Career Averages - Kamaru Usman
Career Averages - Warlley Alves
Kamaru Usman - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 41 of 99 | 41% | 137 of 243 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 12:57 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 44 of 148 | 29% | 51 of 156 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 41 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:25 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 33 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 33 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 20 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 41 of 99 | 41% | 33 of 89 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 17 of 26 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 44 of 148 | 29% | 29 of 130 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 144 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 3 of 17 | 17% | 2 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 8 of 21 | 38% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 10 of 35 | 28% | 5 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 6 of 20 | 30% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 11 of 34 | 32% | 6 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 20 of 58 | 34% | 16 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-258), Usman (+210)
Round 1
The proverbial torch is lit and in the hand of former champ Usman (20-4, 15-3 UFC), whose only losses in the UFC are to Leon Edwards twice and against Khamzat Chimaev in a middleweight match that may have been a draw. After plenty of time off to get his head right, “The Nigerian Nightmare” hoists the flame and will do his darnedest to stave off the hard-charging kickfighter Buckley (21-6, 11-4 UFC). Something dramatic might happen in the next 25 minutes, and if it does, referee Mike Beltran will be on top of it. The welterweights are not brought to the center of the cage to receive instructions, and instead do it of their own accord, going forehead to forehead. They opt not to bump fists to seal the cage. It’s on with the show. Buckley practically sprints out of his corner to get after it, fishing with jabs to set up a left. They clash heads on the way in, and Buckley hops back uncomfortably. Usman no-sells it and plods forward, looping a single right hand and shooting for a double when Buckley fails on his counter. Buckley hits his seat, and he posts off an arm to try to recover position. Usman drags him away from the fencing so he can establish himself in half guard, and he presses down with his body weight to keep the striker flat. Usman postures up to hack down with an elbow, and after striking, he immediately returns to imposing every pound of his imposing frame. Usman finds a right hand around the guard as he smothers “New Mansa,” and when Buckley sits up, he connects with another solid right. Usman drags him back down the moment Buckley is about to escape, where he makes Buckley pay for his effort with some more ground-and-pound. Usman grinds effectively with powerful punches from above, and he stacks Buckley up to gain a little more distance and increase the potency on his attacks. Usman returns to half guard, shredding Buckley’s right eyebrow open with his elbows. Usman bombards Buckley with elbows and furious punches until time expires. Buckley stands up, blood streaming down his face, and he smiles.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 2
Buckley is just as eager to get going despite around five minutes of that, as he races at Usman letting punches go. Usman keeps his guard up to parry or deflect most flying at his face. Usman kicks the body and stays out of range of the counter left, and he ducks down directly into an uppercut. The 38-year-old’s beard holds up fine, and he measures a left hand and fakes for a takedown that draws an exaggerated reaction from his opponent. Buckley plants a side kick on the midsection that makes Usman take a funny step, and he surges at the former champ to put fists on him. Usman responds with one high and one to the body, and he defends the head kick that soars his direction. Usman uses a one-two to shoot in for a speedy single, and he strips Buckley’s footing out and sets him down at the three-minute mark. Usman climbs his way to establish mount, hopping to the side to control in half guard rather than giving Buckley a chance to get out. Usman keeps at least one arm under Buckley’s leg to keep him grounded, and he pummels “New Mansa” with short but damaging strikes with any free hand or wing. Usman hacks with another elbow to open the cut back up on Buckley’s eyebrow or eyelid, and he frames off to keep pounding on the kickboxer. Usman works Buckley over from above, hopping to half guard on the other side so he can beat down Buckley with right hands and elbows. Usman further works on Buckley, causing more blood to flow until the round ends. As Buckley stands up, Usman falls off of him, but it is not from ill intent and instead a strange position that befell the two.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 3
To change things up, Buckley comes out of his corner with his hands down, positioning himself in a more karate stance. He lands a single side kick, and he charges forward with a flurry of punches but ends up bouncing his head into the former champ’s. Usman shrugs it off and pitches a head kick at him, and he slides to the side and eats a left hand. Buckley connects twice before getting on his bike, not wishing to stand still so he is vulnerable to a takedown entry. Usman level changes to draw a reaction out of him, ducking a right hand over the top. Buckley loads up with left hands, throwing Usman off-balance but not dropping him. Usman’s jab re-opens the wound on Buckley’s face once more, and he jabs a front kick to the body. Buckley stays behind a power jab, and he dodges an Usman hook to catch him with two. Usman drops down, and he takes Buckley off his feet and assumes top position. Usman is quick to rev up his ground-and-pound engine again, where he further bloodies up “New Mansa” with his ultra-effective ground strikes. Buckley surges to a knee, and Usman leans on him and knees him in the posterior a few times to discourage him from standing without protecting his face. Usman tugs him back down, and he looks irritated that he has been taken down and controlled like this. Buckley posts off his arm and is wrenched down immediately, as Usman mounts him and bombards him with punches and nasty elbows. As the elbows continue to connect, the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 4
The fighters get right back to it, with a fire lit under Buckley’s belly. He swings a head kick and several punches behind them, but Usman’s head movement and footwork is making a huge difference even at the age of 38. Buckley tries to work behind his jab, switching stances so eh can chain strikes together, and he pops Usman twice as he retreats. Buckley scores an uppercut, stuffs a takedown and eats a right on the way out. Buckley keeps his hands low as he starts talking to the former champ, goading him into reckless exchanges. One such exchange immediately presents itself, and it ends in a bump of heads. Usman does not register as if anything happened at all, and he snipes the kickboxer with a jab. Buckley tells him it was a good strike, and Usman answers with a power double. Buckley sprawls about as deep as someone can against the wall, and he smiles that he might be able to defend this deep effort. The smile turns to a grimace as Usman lifts him up and down to the ground, where he once more establishes himself in smothering yet dangerous top control. Buckley starts booing from off his back, as Usman controls him, with “The Nigerian Nightmare” shifting from one side to the other. Buckley motions to Beltran as if he will be stood up, but Usman is plenty active and has not drawn so much as a single warning for a lack of action. Buckley sits to a knee, and Usman pounds on him with a free right hand and a few elbows. Usman winds up with a power punch, and his slashing elbow concludes the fourth frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 5
As if he wants to channel his inner Leon Edwards, Buckley starts the fifth round off with a mighty head kick. Usman tanks it, unlike his fateful title loss, and he keeps marching forward. Beltran asks for the fighters to close their hands, and they proceed to jab it out. Usman goes down low for a single and then a double, and Buckley manages to break off and defend from the effort. Usman tries to change levels again, and Buckley once more stops it in its tracks. This time, Buckley strings together a few punches on the inside on the break. Usman pierces the guard with a sharp jab and fakes a single, and Buckley ignores it and gives back two power jabs of his own. “The Nigerian Nightmare” tries again for a takedown, and a third effort fails. A fourth does as well, and Buckley lets his hands fly and knocks Usman back a step. Usman whiffs with a left hand, and he dodges a big hook that comes back his way. Buckley wraps a left around the guard as he approaches awkwardly, and the two crash into one another as Buckley anticipates an Usman takedown. Usman bullies him to the wall, but he cannot keep him there. Buckley explodes out of control and starts slugging away, catching Usman with short, compact swings. Buckley releases a big left hand and plants a side kick on Usman’s chest, and scoops an uppercut that buzzes the former champ’s chin. Buckley scores with a jab and an uppercut, stinging Usman and forcing him to backpedal as he appears to be hurt. Buckley rushes at him, looping an uppercut his direction but not landing it. Buckley swings with everything he has, smacking Usman and getting tagged on the way back. The two hear the final horn blare, and immediately disengage the offense and congratulate one another for five fairly entertaining rounds likely deserving of “Fight of the Night” given the lack of competition earlier tonight.
