vs
-230 +280
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane Next Fight
Age 31
Height 5' 1"
Reach 61.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 43
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tabatha Ricci
4.0 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
4.83 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
2.51 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jessica Penne
2.63 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
5.05 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.29 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
36.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Tabatha Ricci
Moneyline
DraftKings -230
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1050
Submission
BetRivers +550
Decision
FanDuel -125
Jessica Penne
Moneyline
Caesars +280
KO/TKO
FanDuel +2000
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
BetRivers +400
Tabatha Ricci - Fight History
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 26 of 64 40% 122 of 174 6 of 12 50% 0 0 8:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 37 of 82 45% 89 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 3 of 10 30% 26 of 34 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 7 of 13 53% 9 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 9 of 16 56% 61 of 79 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:33
Tabatha Ricci 0 6 of 14 42% 50 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 14 of 38 36% 35 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:27
Tabatha Ricci 0 24 of 55 43% 30 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 26 of 64 40% 19 of 56 7 of 8 0 of 0 24 of 60 1 of 3 1 of 1
Tabatha Ricci 37 of 82 45% 27 of 68 5 of 7 5 of 7 33 of 77 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 7 of 13 53% 5 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 9 of 16 56% 8 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 13 1 of 2 1 of 1
Tabatha Ricci 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 3 4 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Virna Jandiroba 14 of 38 36% 8 of 31 6 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 24 of 55 43% 19 of 47 3 of 5 2 of 3 22 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba, believing she is the better wrestler and can control the fight. He criticizes Tabatha Ricci's striking, saying she thinks she's a boxer but isn't, and her takedowns are poor. He notes Jandiroba is one judge away from being champion and expects her to grind out a win. He placed a half-unit bet on Jandiroba at +115.

Angelo says 'I threw a half a unit on Verna at plus 115.'
"Vera's going to get all the takedowns, have all the control time."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady leans toward Tabatha Ricci but with low confidence. He acknowledges Jandiroba is a higher-level grappler but thinks Ricci is stronger, has better wrestling, and is the better striker. He sees a path where Ricci stuffs takedowns and wins on the feet. He also notes Jandiroba's age (37) and potential lack of motivation after a title loss. He will not bet this fight.

No bet
"I'm leaning Ricci here. Not with a ton of confidence cuz Verna is a tricky tricky fighter to pick and bet against. I will not be betting this fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci because she is the better striker and has excellent takedown defense, making it hard for Jandiroba to hold her down. He believes the judges will favor damage over control time, and Ricci's striking will leave a lasting impression.

"Rei just maybe lands a few more damaging blows. Reachi's last fight with Hebas, you saw those elbows from the clinch, big shots against the cage. That's probably what's going to be the lasting impression on the judg's minds."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Connor also picks Jandiroba, agreeing that Ricci's style of fighting forward and trying to grapple will be a problem against a superior grappler. He notes that Jandiroba is a spiritual successor to Damien Maia, always looking to turn striking into takedowns. Connor points out that Ricci hasn't shown the ability to make adjustments against elite fighters and relies too much on physicality, which won't be enough here.

"I also just don't think Ricci will avoid going for her own ground."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host is torn on the winner, seeing strong cases for both. He initially leaned Ricci due to youth and volume, but after research, he sees Jandiroba's power and ground advantage as significant. He concludes the fight is too close to bet pre-fight and prefers live betting. However, he does bet Ricci +3.5 on the fight spread.

Bet on Tabatha Ricci +3.5 (fight spread).
"I do like Richie plus 3.5 just because I think with how much Janderroa slows down and the pace at which Richie fights at, I think no matter what happens, Richie will make Jander Robba work very hard."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)

James mentions the co-main event but does not give a pick for either fighter. He only describes the matchup as interesting.

"We have a co-main event that doesn't light your hair on fire, but it's probably going to be a interesting match-up at least."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

James leans toward Virna Jandiroba as the underdog, surprised by the odds given Jandiroba's recent title fight and superior grappling. He believes Jandiroba's top control and submission threat are the best in the division, and that Ricci hasn't faced such a test. He notes Ricci's striking advantage but doubts her power, calling her knockout of Amanda Ribas a fluke. However, he hesitates due to Jandiroba's age (37) and potential post-title-fight letdown, and mentions he might bet the over instead. He picks Jandiroba via decision but is not confident enough to bet.

Considering over 2.5 rounds; no bet placed
"I have to pick Vera for that reason. I don't know if I'm going to bet her though honestly, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The host believes Jandiroba's grappling will be too much for Ricci, as she can get takedowns and keep Ricci in defensive positions. He notes Ricci's improved striking but doubts she can provide enough danger to keep Jandiroba from her game. He expects Jandiroba to win by decision, controlling the fight with top pressure.

"I think Janji Doba is a good enough grappler that she'll be able to keep Reachi in defensive positions for the most part... I like Jangidoba here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul leans towards Ricci, noting that Jandiroba's grappling-heavy style may not score well if judges prioritize damage. He acknowledges Jandiroba's takedown ability but thinks Ricci's striking and ability to get back up will be key.

"I don't know. It's basically a pick them and it's going to be a fight for who can get top control and really nobody's been getting top control and and and being able to win that type of fight against …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, predicting a controversial decision win. He believes Ricci will be out-grappled but the judges will favor her, possibly setting up a future fight with Mackenzie Dern. He notes Jandiroba looked bad against Dern and that Ricci is coming off a TKO win.

Controversial decision predicted
"I'm going to go with Tabatha Ricci, man. I can see this being a weird scorecard, 29-28. They give it a win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Zane picks Jandiroba, comparing her to Damien Maia as a grappler who knows how to wrestle up and has developed good enough boxing to supplement her grappling. He notes that Ricci is aggressive and fights on the front foot, but is too small to have a dominant top game. Zane believes Ricci's physicality won't be enough against Jandiroba's superior grappling and that Ricci's willingness to engage in the clinch will play into Jandiroba's hands.

"I just got to pick John did over here. I don't think Ricci's ready for that kind of challenge to her game."
WIN vs Amanda Ribas
KO R2 2:59 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 30 of 72 41% 77 of 122 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Tabatha Ricci 0 34 of 76 44% 82 of 140 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 22 of 47 46% 55 of 83 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Tabatha Ricci 0 14 of 42 33% 48 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:39
2 Amanda Ribas 0 8 of 25 32% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 20 of 34 58% 34 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 30 of 72 41% 18 of 57 5 of 6 7 of 9 29 of 68 1 of 4 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 34 of 76 44% 23 of 60 6 of 10 5 of 6 20 of 61 4 of 5 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 22 of 47 46% 13 of 37 5 of 5 4 of 5 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 14 of 42 33% 8 of 33 3 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Ribas 8 of 25 32% 5 of 20 0 of 1 3 of 4 7 of 21 1 of 4 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 20 of 34 58% 15 of 27 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 19 4 of 5 10 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas but is split between brain and gut. He notes Ribas is well-rounded with solid takedown defense and striking, while Tabatha Ricci has abandoned her grappling for boxing due to her boyfriend's influence. He believes Ricci's new style is ineffective and Ribas is the better fighter, but acknowledges Ricci's pressure and cardio could cause an upset.

