vs
+175 -186
UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige Next Fight
Age 45
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Matt Brown
3.76 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.92 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.68 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dhiego Lima
3.12 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.88 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.26 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Matt Brown
Moneyline
Caesars +175
KO/TKO
BetRivers +500
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
BetWay +400
Dhiego Lima
Moneyline
BetRivers -186
KO/TKO
BetMGM +400
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
BetWay +200
Matt Brown - Fight History
WIN vs Court McGee
KO (punch) R1 4:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.

"I'm still going to lean Matt Brown I'm gonna go against that Trend there but no bet absolutely no bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.

third round submission
"I'll say he does do that I'll say he goes out there takes down Matt Brown rents the repeat and grinds this guy across three rounds maybe even a late finish could be on the table here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.

"I got to go with the durability and the cardio which both still favor Court McGee so I too will take Court McGee but uh it's an old man Legends fight which I am so down for"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.

"I think I just have to lean McGee, like sure. Matt Brown could knock him out in the first round, right?"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.

Brown by KO to tie UFC knockout record; no bet placed
"I'm gonna pick Matt Brown uh just because historically speaking I think he wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.

"I think Court McGee will do a good job of tying him up using his but you know footwork and bicycle to get out of the way of these big shots of Matt Brown"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.

added to parlay with Garry and Ulberg
"I think Court McGee can make this fight very easy on himself by sticking to the wrestling getting up in Matt Brown's face and getting takedowns and securing them and holding in position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.

KO in the second or third round
"I'm actually going to pick Matt Brown by KO in the second or third round here against Court mcgear"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.

"I guess I'll take court McGee just cause one round of chance from exactly."
LOSS vs Bryan Barberena
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Barberena 0 81 of 129 62% 95 of 145 5 of 7 71% 0 0 5:01
Matt Brown 0 111 of 211 52% 186 of 289 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 37 62% 25 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:39
Matt Brown 0 23 of 51 45% 62 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 36 63% 29 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
Matt Brown 0 35 of 60 58% 59 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:30
3 Bryan Barberena 0 35 of 56 62% 41 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
Matt Brown 0 53 of 100 53% 65 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Barberena 81 of 129 62% 36 of 75 38 of 44 7 of 10 51 of 95 24 of 28 6 of 6
Matt Brown 111 of 211 52% 82 of 170 12 of 18 17 of 23 78 of 164 28 of 42 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Barberena 23 of 37 62% 8 of 21 12 of 12 3 of 4 9 of 22 11 of 12 3 of 3
Matt Brown 23 of 51 45% 13 of 36 2 of 4 8 of 11 19 of 46 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Bryan Barberena 23 of 36 63% 9 of 20 12 of 14 2 of 2 17 of 29 6 of 7 0 of 0
Matt Brown 35 of 60 58% 26 of 47 2 of 3 7 of 10 23 of 45 7 of 10 5 of 5
3 Bryan Barberena 35 of 56 62% 19 of 34 14 of 18 2 of 4 25 of 44 7 of 9 3 of 3
Matt Brown 53 of 100 53% 43 of 87 8 of 11 2 of 2 36 of 73 17 of 27 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.

"i need to go with brian barnard here he's incredibly durable his volume is impressive"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

Matt Brown wins by KO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna take the the 41 year old here to actually knock out brian barbarino we see that matt brown still has that power in his hands with his knockout in his last fight against lima."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.

first bet of the week
"i'm actually gonna go towards the brown side of this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.

"I'm still gonna go with matt brown here guys... I think he's going to be buoyed by this crowd"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

Barberena inside the distance at +315; fight doesn't go to decision at -130 to -140; Barberena round 3 at +1050
"i'm gonna go brian barber arena as the pick but rather than picking a side here again the odds are great on either side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.

