UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 32
Height 5' 7"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mario Bautista
5.3 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.98 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.91 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Miles Johns
3.36 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.99 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
1.22 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Mario Bautista - Fight History
SCHED vs Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ thinks Sandhagen most likely wins by decision, noting that Sandhagen decision at +190 makes sense. He acknowledges the possibility of a submission again but leans toward a decision win. He mentions the fight is expected to go over 2.5 rounds and that the distance is likely.

Sandhagen by decision +190; Sandhagen sub +1200; fight goes distance -210; over 2.5 rounds -275
"Brain just tells me most likely Sanhagen decision. I know some people might be thinking, 'Oh, but could he sub him again?' Even I know my brother's thinking that's possible. Respect. But I think Sanhagen on the cards chat at …"
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ picks Cory Sandhagen by decision, highlighting his elite long-range striking, footwork, and improved wrestling. He believes Sandhagen's precision and ability to create space will neutralize Bautista's pressure and clinch game. He expects a hard-fought three-round fight with Sandhagen doing more damage and avoiding takedowns.

"I think Cory Sanhagen beats him again. I don't think it's a first round submission like last time."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ picks Cory Sandhagen to win a decision, citing his crafty striking, dynamic weapons, and superior submission grappling. He believes Sandhagen's footwork and distance management will give Bautista trouble, and that Bautista's volume-based style won't be enough to outwork Sandhagen. AJ also notes that Sandhagen has fought better competition and has a clear edge in the grappling exchanges.

Sandhagen by decision at +175; fight goes over 2.5 rounds at -255
"A Sanhagen decision makes a lot of sense to me. It's a minus 140 money line for Sanhagen."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ picks Sandhagen by decision in a competitive three-round affair, noting Bautista is tough but Sandhagen is too much. He wishes it were five rounds.

"Sandhagen Bautista Sandhagen decision in a competitive three-round affair. I wish it was five rounds, though."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ picks Cory Sandhagen to win a decision in a competitive fight with Mario Bautista. He mentions Sandhagen by decision at plus 180 as a prop, indicating he sees it as a likely outcome but not a finish.

Sandhagen by decision plus 180
"I got Sanhagen on the cards in a competitive fight with Mario Batista. He'll win a decision plus 180."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

AJ leans toward Cory Sandhagen, believing his getup game is superior and that he won't be on his back long. He thinks Sandhagen will mix it up striking and take two out of three rounds. AJ also mentions the fight going over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"I feel like Cory's not going to be on his back too long. I think Cory and him are going to mix it up striking. I think Cory takes two out of three."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista because he believes Bautista is the better overall wrestler with incredible scrambles, and has leveled up significantly since their first fight. He notes that Sandhagen's losses are to wrestlers and Bautista is the better wrestler. He thinks Bautista will wrestle and control the fight, and that Sandhagen's striking advantage may not be enough.

"I think Mario wins this fight. I think Mario's the better overall wrestler. I think Mario's scrambles are absolutely incredible."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo thinks Mario has improved more than Cory over the years, becoming the cleaner boxer and better wrestler. He notes Cory's awkwardness could trouble Mario but believes Mario's scrambles and overall evolution give him the edge. He placed a quarter unit on Mario at +125.

Bet a quarter unit on Mario Bautista at +125.
"I'm on the Mario side. I think he's the better striker. I think he's the better wrestler."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2026 (14 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by split decision. He acknowledges Sandhagen's striking advantage but notes Bautista's improved grappling and Sandhagen's poor takedown defense. He thinks Bautista can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He calls it an extremely close fight and doesn't have a strong read.

"I'm going to take Mario Batista to win like a split decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Big Brady passes on this fight entirely. He acknowledges Bautista as a live dog but lacks confidence to bet, expecting a close decision that could go to the judges. He does not make a pick.

"Sanhagen Batista. Yeah, nothing sticking out here. I think um Batista is a live dog, but you know, I just don't really see a reason to get involved here."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)

Big Brady does not have a clear pick for this fight. He calls it a close, high-level bantamweight fight that he doesn't plan to bet on. He notes Sandhagen has better volume and tools on the feet, while Bautista has more power and can win minutes in the clinch and on the mat. He expects a split decision and sees value on Bautista at plus money, but is not committing.

"It's a fun fight. It's a high level fight in the bantamweight division, but it's a fight that I don't think I'm betting on."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Cody picks Cory Sandhagen, highlighting his superior striking, scrambling ability, and takedown defense. He notes Sandhagen's success against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and Moraes, and believes Bautista's wrestling is not at that level. He expects Sandhagen to edge out a decision.

"I got Cory Sanhagen to win the rematch. ... I do feel like Sanhagen is just maybe going to be a little slightly the better striker."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi picks Mario Bautista to upset Cory Sandhagen, citing Sandhagen's tendency to choke in big fights and his recent title fight loss. He notes that Bautista is hungry, coming off a career-best performance, and has a competitive history with Sandhagen. Levi expects a close fight that could go either way, but leans toward the underdog.

"I'm going to pick Mario Bautista to come out here and upset Cory Sanhagen and win the rematch."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Jacob picks Cory Sandhagen because he believes the fight will be mostly striking and Sandhagen rarely loses striking matches. He notes that Sandhagen is more active and lands more strikes, and that Bautista's wrestling may not be enough to overcome Sandhagen's movement and volume. He thinks Sandhagen will outpoint Bautista to a decision win.

"I think Cory has proven in his career he is more active with his striking. He lands more with the judges. I I think that he's just going to be moving, moving, moving. Touch, touch, touch, touch, touch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista via decision, citing Bautista's improved boxing, cage control, and career trajectory. He sees it as a 50/50 fight but favors Bautista as the underdog due to Sandhagen's recent chin issues and Bautista's superior training environment at MMA Lab. He notes Sandhagen's slight edge in kicks and submissions but believes Bautista's advantages in close rounds will be decisive.

Mario Bautista by decision
"I'm going to pick Mario in this one. I'm going to pick Mario. I'm not going to lie, him being the underdog is definitely pushing me to bet him because I feel like this is a 50/50 fight either way."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host acknowledges Sandhagen won the first meeting via first-round armbar in 2019, but expects Bautista's improvements and physical confidence to help him muzzle Sandhagen, push him against the cage, and edge out a decision.

"I expect Bautista's improvements and physical confidence as well to really help him here to muzzle Sandhagen, push him against the cage, maybe making it a little bit boring, but I think Bautista will edge out a decision here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista's improvements in physicality, defensive grappling, and clinch work will allow him to make the fight ugly and grind out a decision win. He thinks Bautista can replicate the style he used against Aldo to neutralize Sandhagen's unorthodox striking.

Bautista by decision
"I'm going to go Bautista. I'm going to go Bautista by decision. I don't mind the slight plus money on him in this spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Paul picks Sandhagen but is torn, acknowledging both fighters have improved. He sees Sandhagen's volume as the key but respects Bautista's growth. He prefers to watch live and possibly bet in-play.

Mentions Sandhagen by sub at +800 as a fun longshot but not expected
"I'll pick Sanhagen for the purposes of this show, but more of a fight that I want to get a feel for, um, live and see how it actually plays out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista to win. He is frustrated with Cory Sandhagen, calling him a nerd and stating he is done with him. He believes Bautista will mix in grappling and be the aggressor, which will sway judges. He notes that Sandhagen often lets fights get away from him when the opponent is the lead.

"I'm going to go Mario Batista here. ... I'm going against Corey Sandhagen, dude. I'm [ __ ] done with him."
Submission R2 4:46 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 15 of 27 55% 49 of 63 5 of 7 71% 1 0 5:47
Vinicius Oliveira 0 12 of 21 57% 18 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 3 of 9 33% 22 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Mario Bautista 0 12 of 18 66% 27 of 34 4 of 5 80% 1 0 3:29
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 15 of 27 55% 10 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 12 0 of 2 9 of 13
Vinicius Oliveira 12 of 21 57% 3 of 10 3 of 5 6 of 6 9 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 3 of 9 33% 1 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 12 of 18 66% 9 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 2 7 of 8
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 3 of 9 0 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-185); Oliveira (+155)

Round 1
All eyes are on this bantamweight main attraction, with the UFC’s No. 9 Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) putting his superior number on the line against the surging 11th-ranked Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC). Whether a top-10 fighter is cemented or elevated, referee Herb Dean is on top of everything. He brings them together to the center of the cage, where the fighters calmly touch gloves.
Oliveira starts off with a front kick up the middle, only to be met with a body kick flying back. Oliveira chops at the front leg, working the calf a few times and dropping his hands to motion to someone outside the cage. Bautista swings and misses, allowing Oliveira to grab hold of him and clinch. Oh no. Here we go again. Oliveira presses heavily on the MMA Lab representative, thwarting Bautista’s initial escape attempts. Bautista manages to free himself from the grasp, but Oliveira is quick to re-engage with an attempt. They fall to the floor during a grappling exchange, and Oliveira is quicker on his feet and isolates Bautista’s right leg for a single. Bautista keeps his balance and slaps Oliveira upside the head a few times, and they spin around one another as Bautista follows through to drag the fight down and establish top control.
Oliveira hits his back and hunts for a leglock, and Bautista defends by twisting all the way around and climbing into half guard. The action slows to a crawl as Bautista smothers on top, with Oliveira locking him down with his arms hooked around his foe’s. When Bautista tries to posture up, Oliveira kicks him off. Bautista just misses with a leaping right hand, and he has an axe kick blocked. Bautista tries to move himself back into the guard, and Oliveira’s upkicks keep him honest. Bautista manages to score with a few punches to the body, but otherwise he stays out of harm until the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
Bautista starts the round aggressively, taking the fight to the ground early. Oliveira climbs back up thanks in part to snagging his fingers in the fence, and he is admonished for it and hurled back down to the mat by the American. A mat return soon follows when Oliveira scoots upright. Bautista cannot keep him down, and when he backs off to find an angle back in, he walks into a left hand but still scores a right. Oliveira appears lackadaisical and sloppy, his hands by his waist as he prepares to defend another takedown shot. Oliveira lunges behind an inaccurate right, and Bautista corners him against the cage and goes to take him down.
Oliveira manages to get him down instead by catching a kick, only for Bautista to reverse him and wind up in the position the ended the previous round. The Brazilian’s upkicks are less hostile than before, so Bautista is able to get into his guard and transition fairly quickly to half guard. Oliveira still slowly manages to frame off the chest, recovering back to the full guard and closing it. Bautista opens it up with a few elbows, slashing them down and pushing through to half guard, the side and eventually a crucifix. Bautista jams down a number of elbows and thumping punches, and he switches things up with a sudden, unexpected kimura.
He cranks that submission in order to brilliantly take the back of his adversary, and he slips both hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. The fight went from zero to 60 in a hurry, and Oliveira is in big, big trouble. After barely a second or two, Oliveira realizes his goose is cooked and frantically taps out before he goes out.
Just like that, Bautista has notched his first stoppage since 2023 and rebounds from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a huge way. The victor lauds coach John Crouch for his grappling and jitz training to be able to pull off that thrilling grappling sequence that is best shown in slow-motion. The MMA Lab rep calls for a rematch with Cory Sandhagen when on the microphone, and that is one worth watching that could easily headline a Fight Night card. If that transpires, sign us up. Also, Sherdog will be in the building at UFC Houston in two weeks, so be sure to tune into our extra live coverage throughout the week. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Vinicius Oliveira R2 4:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.

