UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Sep 15, 2018 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik Next Fight
Age 43
Height 6' 2"
Reach 78"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jan Błachowicz
3.55 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.14 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.98 TD Avg
48.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Nikita Krylov
4.36 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
2.59 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
2.05 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Jan Błachowicz - Fight History
Draw vs Bogdan Guskov
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 1 84 of 149 56% 100 of 173 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 1 80 of 140 57% 98 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 52 48% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 13 84% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 32 of 51 62% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:09
3 Jan Błachowicz 1 48 of 84 57% 50 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Bogdan Guskov 0 27 of 45 60% 27 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 84 of 149 56% 56 of 112 11 of 17 17 of 20 74 of 135 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 80 of 140 57% 69 of 127 2 of 3 9 of 10 52 of 96 0 of 0 28 of 44
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 52 48% 13 of 35 3 of 6 9 of 11 25 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 21 of 44 47% 10 of 32 2 of 3 9 of 9 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 13 84% 7 of 9 1 of 1 3 of 3 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 32 of 51 62% 32 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 28 of 44
3 Jan Błachowicz 48 of 84 57% 36 of 68 7 of 10 5 of 6 38 of 70 2 of 3 8 of 11
Bogdan Guskov 27 of 45 60% 27 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1 27 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.

advises against betting
"I'm going to pick Yan. But to bet on him at minus 145, at 42 years old... would be a poor financial decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.

Błachowicz by decision
"I'm still going with the old man. One last ride. I'm going to take Yonhovich to win this fight. I'll say he wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.

Jan by submission +765
"I'm going to lean on the old warhorse um minus 130 Yonhovich for that chin to hold up and him just to kind of you know show goosebump that even though he's old there's still levels to this."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.

Odds: Błachowicz opened -150, now -130; Guskov opened +130, now +110.
"I think you have to pick old Polish power to do it again. I think you do. I don't want to see it, but I want it to happen."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.

"Give me Bogdan and Guskov to come out here as an underdog, get this upset and knock out the man with the legendary Polish power."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.

"I have to pick Yan in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.

submission
"I think he should be able to mix this game up well enough eventually land some takedowns and I think he might even be able to pull off a submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.

"Jan is something special, man. He just knows how to keep in."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.

"I'm going to go with Yamblohovic getting this one done over Bognam. Decision whim clearcut 3027 or 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"We're taking Jan. In part also just because he still hasn't been getting finished at all."
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 59 of 131 45% 59 of 131 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 75 of 157 47% 75 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 16 of 33 48% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 29 of 60 48% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 67 37% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 0 31 of 65 47% 31 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 59 of 131 45% 17 of 67 10 of 26 32 of 38 59 of 131 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 75 of 157 47% 19 of 87 6 of 15 50 of 55 74 of 156 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 18 of 31 58% 3 of 11 1 of 4 14 of 16 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 15 of 32 46% 2 of 16 1 of 4 12 of 12 15 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 16 of 33 48% 6 of 16 2 of 8 8 of 9 16 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 29 of 60 48% 6 of 30 3 of 7 20 of 23 28 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 67 37% 8 of 40 7 of 14 10 of 13 25 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 31 of 65 47% 11 of 41 2 of 4 18 of 20 31 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.

"ulberg is going to be the pick and I am pretty confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.

Ulberg by decision
"give me olberg orberg by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.

Jan opened at -113, currently +244; Ulberg opened at -100, currently -275. Connor notes the odds and seems to find value in Jan as an underdog.
"I'll keep one for the old man and i'll go with below which here ... I haven't seen him be shot yet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.

"I have to lean with the striking advantage of Bberg. Not to mention Blhovic coming back from an injury, long layoff and being 42 now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.

underdog value (nearly 3-to-1)
"I'm going to go yanovich getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.

Jan opened at -113, currently +244; Ulberg opened at -100, currently -275. Zane notes the line movement reflects trepidation about Jan.
"I gotta stick with my kind which is uh ... Tall and possibly handsome young men ... Carlos is better than that."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 29, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 52 of 81 64% 82 of 117 3 of 8 37% 2 0 7:32
Jan Błachowicz 0 70 of 92 76% 112 of 138 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 6 of 6 100% 17 of 17 1 of 3 33% 2 0 4:50
Jan Błachowicz 0 2 of 3 66% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Alex Pereira 0 20 of 29 68% 32 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
Jan Błachowicz 0 33 of 47 70% 54 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Alex Pereira 0 26 of 46 56% 33 of 57 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Jan Błachowicz 0 35 of 42 83% 46 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 52 of 81 64% 41 of 66 4 of 8 7 of 7 41 of 67 3 of 5 8 of 9
Jan Błachowicz 70 of 92 76% 26 of 46 23 of 24 21 of 22 62 of 83 7 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 6 of 6 100% 6 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5
Jan Błachowicz 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 20 of 29 68% 15 of 21 2 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 2
Jan Błachowicz 33 of 47 70% 13 of 25 10 of 11 10 of 11 28 of 41 4 of 5 1 of 1
3 Alex Pereira 26 of 46 56% 20 of 39 2 of 3 4 of 4 24 of 42 1 of 2 1 of 2
Jan Błachowicz 35 of 42 83% 12 of 19 13 of 13 10 of 10 33 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)

