Career Averages - Robert Whittaker
Career Averages - Brad Tavares
Robert Whittaker - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 66 of 142 | 46% | 70 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 67 of 145 | 46% | 192 of 282 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 29 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 37 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 73 of 83 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 66 of 142 | 46% | 62 of 135 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 51 of 123 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 67 of 145 | 46% | 41 of 105 | 26 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 54 of 128 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 34 | 58% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 15 of 35 | 42% | 6 of 19 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 9 of 27 | 33% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 16 of 38 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 20 of 28 | 71% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 4 | Robert Whittaker | 6 of 22 | 27% | 6 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 18 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Robert Whittaker | 11 of 31 | 35% | 9 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Reinier de Ridder | 9 of 18 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.
Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 25 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)
Round 1
An all-international middleweight rumble with immediate championship implications serves as the co-main attraction of UFC 308, one that has as much attention as any non-title tilt lately. Former beltholder Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC) hopes that this next win will propel him back to the top of the mountain, and he will have to deflate undefeated marauder Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) in a five-round affair. Anticipation is high in the building, among fans and the media, and with referee Jason Herzog as well. Everyone takes a deep breath, and the intense fighters do not touch gloves. Whittaker kicks low, and Chimaev tries to go high and misses. Whittaker attacks the lead leg again, and shoots low for a double. Whittaker uses the wall to keep himself upright, and he is dragged down despite grabbing the fence to keep himself afloat. Chimaev gets a hook in around the side, and he starts opening up with left hands while Whittaker is on his knees. Chimaev considers fishing a choke arm around the head, but he elects to impose his body weight down to keep Whittaker stuck. Whittaker keeps his hand attached to his face to defend from any noteworthy strikes, and Chimaev imposes his will and starts slamming knees to the thigh. Whittaker turns the other direction and gets wrenched down flat for a moment, but he posts off his arms to stop Chimaev from getting hold of him. Chimaev takes the back of the former champ, but Whittaker’s savvy scramble gets him out of immediate danger. Chimaev almost instantly hits a mat return, dragging “Bobby Knuckles” to a knee. A few short punches from the Russian get around the guard, and he slithers one arm around the jaw to try to set something up. Whittaker scrambles again, and he bucks off a choke and twists to the side to stop from giving up his back. Chimaev holds on and looks for an elbow on the side of the head, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke grip on the face in a hurry. “Borz” cranks on the face with all his might, and he appears to harm Whittaker with the submission as Whittaker taps frantically in an instant. Chimaev releases the grip when Herzog intervenes, and he hurls his mouthpiece out of the cage to celebrate. Whittaker motions that his jaw or face was injured from the sub, and Chimaev has now prevailed over one of the top talents in the middleweight division with little resistance. It likely cannot be denied who is next for Chimaev, who expresses gratitude for Whittaker accepting the fight with him. Chimaev calls for UFC chief Dana White to give him a shot at the belt, and after that crushing victory, who could say no?
The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Robert Whittaker R1 3:34 via Submission (Face Crank)
Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev as the second leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Chimaev's cardio issues and that Whittaker could survive early and take over late, but believes Chimaev's early pressure and wrestling will be too much. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense hasn't been tested against someone like Chimaev.
Big Brady picks Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He notes that Chimaev has power on the feet and is dangerous on the ground, and that Whittaker has shown vulnerability on the bottom against Dricus du Plessis. He acknowledges that if the fight reaches the third round, Whittaker becomes a live underdog, but he expects Chimaev to get takedowns and finish early. He calls it a great live bet spot for Whittaker if it goes past the first round and a half.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker as a plus 220 underdog, citing Chimaev's cardio issues and history of pulling out due to illness. He notes that Chimaev has been extended in fights against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, and that Whittaker's takedown defense and five-round experience will be crucial. Cody believes that if Whittaker survives the first two rounds, he will take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Chimaev's wrestling may not be as effective against a true middleweight.
Connor picks Whittaker despite a gut feeling that Chimaev will win. He notes that Chimaev's resume against top competition (Burns, Usman) shows he fades and lacks control, while Whittaker has excellent takedown defense and striking. Connor worries about Whittaker's tendency to get caught in big moments but believes if Whittaker survives the early onslaught, he can win the later rounds.
Daniel Vreeland picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, predicting a submission finish via rear-naked choke or D'Arce choke. He highlights Chimaev's dominant grappling performance against Kamaru Usman, noting that Usman's takedown defense was flawless until that fight. Vreeland also references Dricus du Plessis' judo throw on Whittaker as a sign that Whittaker's takedown defense may be vulnerable. He dismisses concerns about Chimaev slowing down, arguing that even in later rounds he can still dominate.
Lucrative James picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, likely inside the distance. He emphasizes Chimaev's wrestling dominance, noting that he has taken down everyone he's wanted to, including elite wrestler Kamaru Usman. He questions Whittaker's chin, pointing out that Whittaker has been hurt in many recent fights, and believes Chimaev can hurt him on the feet or take him down and finish with ground and pound or submission. He acknowledges Whittaker's takedown defense but thinks Chimaev's physicality and grappling are superior.
Whittaker will deal with Chimaev's early onslaught and then run away with the fight in the later rounds. He can get a decision victory or find big shots to put Chimaev away in the fourth or fifth round. Whittaker reestablishes himself among the top middleweights.
Paul picks Robert Whittaker, echoing Cody's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and durability. He highlights that Chimaev has only fought lower-level competition and struggled against Burns and Usman. Paul believes Whittaker's experience and ability to survive the early onslaught will lead to a victory in the later rounds. He also notes that Chimaev's frequent pullouts due to illness are a red flag.
The Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by TKO in the fourth round, arguing that Chimaev's hype exceeds his reality. He believes Whittaker's takedown defense and scrambling will survive Chimaev's early grappling, and that the five-round fight favors Whittaker's cardio. He notes Chimaev's lack of elite wins, his hand injury against Usman, and his tendency to fade. The Guru also mentions the humidity in Abu Dhabi and Chimaev's recent illness as factors. He predicts Chimaev will engage on the feet early, but Whittaker will take over as Chimaev gasses.
Zane picked Whittaker going in, but acknowledged he had to eat crow after Chimaev's dominant first-round submission. He explained that Whittaker when he loses often melts down and makes a mistake, and that getting blown out isn't shocking for a fighter of Chimaev's quality. Zane noted that Chimaev is an all-time great first-round fighter, but still has questions about his performance in later rounds, as he becomes aimless and uncomfortable striking for long periods.
Zane also picks Whittaker, echoing Connor's concerns about Chimaev's cardio and lack of control against top opponents. He notes that Whittaker's takedown defense is elite and that Chimaev's striking is not as polished. Zane adds that Chimaev's recent health issues and lack of passion are red flags, making him lean toward Whittaker.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 14 of 21 | 66% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ikram Aliskerov | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Aliskerov, citing a changing of the guard. He thinks Whittaker is starting to phase out, showing chin issues and getting hit more. He notes Aliskerov has genuine one-punch KO power and can wrestle, though he hasn't shown it in the UFC. He is not confident enough to bet due to the short notice for Aliskerov, but as a pick he goes with the younger fighter.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker confidently, citing the many disadvantages for Aliskerov: short notice, weight cut issues, travel, and a massive step up in competition from Antonio Trócoli to Whittaker. He expects Whittaker's experience and cardio to take over as the fight goes on, predicting a late finish or decision. Brady acknowledges Aliskerov's early danger but believes Whittaker's chances skyrocket after the first round.
Cody picks Whittaker based on his superior striking, footwork, and experience in deep rounds. He notes Whittaker's takedown defense and ability to use a sprawl-and-brawl game plan, while Aliskerov has not faced top-level competition and may fade in later rounds. However, he acknowledges Aliskerov's power and the risk of Whittaker getting caught early.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker but with caution. He notes Whittaker's elite takedown defense, scrambling, and striking (left hook, high kick) but questions his durability and chin, citing recent wobbles. He acknowledges Aliskerov's power and potential but sees the step up in competition as too big. He leans Whittaker but is not fully confident due to Whittaker's long career and possible decline.
Jacob picks Aliskerov, comparing the situation to Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira. He thinks Whittaker's win over Paulo Costa is overrated and that Costa is not a top-five guy. He notes Whittaker gets wobbled often and blitzes in, which plays into Aliskerov's power. He worries about Aliskerov's short notice and two weight cuts but thinks if he lands, he knocks Whittaker out. He has not bet it but picks Aliskerov.
JP picks Aliskerov by decision, comparing him to Dricus du Plessis who beat Whittaker. He believes Aliskerov's pressure and wrestling will overwhelm Whittaker, who has looked a step slower. Brevan agrees, noting Whittaker's decline and Aliskerov's hunger. Both see great value in Aliskerov as a dog and expect him to dominate. They suggest betting on Aliskerov moneyline and possibly by decision.
Paul picks Whittaker, citing his proven track record and the step-up in competition for Aliskerov. He mentions travel advantages for Whittaker and notes that Aliskerov hasn't proven himself against top-tier opponents. Paul expects a competitive fight but leans on Whittaker's experience.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker over Ikram Aliskerov, arguing that Aliskerov's regional wins are not impressive enough to suggest he can finish a former champion. He notes that Aliskerov went to the third round with Dennis Tulin and struggled with other lower-level opponents, while Whittaker has a proven chin and has faced elite competition. He believes Whittaker's experience, takedown defense, and ability to adapt will be key, and that Aliskerov's best path is a knockout, but Whittaker doesn't make the same mistakes as Aliskerov's previous opponents. He admits that if Whittaker loses, it would change his entire view of MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 95 of 175 | 54% | 95 of 175 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 67 of 151 | 44% | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 38 of 62 | 61% | 38 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 32 of 55 | 58% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 25 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paulo Costa | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 95 of 175 | 54% | 63 of 143 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 28 | 95 of 172 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 67 of 151 | 44% | 39 of 117 | 8 of 12 | 20 of 22 | 67 of 151 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 38 of 62 | 61% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 27 of 49 | 55% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 32 of 55 | 58% | 20 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 26 of 54 | 48% | 16 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 58 | 43% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Paulo Costa | 14 of 48 | 29% | 7 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker, citing his well-roundedness, diverse striking, and takedowns. He notes Costa's power and durability but questions his activity. He is slightly worried about Whittaker's chin after the Dricus loss but believes Whittaker's resume and skills outweigh Costa's. He will leave Whittaker out of the safety parlay.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He questions Costa's motivation and activity, noting he's fought only twice in five years and didn't look impressive against Luke Rockhold. He believes Whittaker is the better fighter and more hungry, though he acknowledges Costa's durability and power. He says if Costa doesn't pull out, Whittaker should win a decision.
Cody picks Whittaker, citing his higher volume and tactical approach. He notes that Costa's knockout of Luke Rockhold is less impressive given Rockhold's chin issues. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds total has been steamed, suggesting a decision win for Whittaker. He acknowledges the risk of Costa landing a bomb but trusts Whittaker's jab and fight IQ.
