UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
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Age 38
Height 5' 5"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Valentina Shevchenko
3.04 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.0 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
2.65 TD Avg
61.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Katlyn Cerminara
4.58 SLpM
34.0% Str. Acc.
4.48 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.31 TD Avg
15.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Valentina Shevchenko - Fight History
WIN vs Zhang Weili
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 41 of 68 60% 137 of 186 5 of 6 83% 0 0 13:24
Zhang Weili 0 32 of 98 32% 80 of 161 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 13 61% 21 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Zhang Weili 0 7 of 17 41% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 9 of 10 90% 34 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:09
Zhang Weili 0 1 of 8 12% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 7 of 18 38% 19 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:43
Zhang Weili 0 9 of 26 34% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 13 of 21 61% 31 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Zhang Weili 0 10 of 30 33% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 4 of 6 66% 32 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:46
Zhang Weili 0 5 of 17 29% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 41 of 68 60% 21 of 44 14 of 17 6 of 7 27 of 47 8 of 14 6 of 7
Zhang Weili 32 of 98 32% 9 of 59 13 of 26 10 of 13 25 of 90 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 8 2 of 5 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 7 of 17 41% 4 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 9 of 10 90% 6 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 4
Zhang Weili 1 of 8 12% 0 of 4 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 7 of 18 38% 5 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 3 1 of 2
Zhang Weili 9 of 26 34% 1 of 15 4 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 13 of 21 61% 5 of 11 6 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 10 of 30 33% 3 of 17 4 of 9 3 of 4 9 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 1 of 1
Zhang Weili 5 of 17 29% 1 of 11 3 of 4 1 of 2 2 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo leans towards Zhang Weili, citing her superior wrestling and athleticism. He believes Weili's clean double-leg takedowns will be effective against Valentina Shevchenko, who relies on striking to set up takedowns. He acknowledges Shevchenko's experience and durability but thinks Weili's speed and wrestling will be the difference.

"I am going to slightly lean way Lee here. I think the wrestling is going to be the difference."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady leans Valentina Shevchenko, citing her size advantage and natural weight class. He notes Shevchenko's wrestling ability, having taken down Manon Fiorot, and believes she can get takedowns on Zhang Weili, who was taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas. However, he acknowledges Zhang's physical strength and says it wouldn't shock him if Zhang gets top position. Brady is not betting on this fight and predicts a decision win for Shevchenko.

"I'm going to lean Valentina Shiftenko ever so slightly. I think it's a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody picks Valentina due to her size, experience, and well-rounded skills. He notes that she is an elite kickboxer and wrestler, and that her trilogy with Grasso was a blip. He highlights that Zhang has had takedown defense issues in the past, and that Valentina consistently scores takedowns. He believes Valentina's size and strength will be key, and that she will win by decision.

Valentina Shevchenko by decision
"Valentina Shevchenko by decision play for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Connor picks Shevchenko but is hesitant, calling it a coin flip. He argues that Shevchenko's simple, patient style and mental stamina will frustrate Zhang, who struggles with distance and initiating exchanges. He notes that Zhang's wrestling might be neutralized by Shevchenko's clinch and top control, and that Zhang has been vulnerable when taken down.

Odds: Shevchenko opened +120, now -135; Zhang opened -140, now +115.
"I'm going to take Shevchenko, but I'm fascinated by the fight too. It genuinely feels like a coin flip to me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel respects Shevchenko's technical striking and well-rounded game, but sees Zhang as the fighter making rapid improvements, especially in wrestling. He notes that Zhang has outgrappled elite wrestlers like Carla Esparza and Tatiana Suarez, while Shevchenko hasn't shown the same evolution. He also likes the dog odds on Zhang and believes she can become a double champ.

"I'm actually going to pick Jean Lee to come out here, make history, become another double champ, and bring another belt back to China."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Lucrative James picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, stating she is the greatest women's fighter of all time. He believes her wrestling and grappling are superior to Zhang's, and she can outskill her on the feet. He notes both fighters have losses due to grappling, but trusts Shevchenko's takedown accuracy and experience against tougher opponents. He expects Shevchenko to control the fight and win a decision or possibly a late submission.

"My prediction is going to be fairly short and sweet here, boys. It's going to be Valentina Chevchenko to get the win and go down as the greatest women's fighter that we have ever seen in MMA."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko's size and overall MMA advantages muzzle Zhang's style. She mixes martial arts well, sets up takedowns behind strikes, and wins on the scorecards.

"I think that Chevchenko is the side here. Look for her size and overall MMA advantages to help her really muzzle that uh style of Jeang. ... I expect her to do it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Valentina's size advantage and superior wrestling. He notes that both fighters are similar in age but that Valentina is the bigger fighter and has a better takedown ratio. He thinks the fight will come down to grappling and top position, and that Valentina will win those exchanges. He also mentions that Valentina is more technical on the feet.

"give me the bigger bigger fighter with frankly a better, you know, takedown to taken down uh ratio."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by split decision. He believes Zhang is a better fighter than Alexa Grasso and Manon Fiorot, who gave Shevchenko close fights. He notes Shevchenko's recent performances have been less dominant, and Zhang's grappling and striking should be competitive. The Guru also suggests promotional favoritism towards the Chinese market could influence a close decision.

"I'm gonna go Jang Lee. Lighter woman's skill. Um I think she's better than Alexa Carraso and I think that's what this is going to come down to."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Zane also picks Shevchenko hesitantly, emphasizing that Zhang's game plan may not work against Shevchenko's patience. He notes that Zhang has become a punch-and-clutch fighter but still struggles with range, and Shevchenko will force her to initiate. He sees Shevchenko's ability to maintain a low-risk fight as key.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm going to pick Shevchenko just because I think because Weilijang struggles so much with that distance, that if her opponent is well attuned to taking advantage of that fact, they can take her down."
WIN vs Manon Fiorot
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 1 72 of 149 48% 173 of 251 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:52
Manon Fiorot 0 71 of 160 44% 150 of 239 1 of 12 8% 0 0 7:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 19 of 36 52% 57 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Manon Fiorot 0 13 of 32 40% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 20 40% 21 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Manon Fiorot 0 12 of 28 42% 31 of 47 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:59
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 14 of 28 50% 36 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Manon Fiorot 0 14 of 28 50% 29 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:40
4 Valentina Shevchenko 1 16 of 32 50% 29 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Manon Fiorot 0 14 of 33 42% 32 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:31
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 15 of 33 45% 30 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Manon Fiorot 0 18 of 39 46% 38 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 72 of 149 48% 48 of 118 7 of 12 17 of 19 62 of 126 7 of 18 3 of 5
Manon Fiorot 71 of 160 44% 29 of 113 35 of 37 7 of 10 40 of 124 29 of 33 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 19 of 36 52% 15 of 31 0 of 1 4 of 4 18 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Manon Fiorot 13 of 32 40% 6 of 25 5 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 20 40% 5 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0
Manon Fiorot 12 of 28 42% 7 of 22 4 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 19 5 of 6 2 of 3
3 Valentina Shevchenko 14 of 28 50% 6 of 18 1 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 22 3 of 6 0 of 0
Manon Fiorot 14 of 28 50% 5 of 16 8 of 10 1 of 2 4 of 18 10 of 10 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 16 of 32 50% 10 of 26 1 of 1 5 of 5 14 of 22 0 of 6 2 of 4
Manon Fiorot 14 of 33 42% 5 of 23 8 of 8 1 of 2 7 of 25 7 of 8 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 15 of 33 45% 12 of 27 2 of 4 1 of 2 14 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Manon Fiorot 18 of 39 46% 6 of 27 10 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Women’s Flyweight Title Fight: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiorot (-148), Shevchenko (+124)