Round 1
The year is 2023, and for the second time in the last several months, there is no light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Once the glamour division, a litany of injuries and vacated belts left the throne unclaimed. This 205-pound clash will not be for the vacant strap, as some had expected, and instead will take place across three rounds. The victor will be sitting pretty for that next available opening, and former kingpin Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) and ex-middleweight champ Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC) are positively salivating at the opportunity that awaits the triumphant man tonight. Referee Marc Goddard is on high alert for the next 15 minutes or less, although it has no bad blood so he can breathe a slight sigh of relief. The hulking light heavyweights bump fists, and they swat at one another with quick punches. Blachowicz ducks down in pursuit of a single, and he lifts Pereira’s leg up but cannot hold him down. Pereira keeps his back to the wall and wraps an arm around the neck, and he cinches his other arm around and fastens the grip to make it excruciatingly tight early. The Polish fighter is not remotely concerned, and he re-adjusts himself to drop down low enough to thwart the choke. Blachowicz leans heavily on his man while he doggedly pursues a single, and he uses heel strikes to the back of Blachowicz’ thigh and calf. Blachowicz imposes his weight on his man, and he manages to drag Pereira to the mat. Blachowicz snakes his legs around the waist to get hold of the body triangle, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke. The grip is on the chin and not beneath it, so Blachowicz changes his hands to try to slide it in. Pereira hand-fights to stop the choke, but Blachowicz is still on his back with his body lock tight. Blachowicz tries to keep himself leaned against the fence to stop Pereira from sliding him out the back door, and he lands one single strike before looking to put his right arm around the head. The Brazilian keeps himself out of submission danger, and he lowers himself down to puts himself in a worse position than before. Blachowicz gets the choke again, and he nearly flattens Pereira out. Pereira once more protects his neck, so Blachowicz decides to smack him upside the head with any free hand. Blachowicz keeps the lock tight around the waist, even as he cannot get the choke, and he elects to ride out the round in this dominant position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 2
The 205ers do not decide to touch gloves to engage this round, and Blachowicz is in the center of the cage immediately and he backs off to dodge a jab and check a leg kick. Blachowicz jabs the body in response, and Pereira sits down on a low kick. Blachowicz responds in kind, and Pereira gets off a solid body shot. Blachowicz intercepts the kickboxer with a short left hook, and Blachowicz flicks out several jabs. Blachowicz turns his shin to prevent a low kick from getting through, and Pereira marks the body with another straight punch. Blachowicz responds with his own body shot, and they both jab one another. Pereira sweeps the leg with a hard calf kick, and Blachowicz has to take a step to shake it out. Pereira lands another, and Blachowicz steps in with a hard left hook. Blachowicz follows it with a right hand, and Pereira is able to shake it out but overswings and opens himself up. This allows the Polish fighter to secure a double, where he plants Pereira on his back. Blachowicz stays heavy on top and opens up with a few strikes, and “Poatan” responds with a sharp elbow that gets through. Pereira tries to scoot himself to the fence in order to fight his way back to his feet, and he succeeds in getting to a knee and then standing. Pereira sneaks in short knees as Blachowicz continues to press on him, and Blachowicz gives him a stern knee to the solar plexus as he holds on. Pereira suddenly spins out quickly, and he appears the fresher fighter as he tosses out a head kick that Blachowicz barely blocks. Pereira comes at him with a body shot, and Blachowicz responds with a left over the top. Pereira stings Blachowicz with a left hook, and Blachowicz charges with a takedown that fails. Blachowicz backs off when he gets popped with a right, and the two tie up again with 40 seconds remaining. They both get in knees, and Pereira breaks off with two uppercuts and a body shot. Pereira corners his man and starts teeing off on him with short but dangerous shots, and Blachowicz leans back against the fence and is taking damage. Blachowicz responds with one left hook, and he takes a very heavy breath. Pereira lands two right hands, and Blachowicz drops down to shoot in but time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira

Round 3
The body language could scarcely look more different between the two, as Blachowicz is clearly spent while Pereira is psyched up. Both fighters come together to engage in the last round, and Blachowicz lumbers forward kicking low. Blachowicz is just able to avoid a massive uppercut, and the two trade jabs. Pereira batters his foe’s lead calf, which is nastily welted. Blachowicz musters his energy with a pair of punches and a body kick, and Pereira replies with a stern calf kick to the same spot. Pereira jabs the body, and he peppers the lead wheel. Blachowicz blitzes him with a few hooks, and Pereira shrugs at him. Pereira walks down his foe instead of attacking recklessly, and he takes a solid low kick as he come forward. Pereira gives him a jab to think about, and he parries a few punches that come his way. Blachowicz tries to check a kick, and he absorbs a flush right hand to the midsection. Blachowicz huffs and puffs and still reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Pereira beats him to the punch with a few punches right back at him. Blachowicz scores a clean left hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Pereira stands him up but gets shoved back to the wall, although he is able to stave Blachowicz off. Blachowicz scores a left on the break, and he dings Pereira with another left hand. Blachowicz snaps the head back with a jab, and he charges forward but misses with two strikes. Blachowicz sits down on a leg kick, and the shins crack together. Both men land flush with blows, and Pereira hits the harder of the two and makes Blachowicz nod at him. Blachowicz walks through a left hook and eats a jab to the body, and he races forward swinging hands. Pereira stuffs a takedown, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a few punches. With 45 seconds left in the fight, Blachowicz is able to grab Pereira’s leg and sling him to the mat. When he lands in full guard, Blachowicz sits on top and looks for any energy he has to land strikes. Stacking Pereira up with seconds to spare, Blachowicz drops down hammerfists and concludes the fight on top. This one goes the distance, and it could be an extremely close one depending on how the final round was scored.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 23, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with hesitation, acknowledging that Jan's takedowns are a threat. He believes Pereira is the more technical striker with possibly more power, and that he will be fine defending takedowns or getting back up. However, he is worried about Pereira's chin after being knocked out three months ago. He is not betting on this fight but will look at props like most significant strikes.

will look at props like most significant strikes
"I do think Alex wins this fight but I'm not doing anything with that I I mean honestly this is what's gonna happen I'm here saying Alex is going to win the fight he's the much better more technical Striker …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by second-round submission. He emphasizes Błachowicz's grappling advantage, noting he took down Israel Adesanya and controlled him. He criticizes Pereira's ground game, which looked poor against Adesanya. He hopes Błachowicz fights smart and uses wrestling, but is not 100% sure he will. If he does, it's an easy win.

second round submission
"I'm going to take lahovich to go out there hopefully fight smart get this fight down to the mat early and often and submit Alex Pereira in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Cody picks Błachowicz based on the takedown threat, noting Pereira's mediocre takedown defense and Błachowicz's success against Israel Adesanya by taking him down. He believes if Błachowicz gets top control, Pereira won't get up. He mentions the over 2 takedowns prop for Błachowicz. He hasn't bet it but is confident in the pick.

over 2 takedowns for Błachowicz
"I'm leaning towards yawn who's going to be so outclassed way too slow on the feet"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jul 25, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

James picks Jan but with low confidence, citing volatility from Pereira's weight jump, recent knockout loss, and Jan's age. He thinks Jan is an underrated striker with good leg kicks and can compete on the feet, but he also notes Jan is hittable with the left hook. He believes Jan's path to victory includes takedowns, but he cannot guarantee Jan will wrestle.