Daniel Vreeland picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Paulo Costa was never that great and has only one win since the pandemic (over an aged Luke Rockhold). He notes Whittaker's losses are only to champions (Adesanya and du Plessis) and that he has a cleaner striking game and better counter-striking. He expects Whittaker to get reads on Costa and outpoint him, possibly finishing late.
Whittaker uses a cagey style, blitzing in and out with hands and kicks. He has underrated wrestling to implement. If he avoids Costa's power, he should win on the scorecards.
Paul acknowledges Whittaker's superior technique, speed, and experience but worries about his durability due to past knockouts and damage from Romero, Adesanya, and DDP. He notes Costa's power and the threat of a one-punch KO, but points out Costa's wins are over shopworn or lower-level opponents. He ultimately picks Whittaker by decision, trusting his jab and footwork to outpoint Costa.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker, citing his speed and movement, and the bigger cage favoring him. He criticizes Paulo Costa's recent performance against Luke Rockhold and his inability to close distance effectively. He notes Whittaker's reach advantage and believes Costa's orthodox stance will be easier to read than Dricus du Plessis's unorthodox style. He predicts a sting-and-move masterclass.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 32 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 62 of 104 | 59% | 74 of 118 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 1 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dricus du Plessis | 31 of 70 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 62 of 104 | 59% | 38 of 77 | 11 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 41 of 77 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dricus du Plessis | 22 of 44 | 50% | 16 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Dricus du Plessis | 9 of 26 | 34% | 7 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 33 of 50 | 66% | 25 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 |
Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.
Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.
Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.
Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.
James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.
Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.
Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 74 of 166 | 44% | 74 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 33 of 116 | 28% | 38 of 121 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 22 of 56 | 39% | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 16 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 10 of 45 | 22% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whittaker | 74 of 166 | 44% | 49 of 138 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 19 | 72 of 163 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 33 of 116 | 28% | 15 of 94 | 7 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 33 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whittaker | 22 of 56 | 39% | 15 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 14 of 41 | 34% | 6 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robert Whittaker | 25 of 53 | 47% | 17 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marvin Vettori | 10 of 45 | 22% | 4 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robert Whittaker | 27 of 57 | 47% | 17 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Marvin Vettori | 9 of 30 | 30% | 5 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.
Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.
Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.
Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.
The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.
Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 1 | 79 of 169 | 46% | 98 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 59 of 136 | 43% | 74 of 151 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 24 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Whittaker | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | 79 of 169 | 46% | 36 of 108 | 14 of 23 | 29 of 38 | 77 of 167 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 59 of 136 | 43% | 38 of 105 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 20 | 54 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Israel Adesanya | 18 of 34 | 52% | 3 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Israel Adesanya | 16 of 41 | 39% | 9 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 33 | 36% | 7 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Israel Adesanya | 17 of 33 | 51% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 12 of 28 | 42% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Israel Adesanya | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 16 of 35 | 45% | 10 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Israel Adesanya | 13 of 22 | 59% | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Whittaker | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adesanya to win by decision in a very competitive fight. He notes that Whittaker's path to victory is grappling, but Marvin Vettori tried that and still lost. He thinks Adesanya has surprises on the ground and is more precise with power. He suggests buying a few rounds on the scorecard for Whittaker as a prop.
Big Brady is confident in Adesanya due to his reach advantage, striking skills, and takedown defense. He dismisses the narrative that Whittaker will wrestle, noting Adesanya stuffed four takedowns from Vettori and still won 50-45. He believes Whittaker will struggle to close distance again, and Adesanya will win comfortably, possibly by late knockout. He calls it one of his most confident picks.
Cody believes Whittaker hasn't shown enough improvement since the first fight to change the outcome. He highlights Adesanya's superior striking and takedown defense, noting that even when taken down, Adesanya gets back up quickly. He thinks Whittaker's chin is compromised from the Yoel Romero wars and that Izzy will eventually land the knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win the rematch, citing Adesanya's precision striking and ability to get inside opponents' heads. He notes that Whittaker has looked good in his three-fight win streak but hasn't shown anything to suggest he can overcome Adesanya's accuracy. Levi also mentions that Whittaker drops his left hand and that Adesanya's jab can change the fight. He expects Adesanya to win by decision this time.
Whittaker has improved since the first fight, with better game planning and activity. He should mix in takedowns and volume to win rounds. Adesanya has been taken down more recently, and Whittaker's style is more elusive than Vettori's. The odds are too wide; Whittaker should be closer to +150. He wins a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody that Adesanya will win again. He notes Whittaker's takedowns against Gastelum were opportunistic and won't work against Adesanya's improved takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks standing at range with Izzy is a losing strategy and expects a similar outcome to the first fight.
The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya by decision, citing his leg kicks, range control, and suspected PED use. He believes Whittaker's patience will play into Adesanya's game and that Adesanya's takedown defense and ability to get up will be key.
Brad Tavares - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 1 | 48 of 86 | 55% | 55 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Eryk Anders | 0 | 35 of 84 | 41% | 68 of 133 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 9:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Eryk Anders | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 33 of 56 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:10 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 1 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Eryk Anders | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:25 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Eryk Anders | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 48 of 86 | 55% | 29 of 64 | 17 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 59 | 14 of 21 | 3 of 6 |
| Eryk Anders | 35 of 84 | 41% | 26 of 69 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 47 | 19 of 36 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 18 of 35 | 51% | 7 of 23 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 18 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Eryk Anders | 20 of 41 | 48% | 17 of 34 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 18 of 31 | 58% | 11 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 6 |
| Eryk Anders | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 12 of 20 | 60% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Eryk Anders | 4 of 12 | 33% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Brad Tavares but with very low confidence, calling it too close to bet. He notes both fighters have declining chins and the fight could be a quick knockout or a sloppy decision. He thinks Tavares is more well-rounded and faster, but Eryk Anders could bull his way forward. He ultimately goes with Tavares due to technical edge.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Eryk Anders by split decision, calling it a '1-800 Gambler fight.' He thinks both fighters are washed but gives Anders the edge due to slightly harder punching and ability to control against the cage. He predicts a low-quality fight and even considered predicting a draw.
