UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Jun 09, 2018 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 4"
Reach 63"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 1"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Cláudia Gadelha
3.31 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
4.57 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
3.03 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Carla Esparza
2.19 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
2.87 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
3.28 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Cláudia Gadelha - Fight History
LOSS vs Yan Xiaonan
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Santos vs. Teixeira · Nov 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yan Xiaonan 0 36 of 96 37% 84 of 149 2 of 10 20% 0 0 6:46
Cláudia Gadelha 0 74 of 170 43% 133 of 234 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yan Xiaonan 0 10 of 26 38% 53 of 72 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:06
Cláudia Gadelha 0 19 of 36 52% 51 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Yan Xiaonan 0 17 of 43 39% 18 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Cláudia Gadelha 0 26 of 78 33% 27 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Yan Xiaonan 0 9 of 27 33% 13 of 33 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:33
Cláudia Gadelha 0 29 of 56 51% 55 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yan Xiaonan 36 of 96 37% 29 of 84 6 of 11 1 of 1 30 of 88 1 of 3 5 of 5
Cláudia Gadelha 74 of 170 43% 54 of 143 15 of 21 5 of 6 58 of 149 14 of 18 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yan Xiaonan 10 of 26 38% 9 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 5
Cláudia Gadelha 19 of 36 52% 10 of 22 6 of 10 3 of 4 13 of 27 4 of 6 2 of 3
2 Yan Xiaonan 17 of 43 39% 13 of 38 3 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cláudia Gadelha 26 of 78 33% 23 of 73 2 of 4 1 of 1 26 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yan Xiaonan 9 of 27 33% 7 of 22 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cláudia Gadelha 29 of 56 51% 21 of 48 7 of 7 1 of 1 19 of 44 10 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Big Brady picks Yan, citing her volume striking and power, and Gadelha's decline in wrestling and cardio. He thinks Yan's takedown defense is good and she will win a decision, possibly live betting opportunity. He notes Gadelha has been dropped before.

decision, live betting opportunity
"I like yon here I would you know give godelia more of a shot if I just saw more wrestling as of late"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she is catching Cláudia Gadelha at the perfect time. He acknowledges Gadelha's grappling threat but thinks Yan can stuff takedowns and outwork her on the feet with volume and damage. Levi notes Yan's training at Alpha Male and with Sarah McMahon to improve wrestling, and he expects Yan to win a decision or possibly get a finish. He is concerned about submission but thinks Yan can avoid it.

"i see uh yan zhanna coming out here as long as she doesn't get submitted and listen claudia she's definitely a black belt jiu jitsu she's only submitted one person in the ufc carolina but that doesn't mean she can't …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

The host likes Yan Xiaonan's pressure, power, and combinations to overwhelm Gadelha, who has cardio issues and declining takedown effectiveness. He notes Yan's training at Team Alpha Male and her ability to get back to her feet. He expects a decision or third-round TKO, and loves the -135 line.

He might play the round three prop for Yan. He mentions the line is great at -135 and he likes it up to -170.
"I love the line on her too currently at -135 which is great... i'm probably going to play her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

The MMA Guru picks Yan Xiaonan to win by unanimous decision. He believes Yan will pick apart Gadelha from range with her straight punches, and that Gadelha slows down as the fight goes on. He notes Yan's high output and ability to rally in later rounds.

"i'm going to be going with yan zhao nan picking apart kedalia from range"
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cláudia Gadelha 0 84 of 210 40% 92 of 218 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:47
Angela Hill 1 90 of 176 51% 93 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cláudia Gadelha 0 21 of 47 44% 28 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:33
Angela Hill 0 10 of 26 38% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Cláudia Gadelha 0 29 of 71 40% 30 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Angela Hill 1 37 of 72 51% 37 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
3 Cláudia Gadelha 0 34 of 92 36% 34 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Angela Hill 0 43 of 78 55% 43 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cláudia Gadelha 84 of 210 40% 61 of 179 14 of 21 9 of 10 78 of 202 2 of 4 4 of 4
Angela Hill 90 of 176 51% 60 of 136 29 of 39 1 of 1 86 of 170 4 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cláudia Gadelha 21 of 47 44% 14 of 39 6 of 6 1 of 2 16 of 41 1 of 2 4 of 4
Angela Hill 10 of 26 38% 4 of 16 6 of 10 0 of 0 9 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cláudia Gadelha 29 of 71 40% 22 of 62 3 of 5 4 of 4 29 of 70 0 of 1 0 of 0
Angela Hill 37 of 72 51% 25 of 58 12 of 14 0 of 0 34 of 67 3 of 3 0 of 2
3 Cláudia Gadelha 34 of 92 36% 25 of 78 5 of 10 4 of 4 33 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
Angela Hill 43 of 78 55% 31 of 62 11 of 15 1 of 1 43 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Claudia Gadelha vs. Angela Hill

