Career Averages - Loik Radzhabov
Career Averages - Esteban Ribovics
Loik Radzhabov
Esteban Ribovics
Loik Radzhabov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 0 | 42 of 86 | 48% | 97 of 157 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 116 of 148 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 2 | 0 | 9:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 40 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 22 of 49 | 44% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 41 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:05 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 62 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 35 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Ogden | 42 of 86 | 48% | 38 of 78 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 29 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 24 of 47 | 51% | 14 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 21 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trey Ogden | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Trey Ogden | 22 of 49 | 44% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 22 of 42 | 52% | 14 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Trey Ogden | 18 of 33 | 54% | 17 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 29 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Radzhabov (-115), Ogden (-105)
Round 1
After suffering the first stoppage loss in his career, Radzhabov (18-5-1, 2-1 UFC) bounced back in a big way by clubbing Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady in March. He hopes to pull another knockout rabbit out of his hat when he throws down with Marathon MMA head coach Ogden (17-6, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC). Of note, Ogden’s last victory came over Kurt Holobaugh, and yet Holobaugh will fight much higher up on this card tonight. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Herb Dean, and the lightweights touch ‘em up. Radzhabov is ready and waiting when Ogden comes after him, and he coils and fires a right hand to back Ogden off. “The Shamurai” ducks a second looping punch, and he snatches up the legs of his opponent and deposits Radzhabov down to the canvas to send an early message. Radzhabov posts off his right arm and tries to work himself up to his knees, and Ogden holds on from behind and looks for a mat return. Radzhabov grabs the fence, and the onlookers cry foul as Dean takes a look but does say anything. Ogden succeeds in dragging “The Tajik Tank” down from behind, getting both of his hooks in as he is quick to search for a rear-naked choke. Ogden drapes his arm on Radzhabov’s face and squeezes, and he lets it go as Radzhabov turns around to his knees. Ogden smacks Radzhabov on the sides of the head from behind as he looks to flatten Radzhabov, and he goes hunting for another rear-naked choke that nearly gets beneath the chin. Ogden turns Radzhabov over and secures a body triangle, and he softens Radzhabov up with strikes on either side. Radzhabov twists and turns but is unable to get the body lock off of him, and Ogden makes his life miserable by covering his mouth and holding tight. Ogden tries for a brute force neck crank, but Radzhabov turns his head to the right direction to stop it from going anywhere. Radzhabov hand-fights effectively to stop Ogden from sinking the choke in, and he turns over to his knees but is unsuccessful to get out thanks in part to Ogden’s body triangle. Ogden gets closer on his choke attempt, but once more Radzhabov defends it properly. Ogden gets a forearm on the chin, and he thinks about using a face crank but does not decide to turn his arms out. Radzhabov defends himself enough to survive the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 2
Before the second round begins, Dean brings in the translator to issue a hard warning for Radzhabov grabbing the fence in the previous round. Radzhabov acknowledges this and the round begins. Radzhabov comes out firing, and Ogden is elusive enough to avoid the worst of the blows but takes a solid uppercut before tying Radzhabov up. Radzhabov spins away and whips a left hook at his man, and he races forward swinging hard. Radzhabov stifles a desperate single, and Ogden is backed up against the cage wall and gets clipped by the hard-swinging fighter known as “The Tajik Tank.” Ogden lands a low kick to briefly slow Radzhabov down, and he brings up a knee when they clinch for a second. Ogden tosses out a left hand as he wobbles back from big right hands from his adversary, and Radzhabov swings that same blow at him several times to moderate effect. Ogden checks a leg kick and gives one back, and Radzhabov crashes the pocket and lands two thudding right hooks before Ogden ties him up again. Ogden chooses to break free and reset, and Radzhabov continues plodding forward swinging mighty fists. The fighter from Tajikistan connects with a stern uppercut, and Ogden replies with a body lock and a takedown that he lands with relative ease. Even easier, Ogden walks into full mount, and he uses a modified arm-triangle choke to flatten Radzhabov out from above. Ogden sits down on the arm-triangle choke and presses his weight down, and Radzhabov’s face starts changing colors even as he defends the grip by answering the phone. Ogden leans down on one side and remains in full mount as he does so, and he elects to move to the side to complete it but loses the grip and hops back to mount. Radzhabov survives the submission as Ogden uses heavy shoulder pressure to frustrate him, and he bucks as hard as he can to scramble and get Ogden off of him. Ogden looks to flip him over and trap him in a submission roll, but he cannot keep Radzhabov grounded. Both men get to their feet, and Radzhabov tries and fails to land power strikes before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ogden
