UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes Next Fight
Age 38
Height 6' 4"
Reach 84.0"
Weight 248 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Jon Jones
4.38 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
2.24 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.89 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
95.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dominick Reyes
5.39 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.49 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
0.29 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Jon Jones - Fight History
WIN vs Stipe Miocic
TKO (spinning back kick and punches) R3 4:29 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 1 96 of 119 80% 104 of 128 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:51
Stipe Miocic 0 37 of 89 41% 42 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 42 of 48 87% 49 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Stipe Miocic 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stipe Miocic 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 1 34 of 43 79% 35 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Stipe Miocic 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 96 of 119 80% 70 of 91 16 of 18 10 of 10 54 of 70 2 of 3 40 of 46
Stipe Miocic 37 of 89 41% 24 of 75 7 of 8 6 of 6 32 of 83 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 42 of 48 87% 36 of 42 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 42
Stipe Miocic 6 of 13 46% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Jon Jones 20 of 28 71% 9 of 16 7 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 16 of 37 43% 9 of 29 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 34 of 43 79% 25 of 33 5 of 6 4 of 4 30 of 37 1 of 2 3 of 4
Stipe Miocic 15 of 39 38% 12 of 36 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 34 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Angelo is very confident in Jon Jones, citing his all-around greatness, youth, and activity compared to Stipe Miocic, who is a full-time fireman on a four-year layoff. He expects Jones to take Miocic down early and dominate. He thinks Jones should be -1500 and will win easily.

Angelo comments on the odds, saying Jones at -700 is a good value and should be -1500.
"Jon Jones is going to win this fight I think he makes it look easy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but expects a slow, disappointing fight. He notes that Stipe Miocic is old and washed, having looked slow against Francis Ngannou four years ago, but he doesn't think Jones will finish him early. He cites Jones' recent lackluster performances against Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos. He predicts a decision win for Jones and likes the over on 40.5 significant strikes for Jones on PrizePicks.

Jon Jones over 40.5 significant strikes
"give me Jon Jones here to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Cody picks Jon Jones, citing Jones' legendary durability and distance management. He notes Stipe is 43, hasn't fought in 3.5 years, and looked slow against Ngannou. Cody expects Jones to win a 49-46 decision or possibly get a late submission, but sees the fight going the distance. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"I got Jones by decision the over two and a half but again this is a fun fight but it's it's not the Crown Jewel on this card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor also picks Jones, emphasizing that Stipe is old and likely shot, and that Jones's wrestling and size will be too much. He notes that Stipe's last performance against Ngannou was poor and he looked aimless. Connor expects Jones to take Stipe down and submit him, possibly after a tentative first round.

Jones by submission or TKO; fight may be slow early then finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Daniel Vreeland picks Jon Jones to win, citing Jones' superior MMA wrestling, takedown defense (95%), reach advantage, and younger age. He believes Jones will use oblique kicks to immobilize Stipe, mix in takedowns, and dictate the pace. He acknowledges Stipe's boxing and wrestling credentials but thinks Jones' overall MMA game is superior. He notes that Stipe hasn't fought since 2021 and may have declined.

"I do have to go with Jones here to just come out here and uh show why he's one of the most dominant fighters to ever do it"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Vreeland picks Jones emphatically, calling it tragic that this fight is happening. He notes Stipe hasn't fought anyone well-rounded since 2018, is 42, semi-retired, and was knocked out badly by Ngannou. Vreeland believes Jones will win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and that Stipe will look old when he gets knocked out.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm taking Jon Jones like no I it's it's tragic that this is like the fight... there's no reason to like stie miic in this fight"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Fox picks Jones, agreeing that Stipe has no chance. He notes Jones is younger, has a reach advantage, and is the better fighter everywhere. Fox expects Jones to win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and thinks Stipe's chin is compromised after the Ngannou KO.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm Jon Jones all the way in this one... he's 100% gonna win this fight by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Lucrative James picks Jon Jones to win, citing Stipe Miocic's age (42) and four-year layoff as major concerns. He believes Stipe will look stiff and has lost athleticism, while Jones has an iron chin, superior striking at all ranges, and much better MMA wrestling and grappling. He predicts Jones will win inside the distance, likely within the first two rounds, and notes that Jones can win however he wants if Stipe is a shell of his former self.

wins inside the distance, wins in first two rounds
"I'm taking Jon Jones to win here. I'm taking Jon Jones to win inside the distance here and I'm taking Jon Jones to win within the first two rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Jon Jones

The host expects Jones to continue his dominant ways as he did against Gane, getting to his grappling and keeping Miocic on his back. He mentions Jones might use 12-to-6 elbows but ultimately finds the neck and gets a submission victory.

submission
"I do believe Jones will be able to continue his dominant ways just as he showcased against sraon last time around and I think we'll see him get to his grappl and keep mius on his back dominate him from …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones, calling it a freak show fight. He argues Jones has fought weak competition and had close fights with lesser opponents, but Stipe is faded and hasn't fought in three years. Paul expects Jones to win by decision, possibly 49-46, and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He notes Jones' distance management and Stipe's age and inactivity.

over 2.5 rounds
"I would think that Jones has got more than enough left in the tank to just pinpoint this guy and uh you know win a 4946 type decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones, expecting a finish in the first or second round. He describes Jones's oblique kicks and clinch work breaking down the 42-year-old Miocic. He predicts a guillotine choke after a takedown, noting Stipe's tendency to scramble into submissions.

finish in first or second round, guillotine choke
"I'm going to go Jon Jones by finish in the first or second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Zane picks Jones, noting that Stipe is old and inactive, having not fought in over three years and showing no interest in fighting. He expects a slog for a round or two, then Jones will take Stipe down and finish him via submission or ground-and-pound. Zane mentions Jones's wrestling and size advantage, and that Stipe's chin and durability are questionable at this stage.