On the post-fight interview, the victorious former champ is nearly overcome with emotion, taking a moment to gather his thoughts as he expresses gratitude towards his opponent. Usman says that he feels great and that people should “shut the front door”—paraphrased to remove profanity—about his bad his knees are. While he does not have a name on his tongue, he does state that he should be one win away from a title shot at worst. No matter who the self-proclaimed “f---ing boogeyman” fights next, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (49-46 Usman)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Usman)
The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Angelo picks Buckley because he is younger, more active, and has speed and power. He notes that Usman is aging, hasn't fought in two years, and is on a losing streak. He believes Buckley will stay a step ahead and that the UFC is using Usman to build the next generation.
Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley by third-round knockout. He believes Usman is past his prime, citing a two-year layoff, bad knees, and a washed performance in the second Edwards fight. He thinks Buckley is in his prime with power and will catch Usman's chin. He notes that a few years ago this would be a different fight, but now it's Buckley's time.
Connor picks Buckley, emphasizing that Usman's striking is built on posturing and a steady rhythm, and that Buckley's relentless pressure and power will disrupt that. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power striker and that Buckley's wrestling scrambles and durability will be key. Connor also points out that Usman's age and knee issues make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed, though he acknowledges Usman could still catch Buckley with clean shots or force him into bad wrestling exchanges.
Age and bad knees are catching up to Usman at 38. Buckley is younger and better at this moment. He will stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and find a knockout between three and a half to four rounds.
The Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, noting value on Usman but favoring Buckley's movement, output, and physicality. He predicts Buckley will get ahead early and stay ahead, finishing Usman by TKO in the fourth round. He cites Usman's long layoff, knee issues, and inability to physically dominate Buckley as key factors.
Zane picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's youth, power, pace, and relentless pressure will overwhelm the older, worn-down Usman. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power puncher like Buckley, and that Buckley's improved speed changes and physicality make him a bully at welterweight. Zane acknowledges Usman's technical advantages but thinks Buckley's hustle and stamina will carry him through, especially as Usman's knees and age have diminished his ability to maintain his own pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 58 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 107 of 143 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 16 of 17 | 94% | 61 of 66 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 2 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 41 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 34 of 54 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 36 of 66 | 54% | 27 of 52 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Kamaru Usman | 38 of 70 | 54% | 27 of 53 | 3 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Kamaru Usman | 16 of 17 | 94% | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 16 | |
| 2 | Khamzat Chimaev | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 9 of 20 | 45% | 3 of 10 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Khamzat Chimaev | 22 of 45 | 48% | 20 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kamaru Usman | 13 of 33 | 39% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-285), Usman (+230)
Round 1
Unexpectedly preserving this fight, former welterweight kingpin Usman (20-3, 15-2 UFC) will be stepping up to 185 pounds for the first time in his career in the highly anticipated co-headliner. With just 12 days to prepare, he will collide with Chimaev (12-0, 6-0 UFC), who has been out of the Octagon for over a year while at middleweight for the first time since 2020. Many questions may be answered about both men when the dust settles, and referee Jason Herzog will take the helm for the second-to-last bout of the day. Chimaev has a wild look in his eye, and even though he offers a clap of hands, Usman is having none of it. The two look for their ranges, and Chimaev races forward and looks to take the former champ down. Usman defends it by dropping to a knee, and he springs back up. Chimaev grabs him from behind and looks for a mat return, while imposing his body weight on Usman. Chimaev presses Usman down and gets both hooks in, and he starts hammering Chimaev with hammerfists. Herzog asks Usman to work, and Usman sits up but still has “Borz” on his back. Chimaev fishes for a choke and mixes in punches, and he grabs the cage a few times to maintain position. Usman stays on his hands and knees, not allowing himself to get flattened out but completely nullified from an offensive perspective. Usman looks to shimmy Chimaev off his back, although this does not work. Chimaev looks for a potential choke and busts Usman in the face with a few punches and an elbow. Usman stands up, and Chimaev completes the body triangle and starts wrapping up a rear-naked choke. Usman fights the hands to defend against the choke, and he slams Chimaev right on his head to stop the submission. Chimaev flattens Usman out momentarily, but Usman sits up and leans himself against the fencing. Chimaev wraps his arms around Usman’s head, but the choke is not there. Chimaev works with strikes from around the sides of the head, and he drags Usman to his seat when Usman looks to recover. “Borz” sits up to land a few strikes, and the dominant round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 2
The second round begins, and both men are tentative to exchange in the early going. No strikes land for the first 45 seconds, when Usman jabs the body and kicks the calf. Chimaev changes stances after the kick, and he flicks out a jab. Usman fakes for a takedown, and Chimaev partially bites but does not sell out to defend an attempt that does not come. Usman puts the ball of his foot on Chimaev’s midsection, and he blocks a high body kick that soars back his way. Usman scores another front kick, and he gets pushed back when Chimaev kicks at his knee. The crowd grows restless at the inactivity from the two middleweights, and Usman goes down a little harder for a faked takedown. Usman lands a straight right hand and pump-fakes for another takedown, and he blocks a head kick. Chimaev gets off a leg kick, and he is jabbed to the body. Usman misses on a big right hand, and he leans back as Chimaev swats at him. Another head kick is guarded from the former champ, who looks for a level change and stings Chimaev with a one-two and follows with a calf kick. Usman reaches out with a left hand, and Chimaev shoots in deep for a double that puts Usman on his back with relative ease. Usman defends by tying up the arms and neck, stopping Chimaev from advancing or doing anything. Chimaev pops his head out in the last seconds, lands one punch, and the horn tweets.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Round 3
The last round opens up, and Chimaev dives face-first for a takedown that Usman comfortably stops and scoots away. Usman picks and pokes with jabs and leg kicks, and he reaches out with a right that brushes off the beard. Usman leans down and grabs Chimaev’s leg, but he lets it go to keep Chimaev thinking about the wrestling. Chimaev lands a body kick and gets knocked back with two fists, and this leads to “Borz” racing forward with a takedown. Chimaev stands up, and Usman rifles out several jabs to the head and body. Chimaev gets stung in an exchange, and Usman tags him with more jabs and shoots for his own takedown. Chimaev appears fatigued, with his winging strikes labored, and Usman can reach him when he tries. Chimaev drops down for an ankle, and he successfully scoops Usman up and sets him down courtesy of a single. Chimaev moves into half guard, and he grinds the former champion down. Usman looks to buck and prevent Chimaev from advancing, but time is not on his side. Chimaev does little more than control, but he is heavy and keeps Usman flat until Usman furiously escapes. With 20 seconds to go, Usman is on his feet, and he misses with a one-two. Usman lands a few punches, ducks the counters, and the two let their hands go right to the bitter end. Scorecards may be all over the place, regarding the potential score of the first round and the value of striking against grappling in this round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman (29-28 Usman)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (29-28 Chimaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (30-27 Chimaev)
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Kamaru Usman via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing the circumstances: short notice for Usman, moving up in weight, travel, and a three-round fight. He thinks Usman's cardio won't benefit him and Chimaev's wrestling will be too much. He is excited to see Chimaev's takedown defense tested but believes the factors favor Chimaev.
Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first round TKO. He questions Kamaru Usman's motivation and decline, noting his age (36), injuries, and poor performance in the second Leon Edwards fight. Usman is taking the fight on short notice and moving up in weight. Brady believes Chimaev will take Usman down and finish him, as Usman has rarely been on his back and looked bad when he was.
Cody picks Usman as a dog, arguing that Chimaev has not proven himself against top competition. He points out that Chimaev struggled with Gilbert Burns, who is a former lightweight, and that Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and striking. Cody believes Usman's takedown defense will neutralize Chimaev's wrestling, and that Usman's jab and experience will carry him to victory. He also notes that Chimaev's lifestyle and lack of loyalty may affect his focus.
Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev to defeat Kamaru Usman, arguing that Chimaev is on the rise while Usman is on the decline after his title reign. He believes Chimaev's athleticism, strength, and power are superior, and that the Burns fight humbled him and made him more mature. He notes Usman's cardio and durability but questions his knees and motivation, suggesting Usman is cashing out. Daniel expects Chimaev to show he is the next generation and win, possibly by finishing Usman early or outworking him.
James did not make a pick for this fight. He discussed the fight post-fact, noting that Chimaev dominated round one with a 10-8 but gassed out, and that Usman won rounds two and three on some scorecards. He expressed that Chimaev is beatable if he doesn't finish early, but did not state a pre-fight pick.
Usman is a former champion with high-level cardio, great wrestling, and improving striking. Despite short notice, he has been active and can stop Chimaev's takedowns, push the pace, and use forward pressure. Chimaev has question marks about cardio and activity. Expects Usman to win by decision, possibly with a third-round sprinkle.
Paul picks Chimaev, noting that Chimaev has been preparing for a big Paulo Costa and has had time to put on size for middleweight, while Usman is coming on short notice and hasn't added muscle. He believes Chimaev can use his wrestling and reach advantage, and questions Usman's durability after recent KO losses. Paul thinks Chimaev cruises here.
The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev by first-round TKO. He argues that Usman is used to a physicality advantage and has bad knees, and that Chimaev will walk him down and land a big power shot. He notes that Colby Covington was rocking Usman and that Chimaev is more dangerous on the feet. He also points out that Usman has no power off his back foot and no slickness, while Chimaev has close reach and will push him back.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 120 of 161 | 74% | 123 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 87 of 205 | 42% | 113 of 232 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 5:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 20 of 26 | 76% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 13 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 23 of 26 | 88% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 24 of 50 | 48% | 32 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 24 of 32 | 75% | 25 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 22 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 26 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 15 of 38 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 29 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 31 of 56 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 120 of 161 | 74% | 34 of 69 | 36 of 39 | 50 of 53 | 111 of 150 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 87 of 205 | 42% | 57 of 163 | 24 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 65 of 177 | 21 of 27 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 20 of 26 | 76% | 5 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 12 of 42 | 28% | 5 of 32 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 23 of 26 | 88% | 9 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 22 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 24 of 50 | 48% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 34 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 24 of 32 | 75% | 2 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 15 | 24 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 17 of 32 | 53% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 25 of 41 | 60% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 13 | 25 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 14 of 37 | 37% | 7 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 28 of 36 | 77% | 9 of 16 | 12 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 28 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 20 of 44 | 45% | 17 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 36 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Usman because he dominated the vast majority of the previous fight and has not lost since 2013. He thinks the first round was a fluke and Usman will wrestle and control the fight. He is not betting because of the knockout loss but believes Usman wins.
Big Brady picks Usman but with hesitation, noting he was clearly winning the second fight before the head kick. He lists concerns: Usman's age (35), injuries, travel to London, and the knockout loss. He thinks Edwards' path is a finish, while Usman can win rounds via wrestling and pressure. He predicts a decision win but will not bet this fight due to a bad feeling.
Cody picks Usman based on the belief that Usman was the better fighter in the first two fights and can make corrections after the knockout loss. He compares it to GSP after the Serra loss and Cain after the JDS loss, arguing that great champions bounce back. He notes Edwards is dangerous but thinks Usman will wrestle heavily and win by decision, as he doesn't see a finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is unappealing and prefers Usman by decision prop.
Connor believes Usman's pressure is the key to winning. He notes that Edwards is pathologically pressureable and retreats in straight lines, putting himself against the cage. While Usman has become less aggressive under Whitman, Connor thinks he can revert to pressuring Edwards, who has never shown the ability to hold the center of the cage consistently. Connor also points out that Edwards' evasive footwork is poor and his clinch game is neutralized by Usman's strength. He concludes that if Usman commits to pressure, Edwards has no escape.
Jacob is extremely confident in Edwards, having placed a $1,000 bet on him at +205. He believes Edwards was hampered by altitude in the first fight and still found the knockout. He thinks Usman's confidence is shattered after being knocked out cold and that Edwards will dominate in front of the home crowd.
Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and cardio, and he was winning the second fight before getting caught. Edwards is a great striker but has defensive grappling issues. Usman should lean on his wrestling and avoid striking exchanges, grinding out a decision. The line is seen as a gift given Usman's proven ability.
Paul picks Edwards, citing the UK home advantage and potential hometown scoring. He notes Edwards had success in round one of the last fight (takedown, mount, back control) and is four years younger. He thinks this could be the end of Usman's elite run. He likes the plus money value and says he hasn't bet it yet but is a buyer at north of +200.
The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards to win by decision, despite a history of picking main events wrong. He argues that altitude affected Edwards in the first fight, while Usman trains at elevation. Edwards dominated round one when both were fresh, and Usman's glove grab saved him from a choke. Usman is coming off a brutal KO loss, is older, and had a short camp with a hand injury. Edwards is entering his prime and has confidence. He predicts a 48-47 decision for Edwards.
Zane agrees with Connor that Usman should pressure Edwards. He notes that Edwards has never broken 100 significant strikes in a five-round fight and tends to fight down to his competition. Zane highlights that Usman has a history of high output even with wrestling, while Edwards fights in bursts. He thinks the psychological adjustment for Edwards to stand his ground is huge and possibly impossible. Zane also mentions that Usman's wrestling and clinch work will be decisive, as Edwards cannot match him there.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 83 of 135 | 61% | 189 of 247 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 10:36 |
| Kamaru Usman | 1 | 55 of 75 | 73% | 64 of 85 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 2:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 36 of 39 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 13 of 13 | 100% | 17 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 47 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 38 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:23 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 22 of 30 | 73% | 54 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Kamaru Usman | 1 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 83 of 135 | 61% | 61 of 109 | 17 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 46 of 85 | 15 of 22 | 22 of 28 |
| Kamaru Usman | 55 of 75 | 73% | 20 of 38 | 22 of 24 | 13 of 13 | 42 of 62 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 6 of 7 | 85% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Kamaru Usman | 13 of 13 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 36 of 65 | 55% | 25 of 52 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 49 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 10 |
| Kamaru Usman | 20 of 28 | 71% | 7 of 15 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Leon Edwards | 10 of 17 | 58% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 5 |
| Kamaru Usman | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Leon Edwards | 22 of 30 | 73% | 18 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 9 |
| Kamaru Usman | 6 of 10 | 60% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Leon Edwards | 9 of 16 | 56% | 4 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamaru Usman | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kamaru Usman to defeat Leon Edwards in their rematch. He notes that Usman is on track to become the greatest welterweight of all time, with technical striking and power, as seen in his knockout over Masvidal. Angelo points out that Usman already beat Edwards in 2015 with six takedowns and 11 minutes of control time, and believes Usman can win anywhere. He also mentions that Edwards struggled against Nate Diaz, getting outstruck and needing takedowns to secure the win. Angelo placed a moneyline bet on Usman at -335 and expects the line to move further.
Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman. He acknowledges that Leon Edwards is the better striker at range, but Usman has improved his striking with power and a great jab. Usman is a smart fighter who will use his wrestling and pressure, taking Edwards down and grinding on him for 25 minutes. Brady expects Usman to win by decision, though he notes a finish is possible given Usman's recent power. He respects Edwards but believes Usman's game plan and skills will prevail.
Cody picks Usman, emphasizing his stand-up improvement under Trevor Whitman, his wrestling, and the pressure he brings. He questions Edwards' resume and his ability to handle pressure, noting that Edwards has struggled in later rounds against lesser competition. He thinks Usman could knock him out but expects a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win the rematch. He emphasizes Usman's superior pace and output, noting that Usman's output is almost double Edwards'. He believes Usman's top control will allow him to bank rounds by holding Edwards down. Levi acknowledges Edwards' paths to victory—slowing the pace and sniping Usman as he closes distance—but ultimately thinks this is a bad time to bet against Usman. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he still favors Usman.
