UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019 · Catchweight (172 lb) · Completed
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Age 40
Height 5' 10"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 1"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tristan Connelly
3.31 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.96 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.33 TD Avg
14.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Michel Pereira
4.46 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.4 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.21 TD Avg
56.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Tristan Connelly - Fight History
LOSS vs Darren Elkins
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 75 of 151 49% 165 of 259 5 of 10 50% 1 0 7:52
Tristan Connelly 0 66 of 117 56% 106 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 19 of 39 48% 55 of 84 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:40
Tristan Connelly 0 7 of 18 38% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:07
Tristan Connelly 0 34 of 50 68% 37 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Darren Elkins 0 28 of 56 50% 70 of 105 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:05
Tristan Connelly 0 25 of 49 51% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 75 of 151 49% 66 of 141 9 of 10 0 of 0 38 of 107 29 of 34 8 of 10
Tristan Connelly 66 of 117 56% 48 of 96 9 of 12 9 of 9 42 of 87 21 of 27 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 19 of 39 48% 17 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 28 2 of 2 7 of 9
Tristan Connelly 7 of 18 38% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 27 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 42 11 of 13 1 of 1
Tristan Connelly 34 of 50 68% 22 of 38 5 of 5 7 of 7 23 of 38 9 of 10 2 of 2
3 Darren Elkins 28 of 56 50% 22 of 49 6 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 37 16 of 19 0 of 0
Tristan Connelly 25 of 49 51% 19 of 41 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 33 11 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Angelo picks Tristan Connelly, though he acknowledges Elkins is never out of a fight. He thinks the damage is catching up to Elkins after his KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly can avoid takedowns and land big punches to sneak out a win, but notes Elkins' toughness and ability to make fights ugly.

"i do like tristan connolly to get it done but the reality is darren elkins is a guy that you can never count out of a fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins but is hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Elkins' experience and wrestling, but worries about his age and damage taken. He expects Elkins to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.

decision
"i'm going to take uh darren elkins to win i think he's going to mix and take downs"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Cody also picks Connelly, noting Elkins' age and wear. He thinks Connelly's cardio and BJJ will allow him to survive early takedowns and take over later. Cody references Connelly's fight against Pat Sabatini, where he lost the first two rounds but dominated the third. He believes Connelly's speed and pressure will be too much for Elkins, and that Connelly could even submit him.

"i'm gonna back another underdog here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins but is not confident. He believes the best version of Elkins would grind out Connelly, but questions how much damage Elkins has taken over his career, comparing him to BJ Penn's decline. He also questions if Connelly belongs at UFC level, noting his win over Michel Pereira was more about Pereira beating himself. Levi is not comfortable laying -175 and passes on betting.

"i'll go with elkins just because if you give me the best version of both guys i do think elkins grinds that out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The host leans Connelly as an underdog, citing his cardio and BJJ. He notes Elkins is slowing down and has taken massive damage, while Connelly has good cardio and can match Elkins' pressure. Connelly's striking is better if kept standing, and his jiu-jitsu can neutralize Elkins' wrestling. He expects a competitive fight that could go to decision, with Connelly having a live chance.

Connelly by decision +300, fight goes to decision -185
"i think connolly's live he's a junkyard dog"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

Paul picks Tristan Connelly as a live underdog, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and age (in fight years). He notes Connelly's BJJ black belt and endless cardio, and his ability to defend takedowns and get back up. Paul thinks Connelly's speed and pressure will be key, and that Elkins may be damaged goods after the Cub Swanson loss. He mentions Connelly's guillotine choke as a potential threat.

"i think this is another live dog that we're looking at"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tristan Connelly

The Guru picks Tristan Connelly, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and recent KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly is younger with less wear and tear, and has shown tenacity in coming back in fights. The Guru notes Connelly's good third round against Pat Sabatini and his win over TJ Laramie. He thinks Elkins' chin is starting to go and that Connelly has more heat in his punches. He predicts Connelly will grind out a decision or get a late finish.

Connelly by decision or late finish; Connelly is an underdog
"i'm taking tristan connolly over darren elkins here... i'm gonna go with tristan connolly grinding out a decision and ending up winning the last two rounds or maybe getting a late rounds finish"
LOSS vs Pat Sabatini
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pat Sabatini 1 26 of 45 57% 73 of 98 1 of 5 20% 1 0 9:58
Tristan Connelly 0 19 of 50 38% 87 of 125 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pat Sabatini 1 11 of 16 68% 33 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
Tristan Connelly 0 3 of 8 37% 6 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pat Sabatini 0 8 of 15 53% 30 of 38 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:18
Tristan Connelly 0 4 of 15 26% 47 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Pat Sabatini 0 7 of 14 50% 10 of 17 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:35
Tristan Connelly 0 12 of 27 44% 34 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pat Sabatini 26 of 45 57% 18 of 36 7 of 7 1 of 2 11 of 27 4 of 6 11 of 12
Tristan Connelly 19 of 50 38% 10 of 41 6 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 42 4 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pat Sabatini 11 of 16 68% 9 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 6
Tristan Connelly 3 of 8 37% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Pat Sabatini 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 6
Tristan Connelly 4 of 15 26% 3 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Pat Sabatini 7 of 14 50% 3 of 10 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 8 4 of 6 0 of 0
Tristan Connelly 12 of 27 44% 5 of 20 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 20 4 of 6 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tristan Connelly vs. Pat Sabatini