"i'm gonna pick matt brown but i'm very interested to hear what you got"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown by second-round TKO over Bryan Barberena. He envisions Barberena slightly edging the first round before getting caught with a big overhand. The Guru trusts Brown's power and recent resurgence, noting his second-round finish of Diego Lima, while Barberena's wars may leave him vulnerable.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go with matt the immortal brown my boy"
WIN vs Dhiego Lima
KO (punch) R2 3:02 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 27 of 49 55% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 23 of 54 42% 23 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 1 12 of 19 63% 15 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 27 of 49 55% 12 of 27 11 of 17 4 of 5 22 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 23 of 54 42% 8 of 38 4 of 4 11 of 12 22 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 15 of 30 50% 8 of 18 4 of 8 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 12 of 32 37% 2 of 21 2 of 2 8 of 9 11 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Matt Brown 12 of 19 63% 4 of 9 7 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 11 of 22 50% 6 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.

monkey knife fight: more more (max play)
"i have matt brown winning this fight it is not the most confident pick i've ever had."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.

win by KO
"I will take the younger fighter in diego lima to get it done I'll say bye knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.

"i think i gotta take the coward's way out and probably go with diego lima you know again i just i i don't love betting on these guys at this stage of their career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.

"i'm gonna go with diego lima by being the younger fresher guy i think he chops him down with calf kicks and maybe finds a left hook finish"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.

"i am picking diego he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.

Lima by decision at +150; over 2.5 rounds at -130 mentioned as live; Lima by KO at +400 noted
"i'll go with diego lima to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.

under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'll pick diego lima to win this fight diego or diego lima maybe in rounds two or three i guess is where i would go"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Dhiego Lima

The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.

lead hook KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with diego lima i'm gonna go the lead hook ko... finish him at the end of the first round by tko"
LOSS vs Carlos Condit
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 0 39 of 88 44% 157 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 1 4:52
Matt Brown 0 28 of 37 75% 37 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 0 6 of 22 27% 60 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:23
Matt Brown 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:36
2 Carlos Condit 0 21 of 44 47% 58 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Matt Brown 0 11 of 15 73% 12 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Carlos Condit 0 12 of 22 54% 39 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Matt Brown 0 8 of 8 100% 10 of 13 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 39 of 88 44% 30 of 73 4 of 8 5 of 7 22 of 68 5 of 5 12 of 15
Matt Brown 28 of 37 75% 13 of 22 11 of 11 4 of 4 11 of 18 8 of 8 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 6 of 22 27% 3 of 16 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 5
Matt Brown 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 7
2 Carlos Condit 21 of 44 47% 17 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 7 of 8
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 3 of 7 6 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 5 of 5 2 of 2
Matt Brown 8 of 8 100% 4 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

second round knockout
"i'm going to say second round knockout for condit there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

"i'll take the plus 145 dog i'll go with matt brown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

Matt Brown by decision is the most likely outcome; a TKO is possible but less likely given Condit's durability.
"I think matt brown given his style and what we've seen from him as of late... i would line it a little bit closer to an even type of fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with carlos condit's chin sticking with him in this fight and him getting a tko finish in the third round once matt brown starts to gas a little bit from the stand up"
LOSS vs Miguel Baeza
TKO (punches) R2 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 2 37 of 73 50% 42 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 59 55% 33 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 1 32 of 65 49% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
2 Miguel Baeza 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Brown 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miguel Baeza 33 of 61 54% 25 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 44 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 37 of 73 50% 21 of 54 5 of 7 11 of 12 29 of 62 1 of 2 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miguel Baeza 33 of 59 55% 25 of 49 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 42 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 32 of 65 49% 17 of 48 5 of 6 10 of 11 25 of 56 1 of 2 6 of 7
2 Miguel Baeza 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 5 of 8 62% 4 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.

first-round knockout, leg kicks, underdog +155 for Brown
"I am going with by aiza and I'll tell you why but you cannot count on Matt Brown... I'm going with by Asia I'm gonna go by first-round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.

"I'm gonna slightly lean with Matt Brown here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The host picks Matt Brown, believing his veteran experience and pressure against the cage will overwhelm the undefeated Baeza. He thinks Baeza has not faced adversity and will struggle when things don't go his way. He predicts a TKO finish in the second or third round.

