UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. LaFlare · Mar 21, 2015 · Lightweight · Completed
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Age 39
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 11"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Gilbert Burns
3.15 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.64 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.12 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Alex Oliveira
2.99 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.55 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
2.35 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Gilbert Burns - Fight History
LOSS vs Mike Malott
KO R3 2:08 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 40 of 92 43% 42 of 94 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:01
Mike Malott 2 56 of 121 46% 56 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 11 of 38 28% 12 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gilbert Burns 0 23 of 37 62% 24 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Mike Malott 0 22 of 53 41% 22 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gilbert Burns 0 6 of 17 35% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Mike Malott 2 21 of 34 61% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 40 of 92 43% 16 of 60 10 of 12 14 of 20 39 of 89 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mike Malott 56 of 121 46% 51 of 112 3 of 6 2 of 3 44 of 103 1 of 4 11 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 11 of 38 28% 3 of 26 5 of 7 3 of 5 10 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Malott 13 of 34 38% 10 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 13 of 32 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 23 of 37 62% 11 of 23 3 of 3 9 of 11 23 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mike Malott 22 of 53 41% 21 of 48 1 of 4 0 of 1 22 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gilbert Burns 6 of 17 35% 2 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 4 6 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Malott 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 18 1 of 2 11 of 14
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-375); Burns (+275)

Round 1
The year is 2026, and the UFC has elected to put a fighter in Burns (22-9, 15-9 UFC) on a four-fight losing streak in a main event. He will be placed in hostile territory, perhaps set up as a stepping stone. Ready to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank, he comes to blows with proud Canadian Malott (13-2-1, 6-1 UFC). Whether a passing of the torch moment or one that shows levels to the game, referee Herb Dean will be here for them every step of the way. He brings them together to issue final instructions, and they share a fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Burns lashes out with a leg kick, and Malott sees it coming and brings his leg in to partially check it. Burns kicks off, and his foot bounces into the cup. Malott adjusts his groin and tells Dean he is good to continue, so they do not pause. Malott chases Burns to the cage behind a pair of punches, and he leans over to let a massive overhand right from the Brazilian buzz behind his neck. Burns whiffs on two more big hooks, but his digging left to the liver gets in twice. Malott swings back hard enough to make Burns think twice about coming in recklessly, and he goes for a takedown only to get stood up. Malott resets and sticks out four punches. Burns fights off a takedown shot, lets Malott hit the ground and bounce back up, and fires out a kick that pounds into his foe’s pectoral. Malott calmly jabs and rolls with the right hand he knows is coming.
Burns kicks at the front leg and is backed off with a left hand, and he defends the uppercuts and wings a right hand as Malott bends over. Burns ducks down for a takedown shot, and he bails it to loose two haymakers that hit nothing but air. Malott times a straight right hand down Broadway as Burns is aiming a leg kick, giving chase as Burns circles away. Burns shoots again, and the Canadian is a stone wall and does not give an inch. Burns backs off and bounces on his heels, tossing out a left hook that brushes the nose. Both men let fly heavy hooks, and Burns follows his land with a chopping kick. Malott looks for a hefty counter, and Burns evades it but cannot get out of the way of a calf kick. Malott leaps forward to land a body kick on the abdomen, landing to sling two hooks behind it. Burns tries to jump for an attack of his own, but time expires while he is in the air so he just lands normally.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 2
The two men bump fists before getting after it. Burns nails the front leg with a kick so hard, Malott drops to a knee. His calf is glowing red just a few seconds into the second round, and Burns is aware of this and does not go after it recklessly. Instead, Burns sets up the kick with blows to other targets. As he is backed off from a one-two, a thin trickle of blood leaks out of the Brazilian’s nostril, who shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Burns rebounds to kick the inner leg of his foe, and he drills a right hand on the side of Malott’s head. Burns kicks low to punch high again, even leaping with a Superman punch. Malott backs him off behind his fists, even as Burns loops a left hand back at him. Burns scores with one more hard calf kick and a left hand after it. Malott splits his guard with an uppercut and appears to shake Burns up, who retreats in a hurry. A shiner and some blood immediately develops under Burns’ left eye, as he backs off to defend himself while Malott goes on the offensive. Malott rips uppercuts and loops his right hand around the guard, staying in range just long enough to land but not leaving himself open for Burns’ big swings.
Burns wears the strikes well but is showing damage all over, and he cannot quite secure the home run blow he is seeking. Malott sneaks in an uppercut, and Burns counters with an overhand right and waves Malott on for more. When Malott does not bite, Burns shoots for a takedown. Malott shucks him to the side and sticks a jab in his face, staying calm and composed. Malott beats Burns to the punch and forces him to spin away with a left hook. Both men lunge at one another with power, but nothing significant lands as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Malott

Round 3
Burns takes directly to the center of the cage to engage, doubling up on a jab to sling his big right hand. Malott shies away from the heavy blow and circles around to give chase to Burns. After almost 30 seconds of staring, Burns swings for the bleachers with his right hand twice. Malott laughs them off and sprawls smoothly to defuse the takedown attempt before anything comes of it. Malott backs Burns to the fence with his long, straight punches, staying at his preferred distance to not get caught with the counter. Burns tries and fails to bash him with his right hand, but he leaves himself wide open for an uppercut and a left hook that puts Burns down hard. Burns climbs back up but is compromised, leading to Malott knocking him down again with a blistering right hand. Burns hits his side and is not about to go anywhere, so Malott hammers the nail with a final onslaught of concussive fists that force Dean to step in. The crowd, understandably, goes wild. Malott has earned the biggest win of his career in his most significant fight to date, and he does it by knockout after going toe-to-toe with a powerful striker. Canada may not have won the night in terms of individual matchups, going 4-5 throughout the billing, but Malott prevailed when it mattered most.
The logjam of the welterweight title picture has yet another contender, and as this sport gives, it also takes. A heartbroken “Durinho” leaves his gloves in the center of the cage to signal his retirement, overcome by emotion but still more than willing to give it up for the man that just put him down. The respectful victor has nothing but positive things to say about his opponent, his team and his fans. He does not have any opponent set as he hopes to work his way up the ladder, instead saying he will do so the “Proper” way. When he competes again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Gilbert Burns R3 2:08 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Angelo picks Mike Malott with extreme confidence, calling Gilbert Burns too old, slow, and not durable. He notes Gilbert is on a four-fight losing streak and has not submitted anyone recently. He recommends parlaying Malott heavily, saying the odds are too wide and should be much higher.

Parlay Mike Malott heavily, even if he's minus 11,000.
"Mike Malott's the pick. Parlay the [ __ ] out of him, even if he's minus 11,000. Like, this is unbelievably straightforward."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Big Brady hesitantly picks Mike Malott, despite calling him overrated. He criticizes Malott's takedown defense, questionable cardio, and low volume, but notes his power. Brady also doubts Gilbert Burns' durability and age (40). He predicts Malott wins by second-round knockout but says he will not bet on the fight.

second round knockout; no bet
"I'm taking Mike Malott. I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout, but this is a fight I will not be betting on."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Gilbert Burns because he sees value in the plus money and questions Mike Malott's cardio in later rounds. He notes that Burns has fought top competition and that Malott has never been past three rounds. He also mentions that the line movement towards Burns supports his pick.

round 4 and round 5 props
"I end up with a Gilbert Burns play. I know it's going to upset some people I know personally. And you know, don't shoot the messenger. It's just uh sometimes it's more economics than you going with your heart."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

Daniel believes Mike Malott is catching Gilbert Burns at a great time, as Burns is nearly 40 and on a decline. He thinks Malott's explosiveness and freshness will be key, and that Burns will show signs of aging when hit. He predicts Malott will finish Burns.

"I think Mike Malot's going to come out here in Winnipeg, Canada, and I think he's going to finish Gilbert Dorinho Burns."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

Burns is a value underdog despite being older and on a losing streak. Malott fades in later rounds and has shown weakness on the ground. Burns has excellent grappling and cardio for five rounds. If Burns survives the early rounds, he can take over. The odds are too wide; this fight is closer to 50/50.

fight not to go to decision (odds terrible)
"I think this fight is way closer to 50/50 than the odds suggest."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

James believes the line is too wide and that Gilbert Burns has value as a plus 425 underdog. He thinks Burns can weather the early storm and take over in later rounds due to his experience and cardio. Despite picking Malott as the pure winner, he confidently sides with Burns for the moneyline.

"I'm going to say Gilbert Burns gets the upset here. And that's because I'm a sports better."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)

The host mentions the main event but does not make a pick for either fighter. He only notes that Gilbert Burns has been bet down from a massive underdog to a big underdog.

"Gilbert Burns has been getting bet down from a massive underdog to now just a big underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mike Malott

The host believes Mike Malott will land a big shot and put Gilbert Burns away, but does not like the chalk on Malott. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as the best way to play the matchup, expecting pocket exchanges and a striking battle. He notes Burns' age and four-fight losing streak, and thinks Malott's power will be the difference.

under 2.5 rounds
"I like Malott here. I don't like the chalk on him. I think he'll end up landing a big shot to put Burns down, but I think the under two and a half would probably be the best way to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul also picks Gilbert Burns, citing the same concerns about Malott's cardio and the value on Burns. He mentions he has a bet on Burns at plus 316 and likes late round props. He believes Burns can win if the fight goes into the later rounds.

round 4 and round 5 props
"Burns is the side for me. Um, I see some other people saying that like, you know, he's going to run, you know, Burns going to get knocked out in the first round. I mean, it's possible. It's MMA. Anything …"
LOSS vs Michael Morales
KO R1 3:39 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Michael Morales 2 33 of 56 58% 35 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 5 of 18 27% 4 of 13 0 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Morales 33 of 56 58% 31 of 52 0 of 0 2 of 4 25 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-850), Burns (+575)

