UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020 · Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 32
Height 5' 7"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mario Bautista
5.3 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.98 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.91 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Miles Johns
3.36 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.99 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
1.22 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Mario Bautista - Fight History
SCHED vs Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Submission R2 4:46 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 15 of 27 55% 49 of 63 5 of 7 71% 1 0 5:47
Vinicius Oliveira 0 12 of 21 57% 18 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 3 of 9 33% 22 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Mario Bautista 0 12 of 18 66% 27 of 34 4 of 5 80% 1 0 3:29
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 15 of 27 55% 10 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 12 0 of 2 9 of 13
Vinicius Oliveira 12 of 21 57% 3 of 10 3 of 5 6 of 6 9 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 3 of 9 33% 1 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 12 of 18 66% 9 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 2 7 of 8
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 3 of 9 0 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-185); Oliveira (+155)

Round 1
All eyes are on this bantamweight main attraction, with the UFC’s No. 9 Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) putting his superior number on the line against the surging 11th-ranked Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC). Whether a top-10 fighter is cemented or elevated, referee Herb Dean is on top of everything. He brings them together to the center of the cage, where the fighters calmly touch gloves.
Oliveira starts off with a front kick up the middle, only to be met with a body kick flying back. Oliveira chops at the front leg, working the calf a few times and dropping his hands to motion to someone outside the cage. Bautista swings and misses, allowing Oliveira to grab hold of him and clinch. Oh no. Here we go again. Oliveira presses heavily on the MMA Lab representative, thwarting Bautista’s initial escape attempts. Bautista manages to free himself from the grasp, but Oliveira is quick to re-engage with an attempt. They fall to the floor during a grappling exchange, and Oliveira is quicker on his feet and isolates Bautista’s right leg for a single. Bautista keeps his balance and slaps Oliveira upside the head a few times, and they spin around one another as Bautista follows through to drag the fight down and establish top control.
Oliveira hits his back and hunts for a leglock, and Bautista defends by twisting all the way around and climbing into half guard. The action slows to a crawl as Bautista smothers on top, with Oliveira locking him down with his arms hooked around his foe’s. When Bautista tries to posture up, Oliveira kicks him off. Bautista just misses with a leaping right hand, and he has an axe kick blocked. Bautista tries to move himself back into the guard, and Oliveira’s upkicks keep him honest. Bautista manages to score with a few punches to the body, but otherwise he stays out of harm until the buzzer.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista

Round 2
Bautista starts the round aggressively, taking the fight to the ground early. Oliveira climbs back up thanks in part to snagging his fingers in the fence, and he is admonished for it and hurled back down to the mat by the American. A mat return soon follows when Oliveira scoots upright. Bautista cannot keep him down, and when he backs off to find an angle back in, he walks into a left hand but still scores a right. Oliveira appears lackadaisical and sloppy, his hands by his waist as he prepares to defend another takedown shot. Oliveira lunges behind an inaccurate right, and Bautista corners him against the cage and goes to take him down.
Oliveira manages to get him down instead by catching a kick, only for Bautista to reverse him and wind up in the position the ended the previous round. The Brazilian’s upkicks are less hostile than before, so Bautista is able to get into his guard and transition fairly quickly to half guard. Oliveira still slowly manages to frame off the chest, recovering back to the full guard and closing it. Bautista opens it up with a few elbows, slashing them down and pushing through to half guard, the side and eventually a crucifix. Bautista jams down a number of elbows and thumping punches, and he switches things up with a sudden, unexpected kimura.
He cranks that submission in order to brilliantly take the back of his adversary, and he slips both hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. The fight went from zero to 60 in a hurry, and Oliveira is in big, big trouble. After barely a second or two, Oliveira realizes his goose is cooked and frantically taps out before he goes out.
Just like that, Bautista has notched his first stoppage since 2023 and rebounds from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a huge way. The victor lauds coach John Crouch for his grappling and jitz training to be able to pull off that thrilling grappling sequence that is best shown in slow-motion. The MMA Lab rep calls for a rematch with Cory Sandhagen when on the microphone, and that is one worth watching that could easily headline a Fight Night card. If that transpires, sign us up. Also, Sherdog will be in the building at UFC Houston in two weeks, so be sure to tune into our extra live coverage throughout the week. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Vinicius Oliveira R2 4:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.

"Mario Batista is going to be the pick. I think Mario can go dog for dog with Venicious and he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.

by third round submission
"I'm going to take Mario Batista to win this fight. I'm going to say he wins this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.

"I think I'm going to go the opposite end on Venicius Olivera... this guy's about as big as 135 pounds as you're possibly going to get."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.

Same odds discussion as Zane.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.

under 4.5 rounds, Mario Bautista wins in round 4 or 5
"My prediction will be Mario Batista to get this one done in the championship rounds inside the distance, probably submission for the first time in Venicious Olivivera's career."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.

inside the distance
"So, give me Maru Bautista inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes the distance
"My concerns for Olive Vera here, obviously he's had quite the run... I do have concerns about his gas tank in a five round fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.

decision 4 rounds to 1
"I think he'll win a decision, five four rounds to one. A four rounds to one decision win for Mario Bautista."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.

Bautista opened at -140, currently -160; Oliveira opened at +120, currently +140. Zane thinks the line is fair and could go to -200.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 32 of 54 59% 81 of 105 11 of 14 78% 0 0 10:46
Mario Bautista 1 20 of 54 37% 33 of 67 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 6 83% 32 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:37
Mario Bautista 0 1 of 1 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Mario Bautista 1 9 of 28 32% 14 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 27 55% 20 of 32 7 of 9 77% 0 0 3:07
Mario Bautista 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 32 of 54 59% 24 of 44 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 44 2 of 2 7 of 8
Mario Bautista 20 of 54 37% 6 of 37 11 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 50 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 6
Mario Bautista 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 10 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mario Bautista 9 of 28 32% 3 of 19 4 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 15 of 27 55% 9 of 20 4 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Mario Bautista 10 of 25 40% 3 of 18 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Minus 420, he'll probably look it.
"Umar's going to be the pick. I don't think Mario's going to get away with that random forward or cage control pressure. ... It's three rounds, Umar wins this fight. Minus 420, he'll probably look it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Umar by second round submission
"I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to take down Bautista and finish him here on the mat. Give me Umar Nurmagomedov to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

"I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

"So picking new, uh, Nirmagamad off, but that, you know, VOC should be recognizing stuff like this from what it is, uh, Umar is a huge favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

wins by decision
"I'm going to go Umar Nurmagomedov to win this decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission
"I think it's a 3027 or a submission rear naked choke win from Uma. I think it's a confident win here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

small shot on Bautista for some people
"I don't mind a small shot on Bautista for some people, but as an official prediction, I'm going to go Nurmagamedov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

"I don't love the line. I don't love the line. But I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for more than 2.5 total rounds
"I've got Umar dragging him down against the cage, knee to the thigh, one hook in, maybe gets the back at the end of one of the rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.

