UFC on Fox: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Jul 28, 2018 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 9"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Katlyn Cerminara
4.58 SLpM
34.0% Str. Acc.
4.48 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.31 TD Avg
15.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alexis Davis
4.63 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.45 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.95 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
34.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Katlyn Cerminara - Fight History
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 66 of 152 43% 99 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:52
Katlyn Cerminara 0 84 of 150 56% 122 of 189 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 22 of 32 68% 29 of 40 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:50
Katlyn Cerminara 0 31 of 48 64% 46 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Maycee Barber 0 24 of 56 42% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Katlyn Cerminara 0 22 of 48 45% 35 of 62 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:52
3 Maycee Barber 0 20 of 64 31% 30 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
Katlyn Cerminara 0 31 of 54 57% 41 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 66 of 152 43% 44 of 122 21 of 27 1 of 3 43 of 124 23 of 28 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 84 of 150 56% 59 of 121 18 of 22 7 of 7 44 of 107 36 of 39 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 22 of 32 68% 9 of 18 13 of 14 0 of 0 6 of 15 16 of 17 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 31 of 48 64% 26 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 24 20 of 22 2 of 2
2 Maycee Barber 24 of 56 42% 20 of 50 4 of 5 0 of 1 21 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 22 of 48 45% 12 of 37 6 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 42 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Maycee Barber 20 of 64 31% 15 of 54 4 of 8 1 of 2 16 of 56 4 of 8 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 31 of 54 57% 21 of 41 8 of 11 2 of 2 19 of 41 11 of 12 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Angelo slightly leans Maycee Barber due to her recent surge and well-rounded game, but warns that Katlyn Cerminara can drag opponents into a boring decision. He thinks Barber is too big a favorite. He suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds might be one of the safest bets on the card.
"I'm going to slightly lean Macy here but that's because of her recent surge she has basically won three fights in the time that Caitlyn has been away"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win, but is scared of the judges. He notes that Barber is younger, more physical, and has power, while Cerminara has zero finishes and low striking accuracy. He expects Barber's power shots to be the difference, but fears a split decision due to Cerminara's history of controversial wins.

"I'm taking Barber I think she does win but the judges scare the crap about out of me on this one"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody thinks Barber is overvalued and has shown poor takedown defense, while Cerminara is a smart fighter who can mix in takedowns and use her volume and movement. He believes Cerminara can win a close decision by outworking Barber.

"I think you would take the underdog with you look at her last number of fights I guess you know what I mean"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Daniel picks Barber but has no confidence. He notes Barber has power and gets violent when she closes the distance, but she has had controversial decisions and can be held down. He sees Cerminara as a gatekeeper who can outstrike with volume. Daniel is not interested at the price and calls it a no-confidence pick.

"my pick is Macy Barber"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cerminara (formerly Chookagian) has a reliable style of staying on the outside, using her jab and kicks, and maintaining high output. She has been out for over a year but is still capable of veteran performances. Barber is on a winning streak but has had controversial decisions and can be taken down and controlled. Cerminara's volume and optics should allow her to win rounds on the scorecards. I expect her to touch up Barber from distance and win a decision. The plus money is appealing.

Cerminara by decision
"I believe Catlin has the chops to go out there and pull off an upset she should be able to utilize her style that she's been famous with which is just staying on the outside and utilizing her output"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul agrees with the CF dog model but has some hesitation because Barber can be a brawler and has shown power. He thinks if Barber comes in aggressive, she could overwhelm Cerminara, but at plus money, he leans toward Cerminara.

"plus 180 CF do model you know taking one fight where she did what I think she's best at and saying that like well why didn't she do and like you know against Jessica I"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, dismissing Katlyn Cerminara as not good and noting her inactivity (last fight in October 2022). He highlights Barber's youth (25), power, and strength, especially since moving to flyweight. He believes Barber's finishing potential and physicality will be too much for Cerminara.