Cody picks Tavares, citing his experience, takedown defense, and ability to outpoint Anders. He notes Anders' declining durability and retirement announcement. He expects a close decision but Tavares edges it.
Connor does not make a clear pick for this fight, calling it a toss-up and meaningless. He criticizes both fighters as old and irrelevant, suggesting the fight should not be happening in the UFC. He does not express a preference.
James picks Eryk Anders as an underdog, citing his grappling advantage and power. He notes that both fighters have fading durability and that Anders is more explosive. He calls the fight volatile and says no result would shock him.
The host picks Tavares to win by decision, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He believes Anders will struggle to land a knockout and that Tavares's combinations and effective damage will win rounds. He notes that both fighters are aging but Tavares is the better striker and should outwork Anders over 15 minutes.
Paul has no clear pick, expressing uncertainty about both fighters. He notes Tavares' recent losses and Anders' inconsistency. He doesn't want to bet either side.
The Guru picks Brad Tavares, emphasizing his low kicks as the key difference. He notes Anders has a wide stance and has struggled with low kicks before, and that Tavares has fought higher-level competition. He predicts a decision win, 30-27, as he doesn't see Anders finishing Tavares early.
Zane picks Brad Tavares, noting that Tavares looked decent in his fight against GM3 but struggled against Robert Brishik, who pushed a pace. He believes Anders is also slow and throws single strikes, giving Tavares enough space to look like his old self. However, he acknowledges Tavares tends to lose a round due to passivity.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 42 of 102 | 41% | 50 of 111 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Robert Bryczek | 1 | 68 of 138 | 49% | 77 of 149 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 25 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Robert Bryczek | 1 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 48 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Bryczek | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Bryczek | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 42 of 102 | 41% | 17 of 69 | 8 of 13 | 17 of 20 | 41 of 100 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 68 of 138 | 49% | 47 of 104 | 16 of 27 | 5 of 7 | 43 of 101 | 9 of 16 | 16 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 17 of 40 | 42% | 12 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 39 of 73 | 53% | 26 of 56 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 46 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 13 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 15 of 40 | 37% | 3 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 9 of 28 | 32% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 10 of 22 | 45% | 2 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 20 of 37 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 8 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tavares (-220); Bryczek (+190)
Round 1
Longtime veteran Tavares (21-10, 16-10 UFC) had his most recent contract come to an end, and after a brief time of uncertainty he was brought back to the promotion he joined by winning the 11th season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” While he has faced many of the best fighters in the history of the middleweight division, he draws a Polish adversary in Bryczek (17-6, 0-1 UFC) that may be a bit less decorated but is just as dangerous given his stoppage rate above 70%. Referee Lukasz Bosacki draws the charge to handle the 185ers, who clap hands to initiate the match.
Bryczek puts his foot on the gas, chasing the longtime vet around, and he finds himself in the pocket with Tavares. This results in them both trading, and Tavares backs off and takes a body shot and a jab up top. Tavares replies with a pushing front kick, and he catches Bryczek ducking down with a pair of punches on the temple. Tavares stays on his back foot, firing off kicks as Bryczek advances towards him. Bryczek continues marching ever forward, with Tavares more than ready to counter, his right hand ready for action. Bryczek smacks the front leg of his foe with a kick, and puts his guard up to block a one-two that he expects. Bryczek swings for the fences and knocks Tavares clean off his feet. Tavares works his way up with the wall, but Bryczek is swarming him with fists to the dome and guts. Tavares ties him up to clear the cobwebs, and Bryczek settles for a few knees to the thigh before breaking off.
Tavares circles away, letting fly kicks and a pair of punches up high, and the Polish athlete is incensed and ready for destruction. He lays into Tavares with punches in bunches, dropping Tavares to a knee as he tries to put his man away. Tavares is able to get back up despite being under fire, and he even manages some looping counters. When Bryczek overcommits on his attack, Tavares times a magnificent double-leg takedown to put the heavy-handed Polish fighter on his back. The nose of the Hawaiian is busted open and leaking on the mat, but he pays it no mind as he climbs into half guard and recovers. Tavares does some work on top but is largely content to control the remainder of the round and take a possible 10-8 score off the table—although that remains to be seen if judges believe the damage was substantial enough to award such a score. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Bryczek
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Bryczek
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-8 Bryczek
Round 2
The second round kicks off with a barrage of kicks from the Hawaiian, using them to keep distance and prevent Bryczek from hurling big hands at him. The low kicks are starting to mark up the lead leg of Bryczek, who is lumbering awkwardly on it as he advances. Tavares is the quicker of the two, as Bryczek may have punched himself out in the first round, because Bryczek cannot reach him. As Bryczek plods towards his man, Tavares shoots in on his hips. Bryczek knows it is coming and defends it, and he stands up and avoids a right hand zooming at his jaw.
