Career Averages - Cláudia Gadelha
Career Averages - Carla Esparza
Cláudia Gadelha - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 36 of 96 | 37% | 84 of 149 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 6:46 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 74 of 170 | 43% | 133 of 234 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 53 of 72 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 51 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 26 of 78 | 33% | 27 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 29 of 56 | 51% | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Xiaonan | 36 of 96 | 37% | 29 of 84 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 88 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 74 of 170 | 43% | 54 of 143 | 15 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 58 of 149 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yan Xiaonan | 10 of 26 | 38% | 9 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 22 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Yan Xiaonan | 17 of 43 | 39% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 26 of 78 | 33% | 23 of 73 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Yan Xiaonan | 9 of 27 | 33% | 7 of 22 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 29 of 56 | 51% | 21 of 48 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 44 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Yan, citing her volume striking and power, and Gadelha's decline in wrestling and cardio. He thinks Yan's takedown defense is good and she will win a decision, possibly live betting opportunity. He notes Gadelha has been dropped before.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she is catching Cláudia Gadelha at the perfect time. He acknowledges Gadelha's grappling threat but thinks Yan can stuff takedowns and outwork her on the feet with volume and damage. Levi notes Yan's training at Alpha Male and with Sarah McMahon to improve wrestling, and he expects Yan to win a decision or possibly get a finish. He is concerned about submission but thinks Yan can avoid it.
The host likes Yan Xiaonan's pressure, power, and combinations to overwhelm Gadelha, who has cardio issues and declining takedown effectiveness. He notes Yan's training at Team Alpha Male and her ability to get back to her feet. He expects a decision or third-round TKO, and loves the -135 line.
The MMA Guru picks Yan Xiaonan to win by unanimous decision. He believes Yan will pick apart Gadelha from range with her straight punches, and that Gadelha slows down as the fight goes on. He notes Yan's high output and ability to rally in later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 84 of 210 | 40% | 92 of 218 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Angela Hill | 1 | 90 of 176 | 51% | 93 of 179 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 28 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 29 of 71 | 40% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Angela Hill | 1 | 37 of 72 | 51% | 37 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 34 of 92 | 36% | 34 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 43 of 78 | 55% | 43 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 84 of 210 | 40% | 61 of 179 | 14 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 78 of 202 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
| Angela Hill | 90 of 176 | 51% | 60 of 136 | 29 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 86 of 170 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 21 of 47 | 44% | 14 of 39 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
| Angela Hill | 10 of 26 | 38% | 4 of 16 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 29 of 71 | 40% | 22 of 62 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 37 of 72 | 51% | 25 of 58 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 67 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 34 of 92 | 36% | 25 of 78 | 5 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 43 of 78 | 55% | 31 of 62 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 43 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In this co-main event, former title challenger Gadelha (17-4, 6-4 UFC) will look to stave off the momentum of “Overkill” Hill (12-7, 7-7 UFC) at strawweight. This potentially all-action scrap will gain oversight by referee Keith Peterson, and no nonsense will be tolerated for this next fight. Gadelha starts with a low kick, as they do not bother with touching gloves, and Hill tries to angle her way in while avoiding the left hand from the Brazilian. Gadelha shoots in for takedown but cannot score it, although she does manage to land a left hand in the process. Hill is the one pressing the pace, but other than a knee on the inside, she did not land much of significance in this exchange. Gadelha jabs her way in and blocks the looping left hand counter. The former challenger goes to the body and slaps a leg kick while dodging what Hill throws her way. Hill slips in a left, but Gadelha connects with an overhand left and a right to the body. Gadelha catches Hill on the way in with a jab, while blocking the left hook from