"I'm definitely going to go with Macy Barber"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 76 of 286 26% 76 of 286 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 98 of 279 35% 99 of 280 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 25 of 86 29% 25 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 29 of 84 34% 29 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Manon Fiorot 0 23 of 94 24% 23 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 43 of 95 45% 43 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Manon Fiorot 0 28 of 106 26% 28 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Katlyn Cerminara 0 26 of 100 26% 27 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 76 of 286 26% 35 of 223 21 of 40 20 of 23 72 of 278 4 of 8 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 98 of 279 35% 58 of 225 16 of 28 24 of 26 96 of 273 2 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 25 of 86 29% 13 of 65 5 of 12 7 of 9 25 of 84 0 of 2 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 29 of 84 34% 15 of 64 4 of 10 10 of 10 29 of 82 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 23 of 94 24% 12 of 74 5 of 14 6 of 6 21 of 91 2 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 43 of 95 45% 29 of 76 7 of 12 7 of 7 43 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Manon Fiorot 28 of 106 26% 10 of 84 11 of 14 7 of 8 26 of 103 2 of 3 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 26 of 100 26% 14 of 85 5 of 6 7 of 9 24 of 96 2 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo leans Manon Fiorot, citing her superior striking, power, and takedowns. He acknowledges that Katlyn Chookagian knows how to win decisions and could steal a close fight, but believes Fiorot should be better everywhere. He advises no money or parlays on Fiorot.

"I am gonna pick man in here because she should literally be better absolutely anywhere but if anyone is going to steal a decision on this card it is Caitlyn chikagian"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Fiorot to win by decision. He highlights Fiorot's power advantage and ability to mix in takedowns, noting she took down black belts Jennifer Maia and Mayra Bueno Silva. Cerminara has low striking accuracy (35%) and poor takedown defense (54%). He believes Fiorot can land the more impactful shots and control the fight on the ground if needed.

"I like Fiora here quite a bit I like her to win by decision I don't really see a finish in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody is sold on Fiorot, calling her the best in the division not named Valentina. He notes her speed, power, and complete game, and that she has been rolling through opponents. He thinks Chookagian's volume lacks impact and that Fiorot is better in every aspect. Cody expects Fiorot to win and eventually challenge for the title.

"I think fioros the real deal"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Connor picks Cerminara, believing she has improved her boxing and ability to create memorable contact, making her a consistent round winner. He notes that Fiorot is often one-and-done with her striking and leaves openings, which Cerminara can exploit. He sees this as a natural gatekeeper role for Cerminara against a rising prospect.

"I think I'm gonna pick Chookagian. I think she's found her role as the gatekeeper to the elite in this division."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision. He thinks Fiorot can match or surpass Katlyn Cerminara's volume while minimizing strikes absorbed, citing Fiorot's 70% defense. He notes Fiorot has takedown defense and has landed takedowns herself. Levi respects Cerminara's experience and ability to win decisions, but believes Fiorot is the more promising fighter with fewer holes. He does not see value at -215 but picks Fiorot to pass this test.

Picks Fiorot by decision.
"my official pick is going to be uh manofio decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Fiorot does the same thing as Chookagian but with more power and efficiency. She has good takedown defense and can redirect momentum. Chookagian may try to grapple, but Fiorot is stronger in the clinch. Fiorot by decision at -110 is a better line than the moneyline.

Fiorot by decision at -110
"give me fiod give me fiod by decision which is -110 much better line than a money line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul likely picks Fiorot but is not confident, noting that it could be a close striking battle. He mentions Chookagian's experience and that Fiorot is still improving. Paul thinks Fiorot should win but acknowledges it could be a split decision.

"likely rules but I can't say I got a whole lot of confidence in this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot over Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) by TKO. He believes Fiorot's stand-up is superior and that she will hurt Chookagian with body kicks, then swarm for a TKO. He notes Chookagian's tendency for close decisions and Fiorot's youth and improvement.

TKO
"I'm actually going to go over TKO for man on Fiora here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Zane picks Fiorot, citing her size, power, and ability to make Cerminara uncomfortable. He notes that Cerminara has struggled against good athletes who can get to her, and Fiorot's strength and reach will pose problems. He acknowledges it's a coin flip but leans on Fiorot's power and the fact that Cerminara's recent wins have been against smaller opponents.