Jones finishes inside the distance, likely submission or TKO; fight may be a slog early then quick finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."
WIN vs Ciryl Gane
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:04 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jones (-155), Gane (+135)

Round 1
This one is for all the marbles. The heavyweight strap is officially on the line with the relinquishment of Francis Ngannou’s heavyweight crown and his subsequent release. The challengers for the vacant strap will be former light heavyweight king Jones (26-1, 1 NC; 20-1, 1 NC UFC), who is taking his first trip up to this division and weighed 248 pounds, against ex-interim champ Gane (11-1, 8-1 UFC). Surprising many, Gane checked in a half pound lighter than Jones. These big men have 25 minutes to work and establish themselves, and referee Marc Goddard will receive the final assignment of the night. After a touch of gloves and Gane patting Jones’ chest, it’s on. Jones comes out of his corner like usual, climbing upright, and the two throw at one another immediately. Jones fires a punch up top, and Gane responds with a low kick that slams into Jones’ cup and causes a pause in the first 10 seconds of the bout. Jones takes 30 seconds to clear it out, and they get back to action. Jones takes a low kick to stick the Frenchman with a right hand, and he walks Gane down firing at him. Jones sweeps low with a kick, and Gane replies with a similar blow. Jones walks through a jab and marches Gane down, pressuring the Frenchman and no-selling any strikes that land on him. Jones swings with a big body shot that misses the mark, and when Gane fires off a big right hand, Jones ducks under and trips Gane out to drop him to his knees and down. Gane fights back up to his knees, and Jones slips a hook in around the side while Gane works to his feet. Jones pulls Gane down, and he sits on Gane’s knees and suddenly grips with a guillotine choke that is crushing around Gane’s noggin. Jones lets go and resets his grip to slip his forearm under the chin, and he presses his full body weight on the submission to completely fasten the guillotine. Gane is shocked, his eyes wide open, and he frantically taps out before he goes out. Jones has done it! He is a two-division UFC champion, and he made it look easy against a phenomenal opponent. His status as one of the greatest if not the greatest of all time is fully cemented with this victory, which clocked in around two minutes as his quickest since he smashed Vladimir Matyushenko in 2010. After thanking his family and training partners, Jones has one name in mind: Stipe Miocic, for International Fight Week in July. We will absolutely be here should that materialize, and we hope you are too. What a night.

The Official Result
Jon Jones def. Ciryl Gane R1 2:04 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo leans towards Ciryl Gane due to Jon Jones' three-year layoff, weight gain, and poor performance in his last fight. He notes that Gane is a technical striker with great footwork and that Jones struggled with wrestling against Dominick Reyes. Angelo is not betting on this fight.

"I think I have to pick zero gone here because of the layoff because of the unknowns because how shitty Jon Jones looked in his last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but is hesitant due to many red flags: a three-year layoff, lackluster recent performances, and moving up to heavyweight. He notes Gane's takedown defense was exposed by Ngannou, and Jones is a great wrestler. He predicts a decision win for Jones, but advises against betting on the fight due to uncertainty.

by decision; no serious bets, maybe a parlay
"give me Jon Jones as far as a pick goes here... I'll take Jon Jones to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody is very reluctant to take Jones at -160 given the three-year layoff, recent disinterested performances, and move up to heavyweight. He sees Gane as a legitimate heavyweight who fought Francis Ngannou closely, but worries about Gane's wrestling after Ngannou took him down. He ultimately takes the plus money on Gane but will wait for weigh-ins to see Jones's physique.

Will wait for weigh-ins before locking in; mentions live betting as a possibility
"ever so reluctantly is take the plus money here on Cyril gone but I am going to wait for weigh-ins to really see what's going on"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor picks Jones but with significant hesitation. He believes Jones's forward pressure and consistent use of a few tools (lead hook, body kick, side kick) over five rounds will be enough to edge out Gane, despite Jones's decline in activity and wrestling. He expects a close, boring fight where Jones may get hurt but ultimately wins a decision or via a takedown from a Gane error. He notes Gane's poor defensive footwork and tendency to fall apart when pressured, but acknowledges Jones's own defensive flaws and the risk of Gane's jab and kicks.

Expects a close fight; mentions Jones opened at +140 and dropped to -165, but does not recommend a bet.
"I'm going to pick Jones to just have... I don't expect a better version of John Jones. I don't expect anything more than the late career John Jones we've seen. I just think that might still be enough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Jacob is confident in Ciryl Gane, stating that on the feet, Gane will embarrass Jones with his footwork and speed. He believes Jones will struggle to get takedowns because Gane will be ready for them. Jacob thinks Gane will pick Jones apart and win.

