Career Averages - Michael Johnson
Career Averages - Tony Ferguson
Michael Johnson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 1 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 1 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dober | 22 of 55 | 40% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 76 | 35% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Dober | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 14 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 18 of 51 | 35% | 9 of 31 | 0 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Drew Dober | 11 of 26 | 42% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Drew Dober as a slight underdog over Michael Johnson, but with very low confidence. He notes Johnson is inconsistent and his recent wins are against weak competition, while Dober's chin may be fading after brutal KO losses. However, Brady thinks Dober hits harder and could catch Johnson, predicting a second-round KO. He acknowledges the fight is a toss-up and trusts neither fighter.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his better speed, boxing, and reach advantage. He notes Dober's recent knockout losses and regression, while Johnson is on a three-fight win streak. He expects Johnson to win by knockout or decision.
Connor picks Johnson, citing Dober's clear decline in recent fights, especially the Kyle Propolek fight where Dober looked slow and unfocused. He notes that Johnson has maintained a consistent level and still has sharp counterpunching and good first-level takedown defense. Connor believes Dober's durability has faded and his pressure style leaves him open to counters, which Johnson can exploit.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Drew Dober as an underdog, expecting an early scare followed by a late knockout. He notes that Michael Johnson's speed fades with age, and Dober's durability and power can turn the tide. Vreeland compares it to Dober's fight against Bobby Green, where he took punishment early and finished later.
James picks Michael Johnson because he is faster and hits just as hard as Dober, and he expects Johnson to land first. He notes Dober's declining durability and hittability, making him vulnerable to a knockout. James predicts a KO finish, likely by Johnson, and suggests betting on the fight ending via KO.
Johnson is the better technical striker with cleaner counters. Dober is explosive but vulnerable to counters. Johnson's speed and power should allow him to land a big shot and put Dober away. Johnson by knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Johnson due to his power, volume, and footwork. He mentions Dober's durability issues and Johnson's ability to fight to his opponent's level. He expects Johnson to either knock Dober out or win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober, believing he will walk through Johnson's shots and land a KO. He compares it to the Bobby Green fight and predicts a second-round TKO. He mentions Dober's whiteboard and obsession with finishing Johnson.
Zane also picks Johnson, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He emphasizes that Dober's recent performances show a fighter who is no longer present in the moment, similar to Tony Ferguson's decline. Zane notes that Johnson's speed and counterpunching are still dangerous, and Dober's tendency to lead with his face makes him vulnerable. He sees Johnson as the more reliable fighter at this stage.
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.
Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.
Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.
Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.
James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.
The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.
Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.
Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 80 of 195 | 41% | 81 of 196 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 52 of 182 | 28% | 52 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 30 of 77 | 38% | 31 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 17 of 66 | 25% | 17 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 26 of 62 | 41% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 23 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 80 of 195 | 41% | 27 of 100 | 42 of 81 | 11 of 14 | 77 of 189 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 52 of 182 | 28% | 19 of 125 | 27 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 50 of 180 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 24 of 56 | 42% | 4 of 22 | 15 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 12 of 46 | 26% | 2 of 23 | 7 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 77 | 38% | 14 of 47 | 10 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 27 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 17 of 66 | 25% | 7 of 51 | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 26 of 62 | 41% | 9 of 31 | 17 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 23 of 70 | 32% | 10 of 51 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing his striking, length, takedown defense, and toughness. He respects Michael Johnson's experience but believes father time has caught up. He notes Zellhuber's recent loss was competitive and he showed heart.
Big Brady confidently picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing advantages in age, height, reach, striking, and grappling. He notes Michael Johnson's age (39) and durability issues, having been finished 12 times. He predicts Zellhuber wins by second-round knockout.
Connor picks Zellhuber for his pace and youth, noting that Johnson has become choosy and less willing to throw combinations. He thinks Zellhuber will have opportunities to engage when Johnson decides to engage, and that Zellhuber's combination punching will be effective. However, he warns that the fight could be ugly if Johnson is too slow-paced.
The host is going with the Mexican fighter, expecting him to pick apart Johnson from distance and eventually line up a big knockout within two rounds. This shows confidence in Zellhuber's striking ability.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson, predicting a decision win. He notes that Johnson is older and has struggled against lower-level opponents like Jamie Mullarkey, while Zellhuber is younger and has a reach and height advantage. The Guru also mentions that Zellhuber had a wake-up call in his last fight against Rivic, recovering well, and believes he will out-strike Johnson over three rounds. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard.
Zane picks Zellhuber based on a predictive algorithm that notes Johnson hasn't beaten a good fighter in a long time. He points out that Johnson's recent wins are over shot fighters or inconsistent ones, while Zellhuber is younger and more dangerous. He also mentions the possibility of a stinker but still favors Zellhuber.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 56 | 28% | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 37 | 27% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 19 of 50 | 38% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 56 | 28% | 8 of 39 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 15 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 37 | 27% | 5 of 25 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.
Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.
Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.
Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.
Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 61 of 112 | 54% | 80 of 138 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 6:02 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 52 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 40 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Darrius Flowers | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 21 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 61 of 112 | 54% | 16 of 47 | 36 of 52 | 9 of 13 | 58 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Darrius Flowers | 33 of 64 | 51% | 10 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 29 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 32 of 60 | 53% | 7 of 23 | 17 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Darrius Flowers | 20 of 36 | 55% | 1 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 19 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 8 of 20 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Darrius Flowers | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Darrius Flowers | 6 of 8 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo acknowledges Michael Johnson's vast experience and skills, but notes he is older, slower, and coming off a bad knockout loss. Darrius Flowers is an in-your-face fighter with power and slams, but is unproven. Angelo picks Flowers due to Johnson's age and the knockout, but is hesitant to bet on an unproven fighter. He compares Johnson to Muslim Salikhov, suggesting a similar fate.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Michael Johnson to win by second-round submission. He notes that Johnson is inconsistent and has been on his no-bet list since 2018, but this is his easiest fight in 13 years. Flowers is a one-round brawler with poor cardio and durability, and if Johnson survives the initial storm, he should win. He predicts a finish in the second round, possibly by submission due to Flowers tapping to strikes.
Cody picks Johnson, citing his superior skill set and experience against top competition. He notes Flowers' boxing record is poor (1-10) and that he has been knocked out multiple times. Johnson's takedown defense should be sufficient against Flowers, who is not a high-level wrestler. Cody expects a striking battle where Johnson's volume and power prevail, though he acknowledges Johnson's chin is a concern.