Bryczek bears down on Tavares, replying with his own chopping kicks as he makes his way forward. Tavares lets fly a three-punch salvo that hits nothing but air, but his technical kickboxing is stifling Bryczek for the most part. Tavares backs himself to the wall and quickly realizes he needs to reposition himself, scurrying to the side as he spams the leg kick. Bryczek no-sells a head kick as he goes after Tavares, but his offense is otherwise fairly muted. The fans do not like this pick-and-poke strategy of low intensity, perhaps spoiled by the action of the previous bouts as well as this one’s first round, and they start booing heartily. A storied veteran with a lot of decisions on his ledger, the audience has no effect on the Hawaiian. He keeps his distance and probes with kicks and one-twos until the not-so-great round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Round 3
The middleweights touch ‘em up to show some respect opening the final frame, and Bryczek gets back to his forward-or-bust strategy. Tavares welcomes this, as he is able to simultaneously hop on his bike and land enough strikes to gain the upper hand. The Hawaiian puts some mustard into a body kick, and Bryczek does not like it and twirls around to take some of the sting out of it. When Bryczek gathers his thoughts, he marches Tavares down and guns for him with big, swinging fists. Tavares’ are straighter, jabbing and getting off one-twos. With a full head of steam, Bryczek attacks. Backing Tavares up to the fence, Bryczek strings together a prolonged combination of looping punches, cracking Tavares with a heavy right hand.
Stunned, Tavares starts to go down to a knee while still under fire, and Bryczek continues battering the grizzled veteran with all he has. With Bryczek hammering away with hammerfists as some land directly on the back of the head, Bosacki steps in, and Tavares immediately protests the stoppage.
His team is equally upset about what they feel was premature referee intervention, but as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout, that’s a wrap. Bryczek notches his first UFC victory and it is a huge scalp he collects by melting a formerly ranked fighter in Tavares.
The Official Result
Robert Bryczek def. Brad Tavares R3 1:43 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo leans towards Brad Tavares based on experience and toughness, but is surprised Tavares is nearly a 3-to-1 favorite given his age and decline. He acknowledges Bryczek's clean boxing and power, and notes that a one-punch knockout or decision win for Bryczek wouldn't surprise him. He advises against betting Tavares at these odds, warning that Bryczek is not a bum.
Big Brady is hesitant but picks Brad Tavares, as he wants to fade Tavares but cannot trust Bryczek after his poor performance. He notes Tavares has looked done since taking heavy damage, but Bryczek looked even worse, gassing quickly. He expects a decision win for Tavares.
The host expects a classic performance from Tavares but notes his deteriorating durability and decline. He acknowledges Bryczek could spoil plans with a big shot, but thinks Tavares keeps it clean and outpoints Bryczek to a decision victory.
The Guru picks Brad Tavares, dismissing Robert Bryczek as 'terrible' and 'dog [__]'. He criticizes Bryczek's debut performance and regional record, while noting Tavares has been competitive against proven UFC fighters. He expects a standup fight and predicts a 29-28 split decision for Tavares, citing his experience and well-roundedness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 47 of 109 | 43% | 56 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 38 of 83 | 45% | 51 of 97 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 13 of 36 | 36% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 26 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 47 of 109 | 43% | 29 of 85 | 12 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 45 of 105 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 38 of 83 | 45% | 27 of 66 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 36 of 79 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 13 of 36 | 36% | 10 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 26 of 51 | 50% | 15 of 38 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 23 of 44 | 52% | 18 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 21 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 8 of 22 | 36% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 7 of 15 | 46% | 4 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tavares (-258), Meerschaert (+210)
Round 1
As the main card carries on, the few hundred fans in the building will be treated to a fascinating clash of styles pitting the UFC middleweight decision leader against the division’s all-time top finisher. Tavares (20-10, 15-10 UFC) prefers to stand, while Meerschaert (37-18, 12-10 UFC) is hunting for his 30th submission—and Tavares has never before been submitted. Something might have to give before all is said and done here. Referee Mike Beltran draws the assignment, ready to step in at a moment’s notice. The grizzled veterans show respect for one another with a glove touch, and Tavares pops out his jab. Meerschaert surges forward, pulling back before letting go with anything. Tavares prepares for a counter when Meerschaert comes at him, dinging the grappler with a hard left hand. Meerschaert zooms forward, looking for a double and ending up pushing the Hawaiian against the fencing. When Tavares breaks free, Meerschaert goes after him and plants a left hand on the chin. He ducks down to try this strike again, and this time it lands cleaner. Tavares backs him off with a crisp boxing combo, and Meerschaert shoots in for a double but is totally shut down. Tavares misses a right hand by a matter of inches, but the body kick that follows does land. Tavares puts his fist on Meerschaert’s chin, and he dips in with a shovel uppercut that brushes past the jaw. The two crash together, and Tavares rings his foe’s bell with an elbow, giving chase with a left hand and a body kick. Meerschaert fakes a level change to buzz by his foe, and he pitches out a couple calf kicks. Tavares advances, is intercepted and still snaps out a jab. Meerschaert kicks him in the lead leg again, and he leans back and gets drilled with a long two-punch string right down the middle. Tavares clips Meerschaert a second time with a right hand, and “GM3” catches a kick and zips a kick back at his adversary’s head. Tavares comes up short with a spinning back fist, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Round 2