"I'm gonna side with Yan because I feel like that I think Yan is a very underrated Striker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Blachowicz's underrated striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be the difference. He can survive Pereira's power and find his way into the pocket to grind him out. Pereira hasn't faced someone of Blachowicz's size and grappling. I'm leaning Blachowicz by submission late, but not a lot of conviction.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to lean with blahovich again not a lot of conviction here but I think his overall Game and his comfortability at fighting at 205 pounds will eventually be the Difference Maker in the spot give me below hovich …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, citing Błachowicz's age (40) and lack of recent wrestling success—only one takedown in his last nine fights (against Adesanya). He argues Błachowicz is not a high-level wrestler and fights at a slow pace, which plays into Pereira's striking. He notes Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and improved takedown defense. He sees value at plus money.

"I gotta go the other side again the plus money is just a little too tempting"
Draw (split) (48–47, 46–48, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 55 of 117 47% 79 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 78 of 184 42% 191 of 312 2 of 10 20% 0 0 11:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 37 35% 23 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 17 of 34 50% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 48 37% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:26
4 Jan Błachowicz 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 19 52% 55 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:32
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 0 of 2 0% 13 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 37 48% 54 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 55 of 117 47% 19 of 71 11 of 17 25 of 29 50 of 109 5 of 7 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 78 of 184 42% 49 of 139 19 of 33 10 of 12 50 of 134 6 of 8 22 of 42
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 14 of 35 40% 3 of 20 4 of 8 7 of 7 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 43 44% 10 of 28 7 of 12 2 of 3 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 23 of 43 53% 10 of 27 3 of 4 10 of 12 18 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 37 35% 7 of 24 2 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 17 of 34 50% 5 of 19 4 of 5 8 of 10 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 48 37% 10 of 37 6 of 9 2 of 2 16 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 1
4 Jan Błachowicz 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 19 52% 4 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 8 4 of 5 5 of 6
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 37 48% 18 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 35
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.

"ankalayev is absolutely the pick he is incredible value at minus 255."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.

Ankalaev wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think ankle live takes behovich down and once he does that's probably going to be the round there... I like ankle I had to get it done and to get it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I got Uncle life winning I don't think the money Line's terrible but if I was to try to chase a prop I got a feeling he's …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.

Odds: Błachowicz opened +170, now +224; Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"So I'm taking the flyer on block of it here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.

Bet 2 units on Ankalaev moneyline at -250. Expects decision win, possibly 4-1 rounds.
"I bet on magomed and Khalif... I played magomed minus 250 I played him to win two units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.

lock of the week play at -255
"I personally bet him as my Lachlan I play earlier this week at minus 255. I thought that was a great line because I think he's just that much better than blowovich"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I think he wins minus 255 as a favorite I don't hate it I don't love it I'll be picking him maybe I'll end up with him …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.

"I'm gonna be going with yamla no magamed and Goliath winning this one options win fights"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.

Odds: Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"I'll take uncle live just to be patient enough and powerful enough and consistent enough to take advantage of his opportunities when he gets some out of the fight."
TKO (knee injury) R3 1:11 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 31 of 71 43% 53 of 94 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:01
Aleksandar Rakić 0 27 of 85 31% 61 of 125 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 12 of 52 23% 12 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 1 of 3 33% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 10 of 19 52% 44 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:33
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Aleksandar Rakić 0 5 of 14 35% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 31 of 71 43% 8 of 31 9 of 21 14 of 19 31 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 27 of 85 31% 14 of 60 2 of 9 11 of 16 17 of 70 0 of 0 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 53 47% 7 of 24 6 of 14 12 of 15 25 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 12 of 52 23% 1 of 32 1 of 8 10 of 12 12 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 10 of 19 52% 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 15
3 Jan Błachowicz 5 of 15 33% 1 of 6 2 of 6 2 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 5 of 14 35% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.

"I think I would have to go wreckage but uh I'd like to put main events on my top ticket right and his wreckage a top ticket guy I just explained that I think that the value is not really …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.

"there could be a case to be made that rakic's wrestling hasn't been tested and yawn historically fantastic chin good cardio volume is okay volume is better than what we've seen from rackets i mean if he drags this kid …"
LOSS vs Glover Teixeira
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:02 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Glover Teixeira 0 28 of 45 62% 53 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 39 58% 71 of 93 2 of 6 33% 2 0 5:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Glover Teixeira 0 6 of 8 75% 29 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jan Błachowicz 0 10 of 15 66% 51 of 61 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:29
2 Glover Teixeira 0 22 of 37 59% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jan Błachowicz 0 13 of 24 54% 20 of 32 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Glover Teixeira 28 of 45 62% 20 of 37 6 of 6 2 of 2 26 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jan Błachowicz 23 of 39 58% 17 of 33 6 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 12 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Glover Teixeira 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jan Błachowicz 10 of 15 66% 9 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 11
2 Glover Teixeira 22 of 37 59% 16 of 31 6 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jan Błachowicz 13 of 24 54% 8 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by knockout. He believes Jan is the better striker and will hurt Glover, who is chinny at 42. Glover's path is takedowns, but Jan has excellent takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights). He expects Jan to be calculated and not rush in, eventually knocking Glover out. He references Jan's performance against Adesanya.

Błachowicz by knockout
"I'm going to go blhovet here um i could see to share having success here or there but i think beljovich knocks them out at some point."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Cody agrees Jan wins but disagrees on finish, thinking Jan is more of a decision fighter. He notes Jan's solid takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and cardio. He picks Jan but sees the fight going over 2.5 rounds, possibly a decision. He mentions Jan by decision is +300 but he's not confident in a finish.