Round 1
For the first time since 2022, champion Shevchenko (24-4-1, 13-3-1 UFC) will be facing a woman not named Grasso. She draws surging Frenchwoman Fiorot (12-1, 7-0 UFC), who could become the first French-born undisputed champion in UFC history—Ciryl Gane won the interim heavyweight strap. To the surprise of some, Fiorot will close as the betting favorite, but when the cage door closes, it’s all between the two flyweights and referee Marc Goddard. They cordially tap their gloves together to make it official. Shevchenko slaps out a leg kick and leans to avoid a head kick, with Fiorot advancing early. Shevchenko pushes her away to score a body kick, and she zips away before another high kick can reach her. Shevchenko clips the challenger with a one-two, who seems surprised by the blows and has to blink them out. Shevchenko blocks a kick to get off a right hand, and she ducks a right hook when Fiorot strikes. Fiorot plants a kick on the lead leg, and she is countered when trying a second. Shevchenko lets Fiorot come in so she can catch her with a check right hook, and Fiorot looks for a kick on the other side. Shevchenko considers changing levels, but ends up blocking a kick and skirting to the side. Shevchenko stands the Frenchwoman up with a right hand, and her low kick continues to find its mark. Shevchenko flicks up a kick to the nose that reddens it up fast, and Fiorot adjusts it. Shevchenko spins with a wheel kick, and Fiorot dodges but cannot get her hands on the champ. Fiorot walks face-first into a right hand, and she bangs her lead leg into her foe’s guard. The right hand from Shevchenko bloodies up Fiorot’s nose, and she stings her again and shakes her up. The nose for the challenger is busted and bleeding badly just three minutes in, and Fiorot ignores it and surges forward. Shevchenko dances easily out of the way to reset, and she is met with a kick that she catches and tackles Fiorot to the ground. Shevchenko lands in half guard, where she lords over her foe and completely controls her. Goddard asks for more action, with Shevchenko content to impose heavy shoulder pressure. Fiorot elbows her opponent in the posterior while Shevchenko lands a few punches, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko

Round 2
Fiorot starts the round with her foot flying, and she shoots in for a double. Shevchenko leans against the wall to defend it, and she ducks away to escape. Shevchenko whips a kick up high that starts the bleeding again, and Fiorot promptly wipes her nose. Shevchenko spins with a back kick that slams into her ribs, and she skips away to evade a counter. Fiorot level changes and hits a 5-foot-5 wall that punches her in the face. Fiorot comes up short with a head kick, and she goes after a single that is equally futile. Shevchenko stands and waits for her opponent to come to her, countering her and hitting a trip to put the Frenchwoman on the mat. Fiorot scrambles madly to flip Shevchenko over, and they both get to their feet. Shevchenko beats Fiorot to the punch with her jab repeatedly, and she shoots for a double and cannot quite get it as Fiorot hops around skillfully. Fiorot pushes her foe back to get back to kickboxing range, and she raises up a high kick that gets blocked. Fiorot shoots for a takedown, and Shevchenko sprawls against the wall. Fiorot peels her leg away and grabs her from behind, leaning on the champ and kneeing her to the back of the thigh. Shevchenko spins away, but not before eating an elbow. Fiorot’s head kick cannot find its target, and she times a right hand with a takedown shot. Fiorot uses pure brute force to lift Shevchenko up in the air and dump her down, where she laces her legs around “Bullet” to pin her to her seat. Shevchenko posts off her right arm and barely blocks an illegal knee while she was grounded that Goddard did not see. Shevchenko does not protest, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 3
Goddard issues a hard warning between rounds, having acknowledged the near-foul, and the ladies get back to combat. They trade leg kicks to start, and Shevchenko goes high while Fiorot goes low a second time. Fiorot ignores a head kick that soars past her, and she stands there waiting for more offense to come at her. It is another blockable head kick, and she stuffs a takedown and reaches out with a right hand as Fiorot abandons it. The champ kicks the inside of the lead leg and flicks out a few jabs to get some space, and she nearly gets caught with a high kick. Shevchenko kicks the outer side of the leg, and they crash together when both going for level changes. Fiorot brings up a knee and an elbow, and Shevchenko scores a few jabs. When Fiorot charges, Shevchenko turns to the side and sprints around the cage to reset. Shevchenko shoots for a takedown that is unsuccessful, and she comes up top with a right hand. Fiorot fails on her own takedown effort, and she clinches up to drive four knees to the midsection. Shevchenko misses on a front kick to break, and she proceeds to work the front leg further. Fiorot flails her way in, inaccurate with her approach, and Shevchenko knees her in the face when Fiorot ducks down. This does not deter the Frenchwoman, who looks for a body lock takedown. Fiorot scores a knee or two to the inner thigh, and she plants one on the groin that Shevchenko once again does not protest. On the break, Shevchenko busts her foe’s nose open again with a right hand. The jab is soon to follow from the champ, who spins with a powerful back fist that forces Fiorot to shoot. Fiorot uses pure power to elevate her foe, and Shevchenko is able to hop around and keep her balance with the wall at her side. Fiorot knees the back of the leg, and Shevchenko pushes off the cage as Fiorot’s team claim falsely that she grabbed the fence—Goddard replies, “not even close.” Shevchenko pushes off with a punch and a kick, and the close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 4
The women meet the championship rounds, and Fiorot is amped up and ready to continue as she pitches kicks and jabs out. Fiorot lands a side kick, and Shevchenko surges forward with two hooks. Shevchenko times a head kick to spin with a wheel kick that nails the challenger on the chin. Fiorot shakes her head, and she has her nose bleeding early with peppery jabs. Fiorot ducks under one in pursuit of a double, and she succeeds in pushing Shevchenko against the cage but no further. Fiorot settles for a few knees up close and personal, and she transitions to a single that Shevchenko thwarts with a few punches up top. Fiorot zips past her foe with offense, and Shevchenko is calm and a cucumber and counters her. Shevchenko tries a quick takedown, and Fiorot backs her off with a knee to the midsection. Shevchenko knees Fiorot and skirts to the side to let the Frenchwoman go past her again, playing the matador. She drills Fiorot with a stern spinning kick to the ribcage, and all Fiorot can do is reset and try to move forward and clinch. Fiorot scores a knee in the tie-up before pushing her to the wall, where she leans heavily on her adversary and scoring a few more knees. Shevchenko breaks free while dodging a knee up the middle, and she kicks the lead leg of her advancing foe. Fiorot leaps forward and is out of range, and Shevchenko times a sneaky takedown to drag Fiorot to her seat. Fiorot rushes back to her feet and starts kneeing the champ in the side. Fiorot manages to get off an elbow in the clinch, and she pushes out a side kick. Fiorot spins with nothing, and Shevchenko counters her with a right hand that sends her flying to the ground. Shevchenko pounces, ending the round in style with ground-and-pound.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko

Round 5
The fifth round has arrived, and it could be split leading into it. Fiorot acknowledges this and fights behind her jab, while Shevchenko shifts to the side and keeps moving. Fiorot chases her down and knees her once in the belly before tying her up, and she looks for a body lock takedown. Fiorot whiffs with an elbow on the break, and a high kick grazes her chin on the way out. Shevchenko counters her over the top with a left hand, and Fiorot bites down on her mouthpiece and slings leather back her direction. Shevchenko ducks a few punches to change levels, and Fiorot stonewalls her and shoves her back. Shevchenko smacks the front leg with a kick, continuously moving and blasting Fiorot with a spinning back fist. Fiorot is tough as a stale baguette, and she pushes forward into the clinch. Shevchenko breaks away and kicks her in the side. Shevchenko pecks out a jab, and she leaps forward with a Superwoman punch and a level change. Fiorot turns her about and pushes her to the wall, but she cannot keep the champ there. Fiorot fakes a spin, and she is at least a foot away from a head kick. Shevchenko connects with a punch, and Fiorot darts towards her with a short punch salvo before clinching up again. Fiorot knees her in the belly and leans on her, winding up with distance to plant the knees on the thigh. Fiorot sneaks around to grab the back of the champion, who spins around with a right hand as Fiorot tosses a head kick at her. Shevchenko counters a kick with a right hand, and her one-two comes up short. Her second lands, but not before Fiorot scores too. Shevchenko dings the challenger with a spinning back fist, and Fiorot pays her back with a knee and an elbow. Shevchenko knees back, and she aims a head kick at the bell. They go the distance, and the scores could go either way. Both women put their hands in the air after 25 minutes of fairly evenly-matched combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko (48-47 Shevchenko)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (48-47 Fiorot)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (48-47 Fiorot)

The Official Result
Valentina Shevchenko def. Manon Fiorot via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo picks Manon Fiorot to become the new champion, citing her size, power, takedown defense, and striking. He acknowledges Valentina Shevchenko's evolution into wrestling but believes Fiorot's takedown defense and power will be too much. He thinks Fiorot controls the striking and keeps the fight on her feet.

