UFC 185: Pettis vs. dos Anjos · Mar 14, 2015 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 185: Pettis vs. dos Anjos Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 1"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Joanna Jędrzejczyk
6.28 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.25 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.27 TD Avg
62.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Carla Esparza
2.19 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
2.87 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
3.28 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Joanna Jędrzejczyk - Fight History
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
KO (spinning backfist) R2 2:28 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 1 69 of 102 67% 94 of 130 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:51
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 43 of 85 50% 44 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 47 of 66 71% 72 of 94 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:39
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 22 of 39 56% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 1 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 69 of 102 67% 52 of 80 12 of 15 5 of 7 29 of 59 5 of 5 35 of 38
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 43 of 85 50% 20 of 56 9 of 9 14 of 20 39 of 81 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 47 of 66 71% 41 of 58 2 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 24 4 of 4 35 of 38
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 22 of 39 56% 14 of 28 2 of 2 6 of 9 20 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 22 of 36 61% 11 of 22 10 of 12 1 of 2 21 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 21 of 46 45% 6 of 28 7 of 7 8 of 11 19 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo picks Zhang Weili, citing her activity and improvements since the first fight. He acknowledges Joanna arguably won the first fight and has better wins, but believes the two-year layoff will hurt Joanna's timing. He notes Zhang has added wrestling and has been fighting top competition, while Joanna has been inactive.

"i think i'm still going to stick with way lee here though and i really do think the activeness makes a difference two years away is a very long time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the close nature of their first fight and Joanna's two-year layoff. He notes that Zhang has power and has been more active, while Joanna relies on volume and movement. He expects a razor-close decision and is not confident in the judges.

"I'm going with Zhang Weili here I like she's been more active I like the power I think she's going to inflict the damage here but it's going to be a razor razor razor close fight."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody picks Zhang, believing the three-round fight favors her power and aggression. He notes Zhang's wrestling improvements with Henry Cejudo and thinks she can steal rounds with takedowns. He acknowledges Joanna's cardio but thinks Zhang's power will be decisive.

"three-round fight i think it's zhang wei lee... i think she's a rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi is on the fence for this fight. He acknowledges that the first fight was very close and that Joanna won the early rounds on the scorecards. He notes that Zhang has power and could land a big shot, but also that Joanna has better volume and defense. He mentions the layoff for Joanna could be a positive or negative, and that the fight being in Singapore might favor Zhang. He ultimately picks Zhang but says he has no idea and is not betting the fight.

fight goes the distance (mentioned by co-host as a good bet)
"you're going Joanna so I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take y lead but I mean like I ain't putting money on that I have no idea dude"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Weili has more power and her shots are more impactful. Joanna is coming off a long layoff and this is a three-round fight, which favors Weili's power. Joanna's output may not be enough to overcome the damage Weili lands. Weili also has a wrestling edge. I think Weili wins a close decision or late finish.

"I think the three-rounder more so favors while he's dying here because she can go out there and continue to throw her power shots."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joanna Jędrzejczyk

Paul takes Joanna as an underdog, citing her speed and volume. He thinks Joanna won two of the first three rounds in the first fight and that a three-round fight favors her. He acknowledges Zhang's power but believes Joanna's pace and experience can edge a decision.

Joanna by decision
"i'm taking a flyer i think on joannie and jay check... underdog number one joining energy check"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by 29-28 decision. He argues that the three-round fight favors Zhang's power over Joanna's volume, and that Zhang has improved her grappling significantly, which she may mix in. He criticizes Joanna's two-year layoff and lack of dedication compared to Zhang's focused training. He expects Joanna to win the third round but too little too late. He notes that Zhang's power shots were more effective in their first fight.