Over 2.5 rounds (-115), Jan by decision +300
"i got yawn but i could also see where yon just wins four of the five rounds and wins the unanimous decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Daniel picks Jan Błachowicz to defend his title, citing Jan's improved accuracy, timing, and ability to mix strikes and takedowns. He notes Jan's career turnaround and his wins over top competition like Dominick Reyes and Israel Adesanya. Daniel acknowledges Glover's dangerous ground game and toughness but believes Jan's composure and polish power will lead to a knockout. He emphasizes that Jan is a black belt and won't panic if Glover gets top position.

predicts knockout
"i got yamblochovic to defend his title for the second time and get a knockout along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Błachowicz has Polish power and solid cardio, and he can stuff takedowns. Teixeira is slow and has been hurt in recent fights, relying on takedowns to bail him out. Błachowicz will find a knockout on the feet, likely in the first round.

"I still lean blo blhovich here i'm gonna go ablohovich i think he puts that polish power on him and then he gets to share out of there."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Paul picks Jan Błachowicz by knockout, citing Jan's 'Polish power' and Glover's compromised chin. He notes Glover has been stunned in recent fights and thinks over five rounds Jan will crack that chin. He mentions the bet is a small play at +100 by KO, not a massive one.

Jan by KO +100 (DraftKings), small play
"yawn by knockout is my pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The MMA Guru picks Jan Błachowicz to win by KO in the first round. He notes that Glover Teixeira is 41, takes damage in every fight, and has been dropped multiple times. He praises Błachowicz's takedown defense, finishing instinct, and reach advantage. He contrasts Błachowicz's composed finishing (separating and dropping hammer fists) with other opponents who rushed in and gave up position. He predicts Błachowicz will rock Glover, separate, and finish with hammer fists.

first round ko
"i'm going to be going with yamblahovic here over glover to sharer i reckon he gets this one done by ko"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–45, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 107 of 193 55% 184 of 276 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:06
Israel Adesanya 0 78 of 161 48% 99 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 13 of 30 43% 13 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 49 46% 23 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 21 of 42 50% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 24 of 42 57% 28 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Israel Adesanya 0 21 of 40 52% 34 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
4 Jan Błachowicz 0 14 of 24 58% 51 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:29
Israel Adesanya 0 11 of 20 55% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 28 of 47 59% 64 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Israel Adesanya 0 12 of 29 41% 16 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 107 of 193 55% 67 of 146 29 of 33 11 of 14 85 of 169 6 of 6 16 of 18
Israel Adesanya 78 of 161 48% 32 of 102 17 of 23 29 of 36 77 of 158 0 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 18 of 31 58% 3 of 13 7 of 7 8 of 11 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 13 of 30 43% 2 of 14 3 of 4 8 of 12 13 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 23 of 49 46% 9 of 33 12 of 14 2 of 2 22 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 21 of 42 50% 5 of 23 7 of 8 9 of 11 21 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 24 of 42 57% 18 of 34 6 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 21 of 40 52% 12 of 30 4 of 4 5 of 6 21 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Jan Błachowicz 14 of 24 58% 12 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 18 1 of 1 5 of 5
Israel Adesanya 11 of 20 55% 8 of 15 1 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2
5 Jan Błachowicz 28 of 47 59% 25 of 44 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 34 0 of 0 11 of 13
Israel Adesanya 12 of 29 41% 5 of 20 2 of 4 5 of 5 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Adesanya based on speed, footwork, and counter-striking ability. He notes that Adesanya walks around light (193 lbs) to stay fast and quick, and will use his range to frustrate Błachowicz. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and ground game but believes Adesanya's movement and counters will be decisive.

"i think other side is going to win uh if you know he's uh smaller guys in weight but he's a taller he get more range"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya, citing his massive speed and volume advantages. He doubts Błachowicz can close the distance or get takedowns, noting Błachowicz hasn't attempted takedowns in recent fights. He predicts a kickboxing fight and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He would bet Adesanya if the line drops to -190.

over 2.5 rounds
"i'm going with arasana here do i love him as a parley piece not really honestly but i do think he wins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Daniel picks Israel Adesanya to win and become a two-division champion, citing his speed, technique, and diverse striking. He acknowledges Jan Błachowicz's power and puncher's chance but believes Adesanya's skill set will be too much.

"i'm gonna say izzy makes history uh saturday night and you know joins that very exclusive list of uh champ champs"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Jacob picks Adesanya because he thinks Adesanya has the best walk-in dance he's ever seen, referencing the fight against Robert Whittaker. This is a lighthearted reason, but he clearly states his pick.

"i pick israel israel because i think he had the best walk-in dance i've ever seen when he fought robert whittaker"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya's striking wizardry and calf kicks should be key, but Błachowicz has power and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. The host expects a tough fight and predicts a late stoppage (4th or 5th round) for Adesanya, but advises caution due to Błachowicz's power.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds
"i'll go with the artisana side and i'm going to take him to win by fourth or fifth round stoppage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the third or fourth round. He believes Adesanya's striking precision and speed will be too much for Błachowicz, who is flat-footed and loads up his kicks. He predicts Adesanya will chop at the legs early, frustrate Błachowicz, and catch him rushing in with a counter hook, similar to how Thiago Santos finished him.

"i'm going with israel to sanya getting the job done third or fourth round tko"
TKO (punches) R2 4:36 · UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · Sep 27, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 41 of 89 46% 41 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 15 of 36 41% 15 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 26 of 53 49% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 21 of 51 41% 9 of 35 2 of 5 10 of 11 21 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 41 of 89 46% 25 of 70 6 of 9 10 of 10 37 of 83 1 of 2 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 10 of 20 50% 3 of 12 1 of 1 6 of 7 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 15 of 36 41% 2 of 22 5 of 6 8 of 8 15 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 11 of 31 35% 6 of 23 1 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 26 of 53 49% 23 of 48 1 of 3 2 of 2 22 of 47 1 of 2 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Reyes, citing his higher output and better striking. He downplays Błachowicz's power, noting he has only three knockouts since 2011 and those were against chinny opponents. He believes Reyes' takedown defense and durability will carry him to a third-round knockout.

