vs
-150 +144
UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige Next Fight
Age 33
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 1"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - SeungWoo Choi
3.56 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
3.16 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Julian Erosa
6.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
6.31 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
1.73 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
SeungWoo Choi
Moneyline
Caesars -150
KO/TKO
BetMGM +340
Submission
BetMGM +1100
Decision
BetWay +200
Julian Erosa
Moneyline
FanDuel +144
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
BetRivers +500
Decision
BetMGM +320
SeungWoo Choi - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Vallejos
KO R1 3:09 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
SeungWoo Choi 0 16 of 44 36% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 14 of 27 51% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 SeungWoo Choi 0 16 of 44 36% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 14 of 27 51% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
SeungWoo Choi 16 of 44 36% 4 of 20 1 of 8 11 of 16 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 14 of 27 51% 4 of 12 3 of 6 7 of 9 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 SeungWoo Choi 16 of 44 36% 4 of 20 1 of 8 11 of 16 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 14 of 27 51% 4 of 12 3 of 6 7 of 9 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo picks Kevin Vallejos over Choi Seung-woo. He is very confident in Vallejos, citing his power, speed, and the fact that Choi has been knocked out recently. He notes that UFC debuts can be nerve-wracking but believes Vallejos is the real deal. He expects the odds to move further in Vallejos' favor.

"I love Kevin in this matchup and even with the grappling I am very confident in him here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos, calling Choi Seung-woo very hittable and chinny. He notes that Choi has been knocked down or finished by lesser strikers like Michael Trizano and Josh Culibao, and that his style of standing and banging when hurt will backfire against Vallejos. Brady expects Vallejos to land a brutal first-round knockout, predicting he 'pipes up' Choi on sight.

Vallejos first round KO
"give me Kevin vallejos to win this fight by a brutal brutal first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his speed, movement, and ability to finish. He notes that Eric Anders has been knocked down in his last three fights and is 38 years old. He believes Duncan can land a knockout, possibly in the first round, and considers the KO prop at plus 200.

KO prop at +200
"CLD by knockout. That may make my card this week to be perfectly honest. Um plus 200 when you've got like a minus 600 favorite."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor agrees, noting that Vallejos is a much more natural puncher inside and that Choi will relegate himself to brawling. He compares Vallejos to Jack Della Maddalena without a jab, but still fearsome. He also mentions that Vallejos looks for ways in off his opponent's offense and is a damn good combination puncher once he gets you out of position.

"I'm going to take Vallejos."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host believes this is a horrible matchup for Choi, who may have an output advantage but will eventually be caught by Vallejos crashing the pocket with big shots that put him clean out.

knockout
"I believe this is a horrible matchup for Troy he might have the output Advantage here against valos but I think it's just a matter of time before valos is able to crash the Pocket land those big shots on …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Duncan, noting that Anders is a low-volume fighter who has been dropped early in recent fights. He believes Duncan's speed and athleticism will be too much, and he expects a finish. He is considering the KO prop as well.

"I think he's improving. They've not given him the easiest run. Anders isn't the easiest fight, but you should be able to just use that speed, that movement, keep him off of you, outpoint him at the very least."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The MMA Guru is very high on Kevin Vallejos, calling him the 'people's Main Event' and a real deal prospect. He praises his striking, head movement, and defensive responsibility, noting he took Jean Silva to a decision on the Contender Series at age 21. He criticizes Choi Seung-woo's bad chin and knockout losses, including to Mike Trizano. He predicts Vallejos will get a TKO finish in the second round, possibly late first, and believes he will go far in the division.

Second round TKO (maybe late first)
"I'm going with Kevin valos this is the people's Main Event okay you might not know it yet but you will after this Kevin vallejos is the real [ __ ] deal"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos because he believes Vallejos has a good chin (going three rounds with John Silva) and that Choi will eventually brawl, which favors Vallejos' natural pocket punching. He notes that Vallejos is a good combination puncher with defense, and that Choi cannot fight from distance forever. He acknowledges the competition level concern but thinks Vallejos has the tools.

Odds: Vallejos opened -384, now -636; Choi opened +248, now +424. Zane says the line is too wide but Vallejos deserves to be a favorite.
"I think I'm going to pick Vallejos, not just because he's a witch."
LOSS vs Steve Garcia
TKO (punches) R1 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Seung Woo Choi vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-148), Choi (+124)

Round 1
Finding himself in the unexpected situation of serving as the co-main event after the cancelation of Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park, “Mean Machine” Garcia (15-5, 4-2 UFC) is ready to rise the occasion and lock down his fourth win in a row. The Jackson-Wink fighter will try to hand Choi (11-6, 4-5 UFC) his fourth loss in five fights, and the two featherweights will likely meet in the middle and throw down. When they do, referee Herb Dean will be hanging on tight. There is a touch of gloves, and Garcia is the initial aggressor as he gets into the center of the cage and lands a stomp kick to the knee. Garcia ducks back to avoid two looping hooks, only to race forward and bump into Choi’s forehead to tie him up. Garcia ties up a leg but is unable to put the South Korean down, and when Choi escapes, he throws hands. Garcia welcomes the exchange, and when things settle down, he lands another kick to the knee. Choi chambers and fires a low kick that puts Garcia down to a knee, and Garcia climbs back up and gets swept with another kick. Garcia wades forward, thinks about throwing a front kick and lets it go to stand and bang. Stand and bang is exactly what “Mean Machine” does, rocking Choi and getting clipped in a destructive exchange.
Garcia lands the cleaner of the blows as he continues to slug it out, and he knocks Choi off-balance with a left hand and floors him with another bomb of a left. Choi turns to his side and then knees in an effort to shell up and survive, but Garcia is a man possessed at getting the win. Garcia stings “Sting” repeatedly with hammerfists, raining down a seemingly unending onslaught of fists until Dean has no choice but to stop the fight.
Choi looks up at Dean quizzically as blood streams from his mouth, and Garcia runs to the cage wall to scream and then scales it to shout even louder. This is a big moment for Garcia, who has now picked up four straight knockout victories. The triumphant Garcia calls for an MMA fight against Dan Ige, a popular name lately, while also calling out commentator Daniel Cormier for a golf match.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Seung Woo Choi R1 1:36 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he is sneaky good with five UFC wins all by KO/TKO. He believes Garcia's striking and wrestling are there, and that Choi Seung-woo has been finished before. He has placed a bet on Garcia at -140 and expects the line to move.

bet placed at -140
"Steve Garcia is the pick I got a nice little bet on him at minus 140"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Cody also picks Garcia but with less confidence, noting Garcia's own durability issues and the fact that both fighters have been dropped. He sees the fight as close to 50/50 and suggests taking Choi if plus money is available. He emphasizes the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet, expecting a violent finish.

"I got one guy that's on a three-fight winning streak... I got to get the guy in the three-fight winning streak."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Garcia by knockout, comparing the fight to a coin flip but ultimately choosing Garcia. He notes both fighters have high knockdown rates and can be dropped, but Garcia's size (6'0", 75" reach) and recent form (5 knockdowns in last 3 fights) give him the edge. He expects a stand-up war ending in a Garcia knockout.

by KO
"heads we're gonna go with Steve Garcia here to uh drop Troy a couple times and then all out War"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Garcia is a -140 favorite. He relies on his knockout power and has a three-fight KO streak. Choi is more technical but has been finished before. Garcia can survive early pressure and land a big shot to get the KO. I prefer Garcia by knockout rather than moneyline, as his KO line is around +130.

Garcia by knockout
"I would rather Garcia by knockout rather than Garcia moneyline at minus 140"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Paul likes Garcia's momentum and power, noting his three-fight winning streak with five knockdowns. He questions Choi's durability, pointing out Choi has been knocked down five times in his last three fights. Paul thinks Garcia's power is the difference and expects a knockout, though he acknowledges both have shaky chins.

"I think it's Steve all day here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, noting he has doubted Garcia before but he keeps winning. He highlights Garcia's recent finishes over Malik El Kousa, Shannon Nurnbeck, and Chase Hooper, and his training at Jackson Wink. He points out Choi Seung-woo's questionable chin, getting wobbled in most fights, and believes Garcia's power and size at 145 will be too much.

