Career Averages - Jan Błachowicz
Career Averages - Nikita Krylov
Jan Błachowicz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 84 of 149 | 56% | 100 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 80 of 140 | 57% | 98 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 48 of 84 | 57% | 50 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 84 of 149 | 56% | 56 of 112 | 11 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 74 of 135 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 80 of 140 | 57% | 69 of 127 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 52 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 52 | 48% | 13 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 21 of 44 | 47% | 10 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 13 | 84% | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 32 of 51 | 62% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 48 of 84 | 57% | 36 of 68 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-135), Guskov (+114)
Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Both men opening cautiously. Balchowicz is working leg kicks early, but Guskov is answering in kind. Guskov sticks a jab then avoids his opponent’s response. Guskov looks hesitant to engage, respecting Blachowicz’s power. The Pole continues to chip away with periodic low kicks. Blachowicz misses a double jab and Guskov briefly rattles him with a counter offering. A heavy jab from Blachowicz connects. They trade leg kicks. Another low kick from the Pole lands. Guskov responds with an inside leg kick. For the majority of the round, it’s been jabs and leg kicks from both men. Balchowicz pressures and lands a two-punch combination, then goes back to the leg kick. Guskov flurries with a combination late in the period. Balchowicz kicks the body before time expires in a slow-paced frame.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz comes out pumping his jab before going back to the low kick. Guskov misses a high kick. Another jab-low kick combination lands for Blachowicz, but that’s when Guskov drops him as the Pole is moving backwards. Guskov dives into top position, where he tees off with ground-and-pound. Blachowicz seems to have recovered, as he attempts a heel hook. Blachowicz eats some more ground-and-pound as a trade-off for the leg lock. Guskov frees himself and looks to punish his foe from above. Guskov grinds his forearm into Blachowicz’s face and then drops some heavy elbows. Blachowicz is covering up, but he’s been split open by the onslaught. A methodical Guskov drops more elbows as he moves into half guard. Another elbow draws a visible grimace from the Pole. Blachowicz is just trying to survive the round by holding Guskov close to him. Another series of elbows land for Guskov as the round draws to a close. Blachowicz will survive, but it was one-way traffic.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Guskov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Round 3
The combatants hug at the start of the round. Guskov lands a right hand. Blachowicz targets the legs again, but a quick right hand connects for Guskov in response. Guskov’s left calf is reddened from Blachowicz’s attacks throughout the fight. Blachowicz leaps in and partially lands a left hook. Guskov tags Blachowicz with a couple laser rights, and he’s taking advantage of his speed. Blachowicz plods forward and lands a jab. Another heavy leg kick for the former champ. Another hard right connects for Guskov. Blachowicz is increasing his aggression and he lands some heavy hooks in close. Blachowicz goes back to the leg kick. Guskov seems to have slowed down somewhat in this round. He counters Blachowicz well nonetheless in an exchange. Blachowicz kicks the body. Blachowicz keeps the pressure on and just misses a heavy right hand .The Pole sticks a crisp jab. Guskov’s output is waning down the stretch. Blachowicz lunges in and lands a left hook. Blachowicz is in pursuit and he manages to drop Guskov near the fence in the waning seconds. Guskov gets to his feet and Blachowicz continues to unload until the horn. A great sense of urgency down the stretch from Blachowicz.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (28-28)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov is Declared a Majority Draw (29-28, 28-28, 28-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.
Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.
Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.
Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.
Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.
The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.
Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.
The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.
Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 59 of 131 | 45% | 59 of 131 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 75 of 157 | 47% | 75 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 59 of 131 | 45% | 17 of 67 | 10 of 26 | 32 of 38 | 59 of 131 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 75 of 157 | 47% | 19 of 87 | 6 of 15 | 50 of 55 | 74 of 156 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 18 of 31 | 58% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 16 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 32 | 46% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 16 of 33 | 48% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 60 | 48% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 7 | 20 of 23 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 67 | 37% | 8 of 40 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 31 of 65 | 47% | 11 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 20 | 31 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ulberg (-265), Blachowicz (+215)
Round 1
Marc Goddard will officiate this light heavyweight showdown. Ulberg lands a low kick and a jab as he circles on the outside. Blachowicz lands a leg kick of his own, but Ulberg snaps off a jab. It’s an extended feeling-out process so far. Ulberg with a leg kick followed by a lead left hand. Blachowicz connects with a heavy leg kick. Ulberg lands a front kick down the middle. A low kick from the Pole has an impact on Ulberg. Blachowicz partially lands a high kick. The ex champ continues to chop away at Ulberg’s legs. Blachowicz moves in with a jab and Ulberg circles out. Ulberg is also staying busy with low kicks. Blachowicz’s appear to have more impact. Ulberg sticks a jab just before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz goes right back to work with the low kicks. Ulberg steps in with a punching combination. Ulberg lands a kick to the body and a low kick, then ducks under a power punch from his Polish opponent. Ulberg with a jab and Blachowicz punches the body. Ulberg with more leg kicks. Blachowicz pressures with a couple of power shots, but Ulberg counters effectively and the Pole stumbles away. They trade again and both land. The action is picking up, and Ulberg lands a knee. More low kicks by Ulberg. Blachowicz responds with a heavy outside leg kick. Ulberg lands a lead hook. Ulberg stays busy chipping away at the legs. Blachowicz with another low kick. A solid jab lands for the Pole. Ulberg ends the round probing at the legs.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg
Round 3
Both men open by attacking the legs, as has been the strategy throughout. Ulberg is first to shoot and he presses his foe into the cage. Blachowicz is too strong and he shrugs it off. Ulberg lands a jab and just misses the mark on a straight right. Another leg kick for Blachowicz. Ulberg answers with a pair of inside low kicks. Blachowicz with a knee and a jab, and Ulberg fires back. Blachowicz charges forward but can’t connect. Blachowicz backs his man up with a jab. But Ulberg returns fire and lands a jab. He follows up with a right hand. Ulberg lands a counter left hook and Blachowicz answers with a body kick. Neither man has been able to separate himself in this fight. Ulberg finds the range on a jab. The Kiwi works the inside and outside of his foe’s leg with kicks. Blachowicz applies pressure down the stretch, but Ulberg might have clipped the Pole with a counter during a final exchange.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Ulberg)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Blachowicz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Ulberg)
The Official Result
Carlos Ulberg def. Jan Blachowicz via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.
Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.
Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.
The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.
The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.
Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 52 of 81 | 64% | 82 of 117 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 70 of 92 | 76% | 112 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 17 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 32 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 33 of 47 | 70% | 54 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 35 of 42 | 83% | 46 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 52 of 81 | 64% | 41 of 66 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 41 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 70 of 92 | 76% | 26 of 46 | 23 of 24 | 21 of 22 | 62 of 83 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 33 of 47 | 70% | 13 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 28 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 26 of 46 | 56% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 35 of 42 | 83% | 12 of 19 | 13 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 33 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)
Round 1
The year is 2023, and for the second time in the last several months, there is no light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Once the glamour division, a litany of injuries and vacated belts left the throne unclaimed. This 205-pound clash will not be for the vacant strap, as some had expected, and instead will take place across three rounds. The victor will be sitting pretty for that next available opening, and former kingpin Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) and ex-middleweight champ Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC) are positively salivating at the opportunity that awaits the triumphant man tonight. Referee Marc Goddard is on high alert for the next 15 minutes or less, although it has no bad blood so he can breathe a slight sigh of relief. The hulking light heavyweights bump fists, and they swat at one another with quick punches. Blachowicz ducks down in pursuit of a single, and he lifts Pereira’s leg up but cannot hold him down. Pereira keeps his back to the wall and wraps an arm around the neck, and he cinches his other arm around and fastens the grip to make it excruciatingly tight early. The Polish fighter is not remotely concerned, and he re-adjusts himself to drop down low enough to thwart the choke. Blachowicz leans heavily on his man while he doggedly pursues a single, and he uses heel strikes to the back of Blachowicz’ thigh and calf. Blachowicz imposes his weight on his man, and he manages to drag Pereira to the mat. Blachowicz snakes his legs around the waist to get hold of the body triangle, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke. The grip is on the chin and not beneath it, so Blachowicz changes his hands to try to slide it in. Pereira hand-fights to stop the choke, but Blachowicz is still on his back with his body lock tight. Blachowicz tries to keep himself leaned against the fence to stop Pereira from sliding him out the back door, and he lands one single strike before looking to put his right arm around the head. The Brazilian keeps himself out of submission danger, and he lowers himself down to puts himself in a worse position than before. Blachowicz gets the choke again, and he nearly flattens Pereira out. Pereira once more protects his neck, so Blachowicz decides to smack him upside the head with any free hand. Blachowicz keeps the lock tight around the waist, even as he cannot get the choke, and he elects to ride out the round in this dominant position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The 205ers do not decide to touch gloves to engage this round, and Blachowicz is in the center of the cage immediately and he backs off to dodge a jab and check a leg kick. Blachowicz jabs the body in response, and Pereira sits down on a low kick. Blachowicz responds in kind, and Pereira gets off a solid body shot. Blachowicz intercepts the kickboxer with a short left hook, and Blachowicz flicks out several jabs. Blachowicz turns his shin to prevent a low kick from getting through, and Pereira marks the body with another straight punch. Blachowicz responds with his own body shot, and they both jab one another. Pereira sweeps the leg with a hard calf kick, and Blachowicz has to take a step to shake it out. Pereira lands another, and Blachowicz steps in with a hard left hook. Blachowicz follows it with a right hand, and Pereira is able to shake it out but overswings and opens himself up. This allows the Polish fighter to secure a double, where he plants Pereira on his back. Blachowicz stays heavy on top and opens up with a few strikes, and “Poatan” responds with a sharp elbow that gets through. Pereira tries to scoot himself to the fence in order to fight his way back to his feet, and he succeeds in getting to a knee and then standing. Pereira sneaks in short knees as Blachowicz continues to press on him, and Blachowicz gives him a stern knee to the solar plexus as he holds on. Pereira suddenly spins out quickly, and he appears the fresher fighter as he tosses out a head kick that Blachowicz barely blocks. Pereira comes at him with a body shot, and Blachowicz responds with a left over the top. Pereira stings Blachowicz with a left hook, and Blachowicz charges with a takedown that fails. Blachowicz backs off when he gets popped with a right, and the two tie up again with 40 seconds remaining. They both get in knees, and Pereira breaks off with two uppercuts and a body shot. Pereira corners his man and starts teeing off on him with short but dangerous shots, and Blachowicz leans back against the fence and is taking damage. Blachowicz responds with one left hook, and he takes a very heavy breath. Pereira lands two right hands, and Blachowicz drops down to shoot in but time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 3
The body language could scarcely look more different between the two, as Blachowicz is clearly spent while Pereira is psyched up. Both fighters come together to engage in the last round, and Blachowicz lumbers forward kicking low. Blachowicz is just able to avoid a massive uppercut, and the two trade jabs. Pereira batters his foe’s lead calf, which is nastily welted. Blachowicz musters his energy with a pair of punches and a body kick, and Pereira replies with a stern calf kick to the same spot. Pereira jabs the body, and he peppers the lead wheel. Blachowicz blitzes him with a few hooks, and Pereira shrugs at him. Pereira walks down his foe instead of attacking recklessly, and he takes a solid low kick as he come forward. Pereira gives him a jab to think about, and he parries a few punches that come his way. Blachowicz tries to check a kick, and he absorbs a flush right hand to the midsection. Blachowicz huffs and puffs and still reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Pereira beats him to the punch with a few punches right back at him. Blachowicz scores a clean left hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Pereira stands him up but gets shoved back to the wall, although he is able to stave Blachowicz off. Blachowicz scores a left on the break, and he dings Pereira with another left hand. Blachowicz snaps the head back with a jab, and he charges forward but misses with two strikes. Blachowicz sits down on a leg kick, and the shins crack together. Both men land flush with blows, and Pereira hits the harder of the two and makes Blachowicz nod at him. Blachowicz walks through a left hook and eats a jab to the body, and he races forward swinging hands. Pereira stuffs a takedown, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a few punches. With 45 seconds left in the fight, Blachowicz is able to grab Pereira’s leg and sling him to the mat. When he lands in full guard, Blachowicz sits on top and looks for any energy he has to land strikes. Stacking Pereira up with seconds to spare, Blachowicz drops down hammerfists and concludes the fight on top. This one goes the distance, and it could be an extremely close one depending on how the final round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with hesitation, acknowledging that Jan's takedowns are a threat. He believes Pereira is the more technical striker with possibly more power, and that he will be fine defending takedowns or getting back up. However, he is worried about Pereira's chin after being knocked out three months ago. He is not betting on this fight but will look at props like most significant strikes.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by second-round submission. He emphasizes Błachowicz's grappling advantage, noting he took down Israel Adesanya and controlled him. He criticizes Pereira's ground game, which looked poor against Adesanya. He hopes Błachowicz fights smart and uses wrestling, but is not 100% sure he will. If he does, it's an easy win.
Cody picks Błachowicz based on the takedown threat, noting Pereira's mediocre takedown defense and Błachowicz's success against Israel Adesanya by taking him down. He believes if Błachowicz gets top control, Pereira won't get up. He mentions the over 2 takedowns prop for Błachowicz. He hasn't bet it but is confident in the pick.
James picks Jan but with low confidence, citing volatility from Pereira's weight jump, recent knockout loss, and Jan's age. He thinks Jan is an underrated striker with good leg kicks and can compete on the feet, but he also notes Jan is hittable with the left hook. He believes Jan's path to victory includes takedowns, but he cannot guarantee Jan will wrestle.
Blachowicz's underrated striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be the difference. He can survive Pereira's power and find his way into the pocket to grind him out. Pereira hasn't faced someone of Blachowicz's size and grappling. I'm leaning Blachowicz by submission late, but not a lot of conviction.