Reyes by third-round knockout
"give me dominic reyes i'm going to say uh third round knockout for dominic reyes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi slightly edges Dominick Reyes because he gave Jon Jones a tough fight, but he is not confident at the current price. He notes Jan Błachowicz is underrated and has shown improvements, and that Reyes has a cringey attitude and may be underestimating Błachowicz. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and suggests betting Błachowicz at plus money.

dog or pass situation; plus 230 on yom blakovich in a title fight
"i'm gonna slightly edge reyes here just because he gave jones that tough fight but like dude this might be a situation where you pick reyes and bet yamlakova just because of the betting odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

The host picks Jan Błachowicz as an underdog, citing his experience, durability, and ability to make the fight dirty. He believes Reyes may fade in later rounds as he did against Jones, and that Błachowicz can grind out a decision. He notes that the line is too wide and that Błachowicz has a better chance than the odds suggest.

over 2.5 rounds, Błachowicz by decision
"I like yamahovich in this spot but for some reason i just can't pull the trigger... i'm actually going to go with yamblahovic to win this fight by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes, citing his win over Jon Jones (though a loss on record) and his style of using range and oblique kicks. He thinks Reyes will catch Błachowicz moving backwards in the first or second round with a big shot, similar to how Santos did. He notes Błachowicz's power is overrated as he KO'd Luke Rockhold and Corey Anderson, who are easy to KO.

Win by KO in round 1 or 2
"i think he'll catch jan blackovich in the first or second round with a big shot and finished a job much like santos did"
Nikita Krylov - Fight History
SCHED vs Robert Whittaker
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
KO R3 4:57 · UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 1 72 of 137 52% 94 of 164 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:37
Modestas Bukauskas 0 40 of 108 37% 43 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 10 of 28 35% 25 of 48 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:58
Modestas Bukauskas 0 11 of 21 52% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nikita Krylov 0 23 of 40 57% 30 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Modestas Bukauskas 0 11 of 32 34% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
3 Nikita Krylov 1 39 of 69 56% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Modestas Bukauskas 0 18 of 55 32% 18 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 72 of 137 52% 25 of 76 22 of 34 25 of 27 64 of 128 5 of 6 3 of 3
Modestas Bukauskas 40 of 108 37% 35 of 101 2 of 4 3 of 3 40 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 10 of 28 35% 3 of 17 1 of 5 6 of 6 10 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nikita Krylov 23 of 40 57% 8 of 20 8 of 13 7 of 7 19 of 36 4 of 4 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 11 of 32 34% 8 of 28 2 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nikita Krylov 39 of 69 56% 14 of 39 13 of 16 12 of 14 35 of 65 1 of 1 3 of 3
Modestas Bukauskas 18 of 55 32% 16 of 52 0 of 1 2 of 2 18 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Nikita Krylov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)

Round 1
A 205-pound smash-‘em-up derby keeps the action going, as the two men about to set foot in the cage are eying that new $25K finish bonus on top of the raised $100K for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC) may be gunning for the latter of those two bonus checks, given his 93% stoppage rate with 23 of his 28 finishes coming in Round 1. “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) will need to be on his best behavior when taking on the offensive force of the Ukrainian by way of Russia, and referee Marc Goddard will see to that. They touch gloves.
Krylov bounces back and forth on his heels, and he times a high kick that careens off the guard and a low kick that slaps off the front leg. When Krylov tosses out another naked leg kick, Bukauskas belts him with a pair of punches. Krylov gets away with another calf kick, and his subsequent offering to the midsection comes up short. Bukauskas winds up and hurls punches at his opponent, who backs straight up and is just out of range. Krylov attempts a single-leg entry, and he proceeds to press Bukauskas against the cage wall. Bukauskas looks to use a body lock when the first effort fails, and he works his foe’s knees while grinding on him. Krylov aims to slip his leg around Bukauskas’ to disrupt his balance, and he tackles the Lithuanian to the floor for a moment. Bukauskas bounces back up and gets pushed to the wall, and the crowd is not having it.
Krylov transitions from one takedown attempt to another, but Bukauskas is able to defend them and stay upright. Goddard claps for them to do more, and Krylov grabs hold of a single and lifts the leg up high. Bukauskas springs away and barely evades a head kick on the way out, and when he tries to engage, he gets caught with a right hand on the temple. Krylov peppers with kicks on the outside, and one of his low kicks is met with a blistering right hand that makes him take a quick count of his teeth. Bukauskas swats with a left and then a right hand, and Krylov springs into action with a kick and swinging fists that miss by a wide margin. Another Krylov blitz is met with counters, but he steels himself and shakes up “The Baltic Gladiator” with a right hand. Bukauskas retreats to gather his thoughts, and Krylov lets him off the hook as the two reach the round horn for the first time of any fight tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Krylov