Johnson is far superior in striking and experience. He should be able to use his jab and footwork to stay away from Flowers' power and then find a knockout in the second or third round. Flowers has poor cardio and is not UFC-level. Johnson's takedown defense will keep the fight standing. At -125, Johnson is a no-brainer play.
Paul also picks Johnson, noting he has fought the best and has knockout wins over top guys. He thinks Flowers' only path is an early knockout, but Johnson's experience and durability should see him through. Paul mentions that Johnson's takedown defense is underrated and that Flowers is not a wrestler. He expects Johnson to win by decision or late stoppage.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson because he believes Johnson can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He references Johnson's shutdown of Mark Diakiese and his performance against Jamie Mullarkey. He does not see Darrius Flowers as a monster prospect and expects Johnson to win by TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 32 of 58 | 55% | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 1 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 46 | 10 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 32 of 58 | 55% | 13 of 34 | 17 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 24 of 55 | 43% | 13 of 37 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 27 of 46 | 58% | 12 of 29 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 27 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Diego Ferreira | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 9 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Michael Johnson | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, arguing that Johnson is the younger fighter (36 vs 38) and has fought tougher competition. He believes Johnson is the better striker with solid takedown defense and BJJ defense, and that Ferreira's three-fight skid is misleading because he lost to elite grapplers. He expects a close fight but favors Johnson's experience and IQ.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by decision as an underdog. He notes Johnson has good takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing, where he is the better striker. He is concerned about Ferreira's long layoff and age (38), and believes Johnson can outpoint him. However, he admits trusting Johnson with money is something he hasn't done in a long time.
Cody acknowledges Ferreira's grappling advantage and past success, but is concerned about his age (38), year-and-a-half layoff, and three-fight losing streak. He thinks Ferreira can win if he uses his wrestling, but is not confident given the unknowns.
Connor also picks Ferreira, agreeing that his grappling pressure will be too much for Johnson. He notes that Johnson has become a more measured fighter but still struggles against grapplers who go for finishes on the ground. He points out that even Mark Diakiese, who doesn't match Ferreira's style, was able to shut out Johnson by stifling his takedown attempts, but Ferreira's scrambling ability makes him a different threat.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Diego Ferreira, but with low confidence. He acknowledges Ferreira's recent losses to elite grapplers (Dariush, Gillespie, Camara) and his year off, but thinks Ferreira's BJJ is a major threat. He notes Michael Johnson has a speed advantage but Ferreira is sneaky with his striking and can take the fight to the ground. Levi believes in their primes, Ferreira wins, but is unsure about Ferreira's current form and durability.
The host picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior technical striking and ability to counter Ferreira's pressure. He notes Johnson's takedown defense will be crucial; if he keeps the fight upright, he should outland Ferreira. He expects a decision win, given Ferreira's age and layoff.
Paul is also hesitant, citing Ferreira's layoff and age. He notes that Michael Johnson's recent opponents didn't test his grappling, but Ferreira's wrestling could be the difference. He picks Ferreira but is not confident and will wait for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson as an underdog, believing he can KO Ferreira. He notes a massive speed difference on the feet and argues Johnson has faster hands than Poirier, who hit Ferreira with speed. He points to Johnson's improved takedown defense against Mark Madsen and his competitive fight with Jamie Mullarkey. He expects Ferreira to be hesitant on the feet after failing takedowns, leading to a KO for Johnson.
Zane picks Ferreira, citing the classic bad matchup for Michael Johnson: a relentless grappler who creates scrambles and submission threats. He acknowledges that Johnson has improved his takedown defense and become more disciplined, but Ferreira's ability to turn even failed takedowns into complicated exchanges will test Johnson's composure. He notes that Johnson has historically detonated when taken down, and Ferreira's style is exactly the kind that beats him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 83 of 181 | 45% | 83 of 181 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 55 of 127 | 43% | 55 of 127 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 30 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 11 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 41 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Marc Diakiese | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 83 of 181 | 45% | 37 of 116 | 37 of 55 | 9 of 10 | 79 of 171 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 3 |
| Marc Diakiese | 55 of 127 | 43% | 21 of 80 | 24 of 31 | 10 of 16 | 52 of 124 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 12 of 41 | 29% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Marc Diakiese | 23 of 38 | 60% | 6 of 16 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 30 of 61 | 49% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc Diakiese | 11 of 40 | 27% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 5 | 11 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Johnson | 41 of 79 | 51% | 18 of 48 | 19 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Marc Diakiese | 21 of 49 | 42% | 10 of 35 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 19 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marc Diakiese, citing his forward pressure, volume, and takedown threat. He thinks Diakiese will win by decision, working in some takedowns and grinding. He acknowledges Michael Johnson is a veteran who has fought the best and can be competitive, but believes Diakiese's improved wrestling and kickboxing will be too much. He does not expect a stoppage.
Big Brady picks Diakiese, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes Johnson has been taken down by lesser wrestlers (Clay Guida, Stevie Ray) and expects Diakiese to secure takedowns and grind out a decision. He acknowledges this is a step up in competition for Diakiese but believes he wins.
Cody picks Diakiese, noting his wrestling and Johnson's tendency to fade. He thinks Diakiese will spam takedowns and win a boring decision. He also likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
Connor picks Marc Diakiese, emphasizing that Johnson is extremely breakable when faced with wrestling. He notes that Diakiese has a strong wrestling game and Johnson has a history of losing once taken down, even when winning on the feet. Connor calls it a 'super Jacked Darren Elkins' matchup.
Daniel Levi picks Diakiese but is not interested in laying the price. He acknowledges Johnson's ability to beat top guys on his best day but cannot trust him. He notes Diakiese's wrestling and top control as keys.
The host is confident in Diakiese, noting his recent emphasis on grappling and takedowns. He thinks Diakiese will use his wrestling to control Johnson, who has poor grappling defense. He likes Diakiese by decision and considers him a reliable parlay piece. He mentions that Johnson has only one win in his last six or seven fights.
Paul is confident in Diakiese, citing his wrestling and Johnson's poor takedown defense and cardio. He parlayed Diakiese with RDA. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.
The MMA Guru picks Marc Diakiese, believing his grappling will be too much for Michael Johnson. He notes Diakiese has become a full-time grappler with technical takedowns, while Johnson's takedown defense has declined. He predicts Diakiese will dominate each round via decision, putting the crowd to sleep.