"I'm going to pick Manon Fiorot. I think that the fight is ripe for Chookagian to play spoiler, but I still don't trust her to pull that off against somebody who can match her for size and speed."
WIN vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 63 of 222 28% 71 of 230 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 55 of 169 32% 84 of 204 3 of 6 50% 0 0 4:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 62 32% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 7 of 34 20% 15 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 61 39% 27 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Amanda Ribas 0 15 of 46 32% 28 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:01
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 19 of 99 19% 19 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Ribas 0 33 of 89 37% 41 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 63 of 222 28% 42 of 175 20 of 44 1 of 3 56 of 210 7 of 12 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 55 of 169 32% 28 of 124 8 of 23 19 of 22 49 of 156 3 of 7 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 62 32% 13 of 46 7 of 15 0 of 1 17 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 7 of 34 20% 5 of 28 1 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 61 39% 17 of 48 6 of 12 1 of 1 23 of 57 1 of 4 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 15 of 46 32% 7 of 34 2 of 5 6 of 7 13 of 41 1 of 2 1 of 3
3 Katlyn Cerminara 19 of 99 19% 12 of 81 7 of 17 0 of 1 16 of 94 3 of 5 0 of 0
Amanda Ribas 33 of 89 37% 16 of 62 5 of 14 12 of 13 32 of 86 1 of 3 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, agreeing she is a rightful favorite. He notes Ribas has been matched softly and showed limitations against Marina Rodriguez. He thinks Chookagian will out-volume Ribas on the outside, stuff takedowns, and win a decision. He mentions Chookagian's grappling has improved.

"i think it's probably decision i think it's probably just going to be one of these try to keep ahead on the punch stats and stay to the outside type fights but caitlyn jake again rightful favorite and i uh …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul is very confident in Chookagian by decision, calling it one of his first bets. He notes she out-volumes everyone, only gets finished by elite fighters, and Ribas's wrestling isn't good enough. He says 95% of her win probability is tied to a decision, and the decision prop at +120 is great value.

Chookagian by decision +120
"don't overthink this fight you just take shook by decision and be on your way i mean she pretty much out volumes everyone that she takes on she only ever really gets finished by you know the jessica andrades or …"
WIN vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 72 of 177 40% 81 of 188 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:34
Jennifer Maia 0 52 of 171 30% 60 of 180 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 51 39% 21 of 53 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
Jennifer Maia 0 15 of 49 30% 17 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 23 of 90 25% 24 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 72 of 177 40% 44 of 136 21 of 32 7 of 9 68 of 171 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 52 of 171 30% 31 of 143 5 of 8 16 of 20 48 of 167 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 16 of 41 39% 8 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 1 of 1 6 of 8 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 51 39% 10 of 35 8 of 13 2 of 3 17 of 46 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 15 of 49 30% 9 of 40 2 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 36 of 85 42% 26 of 69 7 of 12 3 of 4 36 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 23 of 90 25% 15 of 80 2 of 3 6 of 7 22 of 89 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Angelo picks Cerminara based on her volume and pace, referencing their first fight where she outstruck Maia even while on her back for half a round. He expects Maia to grapple more but believes Cerminara's takedown defense and striking output will win another decision.

"caitlyn chicago's the pick i think this fight looks very similar to the first fight with a little more emphasis on grappling from maya"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Big Brady expects the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting, with Cerminara using her reach and staying on the outside to outpoint Maia. He criticizes Maia's fight IQ, noting she rarely shoots takedowns despite having good grappling. He thinks Maia could win if she wrestles but does not trust her to do so. He picks Cerminara by decision but is not touching the moneyline due to the close nature of the fight.

"jimmy choo kagan by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, highlighting her volume, speed, and improved grappling since the first fight. He doubts Maia's ability to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, noting Maia's takedown success is overblown. He expects Chookagian to win by decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28. He recommends the decision prop at -120.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"the minus 180 price tag yeah it doesn't look great but by decision which is where this is very likely headed that doesn't look bad to me whatsoever"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Daniel Levi leans toward Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) but is not confident. He notes that Chookagian's volume and movement at distance will likely edge two rounds, but Maia has a path to victory if she implements her grappling earlier. He mentions Maia's top control and that she won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. Levi thinks the line should be closer and could see Maia winning, but ultimately leans Chookagian.

"i would lean chew kegen to edge two rounds but like it's not gonna surprise me one bit if maya comes out here with a better game plan"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Cerminara's stick-and-move style frustrated Maia. He believes Cerminara's range and movement will be too much for Maia, who hasn't shown significant improvement since their last bout. He notes Maia's takedown success in the third round of their first fight but thinks Cerminara can escape similar positions. The host is confident in Cerminara winning a decision, citing her consistent performance against similar opponents.

