UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Sep 15, 2018 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 3"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Magomed Ankalaev
3.65 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.59 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.79 TD Avg
22.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marcin Prachnio
5.52 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.15 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.14 TD Avg
20.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Magomed Ankalaev - Fight History
SCHED vs Bogdan Guskov
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (9 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

AJ picks Ankalaev confidently, citing his win over Alex Pereira as evidence of his high level. He dismisses Bogdan Guskov as a lesser opponent, stating 'I don't think he loses to Bogdan Guskov.' The pick is straightforward with no hedging.

"Dude, I think it's big Ank time. Guy has a win over Alex Pereira. I don't think he loses to Bogdan Guskov."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo believes Ankalaev is more technically sound and will manage range effectively against Guskov, who is a heavy-handed but limited striker. He dismisses concerns about Ankalaev's chin after the Pereira knockout, attributing it to injury/illness, and thinks Guskov's power is not comparable to Pereira's. He expects a one-sided affair and thinks the odds are not wide enough.

Odds not wide enough; should be more one-sided
"Ankolive is going to be the pick. I know a ton of you are going to say he's chilly because Alex knocked him out... I actually believe all of the stories that they said. Oh, he came into this injured. …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Ankalaev to win by decision, citing his technical style, defensive responsibility, and ability to win minutes in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Guskov's short notice and vulnerability to takedowns, as seen against Ryan Spann. However, he admits he's not excited about Ankalaev's fights, calling them boring, but acknowledges Ankalaev is a phenomenal fighter who should win outside of a puncher's chance.

"I'm going Ankalaev here to win. And I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

James picks Ankalaev as the clear winner, citing his superiority in almost all facets of MMA except maybe punch power. He notes Ankalaev's better striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience, and that Guskov is on short notice moving from a 3-round to a 5-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Ankalaev, acknowledging Guskov's puncher's chance but favoring the more proven fighter.

Ankalaev via decision
"I only have one winner here guys and that is Magab anchor live. In my opinion, he's better out almost all facets of MMA outside of maybe punch power."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
KO R1 1:20 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 0 28 of 45 62% 28 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Pereira 0 28 of 45 62% 28 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 4 of 9 44% 0 of 4 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 28 of 45 62% 21 of 35 3 of 6 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 23 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 4 of 9 44% 0 of 4 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Pereira 28 of 45 62% 21 of 35 3 of 6 4 of 4 5 of 12 0 of 0 23 of 33
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing the rematch will be similar to the first fight. He argues that Alex Pereira's narrative about trusting his takedown defense and letting his hands go is flawed because Ankalaev almost knocked him out in the first fight. He also notes that defending takedowns is easier when that's all you focus on, and that Ankalaev now knows he can handle Pereira's power. He expects Ankalaev to win more dominantly.

"I'm going to pick Ankolia here. I don't think this fight is any different from the first one. If anything, it will be wider."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady is concerned about Pereira's age (38), potential lack of focus due to newfound wealth and lifestyle, and recent performances. He believes Ankalaev is hungrier and more dedicated. He notes that Ankalaev almost finished Pereira in the second round of their first fight and that Pereira has been hurt multiple times. He predicts Ankalaev wins by third-round knockout.

Magomed Ankalaev by third round knockout.
"I'm actually going to take Ankal alive to win this fight and Ankalive to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Connor picks Ankalaev, agreeing with Zane that Pereira's age and the way Ankalaev pressured him in the first fight are key factors. He emphasizes that Ankalaev's ability to make clutch decisions and prevent big swings, combined with Pereira's declining willingness to take risks, makes Ankalaev the likely winner. Connor also notes that Pereira's back-foot game is not strong enough to counter Ankalaev's pressure.

"Seeing the way that first fight played out, it's kind of hard not to pick uncle live."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

The host expects a more violent and aggressive Pereira, which could work for or against him. He likes the under 3.5 rounds and believes Ankalaev will catch a reckless Pereira and knock him out, replicating the previous fight's success.

under 3.5 rounds, finish
"I really like the under three and a half in this matchup as I think this fight will produce a finish and I ultimately think it's going to be Ankalaev that catches a little bit of a reckless approach from …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing his wrestling, boxing, and mental focus will be key. He notes Pereira's difficulty with southpaws and the likelihood that Ankalaev improves his takedown efficiency. He predicts a finish in the championship rounds.

finish in round 4 or 5
"I'm going to go with Magomed Ankalaev. I'm not going to let what I want cloud my opinion and my judgement."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev because he believes Pereira's age and stylistic progression have made him more cautious and less willing to pull the trigger. He notes that Ankalaev is adept at steering fights and maintaining a narrow lead, and that Pereira struggled to create offense when pressured in their first fight. Zane also mentions that Ankalaev has never been knocked out and has a good chin, though he acknowledges Pereira's power is always a threat.

"I am going to pick him much to the UFC's chagrin. I'm picking uncle."
WIN vs Alex Pereira
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 76 of 137 55% 97 of 159 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 94 of 180 52% 127 of 224 0 of 12 0% 0 0 5:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 16 of 34 47% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 9 of 27 33% 12 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Alex Pereira 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Alex Pereira 0 21 of 34 61% 21 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 17 of 40 42% 18 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
4 Alex Pereira 0 7 of 12 58% 23 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 24 79% 45 of 61 0 of 6 0% 0 0 3:50
5 Alex Pereira 0 14 of 21 66% 15 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 20 of 36 55% 23 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 76 of 137 55% 11 of 57 17 of 25 48 of 55 69 of 130 7 of 7 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 94 of 180 52% 36 of 112 30 of 39 28 of 29 75 of 159 19 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 16 of 34 47% 0 of 11 2 of 5 14 of 18 16 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 9 of 27 33% 1 of 18 3 of 4 5 of 5 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 18 of 36 50% 3 of 16 5 of 7 10 of 13 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 29 of 53 54% 18 of 40 9 of 10 2 of 3 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Pereira 21 of 34 61% 4 of 16 2 of 3 15 of 15 20 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 17 of 40 42% 5 of 26 6 of 8 6 of 6 16 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Alex Pereira 7 of 12 58% 0 of 4 6 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 6 6 of 6 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 24 79% 7 of 11 6 of 7 6 of 6 7 of 11 12 of 13 0 of 0
5 Alex Pereira 14 of 21 66% 4 of 10 2 of 3 8 of 8 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 20 of 36 55% 5 of 17 6 of 10 9 of 9 14 of 30 6 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-258), Pereira (+210)

Round 1
In March, Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 NC; 12-1-1, 1 NC UFC) claimed the throne most expected he would sit atop by outworking Pereira (12-3, 9-2 UFC). After about seven months to prepare for the second engagement, the light heavyweight champs run it back, this time with “Poatan” as the challenger. Violence is expected to be the currency of the main event, and referee Herb Dean will be its banker. The two players are all in, and despite a bit of bad blood blossoming, they do bump their sizeable fists together. Time to spin the wheel.
Pereira rushes right out of his corner to hurl a one-two at the champion, and Ankalaev backs off and pushes off three front kicks to the chest. Pereira marches Ankalaev down, keeping him against the wall as he slaps a kick off the front leg. Ankalaev gains a little space from a swatting combination, and a second misses the mark when Pereira parries. The Brazilian works the other front leg after Ankalaev switches stances, and he clubs Ankalaev with a massive right hand. Ankalaev shoots desperately, his bell rung, and Pereira bowls him over and pounces on top of him. Pereira starts laying into Ankalaev with punches and elbows, and he jackhammers the Russian with devastating 12-to-6 elbows. Dean is paying close attention but observes Ankalaev blocking the majority of the blows so he sits back. Pereira is not about to slow down, knowing that Ankalaev is at least rocked or at best in grave danger. The fired-up “Poatan” batters and brutalizes the sitting champ, crushing him with elbows to the body and finalizing his journey with one last barrage of downward elbows. Dean steps in, and Pereira motions with both hands to the downed Ankalaev like he did in a past triumph, the “chama” version of “you see what happens, Larry!” Pereira goes to embrace his corner, and he checks on his toes that might have sustained some damage in the roughly 80 seconds of demolition.
The crowd goes wild, clearly having picked a side in this dispute and it was not the Russian. “Poatan” has the belt draped around his waist by matchmaker Mick Maynard and not UFC chief Dana White, and he puts his hand to his ear to drink in Bruce Buffer’s victory announcement. “Vengeance is never a good thing,” Pereira admits, even as he exacts revenge on a man that beat him earlier this year. He has handed Ankalaev his first defeat via strikes, and he declares that he was not surprised, mister falcons. Rather than call out former two-division champ Jon Jones, Pereira asks if the audience can give Arthur Jones, recently deceased brother of Jon Jones, a moment of silence. The entire T-Mobile Arena silences itself in an instant, giving Jones’ family and loved ones the respect they deserve. Just like that, the Ankalaev era is over, and Pereira already has a few challengers lined up in the form of Carlos Ulberg and possibly Jiri Prochazka—although the latter has already lost twice to him. The party begins, with Pereira and his crew at Teixeira MMA & Fitness dancing in the Octagon to celebrate the spectacular triumph. When Pereira defends his new belt, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Magomed Ankalaev R1 1:20 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Connor picks Pereira because he trusts Pereira's durability and defensive instincts, and believes Pereira's pressure and willingness to punch in the pocket will force Ankalaev out of his comfort zone. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of complacency and inconsistency, and that Pereira's jab and combination punching are poison for counter punchers like Ankalaev. Connor acknowledges that Ankalaev has the tools to win but is not trustworthy.