"Mannon Fau is going to be the pick. I think she controls the striking. I think she keeps a fight on her feet and I think she becomes the new strawweight world champion."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady is hesitant but leans Fiorot. He notes Fiorot's high-volume striking, elite takedown defense (93%), and physical strength. He acknowledges Shevchenko looked great against Grasso but questions if that was due to Grasso's poor performance. He thinks Fiorot's movement and the big cage help her, and she can defend takedowns. He predicts a close decision win for Fiorot.

"I am going to go with Man on Fior to win a a close and competitive decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Connor picks Valentina Shevchenko, agreeing with Zane that she is a master of distance management. He notes that Fiorot's wrestling has not been tested against someone like Shevchenko, who has developed new takedown entries. Connor believes that Fiorot's game is not dynamic enough to exploit any potential age-related decline in Shevchenko.

"I'm surprised that chef chenko is an underdog here. I really am too. I have to assume she won't close as an underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host notes Shevchenko has been an underdog three times in the UFC and is 3-0 in those fights, expecting her to go 4-0. He believes she will compete in striking but ultimately use her clinch and grappling to dictate the pace and win on the scorecards.

"Shvchenko has already come into the UFC as an underdog three times, and she's 3-0 in those matchups."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Shevchenko, believing she is being disrespected as an underdog. He notes her championship experience, reach advantage, and recent dominant win over Grasso. He questions Fiorot's performance against Rose Namajunas, who fought with a broken hand, and thinks Shevchenko's technical striking and adjustments will win her a decision.

decision
"I'm going to go with Valentina Chevhenko getting this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Zane picks Valentina Shevchenko, arguing that she is a master of distance management and preventative footwork, making it incredibly difficult for opponents to get into range. He notes that Fiorot's striking has structural flaws, with her chin rising and feet squaring when she commits. Zane believes that if Fiorot wins, it will be more a sign of Shevchenko's age than Fiorot's skill.

"I'm surprised that chef chenko is an underdog here. I really am too. I have to assume she won't close as an underdog."
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 18 of 100 18% 153 of 245 1 of 4 25% 2 0 0:49
Alexa Grasso 0 45 of 80 56% 193 of 233 8 of 12 66% 0 0 16:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 2 of 19 10% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 10 of 18 55% 36 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:28
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 2 of 13 15% 41 of 56 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 3 of 8 37% 29 of 36 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:57
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 5 of 35 14% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 16 of 26 61% 35 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:20
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 1 of 12 8% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:24
Alexa Grasso 0 2 of 5 40% 65 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:56
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 21 38% 54 of 71 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:25
Alexa Grasso 0 14 of 23 60% 28 of 37 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 18 of 100 18% 8 of 74 3 of 10 7 of 16 16 of 98 1 of 1 1 of 1
Alexa Grasso 45 of 80 56% 38 of 71 3 of 5 4 of 4 39 of 72 2 of 2 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 2 of 19 10% 1 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 10 of 18 55% 8 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Valentina Shevchenko 2 of 13 15% 1 of 8 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Alexa Grasso 3 of 8 37% 3 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 2
3 Valentina Shevchenko 5 of 35 14% 2 of 24 1 of 3 2 of 8 5 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 16 of 26 61% 13 of 23 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 22 1 of 1 3 of 3
4 Valentina Shevchenko 1 of 12 8% 1 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 21 38% 3 of 16 1 of 1 4 of 4 7 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 14 of 23 60% 12 of 20 0 of 1 2 of 2 13 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Angelo picks Alexa Grasso despite acknowledging that Valentina Shevchenko likely won the last fight. He sees improvements in Grasso's game between the two fights, noting she won exchanges, rounds, and even dropped Valentina in the second fight. He believes the wrestling gap is tightening and the speed gap is widening, and that Grasso is younger, faster, and more creative. He placed half a unit on Grasso at -115, recognizing it's hard for a champion to win back the belt but thinks Grasso gets it done.

Placed 0.5 units on Grasso at -115.
"I think Alexa gets it done here and I've got a half a unit on her at minus 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Big Brady acknowledges Shevchenko arguably won the second fight but notes her regression and Grasso's improvement. He also factors in the Mexican crowd and potential judging bias. He predicts Grasso wins a close decision.

"I got to go with grao... give me grao to win this fight and grao to win this fight by decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Daniel picks Alexa Grasso to win the trilogy, arguing that Valentina hasn't evolved enough and that long-reigning champions rarely reclaim their belts. He notes Grasso's faster hands, higher volume, and finishing upside, while worrying about Grasso being taken down and controlled. He believes history favors Grasso and that she will make bigger improvements.

"I think that history favors Alexa Grasso here and uh for that reason I'm picking her"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexa Grasso because her trajectory is still upward while Valentina Shevchenko's is declining. He notes Shevchenko has lost a step in defensive grappling since the Taila Santos fight, and Grasso's striking and grappling have improved significantly. He believes Grasso's speed, cardio, and youth will be the deciding factors.

Grasso by decision +175
"I'm going with grao here I I think cardio speed all of those things and the youth is really going to be the biggest answer"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Jeff Fox agrees with Daniel Vreeland, noting Shevchenko's decline had started even before facing Grasso. He mentions Shevchenko's mindset of thinking she won the last fight is not good. He goes with the ascending fighter who is much younger and already beat her.

"I know it's boring to say but I agree with everything Gumby says there yeah chevchenko every fight even before she started um even before she ran into Grasso you know the the decline had started"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host only mentions Kayla Harrison vs Juliana Peña as the other title fight, not Shevchenko vs Grasso.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko was a minus 800 favorite in the first fight and minus 160 in the second, now a plus 120 underdog. She was up 2-1 in the first before being submitted, and should have won the last fight if not for a bad scorecard. Expects Shevchenko to come even safer and cleaner, leaning on her wrestling to win on the scorecards.

plus 120 underdog
"I do have to lean with chevchenko here once again who was a minus 800 favorite in their first fight minus 160 favorite in their second fight and now finds herself as a plus 120 Underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso. He notes Shevchenko is aging at 36 and may carry negative energy from the controversial loss. Grasso is younger and improving, and he sees her capitalizing on Shevchenko's potential emotional state. He also mentions Grasso dropped Shevchenko in the second fight and could finish with a choke or win by decision.