"I'm gonna go with um Steve Garcia I've doubted Steve Garcia enough"
WIN vs Jarno Errens
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
SeungWoo Choi 1 56 of 115 48% 108 of 179 1 of 1 100% 0 0 5:21
Jarno Errens 1 30 of 76 39% 40 of 88 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 SeungWoo Choi 0 26 of 52 50% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Jarno Errens 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
2 SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 19 47% 28 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:34
Jarno Errens 1 4 of 8 50% 14 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
3 SeungWoo Choi 1 21 of 44 47% 51 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:52
Jarno Errens 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
SeungWoo Choi 56 of 115 48% 22 of 69 8 of 15 26 of 31 51 of 107 2 of 3 3 of 5
Jarno Errens 30 of 76 39% 13 of 47 6 of 14 11 of 15 30 of 73 0 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 SeungWoo Choi 26 of 52 50% 10 of 32 4 of 6 12 of 14 24 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jarno Errens 18 of 41 43% 9 of 25 3 of 6 6 of 10 18 of 39 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 SeungWoo Choi 9 of 19 47% 5 of 13 1 of 2 3 of 4 6 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 5
Jarno Errens 4 of 8 50% 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 SeungWoo Choi 21 of 44 47% 7 of 24 3 of 7 11 of 13 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jarno Errens 8 of 27 29% 2 of 16 3 of 8 3 of 3 8 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Angelo acknowledges Choi's three-fight losing streak and recent TKO loss, but notes that his losses came against solid competition. He highlights Choi's technical striking, leg kicks, and takedown setups. Despite the losing streak, he believes Choi is the better fighter and picks him, but with no bet due to the streak.

"sengu Choi is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady acknowledges Choi Seung-woo's three-fight skid but believes he is much better than his record indicates, with good striking and power. He thinks Choi has improved his takedown defense enough to keep the fight standing. He is not a fan of Jarno Errens, citing a lackluster debut and disadvantages in volume and power. He expects Choi to outpoint Errens over 15 minutes.

decision
"give me a song with Troy to win this fight I'll take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jarno Errens

Cody picks Errens as an underdog, noting his Dutch kickboxing style and volume. He thinks Choi's chin is deteriorating and Errens can outwork him. Cody likes the plus money value.

"the plus money is right to me I'd be willing to take a flight on the underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel leans Choi Seung-woo, noting that he is the more skilled mixed martial artist. He mentions that Choi has a habit of dropping his right hand and getting countered with left hooks, and his chin may be damaged. He acknowledges that Errens has a good submission game and takedown defense issues. He is not confident and advises staying away from this fight.

"I'm gonna lean with Troy but it's it's not a confident pick and you know unless someone has a strong read I'd advise most likely staying away from this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Jarno Errens

James leans towards Jarno Errens as an underdog, citing Choi's poor durability and defensive technique after being dropped multiple times in recent fights. He believes the fight will be a 15-minute striking affair and trusts Errens' durability and technical striking over Choi's power. He notes the line has moved but originally Errens was at +180, which he sees as value.

"I'm gonna lean to the general Erin side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jarno Errens

The host notes that Choi Seung-woo is on a 0-3 slump, has been finished in two of those fights, and his durability is declining. He highlights Choi's poor striking defense and vulnerability to grappling. Jarno Errens has a judo background and decent power, and the host believes his power and grappling advantage will allow him to pull off the upset. The host mentions that Errens' odds have moved from +210 to +140/+150, indicating public support.

"I think his big Power and grappling advantage in this matchup will allow him to string the upset against the Korean fighter here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jarno Errens

Paul picks Errens, noting Choi's low volume and defensive issues. He expects Errens to pressure and land more strikes. Paul is not confident but likes the underdog value.

"I'll side with the underdog at plus 135 here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru picks Choi Seung-woo over Jarno Errens, citing Errens' lack of skill and poor performance against William Gomez. He notes Choi's mixed results but highlights his experience at a high level, takedown defense, and composure. He believes Choi's striking and clinch strength will be decisive, predicting a TKO finish.

TKO finish predicted
"I'm gonna have to go with the composure of sun Wu Choi I think he's got more experience at a high level as well more experience at a ubfc level especially"
LOSS vs Michael Trizano
KO (punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Trizano 2 32 of 53 60% 34 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
SeungWoo Choi 1 26 of 73 35% 26 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Trizano 2 32 of 53 60% 34 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
SeungWoo Choi 1 26 of 73 35% 26 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Trizano 32 of 53 60% 28 of 49 2 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 40 1 of 1 10 of 12
SeungWoo Choi 26 of 73 35% 19 of 61 3 of 7 4 of 5 25 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Trizano 32 of 53 60% 28 of 49 2 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 40 1 of 1 10 of 12
SeungWoo Choi 26 of 73 35% 19 of 61 3 of 7 4 of 5 25 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Angelo sees this as a close firefight between two forward-pressure strikers. He thinks Trizano may be more technical, but Choi is more well-rounded, has higher volume, and is more durable. He notes that Choi's losses were close and he showed durability. He is not sure about betting because the odds are close, but he leans Choi to win.

significant strikes props on BetOnline
"I like Troy to win but I mean it's likely going to be a fire fight so I think it's closer than the odds are telling you"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady picks SeungWoo Choi to win by decision. He believes Choi is the better striker with more power, and that Trizano doesn't wrestle (only 1-2 takedowns in UFC). He notes Choi has struggled with grapplers but Trizano won't take him down. He criticizes Trizano's recent performances, being outlanded by Lucas Almeida and Chidi Njokuani. He expects a striking match where Choi's power and volume earn him a decision.

Choi by decision
"give me Troy to win enjoy to win this one by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Cody picks Choi, arguing that Trizano looks washed and disinterested, with poor striking defense and low volume. He notes that Choi is long, rangy, and versatile with his Muay Thai, and that Trizano has been getting hit and knocked down recently. Cody believes Choi will pick Trizano apart from distance and win by decision or TKO.

"I'm taking Troy one of us is going to be right unfortunately and none of us is going to be wrong."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Connor picks Choi, noting that Trizano's low output and discomfort in exchanges play into Choi's strengths as a sharp counter puncher. He points out that Choi is dangerous at range and Trizano struggles to force the kind of messy fight that would make Choi uncomfortable. Connor also mentions that Trizano's recent improvements in aggression are not natural, and he still looks uncomfortable in exchanges.

"I think I'm taking Sun Wuchoi as bad as he looked against Kula Bell..."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi, believing he will land the bigger shots and potentially knock out Trizano. He notes that Trizano has a low-volume point-fighting style and may be on a losing streak, while Choi has faced tougher competition and shown resilience. Levi thinks Choi's power and experience will be too much for Trizano, who has confidence issues after recent losses.

"I'm going with song with Choi to get back on track here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The host sees Choi as the slicker striker with better range and combinations. He notes Trizano struggles when at a striking disadvantage, as seen in losses to L'Empereur and Almeida. Choi's size and reach should allow him to touch Trizano from the outside and win a decision. The host also likes the over 2.5 rounds if the price is right, expecting a kickboxing match without a finish.

over 2.5 rounds (if even money or plus money)
"I do lean the choice side though I do think it's slightly closer than the odds indicate but I still think that Troy ends up getting his hand raise"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Michael Trizano

Paul leans towards Trizano, noting that Choi's volume is low and that Trizano could mix in takedowns. He acknowledges that Trizano has looked bad recently but thinks the fight is close and that Trizano's wrestling could be the difference. Paul is not confident and calls it a stay-away fight.

"I'll ever so slightly lean towards trizano I wish he had more of a wrestling game than he does."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru confidently picks SeungWoo Choi, reasoning that Trizano lacks takedown ability and Choi has great takedown defense. He criticizes Trizano's basic, goofy striking and notes that Choi has dealt with unorthodox fighters before. He predicts a 30-27 decision for Choi.

"I'm going with seongwoo choya only because Mike trizano doesn't really be he hasn't really shown an ability to get people to the ground"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Zane picks Choi, agreeing that Trizano's low output and lack of comfort in exchanges make him vulnerable. He notes that Choi is sharp and dangerous in the first layer of striking, where Trizano tends to get stuck. Zane also points out that Trizano's jab and low kicks may have success, but he won't be able to make Choi uncomfortable enough to win.