Round 1
In this co-main event, former title challenger Gadelha (17-4, 6-4 UFC) will look to stave off the momentum of “Overkill” Hill (12-7, 7-7 UFC) at strawweight. This potentially all-action scrap will gain oversight by referee Keith Peterson, and no nonsense will be tolerated for this next fight. Gadelha starts with a low kick, as they do not bother with touching gloves, and Hill tries to angle her way in while avoiding the left hand from the Brazilian. Gadelha shoots in for takedown but cannot score it, although she does manage to land a left hand in the process. Hill is the one pressing the pace, but other than a knee on the inside, she did not land much of significance in this exchange. Gadelha jabs her way in and blocks the looping left hand counter. The former challenger goes to the body and slaps a leg kick while dodging what Hill throws her way. Hill slips in a left, but Gadelha connects with an overhand left and a right to the body. Gadelha catches Hill on the way in with a jab, while blocking the left hook from Hill again. The jab from Gadelha scores again, and the two clinch up to throw hard but Gadelha wants the body lock takedown. Gadelha presses “Overkill” to the fence, and tries to trip Hill’s leg out but cannot secure it. Gadelha drops down for a single, and Hill defends it to stand Gadelha back up. Gadelha doggedly pursues this takedown, clinging to Hill like a bad penny while sneaking the leg out. “Claudinha” manages to hit the takedown she so desperately sought, partially because she muscled the fight down to her realm. She lands in side control, and grinds an elbow on Hill’s chin. Gadelha pulls her right arm free to land a punch, although Hill is holding on tight to block the strike and try to walk up the fence. Gadelha places her knee on Hill’s stomach to get top position, and in the scramble, Hill gets to her knees and eats some short punches. Although she stands up, Gadelha is practically attached at the hip until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gadelha
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gadelha
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gadelha

Round 2
Hill begins the round with the jab, allowing Gadelha to swing with a few power strikes to back Hill off. Gadelha is able to see Hill’s punches coming, as she protects the lion’s share of them in time to block or avoid them. Three punches from Gadelha only see one land, but Hill fires back with a left straight. Another from Hill opens a cut under Gadelha’s eye. A huge right hand from Hill sends Gadelha crashing down to the ground, and Hill listens to her corner and backs off. Allowing Gadelha to stand up, an excited Hill plants a solid uppercut on Gadelha’s chin. Gadelha is wearing it now, and a forced takedown does not succeed as she takes another left in the process. Hill’s speed is playing a factor now, as she lands a one-two but gets out of danger when Gadelha wings shots back at her. Gadelha ties her up again and eats a knee on the body, but it is Hill that briefly tosses her aside. The Brazilian stands back up, but Hill is now on the offense against the fence. As Gadelha circles out and tries to load up on a left, Hill ducks out of the way and they return to the center of the cage. Gadelha swings and misses with a few power punches, and dodges Hill’s left hand to land a right of her own. Gadelha swings and scores with a heavy right hand to catch Hill, and then nails Hill with a left with equal power. Hill stuffs a takedown and works the body with a few punches, and the two start trading. Hill again targets the body with punches, while Gadelha is primarily headhunting. Hill throws a few front kicks to break up her routine, and just avoids a glancing blow from the hard-swinging Brazilian. “Overkill” catches Gadelha on the end of a left hand to possibly stumble her, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill

Round 3
Gadelha tries to start off by putting the fight where she wants it, but Hill stuffs a quick takedown and starts to slug it out. Both women stand in front of each other and trade, with Hill relying on volume while Gadelha is loading up. Hill rips to the body with a combination, and rings a left off the forehead of her opponent. Gadelha digs in a solid leg kick, but admires her work a little too long and takes a one-two. Another punch from Hill makes Gadelha check her nose briefly, and Hill follows it up with a left. Hill escapes from a cocked back left hand from the Brazilian, and stings her with a left but gets caught on the jaw with an elbow. Gadelha scores a right, and Hill jabs a few times to snap Gadelha’s head back. Gadelha chases after her to try to swing hard, and Hill avoids the hard shots while sneaking in quick straight punches. As Gadelha comes in, Hill rings her bell with a left hand, and Gadelha takes a few hops to get her balance. Hill flips up a head kick that gets blocked, and hooks a right hand. Gadelha fires right back at her and plants a left hook on Hill’s face. Hill shoves her away to get some separation, and then sticks out a jab. As Gadelha overcommits to a right hook, Hill ducks to throw a spinning back elbow, but she cannot quite land it. A few short punches have busted the nose up of Gadelha, who is now leaking from multiple places on her face. Gadelha loads up with an elbow to crack Hill, and Hill does a quick count of her teeth. We hear the 10-second clapper, and these two slug it out right until the end. Wow, what a fight. This is almost certainly going to be a close one, and win or lose, Hill's stock should definitely rise for hanging in there with a top contender.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gadelha (29-28 Gadelha)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)

The Official Result
Claudia Gadelha def. Angela Hill via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Cláudia Gadelha

Big Brady picks Cláudia Gadelha by decision, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes that Hill has improved but still gets taken down by lower-level opponents. He is worried about Gadelha's gas tank and expects Hill to win the third round on the feet, but believes Gadelha will win the first two rounds with takedowns and control. He also mentions a possible submission from Gadelha.

decision, possible submission, Hill underdog +170
"I'm gonna go with Claudia Delia here but I do think this fight is a lot closer than the line indicates... I think the dahlias gonna win here by decision get those first two rounds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Cláudia Gadelha

Daniel Levi picks Cláudia Gadelha via submission. He notes that historically Angela Hill loses when stepping up in competition, and Gadelha has good people behind her now. He expects Gadelha to take Hill down, pass guard, and submit her. He acknowledges that if Hill survives the first round, her striking volume could make things interesting, but ultimately believes Gadelha will play it smart.

submission
"I think she's gonna come out here take down Angela Hill pass the guard and submitter so I'm calling with cloud [ __ ] Delia via submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The host picks Angela Hill, arguing that Gadelha has plateaued while Hill is still improving. He notes Hill's kickboxing and grappling defense, and believes she will out-strike Gadelha over three rounds for a decision win. He cites a decline in Gadelha's performance since her title fights.