Grasso by decision or late rounds finish with a choke
"I'm going with Alexa Gro shev shenko is just an aging fighter had a moment in the sun... I think she can capitalize more I think she's the more improving she's the younger fighter"
LOSS vs Alexa Grasso
Draw (split) (48–47, 47–48, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexa Grasso 1 84 of 203 41% 262 of 408 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:39
Valentina Shevchenko 0 80 of 179 44% 199 of 301 4 of 7 57% 1 0 8:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexa Grasso 0 12 of 41 29% 60 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Valentina Shevchenko 0 14 of 40 35% 25 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:20
2 Alexa Grasso 1 28 of 42 66% 86 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Valentina Shevchenko 0 15 of 29 51% 62 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:03
3 Alexa Grasso 0 4 of 15 26% 35 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
Valentina Shevchenko 0 9 of 18 50% 40 of 51 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:16
4 Alexa Grasso 0 20 of 49 40% 38 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
Valentina Shevchenko 0 19 of 43 44% 31 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:58
5 Alexa Grasso 0 20 of 56 35% 43 of 89 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:30
Valentina Shevchenko 0 23 of 49 46% 41 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexa Grasso 84 of 203 41% 54 of 151 12 of 22 18 of 30 51 of 160 31 of 35 2 of 8
Valentina Shevchenko 80 of 179 44% 61 of 158 6 of 8 13 of 13 67 of 158 6 of 8 7 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexa Grasso 12 of 41 29% 7 of 28 2 of 4 3 of 9 9 of 35 3 of 6 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 14 of 40 35% 9 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Alexa Grasso 28 of 42 66% 20 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 3 10 of 24 17 of 17 1 of 1
Valentina Shevchenko 15 of 29 51% 9 of 22 0 of 1 6 of 6 7 of 14 1 of 2 7 of 13
3 Alexa Grasso 4 of 15 26% 3 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 3 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 9 of 18 50% 6 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Alexa Grasso 20 of 49 40% 13 of 37 2 of 5 5 of 7 11 of 39 9 of 10 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 19 of 43 44% 17 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 2 18 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Alexa Grasso 20 of 56 35% 11 of 43 2 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 47 2 of 2 1 of 7
Valentina Shevchenko 23 of 49 46% 20 of 46 2 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Valentina Shevchenko despite her recent loss, believing she will wrestle heavy like she did against Maia. He notes her odds are the best since 2017 and compares it to Amanda Nunes getting her belt back. He acknowledges Grasso's skills but thinks Shevchenko's adjustments will lead to victory. He has no bet yet due to PTSD from UFC 293.

"I'm still picking Valentina despite the poor performance against Tyler despite her losing this exact fight just six months ago"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Shevchenko, arguing that she was winning the first fight until a mistake. He notes Shevchenko outlanded Grasso in most rounds and has more tools on the feet. He believes Grasso's takedown defense is still poor and that Shevchenko's experience and skill will prevail. He predicts a dominant decision, 49-46 or 50-45.

dominant decision
"I gotta go shift Janko here I'm gonna take her to win by a pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Cody picks Grasso at plus 140, emphasizing the five-year age difference and Shevchenko's decline. He points out that Grasso won the first round in their first fight, was out-striking Shevchenko, and submitted her after a spinning back kick. He believes the momentum was with Grasso and that Shevchenko's cardio may not hold up. He also notes the 90% rematch stat and says Grasso has a lot of merit.

Grasso wins in round 4 or 5 (mentioned as hedge opportunity); fight goes distance minus 135
"I'm kind of Flippy floppy on this Main Event... I'll probably go with that plus 140 on Gro as well."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Valentina Shevchenko despite acknowledging the historical trend of long-reigning champions losing immediate rematches. He notes that submission losses are easier to recover from than knockouts, and he believes Valentina's decline may be overstated. However, he admits his bitterness over missing the plus-200 line on Grasso influences his pick, and he hopes he is wrong because he would like to see the division move forward with fresh matchups.

missed plus-200 on Grasso, now plus-145; notes buy-low spot on Valentina at minus-170
"I'm gonna go with uh Valentina but I hope I'm wrong"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko had a clear grappling advantage in the first fight, controlling rounds 2 and 3 before getting caught in the fourth. She should make adjustments, trust her striking more to set up takedowns, and bank rounds early. Grasso may have improved takedown defense, but Shevchenko's strength and experience should prevail. I'm hesitant because of the similarity to Usman vs Edwards 2, but I still favor Shevchenko by decision.

"I still see the advantages in shevchenko's corner and I feel like she's going to be strong enough and maybe make the adjustments required... give me chefchenko and new to regain her title this weekend and I think she does …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Paul sides with Grasso as a slight underdog, citing Shevchenko's age (35) and recent vulnerability in fights against Taylor Santos and Jennifer Maia. He notes Grasso's youth (30) and improvement, and mentions a 90% stat where younger challengers who beat an older champion win the rematch. However, he is hesitant because the fight is in Vegas, not Mexico, and he may not bet it.

Fight goes distance minus 135; Shevchenko over 90.5 significant strikes; Shevchenko over 3 takedowns
"I'm going to slide side ever so slight with the underdog... I'll side with the champ ever ever so reluctantly."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Alexa Grasso, having switched from Grasso. He rewatched the first fight and notes Shevchenko was winning on all scorecards before the submission. He believes Shevchenko will focus on grappling and avoid spinning back kicks. He compares it to the Nunes-Pena rematch, suggesting Shevchenko will be more focused. He predicts a 48-47 unanimous decision for Shevchenko.

unanimous decision 48-47
"I'm going with Valentina Chef Shanker"
LOSS vs Alexa Grasso
Submission (face crank) R4 4:34 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexa Grasso 0 87 of 145 60% 167 of 228 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:24
Valentina Shevchenko 0 59 of 181 32% 182 of 308 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexa Grasso 0 26 of 51 50% 26 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Valentina Shevchenko 0 24 of 65 36% 32 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Alexa Grasso 0 12 of 22 54% 56 of 68 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:02
Valentina Shevchenko 0 7 of 36 19% 60 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Alexa Grasso 0 27 of 32 84% 53 of 59 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:22
Valentina Shevchenko 0 15 of 37 40% 70 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexa Grasso 0 22 of 40 55% 32 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Valentina Shevchenko 0 13 of 43 30% 20 of 51 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexa Grasso 87 of 145 60% 68 of 121 8 of 12 11 of 12 80 of 133 2 of 7 5 of 5
Valentina Shevchenko 59 of 181 32% 31 of 137 12 of 18 16 of 26 50 of 172 8 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexa Grasso 26 of 51 50% 14 of 37 5 of 6 7 of 8 25 of 48 1 of 3 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 24 of 65 36% 9 of 45 6 of 7 9 of 13 18 of 59 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alexa Grasso 12 of 22 54% 9 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 7 of 36 19% 6 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 3 7 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexa Grasso 27 of 32 84% 26 of 30 0 of 1 1 of 1 22 of 27 0 of 0 5 of 5
Valentina Shevchenko 15 of 37 40% 8 of 24 3 of 7 4 of 6 13 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1
4 Alexa Grasso 22 of 40 55% 19 of 35 2 of 4 1 of 1 22 of 38 0 of 2 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 13 of 43 30% 8 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 4 12 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, stating she is better everywhere and will push Grasso around. He notes that Grasso is not a dangerous fighter and that Shevchenko should have no issues. Angelo sees this as a relief fight for Shevchenko after the Talia Santos fight.

"Valentina's gonna sort of push her around Steamroller she's gonna be bigger stronger have the better striking have the better grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, citing her superior striking and grappling. He notes Grasso has struggled with grappling in the past, and Shevchenko can take her down at will and dominate on the mat. He predicts a third-round TKO for Shevchenko, dismissing the idea that Grasso can pull off an upset.

third round TKO
"give me a Valentina to win this fight give me Valentina to win this fight I'll say third round TKO for Valentina chefchenko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody believes Shevchenko is nearly unbeatable at 125 and that Grasso lacks the grappling to exploit her. He notes Shevchenko's takedown ability and well-rounded game will be too much. He expects a decision win for Shevchenko but won't bet the -700 moneyline; he would parlay it.

Valentina by decision; would parlay but not bet moneyline alone
"minus 700 like no way but I think he chased the Valentino by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Connor is confident Shevchenko wins, citing her ability to control distance and bully opponents in the clinch. He notes Grasso's poor range fighting and lack of feints or timing variation, which will make it easy for Shevchenko to counter or clinch. He believes Grasso's only path is a knockout in the pocket or a submission from her back, both unlikely. He mentions Shevchenko's declining athleticism but says Grasso's stylistic shortcomings are a death sentence.

Mentions Shevchenko opened at -550 and is now -737; Grasso +400 to +506. Implies Shevchenko is a parlay piece.
"It just seems like a death zone for Grasso. I think it looks like a pretty easily winnable fight for Valentina."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Jacob picks Valentina Shevchenko, but notes that Grasso's volume striking could cause problems early. He believes Shevchenko may need to use her wrestling to dominate. Jacob acknowledges a path for Grasso but ultimately sees Shevchenko as the more complete fighter.

