UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes Next Fight
Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Khaos Williams
4.94 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
5.39 SApM
40.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
51.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alex Morono
4.9 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.88 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Khaos Williams - Fight History
KO/TKO R1 3:31 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khaos Williams 0 13 of 25 52% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nikolay Veretennikov 1 21 of 56 37% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khaos Williams 0 13 of 25 52% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nikolay Veretennikov 1 21 of 56 37% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khaos Williams 13 of 25 52% 8 of 19 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nikolay Veretennikov 21 of 56 37% 9 of 35 7 of 9 5 of 12 20 of 52 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khaos Williams 13 of 25 52% 8 of 19 3 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nikolay Veretennikov 21 of 56 37% 9 of 35 7 of 9 5 of 12 20 of 52 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Angelo picks Nikolay Veretennikov, considering him the better technical striker. He notes Khaos Williams has no takedown attempts in the UFC, so if Veretennikov has success striking, Williams has no backup plan. He expects Veretennikov's forward pressure to disrupt Williams. He calls it a crazy close fight.

"I actually think Nikolai is the better striker between the two. ... I'm actually going to pick Nikolai here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Big Brady picks Nikolay Veretennikov as a slight underdog, citing his striking tools and durability. He notes that Khaos Williams has not completed a takedown in the UFC, so the fight will likely stay standing, where Veretennikov has the edge. He predicts a decision win but is not confident enough to bet.

"I'm going to take the slight dog here in Veritin."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Cody picks Nikolay Veretennikov, noting that Khaos Williams has looked disinterested and reluctant to engage in recent fights. Veretennikov is a versatile striker with good body work and durability, while Williams relies on power but has low volume. Cody believes Veretennikov's higher work rate and shot selection will allow him to outwork Williams over three rounds.

"I got Verikov to edge this thing out."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Khaos Williams

Connor picks Williams but with hesitation, noting that Veretennikov could win if he circles away and throws one-twos, but Veretennikov doesn't circle. He emphasizes that Williams is a power-based fighter with no technique and has been brutally bullied in recent fights, but Veretennikov is not good enough to exploit that.

Same odds as Zane. Connor calls it a 'wasted matchup' and suggests better opponents for Williams.
"I'm going to still pick him, but it has to be noted. Like if Veritenikoff just shows up and like I said, it's like, Oh, what if I circle away and throw one tooth or just ones?"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 16, 2026 (fight day)
Khaos Williams

Williams lands harder shots and has better cardio. Veretennikov slows down and has poor takedown offense. However, Williams can be passive and head-hunts. The fight spread is a better bet than the moneyline.

Khaos Williams +3.5 at 1.60 is a great bet.
"I'm very tempted to bet on Khaos Williams in this matchup."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Lucrative James picks Nikolay Veretennikov to win by KO, citing Veretennikov's Muay Thai clinch and knees against a striker like Williams. He notes Williams's recent losses and potential lack of focus, while Veretennikov is all-in on MMA. He predicts a second-round finish via knee to the body.

win by KO in round 2
"I'm picking Nikolai Veritenov to get this one done via knee to the body in the clinch in round two."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

The host picks Khaos Williams over Nikolay Veretennikov, expecting Williams to thwart Veretennikov's approach and land big power shots early and often, leading to a decision win.

"I fully expect Williams to thwart whatever approach Veretennikov is taking and then start to battle back with big power of his own, and I think he'll be able to touch up Veretennikov early and often, and I think that …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 12, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

The host believes Williams' defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight standing, where he has the striking advantage. He expects Williams to pull away in the later rounds and win by decision, though a knockout is possible. He is confident in Williams at -130.

"I think his grappling defense will be good enough to keep Veritanikov away from trying to grind this fight out. And in terms of striking, I think Williams is the more dangerous striker."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 13, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nikolay Veretennikov

Paul hesitantly picks Nikolay Veretennikov at plus 110, noting that both fighters' opponents usually try to take them down. He hopes that Veretennikov's training camp with high-level wrestlers may have improved his offensive wrestling, allowing him to steal close rounds. He acknowledges it's a volatile fight and is not heavily invested.

"Give me the ever so slight plus money on Nikolai. Um, hesitantly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 15, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Khaos Williams

Zane picks Khaos Williams because Veretennikov is low-output, can't wrestle, and doesn't use his length effectively. He notes that Williams is powerful and should be able to blitz Veretennikov, though he acknowledges Williams has never beaten a really good fighter and his last two fights were brutal losses.

Odds: Williams opened -150, now -120; Veretennikov opened +130, now +100. Zane calls it a 'stupid fight' and a 'wasted matchup'.
"So yeah, he'll probably beat Nikolai Veritenikov. Yeah, probably scare him at least."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khaos Williams 0 39 of 74 52% 95 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Andreas Gustafsson 0 98 of 128 76% 151 of 185 8 of 14 57% 0 0 9:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khaos Williams 0 21 of 40 52% 49 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:02
Andreas Gustafsson 0 30 of 44 68% 36 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:49
2 Khaos Williams 0 13 of 28 46% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andreas Gustafsson 0 35 of 46 76% 44 of 56 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:43
3 Khaos Williams 0 5 of 6 83% 14 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Andreas Gustafsson 0 33 of 38 86% 71 of 79 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khaos Williams 39 of 74 52% 29 of 63 10 of 11 0 of 0 26 of 57 13 of 17 0 of 0
Andreas Gustafsson 98 of 128 76% 67 of 95 21 of 23 10 of 10 27 of 50 52 of 57 19 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khaos Williams 21 of 40 52% 16 of 34 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 28 9 of 12 0 of 0
Andreas Gustafsson 30 of 44 68% 15 of 27 14 of 16 1 of 1 11 of 22 19 of 22 0 of 0
2 Khaos Williams 13 of 28 46% 10 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0
Andreas Gustafsson 35 of 46 76% 25 of 36 5 of 5 5 of 5 13 of 23 20 of 21 2 of 2
3 Khaos Williams 5 of 6 83% 3 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Andreas Gustafsson 33 of 38 86% 27 of 32 2 of 2 4 of 4 3 of 5 13 of 14 17 of 19
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Andreas Gustafsson vs. Kalinn Williams
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Williams (-192), Gustafsson (+160)

Round 1
Our first welterweight fight of the night is overseen by Mike Beltran. Gustafsson comes out charging and clinches with Williams. Gustafsson lands a knee and is looking to use his Greco-Roman wrestling to take the fight to the ground. Williams defends well, as both men land knees in the clinch. Gustafsson is doing more damage, but it's largely a stalemate as the crowd boos. Beltran breaks the fighters up. Gustafsson wastes no time, charging forward and landing an uppercut. A big right hand lands for Gustafsson, who follows it up with a right hook. It's reckless offense, but it's undeniably working for him. Gustafsson clinches again but can't keep Williams there. A left hook lands for Gustafsson, who is throwing wild hooks. Most are missing, but Williams hasn't been able to land much in response. They clinch with Williams staying on his feet but eating more knees. This is an exhausting pace by Gustafsson. Williams landing some hard knees of his own. The round ends with Gustafsson slipping a knee and an elbow in.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gustafsson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gustafsson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gustafsson

Round 2
Williams looks tired to start the second frame. Gustafsson charges forward and gets back into the clinch where the last round left off. Knees to the leg of Williams lands for Gustafsson. Williams is able to exit. A nice right straight lands for Williams, but Gustafsson is closing space. A jab for Gustafsson hurts Williams, and the two men wind up back in the clinch again. An uppercut for Gustafsson lands, and then a huge left hook. Williams is trying to pick his shots, but simply can't keep up with this pace. Gustafsson lands a knee and then trips Williams to the ground. Gustafsson allows Williams up and then puts him back on the ground. Williams is back to his feet and then eats a knee to the face. Gustafsson drags his opponent to the ground. This is a one-sided beatdown. Gustafsson cuts Williams, who gets to his feet only to eat more knees. Big elbows from Gustafsson. Williams is back to his feet but just eating knees. Gustafsson slips in an uppercut and then an elbow. Brutal offense from Gustafsson, who ends the round in the clinch with another elbow.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gustafsson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gustafsson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gustafsson

Round 3
Gustafsson begins the round as expected, charging forward and getting Williams into the clinch. Williams isn't able to escape and is getting kneed and shoulder-checked. They are fighting as if they're in a phone booth. Uppercuts and elbows are being landed by Gustafsson. Williams is occasionally throwing back, but doesn't have the power to keep Gustafsson honest at this point. Gustafsson takes the back of Williams while standing. Gustafsson trips Williams to the floor and unloads with elbows while in side control. Williams is able to scramble to his feet, but is eating knee after knee. Gustafsson takes him down again. Williams has nothing less. Gustafsson has his back and is landing punch after punch until the fight ends. A total thrashing.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gustafsson (30-27 Gustafsson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Gustafsson (30-26 Gustafsson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Gustafsson (30-26 Gustafsson)

The Official Result
Andreas Gustafsson def. Kalinn Williams via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 30-26); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Angelo picks Khaos Williams but is hesitant due to the unusual circumstances. He notes Andreas Gustafsson is a live underdog with good grappling and power, but the double weight cut (cutting weight for a canceled fight then cutting again) could hurt his performance. He thinks if Andreas is fine, he could win by pressure. He doesn't love the pick.

Andreas is a live underdog; potential inside the distance or decision.
"I am going to pick Chaos Williams here, but I got to tell you, I don't love it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Big Brady picks Khaos Williams, citing his durability and fight IQ compared to Gustafsson's previous opponent. He notes Gustafsson is hittable, slow, and only dangerous in the clinch, while Williams is much more durable and has never been knocked out. He expects Williams to knock Gustafsson out in the second round when the fight is at range.

Williams by KO in round 2
"I think Chaos Williams knocks him out here. I think at some point these two are going to be at at range. And when they are, when they're at space, it just heavily heavily favors Chaos Williams here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Khaos Williams was closer to -250 earlier in fight week but now finds himself around -190, which is considered a perfect entry. He is expected to land more shots, shut down Gustafsson's grappling, and outdamage him on the way to a decision victory.

odds movement from -250 to -190
"I think this is the perfect entry to take him to land more shots, shut down the grueling grappling game of Gustiffson and outdamage Gustoson on route to a decision victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

The MMA Guru picks Khaos Williams by KO, confident in his one-punch power. He notes Andreas Gustafsson's pressure style will play into Williams' hands, as Gustafsson will enter the danger zone. He acknowledges Williams is not fundamentally sound but has nasty knockout power. He predicts a first round KO.