Paul picks Pereira, citing Błachowicz's age (40) and lack of recent wrestling success—only one takedown in his last nine fights (against Adesanya). He argues Błachowicz is not a high-level wrestler and fights at a slow pace, which plays into Pereira's striking. He notes Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and improved takedown defense. He sees value at plus money.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 79 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 78 of 184 | 42% | 191 of 312 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 11:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 55 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 55 of 117 | 47% | 19 of 71 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 50 of 109 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 78 of 184 | 42% | 49 of 139 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 134 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 35 | 40% | 3 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 43 | 44% | 10 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 43 | 53% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 37 | 35% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 34 | 50% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 48 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 35 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-280), Blachowicz (+235)
Round 1
In this headliner, the vacant light heavyweight strap is on the line, as champ Jiri Prochazka surrendered it due to a severe shoulder injury. Once expecting to fight three rounds tonight, ex-titleholder Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC) and the streaking Dagestani wrestle-kickboxer Ankalaev (17-1, 9-1 UFC) are now going for five rounds and 10ish pounds of gold. While they are both touted for knockout power, they each post exactly nine knockouts in their respective careers, which account for 31% of the Polish fighter’s victories compared to 53% for the Russian. Whether it all ends by knockout, submission, decision or something else, referee Marc Goddard draws the final charge for this championship contest. The 205-pound challengers – this is a vacant title – stoically refuse to touch gloves to seal the cage around them, and it’s on with the show. Blachowicz moves to the middle of the cage to commence the match, and he backs off when Ankalaev throws a right hand at him. Blachowicz kicks the low calf, and he swats away a jab. Blachowicz sits down on another low kick, and he absorbs a front kick to the breadbasket for his work. Ankalaev jabs at the body, and Blachowicz pursues another calf kick. Ankalaev just misses with a left hand over the top, and he catches Blachowicz with a right hand as the Polish fighter comes at him. Ankalaev measures out with a right hook, and he scoots away before Blachowicz can plunk him with a haymaker. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he backs away when Ankalaev bears down on him with a string of punches. The inside kick from Blachowicz irritates his opponent, and he connects with a right hand over the top that bounces off the forehead. The light heavyweights trade in the pocket, and Blachowicz slides back to rip a kick to the body. Ankalaev fires off a head kick after a lull in the action, but this careens off the guard to little effect. When the Russian tries to give chase, Blachowicz backpedals and evades the blows. Blachowicz sinks in another body kick, and Ankalaev counters him and pushes the ex-champ back with a front kick. The front kick from Ankalaev may be his best weapon, as he gets Blachowicz’ attention every time he lands it. Ankalaev barely ducks a left hook on his way forward, and he slaps a body kick home. Ankalaev checks a low kick, and the two tentatively walk one another down until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The second round opens with a far fiercer exchange, as Blachowicz loads up on punches that miss while Ankalaev chambers and fires off a head kick that skims off the dome. Blachowicz has second thoughts about blitzing, and settles down on a calf kick again. Blachowicz scores a right hand over the top, and he sneaks a left hook around the guard. The Russian sneaks up another high kick, but this too is guarded. The two light heavyweights swing and miss with their kicks, and Ankalaev wings two punches that breeze past the intended target. Blachowicz continues to target the low calf of his adversary, and they clash shins at the same time when kicking. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he darts forward with an uppercut to redden the face of the Russian. Ankalaev loads up on a big right hand, but his straight left is far more accurate. Blachowicz gets in sweeping kick to the shin, and this causes a stumble from Ankalaev, who is wearing it. Blachowicz blasts his man with another kick, and Ankalaev falls over briefly before charging forward, Blachowicz whips a kick to the side, and Ankalaev catches it and pushes forward for a possible takedown. Blachowicz tees off with his leg in the air, keeping his balance and belting Ankalaev with unanswered fists. When Ankalaev releases it and backs away, he changes stances. This prompts Blachowicz to attack the newly front calf, and this takes the sting out of an overhand right from the Russian. Blachowicz does not slow down pounding on the calf, and Ankalaev charges for a takedown. He does not get it before the round ends. and he limps back to his corner in serious pain.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 3
Ankalaev races forward to attack in the third round, and after one landed punch, Blachowicz wrecks his leg once more. Ankalaev wobbles and changes his stance to orthodox, so Blachowicz kicks that other leg. Ankalaev strafes from left to right, pushing out a front kick but getting pushed away from a body kick. Like a lumberjack felling a mighty oak, Blachowicz continues chopping down any leg he can find, and each strike has an appreciable effect. Playing through the pain, Ankalaev wings a huge overhand right that grazes the side of the head, and he rushes forward to throw bombs. No longer willing to sit and get potshotted, Ankalaev steps in to unload with two hooks that Blachowicz eats like pierogis. The Russian continues pressuring forward, but Blachowicz greets him with two leg kicks that nearly down Ankalaev. Ankalaev hops back and considers holding his left leg in the air, only to bite down on his mouthpiece and sling leather. When the blows largely get blocked, he sprints forward for a failed takedown. Blachowicz’ takedown defense holds up and he manages to escape, as Ankalaev kicks him in the chest. Ankalaev eats one more calf kick and walks the former champ down, throwing kicks with both lets. A knee from Ankalaev comes up in the clinch, and Blachowicz groans. Goddard recognizes this and halts the action, as Blachowicz goes to a neutral corner to try to shake it out and adjust his neoprene ankle sleeves. When they resume, Ankalaev re-engages closely to not let Blachowicz kick him again, ending up in the clinch. Ankalaev lifts up a single and dumps Blachowicz to the canvas with 10 seconds to spare, and he gets in two elbows before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Ankalaev’s legs may be swollen and welted, but he is good to go. The Russian sprints forward with a surge of adrenaline to swing hammers, and he punches his way into a single-leg entry. Blachowicz meets him on the way forward with an uppercut, and he absorbs a knee to the body when Ankalaev clinches him up. Ankalaev keeps tightly pressed on his man while Blachowicz attempts to escape, and they trade knees on the inside. Ankalaev gets short knees off on the inside, thumping up the body of the former champ. Blachowicz bursts to get away, but Ankalaev races ahead and sweeps him off his feet. Ankalaev lands in the guard of his foe, which closes around his waist, but he does not mind as he punches Blachowicz in the face from this position. Ankalaev cannot get enough space to do much damage from his short shots, but he does take the back when Blachowicz turns. Ankalaev considers attempting his first submission in the form of a rear-naked choke, but settles to drum up punches on the side of the head. Blachowicz returns to a knee, and Ankalaev wrestles him right back down. Ankalaev drops down the occasional left hand while he keeps a leg trapped, sitting comfortably in half guard with Blachowicz pinned to his back. Ankalaev grinds until he finds a way to posture up, and then he stands to rain down a few power punches. The round ends before any serious damage comes from this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Round 5
There is a double glove touch and a hug to start off the last round, and Ankalaev shocks his foe shortly after the embrace with a punch salvo. Ankalaev hurts Blachowicz with a barrage of blows, but his real purpose is to put Blachowicz on his back. The former champ tumbles to his back, and Ankalaev happily jumps on top to pick up where he left off. The crowd showers them with boos as they slow down considerably, with Ankalaev holding on from top position while Blachowicz looks for a low-percentage kimura sweep. Ankalaev easily wriggles his arm out, and he takes an arm away and starts pounding on Blachowicz with left hands. Blachowicz responds with no-look elbows, but there is no steam on them as Ankalaev continues to pound on the downed Polish fighter. Ankalaev hammers with punches and elbows, and a few get through as Blachowicz has his right arm trapped. Ankalaev continues to batter Blachowicz, whose eye is busted open from the strikes, and Blachowicz groans loudly either from frustration, injury or exertion. Ankalaev allows his foe to turn to his back so that he can smack him with left hands, and Goddard tells Ankalaev to stay busy. Ankalaev answers with a number of short elbows, and Jan is stuck on his back taking non-fight-ending punishment. Ankalaev continues his methodical ground-and-pound breakdown, and Blachowicz sits up in hopes of break this up. Ankalaev grinds right to the bitter end, and the light heavyweights have left their grueling match in the hands of the judges. They conclude a night that started strong and fell flat in the marquee attractions.
When the scorecards are read, the crowd is baffled and quite upset. The first scorecard went to Blachowicz by a 48-47 tally, the second read 48-46 for Ankalaev, and the third ended up as a 47-47 for a remarkable split draw. The UFC light heavyweight throne remains vacant, and Blachowicz admits in his post-fight interview that he feels Ankalaev won the fight. When Ankalaev speaks, he demands his title in belief that he should have been the victor, and the ultra-honorable Blachowicz interrupts him to again say that the UFC should give the belt to Ankalaev. An apoplectic Ankalaev declares in his post-fight interview that he may not fight in the UFC again, because the judges took the win away from him. With this event in the books, the UFC has one more this year. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Ankalaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (49-46 Ankalaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Blachowicz)
The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz is Ruled a Split Draw (47-48, 48-46, 47-47)
Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.
Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.
Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.
Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 53 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 27 of 85 | 31% | 61 of 125 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 52 | 23% | 12 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 44 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 31 of 71 | 43% | 8 of 31 | 9 of 21 | 14 of 19 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 27 of 85 | 31% | 14 of 60 | 2 of 9 | 11 of 16 | 17 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 53 | 47% | 7 of 24 | 6 of 14 | 12 of 15 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 52 | 23% | 1 of 32 | 1 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rakic (-180) Blachowicz (+155)
Round 1
For a probable light heavyweight title eliminator, the lead-up to this fight has been somewhat subdued, but none of that matters once the cage door closes on Blachowicz, Rakic and referee Mark Smith, who draws the final assignment at “UFC Vegas 54.” Both fighters are in orthodox stance. Blachowicz lands a hard calf kick. Blachowicz with a jab and missed right cross, then another low kick. They exchange flurries of punches. Blachowicz with a nice left to the body, but comes away bleeding from over the left eye. Blachowicz lands a low kick and another left to the body, but he is clearly distracted by blood dripping into the eye from that cut. Blachowicz catches Rakic with a right hand that rocks him, and Rakic grabs a body lock for a takedown. He can’t get it, but seems to have recovered as they disengage. Rakic steps inside a body shot and drops for a takedown, but can’t get it. Blachowicz comes up short with a calf kick at the 30 second mark. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz’s cutman has momentarily stopped the bleeding over the left eye, but that will certainly bear close watching as the fight goes on. The former champ lands a glancing low kick. Rakic drops levels for a takedown, and he gets it, hoisting the leg for a big finish, but dives right into a triangle choke. Blachowicz clears the arm and tries to cinch it up, but Rakic escapes and sets up in Blachowicz’s full guard. Blachowicz closes his guard and works to control Rakic’s wrists, while Rakic throws short elbow strikes to the body and head. As the halfway point of the round passes, Blachowicz briefly opens his guard and looks to hip out, but gives up on the attempt. Rakic is heavy on top, chest to chest, staying busy but not doing too much damage. They scoot to the fence and Blachowicz sits up, but Rakic has the legs laced and arms locked behind him. Rakic moves to one side and uses head position to pin Blachowicz’s torso up against the fence. Blachowicz stands just as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 3
Rakic is active with his jab in the opening seconds, reaching out to touch Blachowicz twice and backing him off. Blachowicz steps in and lands a combination, then another Rakic jab dislodges his mouthpiece. He pops it back in, and seconds later he lands an outside low kick to Rakic’s lead left leg.
Rakic steps back and unexpectedly, the right leg buckles under him completely. The Austrian goes down in agony, cradling the stricken limb.
Blachowicz steps in, but sees the fight is over and refrains from inflicting any unnecessary harm. A moment later, referee Smith arrives to wave it off, a surprising and disappointing end to fight that had been building towards something good.
The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz def. Aleksandar Rakic R3 1:11 via TKO (Leg Injury)
Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.
Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 53 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 71 of 93 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 29 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 51 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 20 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 39 | 58% | 17 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 15 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 22 of 37 | 59% | 16 of 31 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 13 of 24 | 54% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
At long last, the main event of UFC 267 is here. A Cinderella story himself, Blachowicz (28-8, 11-5 UFC) will look to keep an iron grip on his throne thanks to his renowned Polish power against fellow Cinderellian fighter Teixeira (32-7, 15-5 UFC). It is feel-good story on both counts between the 38-year-old Blachowicz and the 42-year-old former challenger Teixeira, but one will have to lose when it’s all said and done. Referee Marc Goddard is ready for wherever the fight takes him, and the light heavyweights show each other the utmost of respect, touching gloves before throwing down. Blachowicz leads the dance with a thumping leg kick, and Teixeira ducks down after a right hand to fake an ankle pick. Blachowicz does not bite, and instead kicks the lead calf again. Teixeira swarms with a few punches, and he charges in for a double and lifts the champion off the ground before slamming him to the mat. Teixeira, in the center of the cage, is tightly grasped by Blachowicz’ closed guard. Blachowicz holds on to not allow Teixeira to get off much in the way of ground-and-pound, and he sneaks up a short but effective elbow in a defensive blow. Teixeira calmly starts to work some strikes from on top, not forcing anything or allowing Blachowicz to gain any space to kick off or otherwise fight his way back up to his feet. Teixeira utilizes the can opener, grabbing Blachowicz on the back of his neck and wrenching his head up, in an effort to open the guard up. Blachowicz does not appear to appreciate this, but he does not loosen up his guard posture. The challenger hacks down with a few elbows, each of them landing loudly. Blachowicz stays on his back, riding out this position for most of the round without taking a great deal of damage. Teixeira latches on to the can opener one last time, and Blachowicz wriggles his neck free as the horn blares. When they stand up, Blachowicz acknowledges to Teixeira that the Brazilian won that round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Round 2
The second frame begins as Blachowicz is tentative, jabbing out from a distance while not committing to follow-up strikes. Teixeira charges with strikes, and Blachowicz backs away and trips on the outskirts of the cage. When Teixeira ducks into a takedown after eating a body shot, Blachowicz pulls his leg out with all his might to get away. The Polish fighter scores a solid combination to make Teixeira pay for the try, and he dings him with a sharp uppercut. The Brazilian pursues a takedown, but Blachowicz is ready for this one this time, and he turns his foe around on the fence while starting to land some knees. Blachowicz pushes off and aims an uppercut, and he tries to time another when Teixeira shoots. The shots are more telegraphed, and as Blachowicz tries to counter with another uppercut, a looping left hand catches Blachowicz on the side of the head, hurting the champion. Instead of following up with the strikes, he pursues a single, and he manages to wrestle the champ to his back. Unlike the last round, Teixeira does not stay in guard for long, instead passing to mount like a hot knife through butter. Blachowicz eats shots from on top, and he turns over to surrender his back. Teixeira flattens him out instantly, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke and is ready to set the hook. Crushing the forearm grip with all his might, the choke does not even go under Blachowicz’ chin, squeezing the jaw like a vice. Knowing his time is up, Blachowicz surrenders and lives to fight another day. Unbelievable! At the age of 42, Teixeira is now a UFC champion, and he is the second-oldest champ in UFC history trailing only to Randy Couture at 45. As he says in his post-fight interview, promises done, and he comes home with the belt. He invites likely challenger Jiri Prochazka to the cage to face off with him, and he hopes to meet him in May. Prochazka does not join him in the Octagon, but he does pose in the crowd, excited for the opportunity. In a final moment of pure inspiration, the new champion tells people to never give up on their dreams. Next week, another pair of belts will be on the line at UFC 268 in New York, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Glover Teixeira def. Jan Blachowicz R2 3:02 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by knockout. He believes Jan is the better striker and will hurt Glover, who is chinny at 42. Glover's path is takedowns, but Jan has excellent takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights). He expects Jan to be calculated and not rush in, eventually knocking Glover out. He references Jan's performance against Adesanya.
Cody agrees Jan wins but disagrees on finish, thinking Jan is more of a decision fighter. He notes Jan's solid takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and cardio. He picks Jan but sees the fight going over 2.5 rounds, possibly a decision. He mentions Jan by decision is +300 but he's not confident in a finish.