"Ultimately, the pick is going to be Amanda because the reality is while Amanda made a couple of mistakes in her last fight, she is the absolute type of person to feel bad for herself for about five minutes, pick …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Big Brady picks Amanda Ribas, believing she is the better striker and grappler. He notes Ribas has a reach advantage and a positive striking differential, while Ricci has low volume and a very short reach. He acknowledges Ribas has chin issues but thinks Ricci lacks power to exploit it. He predicts a decision win.

decision
"I got to go with Heboss here. I think she's just a little bit better everywhere."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Connor also picks Ricci, emphasizing that Ribas is a reactive fighter who lets opponents dictate the fight. He notes that Ricci has a simple but effective game plan of aggression and pressure, which has worked against similar fighters. Connor points out that Ribas's defensive flaws and tendency to jump away make her vulnerable to Ricci's forward movement.

"I think I'll pick Richie. It's just I know what she's gonna show up looking like and it is... a fighter that he was at her best can beat... But I do know how rich he's going to show up."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Both women are flaky, but Ricci has the ability to work through Ribas's unflashy striking game and could even land takedowns to grind out a decision win.

Ricci by decision
"I think Richi has the ability to work through that unflashy game of Hebos in the striking room. And I think Richi could even land some takedowns to grind Hebos out. So, I'm going to go Reichi and Reichi by …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci despite acknowledging she has been 'gifted' decisions in the past. He notes Ribas's chinny nature and recent submission loss, but is hesitant because Ricci's wins are often controversial. He predicts a close 29-28 decision, possibly a robbery, in Ricci's favor.

"I'm going with Taba Richie to get this one done. She's an industry plant. ... Robbery 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Zane picks Ricci, citing her consistent aggression and game plan compared to Ribas's reactive style. He notes that Ribas struggles against fighters who press forward with a clear plan, and Ricci's power-based pressure could overwhelm her. Zane acknowledges that Ribas is more dynamic and could hurt Ricci, but trusts Ricci's known approach over Ribas's inconsistency.

"I think I'll pick Richie. It's just I know what she's gonna show up looking like and it is... a fighter that he was at her best can beat... But I do know how rich he's going to show up."
LOSS vs Yan Xiaonan
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yan Xiaonan 0 78 of 161 48% 89 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 15 of 103 14% 17 of 106 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yan Xiaonan 0 16 of 40 40% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 0 of 13 0% 0 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Yan Xiaonan 0 25 of 54 46% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 8 of 30 26% 10 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
3 Yan Xiaonan 0 37 of 67 55% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tabatha Ricci 0 7 of 60 11% 7 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yan Xiaonan 78 of 161 48% 45 of 118 25 of 34 8 of 9 77 of 159 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 15 of 103 14% 8 of 85 1 of 4 6 of 14 15 of 101 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yan Xiaonan 16 of 40 40% 5 of 25 7 of 11 4 of 4 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 0 of 13 0% 0 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yan Xiaonan 25 of 54 46% 16 of 40 7 of 11 2 of 3 25 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 8 of 30 26% 3 of 21 1 of 3 4 of 6 8 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Yan Xiaonan 37 of 67 55% 24 of 53 11 of 12 2 of 2 36 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 7 of 60 11% 5 of 52 0 of 1 2 of 7 7 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Angelo picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her boxing and technical striking. He acknowledges Tabatha Ricci's pressure and cardio but believes Yan's skills and takedown defense will prevail. He suggests the over 2.5 rounds is a good bet.

over two and a half rounds is good as gold
"Yan is going to be the pick tabi his pressure can obviously winner round winner a couple of rounds so the over two and a half to plus three and a half good as gold"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci with little confidence. He thinks the odds are off and that Yan Xiaonan's takedown defense is questionable, recalling the Carla Esparza loss where Yan was easily taken down. If Ricci can get takedowns, she can win minutes on top. Even on the feet, Ricci can push Yan against the cage and burn clock. Brady sees a path for Ricci to win by decision but is not confident.

"I'm going to pick re with like little to no confidence just because I feel like two takedowns in this fight could be could be a win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci as a live underdog, arguing that Yan's takedown defense is suspect and Ricci's grappling is elite. He notes that Ricci has taken down multiple black belts and that Yan was exposed by Carla Esparza's wrestling. He believes Ricci can get takedowns, control top position, and grind out a decision or even a submission. He likes Ricci by decision at plus money.

Ricci by decision
"I see a world where Yan couldn't win too sure but at minus 200 I I don't want to live in that world I want to live in the one where tab the REI scores here as an underdog"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Connor also picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's boxing is far superior and that Ricci's grappling, while strong, may not be effective against a bigger, high-output striker. He notes that Ricci's top game is static and she struggles to finish, so Yan can survive takedowns and win on the feet. Connor agrees that the three-round format helps Ricci but still favors Yan.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think I'm gonna pick Yan as well, but that certainly makes it difficult. I think it should be a close odds kind of fight, but I will take Yan Xiaonan mostly because I don't trust Ricci's process."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Vreeland is a long-time Yan Xiaonan backer and continues the trend here. He sees a big size and striking advantage for Yan, noting Ricci's janky striking and poor top control. He references Ricci's inability to hold down Angela Hill and believes Yan's improved takedown defense and toughness will allow her to get back up. He expects Yan to light Ricci up on the feet and win decisively.

"I'm going right back to Yan xan and let me explain to you exactly why"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

James leans towards Yan Xiaonan as the better striker, but is cautious due to Yan coming off a brutal loss and Ricci's improving grappling. He expects Yan to win a 29-28 decision on damage, but considers it a pass fight with no strong betting opinion.

"I feel like Yan Janam will win it on damage maybe 2928"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 22, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Ricci's ability to mix it up in the clinch with takedowns and her comfort in striking will allow her to put together a better body of work over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards, pulling off the upset.

"I do believe Rei's ability to mix it up in the clinch maybe even with a few takedowns and her comfortability in the Striking room will allow her to put together a m much better uh body of work over …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Paul picks Yan Xiaonan but is hesitant, noting that Ricci has a path to victory via takedowns and control. He thinks Yan's striking power and ferocity will be the difference, but she must stay off her back and get up immediately if taken down. He expects a close fight that goes to decision and could see a split.

"I think it's a rightful favorite as long as she comes back from a very significant beating... xan with the the more uh devastating punches will be the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

The MMA Guru picks Yan Xiaonan over Tabatha Ricci, citing Yan's better boxing, range control, and size advantage. He notes Yan has fought top competition, including a decision loss to Zhang Weili where she dropped Zhang, and wins over Jessica Andrade and Mackenzie Dern. He believes Ricci's 'bunder' won't sway judges in China. He predicts a decision win for Yan.

decision win
"I'm gonna go Yan xiaan getting this one done by decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Zane picks Yan Xiaonan, citing her superior striking volume, technique, and power. He acknowledges Ricci's improved boxing and strong double-leg takedown, but doubts Ricci's ability to control Yan on the ground due to size and static top game. Zane also notes that the three-round format helps Ricci, but Yan's striking advantage should carry her if she avoids being controlled for two rounds.