Umar by decision or submission
"In three rounds, I really do just have to pick Umar. Whether it's Batista taking time to cool down or taking time to heat up. I think either way, it spells disaster for Batista."
CANCEL vs Marlon Vera
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)

This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.

"Mario was supposed to fight Cheeto Vera, but Cheeto dropped."
WIN vs Patchy Mix
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 173 of 302 57% 173 of 302 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 122 of 304 40% 122 of 304 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 43 of 91 47% 43 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 36 of 74 48% 36 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 103 63% 65 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 59 of 111 53% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 108 60% 65 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 27 of 119 22% 27 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 173 of 302 57% 96 of 216 58 of 66 19 of 20 172 of 301 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 122 of 304 40% 92 of 265 14 of 22 16 of 17 118 of 299 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 43 of 91 47% 18 of 60 18 of 24 7 of 7 43 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 36 of 74 48% 22 of 58 5 of 7 9 of 9 35 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 65 of 103 63% 42 of 78 20 of 21 3 of 4 64 of 102 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 59 of 111 53% 49 of 96 5 of 9 5 of 6 56 of 108 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 65 of 108 60% 36 of 78 20 of 21 9 of 9 65 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 27 of 119 22% 21 of 111 4 of 6 2 of 2 27 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.

"I am going to pick Patchy though. ... Josh's confidence in Patchy and how good he is and how he's going to dominate here is pretty contagious."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.

Mix by submission in round 2
"I think Patchy gets Batista down here. And once he gets him down, I think he's staying there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Connor thinks the odds are fair.
"I think I'm going to pick Patchy Mix."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.

"I think that we're going to see Bautista shut down the grappling game of Mitch or Mix and then eventually outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker and from there he'll be able to put …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.

Finish prediction: first or second round submission (guillotine or anaconda). Mentions a $10K bonus for a brutal finish.
"I've got Patchy Mix finishing Mario Batista and there's 10K on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Zane thinks the odds are close and reasonable.
"I got to pick Mario Batista here."
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
WIN vs Ricky Simón
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 90 of 174 51% 108 of 192 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 79 of 137 57% 102 of 161 2 of 10 20% 1 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 29 of 48 60% 38 of 57 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:28
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 19 of 25 76% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
2 Mario Bautista 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 32 of 67 47% 34 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 52 40% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 28 of 45 62% 41 of 59 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 90 of 174 51% 48 of 123 22 of 30 20 of 21 52 of 129 37 of 42 1 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 79 of 137 57% 48 of 103 21 of 22 10 of 12 51 of 101 24 of 30 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 29 of 48 60% 11 of 27 11 of 14 7 of 7 13 of 28 15 of 18 1 of 2
Da'Mon Blackshear 19 of 25 76% 11 of 17 3 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 40 of 74 54% 25 of 54 7 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 56 17 of 18 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 32 of 67 47% 22 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 53 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 21 of 52 40% 12 of 42 4 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 45 5 of 6 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 28 of 45 62% 15 of 31 10 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 30 7 of 9 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

win by KO, round 1
"I just see Mario Batista knocking him out just touching the chin at some point... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

over on fight duration; Bautista by decision
"I still gotta take Batista again I just think he is the better Fighter the what ifs of what if this thing gets extended well listen I'm sure he was ready for that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Dog or pass; Bautista by decision
"I'm just going to slightly lean towards Bautista... I think the pace of Bautista is going to kind of pull him away in the second and third rounds and kind of get him this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.

"I'm picking Batista to win and I think Batista probably gets it done by decision"
Miles Johns - Fight History
LOSS vs Daniel Marcos
Submission R2 4:23 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 28 of 54 51% 33 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:34
Daniel Marcos 0 27 of 47 57% 42 of 69 3 of 4 75% 1 0 3:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 8 of 20 40% 13 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Daniel Marcos 0 12 of 21 57% 25 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
2 Miles Johns 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Daniel Marcos 0 15 of 26 57% 17 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 28 of 54 51% 21 of 45 3 of 5 4 of 4 28 of 49 0 of 5 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 27 of 47 57% 15 of 33 8 of 10 4 of 4 14 of 34 13 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 8 of 20 40% 4 of 16 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 12 of 21 57% 5 of 13 5 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 12 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 20 of 34 58% 17 of 29 2 of 4 1 of 1 20 of 32 0 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Marcos 15 of 26 57% 10 of 20 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

Angelo picks Daniel Marcos because of his superior cardio and cleaner striking. He notes that Miles Johns will come out hot and win the first round, but will fade as the fight goes on, allowing Marcos to take over. He also mentions a potential bet on Miles Johns plus 3.5 rounds, as Johns is likely to win one round.

Miles Johns plus 3.5 rounds (spread bet)
"Daniel's probably the cleaner overall striker. Miles has more power. As long as Daniel avoids the haymakers, I'm expecting him to win here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady sees this as a close fight, noting that Daniel Marcos has a nice record but he thought Marcos lost the Davey Grant fight. He mentions Miles Johns has a wrestling background and surprisingly good cardio lately, while Marcos has slowed down in past fights. He favors Marcos' distance striking but thinks Johns has more power and the fight goes to a split decision, leaning toward Johns due to the corrupt judges.

split decision
"I'm going to leave Miles John's here in a very close fight, but I think this fight has split decision written all over it."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Cody picks Johns as a dog, citing his improved performance against Matsumoto and Marcos' inconsistency. He thinks Johns' wrestling and volume can earn him a decision.

"Give me dog money here on Miles Johns."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not provide a clear pick for this fight. He discusses Adrian Yanez vs Christian Quinones instead, which is not on the card. He mentions Miles Johns and Daniel Marcos only in passing, but does not give a prediction.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The host believes Marcos has a better all-around game and will pick Johns apart from distance, especially by chewing away at the lead leg. This should slow Johns down and allow Marcos to win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Marcos will showcase a better all-around game, picking apart Jon's from distance and really chewing away at that lead leg."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Paul leans Johns but is passing due to uncertainty. He notes both fighters' inconsistency and the short-notice changes, but likes Johns at plus money.

