Career Averages - Angela Hill
Career Averages - Ariane Carnelossi
Angela Hill - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Xiong (-210); Hill (+175)
Round 1
Former ONE champ Xiong (19-2) has been one of the top women operating outside the UFC for at least six years. She finally makes her Octagon debut against “Overkill” Hill (18-16), who has been in the thick of things in the UFC strawweight division literally since the beginning. Mark Craig draws his first referee assignment of the evening. Hill declines the glove touch offered by Xiong and they’re off to work, both women in orthodox stance. Xiong hurts Hill with a couple of punches, but Hill comes right back and lands a three-piece flurry that sits the Chinese fighter down for an instant, more off-balance than hurt. Hill pursues and meet Xiong by the fence, where she takes the Thai clinch and tries to drive some knees up the middle. Xiong shucks her off and lands a couple of hard punches, and they break away from the fence. Two minutes down in a frenetic first round and Hill again grabs the Thai plam against the fence, kneeing Xiong in the gut and then throwing a front kick to the head when Xiong breaks the clinch. They meet again and Hill looks for a guillotine, but can’t get it. Xiong sticks Hill with a hard one-two, then gets rocked by a lovely flying knee-to-punch combination. Ninety seconds to go and Hill steps into the pocket, meeting Xiong with another intercepting knee. Hill stalks forward and catches Xiong with another knee, then a front kick up the middle. Xiong is still throwing back, but is clearly taken aback by the American’s relentless attack. Xiong lands a spinning kick, then grabs a headlock at the 10-second clapper. The horn sounds.
10-9 Hill.
Round 2
Hill comes forward again to open Round 2 and Xiong gives ground, then plants and fires a one-two that glance off the guard. Hill keeps coming forward, landing a jab and a switch kick to the body. Xiong halts Hill’s advance with a nice jab to the body. Xiong meets Hill’s next advance with a spinning backfist that lands cleanly but without much on it. Hill dips a shoulder and drives her foe to the fence, then hooks a leg and dumps Xiong to the mat. She takes top position but can’t get anything underway before the bigger woman surges back to her feet. Xiong steps into the pocket and gets kneed to the face. Xiong comes up short with a pair of hooks and the action slows just a tick in the second half of the frame. Hill hops into the pocket with a jab and right cross, slips the counter and lands a nice right hook. Xiong steps forward and right into another intercepting knee to the body, but comes back with a pair of hard hooks. Xiong takes a level elbow in close quarters, then a knee to the face. The 10-second clapper sounds and Hill comes forward, slapping a glancing kick off Xiong’s face before the horn.
10-9 Hill.
Round 3
If our scorecards are any indicator, Xiong needs to do something big here, and she seems to agree, as she comes forward and lands the first significant blows of the round, a pair of solid hooks. Hill knees her up the middle and within seconds, it’s once again the American on the front foot. Xiong circles away, conscious that Hill is trying to walk her into the fence, and meets an advance with a flurry of hooks to the body. Hill backs off and flicks out a front kick to the belly. Hill slides into the pocket and is met with a glancing elbow to the face. Hill steps in, launches a flying knee that does not land cleanly, but follows up with a front headlock, which she releases quickly. The round is half gone and it’s still very much Hill’s fight, as she is marching forward fearlessly on the bigger woman and landing almost anything she wants. Ninety seconds to go in the round and Xiong is still looking to land the huge shot or shots that might save the day for her, but Hill is throwing, and landing, far more. Hill rushes forward and drives Xiong to the fence where she takes her opponent’s back standing, snaking one leg around for a single hook. She can’t get it, but the last20 seconds find her pursuing her hurt foe along the fence with a swarm of punches, looking for a late finish. The final horn sounds on an absolutely sensational showing by Angela Hill.
10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill).
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Jingnan Xiong via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AJ confidently picks Xiong Jingnan, citing her high-level boxing, power, and precision compared to Hill's volume without power. He notes Hill is 41 and slowing, while Xiong is younger (38) and has been inactive but dominant. AJ expects Xiong to land big shots and win a decision, though Hill has never been KO'd. He also mentions Xiong's wrestling defense and ground-and-pound as additional tools.
AJ picks Xiong Jingnan because she has good boxing, national team level, and is accurate with forward pressure. He thinks Xiong will win the battle of real estate and land more impactful shots, while Angela Hill relies on volume and movement. He notes Hill is 41 and coming off two straight losses, though he wants to see weigh-ins to confirm size. He calls it a tricky fight and a coin flip.
Angelo picks Xiong Jingnan, citing her pressure and aggression, and the likelihood of Chinese judges favoring the Chinese fighter. He notes Angela Hill is durable and a live underdog, but expects a decision win for Xiong. He sees more upside in Hill for DraftKings due to potential volume.
Angelo picks Xiong Jingnan despite her age and level of competition concerns, because her aggressive forward pressure and power will not give Angela Hill the space she needs to work. He notes that Angela Hill is a crafty veteran who could implement a grappling game plan, but he favors the home fighter who moves forward and bombs away. He acknowledges the competition gap but believes the style matchup favors Jingnan.
Angelo picks Xiong because she is a powerful striker who moves forward with wild looping punches. He thinks Angela Hill doesn't have the one-punch power to stop that forward pressure, and the judges in China will favor the aggressor. He is not betting on the fight due to the odds.
Big Brady picks Angela Hill but is hesitant, calling it a 'trap' fight. He notes Hill is older (41) but more active, while Jingnan is 38 and has fought only twice in four years. He believes Hill has a grappling advantage and has never been knocked out, but worries the UFC wants Jingnan to win in China. He says it's a 'dog or pass' fight and he'll probably stay away.
Cody picks Xiong Jingnan despite not loving it. He notes that Angela Hill is 41 and often loses close decisions, and that the fight is in China, which may favor the local fighter. He believes Xiong hits harder and is faster, and that Hill's volume may not be enough to sway judges. Cody expects a close fight but thinks Xiong will get the nod.
Connor picks Xiong Jingnan, noting Hill can make Xiong tired and could win with takedowns, but Hill's offense is ineffectual and she is not physically imposing. Xiong may hit harder in exchanges, similar to how strong punchers have punished Hill recently.
Jacob picks Xiong but is hesitant because of her age (38) and the trap fight potential. He notes that Angela Hill is durable and has never been knocked out, so if Xiong slows down, Hill could take over. He acknowledges that many people like Hill as a dog.
Lucrative James picks Angela Hill as a plus money underdog, questioning why Xiong Jingnan is such a big favorite. He notes Hill's durability (not finished since 2019), volume, and experience against top competition, while Xiong has fought lower-level opponents and may have lost her last fight under 1FC rules. He believes Hill can win a decision by outworking Xiong with volume and clinch work.
The host picks Xiong Jingnan over Angela Hill, noting both have Muay Thai bases but Jingnan lands with more emphasis, which will leave a lasting impression on judges. He expects Jingnan to win on the scorecards.
The host leans with Jingnan, believing she throws with more power than Hill and that her Muay Thai approach will edge her ahead. He notes both fighters are similar stylistically but expects Jingnan's power to be the difference, similar to how Lucindo beat Hill. He still expects a competitive fight and doesn't mind an underdog shot on Hill.
Paul picks Hill as a value play, noting that she has been fighting higher-level competition and that this is a step down. He acknowledges Hill's age and tendency to lose close decisions but thinks +165 is too high for a 50/50 fight. He is concerned about the China factor but believes Hill's experience gives her an edge.
The Guru picks Jingnan by TKO, likely via body shot to head shot combo. He notes Hill is durable but thinks body shots can put anyone away. He highlights Jingnan's power, body work, and combinations, while Hill lacks power but has volume and toughness. He expects a knockout rather than a decision.
The Guru picks Jingnan Xiong despite her age and debut, citing her elite boxing fundamentals, brutal body hooks, and takedown defense. He believes her power will be too much for Angela Hill, who is a volume point-fighter without real power. He expects Jingnan to time right-hand shots and land heavier punches.
The MMA Guru picks Xiong Jingnan to win by decision. He thinks the odds are too wide but still believes Xiong will win. He notes that Xiong is a boxer with offensive skills but poor defense, but Angela Hill is 41 and a striker who won't wrestle. He expects Xiong to pressure and land consistently, winning a decision.
Zane picks Xiong Jingnan as a gamble on Hill no longer being able to enforce enough offense. Hill is 41 and her close fights are turning into losses. Xiong is a slugger with limited wrestling, but Hill's offense is increasingly ineffectual.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 56 of 120 | 46% | 65 of 137 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Fatima Kline | 0 | 115 of 223 | 51% | 152 of 268 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 5:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Fatima Kline | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 42 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:01 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 28 of 51 | 54% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Fatima Kline | 0 | 37 of 82 | 45% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Fatima Kline | 0 | 53 of 97 | 54% | 68 of 116 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 56 of 120 | 46% | 34 of 85 | 15 of 27 | 7 of 8 | 44 of 103 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Fatima Kline | 115 of 223 | 51% | 89 of 189 | 23 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 71 of 167 | 15 of 20 | 29 of 36 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Fatima Kline | 25 of 44 | 56% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 25 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 13 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 28 of 51 | 54% | 17 of 35 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 38 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Fatima Kline | 37 of 82 | 45% | 21 of 62 | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 69 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 19 of 43 | 44% | 12 of 33 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Fatima Kline | 53 of 97 | 54% | 48 of 90 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 23 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kline (-470), Hill (+360)
Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Kline sticks a jab right off the bat. Hill tries to clinch and absorbs a knee and is then simply overpowered, as Kline takes the veteran down near the fence. Kline goes to work in her foe’s full guard. Hill lands an upkick as Kline hovers over her. Hill scrambles up but Kline keeps the pressure on, driving her into the fence. Kline with a nice knee in the clinch. The strawweights battle it out in the clinch, and Kline fires an uppercut on the break. Hill lands an effecitve low kick. Kline with a straight right at range. Kline punches into the clinch, land a knee and then separates. Kline catches Hill with a body kick. A front kick and uppercut lands for Kline, and then she takes Hill down when her foe tries an ill-advised spinning back kick. Kline is in half guard and lands a heavy elbow from above. Hill recovers full guard, but Kline continues to control position. Kline stands and eats an upkick before diving back into side control. Kline looks to set up a kimura late in the period. Kline gives it up and ends on top.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Round 2
Kline immediately lands a front kick. Hill fires off a right hand and applies pressure, but she eats a body kick for her efforts. Now Kline is piecing up Hill with punches, and it’s an accomplishment for “Overkill” to keep her feet after that salvo. Kline shoots from distance and pushes Hill into the fence. Kline lands an elbow on the break. Kline shoots again and shoves Hill into the fence. They move back to range and Kline lands a knee down the middle. Hill with a right hand. Kline crashes into the clinch and it’s Hill who knees the body effectively. Kline backs up Hill with a combination. Hill with a low kick. A high kick partially lands for Kline, who forces the clinch again. The strawweights battle it out in close, with Hill landing a knee before they break. Kline kicks the body. Kline has a combination countered by Hill. A right gets through for Kline and it’s Hill who initiates the clinch. Kline reverses late in the round and lands a couple knees before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kline
Round 3
A right lands for Hill early on. Kline with an outside leg kick. Kline sticks out her jab, but another solid right finds the mark for Hill. A counter right lands for Kline, who follows with another right in short order. The right hand lands again for Kline, who then stops Hill with a front kick down the middle. Hill pressures Kline near the fence, but Kline lands her jab. Kline tags the veteran with a combination. A left hook-right hand combination catches Hill on the way in. Hill forces the clinch with about 2:00 to go. Kline powers her adversary down to the canvas. Kline stacks Hill near the fence and drops a hammerfist. Kline clears the legs and looks to take the back as Hill stands. Hill is able to free herself and they’re at range with less than a minute to go. Kline subsequently powers Hill back to the mat and unloads with a flurry of ground-and-pound. Kline jumps on the back and stays aggressive. Kline falls off the back and the strawweights are tangled up on the canvas. They scramble up and Kline punctuates what should be a victory with a backfist and a head kick.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kline (30-27 Kline)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kline (30-27 Kline)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kline (30-27 Kline)
The Official Result
Fatima Kline def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Angela Hill despite her age (40), believing she is more technical and durable than Fatima Kline. He criticizes Kline's takedown attempts and notes her wins are over fighters no longer in the UFC. He is hesitant and considers a plus 3.5 round bet but does not place a moneyline bet.