"Mario Batista is going to be the pick. I think Mario can go dog for dog with Venicious and he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.

by third round submission
"I'm going to take Mario Batista to win this fight. I'm going to say he wins this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.

"I think I'm going to go the opposite end on Venicius Olivera... this guy's about as big as 135 pounds as you're possibly going to get."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.

Same odds discussion as Zane.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.

under 4.5 rounds, Mario Bautista wins in round 4 or 5
"My prediction will be Mario Batista to get this one done in the championship rounds inside the distance, probably submission for the first time in Venicious Olivivera's career."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.

inside the distance
"So, give me Maru Bautista inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes the distance
"My concerns for Olive Vera here, obviously he's had quite the run... I do have concerns about his gas tank in a five round fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.

decision 4 rounds to 1
"I think he'll win a decision, five four rounds to one. A four rounds to one decision win for Mario Bautista."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.

Bautista opened at -140, currently -160; Oliveira opened at +120, currently +140. Zane thinks the line is fair and could go to -200.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 32 of 54 59% 81 of 105 11 of 14 78% 0 0 10:46
Mario Bautista 1 20 of 54 37% 33 of 67 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 6 83% 32 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:37
Mario Bautista 0 1 of 1 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Mario Bautista 1 9 of 28 32% 14 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 27 55% 20 of 32 7 of 9 77% 0 0 3:07
Mario Bautista 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 32 of 54 59% 24 of 44 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 44 2 of 2 7 of 8
Mario Bautista 20 of 54 37% 6 of 37 11 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 50 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 6
Mario Bautista 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 10 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mario Bautista 9 of 28 32% 3 of 19 4 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 15 of 27 55% 9 of 20 4 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Mario Bautista 10 of 25 40% 3 of 18 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-535), Bautista (+400)

Round 1
Fresh off his first career loss—a decision to champ Merab Dvalishvili—Nurmagomedov (18-1, 6-1 UFC) may not have the unbeaten shine of his brother Usman or cousin Khabib any longer, but at 29 years of age he still should have plenty left to give. He looks for a bounce-back performance against Bautista (16-2, 10-2 UFC), a tricky MMA Lab export that has already played spoiler to two recent high-profile adversaries in Jose Aldo and Patrick Mix. Can the wiry bantamweight pull off yet another upset? Referee Jason Herzog will be there for it every step of the way, including the initial fist bump.
Bautista bounces in and out, and he delivers an introductory body kick that lands with a concussive thud. Nurmagomedov snatches the limb out of the air and wrangles the MMA Lab fighter to the mat. Bautista scrambles to work his way up, and Nurmagomedov violently mat returns him. Bautista flips over to grip hold of the Russian’s left ankle, and he uses it as a possible toe hold-slash-ankle lock to crank it as hard as he can. Nurmagomedov toughs out the submission and keeps moving, preventing his foot from getting locked up or ripped off, and he establishes himself in side control. Nurmagomedov settles himself down and works on Bautista with short left hands, and Bautista’s scramble is active as can be. Nurmagomedov wraps his arm around the back of the head to keep Bautista on the floor, bowling him back over with his shoulder.
Bautista stays busy moving, bucking and shifting, and Nurmagomedov deftly stifles it all and imposes his will. The massive betting favorite shimmies over to get to the side, and he racks Bautista up with an elbow that forces an immediate change of position. Bautista bucks all the way to get to his knees and stand, and Nurmagomedov clings to him from behind with the body triangle affixed to fully control the Arizona native. Nurmagomedov works with his free right hand to soften Bautista up on the side of his melon, and he hand-fights to get his right arm free to set something up. Nurmagomedov readjusts his body lock around the waist, and Bautista turns his trunk towards the fence so he takes away the choking leverage of his adversary. Nurmagomedov happily maintains control and bops Bautista any time he can until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
The fighters touch ā€˜em up and start kicking at one another. Bautista times a picture-perfect knee while Nurmagomedov is ducking, and he sends the Russian crashing to the canvas. Nurmagomedov blinks it out and goes after a takedown. Bautista backs him off and times a body shot, but Nurmagomedov is a man possessed and secures the takedown he was seeking before. The once-beaten fighter positions himself in half guard while wrapping his arms around the side of his opponent’s head, and Bautista willingly gives up his back so he can try to escape. Like before, Nurmagomedov snatches up back control and the body triangle. Bautista fights to one side and makes Nurmagomedov adjust to the other with his legs, so the MMA Lab product quickly twists to the other to roll to his knees. Nurmagomedov follows him, arms still wrapped around Bautista from behind, and Bautista scrambles and hits a brilliant switch to put Nurmagomedov on his seat.
Bautista stands back, lets Nurmagomedov stand up and wings a big right hand. Nurmagomedov counters with his own right hook, so Bautista walks him down and shoots for a takedown. They clack heads together when Bautista was aiming for a shoulder strike, and Nurmagomedov follows through and puts the underdog flat on his back. Nurmagomedov easily climbs over to side control, using his shoulder to press on Bautista’s face. Nurmagomedov follows a turning Bautista to secure his back, but Bautista still manages to get all the way around and back to his feet. With 35 seconds to go in the round, Nurmagomedov boots his man in the stomach. Bautista sticks out a jab and is countered, but he fires back and stuns the Russian for a moment. Nurmagomedov kicks him upside the head, and Bautista responds with a pair of body kicks.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 3
The touch of gloves is a swift one, as Bautista senses the scores could be tied or he could be down on the scorecards, and he answers the bell accordingly. Racing right at the Russian with punches, he sets up a head kick that just misses. Nurmagomedov races a left hand at him, but it is his follow-up head kick that gets Bautista’s attention even though it only partially connects. Bautista delivers a body kick, and Nurmagomedov fires back with two low kicks and a couple punches up top. The bantamweights bang their heads together again when advancing, and Nurmagomedov recovers just the quicker and pursues a level change. Bautista defends until he gets taken down, and he muscles his way back up with the wall at his side. Nurmagomedov goes for the takedown from behind, allowing Bautista to turn so he can knee him in the stomach. Nurmagomedov isolates a single and puts the MMA Lab fighter on the canvas, but only for a second before Bautista is upright once more.
The midpoint of the round is reached, and Bautista scores a pair of punches and is met with a brisk takedown that sweeps him off his feet. Nurmagomedov cannot control him on the mat, so he settles for pushing the Arizonan against the wall. Bautista rolls all the way through to escape, only for Nurmagomedov to smother him on the canvas and keep him grounded. Nurmagomedov knees his man in the side and steps over to three-quarter mount, so Bautista twists himself about. Nurmagomedov chains submissions and mat returns when able, and Bautista fights valiantly and nobly but is still being controlled with the grappling game of the Russian. Nurmagomedov goes for a single, and he runs Bautista from one end of the wall to the other to drive him back down. Official takedown numbers may be high even if control time is not nearly as substantial as it was in the previous match involving the heavyweights, and Bautista is fighting with all his might to free himself. With 13 seconds to go, he does, and he proceeds to bang it out with the Russian with swinging fists and looping high kicks. Nurmagomedov walks off and raises his arms before time expires, and the two reach the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)

The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Minus 420, he'll probably look it.
"Umar's going to be the pick. I don't think Mario's going to get away with that random forward or cage control pressure. ... It's three rounds, Umar wins this fight. Minus 420, he'll probably look it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Umar by second round submission
"I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to take down Bautista and finish him here on the mat. Give me Umar Nurmagomedov to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

"I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

"So picking new, uh, Nirmagamad off, but that, you know, VOC should be recognizing stuff like this from what it is, uh, Umar is a huge favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

wins by decision
"I'm going to go Umar Nurmagomedov to win this decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission
"I think it's a 3027 or a submission rear naked choke win from Uma. I think it's a confident win here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

small shot on Bautista for some people
"I don't mind a small shot on Bautista for some people, but as an official prediction, I'm going to go Nurmagamedov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

"I don't love the line. I don't love the line. But I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for more than 2.5 total rounds
"I've got Umar dragging him down against the cage, knee to the thigh, one hook in, maybe gets the back at the end of one of the rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.

Umar by decision or submission
"In three rounds, I really do just have to pick Umar. Whether it's Batista taking time to cool down or taking time to heat up. I think either way, it spells disaster for Batista."
WIN vs Patchy Mix
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 173 of 302 57% 173 of 302 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 122 of 304 40% 122 of 304 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 43 of 91 47% 43 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 36 of 74 48% 36 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 103 63% 65 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 59 of 111 53% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 108 60% 65 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 27 of 119 22% 27 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 173 of 302 57% 96 of 216 58 of 66 19 of 20 172 of 301 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 122 of 304 40% 92 of 265 14 of 22 16 of 17 118 of 299 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 43 of 91 47% 18 of 60 18 of 24 7 of 7 43 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 36 of 74 48% 22 of 58 5 of 7 9 of 9 35 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 65 of 103 63% 42 of 78 20 of 21 3 of 4 64 of 102 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 59 of 111 53% 49 of 96 5 of 9 5 of 6 56 of 108 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 65 of 108 60% 36 of 78 20 of 21 9 of 9 65 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 27 of 119 22% 21 of 111 4 of 6 2 of 2 27 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Patrick ā€œPatchyā€ Mix
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mix (-180), Bautista (+150)

Round 1
Keith Peterson will officiate "Patchy" Mix's UFC debut. They touch gloves. Bautista wastes no time and starts punching to the body and throwing leg kicks. Bautista is throwing out jabs and straight rights at Mix. Nice right hand to the body by Bautista. Mix eats a 1-2 and hasn't been able to get anything off. Mix is starting to throw his jab, but is eating leg kicks from Bautista. Mix is backed up by a right hand from Bautista. Mix is starting to throw his own kicks and slowly getting more comfortable inside the Octagon. Nice right straight for Bautista that stings Mix. Bautista is repeatedly throwing 1-2 combinations and having success. Two minutes left. Mix throwing some half-hearted leg kicks that aren't landing. Bautista is having success going to the body. Nice body kick by Bautista. Mix is standing still and getting hit without showing much defense or doing anything offensively. Very poor first impression on the big stage. The round ends with Bautista stinging Mix with a combination.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
Mix comes out throwing calf kicks. Nice body kick scores for Bautista. Bautista jabbing to both the body and head. Mix lands a solid right hand, but Bautista connects with a looping left in response. Bautista is much busier and has a far greater output so far. Mix is reacting better than in the first round, connecting with some right hooks and catching Bautista as he comes in. Mix's corner is calling for takedown attempts, but he hasn't tried to grapple at all. Bautista landing some nice jabs. Nice head kick lands by Mix. Bautista is now backing up, allowing Mix to throw a 1-2. This is a much better round for Mix. Bautista and Mix are going tit for tat, both hitting each other with stiff jabs. A big left hand lands for Bautista. Mix tries a jumping knee that is way off the mark. Bautista is bloodied below his right eye from the jabs of Mix. Bautista is coming on late and is pouring on punches, allowing him to cement this round in his favor.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 3
The final round opens with Mix being more aggressive as he knows he needs a finish. Mix goes for a desperate takedown and eats punches from Bautista as a result. Bautista is repeatedly finding a home for his right hand. Mix is now cut above his right eye. Bautista is in full control, jabbing away and outclassing Mix. Bautista eats a 1-2 but answers back with a low kick of his own. Mix lands a slapping body kick. Mix is chasing after Bautista but is unable to land much. Bautista's footwork is making a huge difference as Mix can't keep up with his movement. Mix lands a nice left straight but eats a jab. Bautista throws out a head kick that misses its mark. Nice 1-2 from Bautista. More leg kicks from Bautista. Mix lands a nice left hand and a knee with 30 seconds left to go, but it winds up being far too little. Bautista throws a jumping knee as the round ends. A deflating debut for Mix.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Patrick Mix via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.

