UFC on Fox: Teixeira vs. Evans · Apr 16, 2016 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 37
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 5"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Raquel Pennington
4.1 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.32 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
0.83 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Bethe Correia
4.37 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
4.93 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.39 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Raquel Pennington - Fight History
LOSS vs Julianna Peña
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 1 92 of 317 29% 112 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Raquel Pennington 0 92 of 260 35% 123 of 308 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 17 of 60 28% 17 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 24 25% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 6 of 16 37% 18 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:00
3 Julianna Peña 0 8 of 34 23% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 18 of 33 54% 35 of 53 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:20
4 Julianna Peña 1 26 of 84 30% 26 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Raquel Pennington 0 16 of 67 23% 18 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
5 Julianna Peña 0 35 of 115 30% 35 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 85 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 92 of 317 29% 57 of 277 29 of 33 6 of 7 88 of 308 4 of 6 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 92 of 260 35% 82 of 248 9 of 11 1 of 1 90 of 256 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 17 of 60 28% 12 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 17 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 25 of 59 42% 24 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 6 of 24 25% 2 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Julianna Peña 8 of 34 23% 5 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 18 of 33 54% 14 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Julianna Peña 26 of 84 30% 12 of 69 12 of 13 2 of 2 25 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 16 of 67 23% 14 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Julianna Peña 35 of 115 30% 26 of 105 8 of 9 1 of 1 34 of 113 1 of 2 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 27 of 85 31% 24 of 81 3 of 4 0 of 0 27 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.

"Rocko Pennington is the pick and I'm fairly confident that she gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here and I think Pennington is going to win this fight and win it probably probably by decision Pennington Pennington by decision more active better fighter give me Pennington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"I will take Ral Pennington"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.

Same odds commentary.
"I think she is going to end up in a lot of long clinches with rocky which is a position where rocky is very comfortable even against stronger women."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.

"I do lean Pennington man if she can keep this fight standing she's gonna box this girl up even piece her up in the clinch with knees and elbows"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.

Pennington by TKO +2000
"I'm going Raquel Pennington yes sir"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.

Pennington by decision +110
"I'm in on all of that as well Raquel Pennington she's a tough out especially if you're not going to properly prepare for it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.

submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes
"look for Peña to go out there lean on her wrestling lean on her grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"Pennington probably Pennington by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.

"I'm going to go Raquel Pennington you guys Juliana Pena hasn't been in she's 10 and five fighting for she's 35 years old who are you like what are you doing go away"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.

Peña opened at +145, currently +147. Pennington opened at -185, now -166.
"So i'm just i'm gonna take penia i'm gonna take penia to go out and be her absolute most annoying self and win this belt and give an indecipherable interview afterward."
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 134 of 201 66% 265 of 342 1 of 3 33% 2 2 11:28
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 69 of 88 78% 96 of 118 3 of 9 33% 3 0 8:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 11 of 22 50% 26 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:16
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 18 of 22 81% 27 of 31 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 33 of 52 63% 47 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:04
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 20 of 30 66% 29 of 41 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:46
3 Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 43 62% 52 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:32
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 17 of 20 85% 20 of 23 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:35
4 Raquel Pennington 0 29 of 38 76% 75 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:17
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 7 of 8 87% 8 of 10 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:11
5 Raquel Pennington 0 34 of 46 73% 65 of 83 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:19
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 7 of 8 87% 12 of 13 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 134 of 201 66% 91 of 156 32 of 34 11 of 11 54 of 110 38 of 43 42 of 48
Mayra Bueno Silva 69 of 88 78% 32 of 44 26 of 30 11 of 14 28 of 45 38 of 40 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 11 of 22 50% 7 of 18 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 18 of 22 81% 11 of 13 4 of 5 3 of 4 7 of 11 10 of 10 1 of 1
2 Raquel Pennington 33 of 52 63% 29 of 47 4 of 5 0 of 0 23 of 40 10 of 12 0 of 0
Mayra Bueno Silva 20 of 30 66% 7 of 14 10 of 11 3 of 5 7 of 16 12 of 13 1 of 1
3 Raquel Pennington 27 of 43 62% 13 of 28 12 of 13 2 of 2 9 of 23 14 of 16 4 of 4
Mayra Bueno Silva 17 of 20 85% 6 of 8 9 of 10 2 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 14 0 of 0
4 Raquel Pennington 29 of 38 76% 22 of 31 7 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 11 5 of 5 19 of 22
Mayra Bueno Silva 7 of 8 87% 3 of 3 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0
5 Raquel Pennington 34 of 46 73% 20 of 32 5 of 5 9 of 9 8 of 17 7 of 7 19 of 22
Mayra Bueno Silva 7 of 8 87% 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 6 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Title Fight: Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bueno Silva (-170), Pennington (+142)

Round 1
The post-Amanda Nunes era at bantamweight truly begins, as eternal contender Pennington and the red-hot Bueno Silva meet to contest the belt vacated last year by the “Lioness,” who in a nice touch by the UFC is in attendance cageside with her family. Canada’s own Jerin Valel draws the referee assignment for this five-round title fight. Both fighters are in orthodox stance to open the fight. Bueno Silva throws a leg kick that glances, and Pennington rushes forward with a flurry of punches, backing the Brazilian up. Bueno Silva touches Pennington’s lead leg with a solid low kick. They engage again, and Pennington grabs hold of Bueno Silva and shoves her to the fence. Bueno Silva clasps her arms as Pennington throws a few short strikes. Bueno Silva breaks the clinch, and lands another hard calf kick. Pennington grabs a single-leg and tries to take Bueno Silva down, but Bueno Silva defends easily. Pennington goes for another quick single moments later, and they move to the fence. Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back as she drags her to the canvas and quickly locks up a choke. Pennington fights the hands expertly, standing as she does so. Pennington breaks the grip to the point that she feels safe throwing elbow strikes to the thigh of Bueno Silva. Bueno Silva gives up on the choke and briefly loses back control as Pennington scrapes her against the chain-link, but hops back on her back and pulls her to a sitting position against the fence. She throws strikes from seated back control until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bueno Silva