Big Brady picks Fatima Kline, citing her youth (15 years younger) and Angela Hill's recent decline. He notes Hill looked poor in her last four fights and is slowing down at age 40. Brady believes Kline has a big advantage on the ground with vicious ground and pound and a good submission game, though he predicts a decision win. He mentions Kline trains with Erin Blanchfield and expects her to get the fight to the mat.
Cody picks Kline, citing her youth, speed, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Hill is slowing down at 41 and that Kline has good grappling and striking. Cody believes Kline can outstrike Hill or take her down. He mentions that Hill's cardio is fading and that Kline is the logical pick.
Connor also picks Kline, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Hill may be losing a step and that Kline is a very good grappler who can dominate from winning positions. He thinks Kline's youth and versatility give her the edge, but acknowledges Hill is still a tough test.
Daniel sees a clear mismatch, with Hill at 40 years old and on the decline, while Kline is a young, physical, and well-rounded prospect. He expects Kline to dominate and make a statement, similar to how Denise Gomes beat Tecia Torres.
Lucrative James picks Fatima Kline to win, citing her youth, full-time training, and well-rounded skills. He believes Hill is past her prime and struggles from bottom position, while Kline has great striking and grappling. He expects Kline to dominate on the feet and on the ground, possibly winning by decision or late submission.
Kline lands bigger shots against Hill, eventually lands takedowns, and grinds Hill out from top position. She gets her hand raised on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that women's favorites have been hitting at a high rate. He points out that Hill is past her prime and that Kline is younger, faster, and stronger. Paul thinks Kline will win by decision or TKO. He is confident in the pick and mentions that he has been backing favorites successfully.
The Guru picks Fatima Kline, citing her size, range, and finishing ability. He notes that Angela Hill is aging and has been less effective recently, with losses to Tabatha Ricci and Luana Pinheiro. Kline has shown consistent finishing ability and should be able to outmuscle Hill. The Guru predicts a decision win for Kline, possibly with a late finish.
Zane picks Kline, noting that Hill may be losing athleticism and that Kline is younger and more capable everywhere. He acknowledges that Hill is a tough veteran and a great clinch fighter, but thinks Kline's grappling and scrambling could be too much. He calls the odds too wide.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 72 of 151 | 47% | 100 of 187 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 5:37 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 64 of 110 | 58% | 80 of 129 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 27 of 68 | 39% | 28 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 30 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 38 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 42 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 72 of 151 | 47% | 56 of 128 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 57 of 130 | 11 of 17 | 4 of 4 |
| Angela Hill | 64 of 110 | 58% | 42 of 84 | 19 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 52 of 92 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 27 of 68 | 39% | 19 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 58 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 25 of 46 | 54% | 18 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 41 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 28 of 50 | 56% | 21 of 42 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 31 of 54 | 57% | 19 of 39 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 41 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Angela Hill | 8 of 10 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-190); Hill (+150)
Round 1
While the previous match had an age difference of eight years, this strawweight pairing may make UFC history as Lucindo (17-6, 4-2 UFC) is just about 17 years younger than ultra-active veteran Hill (18-14, 13-14 UFC). Someone with a mind for stats and figures should look into that. Taking responsibility of the match will be referee Chris Tognoni, who witnesses the “featured fight of the night” combatants think about bumping fists but ultimately not doing it.
Lucindo gets right in Hill’s face with short check hooks. Hill does not like them and considers clinching up, only for the younger woman to turn it against her and get a body lock from behind. Lucindo leaps onto Hill’s back, dragging her down from behind. Hill works right back up, fighting the hands clasped around her waist to she can break out of the position. Lucindo leans heavily on the elder stateswoman, and Hill trips her down for a second. When Lucindo climbs back up, Hill knees her in the face. They proceed to bang it out for a short spell until Hill elbows her way out, and Hill rushes back in behind her elbow strike. Hill dives down after a single, and Lucindo stands her up and just misses on a counter elbow. Hill scores, and Lucindo counters with a big left hook that makes Hill step back.
The Brazilian connects with a body kick right before Hill’s overhand right response lands, and the latter follows her punch with a front kick to the stomach. Lucindo sits down on her big right hand, getting Hill’s attention, and she follows with two punches down the pipe when Hill offers back a low kick. Lucindo crowds Hill and clubs her with multiple hooks, laying into the veteran with a series of punches that spur Hill into a takedown shot. Lucindo bullies “Overkill” to the fence and breaks off with an elbow, and she sways to avoid two quick punches up top. Lucindo brushes the midsection with her foot when spinning with a back kick, and her subsequent back fist fails. The momentum of the Brazilian allows her to tackle Hill to the floor, and when the horn sounds, she helps Hill back to her feet.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Round 2
The ladies do not need more than a second or two to engage in the second round, with Lucindo’s power the difference maker in their exchanges. Hill takes several punches and goes wild with a spinning wheel kick, turning to flow with a back fist then gripping hold of the younger woman’s neck to tighten up a guillotine choke while standing. Lucindo gets out of it, but not before taking an elbow on the dome. Lucindo does not back down, cracking Hill with clubbing hooks and forcing Hill to reel. Lucindo lands with two of three looping punches, and Hill sneaks in a right hand back. Lucindo pops Hill in the chops with her heavier left hand, and Hill has to clinch up to slow Lucindo down. Lucindo tries to muscle her way out, and only a Hill winging elbow allows Lucindo to get free.
The two women crash together throwing hands, and they bang heads together while doing so. This does not slow them, as Hill muscles Lucindo to the wall after landing strikes. Lucindo frees herself from the grip and leans into power punches. The Brazilian plants a spinning back kick from up close to the stomach, and she goes to the spin well with an elbow that Hill sees coming. Hill flicks out a few jabs, and she overswings and finds Lucindo ducking under to grab her from behind. Hill works her way to lean against the fencing, and Lucindo hangs on kneeing her until she kicks out Hill’s leg and wrenches her to the floor. Lucindo clings to her opponent’s back until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Round 3
The strawweights meet in the middle and throw hands, with Lucindo’s right driving Hill back out of the gate. Hill is quick to respond, but Lucindo’s fast-swinging hooks keep backing Hill off. Lucindo takes strikes on the chin and hurls back not only harder, but with more volume. Hill scoops up Lucindo’s legs suddenly to throw her to the floor, and Lucindo practically bounces off the mat to get to her feet. When Hill scores cleanly, Lucindo drills her square in the jaw and makes her take several steps back. Lucindo continues pressing forward, tackling the longtime vet to the floor and landing in side control. To remain in control, the Brazilian relocates into half guard. Hill sits up, and Lucindo elbows her in the back of the head. Hill keeps twisting in hopes of escaping,
Lucindo embraces the grind, wresting away any hopes of Hill staging a comeback. Hill tries to buck and kick off, and Lucindo puts her face on Hill’s face. Tognoni warns Lucindo for grinding her chin into Hill’s eye, which at one point in the sport’s history was legal as evidenced by Hall of Famer Mark Kerr’s past victory over Dan Bobish. Lucindo does not engage with much additional offense other than sporadic ground-and-pound to stave of Tognoni. He calls for them to do more, and Lucindo lashes out with elbows and punches as the match concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
Angelo leans Iasmin Lucindo, thinking she will bully her way to a win with powerful strikes and gritty wrestling. He notes Angela Hill is a crafty veteran with good speed and volume but no power. However, Hill could win by staying on her bike and avoiding the clinch. Angelo advises not betting on this fight.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Angela Hill, acknowledging she may be regressing but believes she still has more volume on the feet and improved takedown defense. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to a split decision. He is not betting on her, as he lacks confidence.
Connor picks Angela Hill, citing her improved fight management and veteran savvy. He notes that Lucindo is aimless and struggled when faced with a fighter she had to respect (Amanda Lemos). Connor believes Hill's pressure, volume, and clinch work will be enough to win a close decision, though he acknowledges Lucindo's speed and power could swing rounds.
The host notes Lucindo struggles when she can't get takedowns, and Hill has shown defensive improvements in grappling. He believes Hill can stop takedowns or get back to her feet quickly, then use her striking advantage to outweigh Lucindo's control and win on the scorecards by landing more damage.
The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an upset, citing her volume striking and clinch work. He believes Lucindo can't finish Hill and that Hill's activity will win her a close decision. He notes Hill has been robbed before but expects her to get the nod this time.
Zane leans toward Lucindo, arguing that Hill cannot put the fear in Lucindo that Lemos did, allowing Lucindo to be more proactive. He notes that Lucindo is faster and more dynamic than Hill's recent opponents, and that Hill's wins over similar fighters (Sosa, Pinheiro) were close. However, he admits it could easily be a split decision and that Hill's experience is a factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 86 of 158 | 54% | 103 of 176 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 70 of 138 | 50% | 77 of 146 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 28 of 46 | 60% | 40 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 42 of 70 | 60% | 46 of 74 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 35 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 17 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 86 of 158 | 54% | 40 of 96 | 40 of 55 | 6 of 7 | 63 of 131 | 16 of 19 | 7 of 8 |
| Ketlen Souza | 70 of 138 | 50% | 41 of 101 | 19 of 23 | 10 of 14 | 61 of 128 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 28 of 46 | 60% | 10 of 27 | 17 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 28 | 11 of 12 | 5 of 6 |
| Ketlen Souza | 15 of 27 | 55% | 8 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 42 of 70 | 60% | 22 of 43 | 17 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 64 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 32 of 65 | 49% | 21 of 49 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 7 | 27 of 59 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 16 of 42 | 38% | 8 of 26 | 6 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Ketlen Souza | 23 of 46 | 50% | 12 of 33 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hill (-112), Souza (-108)
Round 1
Continuing on the prelims is what is becoming a strawweight tale as old as time. The savvy veteran Hill (17-14, 12-14 UFC), who holds a litany of record at 115 pounds including the most victories and defeats, is forced to take on a less-experienced rival for a possible torch-passing moment. While this will be the 20th pro outing for Souza (15-4, 2-1 UFC), it may serve as her own toughest fight, even though the same cannot be said about her opponent. There is not a glove touch to get started, with the women so eager to get going they nearly step over referee Mark Smith’s call to action. Hill immediately gets behind her favored jab, and she pressures the Brazilian around while dodging a spin kick. Hill works the body from up close with knees, pressing Souza to the fencing and taking a few back. Hill’s are cleaner and heavier, and she decides to break out of the clinch and find another angle. A few jabs out the outside score for Hill, who eats a one-two that drives her back. Hill goes to the body with a slapping kick, and she clips Souza with a long right hook and a scooping left. Souza misses on the counter, and the two shoot in at the same time and bang their foreheads together. Souza sticks out a front kick and blocks ahead kick in response, and the two clash together once more. Hill rolls with a punch to come out with a right over the top, and she digs a left to the solar plexus as she ties her opponent up. Hill times knees to the belly, punching her way out of the clinch but standing in the pocket when Souza wants to throw down. Souza comes out swinging a bit too aggressively, and “Overkill” surprises her with a double that plants the Brazilian on the mat. Souza turns to her knees so she can stand up, and Hill batters her in the side with numerous knees as her corner is thrilled she is listening to their instructions. Hill sneaks as hook around to partially take the back, and she hangs on clubbing Souza from behind until she is swept and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 2
The strawweights meet in the middle trading kicks to start the round, and Hill uses head movement and footwork to tag Souza and eat counters. Hill goes to the body and then tries to go up top, and leg kick chops at the knee. The ladies stun one another with straight punches, and the bridge of Hill’s nose is showing a little damage. Hill slips a punch to bang Souza on the side of the head, and she fakes a level change to come up with a left hook. Hill fakes a jumping switch kick and goes after a takedown, forcing Souza to respond to the attempt fully. Hill sets up a clinch to drive knees through the guard, and Souza shakes her off and blocks a head kick. Both women slip in short right hooks, and Souza follows one with a knee to the body. Souza uses a right hand to open up a head kick, and Hill blocks it just in the nick of time. Souza spins with a back kick that plants firmly on the vet’s ribs, and she keeps targeting the body with additional punches. Hill glides back and gets Souza’s attention with an overhand right, and a second makes the advancing Souza take a few back steps. Hill takes low kick so she can reply with a side kick, and Souza sees an opening and spins with a wheel kick. Hill lets it glance past her so she can spin with a kick to the side, and the two are having some fun in there. Souza leaps forward with a huge left hand, and Hill’s chin is made of sterner stuff because she does not only not budge, but she keeps coming forward and even rings Souza’s bell with a spinning elbow. Souza pushes out a front kick and takes a flush knee at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza
Round 3
Leg kicks from both ladies open up the final frame, and Souza spins with one failed kick to aim a wheel kick up top. Hill dodges it and shoots for a takedown, and Souza defends with a guillotine choke but hits her back and does not have the leverage for it. Hill stays tight on top of the Brazilian, preventing her from any sweep, scramble or get-up. Souza holds up a knee shield, so Hill is in an unusual partial half guard situation, and she pries Souza’s legs open to find a home for her striking. Souza kicks her off and bursts to her feet, and Hill defends with a choke that has nothing to it. Souza gets away and follows a few jabs with a right hand. Hill kicks low and evades a huge right hand, with Souza aiming big firepower around the midpoint of the last round. Souza pitches out a few calf kicks, and she freezes Hill with a right hand but gets caught with two coming back her direction. Souza keeps her distance with probing kicks, and she stays far enough away to not get hit with a jumping switch kick. Hill swarms her way forward, and both women land flush one another. Hill goes to the body and head, and she jumps in with a knee that bangs into the forehead. “Overkill” punches her way into a takedown effort, but Souza shuts it down and forces them back to kickboxing range. Hill rushes after her, hands flying, and Souza’s defensive efforts keep her largely safe. Hill wraps a left around the guard and digs a kick to the belly, and Souza bends over and throws Hill to the floor by her ankle. Hill climbs back up, pushes through a spin kick, drills Souza with a right hand while the Brazilian is attempting a jump knee, and the strawweight tilt comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Souza (29-28 Souza)
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Ketlen Souza via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ketlen Souza as an underdog, citing her pressure fighting style. He notes that Angela Hill does not like backing up and Souza is a known pressure fighter who will move forward and bomb away. He worries about Souza's cardio but believes she can hold Hill against the cage and drag her down. He also mentions a potential prop bet on Souza to win one round at plus money.
