Career Averages - Kayla Harrison
Career Averages - Holly Holm
Kayla Harrison
Holly Holm
Kayla Harrison - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 59 of 88 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 22 of 30 | 73% | 35 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 9 of 30 | 30% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Kayla Harrison | 30 of 54 | 55% | 17 of 39 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Kayla Harrison | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 3 of 13 | 23% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kayla Harrison | 22 of 30 | 73% | 12 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 8 |
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison based on her Olympic judo credentials and physicality. He acknowledges Peña's toughness and ability to survive, but thinks relying on Kayla gassing is not a real strategy. He notes Kayla has fought 25 minutes before and can win the first three rounds. He finds the odds too wide and is hesitant to bet on Kayla.
Big Brady is confident in Kayla Harrison, citing her ability to take down anyone, including Ketlen Vieira who has great takedown defense. He notes Peña's 23% takedown defense and questions her motivation. He expects Harrison to get the fight to the ground, mix in ground and pound, and eventually submit Peña in the second round. He mentions weight cut concerns but thinks Harrison will dominate if she makes weight.
Connor picks Peña, citing the potential for Harrison to get anxious and gas if Peña pressures her. He notes that Peña's chaotic, relentless style could rattle Harrison, who has shown discomfort in striking exchanges. Connor admits it's a risky pick but thinks the funnier outcome and Peña's ability to exploit Harrison's unease make it plausible.
Harrison is much better than Peña in every area. She will utilize her physicality, judo, and grappling to get Peña to the ground, wear her out, and ground and pound her for a TKO victory, becoming the new bantamweight champion.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison by decision, citing her physicality and grappling advantage. He criticizes Peña's standup as abysmal and notes Harrison's strength will be too much. He acknowledges Harrison's standup is not great but believes she will out-grapple Peña. He thinks Peña is tough but difficult to finish, so he predicts a decision win. He notes the odds of -600 are too high, suggesting value on Peña by submission.
Zane picks Kayla Harrison, reasoning that Peña's takedown defense is poor and Harrison's judo and top control should be enough to dominate. He acknowledges Harrison's striking is awkward and she can panic, but believes Peña's wild aggression will play into Harrison's strengths. Zane notes the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer to -200.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 24 of 61 | 39% | 67 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 55 of 94 | 58% | 98 of 149 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 7:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 27 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 37 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 3 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 23 of 32 | 71% | 34 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 24 of 61 | 39% | 12 of 38 | 4 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 55 of 94 | 58% | 34 of 69 | 14 of 16 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 50 | 15 of 17 | 21 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 5 of 16 | 31% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 17 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 14 of 32 | 43% | 8 of 22 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 15 of 35 | 42% | 8 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kayla Harrison | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 23 of 32 | 71% | 19 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 23 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Harrison (-800), Vieira (+550)
Round 1
Even though she is currently ranked higher than her opponent, Vieira (14-3, 8-3 UFC) finds herself as a massive betting underdog at around +700 against enormous favorite Harrison (17-1, 1-0 UFC). Anything can happen in this glorious sport, and it often does. This grappling-centric affair will draw oversight from referee Marc Goddard, and the main card commences as the bantamweights touch ‘em up. Vieira flicks out a jab towards the jittery Harrison, and she gets knocked back by a left hand. Vieira reaches out with her right hand, and chants in support of her opponent rain down in the form of “USA!” Harrison does not channel this energy immediately, taking to the center of the cage and checking a low kick. Harrison kicks her to the chest, and Vieira skirts out the outer edge of the cage. Harrison tries to hit a trip, and Vieira slips away. Harrison fires off a high kick, and Vieira blocks it as the judoka stumbles. Harrison springs back to her feet and grasps Vieira around the