Round 2
Pennington comes forward with a triple jab, backing Bueno Silva up and dodging the first calf kick that comes her way. Bueno Silva throws another calf kick, backing Pennington to the fence as she does so, then uses underhooks to keep her there. Pennington throws knee up the middle, then another, and switches her hooks to reverse Bueno Silva against the fence. She lets Bueno Silva off the fence and tags her with three punches as she does so. Bueno Silva comes back with a single counter, but it’s a solid one. Bueno Silva clinches and puts Pennington back on the fence. They exchange knee strikes in close quarters. Bueno Silva tags Pennington with a pair of uppercuts to the body, and Pennington comes back across the top with a big punch to the head that rocks her. They get a little space and Pennington hits her with two more good shots to the head. Bueno Silva is hurt and goes staggering back to the fence. Pennington gives chase but ends up clinching, without enough space to follow up with more big shots. They disengage and fight a running battle all the way back across the cage, where Bueno Silva takes Pennington’s back once again and tries for the rear-naked choke. Pennington calmly defends, but again she is standing with Bueno Silva in back control. Bueno Silva loses the choke moments before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 3
Pennington scores first with a long overhand right. Bueno Silva lands two good right low kicks in succession. Pennington clinches and runs Bueno Silva to the fence, where the Brazilian promptly reverses her. Bueno Silva pushes her into the chain-link, looking to move to her back, but Pennington defends well and throws a knee to the body. Pennington takes the outside position. Bueno Silva uses a whizzer kick to toss Pennington to the ground, but Pennington kicks her off and sweeps to stand. Halfway through the round it’s Pennington driving Bueno Silva into the cage. Bueno Silva throws a knee to the body then reverses Pennington into the fence. The two would-be champs spend several long moments exchanging sporadic knees on the inside. Bueno Silva grabs a front headlock and briefly threatens, but Pennington escapes and tosses her to the canvas, ending up on top in half guard with an arm around the neck. Pennington gets up and Bueno Silva stays on the ground, suddenly looking very tired. She seems to want Pennington to go back into her guard, but Pennington is having none of it and Valel waves her up. The round expires a few moments later.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 4
Pennington steps right in a smashes Bueno Silva with a right overhand. She throws another pair of punches as Bueno Silva comes forward, looking for the clinch. Pennington quickly reverses her against the cage, but elects to stay there, throwing short punches—rather than disengage as her corner is loudly imploring her to do. Bueno Silva moves to try and take Pennington’s back against the cage. Pennington defends for a moment, but Bueno Silva persists and gets the position, then slaps on another rear-naked choke. It isn’t completely under the chin, and Pennington is turning red as she fights it off. She shrugs Bueno Silva partway off her back, but Bueno Silva continues to threaten with the choke even from the side. Finally, Pennington spins all the way into Bueno Silva’s guard at the base of the fence. She throws strikes as Bueno Silva throws her legs up for a possible triangle or armbar, but none of them are enough to really threaten, and Pennington keeps pouring on the punches and hammerfists. At the 30-second mark, Pennington postures up and comes down with a big hammerfist that draws a reaction from the Brazilian. The round ends a moment later, and Bueno Silva is slow to get up.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 5
Pennington is first off the blocks with a left and right hook. Bueno Silva swings back, advancing as she does so. Pennington seems motivated to deny her the clinch, especially against the cage, but Bueno Silva manages to get her there anyway. Bueno Silva tries for some kind of body lock, but bails on it and goes for a kneebar on her way down. There’s nothing doing there, and Pennington lands on top, sliding to mount as she locks up an arm-triangle choke. Bueno Silva is surviving just fine, as Pennington is in complete control of the position but apparently can’t get enough torque to finish the choke. Pennington moves out to one side without completely surrendering the mount, and Bueno Silva is slowly turning away from her. A minute and a half to go, and Pennington gives up the choke, settling in Bueno Silva’s half guard. Pennington pours on the punches as Bueno Silva clings to her, eyes closed, just hanging on. Valel looks on and Pennington stands out of guard, throwing kicks to the legs of her supine foe. Pennington dives in with a couple of big, but glancing punches right before the final horn. Barring a historically horrible judging gaffe, “Rocky” should be your new UFC women's bantamweight champion in about two minutes here.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Pennington (49-45 Pennington)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Pennington (49-46 Pennington)

The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Mayra Bueno Silva via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Pennington, citing her experience, pressure, and control style. He acknowledges Bueno Silva's power and submissions but believes Pennington's grit and high-level experience will prevail. He has a quarter unit on Pennington at plus 135 and will monitor for better value. He notes the potential distraction of Pennington's eight-month-old baby.

Quarter unit bet at +135; may add more if value improves
"I'm going to go rockel Pennington she is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Big Brady picks Silva, noting her submission skills are top-notch. He expects the fight to hit the mat at some point, where Silva will have the advantage. He thinks the striking will be close but Silva's forward pressure and durability will be key. He predicts a submission win for Silva.

submission
"give me Silva to win this fight and I guess she's going to become bantamweight champion"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Cody picks Bueno Silva but is not confident, citing her submission threat and the fact that Pennington fights in the clinch where Silva caught Holly Holm. However, he worries about Silva's cardio and the lack of her ADHD medication (ritalinic acid) in a five-round fight. He sees Pennington as a live underdog but ultimately goes with Silva.

"I got Mayra Bueno Silva but there's a whole lot of red flags... the pick's going to be Bueno Silva."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Vreeland picks Bueno Silva, analyzing her striking success against Holly Holm. He notes that Silva found the range against Holm and landed impactful strikes. He contrasts Pennington's lack of range kicks and long fighting style, which should allow Silva to close distance. Vreeland also mentions Silva's submission threat if Pennington shoots takedowns. He sees Silva overwhelming Pennington on the feet.

"I'm gonna go marro Buena Silva I think if you watch her fight with Holly Holm she was actually having some success in the Striking in finding the range of Holly Holm who's you know notoriously kind of hard to …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Mayra Bueno Silva to become the new bantamweight champion. He highlights her heavy power, devastating leg kicks, and finishing instinct, including the ninja choke. He expects her calf kicks to be effective against Pennington's stationary boxing style, and believes she will land the harder shots throughout the fight, possibly finishing or winning a decision.

"I'm picking maira Shara Bueno Silva to become the new UFC bantamweight champion"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Fox picks Bueno Silva as the better fighter, but acknowledges Pennington's tendency to win. He notes Pennington's year-long layoff as a concern. Fox doesn't provide detailed technical analysis but defers to Silva's overall skill advantage.

"I'm taking Myra buo Silva as well just a better Fighter um it's hard though Pennington somehow she wins gumy she always wins so I can that could very easily happen here again but I think I'm going to take …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host only covers the main event, co-main event (Weili Zhang vs Tatiana Suarez), and other fights, but not Pennington vs Bueno Silva.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

I'm leaning on Bueno Silva to win inside the distance, likely by submission. Pennington could be the busier fighter and win rounds with volume, but Bueno Silva has a finish-heavy style that can break and frustrate Pennington. I think Bueno Silva lands a shot that opens up a clinch and sub opportunity. I'm not taking the moneyline at -155; I prefer the inside distance prop. I'd be very surprised if Pennington finishes Bueno Silva.

inside distance, submission victory
"I'm going to say Bueno Sila inside the distance that will likely end up being a bet too but I think she wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul picks Pennington, emphasizing her experience in five-round fights, superior cardio, and wrestling. He notes Bueno Silva's submission threat but believes Pennington can avoid submissions and take over in later rounds. He also jokes about Silva missing her ADHD medication affecting her focus.