Round 1
In keeping with the theme of fights that promise action and intensity, the main event should be just what the doctor ordered. Former title challenger Burns (22-8, 15-8 UFC) may have his best days behind him, but “Durinho” is still as dangerous at it comes at 170 pounds. To keep himself in top contention, he will need to deflate the momentum of Morales (17-0, 5-0 UFC), who would like nothing more than to have a breakout performance at the expense of the vaunted grappler. Referee Herb Dean brings these two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, and they stoically bump fists to seal the cage and make things official. It’s time for some action. It is Morales who claims the center of the Monster Logo on the floor, while Burns circles around him. Burns circles away from the power side of the Ecuadorian, and he lets loose a low kick that slaps loudly. When Morales retaliates with a calf kick, it is a thudding sound. Burns leaps forward to strike, and Morales dances out of the way and punches him around the back of the ear. Burns launches a kick up high, and Morales parries and lobs a jab back. Burns throws a fastball of a right hand that is well off the mark, but his check left hook does catch the chin. Morales lines up a heavy right hand that back off Burns, and he gets clipped by the older man. Burns marches him down looping hooks, and Morales rolls with the punches and jabs his way forward. Burns counters and takes a few more jabs on the nose, and he absorbs a thumping kick on his calf. Morales connects with a crisp uppercut, shaking up the grappler and forcing him to shoot for a takedown. Morales is dragged to his seat for a moment, and Burns wraps his arms around him as Morales stands. Burns leans in close and tight, but Morales pushes him back and unloads with power punches. Morales knocks Burns back to the wall courtesy of a clubbing right hand, and his onslaught slowly breaks Burns down and puts him on the ground.
Dean calls for Burns to fight back, and Burns answers by ducking under and grabbing his foe's legs awkwardly for some kind of desperation takedown. Morales steps over it, allows Burns to stand and lays into him with a blistering salvo of bombarding fists that puts “Durinho” down for the count again. This time, as Dean observes that Burns’ face is bleeding and he is in a bad way, he waves the fight off.
Burns sits up, but he does not protest, knowing that the day is not his. Morales has just passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, destroying a durable top talent in the first round and not looking back. When Burns gets back to his feet, he needs a minute to recover, but he embraces the man who ran through him like no one has at 170 pounds. The 25-year-old handles the huge moment with poise, dedicating the victory to his mother and thanking her for her advice while declaring that he is ready for the next challenge, whatever that may be. Morales says he is healthy and ready to go, so with any luck, he will be back in the cage at least one more time this year. When he fights next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Gilbert Burns R1 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, citing that Morales is a better wrestler, striker, bigger, faster, stronger, and younger than Gilbert Burns. He notes that Burns is on the wrong side of 35 and coming off a loss to Sean Brady where his grappling was neutralized. Angelo questions what game plan Burns could have, as Morales is a national wrestling champion and Burns was just knocked out. He is shocked Morales is only -600 and expects the line to close at -1000.

Angelo is shocked Morales is only -600, expects line to close at -1000.
"Mic Morales is the pick. He's a better wrestler, a better striker. He's bigger. He's faster. He's stronger. He's younger."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales, citing Burns' age (38), three-fight skid, and declining durability. He notes Morales is a much better striker with volume and power, and expects him to find Burns' chin. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Morales by KO, round 2
"I like Morales. I like him quite a bit. ... I'll take Michael Morales to win this fight. And I think he's going to find the chin of Gilbert Burns. And I think he finds it within the first probably …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The host thinks Morales is a huge favorite but not justified given Burns' strength of schedule; Burns' three-fight losing streak came against top competition. He gives Burns the benefit of the doubt as a championship gatekeeper but worries if Burns can't dictate pace or get takedowns, his cardio fades and Morales can take over and knock him out. He picks Morales to win by knockout, but notes minus 800 is tough to get behind. He also leans under 3.5 rounds.

Morales by KO; under 3.5 rounds; odds comment: minus 800 tough to get behind
"I think the Ecuadorian improves his record to 18 and 0 by knocking out Gilbert Burns."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Morales

The Guru picks Michael Morales, calling him a crazy natural athlete who controls distance well and switches stances. He thinks Burns is past his prime and lacks the grit to engage, citing the Sean Brady fight where Burns didn't let his hands go. He believes the five-round fight benefits Morales' picking style and predicts a decision win (49-46). He notes the -850 odds are insane and thinks Morales is not that good, but still picks him.

Morales by decision (49-46); odds comment: -850 is insane
"I'm going to go with Michael Morales here over Gilbert Burns."
CANCEL vs Michael Morales
LOSS vs Sean Brady
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 47 of 97 48% 76 of 126 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:43
Gilbert Burns 0 130 of 217 59% 274 of 368 7 of 17 41% 0 0 10:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 6 of 14 42% 7 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Gilbert Burns 0 23 of 42 54% 58 of 79 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:15
2 Sean Brady 0 8 of 20 40% 12 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
Gilbert Burns 0 33 of 54 61% 59 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:26
3 Sean Brady 0 17 of 27 62% 29 of 39 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Gilbert Burns 0 19 of 38 50% 77 of 97 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:26
4 Sean Brady 0 7 of 16 43% 10 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Gilbert Burns 0 24 of 34 70% 44 of 54 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:48
5 Sean Brady 0 9 of 20 45% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 31 of 49 63% 36 of 57 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 47 of 97 48% 25 of 72 19 of 21 3 of 4 32 of 80 15 of 17 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 130 of 217 59% 97 of 179 12 of 16 21 of 22 118 of 202 11 of 13 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 6 of 14 42% 2 of 9 4 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 9 4 of 5 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 23 of 42 54% 17 of 36 2 of 2 4 of 4 20 of 39 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Sean Brady 8 of 20 40% 5 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 33 of 54 61% 24 of 43 6 of 8 3 of 3 29 of 50 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sean Brady 17 of 27 62% 9 of 19 7 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 19 8 of 8 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 19 of 38 50% 16 of 32 2 of 4 1 of 2 15 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0
4 Sean Brady 7 of 16 43% 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 24 of 34 70% 17 of 27 1 of 1 6 of 6 24 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Sean Brady 9 of 20 45% 4 of 15 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 31 of 49 63% 23 of 41 1 of 1 7 of 7 30 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-185), Burns (+154)

Round 1
With the welterweight title picture in flux thanks to a glut of contenders, the winner of this main event might need to get one more victory after tonight to get a crack at gold. Nevertheless, it is a big one at 170 pounds as former title challenger Burns (22-7, 15-7 UFC) looks to show that age is nothing but a number at 38 years young when he throws down with much younger grappler Brady (16-1, 6-1 UFC). This bout could take place anywhere, and it likely will go everywhere before it is all settled. Referee Herb Dean will hand the particulars for the headliner, and he brings the fighters together to respectfully touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Brady strikes first in the form of an inside low kick. Burns jumps forward with a knee that does not come up, and he backs off as Brady slaps him with another leg kick. Brady attacks the same spot with his kick once more, and he punches his way into a combination of fists that makes Burns smile at him. Burns lunges with a left hook, and Brady backs him off with a handful of punches. Brady scoops an uppercut through the guard, and he interrupts an advancing Burns with a straight left. Burns lets loose a few hooks, and Brady is wise to them and counters the Brazilian with a quicker combo. Burns times a punch to shoot in for a double, and he deposits the Philadelphia native to his seat. Brady climbs back to his feet thanks to the wall behind him, and they trade knees in the clinch as Brady walks Burns from one side of the cage to the other. Brady uppercuts on the break, and he races forward landing a series of punches that Burns largely blocks. Brady considers changing levels, but the Brazilian stops it from going anywhere. Brady gets in a short uppercut, and they trade knees on the inside in a clinch. Burns spins him about and looks for a single, allowing Brady to knee him in the face. Brady trips Burns up, and Burns topples to his knee, jumps back up and lashes out with an elbow that is inches away from his intended target. Brady reaches with longer punches than Burns is throwing, and he backs Burns up with a chain of strikes and pushes him to the chain links. Brady lifts Burns up and sets him on the mat, and Burns is quick to wall-walk to get upright. Brady hangs on from the side, tripping Burns up but not grounding him with a mat return effort. Burns spins out with seconds to spare, kneeing Brady once before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 2
Burns absorbs a clean body kick to start the round, and he responds with an overhand right that sends Brady flying into the wall. Burns leaps after him, but is grabbed and spun around in the clinch. Brady drops down for a double, and his first try lifts Burns up but does not put him on his back. Brady knees the Brazilian in the thigh a few times until Burns turns him about, and they break up. Brady gets off a trio of one-twos, and Burns walks through them and pushes out his own jab. Brady lands three punches in rapid succession, and he takes another hard right hand as Burns surges into action. After taking another powerful punch on the chin, Brady gets hold of the clinch. Burns wraps a right hand over the guard on the break, and he winds up with two more power hooks that Brady ducks and tries to counter with wrestling. Burns spins him to the fence, but he lets go so he can punch Brady in the face. Brady hits a takedown, and Burns scrambles, spins him around and dumps Brady to a knee. Burns grabs Brady from behind as Brady leans against the wall, and Brady fights out of the grip and uses a jab. Brady lands a jab and a low kick, and he lands another leg kick on the inside. Brady swarms forward with punches, clubbing Burns on the side of the head around the guard. Brady rifles off three quick punches, and he ducks a right hand to double up on a jab. Burns loads up on his power hook, and Brady is more accurate and far more active. They shadowbox until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Brady’s jabs are the first blows to lead off the round. Burns responds with a low kick and a body kick, and he dings Brady on the nose with a right hand. Brady chains several punches together in response until Burns ties him up. Burns is spun around and eats several body shots, and he gives one back before Brady goes after a single. Burns pulls his leg out and puts his guard up to defend the attack from Brady. Brady goes for a takedown, and Burns spins him around and throws him to his knees. Burns lets fly a pair of huge hooks, and Brady thanks his lucky stars he did not absorb them flush. Brady splits the guard with an uppercut, and he walks face-first into a right hand that stuns him. Brady still has the wherewithal to power forward into the clinch, and he considers a level change until Burns spins him about and attacks a single. Brady hops back to remain on his feet, and they split apart after some dirty boxing. Brady charges forward to go after a single, and Burns pushes on the back of Brady’s neck to stifle it. Burns gets a bit of space and throws punches, but it is an elbow on the inside when Brady comes towards him that does some damage. Burns lays into Brady’s body with knees, and Brady backs away. Burns slips a jab and counters with a right hand, and he turns to his side when Burns takes him down. Burns tags him with an overhand right on the standup, and Brady explodes through to scoop the Brazilian up with a double and loudly dumps Burns to the floor. Burns pushes off and defends himself until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and they share a fist bump to kick off the fourth frame. Brady paws out a few jabs, and he offers out a leg kick that bumps into Burns’ cup. Dean calls time, and Burns walks away to lean on the fence and recover. Burns takes a minute to get his wind back, and the two share another fist bump. Burns whips a kick to the body as Brady comes at him, and this time Burns has kicked Brady in the groin. As Dean calls time again, Brady falls to his knees in pain, and he takes a little bit and winks at the camera. Brady paces back and forth until another minute elapses, and Dean tells them to please keep it clean. On the next restart, Brady kicks the lead leg on the outside and then twice on the inside. Burns kicks the front leg once, and Brady fires right back. Brady releases a solid body kick, and he plants his left hand on Burns’ chin when setting down. Brady drives a few jabs through the guard, and Burns clubs him behind the ear and makes him stumble. Burns ducks a jab to respond with another heavy right hand, and Brady knows it is coming and still has to shake it off. Brady rushes at him with six punches in a row, resulting in a clinch. As Brady keeps Burns against the fence, he holds his fingers in the links, and he is warned for it. Burns gets a little space and knees Brady in the face and releases a right hand on the side of the dome. They break apart to reset, and Brady punches his way into a single that lands and puts Burns on his seat. Burns defends with a guillotine choke and uses it to work his way to his feet, only for Brady to sling him down with a mat return. Burns responds with a leglock, and Brady scrambles enough but gives up his back. Burns rolls through and keeps hold of Brady’s back in a grappling exchange, and they stand up with Burns behind him. Burns lifts Brady up and slams him down, and Brady climbs back up after landing on his face. Burns cannot get the takedown again before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 5
The two touch gloves to start off the last round, and even though Brady might be ahead in terms of raw numbers, it might still be anyone’s fight. Brady adds to his totals when it commences with a stream of punches, and Burns ducks away and has his front leg kicked. Burns wings a right hand over the top, and Brady pecks at him from a safer distance with jabs and leg kicks. Burns winds up with a right hand that gets Brady’s attention, and Brady steels himself to throw hands and rushes into a legal knee where the foot lifts and bounces into the cup. Dean calls time and checks the replay to make sure it struck Brady’s groin, and Brady takes 50 seconds before resuming. They get back to it with a brief firefight, throwing hard at one another. Brady doubles up on leg kicks, and he also sticks out a double jab and a right hand. Burns slams his low kick home, and he leaps at Brady and cracks him in the chin with his knee. A shocked Brady turns him around and goes after the single, but Burns is a stone wall. Burns pushes Brady back and wings a right hand that brushes past the hair. Brady shoots for a high single and lifts Burns up to dump him to the floor. Brady peels precious time off the clock as he maintains ground control, until Burns threatens with an omoplata that he uses to turn himself around and work his way to his feet. Brady trips Burns out and slams him to the floor like a sack of potatoes, landing in half guard for a moment before Burns pushes off his chest. Burns turns to grab hold of a leglock, and Brady smartly turns through it and lowers himself back down to not let Burns get any extension on it. Burns works to his feet only to get muscled down to the mat, and when time expires, Brady collapses to the floor in exhaustion. This brings to a close an intriguing back-and-forth battle that answered a slew of questions for the resurgent Brady, including how he can perform in a five-rounder. While the top of welterweight is a mess, the Brady victory likely puts on the shortlist of top contenders. Brady knows that a title fight may not be the immediate next challenge for him, so he calls for anyone in the top five or the unbeaten Ian Garry—the latter Brady says could work because they share the same management. If that matchup comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady (48-47 Brady)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady (50-45 Brady)

