towards chapter mariscal mostly just to trigger you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

The Guru picks Trevor Peek, calling him the 'Derek Lewis of the lightweight division' with good get-ups from takedowns and dangerous first-round power. He believes Mariscal, making his UFC debut on short notice, may have octagon jitters and get smoked. He predicts Peek will march forward, get up from takedowns, and finish with a standing hammerfist.

Predicts standing hammerfist KO in the first round.
"I'm going to be going with Trevor Peak here I'm going with the standing hammerfist KO in the first round let's keep the meme alive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Zane picks Mariscal, reasoning that while Peek is fun to watch, his technique is terrible and he is a bad fighter. Zane notes that Mariscal has more technique and is always on the borderline of throwing it all away to brawl, but that inconsistency is a problem. However, Zane thinks Mariscal's ability to be a messy scrapper who can overwhelm opponents gives him the edge. He acknowledges that Peek's confidence and athleticism make him dangerous, but ultimately believes Mariscal's slightly better technique will prevail.

"I don't think that that serves him better. You know, not knowing or not being able to have the kind of fight you want. Is against somebody like Trevor Peak. That just gives me more pause about your ability to …"
Trevor Peek - Fight History
LOSS vs Yanal Ashmouz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yanal Ashmouz 0 55 of 107 51% 63 of 115 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Trevor Peek 0 42 of 66 63% 85 of 124 9 of 18 50% 0 0 8:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yanal Ashmouz 0 16 of 33 48% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Trevor Peek 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 23 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:29
2 Yanal Ashmouz 0 22 of 33 66% 23 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Trevor Peek 0 10 of 16 62% 36 of 48 6 of 9 66% 0 0 2:41
3 Yanal Ashmouz 0 17 of 41 41% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Trevor Peek 0 28 of 39 71% 37 of 53 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yanal Ashmouz 55 of 107 51% 29 of 78 18 of 21 8 of 8 48 of 99 7 of 8 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 42 of 66 63% 26 of 48 9 of 11 7 of 7 19 of 41 18 of 20 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yanal Ashmouz 16 of 33 48% 6 of 21 4 of 6 6 of 6 15 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 4 of 11 36% 4 of 9 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yanal Ashmouz 22 of 33 66% 11 of 21 9 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 10 of 16 62% 7 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 6 of 6 0 of 0
3 Yanal Ashmouz 17 of 41 41% 12 of 36 5 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 28 of 39 71% 15 of 26 7 of 7 6 of 6 12 of 23 11 of 11 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Angelo picks Yanal Ashmouz because he is the better fighter skill-for-skill, with technique everywhere, but he is hesitant because Trevor Peek is incredibly durable and has insane pressure. He notes that Yanal is still a dog and he has a bet on him, but he has buyer's remorse after watching Peek's toughness. He hopes Yanal doesn't break.

Angelo mentions he has a bet on Yanal Ashmouz as a dog.
"I am ultimately going to pick the better fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Big Brady picks Yanal Ashmouz as the underdog but says he wants nothing to do with betting on this fight. He describes it as a chaotic, back-and-forth war that likely goes to decision, with both guys having moments. Brady likes Ashmouz's ability to land big shots and mix in takedowns, but admits the fight could go either way.

"I'm actually going to take oshmo to win here just because I don't know you know Peak"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody echoes Paul's sentiment, praising Peek's chin, heart, and relentless pressure. He notes Ashmouz's lack of grappling and tendency to get taken down, while Peek's wrestling has improved. He expects Peek to walk through Ashmouz's strikes and land a knockout.

Trevor Peek by KO
"sign me up for Peak baby"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel is a fan of Trevor Peek's fighting style and believes Ashmouz is KO-or-bust. He criticizes Ashmouz's low volume and reliance on one big shot, and thinks Peek can outwork him to a decision or catch him. He notes that Ashmouz struggled when he couldn't get the knockout against Chris Duncan. Daniel sees multiple paths to victory for Peek.