"I'm going to enact the CF dot model for this one... it's Pennington for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her higher finishing potential and submission ability. He notes her win over Holly Holm (though overturned) and her competitive fight with Manon Fiorot. He believes she will submit Pennington with a knee bar in round two.

submission via knee bar, round 2
"I'm going with Maya Bueno Silva over Raquel Pennington I think her finishing potential is just way higher than Raquel Pennington"
WIN vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 64 of 152 42% 138 of 230 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:45
Ketlen Vieira 0 81 of 159 50% 104 of 184 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 71 32% 29 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Ketlen Vieira 0 27 of 58 46% 27 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 51 41% 42 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 61 47% 32 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 30 66% 67 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:04
Ketlen Vieira 0 25 of 40 62% 45 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 64 of 152 42% 41 of 122 5 of 10 18 of 20 56 of 143 8 of 9 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 81 of 159 50% 37 of 111 32 of 35 12 of 13 59 of 134 22 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 23 of 71 32% 15 of 58 3 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 27 of 58 46% 14 of 44 9 of 9 4 of 5 24 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 21 of 51 41% 10 of 39 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 29 of 61 47% 14 of 43 11 of 14 4 of 4 21 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 20 of 30 66% 16 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5 16 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 25 of 40 62% 9 of 24 12 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 29 11 of 11 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raquel Pennington vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-115), Pennington (-105)

Round 1
In terms of pure rankings, no fight on the billing is more relevant than this fight that is not on the marquee. This women’s bantamweight pairing, one pitting the second-ranked Vieira (13-2, 7-2 UFC) against the no. 5 Pennington (14-8, 11-5 UFC), could have immediate title implications depending on how it plays out. One woman will take her first defeat in quite some time, and referee Chris Tognoni will be the first to know who that is. The ladies sportingly clap hands ahead of their important fight, and they are jittery and not ready to engage. At the 20-second mark, Pennington leaps forward with a superwoman punch, and Vieira backs her off with a solid right hand in response. Vieira walks through a low kick on the inside and a jab to the body so that she can swing a swatting left hook, but this misses the mark. The Brazilian whiffs on a big right as well, prompting Pennington to charge in with a stream of jabs. Vieira parries two looping strikes to catch “Rocky” with a short right hand on the way in. Pennington appears no worse for wear as she goes for another kick on the inside of the knee, and she ducks back when a big left hook whizzes past her face. Vieira grabs a charging Pennington to knee her right in the chest, and she sends her backpedaling with a clean right hand across the bow. Pennington slams her shin on the low calf of her opponent, and she fakes a second to draw an exaggerated reaction out of the Brazilian. Vieira snipes with a left hand to open a cut on the top of Pennington’s forehead, and she chains together a combination of punches and a low kick to keep Pennington guessing. Vieira absorbs a kick to the ribs as she closes the distance, and she reaches her foe with a left hook in a short salvo. Vieira paws out a trio of low kicks before lunging with a straight punch to the body, and Pennington answers with a similar punch before swinging a left hand at her. Vieira lands at the end of her left hook, and another superwoman punch from Pennington allows her to close the distance and tie the Brazilian up to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 2
The bantamweight contenders touch hands before re-engaging, and engage they do almost immediately, when Pennington coming out firing. Vieira answers with a counter left hook, as she measures this strike to draw ever closer to the mark. Vieira takes one on the chin to throw back two, and she has a handful of punches ricochet off the guard. Pennington connects with a heavy one-two, and Vieira blinks it out but cannot keep an advancing Pennington off of her. “Rocky” grabs hold of Vieira from behind, where she considers elevating the Brazilian to drop her on the mat, or otherwise force Vieira to carry her body weight. Vieira gets warned for bragging the fence, and she turns back around in the clinch and belts Pennington in the face with a stern elbow. Vieira opens up with a one-two, and she starts slugging it out with her opponent and gets marked up as well. The right side of Pennington’s face is growingly covered in blood, while Vieira’s mouth is also turning a brilliant shade of scarlet. Vieira spins Pennington around, and a knee from the former title challenger slams square into Vieira’s groin. Tognoni recognizes the foul as Vieira appears in clear pain, and the action is paused for about 45 seconds until they get back to it. Pennington starts off the initial aggressor, slinging a high kick and a few lancing punches while Vieira throws back in volume. Vieira gets off with a right hand, and Pennington replies in kind to snap the head back. Pennington nails her with another right over the top before latching on to the clinch and clubbing the body with a pair of knees. Pennington checks the clock when pinned to the fence – it reads about 58 seconds – and she tries with all her might to break off. When she cannot get out of the clinch, she settles for knee after unanswered knee to the chest and midsection. Vieira is sticking to her tightly without striking back, and Pennington remains the busier of the two with body shots. Vieira slithers around to the back with seconds to spare, and there is nothing to be had before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pennington
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Pennington

Round 3
The ladies double touch hands, hug and then bump fists again to start the last round. They immediately go for broke, with Pennington not wasting any time engaging and throwing hands. Pennington cracks Vieira with a superwoman punch, and Vieira answers with several speedy punches in response. The two close the distance and end up tied up, with Vieira pushing the former title challenger against the wall. Pennington grinds her elbow on the chin as Vieira stays close enough to not take many knees as she did the end of the last round. When Pennington sets up a Thai plum, Vieira disengages. Vieira resets and dings Pennington with a right hand, stringing together a few strikes before Pennington closes in to grab hold of her. They trade short single punches up close, and both try to attempt a throw or toss to change position. When neither succeed, Vieira spins her around in the tie-up, and Pennington looks for a Thai clinch again. This time, Pennington is able to score a knee before they separate, and Vieira leaps forward suddenly with a crushing elbow. Pennington takes it cleanly and tries to escape, so Vieira follows her and nails her with another before snagging here again up close. Vieira targets elbows, and Pennington rips the body with a knee. When in the clinch, Vieira slips around to nearly take the back, and she knees the thigh while Pennington punches her from over her own shoulder. Vieira looks to elevate Pennington, but she cannot throw her as Pennington’s base is too solid. Vieira stays clung to her adversary right to the bitter end, and the judges have their hands full with this one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (29-28 Vieira)

The Official Result
Raquel Pennington def. Ketlen Vieira via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Vieira, citing her size, power, and Judo. He thinks she will be busier in the clinch and work off the cage, making Pennington look boring. He acknowledges Pennington's toughness but believes Vieira's recent win over Holly Holm and physical advantages will secure a decision. He is willing to bet on her.

"I like Caitlin to win this fight I think minus 117 I actually think that's good money on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Big Brady picks Ketlen Vieira but is not confident, calling it his least favorite fight on the card. He sees Vieira having a grappling advantage if she gets on top, but notes she often does nothing with control time, as seen in fights against Yana Kunitskaya and Holly Holm. He also acknowledges Pennington's clinch work and ability to push Vieira against the cage. He predicts a close, ugly decision that judges might get wrong, and he will not bet on the fight.

Not betting on this fight; Vieira by decision
"I'm gonna stick with with Vera though I don't love it I will not be betting on this fight but I will pick Viera to win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody leans slightly towards Pennington, noting her striking output against Aspen Ladd and potential bulldog choke. He sees it as a close fight and prefers to bet it live after seeing who is stronger in the clinch.

"I'll lean ever so slightly to Rocky Pennington... but uh no way I'm getting money invested in it early"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Connor picks Vieira because she is physically stronger and more powerful, and has a wrestling advantage that can neutralize Pennington's boxing. He notes that Pennington often gets taken down at least once per fight, and Vieira's clinch work and top control can sway judges. Connor also mentions that Vieira showed renewed confidence against Holly Holm, throwing off her back foot and in clinches.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Connor expects a split decision either way.
"I'm going to pick her here. ... Vieira is more she's more powerful. She's she's the bigger hitter and at least the little bit of confidence renewed confidence. She showed against home to at least throw off her back foot …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Connor also picks Vieira, agreeing that she has improved and has more options. He notes that Pennington has power and patience, which could create opportunities, but Vieira's grappling and overall game should prevail. Connor mentions that Pennington has made herself interesting but Vieira is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jacob picks Pennington, calling Vieira overrated and Pennington underrated. He argues Pennington's recent wins are more impressive and she is the better overall fighter. He notes Vieira's split decision losses and that Pennington's clinch control and striking looked sharp. He is confident enough to bet $100 against Angelo.