Round 3
Radzhabov’s corner spills ice and water on the floor, a veteran move to get more time, and someone has to rush into the cage to wipe up the excess liquid as Joe Rogan is screaming at his screen from afar. Ogden begins the round by backpedaling when Radzhabov comes at him, and he uses Radzhabov’s momentum against him by tackling him to the mat and landing in a controlling half guard. Ogden bops Radzhabov with a few short, light strikes before wrapping his left arm around the back of Radzhabov’s head to set up another submission. Like a snake, Ogden slowly and methodically wraps up the arm-triangle choke, and Radzhabov keeps himself from getting snared entirely but cannot keep Ogden from climbing into the full mount position. Radzhabov smacks Ogden on the side of the head with his free right hand, irritating Ogden enough to bring his hand up to block the blows before lowering himself all the way flat on top. An Ezekiel choke is briefly in play for “Shamurai,” but he decides against wrapping his forearm on the windpipe so he can drill Radzhabov in the face with shoulder shots. Dean calls for more action even with Ogden in mount, and Radzhabov answers the call and explodes upright and falls into a guillotine choke. Radzhabov spins out of it and flips Ogden to his back, and he hammers down with vicious ground-and-pound until Ogden ties him up for a second. Ogden uses a butterfly guard to put his feet on the hips and hits a sweep, but Radzhabov is savvy enough to lower himself into the guard and posture up to blast Ogden with heavy punches. Radzhabov grabs the fence to turn himself in an effort to secure better position, and Dean goes to slap his hand but Radzhabov pulls it back to release more punches and elbows on Ogden’s dome. Ogden retaliates by sending Radzhabov flying when he kicks off the hips, and Radzhabov races after him to get on top and ride out the remainder of the bout.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ogden (30-27 Ogden)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Radzhabov (29-28 Ogden)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Radzhabov (29-28 Ogden)
The Official Result
Trey Ogden def. Loik Radzhabov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Trey Ogden as an underdog because he trusts Ogden's consistent, boring game plan of takedowns and control. He notes that Loik Radzhabov has subpar takedown defense and can be taken down multiple times, while Ogden is confident and will shoot takedowns. He plans to watch the line movement and potentially bet if the odds improve.
Cody picks Ogden, citing his 100% takedown defense in the UFC and his ability to neutralize opponents with top control. He questions Radzhabov's cardio and thinks Ogden can outwork him with volume and key takedowns. He admits it's a close fight but likes Ogden's game plan.
Daniel Vreeland picks Loik Radzhabov, criticizing Trey Ogden's safe, risk-averse style. He notes Ogden's recent wins were against opponents who underperformed, and that Radzhabov is a physical, aggressive fighter who will force a fight. Vreeland believes Radzhabov's pressure and takedown ability will overwhelm Ogden.
Ogden is a pick'em at -110. He has a disciplined game plan and excellent top control, as seen against Holobaugh. He can weather Radzhabov's early power and then take over with his wrestling and cardio in the second and third rounds. Radzhabov tends to fade, and Ogden's fight IQ should allow him to set up takedowns as the fight progresses. The main concern is Ogden's durability, but his overall game plan and cardio favor him.
Paul also picks Ogden, liking his last two fights and smart game plans. He thinks it will be a close, greasy fight likely going to decision. He suggests looking at split decision props.
The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Trey Ogden. He compares Ogden to Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady and notes Ogden's tricky outside fighting style but points out his loss to Jordan Leavitt as worrying. He highlights Radzhabov's dangerous early rounds and close fight with Esteban Ribovics, and believes Radzhabov can win by TKO or decision, possibly slowing down in the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 38 of 68 | 55% | 50 of 84 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 1 | 39 of 90 | 43% | 57 of 115 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 25 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 22 of 33 | 66% | 29 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 18 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 1 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 38 of 68 | 55% | 15 of 34 | 8 of 11 | 15 of 23 | 34 of 61 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 39 of 90 | 43% | 33 of 72 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 3 | 18 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 12 of 26 | 46% | 4 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 9 | 11 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 14 of 35 | 40% | 13 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 12 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 22 of 33 | 66% | 9 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 21 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 12 of 34 | 35% | 7 of 22 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 4 of 9 | 44% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 13 of 21 | 61% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 13 |
Angelo leans Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady because he believes the striking danger matters more than the takedown danger. He notes that every round starts on the feet and Loik Radzhabov, who was just knocked out, will have to worry about Abdul's power. He thinks Abdul likely wins by finish but is unsure about bets.