"on the feet cirrogon is going to embarrass Jon Jones he's going to look slow"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Jones is a dominant wrestler with unorthodox striking and a championship mindset. Gane is a slick striker but has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen against Francis Ngannou. Jones will drag the fight to the ground and use his top pressure and ground and pound to win. The weight gain shouldn't be detrimental.

surprised by the odds (-155)
"I think Jon Jones will showcase as he said in the past that there are levels to the [ __ ] and I think that Jon Jones as long as packing on the muscle and weight... I think he wins …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones but says it's a stay away from a betting perspective. He believes Jones's wrestling will be the difference, as Gane was taken down by Ngannou. However, he acknowledges the many question marks around Jones and cannot bet him at -170. He thinks Jones will win but won't put money on it.

Stay away from betting; considers live betting after first few minutes
"Jon Jones is the pick to stay away from a betting perspective for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane to upset Jon Jones, citing Jones' long layoff (over 3 years) and recent close fights. He believes Gane's range, leg kicks, and patience will trouble Jones, and that Jones' takedowns won't be as effective at heavyweight. He predicts a decision win for Gane.

"I'm going with Cyril gone to upset Jon Jones... I think he's gonna give Jones some problems."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Zane favors Gane, assuming the fight becomes a slow-paced kickboxing match where Gane's consistency, jab, and kicking variety give him the edge. He doubts Jones's wrestling will be effective due to poor entries and a clench that has deteriorated. He notes Gane's defensive flaws and potential unforced errors (like a bad takedown attempt) could cost him, but overall sees Gane as the more reliable striker at range.

"I favor Gane in this fight. My only real concern with picking him is maybe Jones has really worked on his wrestling."
Decision (unanimous) (48-47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 104 of 166 62% 107 of 170 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:41
Dominick Reyes 0 116 of 259 44% 119 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 17 of 27 62% 17 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 22 of 37 59% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 33 of 68 48% 33 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 19 of 34 55% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Dominick Reyes 0 26 of 45 57% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Dominick Reyes 0 13 of 41 31% 14 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 26 of 34 76% 28 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Dominick Reyes 0 21 of 46 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 104 of 166 62% 31 of 74 30 of 39 43 of 53 101 of 161 3 of 5 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 116 of 259 44% 41 of 169 48 of 55 27 of 35 109 of 252 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 17 of 27 62% 1 of 5 6 of 8 10 of 14 17 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 23 of 59 38% 7 of 33 11 of 14 5 of 12 20 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 22 of 37 59% 8 of 19 5 of 7 9 of 11 22 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 33 of 68 48% 11 of 46 12 of 12 10 of 10 33 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 19 of 34 55% 7 of 18 5 of 7 7 of 9 19 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 26 of 45 57% 7 of 25 13 of 14 6 of 6 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 20 of 34 58% 8 of 19 6 of 8 6 of 7 17 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 13 of 41 31% 7 of 32 4 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 26 of 34 76% 7 of 13 8 of 9 11 of 12 26 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 21 of 46 45% 9 of 33 8 of 8 4 of 5 21 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jon Jones

Daniel Levi picks Jon Jones, citing his unparalleled skill set, fight IQ, and durability. He notes that Jones has a 7-inch reach advantage and gets better as fights go on, while Reyes may fade after the first round. He expects Jones to pick Reyes apart and possibly get a ground-and-pound finish.

"I think Jon Jones gonna pick this guy apart he's gonna take him down and I think he's gonna pound him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The host picks Jon Jones, likely by decision or late finish, citing his reach, kicks, wrestling, and experience. He believes Jones will establish his range and wear down Reyes, who has not faced anyone of Jones' caliber. He plans to parlay Jones with Andrea Lee as his lock of the night play.

Parlay with Andrea Lee at -161, Jones by decision or late finish
"I am looking at John Jones and Angie Lee parlayed as my locker than I play or the under two and a half of the lingo and slaw fights there's a two plays I'm looking at as my locker than …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones to win, noting that Jones has a massive reach advantage and is more focused after time off. He warns not to sleep on Reyes but believes Jones will win. He also suggests betting small on Reyes as an underdog parlay.