The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Angelo picks Sean Brady because he is bigger, has good takedowns and Jiu-Jitsu, and is coming off a dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He questions how Gilbert Burns can win, noting Burns' small size, 50% takedown defense, and 38% takedown accuracy. He believes Brady's new-generation black belt will be too much for Burns, though he acknowledges Burns could control on top if he gets takedowns.

"I think Shawn Brady wins this fight and I'll tell you why"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Big Brady picks Sean Brady to win by decision but admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence. He notes Burns is 38 and talking retirement, while Brady is 31 and improving. Brady thinks Brady's wrestling could win minutes and he might hurt Burns, but acknowledges Burns' phenomenal grappling and underrated striking. He expects a decision.

"I got to go Shawn Brady here I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody argues that Burns is the better striker with proven five-round experience, while Brady has poor cardio and striking volume. He notes Brady gassed against Belal Muhammad and relies solely on takedowns, which Burns' 80% takedown defense can neutralize. Despite concerns about Burns' age and coaching distractions, he sees value at +150 and picks Burns as a dog, but admits it's a rollercoaster and not a high-confidence play.

Gilbert Burns submission prop if juicy could be interesting
"I'll take Gilbert Burns uh but yeah it's it's not going to be high up"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 14, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Michael Morales, noting that Morales is 25, undefeated, and improving each fight. He expects Morales to take over as the fight goes into later rounds due to his youth and cardio advantage. Cody also mentions the reach advantage and judo background of Morales, and suggests live betting or over totals rather than laying -800.

over 2.5 rounds
"I do have Morales, but I can fully admit that minus 800, like there's no value there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Daniel believes Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time, as Burns is 38 and coming off two losses (to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena). He notes Brady's improved mindset after losing his undefeated record, and his strong performance against Kelvin Gastelum, where he showed heart and cardio. Daniel thinks Brady's physical strength and short, stocky frame will make him hard to submit, and that Brady can tire Burns out and potentially have success on the feet.

"I think that Brady is catching Burns at the perfect time this weekend... I'm going Shawn Brady here in the main event."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Brady is younger and should dictate the pace with wrestling and clinch work. Burns is 38 and on a two-fight losing streak, often gassing in later rounds. Brady can wear Burns down and finish in the third or fourth round. The only hesitation is that it's Brady's first five-round fight, but he is still favored.

Brady inside the distance (round 3 or 4)
"I like Brady in the spot... I'm going to go Brady here I just think he's at this stage of his career uh much better than Burns at 38."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Paul acknowledges Burns' cardio issues and recent decline, noting he gassed against Jack Della Maddalena and seems to have lost his grappling edge. He sees Brady's path via takedowns and control, especially in a five-round fight where Burns' cardio is a bigger liability. However, he is hesitant because he has never been a Sean Brady fan and dislikes the -175 price. He ultimately picks Brady but with low confidence, calling it a 'gun to my head' pick.

"Shawn Brady is the pick for me I mean I kind of hate it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 14, 2025 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

Paul picks Gilbert Burns as a dog, taking a small poke on Burns by submission at +1800. He acknowledges Burns is likely washed but sees value in the prop given Burns' submission history and the possibility of catching Morales. Paul admits he doesn't expect to win but likes the long odds.

Gilbert Burns by submission +1800
"I took a little small poke on that. Do I expect it to win? No."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sean Brady

The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady over Gilbert Burns. He cites the age difference (Burns is 38) and notes Brady has improved massively. He mentions Brady's wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Jake Matthews, and that he neutralized Craig Jones in grappling. He criticizes Burns' recent performance against JDM, arguing Burns didn't do enough. He believes Brady's size and strength will allow him to stall on the ground and win a slow-paced decision.

decision prediction
"I'm going with Shawn Brady... I'm going to go Brady with decision maybe... a really boring Main Event win for Shawn Brady"
KO (knee and elbows) R3 3:43 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 58 46% 31 of 63 7 of 11 63% 0 0 5:07
Gilbert Burns 1 67 of 123 54% 85 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 35 51% 20 of 37 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:15
Gilbert Burns 0 18 of 38 47% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:13
Gilbert Burns 1 28 of 37 75% 35 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 58 46% 16 of 43 8 of 11 3 of 4 23 of 52 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 67 of 123 54% 54 of 104 9 of 15 4 of 4 47 of 100 4 of 6 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 35 51% 9 of 23 7 of 9 2 of 3 14 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 48 43% 15 of 36 5 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 28 of 37 75% 26 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 16 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)

Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.

Half unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
"Jack manalan is going to win this fight he's going to piece him up do whatever he wants to do on the feet and defend the takedowns Jack manalan is the pick and I have a half a unit bet …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going Jack Dela Melina by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.

"if you're looking for underdogs you do a lot worse than Gilbert Burns I he's live at that plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.

"I bet him at minus 135 got the best of it well the best of it in terms of like you know he's gonna close What minus 180 to whatever"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.

"I haven't ever picked against Jack Della Maddalena and I don't plan on starting."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.

"Yeah me too give me Jack as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.

Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3
"I think that Melina should win this fight I think that this is a matchup where we'll see Burns stying to show the decline in his career and showcasing that he can't compete with the guys that are deserving of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.

"it's Gilbert Burns for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.

TKO late round one
"I'm going to go JDM tkoos burns up against the cage late round one"
LOSS vs Belal Muhammad
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 283 46% 132 of 283 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 81 of 147 55% 81 of 147 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 15 of 28 53% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Belal Muhammad 0 28 of 54 51% 28 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 16 of 23 69% 16 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Belal Muhammad 0 42 of 80 52% 42 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 283 46% 92 of 241 39 of 41 1 of 1 132 of 283 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 81 of 147 55% 35 of 96 13 of 16 33 of 35 81 of 147 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 19 of 39 48% 9 of 29 9 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 31 48% 7 of 22 3 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 18 of 51 35% 11 of 44 7 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 15 of 28 53% 6 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 10 15 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 25 of 59 42% 20 of 53 5 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 14 of 22 63% 7 of 14 3 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 28 of 54 51% 18 of 44 10 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 16 of 23 69% 6 of 12 4 of 4 6 of 7 16 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 42 of 80 52% 34 of 71 8 of 9 0 of 0 42 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 43 48% 9 of 30 3 of 4 9 of 9 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Five-Round Co-Feature: Gilbert Burns vs. Belal Muhammad
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-125), Muhammad (+105)