"I really think ashm is KO or bust in this spot and I think that Trevor Peak has multiple pass to Victory... I'm going Trevor Peak to outwork yanal ashm and get this dub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Peek is durable, aggressive, and has never been finished. Ashmouz hits hard but may struggle to keep the fight at range. In a pocket exchange, Peek's power and chin could prevail. However, the host prefers to watch rather than bet heavily, as this fight reveals ceilings for both.

Trevor Peek by knockout
"I'm going to lean Peak here Peak by knockout but I'd rather sit back and watch this on the sidelines."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Paul is a fan of Peek's style and believes his durability, pressure, and power will overwhelm Ashmouz, who is more technical but lacks grappling and has shown vulnerability to pressure. He notes Ashmouz's poor takedown defense and tendency to fade. He picks Peek by KO.

Trevor Peek by KO
"give me TR Peak by KO and yeah this is actually just like greediness and toughness overcoming a slight speed and Technical Advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

The MMA Guru picks Yanal Ashmouz over Trevor Peek. He praises Ashmouz's power and notes he fought Chris Duncan with a broken arm and still went to a decision. He believes Peek is too hittable and that Ashmouz is primed to land big KO blows. He predicts a TKO win for Ashmouz, though he admits he will be rooting for Peek.

TKO prediction
"I'm going to go with Yan Al ASAS getting this one done probably by TKO"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charlie Campbell 0 47 of 97 48% 62 of 118 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:15
Trevor Peek 0 54 of 100 54% 100 of 153 4 of 10 40% 0 1 5:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charlie Campbell 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:05
Trevor Peek 0 27 of 50 54% 43 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
2 Charlie Campbell 0 24 of 45 53% 33 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Trevor Peek 0 24 of 39 61% 35 of 53 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:49
3 Charlie Campbell 0 4 of 11 36% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Trevor Peek 0 3 of 11 27% 22 of 34 2 of 4 50% 0 1 3:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charlie Campbell 47 of 97 48% 32 of 77 6 of 11 9 of 9 34 of 81 10 of 11 3 of 5
Trevor Peek 54 of 100 54% 20 of 50 18 of 29 16 of 21 40 of 80 13 of 18 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charlie Campbell 19 of 41 46% 10 of 28 2 of 6 7 of 7 17 of 38 1 of 1 1 of 2
Trevor Peek 27 of 50 54% 7 of 21 9 of 13 11 of 16 22 of 44 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Charlie Campbell 24 of 45 53% 18 of 38 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 33 8 of 9 2 of 3
Trevor Peek 24 of 39 61% 11 of 20 9 of 15 4 of 4 16 of 29 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Charlie Campbell 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 3 of 11 27% 2 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 2 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Angelo picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging that Charlie Campbell is the more skilled technical fighter. He believes Peek's granite chin, high pressure, and chaotic style make him very difficult to beat. He says that Campbell cannot out-technique Peek because Peek is so crazy and in your face. Angelo notes that Peek is a 2-to-1 underdog and that based on skills alone he should be a 10-to-1 underdog, but with Peek's chin and aggression, it's a pick 'em fight. He picks the dog.

Angelo suggests 'inside the distance - no action' bet because finishing Peek is almost impossible; he may bet moneyline if line moves further
"Trevor Peak is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Big Brady picks Trevor Peek with no confidence, acknowledging a huge skill deficit. He notes that Campbell is the much better mixed martial artist, but Peek makes up for it with heart, durability, and toughness. He worries that Campbell may beat Peek up early but fail to finish, allowing Peek to come back and find a finish in the second round, similar to Peek's previous fights.

win by second round KO
"I'm going to pick Peak with like no confidence... I think Peak starts to to get it together and maybe find a finish in that second round so I'll take Trevor Peak to win this fight by second round KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody is confident in Peek, noting his dog mentality and ability to overcome adversity. He points out Campbell's tendency to fight in the pocket and his high chin, which plays into Peek's power. Cody also highlights Peek's training at altitude with Justin Gaethje and Cory Sandhagen, which should improve his cardio. He predicts a Peek knockout, especially in the small Apex cage.

by KO
"Trevor Peak knockout one... let's get it Trevor ever Peak fight week baby"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel Vreeland picks Trevor Peek despite admitting bias, as he loves Peek's brawling style. He acknowledges Charlie Campbell is more technical and will likely win round one, but believes Peek can take over late if Campbell doesn't finish early. Vreeland notes Campbell is green and has been knocked out by lesser athletes like Chris Duncan, and expects Peek to rough him up against the fence and test his heart in deep waters.