"I'm going to say Dogger Pass, and I'm going to take Johns as the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Marcos

The Guru picks Daniel Marcos over Miles Johns. He notes that Marcos has been competitive with top bantamweights like Davy Grant and Montel Jackson, while Johns is on a two-fight losing streak. He highlights Marcos's nasty knees up the middle as a key factor against the stationary Johns. He predicts a TKO finish, as Johns doesn't move enough to avoid Marcos's pressure.

"I'm going to take Daniel Marcos to win this fight via TKO."
LOSS vs Jean Matsumoto
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 83 of 184 45% 89 of 191 5 of 8 62% 0 0 3:12
Jean Matsumoto 0 95 of 233 40% 109 of 249 0 of 3 0% 2 1 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 22 of 42 52% 23 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Jean Matsumoto 0 16 of 49 32% 20 of 54 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:22
2 Miles Johns 0 34 of 67 50% 35 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:26
Jean Matsumoto 0 35 of 84 41% 39 of 89 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:27
3 Miles Johns 0 27 of 75 36% 31 of 80 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:04
Jean Matsumoto 0 44 of 100 44% 50 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 83 of 184 45% 70 of 170 12 of 13 1 of 1 78 of 175 5 of 8 0 of 1
Jean Matsumoto 95 of 233 40% 49 of 160 27 of 38 19 of 35 87 of 224 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 22 of 42 52% 17 of 37 5 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 1
Jean Matsumoto 16 of 49 32% 8 of 29 5 of 9 3 of 11 15 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 34 of 67 50% 31 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0 31 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 35 of 84 41% 15 of 55 14 of 19 6 of 10 33 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 27 of 75 36% 22 of 70 4 of 4 1 of 1 27 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jean Matsumoto 44 of 100 44% 26 of 76 8 of 10 10 of 14 39 of 94 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns as a dog, noting he is a strong wrestler with heavy hands and explosive speed. He thinks Matsumoto gets hit a lot and cuts easily, and in Las Vegas damage matters. Angelo likes the plus money on Johns and may bet the spread (+3.5) instead of the moneyline.

Considering betting Miles Johns +3.5 spread.
"I like the dog here. I'm going to pick Miles John's at two to one almost three to one for Gene Matsimoto."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto, criticizing Miles Johns for not using his wrestling and having low volume. He believes Matsumoto's higher volume and ability to mix in takedowns will be key. Brady expects Matsumoto to win by decision, though he notes the fight is not exciting.

"I like Matsumoto here. I'll take Matsumoto to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Connor picks Matsumoto, describing him as a brute who sits down on his punches and forces opponents to prove they can handle his power. He notes that Johns struggles when opponents stay in his face and keep up the pace, as seen against Felipe Lima. Connor believes Matsumoto's pressure, boxing, and ability to cut off the cage will overwhelm Johns, though he acknowledges Johns hits hard and could land a big shot.

Odds mentioned: Johns opened +190, currently +260; Matsumoto opened -225, currently -310.
"I think that Matsumoto was just a little bit more on that Felipe Lima side of things."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The host is a big fan of Matsumoto and thinks he can replicate what Philippe Lima did to Miles Johns. He expects Matsumoto to use a Muay Thai heavy approach, mix in takedowns, and chip away at Johns' lead leg, eventually winning on the scorecards.

"I think he can replicate what Philippe Lima was able to do to Miles John's last time around. utilize his Muay Thai heavy approach, maybe mix in some takedowns, but I think for the most part, Matsumoto will chip away …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

The MMA Guru picks Jean Matsumoto, noting he arguably beat Rob Font and has multiple paths to victory. He criticizes Miles Johns as flat-footed and coiled up, which will allow Matsumoto to mix in grappling and striking. He predicts a decision win for Matsumoto, possibly 30-27.

"I've got to go with Gene Matsamuto. He arguably beat Rob Font."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jean Matsumoto

Zane picks Matsumoto, highlighting his fast hands, good mobility, and technical boxing. He notes that Johns is a wrestle-boxer who needs to get takedowns to succeed, but Matsumoto's pressure and power will make that difficult. Zane compares Matsumoto to a bantamweight Danny Yay or Josh Emmett, a reliable gatekeeper who is always dangerous.

Odds mentioned: Johns opened +190, currently +260; Matsumoto opened -225, currently -310.
"I think it'll be dangerous. Johns hits like a tank, but Matsumoto is the kind of fighter the UFC desperately needs right now."
LOSS vs Felipe Lima
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felipe Lima 0 31 of 137 22% 35 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:35
Miles Johns 0 55 of 134 41% 60 of 140 2 of 5 40% 1 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felipe Lima 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Miles Johns 0 20 of 48 41% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Felipe Lima 0 15 of 61 24% 18 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:34
Miles Johns 0 24 of 58 41% 27 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
3 Felipe Lima 0 4 of 33 12% 5 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
Miles Johns 0 11 of 28 39% 13 of 31 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felipe Lima 31 of 137 22% 21 of 122 5 of 7 5 of 8 31 of 135 0 of 2 0 of 0
Miles Johns 55 of 134 41% 43 of 112 7 of 10 5 of 12 52 of 126 3 of 5 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felipe Lima 12 of 43 27% 9 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 2 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miles Johns 20 of 48 41% 13 of 34 4 of 5 3 of 9 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Felipe Lima 15 of 61 24% 9 of 54 3 of 3 3 of 4 15 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miles Johns 24 of 58 41% 21 of 52 2 of 4 1 of 2 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Felipe Lima 4 of 33 12% 3 of 29 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Miles Johns 11 of 28 39% 9 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns despite acknowledging Felipe Lima is more talented. He trusts Johns' veteran savvy and wrestling, but is hesitant because Johns has a history of abandoning wrestling to sit on right hands. He notes Lima slowed in his last fight and that Johns could win if he actually wrestles. He emphasizes this is a pick, not a bet, and would only consider betting if Johns is a big underdog.

No bet; would consider inside the distance/decision no action if odds are favorable.
"Miles Johns is actually going to be the pick here I'm going with the veteran Savvy and the wrestling in the back pocket but zero money at stake."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady picks Miles Johns as a big underdog, calling the line 'nonsense'. He thinks Johns is the better wrestler and can dictate where the fight goes, and notes Johns has elite defensive striking (69% defense). He believes Lima is overhyped and that his win over Naimov was aided by Naimov quitting. He expects a close fight and takes the plus money.

fight goes to distance
"I'm going to take the big dog here in Miles John's going to a very unpopular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Cody picks Felipe Lima, citing his well-rounded skills, excellent grappling, and striking. He notes that Miles Johns has a wrestling advantage but has struggled with cardio and was caught for PEDs. Cody believes Lima's volume and scrambling will win the fight, though he doesn't love the line.