Finish prediction: first round KO.
"I'm going with Chaos Williams by flatline KO."
LOSS vs Gabriel Bonfim
Submission R2 4:58 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriel Bonfim 0 35 of 72 48% 35 of 72 4 of 5 80% 2 0 1:42
Khaos Williams 0 20 of 90 22% 23 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriel Bonfim 0 7 of 23 30% 7 of 23 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:08
Khaos Williams 0 7 of 41 17% 10 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 Gabriel Bonfim 0 28 of 49 57% 28 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Khaos Williams 0 13 of 49 26% 13 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriel Bonfim 35 of 72 48% 20 of 50 0 of 5 15 of 17 35 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Khaos Williams 20 of 90 22% 8 of 54 2 of 13 10 of 23 20 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriel Bonfim 7 of 23 30% 2 of 17 0 of 0 5 of 6 7 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khaos Williams 7 of 41 17% 3 of 23 1 of 6 3 of 12 7 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gabriel Bonfim 28 of 49 57% 18 of 33 0 of 5 10 of 11 28 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
Khaos Williams 13 of 49 26% 5 of 31 1 of 7 7 of 11 13 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Kalinn Williams
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-225), Williams (+185)

Round 1
The first of the vaunted Bonfim brothers takes the stage in this welterweight contest. Called “Little Hammer” or “Marretinha,” Bonfim (16-1, 3-1 UFC) lets his smaller, older brother take “Hammer” outright. This Bonfim is more apt to go for submissions than the other, with a clean three-quarters of his pro victories by tapout. On the other side of the equation, Williams (15-3, 6-1 UFC) has never been finished as a pro, so something might have to give in the next 15 minutes or less. With referee Herb Dean taking a few steps back, the fighters meander towards one another but do not plan on offering a glove touch. Instead, they smack one another with calf kicks. Taking turns throwing these kicks, Williams tries to take his activity up a notch by jabbing to the body a few times. Bonfim loops a single left hand around the guard, but Williams pays it no mind. They lunge at one another with solid jabs, and Williams misses a looping right hand by a matter of inches. Williams once more whiffs on a blitz, with Bonfim sliding to the side laterally to avoid the worst of it. Williams turns his hips into a hard kick, and a second is greeted by a takedown shot. Williams drops to a knee to defend it, wrapping his arm around the neck while Bonfim has his hands around the waist. As Williams tries to scramble, Bonfim comfortably takes his back and gets both hooks in. Williams is defensively-minded to not let a choke materialize, and he explodes at the exact right moment to burst back to his feet and put Bonfim’s back to the wall. Bonfim is able to separate and stick out numerous jabs, not letting Williams get off with his heavy shots. “Khaos” gets back to delivering low kicks from either side, and Bonfim times an overswinging Williams by lifting him up and slamming him on his face. Bonfim stays tight on top of his foe to pull off a Von Preux choke, but time expires before he can complete it. When Dean tells them the round is over, he has to forcibly get Bonfim to release the choke and send him to his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim

Round 2
It is more leg kicks from both men to get the second round started, with the occasional inaccurate surge from Williams buzzing past his opponent. Bonfim is able to successfully circle out of harm’s way, with Williams unable to cut him off and just chasing him hurling punches. Bonfim stays on his bike with stabbing jabs, and he chops at the front leg when not jabbing. The approach might not be mind-blowing but it is effective, as he occasionally follows a jab with a good overhand right. Bonfim checks a kick and the two crash together to bang their heads together, but they appear no worse for wear from it. The calf kicks from the Brazilian are starting to get Williams’ attention, who is swinging wider and appearing to flag seven minutes in. Bonfim checks another kick or two, jabs and slips away from the big Williams blows. Bonfim splits the guard with a front kick and keeps putting the pain behind low kicks. A left hook plants behind the ear of “Khaos the Ox Fighter,” who shakes it off and gets back to trading at a range he does prefer. Williams swings wildly with too much arc, while Bonfim is much straighter, allowing him to hit first and last while chewing Williams up with his kicks. Williams staggers away after taking unchecked low kicks, and he comes up hitting air when bearing down on the Brazilian. Bonfim stabs out a jab and parries a few punches, and he shoots for a takedown as soon as Williams gains as modicum of momentum.
Bonfim lands in full mount but is bounced out of it, and he turns to his knees and wraps up a brabo choke. Williams turns to his side to ride out the choke and possibly survive to the next round, but the submission is lethally tight. Williams goes out, his eyes eerily open wide and his mouthpiece nearly coughed out as he stares lifelessly into the void.
Dean recognizes that Williams has been ushered off to dreamland and waves the fight off, with Bonfim successfully becoming the first fighter to finish the dangerous “Khaos.”

The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Kalinn Williams R2 4:58 via Technical Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, noting he is more well-rounded with clean boxing and good BJJ. He expects Bonfim to use a wrestle-heavy game plan but acknowledges Khaos Williams has solid takedown defense and power. He thinks the -200 odds are wide and that Bonfim could gas, but overall Bonfim has more tools.

"Gabriel's going to be the pick here because he's more well-rounded he has more tools in the bag and he can make this fight Go in different directions"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Big Brady picks Bonfim, noting he has more ways to win: striking power and a grappling path. Williams is hitable (42% striking defense) and has poor grappling defense. Bonfim showed improved cardio in his last fight. However, he hesitates to lay -210 odds due to Williams' power.

"I just think bonfim has way more ways to win and I think he's the better fighter so give me Gabriel bonf I'll take him to win by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Gabriel Bonfim

Bonfim is the better striker and overall mixed martial artist. As long as he stays conscious, he should outpoint Khaos Williams and win on the scorecards. The fight likely goes past the 1.5 round mark.

over 1.5 rounds
"I do believe Bonfim is the better striker and better overall mixed martial artist as long as he can stay conscious in this matchup he should be able to touch up Khaos Williams and win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

The MMA Guru picks Khaos Williams as an underdog over Gabriel Bonfim. He doubts Bonfim's ability to immediately take Williams down and submit him, noting Bonfim's close decision with Ange Loosa and loss to Nicolas Dalby. He believes Williams has the power to knock out Bonfim and has a solid resume despite inactivity.

underdog pick
"I'm gonna go chaos Williams as an underdog here I think he's going to Chin Gabriel Bon ferm"
KO (punch) R1 1:30 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khaos Williams 1 12 of 20 60% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Carlston Harris 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khaos Williams 1 12 of 20 60% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Carlston Harris 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khaos Williams 12 of 20 60% 5 of 9 2 of 4 5 of 7 11 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlston Harris 14 of 30 46% 10 of 25 1 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khaos Williams 12 of 20 60% 5 of 9 2 of 4 5 of 7 11 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlston Harris 14 of 30 46% 10 of 25 1 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kalinn Williams vs. Carlston Harris
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Williams (-130), Harris (+110)

Round 1
Coming into the co-main event, two welterweights with the ability to procure especially violent and fascinating finishes will clash. Williams (14-3, 5-2 UFC) prefers to smash people in the face, while Harris (19-5, 4-1 UFC) can hit hard and is not afraid to go for a neck. Referee Dan Miragliotta may be needed when it’s all said and done. The two men tap their gloves together before the melee ensues, and Williams moves right to the center of the cage. Harris slaps out a low kick, and he leans to the side to evade a front kick aimed at his face. They both jab at one another, with Williams going to the body. Williams aims a body shot and follows with a right hand over the top. Harris stays on the outside with rangy punches to the head and midsection. They trade low kicks, and Harris prods out with a jab. Harris comes up short with a pair of overhand rights, and a third partially lands.
Williams absorbs a clubbing right hand behind the ear when jabbing to the body, and he ducks down and unleashes a devastating right that completely demolishes “Mocambique.” Harris hits the ground on his side in a heap, totally wrecked, and Williams leaps down to finish the job with one unnecessary diving right hand.
When Miragliotta gets between them, he walks off pounding his chest to celebrate a crushing knockout, having flattened a dangerous adversary in about 90 seconds.

The Official Result
Kalinn Williams def. Carlston Harris R1 1:30 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Angelo picks Khaos Williams due to his power, durability, and takedown defense, but he is not fully confident because Williams looked flat in his last fight with no head movement. Carlston Harris is well-rounded with slick grappling and power. Angelo trusts Williams' takedown defense over Harris's 29% takedown accuracy, but hopes Williams shows improvement.

"chaos Williams is going to be the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Cody believes Williams has evolved from a pure power puncher to a more well-rounded fighter who uses inside kicks to set up his right hand. He notes Williams has 80% takedown defense and hasn't been taken down since Michel Pereira. Cody argues Harris's striking is limited and his cardio is suspect; if Harris doesn't get a quick submission, Williams will outwork him on the feet. He also highlights Williams's training camp at Michigan with top welterweights.

"I'll take that slight Edge on chaos Williams."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Williams has improved his takedown defense and gas tank, and is a crisper striker. Harris relies on clinching and BJJ but will struggle to get the fight to the ground against Williams' physicality. Expects Williams to land the more effective damage and win a decision.

"I don't mind him around that minus 120 line in this fight so give me Williams and Williams by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Paul leans on Harris's grappling advantage, noting that if Harris can get the fight to the mat, he should have a significant edge. He questions whether Khaos Williams has been tested against someone with Harris's jiu-jitsu pedigree. Paul expects a striker vs. grappler dynamic and favors the grappler.

"I'll lean on the grappling here because I don't know if chaos Williams has really been tested against somebody with this pedigree of jiujitsu."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris to win by submission (rear-naked choke) in rounds one or two over Khaos Williams. He believes Harris will grapple heavily and that Williams' takedown defense is not bad but Harris is more likely to shoot offensively. He notes Williams' inactivity and real estate business as potential distractions, and trusts Harris' grappling pedigree.

submission
"I'm going to go re naked choke or some kind of submission for carlston Harris in rounds one or two"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khaos Williams 0 130 of 283 45% 131 of 284 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:13
Rolando Bedoya 0 149 of 209 71% 150 of 210 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khaos Williams 0 44 of 88 50% 45 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Rolando Bedoya 0 44 of 56 78% 45 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Khaos Williams 0 39 of 90 43% 39 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Rolando Bedoya 0 40 of 60 66% 40 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Khaos Williams 0 47 of 105 44% 47 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Rolando Bedoya 0 65 of 93 69% 65 of 93 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khaos Williams 130 of 283 45% 68 of 205 29 of 38 33 of 40 126 of 276 4 of 7 0 of 0
Rolando Bedoya 149 of 209 71% 103 of 150 15 of 17 31 of 42 136 of 196 13 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khaos Williams 44 of 88 50% 21 of 59 15 of 19 8 of 10 42 of 84 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rolando Bedoya 44 of 56 78% 26 of 34 9 of 10 9 of 12 37 of 49 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Khaos Williams 39 of 90 43% 17 of 60 8 of 13 14 of 17 37 of 87 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rolando Bedoya 40 of 60 66% 25 of 38 3 of 4 12 of 18 37 of 57 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Khaos Williams 47 of 105 44% 30 of 86 6 of 6 11 of 13 47 of 105 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rolando Bedoya 65 of 93 69% 52 of 78 3 of 3 10 of 12 62 of 90 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rolando Bedoya vs. Kalinn Williams
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Williams (-305), Bedoya (+255)