suggests betting small on Reyes as underdog parlay with other underdogs
"John Jones will get the win over Dominic roster"
WIN vs Thiago Santos
Decision (split) (48–47, 48–47, 47–48) R5 5:00 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 59 of 90 65% 59 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 43 of 166 25% 43 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 7 of 42 16% 7 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 6 of 33 18% 6 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 16 of 21 76% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 59 of 90 65% 11 of 32 16 of 19 32 of 39 55 of 84 4 of 6 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 43 of 166 25% 9 of 92 7 of 21 27 of 53 42 of 159 1 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 7 of 16 43% 0 of 4 3 of 5 4 of 7 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 26 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 7 of 13 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 4 of 4 5 of 6 10 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 7 of 42 16% 1 of 25 2 of 6 4 of 11 6 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 14 of 19 73% 4 of 7 4 of 4 6 of 8 11 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 6 of 33 18% 1 of 17 1 of 6 4 of 10 6 of 30 0 of 3 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 2 of 3 7 of 7 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 8 of 28 28% 0 of 13 1 of 5 7 of 10 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 16 of 21 76% 3 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 11 16 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 37 29% 4 of 25 2 of 3 5 of 9 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Anthony Smith
Decision (unanimous) (48–44, 48–44, 48–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 125 of 167 74% 238 of 287 3 of 8 37% 0 0 12:58
Anthony Smith 0 36 of 66 54% 45 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 13 of 25 52% 17 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Anthony Smith 0 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 30 of 44 68% 35 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Anthony Smith 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 27 of 30 90% 57 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:21
Anthony Smith 0 2 of 3 66% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 35 of 39 89% 51 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Anthony Smith 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 20 of 29 68% 78 of 91 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:34
Anthony Smith 0 7 of 17 41% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 125 of 167 74% 45 of 80 35 of 40 45 of 47 64 of 102 31 of 34 30 of 31
Anthony Smith 36 of 66 54% 15 of 40 9 of 14 12 of 12 31 of 59 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 13 of 25 52% 1 of 11 5 of 7 7 of 7 12 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 12 of 21 57% 1 of 9 3 of 4 8 of 8 10 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 30 of 44 68% 6 of 17 8 of 10 16 of 17 28 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 14 of 24 58% 8 of 15 4 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 27 of 30 90% 4 of 6 10 of 11 13 of 13 4 of 6 17 of 18 6 of 6
Anthony Smith 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 35 of 39 89% 25 of 29 9 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 13 1 of 1 24 of 25
Anthony Smith 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 20 of 29 68% 9 of 17 3 of 3 8 of 9 10 of 19 10 of 10 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R3 2:02 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 59 of 102 57% 63 of 106 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:28
Alexander Gustafsson 0 22 of 83 26% 24 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 19 of 36 52% 20 of 37 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Alexander Gustafsson 0 13 of 32 40% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alexander Gustafsson 0 8 of 48 16% 8 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 13 of 15 86% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:28
Alexander Gustafsson 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 59 of 102 57% 26 of 52 15 of 22 18 of 28 40 of 81 7 of 8 12 of 13
Alexander Gustafsson 22 of 83 26% 12 of 62 4 of 11 6 of 10 19 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 19 of 36 52% 5 of 17 7 of 8 7 of 11 15 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0
Alexander Gustafsson 13 of 32 40% 4 of 18 4 of 6 5 of 8 10 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 27 of 51 52% 8 of 20 8 of 14 11 of 17 24 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Alexander Gustafsson 8 of 48 16% 7 of 42 0 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 13 of 15 86% 13 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 13
Alexander Gustafsson 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Daniel Cormier
NC (overturned) R3 3:01 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Cormier 0 58 of 140 41% 60 of 142 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 1 95 of 165 57% 95 of 165 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Cormier 0 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 0 34 of 66 51% 34 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Daniel Cormier 0 22 of 54 40% 24 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Cormier 0 5 of 26 19% 5 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 1 31 of 52 59% 31 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Cormier 58 of 140 41% 29 of 99 12 of 16 17 of 25 46 of 123 12 of 17 0 of 0
Jon Jones 95 of 165 57% 33 of 74 32 of 43 30 of 48 76 of 142 4 of 6 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Cormier 31 of 60 51% 13 of 36 7 of 9 11 of 15 26 of 50 5 of 10 0 of 0
Jon Jones 34 of 66 51% 8 of 27 13 of 19 13 of 20 31 of 62 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Daniel Cormier 22 of 54 40% 14 of 41 3 of 4 5 of 9 17 of 49 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jon Jones 30 of 47 63% 7 of 17 11 of 14 12 of 16 29 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Daniel Cormier 5 of 26 19% 2 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jon Jones 31 of 52 59% 18 of 30 8 of 10 5 of 12 16 of 35 0 of 0 15 of 17
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux · Apr 23, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 105 of 157 66% 111 of 163 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:54
Ovince Saint Preux 0 57 of 160 35% 58 of 161 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Ovince Saint Preux 0 12 of 31 38% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 18 of 28 64% 20 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Ovince Saint Preux 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 30 of 46 65% 30 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Ovince Saint Preux 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 26 of 29 89% 27 of 30 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:22
Ovince Saint Preux 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 18 of 28 64% 21 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:13
Ovince Saint Preux 0 11 of 38 28% 11 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 105 of 157 66% 35 of 63 24 of 29 46 of 65 76 of 120 11 of 18 18 of 19
Ovince Saint Preux 57 of 160 35% 29 of 113 12 of 23 16 of 24 46 of 143 11 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 13 of 26 50% 1 of 7 7 of 9 5 of 10 11 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 12 of 31 38% 4 of 16 3 of 7 5 of 8 11 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 18 of 28 64% 4 of 10 4 of 4 10 of 14 13 of 21 5 of 7 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 17 of 39 43% 12 of 30 2 of 3 3 of 6 10 of 28 7 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 30 of 46 65% 5 of 12 6 of 8 19 of 26 29 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 11 of 40 27% 7 of 31 2 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 26 of 29 89% 19 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 10 1 of 1 17 of 18
Ovince Saint Preux 6 of 12 50% 1 of 6 2 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 18 of 28 64% 6 of 14 3 of 3 9 of 11 15 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 1
Ovince Saint Preux 11 of 38 28% 5 of 30 3 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes - Fight History
WIN vs Johnny Walker
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 0 34 of 73 46% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 42 of 80 52% 42 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dominick Reyes 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Dominick Reyes 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Johnny Walker 0 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 34 of 73 46% 10 of 35 7 of 17 17 of 21 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 42 of 80 52% 7 of 31 6 of 11 29 of 38 41 of 78 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 10 of 19 52% 5 of 11 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 17 of 28 60% 2 of 8 2 of 2 13 of 18 17 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dominick Reyes 9 of 19 47% 4 of 12 3 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 13 of 28 46% 3 of 14 1 of 5 9 of 9 12 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Dominick Reyes 15 of 35 42% 1 of 12 2 of 8 12 of 15 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 12 of 24 50% 2 of 9 3 of 4 7 of 11 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.