"I can't trust Trisano to fight that fight."
LOSS vs Josh Culibao
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Culibao 0 46 of 163 28% 64 of 184 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:30
SeungWoo Choi 2 51 of 111 45% 69 of 132 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Culibao 0 17 of 62 27% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
SeungWoo Choi 1 23 of 47 48% 35 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
2 Josh Culibao 0 16 of 59 27% 16 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
SeungWoo Choi 1 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Josh Culibao 0 13 of 42 30% 30 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 21 42% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Culibao 46 of 163 28% 29 of 137 6 of 14 11 of 12 39 of 147 4 of 10 3 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 51 of 111 45% 40 of 97 7 of 9 4 of 5 40 of 95 6 of 8 5 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Culibao 17 of 62 27% 13 of 56 1 of 3 3 of 3 15 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 23 of 47 48% 20 of 42 3 of 4 0 of 1 17 of 36 2 of 4 4 of 7
2 Josh Culibao 16 of 59 27% 10 of 50 2 of 4 4 of 5 15 of 56 1 of 3 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 19 of 43 44% 16 of 39 1 of 2 2 of 2 17 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Josh Culibao 13 of 42 30% 6 of 31 3 of 7 4 of 4 9 of 33 1 of 3 3 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 21 42% 4 of 16 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Angelo picks Choi, expecting him to keep the fight technical and avoid a brawl. He notes Culibao is tough and has power but is willing to fight dirty, which could be dangerous. However, he believes Choi's technical striking and ability to mix in takedowns will secure a decision win.

"i like joining this fight i think he can keep it technical avoid that phone booth brawl and cruise to a solid striking showcase win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady picks SeungWoo Choi to win by decision. He notes that Choi is a very good Muay Thai striker with power, while Culibao has zero takedown accuracy in the UFC and is unlikely to take Choi down. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Choi has the advantage.

"I got to favor SeungWoo Choi here I think he's the better striker so yeah pretty simple fight to break down for me pretty straightforward pick here give me SeungWoo Choi to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Cody picks Choi, citing his length, Muay Thai background, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Choi's striking will be too much for Culibao, who is shorter and less technical. He expects Choi to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i think this is a good spot for him to jump back on track"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his physicality, knockout power, and technical striking. He is not fully convinced about Josh Culibao's ceiling and sees Choi as the better athlete. He notes that Culibao's best chance is to win competitive striking exchanges, but Choi's advantages should prevail. He is not betting the fight.

"my pick is gonna be song and also the size difference here I'm very curious to see how apparent that is"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Choi is the better striker with range and power. Culibao wants to brawl, but Choi can stay on the outside and pick him apart. Culibao's chin is granite, so a decision is likely. Choi is a solid parlay piece. I think Choi wins by decision.

Choi by decision (+175)
"I think troy is the better fighter better striker and if culibao's chin wasn't made of granite i think he'd be able to knock him out here but i think he's going to style on him for the majority of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Choi's length and striking advantage. He thinks Culibao's takedowns won't be effective and that Choi will control the distance. He sees Choi as the rightful favorite.

"choi is the rightful favor minus 235 seems like a high price to be paying"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru picks SeungWoo Choi by 29-28 decision, but warns not to sleep on Josh Culibao. He acknowledges Culibao's skills and close fight with Jordan, but believes Choi's superior stand-up, reach advantage, and Muay Thai credentials will give him the edge. He expects Choi to win the first two rounds clearly, with Culibao possibly taking the third due to volume. He rates Choi's chances at 6.5-7 out of 10, not higher.

"i'm gonna go sung wu choy but do not sleep on joshua calibal"
LOSS vs Alex Caceres
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:31 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Caceres 0 46 of 64 71% 54 of 72 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:49
SeungWoo Choi 1 33 of 98 33% 38 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Caceres 0 29 of 39 74% 29 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
SeungWoo Choi 1 19 of 65 29% 22 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
2 Alex Caceres 0 17 of 25 68% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:49
SeungWoo Choi 0 14 of 33 42% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Caceres 46 of 64 71% 22 of 33 13 of 17 11 of 14 37 of 54 9 of 10 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 33 of 98 33% 18 of 78 11 of 16 4 of 4 26 of 85 3 of 3 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Caceres 29 of 39 74% 12 of 18 9 of 12 8 of 9 26 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 19 of 65 29% 13 of 56 2 of 5 4 of 4 15 of 55 0 of 0 4 of 10
2 Alex Caceres 17 of 25 68% 10 of 15 4 of 5 3 of 5 11 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
SeungWoo Choi 14 of 33 42% 5 of 22 9 of 11 0 of 0 11 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Angelo thinks Choi is the more technical striker with better takedown entries, and should win the fight. However, he loves the value on Caceres as a +200 underdog and already grabbed a +3.5 bet on him at -115, meaning Caceres only needs to win one round. He thinks Caceres is tough enough to not get finished and can steal a round. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight.

grabbed a +3.5 bet on Caceres at -115; likes more/more on monkey knife fight; won't spend 9200 on Choi in DraftKings
"i am loving the value at an at a two to one underdog alice casera so i already grabbed a plus three and a half bet on him at minus 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady picks Choi as the younger, improving fighter who lands harder shots. He notes Caceres is durable but expects Choi to win a clear decision, though he warns that betting a -300 favorite to decision is risky due to poor judging. He sees Choi's takedown defense as a potential issue but believes he's worked on it.

"i think troy gets it done again landing the harder shots"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Cody is confident in Seung Woo Choi, citing his size, reach, and striking acumen. He notes that Choi is a former Korean Muay Thai champion and has improved his takedown defense. Cody contrasts Choi's recent wins against solid competition with Alex Caceres's wins over lower-level opponents. He points out that Caceres has not scored a clean knockout since 2010 and lacks the wrestling to take Choi down. Cody believes Choi will out-strike Caceres and potentially finish him.

Top ticket material; parlay piece
"sue wong choi looks like he'll probably be top ticket material this week i just really like how he matches up with one bruce lee caceres"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Lock picks Choi based on power and striking. He thinks Choi's power will be the difference and that Caceres will be outmatched on the feet. He expects Choi to win by decision, noting Caceres is experienced but may be on the decline.

Choi by decision +100
"i like troy i like troy decision which i currently think is sitting around plus 100"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Caceres is not used to facing opponents with reach and height advantages. He highlights Choi's cleaner, harder strikes and Caceres's lack of takedown threat. Paul mentions that Caceres's recent wins are over fighters who are no longer in the UFC or are fringe roster members. He believes Choi's size and striking will be too much for Caceres.

"going through alex caceres's last 10 fights which brings you back to 2016. he's landed three takedowns fact so he's throwing the harder cleaner more technical strikes it's gonna be choi"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his Muay Thai skills, reach, and physical advantages. He questions Alex Caceres' level of competition and believes Choi will out-strike him, particularly with leg kicks, winning by decision.

"i'm going to go have seong wu choi here i think it's a logical prediction to make"
WIN vs Julian Erosa
TKO (punches) R1 1:37 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
SeungWoo Choi 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 13 of 29 44% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 SeungWoo Choi 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 13 of 29 44% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
SeungWoo Choi 10 of 20 50% 5 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 13 of 29 44% 10 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 22 0 of 0 6 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 SeungWoo Choi 10 of 20 50% 5 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 13 of 29 44% 10 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 22 0 of 0 6 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo picks Julian Erosa, noting his violence, aggression, and multiple ways to win (KO or submission). He acknowledges Erosa relies on his chin but thinks he has more paths to victory than Choi, who can only win by KO. He has a bet on the fight going under 2.5 rounds at +125 and also bet on it not going the distance at +105.

under 2.5 rounds (+125, half unit); does not go the distance (+105)
"julian rosa is my pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady thinks Choi is the much better striker and that Erosa is very hittable with a weak chin. He expects a knockout, predicting Choi finishes Erosa in the second round. He considered betting but decided to pass.

win by KO in round 2
"I'm going to take sangwoo choi to knock out juliana rosa"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Cody picks Choi, citing Choi's physical strength, excellent jab, and durability. He acknowledges Erosa's pressure and volume but believes Choi's jab and ability to stay on the outside will carry him to a competitive decision win. He notes Choi's fatigue in the third round of his last fight but thinks Erosa's pressure could be neutralized.

"i myself see my uh myself going with seongwoo choi again i think that he's physically stronger than woodson uh he's got a better chin than nate lanware"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his physicality, size, and technical striking. He notes that Choi has been improving and is now more comfortable in the UFC, while Erosa has a tendency to fight with his hands down and has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Choi's technique and strength will be too much for Erosa, and expects a dominant performance.