"it is a chef shenko play pretty much all the way with all that said"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko is a fast, explosive striker with a good ground game. Grasso is a good striker but has struggled with takedowns. Shevchenko will likely take the fight to the ground and control Grasso, winning a decision or possibly a TKO finish.

"I think that chefchenko is a good enough Striker to remain competitive well to have her moments and the Striking wrong here but I'd be surprised if we don't see shevchenko look to get this fight to the ground"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul picks Shevchenko but prefers the over 4.5 rounds at plus money. He notes Grasso has improved grappling and has never been finished outside of a submission loss to Suarez. He sees the fight going the distance and thinks the over is a solid bet.

Over 4.5 rounds (+120); fight goes to decision
"I've been considering the over four and a half rounds it's like plus 120 plus 125 or even fight goes to decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko, believing her kicks will be the difference. He notes Grasso's boxing is good but she doesn't throw many kicks, and Shevchenko's top game could also be a factor. He predicts a decision win.

"I'm gonna go with Valentina Chef shenko here... I think the kicks are going to be the Difference Maker here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Zane agrees Shevchenko wins, emphasizing that Grasso's lack of distance management and predictable entries will lead to Shevchenko's clinch bullying. He notes Grasso is a good pocket boxer but cannot get there safely, and Shevchenko's takedown defense is weak but Grasso lacks the strength to exploit it. He sees Shevchenko's consistent game plan overwhelming Grasso.

"I think we are probably looking at the first stages of Shevchenko declining... but it still seems like a death zone for Grasso."
WIN vs Taila Santos
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 77 of 139 55% 234 of 309 3 of 5 60% 1 0 4:15
Taila Santos 0 55 of 102 53% 128 of 180 3 of 3 100% 3 2 8:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 16 62% 35 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Taila Santos 0 5 of 10 50% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:51
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 7 of 19 36% 64 of 81 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Taila Santos 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:40
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 17 of 22 77% 46 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Taila Santos 0 7 of 15 46% 10 of 18 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:21
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 29 of 59 49% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Taila Santos 0 28 of 56 50% 33 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 14 of 23 60% 52 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:36
Taila Santos 0 11 of 14 78% 42 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 77 of 139 55% 46 of 100 12 of 18 19 of 21 65 of 123 7 of 10 5 of 6
Taila Santos 55 of 102 53% 18 of 58 11 of 15 26 of 29 45 of 89 4 of 5 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 16 62% 5 of 8 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0
Taila Santos 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 7 of 19 36% 5 of 14 1 of 3 1 of 2 3 of 13 0 of 1 4 of 5
Taila Santos 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 3
3 Valentina Shevchenko 17 of 22 77% 6 of 11 3 of 3 8 of 8 16 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Taila Santos 7 of 15 46% 0 of 6 1 of 2 6 of 7 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 29 of 59 49% 20 of 48 6 of 8 3 of 3 27 of 56 2 of 3 0 of 0
Taila Santos 28 of 56 50% 11 of 35 6 of 9 11 of 12 23 of 49 1 of 2 4 of 5
5 Valentina Shevchenko 14 of 23 60% 10 of 19 0 of 0 4 of 4 13 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
Taila Santos 11 of 14 78% 2 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Shevchenko confidently, acknowledging she is the best in the division. He notes Santos is dangerous and the toughest opponent Shevchenko has faced recently, but still believes Shevchenko wins. He mentions the odds are wide but doesn't recommend a bet due to the high price.

"i still think valentina shivchenko wins this fight but there is a world where she doesn't and tyla has some success"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by TKO, expressing high confidence. He notes that Santos' best wins are against lower-level competition and that she lost to Mara Romero Barela. He believes Shevchenko is superior everywhere and will break Santos down, finishing her mid-to-late in the fight.

win by TKO
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko to win I'm gonna say Shevchenko actually finishes Santos I think it could be early but I'm kind of lean like mid to late."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody is confident in Shevchenko, citing her elite skills, wrestling advantage, and championship experience. He questions Santos' level of competition and output, noting she hasn't faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to win by decision.

Shevchenko by decision; over 3.5 rounds
"i likely end up going valentina on the top ticket but uh i i do have some hesitancy at this like exact moment"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, dismissing Taila Santos's chances due to her poor performance against Mara Romero Barella. He believes Shevchenko is in her prime and has never been dominated in any facet. He notes that Santos's best win is against Joanne Calderwood, who gets finished repeatedly, and that Santos's nerves against Barella indicate she cannot handle the pressure of fighting Shevchenko. He expects Shevchenko to impose her will and win decisively.

Shevchenko by decision at plus 600 (mentioned in context of Holm fight); not laying minus 600
"I got chefchenko to defend uh her belt but yeah I'm curious to see if uh Tyler Santos can bring the fight to her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko is the better fighter everywhere. Santos has not shown enough to suggest she can compete with Shevchenko's level. Santos struggled to finish lesser opponents and lost to Mara Romero Borella. Shevchenko has fought Amanda Nunes closely and is on another level. The line is too high to bet, but Shevchenko wins easily.

Over 3.5 rounds (-160)
"I just haven't seen anything yet that's going to make me say i don't know valentina isn't going to just do what she normally does."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul is confident in Shevchenko, calling her the most skilled female fighter. He dismisses Santos' resume and believes Shevchenko's wrestling, striking, and cardio are superior. He expects a decision win for the champion.

Shevchenko by decision; over 3.5 rounds
"valentina's focused enough... she's got the wrestling advantage... she's got the striking advantage... shevchenko decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, citing her elite level and experience. He expects Shevchenko to outstrike Santos at range, chopping legs and jabbing. He acknowledges Santos has power and could land some shots, but believes Shevchenko's defense and composure will prevail. He thinks the fight will be competitive but Shevchenko will win clearly. He criticizes the title shot timing for Santos, suggesting she needed another fight.

"i'm going to go valentina shevchenko um i don't mean to have a hot take you know i mean like a shocking news i'm going with valentina chefchenko here"
WIN vs Lauren Murphy
TKO (elbows and punches) R4 4:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 98 of 170 57% 132 of 204 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:04
Lauren Murphy 0 11 of 91 12% 19 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 20 of 39 51% 24 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Lauren Murphy 0 3 of 24 12% 3 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 17 58% 30 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Lauren Murphy 0 1 of 18 5% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 21 of 48 43% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Lauren Murphy 0 5 of 30 16% 6 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 47 of 66 71% 53 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:12
Lauren Murphy 0 2 of 19 10% 2 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 98 of 170 57% 62 of 126 19 of 24 17 of 20 72 of 137 6 of 8 20 of 25
Lauren Murphy 11 of 91 12% 4 of 73 3 of 13 4 of 5 11 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 20 of 39 51% 9 of 24 5 of 7 6 of 8 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 3 of 24 12% 2 of 21 0 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 17 58% 6 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lauren Murphy 1 of 18 5% 1 of 15 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 21 of 48 43% 9 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 7 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 5 of 30 16% 0 of 23 2 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 47 of 66 71% 38 of 56 5 of 6 4 of 4 25 of 38 4 of 6 18 of 22
Lauren Murphy 2 of 19 10% 1 of 14 1 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Shevchenko, calling her one of the best fighters ever. He highlights her technical striking, grappling, and championship composure. He notes that Murphy's path to victory is narrow and that Shevchenko can win anywhere. Angelo expects a dominant performance.