Round 1
Beginning the ESPN preliminary portion of the card is a featherweight matchup as former welterweight Connelly (14-6, 1-0 UFC) contends with promising UFC newcomer Sabatini (13-3, 0-0 UFC) at featherweight. These two men both post submission rates over 60 percent, and grappling may be on full display before referee Josh Rutgers. There is a glove touch in front of these excited fans, and away we go. Connelly stalks the newcomer down and lands a few right hands, all while absorbing a leg kick. Sabatini circles around the outside and lands a few crisp punches, and Connelly walks through them to continue chasing. Sabatini ducks a punch and blasts Connelly in the face with a right hand, setting the Canadian down. Sabatini does not miss a beat, pushing his foe flat on his back while landing strikes. The American exerts heavy top pressure as the “USA” chant rings through the arena for the first time of the night. Sabatini holds tight in half guard, and when Connelly sits up, he slides his arm under Connelly’s neck. The newcomer elbows Connelly in the head when Connelly rolls to his side, and this also thwarts a potential sweep attempt for “Boondock.” Sabatini squeezes down with his full body weight as he looks to advance to either three-quarter mount or full mount, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke that forces Connelly to surrender his back. Sabatini gets his hooks in and snags a rear-naked choke, but Connelly fights off the grip. “Boondock” starts taking punches to the side of the head as Sabatini secures a body triangle, and he fishes for the choke every so often as he softens Connelly up. Connelly rolls towards the fence to try to break the body triangle, and Sabatini sneaks his arm under the neck for a second, only to get it pulled away. The seconds peel off the clock as Sabatini maintains back control, and he rides out the round in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini

Round 2
The two touch gloves, and both kick early. Sabatini leaps in the air with a knee, and Connelly pushes it away and tries to land an overhand right. The newcomer goes back to his bike, but he scores a one-two as Connelly is advancing. In one explosive movement, Sabatini crashes forward and nails a double leg takedown that puts Connelly square on his back. The Canadian hacks with elbows from his back, and he sits up but Sabatini is not letting him up. Sabatini tries to readjust his position and pass guard by standing up, and he blocks an upkick to wade down into side control. The Pennsylvanian holds tight with his shoulder pressing on Connelly’s neck, and Connelly knees him in the side to little effect. Sabatini hops to three-quarter mount, but Connelly drags him back to half guard. Sabatini is fine with this, as he drops down punches while Connelly rolls. Connelly swirls through to his knees, and Sabatini threatens with a potential leglock to snag back control. Connelly falls to his back and Sabatini takes side control, until Connelly rolls through and gives up his back. Sabatini thanks him by taking his back, and Sabatini quickly locks up a body triangle again. Sabatini considers sliding into mount, until Connelly rolls to his knees to try to escape this disadvantageous position. “Boondock” topples to his back and into arm-triangle danger, and the two continue to scramble as Sabatini takes the back again. Connelly bucks free of the body kick, and Sabatini meets him by adjusting his hooks. Connelly elbows the thigh to try to spin around, and Sabatini snags the body triangle one last time before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Sabatini
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Sabatini

Round 3
The two featherweights clap hands to clock in the last round, and Connelly stalks Sabatini down in the early going. Connelly loads up on a right hand, and Sabatini latches on to him to clinch him up and threaten a takedown. Sabatini adjusts, grabs a single and nearly plants Connelly down. Connelly wings a right hand as Sabatini backpedals, and the Canadian comes up short with a head kick. The two clinch up in the center of the cage, twisting around and trading knees as they try to be the advancing party. Sabatini changes levels and is rebuffed to take the fight down, grasping a single to wrench the fight to the canvas. Connelly does not let this happen, so Sabatini starts to work the body in the clinch. Connelly grabs hold of a guillotine choke from a standing position, and Sabatini pays it no mind and continues to press his foe heavily on the wire. The two turn back and forth, and Rutgers calls for the fighters to work. Sabatini obliges him with a combination to the body and head. Connelly bites on a takedown attempt to get smacked in the head, and he appears frustrated as he chases Sabatini down. “Boondock” reaches out with a few jabs, and Sabatini counters with a left hand. Connelly cracks him with a right, leading Sabatini to touch his jaw to taunt him. Sabatini ducks down for a takedown, and it is stuffed and the two tangle against the cage. Connelly breaks free and eats a left hook on the chin, but he is no worse for wear. Connelly wings a right hook to respond, and Sabatini dips and gives him one back. Connelly presses him back to the fence, where he executes a trip takedown and gets to half guard. Sabatini sits up into a guillotine choke, and Connelly gives up on it as he tries to pass guard. Sabatini threatens with a leg lock off his back, forcing Connelly to stand up. Sabatini lands a few upkicks, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Connelly (29-28 Sabatini)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Connelly (29-28 Sabatini)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Connelly (29-27 Sabatini)