Bet $100 with Angelo
"I'll pick Rocky in this fight I think she's the better fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Paul leans towards Vieira, citing her size and recent five-round experience. He expects a clinch-heavy fight and thinks Vieira may get the better of it, but admits he has low confidence and sees it as a pass or live-bet situation.

"the official pick will be Kellen Vieira but it's like you know there's Fighters that you can trust... I couldn't tell you"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Zane picks Pennington because she has steadily improved her boxing and showed excellent counter-punching against Aspen Ladd. He notes that Pennington is a solid defensive wrestler who doesn't give up much even when taken down, and that she makes good decisions as the fight goes on. Zane also points out that Vieira's striking has become overly cautious since her knockout loss, relying on clinch work rather than developing her forward striking.

Odds: Vieira opened -145, jumped to -105, currently -123. Pennington opened +125, jumped to -112, currently +101. Zane expects a close fight and thinks Pennington's technical acumen could earn her a decision.
"I'm going to take Pennington though. ... Pennington is just she is a very solid defensive wrestling grappler even when she gets surprised by somebody's strength or you know gets put in a bad position. She doesn't give a lot …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Zane picks Vieira, noting that she has shown improvements in tactical depth and technique over her last few fights. He believes she has too many options and has gotten better at connecting phases of her game, defense, and counterpunching. However, he worries about her last fight against Melissa Gatto where she couldn't finish and got reversed. He still thinks she should be a lock to win.

Odds mentioned: Vieira opened at -160, currently -248; Pennington opened at +140, currently +200.
"I'm gonna take you banks as well but uh yeah I you know it I would I will be interested to see if if cash aware I can win a fight like this"
WIN vs Aspen Ladd
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 65 of 160 40% 102 of 199 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:56
Aspen Ladd 0 114 of 195 58% 136 of 218 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 20 of 60 33% 25 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Aspen Ladd 0 40 of 74 54% 40 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Raquel Pennington 0 26 of 68 38% 28 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aspen Ladd 0 49 of 82 59% 52 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 32 59% 49 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:56
Aspen Ladd 0 25 of 39 64% 44 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 65 of 160 40% 37 of 118 21 of 34 7 of 8 52 of 145 13 of 15 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 114 of 195 58% 57 of 133 47 of 52 10 of 10 89 of 166 25 of 29 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 20 of 60 33% 13 of 48 6 of 11 1 of 1 20 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 40 of 74 54% 24 of 56 12 of 14 4 of 4 36 of 70 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 26 of 68 38% 19 of 53 2 of 10 5 of 5 23 of 63 3 of 5 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 49 of 82 59% 29 of 60 20 of 22 0 of 0 42 of 74 7 of 8 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 19 of 32 59% 5 of 17 13 of 13 1 of 2 9 of 22 10 of 10 0 of 0
Aspen Ladd 25 of 39 64% 4 of 17 15 of 16 6 of 6 11 of 22 14 of 17 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

Angelo picks Aspen Ladd, citing her toughness and 'dog' mentality. He thinks Pennington's style of cage pressure and control won't work against Ladd's refusal to be bullied. He notes Ladd's power and wrestling, and says this is a no-bet situation.

No bet situation.
"i think i like aspen ladd here i think i like aspen ladd honestly the dog in her not accepting the bully the positions from raquel pennington i think aspen lad gets this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington to win by decision. He notes Pennington has solid takedown defense and should keep the fight on the feet, where she can outstrike Ladd. Ladd looked terrible in her last fight against Norma Dumont, landing only 3 strikes in the first round. Brady thinks Ladd's path to victory is takedowns, but Pennington is strong and physical enough to stuff them.

"give me rocky pennington to win and give me her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

Cody also leans Ladd, but emphasizes the weight cut risk. He notes Pennington's recent wins are over low-level opponents and that she has been taken down by her last three foes. Cody thinks Ladd's top game will be decisive if she makes weight. He plans to watch weigh-ins before betting, and is interested in the under if Ladd looks drained.

under 2.5 rounds +240
"the value side would be aspen lad for me but more interested in uh watching the weigh-ins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Levi sees Raquel Pennington as the more well-rounded fighter with takedowns and a grinding style. He worries about Aspen Ladd's top pressure and ground-and-pound, but thinks Pennington's takedown defense and experience against top competition (including Amanda Nunes) will allow her to mix strikes and takedowns. He expects a decision win for Pennington, though he is not rushing to bet at -190.

"the more well-rounded fighter here no questions asked is rocky pennington"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

I think we'll see a better version of Aspen Ladd than last time. She should be able to push Pennington against the cage, drag her to the floor, and have success with ground and pound. Pennington struggles when fights hit the mat. Ladd will grind out a decision victory.

"I think we're going to see a better version of Aspen Ladd than we did last time... I think we see Ladd grind her out and eventually get a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aspen Ladd

Paul leans towards Ladd as an underdog but conditions it on her making weight. He notes Pennington's takedown defense is weak and that Ladd has ferocious ground and pound. Paul thinks if Ladd gets top position, she'll smash Pennington. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds if Ladd looks bad at weigh-ins. He calls Ladd his first underdog pick of the card.

under 2.5 rounds +240
"this is gonna be my first underdog pick of the card aspen lad yeah she's my baby"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington, criticizing Aspen Ladd's lack of grit and poor performance in her last fight. He expects Pennington to push the pace and win a 30-27 decision, noting that Ladd has changed her style since being KO'd and no longer leads the dance.

"i am going to be going with raquel pennington here getting the job done over aspen lad"
WIN vs Macy Chiasson
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:07 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 45 of 79 56% 61 of 95 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:09
Macy Chiasson 0 26 of 86 30% 64 of 126 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 24 of 38 63% 37 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Macy Chiasson 0 15 of 48 31% 48 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
2 Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:38
Macy Chiasson 0 11 of 38 28% 16 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 45 of 79 56% 22 of 48 20 of 28 3 of 3 38 of 71 7 of 8 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 26 of 86 30% 16 of 65 9 of 18 1 of 3 22 of 79 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 24 of 38 63% 10 of 21 11 of 14 3 of 3 21 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 15 of 48 31% 11 of 39 4 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Raquel Pennington 21 of 41 51% 12 of 27 9 of 14 0 of 0 17 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0
Macy Chiasson 11 of 38 28% 5 of 26 5 of 9 1 of 3 9 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes that Pennington is a grinder who uses cage control and pressure, but that Macy Chiasson uses her reach well and has good Muay Thai. He believes the small cage at the Apex may limit Chiasson's ability to circle, but still sees Chiasson as a live underdog. Angelo expects a boring win for Pennington but not a cakewalk.