waist, delivering knees to the body as Vieira tries to catch them fruitlessly. Harrison goes for a knee up top, and she hunts for a few trips to no avail. Harrison slams a knee in the ribs, and she uses her other to smack the Brazilian in the face with it. Goddard asks for more activity, and the audience turns on the ladies as they spend a lot of time in the clinch. Vieira tries to escape, and she blocks a knee and wings as right hand that bounces off the guard. Harrison checks another kick and parries a body kick, and she returns fire with her own kick to the stomach. Harrison sticks and moves with a low kick and one high, and Vieira swings and misses. This allows Harrison to close in on her, and she bowls Vieira over and ultimately lands in half guard. “USA” chants for Harrison rain down again, and she moves to mount and blasts Vieira in the face with an elbow. Vieira turns around to give up her back, and Harrison follows her every step of the way, battering her with elbows and punches. Vieira rides out the position under fire until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle, and they lob inaccurate strikes at one another. The first one landed is a low kick from the American, and she dances out of the way of a few long right hands from Vieira. Vieira sits down on a right hand to catch Harrison on the chin, and she gets tripped out with an inside low kick. Vieira stands back up without issue, and she parries a high kick. Vieira gets off her own leg kick, and she again tags Harrison with a right on the side of the head. Vieira digs a right to the body, and Harrison punches her way into a takedown attempt where she grabs the leg and puts her hand behind the neck to throw her foe down. Vieira fights it off and resets, blocking another head kick so she can jab Harrison in the ribs. Harrison shoots for a takedown and complains of an eye poke when Vieira posted off, and Harrison signals she is fine and does not need to pause. Vieira stops two more attempts and lands a few strikes, and Harrison plants her feet to connect with a heavy leg kick. Harrison pushes in tight to the clinch, and she is warned for holding the fence. Vieira breaks away, and Harrison plows forward with a knee to the body before clinching up again. While Vieira answers with an elbow, she cannot gain any space. Vieira rings her bell with another elbow, and Harrison pushes through it to get back up close and personal with knees to the body. Vieira blasts her with another elbow, and swelling has developed above Harrison’s right eye. Harrison digs several more knees to the body, and blood trickles out of the lump on her head. Goddard asks for more action, and he splits them up with 20 seconds left in the round. Vieira kicks low, gets checked, and pushes past a head kick to throw one back. The round ends with both ladies whiffing on kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Round 3
The ladies bump fists and then bow to one another to start the round. Harrison comes out aggressively, blocking a kick and shooting in for a double. Vieira breaks out of it and lobs back a one-two that busts open Harrison’s nose, with blood flowing immediately. Harrison tries for another takedown, and that fails again. Harrison gets off an inside leg kick that disrupts Vieira’s balance, and she pursues a takedown and comes up short. Harrison checks a calf kick and goes for a takedown that is nowhere close to landing. Vieira swipes a right to the body, and her guard is high to block a head kick. Harrison crashes forward for a takedown, lifts Vieira’s leg up and cannot get her down. On Harrison’s second attempt, she succeeds in wrenching the Brazilian to the mat. Vieira tries to tug on the fencing to stop it, but she is placed on her back with Harrison raining down elbows. Vieira pushes her back, and Harrison comes back to drill her with a left hand. Harrison stays busy with ground-and-pound, and Vieira pulls her toes on the wire to get to a more advantageous position. Harrison postures up to drop down three left hands, and Vieira throws her legs up for a high guard or a triangle choke. Harrison is wise to it and continues slamming down punches, and she brings down the hammer with a few high-amplitude elbows. Harrison passes to half guard, and she slices over to mount with 45 seconds to spare. Harrison slashes down with a few elbows, and Vieira clings to her tightly. Vieira turns over, and Harrison spins with her and wrenches on her neck with a brute force crank more than a choke. Harrison swirls over to half guard when Vieira turns, and she gets pushed to her feet as the match concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (30-27 Harrison)
The Official Result
Kayla Harrison def. Ketlen Vieira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison to dominate, citing her Olympic gold medal judo and physical strength. He notes Ketlen Vieira relies on being big and strong to bully opponents, but that won't work against Harrison. He expects Harrison to toss Vieira and control the fight. He also suggests looking at the under 2.5 rounds line for potential value.