"I am going to pick Patchy though. ... Josh's confidence in Patchy and how good he is and how he's going to dominate here is pretty contagious."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.

Mix by submission in round 2
"I think Patchy gets Batista down here. And once he gets him down, I think he's staying there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Connor thinks the odds are fair.
"I think I'm going to pick Patchy Mix."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.

"I think that we're going to see Bautista shut down the grappling game of Mitch or Mix and then eventually outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker and from there he'll be able to put …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.

Finish prediction: first or second round submission (guillotine or anaconda). Mentions a $10K bonus for a brutal finish.
"I've got Patchy Mix finishing Mario Batista and there's 10K on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Zane thinks the odds are close and reasonable.
"I got to pick Mario Batista here."
CANCEL vs Marlon Vera
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)

This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.

"Mario was supposed to fight Cheeto Vera, but Cheeto dropped."
WIN vs JosƩ Aldo
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JosƩ Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JosƩ Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JosƩ Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JosƩ Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
JosƩ Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
JosƩ Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
JosƩ Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
JosƩ Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-155), Aldo (+130)

Round 1
Once dumped unceremoniously on the prelims, cooler heads have prevailed as ā€œThe King of Rioā€ Aldo (32-8, 14-7 UFC) is now positioned firmly on the main card of UFC 307. While the beloved former featherweight king was previously ready to say farewell to the sport, he appears reinvigorated and in as great of condition as ever. The promotion opted to match him against fellow striker Bautista (14-2, 8-2 UFC), in what may turn out to be a battle of leg kicks. Referee Mike Beltran will preside over the bantamweights, and he watches on as they tap their fists together to say hello. Bautista is the first to land a leg kick, and he punches his way into close range. Aldo blocks a head kick and kicks the lead leg back, and he allows Bautista to buzz past him and lets go with another one of his patented low kicks. Bautista splits the guard with a right hand, and he strings a few punches together to the body before shooting in for a takedown. Aldo places his back against the cage, stifling any hopes of a takedown, and they trade knees on the inside. Bautista irritates Aldo with a number of shoulder strikes, dirty boxing his opponent and kneeing him anywhere he can find a target. Beltran asks for more activity than short strikes, and Bautista changes levels but is stuffed again. A third effort similarly falls short. Aldo looks to his corner for ideas on how to escape, and Beltran is almost ready to get involved. Bautista slashes with an elbow and scores several more knees until Aldo has had enough and he escapes. Bautista scores a knee but is met with a low kick, and he jumps forward to strike and gets Aldo’s attention. Aldo springs away, and he has a left hand brush past his face and steels himself to stop a takedown. Bautista gets back into the clinch, where he stomps on Aldo’s toes and makes it grindy. Beltran tells them to work to finish, and Aldo shoves him away. Aldo walks him down and misses with a left hook, but he snaps out two jabs and a short punch combo. Aldo blocks the counters and reaches out with a left hand, and he gets knocked back when committing to a low kick. Aldo nails Bautista with an overhand right hand, and Bautista tries to pay him back with one immediately. Bautista kicks the former champ in the ribs and dances away from a one-two to peck at Aldo. ā€œThe King of Rioā€ knocks Bautista back a few steps with a combination of punches, and he ducks a whizzing foot to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
Fists are bumped to open the second stanza, and Aldo is ready for an advancing Bautista and lifts a knee preemptively. Bautista reaches him with a few distance strikes, and he dips down with a left and a right. A few snapping jabs shred a cut open on Bautista’s right eye, and Bautista’s head gets snapped back. Aldo tags him with a few left hands and a powerful knee, the latter landing when Bautista shot for a takedown. Aldo scores a left, and Bautista gets back going again and lines up long punches down the pipe. Aldo comes up short with another intercepting elbow, and he catches Bautista with a left and a right. Bautista walks him down and into a few more blows, and they land punches at the same time. Aldo drops his hands, and Bautista shoots for a takedown. Aldo keeps himself upright and absorbs several shoulder strikes and short blows from his opponent with his back to the cage. Beltran calls for Bautista to do more, and Bautista answers with a thumping shoulder strike and a level change. Aldo stops the second from succeeding, and he is met with a few more shoulder shots before splitting. Aldo tags Bautista with a knee, and when Bautista pays him back, Aldo gets angry. Unleashing massive power, Aldo lets his hands go, and he knocks Bautista around but cannot stun him. Bautista gets behind a jab, stabbing out his strikes until diving after a single. Aldo’s takedown defense is immaculate thus far, but he gets leaned on by the younger, more energetic fighter. Bautista lifts a leg up to try to ground him, and Aldo hops around to keep his balance before shoving Bautista away. Aldo unleashes a fury of four punches, and when going for more, Bautista surprises him with a jump knee. Aldo swings hard and misses, allowing Bautista to try and fail with one more takedown before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 3
Reaching the final frame, the bantamweights meet in the middle for a glove touch and a brief embrace. Aldo is still throwing heat, however, and he winds up with a right hand that comes up short. He pops out his jab a few times to follow, snapping Bautista’s head back when entering. Bautista jabs him back, and his high kick slides off the shoulder. Bautista scores a one-two, and Aldo peppers him with jabs and an overhand right. Bautista pokes out with jabs and a low kick, and Aldo’s strikes are far more impactful as Bautista reacts nearly every time he absorbs a blow. Bautista pressures forward and walks into a left hook, and he wings a right hand over the top to reply. Aldo digs a left to the body and is met with a charging takedown that pushes Aldo to the fence but no further. The Brazilian does not budge, fighting off a subsequent trip and otherwise being shoved against the fence. Bautista nearly disrupts Aldo’s balance and drags him to a knee, but Aldo pops back up as if his seat was on fire. Bautista doggedly pursues the takedown as Beltran calls for activity, and before long, there is a separation. Bautista immediately charges in for a double, and the crowd is not thrilled. Beltran does not wait long before telling Bautista to improve their position, and he nearly breaks them up but Aldo manages to do it for him. Aldo bursts into action, swinging with bad intentions and knocking Bautista back. Bautista tries to tie him up, and he drops low for a single to take the wind out of Aldo’s sails. Aldo lands two punches, catches Bautista mid-air with another and then knees his man in the gut as the final horn blares. It could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Jose Aldo via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes JosƩ Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
JosƩ Aldo

Big Brady picks JosƩ Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
JosƩ Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
JosƩ Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks JosƩ Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
JosƩ Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks JosƩ Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
JosƩ Aldo

Jeff Fox picks JosƩ Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
JosƩ Aldo

The MMA Guru picks JosƩ Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-175), Bautista (+145)

Round 1
A spot in the top 15 at bantamweight is on the line for this ā€œfeatured fight of the night.ā€ Simon (20-4, 8-3 UFC) lost in his last fight in a main event, and Bautista (13-2, 7-2 UFC) has rattled off five straight in the Octagon. The two speedy fighters will be overseen by referee Mark Smith, and they race towards one another without a glove touch in sight. As Bautista starts off with leg kicks, Simon opts to jump over one. Bautista continues spamming kicks, and one glances off the cup. Simon shakes it and signals to Smith he does not need a break. Bautista changes his trajectory and aims a kick at the head, and Simon cannot find his distance with Bautista kicking again and again. Simon times one advancing movement of his foe with a big left hand, and he clips Bautista with a right hand when Bautista does not get away in time. Bautista lances the guard with two punches, and he connects with a flying knee as well but he is the one that hits the ground. Bautista jumps back to his feet before Simon can climb on top of him, and he leaps at Simon with a knee. Simon catches him in the air and tackles him to the canvas, where he lands on top of his man and quickly gets to half guard. Simon skitters over to the side, and he threatens with a guillotine choke before Bautista scrambles back to his feet. Bautista escapes the choke and scores two big punches on the way up and out. Simon chambers and fires a pair of heavier low kicks, and he walks through a step-in knee so he can take Bautista down. Bautista fights off one attempt, and he gets away and prepares a knee when Simon comes at him. Simon takes it like a champ and keeps plowing forward, and he succeeds in pushing Bautista against the wall. Bautista fights his way out of the tie-up and chases Simon down, working on the lead leg of his opponent and sticking out a few jabs. Bautista unloads with a right hand after a jab, and he falls forward to his face. Simon lets him up so he can slug it out with him, and Bautista responds with two jabs and a body shot. Bautista aims a kick to the ribs, and he follows it with two more. Bautista rushes after his foe with a jump knee, and he gets cracked with a left hand and falls over. Bautista scrambles wildly and fights off a back take to get back upright, and Simon gives chase until the wild round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
The round kicks off with several kicks for Bautista, who spins his way into a wheel kick that misses by a matter of inches. Both fighters swing with major power and do not find their home, and Simon opens up with a combination only to get countered and driven back. Simon kicks low and gets checked, and Bautista strings together five punches and keeps the pace up. Simon chambers but does not release his strikes until unloading with a left to the body, and Bautista’s volume triples him up. Bautista swings so hard with a right and a left hook that he almost goes down, and he catches himself in the process. Simon scores a right and shoots in for a double, pushing Bautista back to the wire but halted from lifting Bautista up in the air. Bautista escapes the position and chains a number of punches together before Simon can get him back. Bautista connects with a crisp elbow, and Simon gets stunned and winds up to throw back but learns that Bautista is out of the way. Bautista rips a few shots to the body that land with thumps, and Simon looks for a straight right hand. Bautista retaliates with his own straight right, and Simon sneaks forward and catches him with a knee. Simon pushes out a right hand, and Bautista belts him in the body with a powerful liver kick. Bautista drives a knee to the solar plexus and takes a left hand that bloodies his nose, and he looks for an uppercut. Simon jabs and digs a right to the body, and Bautista counters him with multiple powerful blows. Simon shakes off the cobwebs and shoots for a double, and Bautista shuts him down and pushes off. Bautista lands at the end of a right hand, and Simon gets backed off by subsequent jabs and a knee that bounces off his guard. Bautista reaches out with a right, and Simon responds with a takedown. Bautista stops it, dodges a right hand and sticks out a front kick that smacks Simon in the face right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 3
The bantamweights are ready and rearing to go to start off the final frame, and they proceed to open up with flurries of punches. The heavy shots from Simon continue to bloody the nose of his opponent, but Bautista is accurate and putting up decent numbers. Bautista ducks under a big punch and goes after his own takedown, but Simon turns the tables and lifts him up in the air. In true Matt Hughes fashion, Simon carries Bautista from one side of the cage to the other, and he slams Bautista down on his elbow. Simon lowers himself down in half guard to squeeze with an arm-triangle choke, but Bautista’s leg fighting drags him back to guard. The two scramble madly until Bautista escapes well enough to wall-walk, and he is back up in the blink of an eye. Simon slips a punch and scores a left, and Bautista steps in with a knee that is just short. Bautista does not allow Simon to take a break, but Simon is ready and willing to trade furious. Simon continues to pursue takedowns, and Bautista fights them off and backs Simon up against the cage. Bautista dings Simon with straight punches, more content to touch than load up on anything of merit. Bautista boots Simon in the guts with a kick, and he chains punches together with cardio not an issue at all. Bautista plinks Simon with accurate punches, and Simon desperately goes for a takedown as his gas tank appears to be fading. Bautista stands him up and busts him up with a continuously flood of fists. Simon is tough and still looking for takedowns, but Bautista is a stone wall at this point and ready to throw hands. Simon gets stood up again and tries for a jump knee, and Bautista pursues a takedown to conclude the fight. He does not get it before the bell, ending one heck of a scrap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 90 of 174 51% 108 of 192 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 79 of 137 57% 102 of 161 2 of 10 20% 1 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 29 of 48 60% 38 of 57 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:28
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 19 of 25 76% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
2 Mario Bautista 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 32 of 67 47% 34 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 52 40% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 28 of 45 62% 41 of 59 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 90 of 174 51% 48 of 123 22 of 30 20 of 21 52 of 129 37 of 42 1 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 79 of 137 57% 48 of 103 21 of 22 10 of 12 51 of 101 24 of 30 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 29 of 48 60% 11 of 27 11 of 14 7 of 7 13 of 28 15 of 18 1 of 2
Da'Mon Blackshear 19 of 25 76% 11 of 17 3 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 40 of 74 54% 25 of 54 7 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 56 17 of 18 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 32 of 67 47% 22 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 53 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 21 of 52 40% 12 of 42 4 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 45 5 of 6 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 28 of 45 62% 15 of 31 10 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 30 7 of 9 4 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Da'Mon Blackshear
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-225), Blackshear (+180)