"I'm going to pick Dominick. I think he's just the more technical of the two. If he can avoid getting caught up in the craziness, then he should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.

first round knockout
"I'm going to lean Dominick Reyes... give me Dominick Reyes to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.

"I am going to actually go with Dominic Grace as well... I just feel like Reyes is going to be able to snipe him, hit him with something before the damage comes the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"So I have to pick Reyes here. Yeah, I don't think he's actually at SVG Ireland anymore."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.

"I think that Dominic Reyes has always been slightly better than Johnny Walker. Slightly a bit more technical, more well-rounded, and has just accomplished a little bit more than Walker. So, I'm going to pick him for that reason."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.

over 1.5 rounds (+158)
"I'm going to go Walker for nothing more to play devil's advocate. Like I said, this is a 50/50 fight to me."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Johnny Walker

The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.

"Walker is probably my lean on this one, but not with any amount of confidence cuz I don't rate Walker particularly highly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.

"I'm picking Johnny Walker in this one, right? And the reason I'm doing that is because he's a little bit more unorthodox and I feel like if you're unorthodox you can catch Dominic Reyes."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.

Walker wins by knockout
"I end up siding with Walker ever so slightly. I think he'll end up finding that chin on Reyes and putting him away."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.

"I'm gonna I'm gonna side with Dom Reyes just because I I prefer his his striking technique, his style."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.

"I'm going to go with Dominic Reyes getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"Reyes really should just be able to sit down on one twos, check a couple kicks, be reasonably composed while Walker either throws himself wildly forward or throws himself wildly backward."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
KO R1 4:27 · UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · Sep 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Ulberg 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Reyes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Ulberg 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dominick Reyes 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Ulberg 11 of 17 64% 6 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Reyes 5 of 11 45% 0 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 5 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Ulberg 11 of 17 64% 6 of 9 2 of 3 3 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dominick Reyes 5 of 11 45% 0 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 5 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes, citing Ulberg's superior technical striking and takedown defense. He notes that Reyes does not use his reach well and may get clipped if he charges forward. He expects a decision win for Ulberg, possibly boring, but believes Ulberg is the clear pick. He mentions the line moved from minus 160 to minus 260.

Expects decision; no finish.
"I'm going to pick Carlos Uber here. I think this is mostly a striking matchup and Carlos is the better striker. While Dominic Reyes has the torso of a giraffe, the reality is he doesn't use his reach very well. …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Big Brady picks Carlos Ulberg to win by fourth-round knockout. He praises Ulberg's improvements and power, and questions whether Reyes's chin has truly recovered. He believes Ulberg will land a big shot over 25 minutes or win a volume-based decision as the hometown fighter.

fourth round knockout
"I'm going to go Bberg here. Here, I'm going to goberg by fourth round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody believes the line is too wide at Ulberg -260 and sees value on Reyes as a dog. He argues Reyes is just as good a striker, has five-round experience, and may have a wrestling advantage to stuff takedowns. He notes Ulberg's recent fights against older, slower opponents were competitive, and Reyes could drag him into deep waters.

"I just feel like the value here is clearly on Dominic Rays that should be able to keep this these striking exchanges close has a little more experience, has been five rounds before and then might have low key better …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Connor also picks Ulberg, but with more hesitation. He acknowledges that Reyes could pressure effectively like he did against Jon Jones, but doubts Reyes's technical improvements. Connor notes that Reyes's wins are against questionable opposition and that his footwork and combination punching remain flawed. He thinks Ulberg's speed and willingness to make Reyes work could cause Reyes to second-guess himself, especially given Ulberg's imposing physique.

"I think I have to pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James picks Carlos Ulberg confidently, citing his superior striking technique, feint game, and durability. He notes that Ulberg is the more well-schooled kickboxer with better footwork and shot selection, and that Reyes' recent wins came against opponents who rushed in recklessly, which Ulberg won't do. He also mentions Reyes' past chin issues and believes Ulberg can hurt him to the body or head. He predicts a knockout, though a decision is also possible.

knockout
"I'm calling Carlos Orberg here. I'm calling Carlos Orberg pretty confidently here. ... I'm going to say knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James confidently picks Carlos Ulberg, believing he is the superior striker with better fight IQ and faints. He dismisses Reyes' recent wins as deceiving, noting opponents ran into his punches. He predicts Ulberg will catch Reyes with a clean shot and knock him out, exposing Reyes' chin.

by KO
"I'm predicting Carlosberg in this one. I think he's the better striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The host acknowledges Reyes has athleticism and power to change the fight, but believes Ulberg's technical advantages will cause Reyes to walk onto a counter and get knocked out. He notes it will be closer than the odds indicate but expects Ulberg to earn his ninth straight victory and potentially a title shot.

closer fight than odds indicate
"Reyes obviously has the athleticism and power to change the tide of any fight, but I believe it's going to be the technical advantages of Alberg that causes Reyes to walk onto a counter and eventually get knocked out. This …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The Guru picks Carlos Ulberg to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Ulberg's back-foot striking and counter-punching will frustrate Reyes, who struggles when forced to lead. He notes Reyes' tendency to leave himself open when moving forward and cites Ulberg's performance against Jan Błachowicz as superior to Reyes'. He expects Reyes to get desperate and get caught.

third round TKO
"I think Carlos Allberg has got this one in the bag."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, expecting him to use his jab-centric, technical out-fighting to keep Reyes at range and avoid pressure. He notes that Ulberg is fast and will likely circle away, making it hard for Reyes to cut off the cage. Zane worries that Reyes's confidence may not hold if he can't close the distance, and he sees Ulberg's speed and low kicks as key factors. He also mentions that the big cage in Perth favors Ulberg's movement.