"i'm going to be going with catelyn chicagan here and i do believe she wins this fight once again via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, expecting a similar fight to their first where Chookagian's volume and reach advantage win rounds. He notes Maia's path is takedowns, but doubts she can secure them early and often. He mentions Chookagian's improved ground game and Maia's inconsistent wrestling. He sees a decision win for Chookagian.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"i'll go to chicago and say the exact same thing plays out as we had seen before because i can't really trust maya to go in there and secure takedowns early and often"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) to win by decision, citing her superior stand-up and reach advantage (68-inch reach vs Maia's 64-inch). He notes that Maia had a close fight with Jessica Eye, who is on her way out, while Chookagian has beaten Cynthia Calvillo and Antonina Shevchenko. He trusts Chookagian to keep the fight standing and out-strike Maia at range, and he values her activity and recent grappling improvement. He predicts a unanimous decision (30-27).

"i'm gonna go with caitlyn chukagi in here she's got better stand up than jennifer meyer"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 127 of 292 43% 135 of 300 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 89 of 196 45% 129 of 238 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 37 of 91 40% 43 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 32 of 56 57% 36 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 76 46% 37 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 22 of 48 45% 58 of 86 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 55 of 125 44% 55 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 35 of 92 38% 35 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 127 of 292 43% 87 of 236 31 of 46 9 of 10 121 of 286 6 of 6 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 89 of 196 45% 60 of 162 24 of 29 5 of 5 85 of 192 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 37 of 91 40% 21 of 67 13 of 20 3 of 4 33 of 87 4 of 4 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 32 of 56 57% 17 of 38 13 of 16 2 of 2 29 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 76 46% 24 of 62 9 of 12 2 of 2 34 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 55 of 125 44% 42 of 107 9 of 14 4 of 4 54 of 124 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 35 of 92 38% 24 of 79 9 of 11 2 of 2 34 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.

"I will take viviana rougea to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i agree with you this is a spot i like from a monkey knife fight uh perspective and i would hit the double over"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.

dog or pass situation
"i'm going to pick vv as well i i do think it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.

Chookagian by decision
"i like it or 2k in here minus 135 i think is a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (54.5 for Chookagian, 37.5 for Araújo). Fight goes to distance at -400.
"the pick officially will be caleb chicago but again this is another interesting opportunity to look at it from a live betting standpoint"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with caitlyn chukagi in here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 69 of 230 30% 69 of 230 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 60 of 197 30% 60 of 197 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 27 of 72 37% 27 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Cynthia Calvillo 0 21 of 60 35% 21 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 80 30% 24 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 17 of 71 23% 17 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 78 23% 18 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 69 of 230 30% 45 of 190 11 of 22 13 of 18 68 of 227 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 60 of 197 30% 31 of 134 17 of 46 12 of 17 59 of 196 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 27 of 72 37% 11 of 51 7 of 10 9 of 11 27 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 21 of 60 35% 11 of 42 4 of 11 6 of 7 21 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 80 30% 19 of 71 2 of 5 3 of 4 23 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 17 of 71 23% 8 of 51 6 of 15 3 of 5 17 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 78 23% 15 of 68 2 of 7 1 of 3 18 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 66 33% 12 of 41 7 of 20 3 of 5 21 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by decision. He notes Calvillo has good wrestling and Chookagian has poor takedown defense (48%). He thinks Calvillo will take her down and control the fight, though the line is too wide for a close fight.

"the picks calvio by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel picks Calvillo, citing her toughness, improved striking, and ground game. He notes Chookagian has been talking about retirement and was stopped in her last fight. He believes Calvillo is hungrier and will impose her will, especially if she gets top position.

"i'm gonna go with cynthia cavilla calvillo to get this one done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by decision, seeing massive value at plus money. He believes her movement and range will cause problems for Calvillo, and that she can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the ground. He thinks the line is too wide and that Cerminara has a good chance.

"I'm going to go with Tran to win this fight via decision as uh you know if this fight does primarily play out on the feet she could absolutely steal it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

The MMA Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Calvillo's takedowns will be the difference, as she has evolved and has good grappling. He notes Chookagian may be coming back too soon after a body shot loss, and that Calvillo has wins over top flyweights like Joanne Calderwood.

"going to go with cynthia calvio getting the unanimous decision win"
TKO (body punches) R1 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 53 35% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Katlyn Cerminara 1 28 of 43 65% 62 of 79 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 53 35% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Katlyn Cerminara 1 28 of 43 65% 62 of 79 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 12 of 18 0 of 0 10 of 41 9 of 12 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 28 of 43 65% 11 of 24 11 of 12 6 of 7 14 of 28 8 of 9 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 12 of 18 0 of 0 10 of 41 9 of 12 0 of 0
Katlyn Cerminara 28 of 43 65% 11 of 24 11 of 12 6 of 7 14 of 28 8 of 9 6 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady picks Andrade despite the size disadvantage, citing her superior wrestling and power. He notes Chookagian has poor takedown defense and is often out-landed but wins decisions due to volume. He expects Andrade to close the distance, get takedowns, and land harder shots, winning a decision. He is wary of judges favoring Chookagian.