Round 1
A rarity in the promotion the last several years, the UFC is offering up an official “title eliminator” status for a fight. This comes at 170 pounds, between two excelling talents who are stringing win streaks together at the right time. While many believe Muhammad (22-3, 1 NC; 13-3, 1 NC UFC) should have gotten a title shot already, he will look to push his unbeaten streak to 10 when he collides with brick-fisted grappler Burns (22-5, 15-5 UFC). The two will have five rounds to work, even with no championship or main event status available. This short-notice tilt will receive oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and there is no nonsense or touching of gloves to start things off. Chants for “Let’s go, Burns” rain down immediately in the building, and Burns is spurred into action with a charging right hand. Muhammad absorbs a low kick and looks to find angles and get to Burns with his footwork. Muhammad ricochets a kick off his opponent’s raised guard, and he sneaks a left hand through it. Burns loads up on his power right hand, and Muhammad darts away and aims out a jab. Another solid right from the Brazilian connects square on the chin, and Muhammad backs off and eats a leg kick to follow. Burns flicks a kick up high off the raised guard, and he sneaks a right hand through. Muhammad retaliates with a shin to the ribs, and Burns intercepts a subsequent kick to tackle his man to the mat. Muhammad climbs right back up and strikes a few more kicks to the liver, and he dodges a swatting left hook. Muhammad stays composed and utilizes his jab effectively, mixing in kicks occasionally to stay busier. Burns comes up short on a winging hook, and he kicks the body. Muhammad counters with a straight left hand that staggers Burns, and Burns grits his teeth and slams his right fist into Muhammad’s jaw twice to make “Remember the Name” remember his power. Burns has a kick caught, and he scrambles out of the way before getting dumped to the floor. Burns goes up high with a kick, and Burns stumbles back right as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 2
The second frame kicks off as the two welterweights meet in the middle, and Burns strikes first with a stomping kick to the kneecap. Muhammad strafes to his right, and Burns follows him with a kick to the inside of the knee. Burns comes up short with a right hook, allowing Muhammad to sink in another liver kick. Burns chambers and fires a low kick and a massive right hand, and Muhammad’s beard absorbs it without much issue. Muhammad whips a high kick up, and he aims one to the body as Burns retaliates low to the inner calf. Burns paws away a one-two, and he gathers his thoughts to blast Muhammad in the face with a power right. Muhammad replies with a blocked head kick, and Burns hops around to shake it out. Muhammad is far less active, as Burns steps in with a right. The jabs from Muhammad are less constant, and Burns stings him with a right hand on the temple. Muhammad flashes his jab a few times, and Burns walks into one and storms forward. Muhammad times a body kick, and Burns gives him one to the calf back. Burns fires off a short right hand when Muhammad bears down on him, and he lets go with an inside low kick. Muhammad rips a kick to the side, and Burns surges into action and has a right hand slide off the shoulder. Burns lets fly a low kick, and he dodges a zipping left hand. Muhammad gives chase, and his fists collide with the guard. The slower round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The round begins with a body kick from the Brazilian, and Muhammad retaliates with a front kick that grazes the cup. There is no pause, as Burns waves it off, and the crowd grows restless from the otherwise lack of action in the first minute. Muhammad gets off a jab or two, and Burns chambers his right hand and blocks a head kick. Burns gets off a single jab of his own, and he steps back from a looping punch. Burns kicks the lead leg a few times, and he stumbles when walking forward. Muhammad fires off a high kick that smacks into a shoulder, and Burns swings and misses wit ha haymaker. The pace is very deliberate and ineffective on both sides, and Muhammad throws two punches at a time if he can. Burns backs off, and Muhammad follows him with a head kick that bounces off the shoulder and a few straight punches. Burns tags him with a big right hand, and Muhammad shakes it off and sneaks a kick under Burns’ elbow. Burns steps in with a knee to the chest, and he gets kicked in the neck for his effort. The Brazilian appears no worse for wear, and he backs away when Muhammad jabs and front kicks at him. Burns throws a high body kick that smacks into the armpit, and Muhammad chains two kicks together with his left leg. Muhammad jabs quickly when Burns races forward, and he stays active with kicks. Muhammad gets into his groove of head kicks and jabs, stifling Burns. “Durinho” swings and misses with his right, and Muhammad makes him pay with a body shot. The tepid round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 4
Between rounds, Burns appears to be struggling with his left arm, and he complains to his corner that he cannot use it. Despite this, the championship rounds are upon them, and Burns’ body language and face show he is not having a good time in the cage. Muhammad compounds this by starting off Round 4 with a body kick and a few punches, and Burns blinks hard and drills Muhammad with a right hand on the jaw. Muhammad shakes it targets the same spot on the ribs with one more kick. Burns shells up as Muhammad kicks his body, and Burns replies with one of his own. Muhammad narrowly blocks a head kick in time, with Burns surprising him with the sudden strike. Muhammad stutter-steps his way into action, with a one-two off the guard as he leans back from a home run punch soaring at him. Burns drops down to snatch up a single, and he nails Muhammad with a blistering right hand that gives Muhammad a little wobble. Burns celebrates this with a body kick, a knee to the body and a leg kick, and he backs Muhammad away with a feint. Burns considers another single, and he abandons it because he cannot use his arm to secure it. Muhammad kicks high to the hurt arm, and Burns grimaces. Seeing this, Muhammad attacks it again with a kick up high. Muhammad shrugs off a leg kick to the inside of his knee, and he fires off two kicks to the shoulder. Burns blocks the strikes that come at him, and he splits a right hand down the pipe that shakes Muhammad up again. Muhammad weathers it and goes to jab, and the round ends with the crowd booing the welterweights.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
A dejected Burns is able to come out of his corner to start the last round, and a corner stoppage would not be out of the question given Burns condition. This sport rarely allows for such a courtesy, and the last round begins. Burns blocks an early head kick and loops two right hands over the top. Burns drops down for a takedown, and he abandons it and absorbs a few kicks to the head and body. Muhammad reaches his foe with a lunging right, and he is out of range when Burns attempts his overhand right. Burns is caught with a right hand coming in, and he wobbles back but gathers his balance. Muhammad punishes the ribs with the umpteenth kick to that same target, and Burns toughs it out. They both clash together with their fists, and Muhammad is the one to land better and backs Burns away. Burns secures a leg kick to buckle Muhammad’s knee for a second, but Muhammad speedily recovers and he takes another. Burns leaps in with a few rights, and Muhammad counters and fearlessly walks Burns down. Muhammad leans back from the obligatory right hook and tags him with a few punches, and he sees the telegraphed bomb and dodges it again. Burns knocks Muhammad back with his right, only for Muhammad to step in front of him and connect with a one-two. Burns swings and misses with two missiles that are right hands, with his left completely out of the picture in this fight other than as a blocking limb. They both trade heavy fire, and Muhammad darts out of harm’s way when Burns looks to reach him. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Muhammad kicks high and then aims one to the body, and the disappointing 25-minute affair comes to a merciful conclusion. The two immediately hug it out after the bell rings, and Muhammad should finally have done enough to earn a crack at the 170-pound throne.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (50-45 Muhammad)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad (49-46 Muhammad)

The Official Result
Belal Muhammad def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 49-46, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling pressure and improved striking. He notes that Gilbert Burns is coming off a quick turnaround (fought three weeks ago) and that fighters in that situation often lose. Angelo believes Belal's wrestling pace will overwhelm Burns, and he questions Burns' submission threat off his back. He has a quarter unit on Belal at +105, noting the line has tightened from Burns being a big favorite.

quarter unit at +105
"I got a quarter of a unit on below at Plus 105."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady picks Muhammad in this five-round fight. He believes Burns is the better striker early with more power, but Muhammad's cardio, pressure, and volume will wear Burns down in the later rounds. He notes Burns has questionable cardio and chin, and Muhammad has excellent takedown defense and get-up game. He predicts Muhammad will weather the early storm and finish Burns late, possibly by fourth-round TKO.

Fourth round TKO prediction
"I'm going to take Muhammad here to win this fight I like him to weather the early storm put the pressure on put the pace on and break Burns as this fight goes on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Cody emphasizes that the five-round format heavily favors Belal Muhammad's proven cardio and durability over Gilbert Burns, who has questionable gas tank. He notes Belal's high ring IQ, ability to adjust game plans (lateral movement vs Luque, forward pressure vs Brady), and that Burns' recent wins are over older or less dangerous opponents. He expects Belal to survive early rounds and take over late, making the underdog line attractive.

Live betting after first round for better price
"pre-fight flop I will take the underdog Muhammad plus 110"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor also picks Muhammad, agreeing that Burns is uncomfortable under pressure and that Muhammad's jab will be key. He notes that Muhammad is a smart fighter who sticks to his game plan and that Burns' wrestling may not be a decisive factor. Connor expresses concern about Muhammad's short notice but trusts his conditioning.

"I'm going to pick Balal too, but that is my concern."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host picks Belal Muhammad, citing his pace, pressure, and cardio as key advantages over Gilbert Burns. He believes Muhammad's grappling-heavy style, similar to Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, will wear down Burns, who has cardio issues. He expects Muhammad to finish Burns in the fourth or fifth round, and notes that the plus 120 odds look easy.

Belal Muhammad by TKO in round 4 or 5, plus 120 odds
"I think that this is a spot that he can go out there put Gilbert Burns through the grinder and finish him probably in the 4th of fifth round of this matchup give me give me below Muhammad a short …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Paul initially leaned toward Gilbert Burns but changed his mind after realizing the fight is five rounds, which makes the line more reasonable. He notes Burns' quick turnaround and Belal's experience fighting after Ramadan without issue. He says he's 'leaning ever so slightly towards Belal' because of the five rounds, but thinks the market has it right and it's a close fight.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Burns moved from 1.5 to 1; thinks one takedown is accurate
"I'm leaning ever so slightly towards below because of the fact that it's five rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru confidently picks Burns, citing his peak physical condition from fighting frequently and his power advantage on the feet. He believes Burns will set traps and land big shots as Belal comes forward, and that Belal's takedowns won't worry Burns due to his jiu-jitsu. He also questions Belal's mindset and weight cut, noting Belal's complaints and inconsistent weight claims. He predicts a TKO via right hand against the cage.

TKO prediction
"I'm going with Gilbert Burns I like the fact that he called for five rounds knowing that Bilal Muhammad might not be in a peak shape I'm gonna go Gilbert Burns getting this one done by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Muhammad, emphasizing that Burns tends to destruct under pressure and that Muhammad's jab-centric striking is a great weapon against Burns' catch-and-counter style. He notes that Muhammad is adaptable and well-prepared, and that Burns' recent performance against Masvidal was uninspiring. Zane also mentions that the five-round fight favors Muhammad's cardio and pressure.

"I got to pick Balal Muhammad in that kind of fight."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 42 of 99 42% 72 of 135 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:41
Jorge Masvidal 0 39 of 91 42% 77 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 13 of 39 33% 15 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Jorge Masvidal 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gilbert Burns 0 7 of 16 43% 27 of 40 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:05
Jorge Masvidal 0 5 of 11 45% 32 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 44 50% 30 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:30
Jorge Masvidal 0 19 of 42 45% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 42 of 99 42% 34 of 84 3 of 7 5 of 8 37 of 90 0 of 0 5 of 9
Jorge Masvidal 39 of 91 42% 14 of 61 8 of 11 17 of 19 38 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 13 of 39 33% 7 of 29 3 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 15 of 38 39% 5 of 26 2 of 2 8 of 10 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gilbert Burns 7 of 16 43% 6 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 5 of 11 45% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Gilbert Burns 22 of 44 50% 21 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1 20 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jorge Masvidal 19 of 42 45% 8 of 29 3 of 5 8 of 8 19 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jorge Masvidal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-490), Masvidal (+390)