Zane picks Marc Diakiese confidently, noting that Diakiese is a gritty wrestler who has returned to his wrestling roots in recent fights. He points out that Michael Johnson crumbles when faced with wrestling pressure, as seen in fights against Stevie Ray and Darren Elkins, and Diakiese is a super jacked version of that style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 66 of 190 | 34% | 68 of 194 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 96 of 217 | 44% | 96 of 218 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 20 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 45 of 95 | 47% | 45 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 30 of 91 | 32% | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 31 of 69 | 44% | 31 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 66 of 190 | 34% | 42 of 147 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 58 of 179 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 96 of 217 | 44% | 54 of 160 | 21 of 34 | 21 of 23 | 83 of 195 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Michael Johnson | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Jamie Mullarkey | 18 of 57 | 31% | 11 of 44 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 45 of 95 | 47% | 24 of 69 | 11 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 34 of 79 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamie Mullarkey | 30 of 91 | 32% | 19 of 70 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 31 of 69 | 44% | 20 of 54 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Johnson as a +200 underdog, questioning why Mullarkey is a 2-1 favorite. He highlights Johnson's 78% takedown defense over 25 UFC fights, noting only Khabib and Clay Guida have taken him down multiple times. He believes Johnson's striking is underrated and he is not chinny, having been knocked out only once. He sees Mullarkey as a grappler who has been striking lately, and Johnson's experience gives him the edge.
Big Brady picks Jamie Mullarkey, citing his youth and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Mullarkey can mix in takedowns and make it a dirty fight, which could expose Michael Johnson's questionable ground game and tendency to make mistakes. He acknowledges Johnson is the better striker and could knock Mullarkey out, but believes Mullarkey's durability and pressure will earn him a decision win. He expresses surprise at Mullarkey being a -240 favorite.
Cody thinks Mullarkey's pressure and wrestling will be key against Johnson, who fades in later rounds. He notes Johnson's best round is the first, and if Mullarkey can survive that, he can take over. He believes Mullarkey's durability is still there despite the recent KO loss.
The host bets 1 unit on Michael Johnson at +225 as a value play. He thinks Johnson is the better striker, faster, and could knock out Mullarkey quickly. However, he also acknowledges that Mullarkey could have success and possibly finish Johnson later, so he also bets on the under 2.5 rounds to cover both sides. He sees the optimal outcome as Johnson by KO under 2.5 rounds.
Paul calls this a dogger pass situation. He's tempted by Johnson at plus money but notes Johnson's inconsistency. He thinks the price on Mullarkey is steep and isn't confident either way.
The Guru picks Jamie Mullarkey, praising his technical striking, solid chin, and grappling ability. He believes Mullarkey will wear Johnson down with body work and cage pressure, finishing him in the third round via cumulative damage. He notes Johnson's tendency to gas.
Tony Ferguson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 4 of 25 | 16% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 4 of 25 | 16% | 3 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Chiesa, calling Ferguson's seven-fight losing streak and CTE concerns. He thinks Chiesa's takedowns and top pressure will be too much for the faded Ferguson, who hasn't looked good in years. He says Chiesa at -400 should be -1500.
Big Brady thinks this fight should not be sanctioned due to Ferguson's seven-fight skid and brutal losses. He notes Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and Nate Diaz, and Chiesa has been submitted five times but has three d'arce choke losses. He predicts Chiesa will take Ferguson down and finish him by first-round submission, but also mentions a sprinkle on Ferguson by submission at +1400 as a prop.
Cody picks Tony Ferguson as a wild underdog, citing Chiesa's poor cardio, tendency to get submitted, and mental lapses. He notes that Ferguson has incredible durability and confidence, and that Chiesa has been submitted by lesser grapplers. Cody thinks Ferguson can win by volume or submission if Chiesa tires. He acknowledges it's a risky bet but feels the line is too wide.
Daniel refuses to pick a winner in this fight. He considers Chiesa a bully who can't take adversity and is overpriced at -750, while Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a seven-fight losing streak. He calls it a pass and says he won't pick either fighter.
Chiesa has the grappling to keep Ferguson on his back, but he has been submitted in five of seven losses. I lean Chiesa by decision, but would not tie -610 to any parlays. The value is on Ferguson by submission at +1200.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, noting that Chiesa is a -700 favorite but has lost three straight and has cardio issues. He thinks Ferguson can win a volume-based decision or even submit Chiesa, who leaves his neck out. Paul acknowledges it's a 'plug your nose' bet but feels the plus money is worth a small play. He also mentions that Ferguson's confidence is unshaken despite the losing streak.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age (40) and inability to wrestle. He expects Chiesa to use his size and strength to take Ferguson down and submit him, possibly by arm triangle. He notes Ferguson's training at Knuckleheads Boxing is not improving his game. He predicts a first or second round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 62 of 105 | 59% | 90 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 106 of 165 | 64% | 151 of 217 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 8:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 1 | 70 of 104 | 67% | 76 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 46 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 41 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 29 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 62 of 105 | 59% | 35 of 66 | 23 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Tony Ferguson | 106 of 165 | 64% | 73 of 127 | 13 of 17 | 20 of 21 | 66 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 56 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 29 of 55 | 52% | 16 of 32 | 10 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 70 of 104 | 67% | 43 of 72 | 11 of 15 | 16 of 17 | 54 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 | |
| 2 | Paddy Pimblett | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 27 | 70% | 16 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 18 | |
| 3 | Paddy Pimblett | 22 of 32 | 68% | 11 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Tony Ferguson | 17 of 34 | 50% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 16 |
Angelo picks Paddy Pimblett confidently, stating that Tony Ferguson is a shell of his former self and that Paddy is a young, cocky prospect. He notes that Paddy is in his 'anti-40 parlay' and expects a dominant win, though he feels bad for Ferguson.
Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by second-round submission, expressing strong disapproval that the fight is happening. He notes Tony Ferguson's six-fight losing streak, age (39), and accumulated damage, particularly after the Gaethje fight. Brady believes Ferguson is a shell of his former self, citing his poor performance against Bobby Green. He expects Pimblett to dominate and finish via submission or corner stoppage.
Cody picks Pimblett, arguing that Ferguson's last two fights showed he is shot, and that Pimblett's strength and top control will be decisive. He notes that Ferguson has given up 11 minutes of control time in recent fights and cannot get back up. Cody also mentions that Pimblett has taken a year off to refresh and is training with good partners, while Ferguson's personal issues and drinking have affected his performance.