Angelo suggests less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a finish in round three. He also mentions betting on Shevchenko by stoppage in each round to guarantee profit.
"Valentina will go down as one of the best to ever do it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko has every advantage: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes Murphy is tough and has never been finished, but she has never faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to find a finish late in the fight.

fourth round tko
"i'm going to take valenciano to finish lauren murphy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody is confident Shevchenko wins anywhere the fight goes, citing her superior kickboxing, speed, footwork, and grappling. He notes Murphy's durability and never being knocked out, but believes Shevchenko's patience and skill will lead to a late stoppage, possibly becoming the first to finish Murphy. He leans over 2.5 rounds due to Murphy's toughness.

over 2.5 rounds (-120), Shevchenko inside the distance
"i think we're all on the same page that she's going to win the fight she can win this fight anywhere she chooses to"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, stating that Lauren Murphy's toughness and durability are not enough to overcome the massive skill gap. He notes that Murphy has never been finished, but Shevchenko's technique is superior. Levi believes it would take a fluke for Murphy to win, and he expects Shevchenko to win, though he is unsure whether it will be by decision or finish.

"give me valentina i guess the big question is inside the distance or by decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Jacob picks Shevchenko, noting she's running out of opponents and should fight Nunes again. He praises her judo and grappling. Jacob is confident Shevchenko wins easily.

Jacob agrees with less less on Monkey Knife Fight. He mentions knockout Kings and might include Shevchenko.
"Chevy's gonna win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko will eventually set up the crucifix position and finish Murphy. He notes that Murphy is durable and may survive early, but Shevchenko's pressure will increase. He likes the over 2.5 rounds at even money. He thinks Murphy's takedown success will be temporary and Shevchenko will adapt.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100; round 4 prop for Shevchenko
"i'm gonna go with chevchenko and i'm gonna call it fourth round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul picks Shevchenko confidently, noting her dominance and the large talent gap. He mentions she could finish inside the distance but also acknowledges she can be patient. He is unsure about betting the moneyline due to the price and considers the over 2.5 rounds, but has no bet yet.

over 2.5 rounds (considering)
"breaking news shevchenko is my pick um i think she wins inside the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Lauren Murphy, citing Shevchenko's vast superiority in all areas. He notes that Murphy is on a five-fight winning streak but lost her last two fights (split decisions) and is 38 years old. He expects Shevchenko to win by second-round crucifix TKO, similar to her fight against Andrade, as Murphy will likely shoot for a takedown and get reversed. He dismisses Murphy's chances entirely.

second round crucifix tko
"second round crucifix tko just like the andraj fight"
TKO (elbows) R2 3:19 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 32 of 39 82% 90 of 97 7 of 7 100% 1 0 5:11
Jéssica Andrade 0 10 of 15 66% 47 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 16 62% 26 of 32 5 of 5 100% 1 0 2:52
Jéssica Andrade 0 8 of 11 72% 31 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 22 of 23 95% 64 of 65 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:19
Jéssica Andrade 0 2 of 4 50% 16 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 32 of 39 82% 27 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 15 5 of 6 18 of 18
Jéssica Andrade 10 of 15 66% 2 of 6 8 of 8 0 of 1 4 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 16 62% 6 of 12 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 8 of 11 72% 0 of 2 8 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 2 18 of 18
Jéssica Andrade 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Shevchenko to win by fifth-round TKO. He notes Shevchenko's technical striking, cardio, and takedown defense will be key. Andrade is hittable and smaller, and Shevchenko can pick her apart from the outside. He thinks the bigger cage favors Shevchenko and expects a late finish or dominant decision.

Shevchenko by TKO in round 5
"give me chef chanko i'm gonna say she wins by a fifth round tko victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody picks Shevchenko but expresses concern about her recent reliance on grappling and low output. He notes Andrade's takedown defense and power but thinks Shevchenko's kickboxing and reach advantage will allow her to pick Andrade apart. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Shevchenko winning, possibly by decision. He also likes the over 4.5 rounds.

Over 4.5 rounds (-110)
"i think chevchenko coming down they're both former 135rs she had the success against amanda nunez who's just one of the best of all time she's got that grappling she's got that ground game she's got that cardio she's got …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel picks Valentina Shevchenko to win inside the distance, believing her technique will override Andrade's power. He notes Andrade is too open to getting hit and that Shevchenko can get the fight to the mat. He expects the fight to end under three rounds.

inside the distance, under three rounds
"i'm gonna go with valentina inside the distance here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

I think Shevchenko is technically superior and will outclass Andrade. She has a diverse striking game and can also take the fight to the ground. Andrade is a brawler with power, but Shevchenko's speed and technique should allow her to pick her apart. I like Shevchenko by decision at +140, and the over 2.5 at -185 is also a solid play as Shevchenko tends to grind out wins.

Shevchenko by decision +140; over 2.5 -185
"i think that uh andraj will have an issue with the uh the speed um the the technical striking abilities of shochenko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul picks Shevchenko to retain, citing her technical striking and reach advantage. He acknowledges Andrade's power and takedown ability but believes Shevchenko's footwork and distance control will be key. He notes the -425 price is steep but expects Shevchenko to win, possibly by decision. He also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a potential play.

Over 4.5 rounds (-110), Shevchenko by decision
"i think she should pick andrea to part in this spot i don't love the price at minus 425 i do think that this is the riskiest fight for shivchenko in a in a minute but uh shichenko retains her …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko by unanimous decision. He acknowledges Andrade's power and momentum but believes Shevchenko is a bigger, stronger, more technical striker with better cardio. He thinks Andrade will win the first round but Shevchenko will take over in the later rounds, using grappling to neutralize Andrade's offense. He notes Andrade is moving up in weight and may swing too hard early.

"i'm going with valentina shepchenko"
Katlyn Cerminara - Fight History
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 66 of 152 43% 99 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:52
Katlyn Cerminara 0 84 of 150 56% 122 of 189 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 22 of 32 68% 29 of 40 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:50
Katlyn Cerminara 0 31 of 48 64% 46 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Maycee Barber 0 24 of 56 42% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Katlyn Cerminara 0 22 of 48 45% 35 of 62 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:52
3 Maycee Barber 0 20 of 64 31% 30 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
Katlyn Cerminara 0 31 of 54 57% 41 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 66 of 152 43% 44 of 122 21 of 27 1 of 3 43 of 124 23 of 28 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 84 of 150 56% 59 of 121 18 of 22 7 of 7 44 of 107 36 of 39 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 22 of 32 68% 9 of 18 13 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 15 16 of 17 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 31 of 48 64% 26 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 24 20 of 22 2 of 2
2 Maycee Barber 24 of 56 42% 20 of 50 4 of 5 0 of 1 21 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 22 of 48 45% 12 of 37 6 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 42 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Maycee Barber 20 of 64 31% 15 of 54 4 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 56 4 of 8 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 31 of 54 57% 21 of 41 8 of 11 2 of 2 19 of 41 11 of 12 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Angelo slightly leans Maycee Barber due to her recent surge and well-rounded game, but warns that Katlyn Cerminara can drag opponents into a boring decision. He thinks Barber is too big a favorite. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds might be one of the safest bets on the card.
"I'm going to slightly lean Macy here but that's because of her recent surge she has basically won three fights in the time that Caitlyn has been away"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win, but is scared of the judges. He notes that Barber is younger, more physical, and has power, while Cerminara has zero finishes and low striking accuracy. He expects Barber's power shots to be the difference, but fears a split decision due to Cerminara's history of controversial wins.

"I'm taking Barber I think she does win but the judges scare the crap about out of me on this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody thinks Barber is overvalued and has shown poor takedown defense, while Cerminara is a smart fighter who can mix in takedowns and use her volume and movement. He believes Cerminara can win a close decision by outworking Barber.

"I think you would take the underdog with you look at her last number of fights I guess you know what I mean"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Daniel picks Barber but has no confidence. He notes Barber has power and gets violent when she closes the distance, but she has had controversial decisions and can be held down. He sees Cerminara as a gatekeeper who can outstrike with volume. Daniel is not interested at the price and calls it a no-confidence pick.

"my pick is Macy Barber"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has a reliable style of staying on the outside, using her jab and kicks, and maintaining high output. She has been out for over a year but is still capable of veteran performances. Barber is on a winning streak but has had controversial decisions and can be taken down and controlled. Cerminara's volume and optics should allow her to win rounds on the scorecards. I expect her to touch up Barber from distance and win a decision. The plus money is appealing.