"i'm going to go with sung wu choi to get the biggest uh biggest win of his career and also have the best performance of his career"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Jacob picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his speed and precise in-and-out striking. He believes Choi can stuff takedowns and keep the distance, avoiding Erosa's dirty boxing and submissions. He also mentions a pattern where Erosa alternates wins and losses, predicting a loss here. He has Choi in his lineup.

"sing woo choy is gonna win and he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The host picks SeungWoo Choi, believing his Muay Thai and technical striking will overcome Julian Erosa's wild, loopy shots. He notes Choi's improving takedown defense and that Erosa's brawling style plays into Choi's counters. He expects Choi to keep the fight standing and outpoint Erosa over 15 minutes, possibly earning a decision. He mentions Choi's win over Youssef Zalal as evidence of his growth, and that Erosa's wrestling is not better than Gavin Tucker's, which Choi handled.

Choi by decision at +190 mentioned as a good line
"i'm gonna take troy to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa by KO as a YOLO play, noting Erosa's recent knockout wins and Choi's history of being knocked out. He also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He acknowledges the risk but likes Erosa's pressure and volume.

Erosa by KO +700; under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'm on the under two and a half plus 120 and i'm on uh juicy j by ko plus 700 tell me i'm wrong"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa to win by submission (d'arce choke) in round three. He expects Choi to land good shots early, but Erosa will make it messy in round two, forcing clinches and takedowns. In round three, Erosa will lure Choi into a war, Choi will lose composure and shoot a bad takedown, allowing Erosa to latch on a d'arce choke.

submission win, third round, d'arce choke
"i'm going to go with julian arosa darsh choke submission in round three"
WIN vs Youssef Zalal
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
SeungWoo Choi 0 41 of 109 37% 73 of 144 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:39
Youssef Zalal 0 23 of 47 48% 46 of 70 3 of 9 33% 1 1 4:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 SeungWoo Choi 0 13 of 54 24% 26 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Youssef Zalal 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:33
2 SeungWoo Choi 0 19 of 37 51% 34 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Youssef Zalal 0 6 of 14 42% 14 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:52
3 SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 18 50% 13 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:20
Youssef Zalal 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 17 3 of 5 60% 1 1 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
SeungWoo Choi 41 of 109 37% 25 of 84 10 of 13 6 of 12 26 of 93 12 of 13 3 of 3
Youssef Zalal 23 of 47 48% 12 of 34 9 of 10 2 of 3 21 of 44 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 SeungWoo Choi 13 of 54 24% 7 of 42 4 of 6 2 of 6 9 of 50 4 of 4 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 12 of 24 50% 5 of 16 6 of 6 1 of 2 12 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 SeungWoo Choi 19 of 37 51% 14 of 31 3 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 28 8 of 8 1 of 1
Youssef Zalal 6 of 14 42% 4 of 11 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 SeungWoo Choi 9 of 18 50% 4 of 11 3 of 4 2 of 3 7 of 15 0 of 1 2 of 2
Youssef Zalal 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Seung Woo Choi vs. Youssef Zalal

Round 1
In yet another bout stung by opponent change after opponent change, “Sting” Choi (8-3, 1-2 UFC) finds himself glad to face anyone inside the cage, drawing a tough matchup against the recently surging Zalal (10-3, 3-1 UFC) also at featherweight. The third man inside the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, and the two men are so glad to be competing tonight that they practically hug when touching gloves. Choi opens up with a leg kick that comes up short, and Zalal walks around the outside and similarly misses with his own leg kick. Choi lets loose with a head kick, and he fires off a one-two that makes Zalal bounce off the cage wall. Choi’s punches are drawing reactions out of his opponent, and he just misses with a head kick that blows back Zalal’s hair. Zalal jabs to the body, and he hops forward with a left hand and ducks out of the way before a counter can find him. Zalal sticks his man with a jab, and is in and out with a body strike but he does take a high body kick. Zalal starts talking, and Choi slams him in the leg with a kick. Zalal’s jabs allow him to get out of danger as Choi is loading up on power strikes, and the South Korean does land with a solid right hand but Zalal rolls with it without issue. Choi scores a body kick and glances off with a pair of punches as he wings heavily, but the speed of Zalal is giving his foe issues as he jabs in and out. Zalal chains a strike into a takedown attempt, and he does not secure it but bullies “Sting” into the wire. Choi grinds his elbow on Zalal’s face while defending himself, and Tognoni asks them to stay busy as a stalemate has presented itself. Zalal pushes up high before changing levels for a low double, but Choi keeps his legs spread far enough apart to keep his balance and break the grip. Choi lands a couple heavy shoulder strikes, but Tognoni breaks them apart. Choi steps back and delivers a leg kick, and gets clipped with a left hand on the way in but he lands as well. As they come together and break, “Sting” stings him with an elbow. Choi tags Zalal with a quick counter, and presses Zalal into the fence before dragging Zalal down to punctuate the round right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 2
Both men jab at the same time to begin the second frame, and Choi walks Zalal down and works him with a left hand. An errant kick from Zalal clanks off the cup, but Choi assures that he is fine and darts forward to pursue a takedown. Zalal, with his back on the fence, jumps up to attack a guillotine choke. In the process, Zalal turns the two around, and he goes after his own takedown while Choi works him with short elbows to the side of the head. Zalal’s single leg takedown attempt ignores a solid elbow to lift Choi’s leg up, but Choi is still able to stay standing on one leg. “The Moroccan Devil” changes it up to a double leg takedown, and Choi keeps elbowing him to break it up. Zalal looks to elevate his opponent, and he does not have the ability to put Choi on his back, leading to Tognoni asking them to keep fighting. Zalal stays pressed on Choi against the cage until Tognoni splits them up. Choi lands a kick on the shoulder, and a few punches clatter off Zalal’s face. Zalal smiles and gets out of the way, but he takes a jab on the chin as he retreats. Choi powers forward with punches before latching on to his opponent for a body lock takedown attempt, but Zalal sees it coming and holds on tight without concern of hitting the canvas. Choi turns the attempt into a throw, and both end up on the ground but Choi cannot keep him there. Zalal looks for upkicks that do not score, and when he stands up, he goes after a flying knee. Choi brushes it aside and cracks him with a right hand. Zalal scores a knee when Choi tries to clinch up, and he connects with a jab but eats a right hand. Choi catches a kick and pushes Zalal down, but Zalal pops up. The two both leap with flying strikes at the same time, and they crash into the fence without landing much of note before the second round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Choi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Choi

Round 3
The glove touch commences the final round, and Choi is looking for knockout blows early as he slings head kick and big punches. He backs Zalal away with a kick and then follows it with a slapping leg kick, and his forward momentum bowls Zalal over. “The Moroccan Devil” is sly, and he rolls through to stand back up, where he re-presents his jab. Choi crashes forward with strikes to clinch, and this time, Zalal is not interested in engaging like this. Choi gathers himself and attempts this again, so Zalal jumps guard for a guillotine choke. As there is nothing to it, Zalal bails on it and spins around to attack a double leg takedown. Choi stands him back up, and for the first time, Zalal lifts him up and sets him down. Zalal immediately attacks a guillotine choke, and he rolls to mount as it is locked in fairly tight. Choi grits it out, and he puts Zalal on his back, so Zalal throws his legs up for a triangle choke. The South Korean is not remotely flustered, as he breaks the posture and sits down in Zalal’s guard. Choi drops down a shoulder strike to put Zalal flat on his back, and Zalal sits up only to get dropped back down. Zalal uses upkicks to back Choi off, and as Choi avoids them, he vaults back up. Zalal lands a quick jab but takes two punches for it, and he changes levels for a single leg takedown. Choi defends it by grabbing the fence, and Tognoni does not call it as Zalal is still pushing to try to complete it. Choi sits against the fence and stands up, but Zalal scoops him up and hits a double. “Sting” stands up once more without issue, and he allows Zalal to take his back for a moment. Zalal defends a takedown attempt with a guillotine choke, and he keeps his balance as Choi nearly has him down. Choi stays heavy, keeping his full body weight pressed on his opponent, so Zalal latches on to one final guillotine choke. It is not there, and time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal (29-28 Choi)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal (29-28 Zalal)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal (29-28 Choi)

The Official Result
Seung Woo Choi def. Youssef Zalal via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady picks the underdog SeungWoo Choi, disagreeing with the line that has Zalal as a heavy favorite. He notes that Zalal may struggle to take Choi down, and if the fight stays standing, Choi's striking is very impressive. He also mentions that Zalal is coming in on short notice, which adds to his uncertainty. He is not overly confident but likes the value at plus money.

odds comment: Zalal minus 255 is too wide; Choi plus 195 is good value
"I'm gonna take the underdog here, I'm gonna take the underdog and Choi... those odds are insane like Zalal minus 255."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi as a dog-or-pass, viewing it as a close fight. He notes Choi's takedown defense (stuffed 11 vs Evloev, 8 vs Tucker) and believes his physical attributes and kickboxing make him live. He thinks the line moved too far in Zalal's favor and sees value on Choi.