Odds are dead even; Connor is surprised Ankalaev opened as favorite and thinks Pereira should be favored.
"I think I'm going to pick it. Yeah. And I think the reason is that I think Pereira can, I think, A, I'm going to trust his durability..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Lucrative James believes Ankalaev's wrestling advantage is the key factor. He notes that Ankalaev has been wrestling since childhood, while Pereira's grappling is a clear weakness. He argues that if Ankalaev uses his wrestling consistently, he will dominate from top position and win the fight. He also mentions that Pereira's hype has driven the line to a pick'em, but he sees Ankalaev as the rightful favorite. He acknowledges Pereira's elite striking and power, but thinks Ankalaev's low-paced kickboxing style minimizes danger and allows him to set up takedowns.

Ankalaev via wrestling control, decision or submission; odds are pick'em (-110) but James thinks Ankalaev should be favored
"I think anal is going to be smart in this one I think he's going to use his wrestling I think he's going to take Alex Pereira down and I think he's going to dominate from top position and that …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev despite his inconsistency, believing that the threat of Pereira's power will force Ankalaev to take risks and finally put together a complete performance. He notes that Ankalaev has the technical ability to trouble Pereira, especially with his southpaw right hook and counter punching, and that he has historically risen to the occasion when pressured. However, Zane admits it's a feast-or-famine pick and that Pereira is the smarter choice.

Odds are dead even; Zane is surprised Ankalaev opened as favorite and thinks Pereira should be favored.
"I'm going to take it, but I, you know, I do think like the, the core crux of what is wrong with his game really, really makes this a feast or famine fight when it shouldn't be."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 55 of 114 48% 75 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Aleksandar Rakić 0 53 of 117 45% 59 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 34 55% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 0 23 of 50 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Aleksandar Rakić 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Aleksandar Rakić 0 12 of 29 41% 17 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 55 of 114 48% 20 of 72 22 of 29 13 of 13 50 of 105 5 of 9 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 53 of 117 45% 10 of 65 9 of 12 34 of 40 50 of 111 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 34 55% 7 of 19 8 of 11 4 of 4 19 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 22 of 45 48% 4 of 24 3 of 4 15 of 17 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 23 of 50 46% 8 of 33 7 of 9 8 of 8 23 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 19 of 43 44% 3 of 24 3 of 5 13 of 14 18 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 30 43% 5 of 20 7 of 9 1 of 1 8 of 22 5 of 8 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 12 of 29 41% 3 of 17 3 of 3 6 of 9 10 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-345), Rakic (+275)

Round 1
Austria has dual representation on the lineup, a rarity among UFC cards let alone ones that take place in the Middle East and not Europe. Russian title challenger Ankalaev (18-1-1, 1 NC; 10-1-1, 1 NC UFC) will try to grind, smash and press towards another crack at gold, but standing in his way is a recovered Rakic (14-4, 6-3 UFC). While Rakic is riding the first losing streak of his career, and has not won in over three years, he still serves as a solid test that Ankalaev has not already passed at the depleted light heavyweight ranks. Joining them in the cage will be referee “Shaolin” Vitor Ribeiro, who gets things started as the combatants decide against touching gloves. Ankalaev opens up wildly, hurling a huge left hand, only to slow down when Rakic fires a head kick at him. Ankalaev responds with a body kick, and they trade kicks to varied targets. Rakic comes up short with a right hand, and they hand-fight in alternating stances. Body kicks land with thumps on one another, and Rakic doubles up on it and tries to catch a low kick. Ankalaev digs another kick to the ribs, and Ribeiro asks for the fighters to close their fists. They don’t. Rakic chains a right hand into a head kick, and he scoots away when Ankalaev bears down on him. Ankalaev reaches his target with a straight left hand, and Rakic sits down on an inside low kick to retaliate. Ankalaev put a few fists on the midsection, keeping his guard up to block the inevitable head kick. Rakic scores a low kick and is punched in the face for his effort, and he times a head kick that nearly splits the guard. Ankalaev goes after a body kick after he leans back to dodge a punch, and Rakic chips away at the lead leg effectively. Ankalaev stalks him down, protecting his face when Rakic punches and kicks his way. Rakic kicks the front leg on the inside and outside, and Ribeiro keeps telling the fighters to close their hands to no avail. Ankalaev gets countered with a right hand over the top, and he eats a jab after landing his own left. Rakic beats on the guard with his shin, and he whiffs on a haymaker as Ankalaev comes up close. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 2
Rakic picks up right where he left off, feeding Ankalaev a steady diet of leg kicks. Ankalaev crashes the pocket and turns to smack Rakic in the face with a clever up-elbow, and Rakic wears it well. Both men whiff punches, and Ankalaev’s head kick grazes the beard. Rakic reaches out with a right hand, and he jabs the body with the ball of his foot. Rakic splits the guard with a solid right, and he leans back to bash Ankalaev in the face with an intercepting left. Ankalaev reaches his target with punches to the head and body, and he ends as labored combination with a body kick. Ankalaev jabs his way in, but a left to the body is his best blow, as Rakic keeps a solid poker face but might be hurt. Rakic backs off and measures with distant strikes, and the crowd works into a lather in support of the Russian, who is landing cleaner. Ankalaev digs a left to the body and fires off a head kick that is blocked just in time, and he strings a few punches together to get Rakic’s attention. Rakic snaps out several more low kicks, reddening and welting his opponent’s front leg, but not seemingly compromising him. Ankalaev’s forward movement results in a clinch, and he pushes the Austrian to the wall and holds on. They both swing fists at the break but miss the mark, and Ankalaev rushes after him and tags his foe with a straight left. Ankalaev stabs the torso with a left hand, and he has a left hook brush past the top of Rakic’s dome. Rakic kicks high to get blocked, and he looks for a right hand on the inside as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev

Round 3
The fighters get going immediately, trading hands and feet without fear of reprisal. Ankalaev lunges with a left hand, snapping the head back and whiffing on a follow-up right. High kicks from both men bounce off the other’s guard, and Rakic backs off and spins with a back fist as Ankalaev is after him. Ankalaev slams his foot in the liver of his opponent, and Rakic comes up hitting air on the counter. As Rakic lands a right hand, sweat flies, and Ankalaev responds with a left that makes more fly off his opponent. Rakic digs for a body shot and leans back to avoid a huge hook, and Ankalaev walks him down and busts him in the chops with a scooping left hook. Rakic backs off and absorbs a second cleanly, and he gets on his bike and strafes to the side. Rakic suddenly shoots for a single, and Ankalaev hops back to the wall to keep his balance and set his limb down. Rakic transitions to a single on the other side, and he succeeds in leaning against Ankalaev but can do little else with his wrestling. Ankalaev turns his man about in the clinch, working the body with punches and knees until Rakic surges into action and spins him about. Ankalaev plants a solid knee on the torso, and he measures another as Rakic leans over. Ankalaev puts knees on the body as Rakic gains enough space to dirty box, and the Russian holds him tight until the slow-paced contest comes to a merciful conclusion—with neither looking like a strong threat to claim the throne of Alex Pereira.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)

The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev def. Aleksandar Rakic via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev as the first leg of his 'villain parlay' with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Ankalaev is a good kickboxer with wrestling, but he dislikes him and hopes the parlay loses. He thinks Ankalaev should win because Rakić is coming off two losses and hasn't won since 2021, and Ankalaev has the technical striking and wrestling advantage.

First leg of a villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it loses.
"mag anv has the wrestling he's got the technical striking he's just as long anv should win he is the first leg of the villain parlay a parlay that I put a full unit on and I hope it breaks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady slightly favors Ankalaev but thinks the fight will be close and competitive. He expects the striking to be competitive and the fight to go to decision. He notes that Ankalaev has a path to victory via wrestling, as Rakić hasn't faced many wrestlers in the UFC. He calls the line 'kind of dumb' but picks Ankalaev to win a close decision.

"I'll take ank live to win a close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Magomed Ankalaev, stating he is the uncrowned champion of the division and should roll over Rakić. He notes that Rakić hasn't looked good since 2019, has been knocked out in his last two fights, and lacks durability and volume. Cody believes Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be too much, and that he will be motivated to make a statement to earn a title shot.

"ankle should in theory absolutely roll here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Connor picks Rakić, mainly because he wants Ankalaev to suffer and because Rakić is a more powerful striker with better fundamentals. He notes that Ankalaev tends to fight at a slow pace and rely on his wrestling, but often doesn't use it. Connor believes Rakić's jab and counter-punching could give him an edge in a kickboxing match.

Ankalaev opened at -350, currently -361; Rakić opened at +288, currently +296
"I'm going to pick Rocketch mostly because though I don't think he deserves it in any philosophical sense, I do want Magomed Uncle Liev to suffer."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing his superior hands and ability to capitalize on Rakić's tendency to exit the pocket with his chin up. He expects Rakić to have early leg kick success but believes Ankalaev will make adjustments and either win by knockout or a 29-28 decision. Vreeland notes that Ankalaev is on a 12-fight unbeaten streak and that Rakić has been underwhelming despite his physique.