"i'm going to side with zhang whaley winning this one i think she'll mix in the grappling on you anna early"
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 165 of 408 40% 170 of 413 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:13
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 186 of 360 51% 196 of 370 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 30 of 76 39% 30 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 20 of 65 30% 23 of 68 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:32
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 32 of 62 51% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
3 Zhang Weili 0 38 of 73 52% 39 of 74 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:26
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 38 of 76 50% 40 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
4 Zhang Weili 0 40 of 91 43% 41 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 40 of 79 50% 41 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
5 Zhang Weili 0 37 of 103 35% 37 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 79 58% 47 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 165 of 408 40% 96 of 305 11 of 22 58 of 81 158 of 393 7 of 15 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 186 of 360 51% 96 of 230 32 of 47 58 of 83 171 of 342 15 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 30 of 76 39% 14 of 47 2 of 5 14 of 24 30 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 30 of 64 46% 13 of 32 2 of 7 15 of 25 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 20 of 65 30% 12 of 47 2 of 3 6 of 15 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 32 of 62 51% 15 of 43 10 of 11 7 of 8 26 of 55 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 38 of 73 52% 19 of 53 1 of 2 18 of 18 37 of 70 1 of 3 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 38 of 76 50% 17 of 48 8 of 12 13 of 16 37 of 74 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 40 of 91 43% 27 of 75 3 of 3 10 of 13 36 of 82 4 of 9 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 40 of 79 50% 28 of 60 3 of 5 9 of 14 34 of 72 6 of 7 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 37 of 103 35% 24 of 83 3 of 9 10 of 11 37 of 103 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 79 58% 23 of 47 9 of 12 14 of 20 44 of 77 2 of 2 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel picks Zhang Weili to retain her title, citing her power and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Joanna has been dropped multiple times in her career and has a suspect chin. He believes Zhang can win a decision by landing harder shots and using body locks and trips, which have worked against Joanna in the past.

Daniel says from a betting perspective it's a dog or pass because he's not 100% sure Zhang will replicate her performance against Andrade. He notes the line is -162 and that more money is on Joanna, which he sees as a slightly good thing.
"I'm gonna pick Weili Zhang for the win. I think it's a close decision, I think that power is gonna enter out this fight maybe she gets a knockdown somewhere along the way and I think she retains her title."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Weili has heavy hands and good ground game; she is stronger than Joanna. She can mix in takedowns to make Joanna hesitant. If Weili hurts Joanna early and often, she can finish, likely in the third or fourth round. However, if it goes 25 minutes, Joanna's volume could win rounds. Weili's power and strength are key advantages.

"I like Weili she's just so good everywhere... I'm gonna go with Weili by fourth round TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing concerns about Joanna's weight cut and the damage she has taken in recent fights (e.g., against Michelle Waterson, Rose Namajunas). He believes Zhang has more power and confidence, and will finish Joanna by TKO in the first or second round.