Daniel Vreeland picks Paddy Pimblett, though he expresses sadness about picking against Tony Ferguson. He notes that Ferguson can no longer take a hit, especially after the Michael Chandler head kick. Vreeland believes Pimblett hits hard enough to knock out Ferguson, and that Ferguson's only path to victory is an early submission, which is unlikely. He expects Pimblett to win by knockout.
Jeff Fox picks Paddy Pimblett, stating that Ferguson is on a six-fight losing streak and has been finished in three straight. He notes that Pimblett is younger and more active, and that Ferguson's chin is gone. Fox believes Pimblett will finish Ferguson, possibly by knockout or submission.
Lucrative James is extremely confident Paddy Pimblett will win, calling it a setup fight. He believes Tony Ferguson is completely washed and on a seven-fight losing streak. He thinks Paddy will submit Ferguson, noting that Ferguson got submitted by Bobby Green and controlled by Charles Oliveira. He says Paddy should be a much heavier favorite and that the fight likely won't go to decision.
The host picks Pimblett but with low confidence, noting that Ferguson is a shell of his former self on a long losing streak. He expects Pimblett to walk Ferguson down, land big shots, and take him to the ground to grind out a decision, similar to how Oliveira and Dariush beat Ferguson. However, he is wary of the minus 285 line and acknowledges Ferguson could pull off a submission if he hurts Pimblett. He calls it a 'tailor-made' fight for Pimblett but expresses unease.
Paul picks Pimblett, stating that Tony Ferguson is 'absolutely cooked' after a six-fight losing streak. He notes that Ferguson has been submitted by Bobby Green and has no ability to get back up once taken down, as seen against Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. Paul believes Pimblett's strength and top control will be enough, and that the year off will have refreshed Pimblett. He expects a good version of Pimblett.
The Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's decline, especially his wrestling defense and inability to get back up. He believes Pimblett is too big and strong, and that Ferguson's legs are shot from training with David Goggins. He predicts Pimblett will take Ferguson down, get his back, and submit him with a rear-naked choke in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 54 of 123 | 43% | 62 of 138 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 137 of 217 | 63% | 145 of 227 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 14 of 42 | 33% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 40 of 72 | 55% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | King Green | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 49 of 77 | 63% | 57 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:36 | |
| 3 | King Green | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 48 of 68 | 70% | 48 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 54 of 123 | 43% | 38 of 98 | 11 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 50 of 118 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 137 of 217 | 63% | 95 of 166 | 24 of 31 | 18 of 20 | 115 of 183 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 14 of 42 | 33% | 11 of 33 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 40 of 72 | 55% | 23 of 50 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 12 | 39 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | King Green | 16 of 36 | 44% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 49 of 77 | 63% | 38 of 66 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 31 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 29 | |
| 3 | King Green | 24 of 45 | 53% | 13 of 33 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 48 of 68 | 70% | 34 of 50 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 45 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo is very confident in Bobby Green, mainly due to Tony Ferguson being a shell of his former self after taking severe beatings. He notes Green's volume, accuracy, and takedown defense, and believes Green will outpoint Ferguson. He also suggests a sneaky bet on over 1.5 rounds because Green is not a one-punch KO artist and Ferguson is durable.
Big Brady picks Bobby Green to win by third-round knockout. He believes Tony Ferguson is washed after taking life-changing damage and looking terrible in recent fights. He notes Green is not a finisher but expects him to finish Ferguson, possibly by mercy stoppage. He thinks this fight should not be sanctioned and predicts the end of Ferguson's UFC run.
Cody picks Green, citing Ferguson's decline after taking life-changing damage from Gaethje and Chandler. He notes Ferguson's takedown defense is poor (only one takedown in eight years) and his wrestling hasn't materialized. Green's boxing, takedown defense, and volume should outpoint Ferguson. He likes the prop of Green and over 1.5 rounds at -132.
James believes Ferguson is done, having lost five in a row and showing diminished durability and submission defense. He thinks Green can win, possibly by knockout, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. He leans under due to Green's recent finishes and Ferguson's decline.
Ferguson is on a five-fight losing streak and looks done. Green is a much more effective boxer than Diaz and will be aggressive after his last fight ended in a no contest. Green should outpoint Ferguson and possibly get a late stoppage. I'm leaning Green by decision but he might be more aggressive.
Paul agrees, arguing Ferguson's wins haven't aged well and his style is outdated. He highlights Green's counter-punching and takedown defense, and Ferguson's lack of power and inability to overwhelm Green. He expects a decision win for Green with Ferguson bleeding and behind on the scorecards.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 0 | 101 of 217 | 46% | 101 of 217 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 80 of 172 | 46% | 80 of 172 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 51 | 39% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 30 of 51 | 58% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Diaz | 101 of 217 | 46% | 71 of 178 | 21 of 30 | 9 of 9 | 99 of 214 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 80 of 172 | 46% | 23 of 106 | 23 of 27 | 34 of 39 | 80 of 172 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Diaz | 22 of 51 | 43% | 12 of 36 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 19 of 45 | 42% | 5 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Diaz | 28 of 59 | 47% | 19 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 51 | 39% | 5 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 10 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Diaz | 26 of 56 | 46% | 21 of 48 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 30 of 51 | 58% | 12 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 15 | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Nate Diaz | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 45 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 1 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Li Jingliang, citing Tony Ferguson's recent knockout and fast turnaround. He thinks Ferguson's chin is compromised and Jingliang's power and feints will confuse him. He notes Ferguson looked good against Chandler but was put out badly, and the three-month turnaround is too soon.
Big Brady picks Li Jingliang to win by first-round knockout, expressing concern for Tony Ferguson's durability after taking massive damage in recent fights. He notes Ferguson is 38, moving up in weight, and has been knocked out brutally by Chandler. He highlights Li's power, having knocked out tough fighters like Ponzinibbio and Salikhov, and predicts an early finish.
Cody is confident that Khamzat Chimaev will win, noting that Chimaev is a massive favorite and that Nate Diaz is an undersized former 155-pounder. He believes Chimaev's size and strength will be too much, and that Diaz's jiu-jitsu won't be a factor. Cody mentions that the only value is in props like Chimaev over 1.5 takedowns, and he doesn't see Diaz winning even one out of ten times.
Daniel Levi picks Khamzat Chimaev to win, citing Chimaev's wrestling and power as key factors. He acknowledges Diaz's durability and ability to survive, but believes Chimaev's improvements and pacing will lead to victory. Levi notes that Diaz's age and scar tissue could be issues, and he expects Chimaev to dominate with ground and pound. He is not betting the moneyline due to the heavy juice, but is confident in Chimaev's win.