"I'm going to go Trevor Peek to take over late."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

Campbell is the technically better striker with good range management and patience. He learned from his loss to Duncan and now lets knockouts come to him. Peek has an iron chin and forward pressure, but Campbell can pot-shot him from distance. The fight likely goes to decision, but Campbell should outland him.

Campbell by decision; fight starts round two
"I am going to lean with Campbell in this matchup I think he's the technically better and Slicker fighter here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Paul picks Trevor Peek as a dog, citing his durability, pressure, and power. He notes Campbell has a reach advantage but fights with his head high and has been knocked out by Chris Duncan after dominating. Paul thinks Peek's ability to take a punch and return fire will be key, and that Peek's training camp at altitude with top guys will improve his cardio. He expects a Peek knockout.

by KO
"Trevor Peak is that dog... if this is 50/50 or Trevor Peak is the favorite you might be reconsidering it but a plasman this is a do pass all day"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Charlie Campbell

The host praises Campbell's crispy boxing, footwork, and patience. He notes Campbell learned from getting KO'd by Chris Duncan after dominating early. He predicts Campbell will use his reach advantage, find a shot to wobble Peek, and finish with crisp one-twos. He expects a TKO win.

TKO win predicted
"I'm GNA go Charlie Campbell I know Alex Reyes isn't that good but I urge you guys to watch that fight he had really good striking accuracy"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trevor Peek 0 43 of 92 46% 47 of 96 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Mohammad Yahya 0 61 of 97 62% 83 of 123 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trevor Peek 0 8 of 13 61% 12 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:18
Mohammad Yahya 0 16 of 25 64% 25 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:13
2 Trevor Peek 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammad Yahya 0 23 of 39 58% 23 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
3 Trevor Peek 0 14 of 33 42% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Mohammad Yahya 0 22 of 33 66% 35 of 50 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trevor Peek 43 of 92 46% 28 of 70 14 of 21 1 of 1 41 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 61 of 97 62% 32 of 61 16 of 23 13 of 13 50 of 83 6 of 9 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trevor Peek 8 of 13 61% 5 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 16 of 25 64% 6 of 13 4 of 6 6 of 6 13 of 20 1 of 3 2 of 2
2 Trevor Peek 21 of 46 45% 16 of 35 5 of 11 0 of 0 20 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 23 of 39 58% 12 of 26 6 of 8 5 of 5 21 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Trevor Peek 14 of 33 42% 7 of 25 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mohammad Yahya 22 of 33 66% 14 of 22 6 of 9 2 of 2 16 of 27 3 of 3 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Angelo picks Trevor Peek after initially wanting to bet on Yahya. He notes Yahya gets hit too often and doesn't wrestle well, while Peek has a granite chin and relentless pressure. He thinks Peek's toughness and forward pressure will be enough to win, even though Peek is not very skilled.

"Trevor peak's going to be the pick he has had the biggest line movement on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Big Brady picks Trevor Peek to win by first round knockout. He describes Peek as a wild, durable brawler with incredible toughness and cardio, while Yahya is just okay and has been finished in all three of his losses. Brady expects Peek to set a pace Yahya cannot handle and win a chaotic brawl. He also likes the prop of Peek over 77.5 fantasy score on PrizePicks.

first round knockout, over 77.5 fantasy score
"give me Trevor Peak to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody picks Peek, emphasizing his toughness and power. He notes that Yahya is a one-dimensional striker with no grappling, and that Peek's pressure will eventually land. Cody expects a KO, possibly in the second round after Yahya tires.

Peek by KO, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm in on Peak too he's my boy I'm not going to go against my boy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel picks Trevor Peek to win, describing him as an elite brawler with durability and power. He notes that Mohammad Yahya has been dropped by lower-level competition and thinks Peek's firepower will be too much. He acknowledges that Peek can fade and is not technically sound, but believes Peek's durability and brawling style will prevail. He also mentions the possibility of hometown judging but thinks a finish would negate that.