Hill again. The jab from Gadelha scores again, and the two clinch up to throw hard but Gadelha wants the body lock takedown. Gadelha presses “Overkill” to the fence, and tries to trip Hill’s leg out but cannot secure it. Gadelha drops down for a single, and Hill defends it to stand Gadelha back up. Gadelha doggedly pursues this takedown, clinging to Hill like a bad penny while sneaking the leg out. “Claudinha” manages to hit the takedown she so desperately sought, partially because she muscled the fight down to her realm. She lands in side control, and grinds an elbow on Hill’s chin. Gadelha pulls her right arm free to land a punch, although Hill is holding on tight to block the strike and try to walk up the fence. Gadelha places her knee on Hill’s stomach to get top position, and in the scramble, Hill gets to her knees and eats some short punches. Although she stands up, Gadelha is practically attached at the hip until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gadelha
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gadelha
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gadelha
Round 2
Hill begins the round with the jab, allowing Gadelha to swing with a few power strikes to back Hill off. Gadelha is able to see Hill’s punches coming, as she protects the lion’s share of them in time to block or avoid them. Three punches from Gadelha only see one land, but Hill fires back with a left straight. Another from Hill opens a cut under Gadelha’s eye. A huge right hand from Hill sends Gadelha crashing down to the ground, and Hill listens to her corner and backs off. Allowing Gadelha to stand up, an excited Hill plants a solid uppercut on Gadelha’s chin. Gadelha is wearing it now, and a forced takedown does not succeed as she takes another left in the process. Hill’s speed is playing a factor now, as she lands a one-two but gets out of danger when Gadelha wings shots back at her. Gadelha ties her up again and eats a knee on the body, but it is Hill that briefly tosses her aside. The Brazilian stands back up, but Hill is now on the offense against the fence. As Gadelha circles out and tries to load up on a left, Hill ducks out of the way and they return to the center of the cage. Gadelha swings and misses with a few power punches, and dodges Hill’s left hand to land a right of her own. Gadelha swings and scores with a heavy right hand to catch Hill, and then nails Hill with a left with equal power. Hill stuffs a takedown and works the body with a few punches, and the two start trading. Hill again targets the body with punches, while Gadelha is primarily headhunting. Hill throws a few front kicks to break up her routine, and just avoids a glancing blow from the hard-swinging Brazilian. “Overkill” catches Gadelha on the end of a left hand to possibly stumble her, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 3
Gadelha tries to start off by putting the fight where she wants it, but Hill stuffs a quick takedown and starts to slug it out. Both women stand in front of each other and trade, with Hill relying on volume while Gadelha is loading up. Hill rips to the body with a combination, and rings a left off the forehead of her opponent. Gadelha digs in a solid leg kick, but admires her work a little too long and takes a one-two. Another punch from Hill makes Gadelha check her nose briefly, and Hill follows it up with a left. Hill escapes from a cocked back left hand from the Brazilian, and stings her with a left but gets caught on the jaw with an elbow. Gadelha scores a right, and Hill jabs a few times to snap Gadelha’s head back. Gadelha chases after her to try to swing hard, and Hill avoids the hard shots while sneaking in quick straight punches. As Gadelha comes in, Hill rings her bell with a left hand, and Gadelha takes a few hops to get her balance. Hill flips up a head kick that gets blocked, and hooks a right hand. Gadelha fires right back at her and plants a left hook on Hill’s face. Hill shoves her away to get some separation, and then sticks out a jab. As Gadelha overcommits to a right hook, Hill ducks to throw a spinning back elbow, but she cannot quite land it. A few short punches have busted the nose up of Gadelha, who is now leaking from multiple places on her face. Gadelha loads up with an elbow to crack Hill, and Hill does a quick count of her teeth. We hear the 10-second clapper, and these two slug it out right until the end. Wow, what a fight. This is almost certainly going to be a close one, and win or lose, Hill's stock should definitely rise for hanging in there with a top contender.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gadelha (29-28 Gadelha)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hill (29-28 Hill)
The Official Result
Claudia Gadelha def. Angela Hill via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Cláudia Gadelha by decision, citing her wrestling and grappling advantage. He notes that Hill has improved but still gets taken down by lower-level opponents. He is worried about Gadelha's gas tank and expects Hill to win the third round on the feet, but believes Gadelha will win the first two rounds with takedowns and control. He also mentions a possible submission from Gadelha.