Jacob picks Li Jingliang, emphasizing his feints and angles will give Ferguson PTSD. He thinks Ferguson will be gun-shy and react big to feints. He notes Ferguson could wrestle but doubts he will, and even if he does, Jingliang's takedown defense may hold. He calls it a bad matchup for Ferguson.
The host is extremely confident in Khamzat Chimaev, expecting him to take Nate Diaz down immediately and smash him on the ground. He dismisses Diaz's durability and jiu-jitsu, citing Chimaev's wrestling and size. He took under 1.5 rounds at +120 and suggests Chimaev round one at +165.
Paul picks Chimaev to win but expresses concerns about his cardio and persona. He notes that Chimaev's fight with Gilbert Burns showed he is human and may have cardio issues, and that the five-round fight could favor Diaz if Chimaev tires. However, he believes Chimaev has learned from that fight and will hold down Diaz more easily. Paul also mentions the over 1.5 rounds and over on takedowns as props.
The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson to win by 48-47 decision. He predicts Ferguson wins rounds 1, 2, and 4, while Diaz wins round 3, and round 5 is a stalemate. Ferguson chews up Diaz's leg and body with teeps and front kicks, lands elbows that cut Diaz, and freestyles with 360 body shots. Diaz has moments, including a takedown in round 3, but Ferguson scrambles out and lands more. The fight ends with both swinging, but Ferguson's output edges him the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 1 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 43 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 42 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 27 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 1 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chandler | 27 of 53 | 50% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 50 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chandler | 26 of 52 | 50% | 14 of 38 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 50 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | |
| 2 | Michael Chandler | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chandler (-380), Ferguson (+290)
Round 1
At one time, Ferguson (25-6, 15-4 UFC) had amassed an outstanding 12-fight win streak, where he claimed the interim title at one point, but he has fallen on hard times the last few years. On a three-fight skid, “El Cucuy” is at a crossroads at the age of 38, and he will take on hard-charging, granite-chinned Chandler (22-7, 1-2 UFC) in a match that still holds significance at 155 pounds. Referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full depending on how this battle plays out, and these two hope to bring out a firefight while not bothering to touch gloves. Ferguson reaches out with a low kick to see how far he can reach, and Chandler picks his leg up and scoots back. Ferguson arcs out a standing elbow, expecting Chandler to come at him, but Chandler does not oblige. Ferguson’s front kick brushes pass Chandler’s hand, and Chandler chops down the leg with a pair of heavy kicks. Chandler just misses with a left hook, and Ferguson meets him in the middle with his own left. Ferguson clips the former Bellator champ with a left hand, and he kicks high and stings Chandler. Ferguson hurts him again with a few punches, and he backs Chandler up to the wall. Ferguson does not go wild, instead working the body and getting caught with a left hand. They trade heavily and both connect and get the other’s attention, and it is Ferguson that lands the flusher strikes and backs Chandler off. Chandler throws a leg kick, only to get countered over the top. Blasting through with a double, “Iron Mike” knocks Ferguson clean off his feet with a tackling takedown, and Ferguson kicks off the fence and slashes with elbows off his back to open a cut on Chandler’s head. Ferguson cleverly holds on to Chandler with his feet on his hips, and he pushes Chandler off and nearly flips his man over as he keeps a high guard and attempts to hook up an omoplata. Ferguson snatches hold of a triangle choke until Chandler blasts him in the face, and he loads up on several punches to make Ferguson readjust his attempts at submission. Ferguson protests that Chandler is lowering his head down and clacking him in the face with his forehead, and Herzog warns Ferguson for grabbing the fence. Ferguson turns and nearly sweeps, but Chandler deftly remains on top and gets off some short ground-and-pound. Ferguson hacks with elbows off his back, and the blood from Chandler is leaking down into Ferguson’s eyes. Chandler looses a few punches and cuts Ferguson’s right eye, and the thrilling round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferguson
Round 2
Between rounds, Chandler’s right eye swells up substantially, but he does not appear remotely concerned about it as the round opens up. Before Ferguson can throw a single punch, Chandler summons all of his strength and calls on the legends of Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida to empower his right leg. In the most spectacular move tonight by a landslide, Chandler smashes the ball of his foot into Ferguson’s chin, and the light fades from Ferguson’s eyes in an instant. “El Cucuy” topples over, completely unconscious, and he slumps over on his face and is communing with his ancestors. Chandler celebrates, knowing there is nothing left for him to do today, and he hits several back flips in rapid succession, sticking the landing for each and every one. The video cuts to Molly McCann and Paddy Pimblett in the crowd, and appropriately so, as this knockout might have topped her incredible spinning back elbow earlier this year with the cleanest front kick knockout you will ever see. As Chandler is with his team, Ferguson is still out, but he finally manages to come around to the delight of everyone in the building. What an incredible knockout, one that will stand on highlight reels for years to come. Absolutely amazing. To top it off, Chandler calls for a fight with Conor McGregor in his post-fight interview, but good luck getting “Notorious” to take that fight after witnessing that astounding knockout.
The Official Result
Michael Chandler def. Tony Ferguson R2 0:17 via KO (Front Kick)
Angelo picks Michael Chandler, stating that everything Tony Ferguson does well, Chandler does better. He believes Chandler's chin has held up after the Gaethje war and expects a war similar to Chandler's last fight. He notes that Ferguson may not be the same after the Gaethje loss.
Big Brady picks Michael Chandler to win by decision. He notes that the blueprint to beat Ferguson is to take him down and control him, as Oliveira and Dariush did. However, Chandler is more of a striker and may not follow that blueprint. Brady thinks Chandler's power and wrestling could still get the job done, and he expects Chandler to mix in takedowns and win minutes on top. He is not laying -400 on Chandler but believes he will cruise to a decision. He acknowledges Ferguson's toughness and danger on the feet but thinks Chandler is closer to his prime.
Cody picks Michael Chandler but also dislikes the -380 price. He provides a detailed breakdown of Ferguson's decline, noting that Ferguson hasn't looked good in years, even in wins. Cody points out that Ferguson's game hasn't evolved, he trains alone, and his unorthodox style is no longer effective. He believes Chandler's wrestling and power will be too much, and that Chandler can take Ferguson's best shots. Cody expects Chandler to dominate early and possibly knock Ferguson out, but acknowledges Ferguson could win 3 out of 10 times.