"I see ankle live winning this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Lucrative James picks Magomed Ankalaev to win but is hesitant due to Ankalaev's poor fight IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter with grappling upside, but his low volume and lack of power could lead to a close decision. He sees value on Rakić as an underdog and expects a split decision type fight. He is not confident enough to bet on Ankalaev at -360 odds.

"I am going to pick anive to win... but his fight IQ is worse"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev's overall game is too much for Rakić. Many expect a grapple-heavy approach, but Ankalaev may unleash his striking to catch Rakić off guard, leading to a knockout victory. This would help him overcome the 'boring' label and earn a title shot.

Ankalaev wins by knockout
"give me anive by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, agreeing that he is the best in the division and that Rakić is not a top-five fighter. He points out that Rakić has been outworked and knocked out in his recent fights, and that Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be decisive. Paul also mentions that Ankalaev needs to put his foot on the gas to impress the UFC.

"he's the uncrowned champ he's the best guy in the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The Guru picks Ankalaev by decision, despite acknowledging Rakić's technical skills. He believes Ankalaev's pressure and clinch work will wear on Rakić, and that Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to secure rounds. He notes that Rakić has struggled to finish opponents and that Ankalaev's boxing will become more effective as the fight goes on. The Guru also mentions that the odds are too wide in Ankalaev's favor, suggesting Rakić offers value as an underdog, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev via 29-28 decision.

Odds comment: Ankalaev nearly 4-to-1 favorite, should be 2-to-1 at most; suggests Rakić underdog value
"I'm going with Ankalaev 29-28 decision very eerily similar to the Nikita Krylov performance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)

Zane did not make a pick for this fight. He criticized the matchup as boring, noting both fighters are consistent, risk-averse range strikers who favor high-percentage low-power strikes. He expressed disappointment that the UFC booked this fight knowing their styles, and predicted Ankalaev will likely get a title shot anyway due to lack of other options.

"booking fights like uncle ayah versus below which and uncle ayah versus rackage you're just asking for lame you're asking for boring fights that nobody gets thrilled by"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev, expecting a slow-paced kickboxing match where Ankalaev edges out a decision. He acknowledges Rakić's power and technique but thinks Ankalaev will control the tempo and win a close fight, as he has done before. Zane is not confident but sees Ankalaev as the likely winner.

Ankalaev opened at -350, currently -361; Rakić opened at +288, currently +296
"And Uncle Liev will win 55 strikes to 51. That's really it."
WIN vs Johnny Walker
KO (punches) R2 2:42 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 1 39 of 58 67% 39 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Johnny Walker 0 24 of 71 33% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Johnny Walker 0 15 of 50 30% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 1 22 of 25 88% 22 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Johnny Walker 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 39 of 58 67% 8 of 22 6 of 7 25 of 29 38 of 57 0 of 0 1 of 1
Johnny Walker 24 of 71 33% 2 of 34 3 of 6 19 of 31 24 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 17 of 33 51% 2 of 13 2 of 3 13 of 17 17 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Johnny Walker 15 of 50 30% 2 of 26 2 of 5 11 of 19 15 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 22 of 25 88% 6 of 9 4 of 4 12 of 12 21 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1
Johnny Walker 9 of 21 42% 0 of 8 1 of 1 8 of 12 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, expecting him to avoid Johnny Walker's wild strikes, clinch, and take him down to wear him out. He notes Ankalaev's wrestling backup and thinks he is desperate for a win. He finds the -500 odds too steep to bet given Walker's danger and Ankalaev's recent no-contest and draw.

"I think maked ankal is going to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady believes Ankalaev can win however he wants, but prefers the wrestling path. He notes Ankalaev's durability and wrestling are superior, while Walker is chinny and unpredictable. He expects Ankalaev to control the fight and win by decision, avoiding prolonged striking exchanges.

decision
"I'll take anive to win this fight and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev to win by decision, noting that Ankalaev won the first fight and can mix in wrestling for cage control. He believes Ankalaev is faster and has a better gas tank, and that Pereira is 38 and unlikely to make major adjustments. He expects another close fight but edges it to Ankalaev.

Ankalaev by decision
"I'm just going to plug my nose and take ankle live by decision because I don't like this pre flop uh pre flop money line at all."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev despite acknowledging his tendency to make fights closer than necessary. He notes that in the brief first fight, Walker had nothing for Ankalaev and that Ankalaev is clearly the more skilled fighter. He believes Ankalaev will win even if he fights a stupid game plan, citing durability and overall skill advantage.

"ankle is clearly the pick for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker. He acknowledges Ankalaev's well-rounded skill set and size, but notes he sometimes underwhelms. He believes Ankalaev will make adjustments after the first fight, where Walker targeted his legs. Vreeland is confident Ankalaev can get the job done wherever the fight goes, though he worries about Walker's athleticism and unorthodox attacks.

"I'm going with Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

James picks Ankalaev to win via KO, citing that Ankalaev hurt Pereira in round two of their first fight and nearly knocked him out. He believes Pereira's chin may give out this time, and Ankalaev could also secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. James notes that Pereira's calf kicks were effective in the first fight but thinks Ankalaev may have adjusted. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds.

Ankalaev wins by KO (+400), under 4.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Magaman alive. I'm going to pick him via KO because I think that he can get a KO on the feet and on the ground."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Magomed Ankalaev is a smooth, technical striker who is comfortable in both stances and has a strong clinch and wrestling game. He showed in the first fight that he could take Walker down and control him. Johnny Walker is on a three-fight winning streak and looks confident, but he has historically struggled against technical fighters and can be overwhelmed by grappling. Ankalaev's discipline and wrestling should allow him to neutralize Walker's power and grind out a decision. The over 1.5 rounds is a good play given Ankalaev's grappling approach.

Over 1.5 rounds, Ankalaev by decision
"the official prediction is going to be on anive by decision low confidence on the decision prop but I do think that anive gets his hand raised relatively easily"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul leans towards Ankalaev but acknowledges the fight is close. He notes that Pereira took rounds off and that Ankalaev's wrestling, even if not successful, gave him cage control. He thinks the line is too wide and prefers the decision prop for Pereira, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev.

Pereira by decision (prop bet)
"I find myself leaning towards Ankaliva, but I agree with you 100%. This thing's probably close uh plays out closer to even money or minus 140 minus 150 ankle of not minus 220 - 230 - 240 depending on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev has the skills to beat anyone but often ignores the wrestling path to victory. He believes Ankalaev is durable enough to take Walker's big shots and will win even if he fights a stupid game plan.

"we got to go with the more skillful guy that wins more often than not and ank alive is that guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as an underdog, citing Walker's finishing ability and reach advantage (82 inches vs 75). He notes that Ankalaev may be frustrated by recent events (draw with Jan, no-contest with Walker) and that Walker got back up quickly from a takedown in the first fight. He predicts Walker will get a TKO/KO, benefiting from Ankalaev's potential emotional state.

KO
"I'm going to go Johnny Walker... I think he's going to beat him I think he has a much better finishing ability on the feet"
LOSS vs Johnny Walker
No Contest (illegal knee) R1 3:13 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 19 68% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Johnny Walker 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 19 68% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Johnny Walker 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 19 68% 7 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 7
Johnny Walker 14 of 27 51% 4 of 15 1 of 2 9 of 10 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 19 68% 7 of 13 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 7
Johnny Walker 14 of 27 51% 4 of 15 1 of 2 9 of 10 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, calling him one of the best light heavyweights. He thinks Ankalaev will slow the pace and fight his fight. He notes Johnny Walker's danger if he makes it ugly, but expects Ankalaev to earn a title shot. He considers Ankalaev a safe bet.

"I think it's literally that simple pickwise I'm going to go with ankalia here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision, though he expects a boring fight. He notes that Ankalaev has good wrestling, as seen against Jan Blachowicz, and that Johnny Walker struggled on the ground against Nikita Krylov. Brady believes Ankalaev will mix in takedowns, control Walker, and win a dull decision.

decision
"I'm going to take ink live to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev, emphasizing that he should use his wrestling to neutralize Walker. He notes that Ankalaev has excellent wrestling and ground control, and that Walker is inconsistent and can be taken down. Cody believes that even if Ankalaev fights to his opponent's level, he should edge out a decision or get a finish. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor favoring Ankalaev in a close fight.

"I think Ankalaev is goat I think he is God I think he's got all the tools and these are the kind of lines that I overplay the guy and I lose a bunch of money but I'm still going …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, acknowledging Ankalaev's superior technical skills and experience but expressing concern that he sometimes fights down to his competition. He notes Ankalaev's vulnerabilities, such as being dropped by Thiago Santos and leg kicks from Jan Błachowicz, and thinks Johnny Walker's leg kick game plan could be effective. However, he believes Ankalaev is on a different level and should win if he is aggressive, but he is not confident enough to bet at -350.

Ankalaev minus 350, Walker plus 285; mentions possibility of Walker's leg kicks and Ankalaev's inconsistency
"I do have to favor aniv I think that you know he was this close to winning the Bell... I just do think Mago Med's on a different level."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev is one of the most complete fighters at 205 lbs, with high-level striking and wrestling. He can mix in takedowns to wear on Walker's cardio and slow him down. Walker is explosive but when unable to set the pace, he slows down and gives up positions. Expects Ankalaev to win a decision and earn another title shot.