first round or second round TKO
"I feel as though we lay Jang is gonna come in here with a mission on her mind to back up your Annie and Jay check use a lot of lateral movement a lot of head movement on the inside …"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Oct 12, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 180 of 300 60% 226 of 347 3 of 5 60% 1 0 5:34
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 58 of 160 36% 71 of 174 1 of 9 11% 1 0 4:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 31 of 39 79% 52 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:13
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 11 of 26 42% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:14
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 34 of 64 53% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 15 of 38 39% 19 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 36 of 56 64% 36 of 56 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:37
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 7 of 29 24% 8 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:57
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 78 58% 50 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:18
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 12 of 38 31% 14 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 33 of 63 52% 45 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 180 of 300 60% 48 of 136 54 of 74 78 of 90 132 of 246 48 of 54 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 58 of 160 36% 25 of 84 12 of 40 21 of 36 44 of 141 14 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 31 of 39 79% 8 of 13 17 of 19 6 of 7 11 of 16 20 of 23 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 11 of 26 42% 7 of 18 3 of 5 1 of 3 3 of 16 8 of 10 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 34 of 64 53% 4 of 25 9 of 14 21 of 25 26 of 55 8 of 9 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 15 of 38 39% 7 of 22 3 of 7 5 of 9 12 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 36 of 56 64% 7 of 20 9 of 13 20 of 23 35 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 7 of 29 24% 2 of 13 2 of 8 3 of 8 7 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 78 58% 15 of 41 10 of 14 21 of 23 33 of 64 13 of 14 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 12 of 38 31% 5 of 16 4 of 17 3 of 5 10 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 33 of 63 52% 14 of 37 9 of 14 10 of 12 27 of 56 6 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 29 44% 4 of 15 0 of 3 9 of 11 12 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Dec 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 89 of 191 46% 118 of 223 5 of 14 35% 0 0 8:15
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 78 of 250 31% 124 of 300 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 11 of 21 52% 20 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:21
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 15 of 40 37% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 21 of 43 48% 32 of 55 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:43
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 10 of 54 18% 12 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:22
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 16 of 56 28% 19 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 18 of 33 54% 22 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:17
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 17 of 41 41% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 20 of 56 35% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:32
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 20 of 59 33% 48 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 89 of 191 46% 50 of 135 16 of 25 23 of 31 65 of 159 16 of 24 8 of 8
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 78 of 250 31% 12 of 133 44 of 78 22 of 39 59 of 224 19 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 11 of 21 52% 6 of 12 1 of 3 4 of 6 7 of 14 3 of 6 1 of 1
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 15 of 40 37% 0 of 14 11 of 16 4 of 10 6 of 28 9 of 12 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 21 of 43 48% 15 of 37 1 of 1 5 of 5 12 of 34 2 of 2 7 of 7
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 10 of 54 18% 0 of 28 3 of 13 7 of 13 10 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 19 of 38 50% 9 of 24 7 of 10 3 of 4 16 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 16 of 56 28% 3 of 32 9 of 17 4 of 7 16 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 18 of 33 54% 9 of 20 2 of 3 7 of 10 15 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 17 of 41 41% 2 of 21 11 of 15 4 of 5 13 of 35 4 of 6 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 20 of 56 35% 11 of 42 5 of 8 4 of 6 15 of 48 5 of 8 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 20 of 59 33% 7 of 38 10 of 17 3 of 4 14 of 52 6 of 7 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Jul 28, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 62 of 166 37% 81 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Tecia Pennington 0 33 of 78 42% 54 of 100 0 of 10 0% 0 0 4:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 12 of 27 44% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:02
Tecia Pennington 0 1 of 3 33% 13 of 16 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:09
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 23 of 66 34% 25 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Tecia Pennington 0 20 of 42 47% 24 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 27 of 73 36% 33 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 33 36% 17 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 62 of 166 37% 21 of 113 27 of 38 14 of 15 40 of 134 22 of 32 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 33 of 78 42% 11 of 44 2 of 2 20 of 32 29 of 73 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 12 of 27 44% 4 of 16 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 13 11 of 14 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 23 of 66 34% 6 of 46 8 of 11 9 of 9 21 of 60 2 of 6 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 20 of 42 47% 8 of 23 2 of 2 10 of 17 17 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 27 of 73 36% 11 of 51 11 of 16 5 of 6 18 of 61 9 of 12 0 of 0
Tecia Pennington 12 of 33 36% 3 of 19 0 of 0 9 of 14 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Apr 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 105 of 301 34% 108 of 304 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:56
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 145 of 356 40% 160 of 372 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 21 of 64 32% 21 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 24 of 67 35% 24 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 25 of 60 41% 27 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rose Namajunas 0 19 of 60 31% 19 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 30 of 68 44% 30 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Rose Namajunas 0 22 of 62 35% 22 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 38 of 77 49% 38 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 70 32% 26 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 28 of 84 33% 41 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 105 of 301 34% 85 of 270 15 of 24 5 of 7 105 of 301 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 145 of 356 40% 64 of 257 27 of 37 54 of 62 135 of 342 10 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 21 of 64 32% 15 of 55 5 of 7 1 of 2 21 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 24 of 67 35% 10 of 51 2 of 4 12 of 12 24 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 20 of 45 44% 19 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 1 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 25 of 60 41% 7 of 36 10 of 13 8 of 11 16 of 48 9 of 12 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 19 of 60 31% 15 of 54 3 of 5 1 of 1 19 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 30 of 68 44% 13 of 45 6 of 7 11 of 16 30 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 22 of 62 35% 16 of 53 5 of 8 1 of 1 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 38 of 77 49% 19 of 55 5 of 8 14 of 14 38 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 23 of 70 32% 20 of 67 1 of 1 2 of 2 23 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 28 of 84 33% 15 of 70 4 of 5 9 of 9 27 of 82 1 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
TKO (punches) R1 3:03 · UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre · Nov 04, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 42 11% 5 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 1 15 of 34 44% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 42 11% 5 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 1 15 of 34 44% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 5 of 42 11% 2 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 3 5 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 15 of 34 44% 14 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 23 0 of 1 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 5 of 42 11% 2 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 3 5 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 15 of 34 44% 14 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 2 8 of 23 0 of 1 7 of 10
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 211: Miocic vs. dos Santos 2 · May 13, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 225 of 352 63% 230 of 357 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jéssica Andrade 0 83 of 218 38% 94 of 230 2 of 10 20% 0 0 3:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 46 of 60 76% 46 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Jéssica Andrade 0 16 of 30 53% 20 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:26
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 48 of 77 62% 50 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:20
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 48 of 73 65% 48 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 14 of 44 31% 16 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:30
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 40 of 65 61% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 10 of 23 43% 13 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:04
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 0 43 of 77 55% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Jéssica Andrade 0 26 of 68 38% 28 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanna Jędrzejczyk 225 of 352 63% 101 of 211 49 of 63 75 of 78 193 of 307 32 of 45 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 83 of 218 38% 51 of 163 15 of 35 17 of 20 58 of 178 24 of 39 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 46 of 60 76% 13 of 27 12 of 12 21 of 21 33 of 45 13 of 15 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 16 of 30 53% 7 of 20 4 of 5 5 of 5 12 of 24 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 48 of 77 62% 21 of 44 8 of 11 19 of 22 43 of 70 5 of 7 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 17 of 53 32% 12 of 35 2 of 13 3 of 5 13 of 45 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 48 of 73 65% 18 of 42 12 of 13 18 of 18 45 of 66 3 of 7 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 14 of 44 31% 6 of 31 4 of 8 4 of 5 11 of 39 3 of 5 0 of 0
4 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 40 of 65 61% 19 of 39 8 of 13 13 of 13 35 of 60 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 10 of 23 43% 6 of 18 2 of 3 2 of 2 5 of 17 4 of 5 1 of 1
5 Joanna Jędrzejczyk 43 of 77 55% 30 of 59 9 of 14 4 of 4 37 of 66 6 of 11 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 26 of 68 38% 20 of 59 3 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 53 9 of 15 0 of 0
Carla Esparza - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tecia Pennington 0 39 of 123 31% 116 of 215 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:40
Carla Esparza 0 80 of 150 53% 94 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tecia Pennington 0 6 of 26 23% 77 of 105 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:52
Carla Esparza 0 13 of 38 34% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tecia Pennington 0 12 of 43 27% 17 of 51 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:29
Carla Esparza 0 31 of 55 56% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tecia Pennington 0 21 of 54 38% 22 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Carla Esparza 0 36 of 57 63% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tecia Pennington 39 of 123 31% 30 of 112 4 of 6 5 of 5 33 of 110 0 of 3 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 80 of 150 53% 28 of 92 11 of 12 41 of 46 75 of 142 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tecia Pennington 6 of 26 23% 4 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 13 of 38 34% 8 of 32 3 of 3 2 of 3 10 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tecia Pennington 12 of 43 27% 6 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 31 of 55 56% 14 of 37 5 of 5 12 of 13 31 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tecia Pennington 21 of 54 38% 20 of 53 0 of 0 1 of 1 15 of 44 0 of 0 6 of 10
Carla Esparza 36 of 57 63% 6 of 23 3 of 4 27 of 30 34 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds is the safest bet on the card
"Tisha is the pick she's going to be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here I'm I'm going to take Pennington to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.