Matt Brown by TKO in the second or third round
"I think Matt Brown is gonna get this done maybe by finishing the second or third round I'll go with that TKO Matt Brown third or second round finish"
WIN vs Ben Saunders
KO (elbows and punches) R2 4:55 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 0 30 of 47 63% 40 of 59 2 of 3 66% 0 0 7:34
Ben Saunders 0 12 of 23 52% 38 of 49 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 5 of 10 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Ben Saunders 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 0 25 of 37 67% 30 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:26
Ben Saunders 0 3 of 9 33% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 30 of 47 63% 27 of 43 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 20 2 of 2 18 of 25
Ben Saunders 12 of 23 52% 10 of 17 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
Ben Saunders 9 of 14 64% 9 of 12 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 8
2 Matt Brown 25 of 37 67% 23 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 21
Ben Saunders 3 of 9 33% 1 of 5 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Diego Sanchez
KO (elbow) R1 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Nov 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Donald Cerrone
KO (Head Kick) R3 0:34 · UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Dec 10, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 2 63 of 147 42% 64 of 148 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Matt Brown 1 70 of 128 54% 73 of 131 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 34 of 72 47% 35 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Matt Brown 0 27 of 63 42% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Donald Cerrone 1 25 of 70 35% 25 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Matt Brown 1 41 of 60 68% 42 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Donald Cerrone 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Matt Brown 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 63 of 147 42% 46 of 126 7 of 11 10 of 10 62 of 143 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 70 of 128 54% 42 of 91 28 of 36 0 of 1 62 of 118 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 34 of 72 47% 24 of 60 4 of 6 6 of 6 34 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 27 of 63 42% 15 of 45 12 of 18 0 of 0 25 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 25 of 70 35% 19 of 62 3 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 41 of 60 68% 26 of 43 15 of 16 0 of 1 35 of 53 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima - Fight History
LOSS vs Matt Brown
KO (punch) R2 3:02 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 27 of 49 55% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 23 of 54 42% 23 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 1 12 of 19 63% 15 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 27 of 49 55% 12 of 27 11 of 17 4 of 5 22 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 23 of 54 42% 8 of 38 4 of 4 11 of 12 22 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 15 of 30 50% 8 of 18 4 of 8 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 12 of 32 37% 2 of 21 2 of 2 8 of 9 11 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Matt Brown 12 of 19 63% 4 of 9 7 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 11 of 22 50% 6 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.

monkey knife fight: more more (max play)
"i have matt brown winning this fight it is not the most confident pick i've ever had."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.

win by KO
"I will take the younger fighter in diego lima to get it done I'll say bye knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.

"i think i gotta take the coward's way out and probably go with diego lima you know again i just i i don't love betting on these guys at this stage of their career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.

"i'm gonna go with diego lima by being the younger fresher guy i think he chops him down with calf kicks and maybe finds a left hook finish"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.

"i am picking diego he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.

Lima by decision at +150; over 2.5 rounds at -130 mentioned as live; Lima by KO at +400 noted
"i'll go with diego lima to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.

under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'll pick diego lima to win this fight diego or diego lima maybe in rounds two or three i guess is where i would go"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Dhiego Lima

The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.

lead hook KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with diego lima i'm gonna go the lead hook ko... finish him at the end of the first round by tko"
LOSS vs Belal Muhammad
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 129 of 264 48% 136 of 284 1 of 10 10% 0 0 2:42
Dhiego Lima 0 69 of 203 33% 70 of 206 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 42 of 93 45% 42 of 94 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Dhiego Lima 0 19 of 69 27% 19 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 38 of 79 48% 39 of 83 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Dhiego Lima 0 25 of 76 32% 25 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 49 of 92 53% 55 of 107 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:52
Dhiego Lima 0 25 of 58 43% 26 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 129 of 264 48% 109 of 232 20 of 31 0 of 1 118 of 248 11 of 16 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 69 of 203 33% 26 of 156 17 of 19 26 of 28 69 of 203 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 42 of 93 45% 31 of 78 11 of 15 0 of 0 41 of 91 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 19 of 69 27% 10 of 57 1 of 2 8 of 10 19 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 38 of 79 48% 34 of 71 4 of 8 0 of 0 36 of 76 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 25 of 76 32% 7 of 58 5 of 5 13 of 13 25 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 49 of 92 53% 44 of 83 5 of 8 0 of 1 41 of 81 8 of 11 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 25 of 58 43% 9 of 41 11 of 12 5 of 5 25 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Belal Muhammad vs. Dhiego Lima