"I fully expect kive to just go out there and do what he does best get the better strikes off when he needs to get the better takedowns uh off when he needs to and I just expect him to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev but is hesitant, noting that Ankalaev often fights to the level of his competition and has had close fights with lesser opponents. He worries that Ankalaev may not use his wrestling early and could get into a striking match where Walker's reach is an advantage. However, Paul believes Ankalaev's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi location give him the edge in a close decision.

Walker inside the distance (+425) as a sprinkle
"I think it's dogger pass just on the pure fact that I don't know Ankalaev is going to come right out of the gate and shoot for takedowns right out of the gate"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as a big underdog, citing a feeling that Walker will finish Ankalaev in a weird way. He notes Walker's 7-inch reach advantage and wild style that Ankalaev hasn't faced recently. He recalls Ankalaev being dropped by Thiago Santos and thinks Walker's takedown defense is underrated. He believes Ankalaev doesn't use his grappling unless losing and that Walker's momentum and size will be key.

Walker is a massive underdog; mentions 'I'm taking it The Underdogs that I like'
"I'm going Johnny Walker over maged analay I've got a feeling that he is going to finish magamed an kayv in a weird way"
LOSS vs Jan Błachowicz
Draw (split) (48–47, 46–48, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 55 of 117 47% 79 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 78 of 184 42% 191 of 312 2 of 10 20% 0 0 11:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 37 35% 23 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 17 of 34 50% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 48 37% 40 of 70 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:26
4 Jan Błachowicz 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 10 of 19 52% 55 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:32
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 0 of 2 0% 13 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Magomed Ankalaev 0 18 of 37 48% 54 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 55 of 117 47% 19 of 71 11 of 17 25 of 29 50 of 109 5 of 7 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 78 of 184 42% 49 of 139 19 of 33 10 of 12 50 of 134 6 of 8 22 of 42
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 14 of 35 40% 3 of 20 4 of 8 7 of 7 14 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 43 44% 10 of 28 7 of 12 2 of 3 19 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 23 of 43 53% 10 of 27 3 of 4 10 of 12 18 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 37 35% 7 of 24 2 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jan Błachowicz 17 of 34 50% 5 of 19 4 of 5 8 of 10 17 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 48 37% 10 of 37 6 of 9 2 of 2 16 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 1
4 Jan Błachowicz 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Magomed Ankalaev 10 of 19 52% 4 of 13 4 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 8 4 of 5 5 of 6
5 Jan Błachowicz 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1
Magomed Ankalaev 18 of 37 48% 18 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 35
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-280), Blachowicz (+235)

Round 1
In this headliner, the vacant light heavyweight strap is on the line, as champ Jiri Prochazka surrendered it due to a severe shoulder injury. Once expecting to fight three rounds tonight, ex-titleholder Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC) and the streaking Dagestani wrestle-kickboxer Ankalaev (17-1, 9-1 UFC) are now going for five rounds and 10ish pounds of gold. While they are both touted for knockout power, they each post exactly nine knockouts in their respective careers, which account for 31% of the Polish fighter’s victories compared to 53% for the Russian. Whether it all ends by knockout, submission, decision or something else, referee Marc Goddard draws the final charge for this championship contest. The 205-pound challengers – this is a vacant title – stoically refuse to touch gloves to seal the cage around them, and it’s on with the show. Blachowicz moves to the middle of the cage to commence the match, and he backs off when Ankalaev throws a right hand at him. Blachowicz kicks the low calf, and he swats away a jab. Blachowicz sits down on another low kick, and he absorbs a front kick to the breadbasket for his work. Ankalaev jabs at the body, and Blachowicz pursues another calf kick. Ankalaev just misses with a left hand over the top, and he catches Blachowicz with a right hand as the Polish fighter comes at him. Ankalaev measures out with a right hook, and he scoots away before Blachowicz can plunk him with a haymaker. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he backs away when Ankalaev bears down on him with a string of punches. The inside kick from Blachowicz irritates his opponent, and he connects with a right hand over the top that bounces off the forehead. The light heavyweights trade in the pocket, and Blachowicz slides back to rip a kick to the body. Ankalaev fires off a head kick after a lull in the action, but this careens off the guard to little effect. When the Russian tries to give chase, Blachowicz backpedals and evades the blows. Blachowicz sinks in another body kick, and Ankalaev counters him and pushes the ex-champ back with a front kick. The front kick from Ankalaev may be his best weapon, as he gets Blachowicz’ attention every time he lands it. Ankalaev barely ducks a left hook on his way forward, and he slaps a body kick home. Ankalaev checks a low kick, and the two tentatively walk one another down until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 2
The second round opens with a far fiercer exchange, as Blachowicz loads up on punches that miss while Ankalaev chambers and fires off a head kick that skims off the dome. Blachowicz has second thoughts about blitzing, and settles down on a calf kick again. Blachowicz scores a right hand over the top, and he sneaks a left hook around the guard. The Russian sneaks up another high kick, but this too is guarded. The two light heavyweights swing and miss with their kicks, and Ankalaev wings two punches that breeze past the intended target. Blachowicz continues to target the low calf of his adversary, and they clash shins at the same time when kicking. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he darts forward with an uppercut to redden the face of the Russian. Ankalaev loads up on a big right hand, but his straight left is far more accurate. Blachowicz gets in sweeping kick to the shin, and this causes a stumble from Ankalaev, who is wearing it. Blachowicz blasts his man with another kick, and Ankalaev falls over briefly before charging forward, Blachowicz whips a kick to the side, and Ankalaev catches it and pushes forward for a possible takedown. Blachowicz tees off with his leg in the air, keeping his balance and belting Ankalaev with unanswered fists. When Ankalaev releases it and backs away, he changes stances. This prompts Blachowicz to attack the newly front calf, and this takes the sting out of an overhand right from the Russian. Blachowicz does not slow down pounding on the calf, and Ankalaev charges for a takedown. He does not get it before the round ends. and he limps back to his corner in serious pain.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 3
Ankalaev races forward to attack in the third round, and after one landed punch, Blachowicz wrecks his leg once more. Ankalaev wobbles and changes his stance to orthodox, so Blachowicz kicks that other leg. Ankalaev strafes from left to right, pushing out a front kick but getting pushed away from a body kick. Like a lumberjack felling a mighty oak, Blachowicz continues chopping down any leg he can find, and each strike has an appreciable effect. Playing through the pain, Ankalaev wings a huge overhand right that grazes the side of the head, and he rushes forward to throw bombs. No longer willing to sit and get potshotted, Ankalaev steps in to unload with two hooks that Blachowicz eats like pierogis. The Russian continues pressuring forward, but Blachowicz greets him with two leg kicks that nearly down Ankalaev. Ankalaev hops back and considers holding his left leg in the air, only to bite down on his mouthpiece and sling leather. When the blows largely get blocked, he sprints forward for a failed takedown. Blachowicz’ takedown defense holds up and he manages to escape, as Ankalaev kicks him in the chest. Ankalaev eats one more calf kick and walks the former champ down, throwing kicks with both lets. A knee from Ankalaev comes up in the clinch, and Blachowicz groans. Goddard recognizes this and halts the action, as Blachowicz goes to a neutral corner to try to shake it out and adjust his neoprene ankle sleeves. When they resume, Ankalaev re-engages closely to not let Blachowicz kick him again, ending up in the clinch. Ankalaev lifts up a single and dumps Blachowicz to the canvas with 10 seconds to spare, and he gets in two elbows before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Ankalaev’s legs may be swollen and welted, but he is good to go. The Russian sprints forward with a surge of adrenaline to swing hammers, and he punches his way into a single-leg entry. Blachowicz meets him on the way forward with an uppercut, and he absorbs a knee to the body when Ankalaev clinches him up. Ankalaev keeps tightly pressed on his man while Blachowicz attempts to escape, and they trade knees on the inside. Ankalaev gets short knees off on the inside, thumping up the body of the former champ. Blachowicz bursts to get away, but Ankalaev races ahead and sweeps him off his feet. Ankalaev lands in the guard of his foe, which closes around his waist, but he does not mind as he punches Blachowicz in the face from this position. Ankalaev cannot get enough space to do much damage from his short shots, but he does take the back when Blachowicz turns. Ankalaev considers attempting his first submission in the form of a rear-naked choke, but settles to drum up punches on the side of the head. Blachowicz returns to a knee, and Ankalaev wrestles him right back down. Ankalaev drops down the occasional left hand while he keeps a leg trapped, sitting comfortably in half guard with Blachowicz pinned to his back. Ankalaev grinds until he finds a way to posture up, and then he stands to rain down a few power punches. The round ends before any serious damage comes from this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev

Round 5
There is a double glove touch and a hug to start off the last round, and Ankalaev shocks his foe shortly after the embrace with a punch salvo. Ankalaev hurts Blachowicz with a barrage of blows, but his real purpose is to put Blachowicz on his back. The former champ tumbles to his back, and Ankalaev happily jumps on top to pick up where he left off. The crowd showers them with boos as they slow down considerably, with Ankalaev holding on from top position while Blachowicz looks for a low-percentage kimura sweep. Ankalaev easily wriggles his arm out, and he takes an arm away and starts pounding on Blachowicz with left hands. Blachowicz responds with no-look elbows, but there is no steam on them as Ankalaev continues to pound on the downed Polish fighter. Ankalaev hammers with punches and elbows, and a few get through as Blachowicz has his right arm trapped. Ankalaev continues to batter Blachowicz, whose eye is busted open from the strikes, and Blachowicz groans loudly either from frustration, injury or exertion. Ankalaev allows his foe to turn to his back so that he can smack him with left hands, and Goddard tells Ankalaev to stay busy. Ankalaev answers with a number of short elbows, and Jan is stuck on his back taking non-fight-ending punishment. Ankalaev continues his methodical ground-and-pound breakdown, and Blachowicz sits up in hopes of break this up. Ankalaev grinds right to the bitter end, and the light heavyweights have left their grueling match in the hands of the judges. They conclude a night that started strong and fell flat in the marquee attractions.
When the scorecards are read, the crowd is baffled and quite upset. The first scorecard went to Blachowicz by a 48-47 tally, the second read 48-46 for Ankalaev, and the third ended up as a 47-47 for a remarkable split draw. The UFC light heavyweight throne remains vacant, and Blachowicz admits in his post-fight interview that he feels Ankalaev won the fight. When Ankalaev speaks, he demands his title in belief that he should have been the victor, and the ultra-honorable Blachowicz interrupts him to again say that the UFC should give the belt to Ankalaev. An apoplectic Ankalaev declares in his post-fight interview that he may not fight in the UFC again, because the judges took the win away from him. With this event in the books, the UFC has one more this year. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Ankalaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (49-46 Ankalaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Blachowicz)

The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz is Ruled a Split Draw (47-48, 48-46, 47-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.