Round 1
The loudest pop of the evening almost certainly goes to Miami’s own Masvidal (35-16, 12-9 UFC), who walks out to this tough stylistic matchup as a heavy underdog on a losing streak. In his face for a maximum of three rounds will be “Durinho” Burns (21-5, 14-5 UFC), who can present problems on the feet and ground, depending on where his mood takes him. Action is virtually a guarantee here, and the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard looks on. With ample respect, the gloves get touched when Goddard brings them together. There is no flying knee try from Masvidal, for those expecting him to come out firing this. Burns walks forward, but Masvidal takes the center of the cage. The two are hesitant to engage with little more than jabs, other than a single low kick from “Gamebred.” Burns throws one back, and they proceed to go tit-for-tat with these slapping strikes. Chants for “305” and “Let’s Go Jorge” rain down, but it does not spur the local fighter into action. Burns whiffs on a left hook, and neither man seems willing to commit to anything of note. Burns reaches out with a few jabs that miss the mark, but a right hand splits the guard and draws a smile from his opponent. Burns darts in with a straight right, and Masvidal slides out of the way and resets. Masvidal blitzes suddenly with three punches and a leg kick, and the crowd goes wild. Masvidal sinks another kick home on the lead calf, and Burns replies with a leg kick and one to the ribs. Masvidal sticks his tongue out, and Burns attacks with a pair of looping, blocked punches. Burns ducks a big punch and nearly takes the fight down, but Masvidal moves out of the way before he gets tripped. The Brazilian lands a single kick to the body, and he switches stances a few times and catches Masvidal with a right hand. Masvidal connects with another leg kick, and Burns chops down low. Masvidal surges into action, throwing a few heavy punches, but a left hand from Burns keeps him honest. Burns loops a right hand around the guard, and Masvidal shakes it off and pins three punches on the guard. Burns cracks him with a serious right hand, and Masvidal waves him on. Burns slings a right hand, changes levels and throws Masvidal to the ground. Burns postures up, flailing punches, and Masvidal goes crazy throwing offense from his back. The round ends, and the two high five.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
The second round opens up with Burns pushing forth a jab, and he slams his fist onto Masvidal’s jaw and knocks him off his feet. Masvidal jumps back to his feet, but Burns meets him with a double. When Masvidal defends with a guillotine, Burns simply lifts him off the ground like a sack of flour and slams him down to the ground. Burns lands in the guard and Masvidal is quickly warned for punches to the back of the head. Burns maintains heavy top pressure while getting off occasional strikes, but Goddard asks him to do more. Masvidal hangs on in hopes of forcing a standup, and Burns is unable to get off much offense from above. Goddard again tells Burns to work, and Masvidal clings to him to shut it down. Burns slashes down with a single elbow, and Masvidal works his way to put his head and neck against the wire. Burns partially stands up to step over, but Masvidal wall-walks at the same time and somersaults to break the grip. This backfires, as Burns takes his back and hangs onto it while Masvidal stands. Burns slams “Gamebred” on his face in a subsequent takedown, and Masvidal leans up against the wall and even threatens the BJJ world champion with a guillotine choke. Burns completely ignores it, and Masvidal manages to fight back to his feet. Burns presses him tightly in the clinch, and Masvidal spins him around and knees him a few times. Burns turns him back around, and he gets pushed back to split them up with 30 seconds to spare. Masvidal wings an inaccurate right hand, and he plants his shin on the body. Burns runs at him with his hands flying, and they both clash together with right hands. Burns acknowledges it, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up to open the final frame, and Burns puts his foot upside the head. Masvidal shrugs it off and chops the calf with a single strike. The crowd puts its support behind the local competitor, and Burns punches him square in the face with his right hand. Masvidal blocks a lunging right hook but eats a pair of jabs. Masvidal gets off a strong low kick, and he comes up short on an uppercut. The leg kicks continue working for “Gamebred,” whose offense is otherwise generally muted. Masvidal suddenly spins with a back kick to the body, and Burns steps through it and snipes Masvidal with a left. Burns lands another, and Masvidal smiles at him. Burns lands a one-two on the chin, and Masvidal wobbles back to the fence and waves Burns on. A home run of a right hand skims off the chin, and Masvidal is still rocked but survives it. Masvidal gets some space and appears to have the cobwebs shaken out, as he puts a one-two on the Brazilian’s jaw. Burns lets his hands fly and smashes Masvidal in the face, and Masvidal again stumbles back to the fence. Burns jabs instead of falling into a Masvidal trap, so Masvidal kicks his foe’s lead leg and flashes out his own jab. Burns lands a left and a right, and “Gamebred” toughs it out and gets Burns’ respect with a few punches. The Brazilian changes levels in pursuit of a takedown, and Masvidal stands him up. Burns continues to go after it, and he trips Masvidal and throws him on his back, where he lands in side control. Burns slams Masvidal in the face with elbows, and he moves to half guard to keep Masvidal pinned to the mat. Burns considers an arm-triangle choke, but Masvidal uses two-on-one wrist control to stifle it. Masvidal is warned for grabbing inside the gloves, and Burns slides around to nearly take the back. Masvidal works to his knees, and the fight comes to a close. After the scores are read, Burns calls for a title shot. Masvidal, however, takes his gloves off and calls it a career after "20 long years."

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns (30-27 Burns)

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Jorge Masvidal via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Angelo picks Gilbert Burns but is not betting due to the steep -450 odds. He notes that Masvidal has solid takedown defense and good hands, and if the fight stays on the feet, Masvidal is the better striker. He thinks Burns will grind out a win but is wary of Masvidal's ability to defend takedowns and potentially win a decision in his hometown.

"I do think Gilbert Burns wins this fight but I am not going anywhere near these minus 450 odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Big Brady picks Gilbert Burns to win by decision, citing his wrestling advantage and Masvidal's age. He notes Burns should take the fight to the mat and control Masvidal, who has good takedown defense but can be controlled once taken down. He does not see a finish and warns against betting at -500 odds.

not laying minus 500
"give me Burns I'll say Burns by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Burns but is hesitant at -450. He notes Masvidal is very difficult to take down, as shown in five-round fights against Usman and Covington. Cody thinks Burns wins 8 out of 10 times but sees value on Masvidal due to the Florida crowd and Masvidal's power. He mentions PrizePicks under 2.5 takedowns for Burns as a potential play because Burns might not wrestle or could get a quick submission.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I'm going to be picking Burns but... the fact that we're in Florida... it's not making me feel like oh lock burns up in parlays"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Connor picks Burns because Masvidal has regressed significantly: his boxing has become sloppy, he relies on trick shots that he's no longer fast enough to land, and he lets opponents dictate the fight. Burns is aggressive, assertive, and will take full advantage of Masvidal's tendency to back up and corner himself. Connor notes that Masvidal used to be a great scrambler and wrestler, but now he seems to hate grappling and makes poor decisions. He also mentions Masvidal's ego and age have eroded his game.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Connor says the line is wide and getting wider, and it doesn't feel inaccurate.
"Gilbert Burns is going to run him over."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Jacob is extremely confident in Gilbert Burns, calling Masvidal overrated and saying he is here to collect a check. He believes Burns will take Masvidal down, slam him, and submit him. He notes that Masvidal has only defended wrestlers like Usman and Colby, but Burns is a powerful grappler who will use strength and technique to finish the fight.

submission
"Gilbert's Gonna Get Us done first take down submission easy peasy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Masvidal is on a three-fight losing streak but those were against the division's elite. He has slick boxing, deceptive power, and excellent takedown defense and get-up game. Burns is a BJJ specialist but his striking is decent, and he doesn't have the cardio or wrestling to replicate what Colby did to Masvidal. I think Masvidal's striking advantage and the Miami crowd will carry him to a knockout win.

"the line in this fight makes no sense to me at all massive at all even though he's on three in his last three fights should not be a plus 380 Underdog to Gilbert Burns"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul acknowledges the best version of Masvidal could beat Burns, but believes Masvidal at 38 has lost a step and lacks the fire. He notes Masvidal's takedown defense is good but Burns' pressure and wrestling should wear him down. Paul expects Burns to take Masvidal down, control rounds, and win a decision or late finish. He cautions that Masvidal could keep it close in Florida but ultimately picks Burns.

Burns under 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks considered
"I do gotta end up taking Gilbert Burns"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Gilbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Gilbert Burns to drop Masvidal in round one and submit him with an arm triangle. He expects Masvidal to lead with kicks, and Burns will time a right hand over the top, dropping Masvidal. Burns will then take mount, land big shots, and as Masvidal scrambles, he will give up an arm triangle and tap with 30 seconds left in the round.

first round submission, arm triangle
"I think Gilbert Burns is gonna drop masvidal in round one and sub him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Zane picks Burns because Masvidal's game has fallen off: he's slower, gasses now, and his boxing is worse. He used to be a well-rounded technician, but now he looks for highlight-reel shots and doesn't have the speed for them. Burns will out-grapple him and doesn't even need to do that the whole time; he can just pressure Masvidal, who backs up too easily and corners himself. Zane notes that Masvidal's ego and age have combined to make him a shadow of his former self.

Burns opened around -420, now -455; Masvidal opened around +350, now +370. Zane says the line is reasonable and not surprising.
"I would have picked an earlier version of Jorge against an earlier version of Gilbert. But now it just seems like there's a gulf."
WIN vs Neil Magny
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:15 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 6 83% 10 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:35
Neil Magny 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gilbert Burns 0 5 of 6 83% 10 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:35
Neil Magny 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gilbert Burns 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Neil Magny 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gilbert Burns 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Neil Magny 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Burns (-410), Magny (+330)

Round 1
Welterweights with a lot at stake invade the Octagon next, as former title challenger Burns (20-5, 13-5 UFC) looks to get back on the right track against the UFC welterweight division’s all-time wins leader Magny (27-9, 20-8 UFC). At 36 and 35 years of age, respectively, the time is now for these two to go on a run, lest they get left behind for the young guns nipping at their heels. This 170-pound “featured fight of the night” scrap will have referee Fernando Portella keeping tabs, and it begins with hands clapping together. The two hesitantly approach one another, and Magny uses his range to disallow Burns from coming at him. This strategy does not stay intact for long, as Burns closes in to whip a high body kick under the elbow. Burns chambers his big right hand without throwing it for a prolonged stretch, and he rushes forward and only lands a jab. The right hand from Burns is chained right into a level change, and he scoops Magny off the ground and slams him to the mat without batting an eye. The Brazilian shifts straight into half guard when landing, although the veteran Magny drags him back to his guard. Burns aims to jump into the mount, and opts to move to side control when Magny’s long legs give him issues. Magny leans to his side, and Burns hooks his left arm behind the neck and right arm beneath Magny’s left knee to pass. Burns passes to the other side, and he presses his shoulder down in a potential arm-triangle setup. "Durinho" slices over to full mount, as the crowd cheers in unison for his success. Burns again flirts with an arm-triangle, but bails on it to lock Magny’s right arm down in a potential keylock. Burns suddenly presses his full body weight down and steps to the side brilliantly for an arm-triangle choke, and he locks it up in an instant even with his side against the cage wall. Magny knows there is nothing more he can do, and he reaches his arm straight out and then taps out. Burns made that look easy, putting away a respected veteran while barely breaking a sweat. In the process, he also pulled off his first submission since returning to welterweight in 2019.

The Official Result
Gilbert Burns def. Neil Magny R1 4:15 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Big Brady is confident Burns will submit Magny in the first round. He notes Burns is a wizard on the mat with elite BJJ, while Magny has poor takedown defense (57%) and has been submitted five times. Burns will take the fight down easily and finish. On the feet, Magny has a reach advantage but Burns has more power. He expects a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I think Burns submits this guy and I think he does it probably early as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody picks Gilbert Burns confidently, believing Burns should win two rounds and coast in the third. He notes Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu are key, and that Magny's long limbs are a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Burns' cardio and chin concerns but thinks the Brazilian crowd and Burns' recent form (Chimaev fight) will carry him. He says Burns' path to victory is takedowns and control.

parlayed Burns with Johnny Walker; mentions Burns' takedowns and control
"I jumped in on Gilbert Burns early I think worst case scenario turns into like the Wonder Boy fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Connor agrees with Zane, stating that Burns is a nightmare matchup for Magny. He notes that Magny has improved his jab and pressure, but Burns is a souped-up version of the fighters who have troubled Magny before. Connor believes Burns can take Magny down or beat him in the clinch, and that Magny's only path is a lucky shot.