Round 1
Moving on to the welterweight division, perpetually tough out Muhammad (17-3, 8-3 UFC) looks to halt the momentum of two-time “The Ultimate Fighter” competitor Lima (15-7, 4-5 UFC). Our Octagon ranger for what could be a fun one is referee Herb Dean, and there is no glove touch to precede the action. Lima paws out with a jab as Muhammad presses the pace on him, and Muhammad crashes forward with a few punches until shooting in for a double leg takedown. The Brazilian thwarts the early takedown to break free from the position and a clinch. Muhammad allows him to circle away so that he can fling a head kick at him, and Lima is barely able to block it in time. Muhammad lands a solid left hand, and Lima pushes off with his left hand to jab the eye. There is a minor question of whether Muhammad is wearing contact lenses, and the fight resumes as Muhammad blinks it out. “Remember the Name” makes Lima remember his fists by landing several punches across the forward bow. Muhammad tattoos the body with several punches, and one of his right hands has started some swelling on Lima’s forehead. Muhammad bears down on Lima with strikes, pressuring the Brazilian and never letting Lima breathe. Muhammad wings a big right hand that collides with Lima’s temple, and he presses forward to consider a takedown but just swings a right hook instead. Lima delivers two big leg kicks to draw reactions out of Muhammad, but Muhammad is unconcerned as he pushes the pace again and rips the body with a right hand. Muhammad walks through a leg kick and plods forward to throw bombs, catching Lima on the chin repeatedly. Muhammad bobs and weaves a few punches to throw big shots, and Lima absorbs a heavy right hand. Lima is able to disrupt Muhammad’s movement for a moment with a leg kick that he and his sibling, Bellator champ Douglas Lima, are famous for. Muhammad hunts for a takedown, and he gets rebuffed and walks face-first into a huge right hand. Muhammad stumbles back, takes a quick count of his teeth, and wades back into the fray. Lima works the calf with more kicks, and Muhammad throws huge shots to make Lima bounce off the cage. Muhammad has a spinning back fist clack into Lima’s guard, and a few punches from the Roufusport export end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The two are amped up and ready to resume, so much so that Dean has to ask them back to away before engaging again. Muhammad starts up where he left off, pushing the pace aggressively to make Lima fight off his back foot. Muhammad sticks him with a jab and dips a big right hook to walk forward to fire off a single right hook. Muhammad digs the body with a kick, and he plants his gloves on Lima’s chin repeatedly. Lima wears it well, and he gives some strikes back to Muhammad, but Muhammad keeps at him with body shots. Muhammad slaps away a few punches before stepping in with a knee, and he uses the forward momentum to attack a double leg takedown. Once more, Lima defends the takedown flawlessly and backs away to gain separation. Muhammad is quick to pursue him with powerful strikes, and Lima ricochets off the fencing to land a calf kick that stuns Muhammad. Lima hits the same spot with the kick again, and Muhammad fearlessly pushes forward to throw punches in bunches. Lima continues to attack the calf, and Muhammad’s leg is marked up badly and he is struggling to put his full weight on it. Muhammad continues to throw punches in number, but they may not be quite as powerful as before with a wounded leg. Lima uses head movement to evade strikes and counter, and the two stand before one another landing at a high pace. Muhammad tries to lift his leg up to avoid a kick, but Lima still scores it. Like a zombie, Muhammad is back in Lima’s face putting shots on him to the head and body. Lima replies with punches and low kicks of his own, but Muhammad’s pressure appears to be fatiguing Lima. Muhammad shoots in low for a takedown, and he nearly takes Lima’s back standing up, but Lima manages to stay upright again. Muhammad throws a high kick but his calf gets plugged two more times, and Muhammad’s leg is nearly falling away beneath him. Muhammad takes the kicks flush, and he presses heavy on Lima into a clinch to ride out the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 3
Lima starts the round not with a leg kick, but one over the top, and Muhammad takes it well without flinching. Lima then targets the lead leg, and Muhammad marches in to throw looping shots. He clips Lima with a right hand, and Lima pushes off with his fingers outstretch, with a one finger jamming directly into Muhammad’s eye. Muhammad does not want Lima to take any time to recharge his batteries, so he tells Dean he is fine to resume. When clocked back in, Muhammad advances to throw strikes into a clinch, where once more he aims for a takedown attempt. Like every time before in this match, Lima stops the takedown from succeeding. Lima defends another that follows immediately after, and Muhammad winds up with a huge right hand that stings Lima. Muhammad gets off a solid one-two that shakes up Lima, and he rolls with punches while putting a pace on his foe. Lima lands a heavy uppercut to the chest, and Muhammad attacks with a takedown but is stuffed. Lima backs up and takes a deep breath, but Muhammad is on him throwing high volume as Lima struggles and his arms slow when throwing back. Muhammad fires to the head and body indiscriminately, with punches that have marked up Lima’s nose. Muhammad tags Lima with a one-two that forces Lima to shoot for a takedown, but Muhammad easily pulls his leg away and keeps up his brutal pressure. Muhammad lands punches over the top, and he changes levels low for a double, but Lima shoves him off. Lima lands a body kick, but in the process, Muhammad grabs hold of him and finally lands the takedown he has been pursuing for the last 14 minutes. Lima stands up, and Muhammad climbs on to his back like a backpack, securing a body triangle as the Brazilian stands up. Muhammad lands punches to the side of Lima’s head, and Lima tries to wiggle his man off of him. Muhammad does not fall away, and he maintains this position until the final horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (30-27 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Dhiego Lima via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Belal Muhammad to win by decision. He thinks Muhammad is better everywhere and deserving of being a big favorite. He notes that Lima absorbs more than he gives out and has been knocked out multiple times. He sees Muhammad winning by decision or possibly a knockout, and considers Muhammad a fine parlay piece.