Round 1
Carrying on the prelims is a welterweight clash when power puncher Williams (13-3, 4-2 UFC) introduces Peruvian newcomer Bedoya (14-1, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion. Fists are sure to fly soon, and referee Keith Peterson is right on top of the nonsense-free action when it begins. Before the looming slugfest, they tap their gloves together. Bedoya starts off with a leg kick, and Williams marches him down and slugs him in the face. Bedoya wobbles back, keeping his head on a swivel, and he appears no worse for wear after the charging salvo. Williams continues plodding forward, stringing punches together, and Bedoya skirts on the outside to protect his mug from the brunt of the damage. Williams shows no fear and throws caution to the wind, catching Bedoya but not hurting him, and the two wind up in the clinch. Bedoya sneaks up a few knees before breaking off, and he flashes out a jab when Williams comes at him. Bedoya pushes out a front kick and a one-two, and Williams no-sells it and throws a straight right hand down the pipe. Bedoya attacks the body with a kick, and he loads up with a few punches to the midsection. Bedoya grins and circles away, smacking the lead leg with a kick but getting belted in the face with a right hand from “Khaos.” Bedoya hammers the breadbasket with a few knees, and Williams gets one off on the break. Williams whiffs with a right hand, and he counters with a left over the guard. Williams intercepts his foe with a short right hand, and Bedoya flashes a big grin after taking it flush. “The Ox Fighter” goes for a kick to the body, and he strings several punches into a body kick as Bedoya grimaces. Bedoya fires back, and Williams grabs hold of his foe to conclude the close round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Williams

Round 2
The second round kicks off with a body kick from the Peruvian fighter, and brimming with confidence, he throws one low. Williams counters with a calf kick, and he slides back from a windmilling right hand that zooms past his face. “Khaos” digs in another low kick, and he catches a front kick to land his shin on the inside. Williams cracks the chin with a few punches, and Bedoya smiles at him and shakes it off, only to absorb a chopping low kick at the end of a combination. Bedoya lets go with a leg kick, and he counters a kick with a right hand around the guard. Williams surges forward with three punches, making the Peruvian smile. They trade leg kicks, and Bedoya gets in a right hand and a front kick. Williams ignores it and comes out firing, and Bedoya catches him with another right on the chin. After a brief clinch, Williams splits it up with a sharp uppercut, and Bedoya answers with a leg kick that makes Williams frown. Williams scores two punches coming forward, and Bedoya shakes them off and starts showboating and taunting his foe. Williams does not bite, instead loading up with two leg kicks, and Bedoya makes a matador motion. Williams clubs his man with a looping left and a hard right leg kick, and Bedoya replies with a knee up the middle. The Peruvian fighter kicks low and then high, surprising “Khaos” with his shin to the chin. Williams tanks it without flinching, and he springs into action with a few punches and a body kick. Williams splits the guard with a pair of punches, and Bedoya answers with a leg kick that irritates Williams. To respond to that, the American pops him with a few punches, and both men tag the other in a fierce exchange. The two welterweights clash legs together with one final kick, and the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Williams

Round 3
There is a final clap of hands to open up the last round, and they begin trading shortly thereafter. Williams smacks his shin on the inside of the leg, and he counters Bedoya’s kick with two punches down Broadway. This leads to a clinch, and they break away and sting one another with power shots. Williams lets fly four punches and a leg kick, and Bedoya replies with a few leg kicks to draw a reaction. Williams is intercepted when lunging, and he takes an elbow that stuns him. Bedoya decides to throw leather, and Williams obliges him and does not throw as many kicks. Bedoya flicks out a few jabs and shells up when Williams swings back at him with a vengeance. Bedoya slips back when tossing out a low kick, and Williams stands right in front of him and strikes. Williams absorbs a flush leg kick that makes him stumble, and his plant leg is compromised and he cannot throw quite as hard as before. Bedoya jabs and sticks a leg kick, and Williams replies in kind. They both push off with lefts, and Bedoya pops his man with a one-two. Williams gets clinched and breaks away with a vertical elbow, and he loops a right hand that smashes square into the newcomer’s chin. Bedoya’s beard is made of tougher stuff, as he does not appear fazed and instead goes right back to chopping at Williams’ leg. Bedoya throws, and Williams replies. Bedoya doubles up on a few jabs, and Williams hurts him with a leg kick. The two rock one another with right hands, and they gather their bearings and hear the final horn blare. This one could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bedoya (29-28 Williams)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bedoya (29-28 Williams)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bedoya (29-28 Williams)

The Official Result
Kalinn Williams def. Rolando Bedoya via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Angelo picks Khaos Williams confidently, citing his insane power and durability. He notes that Rolando Bedoya is hittable, as seen in his fight against Pablo de Horta where he was consistently landed on. Angelo believes if Khaos lands with even 10% of the accuracy Pablo did, he will win by knockout. However, he acknowledges that if Bedoya's chin holds up, his volume could win a decision. Angelo plans to wait for round props before betting.

waiting for round props
"chaos is going to be the pick here he's as I mentioned the at least for now the biggest favorite on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Big Brady picks Williams, calling it a terrible matchup for Bedoya. He notes Bedoya has awful striking defense, walking forward with his hands low, and Williams has elite power. He believes Williams will knock Bedoya out within the first two minutes, as Bedoya's style of eating punches won't work against a power puncher like Williams.

First round knockout prediction
"I think chaos Williams starches bedoya within the first two minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Cody is very confident in Williams, describing Bedoya as a 'dead man walking.' He notes Bedoya's competition in Peru is weak, his striking is wild and technical, and he has no wrestling to avoid Williams' power. Williams has improved significantly, training with top guys, and has knockout power in both hands. He expects an early KO.

Williams inside the distance; Williams round 1
"I would think Roland bedoya is a Dead Man Walking On The Green Mile"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Connor agrees, noting Williams has power and a blitzing style that will work against Bedoya's poor defense. He mentions Williams is durable and has been in scrappy fights. Bedoya is fun but too reckless, and Williams should win.

Bedoya opened +231, now +264; Williams opened -280, now -313.
"Yeah, I mean, I think the prevailing feeling about this matchup should be, why is it happening?"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

The host picks Khaos Williams by knockout in the second round. He believes Williams' higher level experience and bigger knockout power will be decisive in a wild exchange. He notes there is value on Bedoya but prefers the more battle-tested fighter. He also recommends the fight doesn't go to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision, Williams by knockout round 2
"give me chaos Williams by knockout probably in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Paul agrees, saying the obvious play is Williams inside the distance. He notes Williams has 'death touch' and is overdue for a knockout. He expects Williams to come out aggressive and finish early.

Williams inside the distance
"the obvious play is chaos Williams inside the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

The Guru picks Williams, calling Bedoya's debut a terrible matchup. He notes Williams' reach advantage and power, and that Bedoya has been off for over a year. He expects Williams to land a first-round KO, as Bedoya will have octagon jitters on a PPV card.

first round KO
"I think it's a recipe for a first round KO for chaos Williams here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Zane picks Williams because of his massive power and blitzing style, which should overwhelm Bedoya's poor defense. He notes Bedoya is fun but messy, and Williams is durable and can force his fight. Bedoya is likely to get sucked into Williams' brawl and won't make him do something else.

Bedoya opened +231, now +264; Williams opened -280, now -313.
"I don't see Bedoya making him do something else. Everybody should be picking Williams until proved otherwise."
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 93 of 177 52% 103 of 188 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:11
Khaos Williams 1 75 of 224 33% 96 of 246 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 18 of 36 50% 19 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Khaos Williams 0 21 of 58 36% 28 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
2 Randy Brown 0 34 of 69 49% 41 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Khaos Williams 0 25 of 80 31% 34 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
3 Randy Brown 0 41 of 72 56% 43 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Khaos Williams 1 29 of 86 33% 34 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 93 of 177 52% 68 of 144 15 of 22 10 of 11 74 of 156 19 of 21 0 of 0
Khaos Williams 75 of 224 33% 26 of 159 16 of 21 33 of 44 68 of 207 4 of 10 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 18 of 36 50% 12 of 26 5 of 8 1 of 2 14 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0
Khaos Williams 21 of 58 36% 8 of 39 6 of 6 7 of 13 16 of 50 3 of 4 2 of 4
2 Randy Brown 34 of 69 49% 26 of 57 4 of 8 4 of 4 32 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 0
Khaos Williams 25 of 80 31% 7 of 55 6 of 11 12 of 14 24 of 74 1 of 6 0 of 0
3 Randy Brown 41 of 72 56% 30 of 61 6 of 6 5 of 5 28 of 58 13 of 14 0 of 0
Khaos Williams 29 of 86 33% 11 of 65 4 of 4 14 of 17 28 of 83 0 of 0 1 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Kalinn Williams
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Williams (-120), Brown (+100)

Round 1
Two welterweights on the quest to shed the “action fighter” label and move up to contendership will throw down in this important 170-pound matchup that serves as the new main card opener. Both Brown (14-4, 8-4 UFC) and Williams (13-2, 4-1 UFC) are known for their devastating knockouts, even if Williams has the higher knockout rate at just 54% -- whether their reputations precede them, or lasting images like Brown pounding out Bryan Barberena or Williams obliterating Alex Morono or Abdul Razak Alhassan make people remember their power. Hope to not get knocked out will be referee Jason Herzog, who will however be ready to jump in at a moment’s notice should the right strike land. The gloves are touched, and they both throw quick strikes early. Williams goes low with a kick, and he charges in with swiping right hands. Brown hops back and out of the way, and sneaks in a short left hand counter on the way back and out. Williams sits down on a thudding body kick, and he swings wildly as Brown stays elusive while trying not to get tagged with the overwhelming power punches coming his way. Brown reaches out with long jabs, and he relies on his footwork to keep him safe as Williams is not shying away from power. Brown goes high with a kick, and Williams brushes it aside and swings a right hand that makes him slip. “Khaos” gathers himself and presses forward to tie Brown up, and Brown knees him in the chest and scores a straight left hand on the break. Williams unloads with a serious combination that rocks Brown, and Brown dives into a desperation takedown that inadvertently gives up his neck. Williams latches on to a brabo choke while Brown is leaned over on his knees, and he bails on it before gassing his arms as it does not appear tight. Brown just slides back when a looping right hand comes at him, and he slips when tossing out a kick. Brown springs back up and ducks as Williams loads up, and he leaps in the air with a knee. Trying to channel his inner Fedor Emelianenko, Williams attempts to intercept Brown mid-air with a right hand, but it does not quite land flush. Brown lands, and they trade with quick punches until Williams pushes in for a clinch. Brown snags hold of a guillotine choke with his back to the wall, and he introduces his knee to Williams’ jaw. Brown re-pursues the guillotine, and Williams punches the body a few times until Brown jumps for the choke with one second left. The fight does not hit the mat before the horn sounds, and Brown releases the grip instantly.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams

Round 2
The strikers touch gloves to start off the second frame, and Brown unleashes a right hand over the top that shakes Williams up. “Khaos” shakes it off and absorbs a heavy body kick, which lets Brown get comfortable and start dancing. Brown doubles up his jab, catching Williams on the way in and surprising him once more with his strikes. The jabs from Brown continue to pop Williams in the chops, disrupting him momentarily until Williams sits down on an uppercut. Brown leaps forward with a right hand, and he slides and ducks the punches and mocks Williams for his inaccuracy. When Williams kicks at his lead leg, “Rude Boy” checks it and keeps marching forward. He checks a few more, and walks Williams down without exposing himself to anything dangerous. Brown lowers his hands and flashes the jab a few times, and Brown gets a little overconfident and gets cracked. Williams snipes him with a right hand as he blitzes forward, and he bullies the Jamaican all the way to the wall. They separate, and Brown tosses a high kick over the top that skims off Williams’ head. Brown continues to pepper his man with jabs, and he checks the kicks and loads up on a standing elbow that just misses. Williams keeps missing as Brown is dodging and weaving his strikes, and he ducks into an uppercut but does not appear remotely concerned. They both duck down towards one another, and they clash chests as Williams presses him to the wire. Brown ties up a guillotine choke when they are clinched, but he bails on it as Williams continues to hold and grind him. Williams separates with a left hand on the jaw, and he wings a left to the body that comes up short. Brown paws out jabs and keeps his man frustrated, and he just misses a spinning kick. They trade leg kicks, and Williams checks it and points to his own shin confidently. Brown slides a punch and clips Williams with a right hand, and Williams falls forward to clinch. The welterweights hang tight in the clinch until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brown