"I will take Carlos sparza"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.

"I'm going to go with Carla Esparza too. I know it's her retirement fight, but she's really, really tough to beat."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.

"I'mma go with uh Tia Tores here to come out here and win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.

"I believe Pennington is very much improved since that matchup and given that both these women are now moms most recently Carla sparza I do believe that will see Pennington a little bit better in terms of being in the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"it's a total dog or pass situation for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.

"I'm going to go with Tisha Pennington here over Carla espara you guys God I might regret that but I'll go with that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.

"I guess Esparza because she's probably going to win around."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:05 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 6 of 32 18% 19 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 1 0:55
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 78 47% 42 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 5 of 27 18% 18 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 1 0:53
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 65 50% 38 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Carla Esparza 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 6 of 32 18% 6 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 37 of 78 47% 20 of 58 8 of 9 9 of 11 24 of 63 0 of 0 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 5 of 27 18% 5 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 1
Carla Esparza 33 of 65 50% 19 of 48 6 of 7 8 of 10 20 of 50 0 of 0 13 of 15
2 Zhang Weili 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo believes Weili is the more dangerous fighter with power and improved wrestling. He expects Esparza to shoot takedowns but thinks Weili's athleticism and preparation will allow her to defend and possibly out-grapple Esparza. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is not great and that Weili could even get takedowns of her own. He picks Weili to win and expects Esparza to lose the belt quickly.

"I expect Whaley to win this fight she's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, expecting a brutal beatdown. He believes Esparza's wrestling won't be enough to control Zhang for 25 minutes, and that on the feet it's not close. He compares it to Esparza's loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where she couldn't get takedowns and got finished. He notes Zhang knocked out Joanna with a spinning back fist and looks like a killer.