Big Brady picks Al-Selwady, noting his impressive performance against George Hardwick where he outstruck a hyped fighter. He thinks Al-Selwady will keep the fight standing and out-volume Radzhabov, who has low volume and has been hurt on the feet. He expects a decision win for Al-Selwady, as Radzhabov is durable but may tire.
Cody picks Al-Selwady, noting Radzhabov's reliance on wrestling and poor cardio. He points out that when Radzhabov can't get takedowns, he struggles, as seen in his loss to Mateusz Rębecki. Cody believes Al-Selwady's wrestling and pace will tire Radzhabov, leading to a decision or late TKO. He mentions Radzhabov's durability issues.
Radzhabov has a slight height and striking advantage, being cleaner down the pipe. Al-Selwady usually wings shots and crashes the pocket, but Radzhabov's pure wrestling advantage should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. Radzhabov has far better experience against legitimate opponents and should outpoint Al-Selwady for a decision win.
Paul picks Al-Selwady, citing his solid cardio, pace, and well-rounded skills. He notes Radzhabov's tendency to overexert and his poor durability, having been knocked out multiple times. Paul believes Al-Selwady will outwork Radzhabov and possibly finish him late. He mentions Al-Selwady's impressive win over George Hardwick on the Contender Series.
The MMA Guru picks Al-Selwady over Radzhabov, calling Radzhabov 'dog [__]' and lacking athleticism. He praises Al-Selwady's performance against George Hardwick, noting his stance switching, leg kicks, and takedown threats. He believes Al-Selwady will outwork Radzhabov and cause damage as the fight goes on.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rębecki | 2 | 54 of 95 | 56% | 64 of 110 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 19 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 35 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Rębecki | 2 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Rębecki | 54 of 95 | 56% | 24 of 58 | 12 of 17 | 18 of 20 | 54 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 19 of 54 | 35% | 16 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Rębecki | 28 of 54 | 51% | 13 of 33 | 8 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 28 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 10 of 30 | 33% | 7 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Rębecki | 26 of 41 | 63% | 11 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 12 | 26 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Loik Radzhabov | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-155), Radzhabov (+135)
Round 1
A classic battle of Poland vs. Tajikistan is about to play out in a match that was initially scheduled at lightweight. Both looking to make their sophomore appearance a positive one, “Chinczyk” Rebecki (17-1, 1-0 UFC) will battle it out with the heavy PFL export Radzhabov (17-4-1, 1-0 UFC). The third man in the Octagon for this de facto 158-pound catchweight contest will be referee James Larry Folsom, and the fighters still touch gloves despite the weight discrepancy. Rebecki moves into striking range, backing his foe off and not worried about a big punch aimed at his direction. Rebecki loads up on a body kick, and he walks into a looping right hand. Rebecki rushes at his man with a pair of punches, and Radzhabov bounces off the fence and absorbs a pair of big leg kicks. Radzhabov gets a head of steam and aims a right hand and a body kick back. Rebecki continues to hammer the lead wheel, and he punches Radzhabov square in the face as Radzhabov tries to duck. Rebecki scoots back from a right hand and hammers the inside calf with a kick. Radzhabov swings his way into a body lock takedown attempt, and Rebecki breaks out of the clinch and kicks the ribcage. Radzhabov races forward to sling punches, and Rebecki takes them and goes back to crowding Radzhabov against the wall. Rebecki pins Radzhabov back and pops him with a left hook and a few jabs, and he suddenly changes levels to snatch up a double. Radzhabov falls to his back and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and Rebecki pops his head out as he steps into an advantageous position with Radzhabov’s legs trapped between his own. Rebecki slugs Radzhabov in the chops with a right hand in his partial mount position, as he could shimmy up to sit on Radzhabov’s hips. Instead, Rebecki hops out of it to the side, so he can elbow Radzhabov on the dome. The fighter from Tajikistan scrambles to his knees and forces his way back to his feet, and he launches a big leg kick. Rebecki lunges forward with a fiery right hand, and he blasts Radzhabov with a leg kick that separates Radzhabov from his balance. Rebecki jumps on top of a fallen Radzhabov and locks up a crucifix position in a hurry with 20 seconds to go. Rebecki sets up a straight armlock from his angle, and he lets it go to hold Radzhabov down until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, and Radzhabov starts by slugging it out. Rebecki nails him with a kick, and Radzhabov is barely able to stand up. Radzhabov wobbles back to the fence to let it help keep him upright, and Rebecki attacks it relentlessly. Rebecki measures his punches as Radzhabov is up against the wall, and he does not get reckless as Radzhabov is throwing big counters back his way. Radzhabov scores a leg hand, an elbow and another few punches. Rebecki measures his man and drives home several more low kicks to both legs, and Radzhabov cannot stand up and drops to his knees. Through sheer force of will, Radzhabov stands back up, and he entices Rebecki into a mad brawl. Rebecki obliges and busts Radzhabov in the chops, and he swings low kicks that make Radzhabov react physically every time. Even when Radzhabov lifts his leg up, the shin slams into it and makes him wince.