Angela Hill by unanimous decision
"Angela Hill is improving way more she just bought a great kick boxer in luma look boom she's got great grappling defense as well I think Angela Hills gonna go out there and get the job done"
WIN vs Randa Markos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cláudia Gadelha 0 40 of 107 37% 41 of 108 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Randa Markos 0 25 of 109 22% 26 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cláudia Gadelha 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randa Markos 0 10 of 34 29% 10 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cláudia Gadelha 0 10 of 31 32% 11 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Randa Markos 0 7 of 35 20% 8 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cláudia Gadelha 0 18 of 41 43% 18 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randa Markos 0 8 of 40 20% 8 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cláudia Gadelha 40 of 107 37% 36 of 96 1 of 4 3 of 7 37 of 98 3 of 9 0 of 0
Randa Markos 25 of 109 22% 19 of 99 3 of 4 3 of 6 17 of 96 8 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cláudia Gadelha 12 of 35 34% 11 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 2 9 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
Randa Markos 10 of 34 29% 8 of 32 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Cláudia Gadelha 10 of 31 32% 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 3 10 of 28 0 of 3 0 of 0
Randa Markos 7 of 35 20% 5 of 30 1 of 2 1 of 3 6 of 31 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Cláudia Gadelha 18 of 41 43% 15 of 35 1 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randa Markos 8 of 40 20% 6 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
LOSS vs Nina Nunes
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nina Nunes 0 49 of 112 43% 85 of 149 2 of 10 20% 0 0 3:21
Cláudia Gadelha 0 96 of 211 45% 123 of 238 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nina Nunes 0 13 of 31 41% 28 of 47 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:45
Cláudia Gadelha 0 19 of 37 51% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nina Nunes 0 13 of 29 44% 34 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
Cláudia Gadelha 0 25 of 58 43% 49 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nina Nunes 0 23 of 52 44% 23 of 52 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Cláudia Gadelha 0 52 of 116 44% 52 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nina Nunes 49 of 112 43% 45 of 106 3 of 4 1 of 2 38 of 97 4 of 8 7 of 7
Cláudia Gadelha 96 of 211 45% 62 of 173 5 of 9 29 of 29 91 of 205 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nina Nunes 13 of 31 41% 13 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 24 2 of 3 4 of 4
Cláudia Gadelha 19 of 37 51% 12 of 30 1 of 1 6 of 6 17 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Nina Nunes 13 of 29 44% 11 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 2 9 of 22 1 of 4 3 of 3
Cláudia Gadelha 25 of 58 43% 18 of 49 0 of 2 7 of 7 22 of 55 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Nina Nunes 23 of 52 44% 21 of 49 2 of 3 0 of 0 22 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cláudia Gadelha 52 of 116 44% 32 of 94 4 of 6 16 of 16 52 of 116 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Carla Esparza
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Jun 09, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cláudia Gadelha 0 26 of 64 40% 78 of 124 4 of 5 80% 1 0 5:00
Carla Esparza 0 43 of 103 41% 205 of 288 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cláudia Gadelha 0 13 of 28 46% 26 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:59
Carla Esparza 0 13 of 36 36% 44 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:14
2 Cláudia Gadelha 0 4 of 15 26% 28 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:44
Carla Esparza 0 14 of 27 51% 83 of 104 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
3 Cláudia Gadelha 0 9 of 21 42% 24 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
Carla Esparza 0 16 of 40 40% 78 of 110 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cláudia Gadelha 26 of 64 40% 23 of 59 3 of 5 0 of 0 22 of 57 1 of 2 3 of 5
Carla Esparza 43 of 103 41% 33 of 89 3 of 3 7 of 11 28 of 79 7 of 12 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cláudia Gadelha 13 of 28 46% 12 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 23 1 of 1 2 of 4
Carla Esparza 13 of 36 36% 8 of 30 0 of 0 5 of 6 11 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 1
2 Cláudia Gadelha 4 of 15 26% 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carla Esparza 14 of 27 51% 12 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 3 6 of 16 4 of 7 4 of 4
3 Cláudia Gadelha 9 of 21 42% 7 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 16 of 40 40% 13 of 36 2 of 2 1 of 2 11 of 30 1 of 3 4 of 7
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · Sep 23, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 42 of 91 46% 47 of 96 0 of 7 0% 2 0 0:08
Cláudia Gadelha 0 141 of 241 58% 242 of 355 4 of 7 57% 0 0 8:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 23 of 52 44% 27 of 56 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Cláudia Gadelha 0 28 of 62 45% 48 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:59