"i think raquel is able to crowd pressure and work her way to a pretty boring win but this is not a cakewalk"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Big Brady initially liked Pennington but changed his pick after learning the fight is at 145 lbs, which he believes massively favors Chiasson. He notes Chiasson's size, youth, and experience at featherweight, and expects her to use her height and reach to win a close decision. He mentions Pennington's takedown ability but thinks the weight class change is decisive.

decision
"I'm going to say macy chazon comes out here uses her height her reach her size and wins a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Cody likes Chiasson as a dog, noting the fight is at 145 lbs which favors her. He points out that Pennington has looked disinterested since her title fight and has poor striking. Chiasson is bigger, stronger, and has better striking at range and in the clinch. Cody thinks Chiasson can win by outworking Pennington.

"I think this is a dog selection here I think I think macy chase on is live in the spot and she could get the job done so I'll uh I'll take missy jason"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Raquel Pennington. He praises Pennington's grit, durability, and experience, noting she only loses to former champions. However, he points out that many of Pennington's wins are split decisions, making it a close fight. Levi is concerned about Chiasson's size and reach advantage at 145, and wonders if Pennington's clinch game will be less effective against a taller opponent. He thinks Chiasson could win if she has improved, but ultimately picks Pennington to edge out a decision.

Pennington by split decision; fight goes to decision
"I do lean Pennington but I mean if someone wants to take a shot on Chiasson and hope for that split decision I can't sit here talk you off of it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Jacob picks Macy Chiasson, believing the UFC is setting her up to be a contender. He thinks the fight comes down to clinch work, and that Chiasson is bigger, more physical, and nastier than Pennington at this point. He expects Chiasson to win a dirty decision, possibly with a finish. Jacob notes that Chiasson has never been finished and has finishing ability herself.

"i think she's a little even more nastier than raquel at this point in her career i think she's hungry i think she knows she's close to getting those big big fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Pennington by decision, citing her well-rounded game and experience. He notes that Chiasson relies on being physical and bullying, but if she can't do that, she succumbs. He expects Pennington to pull away in the later rounds and win a 15-minute fight. He likes the decision prop at +115.

Pennington by decision (+115)
"I'm liking uh penguin by decision at plus 115. i do think she'll grand alchemists on over over 15 minutes here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Paul agrees with Chiasson, citing the reach advantage and the weight class change. He notes Pennington isn't big for 135, let alone 145, and Chiasson doesn't have to cut much weight. Paul thinks it's a 'dogger pass' and leans Chiasson.

"I'm with you as well I think like five and a half inch reach rocky isn't exactly too big for 135 pounds let alone 145 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Macy Chiasson, citing Pennington's physical strength and ability to bully Chiasson against the cage. He notes Pennington has good wins over Pannie Kianzad, Marion Reneau, and Irene Aldana. He was not impressed by Chiasson's performance against Reneau. He thinks Pennington is too strong and will control the fight.

"i'm going to go over raquel pennington here over mesa chasson"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 50 of 98 51% 85 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 5:34
Pannie Kianzad 0 48 of 79 60% 98 of 144 1 of 3 33% 0 0 6:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:24
Pannie Kianzad 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 10 of 17 58% 21 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Pannie Kianzad 0 12 of 18 66% 34 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
3 Raquel Pennington 0 28 of 62 45% 43 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:15
Pannie Kianzad 0 28 of 49 57% 39 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 50 of 98 51% 26 of 68 20 of 25 4 of 5 13 of 50 37 of 48 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 48 of 79 60% 26 of 56 17 of 18 5 of 5 23 of 49 23 of 28 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 12 of 19 63% 3 of 7 8 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 3 12 of 16 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 5 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 10 of 17 58% 7 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 6 of 7 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 12 of 18 66% 7 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 11 3 of 5 2 of 2
3 Raquel Pennington 28 of 62 45% 16 of 47 9 of 11 3 of 4 9 of 37 19 of 25 0 of 0
Pannie Kianzad 28 of 49 57% 16 of 36 8 of 9 4 of 4 15 of 33 13 of 16 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington because she will march forward, hold Pannie against the cage, and neutralize her boxing. He notes that Pennington's losses are to current/former champions and that she is a boring but effective grappler. He likes the -132 odds and thinks they will move. He is confident Pennington stifles Pannie's combinations.

Less on Pannie Kianzad's strike line (115.5)
"raquel pennington is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her superior level of competition and ability to grind against the cage. He notes Kianzad was outstruck by Alexis Davis and has shown vulnerability to wrestling. He predicts a decision win for Pennington, though he wishes the price were better and likely won't bet it.

"i'm going to take pennington to win um don't love the price to be honest"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Cody picks Kianzad as a slight underdog, citing her better striking and improved takedown defense. He notes that Pennington is a grinder but has looked mentally off in recent fights. Cody believes Kianzad can keep the fight at range and outwork Pennington.

"i would classify this one as a dog or pass situation and again you do have chianzan as that plus 110 underdogs so gonna go ahead"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Levi leans with Raquel Pennington. He calls Kianzad an overachiever and thinks Pennington's record is misleading because she has fought the best. He sees similar boxing-centric styles but gives the edge to Pennington, expecting a close decision. He notes he usually likes to dog close decisions but here he leans with Pennington.

"i'm gonna go with rocky pennington here maybe a close decision and oftentimes on close decisions i like to dog but on this one i'm leaning with rocky pennington to to win the decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Preet picks Pennington because she is good at everything and has better cardio and forward pressure. He thinks Kianzad is a better technical striker but Pennington will nullify her with clinch work and takedowns. He expects a decision and likes the fight goes to decision at +125.

Fight goes to decision +125
"I like Pennington in this fight I'm kind of you know I'm kind of surprised how much I like her here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Paul agrees with taking Kianzad at plus money, noting that Pennington's style could lead to a close decision. He thinks Kianzad's volume and range striking give her an edge, but acknowledges the smaller cage may favor Pennington's grinding.

"if it's gonna be that close you take the plus money i guess in those spots so i'll i'll follow you along on that one panty cans at plus 110"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad over Raquel Pennington, praising Kianzad's fundamentals, dirty boxing, and recent form. He questions Pennington's motivation and activity, predicting a 30-27 unanimous decision for Kianzad.

"i'm going to go with pani kian's ad here"
WIN vs Marion Reneau
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 107 of 154 69% 118 of 165 1 of 2 50% 0 1 5:29
Marion Reneau 0 46 of 117 39% 81 of 154 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 36 63% 25 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
Marion Reneau 0 17 of 52 32% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
2 Raquel Pennington 0 37 of 50 74% 41 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:15
Marion Reneau 0 13 of 29 44% 35 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:38
3 Raquel Pennington 0 47 of 68 69% 52 of 73 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:50
Marion Reneau 0 16 of 36 44% 22 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 107 of 154 69% 54 of 97 46 of 50 7 of 7 51 of 93 52 of 56 4 of 5
Marion Reneau 46 of 117 39% 20 of 85 20 of 25 6 of 7 22 of 84 24 of 33 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 23 of 36 63% 9 of 22 12 of 12 2 of 2 11 of 23 12 of 13 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 17 of 52 32% 8 of 39 6 of 9 3 of 4 7 of 37 10 of 15 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 37 of 50 74% 15 of 27 20 of 21 2 of 2 14 of 24 19 of 21 4 of 5
Marion Reneau 13 of 29 44% 5 of 21 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 15 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 47 of 68 69% 30 of 48 14 of 17 3 of 3 26 of 46 21 of 22 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 16 of 36 44% 7 of 25 8 of 10 1 of 1 12 of 32 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington by decision, believing she is the better striker and that the fight will stay on the feet. He notes Pennington's superior competition and Reneau's age (42). He thinks Reneau's only path to victory is a submission, which he doesn't see happening. He is pretty confident and thinks the line could be wider.

odds: Pennington minus 150, Reneau plus 125; pick by decision
"I like Pennington here I like her to win I think she's more you know the better fighter on the feet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Marion Reneau

Daniel Levi picks Marion Reneau as an underdog, arguing that the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He notes that Raquel Pennington is average and doesn't land many takedowns, while Reneau has decent hands and can win a close decision. Levi believes Reneau has a chance to win a split decision, especially on her 43rd birthday.