Round 2
The 205ers touch gloves to get started, and it takes a couple seconds before Krylov unveils his first offensive tactic of a body kick. Bukauskas replies with a one-two, and they both toss out kicks at the same time to different targets. Bukauskas clips Krylov with a left hand on the way out, and fists quickly fly in an exchange at the center of the cage. Krylov works the body with a kick, and this draws out some hard swings from Bukauskas that drive him back. The Ukrainian ducks a huge haymaker and engages in a clinch with hopes of scoring a takedown, but Bukauskas is able to stifle them and spin him around against the wire. They jockey for position and trade knees up the middle, with neither man gaining the upper hand as they stay at it.
Krylov gets off a solid knee to the breadbasket and shoots, but the takedown hits a wall. Goddard asks for them to do more, and they answer by shoving one another away. Krylov’s mouthpiece falls out, and he quickly puts it back in as Bukauskas lets him do so. Krylov lumbers forward and smacks Bukauskas in the temple with a lead-leg head kick, and he skims his man on the temple with a looping left. Bukauskas sits down on a chopping kick, and he slides away from the trio of punches aimed at his mug. Krylov narrowly evades bombs chucked at his chin, although Bukauskas is able to get him a few times. Krylov strikes back, with his blows having an impact as Bukauskas’ left cheek is swelling up fast. Krylov ducks down for a looping right, and he dodges a big right hand and manages to kick the body on the way out. Bukauskas overswings his right hand and is blocked, with “The Baltic Gladiator” hunting for that home run blow. He manages to get off a spinning back kick to the body, and they trade hands until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
The two reach the final round and share a fist bump before throwing caution to the wind. Both men lob huge hooks at one another, and they largely escape the damage from them thanks to just enough head movement. Krylov goes low to high with two kicks, and he steps in and blasts Bukauskas with a left hand. Krylov gets off another booming punch, and Bukauskas sits down on counters but largely comes up short. “The Miner” digs a kick to the midsection and is countered, but the damage is done as his kick connected. Bukauskas waits for the one big opening, and Krylov is dancing around the edges of range hitting him with anything he offers. Bukauskas snaps the head back with a solid left, but it is one-and-done before Krylov rushes at him to trade leather. Bukauskas clips him again, and Krylov pays no attention to the blow and plods ever forward. He works the body with a kick, and sways back from the looping counters.
Bukauskas lands a calf kick, and Krylov nods at him and doubles up on kicks from his rear leg. Bukauskas keeps his guard up to defend himself from the blows, and he winds up on a right hand that misses the mark. Krylov tanks two punches on the jaw and frustrates his foe with push kicks to the body. Krylov sneaks in a left hand while hurling heavy shots, and Bukauskas is left playing catch-up. They trade punches after Bukauskas absorbs a calf kick, and Bukauskas tries to take advantage of the strike by loading up on more. They miss, and the crowd boos. Krylov leads with a low kick into a jab, and he gets caught by a right hand and waves Bukauskas on for more. Bukauskas gives him more with a crisp left, and Krylov dances around and switches stances a few times. Krylov dodges a wheel kick and gets blazed with a right hand, and he is on a mission. Hearing the 10-second clapper, “The Miner” digs deep and unloads with a fire and fury while Bukauskas is overloading on his own strikes.
Krylov catches his man cleanly with a ferocious right hand that sets “The Baltic Gladiator” down and forces his eyes to roll around in his head. Bukauskas turns to try to recover, crawling to his knees to the fence, and Krylov races after him and batters him with destructive right hands. One particularly effective fist shuts Bukauskas’ lights out and his post arms give way, leading to Bukauskas collapsing on his face like a failed push-up.
Goddard sees that Bukauskas went out and rushes in to stop the fight, keeping the finish streak—and buzzer-beater pattern—alive today. It may have taken just about 15 minutes to get there, but Krylov registered a huge knockout after a close battle, his first since 2022 when he smoked Alexander Gustafsson.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Modestas Bukauskas R3 4:57 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.

This is just a fun fight. You don't need to bet on everything. Just sit back, relax, enjoy.
"I'm going to take the more powerful striker over the guy with the failing chin. So Modesus is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.

Bukauskas by KO/TKO in round 2
"I'm taking the guy who's not completely washed and that's Modest Bukowskis. I'm going to take Bukowskis to knock out Krill."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.

"I'm going to edge him out with Krylov. It's very much a question of is he done? And he's 33 years old. It's not really done by the numbers, but you know, Paul mentioned it two-year layoff and he's come …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.

"I got to take bakaskis. I hate to see it because when he was in his prime he was out there with like a high volume kicking game."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2026 (16 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.

"I think Bukasquez comes out here, gets the biggest win of his career, and for the first time becomes a ranked UFC light heavyweight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.

"I kind of feel like Kryle wins skill set for skill set here. And if he comes in with a good game plan with his chin not being completely paper or dust, then he has a good shot of winning …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.

Bukauskas by knockout
"I love this line on Bukowskis. You know, he's made some bonehead mistakes in the past to make fights a little bit closer than they should be. So that kind of gives me a little bit of pause in terms …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 21, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.

"I do tend to to lean towards Picowskis, but I'm a little bit hesitant because I think his wrestling is still there to be exploited."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Modi by KO in round two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 23, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.

"He seems like he's starting the fight panicked. Which is bad. And just imagine how he's going to feel when he looks into medestus bakowskis's empty eyes."
LOSS vs Bogdan Guskov
KO R1 4:18 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bogdan Guskov 1 23 of 43 53% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 16 of 34 47% 6 of 20 3 of 5 7 of 9 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Guskov 23 of 43 53% 20 of 40 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 26 0 of 0 12 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo picks Nikita Krylov, citing his well-rounded skills, high fight IQ, and clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes Bogdan Guskov has power but showed wrestling holes in his last fight. He uses MMA math (Krylov beat Volkan, Volkan beat Guskov) and expects Krylov to wrestle. He will not bet on this fight.

No bet
"Nikita's going to be the pick because it's an obvious path forward and he is a very high fight IQ fighter. I'm not betting on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Guskov has been outgrappled by lesser fighters like Billy Elekana and Volkan Oezdemir, and believes Krylov will take him down and submit him easily. He worries about Krylov's durability and fight IQ but thinks if he wrestles, he wins. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I got to go Krillof here. ... if he goes out there and gets takedowns, he should make this look quite easy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor acknowledges Krylov's shaky confidence after the Reyes KO but believes Guskov's style is more manageable. He notes Guskov's poor takedown defense and Krylov's clear path to win via wrestling. He thinks Krylov will test his grappling early and avoid striking exchanges.

"I'll take Krylov, but I'm going to take Krylov too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

This is a perfect matchup for Krylov to utilize his grapple-heavy approach, keep Guskov on his back, grind him out, and clearly win on the scorecards or even lock up a late submission.

decision or late submission
"I think this is a perfect match up for Krillof to go out there and utilize his grapple heavy approach and keep Guskov on his back, grind him out and clearly win this fight on the scorecards or even locking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Guskov, citing his patience, calmness, and ability to eat shots and break opponents. He criticizes Nikita Krylov for returning too soon after a KO loss and being too wild. He predicts an early TKO, possibly in round one or two, with multiple knockdowns.

TKO, round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Bogdan Guskov getting this one done against Nikita Krylov by TKO early."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, noting that Guskov is vulnerable to wrestling and Krylov has the skills to exploit that. He sees the potential for disaster if Krylov hesitates, but believes the path to victory is clear via takedowns and ground control.

"Yeah, I mean, I'll take Krylov."
LOSS vs Dominick Reyes
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 4 of 22 18% 3 of 16 1 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 5 of 14 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, agreeing with Zane that Krylov's chain wrestling and durability are key. He notes that Reyes has shown good basic takedown defense but has not faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Connor also points out that Krylov's approach of putting opponents on one leg and making them hop is effective against bigger fighters. He acknowledges that if Reyes can stuff the first few takedowns, he could hurt Krylov, but believes Krylov's pressure will eventually pay off.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi notes that Dominick Reyes got back on track with a knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one. He describes Nikita Krylov as a wild man with a karate style that runs forward, which allowed Reyes to counter him. He is happy for Reyes' comeback story.