"i'll roll with troy but realistically i i i just i don't think he's going to come out here and dominate i think it's going to be a very close fight that could go either way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Zalal is a well-rounded fighter with good cardio and a solid ground game. He should be able to mix in takedowns and grind out a decision. Choi has a tough run in the UFC and tends to fade as fights go on. Zalal's pace and pressure will be too much. I expect Zalal to win by decision, using his wrestling and volume striking.

Zalal by decision
"i'm going with yusuf's the law i think he wins this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The MMA Guru picks the underdog SeungWoo Choi, believing the odds should be even. He highlights Choi's Muay Thai background and reach advantage, and doubts Zalal's offensive grappling ability to expose Choi's ground game. He predicts Choi will piece Zalal up on the feet for two rounds, possibly slowing in the third, winning a 30-27 decision.

30-27 decision
"I'm going with the underdog in sung wu choi to get the upset against yusuf salao"
Julian Erosa - Fight History
LOSS vs Lerryan Douglas
KO R1 3:33 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 17 of 46 36% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lerryan Douglas 2 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 17 of 46 36% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Lerryan Douglas 2 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 17 of 46 36% 13 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerryan Douglas 29 of 48 60% 18 of 37 3 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 39 2 of 6 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 17 of 46 36% 13 of 40 2 of 2 2 of 4 16 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerryan Douglas 29 of 48 60% 18 of 37 3 of 3 8 of 8 25 of 39 2 of 6 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Angelo picks Lando Vannata (Lerryan Douglas) as the more skilled fighter, cleaner and faster, and less hittable than Julian Erosa. He thinks Erosa's pressure could be a factor but believes Vannata's technique will prevail. He notes the odds are appropriate.

"I think Lando's the more skilled fighter. He's cleaner, he's faster, far less hittable than the borderline human punching bag in Julian Erosa."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Big Brady picks Lerryan Douglas to win by second-round knockout. He praises Douglas's power, calling him one of the hardest hitters in the featherweight division. He criticizes Julian Erosa's chin, noting he has been knocked out seven times and has poor striking defense. He expects a violent fight and believes Douglas will connect and knock Erosa out brutally.

Douglas by KO round 2
"Give me Lariano Douglas to win this fight and win it by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Cody favors Douglas to land a knockout due to Erosa's questionable chin and low hands. He acknowledges Erosa's path to victory via submission but thinks Douglas's power will prevail.

"Douglas probably just does catch him at some point."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Connor picks Douglas, expecting a flattening. He notes that Erosa is losing a step and looks slow and cumbersome, as seen in the Elkins and Costa fights. Douglas is a fast power puncher who sells out, and if he catches Erosa early, he can finish him. However, he acknowledges that if Erosa survives the first round, he tends to win.

Odds: Douglas opened -350, now -300; Erosa opened +285, now +250. Connor says odds are too wide.
"I think I'm going to take the flattening. I'm going to pick Douglas."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

Daniel expects Douglas to knock out Erosa, citing Erosa's weak chin and Douglas's left hook power. He warns that if Douglas doesn't finish early, Erosa could make it competitive, but ultimately picks Douglas by KO.

"I'm going to pick Lerone Douglas to come out here and knock out Julian Erosa with a left hook."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

The host sees value on Erosa as an underdog, believing the odds are too wide. Erosa is tough, has great cardio, and applies relentless pressure, which could trouble debutant Douglas. However, Erosa's recent poor fight IQ (losing to a one-legged opponent) gives pause. The host prefers the fight spread (+3.5) on Erosa rather than the moneyline, as he expects a competitive fight.

Likes Erosa +3.5 fight spread and over 1.5 rounds.
"All the value lies on Erosa this weekend. You'd be crazy to bet Douglas."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

The host thinks Douglas will find a knockout due to his power and Erosa's defensive flaws, but he is cautious because Erosa's chin held up in his last fight. He expects Douglas to expose Erosa's awkward striking exits but acknowledges the risk if Erosa's durability holds. He suggests the knockout prop might be the play.

knockout
"I think he finds the knockout. I think he exposes the flaws in the uh the defensive striking game of Julian Rosa... I'm going to go Douglas by knockout, but I'm just a little bit queasy about that type of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it dog or pass. He considers Erosa's value but doesn't commit, suggesting live betting Erosa after the first round.

"I'm going to say dog or pass for the purposes of this show."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Lerryan Douglas

The MMA Guru picks Lerryan Douglas, calling him a 'clobberer' who throws heat-seeking punches. He believes Douglas's power and fast starts will be too much for Julian Erosa, whose chin is questionable. He notes Douglas's training at Bloodline MMA with Cub Swanson and Danny Silva as a positive. He predicts a KO in the first round.

KO in round 1
"We're going with Larry and Douglas. And also Larry and Douglas trains with uh Bloodline MMA."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane picks Erosa just for fun, calling it a coin flip. He notes that Douglas is awful moving backward and collapses inward, while Erosa is capable of pushing forward and has a vicious clinch game. He points out that Erosa has survived early trouble before and that Douglas's losses come from guys who gave him what he asked for and he couldn't handle it.

Odds: Douglas opened -350, now -300; Erosa opened +285, now +250. Zane says odds should be closer.
"I'll take Arosa just for fun."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 69 of 173 39% 85 of 202 3 of 10 30% 0 0 3:34
Melquizael Costa 0 102 of 204 50% 128 of 236 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:36
Melquizael Costa 0 32 of 75 42% 32 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Julian Erosa 0 23 of 54 42% 30 of 62 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:56
Melquizael Costa 0 33 of 55 60% 47 of 70 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:08
3 Julian Erosa 0 36 of 93 38% 45 of 113 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:02
Melquizael Costa 0 37 of 74 50% 49 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 69 of 173 39% 42 of 140 18 of 24 9 of 9 55 of 150 13 of 21 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 102 of 204 50% 67 of 160 16 of 22 19 of 22 99 of 196 3 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 1 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2
Melquizael Costa 32 of 75 42% 14 of 52 7 of 10 11 of 13 32 of 73 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 23 of 54 42% 11 of 40 8 of 10 4 of 4 15 of 43 8 of 11 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 33 of 55 60% 25 of 46 3 of 4 5 of 5 31 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Julian Erosa 36 of 93 38% 26 of 81 9 of 11 1 of 1 31 of 83 5 of 10 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 37 of 74 50% 28 of 62 6 of 8 3 of 4 36 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-192), Erosa (+160)