Peek minus 155, Yahya plus 130; mentions possibility of Peek fading but still winning
"I think Trevor peak's gonna win this fight... I think that the durability of Trevor Peak is GNA be a big difference here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Yahya is hittable and leaves his chin on the center line, which plays into Peek's power. Peek is durable and has better grappling defense than expected. Expects Peek to land big shots and find a knockout within the first two rounds. However, he feels queasy playing Peek at short odds due to his skill shortage.

inside the distance, round 1 or 2
"I feel like Peak is going to go out there and and find that chin probably within the first two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Paul picks Peek, noting that Yahya is a local fighter with limited skills and poor grappling. He believes Peek's pressure, durability, and power will overwhelm Yahya, who has a weak chin and no plan B. Paul expects a KO finish, likely in the first two rounds.

Peek by KO (+120), under 1.5 rounds
"I also think Trevor Peek could take him down the thing is is I don't think Trevor Peek has got great top control yet so like even though he can get takedowns they're mostly muscle"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

The MMA Guru picks Trevor Peek by first-round KO. He was initially leaning towards Yahya but was unimpressed by Yahya's regional fight where he was dropped and outgrappled. He trusts Peek's chin and believes the fight will be a sloppy brawl that favors Peek. He notes Peek has good takedown defense and Yahya's grappling isn't good enough to win.

Peek wins in round 1 by KO
"I'm going Trevor Peak by KO so I'm going to go by I'm going to go Trevor Peak their Rens in odds and I'm going to take him by KO here in the first round over Muhammad Yaya"
LOSS vs Chepe Mariscal
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chepe Mariscal 0 51 of 125 40% 65 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:23
Trevor Peek 0 71 of 117 60% 145 of 203 4 of 12 33% 1 1 5:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chepe Mariscal 0 24 of 59 40% 29 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Trevor Peek 0 26 of 51 50% 45 of 71 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:49
2 Chepe Mariscal 0 13 of 22 59% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:52
Trevor Peek 0 12 of 17 70% 44 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 1 2:33
3 Chepe Mariscal 0 14 of 44 31% 20 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Trevor Peek 0 33 of 49 67% 56 of 78 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chepe Mariscal 51 of 125 40% 25 of 91 23 of 31 3 of 3 39 of 105 12 of 20 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 71 of 117 60% 51 of 94 11 of 14 9 of 9 41 of 78 20 of 23 10 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chepe Mariscal 24 of 59 40% 14 of 45 8 of 12 2 of 2 19 of 50 5 of 9 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 26 of 51 50% 18 of 41 4 of 6 4 of 4 12 of 32 7 of 8 7 of 11
2 Chepe Mariscal 13 of 22 59% 6 of 12 7 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 12 7 of 10 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 12 of 17 70% 6 of 11 4 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 6 3 of 5
3 Chepe Mariscal 14 of 44 31% 5 of 34 8 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Trevor Peek 33 of 49 67% 27 of 42 3 of 4 3 of 3 25 of 40 8 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his superior experience and skills. He notes Chepe is a fantastic grappler who can duck under Trevor Peek's chaos and get takedowns. He mentions the line has moved from +170 to +155 and he has a quarter unit on Chepe at +155. He also strongly recommends the 'does not go the distance' prop as a safer bet.

does not go the distance; quarter unit on Chepe at +155
"I'm gonna pick chepe to win here he's got more experience more actual skills"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Big Brady picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging that Mariscal is probably the better fighter with tougher competition. He compares it to the Torres-Moda fight where the better striker lost to a big shot. He trusts Peek's chin and toughness, noting Peek took a beating on the Contender Series and came back to finish. He also notes Mariscal is moving up a weight class on short notice. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I like Trevor Peak here and I like Trevor Peak to make this an absolute war and knock out mariscal in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody picks Peek, citing his durability and power. He thinks Peek's pressure will eventually overwhelm Mariscal, who has questionable durability. He notes Peek's size advantage and the rumor of a quick turnaround if he wins.