Round 1
While the aforementioned Munhoz stepped up last month to save that fight, Blackshear (14-5-1, 2-1-1 UFC) could make history by becoming the first UFC fighter in the modern era to win two fights within seven days – obviously excluding tournament fights from the days of old. Just a week ago, Blackshear hit a twister submission on Jose Johnson, so Bautista (12-2, 4-2 UFC) will have to be on his toes as he goes from expecting to fight striker Cody Garbrandt to someone in Blackshear that holds most of his wins by submission. Keeping this bantamweight scrap on the up-and-up will be referee Bryan Miner, and it starts with a sporting glove touch. Blackshear is the one to push the pace immediately, and he parries a few jabs and strikes back with a leg kick. Bautista responds with his own leg kick that he turns his hips into, and Blackshear strides forward through a second. Blackshear kicks the side, and they come together throwing haymakers. Neither lands with anything cleanly, and Blackshear rolls when Bautista launches a huge right hand. Blackshear crashes the pocket and ties Bautista up in order to go after a trip takedown from behind, and Bautista keeps his balance and works his way to the fence. Blackshear peppers his man with knees while maintaining the body lock, and he succeeds in slinging the MMA Lab product down to the canvas. Bautista’s guard is active the moment he hits the floor, and he works his way to his seat and the cage wall. Blackshear lifts one leg all the way up in the air for a complete split, and Bautista wrenches his leg free and stands back up. Punching his way out of the clinch, Bautista engages another from a different angle so that he can measure ā€œDa Monsterā€ with a knee on the chin. Blackshear connects with a calf kick that nearly trips Bautista up, and Bautista recovers and belts Blackshear in the side of the head with a right hand. Blackshear kicks the body and shoots in for a takedown, and he drops Bautista to one knee but cannot keep him there for more than a couple seconds. As Blackshear circles around, he takes the back and kicks Bautista’s legs out from beneath him to pull off a mat return. Bautista scrambles brilliantly to turn himself around and press himself on top of Blackshear, who is going after another takedown. Bautista snatches this up to secure a guillotine choke, and Blackshear is not remotely concerned as he motions a thumbs-up before pulling his neck out. Both men fight back to their feet, and Blackshear misses with a short elbow as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear

Round 2
The 135ers touch gloves at the last second, and Blackshear starts off the round with a chopping leg kick. Bautista swings hard back at him, with punches that come extremely close but do not connect. Bautista loads up on punches, and Blackshear crowds him and considers a body lock before eating an elbow on the mug. Bautista turns the tables on him by shooting in for a double, and he clasps his hands but is unable to ground the taller Blackshear. Blackshear cracks Bautista with several short but powerful elbows on the inside, and Bautista gives him one back to break apart. Bautista lashes out with a kick on the calf, and he springs forward with a one-two that is intercepted with a leg kick coming his way. Blackshear ties his opponent up and jams him against the fencing, and he plants an elbow on the ear. Both men wildly jockey for position before releasing their pummels, and Bautista comes out firing with a head kick that brushes past Blackshear’s hair. Blackshear doubles up on three low inside leg kicks, and he chambers and fires one to the body to keep Bautista guessing. Bautista replies with body shots that set up a takedown entry, and Blackshear shuts it down and turns him around in the clinch. The two both connect with short elbows before splitting up, and Blackshear hunts for a takedown in the open cage but shuts it down when Bautista stops him. Bautista gets off a right hand, and Blackshear appears to be slowing and is less elusive than the previous frame. Blackshear shoots in for a double, and he takes Bautista off his feet. Bautista immediately explodes back to his feet, and the two get back to striking range. Blackshear splits the guard with a right hand, and Bautista returns fire with a left hook. Blackshear catches a kick, and Bautista pulls it back and strikes to the lead leg. The two clinch up, and Bautista pursues a single. When Blackshear stops it, Bautista wings an elbow, and Blackshear ducks it and strafes to the side. The round ends with Bautista giving chase.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear

Round 3
There is a final glove touch to commence the final frame. Bautista pushes the pace, and he racks a right hand on the temple. Blackshear wears it well but is putting his back to the cage. Blackshear uses his range to keep Bautista at bay, but Bautista reaches him with several flush right hands. Blackshear is slowing down considerably, while Bautista is finding his home with his big right hand more and more. Bautista pursues a takedown, and Blackshear puts his back flat against the fence to stifle it. Bautista gets off a single elbow before backing off, but he meanders right back to tie his adversary up and go for another level change. Blackshear shuts this down, and he pushes out a few jabs before Bautista shoots again. This time, Blackshear is unable to halt it, and Bautista quickly slides around to take his foe’s back. Bautista gets one hook in as Blackshear pushes his foot off the cage, and Blackshear uses his leverage to turn himself over to his knees. Bautista is a 135-pound weight on his back, keeping Blackshear from standing up for more than a second. Bautista attacks the body with a knee, and he drags Blackshear back down to secure partial back control. Bautista finds himself somehow in a twister setup position, but instead of attempting it, he lands ground-and-pound. Both men fight back to their feet as Blackshear scrambles with all his might, Blackshear appears fresher now and rails Bautista with a straight right hand. Bautista crumbles to the mat, but he is able to recover and open his guard up when Blackshear climbs into it. This allows Bautista to hit a sweep, and he puts Blackshear on his back with seconds left in the fight. A few strikes from the MMA Lab export conclude the match, and it is entirely possible that Blackshear will be the first fighter in modern UFC history to notch two wins within a week.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Da’Mon Blackshear via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

win by KO, round 1
"I just see Mario Batista knocking him out just touching the chin at some point... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

over on fight duration; Bautista by decision
"I still gotta take Batista again I just think he is the better Fighter the what ifs of what if this thing gets extended well listen I'm sure he was ready for that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Dog or pass; Bautista by decision
"I'm just going to slightly lean towards Bautista... I think the pace of Bautista is going to kind of pull him away in the second and third rounds and kind of get him this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.

"I'm picking Batista to win and I think Batista probably gets it done by decision"
Miles Johns - Fight History
LOSS vs Daniel Marcos
Submission R2 4:23 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 28 of 54 51% 33 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:34
Daniel Marcos 0 27 of 47 57% 42 of 69 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 8 of 20 40% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Daniel Marcos 0 12 of 21 57% 25 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
2 Miles Johns 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Daniel Marcos 0 15 of 26 57% 17 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 28 of 54 51% 21 of 45 3 of 5 4 of 4 28 of 49 0 of 5 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 27 of 47 57% 15 of 33 8 of 10 4 of 4 14 of 34 13 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 8 of 20 40% 4 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 13 5 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 12 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 20 of 34 58% 17 of 29 2 of 4 1 of 1 20 of 32 0 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 15 of 26 57% 10 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Angelo picks Daniel Marcos because of his superior cardio and cleaner striking. He notes that Miles Johns will come out hot and win the first round, but will fade as the fight goes on, allowing Marcos to take over. He also mentions a potential bet on Miles Johns plus 3.5 rounds, as Johns is likely to win one round.

Miles Johns plus 3.5 rounds (spread bet)
"Daniel's probably the cleaner overall striker. Miles has more power. As long as Daniel avoids the haymakers, I'm expecting him to win here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady sees this as a close fight, noting that Daniel Marcos has a nice record but he thought Marcos lost the Davey Grant fight. He mentions Miles Johns has a wrestling background and surprisingly good cardio lately, while Marcos has slowed down in past fights. He favors Marcos' distance striking but thinks Johns has more power and the fight goes to a split decision, leaning toward Johns due to the corrupt judges.

split decision
"I'm going to leave Miles John's here in a very close fight, but I think this fight has split decision written all over it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Cody picks Johns as a dog, citing his improved performance against Matsumoto and Marcos' inconsistency. He thinks Johns' wrestling and volume can earn him a decision.

"Give me dog money here on Miles Johns."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not provide a clear pick for this fight. He discusses Adrian Yanez vs Christian Quinones instead, which is not on the card. He mentions Miles Johns and Daniel Marcos only in passing, but does not give a prediction.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The host believes Marcos has a better all-around game and will pick Johns apart from distance, especially by chewing away at the lead leg. This should slow Johns down and allow Marcos to win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Marcos will showcase a better all-around game, picking apart Jon's from distance and really chewing away at that lead leg."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Paul leans Johns but is passing due to uncertainty. He notes both fighters' inconsistency and the short-notice changes, but likes Johns at plus money.

"I'm going to say Dogger Pass, and I'm going to take Johns as the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The Guru picks Daniel Marcos over Miles Johns. He notes that Marcos has been competitive with top bantamweights like Davy Grant and Montel Jackson, while Johns is on a two-fight losing streak. He highlights Marcos's nasty knees up the middle as a key factor against the stationary Johns. He predicts a TKO finish, as Johns doesn't move enough to avoid Marcos's pressure.