"I got fipe Lima winning this fight I just don't necessarily love the line."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Felipe Lima

Connor also picks Lima, noting that Lima's game is built on the idea that he will bounce back from anything, and that Johns needs to convince opponents they can't tussle with him, which is hard against a confident young fighter like Lima. He acknowledges that Lima will get into trouble but thinks Johns' control is a veneer and that Lima's finishing ability gives him the edge.

"I don't think you can do that to a young absurdly confident fighter like Lima. So I think it'll still be dicey."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Daniel Vreeland picks Felipe Lima, contingent on him pushing a high pace. He notes Miles Johns fights at a low output and Lima must stay in his face and not give him time to rest. Vreeland believes Lima's grappling and volume can overwhelm Johns, who dislikes high-paced fights. He warns that if Lima fights at a low pace, Johns will win.

"I really think Lima's gonna come out here pushing insane Pace we know miles JNS does not like fighting at high paces and as a result I think that Lima is gonna win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Lima's more technical and aggressive striking approach, combined with defensive grappling, should allow him to land more damage and eke out a decision. However, the odds are considered too wide, and Miles Johns is a potential dog at +200, making this a hesitant pick.

Miles Johns underdog consideration at +200
"I believe the odds are a little bit too wide here but my prediction is still going to be on the Lima side as I believe his Tech more Technical and aggressive striking approach and defensive grappling will allow him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Paul picks Felipe Lima, agreeing with Cody. He notes that Johns has a path via wrestling but Lima's superior striking and grappling should prevail. Paul is not confident enough to bet heavily but sees Lima as the likely winner.

"I got fipe Lima winning this fight I just don't necessarily love the line."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

The MMA Guru picks Felipe Lima, citing his speed, dynamic kicking, and more diverse striking compared to Miles Johns, who he describes as a boxer with limited combinations. He notes that Johns is moving up to featherweight for the first time and may not have the size advantage. He also mentions Lima's youth (26) and the momentum of Brazilian prospects. He predicts Lima will finish Johns inside the distance.

finish inside the distance
"I think he's faster I think he kicks a lot better mil Johns is a boxer he wrestles a bit as well offensively here and there but he's really power punching on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Felipe Lima

Zane picks Lima but is torn. He notes that Lima is a confident, opportunistic fighter who never gives up, similar to early Brandon Moreno, while Miles Johns is a wrestle-boxer with a dated style but hits hard. Zane points out that Johns has faded in fights and his wins have asterisks, while Lima's willingness to engage and recover could overwhelm Johns. However, Lima's lack of control is a concern.

Johns opened at +232, now +204; Lima opened at -273, now -236. Zane says he likes the fight a lot.
"I think I'm inclined to take a Lima here because while I agree that Johns has been looking a lot more assured of his approach, there's still some asterisks on these performances."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 36 of 119 30% 36 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 50 of 96 52% 52 of 98 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 12 of 27 44% 12 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 7 of 15 46% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Miles Johns 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Miles Johns 0 14 of 51 27% 14 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 18 of 36 50% 19 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 36 of 119 30% 21 of 80 6 of 21 9 of 18 36 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 50 of 96 52% 37 of 82 6 of 7 7 of 7 50 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 12 of 27 44% 7 of 16 1 of 4 4 of 7 12 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 7 of 15 46% 3 of 10 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 10 of 41 24% 4 of 24 4 of 13 2 of 4 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 25 of 45 55% 19 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 14 of 51 27% 10 of 40 1 of 4 3 of 7 14 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 18 of 36 50% 15 of 33 2 of 2 1 of 1 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns, citing his youth, speed, and wrestling advantage. He notes Douglas is durable and a tough striker but is older and slowing down. He worries about Miles' cardio but believes his wrestling will be the difference. He mentions he has a moneyline bet on Miles.

Moneyline bet on Miles Johns
"I am still going Miles Johns here I do think he gets it done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Cody picks Miles Johns, citing his improved cardio and wrestling under Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. He notes that Johns used to gas out but has shown better pacing in recent fights. Cody believes Johns can outwork Silva de Andrade by pressing him against the cage and using takedowns, especially since Silva de Andrade is 39 and cuts to 135, which may affect his durability. He expects a low-volume decision win for Johns.

decision prop is decent on both sides
"I'm going to go John's to take the decision... the decision prop is actually decent on both sides."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Vreeland has a love-hate relationship with Miles Johns, noting his low output and tendency to back himself to the fence. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade's experience and durability but leans with Johns due to his physicality, youth, and confidence. He expects a low-output fight and sees Johns as the more physical younger guy.

"I'm gonna lean with Miles John's here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Jacob picks Miles Johns but expects to be nervous during the fight. He recalls Miles gassing in the Cody Gibson fight and needing motivation. He thinks Douglas is a tough bowling ball and Miles may struggle with cardio again. He notes Miles should win but it will be close.

"I'm going Miles Johns he should be able to get it done but I mean if you have a bet on Miles Johns I bet in the middle of the second round you're going to be a little bit [__] …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Johns has evolved and matured, allowing him to execute a game plan to wear on de Andrade's gas tank. By slowing him down early and evading his power, Johns will grind out a decision using clinching, takedowns, footwork, and output.

"I do think that we're seeing an evolution and maturity in Miles John's game which will allow him to execute a game plan here to wear on the gas tank of Deandra"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

Paul picks Douglas Silva de Andrade as a dog, noting that he bets him almost every fight because he is always the underdog. He highlights Silva de Andrade's durability and power, and believes that judges are not rewarding wrestling control as much these days. Paul thinks Silva de Andrade can land the bigger shots and win, despite his low volume.

found plus 117
"I bet I bet Douglas Silva de Andrade I found a plus 117 and he's my boy."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, questioning whether Miles Johns can KO him. He notes Johns couldn't KO Cody Gibson and relies too much on overhands. He thinks Silva de Andrade has better wins (Cody Stamann, Sergey Morozov) and will make reads on Johns' power shots. He also mentions Silva de Andrade's competitive fights with Lerone Murphy and Nate Maness.