Radzhabov takes a hard look at the clock, which says 2:45 left in the round, and Rebecki is stalking him with accurate, dangerous blows. Rebecki decks Radzhabov with a massive left hand, and Radzhabov crashes to the ground.
Folsom immediately leaps in between them to call a halt to the contest, giving fans their first finish of the night in what some might consider a mercy stoppage. Rebecki limps away, having suffered some serious damage to his foot from the hellacious kicks, and he successfully pushes his impressive win streak to 15 straight.
The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Loik Radzhabov R2 2:36 via TKO (Punch)
Angelo gives a slight lean to Mateusz Rębecki, thinking his wrestling and striking are a little better. He expects a banger and says the odds are perfect with Rębecki as a slight favorite. He has no bet on this fight and plans to just watch.
Big Brady picks the underdog Loik Radzhabov, citing his wrestling ability and tougher competition. He notes that Rębecki's win over Nick Fiore aged poorly after Chase Hooper beat him. He has concerns about Radzhabov's cardio but thinks he can implement takedowns early. He predicts a close, competitive split decision.
Cody picks Rębecki, noting his better cardio and wrestling. He thinks Radzhabov will gas and Rębecki can take over. He considers live betting if Radzhabov wins the first round.
Connor initially leaned toward Radzhabov because he sees more depth in his takedown game, but after discussion he switches to Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki is a better boxer with more creativity, able to throw left hands and body punches, while Radzhabov is limited to timing the right hand. Connor thinks both fighters are similar wrestle-boxers who gas after one round, but Rębecki's bullishness and ability to tank damage and keep slinging hard shots gives him the edge. He also points out that Radzhabov's confidence crumples when things go south, while Rębecki keeps coming.
Daniel Levi picks Mateusz Rębecki, arguing that the market overreacted to his decision win over Fiore. He thinks Rębecki dominated that fight and gassed from beating his opponent, not from poor cardio. He sees Rębecki as more physical and believes he will overwhelm Radzhabov. He thinks there is value at -145 and plans to bet.
The host picks Mateusz Rębecki to win by decision. He believes Rębecki's size and strength will be too much for Radzhabov to get his takedowns, and that Rębecki will get the better positions on top and land more significant damage. He notes both fighters have cardio issues but expects Rębecki to edge out a grappling-heavy decision.
Paul picks Rębecki, citing his wrestling advantage and cardio. He notes Radzhabov's tendency to gas and thinks Rębecki can out-grapple him. He expects a decision win.
The Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki, noting that Loik Radzhabov struggled against Esteban Ribovics, who stuffed takedowns and showed more potential. He believes Rębecki is a shorter, stockier, great grappler who can stuff takedowns and be a wrecking machine. He predicts Rębecki will get a KO at the end of round one or two after pressuring Radzhabov backwards.
Zane initially leaned toward Rębecki because he thinks Rębecki is a better boxer with more creativity, able to throw left hands and body punches, while Radzhabov is limited to timing the right hand. After discussion, he agrees with Connor that Rębecki's bullishness and ability to tank damage and keep slinging hard shots gives him the edge. Zane also notes that Radzhabov's confidence crumples when things go south, while Rębecki keeps coming. He thinks both fighters are similar wrestle-boxers who gas after one round, but Rębecki's creativity in striking makes the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 1 | 66 of 129 | 51% | 98 of 162 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:31 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 40 of 85 | 47% | 67 of 117 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 7:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 1 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 18 of 33 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 41 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:27 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 29 of 47 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 66 of 129 | 51% | 52 of 114 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 61 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 40 of 85 | 47% | 33 of 78 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 25 of 47 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 13 of 28 | 46% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 19 of 34 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Loik Radzhabov based on his pressure, cardio, and non-stop wrestling, which he believes will be the difference. He notes that Radzhabov can push a pace for 15 minutes and has solid takedowns, but his striking can be sloppy and he gets tired. Angelo is hesitant because both fighters are making their UFC debut, making the outcome unpredictable, and he advises against betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics as a dog despite Radzhabov being the favorite. He notes Radzhabov is on short notice and has questionable cardio, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere with submissions and power. However, he acknowledges Ribovics is untested against good competition. He predicts a second-round KO for Ribovics.