Yan opened -196, now -190; Ricci opened +172, now +167.
"I think I'm gonna pick Yan as well, but that certainly makes it difficult. I think it should be a close odds kind of fight, but I will take Yan Xiaonan mostly because I don't trust Ricci's process."
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 112 of 216 51% 140 of 245 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Angela Hill 0 101 of 239 42% 140 of 280 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 21 of 47 44% 35 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Angela Hill 0 27 of 62 43% 42 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:07
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 44 of 79 55% 51 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Angela Hill 0 35 of 76 46% 44 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:58
3 Tabatha Ricci 0 47 of 90 52% 54 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Angela Hill 0 39 of 101 38% 54 of 116 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 112 of 216 51% 66 of 152 43 of 61 3 of 3 88 of 182 19 of 26 5 of 8
Angela Hill 101 of 239 42% 82 of 215 8 of 13 11 of 11 88 of 219 10 of 14 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 21 of 47 44% 10 of 34 11 of 13 0 of 0 14 of 37 7 of 10 0 of 0
Angela Hill 27 of 62 43% 18 of 52 4 of 5 5 of 5 20 of 53 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Tabatha Ricci 44 of 79 55% 27 of 52 14 of 24 3 of 3 32 of 62 8 of 10 4 of 7
Angela Hill 35 of 76 46% 29 of 67 2 of 5 4 of 4 31 of 68 1 of 2 3 of 6
3 Tabatha Ricci 47 of 90 52% 29 of 66 18 of 24 0 of 0 42 of 83 4 of 6 1 of 1
Angela Hill 39 of 101 38% 35 of 96 2 of 3 2 of 2 37 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ricci (-112), Hill (-108)

Round 1
While Magny-Morales was one “passing of the torch” match, this co-main event is set up to be one as well. At the tender age of 39, Hill (17-13, 12-13 UFC) has won four of five and is trying to make one final push to get into top contention at 115 pounds. Ricci (10-2, 5-2 UFC) saw her own momentum fall away after a close loss last year, but a razor-close victory in May got her back in the win column. While the two are on the outer edge of the top 10, it is a must-win encounter for either woman. Referee Keith Peterson serves as the official for the nonsense-free strawweight tilt, and the ladies have no interest in touching gloves. Ricci marches forward and gets caught with a right hand early, and she pushes in to tie Hill up against the fence. Hill uses her elbow to try to frame off, and Ricci gets her underhooks in pursuit of a body lock takedown. Hill uses knees to fight her way out, and she eats a right hand on the outside. Ricci blasts forward to attack, landing a few shots, and Hill lands one back before they clinch up again. Ricci tries for another takedown, but Hill stands her up as they trade knees. The two break, and Hill pushes off a front kick when she gets space. Ricci connects at the end of a right hand, and she lands a second and ducks under a Hill counter to change levels. Hill defends it and breaks free, but not before absorbing a flush knee to the breadbasket. Both ladies land one big right hand, and Ricci resets and races at her, attacking with a tornado of offense. Hill responds and pushes her away, and she ducks down to smack “Baby Shark” with an overhand right. Ricci blitzes once more, and Hill is out of harm’s way in time. Ricci lands a low kick and punches her way in, although Hill strafes to the side to disrupt the forward momentum. Ricci nonetheless runs straight at her to the her up, ignoring a knee up the middle to try for something. Hill stops a takedown before it materializes and separates. Hill sneaks a right hand around a jab, and she spins with an elbow but Ricci is out of range. Hill targets the body with three punches, and Ricci walks her down and tries to slug it out. Hill hits her back and decides to initiate the clinch, and they jockey for position while Hill tries for her own trip takedown. Ricci stifles it and gets kneed in the belly, and Hill targets the same spot with another as they split apart. They let frantic hands fly right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ricci

Round 2
Ricci pushes the pace right out of her corner, not slowing down even when Hill punches her in the face. Ricci uses her momentum to sling Hill to the mat, and she drops down fierce hammerfists and is drilled with an upkick. Ricci lowers herself down, and Hill sets up a triangle choke to keep her honest. When Ricci backs off, Hill powers her way back to her feet, and Ricci is quick to jam her up against the fencing. Hill turns her about and breaks free, tossing out a head kick that is nowhere near the target. Ricci gathers a head of steam and rushes forward, and Hill backs her off with a short combination ending with a body kick. Ricci lands two punches, Hill scores back, and Ricci is right there to keep the pressure on. Ricci looks for an up-elbow as she throws everything at her opponent, and Hill catches her with a right hand and ducks down to grab hold of her lead leg to take her off-balance. Hill catches a kick to drag Ricci to the wall, but she cannot hold it. Hill targets the body with a knee, and when Ricci backs off, Hill kicks her in the ribs. Ricci sprints into clinch range, and Hill lines up a Thai clinch to knee her in the midsection. Hill breaks off with a body kick, and she jabs and leans to avoid a knee flying at her melon. Ricci scores a one-two, and Hill responds with a push kick. A leaping elbow strike from Ricci brushes off the guard, and the two are mixing it up and not letting either get an upper hand. Hill drops down and comes up with a right hand, and Ricci stands right in front of her and bops her with an uppercut. Hill sits down on a hard right hand, and Ricci answers her back immediately. Hill connects with another clean right, and Ricci wants to slug it out until she shoots in for a single and hits it. Hill ties her up with a one-armed guillotine until Ricci is able to wrench her neck out. Ricci sits up, and Hill hacks with elbows. Ricci gets pushed off with upkicks, and the two meet in the clinch and start blasting one another like Frye vs. Takayama until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 3
The two women come out firing immediately, with Ricci running into the melee. Hill drills her with a spinning elbow, forcing Ricci to take a back step. Ricci takes a quick count of her teeth and throws back, with Hill answering and reddening her nose up with more powerful strikes. Ricci targets the body with a kick, and Hill comes over the top with a right hand and tries for an up-elbow. Hill shoots for a takedown, and Ricci turns her around and puts Hill on her seat. Hill kicks off Ricci’s chest to send Ricci flying, and they both get back up. Ricci plods forward, and Hill stands right in the pocket and trades until Ricci’s forward movement results in a clinch. Ricci slows things down as she stomps Hill’s toes and offers the occasional knee, and Hill knees her back until they split up. Ricci beats Hill to the punch in an exchange, and Hill appears to be slowing while Ricci is just as amped up as ever. Hill buzzes the hair with a spinning elbow, and she drives a right hand on the chin and a front kick. Ricci crashes forward to strike, and Hill intercepts her with an uppercut and backs off to take a breath. Hill eats a left hand and counters, and she kicks Ricci in the ribs. Ricci lands a head shot and then one to the body, and Hill kicks her in the guts. Ricci shoots for a low double, and Hill defends and latches onto Ricci’s neck. Ricci pulls her head out of danger, and Hill kicks her in the ribs. Even with Hill appearing winded, she still outlands Ricci and draws some blood with her fists. Hill kicks the body and then spins with an elbow that grazes the cheek. Ricci scores a single leg kick, and she follows it with a one-two. Hill throws back, knocking Ricci back with a hard right hand and uppercuts Ricci in the chin for good measure. Hill jumps forward with a knee, and as Ricci rushes at her, Hill knees her twice more. Ricci backs off, and Hill kicks her a few more times until this wild and crazy strawweight scrap comes to a close. It’s anyone’s guess who will get their hand raised after that frenetic 15-minute fracas.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Ricci)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)

The Official Result
Tabatha Ricci def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Angelo picks Angela Hill, citing her veteran savvy, length, cardio, and experience. He notes that Hill has found a late-career resurgence at 39 and is a high-IQ striker who can avoid takedowns and exploit rookie mistakes. He mentions that Ricci went 1-for-10 on takedowns in her last fight and was outstruck, but judges favored her pressure. He thinks Hill can steal a decision and recommends the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"Angela Hill is going to be the pick the over two and a half is probably good here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci because of her youth, athleticism, and superior grappling. He believes she can take Hill down and control the fight, as Hill is not as elusive as other grapplers Ricci has faced. He notes Ricci's path to victory is clear: mix in takedowns and control time. He also mentions that Hill is 39 and may not have the same durability.