"I'm GNA go with Douglas Silva Deandra was not impressed by Jon's performance against Cody Gibson"
WIN vs Cody Gibson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 25 of 79 31% 64 of 137 2 of 8 25% 0 1 6:29
Cody Gibson 0 18 of 62 29% 52 of 108 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 5 of 19 26% 14 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:15
Cody Gibson 0 4 of 22 18% 16 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Miles Johns 0 11 of 23 47% 25 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:54
Cody Gibson 0 2 of 8 25% 12 of 21 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:36
3 Miles Johns 0 9 of 37 24% 25 of 65 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:20
Cody Gibson 0 12 of 32 37% 24 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 25 of 79 31% 18 of 66 5 of 9 2 of 4 20 of 72 4 of 6 1 of 1
Cody Gibson 18 of 62 29% 9 of 39 4 of 17 5 of 6 16 of 60 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 5 of 19 26% 3 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 3 4 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 4 of 22 18% 3 of 15 0 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 18 3 of 4 1 of 1
Cody Gibson 2 of 8 25% 0 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 9 of 37 24% 6 of 31 3 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Gibson 12 of 32 37% 6 of 19 3 of 10 3 of 3 12 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cody Gibson vs. Miles Johns
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johns (-148), Gibson (+124)

Round 1
Johns (13-2, 1 NC; 4-2, 1 NC UFC) was supposed to be coming into this fight with the struggling Gibson (19-9, 1-4 UFC) on a win streak, but a failed drug test after beating Dan Argueta erased the victory. In short order, this standard undercard bantamweight matchup turned to one with greater personal stakes with both. Referee Herb Dean will sort things out, watching over the two men that do not touch gloves. Gibson starts off swirling his hand around, and he walks into a thumping leg kick. Johns swarms into action with a clubbing right hand, and he backs off and circles to the side away from strikes that come his way. Johns ducks down to swat away a leg kick, and he dips down and eats a clean uppercut. Gibson flashes out several jabs and avoids a huge overhand right, and Johns shifts to the side to get away and reset. Gibson overloads on a right hand, and he follows Johns around and grabs hold of one of Johns’ legs to think about a takedown. Johns backs him off with body shots, and he resets and dodges the swinging punches coming his direction. Johns misses a right hook by a matter of centimeters, and Gibson ties him up against the fence and knees him in the dome. Johns scores an uppercut on the break, and Gibson chases after him and jumps away to dodge a right hand. Johns races forward, and his momentum tackles “The Renegade” to the canvas. Johns resides in top position, and Gibson is immediately active with his guard, looking for a butterfly hook, a submission setup or just throwing strikes from off his back. Gibson keeps Johns from landing anything of merit, and he brings up his right leg for a rubber guard momentarily before Johns pushes it aside. Gibson tries to roll over in pursuit of an armbar, and Johns is wise to it as he stays flat on top of his opponent. Johns hammers down an elbow, and when he looks to pass, Gibson turns around to stand up with the wall at his side. Johns tries to drag him back down, and with sheer force of will, he tosses Gibson back down. Johns holds onto him while landing short but heavy right hands, as Gibson works his way up. Gibson ducks away and throws a big knee, and Johns nearly reenacts Fedor vs. Arlovski by blasting Gibson with a right hand that sends him flying. Johns points at him, and Gibson looks surprised but is still with it as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Gibson is the pressure fighter early, showing he has fully recovered from the concussive blow. He prods out a front kick and a few jabs, and Johns is well away from anything of note. Gibson drops down to grab a single, and Johns uppercuts him until he topples to the floor. Gibson grabs him from behind during a scramble, and Johns climbs back up while leaning against the cage. Gibson looks to trip or drag Johns down, but Johns escapes. Johns lands a powerful elbow that splits open a cut on Gibson’s cheek, and he crowds him and knocks him squirrely with another powerful uppercut. Johns continues to hammer his foe with uppercuts as Gibson shoots for a single, and Gibson manages to get the takedown despite absorbing the blows. Gibson follows a scrambling Johns until he takes his back, and he secures the body triangle. Gibson fishes for a choke, and Johns hand-fights and turns to flip Gibson over with a powerful reversal. Johns pins Gibson’s right arm with his knee and slugs him in the chops several times, and he keeps “The Renegade” pinned to the floor while landing shots. Johns wraps up a guillotine with one arm and lets it go to pummel Gibson with left hands until Gibson explodes back to his feet. Johns uses his full weight in an effort to wrench Gibson down, and he breaks and scores two uppercuts. Gibson resets and flicks out a jab, and Johns drills him in the lead leg with a kick and cracks him with two right hands. Gibson gathers his thoughts and leaps forward with a flying knee that skims off the dome, and Johns immediately drops down to take Gibson down with a double when Gibson lands. Gibson scrambles back upright, and Johns leans on him to land short shots until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 3
The two bantamweights clap hands as they reach the final round, and Johns sticks his jab out immediately while Gibson comes after him. Johns clubs him with three right hands and backs off with a jab, and Gibson slaps a high kick off his raised guard. Johns grapples to get hold of a single, tripping Gibson up and driving him to the fence. Gibson keeps his balance but is pressed against the wall, and Johns squeezes on him tight. Gibson manages to fight his way out of the clinch, and Johns comes up short with an uppercut on the way out. Gibson ducks down and into a few more uppercuts from “Chapo,” and he presses forward and watches a right hand slide off his cheek. They trade jabs, and change levels at the same time to no avail. Johns shoots for a single, pushing Gibson up against the wire, and he delivers a few knees to the thigh to keep busy. Dean asks for more work, and Johns connects with three clean shots that pound off Gibson’s head. Gibson breaks away, and he reaches out with a kick that is blocked. Johns rushes forward with a right hand as his lead leg is kicked, and Gibson fires off a body kick. When Gibson charges, Johns cracks him with an overhand right. Johns uses the power shot to frazzle Gibson just enough to change levels in pursuit of a single. Dean clasp for them to do more twice, and Gibson answers him by freaking away. They trade hands, and Johns doggedly goes after the single again. Lifting Gibson off the ground and slamming him down, Johns claims top position and fights off a kimura sweep. Gibson turns all the way over to stand up with less than 20 seconds left, and he walks into a right hand and pushes out a front kick. The fight ends with Johns landing one final right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns (30-27 Johns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns (30-27 Johns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns (30-27 Johns)

The Official Result
Miles Johns def. Cody Gibson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns but is hesitant because he doesn't trust Johns to wrestle consistently. He notes that Johns has the tools to dominate but often abandons wrestling for power punches. He considers a small bet or parlay with another sketchy fighter, but is not fully confident.

possible half unit bet or parlay
"Miles Johns is the better fighter in this matchup he is going to be the pick in this matchup because of that but I don't know if I can trust him to do what he needs to do here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Big Brady picks Cody Gibson, citing Gibson's volume, durability, and cardio advantage. He notes Miles Johns is on short notice and has questionable cardio and durability (both losses inside the distance). He expects Johns to have early success but Gibson to take over and finish him in the third round by knockout.

finish in third round
"I'll say miles JNS probably has some success early I just kind of feel like Cody Gibson's going to take over as the fight goes on uh win that second and then finish miles J's in the third round so …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Cody picks Gibson, citing his forward pressure and wrestling. He notes that Johns has cardio issues and was likely on steroids in his last win. Cody believes Gibson's volume and aggression will earn him rounds, especially if Johns fades. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"Ever so slightly I do give it to Cody Gibson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Miles Johns, citing his athleticism and one-punch power. He acknowledges Gibson's high output but worries about Gibson's durability and tendency to slow down. He thinks Johns can land a big shot or grind out a win, but he is not confident enough to bet the favorite.