"I think I'm gonna pick Olberg just because I don't think Reyes is going to close him down that easily."
WIN vs Nikita Krylov
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.

"Dominic Ray has got back on track in an emphatic fashion. You know, knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.

He predicts Krylov wins inside the distance.
"I'm going to side with Kryov here. I'll say he gets it done inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
WIN vs Anthony Smith
TKO (elbows and punches) R2 4:46 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 0 121 of 162 74% 172 of 232 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 0 48 of 76 63% 53 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anthony Smith 0 21 of 46 45% 24 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Dominick Reyes 0 73 of 86 84% 119 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
Anthony Smith 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 121 of 162 74% 110 of 149 8 of 10 3 of 3 48 of 75 17 of 22 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 48 of 76 63% 38 of 64 8 of 10 2 of 2 47 of 73 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 21 of 46 45% 14 of 36 5 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dominick Reyes 73 of 86 84% 72 of 85 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 16 of 19 56 of 65
Anthony Smith 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Angelo picks Anthony Smith, arguing that Smith has been more active and fought tougher competition recently, while Reyes has been knocked out repeatedly. He believes Smith is more durable and technically sound. However, he emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick and not a betting recommendation. He notes both fighters are not durable, but Smith may be more so.

"Anthony Smith is going to be the pick though cry about it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes, believing he still has something left after his win over Jacoby. He notes Smith's tendency to fade after the first round and thinks Reyes' speed and accuracy will lead to a late TKO or decision. He acknowledges chin concerns but favors Reyes.

"I'll take Reyes... likely third round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Anthony Smith

Connor picks Anthony Smith because he believes Reyes has not addressed the technical and confidence issues that caused his losing streak. He notes that Reyes' win over Dustin Jacoby was a 50/50 brawl where he landed first, and that Reyes has not shown any new tools or adjustments. Connor argues that Smith, despite his own confidence problems, is a tough veteran who will not fold easily and can capitalize on Reyes' mistakes. He also points out that Smith has never looked completely lost in a fight, unlike Reyes during his skid.

Connor mentions the odds are getting wider, with Smith at +248 to +273, and says he doesn't like those odds because Reyes' losses were bad.
"I'm gonna pick anthony smith a guy go for it. Yeah make i'll pick reas but I do not trust dominic reas."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel believes Reyes is the better fighter and will dictate the fight. He notes Smith's decline and slow speed, while Reyes regained confidence with a knockout win. He warns about Reyes' chin but expects him to avoid getting caught.

"I simply think that Reyes is a better fighter than Anthony Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Reyes got back to winning ways by knocking out Dustin Jacoby due to Jacoby's over-aggressiveness. Smith likely won't be as aggressive, so Reyes will touch him up from distance over 15 minutes and win on the scorecards.

"I think that would lead to Reyes touching up Smith from distance throughout the course of 15 minutes and getting his hand raised on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans toward Reyes but is hesitant due to his knockout losses. He notes Smith's durability and early-round power, but thinks Reyes' speed and youth give him the edge. He considers the line too high and passes on betting.

"I can't touch Dominic Reyes... it's dog or pass for me, leaning pass."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Reyes, calling Anthony Smith terrible and lacking talent. He believes Reyes has the game plan ability (having beaten Jon Jones) and will drill low kicks. He thinks Smith cannot take Reyes down or knock him out, and predicts a vintage performance with a TKO in round one or two against the cage via ground and pound.

Reyes wins by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going Dominic Reyes I think Anthony Smith is terrible"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes but with low confidence, stating that if Reyes is confident, he should beat Smith easily. He notes that Reyes has the physical tools and style to pressure Smith and take him down, but he is concerned that Reyes has not made any technical improvements during his losing streak. Zane also points out that Smith is a tough out who can survive early adversity and come back, and that Reyes' confidence is fragile. He ultimately leans Reyes because he believes Reyes has more future potential, but he is not confident in the pick.

Zane comments on the odds, noting Reyes opened at -345 and is now -329, and says that a shocking knockout win over Jacoby does not make Reyes back.
"I think ray's is gonna hurt him and pick up a round and feel pretty good about himself... I would like to see ray as win."
WIN vs Dustin Jacoby
KO (punches) R1 2:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dominick Reyes 2 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Jacoby 0 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dominick Reyes 20 of 33 60% 15 of 26 3 of 4 2 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 6
Dustin Jacoby 6 of 16 37% 1 of 7 0 of 1 5 of 8 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Angelo picks Dustin Jacoby, believing Dominick Reyes is done after three knockout losses. He notes that Reyes hasn't won in years and his chin is compromised. Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer who can outpoint Reyes. He thinks the sport has passed Reyes by, and Jacoby's technical striking will be too much.

"I think Dustin jacobe wins this fight while he is a very high level technical kickboxer"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Big Brady picks Dustin Jacoby to win by decision with little confidence. He questions whether Dominick Reyes is washed, noting his losses to Jon Jones, Jan Blachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka are not bad, but the Ryan Spann KO is concerning. He thinks Jacoby might be the minute winner but has been disappointing in fights like the Menifield loss. He calls it a total pass and advises against betting.