Peek by KO mentioned.
"I think at some point the dog's gonna come out of peak peek's gonna land something put him away."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Connor picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging he is a terrible technician. He loves Peek's insane confidence and recklessness, which makes him effective. Connor notes that Peek is a great athlete with fast and powerful strikes, and his chaotic style overwhelms opponents. He thinks Mariscal is not technical enough to cross that confidence and will get drawn into a messy brawl. Connor admits he will keep picking Peek until and probably after he loses because he enjoys watching him fight.

"I'm going to keep picking Trevor Peak until and probably after he loses because I just love it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel Levi picks Trevor Peek, citing his physicality, power, and ability to take a shot. He thinks Mariscal is smaller and has been knocked out before. He believes Peek's brute strength and fight-changing power will be too much, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Peek's improved training after quitting his job.

"I think Trevor's gonna catch him um at some point in this fight so let's go Trevor"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The host picks Chepe Mariscal to win, possibly by finish. He believes Mariscal is more experienced and talented overall, with a solid grappling and striking game. He notes Peek's brawling style and durability but thinks Mariscal can take advantage of Peek's aggression. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop, but is cautious about Mariscal's durability.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me Jose chepe mariscal to pull off the upset here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul leans towards Mariscal, citing his technical kickboxing and speed. He thinks Mariscal can outpoint Peek and avoid his power. He acknowledges Peek's toughness but believes Mariscal's technique will prevail.

Fight of the Night considered.
"I'll lean towards chapter mariscal mostly just to trigger you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

The Guru picks Trevor Peek, calling him the 'Derek Lewis of the lightweight division' with good get-ups from takedowns and dangerous first-round power. He believes Mariscal, making his UFC debut on short notice, may have octagon jitters and get smoked. He predicts Peek will march forward, get up from takedowns, and finish with a standing hammerfist.

Predicts standing hammerfist KO in the first round.
"I'm going to be going with Trevor Peak here I'm going with the standing hammerfist KO in the first round let's keep the meme alive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Zane picks Mariscal, reasoning that while Peek is fun to watch, his technique is terrible and he is a bad fighter. Zane notes that Mariscal has more technique and is always on the borderline of throwing it all away to brawl, but that inconsistency is a problem. However, Zane thinks Mariscal's ability to be a messy scrapper who can overwhelm opponents gives him the edge. He acknowledges that Peek's confidence and athleticism make him dangerous, but ultimately believes Mariscal's slightly better technique will prevail.

"I don't think that that serves him better. You know, not knowing or not being able to have the kind of fight you want. Is against somebody like Trevor Peak. That just gives me more pause about your ability to …"
KO (punches) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Trevor Peek 0 7 of 29 24% 11 of 35 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:15
Erick Gonzalez 2 51 of 86 59% 51 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Trevor Peek 0 7 of 29 24% 11 of 35 4 of 6 66% 0 0 2:15
Erick Gonzalez 2 51 of 86 59% 51 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Trevor Peek 7 of 29 24% 5 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Erick Gonzalez 51 of 86 59% 38 of 70 8 of 11 5 of 5 36 of 67 9 of 12 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Trevor Peek 7 of 29 24% 5 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Erick Gonzalez 51 of 86 59% 38 of 70 8 of 11 5 of 5 36 of 67 9 of 12 6 of 7
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erick Gonzalez

Connor picks Gonzalez, noting that he has a five-inch reach advantage and should be able to stick at range with jabs and kicks. He acknowledges that Gonzalez doesn't maintain range well and gets into the pocket, but he believes Gonzalez is trying to be a good fighter and has better structure than Peek. Connor also points out that Gonzalez's early career losses were not by knockout, which is a good sign for his durability here.

Peek opened at -200, dropped to -172, now -199. Gonzalez opened +170, dropped to +144, now +164.
"I'll take guns all us to get this one I think you know generally for him the fighters who beat him are pretty good they're not complete messes most of the time"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Zane picks Peek because Gonzalez is made of glass and his style pushes him forward into the pocket, where Peek can land. He notes that Gonzalez is uncomfortable at range and gets clipped, while Peek is a messy brawler who will storm the castle. Zane admits Peek could get knocked out in the process, but he picks him to get the knockout.