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 16 of 28 57% 17 of 29 0 of 5 0% 1 0 0:08
Cláudia Gadelha 0 52 of 92 56% 73 of 122 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:15
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cláudia Gadelha 0 61 of 87 70% 121 of 151 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 42 of 91 46% 41 of 87 1 of 4 0 of 0 30 of 71 9 of 15 3 of 5
Cláudia Gadelha 141 of 241 58% 83 of 175 50 of 58 8 of 8 45 of 107 18 of 25 78 of 109
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 23 of 52 44% 23 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 40 7 of 10 1 of 2
Cláudia Gadelha 28 of 62 45% 17 of 48 11 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 25 6 of 9 18 of 28
2 Jéssica Andrade 16 of 28 57% 15 of 25 1 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cláudia Gadelha 52 of 92 56% 37 of 74 10 of 13 5 of 5 36 of 73 7 of 9 9 of 10
3 Jéssica Andrade 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 1 of 4 2 of 3
Cláudia Gadelha 61 of 87 70% 29 of 53 29 of 31 3 of 3 5 of 9 5 of 7 51 of 71
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:03 · UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Jun 03, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cláudia Gadelha 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 9 of 37 24% 12 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cláudia Gadelha 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 9 of 37 24% 12 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cláudia Gadelha 8 of 28 28% 6 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 1 6 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 9 of 37 24% 6 of 33 0 of 1 3 of 3 9 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cláudia Gadelha 8 of 28 28% 6 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 1 6 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 9 of 37 24% 6 of 33 0 of 1 3 of 3 9 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Cortney Casey
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira 2 · Nov 19, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cláudia Gadelha 0 34 of 80 42% 43 of 92 6 of 6 100% 1 0 6:25
Cortney Casey 0 22 of 68 32% 46 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cláudia Gadelha 0 5 of 18 27% 10 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:23
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 22 40% 17 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Cláudia Gadelha 0 9 of 25 36% 11 of 27 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:59
Cortney Casey 0 8 of 19 42% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Cláudia Gadelha 0 20 of 37 54% 22 of 40 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:03
Cortney Casey 0 5 of 27 18% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cláudia Gadelha 34 of 80 42% 30 of 75 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 64 6 of 11 3 of 5
Cortney Casey 22 of 68 32% 10 of 49 6 of 9 6 of 10 14 of 54 8 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cláudia Gadelha 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 1
Cortney Casey 9 of 22 40% 5 of 17 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 16 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Cláudia Gadelha 9 of 25 36% 8 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 15 3 of 8 1 of 2
Cortney Casey 8 of 19 42% 3 of 12 4 of 5 1 of 2 5 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Cláudia Gadelha 20 of 37 54% 17 of 33 2 of 3 1 of 1 16 of 33 2 of 2 2 of 2
Cortney Casey 5 of 27 18% 2 of 20 0 of 2 3 of 5 5 of 23 0 of 4 0 of 0
Carla Esparza - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 39 of 123 31% 116 of 215 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:40
Carla Esparza 0 80 of 150 53% 94 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 6 of 26 23% 77 of 105 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:52
Carla Esparza 0 13 of 38 34% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 43 27% 17 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:29
Carla Esparza 0 31 of 55 56% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 21 of 54 38% 22 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Carla Esparza 0 36 of 57 63% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 39 of 123 31% 30 of 112 4 of 6 5 of 5 33 of 110 0 of 3 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 80 of 150 53% 28 of 92 11 of 12 41 of 46 75 of 142 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 6 of 26 23% 4 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 13 of 38 34% 8 of 32 3 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 12 of 43 27% 6 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 31 of 55 56% 14 of 37 5 of 5 12 of 13 31 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 21 of 54 38% 20 of 53 0 of 0 1 of 1 15 of 44 0 of 0 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 36 of 57 63% 6 of 23 3 of 4 27 of 30 34 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds is the safest bet on the card
"Tisha is the pick she's going to be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here I'm I'm going to take Pennington to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.