Tabatha Ricci by decision
"I'm going go with tabii if I want to try to move it over to a little plus money I would take tabichi by decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Daniel Vreeland picks Tabatha Ricci but is not confident due to inconsistent judging. He notes Ricci's improving volume and jiu-jitsu advantage, while Hill has been on a resurgence. He thinks Ricci might win by split decision or submission, but acknowledges the fight could be a robbery.

submission
"I'll go Tabitha here but could be a split it could be a sub it could be a robbery"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Brevin picks Angela Hill, noting she has entered her prime at 39 with sharp striking and improved grappling. He thinks her length and volume will be key. He acknowledges Ricci's grappling advantage but believes Hill can defend takedowns and win on the feet. JP disagrees, picking Ricci by decision, citing Hill's 12-13 UFC record and age. He thinks Ricci's grappling, though not submission-heavy, will be enough, and notes Hill goes to decision often but doesn't win dominantly.

over 1.5 rounds, fight goes distance
"I think I'm gonna take Angela Hill in this one um I think it's a pick him right now but I'm going with the striker over the grappler give me Andre Hill"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Paul leans towards Hill because of her high volume striking and improved grappling. He thinks Hill can outwork Ricci on the feet and avoid takedowns. He notes the fight is a coin flip but sides with the steam on Hill. He also mentions that Hill's experience and recent submission win show her grappling improvements.

"I side with the steam I think that um that Angela Hill can put up super volume and we have seen at least massive improvements in the grapple game"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill because he thinks she is a much better fighter than Tabatha Ricci. He worries about Ricci holding her down but believes Hill's striking and experience will prevail. He notes Hill's recent win over Denise Gomes and expects a decision victory.

decision
"I think Angela Hill is a way better fighter than taba for Richie um so I'll go with Angela Hill"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 54 of 143 37% 94 of 186 1 of 10 10% 0 0 5:15
Tecia Pennington 0 80 of 219 36% 92 of 231 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 25 of 76 32% 26 of 77 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:07
Tecia Pennington 0 42 of 107 39% 47 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 10 of 27 37% 32 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:01
Tecia Pennington 0 15 of 47 31% 21 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tabatha Ricci 0 19 of 40 47% 36 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:07
Tecia Pennington 0 23 of 65 35% 24 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 54 of 143 37% 32 of 105 9 of 19 13 of 19 48 of 135 6 of 8 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 80 of 219 36% 64 of 194 6 of 14 10 of 11 70 of 193 10 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 25 of 76 32% 12 of 52 5 of 11 8 of 13 23 of 72 2 of 4 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 42 of 107 39% 32 of 93 4 of 8 6 of 6 36 of 94 6 of 13 0 of 0
2 Tabatha Ricci 10 of 27 37% 7 of 22 1 of 2 2 of 3 10 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 15 of 47 31% 11 of 41 0 of 1 4 of 5 13 of 39 2 of 8 0 of 0
3 Tabatha Ricci 19 of 40 47% 13 of 31 3 of 6 3 of 3 15 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 23 of 65 35% 21 of 60 2 of 5 0 of 0 21 of 60 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci because he doubts Tecia Pennington will be the same fighter after having a baby and a two-year layoff. He notes Ricci's relentless takedowns and top pressure, and that she has beaten good grapplers. He acknowledges Pennington's well-rounded skills but thinks the layoff and motherhood are too big a question mark.

"I got to go with thei here she's a very tiny slight favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington (Torres) for the upset, despite acknowledging red flags like her two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Torres has the better striking and volume, and that even if Ricci takes her down, Torres has a good get-up game and is physically strong. He notes Ricci's path to victory is getting takedowns, but she failed to do so in losses to Fiorot and Lupi. He expects the fight to primarily take place standing, favoring Torres.

"I like Torres to win um there's a ton of red flags on her side I'm fully aware of that um but as far as a pick goes because I got to make a pick I'm taking Torres for the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Cody picks Pennington but is leaning, not confident. He notes that Pennington (formerly Torres) has a history of high volume and has fought the best, but she is coming off a layoff and a loss. He thinks her volume and takedown defense will be key, and she can outwork Ricci on the feet. However, he acknowledges it's a coin flip and wishes for better plus money.

"I wish I had better plus money on TSH t i really wish I do but slight plus money I think it's plus 110"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Daniel Vreeland picks Tabatha Ricci, but hesitantly. He notes that Tecia Pennington is the better fighter on her best day, but she is coming off a pregnancy, which often leads to a drop in performance. He also questions Ricci's level but thinks the pregnancy factor gives Ricci the edge. He acknowledges it could go either way.

"I'm G pick Tabitha because she's not the one coming off a baby she is the one with a little momentum but it would not surprise me if Tisha won this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host picks Pennington due to her takedown defense and striking speed, which should keep the fight upright and cause Ricci problems. He notes the long layoff after childbirth as a concern but thinks the stylistic matchup favors her. He would only bet if the line moves to +150, indicating a lean rather than a confident play.

Would only bet if line reaches +150 range
"I'm going to go with Pennington here Pennington by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, citing her volume and experience. He notes that Ricci's striking is stiff and she relies on takedowns, but Pennington has good takedown defense. Paul thinks Pennington can outwork Ricci in a competitive decision. However, he is not confident and calls it a coin flip.

"Pennington will be the pick but it's a coin flip bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Tecia Pennington (formerly Torres) as an underdog over Tabatha Ricci. He criticizes Ricci's standup as 'atrocious' and notes that Ricci only wins when she gets takedowns, which Pennington's wrestling background should prevent. He highlights Pennington's ability to avoid being held down and her superior striking, predicting a clear decision win.

"I'm going Tisha Pennington here as the underdog... 90% of people are picking Tabitha Rich here I think her stand Up's atrocious."
LOSS vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loopy Godinez 0 84 of 224 37% 91 of 232 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:22
Tabatha Ricci 0 98 of 221 44% 101 of 225 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loopy Godinez 0 22 of 61 36% 24 of 64 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:51
Tabatha Ricci 0 23 of 73 31% 23 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Loopy Godinez 0 31 of 90 34% 32 of 91 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
Tabatha Ricci 0 36 of 72 50% 38 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Loopy Godinez 0 31 of 73 42% 35 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Tabatha Ricci 0 39 of 76 51% 40 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loopy Godinez 84 of 224 37% 68 of 197 8 of 11 8 of 16 78 of 218 4 of 4 2 of 2
Tabatha Ricci 98 of 221 44% 81 of 200 15 of 19 2 of 2 85 of 207 11 of 12 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loopy Godinez 22 of 61 36% 17 of 50 3 of 3 2 of 8 20 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 23 of 73 31% 18 of 67 5 of 6 0 of 0 19 of 69 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Loopy Godinez 31 of 90 34% 24 of 80 3 of 5 4 of 5 29 of 88 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tabatha Ricci 36 of 72 50% 29 of 63 6 of 8 1 of 1 32 of 67 2 of 3 2 of 2
3 Loopy Godinez 31 of 73 42% 27 of 67 2 of 3 2 of 3 29 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tabatha Ricci 39 of 76 51% 34 of 70 4 of 5 1 of 1 34 of 71 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Angelo picks Godinez, emphasizing her wrestling and size advantage. He criticizes Ricci's striking and takedowns, believing Godinez can defend takedowns and win on the feet. He is not insanely confident but thinks Godinez gets it done.