Cerminara by decision
"I believe Catlin has the chops to go out there and pull off an upset she should be able to utilize her style that she's been famous with which is just staying on the outside and utilizing her output"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul agrees with the CF dog model but has some hesitation because Barber can be a brawler and has shown power. He thinks if Barber comes in aggressive, she could overwhelm Cerminara, but at plus money, he leans toward Cerminara.

"plus 180 CF do model you know taking one fight where she did what I think she's best at and saying that like well why didn't she do and like you know against Jessica I"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, dismissing Katlyn Cerminara as not good and noting her inactivity (last fight in October 2022). He highlights Barber's youth (25), power, and strength, especially since moving to flyweight. He believes Barber's finishing potential and physicality will be too much for Cerminara.

"I'm definitely going to go with Macy Barber"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 76 of 286 26% 76 of 286 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 98 of 279 35% 99 of 280 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 25 of 86 29% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 29 of 84 34% 29 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Manon Fiorot 0 23 of 94 24% 23 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 43 of 95 45% 43 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Manon Fiorot 0 28 of 106 26% 28 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 26 of 100 26% 27 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 76 of 286 26% 35 of 223 21 of 40 20 of 23 72 of 278 4 of 8 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 98 of 279 35% 58 of 225 16 of 28 24 of 26 96 of 273 2 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 25 of 86 29% 13 of 65 5 of 12 7 of 9 25 of 84 0 of 2 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 29 of 84 34% 15 of 64 4 of 10 10 of 10 29 of 82 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 23 of 94 24% 12 of 74 5 of 14 6 of 6 21 of 91 2 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 43 of 95 45% 29 of 76 7 of 12 7 of 7 43 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Manon Fiorot 28 of 106 26% 10 of 84 11 of 14 7 of 8 26 of 103 2 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 26 of 100 26% 14 of 85 5 of 6 7 of 9 24 of 96 2 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo leans Manon Fiorot, citing her superior striking, power, and takedowns. He acknowledges that Katlyn Chookagian knows how to win decisions and could steal a close fight, but believes Fiorot should be better everywhere. He advises no money or parlays on Fiorot.

"I am gonna pick man in here because she should literally be better absolutely anywhere but if anyone is going to steal a decision on this card it is Caitlyn chikagian"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Fiorot to win by decision. He highlights Fiorot's power advantage and ability to mix in takedowns, noting she took down black belts Jennifer Maia and Mayra Bueno Silva. Cerminara has low striking accuracy (35%) and poor takedown defense (54%). He believes Fiorot can land the more impactful shots and control the fight on the ground if needed.

"I like Fiora here quite a bit I like her to win by decision I don't really see a finish in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody is sold on Fiorot, calling her the best in the division not named Valentina. He notes her speed, power, and complete game, and that she has been rolling through opponents. He thinks Chookagian's volume lacks impact and that Fiorot is better in every aspect. Cody expects Fiorot to win and eventually challenge for the title.

"I think fioros the real deal"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Connor picks Cerminara, believing she has improved her boxing and ability to create memorable contact, making her a consistent round winner. He notes that Fiorot is often one-and-done with her striking and leaves openings, which Cerminara can exploit. He sees this as a natural gatekeeper role for Cerminara against a rising prospect.

"I think I'm gonna pick Chookagian. I think she's found her role as the gatekeeper to the elite in this division."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision. He thinks Fiorot can match or surpass Katlyn Cerminara's volume while minimizing strikes absorbed, citing Fiorot's 70% defense. He notes Fiorot has takedown defense and has landed takedowns herself. Levi respects Cerminara's experience and ability to win decisions, but believes Fiorot is the more promising fighter with fewer holes. He does not see value at -215 but picks Fiorot to pass this test.

Picks Fiorot by decision.
"my official pick is going to be uh manofio decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Fiorot does the same thing as Chookagian but with more power and efficiency. She has good takedown defense and can redirect momentum. Chookagian may try to grapple, but Fiorot is stronger in the clinch. Fiorot by decision at -110 is a better line than the moneyline.

Fiorot by decision at -110
"give me fiod give me fiod by decision which is -110 much better line than a money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul likely picks Fiorot but is not confident, noting that it could be a close striking battle. He mentions Chookagian's experience and that Fiorot is still improving. Paul thinks Fiorot should win but acknowledges it could be a split decision.

"likely rules but I can't say I got a whole lot of confidence in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot over Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) by TKO. He believes Fiorot's stand-up is superior and that she will hurt Chookagian with body kicks, then swarm for a TKO. He notes Chookagian's tendency for close decisions and Fiorot's youth and improvement.

TKO
"I'm actually going to go over TKO for man on Fiora here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Zane picks Fiorot, citing her size, power, and ability to make Cerminara uncomfortable. He notes that Cerminara has struggled against good athletes who can get to her, and Fiorot's strength and reach will pose problems. He acknowledges it's a coin flip but leans on Fiorot's power and the fact that Cerminara's recent wins have been against smaller opponents.

"I'm going to pick Manon Fiorot. I think that the fight is ripe for Chookagian to play spoiler, but I still don't trust her to pull that off against somebody who can match her for size and speed."
WIN vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 63 of 222 28% 71 of 230 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 169 32% 84 of 204 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 62 32% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 34 20% 15 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 61 39% 27 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 15 of 46 32% 28 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:01
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 19 of 99 19% 19 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 33 of 89 37% 41 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 63 of 222 28% 42 of 175 20 of 44 1 of 3 56 of 210 7 of 12 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 55 of 169 32% 28 of 124 8 of 23 19 of 22 49 of 156 3 of 7 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 62 32% 13 of 46 7 of 15 0 of 1 17 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 34 20% 5 of 28 1 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 61 39% 17 of 48 6 of 12 1 of 1 23 of 57 1 of 4 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 15 of 46 32% 7 of 34 2 of 5 6 of 7 13 of 41 1 of 2 1 of 3
3 Katlyn Cerminara 19 of 99 19% 12 of 81 7 of 17 0 of 1 16 of 94 3 of 5 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 33 of 89 37% 16 of 62 5 of 14 12 of 13 32 of 86 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.

"i think it's probably decision i think it's probably just going to be one of these try to keep ahead on the punch stats and stay to the outside type fights but caitlyn jake again rightful favorite and i uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.

Chookagian by decision +120
"don't overthink this fight you just take shook by decision and be on your way i mean she pretty much out volumes everyone that she takes on she only ever really gets finished by you know the jessica andrades or …"
WIN vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 72 of 177 40% 81 of 188 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:34
Jennifer Maia 0 52 of 171 30% 60 of 180 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 51 39% 21 of 53 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
Jennifer Maia 0 15 of 49 30% 17 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 23 of 90 25% 24 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 72 of 177 40% 44 of 136 21 of 32 7 of 9 68 of 171 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 52 of 171 30% 31 of 143 5 of 8 16 of 20 48 of 167 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 16 of 41 39% 8 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 1 of 1 6 of 8 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 51 39% 10 of 35 8 of 13 2 of 3 17 of 46 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 15 of 49 30% 9 of 40 2 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 36 of 85 42% 26 of 69 7 of 12 3 of 4 36 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 23 of 90 25% 15 of 80 2 of 3 6 of 7 22 of 89 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Angelo picks Cerminara based on her volume and pace, referencing their first fight where she outstruck Maia even while on her back for half a round. He expects Maia to grapple more but believes Cerminara's takedown defense and striking output will win another decision.

"caitlyn chicago's the pick i think this fight looks very similar to the first fight with a little more emphasis on grappling from maya"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Big Brady expects the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting, with Cerminara using her reach and staying on the outside to outpoint Maia. He criticizes Maia's fight IQ, noting she rarely shoots takedowns despite having good grappling. He thinks Maia could win if she wrestles but does not trust her to do so. He picks Cerminara by decision but is not touching the moneyline due to the close nature of the fight.