Zhang Weili inside the distance; finish by TKO/corner stoppage/cut
"I think Zhang Whaley beats the crap out of Esparza I think Zhang Willy finishes as far as at some point in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody picks Zhang Weili to win inside the distance, specifically by TKO. He compares the fight to Esparza's first title loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, where Esparza was pressured against the cage and ate shots until the ref stopped it. He notes that Zhang hits very hard and that Esparza needs a perfect fight to get takedowns without taking damage. Cody believes Zhang's power and pressure will lead to a stoppage, and he prefers the inside distance prop over the moneyline.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance for safety
"I can probably will skip the money line at minus 335... inside the distance for Zhang Wei Lee is like a Peckham price right now so that's where my my money's gonna end up in the co-main event."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili to become a two-time champion, but he is hesitant due to the price (-350) and the danger of Carla Esparza's wrestling and top control. He acknowledges that Carla has a history of mauling opponents like Yan Xiaonan and making Rose Namajunas gun-shy. Levi believes Weili is more well-rounded, powerful, and athletic, and he predicts a finish. However, he warns that if Weili gets laid on, it could be a repeat of Carla's past upsets. He advises against betting Carla again after her big dog win over Rose, calling it a 'one-time well.'

Predicts a finish (KO/TKO or submission); odds mentioned: Weili -350, Esparza +290 at DraftKings
"I'm gonna go with Wiley Zhang to finish Carlos Esparza I mean that's what I kind of see happening"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The host believes Zhang will get an early knockout, likely in the first two rounds. He notes Esparza's grappling is a threat, especially if the fight goes long, but Zhang's power and improved grappling should be enough to finish early. He recommends Zhang inside the distance rather than the moneyline, expecting a KO or submission. He also notes the under 4.5 rounds at +100 as a good bet.

Zhang inside the distance, under 4.5 rounds (+100)
"I do think that Zhang inside the distance is probably the best bet in this matchup taking her to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Paul also picks Zhang Weili inside the distance, but specifically likes the TKO prop. He notes that Esparza's takedown defense is suspect and that when she is forced to exchange, she tends to swell up. Paul highlights Zhang's pace, accuracy, and power, and believes that Esparza will not be able to get Zhang down. He warns against taking the KO prop specifically, recommending the inside distance prop instead to avoid being burned like he was with Poliana Viana.

Inside the distance at -110; also considered TKO prop but recommends inside distance
"I actually agree with you 100... I got that TKO prop... take the inside the distance it's like there's minus one tens out there the best I see is plus 120 on the chaos let's decal."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili, citing her improved grappling under Henry Cejudo and her ability to stuff takedowns and land knees and elbows. He notes Esparza's poor striking and her loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who stuffed 16 takedowns. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Weili dominating on the feet and stuffing all takedowns.

first round TKO
"you kind of have to go Zhang Wei Lee here"
Decision (split) (47–48, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 37 of 136 27% 38 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 133 22% 30 of 133 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 19 21% 4 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 4 of 22 18% 4 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 11 of 36 30% 11 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
4 Carla Esparza 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Rose Namajunas 0 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:20
5 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 39 33% 13 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 31 16% 5 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 37 of 136 27% 30 of 122 6 of 12 1 of 2 36 of 135 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 133 22% 15 of 108 4 of 11 11 of 14 27 of 128 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 4 of 19 21% 4 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 19 21% 2 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 14 21% 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 4 of 22 18% 1 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 11 of 36 30% 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 1 11 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 9 of 32 28% 7 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Carla Esparza 6 of 28 21% 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 8 of 29 27% 3 of 22 1 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Carla Esparza 13 of 39 33% 7 of 30 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 5 of 31 16% 2 of 24 0 of 3 3 of 4 5 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas despite acknowledging Carla's wrestling. He argues that Weili Zhang took Rose down five times but still lost, and that Carla's top pressure isn't as good as it should be. He believes Rose only has to worry about the wrestling, whereas Weili was a threat on the feet too.