Round 3
Gloves get touched to lead off the last round, and Brown returns to feeding Williams a steady diet of jabs. Brown sneaks up a head kick quickly, and he hops back when Williams tries and fails to counter him with power strikes. They toss half-hearted leg kicks at one another, and Brown keeps his jab going the whole time. Williams surges forward to throw hands, and Brown leans and shoulder rolls before sliding forward to counter. A right hand from Brown knocks Williams back, and Brown does not take advantage of it to any notable degree. Brown continues to jab, and he splits the guard with a front kick as Williams appears frustrated that he is so inaccurate tonight. Brown again slaps the ball of his foot into Williams’ face, and he ducks back as Williams charges. A short right hand from “Khaos” suddenly blasts Brown on the chin, knocking him down to the mat in a shock. Williams goes after him, lowering himself to the guard, but unable to keep him there. When upright, Brown stings Williams, and they are both rocked. They swing wildly, and “Rude Boy” nails Williams with a rude knee right on the button. Williams wobbles but he won’t fall down, and Brown throws so hard that he actually falls over. Williams follows him over to try to take him down, and Brown defends with his back to the wall and lands a number of illegal elbows to the back of the head despite being warned twice. Williams gets some space and unloads with a clean right hand, and Brown is not fazed as he powers forward. A telegraphed takedown attempt from Brown comes, and Williams stops him but gets pushed up to the wall, where Brown knees him a few times up the middle. Williams leaps forward with a superman punch, and Brown signals that it just missed. The fight ends after a fierce exchange, and they stand before one another after it sounds to talk out what just happened. This will likely be a hotly debated decision, depending on how it turns out, as both men have a case for winning their 15-minute entanglement.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brown (29-28 Brown)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brown (29-28 Brown)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brown (29-28 Brown)

The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Kalinn Williams via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Angelo picks Khaos Williams due to his power and durability, despite acknowledging that Randy Brown is the more technical striker with better grappling. He notes that two of Brown's three UFC losses are by knockout and that Williams has the takedown defense to keep it standing.

"chaos is the pick here because of how dangerous he is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Big Brady picks Khaos Williams to win by second-round knockout. He believes Williams has the power, volume, and durability advantage. Brown is the more skilled striker and grappler, but he has been finished in three of his four losses, including two by knockout. Williams has never been finished and hits hard. Brady thinks Brown will get hit a lot and eventually get knocked out. He expects a war and favors the fighter with more power and durability.

second round knockout
"I like williams here I feel like brown can most definitely be the minute winner here I feel like brown against a better striker but I just feel like williams knocks this guy out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody leans towards Randy Brown, calling it a dogger pass situation. He is encouraged by Brown's recent performances, especially his use of length and range. Cody notes that Brown's losses are to high-level guys and that he seems to be turning a corner. He contrasts Williams' power but stalled progression, and believes Brown's volume and reach will be key. Cody acknowledges it's a close matchup but favors Brown.

"i do see myself leaning towards randy brown i've been uh i've been really encouraged with what you see out of him lately"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Levi picks Randy Brown confidently, calling it his first bet of the night at 1.5 units at +115. He believes Brown's volume, movement, and length will be key, and that Brown is in his prime with experience against top competition. He respects Khaos Williams' power but thinks Brown can outwork him over three rounds. He notes that Brown's last performances show he has turned a corner.

Daniel bets 1.5 units on Randy Brown moneyline at +115. No other props mentioned.
"I took the plus 115 odds on Brown. It's more of a bet on Brown than it is a fade on chaos because I respect chaos."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The host picks Randy Brown, believing he is the better striker with superior movement, leg kicks, and output. He expects Brown to keep Khaos Williams at range and avoid his power shots. He notes Brown's Muay Thai clinch and jiu-jitsu are also advantages. He thinks Williams will get frustrated and rely on power, but Brown's discipline and cardio will carry him to a decision win. He disagrees with Williams being the favorite.

"give me rude boy brandy brown"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Randy Brown as an underdog at +100. He notes that Brown has been improving, using his length and range effectively with a good jab and low kick. Paul believes Brown's chin held up well against Jared Gooden and that he is more well-rounded. He thinks if the fight becomes a volume affair, Brown edges it out, and Brown's grappling could be an advantage. Paul is confident in Brown's path to victory.

"plus 100 on the underdog randy ruboy brown is where i would be putting my money on this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

The MMA Guru picks Khaos Williams, despite acknowledging Brown is more technical. He believes Williams' power and leg kicks will be decisive, and that Brown's chin is suspect, having been KO'd before. He predicts Williams will chop at the legs early and land a big KO in the second round, possibly when Brown is ahead on the scorecards. He notes Williams is young and improving.

"chaos williams by kayla is what we're gonna go with he's not good uh he's not technical"
WIN vs Miguel Baeza
TKO (punches) R3 1:02 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khaos Williams 0 31 of 56 55% 32 of 57 0 of 2 0% 5 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 1 49 of 131 37% 60 of 145 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khaos Williams 0 4 of 7 57% 5 of 8 0 of 2 0% 5 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 0 16 of 32 50% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
2 Khaos Williams 0 23 of 40 57% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 0 26 of 77 33% 26 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Khaos Williams 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miguel Baeza 1 7 of 22 31% 7 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khaos Williams 31 of 56 55% 13 of 35 1 of 4 17 of 17 31 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 49 of 131 37% 23 of 94 6 of 7 20 of 30 36 of 113 2 of 4 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khaos Williams 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 16 of 32 50% 10 of 23 0 of 1 6 of 8 7 of 18 1 of 3 8 of 11
2 Khaos Williams 23 of 40 57% 9 of 24 0 of 2 14 of 14 23 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 26 of 77 33% 8 of 52 6 of 6 12 of 19 25 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Khaos Williams 4 of 9 44% 1 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miguel Baeza 7 of 22 31% 5 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Miguel Baeza vs. Kalinn Williams

Round 1
Hang on tight, welterweight flamethrowers are on deck. Baeza (10-1, 3-1 UFC) will be looking to bounce back from the first defeat in his career against “Khaos” Williams (12-2, 3-1 UFC). Both men are known for their knockout power while neither has ever been knocked out, so something may have to give. Referee Chris Tognoni is lacing his running shoes as we speak, and he steels himself as they touch gloves before throwing down. Williams is the first to give pressure, and he comes forward while Baeza is circling all the way around the cage for a full revolution. Williams looks to slow him with a leg kick, but Baeza is out of harm’s way as he continues to circle. Williams loads up on a power punch, only to hit air. Baeza charges in, and when Williams is there to load up and crack him, Baeza zips away. Williams attempts to cut Baeza off, but he resorts to simply stalking his man down. Williams scores with a calf kick, and Baeza does not answer or do anything but retreat as he takes another kick to the same spot. Williams plods forward, and he walks face-first into a left and a right hook that snap Williams’ head back. Williams cracks Baeza, Baeza cracks him back, and they are throwing bombs suddenly and their eyes are wide open. They both back off and return to the predator-prey relationship of Williams giving chase, until Baeza turns it around on him with a left hand and a loud kick to the body. A body kick from Baeza makes him fall over, and Williams pounces on top and starts delivering ground-and-pound. “Caramel Thunder” dives for a heel hook, and he transitions the submission to a kneebar as Baeza tries to scramble and buck. Williams finds a way to land a big punch from on top, and Baeza keeps pursuing the foot lock. Williams sits up and falls into an inverted heel hook position, and he does not seem concerned as he aims punches to break the grip. Baeza rolls over as he torques the leg, and Williams sits up to land bombs that are doing damage and making Baeza turn away. Williams pounds away until the bell, and does not flinch when standing back up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Baeza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams

Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves before coming out swinging, and like the last round, Williams assumes control of the driver’s seat as he advances without fear. Williams aims a half-hearted kick to the knee, and Baeza replies with one much harder. Williams does not let him get away with it, with a few more kicks on the inside of his foe’s leg. They both trade calf kicks, and Williams looks for a one-two when they settle. Baeza responds in kind, and he quickly flips his front foot up to smack Williams in the face. The impact from “Caramel Thunder” is not the same as Marlon Vera against Frankie Edgar lats week, as Williams eats it like candy and continues moving forward. One low kick from Williams goes south of the border, and Baeza thinks about fighting through it but Tognoni gives him time to recover both mentally and physically. About 45 seconds elapse before Baeza is ready to go back, and they start swinging for the fences. A pair of punches get Williams’ attention, and he slams his shin into Baeza’s leg. Baeza goes after the same strike, and they step back to measure one another as the damage from these strikes registers. Baeza connects with a clean head kick and one to the knee, and Williams’ knee may be compromised as he takes a funny step and switches stances after it. Baeza continues to target the same spot, and Williams aims to pay him back but Baeza’s are more accurate and appear to be more powerful. Baeza sits down on a body kick, and they crash together to throw hands. Baeza wobbles from a left hand but he comes right forward to engage, while Williams ducks back to kick at him. When Baeza scores a thudding calf kick, Williams attacks with a trio of punches that fluster Baeza. They both swing for the fences, and Williams grabs hold of him and pushes him into the wall. Williams comes up with a knee to the body, but it does not hit the body, and instead smashes square into Baeza’s cup. Baeza falls to his knees and cries out in pain, and Tognoni tells him to take all the time he needs. Tognoni then goes over to Williams and gives him his final warning, telling him that even though it was accidental, he has landed two fouls – some may call for a point deduction as it was the second groin shot, but Tognoni lets it remain as a warning. Baeza is clearly compromised, and he works his way back up to his feet. After 100 seconds, he is good to go again. Williams comes out with a big right hand that rings Baeza’s bell, and after a tense exchange, the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Baeza
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Baeza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Baeza

Round 3
The two 170ers touch ‘em up to open the last round, and Baeza just misses with a front kick to start off. When that whiffs, he kicks low, and Williams may be damaged on his front wheel but he is not showing it. They clash together and Williams swings for the bleachers, but Baeza wears them well and comes back at him. “Khaos the Oxfighter” misses with a spinning kick, and he follows the momentum with another kick. Baeza backpedals, chops at the calf, and then targets a second one to the same spot.
At that exact moment, Williams bites down on his mouthpiece and throws three vicious hooks. The third one, a right hand right on the button, smashes into the side of Baeza’s jaw and sends him crashing down to the canvas. Williams leaps down to finish the job, and as he is battering his fallen foe with ground-and-pound, Tognoni jumps in to pull him off as he calls the fight.
After regaining his faculties, Baeza appears to complain, but he is wobbly on his feet when he does manage to get back up. Williams is now the first man to finish “Caramel Thunder” as a pro, doing so after absorbing some serious punishment to that point.