Connor mentions the odds but does not place a bet.
"It's just a miserable net matchup for Magni. Really like RDA, just that combination of skills that whenever Magni meets it just ruins his whole day."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul picks Gilbert Burns but with some hesitation. He notes Burns' cardio and durability issues, but thinks Burns' pressure, wrestling, and Jiu-Jitsu will be too much for Magny. He mentions Magny's good cardio and ring IQ but says Burns is the better fighter. He warns that Burns could gas out or get caught, but overall expects Burns to win via takedowns and top control.

mentions Burns' cardio concerns; says Magny's long limbs are a disadvantage on the ground
"I like Gilbert Burns as well I think he's the better fighter and should win but there are versions of Gilbert Burns that exist that can make this very difficult on himself"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru picks Burns but calls it his least confident pick on the card. He notes Magny's reach advantage and straight punches could trouble Burns, who struggles with range. However, Burns has offensive takedowns and Magny makes mistakes defending them. The Guru predicts Burns will find a submission (rear-naked choke or arm triangle) or TKO via ground and pound. He worries about the style matchup but trusts Burns' grappling.

submission
"I'm going Gilbert Burns but I don't know ... this is my least confident pick funnily enough"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Zane picks Burns, calling it a 'miserable matchup' for Magny. He notes that Magny historically struggles against powerful strikers, technical top-position grapplers, and freak athletes—Burns is all three. Zane highlights Burns' toughness, power, and well-rounded game, and believes Magny's only chance is to be super aggressive and hope for a miracle.

Magny opened at +245, now +350; Burns opened at -285, now -459. Zane does not place a bet.
"This is a miserable fight for Neil Magny and I would never pick him in it."
Alex Oliveira - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
TKO (elbows) R2 0:38 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 1 50 of 76 65% 51 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Alex Oliveira 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 31 of 50 62% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 19 of 39 48% 19 of 39 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:22
2 Kevin Holland 1 19 of 26 73% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Alex Oliveira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 50 of 76 65% 24 of 48 3 of 5 23 of 23 34 of 52 0 of 1 16 of 23
Alex Oliveira 21 of 44 47% 6 of 28 7 of 8 8 of 8 20 of 43 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 31 of 50 62% 7 of 24 3 of 5 21 of 21 30 of 48 0 of 1 1 of 1
Alex Oliveira 19 of 39 48% 6 of 25 6 of 7 7 of 7 18 of 38 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 26 73% 17 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 22
Alex Oliveira 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira

Round 1
Many expect that this welterweight scrap on the docket now is a sure-fire “Fight of the Night” candidate, as both Holland (21-7, 1 NC; 8-4, 1 NC UFC) and Oliveira (22-11-1, 2 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC) love to put on a show. Both men had no issue making the 171-pound limit, and they appear to be fired up and excited to get after it. Referee Chris Tognoni wrangles them long enough to get them to stand behind their respective black lines, and when the fight begins, they rush together to touch gloves. Holland leads the dance with a low kick that connects and a high kick that whizzes past the head of “Cowboy.” Holland connects with another leg kick, drawing a reaction from Oliveira and a response with one of his own. Holland scores a third low kick to the calf, and he just misses when Oliveira wings a big right hook at him. Holland continues to chip away from the outside, and Oliveira catches him on the way in with a right hand counter that knocks “Trailblazer” off his feet. Holland is able to jump back up to his feet and block a flying knee that soars towards him, and he gets back to poking with calf kicks. Holland lunges forward with a right hand, and Oliveira is right there to return fire with a swiping right hook. The punches from Oliveira make Holland lean off-balance. Holland gets cracked with a right hand as he advances, and when he falls to the ground, he laces his legs up for a leglock. Oliveira is able to step out of danger, and he lifts Holland up and slams him down to the mat. Holland is able to scramble away, and he blasts “Cowboy” in the face with a crisp right hand that puts the Brazilian on rubber legs. Not one to shy away from a brawl, Oliveira swings right back and gets Holland’s respect with a few power shots that make Holland’s rear leg lock up for a second. Both men gather themselves and get back to kickboxing range, where Holland is comfortable working with leg kicks and away from the swinging punches that whiz at him. Oliveira chops down Holland’s lead leg with a kick that is much heavier than the ones Holland are throwing, and Holland does a twirl and comes back out swinging. Holland kicks low, and he has it checked, but it seems to have affected Oliveira as well. Oliveira tries to grab the kick, but when it lands, he throws back at Holland. Holland spins from the kick, and he gets snagged against from the Brazilian. In a ridiculous scramble, Oliveira takes his foe’s back and cinches up a rear-naked choke. Instead of being concerned at all, “Trailblazer” motions to thumbs-up signs from each hand to the camera, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 2
The hands get touched to start off the second round, and Oliveira appears to come out limping. Despite this, Oliveira charges ahead with a low kick, and he gets clipped with a small right hand counter. Holland smells blood, and he races out drop hammers on his wounded opponent. The knees of “Cowboy” give way beneath him and he crumbles to the mat, and Holland can see the finish line and delivers a brutal salvo of punches to end the fight. As Oliveira flails and protects himself from harm, Holland switches to elbows and smashes them in his adversary’s face one after the other. Unleashing the thunder, Holland gives it everything he has to record the finish, and Tognoni jumps in to pull Holland off of a wrecked “Cowboy.” There is no ill will between the two after the furious five-plus minutes of ferocity, and they hug it out to celebrate a hard-fought battle.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Alex Oliveira R2 0:38 via TKO (Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his improved takedown defense and dedication to wrestling. He thinks Oliveira's leg kicks are dangerous but Holland's hands will be the difference. He expects Oliveira to stay on his feet, allowing Holland to settle into a rhythm and let his hands fly. He calls it potential fight of the night.

"i think kevin holland gets it done in what might be fight of the night"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win, likely by submission. He notes that Oliveira is on a three-fight skid and appears to be slowing down at 34, while Holland is younger and motivated. Brady believes Holland's BJJ black belt will be a threat if Oliveira attempts takedowns, as Oliveira has been submitted six times. He also thinks Holland's striking and reach advantage will be key, though he questions Holland's fight IQ. Brady is comfortable picking Holland but not laying -300 on him.

Holland by submission
"i do like kevin hall to win this fight if um the weight cut i think it's gonna go good"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody likes Holland's striking advantage and reach, and believes his improved wrestling from training with Johny Hendricks will help him stay on the feet. He notes Oliveira is not a chain wrestler and has poor cardio, while Holland has good jiu-jitsu off his back. Cody has Holland in a parlay with Covington and also likes the submission prop at +800.

Parlayed with Colby Covington; Holland by submission at +800 (DraftKings)
"i think you know striking at range kevin holland's got the better boxing here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win by submission. He notes that Holland has a massive size and reach advantage at 170, and that Oliveira's best days are behind him. He expects Oliveira to shoot a sloppy takedown and get caught in a choke. He also mentions that Holland has been working on his grappling and has submission wins. He parlayed Holland with Paddy Pimblett for two units.

parlayed with Paddy Pimblett for 2 units
"i think alex oliveira shoots that sloppy shot and gets submitted eventually i do think that kevin holland lights him up with big body kicks maybe even drops him with a straight right and and capitalizes on an open neck …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland's striking is pristine at range, and the drop to 170 should help his takedown defense against smaller opponents. Oliveira has cardio issues and a tendency to give up. Holland will likely stay safe, avoid Oliveira's leg kicks and wrestling, and find a knockout in the later rounds. Oliveira's wild style could cause problems early, but Holland's conditioning and skill should prevail.

Holland wins inside the distance (round 3), sprinkle on round 3 prop
"my prediction here is actually the uh it's gonna be kevin holland inside the distance but i think it's gonna be a little bit later on in this fight probably second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul dismisses the trap-line narrative, arguing Holland's wrestling has improved significantly since the Brunson and Vettori fights. He highlights Holland's training with Johny Hendricks and his performance against Kyle Daukaus, where he defended takedowns well. Paul notes Oliveira is not a high-volume wrestler and has a three-fight losing streak, while Holland is big and durable. He also mentions a standing guillotine as a potential finish.

Holland by submission (standing guillotine) mentioned as a possibility
"low-key low-key well i got holland that's high key but low-key what's the holland by submission prop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru calls Kevin Holland a lock over Alex Oliveira, citing Oliveira's decreased durability since a grenade attack and his tendency to slow down in fights. He believes Holland's youth, durability, and scrappiness will overwhelm Oliveira, predicting a second-round TKO. He notes that Oliveira has been chinned easily recently and that Holland's weight cut to welterweight should be manageable.

method: TKO, round: 2
"i'm going to call a second round ko for kevin holland over alex oliveira"
LOSS vs Niko Price
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Niko Price 0 65 of 112 58% 83 of 131 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:14
Alex Oliveira 0 64 of 116 55% 108 of 167 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Niko Price 0 7 of 17 41% 15 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 16 of 22 72% 34 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:48
2 Niko Price 0 19 of 35 54% 29 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:43
Alex Oliveira 0 14 of 26 53% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Niko Price 0 39 of 60 65% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Alex Oliveira 0 34 of 68 50% 53 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Niko Price 65 of 112 58% 31 of 72 17 of 23 17 of 17 56 of 99 2 of 2 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 64 of 116 55% 37 of 83 7 of 11 20 of 22 45 of 93 2 of 2 17 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Niko Price 7 of 17 41% 3 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 22 72% 9 of 14 0 of 1 7 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 7 of 8
2 Niko Price 19 of 35 54% 9 of 25 4 of 4 6 of 6 12 of 24 0 of 0 7 of 11
Alex Oliveira 14 of 26 53% 6 of 16 1 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 22 0 of 0 3 of 4
3 Niko Price 39 of 60 65% 19 of 34 12 of 18 8 of 8 39 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 34 of 68 50% 22 of 53 6 of 8 6 of 7 26 of 58 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Angelo picks Alex Oliveira, assuming veteran savvy will prevail over Niko Price's wildness. He notes that Oliveira is more technical, has more experience, and has more ways to win, but he often gets sucked into brawls. Angelo expects Oliveira to use leg kicks to slow Price down and fight a smart fight. He likes Oliveira in DraftKings at $7,800 and recommends using slates for monkey knife fight to bet on Oliveira's more. He acknowledges that Price could win with a crazy knockout.

more on Alex Oliveira in monkey knife fight slates
"i am gonna pick oliveira here i assume that is veteran savvy he'll fight a smart fight not succumb to his instincts not get sucked into god knows what sloppy war"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Niko Price

Big Brady picks Niko Price to win inside the distance, citing Oliveira's poor recent form (2-5 in last 7, looking like he doesn't want to be there). Price is the hungrier fighter, comes forward with volume, and doesn't slow down. Oliveira has been finished multiple times (5 submissions, 1 KO) and has slowed down in recent fights. Brady expects Price to finish Oliveira early, possibly by submission given Oliveira's submission losses, and thinks this could be Oliveira's last fight if he loses.