Usman's wrestling, cardio, and improving striking should overwhelm Edwards, who was nearly finished by Nate Diaz. The host expects Usman to grapple heavily and possibly finish late. He likes Usman round 4-5 or decision at -155 as a better bet than the moneyline. He includes Usman in a four-leg parlay.
Paul picks Usman to win, citing his cardio advantage from training in Denver, his pressure and wrestling, and the ability to slow down Edwards. He notes the -400 line is too steep but still sees Usman as the winner. He mentions he might look for underdog value elsewhere but officially picks Usman.
The Guru predicts Leon Edwards wins via 49-46 unanimous decision, with two judges scoring it 49-46 and one judge giving it 48-47 to Usman. He envisions Edwards landing effective leg kicks, body kicks, and jabs, cutting Usman with an elbow in round one. He sees Edwards rocking Usman with a head kick in round two and an uppercut-left hook combo in round three. However, he acknowledges Edwards slows down in rounds four and five, with Usman taking him down and landing punches, but believes Edwards clearly won rounds one, two, and three.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 2 | 123 of 293 | 41% | 158 of 336 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 107 of 281 | 38% | 119 of 298 | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 22 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 13 of 47 | 27% | 13 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 2 | 36 of 71 | 50% | 50 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 23 of 59 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 24 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 33 of 77 | 42% | 38 of 83 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 123 of 293 | 41% | 80 of 241 | 41 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 107 of 274 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 12 |
| Colby Covington | 107 of 281 | 38% | 79 of 242 | 23 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 101 of 274 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Colby Covington | 13 of 47 | 27% | 8 of 37 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 36 of 71 | 50% | 19 of 51 | 16 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 |
| Colby Covington | 19 of 47 | 40% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 23 of 58 | 39% | 18 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Colby Covington | 21 of 56 | 37% | 15 of 48 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 23 of 70 | 32% | 17 of 64 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Colby Covington | 33 of 77 | 42% | 28 of 71 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 24 of 51 | 47% | 14 of 40 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Colby Covington | 21 of 54 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kamaru Usman, citing his development of knockout power, improved striking, and proven ability to win wars. He notes that the first fight was competitive and that Usman has since shown he can come back from being dropped. He believes Covington cannot win by stoppage and that Usman's power is a constant threat. He thinks the odds are too wide but still picks Usman.
Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Usman's improved striking power, as seen in his knockouts of Burns and Masvidal, while Covington is a decision fighter without power. Brady thinks Covington's volume will be competitive early, but Usman's power and technical striking will take over as the fight goes on. He expects a similar fight to the first, but with Usman finishing Covington late.
Cody thinks the line is wrong but agrees Usman should win. He notes Covington's pace and durability but believes Usman's cardio and confidence grow as the fight goes on, pulling away late. He expects a close fight and suggests live betting Covington if the line moves.
Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to defend his belt, citing that Usman is slightly better everywhere and that the first fight was a classic war. He notes that Usman has improved his striking and has knockout power, but acknowledges Covington's cardio and heart. Levi is not laying -350 but believes Usman will be slightly ahead and win a close decision. He also mentions that Covington has been training at MMA Masters and may have improved, but still favors Usman.
Jacob picks Colby Covington, believing he will make adjustments and use his wrestling and volume to win a razor-thin decision. He thinks Covington needs to trust his cardio, stay in Usman's face, and avoid loading up on power shots. He notes that Covington was winning the first fight on his scorecard. He has a parlay with Covington and Chandler.
The host picks Usman by fourth-round TKO, citing his power and improvements. He thinks the fight will be close but Usman's power is the difference. He considers the over 3.5 rounds and Usman by KO at +180.
Paul believes Usman wins about 70-75% of the time, citing Usman's improvements with Whitman, knockout of Masvidal, and durability. He thinks the line is close to accurate but sees value on Covington at plus money. He bet over 3.5 rounds at -135, expecting a competitive fight that goes late.
The Guru picks Kamaru Usman by fourth-round KO, predicting he will target Covington's body early, exploiting a weakness found in their first fight. He notes Usman's activity and mental edge from the previous win, while Covington has been inactive. The Guru expects Covington to win the first round but Usman to take over with body shots and eventually finish with a big right hand and ground strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 1 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 32 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 31 of 52 | 59% | 56 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 25 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 48 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 1 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 21 of 40 | 52% | 15 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 31 of 52 | 59% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 15 | 27 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 14 of 30 | 46% | 8 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 23 of 42 | 54% | 12 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 8 of 10 | 80% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo relays Glover Teixeira's pick of Masvidal, noting that with a full camp Masvidal has takedown defense and striking edge. He agrees with the logic, mentioning Glover's ties to American Top Team and his training with Masvidal. Angelo seems to endorse the pick, calling it good insight.
Big Brady picks Usman to win a comfortable decision. He expects Usman to implement his game plan of takedowns, cage control, and foot stomps, grinding out Masvidal. He notes Masvidal has power but Usman has never been KO'd and has excellent takedown defense. He considers Usman a safe parlay piece.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Usman's wrestling and grinding style. He notes Masvidal's age (36) and journeyman status, and that Usman's jab and clinch work will wear him down. He sees a similar outcome to the first fight, with Usman winning by decision. He mentions the -425 price is in line with an 80% win rate and that Usman by decision is a likely prop.
Daniel picks Kamaru Usman to retain his belt, expecting him to take over in the later rounds as Masvidal fades. He acknowledges Masvidal's improved conditioning with a full camp and his one-punch KO power, but believes Usman's work rate and pressure will be too much. He notes the odds are wide and calls it a dog or pass situation from a betting perspective.
I think Usman will repeat his performance from the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using foot stomps, and controlling the pace. Masvidal is durable and hasn't been finished in 12 years, so a decision is likely. Usman's cardio and wrestling are superior. I like Usman by decision at -130, which improves the moneyline odds.
Paul believes Usman will replicate the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using his wrestling and jab to control the fight. He notes Masvidal's durability and puncher's chance but sees Usman as the superior technician. He expects a decision win, similar to the first fight, and thinks the -425 price is fair but not a value bet.