"ankalayev is absolutely the pick he is incredible value at minus 255."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.

Ankalaev wins by decision; fight goes to decision
"I think ankle live takes behovich down and once he does that's probably going to be the round there... I like ankle I had to get it done and to get it done by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I got Uncle life winning I don't think the money Line's terrible but if I was to try to chase a prop I got a feeling he's …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jan Błachowicz

Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.

Odds: Błachowicz opened +170, now +224; Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"So I'm taking the flyer on block of it here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.

Bet 2 units on Ankalaev moneyline at -250. Expects decision win, possibly 4-1 rounds.
"I bet on magomed and Khalif... I played magomed minus 250 I played him to win two units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.

lock of the week play at -255
"I personally bet him as my Lachlan I play earlier this week at minus 255. I thought that was a great line because I think he's just that much better than blowovich"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.

Ankalaev inside the distance (slight plus money)
"I think ankle live is better really in all facets of the game... I think he wins minus 255 as a favorite I don't hate it I don't love it I'll be picking him maybe I'll end up with him …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.

"I'm gonna be going with yamla no magamed and Goliath winning this one options win fights"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.

Odds: Ankalaev opened -200, now -278.
"I'll take uncle live just to be patient enough and powerful enough and consistent enough to take advantage of his opportunities when he gets some out of the fight."
WIN vs Anthony Smith
TKO (punches) R2 3:09 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 46 of 79 58% 64 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:26
Anthony Smith 0 18 of 36 50% 21 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 20 of 41 48% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Anthony Smith 0 13 of 23 56% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 0 26 of 38 68% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:51
Anthony Smith 0 5 of 13 38% 5 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 46 of 79 58% 31 of 60 6 of 9 9 of 10 23 of 46 1 of 1 22 of 32
Anthony Smith 18 of 36 50% 6 of 21 5 of 8 7 of 7 17 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 20 of 41 48% 9 of 26 3 of 6 8 of 9 19 of 40 0 of 0 1 of 1
Anthony Smith 13 of 23 56% 3 of 11 4 of 6 6 of 6 12 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Magomed Ankalaev 26 of 38 68% 22 of 34 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 31
Anthony Smith 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He acknowledges Ankalaev's low volume but praises his power and defensive soundness. He doubts Smith can take Ankalaev down and notes Smith is hittable. He expects Ankalaev to win comfortably but not look like a -600 favorite unless he finishes early.

"i like anka live here to win i like him to win by i'll say decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights harder than necessary. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of not using his wrestling enough, standing with opponents and getting clipped. He thinks if Ankalaev sticks to takedowns, he wins easily, but he's not sure he will. He calls it a potential lock but worries about Ankalaev's decision-making. He also notes that Smith is crafty and has good cardio.

"i want to say this is my lock of the card... but like i don't know if it is man like i'm gonna play it i'll take it collide but like i think this is greasier than it needs to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel picks Ankalaev to win, but notes the fight depends on Smith's approach. If Smith is content to survive, it will be a boring decision for Ankalaev. If Smith pushes the pace, it could be exciting with a finish on either side. He acknowledges Ankalaev's counter-striking style and power, but says Smith needs to take risks to win. He expects Ankalaev to piece Smith apart over three rounds if Smith doesn't engage.

"I'm gonna pick Ankalaev to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

Preet picks Ankalaev by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting Ankalaev to slow the fight with clinch and takedowns, grinding out Smith. He notes Ankalaev's ability to make adjustments, as seen against Krylov, and that Smith's pressure could make it exciting but ultimately Ankalaev's discipline wins. He avoids the moneyline at -560.

over 2.5 rounds
"give me uncle live on collab by decision over two and a half is probably the bet i would go with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, noting that he is the best guy at 205 pounds and has an easy path to victory by taking Smith down repeatedly. He acknowledges that Ankalaev sometimes makes fights harder by standing, but he expects him to win. He mentions that Smith's takedown defense has always been an issue and that Ankalaev should stick to the game plan. He also notes that the -600 price is wide but that's the price you have to pay.

"i think he wins probably 30 27 maybe he gets him out of there but like it's angle eye is a tough nut to crack"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Magomed Ankalaev

The MMA Guru predicts Magomed Ankalaev wins by 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects a lackluster fight where Smith may win the first round but then shells up as Ankalaev chops the legs, lands ground-and-pound, and controls the later rounds. The Guru notes Ankalaev's patience and Smith's inability to create offense.

decision
"i think magamet anglia is going to win the fight as it goes on"
Marcin Prachnio - Fight History
LOSS vs Jimmy Crute
Submission R1 4:42 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jimmy Crute 0 5 of 18 27% 11 of 27 3 of 6 50% 2 0 2:18
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 36 58% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jimmy Crute 0 5 of 18 27% 11 of 27 3 of 6 50% 2 0 2:18
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 36 58% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jimmy Crute 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 36 58% 7 of 21 9 of 10 5 of 5 13 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jimmy Crute 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 36 58% 7 of 21 9 of 10 5 of 5 13 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Angelo picks Jimmy Crute despite his long winless streak, because Marcin Prachnio has poor ground game and Crute is a good wrestler. He notes Crute's recent retirement and poor mindset, but believes the gap on the ground is enough for Crute to win. He is hesitant due to Crute's mental state.

"I'm going to pick Jimmy here. The gap on the ground is bigger than the gap on the feet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Big Brady believes Jimmy Crute should dominate Marcin Prachnio, citing Crute's easier UFC fight to date. He notes Prachnio's poor cardio, no ground game, and chin issues. He predicts Crute wins by first-round submission, though he acknowledges Crute's past bad fight IQ.

Crute by first round submission
"I think Croo is going to win this fight. I'll take Croo to win this fight by first round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jimmy Crute

Connor picks Crute hesitantly, expecting him to win an early round with aggression before both fighters fade. He notes that Prachnio has become a slow-paced fighter who can nullify early pressure, but Crute's power could secure a round. However, he acknowledges Crute's terrible cardio and tendency to implode.

Odds: Crute opened -300, still -300; Prachnio opened +250, still +250. Connor says the odds make no sense and the fight should be a coin flip.
"I'll go against you and pick Crute just in the like in a three round fight where nobody gets anything done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jimmy Crute

The host acknowledges Crute is flaky and inconsistent, and Prachnio is capable of pulling off the upset. However, he thinks Crute will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot, and follow up with a submission. The pick is hesitant due to Crute's inconsistency.

submission
"I think Groot will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot on Prao to drop him and then follow up with the submission to get the victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Jimmy Crute, despite some hesitation. He criticizes Crute's footwork, saying he fights like he's stepping on Legos, and notes that Crute has problems with low kicks, as seen against Anthony Smith. Prachnio is described as a slick striker with good low kicks, and the Guru believes he will not get outmuscled on the ground. However, he acknowledges the possibility of Crute submitting him, but ultimately goes with Prachnio based on striking superiority.