"jimmy choo kagan by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, highlighting her volume, speed, and improved grappling since the first fight. He doubts Maia's ability to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, noting Maia's takedown success is overblown. He expects Chookagian to win by decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28. He recommends the decision prop at -120.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"the minus 180 price tag yeah it doesn't look great but by decision which is where this is very likely headed that doesn't look bad to me whatsoever"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Daniel Levi leans toward Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) but is not confident. He notes that Chookagian's volume and movement at distance will likely edge two rounds, but Maia has a path to victory if she implements her grappling earlier. He mentions Maia's top control and that she won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. Levi thinks the line should be closer and could see Maia winning, but ultimately leans Chookagian.

"i would lean chew kegen to edge two rounds but like it's not gonna surprise me one bit if maya comes out here with a better game plan"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Cerminara's stick-and-move style frustrated Maia. He believes Cerminara's range and movement will be too much for Maia, who hasn't shown significant improvement since their last bout. He notes Maia's takedown success in the third round of their first fight but thinks Cerminara can escape similar positions. The host is confident in Cerminara winning a decision, citing her consistent performance against similar opponents.

"i'm going to be going with catelyn chicagan here and i do believe she wins this fight once again via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, expecting a similar fight to their first where Chookagian's volume and reach advantage win rounds. He notes Maia's path is takedowns, but doubts she can secure them early and often. He mentions Chookagian's improved ground game and Maia's inconsistent wrestling. He sees a decision win for Chookagian.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"i'll go to chicago and say the exact same thing plays out as we had seen before because i can't really trust maya to go in there and secure takedowns early and often"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) to win by decision, citing her superior stand-up and reach advantage (68-inch reach vs Maia's 64-inch). He notes that Maia had a close fight with Jessica Eye, who is on her way out, while Chookagian has beaten Cynthia Calvillo and Antonina Shevchenko. He trusts Chookagian to keep the fight standing and out-strike Maia at range, and he values her activity and recent grappling improvement. He predicts a unanimous decision (30-27).

"i'm gonna go with caitlyn chukagi in here she's got better stand up than jennifer meyer"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 127 of 292 43% 135 of 300 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 89 of 196 45% 129 of 238 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 37 of 91 40% 43 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 32 of 56 57% 36 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 76 46% 37 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 22 of 48 45% 58 of 86 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 55 of 125 44% 55 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 35 of 92 38% 35 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 127 of 292 43% 87 of 236 31 of 46 9 of 10 121 of 286 6 of 6 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 89 of 196 45% 60 of 162 24 of 29 5 of 5 85 of 192 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 37 of 91 40% 21 of 67 13 of 20 3 of 4 33 of 87 4 of 4 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 32 of 56 57% 17 of 38 13 of 16 2 of 2 29 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 76 46% 24 of 62 9 of 12 2 of 2 34 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 55 of 125 44% 42 of 107 9 of 14 4 of 4 54 of 124 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 35 of 92 38% 24 of 79 9 of 11 2 of 2 34 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.

"I will take viviana rougea to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i agree with you this is a spot i like from a monkey knife fight uh perspective and i would hit the double over"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.

dog or pass situation
"i'm going to pick vv as well i i do think it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.

Chookagian by decision
"i like it or 2k in here minus 135 i think is a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (54.5 for Chookagian, 37.5 for Araújo). Fight goes to distance at -400.
"the pick officially will be caleb chicago but again this is another interesting opportunity to look at it from a live betting standpoint"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with caitlyn chukagi in here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 69 of 230 30% 69 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 60 of 197 30% 60 of 197 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 27 of 72 37% 27 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 80 30% 24 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 17 of 71 23% 17 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 78 23% 18 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 69 of 230 30% 45 of 190 11 of 22 13 of 18 68 of 227 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 60 of 197 30% 31 of 134 17 of 46 12 of 17 59 of 196 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 27 of 72 37% 11 of 51 7 of 10 9 of 11 27 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 60 35% 11 of 42 4 of 11 6 of 7 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 80 30% 19 of 71 2 of 5 3 of 4 23 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 17 of 71 23% 8 of 51 6 of 15 3 of 5 17 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 78 23% 15 of 68 2 of 7 1 of 3 18 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 66 33% 12 of 41 7 of 20 3 of 5 21 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.

"the picks calvio by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.

"i'm gonna go with cynthia cavilla calvillo to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.

"I'm going to go with Tran to win this fight via decision as uh you know if this fight does primarily play out on the feet she could absolutely steal it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.

"going to go with cynthia calvio getting the unanimous decision win"
TKO (body punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 53 35% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Katlyn Cerminara 1 28 of 43 65% 62 of 79 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 53 35% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Katlyn Cerminara 1 28 of 43 65% 62 of 79 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 12 of 18 0 of 0 10 of 41 9 of 12 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 28 of 43 65% 11 of 24 11 of 12 6 of 7 14 of 28 8 of 9 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 12 of 18 0 of 0 10 of 41 9 of 12 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 28 of 43 65% 11 of 24 11 of 12 6 of 7 14 of 28 8 of 9 6 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Andrade despite the size disadvantage, citing her superior wrestling and power. He notes Chookagian has poor takedown defense and is often out-landed but wins decisions due to volume. He expects Andrade to close the distance, get takedowns, and land harder shots, winning a decision. He is wary of judges favoring Chookagian.

"give me androge to win here i'm going to say bye decision i don't think a finish is off the table"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade because she has fought at a higher level in strawweight and has the skills to pressure and beat Cerminara. He worries about Andrade's height disadvantage but believes she can take the fight to the ground and win the later rounds. He expects Andrade to win the second and third rounds, possibly losing the first.

"i think android gets it down against true kagan unless she shows up like a fat pudding and doesn't look good at fly away"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 73 of 108 67% 200 of 240 3 of 3 100% 4 0 10:36
Antonina Shevchenko 0 25 of 64 39% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 24 83% 70 of 77 1 of 1 100% 4 0 4:27
Antonina Shevchenko 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 21 85% 83 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:53
Antonina Shevchenko 0 5 of 6 83% 14 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 63 55% 47 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 54 31% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 73 of 108 67% 55 of 81 12 of 18 6 of 9 22 of 49 4 of 4 47 of 55
Antonina Shevchenko 25 of 64 39% 14 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 24 83% 17 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 21 85% 16 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 19
Antonina Shevchenko 5 of 6 83% 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 63 55% 22 of 43 9 of 14 4 of 6 20 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 54 31% 11 of 46 3 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Not touching from a betting perspective
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko I think she's a better striker I think she's going to land the harder shots as well the more convincing shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

"i'm gonna agree with you that's gonna be a split decision but i'm gonna edge antonina on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Cerminara by decision
"Caitlin shook a key in here she's longer she's rain jeah I think she's gonna get a job done against Antonina Shevchenko"
Expert Picks (3)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Valentina Shevchenko, stating she is head and shoulders above everyone in the division. He mentions her devastating body kicks and high kicks, and expects her to finish the elusive Kaitlyn Chookagian, possibly by fourth-round finish.

Valentina by fourth round finish
"Valentina's head and shoulders better than everyone in that division... I'm gonna say Valentina by fourth round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko by decision, noting her superior counter-striking, power, and overall game. He acknowledges the 'banana peel' theory but is confident Shevchenko will win. He is not willing to bet her at -1100 but expects her to dominate and win a decision.

Shevchenko by decision
"I'm still taking about Valentina Shevchenko to win by decision and I think she's gonna look damn good doing it catching - taking on the entries countering beautifully and just pretty much all pointing or all five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by dominant decision. He believes Shevchenko is too technical and has a different genetic makeup. He expects Chookagian to be hesitant and not engage, leading to a boring decision win for Shevchenko.

boring decision win
"I think she wins by a boring decision I'd say to be honest with you I think it's gonna be a stalemate and Qiu Qian isn't gonna want to engage Shevchenko is gonna win the fight by decision dominantly every single round"