The MMA Guru picks Kamaru Usman by decision. He notes that Usman had a full camp for Masvidal this time, unlike the short-notice first fight, and that Usman's striking has improved under Trevor Whitman. He believes Usman's grappling is too good and that Masvidal hasn't made significant improvements. He predicts Usman will win with a possible 10-8 round, though Masvidal may take the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 2 | 83 of 136 | 61% | 93 of 149 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 45 of 108 | 41% | 55 of 124 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 22 of 56 | 39% | 32 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 1 | 39 of 65 | 60% | 40 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 1 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 83 of 136 | 61% | 56 of 105 | 11 of 15 | 16 of 16 | 54 of 100 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 32 |
| Gilbert Burns | 45 of 108 | 41% | 18 of 75 | 13 of 14 | 14 of 19 | 44 of 104 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 31 of 53 | 58% | 10 of 31 | 8 of 9 | 13 of 13 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 16 |
| Gilbert Burns | 22 of 56 | 39% | 12 of 43 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 21 of 52 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 39 of 65 | 60% | 33 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 39 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 21 of 50 | 42% | 6 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 12 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 13 of 18 | 72% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 |
| Gilbert Burns | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The welterweight championship will go to the winner of the UFC 258 headliner, as “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (17-1, 12-0 UFC) tries to make it 13 wins in 13 appearances against the exceptionally dangerous “Durinho” Burns (19-3, 12-3 UFC). This rare high-stakes tilt between teammates will draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, and surprisingly, there is no glove touch between the two as they share a very intense stare down. Burns rushes in with a home run right hand, and Usman sees it coming and bats it away. Burns loads up on a few leg kicks, and lets go with a heavy body kick. Burns nails Usman with a huge right hand, and Usman drops to a knee. Usman recovers, get stung with an overhand right again, and he is still hurt. Usman fires back, and he clips Burns, but the Brazilian is ready to keep throwing. Burns lets loose a head kick that Usman eats flush, and he falls to his back. Usman does not oblige him by jumping into the submission magician’s guard, and instead stands above and kicks at Burns’ thigh. Burns threatens with upkicks and straight kicks to the knee, and the two are stalled out in this kicking situation. Usman picks up Burns’ leg and scores a series of thudding kicks to the thigh. Usman dives down to land a flush right hand, and Burns’ confident face shifts to one of concern. When Burns springs up, he greets Usman with a knee on the chin. Usman reaches out with a jab, and he lands two more while Burns comes up short with a few of his own. Burns stings the champ with a left hand, and Usman reacts every time he takes one. Usman hacks at the leg with a kick, and Burns gives him one back. Usman drops in a body kick and a low kick, and the two trade these low strikes. Burns gets off a right hand over the top, and Usman takes it flush and lands a few stern jabs. The Brazilian lets fly a head kick, and shoots in for a takedown after his leg lands. Usman pushes him away and blocks a subsequent head kick. Burns connects with a right hand, and a few strikes follow suit in a strong combination from Burns. Usman fires back, and when the horn sounds, the two welterweights smile at one another before bumping fists.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
Burns marches out of his corner to throw bombs, and Usman absorbs a few punches and stumbles as he walks back. Usman tries to recover some ground with several jabs, and he steps out of the way of a leg kick. A piston-like jab finds its home on Burns’ jaw, and the Brazilian retaliates with a head kick. Usman keeps sticking out the jab, allowing Burns to kick his lead leg out. Usman keeps focused landing the jab practically at will, and Burns diversifies his striking game with body kicks, leg kicks, long punches and other strikes that reach the target. Usman stays composed with repeated jabs, and Burns hurts him with an overhand right. Usman fires back with a right hand that is not quite as substantial. Burns rushes forward with a triple jab, and he gets jabbed a few times to break up a heavy combination. Usman winds up with a monster right hand, and Burns drops to a knee. “Durinho” is hurt badly, and Usman drills him with a few more punches as Burns falls against the fence. Usman stuffs a takedown to jab up Burns’ face, and he follows the jabs with several overhand rights that do more damage. Burns’ nose is marked up, and he is resorting to throwing haymakers while Usman marches him down and touches him with the jab. Burns swings with a big right hand, and Usman blocks it only to return fire with a leg kick. Burns successfully lands a pair of punches, and a retaliatory jab from Usman drops Burns to the canvas. Usman tells Burns to stand up, and Dean allows him to do so. Burns, light on his feet, kicks the leg as he circles on the outside. Usman keeps landing jabs, and he eats a pair of big punches to roll with them and land his own strikes. Usman slaps a loud leg kick home, and Burns ducks a jab to attempt a takedown. As Usman lands a few more jabs, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 3
Burns takes the center of the cage to begin the round, reaching out with long punches and a leg kick. Usman fires off a straight jab from the southpaw stance, and Burns crashes down to the ground hard. Dean rushes in to nearly stop the fight, and the champ leaps down to deliver some nasty ground-and-pound to try to finish the job. Burns rolls through it as he keeps taking punishment, but Usman does not let up. As Burns falls to his back, he is hurt and in a bad way, and “The Nigerian Nightmare” keeps pouring it on. Punch after devastating punch crashes into Burns’ face, and Dean has seen enough as Burns is no longer intelligently defending himself. Usman confidently strides in front of the camera and asks, “Who is taking what from who?” The champ is now a perfect 13-0 inside the Octagon, tying the active UFC win streak record with current lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov. What a performance for the champion, who overcame perhaps the stiffest adversity of his UFC career to record an incredibly impressive victory. After the official decision, the two friends and training partners share a long embrace, as Burns lets loose all of his emotions inside the cage. With UFC 258 in the books, the UFC will carry on next week with a Fight Night card in a long string of events until the end of March.
The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Gilbert Burns R3 0:34 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision. He believes Usman has more paths to victory, including controlling the fight against the cage and using his wrestling. He notes that Burns' level of competition is lower and that Usman's takedown defense is perfect. He thinks Burns' only path is a submission, but Usman hasn't been submitted in over a decade. He expects a boring fight but a clear win for Usman.
Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision, citing Usman's relentless work rate and output. He notes that Usman lands far more strikes than Burns (e.g., 175 vs Colby, 130 vs RDA) and questions Burns' ability to maintain pace over five rounds. He acknowledges Burns' power and submission threat but believes Usman's pressure and cardio will wear him down. He also mentions the former teammate dynamic and that Burns must have fight-changing moments to win.
The host believes Usman is the better fighter with superior wrestling, pace, pressure, and strength. He notes that Burns' impressive run includes wins over an aging Tyron Woodley and a past-prime Demian Maia, and that Burns has never faced pressure like Usman's. He expects Usman to drown Burns in the later rounds with his cardio and clinch work, predicting a decision victory.
The Guru picks Gilbert Burns as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight that should not have such wide odds. He believes Burns has better stand-up and grappling technique, dangerous knockout power, and the advantage of training with Usman's former teammates at Sanford MMA who know his weaknesses. He also notes Usman's recent broken nose and recovery issues. He predicts Burns will catch Usman in an exchange and win by TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 94 of 151 | 62% | 263 of 341 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 16:38 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 66 of 125 | 52% | 88 of 157 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 27 of 32 | 84% | 94 of 107 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 20 of 32 | 62% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 46 of 61 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 75 of 90 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:37 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 23 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 94 of 151 | 62% | 43 of 96 | 49 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 86 | 39 of 49 | 13 of 16 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 66 of 125 | 52% | 23 of 69 | 29 of 39 | 14 of 17 | 38 of 90 | 27 of 34 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 18 of 40 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 30 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 24 of 43 | 55% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 32 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 27 of 32 | 84% | 10 of 15 | 17 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 20 of 32 | 62% | 5 of 16 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 21 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 12 of 19 | 63% | 2 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 23 of 31 | 74% | 9 of 15 | 13 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 14 | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 6 of 15 | 40% | 2 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 12 of 21 | 57% | 7 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
| Jorge Masvidal | 4 of 16 | 25% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman by comfortable decision, citing Usman's wrestling and takedowns as the key. He notes Masvidal has been taken down often and Usman is a smart fighter who won't stand and trade. He thinks the line should be wider and Masvidal's only chance is a knockout off his back, which is unlikely.
Daniel Levi leans toward Kamaru Usman, citing his full camp, size, wrestling, and cardio. He expects Usman to use a clinch-heavy, grinding game plan to wear down Masvidal. However, he acknowledges Masvidal's momentum and power, and says he wouldn't be surprised by an upset. He picks Usman by decision, but as a fan he roots for Masvidal.
Usman is a nightmare matchup for Masvidal with his relentless pace, pressure, cardio, and wrestling. Masvidal's only chance is a Hail Mary strike, but Usman's striking is good enough to close the distance and implement his grappling. The line at -225 is great value; Usman should dominate and win by decision. This is the lock of the night.
The Guru is confident Usman wins, predicting he will maul Masvidal. He notes that Masvidal has a 25% chance of landing something big in the first round but doesn't see it happening. He emphasizes Usman's size, wrestling, and the fact that Masvidal is taking the fight on short notice.