"Dominic Ray has got back on track in an emphatic fashion. You know, knockout 2 minutes and 24 seconds into round one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Lucrative James leans towards Nikita Krylov, citing his durability, pace, and ability to break opponents. He thinks Krylov's hurricane style and wrestling pressure will wear down Reyes. He acknowledges Reyes' power and step-back left hand but believes Krylov's chin and volume will be too much. He notes that Reyes has been knocked out multiple times, while Krylov has shown better durability. He says it's a close fight and he wouldn't lay juice on Krylov, but if forced to pick, he sides with Krylov inside the distance.

He predicts Krylov wins inside the distance.
"I'm going to side with Kryov here. I'll say he gets it done inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, citing his relentless chain wrestling and ability to overwhelm opponents with volume. He notes that Reyes has good first-layer takedown defense but has rarely faced a wrestler who chains attacks like Krylov. Zane also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out, only submitted, and that Reyes lacks the submission threat to finish him on the ground. He believes Krylov's wrestling pressure will be too much for Reyes to handle over three rounds.

"I think I have to pick Nikita Crowe. Because two, the other thing that I'm looking at then too is not only has Krylov not been knocked out, but how many takedowns does Krylov go for? Really? And dozens? The …"
WIN vs Ryan Spann
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)

Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.

Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) bet suggestion
"I'm no longer gonna bet on the key to cry love I've lost that much confidence him I think he probably still wins this... but the bet is definitely going to be Ryan span inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say span locks up locks up a submission here in the very first round hard to be confident in picking a winner in this fight but I'll take span for the slight upset"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.

"I think I'm flip-flopping over to Ryan span and again it's for like nothing other than just bad juju narrative by Nikita Karlov pulls out of a fight two weeks ago"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I think the only reason I would ever pick Ryan Spann in this fight is on the idea that he would knock Nikita Krylov out and that has never happened. ... Krylov, he wrestles everyone. That is really truly how …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.

Krylov inside the distance, by submission
"give me krilloff inside the distance let's say by submission but that early threat from Ryan span is going to be it's going to be a lot which will likely keep me off of this fight completely"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.

"crylove is still the pick but I'm even less confident in it this week than I was last week or two weeks ago"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.

by TKO or submission, second or third round
"I'm gonna trust in Nikita krylov even though he was Ill been two weeks he's definitely recovered since then I think the illness will help him keep his weight down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I got a numbers like that. I mean, even with the 50%, how do you not pick Krylov? You know, he's going to keep trying."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 42 of 81 51% 108 of 157 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
Volkan Oezdemir 0 57 of 121 47% 171 of 251 7 of 20 35% 1 0 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 27 of 50 54% 46 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Volkan Oezdemir 0 26 of 58 44% 31 of 64 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:02
2 Nikita Krylov 0 11 of 18 61% 42 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Volkan Oezdemir 0 11 of 27 40% 54 of 78 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:28
3 Nikita Krylov 0 4 of 13 30% 20 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Volkan Oezdemir 0 20 of 36 55% 86 of 109 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 42 of 81 51% 35 of 72 3 of 3 4 of 6 34 of 68 5 of 9 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 57 of 121 47% 42 of 100 12 of 18 3 of 3 38 of 93 12 of 17 7 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 27 of 50 54% 24 of 47 0 of 0 3 of 3 20 of 39 4 of 7 3 of 4
Volkan Oezdemir 26 of 58 44% 17 of 46 7 of 10 2 of 2 17 of 45 8 of 10 1 of 3
2 Nikita Krylov 11 of 18 61% 8 of 14 2 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 11 of 27 40% 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 23 0 of 2 2 of 2
3 Nikita Krylov 4 of 13 30% 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Volkan Oezdemir 20 of 36 55% 15 of 30 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 25 4 of 5 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He notes Oezdemir looked off in his last fight against Paul Craig and is getting older. Krylov has multiple paths to victory: knockout on the feet or submission on the ground, with 27 of 28 wins inside the distance. He believes Krylov's pressure and finishing ability will be too much for Oezdemir.

first round knockout
"I think krilloff to win by I'll say first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Cody picks Krylov, noting his fast starts and power. He thinks Krylov can catch Oezdemir early and finish him. Cody acknowledges Krylov's poor decisions and gas tank but believes Oezdemir's best days are behind him. He sees Krylov as the better fighter at this point.

"I will go with Nikki to cry"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Daniel Levi picks Nikita Krylov to win, believing Krylov is showing the best version of himself while Volkan Oezdemir is fizzling out. He notes Krylov's improved submission defense and well-rounded game, and that he performed well against top competition like Magomed Ankalaev. Levi thinks Oezdemir is a traditional kickboxer who has declined, while Krylov blends punches, kicks, and takedowns. He does not see much value in the line but picks Krylov.

"I just see uh Nikita Krill out coming out here winning this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Volkan Oezdemir

Paul leans Oezdemir as an underdog, citing his takedown defense and experience. He notes that only Daniel Cormier has taken Oezdemir down more than once. Paul thinks Krylov's wrestling is overrated and that Oezdemir will make it a slow fight. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Oezdemir.

"I'm leaning towards Vulcan as an underdog in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov over Volkan Oezdemir, despite Oezdemir's win over Paul Craig. He notes Krylov was dominating Craig before getting caught, while Oezdemir looked slow and tired. He highlights Krylov's reach advantage, head kicks, and momentum from a KO win, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"I'm going with Nikki to kryl off over volcano's DeMent"
KO (punches) R1 1:07 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 2 26 of 44 59% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Alexander Gustafsson 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 2 26 of 44 59% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Alexander Gustafsson 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 26 of 44 59% 24 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2 15 of 29 4 of 5 7 of 10
Alexander Gustafsson 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 26 of 44 59% 24 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2 15 of 29 4 of 5 7 of 10
Alexander Gustafsson 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo picks Nikita Krylov but is hesitant due to Gustafsson's two-year layoff and three-fight losing streak. He notes Krylov is well-rounded and has a good chin, but questions his fight IQ after the Paul Craig loss. He says the odds favoring Krylov are surprising and calls it a no-bet situation, expecting Gustafsson to look older and slower.

no bet
"nikita is the pick i would love if alexander augustine looked great though but i just don't see that happening"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by finish (ground and pound or submission in round 2). He is hesitant due to question marks about Gustafsson's layoff and motivation. He notes Gustafsson hasn't won in five years and hasn't fought in two years. Krylov is more active and dangerous, but if Gustafsson shows up motivated, it's a different fight.