"I'm actually going to go on the opposite end and take a Marion Reneau to get it done on her 43rd birthday."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Pennington is boring but has experience against better opponents. Reneau is 42 years old and coming off a loss to Jessica Eye, which indicates she is past her prime. Pennington will get the job done, though it may be a dull fight.

"Raquel Pennington is gonna beat Marion Reneau Marion Reneau is 42 years of age she's at losses she lost a Jessica aya which now tells me that she is absolute [ __ ] dog shits"
LOSS vs Holly Holm
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 30 of 62 48% 81 of 129 0 of 3 0% 0 0 7:16
Raquel Pennington 0 38 of 78 48% 55 of 95 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:48
Raquel Pennington 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Holly Holm 0 9 of 17 52% 32 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:07
Raquel Pennington 0 19 of 27 70% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Holly Holm 0 15 of 33 45% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Raquel Pennington 0 14 of 37 37% 20 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 30 of 62 48% 12 of 33 9 of 18 9 of 11 20 of 50 10 of 12 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 38 of 78 48% 9 of 43 27 of 30 2 of 5 10 of 46 28 of 32 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 6 of 12 50% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 4 3 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 5 of 14 35% 1 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 2 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 9 of 17 52% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 9 6 of 8 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 19 of 27 70% 3 of 10 15 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 9 17 of 18 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 15 of 33 45% 8 of 20 2 of 8 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 14 of 37 37% 5 of 25 9 of 11 0 of 1 6 of 26 8 of 11 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.

"I will take Raquel to edge out a very close decision this time just by being the more active fighter that's moving forward the entire time."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.

2.5 units at -122; might sprinkle another unit if line improves.
"I have 2.5 units on Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.

decision
"Raquel Pennington is gonna get a job done here I'll be honest with you guys I like her damage taking ability I don't like Holly Holm's damage taking ability whatsoever"
Bethe Correia - Fight History
LOSS vs Karol Rosa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karol Rosa 0 62 of 147 42% 85 of 171 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Bethe Correia 0 125 of 199 62% 145 of 219 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karol Rosa 0 18 of 43 41% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bethe Correia 0 30 of 51 58% 37 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Karol Rosa 0 18 of 44 40% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bethe Correia 0 48 of 71 67% 56 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Karol Rosa 0 26 of 60 43% 29 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Bethe Correia 0 47 of 77 61% 52 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karol Rosa 62 of 147 42% 18 of 91 38 of 50 6 of 6 57 of 140 5 of 7 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 125 of 199 62% 70 of 142 35 of 35 20 of 22 102 of 172 22 of 26 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karol Rosa 18 of 43 41% 4 of 25 13 of 17 1 of 1 14 of 38 4 of 5 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 30 of 51 58% 12 of 31 13 of 13 5 of 7 24 of 45 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Karol Rosa 18 of 44 40% 4 of 27 12 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 48 of 71 67% 30 of 53 12 of 12 6 of 6 36 of 56 12 of 15 0 of 0
3 Karol Rosa 26 of 60 43% 10 of 39 13 of 18 3 of 3 26 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 47 of 77 61% 28 of 58 10 of 10 9 of 9 42 of 71 4 of 5 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bethe Correia (138.5: Missed Weight) vs. Karol Rosa

Round 1
It’s time to say goodbye to a beloved female fighter, as former bantamweight title challenger Correia (11-5-1, 5-5-1 UFC) came back to the organization for a one-off retirement match. Putting the cherry on top for her final bout, Correia missed weight by 2.5 pounds before facing surging countrywoman Rosa (14-3, 3-0 UFC). As is customary in the UFC, the promotion will look to build a new star in the 26-year-old Rosa from a win over the 38-year-old superstar “Pitbull.” Rosa is thankful that she was selected to win the lottery of the final foe, but she does not offer a glove touch while referee Herb Dean watches on. The two women start off with a very brief brawl, and Correia lands at the end of a left hand. Rosa gives her one back with a clubbing right hand, and Correia does not register it. Rosa ties her up with a collar tie, and she lands a pair of knees to the body as Correia fights out of it. “Pitbull” scores a leg kick, and Rosa returns fire with one much more powerful. Correia jabs to the head and body, and Rosa stings her with a right hand before grabbing on to a Thai clinch again. Rosa gets off a knee or two before Correia fights her way out of the position, allowing the younger fighter to connect with a thudding leg kick. They come together landing single strikes, and then clash with fists from both sides. Rosa connects with a one-two, and Correia tries to counter with an overhand right but misses the mark. Rosa delivers a kick to the body as she marches Correia down, and a right hand backs Correia up to the wall. Correia responds with a few one-twos that miss, and Rosa slips and rips with a counter and a low kick. Rosa jumps forward with a knee that lands to the body, and one drills Correia in the face, making Correia check her nose for damage. It is turning red but does not appear to be aiming the wrong direction. Rosa has a kick caught, and Correia aims to sting her with a right hand up top but she is just out of reach. Rosa nails Correia in the body with a kick, forcing Correia to drop her right elbow, and she sees this and lands with a pair of punches. Suddenly, Rosa shoots in for a takedown, but Correia stays upright and holds on to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 2
Correia rushes out to take the center of the cage, only to get popped with a swiping left hand from the taller, rangier Rosa. Correia jabs out to the body a few times, and she ducks out of the way to avoid punches and a high kick. Correia does land a kick to the legs, and Rosa clips her with a counter left hand. Out of nowhere, Rosa jumps ahead to blast Correia in the body with a knee, and Correia reels but does not show the pain on her face. Rosa walks her foe down and lands a few looping punches, and a one-two that is straighter splits the guard. Rosa marches through oncoming fire to land a knee to the body, and she pops Correia in the chops with a right hand. Correia has a swarm of punches deflected, and Rosa kicks low and fires off a knee to the chest. Correia attempts to back her away with body shots, and Rosa does not give her a moment to breathe as she attacks the body. Rosa lets loose with a few elbows from up top, and Correia flails in response and grabs hold of the younger Rosa to slow down her offense. Rosa takes advantage of the close proximity to dig elbows on the fatiguing Correia’s face, all while pressing heavily on Correia to tire her further. Rosa gets off short knees and defends any reversal attempts from her opponent, and stops a trip attempt from Correia. As she breaks away, Rosa lets Correia have it with several hacking elbows. A right hand from Rosa backs Correia up, but Correia is not out of the fight as she catches a swinging Rosa with a quick right as well. Rosa charges ahead with a knee to the body and hurts Correia, and she pours it on with several more that bend Correia over. Rosa chains knees and elbows together to clobber Correia until the horn saves her.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 3
The last round for Correia’s MMA career begins as she takes punches to the face and kicks to the lead leg. This sport is a cruel one, and there is no time for heroes. Rosa hops out of the way with ease any time Correia mounts offense, and she gives it back to Correia threefold. Rosa gets off a jump knee and a right hand, and Correia can partially defend herself but the strike gets through. Correia walks through a few punches to land one, and Rosa stays busy by mixing up strikes up high and low. Two hooks to the body connect for the 38-year-old, and Rosa does not even register them as she plods ahead looking to land strikes. She beats Correia to the punch with a jab, and a few body kicks frustrate Correia. Rosa jumps in with a knee and a right hand follow-up shot, but Correia wears it well. Rosa lands successfully, blocks the responsive strikes and continues to do work on “Pitbull.” Rosa gets off a right hand, and she just misses with a spinning kick. Two loud punches mark Correia’s face up, and they slap kicks at the same time. Rosa has a one-two and a step-in knee pound into Correia’s body, and Correia’s face is showing damage and disappointment. Rosa finds her way into a clinch, and she comes up short with a trip takedown. Correia walks face-first into a jumping knee, but her own knees do not buckle as she just gets pushed into the wall. Rosa goes to the well with another such knee, and Correia attacks with a desperation takedown. Rosa easily shoves Correia to her back, and she unloads with ground-and-pound until the final bell puts Correia’s career in the rear-view mirror. When the fight concludes, Rosa's first reaction is to give her opponent a long hug. Meanwhile, she has likely surfed to a fairly one-sided decision.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (30-27 Rosa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (30-27 Rosa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (30-27 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Bethe Correia via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Angelo picks Karol Rosa, citing her high volume striking and upward trajectory against a declining Bethe Correia. He notes that Rosa is a decision fighter with solid takedown defense, while Correia has fought top competition but is older and beat up. Angelo thinks the most likely outcome is Rosa touching up Correia over three rounds, but he acknowledges that Correia could make it dirty and uncomfortable. He believes the odds are too wide and that Rosa should be around -150, not -350. He likes the less less monkey knife fight pick.