"I kind of lean towards miles but I am not gonna bet chalk on Miles John's against an output machine"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Johns is quick, explosive, and has multiple ways to win: wrestling, power, movement. He slows down late but has improved his cardio. Gibson is a veteran boxer with good footwork but can be taken down and ground out. Johns' speed and variety should be too much, but confidence is not high. Expect a decision win for Johns.

Johns by decision
"I don't have Uber confidence in John's here but I think that he can do enough in terms of putting together a body of work to win on the scorecards which is why I'm going to go by with him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

Paul agrees, emphasizing that takedowns may not be scored highly by judges, as seen in recent fights. He thinks Gibson's volume will be the deciding factor. Paul also notes Gibson's toughness and recent Fight of the Night bonus.

"Wrestling doesn't matter anymore bro it's Cody Gibson for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Cody Gibson

The MMA Guru picks Cody Gibson as an underdog over Miles Johns. He believes Johns is breakable under pressure and that Gibson's size and pace will break him. He notes Gibson's height and reach advantage, and thinks knees in the clinch will be key. He predicts a third-round TKO for Gibson.

third round TKO
"Cody Gibson is who I'm picking here over miles Johns... third round TKO for Cody Gibson"
LOSS vs Dan Argueta
No Contest (overturned) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Argueta 0 33 of 85 38% 38 of 95 2 of 6 33% 2 0 3:55
Miles Johns 0 43 of 92 46% 52 of 104 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Argueta 0 3 of 14 21% 8 of 21 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:14
Miles Johns 0 8 of 21 38% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
2 Dan Argueta 0 16 of 32 50% 16 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Miles Johns 0 14 of 28 50% 23 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:50
3 Dan Argueta 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:20
Miles Johns 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Argueta 33 of 85 38% 20 of 67 8 of 12 5 of 6 22 of 70 5 of 8 6 of 7
Miles Johns 43 of 92 46% 32 of 77 5 of 9 6 of 6 40 of 84 2 of 3 1 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Argueta 3 of 14 21% 1 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 2 3 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 8 of 21 38% 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Dan Argueta 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 3 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 24 5 of 7 1 of 1
Miles Johns 14 of 28 50% 10 of 22 3 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Dan Argueta 14 of 39 35% 9 of 33 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 33 0 of 0 5 of 6
Miles Johns 21 of 43 48% 14 of 34 2 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 41 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Angelo trusts Argueta's wrestling-first game plan and believes Johns' takedown defense is inflated because he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. He expects Argueta to stay on the hips and outwork Johns. Pretty confident pick.

"Dan Argueta pretty confident pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Big Brady picks Miles Johns as an underdog, calling the fight close and likely to go to decision. He likes Johns' defensive wrestling and striking defense, and notes Johns has power and out-lands opponents despite low volume. He thinks Argueta may have wrestling success later as Johns slows down, but believes Johns can win at least two rounds. He prefers the plus money.

"give me miles Jones for a decision but it's gonna be a close fight nonetheless"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Cody picks Dan Argueta, impressed by his toughness and grappling. He notes Argueta's strong wrestling and submission threats, while Johns has cardio issues and slows down. He believes Argueta's pressure and pace will overwhelm Johns in later rounds.

"I got our Guetta I don't mind the pre-line money line I got a feeling that if he gets off to a slow start and maybe loses that first round you can get an even better price tag on him."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Daniel picks Argueta but without strong conviction. He thinks Johns has been a letdown in the UFC, with low output and a tendency to break under pressure. He questions whether Argueta can push the pace needed to break Johns, but believes Argueta's hunger and takedown volume might be enough. He acknowledges the line is close to accurate and is not betting it.

"I'm gonna go with arua as a pick so one of us is right here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Lucrative James likes Miles Johns at the line, calling it an overcorrection. He thinks Johns can defend takedowns early and has power on the feet. He notes Johns is a good wrestler himself and could get takedowns. He sees the fight as close, possibly a pick'em, but favors Johns.

"I like Miles Johns at the line anyway."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The host picks Argueta at minus 170, calling it a gift line. He praises Argueta's wrestling, cardio, and pressure, expecting him to wear on Johns and pull away late. He notes Johns' wins are over lower-level opponents and that Argueta is superior in grappling and pace. He predicts a decision win for Argueta after a close first round.

"minus 170 in my opinion is a gift of a line here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

Paul picks Argueta but prefers live betting. He worries about Argueta's low volume and Johns's 92% takedown defense. He thinks Johns may win early rounds but Argueta's cardio advantage could take over. He is interested in Argueta by submission or round 3 prop.

Interested in Argueta round 3 prop at +800.
"I'm gonna pick our geta but pre-flop not very interested in the minus 175... I think it's a better spot like if he goes out there takes down miles John's immediately off the Hop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Argueta

The MMA Guru picks Dan Argueta, criticizing Miles Johns' weak strength of schedule, noting his opponents include Kevin Natividad and Anderson dos Santos. He praises Argueta's training at Jackson Wink MMA, his judo background, and his toughness in taking Damon Jackson to a close decision. He believes Argueta is a gradually improving fighter with good hips and strength, while Johns has plateaued. He expects Argueta to win via grappling and pressure.