Cody picks Radzhabov, citing his experience against higher-level competition in PFL. He thinks Ribovics' regional competition is too low level and his grappling defense is suspect. He expects Radzhabov to take him down and dominate.
Connor picks Loik Radzhabov, relying on his wrestling and durability. He notes that Ribovics is a heavy-handed puncher but has limited grappling, and Radzhabov has never been knocked out. Connor thinks that if Radzhabov can survive the early exchanges, he will take the fight to the clinch and use his Greco-Roman wrestling to control the fight. He acknowledges the risk of Ribovics landing a knockout.
Jacob picks Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's tendency to get tired and put his hands down, which will leave him vulnerable to Ribovics' power. He believes Ribovics can survive the first round and then take over as Radzhabov fades. Jacob is 50/50 on the fight and sees value in a Ribovics finish in the second or third round.
Radzhabov is a grapple-heavy fighter who will close distance and drag the fight to the ground, where he does damage from top position. Ribovics has questionable takedown defense and his Kimura sweep path to his feet won't work at this level. Radzhabov will repeatedly take him down and grind out a decision victory.
Paul is confident in Radzhabov, calling it a talent gap. He thinks Ribovics' submission attempts won't work at this level and Radzhabov's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He notes Radzhabov's cardio is a concern but expects a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's experience against tough competition in PFL and his durability, having never been finished. He notes Ribovics' recent win was against a low-level opponent and doubts he can finish Radzhabov. He predicts a decision win for Radzhabov, 29-28.
Zane also picks Radzhabov, though he is hesitant. He notes that Ribovics is a powerful puncher but Radzhabov is durable and has a strong clinch game. Zane thinks that if Radzhabov can avoid getting knocked out early, he will grind out a win with his wrestling. He acknowledges that Ribovics could land a knockout, but Radzhabov's chin and experience give him the edge.
Esteban Ribovics - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 38 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:50 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 24 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 34 | 52% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 4 of 21 | 19% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 21 | 66% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.
Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.
Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.
Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.
The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.
James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.
Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.
Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.
The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.
Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 118 of 250 | 47% | 123 of 256 | 0 of 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 122 of 281 | 43% | 123 of 284 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 36 of 68 | 52% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 39 of 95 | 41% | 40 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 48 of 88 | 54% | 51 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 34 of 84 | 40% | 34 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 34 of 94 | 36% | 35 of 95 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 49 of 102 | 48% | 49 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 118 of 250 | 47% | 88 of 211 | 15 of 23 | 15 of 16 | 118 of 248 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 122 of 281 | 43% | 86 of 233 | 23 of 29 | 13 of 19 | 114 of 268 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 36 of 68 | 52% | 21 of 51 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 36 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 39 of 95 | 41% | 29 of 83 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 31 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 48 of 88 | 54% | 39 of 76 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 48 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 34 of 84 | 40% | 21 of 65 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 34 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 34 of 94 | 36% | 28 of 84 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 49 of 102 | 48% | 36 of 85 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 49 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor sees Ribovics as a durable, violent striker who enjoys pocket exchanges, which neutralizes Brener's main weapon. He notes Ribovics has technical skills and a camp that can improve him, while Brener's reckless style leaves him open to counters. Connor believes Brener's game is unsustainable and that Ribovics will land more significant shots.
Lucrative James views Ribovics as the more educated striker with a diverse arsenal, including body shots. He notes Brener's durability may be declining, as he was hurt in recent fights by Joel Alvarez and Oro. He acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Brener has the grappling skill to exploit it for three rounds. He predicts Ribovics will land heavy shots and finish inside the distance, possibly by knockout or TKO.