The Official Result
Pat Sabatini def. Tristan Connelly via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Big Brady picks Sabatini to win by dominant decision. He favors Sabatini in striking, wrestling, and grappling, noting Sabatini is a black belt in BJJ with a wrestling background. He dismisses Connelly's upset win over Pereira because Pereira gassed out. He expects Sabatini to control the fight for three rounds.

"i'm going to say sabatini wins a pretty clear-cut decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Cody picks Sabatini, noting his wrestling and grappling advantage. He mentions Connelly's long layoff and neck surgery, and that Sabatini is a tough debut. He thinks Sabatini's pressure and ground game will be decisive. He also notes that the line has moved significantly, indicating sharp money on Sabatini.

"pat sabatini is a dog man he's a junkyard dog he's a training partner sean brady and he reminds you a lot of sean brady"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Daniel leans with Pat Sabatini, citing his better overall MMA game and youth. He discredits Tristan Connelly's win over Michel Pereira, attributing it to Pereira's antics. He is concerned about Connelly dropping two weight classes and a two-year layoff, but calls it a dog or pass situation and would not lay the current odds.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna lean with pat sabatini to get it done but at the current odds i wouldn't lay it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pat Sabatini

I think Sabatini is the better wrestler and grappler, and he's younger and hungrier. Connolly is coming off a long layoff and neck surgery, and he's dropping to 145 for the first time in years. Sabatini should grind him out over three rounds. I like the under 2.5 at +175 and Sabatini by submission at +340, but the safest play is Sabatini by decision.

Sabatini by submission +340; under 2.5 +175
"i think that this is a great fight for sabatini i think he can go out there and just absolutely grind on connolly"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

Paul picks Sabatini, citing his wrestling, grappling, and youth. He notes Connelly's long layoff (two years), neck surgery, and drop to featherweight. He thinks Sabatini's pressure and ground game will be too much for Connelly, who may struggle with the weight cut. He acknowledges Connelly's cardio and heart but believes Sabatini is the better fighter.

"pat sabatini is a very good wrestler pass sabatini has also begin black belt pass sabatini does have the striking advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Pat Sabatini

The MMA Guru picks Pat Sabatini over Tristan Connelly. He notes that Connelly's upset win over Michael Pena was at welterweight and Pena was showboating, so he doesn't take it too seriously. He believes Sabatini's speed at featherweight will be too much, and Connelly has been out for a long time with neck surgeries. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Sabatini, 29-28.

"i'm gonna be going with pat sabatini here"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tristan Connelly 0 32 of 75 42% 56 of 107 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:03
Michel Pereira 0 64 of 125 51% 151 of 222 0 of 6 0% 1 0 5:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tristan Connelly 0 17 of 34 50% 18 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:24
Michel Pereira 0 15 of 37 40% 28 of 52 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:59
2 Tristan Connelly 0 13 of 34 38% 33 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:23
Michel Pereira 0 18 of 44 40% 46 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Tristan Connelly 0 2 of 7 28% 5 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Michel Pereira 0 31 of 44 70% 77 of 97 0 of 1 0% 1 0 3:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tristan Connelly 32 of 75 42% 13 of 44 17 of 29 2 of 2 23 of 66 9 of 9 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 64 of 125 51% 51 of 106 7 of 13 6 of 6 23 of 71 14 of 20 27 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tristan Connelly 17 of 34 50% 6 of 19 10 of 14 1 of 1 13 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 15 of 37 40% 13 of 32 0 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 25 6 of 8 4 of 4
2 Tristan Connelly 13 of 34 38% 6 of 19 6 of 14 1 of 1 9 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 18 of 44 40% 12 of 36 3 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 34 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Tristan Connelly 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 31 of 44 70% 26 of 38 4 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 12 1 of 2 23 of 30
Michel Pereira - Fight History
WIN vs Zachary Reese
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zachary Reese 0 74 of 148 50% 81 of 160 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:47
Michel Pereira 0 63 of 132 47% 70 of 139 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zachary Reese 0 23 of 51 45% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 0 18 of 40 45% 25 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:42
2 Zachary Reese 0 24 of 44 54% 28 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Michel Pereira 0 22 of 42 52% 22 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Zachary Reese 0 27 of 53 50% 27 of 55 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:03
Michel Pereira 0 23 of 50 46% 23 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zachary Reese 74 of 148 50% 24 of 90 30 of 38 20 of 20 72 of 142 2 of 6 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 63 of 132 47% 29 of 75 31 of 53 3 of 4 53 of 119 9 of 11 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zachary Reese 23 of 51 45% 4 of 29 8 of 11 11 of 11 23 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 18 of 40 45% 8 of 21 10 of 19 0 of 0 15 of 35 2 of 4 1 of 1
2 Zachary Reese 24 of 44 54% 9 of 25 11 of 15 4 of 4 23 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 22 of 42 52% 12 of 25 9 of 16 1 of 1 16 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 1
3 Zachary Reese 27 of 53 50% 11 of 36 11 of 12 5 of 5 26 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 23 of 50 46% 9 of 29 12 of 18 2 of 3 22 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira despite recent poor form, citing his superior athleticism, speed, wrestling, and training partners. He acknowledges Pereira's mental state is a question mark after a public divorce, but believes the version from 2024 would dominate. He goes with his brain over his gut.