"I'm going to take Daniel Marcos to win this fight via TKO."
LOSS vs Jean Matsumoto
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 83 of 184 45% 89 of 191 5 of 8 62% 0 0 3:12
Jean Matsumoto 0 95 of 233 40% 109 of 249 0 of 3 0% 2 1 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 22 of 42 52% 23 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Jean Matsumoto 0 16 of 49 32% 20 of 54 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:22
2 Miles Johns 0 34 of 67 50% 35 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:26
Jean Matsumoto 0 35 of 84 41% 39 of 89 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:27
3 Miles Johns 0 27 of 75 36% 31 of 80 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:04
Jean Matsumoto 0 44 of 100 44% 50 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 83 of 184 45% 70 of 170 12 of 13 1 of 1 78 of 175 5 of 8 0 of 1
Jean Matsumoto 95 of 233 40% 49 of 160 27 of 38 19 of 35 87 of 224 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 22 of 42 52% 17 of 37 5 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 1
Jean Matsumoto 16 of 49 32% 8 of 29 5 of 9 3 of 11 15 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 34 of 67 50% 31 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 35 of 84 41% 15 of 55 14 of 19 6 of 10 33 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 27 of 75 36% 22 of 70 4 of 4 1 of 1 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 44 of 100 44% 26 of 76 8 of 10 10 of 14 39 of 94 5 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Miles Johns vs. Jean Matsumoto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matsumoto (-310); Johns (+250)

Round 1
A pair of bantamweights trying to bounce back from tough decision losses will come to blows next, with one of the two falling to the first losing streak of their career barring something bizarre. Johns (15-3, 1 NC; 6-3, 1 NC UFC) has not been the poster boy for high activity since coming to the organization in 2019, as this will be his first trip to the cage this year. His foe Matsumoto (16-1, 2-1 UFC) came up short to Rob Font in a ā€œseparate the wheat from the chaffā€ pairing, although some scoring it gave it to the 25-year-old Brazilian. Referee Herb Dean takes charge of the cage, paying close attention as the fighters decide against touching gloves.
They stay a safe distance from one another, with Matsumoto watching out for Johns’ anticipated blitzes. Johns rushes out behind a few punches, but they are out of range. When Matsumoto commits to a low kick, Johns wings a right hand over the top. He follows it with a few more up the middle, and keeps Matsumoto on his back foot with his surges. Johns dips and wings an overhand right, and his guard is raised well in time to defend against the counter. ā€œChapoā€ beats the once-beaten athlete to the punch literally and figuratively, clubbing him with his fists before crashing the pocket to shoot for a double. Lifting Matsumoto up in the air, Johns gingerly deposits his man down much kinder than a previous bantamweight tonight. Matsumoto hangs on with his right arm draped around Johns’ neck for a guillotine choke, and Johns is suddenly trapped as his head turns red and veins bulge. Johns does not appear overly concerned, and he slides his neck out before long.
Matsumoto is able to fight back to his feet, and he immediately faces cracking right and left hands from the Marathon MMA fighter. Matsumoto evades and tries to counter, but Johns is faster and putting his punches together. Matsumoto lets loose a body kick that does land, and Johns strikes him back immediately. Matsumoto zings a left hand that grazes the top of his foe’s head, and Johns appears to have to gather himself before winging responses. Matsumoto leaps forward with a flying knee, and Johns grabs him midair and slings him to the mat like a back of groceries. Matsumoto jumps back up to his feet with the fence behind him, and he frames off with an elbow. They both let their hands go, hooking their arms at the crook of the elbow. Matsumoto turns the tables on the American by shooting for a single, and Johns pushes—and not grabs—the fence to rebound. Matsumoto lets him have it with one last elbow before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Matsumoto is the immediate aggressor to start the round, letting fly a head kick before Johns can shift into gear. Matsumoto chops the front leg of Johns and uses it to set punches up upstairs. Johns throws back, while avoiding the looping counters of his foe. Matsumoto works the body with both legs, trying to stay away from the counters that Johns commits to regularly. Nearly each time Matsumoto goes to a kick, Johns is ready with a right or left hook. This has decent effect, but he falls in love with his big power that he overswings with. Matsumoto strings together short but effective combinations, usually ending with a body shot.
Johns clubs his man behind the ear, sending Matsumoto staggering back, but Matsumoto is able to gain a full head of steam as he jumps at Johns with a flying knee. Once more, Johns times the jump to tackle Matsumoto to the floor. Matsumoto defends with a guillotine choke, using it to sit up and push Johns to the fence. Johns stands, and Matsumoto tags him with a few strikes before the reset. Matsumoto snaps out a left hand that gets Johns’ attention, and Johns bites down on his gumshield and hurls three hooks back at him. Johns tags his opponent with right hands, and a left hook scores just before Matsumoto goes for a body kick. Johns hurls his looping punches, snapping the head back when he lands, while Matsumoto is more than willing to stand in the pocket. A jump knee from Matsumoto drills Johns in the chest, and Johns grips hold of him and turns him to the wall. Matsumoto breaks free and tosses out a kick, and Johns responds with looping punches. Johns fakes a takedown shot that makes Matsumoto hit the deck, and he evades the follow-up strikes when the younger fighter gets up and chases after him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto

Round 3
The fight could be up for grabs in this last round, and Matsumoto knows this well by going back to attacking Johns’ lead leg. A low kick from Matsumoto trips Johns up, and Johns explodes back to his feet and drills Matsumoto in the face with a right hand. Johns connects with a calf kick that forces a stance switch, and Matsumoto backs off and rolls with a huge overhand right. Matsumoto’s jab pierces through the guard, and Johns’ hands are up to defend the worst of the additional blows. Johns leans on his own jab to rifle off a few one-twos, using straight strikes instead of the booming hooks from downtown. Meanwhile, Matsumoto does not waver from his approach of breaking down his opponent with body work to set up head shots. Johns sees this approach coming and tags him with two hooks, and he catches a body kick and sets it down before something can come of it. Johns puts fists on Matsumoto, and Matsumoto drives him back with a crisp uppercut.
Matsumoto intercepts his foe with a slapping low kick, and ā€œChapoā€ is struggling to put all of his weight on it. Matsumoto dances back and slips in a few more low kicks and a body kick, and now Johns briefly changes stances after absorbing the damage. Matsumoto circles all the way around, a 360-degree revolution, to settle again and kick at Johns’ legs. Johns fires off huge punches that knock Matsumoto back, including a power right hand as Matsumoto kicks at him. Johns swings for the bleachers, and Matsumoto is tough as nails but is forced to deal with a takedown shot after taking blows to the head. Matsumoto briefly clings to a guillotine, and Johns steps over to the side to get out of it. Matsumoto works his way back up with Johns behind him, and Johns trips him back out. This cycle nearly continues when Johns jams knees to the back of the younger fighter’s thigh, and all Matsumoto can offer is a handful of no-look back elbows. Matsumoto puts his back to the fence as he stands, his cheek leaking from absorbed strikes, and he pushes off with 15 seconds to spare. Johns opens up with two punches that miss, and Matsumoto pursues his own double as time expires. It could go either way here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns (29-28 Johns)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Matsumoto (29-28 Matsumoto)

The Official Result
Jean Matsumoto def. Miles Johns via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns as a dog, noting he is a strong wrestler with heavy hands and explosive speed. He thinks Matsumoto gets hit a lot and cuts easily, and in Las Vegas damage matters. Angelo likes the plus money on Johns and may bet the spread (+3.5) instead of the moneyline.

Considering betting Miles Johns +3.5 spread.
"I like the dog here. I'm going to pick Miles John's at two to one almost three to one for Gene Matsimoto."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto, criticizing Miles Johns for not using his wrestling and having low volume. He believes Matsumoto's higher volume and ability to mix in takedowns will be key. Brady expects Matsumoto to win by decision, though he notes the fight is not exciting.

"I like Matsumoto here. I'll take Matsumoto to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Connor picks Matsumoto, describing him as a brute who sits down on his punches and forces opponents to prove they can handle his power. He notes that Johns struggles when opponents stay in his face and keep up the pace, as seen against Felipe Lima. Connor believes Matsumoto's pressure, boxing, and ability to cut off the cage will overwhelm Johns, though he acknowledges Johns hits hard and could land a big shot.

Odds mentioned: Johns opened +190, currently +260; Matsumoto opened -225, currently -310.
"I think that Matsumoto was just a little bit more on that Felipe Lima side of things."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host is a big fan of Matsumoto and thinks he can replicate what Philippe Lima did to Miles Johns. He expects Matsumoto to use a Muay Thai heavy approach, mix in takedowns, and chip away at Johns' lead leg, eventually winning on the scorecards.

"I think he can replicate what Philippe Lima was able to do to Miles John's last time around. utilize his Muay Thai heavy approach, maybe mix in some takedowns, but I think for the most part, Matsumoto will chip away …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The MMA Guru picks Jean Matsumoto, noting he arguably beat Rob Font and has multiple paths to victory. He criticizes Miles Johns as flat-footed and coiled up, which will allow Matsumoto to mix in grappling and striking. He predicts a decision win for Matsumoto, possibly 30-27.

"I've got to go with Gene Matsamuto. He arguably beat Rob Font."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Zane picks Matsumoto, highlighting his fast hands, good mobility, and technical boxing. He notes that Johns is a wrestle-boxer who needs to get takedowns to succeed, but Matsumoto's pressure and power will make that difficult. Zane compares Matsumoto to a bantamweight Danny Yay or Josh Emmett, a reliable gatekeeper who is always dangerous.

Odds mentioned: Johns opened +190, currently +260; Matsumoto opened -225, currently -310.
"I think it'll be dangerous. Johns hits like a tank, but Matsumoto is the kind of fighter the UFC desperately needs right now."
LOSS vs Felipe Lima
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felipe Lima 0 31 of 137 22% 35 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:35
Miles Johns 0 55 of 134 41% 60 of 140 2 of 5 40% 1 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felipe Lima 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Miles Johns 0 20 of 48 41% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Felipe Lima 0 15 of 61 24% 18 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Miles Johns 0 24 of 58 41% 27 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
3 Felipe Lima 0 4 of 33 12% 5 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Miles Johns 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 31 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felipe Lima 31 of 137 22% 21 of 122 5 of 7 5 of 8 31 of 135 0 of 2 0 of 0
Miles Johns 55 of 134 41% 43 of 112 7 of 10 5 of 12 52 of 126 3 of 5 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felipe Lima 12 of 43 27% 9 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 2 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miles Johns 20 of 48 41% 13 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 9 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Felipe Lima 15 of 61 24% 9 of 54 3 of 3 3 of 4 15 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miles Johns 24 of 58 41% 21 of 52 2 of 4 1 of 2 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Felipe Lima 4 of 33 12% 3 of 29 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Miles Johns 11 of 28 39% 9 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns despite acknowledging Felipe Lima is more talented. He trusts Johns' veteran savvy and wrestling, but is hesitant because Johns has a history of abandoning wrestling to sit on right hands. He notes Lima slowed in his last fight and that Johns could win if he actually wrestles. He emphasizes this is a pick, not a bet, and would only consider betting if Johns is a big underdog.