Round 1
Although much can be said about the state of UFC matchmaking as of late, the promotion knew exactly what it was doing when it matched Erosa (31-11, 9-7 UFC) against Costa (23-7, 4-2 UFC). It chose violence. The featherweights will go for broke under the watchful eye of referee Herb Dean, and they get right to it after embracing the formality of bumping fists. Costa prods with the ball of his foot, looking for low kicks as Erosa walks him down. Costa keeps working on the front leg as Erosa gives him one back, and Erosa grabs his foe’s foot and lifts it up. Costa bounces off the fence to get his limb back, and he whiffs on two hooks. Costa scores a body kick as he stays on the outside, and after pitching a leg kick, he trips on the edge of the cage but does not fall over. Erosa lets him get up and continues to trade kicks with him, and Costa mixes things up with a surprise Superman punch. Costa follows it with a booming head kick that rocks “Juicy J,” who backs off to the fence but is still dangerous as a coiled snake. Costa walks forward to throw bombs, and Erosa snipes him with a mean right hand that makes him think twice. Erosa gets his legs back beneath him and blocks a head kick, walking Costa down but taking three punches on the chin to do so. Erosa fakes a spin and lunges forward with an elbow, slipping and falling over. Costa lets him up so he can leap at him with a knee, and he chains punches into a body kick as Erosa is now the one retreating. Costa parries a few punches and lets fly a left hand, and his second effort reaches his man. Costa wraps a head kick around the guard and Erosa shrugs it off, nailing Costa with a right hand over the top. Erosa jumps at his foe to attack, and Costa times a spinning back kick that pounds into the cup. Erosa grumbles and adjusts his groin supporter before waving Dean off. Costa lets his foe’s fists and feet whiz past him so he can deliver a hard body kick, and Erosa fakes his way in to take the fight down. Erosa whips Costa all the way around to take him down, and he slashes down with an elbow as soon as he gets to side control. Costa is warned for having his toes in the cage, and Erosa drops down a few punches and leans back to watch an upkick buzz past him at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Costa’s left foot is leaking blood as the second round begins, but he shrugs it off and touches gloves with his opponent. Erosa gets right into attack mode, firing off a head kick and a right hand but getting countered with a left and a body kick. Costa belts “Juicy J” with a left hand, and Erosa bites down on his mouthpiece to unload a power punch. Costa shakes Erosa up with a one-two, and Erosa again has to recover before coming forward. The punches of Costa make Erosa pursue a takedown, and Costa defends with a guillotine choke and stands back up to re-secure it. Erosa holds on and leverages Costa back down, but he in submission danger again. Costa lets go before burning his arms out, and he stands up. Erosa leans on from behind, his left eye swelling up fast. Costa defends a takedown effort and keeps his balance, stomping Erosa’s foot and receiving an elbow in the face for his effort. As Erosa is leaning heavily on his man, Costa sweeps his leg and puts him down for a second. Erosa climbs back up and walks through a one-two. Costa reaches the Washington native at the end of a left hand, and Erosa fires back with a vengeance. They reach one another with long punches, and instead of clinching, Erosa pushes off and shrugs at him. Costa lines up a solid crescent kick that hits the target, and Erosa goes for broke with punches and kicks to any target he can find. Erosa pokes Costa in the eye, and Costa tells them he is fine and keeps going. Erosa thanks him by drilling a spinning back kick in his ribs, and Costa laughs it off and throws hammers. Erosa staggers Costa with a pair of hooks, and a grinning Costa swings back with bad intentions and rocks Erosa. Erosa spins through to hit Costa in the face with his foot, and he knocks Costa across the cage with a left hand right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 3
While Erosa does touch gloves, he is a man on a mission. Walking Costa down immediately, he swings his way into a clinch. Erosa leans on the Brazilian to slow him down, getting off the occasional knee until Costa trips him and sets him down. Erosa responds by nailing Costa with an upkick and working his way to his feet, where he backs “Melk” off and dislodges his mouthpiece with a right hand. He follows with another right hand to lead into a clinch, and Costa backs off with a left hook. The two clash heads after Erosa lands an uppercut, and “Juicy J” pours it on while swinging wildly. Costa’s head movement keeps him relatively safe, and he blasts Erosa in the jaw with four punches in a combination. Erosa’s movement leads him to banging into the fence, but he is quick to shake it off and uppercut Costa in the chops. Erosa continues staying in Costa’s face, with punches that lead to an elbow as Costa is backing off but smiling. Erosa lines up punches in bunches, and his elbows are not accurate. They proceed to brawl it out with little regard to defense or cardio, and even though Costa is fatigued, he is still loading up with everything he has. Thankfully for those watching this carnage, Erosa is doing just the same, as they proceed to hammer one another in the jaw again and again. Costa trips Erosa up to get a second to breathe, and he backs off to avoid an upkick and let Erosa stand. Erosa marches ever forward, swinging recklessly while Costa is giving it back when he can. Costa takes several punches square on the jaw and offers up a knee, and Erosa spins with a back fist. A second and third back fist from Erosa do manage to rail into the Brazilian, who is as tough as nails and never falters. The action-packed “Fight of the Night” candidate goes the distance, and both exhausted men raise their arms. The second round may be where the victor emerges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erosa (29-28 Erosa)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa (29-28 Costa)

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Julian Erosa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa with high confidence, stating that Costa should be better everywhere. He notes Costa's creative striking, solid grappling, and incredible scrambles. His only concern is Costa's activity level, as this will be his fifth fight in 12 months, which could lead to nagging injuries or fatigue. However, Angelo is not overly concerned and expects Costa to win.

"Mel Costa. I am very confident in this pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa as a dog, acknowledging Costa could knock him out early. He notes Costa's quick turnaround and tendency to slow down, while Erosa has great cardio and a nasty choke game. He predicts Erosa wins by second-round submission if it gets extended.

Erosa by submission, round 2
"I like a Rosa here as a dog. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The host notes Costa's aggressiveness and unorthodox striking can catch Erosa off guard, especially since six of Erosa's seven losses have come by knockout. He feels Costa can take advantage of Erosa's mistakes and get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.

Costa by KO/TKO; under 2.5 rounds
"I think his just aggressiveness and unorthodox striking approach can really catch Arosa offguard."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Melquizael Costa

The Guru picks Melquizael Costa, calling him a fellow 'fraud checker' who can handle Julian Erosa's gritty style. He notes Costa's grappling looked improved against Christian Rodriguez and his kicks are very good. He worries about Erosa's upset potential but believes Costa is better and more active. He predicts a TKO or decision win.

"I'm going to have to go with Malikisel Costa. I think he's just better by far than Julian Rosa."
WIN vs Darren Elkins
KO R1 4:15 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 13 of 31 41% 18 of 45 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:48
Julian Erosa 0 54 of 73 73% 69 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 13 of 31 41% 11 of 28 1 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Julian Erosa 54 of 73 73% 52 of 71 0 of 0 2 of 2 22 of 39 11 of 12 21 of 22
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.

"Rosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favor. You go out there and you handle, you know, the kind of old decrepit 40-year-old vet, and that's exactly what he did."
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:49 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 35 of 88 39% 39 of 94 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Christian Rodriguez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 35 of 88 39% 27 of 73 7 of 13 1 of 2 33 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Christian Rodriguez 33 of 75 44% 26 of 67 2 of 2 5 of 6 31 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-205), Erosa (+170)

Round 1
Always willing to either add to his highlight reel or be a part of someone else’s, Erosa (29-11, 7-7 UFC) and his .500 record come to a head with Roufusport’s Rodriguez (11-1, 4-1 UFC). While “CeeRod” holds four wins on the scorecards, three of those have come in his last three outings. On the other hand, the last three walks to the cage for Erosa have ended in the first round. Whether it takes three minute or three rounds to get to a result, referee Nick Berens will be here for it from start to finish. The featherweights bump fists, and Erosa uses a front kick to keep Rodriguez away. Rodriguez passes right past it and puts his hands on Erosa’s face. Erosa is reddened up in a hurry from the quick punches from Rodriguez, and he answers with a pair of looping uppercuts. Erosa flicks out his jab, and Rodriguez dips down and smashes him in the face with a head kick. As they trade, Rodriguez’ mouthpiece goes flying, and Erosa sees it and decides it is time to brawl. They slug it out fast and furiously until Berens finds a moment to replace the gumshield, and they get right back to it. Erosa goads Rodriguez on, and he clips “CeeRod” with a right hand in the midst of a speedy combination. They both connect with powerful blows, and Erosa gets off a strong front kick. Rodriguez kicks his man upside the head, and Erosa tells him to bring it on. Rodriguez does just that. Erosa manages to get Rodriguez to take a step back with his own counters, and his front kick to the chest and face are able to keep the hard-charging Rodriguez relatively at bay. Rodriguez settles down and tosses out a low kick, and Erosa wags his finger at him and rings his bell an elbow. Erosa walks his man down and pounds him in the face with his fists, and Rodriguez responds with a flurry ending with a right hand that staggers Erosa back. Erosa gathers his thoughts and marches forward, a cut opened on the bridge of his nose, and he lets go with a head kick that is blocked. Another elbow from Erosa comes up short, and he catches a kick and bowls and trips Rodriguez to the mat. Erosa scrambles to take Rodriguez’ back and set up a body triangle, and he is quick to consider an armbar instead of going after the neck like usual. Rodriguez defends the possible submission and turns to his knees, and he manages to flip Erosa over. Erosa’s upkicks do not keep Rodriguez off of him, as Rodriguez leaps at him and punches him hard.
Erosa ignores them and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and it is suddenly and surprisingly tight. Erosa tightens his legs around the waist of his foe and turns to the side, and falls to his back to complete the submission. Rodriguez tries to tough it out, but he is forced to surrender with seconds left on the clock.
Erosa sits up and shoves Rodriguez off of him when Berens intervenes, springing yet another upset and adding one more impressive stoppage to his ledger. The victorious "Juicy J" becomes the first fighter to finish Rodriguez as a professional.