"Michel Pereira is the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

Big Brady picks Zachary Reese to defeat Michel Pereira, but with clear disgust and hesitation. He believes Pereira is washed, citing his terrible performances against Abus Magomedov and a 40-second knockout loss to Kyle Daukaus. He calls the fight 'disgusting' and hopes it gets canceled. He notes Reese is the underdog but feels he has more faith in Reese at this point. He predicts a first-round knockout, reasoning that if Daukaus could KO Pereira, Reese can too.

Zachary Reese by first-round knockout
"Give me Zac Reese here. You know, it's dirty. It's greasy. ... I'll take Zac Reese to knock out Michel Pereira in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody thinks Pereira's desperation and flashy style will lead to an early finish. He notes Reese's durability issues and poor cardio. He expects Pereira to win by KO or submission in the first round.

Pereira round one +316
"Pereira is the pick for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Connor picks Pereira despite acknowledging he looks shot. He notes that Pereira has better technique and experience, and that Reese has never beaten a good fighter. He points out that Pereira's creativity and speed could still be enough against a limited opponent like Reese, but admits it's a terrible fight and Pereira could lose if he's truly broken.

Reese opened +130, now +130; Pereira opened -150, now -150
"I'm gonna pick perrera. I can't. But that's what this fight is. Just terrible."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host heavily leans towards Pereira, citing his superior striking, cardio, and ground game compared to Reese. However, he cannot bet Pereira at -155 because of the red flag from Pereira's passive performance against Abus Magomedov, which may indicate decline. He notes that if Pereira shows up and fights to his potential, he wins easily, but the inconsistency makes him unbettable.

Pereira's inconsistency; potential decline after Abus Magomedov fight
"I heavily lean towards Pereira. He's a very tempting bat. I wouldn't touch Reese here because in my opinion there's no advantage that he has over Pereira."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

James picks Michel Pereira to win by first-round finish, but with hesitation due to Pereira's recent poor performances and questionable chin. He notes that Pereira has far better tools and competition wins, but if he doesn't get an early finish, Reese could take over. James prefers the under 1.5 rounds as a betting angle.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to predict Michelle Pereira to win this fight in round one, but it's a very volatile fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Pereira is on a three-fight losing streak but has faced tough competition and should be motivated to save his roster spot. He is the better fighter on paper with more experience. Reese is dangerous but has durability questions. If Pereira comes back at 80% of his former self, he should find a finish. The under 1.5 rounds is also a good play as both are finishers.

under 1.5 rounds at plus money
"So, I'm going to go Pereira. I'm going to go Pereira by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul agrees, citing Pereira's ability to finish fights early and Reese's tendency to get knocked out. He thinks Pereira's wrestling is underrated and that he can win on the ground if needed. He expects a first-round finish.

Pereira inside distance +120
"I want the more dangerous guy. I want the guy that's more able to capitalize."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Michel Pereira, trusting his ability despite a recent loss to Hernandez. He notes Pereira's cardio issues but thinks he can find Reese's chin. He is unsure due to Pereira's inconsistency but believes Reese's fundamental ability is lacking.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Michael Pahea getting this one done by TKO over Zachary Reese."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Zachary Reese

Zane picks Reese as a counter to Connor, arguing that Pereira's confidence is shattered after the Hernandez loss and he has looked terrible in his last two fights. He notes that Reese is dangerous early and that Pereira's recent performances suggest he no longer knows how to fight. He admits it's a terrible fight and that Reese could easily lose, but he's willing to take the chance.

"Ah, fuck it. I'll take zach reese. Yeah might as well. Terrible fight."
LOSS vs Kyle Daukaus
KO R1 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 1 5 of 8 62% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 1 5 of 8 62% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus

Round 1
The younger Daukaus brother returns to the UFC after a mixed first run in the Octagon followed a second middleweight title win in
Cage Fury Fighting Championships
after his release. Tasked with getting Daukaus’ second stint off to a bad start will be noted Brazilian madman Pereira. The referee on duty is Marc Goddard. Daukaus is southpaw, Pereira orthodox. Daukaus stalks forward and Pereira gives ground. Pereira nails Daukaus with a huge body kick, but he wears it well.
Seconds later, Daukaus clips the onrushing “Demolidor” with a short right hook to the jaw that drops him to his butt. Pereira tries to rally, but Daukaus pounces with a couple of glancing fists, then three jackhammer elbows that spur Goddard into action for the save.
Sensational knockout and a triumphant return for “The D’Arce Knight,” and for those keeping track at home, that makes two sub-minute finishes in the first four fights at UFC Shanghai. Yes, please.