No bet; would consider inside the distance/decision no action if odds are favorable.
"Miles Johns is actually going to be the pick here I'm going with the veteran Savvy and the wrestling in the back pocket but zero money at stake."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady picks Miles Johns as a big underdog, calling the line 'nonsense'. He thinks Johns is the better wrestler and can dictate where the fight goes, and notes Johns has elite defensive striking (69% defense). He believes Lima is overhyped and that his win over Naimov was aided by Naimov quitting. He expects a close fight and takes the plus money.

fight goes to distance
"I'm going to take the big dog here in Miles John's going to a very unpopular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Cody picks Felipe Lima, citing his well-rounded skills, excellent grappling, and striking. He notes that Miles Johns has a wrestling advantage but has struggled with cardio and was caught for PEDs. Cody believes Lima's volume and scrambling will win the fight, though he doesn't love the line.

"I got fipe Lima winning this fight I just don't necessarily love the line."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Felipe Lima

Connor also picks Lima, noting that Lima's game is built on the idea that he will bounce back from anything, and that Johns needs to convince opponents they can't tussle with him, which is hard against a confident young fighter like Lima. He acknowledges that Lima will get into trouble but thinks Johns' control is a veneer and that Lima's finishing ability gives him the edge.

"I don't think you can do that to a young absurdly confident fighter like Lima. So I think it'll still be dicey."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Daniel Vreeland picks Felipe Lima, contingent on him pushing a high pace. He notes Miles Johns fights at a low output and Lima must stay in his face and not give him time to rest. Vreeland believes Lima's grappling and volume can overwhelm Johns, who dislikes high-paced fights. He warns that if Lima fights at a low pace, Johns will win.

"I really think Lima's gonna come out here pushing insane Pace we know miles JNS does not like fighting at high paces and as a result I think that Lima is gonna win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Lima's more technical and aggressive striking approach, combined with defensive grappling, should allow him to land more damage and eke out a decision. However, the odds are considered too wide, and Miles Johns is a potential dog at +200, making this a hesitant pick.

Miles Johns underdog consideration at +200
"I believe the odds are a little bit too wide here but my prediction is still going to be on the Lima side as I believe his Tech more Technical and aggressive striking approach and defensive grappling will allow him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Paul picks Felipe Lima, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Johns has a path via wrestling but Lima's superior striking and grappling should prevail. Paul is not confident enough to bet heavily but sees Lima as the likely winner.

"I got fipe Lima winning this fight I just don't necessarily love the line."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

The MMA Guru picks Felipe Lima, citing his speed, dynamic kicking, and more diverse striking compared to Miles Johns, who he describes as a boxer with limited combinations. He notes that Johns is moving up to featherweight for the first time and may not have the size advantage. He also mentions Lima's youth (26) and the momentum of Brazilian prospects. He predicts Lima will finish Johns inside the distance.

finish inside the distance
"I think he's faster I think he kicks a lot better mil Johns is a boxer he wrestles a bit as well offensively here and there but he's really power punching on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Felipe Lima

Zane picks Lima but is torn. He notes that Lima is a confident, opportunistic fighter who never gives up, similar to early Brandon Moreno, while Miles Johns is a wrestle-boxer with a dated style but hits hard. Zane points out that Johns has faded in fights and his wins have asterisks, while Lima's willingness to engage and recover could overwhelm Johns. However, Lima's lack of control is a concern.

Johns opened at +232, now +204; Lima opened at -273, now -236. Zane says he likes the fight a lot.
"I think I'm inclined to take a Lima here because while I agree that Johns has been looking a lot more assured of his approach, there's still some asterisks on these performances."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 36 of 119 30% 36 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 50 of 96 52% 52 of 98 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 12 of 27 44% 12 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 7 of 15 46% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Miles Johns 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Miles Johns 0 14 of 51 27% 14 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 18 of 36 50% 19 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 36 of 119 30% 21 of 80 6 of 21 9 of 18 36 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 50 of 96 52% 37 of 82 6 of 7 7 of 7 50 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 12 of 27 44% 7 of 16 1 of 4 4 of 7 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 7 of 15 46% 3 of 10 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 10 of 41 24% 4 of 24 4 of 13 2 of 4 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 25 of 45 55% 19 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 14 of 51 27% 10 of 40 1 of 4 3 of 7 14 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 18 of 36 50% 15 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns, citing his youth, speed, and wrestling advantage. He notes Douglas is durable and a tough striker but is older and slowing down. He worries about Miles' cardio but believes his wrestling will be the difference. He mentions he has a moneyline bet on Miles.

Moneyline bet on Miles Johns
"I am still going Miles Johns here I do think he gets it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Cody picks Miles Johns, citing his improved cardio and wrestling under Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. He notes that Johns used to gas out but has shown better pacing in recent fights. Cody believes Johns can outwork Silva de Andrade by pressing him against the cage and using takedowns, especially since Silva de Andrade is 39 and cuts to 135, which may affect his durability. He expects a low-volume decision win for Johns.

decision prop is decent on both sides
"I'm going to go John's to take the decision... the decision prop is actually decent on both sides."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Vreeland has a love-hate relationship with Miles Johns, noting his low output and tendency to back himself to the fence. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade's experience and durability but leans with Johns due to his physicality, youth, and confidence. He expects a low-output fight and sees Johns as the more physical younger guy.

"I'm gonna lean with Miles John's here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Jacob picks Miles Johns but expects to be nervous during the fight. He recalls Miles gassing in the Cody Gibson fight and needing motivation. He thinks Douglas is a tough bowling ball and Miles may struggle with cardio again. He notes Miles should win but it will be close.

"I'm going Miles Johns he should be able to get it done but I mean if you have a bet on Miles Johns I bet in the middle of the second round you're going to be a little bit [__] …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Johns has evolved and matured, allowing him to execute a game plan to wear on de Andrade's gas tank. By slowing him down early and evading his power, Johns will grind out a decision using clinching, takedowns, footwork, and output.

"I do think that we're seeing an evolution and maturity in Miles John's game which will allow him to execute a game plan here to wear on the gas tank of Deandra"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Paul picks Douglas Silva de Andrade as a dog, noting that he bets him almost every fight because he is always the underdog. He highlights Silva de Andrade's durability and power, and believes that judges are not rewarding wrestling control as much these days. Paul thinks Silva de Andrade can land the bigger shots and win, despite his low volume.

found plus 117
"I bet I bet Douglas Silva de Andrade I found a plus 117 and he's my boy."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, questioning whether Miles Johns can KO him. He notes Johns couldn't KO Cody Gibson and relies too much on overhands. He thinks Silva de Andrade has better wins (Cody Stamann, Sergey Morozov) and will make reads on Johns' power shots. He also mentions Silva de Andrade's competitive fights with Lerone Murphy and Nate Maness.

"I'm GNA go with Douglas Silva Deandra was not impressed by Jon's performance against Cody Gibson"
WIN vs Cody Gibson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 25 of 79 31% 64 of 137 2 of 8 25% 0 1 6:29
Cody Gibson 0 18 of 62 29% 52 of 108 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 5 of 19 26% 14 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:15
Cody Gibson 0 4 of 22 18% 16 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Miles Johns 0 11 of 23 47% 25 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:54
Cody Gibson 0 2 of 8 25% 12 of 21 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:36
3 Miles Johns 0 9 of 37 24% 25 of 65 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:20
Cody Gibson 0 12 of 32 37% 24 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 25 of 79 31% 18 of 66 5 of 9 2 of 4 20 of 72 4 of 6 1 of 1
Cody Gibson 18 of 62 29% 9 of 39 4 of 17 5 of 6 16 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 5 of 19 26% 3 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 3 4 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 4 of 22 18% 3 of 15 0 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 18 3 of 4 1 of 1
Cody Gibson 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 9 of 37 24% 6 of 31 3 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 12 of 32 37% 6 of 19 3 of 10 3 of 3 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Gibson vs. Miles Johns
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johns (-148), Gibson (+124)

Round 1
Johns (13-2, 1 NC; 4-2, 1 NC UFC) was supposed to be coming into this fight with the struggling Gibson (19-9, 1-4 UFC) on a win streak, but a failed drug test after beating Dan Argueta erased the victory. In short order, this standard undercard bantamweight matchup turned to one with greater personal stakes with both. Referee Herb Dean will sort things out, watching over the two men that do not touch gloves. Gibson starts off swirling his hand around, and he walks into a thumping leg kick. Johns swarms into action with a clubbing right hand, and he backs off and circles to the side away from strikes that come his way. Johns ducks down to swat away a leg kick, and he dips down and eats a clean uppercut. Gibson flashes out several jabs and avoids a huge overhand right, and Johns shifts to the side to get away and reset. Gibson overloads on a right hand, and he follows Johns around and grabs hold of one of Johns’ legs to think about a takedown. Johns backs him off with body shots, and he resets and dodges the swinging punches coming his direction. Johns misses a right hook by a matter of centimeters, and Gibson ties him up against the fence and knees him in the dome. Johns scores an uppercut on the break, and Gibson chases after him and jumps away to dodge a right hand. Johns races forward, and his momentum tackles ā€œThe Renegadeā€ to the canvas. Johns resides in top position, and Gibson is immediately active with his guard, looking for a butterfly hook, a submission setup or just throwing strikes from off his back. Gibson keeps Johns from landing anything of merit, and he brings up his right leg for a rubber guard momentarily before Johns pushes it aside. Gibson tries to roll over in pursuit of an armbar, and Johns is wise to it as he stays flat on top of his opponent. Johns hammers down an elbow, and when he looks to pass, Gibson turns around to stand up with the wall at his side. Johns tries to drag him back down, and with sheer force of will, he tosses Gibson back down. Johns holds onto him while landing short but heavy right hands, as Gibson works his way up. Gibson ducks away and throws a big knee, and Johns nearly reenacts Fedor vs. Arlovski by blasting Gibson with a right hand that sends him flying. Johns points at him, and Gibson looks surprised but is still with it as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Gibson is the pressure fighter early, showing he has fully recovered from the concussive blow. He prods out a front kick and a few jabs, and Johns is well away from anything of note. Gibson drops down to grab a single, and Johns uppercuts him until he topples to the floor. Gibson grabs him from behind during a scramble, and Johns climbs back up while leaning against the cage. Gibson looks to trip or drag Johns down, but Johns escapes. Johns lands a powerful elbow that splits open a cut on Gibson’s cheek, and he crowds him and knocks him squirrely with another powerful uppercut. Johns continues to hammer his foe with uppercuts as Gibson shoots for a single, and Gibson manages to get the takedown despite absorbing the blows. Gibson follows a scrambling Johns until he takes his back, and he secures the body triangle. Gibson fishes for a choke, and Johns hand-fights and turns to flip Gibson over with a powerful reversal. Johns pins Gibson’s right arm with his knee and slugs him in the chops several times, and he keeps ā€œThe Renegadeā€ pinned to the floor while landing shots. Johns wraps up a guillotine with one arm and lets it go to pummel Gibson with left hands until Gibson explodes back to his feet. Johns uses his full weight in an effort to wrench Gibson down, and he breaks and scores two uppercuts. Gibson resets and flicks out a jab, and Johns drills him in the lead leg with a kick and cracks him with two right hands. Gibson gathers his thoughts and leaps forward with a flying knee that skims off the dome, and Johns immediately drops down to take Gibson down with a double when Gibson lands. Gibson scrambles back upright, and Johns leans on him to land short shots until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 3
The two bantamweights clap hands as they reach the final round, and Johns sticks his jab out immediately while Gibson comes after him. Johns clubs him with three right hands and backs off with a jab, and Gibson slaps a high kick off his raised guard. Johns grapples to get hold of a single, tripping Gibson up and driving him to the fence. Gibson keeps his balance but is pressed against the wall, and Johns squeezes on him tight. Gibson manages to fight his way out of the clinch, and Johns comes up short with an uppercut on the way out. Gibson ducks down and into a few more uppercuts from ā€œChapo,ā€ and he presses forward and watches a right hand slide off his cheek. They trade jabs, and change levels at the same time to no avail. Johns shoots for a single, pushing Gibson up against the wire, and he delivers a few knees to the thigh to keep busy. Dean asks for more work, and Johns connects with three clean shots that pound off Gibson’s head. Gibson breaks away, and he reaches out with a kick that is blocked. Johns rushes forward with a right hand as his lead leg is kicked, and Gibson fires off a body kick. When Gibson charges, Johns cracks him with an overhand right. Johns uses the power shot to frazzle Gibson just enough to change levels in pursuit of a single. Dean clasp for them to do more twice, and Gibson answers him by freaking away. They trade hands, and Johns doggedly goes after the single again. Lifting Gibson off the ground and slamming him down, Johns claims top position and fights off a kimura sweep. Gibson turns all the way over to stand up with less than 20 seconds left, and he walks into a right hand and pushes out a front kick. The fight ends with Johns landing one final right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns (30-27 Johns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns (30-27 Johns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns (30-27 Johns)