Krylov by finish in round 2
"give me krill off for those reasons give me krill off to win i will say like second round uh grounded pound or second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Cody leans towards Alexander Gustafsson, citing that his losses are to top competition and he may have recaptured motivation after a two-year layoff. He notes Krylov has durability issues and tends to fade in later rounds. Cody thinks Gustafsson can use his mobility and grappling to neutralize Krylov and win a decision. He acknowledges there are many red flags but sees value in the underdog.

under 90.5 fantasy score for Krylov on PrizePicks
"i would classify it as a dogger pass so ever so slightly i'm i'm just going to jump into the unknown and go with gustafsson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Daniel Levi confidently picks Nikita Krylov, arguing that Gustafsson is past his prime and has already retired once, saying he didn't have what it takes anymore. He notes that Krylov is only 30 and entering his prime, with a well-rounded game and a Kyokushin karate background. Levi acknowledges Krylov's occasional bonehead mistakes but believes he will outwork Gustafsson. He also mentions that he likes fading washed-up fighters and that Krylov is a motivated underdog in this spot.

Mentions he is looking to bet Krylov, implying a betting interest.
"i think nikita krillov is the guy who's been watching alexander gustafson his entire career and this is like a big motivating fight for him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Gustafsson looks in phenomenal shape and has a big skill advantage over Krylov. His takedown defense is 83%. Krylov's wins are over lesser competition. If Gustafsson is even 70% of his peak, he wins handily. However, motivation is a question mark, so I'm passing on betting but predicting Gustafsson.

"I am going to make that switch I am going to go on the Customs inside"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Gustafsson

Paul picks Alexander Gustafsson at plus money, calling minus 200 on Krylov ridiculous. He notes Gustafsson has looked horrible recently but his losses are to elite fighters. Paul admits he doesn't have the courage to bet Gustafsson confidently and will wait for weigh-ins. He says he won't bet money on it.

"i'll pick gustafson for the purposes of the show because it's plus money and i think minus 200 on krylov is is kind of ridiculous"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov to win by submission in the first or second round. He questions Gustafsson's reasons for returning and notes Krylov is underrated. Krylov put a pace on Ankalaev and has great stand-up. Gustafsson has poor ground game and has been submitted when taken down. Krylov will take him down and secure a submission.

first or second round submission
"i'm gonna swipe with nikita krylov getting this one done against alexander gustafsson second round first round rooney choke submission"
LOSS vs Paul Craig
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:57 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Mar 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paul Craig 0 19 of 25 76% 30 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:49
Nikita Krylov 0 2 of 3 66% 11 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paul Craig 0 19 of 25 76% 30 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:49
Nikita Krylov 0 2 of 3 66% 11 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paul Craig 19 of 25 76% 18 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 22
Nikita Krylov 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paul Craig 19 of 25 76% 18 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 22
Nikita Krylov 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Angelo picks Paul Craig as an underdog, noting his incredible toughness and submission threat. He thinks Krylov is more well-rounded but less dangerous, and will likely win a decision if he fights perfectly. He expects Craig to withstand a beating and find a finish on the ground. He plans to bet on Paul Craig wins inside the distance (decision no action) at plus money.

bet: Paul Craig wins inside the distance (decision no action) at +200
"i like paul craig in the underdog spot and i think he can win this fight he is my underdog pick here but betting wise i will likely do a paul craig wins inside the distance decision no action bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Big Brady picks Nikita Krylov to win by first-round knockout. He likes Krylov's knockout power and believes Paul Craig's chin is suspect. Brady notes that if the fight goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but he thinks Krylov can avoid the grappling and finish early. He also mentions Craig's talk of retirement as a potential factor.

first round knockout
"give me kriloff to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Cody picks Krylov but is hesitant, noting Krylov's tendency to make bad decisions and engage in grappling with submission experts. He thinks Krylov should win if he keeps it standing, but worries he might get caught. He prefers Craig by submission as a prop.

paul craig by submission plus 450
"krylov i guess is the pick but i don't love it i'm staying away from it like the plague"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Daniel Levi picks Paul Craig by submission at +450, noting that Nikita Krylov has five career submission losses and a history of making bonehead mistakes on the mat. He believes Craig only needs one opportunity to snatch a submission, as seen against Jamal Hill. Levi acknowledges Krylov may win the minutes and has knockout potential, but at plus money, he's willing to bet on Craig's opportunistic submission game. He also mentions the hometown advantage for Craig in the UK.

Craig by submission +450
"craig by sub at uh plus 450 are you [ __ ] me right now plus 450 that's all that's craig's best value"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Krylov has power striking and good combinations, which should overwhelm Craig on the feet. However, five of Krylov's eight losses are by submission, a huge red flag against a submission specialist like Craig. Craig is dangerous off his back, constantly throwing up submissions. The fight likely ends inside the distance, but Krylov's striking advantage should lead to a knockout. I'm picking Krylov by KO, but the fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite bet.

Fight doesn't go to decision (parlay piece); Krylov by knockout
"Official prediction is Nikita Krylov by knockout but the fight doesn't go to the decision is probably something that I'll be parlaying."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov confidently, arguing that Krylov has fought elite competition and improved his takedown defense. He believes Krylov's striking is far superior and that Craig's wins are overrated. He thinks Krylov will win by KO if he fights smart.

"i just got to go with more probabilities he doesn't get caught and he probably smashes him out of here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The Guru picks Nikita Krylov, arguing he is underrated and has better performances than Paul Craig. He notes Krylov held his own against Glover Teixeira and outgrappled Magomed Ankalaev in round one. He criticizes Craig's chin and mentions Craig's retirement talk. He predicts a first-round TKO on the feet, as Craig tends to go down when hit clean.

first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nikita krylov... i'm gonna call a first round tko for nikita cried off here on the feet"