"I think lupy ginz wins this fight... she's going to be the pick here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez by decision. He believes Godinez is the better striker with good volume and power, and also the better wrestler with strong takedown defense. He thinks Godinez can dictate where the fight takes place and win striking exchanges even if she doesn't wrestle. He notes Godinez's past fight IQ issues but doesn't think they'll matter here.

Godinez by decision
"I like Loopy here... give me Loopy Godinez and Loopy Godinez by decision for the simp pick of the week."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody picks Godinez, citing her boxing volume, pressure, and improved ring IQ. He notes she has size and strength advantages, and that Ricci's wrestling likely won't be enough. He thinks Godinez wins on volume and pressure, though he's not confident enough to bet heavily.

"godz wins so the only thing that's crazy about this card this week is like I like onz I also like Mackenzie D so it's like how could this possibly go wrong"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Godinez's wrestling background should allow her to keep the fight upright where she has the striking advantage. Ricci will need to take it to the ground to have success, but Godinez can control where the fight takes place. The line has moved from -120/-130 to -170, which makes sense, but he would prefer a better line around -130 to bet. Prediction is Godinez by decision.

"my prediction is going to be Lupita ginz and I think she wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul agrees, noting Godinez's striking advantage and that Ricci's wrestling will be negated. He thinks Godinez will win on volume, though he acknowledges the New York commission can be unpredictable. He sees Godinez as the rightful favorite.

"I kind of think that this fight the wrestling's going to basically be negated and ly's going to win on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez, citing her advantage in standup and aggression. He thinks Godinez will force a high pace that Ricci is not comfortable with, and notes that Godinez is tough and throws punches like a man. He predicts a decision win for Godinez.

by decision
"I'm going to go with Lupita ginz here... I think Lupa godinez is aggressiveness and willingness to lead the dance is what's going to get her the advantage here"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 100 of 315 31% 101 of 318 3 of 8 37% 0 0 0:38
Gillian Robertson 0 76 of 219 34% 78 of 225 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 29 of 80 36% 30 of 81 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:30
Gillian Robertson 0 12 of 48 25% 14 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 31 of 114 27% 31 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
Gillian Robertson 0 36 of 86 41% 36 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tabatha Ricci 0 40 of 121 33% 40 of 122 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 28 of 85 32% 28 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 100 of 315 31% 59 of 257 17 of 25 24 of 33 95 of 306 3 of 7 2 of 2
Gillian Robertson 76 of 219 34% 31 of 150 24 of 40 21 of 29 74 of 212 2 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 29 of 80 36% 17 of 60 2 of 6 10 of 14 27 of 77 0 of 1 2 of 2
Gillian Robertson 12 of 48 25% 4 of 34 4 of 9 4 of 5 12 of 46 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Tabatha Ricci 31 of 114 27% 16 of 94 8 of 10 7 of 10 31 of 112 0 of 2 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 36 of 86 41% 14 of 56 9 of 12 13 of 18 35 of 83 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Tabatha Ricci 40 of 121 33% 26 of 103 7 of 9 7 of 9 37 of 117 3 of 4 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 28 of 85 32% 13 of 60 11 of 19 4 of 6 27 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her strength, pressure, and superior grappling. He believes Ricci is too strong for Gillian Robertson to take down and will be the better grappler on the ground. He has half a unit on Ricci at -121 and notes the line has yo-yoed. He sees Ricci as the next evolution of the wrestle-boxer style.

half unit on Tabatha Ricci at -121
"I just like Tabitha Ricci to get it done I have half a unit on her at minus 121"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady leans towards Tabatha Ricci, believing she will be the better wrestler and striker. He notes Robertson's poor takedown defense (25%) and tendency to accept being on her back. He thinks Ricci's Judo background and BJJ black belt will allow her to get takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win but acknowledges it could go either way.

"I'll say Tabitha Richie grinds this one out and wins a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her size and strength advantage. He notes her grappling credentials but acknowledges her struggles against good wrestlers. He thinks the plus money is worth it and expects a close fight.

"I'll take the plus money on whoever it is and it's Tabitha Richie so I'm taking the plus money is on Jillian Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Connor picks Ricci because she is strong, an excellent grappler, and increasingly comfortable on the feet. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Connor also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.

"I got to pick Ricci just to be able to dart in and land big right hands. And hit double legs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Daniel Levi picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her ability to keep the fight standing or wrestle in reverse. He notes Robertson's submission threat but thinks Ricci's jiu-jitsu and physicality can neutralize it. He believes Ricci has more paths to victory and can survive on the ground if needed.

"I just I just see more paths for Richie"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The host picks Tabatha Ricci to win by decision. He believes Ricci is a superior grappler and wrestler who will get top position and control Robertson. He notes Robertson's tendency to play off her back and thinks Ricci will be too privy to her submission attempts. He expects Ricci to dominate the fight with top control and win a decision.

"I think that Tabitha Richie will shut all of that down I think she is a superior Grappler"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul picks Ricci, citing her striking advantage and top control. He notes her training with Mackenzie Dern and thinks she can avoid Robertson's submissions. He mentions he already bet Ricci at -125.

"I've got yeah minus 125 Tabitha Ricci."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson over the majority pick Tabatha Ricci. He believes Robertson's length and reach advantage will allow her to lead the dance, and she does more damage on the ground with ground and pound. He thinks both are grapplers but Robertson's aggression and experience will win her a split decision based on damage.

Predicts split decision win.
"I'm actually gonna go with Jillian Robertson here over Tabitha for Richie"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Ricci. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Zane also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.

"I think I'm with you. I just think Julian Robertson's wind condition is very narrow, like she has to be able to out wrestle somebody because she has to get on top of them."
WIN vs Jessica Penne
Submission (armbar) R2 2:14 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 6 of 25 24% 19 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 36 of 54 66% 81 of 109 4 of 5 80% 1 0 5:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 3 of 13 23% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 26 of 39 66% 62 of 83 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:54
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 26 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 6 of 25 24% 4 of 20 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jessica Penne 36 of 54 66% 19 of 35 2 of 2 15 of 17 15 of 32 2 of 2 19 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 3 of 13 23% 2 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jessica Penne 26 of 39 66% 13 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 12 9 of 22 1 of 1 16 of 16
2 Tabatha Ricci 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 10 of 15 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo is confident in Tabatha Ricci, citing her strong grappling, top pressure, and submission skills. He notes that Jessica Penne has only 40% takedown defense and that Ricci should dominate with her wrestling. Angelo bet 1.5 units on Ricci at -240.

"Tabitha Ricci is a very good Grappler always looking for submissions she doesn't sacrifice position or chase either she's very heavy on top good pressure good control"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci, noting her ability to dictate where the fight takes place with her wrestling and judo. He mentions Penne's poor takedown defense (40%) and that Ricci can safely grapple without getting caught in submissions. He predicts a decision win for Ricci, with the fight primarily on the mat.

"I'm gonna take Richie to win this fight I'm gonna take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci, citing her youth, judo, and well-rounded game. He thinks Penne is too old and has been off for four years. He expects Ricci to win by decision or submission.

Tabatha Ricci by decision
"tab the reach you have to reach you by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Connor picks Tabatha Ricci, though he is not confident. He notes that Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt and will likely take the fight to the ground, where Penne is actually good. However, he thinks Ricci's aggression and functional grappling will allow her to win positions and avoid being submitted. Connor admits the fight is hard to analyze and could go either way.