"I'm taking Dustin jacobe to win this fight I'll take him to Win It by decision but I want nothing to do with this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody picks Reyes as a greasy underdog, noting that Reyes has faced elite competition and his four-fight losing streak includes fights against Jon Jones (arguably a win), Jan Błachowicz, and Jiri Prochazka. He believes Reyes' power and durability could be a problem for Jacoby, who is a decision fighter prone to close losses. Cody thinks the year and a half off may have helped Reyes recover his chin, and he expects a close fight that could go Reyes' way via split decision.

Dominick Reyes to win by split or majority decision
"I have to take a couple greasy dogs and Rees is one of those greasy dogs so I'll take Dom Rees and just hope to God that the year off the couple years off the time off I should say …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Daniel is confident in Jacoby because he believes Reyes has never recovered mentally or physically from the Jon Jones fight, citing three brutal knockout losses and a diminished chin. He notes Jacoby is still competitive with top fighters and can point fight or knock out Reyes. He expects Jacoby to win by knockout, as Reyes' confidence is shattered.

knockout
"I think uh I think jacobe actually comes out here and knocks him out"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacob picks Dustin Jacoby, but he is rooting for Reyes. He thinks Jacoby's jab will wear down Reyes, who has a suspect chin. He notes that Jacoby isn't the most powerful, but his jab can set up a knockout. He warns that Reyes might get too comfortable and get caught. He expects Jacoby to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I think that jab is eventually just going to wear down Dominic ryes I'm going be rooting for him man I hope he comes through"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Jacoby is a technical striker with good range and output, while Reyes has durability issues and a long layoff. Jacoby should outland Reyes from distance and may knock him out, though Reyes has power of his own. The -225 line is a bit wide, but Jacoby by KO is the pick.

knockout
"I'm going to lean jacobe here minus 225 just makes me a little bit queasy... I'm going to lean Jobe by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul is tempted to bet Reyes but lacks the courage to pull the trigger. He notes Reyes' three consecutive knockout losses and questions his chin, while Jacoby tends to be in close fights. Paul thinks it's a pass from a betting perspective but might change his mind after weigh-ins.

"I am tempted to bet Dominic Reyes but like for what purpose like he's he's obviously shown that you know Ryan span knocking him out in the first round that's the other guys Yuri and and yon bovic two guys …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The Guru says you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong, citing his losing streak and the damage he took from Yuri (orbital fracture, shattered nose). He likes Jacoby in a three-rounder because Reyes lacks finishing potential and is coming off TKO losses. He expects Jacoby to get started sooner, landing low kicks, jabs, and body shots, and win a decision (29-28 or 30-27). He also notes Jacoby beat Khalil Rountree in his eyes.

Decision win prediction; mentions 29-28 or 30-27 scorecards
"you can't pick Reyes until he proves you wrong... I'm going to say that jacobe wins a decision"
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
KO (punches) R1 1:20 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann (206.6: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Reyes (-205), Spann (+175)

Round 1
It’s been a rough stretch for Reyes, who was finished by Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz in back-to-back fights after a near-victory against Jon Jones in February 2020. He’ll look to right the ship against Spann, who missed weight by half a pound but has been victorious in six of eight promotional appearances. Marc Goddard gets the call to oversee the light heavyweight clash. Reyes with a front kick down the middle, and Spann misses a high kick. A right hand from Spann makes Reyes stumble, and Reyes answers. Reyes slips during an ensuing exchange and Spann latches onto a guillotine. He relents and they’re back at range. Spann counters a kick with a 1-2 combination and Reyes attempts to answer.
As he steps in, a short left hand from “Superman” — along with a glancing right — lays Reyes out stiff on the canvas. He dives in and lands one unnecessary blow before Goddard dives in to save Reyes.
Spann has his second straight first-round finish in the Octagon. Reyes’ struggles continue, as he loses his fourth straight.

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Dominick Reyes via KO (Punches) R1 1:20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.

"I'm gonna hold off on a pick here watch our Tuesday night breakdown maybe I'm more confident then"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.

Reyes by KO in round 1; not recommended for betting
"give me Dominic Reyes give me Dominic Reyes by knockout in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.

"I know this one's probably a bad call but I'll I'm spamming Underdog and I think on Ryan's fan... I just think on a card that I again agree with a lot of the favorites I feel like there's maybe …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.

"Dominic Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.

Predicts a knockout win for Reyes; odds mentioned: Reyes -225, Spann +190 at DraftKings
"I think Dominic Reyes gets back on track like the guys that have been beating Reyes are all Champions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.

over 1.5 rounds (-120)
"I do lean Reyes here I just can't get past or behind that minus 225 line considering his layoff"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.

"I'm gonna pick Dominic Reyes here I just think uh if this fight does get extended which a lot of spam fights do not Reyes should absolutely like lap lap em in uh in volume."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.

guillotine choke
"I think I'm gonna go over Ryan's bam"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.