Daniel picks Jan Błachowicz to defend his title, citing Jan's improved accuracy, timing, and ability to mix strikes and takedowns. He notes Jan's career turnaround and his wins over top competition like Dominick Reyes and Israel Adesanya. Daniel acknowledges Glover's dangerous ground game and toughness but believes Jan's composure and polish power will lead to a knockout. He emphasizes that Jan is a black belt and won't panic if Glover gets top position.
Błachowicz has Polish power and solid cardio, and he can stuff takedowns. Teixeira is slow and has been hurt in recent fights, relying on takedowns to bail him out. Błachowicz will find a knockout on the feet, likely in the first round.
Paul picks Jan Błachowicz by knockout, citing Jan's 'Polish power' and Glover's compromised chin. He notes Glover has been stunned in recent fights and thinks over five rounds Jan will crack that chin. He mentions the bet is a small play at +100 by KO, not a massive one.
The MMA Guru picks Jan Błachowicz to win by KO in the first round. He notes that Glover Teixeira is 41, takes damage in every fight, and has been dropped multiple times. He praises Błachowicz's takedown defense, finishing instinct, and reach advantage. He contrasts Błachowicz's composed finishing (separating and dropping hammer fists) with other opponents who rushed in and gave up position. He predicts Błachowicz will rock Glover, separate, and finish with hammer fists.
Nikita Krylov - Fight History
AJ is confident in Robert Whittaker in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and precision will be too much for Nikita Krylov, who has been knocked out recently. He expects a stoppage, possibly by knockout, and sees Whittaker as a contender at 205.
AJ is excited for Whittaker at light heavyweight, calling him a new mythical fighter. He believes Whittaker will be fast and strong at 205 and sees a pathway to gold there, unlike at middleweight where Chimaev and Du Plessis block him.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker by knockout in his light heavyweight debut. He believes Whittaker's speed and power will increase at 205, and that his karate-based striking and footwork will be too much for Krylov, who he considers washed. He expects Whittaker to fend off takedowns and land hard counters.
AJ believes Robert Whittaker will be faster and cleaner, and expects him to look good. He likes the moneyline at -135 and thinks Whittaker is live for a KO at +230. He notes Krylov has a suspect chin and expects Whittaker to win by knockout, possibly over 1.5 rounds.
AJ picks Robert Whittaker, believing he is live for the finish and that Krylov is washed. He thinks Whittaker at light heavyweight will be a beast and that Krylov has no path to victory.
AJ picks Whittaker to win by knockout, emphasizing his speed advantage and superior technique. He believes Whittaker's footwork and striking will be too much for Krylov, who has shown a weak chin recently. AJ notes that Whittaker's move to light heavyweight should benefit him, and that Krylov's offensive wrestling won't be a factor.
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker despite concerns about the weight move. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter everywhere—faster, cleaner striking, better wrestling. He thinks Krylov is not elite and Whittaker should win. He is surprised the odds are close and thinks Whittaker's skills will overcome the size disadvantage.
Angelo thinks Whittaker is the better fighter and should win, but questions the move to light heavyweight. He notes Whittaker was a welterweight and never a big middleweight, and that Krylov will be much larger. He believes Whittaker's skill will overcome the size disadvantage.
Big Brady does not pick a winner but bets on the under 2.5 rounds at -120 for 1.5 units. He notes both fighters are chinny and have been finished multiple times, and Krylov is one of the most violent fighters in the division with a high finish rate. He sees multiple ways the fight can end early, including a knockout from either side or a submission from Krylov. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He questions which fighter is more washed and concludes it's Krylov, noting Krylov's age, wars, and lack of wrestling recently. He acknowledges Whittaker's recent losses but believes he is still skilled and will be the better striker. He is concerned about Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and size disadvantage but thinks he can land a big shot on Krylov's suspect chin.
Big Brady leans towards Whittaker but is not confident. He calls it the '1800 gambler fight of the week' between two washed fighters. He notes Whittaker is moving up to light heavyweight and will be undersized, but Krylov has looked awful and no longer grapples. He thinks Whittaker is the better striker and might have better durability, but doesn't love the current -210 price. He might consider Whittaker by KO if the line is good.
Cody picks Whittaker, arguing that Krylov lacks heart and is a glass cannon. He believes Whittaker's experience and skill will overcome the weight jump, and that Krylov's wild style leaves openings. He notes Whittaker has fought bigger guys before.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov for the upset, questioning why the odds are not closer to pick'em. He notes that both fighters are past their prime, but Krylov has the size advantage and is an opportunistic finisher. Levi is concerned about Whittaker's chin and his move up to light heavyweight, believing Krylov's power and size could be decisive.
Jacob picks Robert Whittaker but worries about his chin and the power jump to light heavyweight. He notes that Krylov is chinny and Whittaker has blitzes down the middle that could knock him out. He placed a bet on Whittaker inside the distance because Krylov is hittable. He is cautious about the weight move but believes Whittaker is the better fighter.
Lucrative James picks Nikita Krylov via KO, comparing Whittaker's move to light heavyweight to Chris Weidman's failed attempt. He believes Whittaker's chin won't hold up against the size and power of a natural light heavyweight, and that Krylov's physicality will be too much. He notes Whittaker's skill advantage but expects a knockout finish inside the distance.
The host notes that Whittaker's odds have moved from -190 to -125, making it a more bettable line. He expects Whittaker's speed to be the difference, finding the chin early and often to secure a knockout.
The host leans with Whittaker's speed and power to find Krylov's chin for a knockout, but has low confidence due to Whittaker's move to light heavyweight and questions about durability and size. He would need a better price than -190 to bet.
Paul picks Whittaker but is very hesitant due to the move to 205 and Whittaker's age and recent performances. He notes Krylov's wildness and questionable chin, but worries about Whittaker's durability and power translation.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by KO in the first or second round. He believes Whittaker's technical striking and speed will be too much for Krylov. He notes that Krylov's only path to victory is power and aggression, but Whittaker can defend that. He predicts Whittaker will catch Krylov with a lead left hook as Krylov throws a high kick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 1 | 72 of 137 | 52% | 94 of 164 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 40 of 108 | 37% | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 25 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 1 | 39 of 69 | 56% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 72 of 137 | 52% | 25 of 76 | 22 of 34 | 25 of 27 | 64 of 128 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 40 of 108 | 37% | 35 of 101 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 10 of 28 | 35% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 23 of 40 | 57% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 32 | 34% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 39 of 69 | 56% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 16 | 12 of 14 | 35 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 18 of 55 | 32% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)
Round 1
A 205-pound smash-‘em-up derby keeps the action going, as the two men about to set foot in the cage are eying that new $25K finish bonus on top of the raised $100K for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC) may be gunning for the latter of those two bonus checks, given his 93% stoppage rate with 23 of his 28 finishes coming in Round 1. “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) will need to be on his best behavior when taking on the offensive force of the Ukrainian by way of Russia, and referee Marc Goddard will see to that. They touch gloves.
Krylov bounces back and forth on his heels, and he times a high kick that careens off the guard and a low kick that slaps off the front leg. When Krylov tosses out another naked leg kick, Bukauskas belts him with a pair of punches. Krylov gets away with another calf kick, and his subsequent offering to the midsection comes up short. Bukauskas winds up and hurls punches at his opponent, who backs straight up and is just out of range. Krylov attempts a single-leg entry, and he proceeds to press Bukauskas against the cage wall. Bukauskas looks to use a body lock when the first effort fails, and he works his foe’s knees while grinding on him. Krylov aims to slip his leg around Bukauskas’ to disrupt his balance, and he tackles the Lithuanian to the floor for a moment. Bukauskas bounces back up and gets pushed to the wall, and the crowd is not having it.