"I guess I got to take Ricci because I just don't see the fact that she's gonna go into the only place where penne is actually good as like a death sentence for her."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Jacob agrees with Angelo, comparing this fight to Ricci's previous win over Polyana Viana. He believes Penne is a step down in competition and that Ricci will dominate with her pressure and top control. Jacob is fully confident in Ricci.

"I think that this is going to be honestly a carbon copy of that Pollyanna Vienna fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt with good wrestling and control time. Penne is 40, has poor striking, and relies on dragging fights to the ground, but Ricci will likely be on top and avoid submissions. Ricci grinds out a decision victory.

"I think this is a great stylistic matchup for Tabitha Richie... I think penny is more than likely going to be fighting off of her back for the majority of this matchup and I just don't think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ricci. He notes the line has moved from -175 to -325, indicating sharp money. He thinks Ricci's grappling and youth will be too much for Penne.

"they've tightened up that number to stay away from maybe Richie's to pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, citing Jessica Penne's age (40) and Ricci's grappling advantage. He expects Ricci to control top position and win a split decision, noting that women's MMA judging often favors control time.

"I'm gonna trust in taba for Richie... I think she's going to be able to get down Jessica Penney and sort of like ride out top position."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Zane also picks Ricci, agreeing that her functional aggression and grappling will be enough to overcome Penne's awkward style. He notes that Penne's striking is robotic and she struggles with range, while Ricci will close the distance and make it a grappling match. Zane thinks Ricci's speed and confidence give her an edge, but he is not fully convinced.

"I think I'll pick Ricci too just because I think she's gonna fight with you know a functional aggression that will get her into good positions."
Jessica Penne - Fight History
LOSS vs Elise Reed
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elise Reed 0 54 of 125 43% 98 of 174 1 of 13 7% 0 0 3:16
Jessica Penne 0 117 of 188 62% 229 of 306 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elise Reed 0 19 of 33 57% 51 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:49
Jessica Penne 0 6 of 17 35% 105 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Elise Reed 0 18 of 42 42% 26 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:27
Jessica Penne 0 44 of 70 62% 56 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Elise Reed 0 17 of 50 34% 21 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 67 of 101 66% 68 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elise Reed 54 of 125 43% 26 of 89 18 of 25 10 of 11 44 of 112 10 of 13 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 117 of 188 62% 84 of 145 18 of 19 15 of 24 110 of 181 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elise Reed 19 of 33 57% 7 of 20 9 of 9 3 of 4 14 of 28 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 6 of 17 35% 0 of 10 2 of 2 4 of 5 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Elise Reed 18 of 42 42% 7 of 28 5 of 8 6 of 6 14 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 44 of 70 62% 31 of 50 8 of 8 5 of 12 39 of 65 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Elise Reed 17 of 50 34% 12 of 41 4 of 8 1 of 1 16 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 67 of 101 66% 53 of 85 8 of 9 6 of 7 66 of 100 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Angelo picks Elise Reed because he believes Jessica Penne, at 41 years old and coming off a disinterested performance, is not fully committed to fighting anymore. He notes Reed's busy striking, good cardio, and inconsistency but thinks she is the hungrier fighter. He sees value at -150 and also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet. He speculates Penne is more focused on her post-fighting career and won't have the same drive.

over 2.5 rounds
"Elise Reed wins this fight she's the pick minus 150 seems like decent value"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jessica Penne

Big Brady picks Jessica Penne by first-round submission. He highlights Reed's terrible ground game, with four submission losses, and Penne's BJJ black belt. He notes Penne is 41 and coming off a layoff, but if she gets the fight to the mat, she will submit Reed. He is surprised Reed is favored.

first round submission
"I'll take the dog here and Jessica pen to get the fight down to the ground and get a sub in the first round so Jessica pen a first round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elise Reed

Connor picks Reed, though he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Reed has natural power and can crack, and that she has been able to win fights despite her flaws. He acknowledges that Reed often stops fighting after hurting opponents, but thinks she might be able to knock Penne out or do enough to win.

"I think I would pick Reed in this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Reed is a striker and can keep the fight upright enough to batter Penne and win on the scorecards. However, Penne winning by submission at +500 is a tempting sprinkle, as it could take just one back take or takedown for Penne to utilize her jiu-jitsu advantage. The official prediction is Reed by decision.

Penne by submission at +500 (sprinkle)
"I do lean with the striker as I do think Reed can keep this fight upright enough for her to batter a pen and win this fight on the scorecards although a pen to win by submission at plus 500 …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jessica Penne

The Guru initially does not want to pick Jessica Penne due to her age (41) and recent losses, but after considering that Elise Reed is 'garbage' and Penne is taller and rangier, he decides to take the underdog. He admits he doesn't normally check odds beforehand but notes Penne is an underdog and goes with her.

"I'm gonna go with Jessica pen we move on"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Zane picks Penne because he believes Reed will not be consistent enough to keep Penne at range. He notes that Reed has a tendency to stop fighting after landing a big shot, and that Penne is hittable and predictable, but Reed doesn't have the footwork to stay away. He thinks Penne will eventually tangle up with Reed and get the grappling exchange she wants.

Penne opened at +137, now +152; Reed opened at -153, now -172. Zane says you should not be betting on Elise Reed.
"I think I will take Penne actually."
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
Submission (armbar) R2 2:14 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 6 of 25 24% 19 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 36 of 54 66% 81 of 109 4 of 5 80% 1 0 5:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 3 of 13 23% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 26 of 39 66% 62 of 83 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:54
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 10 of 15 66% 19 of 26 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 6 of 25 24% 4 of 20 2 of 4 0 of 1 4 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jessica Penne 36 of 54 66% 19 of 35 2 of 2 15 of 17 15 of 32 2 of 2 19 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 3 of 13 23% 2 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jessica Penne 26 of 39 66% 13 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 12 9 of 22 1 of 1 16 of 16
2 Tabatha Ricci 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 10 of 15 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo is confident in Tabatha Ricci, citing her strong grappling, top pressure, and submission skills. He notes that Jessica Penne has only 40% takedown defense and that Ricci should dominate with her wrestling. Angelo bet 1.5 units on Ricci at -240.

"Tabitha Ricci is a very good Grappler always looking for submissions she doesn't sacrifice position or chase either she's very heavy on top good pressure good control"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci, noting her ability to dictate where the fight takes place with her wrestling and judo. He mentions Penne's poor takedown defense (40%) and that Ricci can safely grapple without getting caught in submissions. He predicts a decision win for Ricci, with the fight primarily on the mat.

"I'm gonna take Richie to win this fight I'm gonna take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci, citing her youth, judo, and well-rounded game. He thinks Penne is too old and has been off for four years. He expects Ricci to win by decision or submission.

Tabatha Ricci by decision
"tab the reach you have to reach you by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Connor picks Tabatha Ricci, though he is not confident. He notes that Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt and will likely take the fight to the ground, where Penne is actually good. However, he thinks Ricci's aggression and functional grappling will allow her to win positions and avoid being submitted. Connor admits the fight is hard to analyze and could go either way.

"I guess I got to take Ricci because I just don't see the fact that she's gonna go into the only place where penne is actually good as like a death sentence for her."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Jacob agrees with Angelo, comparing this fight to Ricci's previous win over Polyana Viana. He believes Penne is a step down in competition and that Ricci will dominate with her pressure and top control. Jacob is fully confident in Ricci.