Daniel Levi picks Cláudia Gadelha via submission. He notes that historically Angela Hill loses when stepping up in competition, and Gadelha has good people behind her now. He expects Gadelha to take Hill down, pass guard, and submit her. He acknowledges that if Hill survives the first round, her striking volume could make things interesting, but ultimately believes Gadelha will play it smart.
The host picks Angela Hill, arguing that Gadelha has plateaued while Hill is still improving. He notes Hill's kickboxing and grappling defense, and believes she will out-strike Gadelha over three rounds for a decision win. He cites a decline in Gadelha's performance since her title fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 40 of 107 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 25 of 109 | 22% | 26 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 10 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 7 of 35 | 20% | 8 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Randa Markos | 0 | 8 of 40 | 20% | 8 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 40 of 107 | 37% | 36 of 96 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 7 | 37 of 98 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 25 of 109 | 22% | 19 of 99 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 17 of 96 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 12 of 35 | 34% | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 10 of 34 | 29% | 8 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 7 of 35 | 20% | 5 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 18 of 41 | 43% | 15 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randa Markos | 8 of 40 | 20% | 6 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Nunes | 0 | 49 of 112 | 43% | 85 of 149 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 96 of 211 | 45% | 123 of 238 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nina Nunes | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 28 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nina Nunes | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 34 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 49 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nina Nunes | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 23 of 52 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 52 of 116 | 44% | 52 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Nunes | 49 of 112 | 43% | 45 of 106 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 38 of 97 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 96 of 211 | 45% | 62 of 173 | 5 of 9 | 29 of 29 | 91 of 205 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nina Nunes | 13 of 31 | 41% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 19 of 37 | 51% | 12 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nina Nunes | 13 of 29 | 44% | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 22 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 25 of 58 | 43% | 18 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nina Nunes | 23 of 52 | 44% | 21 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 52 of 116 | 44% | 32 of 94 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 16 | 52 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 78 of 124 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 5:00 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 43 of 103 | 41% | 205 of 288 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 26 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 36 | 36% | 44 of 74 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 28 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 83 of 104 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 24 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 78 of 110 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 26 of 64 | 40% | 23 of 59 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
| Carla Esparza | 43 of 103 | 41% | 33 of 89 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 28 of 79 | 7 of 12 | 8 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 13 of 28 | 46% | 12 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
| Carla Esparza | 13 of 36 | 36% | 8 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 11 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 14 of 27 | 51% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 16 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 9 of 21 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 16 of 40 | 40% | 13 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 7 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 42 of 91 | 46% | 47 of 96 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 141 of 241 | 58% | 242 of 355 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 8:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 27 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 48 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 52 of 92 | 56% | 73 of 122 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 61 of 87 | 70% | 121 of 151 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 42 of 91 | 46% | 41 of 87 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 71 | 9 of 15 | 3 of 5 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 141 of 241 | 58% | 83 of 175 | 50 of 58 | 8 of 8 | 45 of 107 | 18 of 25 | 78 of 109 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 23 of 52 | 44% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 40 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 2 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 28 of 62 | 45% | 17 of 48 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 6 of 9 | 18 of 28 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 16 of 28 | 57% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 52 of 92 | 56% | 37 of 74 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 73 | 7 of 9 | 9 of 10 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Cláudia Gadelha | 61 of 87 | 70% | 29 of 53 | 29 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 7 | 51 of 71 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 12 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 12 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 8 of 28 | 28% | 6 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 9 of 37 | 24% | 6 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 8 of 28 | 28% | 6 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 9 of 37 | 24% | 6 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 34 of 80 | 42% | 43 of 92 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 6:25 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 46 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 10 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 11 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 22 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 5 of 27 | 18% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cláudia Gadelha | 34 of 80 | 42% | 30 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 64 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 5 |
| Cortney Casey | 22 of 68 | 32% | 10 of 49 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 10 | 14 of 54 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cláudia Gadelha | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Cortney Casey | 9 of 22 | 40% | 5 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 16 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cláudia Gadelha | 9 of 25 | 36% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 |
| Cortney Casey | 8 of 19 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cláudia Gadelha | 20 of 37 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Cortney Casey | 5 of 27 | 18% | 2 of 20 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 23 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Carla Esparza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 0 | 39 of 123 | 31% | 116 of 215 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 80 of 150 | 53% | 94 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 77 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 19 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tecia Pennington | 39 of 123 | 31% | 30 of 112 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 110 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 80 of 150 | 53% | 28 of 92 | 11 of 12 | 41 of 46 | 75 of 142 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tecia Pennington | 6 of 26 | 23% | 4 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 13 of 38 | 34% | 8 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tecia Pennington | 12 of 43 | 27% | 6 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 31 of 55 | 56% | 14 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 13 | 31 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tecia Pennington | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Carla Esparza | 36 of 57 | 63% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 30 | 34 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.
Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.
Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.
Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.
The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.
Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.
Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 0 | 6 of 32 | 18% | 19 of 50 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 5 of 27 | 18% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0:53 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 65 | 50% | 38 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang Weili | 6 of 32 | 18% | 6 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 78 | 47% | 20 of 58 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 24 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zhang Weili | 5 of 27 | 18% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 65 | 50% | 19 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Zhang Weili | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carla Esparza | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.
Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.
Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.
Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'
The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.
Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.
The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 37 of 136 | 27% | 38 of 137 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 30 of 133 | 22% | 30 of 133 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 6 of 28 | 21% | 7 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 39 | 33% | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Rose Namajunas | 0 | 5 of 31 | 16% | 5 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 37 of 136 | 27% | 30 of 122 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 36 of 135 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 30 of 133 | 22% | 15 of 108 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 128 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 4 of 19 | 21% | 4 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 19 | 21% | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 14 | 21% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 4 of 22 | 18% | 1 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 11 of 36 | 30% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 9 of 32 | 28% | 7 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Carla Esparza | 6 of 28 | 21% | 6 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 8 of 29 | 27% | 3 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 39 | 33% | 7 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rose Namajunas | 5 of 31 | 16% | 2 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.
Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.
Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.
The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.
Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.
The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 27 of 33 | 81% | 170 of 194 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 24 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 104 of 117 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 66 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 27 of 33 | 81% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 31 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 13 of 15 | 86% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 15 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 18 | 77% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.
Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.
Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.
Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.
The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 118 of 152 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 | 0 | 8:54 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 76 | 52% | 91 of 129 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 49 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 30 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 32 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 43 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 37 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 33 of 60 | 55% | 29 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 43 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 76 | 52% | 34 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 25 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 7 of 19 | 36% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 29 | 48% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 10 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 29 | 62% | 15 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 20 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.
Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.
Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 48 of 106 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 44 of 98 | 44% | 44 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 7 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 45 of 103 | 43% | 34 of 88 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 94 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 44 of 98 | 44% | 15 of 60 | 13 of 16 | 16 of 22 | 39 of 92 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 9 of 28 | 32% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 15 of 31 | 48% | 13 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 13 of 26 | 50% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 25 of 54 | 46% | 18 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 22 of 44 | 50% | 8 of 27 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.
Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.
Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 44 of 80 | 55% | 115 of 157 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 7:12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 45 of 103 | 43% | 103 of 169 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 36 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 33 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 56 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 35 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:16 |
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 35 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 44 of 80 | 55% | 27 of 60 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 28 of 59 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 12 |
| Alexa Grasso | 45 of 103 | 43% | 41 of 97 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 88 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 18 of 36 | 50% | 8 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Alexa Grasso | 17 of 41 | 41% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 18 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
| Alexa Grasso | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexa Grasso | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 97 of 128 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 5:25 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 64 of 89 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 3:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 26 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 22 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 28 of 40 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 24 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 1:42 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 43 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Esparza | 25 of 51 | 49% | 18 of 43 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 9 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 17 of 37 | 45% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 12 | 66% | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carla Esparza | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 15 | 46% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Carla Esparza | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Virna Jandiroba | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
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