The Official Result
Julian Erosa def. Christian Rodriguez R1 4:49 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Angelo picks Christian Rodriguez but with caution, noting that Rodriguez has been gifted decisions and has never faced a veteran as experienced as Julian Erosa. He acknowledges Rodriguez's slick striking and composure but points out his lack of finishing ability and the fact that Erosa is much larger and more experienced. Angelo warns that the odds seem wide for a fighter who lost to the last tough veteran he faced.

"I do think Christian Rodriguez wins this fight but the odds seem wide two to one favorite 3 to one favorite that seems wide"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez, highlighting his youth, cardio, and striking advantage. He notes Erosa's history of getting knocked out and believes Rodriguez will overwhelm him with volume and power. He expects a finish, possibly in the first or second round.

"Rodriguez just crushes him like first round knockout."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Christian Rodriguez to win, predicting his first UFC knockout. He notes that Rodriguez has handed prospects their first losses and that Erosa's chin is a massive liability. He advises Rodriguez to headhunt rather than engage in a technical battle. He believes Rodriguez will pass the Erosa test.

by KO
"I'm gonna go Christian Rodriguez here to get it done and continue the big win streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Christian Rodriguez is the slicker striker and one of the best prospects on the roster. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, he will crash the pocket, land combinations, and eventually drop Erosa, leading to a knockout or a club-and-sub opportunity.

"I think Rodriguez is one of the best if not the best prospect on the roster right now and I think you'll showcase it once again by picking up the biggest win of his UFC career"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Christian Rodriguez

Paul picks Rodriguez, citing his superior cardio and durability. He notes Erosa's knockout losses and believes Rodriguez's pressure will be too much. He acknowledges Erosa's length but thinks Rodriguez's pace will win the fight.

"I'll be going with Christian Rodriguez as well."
WIN vs Ricardo Ramos
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:15 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:27
Ricardo Ramos 0 4 of 11 36% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:27
Ricardo Ramos 0 4 of 11 36% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Ricardo Ramos 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 7 of 17 41% 5 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
Ricardo Ramos 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo leans towards Julian Erosa as an underdog, citing his higher level of competition and ability to weather a storm and grind out a decision. He notes that Ramos is dangerous but also finishable, while Erosa is tough and can dog fights out. He will monitor the line movement for better value.

"I'm going to lean the underdog here I'm going to go with Julian he has the much higher level of competition under his belt and I can see him weathering a storm and then grinding out a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos, citing Julian Erosa's poor durability (knocked out seven times at featherweight) and low striking defense (47%). He notes Erosa is hittable and his chin is not getting better after back-to-back knockout losses. He expects Ramos to land something and knock Erosa out in the first round.

first round knockout
"I'm taking ricado Ramos I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody picks Erosa as an underdog, citing his volume and unorthodox style. He acknowledges Erosa's weak chin but believes Ramos is not a big power puncher and may struggle with Erosa's pressure. Cody thinks Erosa can win by decision or late finish if he avoids getting knocked out.

"I will take this ever so slight Underdog play here on Juicy J Julian orosa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Daniel Vreeland picks Ricardo Ramos by first-round knockout, emphasizing that Erosa has a terrible chin and has been dropped multiple times. He believes Ramos should head-hunt and sell out for the finish, as Erosa is dangerous if the fight extends. He notes if it goes past the first round, all bets are off.

Ramos by first-round knockout
"I think Ramos is gonna come out here and get a ko1"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

Ramos has the grappling edge and should be able to muzzle Erosa's unorthodox striking. Erosa is on a two-fight KO loss streak and may be on the chopping block. Ramos should dictate the pace and win on the scorecards, possibly even latching onto a submission. The fight going to decision is also appealing at plus money.

Fight goes to decision (plus money)
"I think that we'll see the better body of work from hamos and I think we'll see him win this fight on the scorecards I think the fight to go to decision is what I like the most."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa by KO, noting Ramos's cardio issues and tendency to struggle when missing weight. He believes Erosa's volume and durability will overwhelm Ramos. Paul also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm thinking orosa by KO is where I would think here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ricardo Ramos

The MMA Guru picks Ricardo Ramos over Julian Erosa, citing Ramos's finishing potential and Erosa's recent chin issues. He mentions Erosa's KO losses to Fernando Padilla and Alex Caceres, and a war with Steven Peterson that makes him doubt Erosa. He predicts a first-round KO for Ramos.

round one KO
"I'm going with Ricardo Ramos... this boy is getting chinned by Ricardo Ramos in round one"
TKO (punches) R1 1:41 · UFC on ESPN: Song vs. Simon · Apr 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Fernando Padilla 0 15 of 24 62% 15 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julian Erosa 1 20 of 29 68% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Fernando Padilla 15 of 24 62% 9 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5 15 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 20 of 29 68% 17 of 25 2 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Fernando Padilla

Cody picks Padilla as an underdog, citing Erosa's durability issues and tendency to get knocked out. He notes that Padilla has decent power and could catch Erosa early. However, he is flip-floppy and admits he wants to pick Erosa due to experience, but the favorite tag on a chinny fighter makes him lean towards the underdog.

"for the purposes of the show I need some underdogs and I'll I'm gonna take Padilla but like ah I want to take a Rosa I really really do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Connor thinks Erosa's experience and durability will prevail. He notes Padilla's poor defense and tendency to gas, and that Erosa gets stronger as fights go on. He acknowledges Erosa's history of getting KO'd but believes Padilla's lack of power and technical striking make it less likely. He sees Erosa as the more versatile fighter in messy exchanges.

Odds mentioned: Erosa opened -252, currently -140. Padilla opened +218, currently +126. Connor thinks the odds should be closer to 50/50.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa but very cautiously, acknowledging his chin issues and recent knockout losses. He notes that Erosa is talented and exciting but has been knocked out by light punchers. He is not confident enough to bet on Erosa, but for the pick he goes with Erosa, hoping he doesn't get cracked again.

"I'm gonna be picking Julian Arosa but uh ever so cautiously because that chin can get cracked and has got cracked"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Zane agrees, citing Padilla's limited game and Erosa's ability to win scrambles and late rounds. He notes Padilla's submissions off his back but thinks Erosa's aggression and cardio will be decisive. He sees Erosa as the rightful slight favorite.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm going to take your Rosa as well."
LOSS vs Alex Caceres
TKO (head kick and punches) R1 3:04 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Caceres 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Caceres 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Caceres 16 of 30 53% 9 of 19 3 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 6
Julian Erosa 10 of 22 45% 2 of 11 3 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Caceres 16 of 30 53% 9 of 19 3 of 6 4 of 5 13 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 6
Julian Erosa 10 of 22 45% 2 of 11 3 of 4 5 of 7 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo is very confident in Julian Erosa, believing he can win the stand-up exchanges and stay alive on the ground. He notes Erosa has more power, volume, and good enough takedowns to keep Caceres guessing. He acknowledges Caceres' experience could sneak out a win but thinks Erosa is dangerous and well-rounded enough.

"I love Julian erosa in this spot and he's one of the few confident picks I have on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Big Brady picks Julian Erosa, noting that Erosa is typically an underdog but is favored here. He likes Erosa's volume, pressure, power, and submission game. He thinks Caceres lacks power and has been submitted many times. He expects Erosa to break Caceres and get a second-round submission.

Erosa wins by submission in round 2
"I like a Rosa to kind of break because Sarah says the fight goes on and I'll say Rosa gets a second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody picks Erosa, noting his inconsistency but coming off a good performance against Hakeem Dawodu. He thinks Erosa has all the intangibles: volume, movement, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Caceres is a gatekeeper who beats lower-level guys but loses to legit fighters. He expects Erosa to outwork Caceres and win by decision.