Big Brady picks Hill by decision, arguing Hill has improved grappling and striking volume. Souza's only win was against a chinny opponent, and Hill has never been knocked out. Hill has the advantage in both striking and grappling, and Souza has been finished in all four losses.
Hill's experience and striking are matched against Souza's aggressiveness and submission ability. Hill will stop most takedowns and get ahead on the striking numbers, winning on the scorecards. A pick'em fight.
The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill over Ketlen Souza, though he initially hesitates. He notes Souza's win over Yasmin Jauregui but questions her losses to Manon Fiorot and Josiane Nunes. He highlights Hill's toughness, experience, and wins over solid opponents, and believes Hill's consistency will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 112 of 216 | 51% | 140 of 245 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 101 of 239 | 42% | 140 of 280 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 42 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:07 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 44 of 79 | 55% | 51 of 87 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 44 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 47 of 90 | 52% | 54 of 97 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 39 of 101 | 38% | 54 of 116 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 112 of 216 | 51% | 66 of 152 | 43 of 61 | 3 of 3 | 88 of 182 | 19 of 26 | 5 of 8 |
| Angela Hill | 101 of 239 | 42% | 82 of 215 | 8 of 13 | 11 of 11 | 88 of 219 | 10 of 14 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 21 of 47 | 44% | 10 of 34 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 37 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 27 of 62 | 43% | 18 of 52 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 53 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 44 of 79 | 55% | 27 of 52 | 14 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 62 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 7 |
| Angela Hill | 35 of 76 | 46% | 29 of 67 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 68 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 47 of 90 | 52% | 29 of 66 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 42 of 83 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Angela Hill | 39 of 101 | 38% | 35 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 37 of 98 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ricci (-112), Hill (-108)
Round 1
While Magny-Morales was one “passing of the torch” match, this co-main event is set up to be one as well. At the tender age of 39, Hill (17-13, 12-13 UFC) has won four of five and is trying to make one final push to get into top contention at 115 pounds. Ricci (10-2, 5-2 UFC) saw her own momentum fall away after a close loss last year, but a razor-close victory in May got her back in the win column. While the two are on the outer edge of the top 10, it is a must-win encounter for either woman. Referee Keith Peterson serves as the official for the nonsense-free strawweight tilt, and the ladies have no interest in touching gloves. Ricci marches forward and gets caught with a right hand early, and she pushes in to tie Hill up against the fence. Hill uses her elbow to try to frame off, and Ricci gets her underhooks in pursuit of a body lock takedown. Hill uses knees to fight her way out, and she eats a right hand on the outside. Ricci blasts forward to attack, landing a few shots, and Hill lands one back before they clinch up again. Ricci tries for another takedown, but Hill stands her up as they trade knees. The two break, and Hill pushes off a front kick when she gets space. Ricci connects at the end of a right hand, and she lands a second and ducks under a Hill counter to change levels. Hill defends it and breaks free, but not before absorbing a flush knee to the breadbasket. Both ladies land one big right hand, and Ricci resets and races at her, attacking with a tornado of offense. Hill responds and pushes her away, and she ducks down to smack “Baby Shark” with an overhand right. Ricci blitzes once more, and Hill is out of harm’s way in time. Ricci lands a low kick and punches her way in, although Hill strafes to the side to disrupt the forward momentum. Ricci nonetheless runs straight at her to the her up, ignoring a knee up the middle to try for something. Hill stops a takedown before it materializes and separates. Hill sneaks a right hand around a jab, and she spins with an elbow but Ricci is out of range. Hill targets the body with three punches, and Ricci walks her down and tries to slug it out. Hill hits her back and decides to initiate the clinch, and they jockey for position while Hill tries for her own trip takedown. Ricci stifles it and gets kneed in the belly, and Hill targets the same spot with another as they split apart. They let frantic hands fly right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Round 2
Ricci pushes the pace right out of her corner, not slowing down even when Hill punches her in the face. Ricci uses her momentum to sling Hill to the mat, and she drops down fierce hammerfists and is drilled with an upkick. Ricci lowers herself down, and Hill sets up a triangle choke to keep her honest. When Ricci backs off, Hill powers her way back to her feet, and Ricci is quick to jam her up against the fencing. Hill turns her about and breaks free, tossing out a head kick that is nowhere near the target. Ricci gathers a head of steam and rushes forward, and Hill backs her off with a short combination ending with a body kick. Ricci lands two punches, Hill scores back, and Ricci is right there to keep the pressure on. Ricci looks for an up-elbow as she throws everything at her opponent, and Hill catches her with a right hand and ducks down to grab hold of her lead leg to take her off-balance. Hill catches a kick to drag Ricci to the wall, but she cannot hold it. Hill targets the body with a knee, and when Ricci backs off, Hill kicks her in the ribs. Ricci sprints into clinch range, and Hill lines up a Thai clinch to knee her in the midsection. Hill breaks off with a body kick, and she jabs and leans to avoid a knee flying at her melon. Ricci scores a one-two, and Hill responds with a push kick. A leaping elbow strike from Ricci brushes off the guard, and the two are mixing it up and not letting either get an upper hand. Hill drops down and comes up with a right hand, and Ricci stands right in front of her and bops her with an uppercut. Hill sits down on a hard right hand, and Ricci answers her back immediately. Hill connects with another clean right, and Ricci wants to slug it out until she shoots in for a single and hits it. Hill ties her up with a one-armed guillotine until Ricci is able to wrench her neck out. Ricci sits up, and Hill hacks with elbows. Ricci gets pushed off with upkicks, and the two meet in the clinch and start blasting one another like Frye vs. Takayama until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ricci
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 3
The two women come out firing immediately, with Ricci running into the melee. Hill drills her with a spinning elbow, forcing Ricci to take a back step. Ricci takes a quick count of her teeth and throws back, with Hill answering and reddening her nose up with more powerful strikes. Ricci targets the body with a kick, and Hill comes over the top with a right hand and tries for an up-elbow. Hill shoots for a takedown, and Ricci turns her around and puts Hill on her seat. Hill kicks off Ricci’s chest to send Ricci flying, and they both get back up. Ricci plods forward, and Hill stands right in the pocket and trades until Ricci’s forward movement results in a clinch. Ricci slows things down as she stomps Hill’s toes and offers the occasional knee, and Hill knees her back until they split up. Ricci beats Hill to the punch in an exchange, and Hill appears to be slowing while Ricci is just as amped up as ever. Hill buzzes the hair with a spinning elbow, and she drives a right hand on the chin and a front kick. Ricci crashes forward to strike, and Hill intercepts her with an uppercut and backs off to take a breath. Hill eats a left hand and counters, and she kicks Ricci in the ribs. Ricci lands a head shot and then one to the body, and Hill kicks her in the guts. Ricci shoots for a low double, and Hill defends and latches onto Ricci’s neck. Ricci pulls her head out of danger, and Hill kicks her in the ribs. Even with Hill appearing winded, she still outlands Ricci and draws some blood with her fists. Hill kicks the body and then spins with an elbow that grazes the cheek. Ricci scores a single leg kick, and she follows it with a one-two. Hill throws back, knocking Ricci back with a hard right hand and uppercuts Ricci in the chin for good measure. Hill jumps forward with a knee, and as Ricci rushes at her, Hill knees her twice more. Ricci backs off, and Hill kicks her a few more times until this wild and crazy strawweight scrap comes to a close. It’s anyone’s guess who will get their hand raised after that frenetic 15-minute fracas.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Ricci)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
The Official Result
Tabatha Ricci def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Angela Hill, citing her veteran savvy, length, cardio, and experience. He notes that Hill has found a late-career resurgence at 39 and is a high-IQ striker who can avoid takedowns and exploit rookie mistakes. He mentions that Ricci went 1-for-10 on takedowns in her last fight and was outstruck, but judges favored her pressure. He thinks Hill can steal a decision and recommends the over 2.5 rounds.
Cody picks Ricci because of her youth, athleticism, and superior grappling. He believes she can take Hill down and control the fight, as Hill is not as elusive as other grapplers Ricci has faced. He notes Ricci's path to victory is clear: mix in takedowns and control time. He also mentions that Hill is 39 and may not have the same durability.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tabatha Ricci but is not confident due to inconsistent judging. He notes Ricci's improving volume and jiu-jitsu advantage, while Hill has been on a resurgence. He thinks Ricci might win by split decision or submission, but acknowledges the fight could be a robbery.
Brevin picks Angela Hill, noting she has entered her prime at 39 with sharp striking and improved grappling. He thinks her length and volume will be key. He acknowledges Ricci's grappling advantage but believes Hill can defend takedowns and win on the feet. JP disagrees, picking Ricci by decision, citing Hill's 12-13 UFC record and age. He thinks Ricci's grappling, though not submission-heavy, will be enough, and notes Hill goes to decision often but doesn't win dominantly.
Paul leans towards Hill because of her high volume striking and improved grappling. He thinks Hill can outwork Ricci on the feet and avoid takedowns. He notes the fight is a coin flip but sides with the steam on Hill. He also mentions that Hill's experience and recent submission win show her grappling improvements.