"give me androge to win here i'm going to say bye decision i don't think a finish is off the table"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade because she has fought at a higher level in strawweight and has the skills to pressure and beat Cerminara. He worries about Andrade's height disadvantage but believes she can take the fight to the ground and win the later rounds. He expects Andrade to win the second and third rounds, possibly losing the first.

"i think android gets it down against true kagan unless she shows up like a fat pudding and doesn't look good at fly away"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 73 of 108 67% 200 of 240 3 of 3 100% 4 0 10:36
Antonina Shevchenko 0 25 of 64 39% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 24 83% 70 of 77 1 of 1 100% 4 0 4:27
Antonina Shevchenko 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 21 85% 83 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:53
Antonina Shevchenko 0 5 of 6 83% 14 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 63 55% 47 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 54 31% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 73 of 108 67% 55 of 81 12 of 18 6 of 9 22 of 49 4 of 4 47 of 55
Antonina Shevchenko 25 of 64 39% 14 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 24 83% 17 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 21 85% 16 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 19
Antonina Shevchenko 5 of 6 83% 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 63 55% 22 of 43 9 of 14 4 of 6 20 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 54 31% 11 of 46 3 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Not touching from a betting perspective
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko I think she's a better striker I think she's going to land the harder shots as well the more convincing shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

"i'm gonna agree with you that's gonna be a split decision but i'm gonna edge antonina on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Cerminara by decision
"Caitlin shook a key in here she's longer she's rain jeah I think she's gonna get a job done against Antonina Shevchenko"
Alexis Davis - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexis Davis 0 85 of 120 70% 171 of 218 1 of 1 100% 0 0 9:09
Julija Stoliarenko 0 56 of 113 49% 93 of 154 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexis Davis 0 22 of 26 84% 63 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:52
Julija Stoliarenko 0 3 of 3 100% 20 of 23 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:00
2 Alexis Davis 0 38 of 60 63% 38 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julija Stoliarenko 0 45 of 96 46% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexis Davis 0 25 of 34 73% 70 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:17
Julija Stoliarenko 0 8 of 14 57% 28 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexis Davis 85 of 120 70% 55 of 86 9 of 12 21 of 22 41 of 64 1 of 1 43 of 55
Julija Stoliarenko 56 of 113 49% 40 of 94 14 of 17 2 of 2 51 of 108 1 of 1 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexis Davis 22 of 26 84% 22 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 22 of 26
Julija Stoliarenko 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
2 Alexis Davis 38 of 60 63% 14 of 33 5 of 7 19 of 20 37 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julija Stoliarenko 45 of 96 46% 32 of 81 13 of 15 0 of 0 44 of 95 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexis Davis 25 of 34 73% 19 of 27 4 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 21 of 29
Julija Stoliarenko 8 of 14 57% 6 of 11 0 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Angelo picks Alexis Davis as the veteran with experience and fight IQ. He notes Davis is a busy striker with a one-to-one striking differential, but she loses only to top-ranked opponents. Stoliarenko has great jiu-jitsu but poor wrestling and striking. Angelo expects Davis to dominate with combinations and avoid submission threats.

"i gotta go with the vet here i'm going with alexis davis to use her experience and use her fight iq to grind out what i think will pre a pretty one-sided win for her"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Davis has better striking, pace, and ground game. He thinks Stoliarenko is not on Davis's level. He is confident Davis wins but acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable.

"gotta go with my girl uh the alley gator alexis davis"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Daniel Levi picks Alexis Davis but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Davis is a veteran with experience, but she has lost four of her last five and is 38. Stoliarenko is known for armbars off her back. Levi thinks Davis should win but the -240 price is too high, so he advises passing or taking the dog. He picks Davis but says it's not a betting opportunity.

"the pick is davis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Lock of the Night picks Davis, citing her superior striking and experience. He notes Stoliarenko's only path is armbar, but Davis is a tenured black belt. He expects Davis to win via decision or possibly finish. He likes Davis by decision at even money.