"Unless the bond gets really lucky early, uh, Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
KO (spinning back elbow) R2 4:29 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 63 of 108 58% 68 of 114 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 1 77 of 136 56% 78 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 0 45 of 81 55% 45 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 24 of 42 57% 29 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 32 of 55 58% 33 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 63 of 108 58% 39 of 81 21 of 24 3 of 3 57 of 100 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 77 of 136 56% 61 of 119 16 of 17 0 of 0 70 of 122 1 of 2 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 39 of 66 59% 25 of 51 12 of 13 2 of 2 39 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 45 of 81 55% 36 of 71 9 of 10 0 of 0 44 of 79 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 24 of 42 57% 14 of 30 9 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 34 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 32 of 55 58% 25 of 48 7 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 43 0 of 0 6 of 12
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, taking the underdog. He criticizes Procházka's striking defense, noting that he was tagged multiple times by Volkan Oezdemir and fights with his hands down. Brady believes Reyes is motivated after a bad loss and has the power to exploit Procházka's defensive flaws. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He acknowledges that both can knock each other out but favors Reyes due to Procházka's recklessness.

under 2.5 rounds, first round knockout
"i'm gonna take dominic reyes here to get the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is a huge Jiří Procházka fan and has backed him before. He notes that Procházka comes out berserk and is always looking to bet the under on his fights. He believes Procházka will bomb rush Reyes and win the early rounds, and questions Reyes' durability after being flatlined by Jan Błachowicz. He also mentions that Reyes' output falls off in later rounds, which favors Procházka's aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Reyes survives the early onslaught, the fight could turn in his favor in a five-round fight.

under 1.5 rounds (lean)
"i am going to go yeary in this spot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka to win, citing Procházka's high confidence, unique style, and toughness. He notes that Reyes is a point fighter who may be mentally deflated after the Jones fight and lacks one-punch power. Levi believes Procházka's offensive arsenal and ability to recover from adversity will be the difference.

"i'm gonna go with uh the favorite here yuri prohaska to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host picks Jiří Procházka by KO, citing his power and unorthodox style. He notes that Reyes is more technical but has shown durability issues and a tendency to fade. He expects Procházka's constant pressure to eventually overwhelm Reyes and get a finish in the second round.

Jiří Procházka by KO at +125; Over 1.5 rounds at -155; Fight won't start round 4 at -210; Fight won't start round 3 at -130
"I do like pro husks guy here i think he gets it done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul has backed Dominick Reyes in every fight but was let down in the Jan fight. He thinks Reyes' best performance was against Jon Jones, but that might be due to Jones fighting down to his level. He notes that Reyes has low output outside of that fight and that Procházka's aggression could exploit Reyes' potential chin issues. He leans toward Procházka but is not confident, saying the fight could go either way. He also mentions he'd rather bet under 2.5 rounds if available.

under 2.5 rounds (preference)
"i'm gonna take yuri as well i'm leaning towards that under one and a half but honestly one i'd rather be under two and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka to win by second-round TKO over Dominick Reyes. He notes that Reyes is coming off a broken nose and rib, and that Procházka's awkward movement and power could break Reyes' nose early. He believes Procházka has momentum and a reach advantage, and that Reyes may not have improved enough. He also mentions that if Reyes wins, it will likely be by head kick.

second round TKO
"i'm going with yuri project man got the momentum tko second round over dominic reyes"
LOSS vs Jan Błachowicz
TKO (punches) R2 4:36 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 41 of 89 46% 41 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 15 of 36 41% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 26 of 53 49% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 21 of 51 41% 9 of 35 2 of 5 10 of 11 21 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 41 of 89 46% 25 of 70 6 of 9 10 of 10 37 of 83 1 of 2 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 10 of 20 50% 3 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 7 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 15 of 36 41% 2 of 22 5 of 6 8 of 8 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 31 35% 6 of 23 1 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 26 of 53 49% 23 of 48 1 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 47 1 of 2 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.

Reyes by third-round knockout
"give me dominic reyes i'm going to say uh third round knockout for dominic reyes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.

dog or pass situation; plus 230 on yom blakovich in a title fight
"i'm gonna slightly edge reyes here just because he gave jones that tough fight but like dude this might be a situation where you pick reyes and bet yamlakova just because of the betting odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.

over 2.5 rounds, Błachowicz by decision
"I like yamahovich in this spot but for some reason i just can't pull the trigger... i'm actually going to go with yamblahovic to win this fight by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.

Win by KO in round 1 or 2
"i think he'll catch jan blackovich in the first or second round with a big shot and finished a job much like santos did"
Expert Picks (3)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jon Jones

Daniel Levi picks Jon Jones, citing his unparalleled skill set, fight IQ, and durability. He notes that Jones has a 7-inch reach advantage and gets better as fights go on, while Reyes may fade after the first round. He expects Jones to pick Reyes apart and possibly get a ground-and-pound finish.

"I think Jon Jones gonna pick this guy apart he's gonna take him down and I think he's gonna pound him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The host picks Jon Jones, likely by decision or late finish, citing his reach, kicks, wrestling, and experience. He believes Jones will establish his range and wear down Reyes, who has not faced anyone of Jones' caliber. He plans to parlay Jones with Andrea Lee as his lock of the night play.

Parlay with Andrea Lee at -161, Jones by decision or late finish
"I am looking at John Jones and Angie Lee parlayed as my locker than I play or the under two and a half of the lingo and slaw fights there's a two plays I'm looking at as my locker than I play I amanda playing both of them but not …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones to win, noting that Jones has a massive reach advantage and is more focused after time off. He warns not to sleep on Reyes but believes Jones will win. He also suggests betting small on Reyes as an underdog parlay.

suggests betting small on Reyes as underdog parlay with other underdogs
"John Jones will get the win over Dominic roster"