Daniel Levi picks Michael Chandler confidently, though he does not bet the fight due to the high price. He notes Chandler's first-round explosiveness and wrestling fallback, while Ferguson has declined significantly, losing 11 straight rounds. He thinks Chandler's speed and power are too much for this version of Ferguson, but he is not interested in laying -425. He passes on betting entirely.
The host picks Michael Chandler to win by first-round knockout. He questions Chandler's wrestling approach, expecting him to stand and trade. He notes Ferguson's unorthodox style and durability, but believes Chandler's power will find the chin early. He is not betting Chandler at -400, but likes 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -180 and Ferguson submission at +750 as small shots. He acknowledges Ferguson's crafty jiu-jitsu and Chandler's history of being knocked out.
Paul picks Michael Chandler to win but is not confident at -380. He thinks Ferguson is washed and that Chandler will dominate early, possibly getting a finish. However, Paul is more interested in the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +150, citing Ferguson's durability. He notes that Ferguson has only been knocked out once (by Gaethje) and is tough to finish, so the decision prop offers value.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler by first-round KO, believing Tony Ferguson is done. He argues Ferguson's ground game is overrated and that Chandler can take him down or KO him. He notes Chandler's speed and leg kicks, and that Ferguson's chin is up in the air. He thinks Chandler will slip inside Ferguson's jab and land a big right hand. He also mentions Chandler has more to fight for, including a potential McGregor fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 37 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 76 of 142 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 12:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 32 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 26 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 4:04 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beneil Dariush | 15 of 34 | 44% | 10 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 10 |
| Tony Ferguson | 23 of 55 | 41% | 16 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beneil Dariush | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Tony Ferguson | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Beneil Dariush | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Tony Ferguson | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 3 | Beneil Dariush | 6 of 12 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Tony Ferguson | 7 of 13 | 53% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Up next is the long-awaited co-main event, which sees Ferguson (25-5, 15-3 UFC) try to snap the first losing streak of his career against the surging Dariush (20-4-1, 14-4-1 UFC). Hold on to your hats, this one is about to get crazy. Referee Mike Beltran clocks them in and they do not touch gloves, preferring to let their hands settle things instead. Ferguson stutter-steps forward into a left hand, but he is no worse for wear from it. Dariush kicks across Ferguson’s leg to his surprise, and he darts in with a left hook that falls short. Dariush charges in to attack, and Ferguson eats a few shots but is slick and moving everywhere to avoid the shots. Dariush scores another unusual leg kick to Ferguson’s rear leg, and Dariush is ready to brawl and throws hands to catch Ferguson off-guard. Dariush presses forward, and he hits a body lock takedown to plant Ferguson on his back. Ferguson kicks him off, scores an upkick, and pulls a high rubber guard when Dariush climbs back down. Dariush ignores it and pushes through to land a few punches to the body, but “El Cucuy” is holding him tight and elbowing him on the side of the head a few times. Ferguson looks to set up a triangle choke, but when that fails, he recovers his guard. Dariush sits up to start nailing Ferguson with punches and elbows, and Ferguson takes them on the chin all while continuing to hack back with elbows. Ferguson rolls over to nearly sweep Dariush, but he is pushed back over and finds himself surrendering half guard. Dariush steps over to set up an arm-triangle choke, and Ferguson looks to roll through and attack with an armbar as he pushes off the fence. Dariush sees it coming and flows with him, where he slides into Ferguson’s butterfly guard. The Kings MMA fighter resecures half guard, and he steps over to the other side to land some ground-and-pound. When Dariush looks to congratulate him for the round, Ferguson pushes him away to go back to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 2
The second round begins with Ferguson taking the center of the cage, and Dariush kicks his lead leg. Ferguson falls down Dariush looks to take him down. Instead of succumbing to a bad position, Ferguson attacks a brabo choke from his back against the wall. Dariush stays patient and unconcerned with the submission until Ferguson bails on it, where he looks to pull Ferguson’s legs out from beneath him. Dariush pulls him off the fence to put Ferguson flat on his back, and Dariush in full guard starts slugging away at Ferguson. Dariush ignores Ferguson’s flailing on his back to smash his fists on Ferguson’s head, and elbows and punches land until Ferguson tries to push him away. Dariush stays committed to keeping Ferguson grounded, and Ferguson attacks with a submission to get Dariush to back off. Ferguson sweeps Dariush in a wild scramble, and Dariush pulls him back down to attack a heel hook. Ferguson is in serious agony, and he grimaces but does not yell out and instead kicks Dariush in the chest to break the grip. As Dariush loosens the grip, he climbs over on top. Dariush steps into half guard, where he threatens with an arm-triangle choke but is more intent on smothering Ferguson’s face with his chest. Ferguson elbows him a few times, but Dariush does not care as he stays pressed heavy to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush
Round 3
Ferguson’s leg is severely compromised from the heel hook, and he tries to use his tricky movement but does not have his wheels about him. Dariush walks through any strikes to grab hold of Ferguson, and “El Cucuy” latches on to a guillotine choke. Dariush lifts him up and slams him down, where he breaks the grip and gains an advantageous position. The two end up in a north-south position as Ferguson kicks off the fence, but Dariush expertly traverses the guard to try to get side control. The crowd chants “stand them up,” and these chants echo through the Toyota Center, Beltran asks the fighters to keep moving. Dariush pulls on his adversary to try to get Ferguson’s legs away from the cage, and the two are in a grappling stalemate with no strikes thrown of any kind. Dariush grinds his elbow on Ferguson’s chin, and Ferguson holds on tight but is not doing anything of note either. This odd north-south posture continues as fans grow more restless, and Dariush hops over to side control. Ferguson looks to set up an arm-triangle choke from his back like Maurice Greene pulled off on Gian Villante, but Dariush breaks the grip and hops over on top. Ferguson rolls through and the two get back to their north-south with Ferguson’s feet on the cage, and Dariush spins through to try to land strikes. Ferguson closes his guard and Dariush lands a few short punches to the body. Dariush finishes the fight with a few punches from above, and Ferguson answers with elbows to end this disappointing yet one-sided lightweight clash.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dariush (30-27 Dariush)
The Official Result
Beneil Dariush def. Tony Ferguson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Ferguson has taken massive damage and looks diminished. Dariush is a BJJ black belt with good striking and takedowns. He can implement a similar game plan to Oliveira: take Ferguson down and control him. Ferguson is tough to finish, so I expect a decision win for Dariush.