"I'm probably gonna go with our getter here I've actually been quite surprised by our getter's career because I didn't think he was going to be much of anything before he joined the UFC..."
WIN vs Vince Morales
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miles Johns 0 39 of 131 29% 47 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Vince Morales 0 38 of 103 36% 45 of 110 1 of 12 8% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miles Johns 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Miles Johns 0 11 of 43 25% 13 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Vince Morales 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
3 Miles Johns 0 20 of 56 35% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Vince Morales 0 15 of 45 33% 22 of 52 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miles Johns 39 of 131 29% 28 of 112 9 of 15 2 of 4 36 of 127 3 of 4 0 of 0
Vince Morales 38 of 103 36% 28 of 92 4 of 5 6 of 6 38 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miles Johns 8 of 32 25% 6 of 27 1 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 10 of 26 38% 7 of 23 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miles Johns 11 of 43 25% 6 of 35 5 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
Vince Morales 13 of 32 40% 8 of 27 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miles Johns 20 of 56 35% 16 of 50 3 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
Vince Morales 15 of 45 33% 13 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 1 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Miles Johns vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johns (-165), Morales (+140)

Round 1
The bantamweight ride continues with two more heavy-handed and fast-paced competitors, as Morales (11-6, 3-4 UFC) throws down with recent Glory MMA trainee Johns (12-2, 3-2 UFC). Referee Chris Tognoni steels himself for the action, whether it lasts 15 seconds or 15 minutes, and the two would rather battle it out than touch gloves – the bad blood appears to be high, as the commission had to separate them ahead of the introductions. Now that the fight is on, the two 135ers do not engage, with over 30 seconds elapsing before either man throws a single strike. Johns reaches out with a straight left hand and a leg kick, and Morales responds with a left hab. Johns pushes him back with a jab of his own, and he doubles up on it while Morales is measuring his range. The two collide with heavy blows at the same time, but neither man budges an inch. The inactivity continues as they are not willing to commit on their strikes, and any power punches go well away from their intended targets. Johns steps in with a quick calf kick, and Morales takes a funny step back after absorbing it. A quick jab from “Chapo” makes Morales backpedal, but it is one-and-done until Morales gets his gumption to toss out a single low kick. Johns loads up on a right hand, but Morales ducks it in the nick of time. Johns pokes out with a jab, and he slides back as Morales whips a left hook towards him. Morales attempts to get his own jab doing, snapping it out a few times and ducking when Johns throws a right hand that would have knocked down a building. Johns crashes forward suddenly to snag a single, and Morales hops back and yanks his leg out. Johns loads up on another massive overhand right, and he does not find the target with that but gets off a clean left hook. The activity spikes, relative to the other action, when Johns scores a few left hands before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
Johns lords over the center of the cage when the round begins, and neither man is willing to throw anything effective. The two jab at one another, and Johns’ mouth begins to bleed. Johns thumps the lead calf with his shin, and he pushes out a jab that makes Morales blink a few times. As Morales marches forward, he throws hard, and Johns dips down and grabs hold of a single. “Vandetta” wriggles the leg out and races away, resetting in the middle of the Octagon and preparing to throw. As Morales comes forward, he walks into one of Johns’ outstretched fingers, and Tognoni recognizes this and pauses the bout. To give Morales additional time to recover, Tognoni calls in the doctor to check on the condition of Morales’ eye, and Morales explains that he is good to go and holds no ill will towards his opponent. After about 90 seconds, the two get back to business, the jabs come from the fighters at the restart. Johns walks his man down and swats out several jabs, and he releases several booming hooks that all miss one after the other. Morales circles out and into a low kick, but he shows no concern and reaches out with a front kick to the sternum. Morales catches a low kick and swipes out with a right hand, but Johns replies with a swiping right hand on the way out. Johns blocks a high kick and eats a jab, and he charges with a small barrage that bounce off the guard. Johns glances a right hand over the top, and he finds himself eating a kick to the belly for his work. “Chapo” loads up on another right hand, following it with a high crotch single-leg but not succeeding with it. Morales defends with elbows to the side of the head, and this distracts him enough for Johns to elevate him and slam him down one second before time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
Jabs are exchanged to start off the final round of what has been a tepid and tentative affair. The striking accuracy totals of both bantamweights are likely extremely low, especially in the significant strike category. Johns ducks in for a single without setting it up, and he lifts Morales’ left leg up in the air and chases him from one side of the cage to the other. Morales trips to the floor, and he bounces right back up without a care in the world. On the reset, Morales picks and pokes with a jab, and Johns sits down with a calf kick that lands with an audible thud. Morales replies with a slapping body kick, but the bantamweights are largely targeting one another with single strikes. Johns misses with a right hand, Morales is similarly inaccurate, and they return to their jab-centric approach. Morales chains a jab into a right hand, and Johns gives chase and swarms him with winging but missing punches. “Chapo” attempts another single, and this is nowhere near secure as Morales springs away. Morales makes him pay for this attempt with another body kick, and Johns blitzes him with a single-leg takedown effort. “Vandetta” keeps himself from hitting the mat once more, and he plants a front kick on the torso while Johns swings at air. They alternate with jabs, and the follow-up strikes from both fighters miss the mark again and again. Johns fires off huge overhand rights, but the evasiveness of Morales keeps him safe from harm. Johns attacks with one final takedown, and he bullies Morales to the wall and holds him there until the fight comes to a merciful end. The judges will have their hands full evaluating this lackluster contest.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Johns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Miles Johns def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
LOSS vs John Castañeda
Technical Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 1:38 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
John Castañeda 0 34 of 85 40% 34 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 1 58 of 147 39% 68 of 159 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 John Castañeda 0 11 of 27 40% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 0 16 of 48 33% 16 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 John Castañeda 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 0 25 of 68 36% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
3 John Castañeda 0 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miles Johns 1 17 of 31 54% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
John Castañeda 34 of 85 40% 27 of 76 6 of 8 1 of 1 33 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
Miles Johns 58 of 147 39% 40 of 113 6 of 11 12 of 23 47 of 129 7 of 11 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 John Castañeda 11 of 27 40% 8 of 24 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miles Johns 16 of 48 33% 7 of 30 2 of 3 7 of 15 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 John Castañeda 17 of 44 38% 13 of 38 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 25 of 68 36% 19 of 56 2 of 5 4 of 7 21 of 62 2 of 4 2 of 2
3 John Castañeda 6 of 14 42% 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Miles Johns 17 of 31 54% 14 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 19 5 of 7 2 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
John Castaneda vs. Miles Johns

Round 1
The prelims conclude with a bantamweight battle as Fortis MMA standout Johns (12-1, 3-1 UFC) takes on longtime Combate Americas vet Castaneda (18-5, 1-1 UFC). Without wasting any more time, the fighters meet in the middle and touch gloves as referee Mike Beltran keeps a watchful eye. Castaneda swings a head kick that misses the mark by a wide margin, and Johns is holding on to a healthy distance as he circles against the outer edge of the cage. Johns blocks a high kick, but he does not throw much more back than a jab. Castaneda continues throwing his kick up on high, and it does not succeed again. Johns remains elusive but is not swinging much of his own, and he suddenly bursts forward with a left-right combo. Castaneda walks forward and gets his head snapped back with a right hook, and Johns takes a step back to avoid a possible counter. “Sexi Mexi” has a kick slap off Johns’ leg, and Johns is waiting with an overhand right counter that brushes off his chin. Castaneda reaches out with his fingers outstretched, and one grazes the eyeball of his opponent to force a brief stoppage. Johns clears his eye and they resume, as Castaneda gives chase but cannot land much on his defensive foe. Johns blocks a head kick and absorbs a low kick, and he misses with a left hand. The accuracy rate and volume this round are quite low, as both men are largely content to swing with single strikes. Johns looks for an uppercut counter, and he bumps into Castaneda’s chin but does not land flush. A right hand from “Chapo” drills into Castaneda’s jaw, but he wears it well and does not take much more than a step back. Castaneda connects with a loud body kick, stepping back just in the nick of time to avoid a looping punch from the Fortis MMA fighter. They feint and fake at one another, and three head kicks from Castaneda are all blocked right before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Johns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johns