Muhammad by decision; fine parlay piece; possible knockout
"Give me a bella mohammed here by decision i think is a fine parlay piece"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision, citing his high work rate and pressure. He notes that Lima must finish to win, but Belal's output and takedown mixing should overwhelm him. He acknowledges Lima's power and calf kicks but believes Belal's pace is too much. He says Belal is the rightful favorite and should win clearly.

Belal by unanimous decision; Lima must finish to win; mentions Belal's work rate and takedowns
"i think he's the rightful favorite and i got blah mohammed to be a unanimous decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host picks Muhammad to win but considers the fight closer than the odds suggest. He notes that Lima has a path to victory with his striking and range, and that Muhammad's all-around game may struggle if Lima uses calf kicks effectively. He warns that he might bet Lima if the odds reach +350 or +400.

"this is a closer fight than the odds suggest so i'll pick belal muhammad to win but do not be thrown off if you see me actually make a diego lima bet this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The Guru picks Belal Muhammad confidently, calling it one of his most confident picks on the card. He believes Muhammad's wrestling and stand-up will be too much for Dhiego Lima, who he sees as chinny and lacking durability. He predicts Muhammad will mix takedowns with striking, wear Lima down, and finish with ground-and-pound TKO in the second round.

Muhammad by second round TKO via ground and pound
"balaam mohammed gets the job done by second round ground and pound tko"
WIN vs Luke Jumeau
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Oct 05, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dhiego Lima 0 24 of 95 25% 24 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Jumeau 0 32 of 105 30% 49 of 124 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dhiego Lima 0 7 of 28 25% 7 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Jumeau 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dhiego Lima 0 7 of 28 25% 7 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Jumeau 0 9 of 32 28% 25 of 50 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:56
3 Dhiego Lima 0 10 of 39 25% 10 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Jumeau 0 14 of 36 38% 15 of 37 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dhiego Lima 24 of 95 25% 17 of 85 1 of 4 6 of 6 24 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Jumeau 32 of 105 30% 15 of 72 2 of 12 15 of 21 30 of 99 0 of 0 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dhiego Lima 7 of 28 25% 3 of 24 0 of 0 4 of 4 7 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Jumeau 9 of 37 24% 2 of 18 1 of 9 6 of 10 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dhiego Lima 7 of 28 25% 7 of 25 0 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Jumeau 9 of 32 28% 5 of 26 0 of 1 4 of 5 7 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 6
3 Dhiego Lima 10 of 39 25% 7 of 36 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Jumeau 14 of 36 38% 8 of 28 1 of 2 5 of 6 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Court McGee
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dhiego Lima 1 65 of 228 28% 69 of 232 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:01
Court McGee 0 65 of 159 40% 67 of 161 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dhiego Lima 0 16 of 58 27% 18 of 60 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:37
Court McGee 0 18 of 39 46% 20 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
2 Dhiego Lima 0 23 of 82 28% 23 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 22 of 58 37% 22 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Dhiego Lima 1 26 of 88 29% 28 of 90 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:24
Court McGee 0 25 of 62 40% 25 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dhiego Lima 65 of 228 28% 28 of 166 15 of 34 22 of 28 60 of 223 4 of 4 1 of 1
Court McGee 65 of 159 40% 47 of 135 16 of 22 2 of 2 62 of 155 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dhiego Lima 16 of 58 27% 6 of 38 6 of 14 4 of 6 15 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 18 of 39 46% 11 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0 18 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dhiego Lima 23 of 82 28% 10 of 62 4 of 9 9 of 11 23 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 22 of 58 37% 18 of 51 3 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Dhiego Lima 26 of 88 29% 12 of 66 5 of 11 9 of 11 22 of 84 3 of 3 1 of 1
Court McGee 25 of 62 40% 18 of 54 6 of 7 1 of 1 23 of 59 2 of 3 0 of 0
WIN vs Chad Laprise