Fists are bumped to start off the second round, and Tavares gets right behind a double jab. Tavares plunks Meerschaert with a right hand and has a high kick buzz past his hair. Tavares plants a heavy leg kick that strips the legs out beneath the grappler, and Beltran allows him to stand up as Tavares does not want to hit the ground with him. Meerschaert blitzes forward, landing at the end of a pair of combinations and backing off from front kicks. He then charges again, scoring twice with a solid lefts before mashing Tavares against the cage. “GM3” slashes with an elbow on the break, and he sneaks in a left hand as Tavares clutches his jaw awkwardly. Tavares overswings, and Meerschaert ducks down to level change. Tavares stonewalls him, boots him in the face and then slams a leg kick home. Two heavy punches from the Hawaiian get through, and Meerschaert answers him with two doubled lefts. He tries this double-left attack two more times, and Tavares sees it coming and circles off. Meerschaert connects with a powerful uppercut to push Tavares back, and he hammers Tavares with a body kick after they split up. Meerschaert sells out for a single that comes up way short of succeeding, and Tavares backs him away with a front kick and a blistering uppercut. Meerschaert shells up to defend a body kick, and the front kick that follows gets through. Tavares skirts away from looping punches, and they clash legs when kicking at the same moment. Tavares slips in a one-two, gets his head snapped back and still lands. Meerschaert throws back harder, and he gets Tavares’ attention just a moment. Body kicks fly from both men, and Tavares winds up with a right hand that staggers the grappler. “GM3” shakes out the cobwebs and scores as left hand down the middle. The bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tavares
Round 3
Fists are bumped, and fighters engage right after it with clubbing punches. Meerschaert darts in for a takedown, and he runs directly into a body kick. Tavares hops back and in with a jab, and he runs forward and is tripped. Meerschaert lets him back up so he can target the body a few times, and Tavares kicks him in the guts and has to defend a takedown. Meerschaert nearly gets him down, Tavares pulls a finger off the wall and bounces off well enough to stay upright. Meerschaert clings to his side, fishing his legs in for a trip. Beltran asks for more activity as “GM3” hangs on from partial back control standing, and he kicks out Tavares’ other foot for a second of instability. He kicks the same foot again, and Tavares has to rejigger himself to not get tripped up. Meerschaert keeps attacking the feet when not trying to use his body weight to wrench Tavares down, and the Hawaiian is able to defend well enough as precious seconds tick off the clock. Beltran needs something more from the fighters, and Meerschaert exerts himself but is not able to get it down. Tavares puts his back to the fence, and his takedown defense is enough to stifle the Kill Cliff FC fighter’s every effort. Beltran breaks them apart with 70 seconds left, and Meerschaert practically runs towards his opponent flailing his fists, Tavares is more composed with straight strikes, and he has his kick parried and he rolls with a punch. Meerschaert lunges at him with two left hands to then go after a single, and Tavares breaks free with 15 seconds to go. Meerschaert runs forward, lets fly a body kick, and he slings three unsuccessful head kicks to conclude the lackluster pairing.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert (29-28 Tavares)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert (29-28 Tavares)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert (29-28 Tavares)
The Official Result
Brad Tavares def. Gerald Meerschaert via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo notes Brad Tavares has fought everyone and has solid striking and 80% takedown defense, while Gerald Meerschaert is a good grappler but sucks on the feet and gets hit a lot. He warns that taking Meerschaert down is dangerous, but Tavares has the fight IQ to avoid that. Angelo picks Tavares but thinks the odds are high for a guy with only one win in three years, and suggests a 'win inside the distance' prop might be a sharp play.
Big Brady picks the underdog Gerald Meerschaert, citing Brad Tavares's decline after the Dricus du Plessis fight and poor recent performances. He believes Meerschaert has underrated striking and a huge grappling advantage, and expects him to submit Tavares in the second round.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Meerschaert. He emphasizes that Tavares is a neutralizer who no longer believes in his own power and doesn't follow up on damage. Connor notes that Meerschaert has become craftier on the feet and that Tavares's defensive shell will be his downfall. He calls the matchup terrible matchmaking but sees Meerschaert as the logical winner.
Tavares is clearly diminishing at 1-4 in his last five fights. Meerschaert can push a pace and get the grappling going in the first and second rounds, leading to a classic Meerschaert submission in round two or three.
The Guru picks Brad Tavares, emphasizing his takedown defense and ability to keep the fight standing. He thinks Meerschaert's body kicks and takedown attempts will be slow and predictable, and Tavares will be snappier on the feet. He expects a decision win for Tavares, though notes Meerschaert comes alive in the third round.
Zane picks Meerschaert, arguing that Brad Tavares is 'cooked' and no longer dangerous. He notes Tavares's lack of motivation, tendency to shell up when hurt, and inability to finish fights. Zane points out that Meerschaert has improved his boxing and reach usage, and has a win over Bruno Silva who knocked out Tavares. He believes Meerschaert's willingness to win and Tavares's decline make Meerschaert the clear pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JunYong Park | 0 | 65 of 149 | 43% | 73 of 159 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 99 of 177 | 55% | 124 of 210 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 6:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JunYong Park | 0 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 21 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 2 | JunYong Park | 0 | 31 of 80 | 38% | 31 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 67 of 108 | 62% | 68 of 109 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | JunYong Park | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 35 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JunYong Park | 65 of 149 | 43% | 55 of 136 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 62 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
| Brad Tavares | 99 of 177 | 55% | 76 of 151 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 20 | 91 of 167 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JunYong Park | 26 of 57 | 45% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Brad Tavares | 19 of 46 | 41% | 12 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JunYong Park | 31 of 80 | 38% | 27 of 73 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 31 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 67 of 108 | 62% | 52 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 14 | 64 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JunYong Park | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 13 of 23 | 56% | 12 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
Angelo picks Brad Tavares, citing his experience and takedown defense. He notes that Park Jun-yong is not dangerous enough to finish Tavares, lacking one-punch power and nasty takedowns. Angelo believes Tavares will defend takedowns and land clean strikes for a straightforward win.
Big Brady picks Park Jun-yong by decision. He thinks the fight will be close and go to the judges, but he cannot pick Brad Tavares due to his decline. Tavares has taken a lot of damage and looked poor in recent fights, including a lackluster win over Chris Weidman. Park was on a five-fight win streak before a close loss to Andre Muniz. Brady expects the fight to stay on the feet and Park to do better work, though it could be a close decision.