Erosa by decision
"I gotta go with that man he looks so complete against Hakeem... I think Rosa wins gross wins by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)

The host bet the over 2.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks both guys are durable and neither has big knockout power, so it should go to decision. He leans Erosa to win but doesn't like the -170 moneyline. No clear winner pick.

Over 2.5 rounds at -155, 1.55 units; mentioned Erosa by decision
"I don't really think considers has that big pop in his shots to put him down and put him out same on the erosa side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa, agreeing with Cody. He notes his biggest concern with Erosa is his chin against power punchers, but Caceres is not a one-hitter quitter. He expects Erosa to clear 65.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, as he throws high volume and the fight likely goes to decision.

Erosa over 65.5 significant strikes (PrizePicks)
"I will be adding erosa significant strikes more than 65.5 on price picks"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa over Alex Caceres, believing Erosa's pace, pressure, and wrestling will be too much. He notes Caceres is vegan and Erosa goes to the body a lot, which could be a factor. He thinks Caceres won't finish Erosa, and Erosa's grappling is too good to get submitted. He predicts a third-round finish or decision win for Erosa, citing his recent wins over Hakeem Dawodu and Nate Landwehr.

"I'll go Juliana Rosa I think it's time to stop doubting him as a fighter"
WIN vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 74 of 147 50% 90 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
Hakeem Dawodu 0 92 of 188 48% 152 of 257 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 31 of 57 54% 36 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 48 of 87 55% 60 of 99 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
2 Julian Erosa 0 21 of 39 53% 28 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 51 43% 47 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
3 Julian Erosa 0 22 of 51 43% 26 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
Hakeem Dawodu 0 22 of 50 44% 45 of 78 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 74 of 147 50% 43 of 109 18 of 21 13 of 17 57 of 126 16 of 20 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 92 of 188 48% 60 of 149 28 of 32 4 of 7 59 of 149 24 of 30 9 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 31 of 57 54% 14 of 36 10 of 12 7 of 9 23 of 48 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 48 of 87 55% 32 of 67 15 of 16 1 of 4 34 of 72 14 of 15 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 21 of 39 53% 16 of 34 2 of 2 3 of 3 16 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 3 11 of 35 6 of 11 5 of 5
3 Julian Erosa 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 6 of 7 3 of 5 18 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 1
Hakeem Dawodu 22 of 50 44% 15 of 43 7 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 42 4 of 4 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Hakeem Dawodu, citing his technical striking and power. He notes Erosa relies on his chin and was losing to a lower-level striker before getting late takedowns. He thinks Dawodu's technicality and power will be too much, and he has a moneyline bet on Dawodu.

moneyline bet on Dawodu
"I love Hakeem Dawodu I love him in this fight I have a money line bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by second-round knockout, praising Dawodu's striking and power. He notes Julian Erosa is very hittable and has been knocked out multiple times, while Dawodu looked phenomenal in his last fight. He believes Dawodu is the better striker and will land clean, though he acknowledges Erosa is always in exciting fights and could finish himself.

second round knockout
"I think Keem knocks him out I'll say in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Cody picks Hakeem Dawodu, noting his clean technical striking and that he is a better striker than Erosa. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at plus money, as Erosa is a wild fighter who often leads to finishes. He believes Dawodu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing and that he will pick Erosa apart.

Under 2.5 rounds at +120
"i think the wadu wins but i like the under more um for my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Daniel Levi picks Hakeem Dawodu confidently. He praises Dawodu's technical striking, low stance, and volume, and considers him a top-15 featherweight. He notes Erosa's tendency to get dropped but come back, but believes Dawodu's technical soundness will prevent a comeback. Levi sees Dawodu winning by knockout or decision.

"I do have hakim dawa do to win this fight but i gotta give credit to arosa."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Jacob agrees, saying if the fight stays clean, Dawodu dominates in a kickboxing match. He notes Erosa's only chance is to turn it into a brawl, but Dawodu has good takedown defense. He thinks Dawodu should win easily but might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup as an underdog.

might sprinkle Erosa into a DraftKings lineup
"If this stays clean there is not many people in the UFC in the featherweight division that are gonna beat Hakeem in a clean kickboxing match."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The host is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, expecting his crisp striking, discipline, and distance management to outpoint the wild and hittable Erosa. He sees a decision win as the most likely path and notes Dawodu's decision prop at +140.

Hakeem Dawodu by decision (+140)
"Give me Hakeem Dawodu by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Paul is confident in Hakeem Dawodu, calling him one of his anchors. He praises Dawodu's Muay Thai and technique, and believes his takedown defense is sufficient. He expects Dawodu to win by late stoppage or decision, as Erosa is wild and loopy with his strikes. He notes that Erosa fights down to his opponent's level.

"at -220 i feel like hakeem is going to be one of my anchors this week i think he's a better striker takedown defense is good enough to keep this fight standing"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2022 (fight day)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu to win by 29-28 decision, losing the third round but winning the first two. He notes Dawodu had a bad weight cut, so Erosa's pace may get to him later. Dawodu will pick at Erosa at range, chew up his leg, land body shots, and win clinch exchanges. Erosa may steal the third round with pressure, but Dawodu's first two rounds secure the win.

decision 29-28
"I think we're gonna see a 29-28 decision by Hakeem dawadu losing the third round but winning the first two"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo picks Julian Erosa, noting his violence, aggression, and multiple ways to win (KO or submission). He acknowledges Erosa relies on his chin but thinks he has more paths to victory than Choi, who can only win by KO. He has a bet on the fight going under 2.5 rounds at +125 and also bet on it not going the distance at +105.

under 2.5 rounds (+125, half unit); does not go the distance (+105)
"julian rosa is my pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Big Brady thinks Choi is the much better striker and that Erosa is very hittable with a weak chin. He expects a knockout, predicting Choi finishes Erosa in the second round. He considered betting but decided to pass.

win by KO in round 2
"I'm going to take sangwoo choi to knock out juliana rosa"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Cody picks Choi, citing Choi's physical strength, excellent jab, and durability. He acknowledges Erosa's pressure and volume but believes Choi's jab and ability to stay on the outside will carry him to a competitive decision win. He notes Choi's fatigue in the third round of his last fight but thinks Erosa's pressure could be neutralized.

"i myself see my uh myself going with seongwoo choi again i think that he's physically stronger than woodson uh he's got a better chin than nate lanware"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Daniel Levi picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his physicality, size, and technical striking. He notes that Choi has been improving and is now more comfortable in the UFC, while Erosa has a tendency to fight with his hands down and has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Choi's technique and strength will be too much for Erosa, and expects a dominant performance.

"i'm going to go with sung wu choi to get the biggest uh biggest win of his career and also have the best performance of his career"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

Jacob picks SeungWoo Choi, citing his speed and precise in-and-out striking. He believes Choi can stuff takedowns and keep the distance, avoiding Erosa's dirty boxing and submissions. He also mentions a pattern where Erosa alternates wins and losses, predicting a loss here. He has Choi in his lineup.

"sing woo choy is gonna win and he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
SeungWoo Choi

The host picks SeungWoo Choi, believing his Muay Thai and technical striking will overcome Julian Erosa's wild, loopy shots. He notes Choi's improving takedown defense and that Erosa's brawling style plays into Choi's counters. He expects Choi to keep the fight standing and outpoint Erosa over 15 minutes, possibly earning a decision. He mentions Choi's win over Youssef Zalal as evidence of his growth, and that Erosa's wrestling is not better than Gavin Tucker's, which Choi handled.

Choi by decision at +190 mentioned as a good line
"i'm gonna take troy to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul picks Erosa by KO as a YOLO play, noting Erosa's recent knockout wins and Choi's history of being knocked out. He also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He acknowledges the risk but likes Erosa's pressure and volume.

Erosa by KO +700; under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'm on the under two and a half plus 120 and i'm on uh juicy j by ko plus 700 tell me i'm wrong"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Julian Erosa

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa to win by submission (d'arce choke) in round three. He expects Choi to land good shots early, but Erosa will make it messy in round two, forcing clinches and takedowns. In round three, Erosa will lure Choi into a war, Choi will lose composure and shoot a bad takedown, allowing Erosa to latch on a d'arce choke.

submission win, third round, d'arce choke
"i'm going to go with julian arosa darsh choke submission in round three"