The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill because he thinks she is a much better fighter than Tabatha Ricci. He worries about Ricci holding her down but believes Hill's striking and experience will prevail. He notes Hill's recent win over Denise Gomes and expects a decision victory.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 17 of 60 | 28% | 25 of 77 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 28 of 79 | 35% | 39 of 91 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 8 of 34 | 23% | 15 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 10 of 40 | 25% | 11 of 41 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 17 of 60 | 28% | 11 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 54 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 28 of 79 | 35% | 19 of 64 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 7 of 20 | 35% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 8 of 34 | 23% | 8 of 29 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 10 of 40 | 25% | 5 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 20 of 45 | 44% | 11 of 35 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hill (-135), Pinheiro (+114)
Round 1
It’s on with the main card. Two strawweights on the outside of the top 15 looking in—the UFC does have one of them ranked—will come to blows in hopes of making that next big step towards contention. Pinheiro (11-2, 3-1 UFC) will be looking to get back into the green after her last outing saw her nine-fight win streak snapped violently. On the other side of the equation, divisional staple Hill (16-13, 11-13 UFC) has won three of our last four and is on a solid run despite turning 39 in January. Referee Herb Dean is ready for the long haul, and the women are too as they get right to it with no consideration of a glove touch. Hill feints her way forward, flicking out a front kick to test the waters and find her range. Pinheiro circles to both directions, and Hill cuts her off and pitches out a high kick that is several feet away from her intended target. Hill leaps forward with two right hands, both still too distant. Hill closes in, but the first actual strike landing is a calf kick from the Brazilian. Both women throw and land simultaneous right hands, and Pinheiro keeps her left hand ready to release. Hill puts the ball of her foot on Pinheiro’s torso, and she continues to walk Pinheiro down winging a right hand. The two women stick out jabs, and Pinheiro shoots for a takedown but cannot get anywhere. Hill backs away from a right hand, and she meanders forward and tosses out a head kick that is inaccurate. Pinheiro stick out a jab that marks up Hill’s nose, and they rush towards one another and start trading. Pinheiro looks to mix things up and throw Hill to the floor, but “Overkill” keeps her balance and pushes Pinheiro back to the fencing. Pinheiro jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and Hill threatens back with a Von Preux shoulder choke all while looking to establish better top position. Pinheiro releases her choke so that she does not get countered, and Hill lands a solid right hand before getting pushed off by Pinheiro’s flailing legs. Pinheiro gets off an upkick or two, and Hill pounces and bops her in the noggin with a right hand. Hill gets backed off with upkicks, and she connects with two mean standing-to-ground punches. Pinheiro jumps back to her feet, and Hill hurls her back down and lands a few strikes before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 2
Pinheiro races out of her corner to engage, only for Hill to jab her back. Pinheiro loads upon on a power right hand, and when that misses, she leans back as one from Hill buzzes past her as well. Pinheiro splits the guard with a front kick, and Hill flirts with a single-leg takedown and comes over the top with a right. Pinheiro pirouettes with a back fist, and Hill’s guard is high enough to protect her. Pinheiro uses her jab effectively to score, and she times a right hand over the top. When Hill crowds her, Pinheiro lands hard again and grins to celebrate her handiwork. Pinheiro spins with a back fist, and Hill sees it coming and ducks it so she can throw Pinheiro to the ground. Pinheiro grabs the fence a few times to stay afloat, and Dean warns her for the fouls. The two fight for position in the clinch when Hill’s takedown comes up short, and Hill stifles a trip that Pinheiro offers back. Pinheiro escapes the clinch, and Hill gives chase with a front kick and a stabbing jab that snaps the head back. They both go after high kicks, and Hill tries a jumping switch kick and a high kick that both miss the mark. Hill misses with a head kick, and she knocks Pinheiro off her feet with a lunging jab. Pinheiro hops back up, and Hill is on her with pressure and strikes. Pinheiro shoots for a takedown, and Hill stops it and clings to a guillotine choke that she uses to knee the Brazilian in the head. Pinheiro escapes, and Hill runs at her and kicks her in the face. Pinheiro swings back and lands a left hand that cuts Hill’s eye, and Pinheiro shoots for a takedown.
Hill snatches up the neck while stuffing the attempt, and she sits down with a guillotine choke. When they hit the ground, Hill sweeps to claim the mounted guillotine, and the choke is crushingly tight. Pinheiro, who holds most of her finishes by submission while never suffering a submission loss, taps out.
Hill punts an 11-fight consecutive streak of fights going the distance with her tapout victory, and she is so excited when Dean intervenes that she does not know what to do with her hands. Hill figures it out and offers to help the defeated Pinheiro back to her feet, and she jumps into the arms of her corner to celebrate her first-ever submission win.
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Luana Pinheiro R2 4:12 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angela Hill is a veteran with high fight IQ, good speed, volume, and versatility, though she lacks power. Luana Pinheiro is a powerful striker with solid takedowns and BJJ, but Hill's experience and game planning should prevail. Hill recently showed she can wrestle, and Angelo expects her to stick to a game plan and win a decision.
Cody highlights Pinheiro's pattern of coming out fast and then gassing, as seen against Amanda Lemos and Randa Markos. He believes Hill's technical striking, footwork, and cardio will allow her to weather the early storm and take over in later rounds. Cody also notes Hill's improved wrestling, which she used to get five takedowns against Denise Gomes.
Pinheiro is effective early but slows down, and Hill has improved her takedown defense and getups. Hill's volume and cardio advantage will allow her to piece up Pinheiro in the later rounds. Hill has derailed prospects before and should keep the fight standing. Expects Hill to win a decision.
Paul expects Hill to use her veteran savvy and volume to outwork Pinheiro, who has a history of gassing after a fast start. He notes Hill's technical striking and footwork will allow her to capitalize as the fight goes on. Paul also mentions Hill's recent use of wrestling as a new wrinkle.
The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill over Luana Pinheiro, calling Pinheiro 'quite [__]'. He argues that Hill has a misrepresented record with several robbery losses, and that she is difficult to finish. He believes Hill will outwork Pinheiro over three rounds and win a decision, as Pinheiro barely scraped by against Michelle Waterson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 76 of 120 | 63% | 96 of 153 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 1 | 8:03 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 62 of 133 | 46% | 111 of 203 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 23 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:42 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 23 of 32 | 71% | 48 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 37 of 53 | 69% | 42 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 46 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 31 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Denise Gomes | 0 | 6 of 30 | 20% | 17 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 76 of 120 | 63% | 37 of 76 | 37 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 40 of 68 | 33 of 44 | 3 of 8 |
| Denise Gomes | 62 of 133 | 46% | 29 of 91 | 25 of 33 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 97 | 27 of 35 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 16 of 26 | 61% | 7 of 16 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 4 |
| Denise Gomes | 23 of 32 | 71% | 12 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 37 of 53 | 69% | 17 of 32 | 18 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 36 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Denise Gomes | 33 of 71 | 46% | 14 of 47 | 13 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 21 of 58 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 23 of 41 | 56% | 13 of 28 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 4 |
| Denise Gomes | 6 of 30 | 20% | 3 of 25 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 26 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gomes (-125), Hill (+105)
Round 1
The final women’s bout, booked at strawweight like Moura-Ruiz, features two women who comfortably made weight. Storied veteran Hill (15-13, 10-13 UFC), who looks for UFC win no. 11, faces off against a woman in Gomes (8-2, 2-1 UFC) who is almost 15 years Hill’s junior. Youth versus experience will be on full display for the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Fernando Portella will be the arbiter of this encounter. There is no plan for a glove touch, and instead Gomes would rather throw hands and feet right out of the gate. Hill checks a calf kick and her forward momentum bowls the Brazilian over. Hill lands on top, but only for a few seconds until the Parana Vale Tudo fighter powers her way back to her feet. The two clinch up, and they pepper one another in the body with knees. Hill loads up on her knees to the breadbasket, and Gomes considers hitting a trip but ends up falling to her back. Hill muscles her down to her knees when Gomes looks for a way up, and Hill works to take the back and hangs on the younger woman. Gomes grabs the glove a few times to get out of the bad position, and Hill breaks away and tags her once on the way out. The two trade hands, and Gomes succeeds in tripping Hill and dumping her on her face. They both get back up, and Hill counters her with a throw of her own. They explode upright again, and Gomes loads up on power punches that ring Hill’s bell repeatedly. Hill leans on heavily to clinch and hold onto Gomes, thereby shutting down the swinging fists that smack her in the face. Hill drives her knees in the solar plexus again and again, until Gomes has had enough of this and pushes her off. Hill resets and pushes out a front kick, and Gomes swings at air when this meets her. Gomes scores a big right hand, and Hill backs off but is snagged and throws to the mat. Gomes latches onto Hill’s left arm for an armlock of some kind, and she considers a kimura or an armbar, as she sits on top in an awkward position. Gomes drives down several hammerfists, and before she can get the armbar, Hill slides out the side. Hill, now in the driver’s seat, gets blasted with a right hand from Gomes on her back. Hill toughs it out and elbows Gomes in the face, and Gomes forces her way back up at the bell to end the close, exciting round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 2
Hill keeps her guard up high when she comes out of her corner, as Gomes whips a head kick at her to lead off the round. Gomes is intercepted when looking for a big overhand right, and Hill ties her up for a second before pushing off. Hill snipes Gomes with a solid right hand, and Gomes grins at her. Hill works her with a second overhand right, and a third before Gomes lobs another kick at her. Hill takes the strikes of the Brazilian and fires back, and she leans away from a spinning kick from Gomes. The two trade hands, and then land low kicks at the same time. Hill ducks a strike and comes over the top with a left, and she connects with two punches to follow. Gomes loads up again with power, and it hits air as Hill is too quick to eat it flush. Gomes absorbs a right hand on the chin and tags Hill with an uppercut, leading Hill to tie her up in the clinch and shove her to the wall. Hill gets off an elbow, and Gomes lowers her hands and looks for hefty counters. Hill spins with an elbow that bangs into Gomes’ chin, and Gomes goes not bat an eye and continues advancing. Hill shoots for a takedown, and Gomes defends with a standing guillotine that makes Hill think twice about the attempt. Hill sneaks in a few clinch strikes before backing off, and she watches Gomes’ winging strikes blaze past her. Hill catches a kick and deposits Gomes to the floor, but Gomes get right back up and takes a deep breath. Hill scores a few punches, and Gomes crowds her and blasts her in the face with a fierce right hand. When Hill grabs hold of her, Gomes answers with a number of vertical, hacking elbows. Gomes overswings, and Hill snags her and looks to drag her down. When Gomes keeps her balance, Hill smacks her in the face with a knee. Hill turns the corner, and Gomes succeeds in fighting off the takedown but gets kneed in the dome twice more. The round ends as the two are stuck together.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 3
As if she thought she was down on the scorecards, Gomes charges out of her corner and busts the veteran in the chops with a number of wide punches. Hill fires back, and she blunts the momentum by clinching up the younger woman and tripping her with a body lock. Gomes drops to her knees, defending the strikes from the side, and Hill hangs on from behind. Before long, Gomes works her way back to her feet with the fence at her back, and Hill drags her down again. Hill stays on the Brazilian like a bad penny, never giving Gomes a moment to breathe and not allowing her to get anything off. Hill peppers Gomes with knees to the head, side and thigh, attacking any target she can find while Gomes is stuck without answers. This grinding approach is slowing Gomes down, and a knee to the belly takes a bit more of the wind out of her sails. Gomes manages to push off and keeps throwing hands, but one left hand allows Hill to duck it and secure a single-leg takedown. When Gomes attempts to scramble, Hill is one step ahead, whether trying to take the back or working Gomes with strikes to the side of the melon. Gomes defends but is totally out of her game, and a short elbow from “Overkill” opens a cut on the side of Gomes’ eye. Hill flattens Gomes out, but Gomes explodes with 15 seconds to go and gets back up through sheer aggression. Hill tags her with a jump knee, and the close contest concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill)
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Denise Gomes via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Denise Gomes, citing the 15-year age gap and Hill's age. He notes Hill is durable and experienced, but Gomes is tough, comes forward, and has power. He placed a small half-unit bet on Gomes at -141. He cautions that if Gomes fights recklessly and gasses, Hill could win as an underdog.
Big Brady picks Angela Hill to win by decision but is hesitant. He notes Hill's experience and better competition, but worries about her age (38) and Gomes' power. He says Gomes is hittable but has real power for the division. He mentions that Hill just fought a five-round fight with Mackenzie Dern, so this is a step down in competition. He says he won't bet this fight.
Daniel Levi picks Denise Gomes, citing her rare one-punch knockout power in women's MMA and her aggressive style. He notes that Angela Hill, at 38, has slowed down and taken significant damage in recent fights, including a beating from Mackenzie Dern. Levi believes Gomes can hurt Hill on the feet and may even knock her out for the first time. He acknowledges Hill's experience and toughness, but sees Gomes' physicality and power as decisive factors. He is waiting for plus money on Gomes but leans toward her.
James sees this as a very close fight and is passing on betting. He believes Angela Hill is on a downward trajectory at 39 years old, gets hit often, and has been dropped in recent fights. He thinks Denise Gomes has power and could hurt Hill, but he is not sold on Gomes' overall game, describing her as uneducated on the feet. He notes that Hill has never been knocked out and could make it look easy if she can take Gomes' power, but he is not confident she can avoid getting clipped. He concludes it is a massive stay away.
Hill's volume striking style, speed, and footwork will allow her to stay out of danger and pick apart Gomes from distance. Gomes' wrestling is not good enough to hold Hill down for extended periods. Hill should be able to operate at distance and win a decision, making her a good underdog spot.