Cody also picks Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline and poor game plans. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging and he hasn't knocked anyone out in years. Cody believes Dariush is a thinking man's fighter who will use takedowns and top control to win. He points out that Ferguson's takedown defense is weak and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Cody expects Dariush to win the first round and then secure a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline since his knee injury and the Gaethje fight. He notes Dariush's six-fight win streak, knockout power, and jiu-jitsu credentials, and believes Dariush can mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Levi is concerned about Dariush's tendency to leave openings and gas, but thinks Ferguson's durability and chin have diminished. He expects Dariush to dominate and win via decision or late stoppage.
The host picks Dariush but is not confident, noting Ferguson's chaotic style could cause problems. He thinks Dariush should have a grappling advantage and grind out a decision, but worries about Ferguson's ability to create volatility. He says he is not running to the betting window on Dariush.
Paul picks Dariush, citing Ferguson's decline. He notes that Ferguson has lost to elite guys and looked abysmal in his last two fights. Paul believes Dariush's wrestling and game planning will be key, as he can take Ferguson down and neutralize him, similar to what Oliveira did. He mentions that Ferguson's takedown defense is poor and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Paul expects Dariush to win by decision, using takedowns to control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age and recent decline. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging poorly and that Dariush thrives under chaos, which is key against Ferguson. He predicts Dariush will control the fight with grappling and win a unanimous decision 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 41 of 63 | 65% | 86 of 112 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 11:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 28 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 34 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 24 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Oliveira | 19 of 42 | 45% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 41 of 63 | 65% | 26 of 43 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Oliveira | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 16 of 28 | 57% | 12 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Charles Oliveira | 6 of 7 | 85% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Tony Ferguson | 12 of 16 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | |
| 3 | Charles Oliveira | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 13 of 19 | 68% | 8 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson to win by third-round knockout. He believes Ferguson's pace and volume will break Oliveira, who has cardio issues and has been finished in six of seven losses. He notes Oliveira's improved striking but thinks Ferguson's pressure and durability will be key. He is not in love with the -170 line but might look at inside the distance or under props.
Daniel acknowledges Ferguson's historical superiority and higher level of competition, but expresses concerns about Ferguson's recent interviews and potential damage from the Gaethje fight. He thinks Oliveira's boxing has improved but is not convinced Oliveira has truly turned a corner. He ultimately picks Ferguson but calls it a dog-or-pass situation, noting he is not confident.
Ferguson's relentless pressure and unorthodox style will break Oliveira, who has historically folded under pressure. Oliveira's best chance is an early finish, but if it goes past the first round, Ferguson will drown him. Ferguson's cardio and durability are superior. Expect a second-round TKO or submission for Ferguson.
The MMA Guru picks Tony Ferguson, despite many picking Oliveira. He believes Ferguson's chin, experience against better competition, and ability to win on the feet will be key. He expects Ferguson to win by TKO in the third round. He notes Oliveira's tendency to slow down and fail at the top level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 136 of 296 | 45% | 136 of 296 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 143 of 197 | 72% | 143 of 197 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 26 of 37 | 70% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 37 of 50 | 74% | 37 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 24 of 69 | 34% | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 36 of 73 | 49% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tony Ferguson | 0 | 34 of 39 | 87% | 34 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 136 of 296 | 45% | 64 of 212 | 36 of 43 | 36 of 41 | 136 of 296 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 143 of 197 | 72% | 100 of 153 | 13 of 14 | 30 of 30 | 143 of 197 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Gaethje | 29 of 54 | 53% | 13 of 36 | 10 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 26 of 37 | 70% | 15 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Justin Gaethje | 33 of 64 | 51% | 17 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 13 | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 37 of 50 | 74% | 24 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 37 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Justin Gaethje | 24 of 69 | 34% | 13 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 20 of 35 | 57% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Justin Gaethje | 36 of 73 | 49% | 17 of 50 | 13 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 26 of 36 | 72% | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Justin Gaethje | 14 of 36 | 38% | 4 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Ferguson | 34 of 39 | 87% | 29 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Here we go, folks. It’s time for the main event, and the bonus checks have practically already been written for these two. For the interim lightweight belt, and a chance to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov, is a potentially thrilling encounter between Ferguson (25-3, 15-1 UFC) and Gaethje (21-2, 4-2 UFC). Together, the two have pocketed 15 post-fight bonuses in their last 16 fights, and referee Herb Dean will look to keep things clean as they head into glorious battle. The glove touch leads into a few seconds of circling until Ferguson throws a front kick. Gaethje opens up with a leg kick, but it is shy of the mark. Tony turns his back to showboat a little, and then throws a superman punch that chains into a two punch combination. Gaethje loses his balance, but regains it quickly to throw a heavy left hand. Ferguson rolls with it, and eats a leg kick. Ferguson takes another hard leg kick and tries to counter over the top, but Gaethje is ready for him with a two-punch salvo. Ferguson scores an inside leg kick that slightly trips Gaethje, but “The Highlight” still manages to land a right hand. A thumping left hook from Gaethje surprises Ferguson, but “El Cucuy” is not too concerned with it. Ferguson jabs to the body and ducks down just in time to avoid a lethal left hook. Ferguson catches Gaethje with a head kick and immediately sticks him with a jab. Gaethje bullies him over, and Ferguson rolls out to get back up. Gaethje connects with another nasty leg kick, and both swing with crazy right hands that just miss. “The Highlight” scores a few more short kicks, and Ferguson is smiling at him as he tries to stick out long punches and kicks. Ferguson digs in with a low kick, and gets countered with a right hand that makes him stumble. A small mouse has formed on the center of Ferguson’s forehead, and he takes another right hand right to the same spot. They jab each other, and both crack each other with vicious left hooks. Gaethje comes at him with another, and a glancing eye poke leads to an apology from Gaethje. The round end with both men kicking at each other.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 2