Connor also picks Park but is hesitant, noting that Tavares still has great takedown defense and can strike. He points out that Park's best path is through grappling, but Tavares stuffs takedowns. Connor thinks Park can win a striking battle because Tavares doesn't throw combinations and is passive, but it's a risky fight for Park.
Daniel highlights Park's well-rounded skills, pace, and wrestling ability, noting that he was close to knocking out RoboCop. He criticizes Tavares's recent decline, pointing out that RoboCop walked through him with zero respect. Daniel believes Park's physicality and durability will be key, and he predicts a knockout victory, citing that Park has been overdue for his first UFC KO.
Tavares is on a rough run but this is a winnable matchup if he keeps it in the striking realm. Park has decent power but not enough to catch Tavares. Tavares will land better strikes, leg kicks, stop takedowns, and win on the scorecards over 15 minutes.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares, noting that Tavares cannot be taken down and has good cardio. He criticizes Park Jun-yong's striking and believes Tavares will out-strike him for a TKO or decision. He acknowledges Tavares has been KO'd recently but sees Park lacking the power to finish him.
Zane picks Park but is hesitant because Tavares has excellent takedown defense, which neutralizes Park's best weapon. He notes that Park's striking is crafty but he is short and gets hit often, and Tavares is a durable defensive striker who doesn't leave many openings. Zane trusts Park to win a kickboxing match due to his volume and trap-setting, but acknowledges it's a tough fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 37 of 84 | 44% | 42 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 71 of 123 | 57% | 79 of 135 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 19 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 26 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 24 of 34 | 70% | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 37 of 84 | 44% | 28 of 70 | 4 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 71 of 123 | 57% | 53 of 102 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 12 | 64 of 114 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 14 of 30 | 46% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 25 of 49 | 51% | 19 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 20 of 43 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 18 of 39 | 46% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 22 of 40 | 55% | 13 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 5 of 15 | 33% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 24 of 34 | 70% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo describes Gregory Rodrigues as a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt and good takedown defense, and notes he is a threat everywhere. Brad Tavares is tough and experienced but not dangerous, with only two finishes in 15 UFC wins. Angelo believes Rodrigues' forward pressure and power will win the fight, likely by decision due to Tavares' durability.
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Rodrigues has power and durability issues, but Tavares has no finishing ability and is getting older. He expects Rodrigues to march forward and land a big shot, knocking out Tavares. He mentions that Tavares couldn't finish 41-year-old Matt Wyman, which was a terrible look.
Cody picks Rodrigues, noting Tavares lacks power and has not knocked anyone out in years. He thinks Rodrigues' size and pressure will be too much, and that Tavares' low volume and lack of finishing ability play into Rodrigues' hands. Cody expects a decision win for Rodrigues, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.
Tavares has a striking advantage and solid takedown defense. He should be able to control the fight with leg kicks and counter striking. Rodrigues may strike himself exhausted trying to finish. Tavares' durability is a non-issue, and his losses are to top-tier competition. At +195, this is a no-brainer spot for the veteran to win by decision.
Paul agrees, calling Tavares a gatekeeper who doesn't pose many threats. He notes Tavares' lack of knockout power and that Rodrigues is huge for the weight class. Paul thinks Rodrigues' grappling and pressure will be decisive, and that Tavares' takedown defense may not hold up. He expects a clear decision for Rodrigues.
The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues with high confidence, criticizing Brad Tavares for not finishing a compromised Chris Weidman. He believes Tavares is not high-level and lacks punch power. He expects Rodrigues to find a TKO win on the feet, as he does not think Tavares can put him away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 0 | 37 of 92 | 40% | 39 of 94 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 70 of 115 | 60% | 71 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 22 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Chris Weidman | 0 | 27 of 42 | 64% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Tavares | 37 of 92 | 40% | 30 of 77 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 35 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 70 of 115 | 60% | 21 of 61 | 8 of 9 | 41 of 45 | 68 of 113 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Tavares | 7 of 20 | 35% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 16 of 29 | 55% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brad Tavares | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 32 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 27 of 44 | 61% | 8 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 16 | 25 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brad Tavares | 10 of 31 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Weidman | 27 of 42 | 64% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 21 | 27 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Brad Tavares despite believing Chris Weidman is the better fighter everywhere. He cites Weidman's two-year layoff, age (39), and horrific leg injury as major unknowns. He thinks Tavares will be a step ahead and faster, but admits he could be wrong and hopes Weidman wins. He advises against betting this fight due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Brad Tavares to win by third-round knockout, calling it his hot take. He believes Weidman's takedown attempts will be stuffed by Tavares' elite takedown defense, wearing on Weidman's gas tank. Brady notes Weidman hasn't impressed since 2017 and has been knocked out in all six losses, while Tavares is tough and has never been knocked out.
Cody argues that Tavares is a gatekeeper with no knockout power and all his wins are by decision against lower-level opponents. Weidman, despite the leg break and layoff, has a wrestling advantage and could control Tavares. He thinks the line is too favorable to Tavares and likes Weidman as a value underdog, likely by decision.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Brad Tavares, arguing that Weidman has been washed up since pre-pandemic and has declined significantly since USADA testing. He notes that Weidman has been knocked out in six of his last eight fights and gasses after round one. Levi praises Tavares' takedown defense and balance, and believes Tavares will stuff takedowns, get Weidman to a fatigue state, and either out-volume or knock him out. He is waiting for a better price but is comfortable with Tavares.
Lucrative James confidently picks Brad Tavares, citing Chris Weidman's horrific leg injury, age (39), and being washed before the injury. He believes Tavares will finish Weidman, as Weidman has been finished in six of his last seven fights. He sees no value on the underdog here.