Zane agrees Ribovics is the pick, highlighting that Brenner's game relies on opponents not enjoying the fight as much as he does. Ribovics clearly enjoys brawling, which takes away Brenner's advantage. Zane notes Brenner's poor distance control and tendency to get hit, while Ribovics is a more technical and durable striker.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 135 of 273 | 49% | 135 of 273 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 147 of 433 | 33% | 149 of 436 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 36 of 107 | 33% | 36 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 49 of 104 | 47% | 49 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 62 of 183 | 33% | 62 of 183 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 53 of 105 | 50% | 53 of 105 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 49 of 143 | 34% | 51 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasrat Haqparast | 135 of 273 | 49% | 103 of 233 | 26 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 134 of 272 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 147 of 433 | 33% | 120 of 395 | 17 of 27 | 10 of 11 | 147 of 433 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasrat Haqparast | 33 of 64 | 51% | 21 of 50 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 36 of 107 | 33% | 28 of 94 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 36 of 107 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nasrat Haqparast | 49 of 104 | 47% | 39 of 91 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 62 of 183 | 33% | 53 of 170 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 62 of 183 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nasrat Haqparast | 53 of 105 | 50% | 43 of 92 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 52 of 104 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 49 of 143 | 34% | 39 of 131 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 143 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics, highlighting his sneaky power, tight striking, and ability to mix in takedowns and BJJ. He notes that Nasrat Haqparast is not very dangerous and tends to win close decisions, but believes Ribovics can win more decisively. He also mentions that Vegas judges don't favor Nasrat, which could help Ribovics.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics, citing his volume, durability, and power. He notes Nasrat Haqparast is not a wrestler and will stand and trade, which favors Ribovics. He predicts Ribovics will break Haqparast and knock him out in the second round.
Connor picks Ribovics as a fun flyer, noting that Ribovics is a pocket combination puncher who will force exchanges and get hit but also land. He mentions that Haqparast has lost to similar pressure fighters like Dober and that Ribovics has the power to hurt him. Connor admits it's a competitive fight but goes with Ribovics for the upset.
The host acknowledges the public is high on Ribovics after his Fight of the Year candidate, but believes they are overlooking Haqparast's experience and strength of schedule. He expects Haqparast's combination striking to overcome the favorite and win a decision.
The Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Nasrat Haqparast. He views Haqparast as a simple straight-punch fighter without enough power, while Ribovics is more dynamic with better footwork, kicks, and versatility. He notes Ribovics' fight of the year contender and predicts a close 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Haqparast, banking on his speed and experience in close fights. He notes that Haqparast rarely loses to opponents he is faster than, and Ribovics is hittable and will force exchanges. Zane acknowledges that Haqparast can be out-thought but believes his athleticism will carry him in a brawl.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 1 | 121 of 308 | 39% | 121 of 308 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 156 of 345 | 45% | 156 of 345 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 24 of 65 | 36% | 24 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 51 of 116 | 43% | 51 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 40 of 89 | 44% | 40 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 1 | 43 of 116 | 37% | 43 of 116 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 92 of 191 | 48% | 92 of 191 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 121 of 308 | 39% | 83 of 255 | 33 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 117 of 304 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 156 of 345 | 45% | 103 of 276 | 32 of 48 | 21 of 21 | 154 of 342 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 27 of 76 | 35% | 13 of 59 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 24 of 65 | 36% | 7 of 41 | 9 of 16 | 8 of 8 | 24 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 51 of 116 | 43% | 33 of 93 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 50 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 40 of 89 | 44% | 23 of 68 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 40 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 43 of 116 | 37% | 37 of 103 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 114 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 92 of 191 | 48% | 73 of 167 | 14 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 90 of 188 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He notes Ribovics is well-rounded with sneaky power, tight strikes, good takedowns, and solid BJJ. He sees this as a close fight possibly going to split decision, so he placed a quarter unit on Ribovics moneyline at +180 and plans to put another quarter on the plus 3.5 spread to cover a close decision loss. He is confident in the dog pick.
Big Brady likes Zellhuber due to an 8-inch reach advantage and superior striking technique. He notes Ribovics has no takedown defense, so Zellhuber can mix in takedowns if needed. He expects a competitive fight but Zellhuber to win a decision.
Daniel leans with Daniel Zellhuber, praising his 8-inch reach advantage, kickboxing, and 94% takedown defense. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter but respects Ribovics' dangerous hands and get-up game. He is not fully convinced the line is right but goes with Zellhuber.
Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Zellhuber because he likes his volume and ability to put pressure on opponents. He notes Zellhuber's only loss was to Trey Ogden, who grinded him out, but Ribovics is a power puncher who will let his hands fly, which plays into Zellhuber's strengths. He compares it to the Bahamondes vs Torres fight, favoring the taller, sharper striker.