The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an underdog over Denise Gomes. He praises Hill's composure and durability, noting she is very hard to finish. He references Hill's win over Loma Lookboonmee on short notice in Australia as evidence of her toughness. The Guru believes if Gomes doesn't get an early finish, Hill will pull ahead in later rounds, predicting a close 29-28 decision. He also mentions he likes the underdog odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 1 | 126 of 210 | 60% | 247 of 340 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 13:12 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 66 of 108 | 61% | 94 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 7:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 1 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 37 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 | |
| 2 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 22 of 49 | 44% | 31 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 27 of 40 | 67% | 41 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:33 | |
| 3 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 30 of 39 | 76% | 70 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:23 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 4 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 24 of 50 | 48% | 34 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 31 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 | |
| 5 | Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 27 of 30 | 90% | 75 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 126 of 210 | 60% | 104 of 186 | 18 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 58 of 132 | 19 of 22 | 49 of 56 |
| Angela Hill | 66 of 108 | 61% | 27 of 65 | 39 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 74 | 30 of 31 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mackenzie Dern | 23 of 42 | 54% | 19 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
| Angela Hill | 12 of 16 | 75% | 5 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mackenzie Dern | 22 of 49 | 44% | 13 of 40 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 27 of 40 | 67% | 10 of 22 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 22 | 18 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mackenzie Dern | 30 of 39 | 76% | 29 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 28 |
| Angela Hill | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | |
| 4 | Mackenzie Dern | 24 of 50 | 48% | 16 of 41 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 41 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 23 of 38 | 60% | 10 of 24 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 28 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Mackenzie Dern | 27 of 30 | 90% | 27 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 22 |
| Angela Hill | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dern (-170), Hill (+145)
Round 1
A place among the top 10 looms for the victor of this headlining strawweight tilt, in a cliched but accurate grappler vs. striker affair. With the majority of her wins coming by submission, Dern (12-3, 7-3 UFC) wants to get her hand raised at all costs to keep any championship hopes alive for the foreseeable future. On the other side of the equation, fan-favorite “Overkill” Hill (15-12, 10-12 UFC) is one significant strike away from passing Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the most landed of any female fighter to enter the Octagon. Something’s gotta give in this final fight of the card, and it will play out after the final instructions are given by referee Jason Herzog. There is intensity but plenty of respect, as the women bump their fists together before preparing to engage. Dern loads up immediately with fierce fists, and Hill is surprised by the sudden power coming her direction. Dern punches her way into a clinch, and Hill pushes her back to the wall but does not want to be locked up here. Dern grinds her elbow on her foe’s face, and they jockey for position in the clinch. Hill drives a knee to the body, and Dern responds with one to break free. Dern swings with all her might and hurts Hill with wild hooks, and she looks to throw Hill to the ground when they get close. Dern lands on her back in the process, and she activates her offensive guard and looks for a submission. Hill escapes smoothly, but Dern follows her and busts her in the chops with a left hand. A shocked hill hits her seat, and Dern instantly gloms onto her and looks to take her back while Hill is still clearing the cobwebs. Hill turns to her back, and leans up against the fence to keep leverage and protect herself from further harm. Dern steps through to half guard, and she looks to pass to the side or mount. Hill kicks her off and uses upkicks to keep her honest, and she hooks her toes in the fence. Dern drops down for a kneebar or a toe hold. Hill fights it off, but Dern secure full mount with seconds to spare, Dern batters Hill with elbows and punches, and she sets up an armbar with 20 seconds on the clock. Hill defends with every bit of energy, and she grits it out wildly before the horn saves “Overkill.”
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Round 2
Dern begins the second round confidently, and her big right hand immediately clips Hill. Hill welcomes the brawl, and Dern kicks her in the midsection and charges at her with flailing fists. Hill escapes one clinch, and Dern is following her relentlessly with heavy swings. Hill lets her overswing to take Dern’s back, and this slows Dern down and stops her from hitting her in the face repeatedly. Hill grinds from the side and back, getting in an occasional right hand and knee while forcing Dern to carry her weight. Hill grips her arm around Dern’s jaw and releases it at the right moment to knee her in the face, and Dern gets her back to the wall and knees in response. The two trade knees, and Herzog asks them to keep working. Hill lands knees to the body and an elbow on the break, and she backs off. Dern throws with bad intentions, and Hill’s head movement keeps her face from a long exchange. Dern sits down on a leg kick, and the two clinch up again. Hill grinds her opponent up against the cage, with knees to the midsection and short left hands getting in. Dern looks for a throw but is shut down, and they knee one another in the chest. Hill stays more active with knees, and she dings Dern with a right hand before they split up. Dern punches her way forward, and gets popped with an overhand right. Hill shucks off a takedown attempt, and she pushes Dern to the wall as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 3
The strawweight contenders meet in the middle of the age, and Dern leads off with a right hand and a high kick. When Dern attempts another kick, Hill knocks her off her feet, and “Overkill” willingly climbs into the guard. Dern throws her legs up high to set up a triangle choke, and Hill smartly stacks Dern up and shuts it down. Dern transitions to an armbar, and Hill backs off and stands up. Dern follows her, and she drives a knee on the chin that hurts Hill and puts her on baby deer legs. Dern attempts to throw a wobbled Hill down to the ground, and Hill winds up on top and fights her way up to her feet, possibly on autopilot after the hammering blow. Dern looks for another throw, and this time, she drags Hill to the floor and climbs into mount with three minutes to go. Hill turns to her stomach, and Dern allows her to do this so she can elbow and punch Hill in the side of the head. Hill looks to push her feet off the fence to protect herself, and she kicks off at the right time to roll to her knees. Dern muscles her back down again, and she unleashes fierce ground-and-pound as she traps Hill on her side. Hill shells up and posts off the wall, and Dern follows her and continues pummeling her with elbows and punches. Dern kiais every time she lands a strike, and these blows are not light and Hill is eating them or blocking them to little effect. Dern rides and batters Hill with left hands, screaming with every blow, and Hill scrambles but winds up in the armbar. With 30 seconds left, Dern softens Hill up with a few hammerfists and leans to her back to extend the arm. Dern cannot break the grip before time expires, and Hill has once more been saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dern
Round 4
Between rounds, Hill’s left eye swells up significantly, and it is closing fast. Despite this, she is good to go in the championship rounds. Dern slams her fists into Hill’s face to start off again, and she stings Hill and forces a tie-up. Hill presses her tightly to the fence, slowing the offense for a time. Dern uses a few elbows to get some space and considers a head lock throw, but Hill breaks away courtesy of a few punches. Dern trades hands with her foe, and Hill is not taking the punches well. “Overkill” clinches her up to not getting tagged, and Dern breaks with a fierce elbow. Dern hammers the lead leg with a few kicks, and she initiates a clinch to take the fight down. Hill turns her around before this materializes, and another stalemate ensues with knees to the body coming from both women. Dern looks to hook the leg or drag her down, and she forces Hill to carry her body weight. Hill spins her around with a frenzied effort, and Dern backs her off with a stern elbow. Hill the strikes on the chin, and Hill looks for a takedown and gets thrown awkwardly to her back, while hanging onto Dern from behind. Dern turns her around, and Hill hangs on with an arm-triangle choke from her back. The horn sounds with Dern in no danger from the submission setup.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dern
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dern
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dern
Round 5
The fighters have reached the final frame, and Hill’s eye is greatly swollen but not in danger of stopping the fight. She engages in a brief slugfest to start things off, and Dern catches her with a few punches and throws Hill to her back. Hill closes her guard, and Dern stacks her up and grinds an elbow on the chin to open it up. Hill reaches her legs up high and hopes to wrap them over a shoulder, and she gets her toes in the fence and even considers an armbar. Dern is wise to it and powers through it, and she moves to side control at the three-minute mark. Dern steps over to grab hold of Hill’s left arm, and she lets it go to hurt Hill with elbows. Hill turns to her side, smothered by the active Dern, and Dern traps her and elbows her repeatedly. Dern takes the back and looks for an armbar, but she flattens Hill out and punches her on both sides of the head. Dern gets both hooks in from behind, and she steps over to full mount and hammerfists Hill with no way out. Try as she might, Hill cannot get out, and Dern clobbers her with a long series of elbows. Hill holds on and moves enough to stave off referee intervention, and Dern beats on her right until the bitter end. Hill has reached the final horn, in what may be a moral victory after a fairly brutal drubbing. The victorious Dern earns her third stripe on her black belt from father, “Megaton” Dias. With her striking improving dramatically, Dern is an immediate top contender in the strawweight division. While the top echelon of the division is so jam-packed, Dern asks for a matchup against former champion Rose Namajunas. If that happens, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dern (49-44 Dern)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dern (49-44 Dern)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dern (49-44 Dern)
The Official Result
Mackenzie Dern def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (49-43, 49-44, 49-44)
Angelo picks Mackenzie Dern because the fight is now five rounds, which benefits Dern's dangerous grappling and cardio. He notes that Dern never quits and the extra time gives her more chances to catch Angela Hill. He expects a close fight but believes Dern's finishing ability is the difference. He plans to bet on Dern by inside the distance (decision no action) if the odds are better than -350.
Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern to submit Angela Hill, possibly in any round. He notes Dern is younger, improving her striking and wrestling, and has a huge advantage on the ground. He believes Dern will eventually get a takedown and submit Hill, similar to how Randa Markos submitted Hill. He acknowledges Hill's takedown defense is good but thinks Dern's pressure and power will wear her down over five rounds.
Cody argues that Mackenzie Dern's takedown success is inconsistent, especially in five-round fights, and she lacks striking volume. He notes Dern's poor striking defense and low output, while Angela Hill has excellent volume, cardio, and submission defense. He sees Hill winning by outworking Dern on the feet over five rounds.
Connor picks Dern despite acknowledging Hill's advantages over five rounds. He argues that Dern's hyper-aggressive grappling and ability to create instant submission threats from awkward positions will give her chances early, and that Hill hasn't faced a grappler with that kind of venom. He admits that if Dern doesn't finish in the first round and a half, Hill likely wins, but he can't shake the image of Dern wrapping up a leg for a quick submission.
Daniel Levi leans toward Mackenzie Dern but is not confident. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ and submission threat, but questions her takedown offense (11% accuracy, less than 1 takedown per 15 minutes) and striking defense. He notes Angela Hill has 77% takedown defense and hasn't been submitted since 2019, and that strikers like Yan Xiaonan and Marina Rodriguez survived Dern's ground game. He sees Hill as superior on the feet and thinks the blueprint to beat Dern exists. Ultimately, he picks Dern via submission but says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and there's no value at -175.
James sees this as a 50-50 fight but favors Angela Hill due to the plus-160 line, which he believes offers value. He notes that Hill has above-average takedown defense and will likely keep the fight standing, where she can outpoint Dern. However, he acknowledges Dern's submission threat and the possibility of Dern winning via decision if she gets takedowns in three rounds. He is hesitant and not fully committed to betting Hill yet, considering hedging with Dern submission.
The host leans toward Angela Hill but is the least confident on this fight. He thinks Hill's footwork, output, and takedown defense could allow her to batter Dern on the feet and win by decision. He notes Dern could also win quickly by submission if she gets takedowns. He suggests a round 4 or 5 decision prop but says he won't put money on either side.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the betting lines suggest a striking affair. He points out that Dern's takedown line is low (1 takedown) and that Hill's takedown defense has been adequate against good grapplers. He sees value in Hill at +150 and expects her to win a striking decision.
The MMA Guru picks Mackenzie Dern, believing her grappling will be the difference in a five-round fight. He notes Dern is younger (30 vs 38) and still improving, while Angela Hill rarely finishes. He expects the fight to hit the ground at some point, citing Michelle Waterson's success in taking Hill down. He predicts Dern will win by submission in round three, as her BJJ is a major threat.
Zane picks Angela Hill because he believes Dern's only path to victory is early submission, and over five rounds Hill's superior striking and improved defensive grappling will allow her to survive early scares and take over. He notes that Hill has refined her striking to be more efficient and can maintain a winning pace, while Dern's chances drop off precipitously as the fight goes on. He also points out that Hill's clinch work could punish Dern for trying to tie up.
Ariane Carnelossi - Fight History
The host picks Souza confidently, stating that she is a little bit better anywhere the fight takes place outside of muscular ability. He notes that Souza is a better striker and a better grappler than Carnelossi, and expects her to cruise to a comfortable decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28.
AJ is confident Ketlen Souza will avenge her loss to Ariane Carnelossi. He notes Souza has improved significantly, now in better shape with legit boxing and pressure, while Carnelossi has stagnated or regressed. He expects Souza to outwork Carnelossi to a unanimous decision, citing her cleaner striking and improved grappling defense.
AJ believes Ketlen Souza has improved significantly since her prior loss to Carnelossi, with sharper boxing, better pressure, and cage cutting. He views Carnelossi as having stagnated, relying on power Muay Thai but lacking technical growth. AJ expects Souza to win a striking clinic, likely by decision, though a finish is possible.