"I think that this is going to be honestly a carbon copy of that Pollyanna Vienna fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt with good wrestling and control time. Penne is 40, has poor striking, and relies on dragging fights to the ground, but Ricci will likely be on top and avoid submissions. Ricci grinds out a decision victory.

"I think this is a great stylistic matchup for Tabitha Richie... I think penny is more than likely going to be fighting off of her back for the majority of this matchup and I just don't think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ricci. He notes the line has moved from -175 to -325, indicating sharp money. He thinks Ricci's grappling and youth will be too much for Penne.

"they've tightened up that number to stay away from maybe Richie's to pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, citing Jessica Penne's age (40) and Ricci's grappling advantage. He expects Ricci to control top position and win a split decision, noting that women's MMA judging often favors control time.

"I'm gonna trust in taba for Richie... I think she's going to be able to get down Jessica Penney and sort of like ride out top position."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Zane also picks Ricci, agreeing that her functional aggression and grappling will be enough to overcome Penne's awkward style. He notes that Penne's striking is robotic and she struggles with range, while Ricci will close the distance and make it a grappling match. Zane thinks Ricci's speed and confidence give her an edge, but he is not fully convinced.

"I think I'll pick Ricci too just because I think she's gonna fight with you know a functional aggression that will get her into good positions."
LOSS vs Emily Ducote
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Emily Ducote 0 63 of 244 25% 68 of 249 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 116 of 205 56% 117 of 206 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Emily Ducote 0 17 of 67 25% 20 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 35 of 58 60% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Emily Ducote 0 26 of 88 29% 28 of 90 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 37 of 73 50% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Emily Ducote 0 20 of 89 22% 20 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 44 of 74 59% 44 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Emily Ducote 63 of 244 25% 37 of 208 26 of 36 0 of 0 55 of 234 8 of 10 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 116 of 205 56% 41 of 113 24 of 34 51 of 58 115 of 203 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Emily Ducote 17 of 67 25% 13 of 61 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 35 of 58 60% 13 of 33 10 of 12 12 of 13 35 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Emily Ducote 26 of 88 29% 14 of 72 12 of 16 0 of 0 20 of 80 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 37 of 73 50% 17 of 49 6 of 10 14 of 14 36 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Emily Ducote 20 of 89 22% 10 of 75 10 of 14 0 of 0 20 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 44 of 74 59% 11 of 31 8 of 12 25 of 31 44 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Angelo picks Emily Ducote but is hesitant due to a five-week trend of underdogs winning the first fight of the night. He notes Ducote's patient, accurate striking and wrestling, but acknowledges Penne's experience and the risk of a bad decision. He advises against betting on this fight.

advises not to bet on this fight
"emily's the pick but jessica has proven she can beat some really tough women she's going to be live in this fight and that stupid underdog winning the opening fight nonsense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Big Brady picks Emily Ducote to win by decision. He notes that Ducote is 11 years younger, has good takedown defense, and should be the better striker on the feet. He thinks she can stuff Penne's takedowns and outpoint her for three rounds. He warns that if Penne gets the fight to the mat, she could submit Ducote, but he expects Ducote to keep it standing.

"give me to cody to win give me dakota to stop the takedowns and ultimately pick apart jessica penney for a three-round decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Cody is confident in Ducote, citing her wrestling background, BJJ black belt, and well-rounded game. He notes that Penne is 39 and relies on takedowns, but Ducote has the grappling to defend and the striking to win on the feet. He believes Ducote has multiple paths to victory and is a good price at -150.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Daniel Levi leans Emily Ducote, noting she is experienced and has paid her dues. He expects a close fight where Ducote lands better strikes and gets top control, but must be careful of Penne's submissions. He sees it as a dog-or-pass situation and predicts a close decision.

close decision; dog-or-pass
"i'll lean do cody you know edge it out split unanimous whatever close fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

Paul also picks Ducote, agreeing that she is the better fighter in all aspects. He notes her youth, experience, and recent improvements. He believes Penne's magic is running out and that Ducote will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

Jessica Penne under 1.5 takedowns
"i think emily decodey could be a too good to be true price tag in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Emily Ducote

The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Jessica Penne, citing Ducote's power as a key advantage in the women's division. He notes that Ducote finished Danielle Taylor, who beat Penne by decision, and that Penne doesn't know how to fight. He acknowledges the unpredictability of women's MMA but sides with Ducote's power, believing it will impact judges' scorecards even if she is outlanded.

"i'm going to be going with emily de cote here in the early prelim opener i reckon she'll get this one done by 2928 decision over jessica penney"
Submission (armbar) R1 4:32 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.

"Carolina is gonna put an absolute whooping on Penne... she's on a completely different level."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.

"I'm gonna take Carolina here I think it's a solid matchup for her."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.

fight goes to decision
"i will go with karolina kovakiewicz but whereas it should be just like let's hammer this baby home it's like there's buyer beware now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jessica Penne

Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.

"I'll actually slightly lean towards the dog Jessica Penne"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.

Kowalkiewicz by KO/TKO +900; Kowalkiewicz by decision +120
"I do like Carolina here I think she gets a victory out for you know after uh her extended layoff um decision is probably the most likely outcome."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with karolina kovalkovic way more experienced way better technically and i think she'll just outstrike jessica penney to a 30-27 unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Loopy Godinez
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Penne 0 31 of 87 35% 98 of 158 1 of 7 14% 0 0 4:30
Loopy Godinez 0 40 of 74 54% 68 of 106 3 of 9 33% 0 0 4:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Penne 0 15 of 40 37% 27 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Loopy Godinez 0 13 of 31 41% 22 of 41 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:38
2 Jessica Penne 0 13 of 30 43% 24 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:49
Loopy Godinez 0 17 of 24 70% 26 of 33 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:06
3 Jessica Penne 0 3 of 17 17% 47 of 61 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:58
Loopy Godinez 0 10 of 19 52% 20 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Penne 31 of 87 35% 19 of 63 12 of 24 0 of 0 29 of 82 2 of 5 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 40 of 74 54% 31 of 63 7 of 8 2 of 3 37 of 68 3 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Penne 15 of 40 37% 10 of 30 5 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 13 of 31 41% 10 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 2
2 Jessica Penne 13 of 30 43% 7 of 20 6 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 17 of 24 70% 14 of 20 2 of 3 1 of 1 17 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jessica Penne 3 of 17 17% 2 of 13 1 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 10 of 19 52% 7 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by dominant decision. He notes that Penne is 38 years old, hasn't fought in nearly four years, and hasn't won in six years. He believes Godinez has a massive striking advantage and is strong enough to get back up if taken down. He expects Godinez to stuff takedowns and out-strike Penne. He does not see a finish likely as Godinez has no knockout wins and Penne is tough to submit. He considers Godinez a parlay piece but not in his own parlay.

Considered as parlay piece but not used
"i'm gonna take gadina's here to win a pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody is very high on Godinez, praising her boxing, takedown defense, and cardio. He thinks Penne is old (38), has been out for years due to USADA, and has a history of getting hit and bleeding. He expects Godinez to keep the fight standing and win by decision or late TKO. He likes the third round finish prop at 16-1.