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Michel Pereira R1 0:43 via KO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo is very confident in Michel Pereira, calling him an absolute beast with insane athleticism, real power, and solid wrestling and BJJ. He notes that Pereira is a better hammer than nail and that his recent loss was uncharacteristic, partly due to personal life issues. He dismisses Kyle Daukaus as not good at the UFC level despite regional wins, and expects Pereira to beat the brakes off him. He even says if Pereira doesn't win, cut them both.

"I think Michelle Pa comes in here, beats the absolute breaks off of Kyle Dawkins, and gets back on track."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira to win by first-round knockout, despite Pereira's recent poor performance against Abus Magomedov. He believes the matchup is favorable for Pereira because Daukaus is hittable and fragile, and Pereira has the striking advantage. He notes that Daukaus will struggle to take Pereira down and that Pereira should finish early with a body shot or flying knee.

Pereira by first round knockout
"Give me Michelle Pereira. I'll take him to win by first round knockout. Hopefully he doesn't bet against himself again."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host acknowledges it's tough to trust Pereira after his last gunshy performance, but thinks he has a good opponent here to show off his power. He notes that Daukaus has crumbled under power before and expects Pereira to find a knockout.

win by KO/TKO
"I think he has a good enough partner here that he can show off his power once again. And we've seen Dawkins crumble under plenty of power before and Pereira can provide that and I think we'll see Pereira find …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira to win, expecting an easy first-round finish. He believes Pereira is on another level compared to Kyle Daukaus, who is decent but lacks standout ability in any area. He notes that Pereira is much better at striking and moves well, which should carry him past Daukaus. However, he acknowledges that if the fight goes later, Daukaus could find success in the clinch.

first round finish
"This should be a pretty easy first round finish for Muel Preer. I think he's on another level to Kyle Dorcas."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 73 of 168 43% 74 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 78 of 134 58% 83 of 140 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 18 of 31 58% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
2 Michel Pereira 0 25 of 58 43% 26 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
3 Michel Pereira 0 41 of 90 45% 41 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 36 of 57 63% 36 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 73 of 168 43% 27 of 90 27 of 50 19 of 28 72 of 166 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 78 of 134 58% 53 of 99 19 of 29 6 of 6 72 of 128 3 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 7 of 20 35% 0 of 4 4 of 9 3 of 7 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 18 of 31 58% 10 of 23 5 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 26 2 of 2 3 of 3
2 Michel Pereira 25 of 58 43% 7 of 28 8 of 17 10 of 13 25 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 24 of 46 52% 14 of 30 8 of 14 2 of 2 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michel Pereira 41 of 90 45% 20 of 58 15 of 24 6 of 8 40 of 88 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 36 of 57 63% 29 of 46 6 of 10 1 of 1 35 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, believing his athleticism and power will overwhelm Abusupiyan Magomedov. He notes that Abus is hittable and Pereira hits hard, and that Pereira should replicate Bruno Ferreira's success but without letting up. He is more confident now than in his initial breakdown, though he cautions about Pereira's cardio.

Odds tightening; may hold off if it goes to even money
"Michelle should beat the [__] out of this guy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira, dismissing his loss to Anthony Hernandez as irrelevant since Hernandez would do the same to Magomedov. He criticizes Magomedov's poor cardio and durability, noting he slows down after the first round. He expects Pereira to win by knockout, possibly in the second round.

second round knockout
"Give me Michelle Pereira to get back on track. I'll take Pereira to win this fight. I'll say he wins it by knockout. I'll say second round knockout for Michelle Pereira."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Connor picks Pereira because he is a much more evolved and athletic fighter compared to Magomedov, who has a limited game based on a one-two and top control. Pereira has shown growth and patience, and his speed and power will be too much for Magomedov's robotic striking. Connor notes that Magomedov's wins have aged poorly and he has been exposed by any decent fighter.

"Michelle Padera is an actually very good fighter who has learned a lot and evolved a lot over time, an incredible athlete."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host likes Pereira's explosivity, athleticism, and power to shut down Magomedov's grappling, and expects Pereira to force a break and get a second or third round TKO.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think his explosivity, athleticism, and power will shut down the grappling game of Momedov... I think Pereira will force him to break eventually getting that second or third round TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov as an underdog. He criticizes Pereira's cardio and lack of MMA training, saying he gasses if he doesn't finish early. He notes Magomedov's improvements in grappling and cardio, and his reach advantage. He expects Magomedov to weather Pereira's early storm and win a decision, possibly chopping up Pereira's leg.