"I'm going with Martin Patchio, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Zane picks Prachnio, countering that Crute's desperation and poor cardio will lead to a flameout. He notes that Prachnio has not been finished early recently and can nullify early pressure, while Crute's tendency to burn out quickly is a major liability.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"Jimmy Crute doesn't need to have anything done to him as much impact to just flam out."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:12 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Modestas Bukauskas 0 38 of 76 50% 56 of 101 2 of 2 100% 1 0 5:31
Marcin Prachnio 0 70 of 139 50% 120 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Modestas Bukauskas 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Marcin Prachnio 0 26 of 61 42% 35 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Modestas Bukauskas 0 17 of 31 54% 21 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:19
Marcin Prachnio 0 34 of 58 58% 67 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Modestas Bukauskas 0 2 of 6 33% 16 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:48
Marcin Prachnio 0 10 of 20 50% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Modestas Bukauskas 38 of 76 50% 28 of 64 7 of 9 3 of 3 29 of 62 3 of 7 6 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 70 of 139 50% 19 of 74 31 of 44 20 of 21 58 of 123 12 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Modestas Bukauskas 19 of 39 48% 12 of 31 5 of 6 2 of 2 18 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0
Marcin Prachnio 26 of 61 42% 2 of 29 10 of 17 14 of 15 25 of 59 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Modestas Bukauskas 17 of 31 54% 14 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 22 2 of 4 4 of 5
Marcin Prachnio 34 of 58 58% 8 of 26 20 of 26 6 of 6 23 of 44 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Modestas Bukauskas 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Marcin Prachnio 10 of 20 50% 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Marcin Prachnio
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-155), Prachnio (+130)

Round 1
When the dust settles between these light heavyweights, one of them will reach the .500 mark on their UFC ledger while the other will fall two wins beneath it. Bukauskas (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is trying to build up his resume on his second stint with the promotion, while Prachnio (17-7, 4-5 UFC) wants to disappoint home fans by beating the fighter training in England. With similar finish rates of 73% and 71%, respectively, they might need to involve referee Marc Goddard before the final horn. The 205ers touch ‘em up, and Prachnio introduces himself with a trio of leg kicks. Bukauskas swings back with a looping right hand, but his foe is out of range. Prachnio sweeps the leg, or at least tries to, but his second kick nearly buckles Bukauskas’ knee on the inside. Bukauskas times a hard left hand when Prachnio sells out on a low kick, and he leans back to watch a side kick to the face come up short. Prachnio continues working the front leg no matter the stance, and he pushes off to disallow Bukauskas from reaching him with two hooks. Bukauskas sits down on a left hand, getting Prachnio’s attention, and Prachnio gathers himself and keeps on chopping down the tree. Bukauskas loops a left around the guard, and he kicks a ducking Prachnio in the face. They clash together, and Prachnio stumbles before recovering. Prachnio tries to land a spinning wheel kick that ends up bouncing off the guard, and he peppers the front leg and thigh with kicks. Prachnio winds up and drills Bukauskas with a massive right hand, and Bukauskas eats it like a bowl of kugelis. Prachnio races forward throwing a kick, and Bukauskas grabs hold of him and turns him to the fencing. On the break, the Lithuanian dings Prachnio with a spinning elbow, but Prachnio appears unconcerned. Bukauskas races forward throwing hands, and a right hand careens off the temple and wobbles Prachnio. Bukauskas unleashes a salvo of vicious punches, but Prachnio is able to rebound off the fenced and get his footing. Prachnio chips at the front leg, and he lumbers forward throwing inaccurate punches. Bukauskas switches stances frequently, and he beans Prachnio with a huge right hand. Prachnio goes after another spinning wheel kick that is a long way away, and Bukauskas stays composed until he throws a bit too hard, and gets caught with a counter on the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 2
The two touch gloves and go right into a brawl, winging power hooks with no concern of defense. They backpedal momentarily, and Prachnio scores a leg kick and connects with an overhand right. Prachnio kicks low a few times before going high, and Bukauskas blocks the head kick but eats a body kick that follows. Prachnio gets into range and is met with a pair of hooks, and he takes a few steps back to kick the front leg. Prachnio lunges and gets countered, but he ends with a body kick. The low kicks of the Polish fighter are starting to compromise Bukauskas, but Prachnio decides to throw caution to the wind and whiff with a comical windmilling right hand that is feet off the mark. Prachnio takes a moment to stop fighting so recklessly, and Bukauskas uses the moment to belt Prachnio with a handful of punches that rock Prachnio. In the ensuing melee, Bukauskas absorbs a flush head kick in close range and gets his bell rung, and he has no choice but to back off as he was in trouble too. Both fighters wobbled and hurt, they end up clinching, with Bukauskas pressing Prachnio against the wire. Bukauskas drops to his knees for a takedown, and Prachnio stands him up and knees him in the gut to break. Prachnio doubles up on the knee when he gets in close, and Bukauskas backs off and smacks him with a left hand. A body lock takedown from Bukauskas succeeds in planting Prachnio on his back, and Prachnio grabs hold of the fence for several seconds and does not let it go as Goddard watches on without saying anything. Bukauskas moves to half guard, and Prachnio lets go so he can block his face but ultimately takes several elbows off the dome. Bukauskas walks right into side control and threatens briefly with a kimura, but lets it go so he can knee Prachnio in the side and elbow him as well. Prachnio briefly drags Bukauskas back to his guard, but Bukauskas easily gest back to half guard. Prachnio wall-walks to get back up, and they dirty box in the clinch until the violent round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prachnio
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas

Round 3
Gloves are touched, and fists immediately fly. Prachnio elects to go out swinging, and he pummels the Lithuanian with a flurry of fierce punches that knock him back to the fencing. Bukauskas takes advantage of Prachnio’s momentum and hits a body lock trip to redeposit Prachnio flat on his back. Bukauskas moves to half guard to control his opponent, and he lands short shots to stay busy. Goddard warns Prachnio for punches that wrap around to the back of the head, and Bukauskas ignores them while maintaining controlling posture. Goddard asks for more work, and Bukauskas keeps on slowly working from above while not attempting many fight-ending strikes.
Bukauskas sits up to drive two elbows home before leaning down with an arm-triangle choke position. Bukauskas lowers himself flat to smother his opponent while clutching the submission grip tight, and he is on the wrong side but does not seem to care. Bukauskas remains flat and crushes down on his adversary, and even out of position he squeezes with all his might. Prachnio cannot hang on any longer, and he taps out.
Prachnio thinks about standing up after the fight's conclusion, but he does not have the energy to do it. Meanwhile, the victorious Lithuanian hits a back flip to show he still has something left in the tank.

The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Marcin Prachnio R3 3:12 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his youth and well-roundedness. He notes that Prachnio has power but is chinny and can be knockout or bust. Angelo expects Bukauskas to win and hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet on.

hoping for over 1.5 rounds line
"mcus should win he's going to be the pick here he's much younger he's more well-rounded"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Marcin Prachnio, citing his volume striking and improved cardio. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas has low output and has looked unimpressive in his UFC return, with close fights against lower-level competition. Cody believes Prachnio's pressure and output will overwhelm Bukauskas, and that he can win by decision or even knockout.

"I'm just GNA ride up on prne out here can't make you can't have any real type of Faith but at some point you got to bite the bullet and take some people that your gut tells you to go …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Daniel thinks Marcin Prachnio has a higher work rate and will outwork Modestas Bukauskas. He notes both have poor chins but Prachnio pushes a higher pace. He picks the underdog Prachnio.

"just give me the guy with the higher work rate and that's uh Marine prel so and he's the underdog so I'll pick him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul leans towards Prachnio, noting that Bukauskas has low volume and no real power. He believes Prachnio's volume advantage (5.61 significant strikes per minute vs 3.28) will be key, and that the fight likely goes to a decision where Prachnio edges it. However, he is not fully confident and may pass on betting.

"I guess Marine will be the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog, citing Prachnio's better technical striking and leg-kicking ability. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas lacks finishing potential and a strong grappling game, often letting fights go to split decisions. Prachnio is known for chewing up opponents' legs, and Bukauskas has a history of leg injuries. The Guru also questions Bukauskas's training camp with heavyweights, suggesting it may not be ideal for this matchup.

"I can't help but pick a Marchin prao Underdog you guys know how I feel about Marchin prao being an underdog which he normally is in every one of his fights um I'm going to pick him to win this …"
WIN vs Devin Clark
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Prachnio 0 53 of 127 41% 53 of 127 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
Devin Clark 0 101 of 189 53% 112 of 204 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Prachnio 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Devin Clark 0 23 of 47 48% 27 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Marcin Prachnio 0 19 of 36 52% 19 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Devin Clark 0 30 of 60 50% 32 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Marcin Prachnio 0 23 of 62 37% 23 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Devin Clark 0 48 of 82 58% 53 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Prachnio 53 of 127 41% 36 of 106 13 of 16 4 of 5 49 of 120 4 of 7 0 of 0
Devin Clark 101 of 189 53% 42 of 113 37 of 51 22 of 25 78 of 156 23 of 33 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Prachnio 11 of 29 37% 7 of 24 2 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
Devin Clark 23 of 47 48% 8 of 28 7 of 9 8 of 10 21 of 42 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marcin Prachnio 19 of 36 52% 13 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0
Devin Clark 30 of 60 50% 9 of 33 9 of 15 12 of 12 26 of 52 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Marcin Prachnio 23 of 62 37% 16 of 53 6 of 7 1 of 2 21 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
Devin Clark 48 of 82 58% 25 of 52 21 of 27 2 of 3 31 of 62 17 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Devin Clark

Angelo believes Devin Clark can pressure forward, avoid Prachnio's power, get takedowns, and grind out a win. He notes Clark's solid grappling and footwork, and that Prachnio has a questionable chin. He thinks Clark should win, but the -190 odds are a bit rich; he would prefer Clark at -150. He will monitor the line movement.

"Devin Clark should win this fight pretty confident in him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Devin Clark

Big Brady hesitantly picks Devin Clark to win by decision. He notes that Clark has a clear path to victory through wrestling, as Prachnio has terrible takedown defense and ground game. However, he is not confident because Clark has poor cardio and has been finished often, and Prachnio's fights have had weird results.

"I'm going to pick him here just because I feel like he has such a clear path to Victory with the wrestling"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Prachnio as a dog, noting Clark's cardio issues and tendency to fade. Prachnio has power and has shown he can survive early takedowns and come back. Cody thinks if Clark doesn't finish early, Prachnio can knock him out in the later rounds. He suggests a prop on Prachnio by KO in round 3 at long odds.