Jeff Fox picks Daniel Zellhuber as well, stating he is slightly better everywhere. He acknowledges the odds aren't favorable but notes he is ignoring size and youth this time, having turned over a new leaf.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Ribovics packs power but Zellhuber is very calm, technical, and disciplined with his striking approach. Expects Zellhuber to utilize his footwork and touch up Ribovics from distance, winning on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber. He highlights Zellhuber's 8-inch reach advantage and his ability to keep distance and pick shots. He notes Ribovics has a 69-inch reach which is flyweight-level, and at 5'10" that's a disadvantage. He trusts Zellhuber's game plan under coach Eric Nicksick and his recent back-to-back good performances.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 56 of 107 | 52% | 86 of 147 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 6:20 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 115 of 202 | 56% | 135 of 224 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 29 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 36 of 68 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 65 of 118 | 55% | 71 of 126 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 21 of 40 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 61 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 56 of 107 | 52% | 36 of 84 | 12 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 51 of 101 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 115 of 202 | 56% | 94 of 177 | 17 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 92 of 172 | 10 of 13 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 35 of 67 | 52% | 20 of 50 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 65 of 118 | 55% | 58 of 109 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 55 of 102 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 10 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 19 of 38 | 50% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 49 of 82 | 59% | 36 of 68 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 68 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
Angelo is confident in Ribovics, calling him the better striker with sneaky power and solid takedowns. He notes Kirk's tendency to fade, keep his hands low, and be hittable. He thinks Kirk's patience and year-long layoff will work against him. He placed a full unit bet at -200 and sees value even at that price.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Ribovics has heavy power and has knocked out opponents brutally, but his takedown defense is terrible. He believes Kirk is a good grappler who doesn't use his grappling enough, and if Kirk tries to strike, he will get knocked out. He expects Kirk to get tired if he wrestles, and Ribovics will take over and finish him in the second or third round.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting his power and improved wrestling. He thinks Kirk's wrestling is overrated and he has not improved. He mentions Ribovics showed good cardio and get-up ability against a strong wrestler. He grabbed Ribovics at -139.
Connor picks Ribovics because Kirk is a fighter who can be dominated in any area where his opponent is better. Ribovics is a better striker and more deliberate, and he showed credible resistance against pressure in his fight with Rongzhu. Kirk's flashy style doesn't hold up against solid fundamentals.
Daniel Levi picks Ribovics, citing his dog mentality, knockout power, and ability to take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Kirk has cardio issues and has been broken in past fights, and that Ribovics showed resilience in his UFC debut by coming back after being rocked and taken down. Levi acknowledges that Kirk may have success early but believes Ribovics's volume and power will be decisive. He also mentions that Kirk moving up to lightweight may help his cardio, but still favors Ribovics.
James believes Ribovics is the better fighter overall, citing intangibles like cardio, durability, power, physicality, heart, and will. He thinks Kirk may have better technical MMA skills but lacks the intangibles and will look for a way out when the going gets tough. James would make Ribovics at least a -170 favorite, seeing value at the current -140 to -150 range.
Ribovics has shown he can deal with grapple-heavy approaches and work back to his feet to land his striking. Kirk struggles with pressure, and Ribovics will overwhelm him with aggressive striking, eventually finding the chin and finishing with ground and pound. The under 2.5 rounds is also a viable play.
Paul picks Ribovics, citing his physicality and power. He thinks Kirk has stagnated and lost to better competition. He notes Ribovics' performance against a tough wrestler showed his potential. He expects Ribovics to win by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics to win by KO in the first round. He describes Kirk as a worse version of Shane Burgos who overthrows his shots and leaves himself open to counters. He believes Ribovics' nasty counter hooks will catch Kirk coming in, leading to a finish.
Zane picks Ribovics because Kirk is all flash and swagger with little substance, and he crumbles under pressure as seen against Damon Jackson. Ribovics is a more solid, deliberate striker who can pressure Kirk and dominate him in any area. Kirk has no answer for naked pressure, and Ribovics looks better everywhere.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 1 | 66 of 129 | 51% | 98 of 162 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:31 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 40 of 85 | 47% | 67 of 117 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 7:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 1 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 18 of 33 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 41 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:27 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 29 of 47 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 66 of 129 | 51% | 52 of 114 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 61 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 40 of 85 | 47% | 33 of 78 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 25 of 47 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 13 of 28 | 46% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 19 of 34 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Loik Radzhabov based on his pressure, cardio, and non-stop wrestling, which he believes will be the difference. He notes that Radzhabov can push a pace for 15 minutes and has solid takedowns, but his striking can be sloppy and he gets tired. Angelo is hesitant because both fighters are making their UFC debut, making the outcome unpredictable, and he advises against betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics as a dog despite Radzhabov being the favorite. He notes Radzhabov is on short notice and has questionable cardio, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere with submissions and power. However, he acknowledges Ribovics is untested against good competition. He predicts a second-round KO for Ribovics.