KO (punch) R1 1:37 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dhiego Lima 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chad Laprise 1 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dhiego Lima 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chad Laprise 1 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dhiego Lima 8 of 16 50% 2 of 9 0 of 1 6 of 6 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chad Laprise 5 of 25 20% 4 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dhiego Lima 8 of 16 50% 2 of 9 0 of 1 6 of 6 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chad Laprise 5 of 25 20% 4 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 1 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Yushin Okami
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Apr 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yushin Okami 0 11 of 24 45% 17 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Dhiego Lima 0 15 of 19 78% 57 of 66 6 of 13 46% 0 0 12:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yushin Okami 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 4 of 6 66% 10 of 13 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:10
2 Yushin Okami 0 9 of 18 50% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dhiego Lima 0 1 of 2 50% 13 of 15 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:47
3 Yushin Okami 0 0 of 2 0% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 10 of 11 90% 34 of 38 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yushin Okami 11 of 24 45% 6 of 16 3 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 19 3 of 3 2 of 2
Dhiego Lima 15 of 19 78% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yushin Okami 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6
2 Yushin Okami 9 of 18 50% 6 of 13 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 13 3 of 3 2 of 2
Dhiego Lima 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yushin Okami 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 10 of 11 90% 9 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 10
LOSS vs Jesse Taylor
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 0:43 · The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · Jul 07, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jesse Taylor 1 4 of 4 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 21 of 24 87% 50 of 59 2 of 3 66% 2 1 5:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jesse Taylor 0 2 of 2 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 19 of 22 86% 48 of 57 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:53
2 Jesse Taylor 1 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jesse Taylor 4 of 4 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Dhiego Lima 21 of 24 87% 21 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 20 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jesse Taylor 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dhiego Lima 19 of 22 86% 19 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 19 of 22
2 Jesse Taylor 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Dhiego Lima 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
LOSS vs Li Jingliang
KO (punches) R1 1:25 · UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. Faber · May 16, 2015
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Li Jingliang 1 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Dhiego Lima 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Li Jingliang 1 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Dhiego Lima 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Li Jingliang 13 of 39 33% 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 24 0 of 0 9 of 15
Dhiego Lima 6 of 16 37% 5 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Li Jingliang 13 of 39 33% 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 24 0 of 0 9 of 15
Dhiego Lima 6 of 16 37% 5 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.

monkey knife fight: more more (max play)
"i have matt brown winning this fight it is not the most confident pick i've ever had."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.

win by KO
"I will take the younger fighter in diego lima to get it done I'll say bye knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.

"i think i gotta take the coward's way out and probably go with diego lima you know again i just i i don't love betting on these guys at this stage of their career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.

"i'm gonna go with diego lima by being the younger fresher guy i think he chops him down with calf kicks and maybe finds a left hook finish"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.

"i am picking diego he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.

Lima by decision at +150; over 2.5 rounds at -130 mentioned as live; Lima by KO at +400 noted
"i'll go with diego lima to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.

under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'll pick diego lima to win this fight diego or diego lima maybe in rounds two or three i guess is where i would go"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Dhiego Lima

The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.

lead hook KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with diego lima i'm gonna go the lead hook ko... finish him at the end of the first round by tko"