Krylov transitions from one takedown attempt to another, but Bukauskas is able to defend them and stay upright. Goddard claps for them to do more, and Krylov grabs hold of a single and lifts the leg up high. Bukauskas springs away and barely evades a head kick on the way out, and when he tries to engage, he gets caught with a right hand on the temple. Krylov peppers with kicks on the outside, and one of his low kicks is met with a blistering right hand that makes him take a quick count of his teeth. Bukauskas swats with a left and then a right hand, and Krylov springs into action with a kick and swinging fists that miss by a wide margin. Another Krylov blitz is met with counters, but he steels himself and shakes up “The Baltic Gladiator” with a right hand. Bukauskas retreats to gather his thoughts, and Krylov lets him off the hook as the two reach the round horn for the first time of any fight tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Round 2
The 205ers touch gloves to get started, and it takes a couple seconds before Krylov unveils his first offensive tactic of a body kick. Bukauskas replies with a one-two, and they both toss out kicks at the same time to different targets. Bukauskas clips Krylov with a left hand on the way out, and fists quickly fly in an exchange at the center of the cage. Krylov works the body with a kick, and this draws out some hard swings from Bukauskas that drive him back. The Ukrainian ducks a huge haymaker and engages in a clinch with hopes of scoring a takedown, but Bukauskas is able to stifle them and spin him around against the wire. They jockey for position and trade knees up the middle, with neither man gaining the upper hand as they stay at it.
Krylov gets off a solid knee to the breadbasket and shoots, but the takedown hits a wall. Goddard asks for them to do more, and they answer by shoving one another away. Krylov’s mouthpiece falls out, and he quickly puts it back in as Bukauskas lets him do so. Krylov lumbers forward and smacks Bukauskas in the temple with a lead-leg head kick, and he skims his man on the temple with a looping left. Bukauskas sits down on a chopping kick, and he slides away from the trio of punches aimed at his mug. Krylov narrowly evades bombs chucked at his chin, although Bukauskas is able to get him a few times. Krylov strikes back, with his blows having an impact as Bukauskas’ left cheek is swelling up fast. Krylov ducks down for a looping right, and he dodges a big right hand and manages to kick the body on the way out. Bukauskas overswings his right hand and is blocked, with “The Baltic Gladiator” hunting for that home run blow. He manages to get off a spinning back kick to the body, and they trade hands until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
The two reach the final round and share a fist bump before throwing caution to the wind. Both men lob huge hooks at one another, and they largely escape the damage from them thanks to just enough head movement. Krylov goes low to high with two kicks, and he steps in and blasts Bukauskas with a left hand. Krylov gets off another booming punch, and Bukauskas sits down on counters but largely comes up short. “The Miner” digs a kick to the midsection and is countered, but the damage is done as his kick connected. Bukauskas waits for the one big opening, and Krylov is dancing around the edges of range hitting him with anything he offers. Bukauskas snaps the head back with a solid left, but it is one-and-done before Krylov rushes at him to trade leather. Bukauskas clips him again, and Krylov pays no attention to the blow and plods ever forward. He works the body with a kick, and sways back from the looping counters.
Bukauskas lands a calf kick, and Krylov nods at him and doubles up on kicks from his rear leg. Bukauskas keeps his guard up to defend himself from the blows, and he winds up on a right hand that misses the mark. Krylov tanks two punches on the jaw and frustrates his foe with push kicks to the body. Krylov sneaks in a left hand while hurling heavy shots, and Bukauskas is left playing catch-up. They trade punches after Bukauskas absorbs a calf kick, and Bukauskas tries to take advantage of the strike by loading up on more. They miss, and the crowd boos. Krylov leads with a low kick into a jab, and he gets caught by a right hand and waves Bukauskas on for more. Bukauskas gives him more with a crisp left, and Krylov dances around and switches stances a few times. Krylov dodges a wheel kick and gets blazed with a right hand, and he is on a mission. Hearing the 10-second clapper, “The Miner” digs deep and unloads with a fire and fury while Bukauskas is overloading on his own strikes.
Krylov catches his man cleanly with a ferocious right hand that sets “The Baltic Gladiator” down and forces his eyes to roll around in his head. Bukauskas turns to try to recover, crawling to his knees to the fence, and Krylov races after him and batters him with destructive right hands. One particularly effective fist shuts Bukauskas’ lights out and his post arms give way, leading to Bukauskas collapsing on his face like a failed push-up.
Goddard sees that Bukauskas went out and rushes in to stop the fight, keeping the finish streak—and buzzer-beater pattern—alive today. It may have taken just about 15 minutes to get there, but Krylov registered a huge knockout after a close battle, his first since 2022 when he smoked Alexander Gustafsson.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Modestas Bukauskas R3 4:57 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.
Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.
Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.
Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.
Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.
James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.
The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.
Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 16 of 34 | 47% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 23 of 43 | 53% | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 16 of 34 | 47% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 23 of 43 | 53% | 20 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 17 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-190); Guskov (+160)
Round 1
In 40 professional outings, Krylov (30-10, 11-8 UFC) has only heard the final bell on four occasions. Not to be outdone, opponent Guskov (17-3, 3-1 UFC) has gone the distance a single time after 20 pro bouts. Referee Marc Goddard is well aware that this light heavyweight contest could end in the blink of an eye, and he is as ready as one could be. Before the fighters decide to punch one another in the face, they tap their gloves together respectfully.
Krylov hops around in a wide stance looking for big kicks right out of the gate. Krylov backs Guskov up with his kicking arsenal, and he tosses out a jab on one side to set up a high kick on the other. Guskov blocks the latter just in time. Krylov probes out behind his jab, aiming a kick to the body and going upstairs with punches. Krylov’s aggression is shutting down Guskov thus far, as his jab breaks up a punch combo aimed at him. Krylov cracks Guskov with an overhand right, and he does not fall into the trap of trying to go swing-for-swing with the heavy hitter. Guskov starts to open up with big punches, and Krylov gets on his bike but cannot avoid a hard body shot. Guskov catches Krylov at the end of a right hand, and he jacks his foe’s jaw with an uppercut. Not to be outdone, Krylov clips him back, and Guskov dances out of the way of subsequent swings.
The occasional jab from Guskov and power punch marks up Krylov’s face and nose. Krylov does not mind, waving his hands around to befuddle the Uzbekistan native. Krylov aims a naked body kick, and Guskov counters with a crisp right hand right down Main Street. Krylov does not budge, continue to march down the brawler and back him to the wall, where he briefly stumbles.
Krylov fakes a kick, and Guskov opens up with a huge right hand over the top that sends Krylov crashing to the floor. Krylov turns over in an effort to get out of the precarious position, but the emphatic fists keep raining down on either side of his head as Goddard watches closely. Guskov keeps on pounding on his opponent as Krylov considers a Hail Mary leglock, and he manages to put Krylov all the way out as Goddard leaps in to stop the match.
The victor hops on top of the cage to join teammate Valter Walker, where he mimes swimming while Walker is behind him paddling. It must mean something to them.
The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Nikita Krylov R1 4:18 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.
Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.
This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.
The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.