"I'm going with Abbas Magamemedov as an underdog. I think Abbas Magdov got a ton of [__] for not looking good against Strickland and also gassing out in that fight. But since then he has shown improvements."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Pereira, emphasizing that Magomedov's game is one-dimensional and relies on size and pressure. Once a fighter is good enough to test him, Magomedov falls apart. Pereira has the speed and skill to counter Magomedov's takedowns and striking. Zane also notes that Magomedov's losses have aged well but his wins have not, and he is essentially a 'quadruple A' fighter.

"I trust put it at this point to come out the other side of a rough start or whatever, and there's not that much depth to Maga Madoff's game at all."
TKO (elbows) R5 2:22 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Hernandez 0 152 of 212 71% 219 of 293 10 of 29 34% 0 0 15:42
Michel Pereira 0 24 of 53 45% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Hernandez 0 27 of 52 51% 30 of 55 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:25
Michel Pereira 0 15 of 34 44% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Anthony Hernandez 0 30 of 47 63% 47 of 68 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:18
Michel Pereira 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:35
3 Anthony Hernandez 0 44 of 55 80% 64 of 77 2 of 6 33% 0 0 4:17
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 8 37% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Anthony Hernandez 0 29 of 35 82% 48 of 62 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:35
Michel Pereira 0 3 of 3 100% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
5 Anthony Hernandez 0 22 of 23 95% 30 of 31 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:07
Michel Pereira 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Hernandez 152 of 212 71% 125 of 182 22 of 24 5 of 6 43 of 81 12 of 14 97 of 117
Michel Pereira 24 of 53 45% 8 of 27 16 of 26 0 of 0 20 of 45 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Hernandez 27 of 52 51% 20 of 42 5 of 7 2 of 3 17 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7
Michel Pereira 15 of 34 44% 7 of 19 8 of 15 0 of 0 12 of 28 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Anthony Hernandez 30 of 47 63% 25 of 42 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 15 0 of 1 21 of 31
Michel Pereira 2 of 7 28% 0 of 4 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Anthony Hernandez 44 of 55 80% 31 of 42 11 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 15 4 of 4 32 of 36
Michel Pereira 3 of 8 37% 1 of 4 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Anthony Hernandez 29 of 35 82% 28 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 3 of 3 21 of 26
Michel Pereira 3 of 3 100% 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Anthony Hernandez 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 17 of 17
Michel Pereira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira as an underdog, having bet on him at +135. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and grappling are too much for Anthony Hernandez, whose only path to victory is grappling. He thinks Pereira is the more dynamic and dangerous fighter, and that Hernandez cannot out-strike him. He notes Pereira's recent success at middleweight and dismisses cardio concerns, saying Pereira has shown he can maintain pace. He is confident Pereira wins.

bet on Pereira at +135
"Michelle P is the pick and I think we're going to Rattle off a couple of Underdog wins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez by third-round submission. He sees it as Pereira early, Hernandez late. Pereira has three quick wins but gasses; Hernandez has great cardio and grappling. If Hernandez survives the first five to seven minutes, he will take over, take Pereira down, and finish him in the third round. He mentions a good live bet spot.

third round submission, live bet
"I like Hernandez here probably a good live bet spot for sure um but yeah I like Hernandez to get it done I'll say third round submission for for Anthony Hernandez"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, comparing his style to a larger, more skilled Tristan Connelly who will make Pereira pay for every bad decision. He notes that Hernandez's pace and pressure grappling are exactly the kind of game that troubled Pereira in the past. However, he acknowledges that Hernandez might get knocked out early, as he has been hurt in many of his recent wins.

"I am very much inclined to pick Anthony Hernandez while also having to acknowledge that he might just get dusted"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)
Anthony Hernandez

Lucrative James believes Fluffy Hernandez will overwhelm Sean Strickland with constant forward pressure, takedown attempts, and volume. He notes that Strickland struggles when opponents don't let him establish his jab and one-two rhythm. James predicts Hernandez will win a decision by outworking Strickland over five rounds.

"I think Fluffy Hernandez has a lot of volume... he's going to walk forward, shoot takedowns, throw kicks, throw punches... I believe that is the way to offset Shawn's game entirely."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Hernandez

Pereira will be dangerous in the opening five minutes, but Hernandez has done a great job wearing opponents down, keeping them in the clinch, taking them down, and utilizing submission attempts. Hernandez will wear Pereira down and get a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think that Hernandez has done a great job in terms of finding ways to wear opponents down keep them in the clinch take them to the ground Matt return them utilize a ton of submission attempts but eventually wear …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The Guru picks Pereira despite acknowledging Hernandez's grappling skills. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and body work will be too much, predicting an early finish by TKO or submission. He notes Pereira has finished all his middleweight opponents quickly and envisions Pereira stuffing a takedown, landing knees to the body, and getting a guillotine or rear-naked choke.

early finish, TKO or submission, body work
"I'm going to go Mel P I think he's two athletic too strong too powerful"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Pereira because of his insane speed at middleweight, which he believes Hernandez will not be ready for. He acknowledges that if Hernandez survives the early onslaught, he will likely take over with pressure and grappling, but Zane trusts Pereira's athleticism to get the job done early. He notes that Pereira has learned to pace himself after the Tristan Connelly loss, but still has that loss in him.