Big Brady picks Kayla Harrison confidently, acknowledging Vieira is solid but believes Harrison is on a different level. He expects Harrison's judo to overcome Vieira's takedown defense, and once on top, Harrison will control and win a decision, possibly with a finish. He notes the weight cut is something to monitor.
Cody picks Harrison, believing her Judo and ground-and-pound will be effective. He acknowledges Vieira's takedown defense and altitude concerns but thinks Harrison's UFC debut win over Holly Holm showed her potential. He warns against betting the heavy favorite.
Connor also picks Harrison, echoing Zane's reasoning. He notes that Vieira has never believed in her hands since being knocked out by Raquel Pennington and relies on clinch work, which plays into Harrison's strengths. Connor expects Harrison to win impressively and set up a title fight.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Kayla Harrison, calling her a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. He notes that Harrison's drop to 135 has made her more explosive and athletic. While Vieira has 92% takedown defense, Vreeland believes Harrison's Judo and wrestling will overcome that. He expects Harrison to win and secure a title shot, though he is unsure of the method.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison. He admits he hasn't been the biggest Harrison fan and has faded her before, but notes that her one-dimensional grappling is so elite that it doesn't matter. He points out that Harrison's takedown game is elite and she is physically very strong for the weight class, even though she is cutting a lot of weight. He believes she will pile things on and get a win, possibly by submission.
Jeff Fox picks Kayla Harrison. He notes that Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo and has elite grappling. He believes her takedown game and physical strength will be too much for Ketlen Vieira, even though Vieira has a grappling base. Fox thinks Harrison will dominate on the ground and likely get a finish.
The host thinks the odds are a bit wide for his liking but still believes Harrison will go out and grind the fight out. He notes Harrison is the superior grappler and may be at a disadvantage in striking, but not enough to prevent her from closing distance and using judo. He expects Harrison to win on the scorecards, as Vieira will show enough resistance to avoid a finish.
Paul picks Harrison, noting her world-class grappling and the fact that she can now use elbows in the UFC. He mentions Vieira's cardio issues and Harrison's ability to grind out a win, but cautions about the weight cut and altitude.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison over Ketlen Vieira, citing Harrison's dominant grappling and physicality. He notes Harrison's ability to toss around training partners like Alex Pereira and her past performance against Holly Holm. He believes Harrison will be the champion and that Vieira is not on her level. He also mentions the fight is three rounds, so altitude is less of a concern.
Zane picks Harrison confidently, noting that Vieira is a swing-and-clinch artist who lacks the nuance to deal with Harrison's superior judo and grappling. He highlights Harrison's adjustment in the Holly Holm fight where she let go of a hip toss to land in top position. Zane expects Harrison to dominate in the clinch and win decisively.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 51 of 71 | 71% | 68 of 91 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 4:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 46 of 62 | 74% | 56 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 12 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 2 of 12 | 16% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Holly Holm | 51 of 71 | 71% | 46 of 66 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Holly Holm | 46 of 62 | 74% | 43 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 51 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.
Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.
Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.
Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.
Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.
Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.
Holly Holm - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 51 of 71 | 71% | 68 of 91 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 4:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 46 of 62 | 74% | 56 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 12 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 2 of 12 | 16% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Holly Holm | 51 of 71 | 71% | 46 of 66 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Holly Holm | 46 of 62 | 74% | 43 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 51 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.
Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.
Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.
Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.
Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.
Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 27 of 39 | 69% | 50 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 20 of 37 | 54% | 31 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 26 of 38 | 68% | 49 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 30 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 27 of 39 | 69% | 15 of 24 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 31 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 20 of 37 | 54% | 9 of 21 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 28 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 26 of 38 | 68% | 15 of 24 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 20 of 30 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 19 of 33 | 57% | 8 of 17 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 24 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-170), Bueno Silva (+145)
Round 1
Likely the lone fight on the card with immediate championship implications, former champ Holm (15-6, 8-6 UFC) will look to send a message to the matchmakers that she is still at the top of her game at 41 years of age. Silva (10-2-1, 5-2-1 UFC), 10 years younger, is gunning for an upset, with upwards of five rounds to do just that. Needing no further introduction, referee Keith Peterson prepares for the bantamweight main attraction, one that opens up with a quick tap of gloves and not a lick of nonsense. Silva advances slowly, and Holm races at her and throws punches to back her away. Silva kicks the lead calf twice, and Holm gives her a scare with a head kick. Holm is moving quickly on the outside, and she sticks Silva twice with right hands before changing levels for a single. Silva stands up and elbows her foe in the face, leading Holm to let it go and squeeze against her in the clinch. They trade short knees on the inside to little effect, and Holm settles down to impose her weight and will. Holm pushes off and gets away without a strike on the break, and she lifts her leg up to check a body kick. Holm moves quickly to get Silva’s attention with a few punches, and she is out of the way before a counter finds its mark. Holm uses her momentum to clinch Silva up again. When they stall out, Holm times an elbow to break away, and she separates to back off only to lunge forward with a few punches. Silva wings an elbow that slams into Holm’s temple, and Holm has to shake it off and retreat. Silva chases with a few punches, and Holm kicks her way out of a clinch and starts working the body with her feet. Silva comes up short on a front kick, and Holm bounces around before Silva comes towards her. Holm dodges a spinning strike, and she takes a left on the chin and a subsequent right hand to stun Holm. The former champ shoots in for a double after getting her bell rung, and the Brazilian keeps her back to the cage wall and even lifts up a knee to hit Holm during the takedown. Silva motions to Peterson to get between them, but the round ends with Holm hanging on tight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Round 2
Holm paces back and forth in her corner before they start fighting again, and Silva takes the center of the cage and gets kicked in the midsection on the way in. Cutting Holm off, Silva pops Holm with a right hook. The former kickboxer moves forward to clinch, and Silva slides her arm under the chin with her back leaned against the wall.
As Holm leans over for a potential takedown, Silva connects her arm to set up a ninja choke that is a modified, dangerous guillotine choke. Holm wriggles but is shocked at this situation, as she is trapped and cannot come up with a way to get out of the bad spot. “Sheetara” leans forward to press her chest down and put more pressure on the neck and submission grip, and she knows she has set the hook. Before she goes out, Holm frantically taps out on the side of her opponent.
Peterson rushes to the other side to see if there had been a tap, and Silva releases the grip before Peterson is able to get between them and separate them. This is a massive feather in the cap for the Brazilian, who is only the second fighter to ever submit Holm – and the first, Miesha Tate, did so to win the bantamweight title. The victorious Silva is the only betting underdog to have pulled off a win tonight, and she made a real statement and stamped herself as an instant contender for the champ-less division. In her post-fight interview, Silva speaks about her mental health issues, thanking those that helped her through the worst days that are behind her. Calling for a title shot, it could be entirely possible that “Sheetara” punched her ticket for that opportunity, as the line of contenders is hardly a determined one. If she gets the next crack at the 135-pound title, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mayra Bueno Silva def. Holly Holm R2 0:38 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
Angelo is confident in Holly Holm, calling her the more technical striker with better takedown defense and offense. He notes Silva's losses have come via wrestling, and Holly can do the same. He thinks Holly can hold Silva against the cage, get takedowns, and avoid submissions. He placed a one-unit moneyline bet at minus 160. He disagrees with a DM suggesting Silva should be the favorite, stating Holly has earned the right to be favored.
Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with hesitation, as he sees two clear outcomes: Holm dominating on the feet or Bueno Silva catching an armbar. He notes Holm is 41 but still looks good, and if she fights smart and keeps it standing, she should cruise. However, he worries Holm might take Bueno Silva down and get submitted. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.
Cody picks Holly Holm, comparing her to a Rolex watch that keeps going. He highlights her high ring IQ, ability to adapt, and wrestling improvements. He notes Silva's takedown defense issues and that Holm can mix in takedowns. He expects Holm to Matador from the outside, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, possibly winning championship rounds.