less less monkey knife fight
"the pick is carol because bech kaheya you know while she's got that experience while she's fought an incredibly high level for a long time she's she's she's beat up she's older she's beat up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa to win by decision, citing her youth (26 vs 38), volume striking (7.73 significant strikes per minute), and black belt BJJ. He notes Correia has good takedown defense (84%) but gets outlanded in every fight and hasn't outlanded anyone since 2014. Rosa is hittable (48% striking defense) but should outvolume Correia to a one-sided decision. Brady expects this to be Correia's retirement fight.

Rosa by decision
"i think carol joseph does win and i will say she wins by i'll say decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, calling her a pick of the week. He notes that Rosa is young, has high volume, good grappling, and a solid chin. Correia is 38 and has not looked good in years. He expects Rosa to win by decision, as she is not a big finisher. He suggests betting Rosa by decision or including her in parlays.

Rosa by decision at -190
"carl rosa pick of the week for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Karol Rosa

Daniel Levi picks Karol Rosa confidently, citing her incredible volume (over 100 significant strikes in each UFC fight) and youth. He notes the matchup heavily favors Rosa, who is faster, fresher, and not in retirement mode like Correia. His only concern is a potential 'respect factor' between Brazilians, but he expects Rosa to dominate via decision or even knockout. He does not recommend betting at -600 due to lack of value.

over 100 significant strikes; high fantasy score
"match-up based you got to go with carl jose all day she's got more volume she's faster she's younger she's fresher"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Karol Rosa

I think Rosa is levels above Correia. Rosa has great volume and technique, while Correia is a brawler with poor defense. Rosa should outland her easily and win a decision. I like Rosa by decision at -170, but the moneyline is fine too. I don't see Correia having a path to victory.

Rosa by decision -170
"I'm big on carol hosa to be honest i think she has a lot of skills that are going to be able to translate into something"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Paul also picks Rosa, noting that she is well-rounded with good cardio and chin. He believes Correia is past her prime and that Rosa will have her way everywhere. He expects a decision win for Rosa.

Rosa by decision at -190
"i got carl rosa both girls are five foot five but carl rose's got a three inch reach advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Karol Rosa, noting her youth, reach advantage, and hunger compared to Bethe Correia, who is retiring. He believes Rosa will win by decision, as she has good wins over Joselyne Edwards and Lara Procopio. He also questions Correia's mindset as a retirement fight.

"i'm going to be going with carol rosa here over becca heyer"
LOSS vs Pannie Kianzad
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Pannie Kianzad 0 56 of 143 39% 83 of 178 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:01
Bethe Correia 0 103 of 199 51% 106 of 205 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Pannie Kianzad 0 18 of 47 38% 19 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
Bethe Correia 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Pannie Kianzad 0 22 of 51 43% 43 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:21
Bethe Correia 0 25 of 48 52% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Pannie Kianzad 0 16 of 45 35% 21 of 50 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:32
Bethe Correia 0 48 of 83 57% 48 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Pannie Kianzad 56 of 143 39% 40 of 117 14 of 20 2 of 6 46 of 126 9 of 15 1 of 2
Bethe Correia 103 of 199 51% 76 of 168 10 of 14 17 of 17 97 of 191 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Pannie Kianzad 18 of 47 38% 14 of 39 4 of 7 0 of 1 14 of 40 4 of 7 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 30 of 68 44% 22 of 56 4 of 8 4 of 4 27 of 63 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Pannie Kianzad 22 of 51 43% 11 of 36 9 of 11 2 of 4 16 of 41 5 of 8 1 of 2
Bethe Correia 25 of 48 52% 17 of 40 4 of 4 4 of 4 22 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Pannie Kianzad 16 of 45 35% 15 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 1 16 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 48 of 83 57% 37 of 72 2 of 2 9 of 9 48 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Big Brady picks Kianzad because she is faster and has a striking advantage. He notes Correia has fought better competition but is stiff and slow. He expects a close split decision and says he probably won't bet it.

Kianzad by decision; split decision likely
"I think she's the far faster fighter like correa is just you know she's very stiff she's slow"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Bethe Correia

Daniel picks Correia, citing her experience, toughness, and power. He thinks Kianzad may start well but fade, and Correia can win the later rounds. He notes Correia has fought the best and been competitive, while Kianzad's level of competition is lower. He expects a close decision.

"i'm actually going to go with betch kojeya to win the second and third round and edge out this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

Kianzad is the longer, more polished striker and can mix in takedowns. Correia is flawed technically and has lost to higher-level competition. Kianzad should outpoint Correia over three rounds, though the line offers little value at -155.

"i still like kansai here i'm gonna take her to win this fight by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Pannie Kianzad

The MMA Guru picks Pannie Kianzad based on physical attributes like size and reach, and her recent clear win over Jessica-Rose Clark. He acknowledges both fighters have questionable losses but believes Kianzad's experience and physical advantages will lead to a unanimous decision victory. He is not highly confident, calling it a lean.