The Official Result
Kalinn Williams def. Miguel Baeza R3 1:02 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Angelo slightly leans toward Khaos Williams due to his knockout power, but is worried about Baeza's potential grappling. He notes that Williams has no wrestling data in the UFC, making his takedown defense an unknown. Angelo thinks the odds should be flipped and that Williams has the power and speed advantage.

"i am very slightly leaning towards chaos because of the knockout potential but i am worried about that pick because i think baeza may look to grapple"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza but is hesitant, acknowledging Khaos Williams' power and better chin. He notes Baeza has been hurt in previous fights and questions his chin. However, Brady sees a path for Baeza using his BJJ black belt to exploit Williams' poor takedown defense, mixing in takedowns to win a decision.

Baeza by decision
"i'm going to take miguel baeza here by decision actually"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Cody believes Baeza will improve after his first loss and has a good game plan: low calf kicks and footwork. He notes Khaos Williams is stationary and heavy on his lead foot, making him vulnerable to leg kicks. He expects Baeza to win by decision or late TKO.

"i feel like miguel beza coming off his first career loss will reassess things better version of himself"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Daniel Levi picks Khaos Williams as the underdog, arguing that Williams has the power advantage and can capitalize on Baeza's tendency to get hit (5 strikes absorbed per minute). He notes that both fighters are hittable but gives Williams the edge in power and believes he can land a fight-changing shot. Levi acknowledges Baeza's calf kicks and black belt but thinks Williams's physicality and pressure will be the difference.

underdog pick
"give me the underdog to get it done"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, believing he is the cleaner striker and will counter Williams' loaded punches. He notes that Baeza has grappling as a backup and is a jiu-jitsu black belt. Jacob thinks Williams will chase a knockout and get countered, and he loves Baeza in this matchup.

"i absolutely love miguel baeza and i hope this is a war i hope he doesn't grapple but i feel like he's going to go to the grappling and give chaos some issues"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Paul thinks Baeza is a clean striker with volume, but worries about his chin being checked. He notes that Khaos Williams has knockout power but hasn't shown it recently. He leans Baeza but has low confidence.

"i think the volume will will lean towards we'll lean towards beza here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Miguel Baeza

The Guru picks Miguel Baeza by third-round submission (D'Arce choke). He expects Williams to have early success with power shots, but Baeza's calf kicks and body work will wear Williams down. In the third round, Baeza will sprawl on a takedown and secure the choke.

submission in round 3 via D'Arce choke
"i'm gonna go miguel bazer i'm gonna go with miguel bazer by third round darsh choke finish"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khaos Williams 0 91 of 260 35% 114 of 286 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
Matthew Semelsberger 0 64 of 141 45% 68 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khaos Williams 0 26 of 83 31% 44 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
Matthew Semelsberger 0 18 of 32 56% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Khaos Williams 0 29 of 80 36% 34 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Matthew Semelsberger 0 23 of 41 56% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Khaos Williams 0 36 of 97 37% 36 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Matthew Semelsberger 0 23 of 68 33% 23 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khaos Williams 91 of 260 35% 44 of 195 18 of 31 29 of 34 87 of 254 4 of 6 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 64 of 141 45% 42 of 116 9 of 11 13 of 14 62 of 137 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khaos Williams 26 of 83 31% 12 of 63 3 of 7 11 of 13 25 of 80 1 of 3 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 18 of 32 56% 11 of 25 4 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Khaos Williams 29 of 80 36% 13 of 59 5 of 8 11 of 13 26 of 77 3 of 3 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 23 of 41 56% 15 of 32 2 of 2 6 of 7 21 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Khaos Williams 36 of 97 37% 19 of 73 10 of 16 7 of 8 36 of 97 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matthew Semelsberger 23 of 68 33% 16 of 59 3 of 5 4 of 4 23 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kalinn Williams vs. Matthew Semelsberger

Round 1
This welterweight battle may be a case of knock out or be knocked out, when Williams (11-2, 2-1 UFC) comes to blows with Semelsberger (8-2, 2-0 UFC). Hanging on tight is referee Herb Dean, who will need to stay light on his feet to keep up as there is an intense touch of gloves between the two. Williams flings a few kicks, and Semelsberger looks for a right hand counter. He tries another when Williams looses a naked kick, and Williams suddenly unloads with a surge of punches. Semelsberger keeps his wits about him, but Williams catches him with a right hand and makes Semelsberger’s knees wilt a little against the fence. Semelsberger tries to fire back, but Williams ignores the strikes and bloodies up the nose of “Semi the Jedi.” Williams presses his man into the fence, where he starts feeding Semelsberger a steady diet of knees. Williams pounds away at his foe’s side, and on the break, he gets off a fast right hand. Three punches connect from Williams, and he gets clipped with a right hand counter that surprises Williams. “Khaos” lands a few low kicks, and he throws inaccurate punches that Semelsberger parries without concern. Another calf kick makes Semelsberger lift his leg up, and Williams swarms him with a barrage only to get sniped with a right hand over the top. Semelsberger puts his foot on the gas with a few more punches, but Williams stops him from this by stringing together a powerful salvo of strikes. A one-two from Semelsberger is well short of the mark, and when he connects with a leg kick, Williams charges to throw hands. Williams backs off to land leg kicks on each side, and Semelsberger chains a jab into an uppercut that snaps Williams’ head back. Williams swings and misses with bombs, and a naked leg kick gets countered by a fierce right hand. Williams swipes with left hands and jabs, and he works the lead leg with a kick. Right before time expires, Williams charges with reckless abandon, but little of note scores before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Williams

Round 2
Williams starts up right where he left off, putting punches together in a lengthy combination that Semelsberger can do nothing but defend. When he gets a turn, Semelsberger scores a few punches, but Williams’ strikes seem far more impactful. Williams gets off a head kick that is easily blocked, and when he reaches with a low kick, a one-two from Semelsberger stings Williams. Semelsberger is ready with an overhand right to ring Williams’ bell when Williams stands still after throwing a kick. Semelsberger walks forward and blasts Williams in the face with a huge right hand, but Williams barely even registers as he comes right back with a combination of punches. Williams powers forward to push Semelsberger into the wire, and he lands a right hand right at the break. Williams paws out a few jabs and deflects a flying knee, and he lunges out with a front kick and a single punch. Williams stumbles as he backs away from a few strikes, but he gets up without concern. Semelsberger jabs the body and gets his nose clocked again with a sharp left hook. Semelsberger chips at the lead leg, and Williams blitzes him with several punches to force Semelsberger to be defensive. Four consecutive jabs from Williams disrupt Semelsberger’s forward movement, but “Semi the Jedi” forces a head kick that rings right off the side of Williams’ head. Both welterweights start brawling, and when Semelsberger lands, Williams waves him on. Semelsberger does not fall for the trap, so Williams kicks his lead leg. Williams throws a wild flurry of punches that are windmilling and nowhere near the mark, but he does manage to close the distance to aim more strikes. Williams lands a few on the inside, but when they separate, Semelsberger clatters a right hand off of Williams’ dome. Williams surges ahead with punches to the head and body, sprinting forward to land them. Semelsberger stays calm, protects himself, and lands a kick right as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Williams

Round 3
The welterweights touch ‘em up to commence the final frame, and Williams is right there after to paw out several jabs and a head kick. Both trade single strikes, and they come together to throw leather but Williams comes out the better. Williams rushes forward with a right hand, and he gets stung with a countershot but Semelsberger is unable to follow it up. Williams pushes the pace, backing Semelsberger up to the fence, but not clinching with him. Semelsberger steps into an elbow, and a counter right hand finds its mark. The two stand in the center of the cage and trade blows, with neither showing any ill effects, until they back off and land solid kicks one after the other. Williams sees a punch coming, slips it and makes Semelsberger pay with an overhand right. A head kick from Williams turns into another high kick and a spinning back kick, but Semelsberger is a foot away from harm. Williams gathers himself, slips a strike and charges with a trio of punches. One lands, and he backs off to get his legs kicked hard. They stand and bang, and every time they do this, Williams chains higher volume together to get the upper hand. Semelsberger has a head kick slap off the guard, but a follow-up uppercut splits the guard and shakes Williams up. “Khaos” embraces the chaos and throws back with bad intentions, with a few punches, a body kick and a spinning back kick. Semelsberger takes them without issue and both men sling leather. Semelsberger starts marking Williams’ leg up with kicks, and Williams’ movement is a little hampered. Williams may not have quite the pop on his punches, but he is throwing so hard he nearly falls over. Williams and Semelsberger trade hands, and Semelsberger backs away to give him one spinning back kick back to him. Semelsberger throws a pair of punches, and Williams points to the ground to embody Max Holloway and incite a brawl. Semelsberger brushes off his chest, and the two start throwing everything they have left into their punches. Both men nail each other with these hilarious haymakers, and both laugh them off and continue to load up. As Williams pushes forward in this exchange, the strikers tie up on the cage until the final horn ends this entertaining slugfest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Semelsberger (29-28 Williams)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams (30-27 Williams)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Williams (30-27 Williams)

The Official Result
Kalinn Williams def. Matthew Semelsberger via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Angelo picks Khaos Williams, citing his power and knockout ability. He notes that Semelsberger has been knocked out before and that Khaos has fought higher quality opponents. He disagrees with Jacob's pick of Semelsberger, arguing that Semelsberger's forward pressure may walk him into a power shot. Angelo also mentions he is waiting for better odds on a Khaos Williams knockout prop.

wins by knockout (waiting for better odds, currently +125 not enough)
"I have chaos winning this fight... chaos got power and matt semelsberger has been knocked out before."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Big Brady favors Williams due to higher level of competition (fought Alex Morono, Abdul Razak Alhassan) and durability (never finished). He notes Semelsberger has been knocked out by an 0-1 fighter and has two losses by finish. He predicts a first-round knockout by Williams.

win by KO in round 1
"Give me chaos williams I'm gonna take him to win I'm going to say first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Cody picks Semelsberger as a live underdog, citing his better output, size, and wrestling. He notes Williams' power but questions his overall game and cardio. Cody suggests Semelsberger could win if he survives the first round and pressures Williams.

"i need a second underdog i think i'm going to go to semel's burger but i could easily get knocked out in the first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Khaos Williams

Daniel Levi picks Khaos Williams, disagreeing with the notion that he is a first-round-or-bust fighter. He points to Williams' decision win over Jeremy Holloway and competitive fight against Michel Pereira as evidence he can go three rounds. He thinks Williams can match Semelsberger in power and physicality, but has more experience. He expects a win by knockout or decision.

"i'm saying chaos williams either by knockout or by decision uh chaos is my pick"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Jacob picks Matthew Semelsberger, emphasizing his volume and kicks to neutralize Khaos Williams' power. He believes Semelsberger can overwhelm Khaos with pressure and leg kicks. Jacob also thinks this could be fight of the night and likes the over on strikes for Semelsberger.

over on strikes for Semelsberger (monkey knife fight)
"I like matthew with this volume i like him to be able to use his kicks early to kind of take that power away from chaos."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

The host picks Matthew Semelsberger, citing his good combinations, leg kicks, and ability to stick and move. He notes Semelsberger's takedown threat and that Khaos Williams loads up on shots, making him telegraph. He believes Semelsberger can avoid Williams' power and win by decision, though he acknowledges Williams' knockout power is a threat. He mentions Semelsberger has been finished before but thinks improvements will keep him safe.