Warlley Alves - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 98 of 168 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 11:56 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 30 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 48 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 20 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 22 of 44 | 50% | 15 of 32 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 15 |
| Warlley Alves | 16 of 38 | 42% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Warlley Alves | 8 of 24 | 33% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 |
| Warlley Alves | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Warlley Alves | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gatto (-340), Vidal (+270)
Round 1
Two middleweights with finish rates over 70% collide in this next showing. The momentum is not particularly great for these two fighters, as Magomedov (25-6-1, 1-2 UFC) has dropped two in a row albeit to elite competition, while Alves (14-7, 8-7 UFC) is on a three-fight skid with his last victory in 2021. One man’s fortunes will turn around, barring something unusual, and referee Dan Miragliotta will be the first to know. There is a quick glove touch, and Magomedov walks forward, chambering his rear leg. Magomedov leans in, and Alves lets his hands fly and knocks Magomedov from one side of the cage to the other. Alves gives chase, and Magomedov drags him down to the floor. Alves stands up, and then lowers himself to a knee to prevent from taking knees to the dome. Alves powers his way back upright again, and Magomedov knees him in the side. Alves fights his way out of the tie-up, and he escapes a looping left hand. Alves surges into action, leaping at the Russian with a knee. Magomedov bounces off the cage wall and pushes out a front kick, and the two get sucked into a vicious brawl where Magomedov lands flush with two left hands that rock Alves. Alves backs off, and a jab from Magomedov hurts him a bit more. Alves scoots away, hopping on one foot to the other to shake out any cobwebs, and he throws so hard that he spins around. Magomedov takes advantage of this by dragging Alves down from behind, and he allows Alves to spin so he can climb into half guard and drop down an elbow. Alves bucks and kicks, sitting up and turning to his side. Magomedov pushes Alves back over and elbows him in the face, and he thumps up the side a few times with his fist for good measure. Alves works his way back to the wall, and Magomedov steps into three-quarter mount to pin Alves down and do some damage. Alves still manages to sit up, and Magomedov is on top of him smacking him with his free right hand. Alves muscles his way back up to his feet and goes after Magomedov, firing off a body kick and a right hand to the same target. Magomedov shoots for a takedown, and Alves immediately defends with a guillotine choke. Magomedov tosses the submission aside and assumes top position, but the Brazilian explodes to get into a better position. A scramble results in a north-south take for Magomedov, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to engage, and Magomedov is once more the aggressor as he flirts with a front kick. Alves kicks out his front leg and swarms with flailing fists, and he closes the distance and bullies Magomedov to the wall with a clinch. Magomedov works his way into a takedown effort, dragging Alves to the floor and setting up an arm-triangle choke in a hurry. Alves turns to the proper side and back to defend it, and Magomedov does not mind as he resides in half guard landing punches. Magomedov claims full mount with ease, flattening Alves out and smacking him from both sides of the head. Magomedov tries for another arm-triangle choke, and Alves explodes to break up the setup. Alves sits up, and he looks for a sweep but cannot get the Russian off of him. Magomedov returns to full mount as Alves bucks and twists, and he slashes Alves with an elbow that rips his cheek wide open. Blood pools in Alves’ eyes as he quickly transforms into a 1980s horror movie and Magomedov intentionally moves back to half guard to keep the Brazilian pinned. Alves tries to time bursts of energy to escape, sitting up and shifting in a certain way, even going after a guillotine, but Magomedov laughs it off and holds him down, bludgeoning the veteran to the bell. Alves paws at his face to assess the damage, and appears deflated at how that last round transpired.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 3
The cutperson did great work between rounds, as the inch-wide cut on Alves’ cheek is not leaking as the last round begins. Alves offers a glove touch and decides to go after a hug instead, and Magomedov reluctantly obliges him. When they start fighting, Magomedov sends Alves flying with a front kick. Alves recovers and surges into action, swinging his way into action and blasting Magomedov in the body. Magomedov bends over, possibly hurt from the shin to the liver, and he shoots for a takedown that he lands with relative ease. Magomedov takes the back, and he transitions into an arm-triangle choke. Alves escapes at the right moment to get up, only for Magomedov to hit a clean mat return with a double to put Alves back on his seat. Alves swings down an elbow to the side of the head, and he keeps his gaze trained on the big screen to assess his position and observe how much time is on the clock—it reads about 2:45 as he lingers on it, despite Magomedov striking him every so often. Magomedov climbs into mount again, and Alves bucks and rolls over, only to give up his back. Magomedov wraps one arm around the jaw of his opponent for a possible rear-naked choke or arm-triangle setup, and when Alves turns, he finds himself having to fight off a rear-naked choke after all. Magomedov lets it go when Alves shifts his hips, and he follows a fatiguing Alves around to remain on top and in mount. Magomedov sits up and drills the Brazilian with a merciless elbow, and Alves sits there for a moment to get his bearings after the concussive blow. Alves sits up and snatches up a desperation guillotine choke, and Magomedov is not remotely concerned about the choke. The Russian pops his head out, and fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov (30-27 Magomedov)
The Official Result
Abusupiyan Magomedov def. Warlley Alves via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.
Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.
Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.
Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ikram Aliskerov | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ikram Aliskerov | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ikram Aliskerov | 26 of 36 | 72% | 20 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 12 of 16 | 75% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ikram Aliskerov | 26 of 36 | 72% | 20 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 12 of 16 | 75% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aliskerov (-535), Alves (+410)
Round 1
Getting a new opponent on short notice, surging Dagestan native Aliskerov (14-1, 1-0 UFC) closes as the heaviest betting favorite on the card around -650 as he takes on company staple Alves (14-6, 8-6 UFC). Winner of the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil,” Alves moves back up that weight class of middleweight for this late test, and he does not mind the odds. Thankful to remain on this card, Aliskerov offers a glove touch to his new foe, and it is accepted. Referee Lukasz Bosacki is ready for what comes next. Aliskerov coolly walks forward, with a front kick to keep Alves from coming up on him. Alves slams a few kicks on the inside of the Russian’s lead leg, and Aliskerov tries to check one and gets knocked back with a pair of punches. Aliskerov swings back and misses, and Alves is on him and delivers one more hefty kick on the same spot of the leg. Both men throw hard punches, and Aliskerov checks another kick. Alves swarms forward but is out of arm’s reach, and Aliskerov reaches him with a right hand and staggers him with a jab. Aliskerov confidently leaps forward with a knee up the middle, and he knows Alves is in big trouble. Aliskerov unloads a flurry of fists into the chin, and Alves gets rocked and rocked again as he is barely able to stay on his feet. One particularly nasty uppercut separates Alves from his senses, and he collapses to the mat, totally defeated. Aliskerov continues punching right until Bosacki pulls him off, and he walks off to celebrate his handiwork.
The Official Result
Ikram Aliskerov def. Warlley Alves R1 2:07 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is confident in Ikram Aliskerov, noting his wrestling pressure and that he was preparing for a good striker originally. He thinks Alves has cardio issues and is on short notice. He expects Ikram to avoid a slugfest and control the fight with wrestling. He has Ikram in parlays.
Big Brady picks Ikram Aliskerov to win by second round knockout. He notes that Warlley Alves is coming up a weight class on short notice, has questionable cardio, and has been finished in the second round multiple times. Aliskerov is a heavy favorite and Brady expects him to overwhelm Alves as the fight extends.
Cody picks Aliskerov, highlighting that Alves is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He notes that Aliskerov has good wrestling and striking, and that Alves has been submitted and out-struck in recent fights. Cody believes Aliskerov will take Alves down and control him, leading to a finish or clear decision. He also mentions that Alves is giving up size and reach.
Daniel picks Ikram Aliskerov to win, noting his dominant finishes and wrestling, but acknowledges that Aliskerov went to a split decision with a low-level opponent, suggesting he might be slightly overrated. He describes Warlley Alves as a talented flake who can beat anyone or lose to anyone, and notes that Alves has fraud-checked prospects before. Daniel says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and that picking a -550 favorite is obvious, but he wouldn't be surprised if Alves pulls an upset.
Aliskerov is a big fan, impressed with his wrestling and improving hands. He can shut down Alves' kicking game by taking the fight to the ground, grinding him out, and doing damage from top position. Alves has cardio issues and slows down, so Aliskerov can find a TKO in the second or third round.