Angelo picks Ketlen Souza, stating she is the better striker and grappler. He believes Souza will pressure forward, get Carnelossi to overcommit, and then secure a takedown. He notes that Souza's bad offensive takedowns are better than Carnelossi's worst takedown defense, and if it goes to the ground, Souza might get a finish.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Souza to win by decision. He notes that Souza has improved since their first fight and is better everywhere, but he has concerns about her fight IQ after her performance against Bruna Brasil where she clinched for 15 minutes instead of finishing. He sees a potential knockout or submission but leans decision.
Ketlen Souza is in her prime and has a nice jab with aggressive volume. Ariane Carnelossi is not a volume striker and wants takedowns, but Souza's takedown defense should hold. Souza will win a decision, as Carnelossi has been inactive and lost last time out.
Cody picks Souza, noting her improved striking and volume compared to Carnelossi. He highlights Carnelossi's poor takedown defense and low output. Souza should win standing and has better cardio.
Ketlen Souza is picked because she is the better striker with power and can grapple. Ariane Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (22%) and cannot grapple. Souza should win by submission or decision, as she has a clear advantage everywhere.
Souza is a better wrestler and grappler than Carnelossi, who hasn't won a real fight since 2021. Carnelossi's only recent win was by DQ, and she was losing that fight. Souza should control the grappling exchanges and win a decision.
Lucrative James picks Ketlen Souza to win the rematch, citing her physical and skill improvements since their 2019 fight. He notes Souza's better conditioning, improved grappling, and recent performances against higher-level competition. He believes Carnelossi's wins since then are unimpressive and that Souza will avenge her loss via decision.
Souza has improved since their first fight, showing better durability and a slicker striking approach. She can wear on Carnelossi with clinch and grappling, and should be able to take Carnelossi's biggest shots. Souza wins a close decision, though the -285 line is too steep.
Paul picks Souza but is hesitant due to the high price. He notes Souza has improved since their first fight, while Carnelossi has not. He would prefer a better price but expects Souza to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 60 of 100 | 60% | 79 of 122 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 | 0 | 6:10 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 50 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 26 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 1 of 17 | 5% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 22 of 31 | 70% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talita Alencar | 60 of 100 | 60% | 34 of 67 | 19 of 23 | 7 of 10 | 31 of 65 | 14 of 15 | 15 of 20 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 25 of 76 | 32% | 10 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 14 | 25 of 71 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talita Alencar | 18 of 30 | 60% | 9 of 18 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 of 17 | 5% | 1 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Talita Alencar | 20 of 39 | 51% | 10 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 10 of 35 | 28% | 2 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Talita Alencar | 22 of 31 | 70% | 15 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 10 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 14 of 24 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-250); Carnelossi (+210)
Round 1
After a rousing series of fight cards around the world, the UFC recedes back to the Apex for half of its remaining shows this year. The first of two weekends in a row, the promotion’s headquarters—reportedly with new, revamped internal facilities even including concession stands (that are not open yet)—will play host to UFC Fight Night 263, also known as UFC Vegas 110. For the sixth time in the last eight events, women will kick off the violent festivities. Strawweights take center stage, where a loss will almost certainly save their place on the roster while a defeat does not guarantee another match in the Octagon. Alencar (6-1-1, 2-1 UFC) has reached the final bout of her initial four-fight deal, so this one will matter more than the others. She battles the returning Carnelossi (15-3, 3-2 UFC), who has only competed once in the last three years. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as they bump fists.
Carnelossi comes out of her corner loaded for bear, and she bashes Alencar in the face right off the bat. Alencar bounces back, rebounds off the fencing and pushes out with kicks. She rushes forward behind a right hand to set up a clinch with a body lock takedown attempt, and Carnelossi muscles her around to break it up. Carnelossi scores a short strike on the break, and then walks her retreating countrywoman down. “Sorriso” has her guard up in time to block the single kicks soaring her direction, although a one-two down the pipe gets her attention. Carnelossi goes for her own level change, ultimately hitting a 115-pound wall plus the cage behind her in Alencar. Carnelossi grinds on Alencar when a single-leg effort fails, and she smacks Alencar with short but frustrating overhand rights.
Carnelossi staves off a counter trip attempt, and the two jockey for position twirled around in the tie-up. Alencar puts Carnelossi’s back to the fencing, and she knees her in the stomach when bending over for something. Carnelossi turns her about once more and gives her a few knees to think about on the other side of the equation. This continues, and Alencar is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Carnelossi stuck and has her hand slapped away a few times. Alencar ducks down in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and she gets it for a second or two before Carnelossi pops back to her feet without issue. Carnelossi punches her way out of the clinch and meanders forwards Alencar, swinging her way until they end up clinching once more. Alencar trips Carnelossi to the floor, and Carnelossi uses her upkicks when hitting the mat to keep Alencar from climbing on top of her. Alencar drops to her knees, and Smith warns Carnelossi for what would be illegal upkicks. The horn sounds with Alencar striking from above.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 2
Like the previous round, Carnelossi plods directly forward to engage, no glove touch in the works. Carnelossi walks through a body kick to put her hands on her opponent, and a right hand opens a tiny cut on the bridge of Alencar’s nose. Alencar swings, and Carnelossi counters her more effectively. Alencar’s front kick is an effective weapon at keeping her foe at bay, but only for a brief time as Carnelossi tends to charge when struck with that blow. She does just that when drilled with a kick down the middle, racing after Alencar and slugging her in the face. Carnelossi ducks down and nearly takes a knee on the chin, and they proceed to bang it out up close and personally. Alencar spins with a back kick when in close proximity, and Carnelossi’s pressure is getting to her as she cannot get space to recover. Carnelossi connects with a hefty low kick that makes Alencar recoil it awkwardly, and she keeps kicking that spot.
Alencar winds up with a huge right hand while taking shots, and she grabs the back of Carnelossi’s head and drives a knee square into it. Alencar hurls Carnelossi to the floor, and she prevents Carnelossi from standing by snapping down on the back of her neck. Carnelossi still manages to force her way upright, and she remains comfortable in the clinch getting her head right after getting stunned. Carnelossi tries to drag the fight to the floor, and Alencar turns the tables and puts her down on the mat. When Carnelossi looks to get up, Alencar hangs on to a kimura that she uses to attempt to sweep. When not looking for that, she elbows Carnelossi in the side of the dome again and again. Carnelossi drops all the way down to pursue a desperate takedown, and Alencar accepts it as she has her legs laced around Carnelossi’s and looks to take her back. Alencar gets the hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke, fastening the short choke under the chin and pulling back. Carnelossi rolls to her side and then stomach, surviving the deep submission and likely being saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 3
Carnelossi appears good to go to start the round despite nearly going out in the end of the previous frame, and she asserts pressure. Carnelossi kicks low to open up a right hand, and she ignores a body kick to hunt “Problem Child” down. Alencar sticks out a right hand, and Carnelossi swarms her with a combination counter. Alencar snaps out a left, but her blows are largely one-and-done while Carnelossi’s volume is giving her fits. Alencar puts three punches together to decent effect, and she fakes a level change after it to get Carnelossi to bite. They trade low kicks, and Carnelossi checks the latter and gives her another one back. As Carnelossi fearlessly walks Alencar down kicking her in the midsection, Alencar snatches the limb out of the air and trips Carnelossi to the floor. Carnelossi prevents Alencar from getting into her guard by pitching upkicks aplenty, and she even threatens briefly with an omoplata shoulder lock setup that ultimately puts her in a worse position than when she started.
Alencar lowers herself down into the side control position, where she slips right to north-south position with Carnelossi scrambling all the while. Carnelossi counters with her own single-leg shot, and Alencar steps over her and sets up an inverted triangle choke. Alencar hammers the side with elbows until Carnelossi explodes to get to her knees and push through the takedown try. Alencar shuts her down and elbows her in the side of the head until pulling guard and getting Carnelossi’s back.
With a minute left in the round, Alencar gets the body triangle secure, and she starts fishing for chokes. Alencar slides her right forearm beneath the chin, and she goes palm-to-palm but it is not crushingly tight. Alencar adjusts her grip, torqueing the choke as hard as she can, and Carnelossi lifts her arm up and dramatically taps out.
This marks the first time that “Sorriso” has been submitted since her pro debut in 2014 against Amanda Ribas. The victorious Alencar puts behind her a five-fight decision or draw stretch, and all of her stoppages remain by RNC.
The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 4:36 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Talita Alencar, highlighting her grappling prowess and recent win over Vanessa Demopoulos. He notes Ariane Carnelossi is physically strong but lacks takedown defense and skills. He expects Alencar to get takedowns and control the fight, though he is unsure about spending $9,000 on her in DFS.
Big Brady picks Talita Alencar due to Ariane Carnelossi's terrible takedown defense (14%). He notes Alencar is not the best wrestler but attempts many takedowns and is good on top with solid ground and pound. He also mentions Alencar is a six-time BJJ world champion. The only concern is Alencar's cardio, but he believes Carnelossi will struggle. He predicts a second-round submission.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Carnelossi is very strong but stiff and awkward everywhere. He thinks Alencar's jiu-jitsu will allow her to drag Carnelossi down and control her on the ground, even if her wrestling isn't elite.
Lucrative James picks Talita Alencar, citing her superior wrestling and grappling against Ariane Carnelossi, who has poor takedown defense (14%). He believes Alencar will take Carnelossi down at will and control the fight on the ground. He notes Carnelossi's power and toughness but thinks the skill gap is too large, predicting a decision win for Alencar.
Carnelossi's strength and BJJ black belt should help her stay safe against Alencar, and she will eventually butcher Alencar on the feet to win by TKO. The host is surprised the odds are as wide as they are, implying value on Carnelossi.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi despite Talita Alencar being the favorite. He worries that Alencar's grappling may not be enough to get takedowns consistently, and Carnelossi's physicality and strength could neutralize Alencar's shots. He believes Carnelossi will win on damage if the fight stays standing, predicting an upset decision.
Zane picks Alencar because she is a solid jiu-jitsu fighter with good top control, while Carnelossi is stiff, head-hunts, and is easy to take down. He notes that Alencar's wrestling is clumsy but she finds ways to get to good positions. Carnelossi tends to stay on her back when put there.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 51 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 24 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 40 of 81 | 49% | 34 of 73 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 60 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 8 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 16 of 49 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 50 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 10 of 33 | 30% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 21 of 31 | 67% | 16 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-192), Carnelossi (+160)
Round 1
After over a year off, Venezuelan striker Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) will be making her return to the cage hoping to rebound from her first career defeat. She meets Carnelossi (14-3, 2-2 UFC), whose layoff exceeds her own—“Sorriso” has not competed since May 2022. The two strawweights will look to shake off any rust while referee Mark Smith watches on. With plenty of respect for one another, they gladly touch ‘em up before throwing down. After some circling, the first strike comes from Carnelossi in the form of a low kick. Rodriguez plods forward letting her hands go in a short but effective spray, and Carnelossi backs her off with a counter. This same exchange happens again, with Rodriguez wading into combat and landing first but getting struck last. Both women land on the other in their punch flurries, and a little over a minute in and Carnelossi is already showing damage on her nose. Rodriguez changes levels, and Carnelossi shoves her away with her fists flying. Rodriguez sneaks in three punches before darting away to evade the counter, and she does this once more. Carnelossi allows Rodriguez to get to her so that she can counter, but Rodriguez is getting off her own shots. Carnelossi surges into action with a heavy right hand after Rodriguez cuts her open on the left cheek, and Rodriguez stays on her bike to get away from the worst of it. Carnelossi bullrushes her foe, driving Rodriguez back to the cage and stumbling her momentarily when letting her hands go. Rodriguez considers another level change, and she meets a stone wall that analyst Din Thomas remarks looks like Sean Sherk. Rodriguez sells out for a takedown, punching her way into the attempt, and she slings Carnelossi to the mat. When they land, their limbs are tangled in their equipment, and Smith makes sure to prevent any wardrobe malfunctions and lets them go. They proceed to slug it out from this horizontal position, with Carnelossi fearlessly throwing hands off her back and flailing her feet to get Rodriguez off of her. Rodriguez considers backing off for a standup, but she instead races ahead and hammers Carnelossi with ground-and-pound until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The strawweights bump their fists together before getting back to it. Carnelossi is the one pressing forward, but she is met by a strong right hand and a knee up the middle. Rodriguez looks to capitalize on this by shooting on the hips, and Carnelossi pushes her back. Rodriguez switches to attack with another knee in the belly, and she spins her foe around and pushes her to the wall. Rodriguez drops down for a single-leg takedown, and Carnelossi hops around on her other foot to remain upright. The women trade elbows, and Rodriguez hammers her with a number of knees. Rodriguez pursues another takedown, this time going after a double as she tries to clasp her hands together around the backside. Carnelossi shuts this down and gains a little space, resulting in a brief brawl that allows her to escape. Rodriguez times a perfect front kick that blasts Carnelossi right in the face, and Carnelossi is on rubber legs and backs away. Rodriguez charges her and swings her fists until Carnelossi falls over, and
Rodriguez leaps on top and headbutts Carnelossi as Smith tells them to watch their heads. “Sorriso” tries to defend herself as Rodriguez is pummeling her with strikes, and Rodriguez sits up and smacks Carnelossi with another headbutt.