Semelsberger by decision at +320 mentioned
"i'm going to pick someone's burger here i think that he's able to stick and move"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khaos Williams

Paul picks Williams, citing his knockout power and fast hands. He notes Semelsberger's questionable chin and believes Williams will land a clean shot. Paul acknowledges Semelsberger's path to victory but thinks Williams' power is the difference.

"chaos williams you're just dealing with a lot of pressure"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Khaos Williams

The MMA Guru picks Khaos Williams to win by unanimous decision (30-27, with one judge possibly giving Semelsberger a round). He expects a cautious fight with both men respecting each other's power. He predicts Williams will chop at the legs early and land more shots over three rounds, while Semelsberger goes for the head. He thinks it will be a chess match and Williams will be the better man in the third round.

"i'm gonna go with chaos williams and i think i'm gonna go with him by decision... 30-27 unanimous decision"
Alex Morono - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 146 27% 48 of 154 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 1 100 of 162 61% 134 of 214 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 16 of 38 42% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 1 39 of 59 66% 70 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
2 Alex Morono 0 6 of 43 13% 7 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 0 27 of 40 67% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
3 Alex Morono 0 18 of 65 27% 19 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniil Donchenko 0 34 of 63 53% 34 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 146 27% 37 of 138 2 of 7 1 of 1 36 of 137 4 of 9 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 100 of 162 61% 45 of 99 21 of 28 34 of 35 82 of 134 7 of 11 11 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 16 of 38 42% 13 of 33 2 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 39 of 59 66% 23 of 42 8 of 9 8 of 8 25 of 37 3 of 5 11 of 17
2 Alex Morono 6 of 43 13% 6 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 39 1 of 4 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 27 of 40 67% 9 of 18 7 of 10 11 of 12 24 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 18 of 65 27% 18 of 63 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0
Daniil Donchenko 34 of 63 53% 13 of 39 6 of 9 15 of 15 33 of 60 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Angelo picks Daniil Donchenko despite believing Alex Morono is the better fighter skill-for-skill. He explains that Morono is a 'moron' who will stand and trade instead of using his high-level jiu-jitsu. Donchenko hits hard and Morono is on a three-fight skid. He thinks Morono has the easiest path to victory by grappling but won't do it, so he picks Donchenko.

"Denil Donenko is the pick. I I I He just hits too hard and Alex is going to stand there and try to go slike with him. It's just dumb."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Big Brady picks Daniil Donchenko, praising his aggressive style and dangerous striking. He questions Alex Morono's commitment to fighting, noting he has other pursuits and has looked poor in recent fights. He expects Donchenko to pressure and finish Morono early, similar to Carlos Liao's win over Morono.

by first round knockout
"I like Donchenko. I like Donchenko by first round knockout. I think he runs through Alex Morono."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Cody agrees, highlighting Donchenko's power and Morono's chin issues. He notes Donchenko's tendency to gas but expects an early finish. Cody suggests betting Donchenko live after the first round if he doesn't finish, but overall picks Donchenko.

"Donchenko is just highly aggressive and sits down on his punches and you know, maybe he can topple him over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Morono is a subpar athlete who has lost his speed and durability. He notes that Donchenko is young and technical, and that Morono's wins were over past-prime fighters. Connor concludes that Donchenko will win purely based on age and physical decline.

Morono opened at +385, currently +525; Donchenko opened at -500, currently -725
"So it makes perfect sense to then match him up with Daniil Donchenko right now. And that's definitely a fight I have to think about hard to figure out how it's going to go."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Lucrative James picks Daniil Donchenko to win by TKO in round two or three. He trusts Donchenko's youth, physicality, and improvement, while noting that Morono is aging and has a questionable chin. James expects Morono to start well but fade as the fight progresses.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm trusting Donenko. I'm trusting in his youth, physicality, power, durability, upside. and I'm trusting in his improvement upside to get the job done. I think be a TKO in round two or round three."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

The host picks Donchenko by first-round knockout, calling it a horrible stylistic matchup for Morono. He highlights Donchenko's Muay Thai, especially his elbows and knees, and his aggressive pressure. He notes Morono's chin is fading and he struggles with cardio, making him vulnerable to an early finish.

round 1 knockout
"So once again, give me Denil Donenko round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Paul picks Daniil Donchenko, citing his power and aggression. He notes Morono's recent losses and declining durability. Paul expects Donchenko to finish early but warns about his cardio if it goes past the first round. He suggests betting Donchenko but not at heavy favorite odds.

"It's got to be Don Shenko favorite status on this side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Daniil Donchenko

The host picks Daniil Donchenko over Alex Morono. He is very confident, predicting a first-round TKO. He notes Donchenko's aggressive style, elbows, body work, and low kicks. He thinks Morono can take a beating but Donchenko's cutting shots and pressure will overwhelm him early.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Danil Donchenko getting a first round TKO over Alex Morono all day long."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Daniil Donchenko

Zane picks Donchenko based on age and decline of Morono. He notes that Morono is slower and more fragile, and that Donchenko is a young, technical, and violent fighter who can execute at multiple levels. Zane believes Donchenko will simply wreck Morono, as Morono has lost to late-career Niko Price and is past his prime.

Morono opened at +385, currently +525; Donchenko opened at -500, currently -725
"So Donchenko is just going to wreck him. Yeah. That's it. It's just going to go out there and wreck him."
LOSS vs Carlos Leal
KO R1 4:16 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 40 of 95 42% 41 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Carlos Leal 0 79 of 120 65% 81 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 40 of 95 42% 32 of 82 4 of 9 4 of 4 35 of 87 5 of 8 0 of 0
Carlos Leal 79 of 120 65% 49 of 89 28 of 29 2 of 2 54 of 91 25 of 29 0 of 0
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Rodriguez 0 123 of 257 47% 126 of 260 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Alex Morono 0 74 of 257 28% 91 of 276 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Rodriguez 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Daniel Rodriguez 0 44 of 99 44% 44 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 23 of 91 25% 23 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Rodriguez 0 54 of 102 52% 57 of 105 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Alex Morono 0 20 of 85 23% 37 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Rodriguez 123 of 257 47% 44 of 153 56 of 80 23 of 24 117 of 251 6 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Morono 74 of 257 28% 58 of 228 9 of 21 7 of 8 74 of 256 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Rodriguez 25 of 56 44% 7 of 32 11 of 17 7 of 7 25 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 31 of 81 38% 20 of 67 5 of 8 6 of 6 31 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Daniel Rodriguez 44 of 99 44% 19 of 65 18 of 27 7 of 7 44 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 23 of 91 25% 20 of 83 2 of 7 1 of 1 23 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Daniel Rodriguez 54 of 102 52% 18 of 56 27 of 36 9 of 10 48 of 96 6 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Morono 20 of 85 23% 18 of 78 2 of 6 0 of 1 20 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Angelo makes a low-confidence pick for Daniel Rodriguez, citing Alex Morono's unreliability. He notes that Morono is the overall better fighter but can never be trusted. Angelo suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Morono instead, as he believes Morono can win at least one round. He does not bet the moneyline on either fighter.

Considering plus 3.5 bet on Alex Morono if plus money
"The wildly low confidence pick will be Daniel because you just cannot trust Alex morono."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by decision, but notes he needs to see the weigh-ins to confirm. He criticizes Morono's awful performance against Niko Price, where he was gassed after one minute, and notes Morono is on short notice again. He thinks Rodriguez is the better striker and less washed, though both are declining. If Morono looks bad on the scale, Brady would change his pick to a knockout. He expects a decision but is open to a finish if Morono looks terrible.

Rodriguez by decision; if Morono looks awful, change to knockout
"I'm picking D Rod regardless I think he's the better Striker quicker harder hitter and looks less less washed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Rodriguez is a technical brawler who throws combinations and sets up shots, while Morono is a bad athlete who relies on game planning. He points out that Morono's jab is his best weapon but Rodriguez hits harder and is more durable. Connor expects Rodriguez to win a competitive fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Got to go with d rod agreed. But I like the fight a lot because oh, yeah the fight that morono will hang in he will keep it competitive."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel notes that Rodriguez has declined significantly in speed and reflexes, as seen in the Kelvin Gastelum fight, but he still has a speed advantage over Morono, who has never been fast. He thinks Rodriguez's jab and straight punches will get there first against Morono's wild overhands. However, he is not confident and expects the fight to be closer than the odds suggest.

"Sure, pure pick I'll go with D Rod because historically he does have a big speed advantage... but there's a potential this fight plays out closer than the line indicates."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Rodriguez is more well-rounded and technical than Morono. Morono uses footwork but will struggle with Rodriguez's counters and straight shots down the pipe. Rodriguez will walk Morono down, land big strikes, and win on the scorecards.

"I think Rodriguez will do a good job in terms of walking Morono down landing his big strikes and winning this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, criticizing Alex Morono for lacking talent, athleticism, and fast-twitch fibers. He praises Rodriguez's crisp, technical boxing and power, and expects a TKO in the second round. He dismisses Morono's grappling and overall game, calling him a 'flabby soft no Talent having hard worker'.

TKO second round
"I'm going to go with D Rod getting this one done way crisper boxing way more technical boxing way Slicker boxing way more power I'm going to say D Rod gets this one done by TKO second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because he believes Rodriguez's power and durability will be too much for Morono. He notes that Morono often struggles against athletic fighters with power, and Rodriguez, despite being messy, has the tools to outwork and hurt Morono. Zane thinks Morono may have moments but will eventually get cracked.

Rodriguez opened at -190, now -201; Morono opened at +167, now +176.
"I'm still inclined to take rodriguez. It just feels like to me i've seen too many times where morono can get into a fight like this where you're like oh, yeah. No, you've got the right idea to hang with …"
LOSS vs Niko Price
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 108 of 224 48% 138 of 259 5 of 5 100% 0 1 3:37
Alex Morono 0 96 of 210 45% 111 of 225 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 16 of 51 31% 21 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:10
Alex Morono 0 34 of 72 47% 40 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Niko Price 0 34 of 65 52% 50 of 83 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:04
Alex Morono 0 21 of 43 48% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Niko Price 0 58 of 108 53% 67 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Alex Morono 0 41 of 95 43% 41 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 108 of 224 48% 78 of 181 24 of 33 6 of 10 78 of 182 9 of 19 21 of 23
Alex Morono 96 of 210 45% 74 of 184 13 of 15 9 of 11 91 of 204 2 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 16 of 51 31% 12 of 45 4 of 5 0 of 1 14 of 47 0 of 2 2 of 2
Alex Morono 34 of 72 47% 26 of 63 4 of 4 4 of 5 32 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Niko Price 34 of 65 52% 22 of 48 8 of 12 4 of 5 16 of 44 3 of 5 15 of 16
Alex Morono 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 1 of 2 1 of 1 20 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Niko Price 58 of 108 53% 44 of 88 12 of 16 2 of 4 48 of 91 6 of 12 4 of 5
Alex Morono 41 of 95 43% 29 of 81 8 of 9 4 of 5 39 of 92 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono, ignoring their first fight because it was a while ago and both have evolved. He believes Morono is the more technical striker and better grappler, and that his awkward striking will avoid Niko Price's power. He notes Price is always dangerous but thinks Morono's well-roundedness will prevail.