Paul picks Aliskerov, noting that Alves is on a two-fight losing streak, has poor cardio, and is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. Aliskerov is a natural middleweight with a full camp, while Alves is moving up on short notice. Paul expects Aliskerov to out-volume Alves and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish or dominant decision.
The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov, though he is not fully sold on him. He notes Aliskerov has good grappling and striking, and is in his prime with a full camp. He criticizes Aliskerov's split decision with Chad Hanam at Brave FC. He thinks Alves has taken too much damage and hasn't been active, so Aliskerov should win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 66 of 144 | 45% | 75 of 153 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 119 of 248 | 47% | 167 of 298 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 20 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 52 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 30 of 72 | 41% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 53 of 101 | 52% | 64 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 66 of 144 | 45% | 45 of 117 | 7 of 12 | 14 of 15 | 62 of 138 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 119 of 248 | 47% | 75 of 195 | 35 of 41 | 9 of 12 | 86 of 212 | 32 of 35 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 35 | 51% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 35 of 74 | 47% | 19 of 51 | 13 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 20 of 58 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 37 | 48% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 31 of 73 | 42% | 22 of 62 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 67 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 30 of 72 | 41% | 27 of 66 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 53 of 101 | 52% | 34 of 82 | 17 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 87 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alves (-125), Dalby (+105)
Round 1
Welterweights take center stage as the proceedings keep moving, with TUF Brazil 3 middleweight winner Alves (14-5, 8-5 UFC) repping his home country against Denmark’s Dalby (20-4-1, 2 NC; 4-3-1, 1 NC UFC). The third man inside the Octagon for this interesting stylistic clash will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks them in as Alves tries to offer a glove touch but is not accepted. Alves absorbs a low kick and immediately kicks into high gear, swarming the Dane with punches and a couple low kicks back. Dalby strikes back, and Alves loses his balance from the middle of the cage to the wall, but he is not hurt. When Dalby reaches him, Alves grabs him and ties him up, and he uses tight chest pressure to tire his man out. Dalby spins him around and grinds him back, with short knees to the thigh and body as the crowd grows restless less than two minutes in. Alves boxes the ears and jumps up to rip a knee to the body, and this allows him to get enough space to separate. The Brazilian strikes with a kick to the body, and he kicks low twice in the midst of a Dalby combination. Dalby returns fire with a low kick, and he wipes his eye as he appears to have been swiped with a finger. Alves offers an apologetic hand instead of lashing out, and Dalby motions that he is fine and they get back to it. They trade heavy kicks, and Alves’ landing to the body connect with audible thuds. A clack of heads opens a cut on the corner of Dalby’s right eye, but he pays it no mind as he pushes off and walks Alves down. They both throw hands at the same time, leading to a clinch. Dalby sprints in the clinch to push Alves all the way across the cage into the wall, and the crowd lets him have it. Dalby squeezes his foe on the cage wall, even landing a short foot stomp, as Alves smacks him upside the head with short punches. Dalby breaks off with an elbow that surprises Alves, and Alves leaps forward only to get countered with a left hook. Dalby scores a one-two and a few punches, and the horn echoes through the building.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 2
Alves lands first with a front kick, and he kicks Dalby’s lead leg to follow it. Dalby replies with his own low kick, and they close the distance towards one another and bump heads again. Alves rushes in to throw bombs, and he uses his forward momentum to change levels and drop down for a single-leg takedown. When they awkwardly hit the mat in the scramble, Dalby falls to his back in search of a triangle choke. The Brazilian shucks it off and claims top position, and he holds on from on top without landing much of note. As they stay pinned to the floor, Dalby explodes out of nowhere to return to his feet, and a potential Alves guillotine choke setup is not there to be had. Dalby works Alves over with an elbow, body shots, knees and a few punches, before tying him up against and pushing him to the wire. As Dalby grinds, the crowd whistles and boos the control from the Danish fighter. Alves breaks away, and he lumbers forward to wrap a right hand around the guard. Dalby springs away and kicks low, he connects with a solid elbow on the jaw. They smash one another in the face with right hands, and neither man appears to be the worse for wear after the fierce exchange. Dalby kicks high a few times, and Alves loads up on a right hand and spins with a back fist that careens off the top of the head. Alves blocks a right hand but cannot defend against a side kick to the breadbasket, although he slips an overhand right to drill Dalby with a right hand. Dalby is loose and light on his feet, stringing together combinations of unusual strikes one after the other, like a body shot to a head kick. Dalby slides out of the way from oncoming fire, and Alves pushes his fingers out and rakes the right eye of Alves. Dean recognizes this immediately and pauses the fight, and Dalby takes 30 seconds to recover. With seconds to spare, Alves tries one head kick, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Between rounds, Alves blows his nose, and his eye swells up to a small degree because of it. The welterweights meet in the middle and throw hands to start off Round 3, and Alves begins with a barrage of power punches. Dalby responds but gets knocked back, and Alves’ power is the different maker. Alves splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dalby into the wall and his forward pace leads them to clinch up. Dalby manages to escape and strings a few punches to the body and head together. Alves blocks a head kick in time, and he slips a strike to score a right hand. Alves surges forward to connect with a few more punches, and a takedown try from the Brazilian is stifled. As they stay stuck against one another in the clinch, Dean asks them to work a few times. Dalby hands on for as long as he can, with short knees to the body, until he chooses to break away. Alves walks him down and blasts him in the face with a right hand, and Dalby’s knees wobble but do not buckle. Alves lets loose with a low kick, and a huge right hook stuns Dalby for a moment. Alves checks a low kick so that he can unload with a right hand, and he jumps with a spinning back fist that grazes on the top of the forehead. Dalby slows Alves momentarily with a short salvo, but Alves fires back hard to get Dalby’s attention. Dalby meanders back to the cage, and Alves leaps at him with a flying knee that makes him collide with the wall instead of his opponent. Dalby stays on his bike, circling around to strike and sneak in a takedown. Alves springs right back up, and they tie up. With seconds to go, Alves pushes off, and they both score punches until the fight concludes. It seems like this will be a close one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Alves)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Warlley Alves via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Alves but with low trust due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has two versions: one that puts on masterclass performances and one that fades after the first round. He thinks Alves has the grappling upside and danger to finish, while Dalby is tough with good cardio but not dangerous. He expects the fight to leave round one and Alves to win a decision, but he's staying away from betting.
Cody picks Warlley Alves but with low confidence, noting his tendency to gas and be a front-runner. He says Alves has power and a nasty guillotine, but his cardio is suspect. He thinks Alves will win if he comes out strong, but could lose if he gasses. He mentions Alves' history of losing as a favorite. He says the under 2.5 rounds is the play.
Connor picks Dalby, noting he is a consistent, trusty fighter who can grind out a win. He expects Alves to win round 1 but Dalby to take over in round 3. He admits he wants Dalby to win and acknowledges Alves could do early damage.
Paul picks Warlley Alves but with hesitation, noting his cardio issues and tendency to lose as a favorite. He says Alves has the skills to win but is unreliable. He thinks Alves will win if he shows up, but wouldn't bet much on him. He mentions Alves' guillotine and power. He says the under is a good play.
The Guru is hesitant but picks Dalby, noting it's a close fight with even odds. He believes if there's no first-round KO from Alves, Dalby will win as the fight goes on. Alves was KO'd by Jeremiah Wells and has been inactive in 2022. The Guru compares Dalby's style to James Krause, with pitter-patter shots and movement, and thinks Dalby can survive the early danger and make Alves gas out.