Davis by decision +100
"i think davis absolutely wipes estolia right quick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Paul thinks Davis has superior skills everywhere and should win easily. He notes that Stoliarenko's only threat is an armbar, but Davis is a veteran who should avoid that. He is confident Davis wins by decision and likes the Davis by decision prop.

Davis by decision (even money)
"davis by decision is even money i think that's a pretty solid bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

The MMA Guru picks Alexis Davis, calling her underrated despite her record. He notes she has had close fights with top fighters like Viviane Araujo and Jennifer Maia, but often loses due to being cut by bigger shots. He dismisses Julija Stoliarenko as 'hot trash' and predicts a 30-26 decision win for Davis, with a 10-8 third round.

decision, 30-26
"i'm going to go with alexis davis here... i think she's going to win the first two rounds outland uh julius dollarenko in those first two rounds dominate her get the takedown"
LOSS vs Pannie Kianzad
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pannie Kianzad 0 124 of 249 49% 124 of 249 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Alexis Davis 0 132 of 251 52% 147 of 268 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pannie Kianzad 0 49 of 82 59% 49 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Alexis Davis 0 42 of 84 50% 50 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Pannie Kianzad 0 37 of 83 44% 37 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexis Davis 0 44 of 82 53% 50 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
3 Pannie Kianzad 0 38 of 84 45% 38 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexis Davis 0 46 of 85 54% 47 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pannie Kianzad 124 of 249 49% 99 of 210 24 of 38 1 of 1 122 of 246 2 of 3 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 132 of 251 52% 95 of 211 12 of 15 25 of 25 125 of 239 7 of 9 0 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pannie Kianzad 49 of 82 59% 38 of 66 10 of 15 1 of 1 47 of 80 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 42 of 84 50% 30 of 71 2 of 3 10 of 10 41 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Pannie Kianzad 37 of 83 44% 29 of 69 8 of 14 0 of 0 37 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 44 of 82 53% 32 of 69 4 of 5 8 of 8 40 of 75 4 of 4 0 of 3
3 Pannie Kianzad 38 of 84 45% 32 of 75 6 of 9 0 of 0 38 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 46 of 85 54% 33 of 71 6 of 7 7 of 7 44 of 81 2 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Big Brady picks Alexis Davis as a slight underdog, believing her grappling and top control can be the difference. He notes Davis has faced tougher competition and has a black belt, but she needs to consistently go for takedowns. He is concerned about Kianzad's recent winning streak but sees value in Davis if she implements a wrestling-heavy game plan.

Davis by decision
"i'm gonna actually pick alexis davis here to kind of implement hopefully that same game plan against the bina mazzo get this fight down to the mat"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Cody slightly favors Kianzad, citing her jab and takedown defense. He thinks she can keep the fight standing and outbox Davis. He notes Davis's toughness and BJJ but believes Kianzad's striking will be the difference. He is not betting it.

"it's like an ever so slight pick for penny kianzad"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Daniel Levi picks Pannie Kianzad, noting her improved takedown defense and boxing volume. He respects Alexis Davis as a vet but thinks Kianzad's size and striking will be too much. He expects Kianzad to keep the fight standing and out-volume Davis, leading to a clear decision win.

"i'm gonna go with panicky keon's ad to keep it standing and just out volume alexis davis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Pannie Kianzad

Kianzad has superior striking and can use her jab to stay on the outside, while Davis is slower and relies on grappling. Kianzad showed she can survive takedowns and come back in later rounds, as seen in her last fight. However, Davis is durable and could grind out a win if she gets takedowns. Kianzad likely wins a decision if she fights disciplined.

Kianzad by decision
"I do end up leaning on the Pannie Kianzad side due to her having better striking... I'm going to take Kianzad to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul passes on this fight. He sees it as a close fight that likely goes the distance, but the line doesn't offer value. He notes Davis's grappling threat but is not confident enough to bet.