"I think morono is just the better fighter I think he's the more technical Striker he certainly is the better Grappler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady thinks this fight ends inside the distance with someone getting knocked out. He leans toward Alex Morono getting the knockout, citing Niko Price's shot durability and recent KO loss to Robbie Lawler. He compares it to Morono's KO of Donald Cerrone. However, he notes Price has power and a 90% finish rate, so he will play both sides. He considers Price a live dog at 7,300.

fight doesn't go to decision (-200), Alex Morono wins by knockout
"I think it's probably is marona going out there and getting The Knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody leans toward Price, noting his volume and power. He acknowledges Price's durability is questionable but believes Morono's low volume and lack of power make Price live. Cody mentions Price's previous KO of Morono in 2017 and thinks Price can do it again. He warns that Morono may wait for a perfect shot, but Price's pressure could overwhelm him.

"I'm gonna go with the Niko Price direction too... Price has got sickening volume... Morono is not that guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel recalls Morono's struggle against Court McGee and notes Price's power. He thinks it's a dog or pass situation and picks Price to win again.

"I'm gonna go Nico price here to beat him a second time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Morono dominated before getting caught. Price's chin is compromised after recent knockouts, and his confidence is low. Morono's stick-and-move style, power, and defensive jiu-jitsu should allow him to land big shots and finish Price, likely by knockout in the second round.

round 2 knockout
"I think we'll see morono capitalize on that... I think it's ultimately going to be a big shot on the chin that puts Nico price out here so give me Alex morono second round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul leans toward Price, despite acknowledging Price's durability may be fading. He notes Price has sickening volume and power, and Morono's recent performance against Court McGee was poor. Paul thinks Price can outwork Morono and possibly land a KO. He mentions Price's power is the last thing to go and that Morono may be over the hill.

"Everything in my being I know Niko Price is kind of washed but it's like how does Alex Morono lose fights? He gets knocked out... I'm tempted."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, citing Niko Price's recent chin issues and inactivity. He notes that Price has lost his last two by TKO and looked scripted against Lawler. Morono has been more active and consistent, though he didn't look great in his last fight. He predicts Morono by decision, possibly TKO.

Morono by decision
"I'm going to go with Alex morono here um morono by decision TKO maybe but I'll say decision"
WIN vs Court McGee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 60 of 160 37% 78 of 184 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:20
Court McGee 0 38 of 141 26% 42 of 149 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 12 of 50 24% 12 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 20 of 41 48% 36 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:12
Court McGee 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Alex Morono 0 18 of 67 26% 20 of 71 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:08
Court McGee 0 17 of 63 26% 18 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 60 of 160 37% 14 of 73 29 of 55 17 of 32 52 of 148 0 of 1 8 of 11
Court McGee 38 of 141 26% 26 of 118 9 of 18 3 of 5 38 of 139 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 22 of 52 42% 3 of 16 13 of 25 6 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 12 of 50 24% 8 of 42 2 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 20 of 41 48% 7 of 21 8 of 12 5 of 8 12 of 30 0 of 1 8 of 10
Court McGee 9 of 28 32% 6 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Morono 18 of 67 26% 4 of 36 8 of 18 6 of 13 18 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 1
Court McGee 17 of 63 26% 12 of 51 4 of 9 1 of 3 17 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo picks Alex Morono because he believes Morono is a step ahead everywhere in this fight and could potentially finish an aging Court McGee. He notes that McGee relied on his work ethic and chin, but at 39, that chin is gone and hard work alone won't get wins. Morono is somewhat unreliable himself, but Angelo thinks he should be good here.

"Morono is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He notes that Morono is six years younger, has better striking volume, and good jiu-jitsu. He believes Court McGee's durability is waning after recent knockouts, but doesn't expect a finish. He thinks Morono will be better wherever the fight goes.

win by decision
"I'm taking morono here I'm taking morono to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody agrees, noting McGee's recent knockout losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He thinks Morono's volume and speed will be too much, and that McGee's pressure game won't work against a more technical striker. Cody also mentions Morono's competitive fight with Joaquin Buckley has aged well.

"morona kills him... I think it's Justified Chuck on Alex morono"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Alex Morono to finish Court McGee in the first round. He compares McGee to past veterans Morono has stopped, like Josh Burkman and Tim Means, noting McGee is 40 and slow. Vreeland believes Morono's speed, power, and vicious intent will overwhelm McGee, and even if taken down, Morono can pop back up. He predicts a first-round knockout or submission.

first round finish
"I actually think Alex Morano gets a first round finish man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono is younger, more durable, and has better striking volume and power. McGee's chin is fading after recent knockouts. Morono's defensive grappling should be enough to keep the fight standing, where he can land damaging combinations. Expect a finish in the second or third round.

Morono by KO/TKO or submission (club and sub)
"I think he knocks out or clubs and Subs McGee at some point in this matchup early going should be a little bit grindy a little bit close but as this fight starts to wear on is and as morono …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul is confident in Morono, citing McGee's age, declining durability, and recent knockout losses. He notes McGee's wins are over one-dimensional grapplers, while Morono has better footwork, volume, and takedown defense. Paul thinks Morono will outwork McGee and possibly knock him out, as McGee's durability is gone.

by KO
"morona kills him... don't mind Alex morono knockout one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host picks Morono based on output and commitment. He notes Morono looked amazing against Buckley and is better than Ventre. He criticizes McGee's recent losses to Matt Brown and Jeremiah Wells. He predicts neither will get a KO or dominate grappling, so Morono's higher volume will win a decision.

"I'm going to go Alex morono more committed to the game more volume on the feet and I doubt either of them get a KO over over each other"
LOSS vs Joaquin Buckley
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquin Buckley 0 40 of 141 28% 54 of 161 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Alex Morono 0 68 of 176 38% 77 of 186 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquin Buckley 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 10 of 41 24% 14 of 45 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:35
2 Joaquin Buckley 0 15 of 52 28% 25 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
3 Joaquin Buckley 0 13 of 56 23% 17 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Alex Morono 0 40 of 90 44% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquin Buckley 40 of 141 28% 29 of 122 10 of 17 1 of 2 37 of 133 3 of 8 0 of 0
Alex Morono 68 of 176 38% 41 of 134 24 of 36 3 of 6 55 of 141 2 of 9 11 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquin Buckley 12 of 33 36% 9 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Morono 10 of 41 24% 6 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joaquin Buckley 15 of 52 28% 11 of 44 3 of 6 1 of 2 15 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alex Morono 18 of 45 40% 10 of 31 8 of 13 0 of 1 17 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Joaquin Buckley 13 of 56 23% 9 of 49 4 of 7 0 of 0 10 of 51 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Morono 40 of 90 44% 25 of 71 14 of 17 1 of 2 28 of 59 1 of 5 11 of 26
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Alex Morono
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-175), Morono (+145)

Round 1
From one action fight to the next we go, as exciting welterweights Morono (23-8, 1 NC; 12-5, 1 NC UFC) and Buckley (16-6, 6-4 UFC) toe the line in search of another highlight-reel finish. Referee Kerry Hatley will have his hands full, as the match could take place anywhere and end in the blink of an eye. Buckley dances his way to the cage with Beyonce playing, while Morono goes hard with Prong. There is no glove touch to start the fight, and instead Buckley charges like a bull, throwing fists. He ends up grabbing hold of Morono’s legs. Morono pulls his limbs out and returns to striking range, and the welterweights calm down and proceed to measure one another with single blows. Buckley lands a body kick, and Morono splits the guard with a right hand. Morono ducks away from a haymaker and counters with a right hand. Morono catches his man with a right, and Buckley loads up with a right in response to put his man on rubber legs. Morono shakes out the cobwebs and bounces off the fencing, and he chambers a right hand that just misses the forehead. Buckley springs into action with an uppercut, and he spins with a back kick that ends up getting crowded by the Texan. Morono drives a straight right hand after following a jab, and the power punch in response from Buckley grazes off the side of his noggin. Buckley blitzes with a few punches, and Morono is able to parry or avoid them all. A second surge from “New Mansa” also misses the mark each and every time, but Morono does not make him pay for these reckless attacks and instead allows Buckley to hit air. Buckley leaps at him with a knee extended, but Morono is nowhere to be found. Morono hand-fights until putting a right hand on the jaw, and Buckley races after him and tags him right back. Buckley attempts to spin, and Morono’s safe distance disallows it from succeeding. From out of nowhere, Buckley runs at his foe and lifts him off the ground with a double. Morono hits his back and defends with an armbar, and Buckley wriggles his arm out and backs off to escape the guard before upkicks or other submission attempts find him. Buckley lifts him up again, and Morono latches onto a guillotine choke. Buckley ends up slamming Morono down hard to break up the submission, and the energetic round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 2
At the beginning of the round, Buckley is not quite as wild as before, instead lining up a head kick. The Texan counters him with a picture-perfect right hand that sends Buckley flying, and Buckley scrambles back to his feet. Morono allows him to reset so that he can further trade with his opponent, and Buckley aims a few strikes to the body. Morono looks for a high kick that is feet away from the target, and he leans back from a pair of looping hooks that whiz at him. Buckley lumbers forward and suddenly unloads a few huge hooks, and Morono is out of range in time. Morono aims a front kick down the middle when he expected Buckley will come at him, but Buckley does not bite. Buckley kicks the body, and Morono responds with a kick that slaps him in the posterior and makes Buckley grin. Buckley explodes into a combination that is largely blocked and defended by the Fortis MMA fighter, and when he backs off to measure his man, he drills Morono in the ribs with a stern kick. Morono flicks out a number of jabs, and he leans and ducks a punch so that he can catch Buckley with a right hook on the side of the head. Morono measures and releases a head kick that pounds into the guard, and Buckley kicks him in the body again. Buckley tries to corner his foe with a flurry of punches, but Morono will not have it and backs Buckley off. Buckley whiffs on a kick but lands with a body shot, and he ducks a spinning back fist just in the nick of time. Morono strings a few punches together, gets clipped, and responds with a right. Buckley continues to target the body and head indiscriminately in attacks, keeping Morono guessing and not allowing a pattern to emerge. Buckley digs a left to the body and aims a right over the top, but it is a charging left hook when Morono dodges him that catches Morono. Buckley rushes at his man to jam him up against the fencing, and they trade knees before separating at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Buckley leads the dance with a series of punches. Commentator Daniel Cormier starts barking when saying that the fighters “need to bring the dog out,” and Buckley lashes out with power strikes that finally find their home cleanly. A left hand from “New Mansa” busts Morono’s lip, and blood immediately trickles out of his mouth. Morono aims counters, but Buckley appears slightly fresher and able to beat his foe to the punch. Buckley runs forward with a looping left hook, and he slams his right fist into the body. Morono backs him off with a front kick, and the kick rams into his cup. Buckley waves off Hatley and does not want to allow Morono to recover. Morono eats several clean shots, and he is taking damage and trying to back off to survive. Buckley lays into him with a number of unanswered body shots and a few to the head, and Morono hits nothing but air when he replies with a right hand. Buckley spins with a wheel kick, and Morono tackles him to the ground. Buckley bursts back to his feet after only a few seconds on his back, and he smashes Morono in the face with a left hand. Buckley hammers his foe with a number of punches to the body and head, and Morono is leaning against the fence and struggling to stay on his feet. Morono shoots desperately for a takedown, and it is a feeble attempt as he falls to his knees. Buckley lets him stand up so that he can punch the Texan in the face again and again. Morono takes a deep breath and starts firing back, but it is a takedown shot that he goes for a full-throated effort. Buckley stonewalls him and pushes Morono to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to drop down some heavy ground-and-pound. Morono maintains a high guard, and Buckley opens up with several right hands until Morono adjusts. Buckley keeps tightly pressed to “The Great White” to not allow Morono to latch on with a submission, and he sneaks in some ground strikes when he finds openings. Buckley stands up, and lets Morono up with 15 seconds to spare. Morono meanders forward, and he throws everything into one final right hand that ultimately misses and sends him toppling to the mat. Morono rolls to his back, and Buckley returns to the guard to do a little more damage before the final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)

The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Alex Morono via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley because he is the much better striker with more power, speed, and technique. He notes that Alex Morono is well-rounded and underrated but has low takedown accuracy (20%), so he cannot trust him to wrestle. Buckley has decent takedown defense and has faced good wrestlers. Angelo plans to avoid betting on this fight.