Godinez by TKO in round 3 at 16-1, Godinez by knockout
"i think godinez and she's one of your biggest favorites on the card i actually do agree with it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Levi picks Loopy Godinez, noting her crisp hands and toughness. He questions what happens if the fight goes to the mat, as Godinez's competition has been subpar, but believes she will piece up Jessica Penne on the feet. Levi mentions that Penne is nearing 40 and has been through a lot, including a USADA case, and that she has shown hesitancy in recent fights. He expects Godinez to win, possibly by knockout.

possible knockout
"i got lupita for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Manpreet picks Godinez by decision, but with hesitation due to Penne's long layoff and Godinez's unproven level. He believes Godinez's boxing and pressure will overwhelm Penne, who is 38 and has been away for four years. He expects Godinez to out-strike Penne over three rounds, though he notes Penne's submission threat if the fight goes to the ground.

Godinez by decision -115; Godinez by finish in round 3 +1500
"i let godena is here not with the utmost confidence though because i want to see her prove herself against girls that are you know not lindsey garbett and not vanessa demopolis"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Godinez has crisp boxing and power for 115 lbs. He thinks Penne's stand-up is marginal and she has been finished by elite fighters. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at +255 and Godinez by knockout. He is confident in Godinez winning.

under 2.5 rounds at +255, Godinez by knockout
"i wouldn't be surprised to see lupita godness knock out uh penne"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez to win by close decision. He doubts Jessica Penne's dedication after a long layoff since 2017, suggesting she may not have been training. He notes Godinez has a decent amateur career and some good wins, though not amazing. He believes Penne's mind may not be in the fight at 38 years old.

"i'm going to go of the new wave of talent in lupita gordina's loopy herself i think she'll get the job done by close decision 29 28"
LOSS vs Danielle Taylor
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Apr 22, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danielle Taylor 0 69 of 178 38% 71 of 181 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Jessica Penne 0 72 of 176 40% 76 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danielle Taylor 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 22 of 60 36% 23 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Danielle Taylor 0 31 of 72 43% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 29 of 72 40% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Danielle Taylor 0 19 of 52 36% 21 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Jessica Penne 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danielle Taylor 69 of 178 38% 37 of 136 31 of 40 1 of 2 55 of 159 14 of 19 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 72 of 176 40% 43 of 141 11 of 14 18 of 21 67 of 167 5 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danielle Taylor 19 of 54 35% 10 of 41 9 of 13 0 of 0 18 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 22 of 60 36% 14 of 50 2 of 2 6 of 8 21 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Danielle Taylor 31 of 72 43% 15 of 53 15 of 17 1 of 2 22 of 61 9 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 29 of 72 40% 18 of 57 5 of 8 6 of 7 26 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Danielle Taylor 19 of 52 36% 12 of 42 7 of 10 0 of 0 15 of 46 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 21 of 44 47% 11 of 34 4 of 4 6 of 6 20 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R2 2:56 · UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Jun 04, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 27 of 91 29% 28 of 92 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 117 of 205 57% 118 of 206 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 18 of 57 31% 19 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 64 of 107 59% 65 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 9 of 34 26% 9 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jessica Penne 0 53 of 98 54% 53 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 27 of 91 29% 17 of 67 10 of 23 0 of 1 19 of 80 8 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 117 of 205 57% 90 of 171 26 of 33 1 of 1 78 of 145 39 of 60 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 18 of 57 31% 8 of 36 10 of 21 0 of 0 10 of 46 8 of 11 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 64 of 107 59% 50 of 90 13 of 16 1 of 1 49 of 87 15 of 20 0 of 0
2 Jéssica Andrade 9 of 34 26% 9 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 1 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 53 of 98 54% 40 of 81 13 of 17 0 of 0 29 of 58 24 of 40 0 of 0
TKO (punches and knee) R3 4:22 · UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne · Jun 20, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 126 of 204 61% 162 of 247 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
Jessica Penne 0 25 of 88 28% 28 of 91 0 of 11 0% 0 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 23 of 47 48% 38 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 26 30% 11 of 29 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:39
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 57 of 81 70% 75 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Jessica Penne 0 9 of 33 27% 9 of 33 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 76 60% 49 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 126 of 204 61% 81 of 155 18 of 22 27 of 27 96 of 160 24 of 35 6 of 9
Jessica Penne 25 of 88 28% 13 of 69 7 of 14 5 of 5 24 of 85 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 23 of 47 48% 12 of 35 4 of 5 7 of 7 12 of 32 5 of 8 6 of 7
Jessica Penne 8 of 26 30% 3 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 57 of 81 70% 40 of 62 8 of 10 9 of 9 40 of 58 17 of 23 0 of 0
Jessica Penne 9 of 33 27% 5 of 26 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 76 60% 29 of 58 6 of 7 11 of 11 44 of 70 2 of 4 0 of 2
Jessica Penne 8 of 29 27% 5 of 23 2 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo is confident in Tabatha Ricci, citing her strong grappling, top pressure, and submission skills. He notes that Jessica Penne has only 40% takedown defense and that Ricci should dominate with her wrestling. Angelo bet 1.5 units on Ricci at -240.

"Tabitha Ricci is a very good Grappler always looking for submissions she doesn't sacrifice position or chase either she's very heavy on top good pressure good control"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady picks Tabatha Ricci, noting her ability to dictate where the fight takes place with her wrestling and judo. He mentions Penne's poor takedown defense (40%) and that Ricci can safely grapple without getting caught in submissions. He predicts a decision win for Ricci, with the fight primarily on the mat.

"I'm gonna take Richie to win this fight I'm gonna take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Cody picks Ricci, citing her youth, judo, and well-rounded game. He thinks Penne is too old and has been off for four years. He expects Ricci to win by decision or submission.

Tabatha Ricci by decision
"tab the reach you have to reach you by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Connor picks Tabatha Ricci, though he is not confident. He notes that Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt and will likely take the fight to the ground, where Penne is actually good. However, he thinks Ricci's aggression and functional grappling will allow her to win positions and avoid being submitted. Connor admits the fight is hard to analyze and could go either way.

"I guess I got to take Ricci because I just don't see the fact that she's gonna go into the only place where penne is actually good as like a death sentence for her."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Jacob agrees with Angelo, comparing this fight to Ricci's previous win over Polyana Viana. He believes Penne is a step down in competition and that Ricci will dominate with her pressure and top control. Jacob is fully confident in Ricci.

"I think that this is going to be honestly a carbon copy of that Pollyanna Vienna fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Ricci is a high-level BJJ black belt with good wrestling and control time. Penne is 40, has poor striking, and relies on dragging fights to the ground, but Ricci will likely be on top and avoid submissions. Ricci grinds out a decision victory.

"I think this is a great stylistic matchup for Tabitha Richie... I think penny is more than likely going to be fighting off of her back for the majority of this matchup and I just don't think it's going to come to fruition"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ricci. He notes the line has moved from -175 to -325, indicating sharp money. He thinks Ricci's grappling and youth will be too much for Penne.

"they've tightened up that number to stay away from maybe Richie's to pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The MMA Guru picks Tabatha Ricci, citing Jessica Penne's age (40) and Ricci's grappling advantage. He expects Ricci to control top position and win a split decision, noting that women's MMA judging often favors control time.

"I'm gonna trust in taba for Richie... I think she's going to be able to get down Jessica Penney and sort of like ride out top position."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Zane also picks Ricci, agreeing that her functional aggression and grappling will be enough to overcome Penne's awkward style. He notes that Penne's striking is robotic and she struggles with range, while Ricci will close the distance and make it a grappling match. Zane thinks Ricci's speed and confidence give her an edge, but he is not fully convinced.

"I think I'll pick Ricci too just because I think she's gonna fight with you know a functional aggression that will get her into good positions."