"it's more of a past situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad, citing her superior striking, underrated takedown defense (85% defense rate), and youth. He believes she can replicate Sabina Mazo's success on the feet against Alexis Davis and avoid takedowns. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm gonna go with pani kianzad here because i feel like she's definitely going to get the better of alexis davis on the feet"
WIN vs Sabina Mazo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexis Davis 0 49 of 83 59% 128 of 196 3 of 3 100% 0 0 8:50
Sabina Mazo 0 64 of 165 38% 71 of 173 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexis Davis 0 6 of 16 37% 39 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:51
Sabina Mazo 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexis Davis 0 40 of 60 66% 50 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Sabina Mazo 0 47 of 118 39% 48 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Alexis Davis 0 3 of 7 42% 39 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:35
Sabina Mazo 0 4 of 9 44% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexis Davis 49 of 83 59% 8 of 37 4 of 5 37 of 41 46 of 78 0 of 0 3 of 5
Sabina Mazo 64 of 165 38% 50 of 149 5 of 7 9 of 9 64 of 165 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexis Davis 6 of 16 37% 1 of 9 0 of 1 5 of 6 5 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 2
Sabina Mazo 13 of 38 34% 12 of 36 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexis Davis 40 of 60 66% 5 of 23 4 of 4 31 of 33 39 of 59 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sabina Mazo 47 of 118 39% 36 of 106 3 of 4 8 of 8 47 of 118 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexis Davis 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
Sabina Mazo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sabina Mazo

Big Brady picks Sabina Mazo to win by decision. He highlights Mazo's striking advantage: she throws more output (7.14 significant strikes per minute) and has better accuracy and defense. He notes Davis is 36, on a three-fight skid, and has poor takedown defense (32%), but Davis rarely uses her grappling. He thinks if Davis doesn't get takedowns, she will get pieced up. He acknowledges it's women's MMA and could be close, but favors Mazo comfortably.

decision win for Mazo
"i'm going to take mazda here to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Sabina Mazo

Daniel Levi picks Sabina Mazo, emphasizing the 13-year age gap and Mazo's youth and power. He notes Alexis Davis has not landed more than one takedown in a fight since 2014, and her striking defense is poor. Levi believes Mazo will outpoint Davis and eventually land a signature high kick for a knockout, as Davis takes too much damage and doesn't adjust.

"I just see sabine mazzo out pointing uh alexis davis but i think eventually at some point she will land that signature high kick and she will knock her out so i'm gonna go with uh sabine mazzo to get …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexis Davis

Davis has a huge experience advantage and a pressure-heavy style that should stifle Mazo. She catches kicks well and can take the fight to the ground, where she has good top control. Mazo has been controlled by wrestlers before, and Davis's durability should allow her to weather Mazo's striking. Expect a decision win for Davis.