"waim Buckley is going to be the pick he's the more dangerous Striker decent takedown defense"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing Buckley's significant power advantage over Alex Morono. He notes that Morono is more of a decision fighter and has been hurt more often recently. He expects the fight to stay standing and that Buckley will eventually land a big shot, predicting a third-round knockout.

third round knockout for Joaquin Buckley
"give me Buckley to win this fight I'll take Buckley to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Cody picks Buckley, citing his speed, athleticism, and ability to land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Morono has taken a lot of damage recently and may be hesitant. Buckley's takedowns and movement should allow him to win rounds, though Cody acknowledges Buckley's history of getting knocked out.

"I am gonna go yokine Buckley... I recognize this as live Underdog potential... but ultimately I do think that Buckley's... rounding out his game"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his superior speed, athleticism, and hand speed. He notes that both fighters have suspect chins but Buckley is the better athlete and is dropping to his proper weight class at 170. He expects Buckley's speed and explosiveness to be the difference, though he acknowledges a chance someone gets knocked out.

"I'm going with Buckley in this fight and I do think there's a chance someone hits the deck here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Joaquin Buckley

Lucrative James picks Buckley by knockout in round two or three. He thinks Morono will be winning early but Buckley will figure out his awkwardness and land heavy shots. He compares it to the Ponzinibbio fight where Morono kept getting caught. He likes over 1.5 rounds as well.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Buckley's gonna get around two or three knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Buckley has the power and agility to catch Morono in pocket exchanges. Morono is durable but leaves openings and has been knocked out before. Buckley should land a big shot and finish him. Morono may win minutes but Buckley's power is the difference. Expect a knockout victory for Buckley.

knockout
"I think Buckley catches him and I think Buckley puts him away give me Buckley by knock out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Paul picks Buckley, expecting a close fight that goes to decision with Buckley landing the more damaging strikes. He notes that both fighters are similar in size, which favors Buckley. Paul mentions that Morono has a questionable chin but hasn't been knocked out recently, so he leans toward Buckley by decision.

Buckley by decision, Over 36.5 significant strikes for Buckley
"Buckley's a pick for me as well... if I was chasing a prop it would probably be Buckley by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Alex Morono, predicting a TKO in the second round. He believes Buckley's intention to take Morono's head off will be the difference, as Morono tries to outpoint to a decision. He notes Morono was doing well against Ponzinibbio until he got knocked out in round three, and that Morono's wins haven't aged well. He also mentions Buckley's size and reach advantage.

TKO second round
"I'm going Joaquin Buckley over Alex morono"
WIN vs Tim Means
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 87 45% 45 of 92 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:46
Tim Means 0 33 of 92 35% 42 of 102 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 32 of 64 50% 34 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Tim Means 0 18 of 58 31% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
Tim Means 0 15 of 34 44% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 87 45% 16 of 52 18 of 29 6 of 6 30 of 74 10 of 13 0 of 0
Tim Means 33 of 92 35% 29 of 86 4 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 86 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 32 of 64 50% 10 of 32 16 of 26 6 of 6 23 of 52 9 of 12 0 of 0
Tim Means 18 of 58 31% 16 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 52 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 8 of 23 34% 6 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 15 of 34 44% 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo leans on Morono, noting his clean striking and recent improvements. He says Tim Means is gritty and well-rounded, and that unless you're ranked or dangerous, you shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favorite over Means. He calls it a close fight and is not betting on it.

"I am gonna lean on him for the pick here but holy crap is this a close fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady is a huge Tim Means fan but has serious concerns about Means' durability at 39 years old and after 48 fights. He notes Means has been getting dropped and finished recently, and questions his focus as he seems more into coaching. Brady compares this to the Morono vs. Cerrone fight, predicting Morono will land a big shot, swarm, and finish Means. He picks Morono by second-round knockout and suggests Means may retire after this fight.

second round knockout
"give me Alex marona to win this fight I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout I think he knocks out Tim Means on Saturday"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and 50 pro fights, leading to durability and speed decline. He notes Means' tendency to gas after the first round and Morono's volume and pressure. He expects Morono to chew away at Means and possibly get a late stoppage. He acknowledges Means' skill but believes his best days are behind him.

"I'm just doubting it on a personal level so we'll take Alex morono to get the job done which pains me because we've been doing this show for like nine years and we've been covering Tim Means fights pretty much …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Connor picks Morono, agreeing that Means is past his prime and gets hurt too often. He highlights Morono's lateral movement, jab, and counter-punching, which will frustrate Means. He thinks Means will have moments but ultimately lose a decision or get dropped.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono but with low confidence, citing Tim Means' age (39-40) and declining durability as the deciding factor. He notes that statistically, Means is competitive and would be a live dog if younger, but Means' recent fights show he can't take damage like before. Levi expects a competitive fight but favors Morono's unorthodox style and durability. He passes on betting due to the price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation.

pass on betting at -225; fight could go to decision or be a war
"I'm gonna pick Alex Morano but it's not a confident pick and it's not something I'm interested it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono's pressure, pace, and volume will be too much for Means, who has diminished durability at 39. Means is the better technical striker but can't take shots like before. Morono will march forward, land big shots, and likely find a knockout or submission. Means may have moments but Morono's relentless style will overwhelm him.

inside the distance, TKO
"gimme Alex morono inside the distance I'm gonna call it via TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Morono. He notes that Means gasses after 6-7 minutes and lacks a grappling game. He mentions that Morono might mix in takedowns and fish for a submission, and that the market has moved on that prop. He sees Morono as the rightful favorite.

submission prop (market moved from 9-1 to 6.5-1)
"my biggest struggle yeah I just I just can't get behind the dirty bird at this point he seems to really absolutely guess about six seven minutes into every single fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, noting that he had a full training camp and has better hand speed and cardio. He believes Tim Means has slowed down and will struggle with Morono's pace. He predicts a dominant decision or a late finish.

dominant decision win 30-27
"Alex morono I think is going to win this matchup... I see him getting finished on the feet maybe as the fight goes on or maybe there'll be a dominant decision win for morono here 30 27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Zane picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and tendency to get hurt now. He notes that Means' pressure-counter style leaves him vulnerable, and Morono's awkward but effective striking, good footwork, and jab will cause problems. He thinks Morono will land a big counter and potentially drop Means, though a decision is likely.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
KO (punches) R3 2:29 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 66 of 155 42% 66 of 155 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 1 38 of 131 29% 38 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 1 17 of 55 30% 17 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Morono 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 1 18 of 40 45% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Alex Morono 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Santiago Ponzinibbio 66 of 155 42% 31 of 99 26 of 47 9 of 9 65 of 153 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 38 of 131 29% 34 of 120 4 of 11 0 of 0 34 of 124 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Santiago Ponzinibbio 22 of 42 52% 6 of 19 11 of 18 5 of 5 22 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 17 of 55 30% 14 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 48 0 of 0 4 of 7
2 Santiago Ponzinibbio 26 of 73 35% 12 of 48 12 of 23 2 of 2 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Morono 13 of 50 26% 12 of 45 1 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Santiago Ponzinibbio 18 of 40 45% 13 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 2
Alex Morono 8 of 26 30% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.

"ponzanibio is the pick but avoid the power do what you do stay technical use the range pour on some volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.

Ponzinibbio wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I'm gonna take pawns and maybe to win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.

Ponzinibbio by decision
"I would have to say that pausing Ebu just goes there and works morono over... I do have him winning by decision more specifically"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.

Odds: Morono opened +220, dropped to +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I still think I'm going to have to take him for having a full camp. Ponsinibio style doesn't really change ever from opponent to opponent."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.

"I still think he gets it done but you just can't act surprised if he doesn't"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"pumping up this weekend on panzanibio I'd say I don't mind it I don't mind that one bit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.

"I'm with you I'm gonna take uh ponzanibio as well minus 180 seems relatively Fair too to be perfectly honest so I'm a little bit surprised by that number particularly with Alex morono coming in on short notice"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.

"I'm gonna be going with Santiago ponz nibio over Robbie Lawler"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Zane picks Ponzinibbio, emphasizing his ability to rally back in fights and his power. He notes Morono's grit but says Ponzinibbio's sustained offense and punching power are a level above Morono's recent opponents. Zane is concerned about Morono's short notice but trusts Ponzinibbio's experience.

Odds: Morono opened +220, now +151; Ponzinibbio opened -260, now -182.
"I'm going to pick Santiago Ponson to be out here. I just think that despite even beyond the short notice Ponson to be Oh getting put away early by Legion, the longest concern, but the way he's rallied back against …"
Expert Picks (3)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono to win, but thinks the -325 line is too wide. He notes Morono's experience and recent improvements, but also his takedown defense issues. He expects Morono to capitalize on the feet and possibly get a submission or ground-and-pound stoppage.

I'm not personally willing to lay the -325
"I'ma go with Alex Morano to win this fight but uh I do think it's a bit wide"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The host picks Alex Morono by submission, likely in the mid-second round. He notes that Khaos Williams is wild and powerful but has suspect striking defense and may be vulnerable to Morono's jiu-jitsu. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds at plus money as a violence bet.

under 2.5 rounds at +140, fight doesn't go to decision at -110
"I'm going to say Williams I think he gets a little bit too wild you know Maronna might be able to catch him first maybe even go to take down and then work his jiu-jitsu but I think that we get Moreau know I'm gonna take Moroni by sub probably …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono over Khaos Williams, citing Morono's experience, cardio, and the fact that he hasn't been KO'd often. He expects a close first round but then Morono's experience takes over, leading to a second-round submission.

second round submission
"Alex Moreno gets to win the first round is gonna be a bit close and back and forth but then the four camps gonna come into favor Alex Moreno who has great cardio anywhere and he's gonna be able to win the second and third round I believe he'll get …"