Zane picks Krylov, noting that Guskov is vulnerable to wrestling and Krylov has the skills to exploit that. He sees the potential for disaster if Krylov hesitates, but believes the path to victory is clear via takedowns and ground control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dominick Reyes | 1 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 22 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dominick Reyes | 8 of 17 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-180), Reyes (+150)
Round 1
The main card. It’s what everyone in the building came to watch. It starts off with what should be an absolute banger that could end just as quickly on the feet as it might on the ground. Sporting a 93% finish rate, Krylov (30-9, 11-7 UFC) would prefer to keep things out of the hands of the judges. Reyes (14-4, 8-4 UFC) may not match that high number, but 11 finishes in 14 victories for “The Devastator” is nothing to sneeze at. Referee Marc Goddard will have his hands full for as long as this light heavyweight clash lasts, but he is able to take a brief sigh of relief as the two touch gloves before waging battle. Krylov leads the dance with a leaping body kick, and Reyes moves quickly to the side to evade it. Reyes circles into a head kick, blocking it but taking a few punches on the chin on the way out. Krylov snaps out a left and is counter with a jab that shakes up the Russian by way of Ukraine. Krylov shakes it off and plows forward, swinging a big left hook that misses the mark and brushing past a front kick. Reyes hammers his foe’s front leg with a kick, and he is met with a body shot. Chants in support of Reyes are practically deafening, and he manages to dodge a swinging head kick by a matter of inches. Reyes resets and lashes out with a head kick that bangs into the guard, and they crash towards one another swinging hammers. The former title challenger stands firm and chambers a left hand, unloading it square on the jaw while fading back. Reminiscent of Stipe Miocic decking Fabricio Werdum, Reyes clobbers “The Miner” with a single punch that completely shuts his lights out. Krylov topples to the floor on his side, out cold, and Reyes drums him out with a couple ferocious hammerfists as Goddard races in to get between them. The crowd goes wild, and Reyes walks over to President Donald Trump—who entered the building shortly before this fight—and does his trademark dance. He then mimes hitting a golf shot, and the President grins back at him. Overcome with emotion, Reyes declares that he is not just back, but better than ever. Just like that, the 35-year-old has rattled off three straight knockouts, and he is once more in contention for the championship. A four-fight skid is now firmly in the rear-view mirror, and he calls for one more win before fighting for a belt. What a finish, one that quickly enters the list of “Knockout of the Year” due to the devastating blow from “The Devastator.” When they leave the cage, team Reyes goes to take a photograph with Trump, and he shakes hands with Trump advisor Elon Musk as well.
The Official Result
Dominick Reyes def. Nikita Krylov R1 2:24 via KO (Punch)
Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.
Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.
Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.
Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 24 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 2:39 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 24 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 2:39 |
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Spann | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Spann | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)
Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.
Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.
Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.
Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.
I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.
Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.
Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 42 of 81 | 51% | 108 of 157 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 57 of 121 | 47% | 171 of 251 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 46 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 31 of 64 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 42 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 54 of 78 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 86 of 109 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 42 of 81 | 51% | 35 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 34 of 68 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 57 of 121 | 47% | 42 of 100 | 12 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 93 | 12 of 17 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 39 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 26 of 58 | 44% | 17 of 46 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 45 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Volkan Oezdemir | 20 of 36 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-165), Oezdemir (+140)
Round 1
An intriguing light heavyweight contest that virtually promises action and violence is coming over the horizon, as Oezdemir (18-6, 6-5 UFC) aims to keep his UFC record above .500 against proven finisher Krylov (28-9, 9-7 UFC) who has only gone the distance once in his 28 victories. The heavy-hitting pairing will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, and the fighters touch gloves before swinging them for the bleachers. Krylov pushes out a front kick as Oezdemir comes at him, but this does not slow Oezdemir from looking for a brawl. Oezdemir lines up several heavy punches, and Krylov is rocked early and circling on the outside. Oezdemir gives chase, and he drills Krylov again and again with destructive punches. Krylov shoots in for a takedown, badly hurt, and the Swiss fighter breaks off and confidently marches forward. Krylov again attempts a front kick, and he still does not have his legs beneath him. Oezdemir closes the distance and connects with a string of uppercuts, and Krylov again shoots in and drags Oezdemir to the floor for a second. “No Time” has no time for the ground game, as he springs back up with the wall at his side. Krylov attempts a mat return, and he clears his head as he leans on Oezdemir while landing knees to the thigh. Oezdemir bursts out of the clinch, and he allows Krylov to swing at him with his own barrage before sitting down on a calf kick. Oezdemir calms himself down and methodically approaches instead of rushing it, and Krylov gets loose. Oezdemir sprints in, and Krylov intercepts him with a crushing knee that rocks Oezdemir. “The Miner” digs deep and nails Oezdemir with a salvo of unanswered strikes, and he goes for a takedown only to fall to the ground. As Krylov keeps moving, he gets one hook in and then the other, and he isolates the neck for a rear-naked choke. The grip is around the chin and not under it, so Oezdemir grits it out and sits up. Oezdemir stands up, catches a high knee, and slings Krylov down to the ground. Krylov tosses out upkicks, keeping Oezdemir honest, until Oezdemir lowers himself into the guard. Oezdemir drops down a few hammerfists as he moves to side control, but he abandons it and stands back up. The horn sounds to conclude this thriller of a round, and judges have their hands full here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oezdemir
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Round 2
The light heavyweights meet in the middle to start off the second stanza, and Krylov strikes first with sweeping leg kick. Krylov crashes forward with a stream of punches, knocking Oezdemir back but not hurting him. Oezdemir keeps his right arm high to block the expected high kick, and it glances off the guard. Oezdemir kicks low a few times, and he pushes out a few jabs as Krylov appears the fresher man now. Krylov just misses a head kick, and he darts down to grab a double and plant Oezdemir on the canvas. Krylov moves to the guard, and he does work from on top as Oezdemir responds with elbows from off his back. Oezdemir works his way to his knees and surrenders his back, and Krylov takes this but cannot claim the dominant position. Oezdemir turns his back to the fencing, and Krylov trips him out to his knees. Krylov rips Oezdemir down to the floor again, but Oezdemir bursts upright and just dodges a head kick. Oezdemir connects with a clean right hand, and Krylov meets him with a knee up the middle. The knees turn to a takedown entry from “The Miner,” who digs down low to pull Oezdemir’s legs out and bury him on the floor. Krylov gets his wind back from the guard position, with light ground-and-pound but far more important control time given the energy expenditure thus far. Goddard tells Krylov to keep working as they stall out, and Oezdemir closes the guard and ties Krylov up to force referee intervention. Krylov continues his body-body-head strikes from above that are more stay-busy strikes, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Round 3
The seemingly spent 205ers greet with a touch of gloves to begin the last round, and both men score punches immediately. Krylov lands the cleaner of the strikes, backing Oezdemir up and getting off an uppercut and a knee. Krylov uses his forward momentum to go after a takedown, and his double sets the Swiss man on the mat again. Oezdemir appears dejected from getting grounded once more, and the ground control resumes from “The Miner.” Little in the way of offense comes from a fatigued Krylov, with the occasional punch to the body or head to remain active. Goddard stands them up at practically the midpoint of the round, and Oezdemir is energized and marches forward. Krylov keeps him at bay with a front kick, and he strings a one-two together that Oezdemir practically ignores. Oezdemir swings his fists like he is underwater, with Krylov appearing physically far fresher, and he is more active as he puts a one-two on the chin and follows it with a head kick. Krylov connects with a few more heavy blows, including a stunning right hand, and he secures a takedown to deflate Oezdemir completely. When Oezdemir defends with a triangle choke from his back, Krylov makes him pay by raining down punches that bounce his head off the floor. Krylov slowly, methodically works Oezdemir over, and he passes to the side right when the final bell perhaps surprisingly sounds. Should he get his hand raised, it will be just the second decision victory of Krylov's lengthy career.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov (30-27 Krylov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Krylov (29-28 Krylov)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Krylov (30-27 Krylov)
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Volkan Oezdemir via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.
Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.
Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.
Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 2 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 2 | 26 of 44 | 59% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 26 of 44 | 59% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 26 of 44 | 59% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 |
| Alexander Gustafsson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-200), Gustafsson (+170)
Round 1
Gustafsson returns to 205 pounds after a brief stop at heavyweight in 2020 against Krylov, who has lost three of his last four. Marc Goddard will officiate the bout. Krylov drops Gustafsson with an overhand right during an early exchange. Gustafsson eats a series of knees as he returns to his feet, and the former title challenger is already in a world of trouble. Gustafsson clinches with Krylov to get a brief respite from the onslaught. Krylov breaks free and keeps his foot on the gas pedal.
Gustafsson catches a body kick only to get dropped by a short left hand in close quarters with Krylov still on one leg. Krylov stands over his fallen opponent and alternates left and right hands until Goddard steps in on Gustafsson’s behalf.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Alexander Gustafsson via TKO (Punches) R1 1:07
Angelo picks Nikita Krylov but is hesitant due to Gustafsson's two-year layoff and three-fight losing streak. He notes Krylov is well-rounded and has a good chin, but questions his fight IQ after the Paul Craig loss. He says the odds favoring Krylov are surprising and calls it a no-bet situation, expecting Gustafsson to look older and slower.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by finish (ground and pound or submission in round 2). He is hesitant due to question marks about Gustafsson's layoff and motivation. He notes Gustafsson hasn't won in five years and hasn't fought in two years. Krylov is more active and dangerous, but if Gustafsson shows up motivated, it's a different fight.
Cody leans towards Alexander Gustafsson, citing that his losses are to top competition and he may have recaptured motivation after a two-year layoff. He notes Krylov has durability issues and tends to fade in later rounds. Cody thinks Gustafsson can use his mobility and grappling to neutralize Krylov and win a decision. He acknowledges there are many red flags but sees value in the underdog.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Nikita Krylov, arguing that Gustafsson is past his prime and has already retired once, saying he didn't have what it takes anymore. He notes that Krylov is only 30 and entering his prime, with a well-rounded game and a Kyokushin karate background. Levi acknowledges Krylov's occasional bonehead mistakes but believes he will outwork Gustafsson. He also mentions that he likes fading washed-up fighters and that Krylov is a motivated underdog in this spot.
Gustafsson looks in phenomenal shape and has a big skill advantage over Krylov. His takedown defense is 83%. Krylov's wins are over lesser competition. If Gustafsson is even 70% of his peak, he wins handily. However, motivation is a question mark, so I'm passing on betting but predicting Gustafsson.
Paul picks Alexander Gustafsson at plus money, calling minus 200 on Krylov ridiculous. He notes Gustafsson has looked horrible recently but his losses are to elite fighters. Paul admits he doesn't have the courage to bet Gustafsson confidently and will wait for weigh-ins. He says he won't bet money on it.
The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov to win by submission in the first or second round. He questions Gustafsson's reasons for returning and notes Krylov is underrated. Krylov put a pace on Ankalaev and has great stand-up. Gustafsson has poor ground game and has been submitted when taken down. Krylov will take him down and secure a submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Nikita Krylov | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 |
| Nikita Krylov | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 19 of 25 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 |
| Nikita Krylov | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Violence is on the menu for this light heavyweight clash, as the two men scheduled to meet inside of the Octagon now combined for 41 finishes across their 42 victories. It is strange that this matchup between top-15 fighters is so low on the prelims here, but they do not seem to mind. Of the two, Krylov (27-8, 8-6 UFC) has won once by decision, while Craig (15-4-1, 7-4-1 UFC) has never before needed the judges to award him a win. Standing by is referee Lukasz Bosacki, ready to intervene at a moment’s notice. The staredown is intense, and they do not elect to touch gloves. Krylov leads off with a front kick that cracks Craig on the jaw, and Craig shakes it off and drags the fight down to the mat, pulling guard just to get it there. Krylov welcomes this, and he gets off several punches from on top until “Bearjew” locks him down with a shoulder lock of sorts. Krylov attempts to set up an arm-triangle choke in half guard from the other side, and Craig is not concerned even as Krylov exerts heavy shoulder pressure. “The Miner” sits comfortably in half guard, pounding on Craig with punches and short elbows to make Craig’s life miserable. Bosacki asks them to work, and Krylov switches over to use his forearm to press on Craig’s neck. There is no forearm choke, and instead Krylov bails on it to just squeeze his full body weight on Craig’s head. Krylov keeps his right arm beneath Craig’s neck holding on tight, and he lets go to stand up and smash Craig in the face. Craig’s lights may have gone out for a second, but he comes back online due to heavy punches as Bosacki does not seem to be concerned. Craig tries to throw his legs up for some kind of submission off his back, and Krylov shoves them aside and slugs “Bearjew” in the face a few more times to decent effect. Krylov goes back to the guard, and then stands again to bust Craig in the chops with standing-to-ground punches.
Craig cannot get Krylov off of him, but it appears he does not want to, instead timing Krylov dropping down at the perfect moment to slap his legs up and around Krylov’s shoulders. In span of five seconds, Krylov goes from punching Craig in the face to having a triangle choke locked up around his neck. Craig turns him over in hopes of taking mount, but Krylov pulls him back down to the mat even though he is in big trouble. The leg grip is not going to let go, in a Craig specialty move, and Krylov is about to go out.
Instead of falling asleep, the Ukrainian-born Krylov taps out, and Craig has done it again. From being nearly knocked out to winning by submission, “Bearjew” has snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, and the crowd could not be happier for his triumphant moment.
The Official Result
Paul Craig def. Nikita Krylov R1 3:57 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Paul Craig as an underdog, noting his incredible toughness and submission threat. He thinks Krylov is more well-rounded but less dangerous, and will likely win a decision if he fights perfectly. He expects Craig to withstand a beating and find a finish on the ground. He plans to bet on Paul Craig wins inside the distance (decision no action) at plus money.
Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He likes Krylov's knockout power and believes Paul Craig's chin is suspect. Brady notes that if the fight goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but he thinks Krylov can avoid the grappling and finish early. He also mentions Craig's talk of retirement as a potential factor.
Cody picks Krylov but is hesitant, noting Krylov's tendency to make bad decisions and engage in grappling with submission experts. He thinks Krylov should win if he keeps it standing, but worries he might get caught. He prefers Craig by submission as a prop.
Daniel Levi picks Paul Craig by submission at +450, noting that Nikita Krylov has five career submission losses and a history of making bonehead mistakes on the mat. He believes Craig only needs one opportunity to snatch a submission, as seen against Jamal Hill. Levi acknowledges Krylov may win the minutes and has knockout potential, but at plus money, he's willing to bet on Craig's opportunistic submission game. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Craig in the UK.
Krylov has power striking and good combinations, which should overwhelm Craig on the feet. However, five of Krylov's eight losses are by submission, a huge red flag against a submission specialist like Craig. Craig is dangerous off his back, constantly throwing up submissions. The fight likely ends inside the distance, but Krylov's striking advantage should lead to a knockout. I'm picking Krylov by KO, but the fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite bet.
Paul picks Krylov confidently, arguing that Krylov has fought elite competition and improved his takedown defense. He believes Krylov's striking is far superior and that Craig's wins are overrated. He thinks Krylov will win by KO if he fights smart.
The Guru picks Nikita Krylov, arguing he is underrated and has better performances than Paul Craig. He notes Krylov held his own against Glover Teixeira and outgrappled Magomed Ankalaev in round one. He criticizes Craig's chin and mentions Craig's retirement talk. He predicts a first-round TKO on the feet, as Craig tends to go down when hit clean.
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