"rose is the pick i'm gonna be rooting for carla i want carla to win but if five takedowns and 162 strikes landed didn't get wei lee the nod i just don't know what carla's gonna be able to do"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Esparza will likely take Rose down multiple times, as Rose's takedown defense is only 51% and she hasn't faced many wrestlers. However, he believes Rose's get-up game and activity off her back will prevent Esparza from holding her down for long. On the feet, Rose has a clear advantage. He notes that if this were a three-round fight, he might pick Esparza, but over five rounds, Esparza's wrestling-heavy style is harder to sustain. He is not in love with the price tag.

decision
"I like rose nominee units to win this fight I don't think she like wins every round I do think esparza is going to take off a round or two but I do think as far as picking a winner …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Rose Namajunas. He notes that Esparza's wrestling was effective a lifetime ago but Rose has improved her grappling significantly. Cody cites Tatiana Suarez's take that Esparza isn't physically strong and may not outmuscle Rose. He points out that Esparza has never fought into a fourth round, while Rose has championship-round experience. Cody believes Rose can nullify takedowns, get back up, and eventually win by late stoppage or decision.

"i think it's a favorable fight for rose nominess for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Daniel Levi picks Rose Namajunas but is not confident, calling it a 'dog or pass' fight. He acknowledges Carla Esparza will land takedowns and has a path to victory, but believes Rose has more ways to win, especially on the feet. He says he would take Rose if the odds were closer to pick'em, but at -220 he is not betting. He respects the value on Esparza at plus 180 and thinks the true odds are around Rose -145 to -150.

Daniel mentions he is not betting this fight. He notes the under 4.5 rounds at +155 is interesting but does not bet it.
"I would take Rose if pick'em fight, I'd take Rose. Maybe minus 150 I'd consider, but I just don't want to lay chalk."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The host picks Rose Namajunas, believing her striking and range management have improved significantly since their first fight. He expects Rose to focus on defending takedowns and getting back to her feet. He notes Carla's takedowns can be sloppy and she doesn't do much damage on top. He thinks Rose's ability to create space and her deceptive power will be key. He is not betting Rose at -205, but likes under 4.5 rounds at +135.

under 4.5 rounds +135
"so give me rose and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul picks Rose Namajunas, calling it a straightforward striker vs grappler matchup. He believes Rose's camp has focused on sprawl training and that if the fight stays on the feet, Esparza cannot compete. Paul suggests live betting Esparza if she gets an early takedown, but overall expects Rose to retain her title. He notes the -210 line might be a bit wide but still favors Rose.

live betting Esparza if she gets early takedown
"i think rose rates the ship here gets back on track it's a very very straightforward fight for her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The MMA Guru picks Rose Namajunas, citing her improved stand-up and grappling. He notes that Esparza's recent wins have been close and that she doesn't dominate on the ground anymore. He believes Namajunas will stuff takedowns, chew up Esparza's legs, and eventually submit her in the fourth round via rear-naked choke. He mentions the odds are close because Esparza has a previous win, but thinks Namajunas is the better fighter.

Rose Namajunas by fourth round finish, rear-naked choke
"i'm going to have to go with rose and amy eunice and i'll go over rose nami eunis by uh fourth round finish real naked choke"
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
TKO (punches) R2 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 5 of 11 45% 31 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 27 of 33 81% 170 of 194 3 of 3 100% 0 0 7:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 2 of 5 40% 24 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 13 of 15 86% 104 of 117 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:52
2 Carla Esparza 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 14 of 18 77% 66 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 4
Yan Xiaonan 27 of 33 81% 27 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 26 of 31
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Yan Xiaonan 13 of 15 86% 13 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 13 of 15
2 Carla Esparza 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Yan Xiaonan 14 of 18 77% 14 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 16
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Big Brady sides with Yan Xiaonan due to her striking volume (6.42 significant strikes per minute vs 2.29) and damage output, but is hesitant because Esparza's takedowns and control time could sway judges. He notes Yan's 75% takedown defense is key, but the fight is close and could go either way depending on judging criteria. He would bet Yan if she becomes an underdog.