"I will take Carlos sparza"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.

"I'm going to go with Carla Esparza too. I know it's her retirement fight, but she's really, really tough to beat."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.

"I'mma go with uh Tia Tores here to come out here and win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.

"I believe Pennington is very much improved since that matchup and given that both these women are now moms most recently Carla sparza I do believe that will see Pennington a little bit better in terms of being in the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"it's a total dog or pass situation for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.

"I'm going to go with Tisha Pennington here over Carla espara you guys God I might regret that but I'll go with that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.

"I guess Esparza because she's probably going to win around."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:05 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 6 of 32 18% 19 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 1 0:55
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 78 47% 42 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 5 of 27 18% 18 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 1 0:53
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 65 50% 38 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Carla Esparza 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 6 of 32 18% 6 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 37 of 78 47% 20 of 58 8 of 9 9 of 11 24 of 63 0 of 0 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 5 of 27 18% 5 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 33 of 65 50% 19 of 48 6 of 7 8 of 10 20 of 50 0 of 0 13 of 15
2 Zhang Weili 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.

"I expect Whaley to win this fight she's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.

Zhang Weili inside the distance; finish by TKO/corner stoppage/cut
"I think Zhang Whaley beats the crap out of Esparza I think Zhang Willy finishes as far as at some point in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance for safety
"I can probably will skip the money line at minus 335... inside the distance for Zhang Wei Lee is like a Peckham price right now so that's where my my money's gonna end up in the co-main event."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'

Predicts a finish (KO/TKO or submission); odds mentioned: Weili -350, Esparza +290 at DraftKings
"I'm gonna go with Wiley Zhang to finish Carlos Esparza I mean that's what I kind of see happening"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.

Zhang inside the distance, under 4.5 rounds (+100)
"I do think that Zhang inside the distance is probably the best bet in this matchup taking her to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance
"I actually agree with you 100... I got that TKO prop... take the inside the distance it's like there's minus one tens out there the best I see is plus 120 on the chaos let's decal."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.

first round TKO
"you kind of have to go Zhang Wei Lee here"
Decision (split) (47–48, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 136 27% 38 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 133 22% 30 of 133 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
4 Carla Esparza 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:20
5 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 31 16% 5 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 37 of 136 27% 30 of 122 6 of 12 1 of 2 36 of 135 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 133 22% 15 of 108 4 of 11 11 of 14 27 of 128 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 4 of 19 21% 4 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 19 21% 2 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 22 18% 1 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 11 of 36 30% 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 9 of 32 28% 7 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Carla Esparza 6 of 28 21% 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 29 27% 3 of 22 1 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Carla Esparza 13 of 39 33% 7 of 30 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 31 16% 2 of 24 0 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.

"rose is the pick i'm gonna be rooting for carla i want carla to win but if five takedowns and 162 strikes landed didn't get wei lee the nod i just don't know what carla's gonna be able to do"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.

decision
"I like rose nominee units to win this fight I don't think she like wins every round I do think esparza is going to take off a round or two but I do think as far as picking a winner …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.

"i think it's a favorable fight for rose nominess for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.

Daniel mentions he is not betting this fight. He notes the under 4.5 rounds at +155 is interesting but does not bet it.
"I would take Rose if pick'em fight, I'd take Rose. Maybe minus 150 I'd consider, but I just don't want to lay chalk."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"so give me rose and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.

live betting Esparza if she gets early takedown
"i think rose rates the ship here gets back on track it's a very very straightforward fight for her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.

Rose Namajunas by fourth round finish, rear-naked choke
"i'm going to have to go with rose and amy eunice and i'll go over rose nami eunis by uh fourth round finish real naked choke"
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
TKO (punches) R2 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 5 of 11 45% 31 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 27 of 33 81% 170 of 194 3 of 3 100% 0 0 7:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 2 of 5 40% 24 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 13 of 15 86% 104 of 117 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:52
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 14 of 18 77% 66 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 4
Yan Xiaonan 27 of 33 81% 27 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 26 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Yan Xiaonan 13 of 15 86% 13 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 13 of 15
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Yan Xiaonan 14 of 18 77% 14 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 16
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.

Yan by close decision; would bet Yan if underdog
"i'm going to side with yon to get it done by a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.

no bet, fight goes the distance (parlay)
"i trust the the line movement that we've seen from the plus 150 to the plus 100 i think this is you know closer to a peckham type of fight and esparza will be my pick no bet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.

unanimous decision, possibly late TKO
"i think that yan zhaonan's distance game is gonna really frustrate her i think she's gonna stick to the boxing in the hands and i think carla esparza is gonna be taking some shots from really far out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.

Carla Esparza by decision (+168), Carla Esparza by submission (+800 sprinkle)
"i have to go against my heart and i gotta pick carla esparza to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.

pass, fight goes the distance (parlay)
"i think that with yon it's like she probably just stuffs more of these takedowns than not keeps the fight standing lands the more impactful shots"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Yan Xiaonan

The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.