Round 2
The second frame begins with a glove touch, and Castaneda opens up with a kick that pounds square into Johns’ cup. Johns tries to say he is good to go, but Beltran gives him more time to recover. When they begin again, Johns is there with a big right hand. Castaneda kicks low again but this one is legal, and Johns suddenly burst into activity as he swarms his man with a barrage of punches. Castaneda shakes them off, but Johns is fired up and throwing with bad intentions. “Sexi Mexi” blocks and dodges many of the strikes, and he marches Johns down and gets punched in the stomach. Johns catches a head kick right on the side of his head, and he shakes it off somehow and tries to suck Castaneda into a brawl. Johns sets a trap to lure Castaneda in and bomb him with hooks, but Castaneda does not fall for it and keeps pressuring Johns around the cage. Castaneda lands a right hand on the side of the head, and Johns’ face looks far less confident than the previous round. Castaneda keeps bullying Johns back, and even though not all of his strikes land, he is constantly forcing the Fortis fighter to fight off his back foot. Castaneda clips Johns with a right hand, and Johns staggers back and may have remained upright thanks to the fence behind him. Castaneda charges at him, lands again and pushes Johns to the ground. Castaneda willingly climbs into the guard, slowly working with ground-and-pound all while he passes to half guard. Johns turns to his side and gets elbowed on the side of the head, and with a surge of adrenaline, he kicks Castaneda off of him and powers back to his feet. Johns loads up on a big right hand, but his target is several feet away. Castaneda wades into the danger zone to let loose with a head kick, and several more punches as Johns is predominantly aiming with a home-run shot. The second round ends with Johns winging a right hand that clatters off the guard.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Castaneda

Round 3
Castaneda opens the final round the aggressor, forcing Johns to back away as he avoids punches that loom. Castaneda scores a low kick, and he ducks a huge punch from Johns. Castaneda dodges and weaves, cracking Johns with a right hand and staying safe from the reckless, wide hooks coming back at him. Johns wobbles back, and Castaneda lays into him with a knee and a body shot. Johns throws a punch so hard he spins around, and Castaneda charges. With “Sexi Mexi” laying into his tired foe with a couple punches, a powerful knee and an uppercut, Johns’ legs give way beneath him and he falls to the floor.
Castaneda pounces, landing in three-quarter mount while he hooks up an arm-triangle choke. Johns defends off his back by hooking his arm beneath his knee, but his arm grows weary and he retracts it. “Chapo” considers tapping out, but he goes out on his shield, with the arm-triangle choke sending him off to dreamland.
Beltran notices that Johns’ is fast asleep and intervenes, and Castaneda is now the first fighter to ever submit Johns.

The Official Result
John Castaneda def. Miles Johns R3 1:38 via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Angelo picks Miles Johns for his power and wrestling. He notes Johns has heavy hands and explosive takedowns, coming off two knockout wins. Castañeda is a fun, high-pressure fighter with fast hands and takedowns but lacks power. Angelo believes Johns' power and wrestling will match Castañeda's pressure and secure the win.

"i like miles john's here this entire card is stacked with fun fights and this is absolutely another one i like john's power and his wrestling to match castaneda's forward pressure and toughness this should be a fun one but …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Johns' volume is low and he can be edged out. He thinks Castañeda is a live underdog because Johns' style leaves room for an upset. He is leaning Castañeda but not ready to pull the trigger fully.

"i'm leaning with you i've got uh i'm going with castaneda as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Levi picks Miles Johns, citing his athleticism, speed, and higher pace. He notes Johns has five-round experience and has beaten tough guys like Adrian Yanez. Levi thinks Castañeda is a step behind athletically and often fights on his back foot. He expects Johns to push the pace and win a decision, though he acknowledges Castañeda's technical skills and the possibility of an upset.

"give me miles john's to come out here and win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miles Johns

Lock of the Night picks Johns, citing his wrestling advantage and improving striking. He notes that Castañeda is the better technical striker but Johns can initiate takedowns and control the fight. He likes Johns by decision at +130.

Johns by decision +130
"i think the ace in the pocket here for john's has got to be the takedowns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
John Castañeda

Paul sees Castañeda as a live underdog. He notes that Miles Johns has low volume and can make mental mistakes. He thinks Castañeda has decent power and cardio, and if Johns makes a mistake, Castañeda can capitalize. He is leaning towards Castañeda but not fully committed.

"i am looking at john castaneda as a live underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miles Johns

The MMA Guru picks Miles Johns, citing his momentum and power advantage. He references Johns' wins over Anderson dos Santos and Kevin Natividad, and notes Castañeda was schooled by Nathaniel Wood. He predicts a 29-28 decision with Johns winning the first two rounds due to power, and Castañeda possibly taking the third.

decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna go with miles john's here 29-28 i'm gonna go miles john's wins the first two rounds here"
Expert Picks (3)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Miles Johns

Daniel Levi picks Miles Johns by unanimous decision. He believes Johns' wrestling and power will make Bautista hesitant to throw volume. He expects Johns to mix takedowns with heavy shots and control the fight, capitalizing on Bautista's takedown defense issues.

"I think miles Johns is gonna come out here and win a unanimous decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Mario Bautista as a dog, citing his reach advantage, body kicks, and cardio. He believes Bautista can survive the first round and then outpoint Miles Johns in the later rounds, as Johns may fade. He notes that Bautista has good takedown defense and can get back up if taken down.

Bautista by decision
"I like the dog here again another dog play for you guys is Mario Bautista personally I'm gonna be choosing between Jonathan Martinez and Moz John's at least as a dog there might be another dog that I boo I see later in the card but those are definitely one …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Miles Johns

The MMA Guru picks Miles Johns because he is undefeated and has beaten decent guys, including Cole Smith. He expects a decision win, possibly a slow fight if Johns gets his way.

decision win
"I just feel like my old John's is gonna get the job done over Mario Bautista I like the fact he's undefeated he's beaten some decent guys as well"