Yan by close decision; would bet Yan if underdog
"i'm going to side with yon to get it done by a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody Saftic leans toward Carla Esparza, trusting the line movement from +150 to +100. He believes Esparza's wrestling and fight IQ will allow her to secure takedowns and control the fight, even if she fades in the third round. He notes that Esparza's style leads to close decisions and that she finds ways to win even when not at her best. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a pass.

no bet, fight goes the distance (parlay)
"i trust the the line movement that we've seen from the plus 150 to the plus 100 i think this is you know closer to a peckham type of fight and esparza will be my pick no bet"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan, praising her discipline, distance management, and takedown defense improvements at Team Alpha Male. He argues that Carla Esparza is one-dimensional with wrestling, while Yan has shown she can stuff takedowns and get back up, as seen against Claudia Gadelha. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Yan, possibly a late TKO, and believes she is the future champion.

unanimous decision, possibly late TKO
"i think that yan zhaonan's distance game is gonna really frustrate her i think she's gonna stick to the boxing in the hands and i think carla esparza is gonna be taking some shots from really far out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Matt picks Carla Esparza despite being a fan of Yan Xiaonan, because he believes Esparza's elite wrestling and top control will be the deciding factor. He compares the matchup to Yan's fight against Claudia Gadelha, where Yan struggled with takedowns early but came back as Claudia faded. He argues Esparza has better cardio and wrestling than Gadelha, so she can grind out a decision. He notes Yan's takedown defense remains questionable and expects Esparza to secure takedowns in every round. He likes Esparza by decision at plus money.

Carla Esparza by decision (+168), Carla Esparza by submission (+800 sprinkle)
"i have to go against my heart and i gotta pick carla esparza to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Paul Shaughnessy picks Yan Xiaonan, believing she will stuff most takedowns and land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Esparza swells up from jabs and that Yan has shown improvement. However, he is not confident enough to bet, preferring to pass or parlay the fight going the distance. He acknowledges that either woman could win a close decision.

pass, fight goes the distance (parlay)
"i think that with yon it's like she probably just stuffs more of these takedowns than not keeps the fight standing lands the more impactful shots"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Yan Xiaonan

The MMA Guru predicts Yan Xiaonan will win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He believes Yan's takedown defense and range management with sidekicks will be key. Even when Esparza gets takedowns, Yan will stay busy off her back with elbows and punches, out-landing Esparza in total strikes, similar to Carlos Condit vs Matt Brown.

"i'm going to go with yan zhao nan i think she's going to be too good at take down defense"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 60 55% 118 of 152 5 of 9 55% 1 0 8:54
Marina Rodriguez 0 40 of 76 52% 91 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 12 66% 49 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:21
Marina Rodriguez 0 20 of 33 60% 30 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:50
2 Carla Esparza 0 7 of 19 36% 32 of 47 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:28
Marina Rodriguez 0 14 of 29 48% 43 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Carla Esparza 0 18 of 29 62% 37 of 49 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 6 of 14 42% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 33 of 60 55% 29 of 56 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 16 1 of 1 28 of 43
Marina Rodriguez 40 of 76 52% 34 of 70 0 of 0 6 of 6 15 of 38 0 of 1 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 8 of 12 66% 8 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 12
Marina Rodriguez 20 of 33 60% 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 25
2 Carla Esparza 7 of 19 36% 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 11
Marina Rodriguez 14 of 29 48% 9 of 24 0 of 0 5 of 5 8 of 18 0 of 1 6 of 10
3 Carla Esparza 18 of 29 62% 15 of 26 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 20
Marina Rodriguez 6 of 14 42% 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Rodriguez because of her huge striking advantage and high output. He notes Esparza's path is takedowns, but thinks Rodriguez can be active off her back and get up. He placed a bet on Rodriguez at -160 and predicts a third-round knockout, though he acknowledges Esparza could win if she controls on the ground.

Rodriguez by third round knockout; placed bet at -160
"I like rodriguez um as at the line here minus 180. um I'll tell you guys right now I did place a bet on this fight I got our minus 160 though"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident in Marina Rodriguez, citing her striking advantage, length, and viciousness. He believes she will stuff takedowns and light up Esparza on the feet, similar to Joanna's win over Esparza. He notes Rodriguez's improvements in getting up from takedowns and her mental toughness. He sees a dominant decision win.

"i think she's ready for this big test i think she's going to come out here and pass it so i'm going marina rodriguez to get the biggest win of her career over the former former champion esparza"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Esparza is the superior wrestler and grappler, and Rodriguez has shown clear flaws in takedown defense. Esparza's chain wrestling and ability to secure takedowns should be the difference. Rodriguez has a striking advantage but Esparza can nullify it with relentless grappling. Esparza likely wins by decision.

Esparza by decision (+145)
"i gotta side with the dog here you know this fight should be lined a little bit closer"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

The MMA Guru picks Carla Esparza, arguing that Marina Rodriguez has failed in her step-ups in competition, while Esparza is a better version of Tecia Torres, stronger and more smothering. He believes Esparza's wrestling and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez.