Price inside the distance (KO or submission)
"give me a price give me price to win inside the distance i think he does finish oliveira"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Cody picks Niko Price, noting that Oliveira has declined significantly and is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Price is competitive in his losses and has shown he can push the pace and wear opponents down. He expects Price to stuff takedowns, keep the fight standing, and take over in the later rounds. He also mentions that Price has a baby on the way, which might motivate him.

"minus 165 i got to go with niko price"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

Daniel Levi picks Niko Price but expresses concern about laying -190 on him, as he prefers Price as an underdog. He notes Price's improved volume and resilience, while Oliveira is a seasoned vet with clinch knees and power but has shown questionable durability and a tendency to tap quickly. Levi expects a three-round war and thinks Price will edge it out due to digging deeper. He acknowledges a finish is possible but leans decision.

fight of the night candidate
"nico's a guy i'd rather lay a dog price on unless it's guaranteed that this is a first round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niko Price

I think Price has improved his volume and grappling, while Oliveira has declined. Price is the more durable and active fighter. Oliveira is a wild card but has looked poor lately. I like Price by KO at +150 and the under 2.5 rounds. Price should overwhelm Oliveira.

Price by KO +150, under 2.5 rounds -145
"I like price here i like price i'm gonna take him by ko as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niko Price

Paul also picks Price, surprised the line is only -165. He notes that Oliveira looks over the hill, with poor weight cuts and lethargic performances. Price has been competitive against top competition and should have a cardio advantage. He expects Price to win by decision or late stoppage.

"i would have to go with nico price in this spot even though it's -165"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Niko Price

The MMA Guru picks Niko Price, noting Alex Oliveira's tendency to fade in the third round and his recent chin issues. Price has cardio and toughness advantages, and he has KO power. He predicts Price will win by TKO in the third round after a competitive first two rounds.

Price by TKO in round 3
"i'm going with nico price tko in the third round"
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:50 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 1 16 of 32 50% 23 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 7 of 12 58% 9 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 1 16 of 32 50% 23 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 7 of 12 58% 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 5 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 1 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 7 of 12 58% 1 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 5 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 16 of 32 50% 10 of 24 1 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 21 0 of 0 8 of 11
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Big Brady picks Oliveira to win a close decision as an underdog. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency is a concern, but if the best version shows up, he can mix in takedowns and top control. He thinks the fight should be closer to a pick'em and likes the value on Oliveira. He also mentions Brown's chin is questionable.

Oliveira by decision
"i'm going to take the underdog here in oliveira to win a very very very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody is high on Brown, noting his consistent improvement and physical advantages. He points out Oliveira's lack of motivation and poor recent performances. He expects Brown to use his length and striking to control the fight, and thinks Oliveira will fade if he doesn't get an early finish. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130), live betting on Brown after round 1
"randy brown is considerably bigger um this is a real welterweight that oliveira's and like you know oliveira is coming off of that loss"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel picks Randy Brown, believing his length and improving game will be too much for Alex Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's inconsistency and that Brown will pull away in the later rounds, possibly getting a finish. He expects the first round to be close.

"i'm gonna go with randy brown to get this done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

I lean Brown here. He has better cardio and technique, and Oliveira is inconsistent. Brown should use his reach and jab to outpoint Oliveira. I like Brown by decision at +225, and the over 1.5 at -225 is also solid. However, Oliveira could surprise with a wild performance, so confidence is not high.

Brown by decision +225
"i do lean brown here though i think he has the better cardio"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing his improvement, length, and reach advantage. He notes Oliveira's distractions (nine kids, eight baby mamas) and declining interest. He expects Brown to use his jab and distance to outbox Oliveira, and thinks Oliveira's best days are behind him. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds and suggests live betting on Brown after round one.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130), live betting on Brown after round 1
"i'm expecting brown to to roll here minus 145 just almost seems too good to be true"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown by decision. He notes that Oliveira is injury-prone and often breaks toes or ribs during fights, while Brown is more durable. He predicts Oliveira wins the first round but Brown comes back in the second and third, winning 29-28.

"i'm gonna go randy brown though"
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:40 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.

third round knockout, inside the distance
"give me a shove cat rachmanov i want to say he can win a decision but he's never done that before i'm gonna pick him to win inside the distance here uh give me a third round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.

Oliveira should be at least -185; Rakhmonov is not Russian but Kazakh; Oliveira missed weight at 173 lbs but has won after missing weight before
"i'm going with alex cowboy oliveira to defeat shavatt rockman"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.

under 2.5 rounds
"i do like the rachmaninov line at least plus 155 it's not too bad"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.

first round TKO
"i think chefcat rachmandov is going to go out there get the upset and get himself a first round tko finish"
WIN vs Peter Sobotta
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Oliveira 1 45 of 93 48% 48 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Peter Sobotta 0 29 of 67 43% 30 of 68 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Oliveira 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Peter Sobotta 0 7 of 21 33% 7 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Oliveira 1 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Peter Sobotta 0 10 of 17 58% 11 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
3 Alex Oliveira 0 19 of 36 52% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Peter Sobotta 0 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Oliveira 45 of 93 48% 19 of 51 16 of 29 10 of 13 37 of 85 7 of 7 1 of 1
Peter Sobotta 29 of 67 43% 13 of 46 7 of 11 9 of 10 29 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Oliveira 9 of 24 37% 1 of 11 7 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Peter Sobotta 7 of 21 33% 2 of 13 2 of 4 3 of 4 7 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Oliveira 17 of 33 51% 9 of 17 5 of 11 3 of 5 11 of 27 6 of 6 0 of 0
Peter Sobotta 10 of 17 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Oliveira 19 of 36 52% 9 of 23 4 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1
Peter Sobotta 12 of 29 41% 7 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Peter Sobotta

Big Brady picks Sobotta as an underdog because he believes Sobotta has a huge ground advantage with his BJJ. He thinks the fight will hit the ground and Sobotta can win there, either by submission or decision. He is concerned about Oliveira's power but thinks Sobotta's striking has improved and the gap is not large.

Sobotta by decision
"I'm going to be taking my second underdog of the card in this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Peter Sobotta

Daniel picks Sobotta for the upset, citing his jiu-jitsu and improved boxing. He believes Sobotta can take Oliveira's back and submit him if he avoids early damage. He acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and danger but thinks Sobotta's path to victory via submission is viable. He is worried about Oliveira bullying Sobotta early.

"i'm actually going to take him for the upset uh but i know it could go very wrong early... one back take one full mount uh and the fight might be over shortly after so i'm gonna go with peter …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Peter Sobotta

Sobotta is the more technical fighter with superior grappling and submission skills. Oliveira is wild and has a poor gas tank, often fading in the third round. Sobotta can take Oliveira down and submit him late, or outpoint him on the feet. The line should be closer, and Sobotta offers value at plus money.

Sobotta by submission in round 3
"i think he's very very skilled and oliver again just being the wild man that he is he's a very beatable fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Oliveira, noting his activity and momentum from a win over Max Griffin. He points out that Sobotta hasn't fought since March 2018 and lost to Leon Edwards. He also mentions Oliveira's reach advantage and jiu-jitsu, and believes Oliveira will get the job done.

"I'm going to be going with Alex Oliviera here, but I understand that Sabot is a dangerous opponent."
WIN vs Max Griffin
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Oliveira 0 40 of 77 51% 61 of 98 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:31
Max Griffin 0 23 of 50 46% 62 of 96 2 of 3 66% 0 1 5:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Oliveira 0 9 of 24 37% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Max Griffin 0 7 of 16 43% 23 of 35 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:38
2 Alex Oliveira 0 23 of 41 56% 24 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:34
Max Griffin 0 12 of 28 42% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
3 Alex Oliveira 0 8 of 12 66% 23 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Max Griffin 0 4 of 6 66% 20 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Oliveira 40 of 77 51% 21 of 56 11 of 13 8 of 8 35 of 67 3 of 8 2 of 2
Max Griffin 23 of 50 46% 17 of 40 4 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Oliveira 9 of 24 37% 6 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 21 0 of 3 0 of 0
Max Griffin 7 of 16 43% 6 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Oliveira 23 of 41 56% 9 of 27 6 of 6 8 of 8 23 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Max Griffin 12 of 28 42% 9 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alex Oliveira 8 of 12 66% 6 of 8 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 4 2 of 2
Max Griffin 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
170: Alex Oliveira vs. Max Griffin