Weidman has a clear path to victory via grappling. Tavares is not a knockout threat and has been taken down by wrestlers before. Weidman's durability has held up recently, and at +220 the line is too wide. He should be able to grind out a decision or possibly find a submission.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares over Chris Weidman. He cites Weidman's long layoff after a leg break and doubts his KO ability. He praises Tavares' takedown defense and durability, noting he hung in with Dricus du Plessis. He expects Tavares to outpoint Weidman on the feet, possibly winning by TKO in rounds 2-3 or a 30-27 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 15 of 64 | 23% | 15 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 1 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruno Silva | 0 | 15 of 64 | 23% | 15 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brad Tavares | 1 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Silva | 15 of 64 | 23% | 11 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 23 of 51 | 45% | 17 of 40 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruno Silva | 15 of 64 | 23% | 11 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brad Tavares | 23 of 51 | 45% | 17 of 40 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tavares (-155), Silva (+135)
Round 1
A banger at 185 pounds is on deck for the co-headliner of this Fight Night, as Tavares (19-7, 14-7 UFC) looks to hold the middleweight line against the lead-fisted Silva (22-8, 3-2 UFC). One of these two fighters will get back in the win column here and potentially push their way back into the top 15, and they will have 15 minutes at max to do so. Referee Mark Smith has donned his hard hat, and the two fighters bump fists in front of his eyes. Tavares doubles up on the jab after the bump, and Silva springs out of the way. Silva walks forward and ducks a big punch, and he misses the mark with his own heavy left hook. Silva lets go with a leg kick, and Tavares intercepts him with a powerful body kick. Tavares times a right and a left, with the left landing behind the ear and getting Silva’s attention. Tavares boots Silva upside the head, and Silva blocks most of it and throws back with a vengeance. A long jab from Tavares makes Silva stumble, but Silva gathers his bearings and knocks Tavares back with a right hand. The Hawaiian releases a kick to the ribs, a one-two and a front kick in rapid succession, and Silva attempts to tie him up and knee him in the face. The two middleweights throw from their hips, and they reset to exchange from a distance. Silva leans down to guard a body kick, and he counters a reaching Tavares with an uppercut. They trade single, long punches, and Tavares lets fly a high kick. Silva sneaks a right hand over the top to rock Tavares, and the Hawaiian wobbles back but is still very much in the fight. Silva trades back when Tavares engages with him, and Silva stings Tavares with a short combination.
“Blindado” uncoils a powerful knee and a blindingly fast right hand that gets around the guard, and Tavares collapses to his back. Smith halts the fight when Tavares goes down, and Tavares immediately complains that he was not knocked out and was still in the fight.
Regardless of the feelings of the stoppage, the result is what it is, and Silva has turned things around to record a very important knockout. Silva reminds the division of the power in his fists with this victory, and he may have claimed a spot in the top 15 at the expense of ranked Chris Curtis.
The Official Result
Bruno Silva def. Brad Tavares R1 3:35 via TKO (Knee and Punch)
Angelo picks Bruno Silva despite his recent loss, attributing it to a bad night. He believes in Silva's raw talent, power, and BJJ, and thinks he can beat Brad Tavares who is well-rounded but not exceptional at anything. He acknowledges the risk and advises others to do their own research, noting that if you think Silva is broken, then pick Tavares. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Bruno Silva as a dog to knock out Brad Tavares in the first round. He is hesitant because Silva looked awful in his last fight, appearing sluggish and drunk, but if the 'sober' Silva shows up, he has the power to knock out Tavares, who has been knocked out multiple times. Brady is scared by Silva's last performance and won't put a ton of money on him, but he still picks Silva to win early.
Cody picks Bruno Silva as an underdog, criticizing Brad Tavares as one-dimensional and not exceptional. He notes Tavares fades in later rounds and allows opponents to outwork him, as seen against Dricus du Plessis. Cody believes Silva has power and can land damaging strikes, possibly getting a knockout or winning a decision. He mentions Silva went 15 minutes with Alex Pereira and landed heavy shots.
Connor picks Tavares, arguing that Silva is one-dimensional and falls apart when his wild hooks are neutralized. He notes that Tavares is a solid defensive wrestler and technical striker, and that Silva's inefficiency will cause him to gas. However, he acknowledges that Silva hits hard and could catch Tavares if he gets into a lull, but overall Tavares should grind out a win.
Brad Tavares has good striking defense and durability, as shown against Dricus du Plessis where he was not knocked down. He can mix in takedowns to avoid Bruno Silva's power. Silva is knockout-reliant and has poor takedown defense; he tends to get outstruck by technical strikers. Tavares should be able to outwork Silva over three rounds, using combinations and leg/body kicks. Silva may slow down, allowing Tavares to increase output and win a decision.
Paul also picks Bruno Silva, agreeing with Cody that Brad Tavares is not someone he likes as a favorite. He sees a path for Silva to win by decision or knockout, noting Tavares' durability may be fading. However, Paul admits he is not actually betting this fight, calling it a pass for betting purposes.
The MMA Guru picks Brad Tavares over Bruno Silva. He notes Silva's loss to GM3 and damage from Pereira, while Tavares has a granite chin and good grappling. He thinks Tavares can use his takedowns and technical striking to win. He is not fully confident but leans toward Tavares.
Zane picks Tavares but is hesitant, noting that Tavares is fundamentally solid but hasn't evolved and often lulls in fights. He worries that Silva's power and awkwardness could catch Tavares, similar to how Dricus du Plessis did. However, he thinks Silva is too messy and inefficient, and that Tavares's defensive wrestling and jab should carry him to a decision win.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!