Peek opened at -200, dropped to -172, now -199. Gonzalez opened +170, dropped to +144, now +164.
"I'm gonna pick him really yeah he's a messy brawler and Eric Gonzalez certainly has something to him yeah but he is made of glass"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Angelo picks Chepe Mariscal, citing his superior experience and skills. He notes Chepe is a fantastic grappler who can duck under Trevor Peek's chaos and get takedowns. He mentions the line has moved from +170 to +155 and he has a quarter unit on Chepe at +155. He also strongly recommends the 'does not go the distance' prop as a safer bet.

does not go the distance; quarter unit on Chepe at +155
"I'm gonna pick chepe to win here he's got more experience more actual skills"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Big Brady picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging that Mariscal is probably the better fighter with tougher competition. He compares it to the Torres-Moda fight where the better striker lost to a big shot. He trusts Peek's chin and toughness, noting Peek took a beating on the Contender Series and came back to finish. He also notes Mariscal is moving up a weight class on short notice. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I like Trevor Peak here and I like Trevor Peak to make this an absolute war and knock out mariscal in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Cody picks Peek, citing his durability and power. He thinks Peek's pressure will eventually overwhelm Mariscal, who has questionable durability. He notes Peek's size advantage and the rumor of a quick turnaround if he wins.

Peek by KO mentioned.
"I think at some point the dog's gonna come out of peak peek's gonna land something put him away."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Connor picks Trevor Peek despite acknowledging he is a terrible technician. He loves Peek's insane confidence and recklessness, which makes him effective. Connor notes that Peek is a great athlete with fast and powerful strikes, and his chaotic style overwhelms opponents. He thinks Mariscal is not technical enough to cross that confidence and will get drawn into a messy brawl. Connor admits he will keep picking Peek until and probably after he loses because he enjoys watching him fight.

"I'm going to keep picking Trevor Peak until and probably after he loses because I just love it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

Daniel Levi picks Trevor Peek, citing his physicality, power, and ability to take a shot. He thinks Mariscal is smaller and has been knocked out before. He believes Peek's brute strength and fight-changing power will be too much, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Peek's improved training after quitting his job.

"I think Trevor's gonna catch him um at some point in this fight so let's go Trevor"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

The host picks Chepe Mariscal to win, possibly by finish. He believes Mariscal is more experienced and talented overall, with a solid grappling and striking game. He notes Peek's brawling style and durability but thinks Mariscal can take advantage of Peek's aggression. He suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop, but is cautious about Mariscal's durability.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me Jose chepe mariscal to pull off the upset here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Paul leans towards Mariscal, citing his technical kickboxing and speed. He thinks Mariscal can outpoint Peek and avoid his power. He acknowledges Peek's toughness but believes Mariscal's technique will prevail.

Fight of the Night considered.
"I'll lean towards chapter mariscal mostly just to trigger you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Trevor Peek

The Guru picks Trevor Peek, calling him the 'Derek Lewis of the lightweight division' with good get-ups from takedowns and dangerous first-round power. He believes Mariscal, making his UFC debut on short notice, may have octagon jitters and get smoked. He predicts Peek will march forward, get up from takedowns, and finish with a standing hammerfist.

Predicts standing hammerfist KO in the first round.
"I'm going to be going with Trevor Peak here I'm going with the standing hammerfist KO in the first round let's keep the meme alive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chepe Mariscal

Zane picks Mariscal, reasoning that while Peek is fun to watch, his technique is terrible and he is a bad fighter. Zane notes that Mariscal has more technique and is always on the borderline of throwing it all away to brawl, but that inconsistency is a problem. However, Zane thinks Mariscal's ability to be a messy scrapper who can overwhelm opponents gives him the edge. He acknowledges that Peek's confidence and athleticism make him dangerous, but ultimately believes Mariscal's slightly better technique will prevail.

"I don't think that that serves him better. You know, not knowing or not being able to have the kind of fight you want. Is against somebody like Trevor Peak. That just gives me more pause about your ability to win."