They greet each other with punches in the face, as Ferguson sneaks in with another superman punch and Gaethje comes back with a right hand. They load up on big punches, and Gaethje connects with a blistering left hook but Ferguson takes it without issue. A thin trickle of blood appears to be coming from the nose of Gaethje, but he does not care as he commits to a thunderous left hand that nearly lifts Ferguson off the ground. Ferguson does not even show a wobble in his step, but takes a low kick when trying to show he is not hurt. Another kick from Gaethje makes Ferguson visibly react to it, and Ferguson swings and misses with a big hook. Gaethje throws one back that blows his hair back, and then clashes a right hand off the dome of his opponent. These two are trading one for the other, and both are having their moments of success. A one-two from Ferguson does not bother Gaethje, who replies with much heavier punches. The ex-WSOF champ rips to the body and then fires a left on the side of Ferguson’s head. Gaethje is loading up on all his punches, and busts up the nose of Ferguson and damages his eye. Gaethje swings from downtown to nail Ferguson on the head, but the former interim champ does not appear to be too concerned. Ferguson spins with a back elbow, and then turns about to land a leg kick. As Ferguson overcommits to an overhand right, a leg kick from Gaethje nearly buckles his knee. Gaethje digs deep and wings a right hand that would put most fighters on the canvas, but Ferguson wades through it. Two punches from Gaethje crack Ferguson on the chin, but like before, there is no reaction. With the round about to end, both men fire Mortal Kombat-esque uppercuts, and Ferguson lands flush and drops Gaethje. What a way to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 3
The two are not afraid to engage in Round 3, Ferguson is taking heavy shots but walks through them to land his own. The power significantly in the favor of Gaethje, Ferguson’s durability is unbelievable as he takes a picture-perfect right and left that bust him open. The damage is instant, as he is bleeding out of the side of his left eye while there is also a cut and a mouse forming under his right. Ferguson leaps forward with a trick punch, but Gaethje times it with a left hand to back him off. They time uppercuts on one another, and a crisp right hook nearly knocks Ferguson down. Gaethje senses he has him hurt, finally, and Gaethje is swinging to finish the fight. Ferguson comes back with an uppercut, and blows his nose out while walking him down. Gaethje cracks Ferguson about as good as anyone could possibly land, and Ferguson takes it like no one else. “El Cucuy” strings together a few punches while avoiding the counter left hook that comes his way. Ferguson catches him on the end of a left hand, but Gaethje is still loading up on right hands that are connecting with ferocious intent. A few jabs to the body force a momentary deep breath from Gaethje, and Ferguson sweeps low to kick Gaethje’s legs out. Ferguson starts to get loose, faking wild arm movement to get his way in and tag Gaethje. Gaethje cracks him with a head kick and follows it with a ridiculous right hand, and yet again Ferguson eats it. A leg kick from Gaethje and a few kicks from each fighter conclude this ludicrous round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 4
Gaethje begins the round with a heavy leg kick, and Ferguson is hunched low perhaps to throw Gaethje off. Ferguson’s corner Eddie Bravo recommended that Ferguson pursue an Imanari roll to surprise Gaethje, which could be the reason for his low stance. Ferguson misses with a wheel kick, and Gaethje comes back with a powerful right hand. “El Cucuy” loads up on an elbow but he get caught on the way in, and when he tries to gain distance, he gets clipped with a right. Lefts and rights are coming en masse for Gaethje, but the former WSOF champion lands an incredibly successful leg kick that makes Ferguson grimace as he spins around. Ferguson sneaks him with a left hand, and Gaethje returns fire with a devastating right hand that wobbles his legs. That shot finally damaged the chin of Ferguson, and the leg kicks have been helping as well. Ferguson avoids some damage while spinning against the fence, and they get back to the center of the cage while Gaethje rips a few more leg kicks. Ferguson gets his sea legs about him, and as they come together, a low kick from Ferguson lands low. Gaethje shakes it off, and Dean pauses it for just a moment before Gaethje waves him off to keep fighting. Gaethje does not want to let Ferguson off the hook, but Ferguson is the one engaging now in the form of a multitude of jabs off the bow. As Ferguson goes for another jab, Gaethje blasts the lead leg and makes Ferguson’s knee buckle. Ferguson somehow manages to walk through it, so Gaethje gives one more for good measure. Both men trade head kicks, and the fourth round is now in the books.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 5
Gaethje shows no fear as he begins the round with a right hand and a leg kick that gives Ferguson pause. Ferguson manages to check the kick, and his shins are bleeding as a result. A right hand from Gaethje stings him, and Ferguson wears it well to get back his composure. Gaethje racks him with two more punches, and a leg kick forces Ferguson to limp. Ferguson kicks Gaethje’s leg, and Gaethje is not thrilled with having to each that along with another that follows. Two punches from Ferguson are countered by Gaethje, who clubs him in the face with punches that make Ferguson do the chicken dance. Hurt again, Ferguson bounces back against the fence, but still manages to come back around. In a desperate effort, Ferguson rolls for that Imanari roll, but Gaethje is a long way away. Ferguson gets back up, and Gaethje makes him pay for it with a few loud leg kicks and thudding right hands. He connects with another few right hands, and Ferguson wears them shocking well given how much damage he has accumulated over the course of the fight. The head strike totals from Gaethje are likely astronomical,
and a stiff left jab sends Ferguson into a walking stupor. Ferguson is falling across the cage, and Gaethje chases him down while Ferguson’s eyes are badly damaged and blinded with blood. A few more punches from Gaethje force Dean to intervene and stop the fight, and this is a righteous stoppage even though Ferguson doesn’t agree with it. What a battle, what total mayhem that was.
Gaethje is now the first fighter to ever knock out the otherworldly durable Ferguson. Justin Gaethje is now the new interim UFC lightweight champion, and scored himself a chance to take on Khabib Nurmagomedov. In his post-fight interview, Gaethje hurls the interim belt off of his waist, and tells Joe Rogan, “I want the real one.”
The Official Result
Justin Gaethje def. Tony Ferguson R5 3:39 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Tony Ferguson, expecting him to break Gaethje over time by wearing him down. He notes Gaethje's tendency to tire and get hit, and Ferguson's never been finished by strikes. He predicts a knockout in the third or fourth round. However, he criticizes the line at minus 185 as too wide, suggesting it should be closer to a pick'em, and sees value on Gaethje.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's insane pace, unorthodox footwork, and front kicks to the gut. He believes Ferguson will drown Gaethje in the later rounds, though he acknowledges Gaethje's power and cardio. Levi notes that Ferguson's chin tends to lift when teeing off, which could be dangerous against Gaethje, but he trusts Ferguson's ability to avoid a concussive blow and take over.
Matt picks Ferguson but is not confident at -185, calling the line too wide. He believes Ferguson's unorthodox style, cardio, and jiu-jitsu can overwhelm Gaethje in later rounds. He sees value on Gaethje at +160 and suggests the under 2.5 rounds as a possible bet, but he plans to just enjoy the fight without betting.
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