"I'm going to be going with Panikad to get the job done by decision."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bethe Correia 0 77 of 169 45% 94 of 186 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:24
Sijara Eubanks 0 59 of 127 46% 77 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bethe Correia 0 31 of 59 52% 48 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Sijara Eubanks 0 11 of 24 45% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bethe Correia 0 21 of 45 46% 21 of 45 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:07
Sijara Eubanks 0 24 of 48 50% 34 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
3 Bethe Correia 0 25 of 65 38% 25 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sijara Eubanks 0 24 of 55 43% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bethe Correia 77 of 169 45% 58 of 138 12 of 23 7 of 8 55 of 140 8 of 10 14 of 19
Sijara Eubanks 59 of 127 46% 42 of 101 12 of 19 5 of 7 54 of 118 5 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bethe Correia 31 of 59 52% 24 of 49 3 of 5 4 of 5 17 of 40 0 of 0 14 of 19
Sijara Eubanks 11 of 24 45% 8 of 19 1 of 2 2 of 3 10 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bethe Correia 21 of 45 46% 13 of 32 6 of 11 2 of 2 19 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sijara Eubanks 24 of 48 50% 16 of 37 8 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 43 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Bethe Correia 25 of 65 38% 21 of 57 3 of 7 1 of 1 19 of 58 6 of 7 0 of 0
Sijara Eubanks 24 of 55 43% 18 of 45 3 of 6 3 of 4 22 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
LOSS vs Irene Aldana
Submission (armbar) R3 3:24 · UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · May 11, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Irene Aldana 0 83 of 247 33% 84 of 248 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Bethe Correia 0 81 of 196 41% 81 of 196 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Irene Aldana 0 21 of 81 25% 22 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bethe Correia 0 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Irene Aldana 0 31 of 96 32% 31 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Bethe Correia 0 39 of 82 47% 39 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Irene Aldana 0 31 of 70 44% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Bethe Correia 0 26 of 65 40% 26 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Irene Aldana 83 of 247 33% 67 of 224 11 of 17 5 of 6 80 of 243 3 of 3 0 of 1
Bethe Correia 81 of 196 41% 43 of 141 18 of 32 20 of 23 80 of 195 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Irene Aldana 21 of 81 25% 18 of 78 1 of 1 2 of 2 21 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 16 of 49 32% 7 of 35 6 of 10 3 of 4 16 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Irene Aldana 31 of 96 32% 23 of 83 6 of 10 2 of 3 28 of 93 3 of 3 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 39 of 82 47% 20 of 57 11 of 16 8 of 9 38 of 81 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Irene Aldana 31 of 70 44% 26 of 63 4 of 6 1 of 1 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 1
Bethe Correia 26 of 65 40% 16 of 49 1 of 6 9 of 10 26 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Holly Holm
KO (head kick and punch) R3 1:09 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Jun 17, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 1 25 of 53 47% 25 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Bethe Correia 0 15 of 65 23% 21 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bethe Correia 0 5 of 25 20% 5 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Holly Holm 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bethe Correia 0 8 of 34 23% 14 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
3 Holly Holm 1 6 of 7 85% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Bethe Correia 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 25 of 53 47% 10 of 33 8 of 12 7 of 8 23 of 50 1 of 1 1 of 2
Bethe Correia 15 of 65 23% 4 of 44 6 of 9 5 of 12 15 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 7 of 13 53% 1 of 6 4 of 4 2 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 5 of 25 20% 1 of 17 2 of 2 2 of 6 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 12 of 33 36% 5 of 22 3 of 7 4 of 4 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 8 of 34 23% 3 of 23 3 of 6 2 of 5 8 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 6 of 7 85% 4 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
Bethe Correia 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Marion Reneau
Draw (majority) (29–27, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Mar 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marion Reneau 0 43 of 95 45% 68 of 128 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:22
Bethe Correia 0 75 of 132 56% 153 of 236 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marion Reneau 0 15 of 37 40% 23 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:20
Bethe Correia 0 20 of 45 44% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marion Reneau 0 26 of 52 50% 33 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Bethe Correia 0 16 of 41 39% 32 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marion Reneau 0 2 of 6 33% 12 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Bethe Correia 0 39 of 46 84% 89 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marion Reneau 43 of 95 45% 20 of 67 15 of 20 8 of 8 40 of 89 1 of 2 2 of 4
Bethe Correia 75 of 132 56% 58 of 111 11 of 12 6 of 9 35 of 89 8 of 9 32 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marion Reneau 15 of 37 40% 8 of 28 2 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 20 of 45 44% 6 of 30 8 of 8 6 of 7 15 of 40 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marion Reneau 26 of 52 50% 11 of 34 12 of 15 3 of 3 23 of 47 1 of 1 2 of 4
Bethe Correia 16 of 41 39% 14 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 35 2 of 2 3 of 4
3 Marion Reneau 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 39 of 46 84% 38 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 1 9 of 14 1 of 2 29 of 30
WIN vs Jessica Eye
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Sep 10, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bethe Correia 0 52 of 199 26% 63 of 210 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jessica Eye 0 49 of 150 32% 69 of 170 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bethe Correia 0 14 of 68 20% 17 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jessica Eye 0 15 of 45 33% 17 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Bethe Correia 0 20 of 75 26% 21 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 18 of 54 33% 19 of 55 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Bethe Correia 0 18 of 56 32% 25 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 16 of 51 31% 33 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bethe Correia 52 of 199 26% 29 of 164 8 of 16 15 of 19 47 of 191 5 of 8 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 49 of 150 32% 32 of 119 4 of 9 13 of 22 44 of 144 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bethe Correia 14 of 68 20% 10 of 58 0 of 3 4 of 7 14 of 66 0 of 2 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 15 of 45 33% 9 of 35 2 of 3 4 of 7 12 of 41 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Bethe Correia 20 of 75 26% 11 of 65 4 of 5 5 of 5 19 of 74 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 18 of 54 33% 11 of 43 2 of 4 5 of 7 18 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bethe Correia 18 of 56 32% 8 of 41 4 of 8 6 of 7 14 of 51 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 16 of 51 31% 12 of 41 0 of 2 4 of 8 14 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Teixeira vs. Evans · Apr 16, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 66 of 171 38% 99 of 209 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:05
Bethe Correia 0 75 of 130 57% 84 of 139 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 18 of 56 32% 27 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Bethe Correia 0 16 of 29 55% 17 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Raquel Pennington 0 25 of 62 40% 35 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Bethe Correia 0 28 of 49 57% 29 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Raquel Pennington 0 23 of 53 43% 37 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:59
Bethe Correia 0 31 of 52 59% 38 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 66 of 171 38% 45 of 137 13 of 23 8 of 11 47 of 141 19 of 30 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 75 of 130 57% 45 of 96 22 of 26 8 of 8 46 of 89 29 of 41 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 18 of 56 32% 14 of 48 2 of 5 2 of 3 17 of 53 1 of 3 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 16 of 29 55% 11 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 3 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 25 of 62 40% 15 of 49 6 of 8 4 of 5 17 of 49 8 of 13 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 28 of 49 57% 18 of 39 8 of 8 2 of 2 14 of 30 14 of 19 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 23 of 53 43% 16 of 40 5 of 10 2 of 3 13 of 39 10 of 14 0 of 0
Bethe Correia 31 of 52 59% 16 of 34 12 of 15 3 of 3 17 of 32 14 of 20 0 of 0