Cody picks Radzhabov, citing his experience against higher-level competition in PFL. He thinks Ribovics' regional competition is too low level and his grappling defense is suspect. He expects Radzhabov to take him down and dominate.
Connor picks Loik Radzhabov, relying on his wrestling and durability. He notes that Ribovics is a heavy-handed puncher but has limited grappling, and Radzhabov has never been knocked out. Connor thinks that if Radzhabov can survive the early exchanges, he will take the fight to the clinch and use his Greco-Roman wrestling to control the fight. He acknowledges the risk of Ribovics landing a knockout.
Jacob picks Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's tendency to get tired and put his hands down, which will leave him vulnerable to Ribovics' power. He believes Ribovics can survive the first round and then take over as Radzhabov fades. Jacob is 50/50 on the fight and sees value in a Ribovics finish in the second or third round.
Radzhabov is a grapple-heavy fighter who will close distance and drag the fight to the ground, where he does damage from top position. Ribovics has questionable takedown defense and his Kimura sweep path to his feet won't work at this level. Radzhabov will repeatedly take him down and grind out a decision victory.
Paul is confident in Radzhabov, calling it a talent gap. He thinks Ribovics' submission attempts won't work at this level and Radzhabov's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He notes Radzhabov's cardio is a concern but expects a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's experience against tough competition in PFL and his durability, having never been finished. He notes Ribovics' recent win was against a low-level opponent and doubts he can finish Radzhabov. He predicts a decision win for Radzhabov, 29-28.
Zane also picks Radzhabov, though he is hesitant. He notes that Ribovics is a powerful puncher but Radzhabov is durable and has a strong clinch game. Zane thinks that if Radzhabov can avoid getting knocked out early, he will grind out a win with his wrestling. He acknowledges that Ribovics could land a knockout, but Radzhabov's chin and experience give him the edge.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Loik Radzhabov based on his pressure, cardio, and non-stop wrestling, which he believes will be the difference. He notes that Radzhabov can push a pace for 15 minutes and has solid takedowns, but his striking can be sloppy and he gets tired. Angelo is hesitant because both fighters are making their UFC debut, making the outcome unpredictable, and he advises against betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics as a dog despite Radzhabov being the favorite. He notes Radzhabov is on short notice and has questionable cardio, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere with submissions and power. However, he acknowledges Ribovics is untested against good competition. He predicts a second-round KO for Ribovics.
Cody picks Radzhabov, citing his experience against higher-level competition in PFL. He thinks Ribovics' regional competition is too low level and his grappling defense is suspect. He expects Radzhabov to take him down and dominate.
Connor picks Loik Radzhabov, relying on his wrestling and durability. He notes that Ribovics is a heavy-handed puncher but has limited grappling, and Radzhabov has never been knocked out. Connor thinks that if Radzhabov can survive the early exchanges, he will take the fight to the clinch and use his Greco-Roman wrestling to control the fight. He acknowledges the risk of Ribovics landing a knockout.
Jacob picks Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's tendency to get tired and put his hands down, which will leave him vulnerable to Ribovics' power. He believes Ribovics can survive the first round and then take over as Radzhabov fades. Jacob is 50/50 on the fight and sees value in a Ribovics finish in the second or third round.
Radzhabov is a grapple-heavy fighter who will close distance and drag the fight to the ground, where he does damage from top position. Ribovics has questionable takedown defense and his Kimura sweep path to his feet won't work at this level. Radzhabov will repeatedly take him down and grind out a decision victory.
Paul is confident in Radzhabov, calling it a talent gap. He thinks Ribovics' submission attempts won't work at this level and Radzhabov's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He notes Radzhabov's cardio is a concern but expects a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's experience against tough competition in PFL and his durability, having never been finished. He notes Ribovics' recent win was against a low-level opponent and doubts he can finish Radzhabov. He predicts a decision win for Radzhabov, 29-28.
Zane also picks Radzhabov, though he is hesitant. He notes that Ribovics is a powerful puncher but Radzhabov is durable and has a strong clinch game. Zane thinks that if Radzhabov can avoid getting knocked out early, he will grind out a win with his wrestling. He acknowledges that Ribovics could land a knockout, but Radzhabov's chin and experience give him the edge.
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