"i'm going to go with yan zhao nan i think she's going to be too good at take down defense"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 60 55% 118 of 152 5 of 9 55% 1 0 8:54
Marina Rodriguez 0 40 of 76 52% 91 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 12 66% 49 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:21
Marina Rodriguez 0 20 of 33 60% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
2 Carla Esparza 0 7 of 19 36% 32 of 47 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:28
Marina Rodriguez 0 14 of 29 48% 43 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Carla Esparza 0 18 of 29 62% 37 of 49 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 6 of 14 42% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 33 of 60 55% 29 of 56 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 16 1 of 1 28 of 43
Marina Rodriguez 40 of 76 52% 34 of 70 0 of 0 6 of 6 15 of 38 0 of 1 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 12
Marina Rodriguez 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 25
2 Carla Esparza 7 of 19 36% 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 11
Marina Rodriguez 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 5 8 of 18 0 of 1 6 of 10
3 Carla Esparza 18 of 29 62% 15 of 26 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 20
Marina Rodriguez 6 of 14 42% 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.

Rodriguez by third round knockout; placed bet at -160
"I like rodriguez um as at the line here minus 180. um I'll tell you guys right now I did place a bet on this fight I got our minus 160 though"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.

"i think she's ready for this big test i think she's going to come out here and pass it so i'm going marina rodriguez to get the biggest win of her career over the former former champion esparza"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.

Esparza by decision (+145)
"i gotta side with the dog here you know this fight should be lined a little bit closer"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.

"I'm going to be going with Ka Espaza getting a job done even though Marina Rodriguez looked pretty good against Tisha Torres."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 45 of 103 43% 48 of 106 1 of 10 10% 0 0 0:46
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 44 of 98 44% 44 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 5 of 18 27% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 15 of 31 48% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:11
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 45 of 103 43% 34 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 7 39 of 94 5 of 8 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 44 of 98 44% 15 of 60 13 of 16 16 of 22 39 of 92 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 5 of 18 27% 3 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 9 of 28 32% 4 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 7 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 15 of 31 48% 13 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 2 14 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 26 50% 3 of 15 4 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 25 of 54 46% 18 of 46 4 of 5 3 of 3 21 of 47 4 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 22 of 44 50% 8 of 27 7 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.

"I like Asparza here just for the fact that I think she can go out here and get takedowns in a close fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.

"I'm gonna go with the underdog here man i'ma go at karate hottie I think that she's got more tricks up her sleeve"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.

Carla Esparza by decision
"I'm still leaning Carlos far as a here I'm gonna say caller does eventually grind her out"
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 44 of 80 55% 115 of 157 4 of 11 36% 0 1 7:12
Alexa Grasso 0 45 of 103 43% 103 of 169 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 18 of 36 50% 36 of 54 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Alexa Grasso 0 17 of 41 41% 33 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 18 72% 56 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:25
Alexa Grasso 0 6 of 20 30% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
3 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 1 2:16
Alexa Grasso 0 22 of 42 52% 35 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 44 of 80 55% 27 of 60 11 of 14 6 of 6 28 of 59 6 of 9 10 of 12
Alexa Grasso 45 of 103 43% 41 of 97 4 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 88 3 of 6 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 18 of 36 50% 8 of 25 7 of 8 3 of 3 13 of 29 4 of 6 1 of 1
Alexa Grasso 17 of 41 41% 15 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 1
2 Carla Esparza 13 of 18 72% 10 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 11
Alexa Grasso 6 of 20 30% 5 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Carla Esparza 13 of 26 50% 9 of 20 2 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 22 of 42 52% 21 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 35 0 of 0 7 of 7
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 25 of 51 49% 97 of 128 4 of 10 40% 0 1 5:25
Virna Jandiroba 0 17 of 37 45% 64 of 89 3 of 9 33% 0 2 3:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 12 66% 26 of 32 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:37
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 10 70% 22 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:43
2 Carla Esparza 0 9 of 20 45% 28 of 40 1 of 6 16% 0 1 0:43
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 15 46% 24 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:42
3 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 19 42% 43 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:05
Virna Jandiroba 0 3 of 12 25% 18 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 25 of 51 49% 18 of 43 6 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 8 of 12 5 of 9
Virna Jandiroba 17 of 37 45% 13 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 30 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 8 of 12 66% 4 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 1 of 1
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 10 70% 3 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 3 of 5 2 of 5
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1
3 Carla Esparza 8 of 19 42% 7 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 3
Virna Jandiroba 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0