"I'm going to be going with Ka Espaza getting a job done even though Marina Rodriguez looked pretty good against Tisha Torres."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 45 of 103 43% 48 of 106 1 of 10 10% 0 0 0:46
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 44 of 98 44% 44 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 5 of 18 27% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carla Esparza 0 15 of 31 48% 16 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carla Esparza 0 25 of 54 46% 25 of 54 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:11
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 45 of 103 43% 34 of 88 6 of 8 5 of 7 39 of 94 5 of 8 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 44 of 98 44% 15 of 60 13 of 16 16 of 22 39 of 92 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 5 of 18 27% 3 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 9 of 28 32% 4 of 18 2 of 3 3 of 7 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 15 of 31 48% 13 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 2 14 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 26 50% 3 of 15 4 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Carla Esparza 25 of 54 46% 18 of 46 4 of 5 3 of 3 21 of 47 4 of 7 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 22 of 44 50% 8 of 27 7 of 9 7 of 8 20 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Big Brady picks Carla Esparza, expecting her to secure takedowns and control Waterson, swaying judges in close rounds. He notes Esparza's improving striking but gives Waterson the edge on the feet. He predicts a very close decision win for Esparza.

"I like Asparza here just for the fact that I think she can go out here and get takedowns in a close fight."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Daniel Levi leans towards Michelle Waterson, believing the fight should be a pick'em and thus taking the underdog. He notes Waterson's underrated wrestling, sidekicks, and head-and-arm throw, and thinks she can frustrate Esparza on the outside. Levi acknowledges Esparza's improved boxing but sees Waterson as having more tricks and being undervalued.

"I'm gonna go with the underdog here man i'ma go at karate hottie I think that she's got more tricks up her sleeve"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Matt leans Esparza, believing she can get takedowns at will and grind out a decision. He notes her improving striking and submission defense, but worries about Waterson's submissions off her back. He considers Esparza a potential lock but is not pulling the trigger at -164, preferring to wait for better spots.

Carla Esparza by decision
"I'm still leaning Carlos far as a here I'm gonna say caller does eventually grind her out"
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 44 of 80 55% 115 of 157 4 of 11 36% 0 1 7:12
Alexa Grasso 0 45 of 103 43% 103 of 169 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 18 of 36 50% 36 of 54 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:31
Alexa Grasso 0 17 of 41 41% 33 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 18 72% 56 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:25
Alexa Grasso 0 6 of 20 30% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
3 Carla Esparza 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 1 2:16
Alexa Grasso 0 22 of 42 52% 35 of 57 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 44 of 80 55% 27 of 60 11 of 14 6 of 6 28 of 59 6 of 9 10 of 12
Alexa Grasso 45 of 103 43% 41 of 97 4 of 6 0 of 0 34 of 88 3 of 6 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 18 of 36 50% 8 of 25 7 of 8 3 of 3 13 of 29 4 of 6 1 of 1
Alexa Grasso 17 of 41 41% 15 of 37 2 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 1
2 Carla Esparza 13 of 18 72% 10 of 15 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 1 of 1 9 of 11
Alexa Grasso 6 of 20 30% 5 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Carla Esparza 13 of 26 50% 9 of 20 2 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 22 of 42 52% 21 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 35 0 of 0 7 of 7
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Jacaré vs. Hermansson · Apr 27, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carla Esparza 0 25 of 51 49% 97 of 128 4 of 10 40% 0 1 5:25
Virna Jandiroba 0 17 of 37 45% 64 of 89 3 of 9 33% 0 2 3:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 12 66% 26 of 32 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:37
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 10 70% 22 of 26 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:43
2 Carla Esparza 0 9 of 20 45% 28 of 40 1 of 6 16% 0 1 0:43
Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 15 46% 24 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 1 1:42
3 Carla Esparza 0 8 of 19 42% 43 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:05
Virna Jandiroba 0 3 of 12 25% 18 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carla Esparza 25 of 51 49% 18 of 43 6 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 8 of 12 5 of 9
Virna Jandiroba 17 of 37 45% 13 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 30 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carla Esparza 8 of 12 66% 4 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 1 of 1
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 10 70% 3 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 6 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Carla Esparza 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 3 of 5 2 of 5
Virna Jandiroba 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 12 0 of 2 1 of 1
3 Carla Esparza 8 of 19 42% 7 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 3
Virna Jandiroba 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0