Pereira opened at +132, now +115; Hernandez opened -147, now -128
"I am gonna take Pereira cuz he's just so goddamn fast at middleweight"
WIN vs Ihor Potieria
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:54 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Ihor Potieria 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:09
Ihor Potieria 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 6 of 10 60% 4 of 7 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 4
Ihor Potieria 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 6 of 10 60% 4 of 7 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 4
Ihor Potieria 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo is confident in Pereira, citing his speed, power, creativity, and grappling. He notes Potieria is a technical striker but hittable and with poor takedown defense. He expects Pereira to win by finish.

Angelo says 'he probably wins by finish'
"Michelle peda is the pick and he probably wins by finish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady is high on Pereira's middleweight resurgence, noting his two quick finishes. He views Potieria as a step down and believes Pereira will knock him out in the first round, possibly mid to late.

"I think he Sparks Pia I think he does it in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody picks Pereira, noting his improved fight IQ, cardio, and well-roundedness at middleweight. He believes Potieria is a one-dimensional knockout artist with poor durability and cardio. Cody expects Pereira to win, likely by knockout.

Pereira by KO
"I think he wins probably by knockout..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Michel Pereira. He notes that Pereira has chilled out his wild style since gassing out against Tristan Connelly, and has been on a seven-fight winning streak. Vreeland thinks Pereira will win easily, though he doesn't elaborate on a specific method. He later mentions that Pereira's submission prop has moved from +650 to +370, indicating the books are aware of his submission threat.

"I think he was gassing himself out being a wild man so yeah yeah that that's his lost to Tristan Connelly right like that's how he lost he's been weird chose not to do that from then on"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Daniel Vreeland leans with Pereira but considers it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Potieria's recent improvements, including better cardio and confidence, but believes Pereira's top-15 trajectory and finishing ability give him the edge. He suggests that Pereira's decision prop at +550 might be a better value than the moneyline, as Potieria could last the distance.

Pereira by decision +550
"I'm gonna lean with Michelle but I'mma keep it a buck as always I think this is a dogger pass situation"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Jeff Fox is very confident in Michel Pereira, calling him a 'demolisher' and noting his seven-fight winning streak since two losses. Fox explains that one loss was due to an illegal knee against Diego Sanchez, and the other was a short-notice grappling loss to Tristan Connelly. Since then, Pereira has been more measured and finished opponents like Andre Petroski. Fox believes Potieria is not UFC caliber, with wins only over aged fighters like Shogun. He expects Pereira to do whatever he wants, and later in the show he picks Pereira by submission for the Hungry Man parlay.

Pereira by submission +370 (part of Hungry Man parlay)
"I don't think he's UFC caliber if I'm being completely honest with potier I think they're giving Michelle paa a chance to do whatever he wants in there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

Pereira is on a crazy run, harnessing his big striking power over 15 minutes. His speed and power advantage will be enough to find Potieria's chin and put him out clean.

knockout
"I expect his speed and power advantage to be more than enough for him to go out there and find the chin of portieria and putting him out clean"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, highlighting his 8-2 UFC record, athleticism, and evolution into a winning style. He dismisses Potieria's chances, citing his poor durability, cardio, and ground game. Paul sees Pereira as a rightful favorite.

"Gotta go with Pereira... I understand why he's the big favorite."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira, praising his skills at middleweight and noting that welterweights often make better middleweights. He highlights Pereira's wins over Andre Petroski and Maxime Gremont, and predicts a first-round rear-naked choke. He criticizes Potieria's record and recent performances, including a loss to Shogun Rua.

rear naked choke round one
"I'm going to say rear naked choke round one for Mel per"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:01 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:18
Michał Oleksiejczuk 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 11 of 15 73% 5 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 11 of 15 73% 5 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
Michał Oleksiejczuk 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, citing his better cardio, power, and grappling. He notes Oleksiejczuk has a great chin but can fade. He has a half-unit bet on Pereira at -130, but keeps it small because Oleksiejczuk could survive early and outpoint him.

Half unit bet on Pereira at -130.
"I still think P wins this fight and I do like the odds at minus 130 I've got a little bit of a bet on that as well half a unit on P here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Big Brady picks Michał Oleksiejczuk to win by decision. He notes that while Pereira has a BJJ black belt, he doesn't wrestle often and lacks the cardio to grapple for 15 minutes. He expects the fight to stay on the feet, where Oleksiejczuk's forward pressure, body work, and volume will wear down Pereira and win the later rounds.

win by decision
"I'm going to go Mel o to win this fight Win It by decision I think the bodyw work's going to come into play the cardio the volume is all going to come into play"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody notes that Pereira has matured and now fights more conservatively, using his accuracy and wrestling. He thinks Oleksiejczuk is a reckless brawler with poor takedown defense, and Pereira will counter him and mix in takedowns to win a decision.