Zane picks Alves hesitantly, expecting him to do too much damage early. He notes Alves is explosive and powerful, but fades and has mental blocks. Dalby is a workhorse but may be losing physical steps at 38. Zane expects Alves to win round 1 and possibly finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 15 of 17 | 88% | 15 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:22 |
| Warlley Alves | 1 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 11 of 12 | 91% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:22 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 | |
| 2 | Jeremiah Wells | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Warlley Alves | 1 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Wells | 15 of 17 | 88% | 1 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Warlley Alves | 21 of 52 | 40% | 17 of 48 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Wells | 11 of 12 | 91% | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Warlley Alves | 10 of 35 | 28% | 7 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | |
| 2 | Jeremiah Wells | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 11 of 17 | 64% | 10 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Many forget that Alves (14-4, 8-4 UFC) won the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” back in 2014 at middleweight, at the same time that Antonio Carlos Jr. won it at heavyweight. In this welterweight battle, the TUF victor will welcome Wells (8-2-1, 0-0 UFC) to the UFC on short notice, as Ramazan Emeev was forced out for undisclosed reasons. Drawing the assignment is referee Chris Tognoni, who observes an attempted glove touch from Alves as these two prepare to get after it. Wells ignores him as he runs behind the back of Tognoni, and he charges ahead and bowls Alves over with a surge of strikes and forward movement. The Brazilian is able to scoot his way back to the corner of the fence, and looks to kick off the fence while getting away with a cheeky fence grab with his toes. Wells drags him back down and starts blasting Alves in the face with huge right hands, and Alves is stuck in this position on his side. Wells unloads several more blistering right hands as he climbs to half guard, and he turns the punches to elbows when Alves grabs his wrist. Wells stands up to find a better position, and Alves pops right to his feet. Wells rushes him to ring Alves’ bell with an elbow, and he presses hard into the clinch before lifting Alves in the air. The Brazilian keeps his balance as he lands on one foot, so Wells knees him square in the midsection. The newcomer keeps his full body weight pushes on the UFC vet, but Alves simply shoves him away to gain some distance. Wells counters a leg kick with an overhand right, and he swings a huge right hand at Alves. Another home run shot comes from Wells, and Alves sees these telegraphed strikes coming and can parry them. Wells eats a counter left hand flush, and Wells whiffs on looping strikes. Wells rushes in with a flying knee before considering a takedown, and his fingers ensnare themselves into the fencing to draw a warning from Tognoni. Wells fails on a trip, and he chains this into a double leg takedown. Alves defends with a guillotine choke, and he jumps guard to set it up. Alves uses the choke to push Wells to his back, and Wells keeps a single butterfly hook in to defend himself from punishment. Wells uses upkicks to push Alves back, and the round ends with an axe kick from Alves that may have glanced off Wells’ chin – and therefore would be quite illegal. Nothing comes of it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Round 2
Alves is the man to leap out of his corner this round, jumping forward with a flying knee. Wells tries to swing bombs at him, and a counter right hand knocks Alves off-balance. The Brazilian stumbles and tries to survive, and Wells follows him to the ground to continue unloading on him.
Alves gets to his knees, but Wells bowls him over and smashes him in the face with right hand after unanswered right hand. It only takes a few for Alves to go completely out, and Tognoni cannot stop the fight fast enough.
What a way to announce yourself to the UFC, knocking out a tough vet after a furious first round. Welcome to the UFC, Jeremiah Wells.
The Official Result
Jeremiah Wells def. Warlley Alves R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Warlley Alves, citing his full training camp, consistency, and veteran experience. He acknowledges Jeremiah Wells is live with good grappling and wild striking but is not confident due to Wells' two-year layoff and short notice UFC debut. Angelo thinks Alves is the safer pick.
Big Brady picks Warlley Alves to win by first round KO, despite acknowledging his inconsistency and poor cardio. He notes Alves's dangerous finishing ability and that Wells is making his UFC debut on short notice after a long layoff. He thinks Alves will finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Wells could be a live bet. He would not parlay Alves.
Cody picks Alves but with low confidence due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has all the tools but often gasses after one round. However, Wells also has cardio issues and is on short notice. Cody thinks Alves has advantages everywhere if he shows up, but he won't bet him because of the trap potential. He suggests the under 1.5 rounds as a possible play.
Jacob picks Jeremiah Wells, noting his fast hands, real jiu-jitsu under Henzo Gracie, and potential to be a one-punch knockout artist. He acknowledges the risk of the layoff and short notice but believes Wells is live and can win. Jacob wanted to make Wells his lock of the week but wasn't confident enough.
Alves is the much better striker with legitimate jiu-jitsu. Wells is on short notice and has inactivity issues. Alves will take whatever Wells throws and make him pay. Wells has a puncher's chance but can't maintain pressure for 15 minutes. Alves should win by decision, though his cardio could be a factor if things don't go his way.
Paul picks Alves but is not confident. He notes Alves' cardio issues but thinks Wells also fades. He believes Alves has better skills and should win if he doesn't gas. He is not betting the fight but would lean under 1.5 rounds if forced.
The MMA Guru picks Warlley Alves by first-round KO, citing Wells as a short-notice replacement without quick finishes or devastating power. He notes Alves' rejuvenated career and believes Wells' age (34) and lack of first-round KOs work against him. He expects Alves to capitalize early before cardio becomes a factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warlley Alves | 1 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 24 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Mounir Lazzez | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warlley Alves | 1 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 24 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Mounir Lazzez | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warlley Alves | 17 of 21 | 80% | 9 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
| Mounir Lazzez | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warlley Alves | 17 of 21 | 80% | 9 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
| Mounir Lazzez | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady likes Mounir Lazzez's cardio and chin, noting he took Abdul Razak Alhassan's best shots. He criticizes Warlley Alves's gas tank, saying he gasses early. He predicts Lazzez will survive early grappling exchanges and take over in the second round, knocking out Alves. He suggests under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as good plays.
The host is confident in Mounir Lazzez due to his striking versatility, reach advantage, and ability to maintain distance. He believes Warlley Alves has a narrow path to victory (submission or early KO) and that Lazzez will pick him apart, potentially finishing in the second or third round. He notes Lazzez's only loss is to a top prospect.
The MMA Guru picks Mounir Lazzez, citing Alves' tendency to gas after the first round and Lazzez's patience and ability to turn the tide in later rounds, as shown in his debut against Abdul Razak Alhassan. He notes Lazzez has reach and height advantages, and predicts a third-round TKO after Alves' early onslaught fades.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 8 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 24 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:12 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Warlley Alves | 16 of 30 | 53% | 11 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Warlley Alves | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 5 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warlley Alves | 1 | 72 of 157 | 45% | 72 of 157 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Sérgio Moraes | 0 | 20 of 62 | 32% | 20 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warlley Alves | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sérgio Moraes | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Warlley Alves | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sérgio Moraes | 0 | 5 of 20 | 25% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Warlley Alves | 1 | 38 of 69 | 55% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Sérgio Moraes | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warlley Alves | 72 of 157 | 45% | 36 of 107 | 10 of 14 | 26 of 36 | 70 of 154 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sérgio Moraes | 20 of 62 | 32% | 12 of 52 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Warlley Alves | 10 of 31 | 32% | 2 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sérgio Moraes | 9 of 21 | 42% | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Warlley Alves | 24 of 57 | 42% | 10 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 12 | 24 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sérgio Moraes | 5 of 20 | 25% | 2 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Warlley Alves | 38 of 69 | 55% | 24 of 51 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 10 | 36 of 67 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Sérgio Moraes | 6 of 21 | 28% | 4 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Krause | 0 | 59 of 106 | 55% | 79 of 126 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 28 of 64 | 43% | 39 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Krause | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 38 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 19 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | James Krause | 0 | 28 of 41 | 68% | 41 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Krause | 59 of 106 | 55% | 43 of 83 | 14 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 43 of 85 | 16 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 28 of 64 | 43% | 20 of 47 | 6 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 51 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Krause | 31 of 65 | 47% | 20 of 48 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 27 of 58 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 16 of 40 | 40% | 8 of 25 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 11 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | James Krause | 28 of 41 | 68% | 23 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 27 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
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