Smith calls time after the second egregious foul, and the review officials determine it was a clear headbutt. Carnelossi sits up after a couple minutes of recovery, but she is still seeing stars and compromised from both the legal and illegal blows. Carnelossi stands up after about three minutes and shakes her head, and she lowers herself back down on the fence. Carnelossi sits back down, looking upset as she tries to clear her head, and she keeps shaking her head. The doctor assesses her condition once more, and he advises Smith that the fight should not continue. The only question remaining is if the fight is ruled a no contest or a disqualification.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Piera Rodriguez R2 3:16 via Disqualification (Headbutts)
Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.
Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.
Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.
Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.
The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 46 of 61 | 75% | 130 of 173 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 13:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 31 of 41 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 23 of 30 | 76% | 49 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:24 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 50 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 46 of 61 | 75% | 36 of 49 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 19 | 8 of 12 | 27 of 30 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 23 of 30 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 13 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 17 of 20 | 85% | 13 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Godinez (-170), Carnelossi (+150)
Round 1
In her entire UFC run that began in 2019, Carnelossi (14-2, 2-1 UFC) has competed three times, thanks in part to injury and major surgery on her back. In comparison, “Loopy” Godinez (7-2, 2-2 UFC) debuted for the UFC in 2021, and this is her fifth walk to the Octagon. The strawweights will square off with oversight from outstanding referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch before they get after it. Carnelossi comes out throwing, and Godinez answers her with an attempt to clinch, but the Brazilian has no interest in doing so. Carnelossi wades into power punches, and Godinez slips them and grabs hold of Carnelossi’s arm to throw her down to the mat. Godinez goes after an odd-angle choke in a wild scramble, and Carnelossi gets back up for one seconds before “Loopy” pulls her back down. Godinez snags on to a guillotine choke, and she lets go to take Carnelossi’s back when Carnelossi is on her knees. Godinez cranks on an unorthodox neck crank without a hook in, and Carnelossi powers through so that she can pursue a single. Godinez controls Carnelossi’s ankle from behind, disallowing “Sorriso” to sneak out the back door and try anything. Carnelossi crawls her way to the fence, and Godinez follows her and elbows her upside the head as she looks to get a hook in. Carnelossi powers back up with sheer muscle, and Godinez controls her all the way back down to the mat impressively. Godinez hangs on to Carnelossi, tripping her out and taking her for a ride with her hands clasped around Carnelossi’s chest. Godinez slings her down, and Godinez sets up a shoulder choke when Carnelossi defends with a guillotine choke. The Brazilian abandons her own guillotine so she does not fall into a Von Preux, and Godinez keeps her foe down on the mat with that arm-triangle. Godinez works Carnelossi over with knees to the body and punches, mixing in the occasional elbow as she gives Carnelossi fits. Carnelossi is stuck with her head pinned between the floor and the wall, and Godinez pounds her fist into Carnelossi’s face again and again. Godinez works the thigh with elbows, and controls Carnelossi to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Round 2
The Brazilian comes out with a left hook, but she is well off the mark when she swings it as Godinez is already backing off to kick the body. Godinez sneaks in a right hand, and Carnelossi is shocked and gets cracked with another that wobbles her as Carnelossi tries to counter. Godinez drives through with a double, slamming “Sorriso” down to the mat with emphasis, and she immediately begins to hammer Carnelossi with brutal elbows. Carnelossi struggles to keep her wits about her, and she slowly covers up and tries to turn the tables, only for Godinez to pressure her to the wall with Carnelossi on her knees. Godinez blasts Carnelossi in the ribs with a few knees, and Carnelossi gives up her back to turn away from the blows. Godinez happily takes it, and she gets both hooks in and starts fishing for a choke. Carnelossi tugs on the fence with fingers and toes in an effort to get some leverage, and Godinez meets a sweep attempt from the Brazilian to pull Carnelossi away from the cage wall. Godinez grips the toes for a possible toe hold, and Carnelossi yanks her foot free and subsequently begins to eat elbows. Godinez, from half guard, goes after a two-on-one wrist lock to wrench Carnelossi either up for a keylock or down for a kimura – whatever works for her, as she is firmly in the driver’s seat. Carnelossi turns to her knees as she breaks the les around her own waist, and she then falls to her back as Godinez goes after an arm-triangle choke. Godinez crushes down with the arm-triangle choke while in half guard, and she tries to step over to side control while squeezing the neck with all her might. Carnelossi is struggling and uses the “answer the telephone” defense to give herself just a little bit of breathing room. Carnelossi sits up and pushes Godinez’ arms back to sit up to her knees, and Godinez answers by aiming for a guillotine choke. Godinez cannot keep Carnelossi down as the last few seconds are on the clock, and when they stand, Godinez cracks her with a right hand for good measure to end the dominant round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Round 3
The final round opens with an aggressive Carnelossi, and she throws a right hand and walks straight into a double. Godinez tackles Carnelossi straight to the mat, and she lands straight into side control. Carnelossi turns to her knees, and Godinez punches her in the side of the head when moving. Godinez keeps working the Brazilian with left hands as Carnelossi tries desperately to crawl her way to the fence and stand. Godinez hooks Carnelossi’s legs, and Carnelossi rolls through suddenly for a leglock. Godinez defends well and circles around to return to her position that allows her to land ground-and-pound, and she sucks out Carnelossi’s hips to return her to the floor. They trade short punches, as Carnelossi is leaning her back up against the fence while on her seat. Carnelossi bursts her way upright again, and Godinez ties her up in the clinch to knee and uppercut her repeatedly. “Loopy” decides to put on a show, and she lifts her foe completely up in the air and slams Carnelossi down to the mat. Godinez clings on top and hooks Carnelossi’s legs with her own, and she postures up to elbow Carnelossi a few times as Herzog takes a close look at the action. Godinez continues to grind with elbows, and in half guard she is doing some damage with her strikes. Carnelossi turns to sit up and try to reverse the position, but Godinez meets her every step of the way. Carnelossi eventually stands up, and Godinez knees her, punches her and snags a double to plant Carnelossi right back on the ground to make a statement. Godinez ends the fight with some powerful strikes, and she has likely picked up the biggest win of her career while putting on arguably her best performance to date.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
The Official Result
Lupita Godinez def. Ariane Carnelossi via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Loopy Godinez but expresses hesitation, noting that Carnelossi is hard to push around and that Godinez may struggle to get the fight to the ground. He compares the matchup to Carnelossi's previous fights where she won despite losing exchanges. He mentions he may switch his pick after weigh-ins.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but he is leaning and flip-flopped. He thinks the striking is competitive, with Carnelossi having power and volume, but Godinez has better wrestling. Godinez showed good takedowns against Loma Lookboonmee, and Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (25%). Brady believes Godinez can get takedowns and control the fight on top. However, Carnelossi is dangerous and strong, making this a close fight. He edges Godinez but with little confidence.
Cody picks Lupita Godinez, citing her excellent wrestling and technical striking. He notes that Godinez consistently scores multiple takedowns and controls fights. Carnelossi's takedown defense is suspect, and even if she keeps it standing, Godinez has the striking advantage. Cody believes Godinez's wrestling, cardio, and pace will be decisive, and the -170 price is reasonable.
Daniel Levi picks Ariane Carnelossi as a slight underdog, expecting her to pull away down the stretch. He thinks Carnelossi's power and volume will be decisive if she can get back up from takedowns. He is not confident because Godinez may blanket her with wrestling. He does not bet the fight.
The host is very high on Loopy Godinez, calling this his bread and butter spot with a minus 180 favorite in women's MMA. He highlights Godinez's technical wrestling advantage over Carnelossi, who has suspect takedown defense. He expects Godinez to mix in striking to set up takedowns, then grind on top and possibly find a submission. He warns against Godinez striking too much but trusts her boxing if needed. He is considering making this his lock of the night play.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He considered Carnelossi at +200 but the line moved to +150, which scared him off. He notes that Carnelossi's win over Naliang was unimpressive as Naliang gassed. Paul calls it a dogger pass situation and does not express a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez, trusting her well-rounded skills and potential. He notes that Godinez beat Loma Lookboonmee, who he considers one of the better strawweights, and that her only UFC loss came when moving up in weight. He criticizes Carnelossi's competition and implies she may be using performance-enhancing drugs. He believes Godinez has good enough grappling and striking to win, and that Carnelossi hasn't impressed him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 62 of 119 | 52% | 98 of 156 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 76 of 158 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 7:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 18 of 52 | 34% | 34 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 46 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 27 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 15 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 62 of 119 | 52% | 37 of 88 | 16 of 22 | 9 of 9 | 54 of 109 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 36 of 108 | 33% | 33 of 103 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 100 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 31 of 63 | 49% | 17 of 47 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 18 of 52 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 18 of 29 | 62% | 12 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 30 | 30% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 13 of 27 | 48% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
There are now 10 fights on this maligned UFC Fight Night 195 card, one that is counterprogrammed against Bellator 268 in a few hours. We begin the event at the lightest division on the roster, when Carnelossi (13-2, 1-1 UFC) and her impressive musculature takes on promotional newcomer and fellow countrywoman Nunes (6-1,1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While Nunes is billed as a 7-1 fighter, the first win on her ledger the UFC is listing took place in muay Thai. The night begins thankfully with no nonsense thanks to referee Keith Peterson, and the two strawweights touch gloves before throwing down. Carnelossi immediately opens up with punch combinations, swarming the newcomer with a barrage of strikes. Nunes defends herself and backs away, but “Sorriso” chases her down and slams her in the face with heavy punches. Carnelossi continues to rage forward, and Nunes deftly slips back to land a leg kick, and she counters Carnelossi repeatedly. The two brawl it out and a few punches from Carnelossi draw blood from the nose of her opponent. Carnelossi pursues a takedown as she gets clipped, and Nunes defends the takedown by clearly grabbing the fence repeatedly. Peterson slaps her hand away several times and even grabs hold of it briefly to make her leg go, but she goes right back to grabbing it to stay upright. Peterson allowed a little nonsense in that situation there. Although Carnelossi is finally able to get her down her efforts do not reward her for long as Nunes springs right back up and gains separation. Carnelossi is not going to let her off the hook, as she blitzes towards her opponent with winging punches. She ends up clinching up again when considering a takedown, but the newcomer remains upright but gets jammed into the wire. Carnelossi keeps heavy chest pressure to grind Nunes into the wall, landing a few short shots but otherwise clinging on for dear life. Nunes looks to set up a Thai clinch with her back to the fence, getting off a couple knees and strikes before pushing off with a minute left in the round. Nunes starts spamming front kicks to the body, and they engage in a brief but nasty slugfest, landing flush on one another. Nunes takes a step back, scores a solid one-two and evades the counters. Carnelossi’s strikes are wilder while Nunes tries to compose herself, but defense is at a premium as they both land at a high clip. They tag one another on the chin with powerful punches, and right at the bell, Carnelossi lands flush and has to apologize because it might be after the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Round 2
The strawweights pick right up where they left off, throwing hammers. Nunes strings a quartet of punches together, and Carnelossi answers with a vengeance throwing looping hooks and clubbing Nunes in the face. Carnelossi’s headhunting approach does allow Nunes to counter her, but the sheer forward momentum of Carnelossi pushes Nunes into the wire. Carnelossi pursues a takedown, and once more Nunes grabs the fence to keep her balance. Peterson sees it but does not say anything, and Nunes walks back up to her feet. Carnelossi embraces the grind up against the wall, with Nunes attempting to frame off and land strikes up the middle as Carnelossi remains pressed tightly to her. Carnelossi ducks down for a single leg takedown, and Nunes looks for a power guillotine on the way down to the mat but bails on it when her backside hits the canvas. Carnelossi keeps her foe’s legs trapped beneath her leg triangle, but Nunes slithers one out and then the other before making her way upright. Nunes stands, and she knees Carnelossi on the chin once, but “Sorriso” does not register the blow as she hangs on with everything she has. Nunes stays busy with her back trapped, punching to the side occasionally, and she sneaks out the side to break free and just miss with a head kick. Nunes pops Carnelossi with a few punches as she backpedals, with the shorter Carnelossi crowding her and never giving her space to breathe. Nunes lets loose with a body kick, and this draws a sharp exhale from her opponent, with the latter appearing to slow. Nunes chains punches into body kicks, and she clips Carnelossi with a right hand before Carnelossi barrels towards her and slams her into the ground. Carnelossi manages to score a few left hands when Nunes is seated against the fencing, and Nunes appears flustered as she cannot get up thanks to Carnelossi’s position on top. Nunes powers back to her feet, but she does not get free before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Round 3
Nunes begins the round by circling away to escape the power punches from her marauding opponent. Carnelossi attacks without faltering, throwing big punches and connecting more often than not. Nunes sticks and moves, but she cannot evade every one of the hooks coming her way. Nunes pierces the midsection with a few kicks, and she ducks out of the way as Carnelossi charges at her. They both just miss with single power strikes, and Nunes gets off a right hand only to get smacked with a counter that knocks her back into the wall. Carnelossi uses this momentum to go after a single, and Nunes grabs the fence again to try to pull her way up as Peterson slaps at her hand. When Nunes looks to scramble, Carnelossi climbs on to a three-quarter mount before getting a hook in and partially taking Nunes’ back.