Prachnio by KO round 3 (+2400)
"prne round three 20 to one I mean he's probably gonna I don't think he has any submission skills whatsoever so what's him by KO round three 24 24 that would be that would be the move"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Devin Clark

Clark should be able to use his clinch and grappling to push Prachnio against the cage and drag him to the mat. Prachnio has questionable takedown defense and durability. However, Clark is inconsistent and has a history of fumbling fights he's winning. The line at -210 is too wide for someone as flimsy as Clark, but he should still win by decision.

"I'll still take him to win this fight I still think he wins by decision but it is a closer fight in my opinion than the odds indicate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul also picks Prachnio, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes Clark's wrestling advantage but thinks Prachnio can survive and find a knockout. Paul mentions that Clark has been knocked out before and that Prachnio has power. He is tempted by the dog price and the prop.

Prachnio by KO round 3
"I'm with you pretty clear dogger pass and I mean if you're telling me to to be sprinkling plus 2400s I mean yeah let's go baby"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog after initially leaning toward Devin Clark. He notes that Clark has taken a lot of damage and lacks one-punch KO power or submission threat. He believes Prachnio can out-damage Clark on the feet with better striking skill. He acknowledges the pick is risky but thinks Prachnio is a lot better than Clark in terms of before a finish.

"I'm going to go marching Prat as an underdog... I think prano can outdamage him on the feet with a better striking skill."
LOSS vs Vitor Petrino
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:42 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 44 of 81 54% 72 of 111 4 of 6 66% 2 0 8:39
Marcin Prachnio 0 55 of 88 62% 147 of 185 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 16 of 33 48% 20 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Marcin Prachnio 0 32 of 44 72% 66 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Vitor Petrino 0 11 of 15 73% 30 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:38
Marcin Prachnio 0 2 of 5 40% 56 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 17 of 33 51% 22 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:40
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 39 53% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 44 of 81 54% 32 of 68 9 of 10 3 of 3 24 of 58 1 of 1 19 of 22
Marcin Prachnio 55 of 88 62% 25 of 54 21 of 25 9 of 9 41 of 73 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 16 of 33 48% 9 of 26 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 32 of 44 72% 12 of 23 14 of 15 6 of 6 21 of 32 11 of 12 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 11 of 15 73% 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 11
Marcin Prachnio 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 17 of 33 51% 13 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 39 53% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 3 18 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.

No bets yet, waiting for props
"Vitor Petrino is the pick no bets yet but we'll see when these props drop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.

first round knockout
"I'll say he knocks him out on the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.

Petrino by KO/TKO, under 1.5 rounds
"Petrino will be the pick but minus 300 there's really nothing there for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I just think he's too violent for Prochnio."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.

"I think Vitor is going to be the guy that goes back and exposes that chin of Marcin pratch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.

Vitor Petrino wins by KO in round 1; Vitor Petrino inside the distance
"I think petrino's gonna Land one on pretnia's chin and I think it's going to be night night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.

round 1 knockout
"give me Vitor Petrino by knockout I actually think it comes pretty early as well let's call it round one."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.

Petrino by KO/TKO or decision
"I think Petrino mixes in those takedowns if he doesn't melt him with a big right hand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go with him getting this one done by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.

Petrino opened at -263, currently -278; Prachnio opened at +199, currently +238. Zane says odds should not get wider.
"I got to pick a guy like Patrino light heavyweight. It's just the right division for him for that kind of fight."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Prachnio 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
William Knight 0 79 of 144 54% 79 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Prachnio 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
William Knight 0 26 of 48 54% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcin Prachnio 0 1 of 10 10% 1 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
William Knight 0 29 of 49 59% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Prachnio 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
William Knight 0 24 of 47 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Prachnio 8 of 33 24% 0 of 13 2 of 8 6 of 12 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 79 of 144 54% 9 of 36 7 of 25 63 of 83 79 of 144 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Prachnio 3 of 10 30% 0 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 4 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 26 of 48 54% 1 of 10 3 of 11 22 of 27 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marcin Prachnio 1 of 10 10% 0 of 5 0 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 29 of 49 59% 5 of 12 2 of 8 22 of 29 29 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marcin Prachnio 4 of 13 30% 0 of 5 0 of 2 4 of 6 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
William Knight 24 of 47 51% 3 of 14 2 of 6 19 of 27 24 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Angelo has a one-unit bet on Prachnio but expresses buyer's remorse. He thinks Prachnio is the better technical fighter with a karate background, but his chin is a concern. Angelo notes William Knight is a powerful, fast bodybuilder-type who can wrestle, but is inconsistent and missed weight by 12 pounds. He believes Prachnio should win if he doesn't get caught, but admits the bet is risky.

One-unit moneyline bet on Prachnio. Also mentions William Knight by KO +185 and Prachnio by KO +250, and Knight by submission +1200.
"I got one unit on marcine prach now... it is the riskiest conservative Ange."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
William Knight

Big Brady favors Knight because of his wrestling path, as Prachnio has poor takedown defense (around 50%) and terrible cardio, gassing out by six minutes in his last fight. He thinks Knight can take him down, wear on him, and get a second-round knockout. He notes that both have durability issues, but Knight's power and cardio give him the edge.

Knight by KO, round 2
"I gotta go William not here and the reason being I think he has a path to Victory here and that path to Victory he's going to be to wrestle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Prachnio, noting William Knight has struggled with weight cuts and is now moving back to 205 after a failed heavyweight stint. He details Knight's history of botched weight cuts and poor performances when depleted. He says Prachnio has volume and cardio advantages, and even if Knight gets takedowns, he won't do enough with them. He calls it an even money fight but likes Prachnio as the betting underdog.

Cody notes Prachnio is technically the betting underdog. He mentions Knight's weight issues: came in at 218 for a 205 fight, then 251 at heavyweight.
"It's pretty much an even money fight but like ever so slightly marcine praknow is technically the betting Underdog and so uh talker pass baby sign me up with Marcin pracneo."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Knight's counter punching is technically poor and he cannot put together combinations. Prachnio will get hurt but is unlikely to be finished. Knight's lack of follow-up means Prachnio can recover and win rounds.

"Yeah, we're agreed picking Prochno it just always also like... Light heavyweight is just so that division. Lots of power, not a lot of durability."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
William Knight

Jacob picks William Knight, citing his explosiveness and power as a perfect matchup against Prachnio's karate style. He thinks once Knight starts landing, Prachnio will shell up against the fence and get finished. Jacob notes Knight's aggression and ability to pounce, and believes Prachnio's chin is weak. He also mentions the under 1.5 rounds feels like a trap but thinks Knight will get the KO.

"I'm gonna go William Knight in this match I think it's a good matchup for his explosiveness."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Prachnio's kick-heavy, movement-based style should keep him safe from Knight's early power. Knight fades after round one and has poor cardio. Prachnio can use his range and footwork to win a decision, though his chin is a concern. Live betting after round one is suggested.

over 1.5 rounds; Prachnio wins by decision
"I like the over one and a half as well... I think that ultimately we'll see Prachnio... picking up a decision Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul picks Prachnio, saying he struggles to get to William Knight. He notes Knight's volume isn't there and he's not sure about his grappling. He says Prachnio should box him up at range with volume as long as he stays upright. He acknowledges Knight can land a bomb, but thinks more often than not Prachnio wins. He says he's not sure if he'll bet it but is picking Prachnio.

Paul mentions the line moved from Prachnio being a slight favorite to money coming in on Knight. He says he'll take the ever-so-slight dog.
"I'll take the ever so slight dog and marcine pracneo just you know keep your chin in one piece."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
William Knight

The MMA Guru picks William Knight, but is undecided. He acknowledges Marcin Prachnio is not bad and beat Khalil Rountree, but notes Prachnio's chin is suspect, having been finished three times in his last six fights by KO. He believes Knight will find that chin and get a KO, either by dominant position or big shot on the feet, but emphasizes Knight must be aggressive.

KO
"I'm gonna go with William Knight Finding that chin at some point William Knight will find that chin and Martin pratch Neo's chin is not the best"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Zane picks Prachnio because he is a better striker and more determined than Knight. Knight has power but lacks form and follow-up, and he turns into a counter puncher when pressured. Prachnio takes available targets and will win rounds. Knight may hurt him but likely won't finish, and Prachnio's improved durability should see him through.