"plus 200 on alexis davis does not really look that bad and then that's the side that i'm going to be leaning with"
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · Jul 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 68 of 137 49% 134 of 213 0 of 4 0% 0 1 3:47
Alexis Davis 0 67 of 148 45% 79 of 162 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alexis Davis 0 35 of 65 53% 35 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
2 Viviane Araújo 0 19 of 36 52% 67 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:50
Alexis Davis 0 15 of 33 45% 20 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
3 Viviane Araújo 0 23 of 43 53% 41 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Alexis Davis 0 17 of 50 34% 24 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 68 of 137 49% 33 of 88 20 of 33 15 of 16 53 of 110 6 of 15 9 of 12
Alexis Davis 67 of 148 45% 52 of 128 12 of 17 3 of 3 64 of 145 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 26 of 58 44% 8 of 33 11 of 18 7 of 7 25 of 51 1 of 7 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 35 of 65 53% 24 of 52 8 of 10 3 of 3 34 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 19 of 36 52% 14 of 28 3 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 23 0 of 1 9 of 12
Alexis Davis 15 of 33 45% 14 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Viviane Araújo 23 of 43 53% 11 of 27 6 of 9 6 of 7 18 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 17 of 50 34% 14 of 44 3 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Mar 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 72 of 122 59% 107 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 5:14
Alexis Davis 0 60 of 128 46% 70 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 21 of 35 60% 30 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:46
Alexis Davis 0 26 of 42 61% 33 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
2 Jennifer Maia 0 10 of 21 47% 34 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:20
Alexis Davis 0 8 of 28 28% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jennifer Maia 0 41 of 66 62% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Alexis Davis 0 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 72 of 122 59% 16 of 54 28 of 37 28 of 31 50 of 94 21 of 27 1 of 1
Alexis Davis 60 of 128 46% 44 of 112 12 of 12 4 of 4 49 of 113 11 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 21 of 35 60% 3 of 13 9 of 12 9 of 10 3 of 12 18 of 23 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 26 of 42 61% 17 of 33 6 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 30 9 of 12 0 of 0
2 Jennifer Maia 10 of 21 47% 3 of 11 5 of 7 2 of 3 9 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1
Alexis Davis 8 of 28 28% 4 of 24 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jennifer Maia 41 of 66 62% 10 of 30 14 of 18 17 of 18 38 of 62 3 of 4 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 26 of 58 44% 23 of 55 3 of 3 0 of 0 24 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Jul 28, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 70 of 201 34% 77 of 208 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
Alexis Davis 0 62 of 202 30% 62 of 202 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 24 of 73 32% 24 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexis Davis 0 17 of 65 26% 17 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 27 of 67 40% 27 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexis Davis 0 24 of 69 34% 24 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 19 of 61 31% 26 of 68 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
Alexis Davis 0 21 of 68 30% 21 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 70 of 201 34% 24 of 141 10 of 17 36 of 43 66 of 196 4 of 5 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 62 of 202 30% 50 of 188 9 of 11 3 of 3 61 of 201 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 24 of 73 32% 7 of 53 4 of 7 13 of 13 20 of 69 4 of 4 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 17 of 65 26% 14 of 62 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 27 of 67 40% 7 of 42 5 of 7 15 of 18 27 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 24 of 69 34% 17 of 61 5 of 6 2 of 2 24 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 19 of 61 31% 10 of 46 1 of 3 8 of 12 19 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexis Davis 21 of 68 30% 19 of 65 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 67 1 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Liz Carmouche
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Dec 09, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexis Davis 0 23 of 63 36% 132 of 182 1 of 3 33% 2 1 5:51
Liz Carmouche 0 49 of 71 69% 191 of 215 4 of 4 100% 0 0 6:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexis Davis 0 9 of 16 56% 26 of 33 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:36
Liz Carmouche 0 16 of 21 76% 70 of 76 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:39
2 Alexis Davis 0 6 of 22 27% 72 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:01
Liz Carmouche 0 13 of 19 68% 65 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:01
3 Alexis Davis 0 8 of 25 32% 34 of 55 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:14
Liz Carmouche 0 20 of 31 64% 56 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexis Davis 23 of 63 36% 10 of 44 6 of 10 7 of 9 7 of 39 9 of 15 7 of 9
Liz Carmouche 49 of 71 69% 29 of 46 13 of 15 7 of 10 20 of 40 12 of 13 17 of 18
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexis Davis 9 of 16 56% 2 of 9 4 of 4 3 of 3 1 of 8 8 of 8 0 of 0
Liz Carmouche 16 of 21 76% 8 of 11 4 of 6 4 of 4 2 of 7 9 of 9 5 of 5
2 Alexis Davis 6 of 22 27% 3 of 15 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 13 1 of 6 2 of 3
Liz Carmouche 13 of 19 68% 11 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 3 8 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 4
3 Alexis Davis 8 of 25 32% 5 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 4 3 of 18 0 of 1 5 of 6
Liz Carmouche 20 of 31 64% 10 of 21 7 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 19 2 of 3 8 of 9
WIN vs Cindy Dandois
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Apr 22, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexis Davis 0 51 of 123 41% 115 of 192 0 of 0 --- 2 1 2:44
Cindy Dandois 0 47 of 146 32% 100 of 212 5 of 9 55% 0 0 6:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexis Davis 0 7 of 12 58% 26 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:25
Cindy Dandois 0 7 of 13 53% 27 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:31
2 Alexis Davis 0 31 of 66 46% 55 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Cindy Dandois 0 28 of 82 34% 35 of 89 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:55
3 Alexis Davis 0 13 of 45 28% 34 of 68 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Cindy Dandois 0 12 of 51 23% 38 of 81 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexis Davis 51 of 123 41% 21 of 88 17 of 21 13 of 14 35 of 104 9 of 9 7 of 10
Cindy Dandois 47 of 146 32% 34 of 125 6 of 8 7 of 13 28 of 114 8 of 18 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexis Davis 7 of 12 58% 6 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 8
Cindy Dandois 7 of 13 53% 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 7
2 Alexis Davis 31 of 66 46% 13 of 44 9 of 13 9 of 9 24 of 59 6 of 6 1 of 1
Cindy Dandois 28 of 82 34% 17 of 66 5 of 7 6 of 9 20 of 66 6 of 12 2 of 4
3 Alexis Davis 13 of 45 28% 2 of 33 7 of 7 4 of 5 9 of 41 3 of 3 1 of 1
Cindy Dandois 12 of 51 23% 10 of 47 1 of 1 1 of 3 7 of 42 2 of 6 3 of 3