Carnelossi hunts for a choke, and she snakes an arm beneath the throat. “Sorriso” senses that this is her moment to strike, and she snags the grip with her other arm to lock the rear-naked choke in completely.
The forearm under the chin, Nunes looks around, fights the grip for a second and then surrenders. The submission win is now just the second of Carnelossi’s career, who lands her first since a keylock in 2016.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Istela Nunes R3 2:57 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Nunes as an underdog but is hesitant due to her three-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes Nunes is the more technical striker with speed and versatility, while Carnelossi is aggressive and strong but sloppy. He worries about Nunes' timing after the layoff but believes if she finds a rhythm, she will out-strike Carnelossi. He does not bet the moneyline but considers prop bets like plus 3.5 points or win inside distance/decision no action.
Big Brady picks Istela Nunes as a dog, citing her Muay Thai background and technical striking advantage. He notes Carnelossi is hittable with poor striking defense, but acknowledges Nunes has a three-year layoff and questions about her ground game. He is hesitant to bet due to the unknowns, but picks Nunes by decision.
Cody leans toward Carnelossi, noting her strength and physicality. He mentions that Nunes has fought only once in three years due to contract issues with ONE Championship, making her ring rust a concern. He acknowledges Carnelossi's reach disadvantage but thinks her tank-like build and cardio can carry her.
Daniel picks Carnelossi due to her UFC experience and power, comparing her style to Jessica Andrade. He notes that Carnelossi has one-hitter-quitter power that can trouble strawweights, and she rebounded well after a cut stoppage loss. He acknowledges Istela Nunes is scrappy and has finishes, but the USADA suspension and debut questions make him lean toward Carnelossi.
Carnelossi is a forward-pressure brawler who moves forward and throws big bombs, similar to a female John Lineker. Nunes has a long layoff and USADA suspension, making her a question mark. Carnelossi by decision is the play because Nunes is durable and likely to eat shots for 15 minutes.
Paul does not make a clear pick, admitting he is not familiar with Nunes and needs to study the fight more. He provides background on both fighters but does not state a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi due to her superior experience and competition level. He highlights her 'man arms' and physical strength, as well as her proven ground game and stand-up, including a body kick KO. He predicts a ground-and-pound TKO in the second round, noting Carnelossi's cardio and ability to finish late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 36 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 2 | 2:48 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 24 of 32 | 75% | 91 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 3 | 2:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 26 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 2 | 2:25 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 65 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 26 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 27 | 70% | 13 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 |
| Liang Na | 24 of 32 | 75% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Liang Na | 16 of 20 | 80% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
This historic night topped off by a title tripleheader will begin in the lightest division in the company, as Carnelossi (12-2, 0-1 UFC) aims for her first UFC win against the debuting “Dragon Girl” Liang (15-4, 0-0 UFC). Whether Liang holds 13 wins or 15 on her ledger may be of some dispute, but she does bring a 100 percent finish rate into this contest, and referee James Folsom may have his work cut out for him early. There is no touch of gloves as the two fighters would prefer introduce one another with their fists, and with a huge pop from the crowd – remember, we are in Jacksonville, Fla., with a packed house -- we are now underway! The two women come out like a house on fire, going berserk with a wild striking flurry. Both women tag the other, and Liang is the one who gets the advantage of the position as she powers through and bullies the Brazilian to her canvas. Liang steps over to secure an arm-triangle choke as she sits in half guard, and Carnelossi kicks off and reverses the position. Liang drags her back down, but “Sorriso” powers up to her feet and tags Liang with a right hand. “Dragon Girl” does not let her off the hook, charging into a takedown attempt as she furiously throws hands. The strikes do enough to keep Carnelossi busy defending, so that Liang can hit a body lock takedown and throw the Brazilian on the canvas again. Carnelossi keeps her guard closed tight, and Liang lifts her up and slams her down hard. Carnelossi opens up and throws her legs up for an armbar, and although she cannot land it, she is able to sweep Liang and put her on her back. Liang threatens with an armbar of her own, and Carnelossi shrugs it off to start raining down strikes from on top. Liang catches an arm when Carnelossi is hammering her with shots, and she locks up an armbar. Carnelossi muscles her way through to break the grip, and Liang is able to turn her over and put the Brazilian on her back. Carnelossi rolls to her knees as she grabs a leg on Liang, and through sheer force of will, she lifts Liang in the air and slams her down. Liang rolls to her knees and gets clubbed in the side of the head, and Carnelossi circles around to take her back. Carnelossi attempts a rear-naked choke, but Liang wildly scrambles and bursts to her feet. Liang does not stay upright for long, as she nails Carnelossi with punches from on top. Carnelossi snags a triangle choke from her back, and she uses it to mount and put Liang on her back. Carnelossi lands serious strikes from above, and she clubs Liang repeatedly until the bell sounds. Liang survives, but she is extremely fatigued just five minutes in.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Round 2
The pace is nowhere near as insane to start off the second frame, as Liang lands a few strikes from a distance. When Carnelossi counters, Liang flips her foot up and slaps Carnelossi in the face. Carnelossi grabs hold of her foe and looks to take the fight down, but Liang is able to put her down. Carnelossi keeps a hook in and is able to retain back control, and she takes the back and hunts for a choke. Liang twists and turns to break the grip, but she falls to her back as Carnelossi climbs into guard and starts with hammerfists.
Carnelossi keeps smashing her growingly exhausted adversary with a barrage of hammerfists, and before long, Folsom intervenes as Liang is no longer able to intelligently defend herself.
Although the stoppage might seem premature to some, the defeated Liang is gasping for air and completely thrashed after that torrid affair. If this performance is any indication, we will be in for quite a night.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Na Liang R2 1:28 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Carnelossi to win by second-round KO. He notes Carnelossi's takedown defense is strong and she is aggressive, while Liang Na is one-dimensional, always going for takedowns and gassing out if she doesn't get a quick submission. He expects Carnelossi to stuff takedowns and eventually land a knockout after Liang Na tires.
Cody picks Carnelossi, noting her strength and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Liang's grappling attempts will be neutralized by Carnelossi's physicality. He expects Carnelossi to win by decision or TKO.
Daniel picks Ariane Carnelossi because she is a powerful striker who can bully Liang Na on the feet. He notes that Liang Na is a one-dimensional grappler who sells out for submissions, and Carnelossi's brown belt should help her avoid getting caught. He expects Carnelossi to keep the fight standing and possibly get a finish.
I'm picking Liang Na with very little confidence. I think she'll get her grappling game going and possibly pull off a submission in the second or third round. Carnelossi is a brawler like John Lineker, swinging bombs, but Liang has never been knocked out and has been improving at the UFC Performance Institute. Carnelossi's takedown defense and submission game are questionable, so Liang's grappling could be the difference.
Paul picks Carnelossi, citing her physical strength and power. He notes Liang's weak competition and struggles against stronger opponents. He thinks Carnelossi will keep the fight standing and use her strength to overpower Liang. He expects Carnelossi to win by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi over Liang Na. He notes that Carnelossi has known about the matchup longer and is more proven, having kept up with Angela Hill before a cut stoppage. He thinks Liang Na is young and has potential but is taking the fight on short notice and has losses to lesser competition. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Carnelossi.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 72 of 186 | 38% | 83 of 197 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 92 of 184 | 50% | 93 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 32 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 36 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 39 of 85 | 45% | 39 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 72 of 186 | 38% | 36 of 137 | 15 of 26 | 21 of 23 | 57 of 156 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 92 of 184 | 50% | 60 of 137 | 32 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 57 of 139 | 35 of 45 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 28 of 69 | 40% | 13 of 47 | 8 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 49 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 37 of 68 | 54% | 22 of 47 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 46 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 31 of 76 | 40% | 14 of 54 | 5 of 9 | 12 of 13 | 28 of 69 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 39 of 85 | 45% | 24 of 64 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 68 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 13 of 41 | 31% | 9 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 16 of 31 | 51% | 14 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 25 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We continue the theme of a UFC veteran welcoming a debutant to the Octagon as Hill (9-7, 4-7 UFC) faces the surging Carnelossi (12-1, 0-0 UFC) in the strawweight division. Our referee is Fernando Salas Navarro. Carnelossi advances immediately, and gets clipped a few times on the way in by Hill. The Brazilian comes in to clinch, and Hill reverses position while landing several solid knees to the body. They break, but not before Hill cracks her opponent with a sharp right elbow. Carnelossi charges forward again, but Hill is ready on the counter. Carnelossi drops in for a single leg takedown, but Hill defends it well and separates. The Brazilian keeps the pressure coming heavy, walking Hill down and backing her against the fence. Hill circles away, and lands a right hand, but Carnelossi eats it and walks through. A two-punch combination gets through from Hill, and as her corner calls for specific strikes, Hill complies and scores every one. Hill drops in a few hard knees in the clinch, and in the exchange Carnelossi begins to bleed from her forehead. As Carnelossi pushes in, Hill brings up a knee that catches the Brazilian on the chin, but Carnelossi is unfazed. Hill steps in and lands another knee, while avoiding the counter strikes, and then lifts one more up for good measure. Carnelossi slaps in a hard leg kick, and the two women trade hands standing in front of each other. Hill catches Carnelossi with an uppercut, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 2
Carnelossi opens up with a leg kick to begin the round, and seeing its success, she sinks one more. Hill swings with a left-right, and as Carnelossi pushes in, Hill is ready to respond with short knees. As they clinch, again Hill takes the advantage by scoring an elbow on the break. The Brazilian scores a few more leg kicks, and Hill switches stances briefly, and when she does, Carnelossi tags her. Hill wears it well, and circles away while picking her shots. Hill prepares to counter any of Carnelossi's offense with a check knee, and "Sorriso" cracks Hill with a loud body kick. The two trade leather, and some swelling begins to form on The Brazilian's forehead. Hill puts together a few punches, but Carnelossi throws hard and lands on Hill's chin. Carnelossi successfully gets off another low kick, and then while coming forward lands a right over the top. Hill tries for a superman punch, but Carnelossi is ready and throws another leg kick that makes Hill hop around for a second. Hill steps in for an elbow, but Carnelossi clips her with a left hand. The American leads with a knee, and Carnelossi is content to chase her down while loading up on her right hand. Clinched up once more, Hill lands several more knees to the body, and as time expires she leaps in the air and kicks Carnelossi in the midsection.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 3
Carnelossi charges forward to begin the final round, and Hill counters her with a right hand and left knee. The Brazilian stalks down Hill, and chains together a several-punch combination but takes a few knees to the body for her trouble. Hill waits for Carnelossi to come in, and times a powerful right elbow that Carnelossi shrugs off. Hill digs with a left to the body, and Carnelossi tags her with a few punches before clinching up. Hill spins out and slices the Brazilian with a huge elbow that splits her forehead open. The cut, which is placed directly above Carnelossi's left eyebrow and is about an inch wide, immediately begins pouring blood. Navarro calls in the doctor, who remarks the cut is too big and calls it, so the fight is over. Hill records the TKO victory, earning her first stoppage win inside the Octagon.
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 1:56 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)?
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