The Official Result
Miles Johns def. Cody Gibson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns but is hesitant because he doesn't trust Johns to wrestle consistently. He notes that Johns has the tools to dominate but often abandons wrestling for power punches. He considers a small bet or parlay with another sketchy fighter, but is not fully confident.

possible half unit bet or parlay
"Miles Johns is the better fighter in this matchup he is going to be the pick in this matchup because of that but I don't know if I can trust him to do what he needs to do here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Big Brady picks Cody Gibson, citing Gibson's volume, durability, and cardio advantage. He notes Miles Johns is on short notice and has questionable cardio and durability (both losses inside the distance). He expects Johns to have early success but Gibson to take over and finish him in the third round by knockout.

finish in third round
"I'll say miles JNS probably has some success early I just kind of feel like Cody Gibson's going to take over as the fight goes on uh win that second and then finish miles J's in the third round so …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Cody picks Gibson, citing his forward pressure and wrestling. He notes that Johns has cardio issues and was likely on steroids in his last win. Cody believes Gibson's volume and aggression will earn him rounds, especially if Johns fades. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"Ever so slightly I do give it to Cody Gibson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Miles Johns, citing his athleticism and one-punch power. He acknowledges Gibson's high output but worries about Gibson's durability and tendency to slow down. He thinks Johns can land a big shot or grind out a win, but he is not confident enough to bet the favorite.

"I kind of lean towards miles but I am not gonna bet chalk on Miles John's against an output machine"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Johns is quick, explosive, and has multiple ways to win: wrestling, power, movement. He slows down late but has improved his cardio. Gibson is a veteran boxer with good footwork but can be taken down and ground out. Johns' speed and variety should be too much, but confidence is not high. Expect a decision win for Johns.

Johns by decision
"I don't have Uber confidence in John's here but I think that he can do enough in terms of putting together a body of work to win on the scorecards which is why I'm going to go by with him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Paul agrees, emphasizing that takedowns may not be scored highly by judges, as seen in recent fights. He thinks Gibson's volume will be the deciding factor. Paul also notes Gibson's toughness and recent Fight of the Night bonus.

"Wrestling doesn't matter anymore bro it's Cody Gibson for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

The MMA Guru picks Cody Gibson as an underdog over Miles Johns. He believes Johns is breakable under pressure and that Gibson's size and pace will break him. He notes Gibson's height and reach advantage, and thinks knees in the clinch will be key. He predicts a third-round TKO for Gibson.

third round TKO
"Cody Gibson is who I'm picking here over miles Johns... third round TKO for Cody Gibson"
LOSS vs Dan Argueta
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Argueta 0 33 of 85 38% 38 of 95 2 of 6 33% 2 0 3:55
Miles Johns 0 43 of 92 46% 52 of 104 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Argueta 0 3 of 14 21% 8 of 21 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:14
Miles Johns 0 8 of 21 38% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
2 Dan Argueta 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Miles Johns 0 14 of 28 50% 23 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:50
3 Dan Argueta 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:20
Miles Johns 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Argueta 33 of 85 38% 20 of 67 8 of 12 5 of 6 22 of 70 5 of 8 6 of 7
Miles Johns 43 of 92 46% 32 of 77 5 of 9 6 of 6 40 of 84 2 of 3 1 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Argueta 3 of 14 21% 1 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 8 of 21 38% 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Dan Argueta 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 24 5 of 7 1 of 1
Miles Johns 14 of 28 50% 10 of 22 3 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Dan Argueta 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 33 0 of 0 5 of 6
Miles Johns 21 of 43 48% 14 of 34 2 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo trusts Argueta's wrestling-first game plan and believes Johns' takedown defense is inflated because he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. He expects Argueta to stay on the hips and outwork Johns. Pretty confident pick.

"Dan Argueta pretty confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady picks Miles Johns as an underdog, calling the fight close and likely to go to decision. He likes Johns' defensive wrestling and striking defense, and notes Johns has power and out-lands opponents despite low volume. He thinks Argueta may have wrestling success later as Johns slows down, but believes Johns can win at least two rounds. He prefers the plus money.

"give me miles Jones for a decision but it's gonna be a close fight nonetheless"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Cody picks Dan Argueta, impressed by his toughness and grappling. He notes Argueta's strong wrestling and submission threats, while Johns has cardio issues and slows down. He believes Argueta's pressure and pace will overwhelm Johns in later rounds.

"I got our Guetta I don't mind the pre-line money line I got a feeling that if he gets off to a slow start and maybe loses that first round you can get an even better price tag on him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Daniel picks Argueta but without strong conviction. He thinks Johns has been a letdown in the UFC, with low output and a tendency to break under pressure. He questions whether Argueta can push the pace needed to break Johns, but believes Argueta's hunger and takedown volume might be enough. He acknowledges the line is close to accurate and is not betting it.

"I'm gonna go with arua as a pick so one of us is right here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Lucrative James likes Miles Johns at the line, calling it an overcorrection. He thinks Johns can defend takedowns early and has power on the feet. He notes Johns is a good wrestler himself and could get takedowns. He sees the fight as close, possibly a pick'em, but favors Johns.

"I like Miles Johns at the line anyway."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The host picks Argueta at minus 170, calling it a gift line. He praises Argueta's wrestling, cardio, and pressure, expecting him to wear on Johns and pull away late. He notes Johns' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Argueta is superior in grappling and pace. He predicts a decision win for Argueta after a close first round.

"minus 170 in my opinion is a gift of a line here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Paul picks Argueta but prefers live betting. He worries about Argueta's low volume and Johns's 92% takedown defense. He thinks Johns may win early rounds but Argueta's cardio advantage could take over. He is interested in Argueta by submission or round 3 prop.

Interested in Argueta round 3 prop at +800.
"I'm gonna pick our geta but pre-flop not very interested in the minus 175... I think it's a better spot like if he goes out there takes down miles John's immediately off the Hop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The MMA Guru picks Dan Argueta, criticizing Miles Johns' weak strength of schedule, noting his opponents include Kevin Natividad and Anderson dos Santos. He praises Argueta's training at Jackson Wink MMA, his judo background, and his toughness in taking Damon Jackson to a close decision. He believes Argueta is a gradually improving fighter with good hips and strength, while Johns has plateaued. He expects Argueta to win via grappling and pressure.

"I'm probably gonna go with our getter here I've actually been quite surprised by our getter's career because I didn't think he was going to be much of anything before he joined the UFC..."
WIN vs Vince Morales
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 39 of 131 29% 47 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Vince Morales 0 38 of 103 36% 45 of 110 1 of 12 8% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Miles Johns 0 11 of 43 25% 13 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Vince Morales 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
3 Miles Johns 0 20 of 56 35% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Vince Morales 0 15 of 45 33% 22 of 52 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 39 of 131 29% 28 of 112 9 of 15 2 of 4 36 of 127 3 of 4 0 of 0
Vince Morales 38 of 103 36% 28 of 92 4 of 5 6 of 6 38 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 8 of 32 25% 6 of 27 1 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 10 of 26 38% 7 of 23 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 11 of 43 25% 6 of 35 5 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
Vince Morales 13 of 32 40% 8 of 27 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 20 of 56 35% 16 of 50 3 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Vince Morales 15 of 45 33% 13 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Miles Johns vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johns (-165), Morales (+140)