Prachnio opened -110, now -103; Knight opened -110, now -119. Zane says 'don't bet on this' and 'don't watch this card.'
"Yeah, we're agreed picking Prochno it just always also like... Light heavyweight is just so that division. Lots of power, not a lot of durability."
LOSS vs Philipe Lins
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Philipe Lins 0 74 of 117 63% 116 of 159 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:53
Marcin Prachnio 0 64 of 110 58% 96 of 142 4 of 11 36% 0 0 5:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Philipe Lins 0 30 of 42 71% 43 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Marcin Prachnio 0 14 of 27 51% 15 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:00
2 Philipe Lins 0 28 of 50 56% 46 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:14
Marcin Prachnio 0 33 of 49 67% 54 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
3 Philipe Lins 0 16 of 25 64% 27 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Marcin Prachnio 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 44 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Philipe Lins 74 of 117 63% 13 of 49 44 of 48 17 of 20 47 of 81 26 of 35 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 64 of 110 58% 36 of 79 20 of 22 8 of 9 52 of 96 9 of 10 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Philipe Lins 30 of 42 71% 4 of 11 14 of 16 12 of 15 23 of 33 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marcin Prachnio 14 of 27 51% 2 of 14 7 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Philipe Lins 28 of 50 56% 5 of 26 20 of 21 3 of 3 14 of 31 13 of 18 1 of 1
Marcin Prachnio 33 of 49 67% 25 of 40 8 of 9 0 of 0 27 of 42 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Philipe Lins 16 of 25 64% 4 of 12 10 of 11 2 of 2 10 of 17 6 of 8 0 of 0
Marcin Prachnio 17 of 34 50% 9 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 4 11 of 27 3 of 3 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Philipe Lins

Angelo likes Philipe Lins to win but is watching the scales closely because Lins is moving down from heavyweight. He notes Lins has legit power and a BJJ black belt, but prefers to trade. He mentions Prachnio has chin issues but an entire set of skills we haven't seen. He says if Lins looks good at 205 he will pick him and probably bet, but if he looks sucked out he will fade him.

Will bet on Lins if he looks good at weigh-ins; otherwise fade
"i actually like felipe linds to win this fight but i'm going to be watching the scales closely"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Big Brady picks Marcin Prachnio to win by knockout, citing his volume and recent improved performances. He notes that Philipe Lins has looked poor in the UFC and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he is concerned about Prachnio's chin and says it's hard to be confident. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Win by knockout, second round
"I will be going with proc new here... I'm actually going to take practice to win by knockout as well... second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Cody picks Prachnio, citing Lins' poor UFC performances and long layoff. He notes Prachnio's improved fight IQ and chin. He thinks Prachnio can win at range and avoid Lins' power. He mentions the 'don't let friends bet on guys that lost to Kelly Nunes' rule.

Prachnio inside the distance (+150 to +165)
"i like practice i like practical and i'm thinking that pragma might be able to get him outside inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Philipe Lins

The host picks Philipe Lins as his dog of the night at +110 (1 unit). He believes Lins is the much better striker with enough power to find Prachnio's chin and finish him. He notes concerns about Lins' recent inactivity, weight cut, and KO loss to Tanner Boser, which is why he only bets 1 unit despite a 70% win probability.

Also likes the prop 'fight will end via KO' at -135.
"the dog of the night i'm actually gonna go with felipe linds uh one unit at plus 110 i think his uh striking will be much better than martin praknels here and i think he'll be able to crack meow …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul agrees, noting Lins' inactivity and poor showings at 205. He thinks Prachnio's striking and improved defense will be enough. He mentions the Kelly Nunes rule and expects Prachnio to win.

"i think practio can win this fight at range stay out of trouble don't get clipped"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Philipe Lins, expressing concerns about Lins making weight and his inactivity. He notes Prachnio's technical striking and ability to make fights awkward, but acknowledges his suspect chin. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Prachnio, believing Lins will gas and that Prachnio's confidence from a two-fight win streak will carry him. He mentions Prachnio's win over Khalil Rountree as a quality victory.

"i'm gonna actually go with marcin prachnio here over felipe lin's felipe linz first of all i don't trust him to make weight safely"
TKO (body kick) R2 0:56 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Prachnio 1 59 of 92 64% 60 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ike Villanueva 0 34 of 79 43% 34 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Prachnio 0 48 of 79 60% 49 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 32 of 72 44% 32 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
2 Marcin Prachnio 1 11 of 13 84% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Ike Villanueva 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Prachnio 59 of 92 64% 23 of 52 15 of 19 21 of 21 55 of 86 4 of 6 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 34 of 79 43% 29 of 73 4 of 4 1 of 2 27 of 63 4 of 9 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Prachnio 48 of 79 60% 18 of 45 12 of 16 18 of 18 44 of 73 4 of 6 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 32 of 72 44% 29 of 68 2 of 2 1 of 2 25 of 56 4 of 9 3 of 7
2 Marcin Prachnio 11 of 13 84% 5 of 7 3 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 2 of 7 28% 0 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Angelo picks Ike Villanueva, citing his toughness, forward pressure, speed, and power. He notes that Prachnio's three first-round knockout losses raise chin questions. Angelo believes Villanueva is a solid underdog and likes the under on rounds as a prop.

under on rounds (2.5)
"i think villanueva gets this done i think he's in a great spot in this underdog spot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Big Brady picks Ike Villanueva to win by first round KO, calling it a clear dog pass. He notes Prachnio's weak chin (four KO losses) and poor striking defense, while Villanueva is a powerful brawler with 83% finish rate. He believes the smaller Apex cage favors Villanueva's pressure style, and that Prachnio's path to victory (staying on the outside) is unlikely. He thinks the line is off and Villanueva should be closer to even.

by KO, first round, line makes no sense
"i'm actually going to pick ikeville over here to get the knockout on proc neil"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Cody picks Villanueva as a dog, noting his power and that Prachnio's chin has been checked. He thinks Villanueva has a puncher's chance and that Prachnio's defensive liabilities make him vulnerable. However, he is not confident and says he won't bet it, but for PRP purposes he takes Villanueva. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds +146 (1 unit)
"i think villanova is a live underdog but i remember at the top of the show you said you made a little bit of money last week and i said if i was disciplined i could have made money but …"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Jacob picks Marcin Prachnio, calling the fight a coin flip and going with Prachnio because he thinks he has a little more power than Ike. He notes a weird stat that Prachnio has never had a fight end in the second round. Jacob is not very confident and suggests staying away from this fight.

"i actually think that francio wins this fight um just because you know i think it's a coin flip and i'd go with crash new i think he's just got a little bit more power uh than ike"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ike Villanueva

Villanueva is durable and has heavy hands. Prachnio has a vulnerable chin and relies on a kicking game to stay away from power. Villanueva will march forward, absorb kicks, and land a knockout punch. Prachnio's chin issues will be exposed. Villanueva is one of my favorite dogs on the card.

Villanueva by KO plus 275
"I truly think that villanueva will uh uh you know expose that and i think he'll be able to find that knockout punch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

Paul leans toward Prachnio based on his technical improvements in the last fight, but he is not betting him at -190. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and thinks the under 1.5 rounds is a better play. He acknowledges Villanueva's power but thinks Prachnio's volume could be key.

under 1.5 rounds +146 (1 unit)
"i'll lean towards practice but i'm not betting him as a minus 200 favorite this guy's chin has been checked far too many times i'd rather just bet the under in this spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Prachnio

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio by decision, expecting a boring fight where Prachnio keeps range and outpoints Villanueva. He acknowledges Prachnio's chin issues but believes Villanueva's chin is equally suspect. He criticizes Villanueva's UFC caliber and notes his win over Vinicius Moreira was unimpressive.

unanimous decision, 30-27
"i'm going to go with marcin prachnio here i think you'll get the job done by decision"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Prachnio 0 49 of 148 33% 50 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 102 of 216 47% 105 of 220 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Prachnio 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 30 of 54 55% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcin Prachnio 0 20 of 48 41% 21 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 32 of 70 45% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Prachnio 0 13 of 62 20% 13 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 40 of 92 43% 40 of 92 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Prachnio 49 of 148 33% 29 of 120 13 of 18 7 of 10 49 of 146 0 of 2 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 102 of 216 47% 33 of 131 29 of 39 40 of 46 100 of 211 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Prachnio 16 of 38 42% 5 of 26 6 of 6 5 of 6 16 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 30 of 54 55% 8 of 26 7 of 12 15 of 16 29 of 52 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marcin Prachnio 20 of 48 41% 14 of 39 4 of 6 2 of 3 20 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 32 of 70 45% 10 of 40 6 of 10 16 of 20 31 of 67 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Marcin Prachnio 13 of 62 20% 10 of 55 3 of 6 0 of 1 13 of 60 0 of 2 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 40 of 92 43% 15 of 65 16 of 17 9 of 10 40 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. confidently, citing Prachnio's poor striking defense and tendency to get knocked out in the first round (three times in UFC). He notes Rountree has finished five of eight wins in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout and likes the Rountree round one prop at +175.

round one knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"i think round tree round one knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Daniel Levi picks Khalil Rountree Jr. by first-round knockout, noting Prachnio has been knocked out in the first round in all three UFC fights. He believes Rountree's speed and striking improvements in Thailand will be too much for Prachnio, who is too slow and doesn't belong in the UFC.

Rountree by first-round knockout
"i got khalil roundtree junior to be a first round knockout shack"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Both fighters have sketchy chins and a high percentage of their fights ending under 1.5 rounds. Prachnio has diminishing durability and has been knocked out in his last three fights. Rountree has power and should be able to land a counter or follow-up shots. I expect a knockout from Rountree, likely in the first round. The under 1.5 rounds is a solid bet given the statistics and the matchup.

under 1.5 rounds (-170)
"I like the under one and a half here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by first-round TKO, calling Marcin Prachnio overmatched and past his prime. He notes Prachnio was brutally KO'd by Mike Rodriguez in his last fight and is taking a quick turnaround. He believes Rountree's striking will be too much, and he predicts a brutal finish via overhand right or similar shot. He expresses hope Rountree doesn't retire.

First-round TKO
"i'm gonna go with khalil roundtree jr getting it done by a brutal finish in the first round with like an overhand right"