"I will go with Pereira"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

Oleksiejczuk has great durability and forward pressure, marching forward and breaking opponents with his boxing. He has eaten clean shots and continued to push. Pereira is dangerous early with his unorthodox power, but Oleksiejczuk's durability should allow him to weather the early storm. As the fight goes on, Oleksiejczuk will start to catch Pereira, coral him against the cage, and land combinations. I expect Oleksiejczuk to get a finish in the second or third round, possibly by knockout.

Oleksiejczuk by knockout, live betting Oleksiejczuk after first round
"I have to lean with the O shuk side here as I believe that his durability will allow him to kind of just way through the early threat that Pera normally uh implements in his fights and from there I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul agrees, highlighting Pereira's improved fight IQ and the fact that he looked great at 185. He thinks Oleksiejczuk's wrestling is exploitable and that Pereira has multiple ways to win.

"Pereira is the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michał Oleksiejczuk

The MMA Guru picks Michał Oleksiejczuk, citing concerns about Michel Pereira's finishing ability and cardio. He notes Pereira failed to finish chinny fighters like Andre Fialho and Nico Price, and that Oleksiejczuk is extremely tough and has power. He predicts Oleksiejczuk will pressure Pereira, take him down, and finish with a body shot TKO in round two.

round two body shot TKO
"I'm GNA say round two body shot TKO from maau Alex huk"
TKO (punches) R1 1:06 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andre Petroski 1 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andre Petroski 1 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 6 of 18 33% 5 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Petroski 6 of 18 33% 5 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 12
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michel Pereira vs. Andre Petroski
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-180), Petroski (+150)

Round 1
Action shifts to the middleweight division, where Pereira (28-11, 6-2 UFC) takes on Andrei Petroski (10-1, 5-0 UFC) in one of the more anticipated bouts on the card. Petroski fills in for Marc-Andre Barriault on short notice. Tognoni steps up to preside over the match. Petroski takes the center of the cage, with his Brazilian counterpart bouncing on the balls of his feet. Pereira using stance switches and feints to keep him guessing.
Pereira floors him with a thudding right hand and buries him with standing-to-ground punches. Petroski never intelligently defended himself once the barrage started
.

The Official Result
Michel Pereira def. Andre Petroski—TKO (Punches) 1:06 R1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo is confident in Michel Pereira due to Petroski stepping up on short notice with questionable cardio. He notes Pereira is taller, has decent cardio, and is the busier fighter. He thinks Petroski's cardio issues will be exacerbated by the short notice, and Pereira should win.

"I'm going to go Michelle P here and I'm pretty confident in that and it's really because of the short notice"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andre Petroski

Big Brady picks Andre Petroski to win by third-round TKO. He notes Pereira has only fought strikers and lost to grappler Tristan Connelly, while Petroski is a big middleweight with strong grappling. He expects both to tire, but Petroski's cardio holds up and he gets a late finish.

Petroski by TKO in round 3
"I'm going to take patoski here I'm sure I'm going to be absolutely on Island here but I think this fight's going to be very close and competitive and I'm going to say pataski goes out there and finishes Pereira …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Cody picks Pereira, emphasizing his excellent takedown defense and the fact that Petroski relies heavily on takedowns. He notes that Petroski gasses out and that judges are now scoring damage and volume over control time. Cody believes Pereira's striking and cardio advantage will carry him, and that Petroski's path to victory is narrow.

"Michelle Pereira I certainly don't mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host picks Michel Pereira but is queasy about the minus 220 price due to Petroski's early grappling danger. He expects violence and a late stoppage, specifically a third-round knockout by Pereira. He suggests the under as a better bet if the price is right.

Pereira by third round knockout; under 1.5 rounds if plus money
"I'm going to go with Pereira here not so hot on the money line but I feel like vience is going to be the spot it's going to be Pereira by third round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, citing his takedown defense (92% in UFC) and improved fight IQ. He notes that Pereira has stopped doing reckless moves and is fighting more fundamentally. Paul believes Pereira's cardio will be better at 185 lbs and that he can stuff Petroski's takedowns and out-strike him. He acknowledges the price (-200) is steep but thinks Pereira wins.

Over 2.5 rounds at -105
"I'll pick Pereira"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira to win by TKO over Andre Petroski. He argues that welterweights moving up to middleweight are technically better, citing examples. He criticizes Petroski's last performance against Gerald Meerschaert, saying he looked terrible and took heavy damage. He notes Petroski is fighting on short notice (8 weeks after a war) and doesn't trust his cardio. He believes Pereira has a massive striking advantage and explosive hips to get back up if taken down.

TKO
"I'm going to go Mel paa I think he's got much better striking much better technique"