Round 1
The bantamweight ride continues with two more heavy-handed and fast-paced competitors, as Morales (11-6, 3-4 UFC) throws down with recent Glory MMA trainee Johns (12-2, 3-2 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni steels himself for the action, whether it lasts 15 seconds or 15 minutes, and the two would rather battle it out than touch gloves – the bad blood appears to be high, as the commission had to separate them ahead of the introductions. Now that the fight is on, the two 135ers do not engage, with over 30 seconds elapsing before either man throws a single strike. Johns reaches out with a straight left hand and a leg kick, and Morales responds with a left hab. Johns pushes him back with a jab of his own, and he doubles up on it while Morales is measuring his range. The two collide with heavy blows at the same time, but neither man budges an inch. The inactivity continues as they are not willing to commit on their strikes, and any power punches go well away from their intended targets. Johns steps in with a quick calf kick, and Morales takes a funny step back after absorbing it. A quick jab from ā€œChapoā€ makes Morales backpedal, but it is one-and-done until Morales gets his gumption to toss out a single low kick. Johns loads up on a right hand, but Morales ducks it in the nick of time. Johns pokes out with a jab, and he slides back as Morales whips a left hook towards him. Morales attempts to get his own jab doing, snapping it out a few times and ducking when Johns throws a right hand that would have knocked down a building. Johns crashes forward suddenly to snag a single, and Morales hops back and yanks his leg out. Johns loads up on another massive overhand right, and he does not find the target with that but gets off a clean left hook. The activity spikes, relative to the other action, when Johns scores a few left hands before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Johns lords over the center of the cage when the round begins, and neither man is willing to throw anything effective. The two jab at one another, and Johns’ mouth begins to bleed. Johns thumps the lead calf with his shin, and he pushes out a jab that makes Morales blink a few times. As Morales marches forward, he throws hard, and Johns dips down and grabs hold of a single. ā€œVandettaā€ wriggles the leg out and races away, resetting in the middle of the Octagon and preparing to throw. As Morales comes forward, he walks into one of Johns’ outstretched fingers, and Tognoni recognizes this and pauses the bout. To give Morales additional time to recover, Tognoni calls in the doctor to check on the condition of Morales’ eye, and Morales explains that he is good to go and holds no ill will towards his opponent. After about 90 seconds, the two get back to business, the jabs come from the fighters at the restart. Johns walks his man down and swats out several jabs, and he releases several booming hooks that all miss one after the other. Morales circles out and into a low kick, but he shows no concern and reaches out with a front kick to the sternum. Morales catches a low kick and swipes out with a right hand, but Johns replies with a swiping right hand on the way out. Johns blocks a high kick and eats a jab, and he charges with a small barrage that bounce off the guard. Johns glances a right hand over the top, and he finds himself eating a kick to the belly for his work. ā€œChapoā€ loads up on another right hand, following it with a high crotch single-leg but not succeeding with it. Morales defends with elbows to the side of the head, and this distracts him enough for Johns to elevate him and slam him down one second before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
Jabs are exchanged to start off the final round of what has been a tepid and tentative affair. The striking accuracy totals of both bantamweights are likely extremely low, especially in the significant strike category. Johns ducks in for a single without setting it up, and he lifts Morales’ left leg up in the air and chases him from one side of the cage to the other. Morales trips to the floor, and he bounces right back up without a care in the world. On the reset, Morales picks and pokes with a jab, and Johns sits down with a calf kick that lands with an audible thud. Morales replies with a slapping body kick, but the bantamweights are largely targeting one another with single strikes. Johns misses with a right hand, Morales is similarly inaccurate, and they return to their jab-centric approach. Morales chains a jab into a right hand, and Johns gives chase and swarms him with winging but missing punches. ā€œChapoā€ attempts another single, and this is nowhere near secure as Morales springs away. Morales makes him pay for this attempt with another body kick, and Johns blitzes him with a single-leg takedown effort. ā€œVandettaā€ keeps himself from hitting the mat once more, and he plants a front kick on the torso while Johns swings at air. They alternate with jabs, and the follow-up strikes from both fighters miss the mark again and again. Johns fires off huge overhand rights, but the evasiveness of Morales keeps him safe from harm. Johns attacks with one final takedown, and he bullies Morales to the wall and holds him there until the fight comes to a merciful end. The judges will have their hands full evaluating this lackluster contest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Miles Johns def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 1:38 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
John CastaƱeda 0 34 of 85 40% 34 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 1 58 of 147 39% 68 of 159 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 John CastaƱeda 0 11 of 27 40% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 0 16 of 48 33% 16 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 John CastaƱeda 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 0 25 of 68 36% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
3 John CastaƱeda 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 1 17 of 31 54% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
John CastaƱeda 34 of 85 40% 27 of 76 6 of 8 1 of 1 33 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Miles Johns 58 of 147 39% 40 of 113 6 of 11 12 of 23 47 of 129 7 of 11 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 John CastaƱeda 11 of 27 40% 8 of 24 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miles Johns 16 of 48 33% 7 of 30 2 of 3 7 of 15 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 John CastaƱeda 17 of 44 38% 13 of 38 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 25 of 68 36% 19 of 56 2 of 5 4 of 7 21 of 62 2 of 4 2 of 2
3 John CastaƱeda 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 17 of 31 54% 14 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 19 5 of 7 2 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
John Castaneda vs. Miles Johns

Round 1
The prelims conclude with a bantamweight battle as Fortis MMA standout Johns (12-1, 3-1 UFC) takes on longtime Combate Americas vet Castaneda (18-5, 1-1 UFC). Without wasting any more time, the fighters meet in the middle and touch gloves as referee Mike Beltran keeps a watchful eye. Castaneda swings a head kick that misses the mark by a wide margin, and Johns is holding on to a healthy distance as he circles against the outer edge of the cage. Johns blocks a high kick, but he does not throw much more back than a jab. Castaneda continues throwing his kick up on high, and it does not succeed again. Johns remains elusive but is not swinging much of his own, and he suddenly bursts forward with a left-right combo. Castaneda walks forward and gets his head snapped back with a right hook, and Johns takes a step back to avoid a possible counter. ā€œSexi Mexiā€ has a kick slap off Johns’ leg, and Johns is waiting with an overhand right counter that brushes off his chin. Castaneda reaches out with his fingers outstretched, and one grazes the eyeball of his opponent to force a brief stoppage. Johns clears his eye and they resume, as Castaneda gives chase but cannot land much on his defensive foe. Johns blocks a head kick and absorbs a low kick, and he misses with a left hand. The accuracy rate and volume this round are quite low, as both men are largely content to swing with single strikes. Johns looks for an uppercut counter, and he bumps into Castaneda’s chin but does not land flush. A right hand from ā€œChapoā€ drills into Castaneda’s jaw, but he wears it well and does not take much more than a step back. Castaneda connects with a loud body kick, stepping back just in the nick of time to avoid a looping punch from the Fortis MMA fighter. They feint and fake at one another, and three head kicks from Castaneda are all blocked right before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
The second frame begins with a glove touch, and Castaneda opens up with a kick that pounds square into Johns’ cup. Johns tries to say he is good to go, but Beltran gives him more time to recover. When they begin again, Johns is there with a big right hand. Castaneda kicks low again but this one is legal, and Johns suddenly burst into activity as he swarms his man with a barrage of punches. Castaneda shakes them off, but Johns is fired up and throwing with bad intentions. ā€œSexi Mexiā€ blocks and dodges many of the strikes, and he marches Johns down and gets punched in the stomach. Johns catches a head kick right on the side of his head, and he shakes it off somehow and tries to suck Castaneda into a brawl. Johns sets a trap to lure Castaneda in and bomb him with hooks, but Castaneda does not fall for it and keeps pressuring Johns around the cage. Castaneda lands a right hand on the side of the head, and Johns’ face looks far less confident than the previous round. Castaneda keeps bullying Johns back, and even though not all of his strikes land, he is constantly forcing the Fortis fighter to fight off his back foot. Castaneda clips Johns with a right hand, and Johns staggers back and may have remained upright thanks to the fence behind him. Castaneda charges at him, lands again and pushes Johns to the ground. Castaneda willingly climbs into the guard, slowly working with ground-and-pound all while he passes to half guard. Johns turns to his side and gets elbowed on the side of the head, and with a surge of adrenaline, he kicks Castaneda off of him and powers back to his feet. Johns loads up on a big right hand, but his target is several feet away. Castaneda wades into the danger zone to let loose with a head kick, and several more punches as Johns is predominantly aiming with a home-run shot. The second round ends with Johns winging a right hand that clatters off the guard.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda

Round 3
Castaneda opens the final round the aggressor, forcing Johns to back away as he avoids punches that loom. Castaneda scores a low kick, and he ducks a huge punch from Johns. Castaneda dodges and weaves, cracking Johns with a right hand and staying safe from the reckless, wide hooks coming back at him. Johns wobbles back, and Castaneda lays into him with a knee and a body shot. Johns throws a punch so hard he spins around, and Castaneda charges. With ā€œSexi Mexiā€ laying into his tired foe with a couple punches, a powerful knee and an uppercut, Johns’ legs give way beneath him and he falls to the floor.
Castaneda pounces, landing in three-quarter mount while he hooks up an arm-triangle choke. Johns defends off his back by hooking his arm beneath his knee, but his arm grows weary and he retracts it. ā€œChapoā€ considers tapping out, but he goes out on his shield, with the arm-triangle choke sending him off to dreamland.
Beltran notices that Johns’ is fast asleep and intervenes, and Castaneda is now the first fighter to ever submit Johns.

The Official Result
John Castaneda def. Miles Johns R3 1:38 via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns for his power and wrestling. He notes Johns has heavy hands and explosive takedowns, coming off two knockout wins. CastaƱeda is a fun, high-pressure fighter with fast hands and takedowns but lacks power. Angelo believes Johns' power and wrestling will match CastaƱeda's pressure and secure the win.

"i like miles john's here this entire card is stacked with fun fights and this is absolutely another one i like john's power and his wrestling to match castaneda's forward pressure and toughness this should be a fun one but …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
John CastaƱeda

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Johns' volume is low and he can be edged out. He thinks CastaƱeda is a live underdog because Johns' style leaves room for an upset. He is leaning CastaƱeda but not ready to pull the trigger fully.

"i'm leaning with you i've got uh i'm going with castaneda as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Levi picks Miles Johns, citing his athleticism, speed, and higher pace. He notes Johns has five-round experience and has beaten tough guys like Adrian Yanez. Levi thinks CastaƱeda is a step behind athletically and often fights on his back foot. He expects Johns to push the pace and win a decision, though he acknowledges CastaƱeda's technical skills and the possibility of an upset.

"give me miles john's to come out here and win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Lock of the Night picks Johns, citing his wrestling advantage and improving striking. He notes that CastaƱeda is the better technical striker but Johns can initiate takedowns and control the fight. He likes Johns by decision at +130.

Johns by decision +130
"i think the ace in the pocket here for john's has got to be the takedowns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
John CastaƱeda

Paul sees CastaƱeda as a live underdog. He notes that Miles Johns has low volume and can make mental mistakes. He thinks CastaƱeda has decent power and cardio, and if Johns makes a mistake, CastaƱeda can capitalize. He is leaning towards CastaƱeda but not fully committed.

"i am looking at john castaneda as a live underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miles Johns

The MMA Guru picks Miles Johns, citing his momentum and power advantage. He references Johns' wins over Anderson dos Santos and Kevin Natividad, and notes CastaƱeda was schooled by Nathaniel Wood. He predicts a 29-28 decision with Johns winning the first two rounds due to power, and CastaƱeda possibly taking the third.

decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna go with miles john's here 29-28 i'm gonna go miles john's wins the first two rounds here"
Expert Picks (3)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Levi picks Miles Johns by unanimous decision. He believes Johns' wrestling and power will make Bautista hesitant to throw volume. He expects Johns to mix takedowns with heavy shots and control the fight, capitalizing on Bautista's takedown defense issues.

"I think miles Johns is gonna come out here and win a unanimous decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Mario Bautista as a dog, citing his reach advantage, body kicks, and cardio. He believes Bautista can survive the first round and then outpoint Miles Johns in the later rounds, as Johns may fade. He notes that Bautista has good takedown defense and can get back up if taken down.

Bautista by decision
"I like the dog here again another dog play for you guys is Mario Bautista personally I'm gonna be choosing between Jonathan Martinez and Moz John's at least as a dog there might be another dog that I boo I see later in the card but those are definitely one …"
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The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Miles Johns

The MMA Guru picks Miles Johns because he is undefeated and has beaten decent guys, including Cole Smith. He expects a decision win, possibly a slow fight if Johns gets his way.

decision win
"I just feel like my old John's is gonna get the job done over Mario Bautista I like the fact he's undefeated he's beaten some decent guys as well"