Round 1
Opening up the main card is a battle between two welterweights in desperate need of a win as “Cowboy” Oliveira (19-8-1, 2 NC; 9-6, 1 NC UFC) takes on Griffin (15-7, 3-5 UFC) . Drawing the assignment is referee Mark Smith. There is no glove touch, as Griffin comes out firing with a heavy one-two that just misses the mark. Griffin is racing after him, and gets clipped on the way in but does not pull back. “Pain” swings heavily, but does not connect flush, as Oliveira dances away and spins about almost to celebrate that he did not get hit. Oliveira crashes forward and dings him with a right hand before clinching up, and Griffin fights himself free. The two try to paw out their left hands for range, and Oliveira throws a right hand so hard he nearly falls over. The two both wing their punches, and Oliveira sticks out a jab. Griffin takes a one-two, and comes right back with a similar combination but does not score it. The two swing and trade at the same time, and Griffin tags him and cause Oliveira to go flailing with an uppercut. Griffin hits a takedown, and his corner screams at him to back off and do damage. In full guard, Griffin stays heavy while throwing some short punches, and Smith chides Griffin on punching to the back of the head. Griffin passes to half guard, and Oliveira tries to pull himself up the fence so Smith shouts at him to let it go. Griffin stays tight and looks to tie up Oliveira’s arm with his leg, but the Brazilian gets his arm free before interlocking his toes in the fence. Smith again warns him to let go of the cage, and has to slap Oliveira’s toes out. All the while, Griffin slowly works with some elbows and looks at an arm-triangle choke, but with Oliveira against the cage wall, he cannot get leverage to set anything up. As Oliveira springs to his feet, Griffin takes his back, but “Cowboy” rips himself free and the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
Like the first, Griffin practically sprints towards his opponent to land a long jab. Oliveira is ready for it, and catches him before landing two heavy leg kicks that make Griffin’s knee a little wobbly. Oliveira fires out a few more jabs, and Griffin is busted up from these shots with a cut above his right eye towards the bridge of his nose. Oliveira rushes in with a strike, and Griffin times a takedown but the Brazilian halts it. Instead, he turns the position around tries to pull for a single leg takedown, and we can see the blood pouring out of Griffin’s forehead. Smith calls in the doctor to check on the cut, which we can see came from a fierce uppercut. The doctor clears him to continue, and we are back to it. The two men start off with some jabs, and Oliveira pursues the low calf kick that is really irritating Griffin quickly. The two come together and swing, and Oliveira is timing the uppercut but cannot score it. The Brazilian lands an outside and then inside leg kick to the damaged leg, and takes a powerful right hand along the way. The two both come together with huge right hands, and both are clear of the mark with their home run shots. Griffin clinches up, but again Oliveira reverses him. In an attempt to break free, Oliveira pirouettes with a spinning elbow and Griffin is barely able to block it. Griffin shoots in low for a takedown, and Oliveira defends it with a guillotine before pushing him against the fence. After some tense but slow clinch work, “Cowboy” pursues a single but cannot get it, so Griffin breaks free and swings a heavy right hand that is short of the mark. Oliveira stings him with two more right hands, and when Griffin goes after a labored spinning back fist, Oliveira shoots low for one last takedown to seal the round. He does not land it, and the round is over with Griffin bleeding heavily.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 3
The last round kicks off with Griffin cleared to continue, as we see a separate cut under Griffin’s other eye. Oliveira scores a few long front kicks where he stabs with his toes, and then goes up top with a head kick that is blocked. Griffin tries to close the distance, and Oliveira spins him around to get a takedown. “Pain” stays strong, and spins him around while taking a few elbows to the side and back of his head. Griffin complains, and Smith warns the Brazilian as a cut has now opened on the top of Griffin’s head. This fight could quickly turn into a performance from the Edwin Dewees playbook, and Oliveira separates only to hit a takedown. “Cowboy” lands on top and pursues a choke, before taking full mount, and Griffin is in a bad way as the blood pours into his eye. Oliveira pulls for a straight armlock while on top, and bails on it to end in half guard. Griffin wears a crimson mask and is grimacing as he is not likely able to see, and Oliveira capitalizes with a few short but effective punches on top. The Brazilian once more takes mount, and is starting to unload punches while Griffin tries to blink his eyes clear. Griffin scrambles and manages to reverse the position, and Oliveira falls to his back when he cannot come close to sinking in a guillotine choke. Griffin steps over to half guard and drops some elbows on his man, and Oliveira is holding on for dear life. With 80 seconds to go, Griffin is giving Oliveira his best “You don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” impression as he bleeds down on his opponent without getting many strikes off. Griffin grinds and starts to pour it on with some very short elbows and punches to try to steal the round. The judges have their hands full in this round, as Griffin ends the fight on top. What a bloody mess of a battle, but it sure was fun.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)

The Official Result
Alex Oliveira def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel picks Alex Oliveira to win by TKO in the first round, believing this is a step down in competition for Oliveira. He thinks Griffin is basic, slow, flat-footed, and gasses out, while Oliveira is a monster in the clinch and stand-up. He acknowledges Oliveira's susceptibility to submissions but doesn't think Griffin is capable of exploiting that.

Daniel says the line might be too low because in their primes Oliveira would have put Griffin down quickly. He picks Oliveira by TKO finish in the first round.
"I'm gonna go Alex cowboy by TKO finish in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Oliveira has better striking and power; he can hurt Griffin early and finish. However, if he blows his wad like against Mike Perry, Griffin's wrestling and cardio could take over. Griffin has shown ability to wrestle and grind. The host was considering betting Griffin but changed his mind after watching tape. He picks Oliveira by second-round TKO but is not confident enough to bet.

"I think that Oliveira is gonna have a little bit more success on the feet and landing the bigger shots here... I'll go with Oliveira by second-round TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Max Griffin

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Alex Oliveira but changes his pick to Max Griffin. He expects Oliveira to have early success, possibly dropping Griffin, but Griffin will come back and grind out a decision win by controlling the last two rounds on the ground. He notes both fighters are scrappers and this is a 50/50 fight.

"I'm going with max Griffin Oliveira is gonna have success early he's maybe gonna drop max Griffin and put him in some trouble max Griffin's gonna come back and grind out a decision win"
LOSS vs Nicolas Dalby
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 31 of 84 36% 64 of 122 1 of 4 25% 0 1 5:29
Alex Oliveira 0 18 of 47 38% 31 of 65 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 7 of 29 24% 7 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:34
Alex Oliveira 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 29 37% 34 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:59
Alex Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 9 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:56
Alex Oliveira 0 0 of 2 0% 10 of 16 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 31 of 84 36% 19 of 64 5 of 12 7 of 8 9 of 45 11 of 18 11 of 21
Alex Oliveira 18 of 47 38% 14 of 40 0 of 2 4 of 5 13 of 36 1 of 3 4 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 7 of 29 24% 0 of 18 3 of 7 4 of 4 4 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 12 of 32 37% 9 of 27 0 of 1 3 of 4 8 of 24 0 of 0 4 of 8
2 Nicolas Dalby 11 of 29 37% 7 of 21 2 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 14 8 of 15 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 5 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Nicolas Dalby 13 of 26 50% 12 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 20
Alex Oliveira 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alex Oliveira vs. Nicolas Dalby

Round 1
Going back to welterweight, the always-exciting Oliveira (19-7-1, 2 NC; 9-5, 1 NC UFC) tries to spoil the homecoming of Denmark's Dalby (17-3-1, 1 NC; 1-2-1 UFC). In his walk to the cage, Dalby is accompanied by the Denmark National Anthem, as performed by his fiancée Dzifa Adjo Akpalu. The referee taking charge of the cage is Rebin Saber. Oliveira opens up with a low leg kick, and then charges forward with a slew of punches that all fall short. The crowd is electric for their home country fighter, who scores a few slapping leg kicks while trying to find his range on the elusive Brazilian. Dalby leaps through the air with a knee, and as he falls shy of the target, Oliveira tries to counter on the way down, but he too misses. Dalby scores an inside leg kick, and Oliveira replies with one that Dalby checks. "Cowboy" whiffs with a spinning wheel kick, and Dalby responds with a spinning back kick that is nowhere near the mark. Dalby chases Oliveira down with a few punches, punctuated by a head kick that does not land flush. The Dane again blitzes forward, partially connecting with a right hand while avoiding the hard counter from the Brazilian. As Oliveira throws a big right over the top, Dalby shoots in for a takedown, but Oliveira stuffs it. Dalby presses Oliveira against the fence and tries to trip his opponent down, but Oliveira keeps his balance and stays upright, although his back is against the cage. Unsuccessful on another trip, it is actually Oliveira who gets the fight down, scooping the legs of Dalby while attempting to take the back. Returning to full guard, Oliveira drops down a loud right hand and little more, while Dalby tries to set up a triangle. Oliveira shucks off the attempt and lands in half guard, before Dalby reverses position and gets Oliveira down. The crowd is so loud cheering for Dalby that we cannot hear the horn sounding, but the round is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 2
Oliveira charges forward to begin the round, but does not successfully land on his first combination. Dalby plants a front kick to the chest of his adversary, and unfortunately Oliveira takes an eye poke and makes the referee stop the action. The fight resumes after a very short break, and the two men trade leg kicks before slamming hooks on each other's chins. In the flurry, Dalby floats up a head kick that blasts Oliveira on the side of the head, causing the Brazilian to clinch up. This does not prove to his advantage, as Dalby circles around and scoops the legs from underneath his opponent, with Dalby landing on top to the delight of the crowd. Quickly passing to half guard, Dalby drops down a few short elbows and punches to frustrating effect, so Oliveira tries to turn out of the position. Dalby lands a few punches that might be close to the back of his opponent's head, and then hammers down a couple elbows that are quite effective. Dalby pounds Oliveira with several right hands until the Brazilian has had enough, and Oliveira powers out of the position to stand up. Dalby leans heavy against the fence, and he has successfully bloodied the nose of "Cowboy." On the break, Oliveira tries to spin with a back elbow, but Dalby dodges it and comes on strong, landing punch after punch while Oliveira turtles up. With his opponent possibly playing possum, Dalby stays patient and continues to land on Oliveira. The Brazilian falls to the canvas, and in a scramble Oliveira briefly takes position, but he falls off the back and Dalby ends up on top. Oliveira lands an illegal upkick, causing Saber to pause the action and admonish Oliveira, and stands them back up. With seconds remaining, Oliveira cracks Dalby with a left hand, but Dalby walks it off and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 3
Oliveira's corner implores their fighter to "believe in yourself," causing Oliveira to smile as the final round begins. Dalby just misses with a head kick, causing the crowd to loudly gasp. Dalby shoots in for a double leg takedown and cannot land it, so Oliveira fishes for a guillotine choke. Unable to secure it, the Brazilian bails on it and spins Dalby against the fence. Oliveira tries to kick out the leg of his opponent, and lifts Dalby up and throws him to the cage floor. In side control, Oliveira throws a few knees to the body and grinds his elbow on the Dane's face. Dalby retains half guard, and is looking to sweep the Brazilian, but Oliveira stays strong and hammers down with several punches before the referee inexplicably stands them up. Not wanting to stay on the feet, Oliveira leaps into a double leg takedown, and scores it to drag Dalby back down. "Lokomotivo" rolls out and ends up on top, before taking full mount, and the crowd is deafening in support of their fighter. Dalby postures up to rain down punches and elbows, and then looks to set up an arm-triangle choke before giving it up to keep his strikes going. Dalby sits back up and smashes a few huge elbows to punctuate the fight, and the crowd is elated at Dalby's performance as the bout concludes. The two men embrace and raise their arms in the air after an exciting battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Alex Oliveira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
LOSS vs Mike Perry
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mike Perry 0 48 of 137 35% 50 of 139 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
Alex Oliveira 0 65 of 110 59% 75 of 120 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mike Perry 0 17 of 48 35% 19 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
Alex Oliveira 0 20 of 29 68% 21 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 Mike Perry 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Alex Oliveira 0 21 of 36 58% 30 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:42
3 Mike Perry 0 15 of 55 27% 15 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Oliveira 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mike Perry 48 of 137 35% 30 of 110 7 of 16 11 of 11 42 of 125 6 of 11 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 65 of 110 59% 48 of 90 6 of 8 11 of 12 32 of 72 18 of 19 15 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mike Perry 17 of 48 35% 11 of 37 4 of 9 2 of 2 14 of 42 3 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 20 of 29 68% 13 of 22 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 22 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mike Perry 16 of 34 47% 10 of 27 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 21 of 36 58% 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 14 of 18
3 Mike Perry 15 of 55 27% 9 of 46 1 of 4 5 of 5 15 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alex Oliveira 24 of 45 53% 18 of 37 2 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 34 9 of 10 1 of 1