James is leaning towards Mayra Bueno Silva as an underdog. He notes that Holly Holm is 41 years old and may be declining, while Bueno Silva has strong submission skills and finishing ability. He mentions that many respected bettors are on Holm, but he is skeptical of her grappling and thinks Bueno Silva could submit her. He plans to watch more tape but is leaning towards the dog side.
The host believes Holm's veteran savvy and clinch-heavy approach will keep her safe from Bueno Silva's submissions. He expects Holm to mix striking, clinch, and grappling to cruise to a decision win. He notes Bueno Silva's lack of urgency and low volume as weaknesses.
Paul picks Holly Holm, citing her technical striking, experience, and ability to win at range. He expects a slow, tepid fight with Holm winning a decision, similar to the Vieira fight. He notes the line moved from -145 to -180, so he missed his betting window. He also mentions the PrizePicks over 90.5 significant strikes is tight and won't play it.
The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm over Mayra Bueno Silva, noting Holm's activity, athleticism, and ability to control fights against the cage. He questions Silva's cardio for a five-round fight and doubts her submission threat, believing Holm can dictate where the fight takes place. He predicts Holm wins by decision or late stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 32 of 63 | 50% | 105 of 163 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 9:49 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 120 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 24 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 50 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 38 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 38 of 60 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:59 |
| Yana Santos | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 32 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 32 of 63 | 50% | 23 of 49 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 25 |
| Yana Santos | 21 of 46 | 45% | 3 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 10 of 15 | 15 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Yana Santos | 12 of 25 | 48% | 2 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 16 of 33 | 48% | 12 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 21 |
| Yana Santos | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
| Yana Santos | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Holm, calling her one of his two most confident picks on the card. He notes that Holm is a technical striker with great footwork and that her age (41) matters less because she doesn't rely on speed or take much damage. He points out that Santos lacks power, which plays into Holm's style, and that Santos is coming off a two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Holm should dominate and that the line should be wider, but he is wary of betting women's MMA due to past upsets.
Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with low confidence, citing red flags on both sides. He notes Holm's age (41) and decline in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira, as well as a layoff. On Santos' side, she just had a baby and got married, which Brady views as potential distractions. He expects Holm to win by holding Santos against the cage for three rounds in a boring decision, but calls the fight a 'big pass' for betting.
Cody picks Holly Holm but is hesitant due to her age and potential decline. He notes Holm has shifted to a wrestling-heavy game plan and is effective in the clinch. He believes Holm should win but doesn't like the -250 moneyline, preferring Holm by decision at -115. He acknowledges the Pat Mayo theory of betting women's underdogs but still leans Holm. He mentions Holm's durability and Santos coming off a KO loss.
Connor picks Holm because Santos is fragile and tends to revert to clinching when pressured, which plays into Holm's strength. He notes Holm's striking has slowed but she remains strong in the clinch and hard to hurt. He expects Holm to hold Santos on the fence for three rounds and win a decision.
Jacob also picks Holm, agreeing she is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Holm is not a finisher and the fight likely goes to decision, which could be risky with Texas judges. He mentions that Santos might be aggressive and that the optics could favor her if she pressures, but he thinks Holm should dominate. He says he found plus money on Holm and has a bet on her, but does not specify the exact prop.
The host expects another veteran performance from Holly Holm, believing she will grind against Yana Santos against the cage, utilize her superior strength and power, drag the fight to the ground, and do good work from top position. He notes that Santos is coming off a layoff after having a baby, which adds uncertainty. He thinks Holm's physical fitness and longevity are exceptional for her age, and that strength advantage will be key. He predicts Holm wins by decision.
The Guru picks Holm, citing her recent wins over Aldana and Pennington, and notes that Santos hasn't fought since 2021 and had a child. He expects Holm to use her athleticism and cage control to win a decision, though he admits it's a sad prediction.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Holm's clinch strength hasn't decayed and Santos lacks confidence to avoid a Holm fight. He doubts Santos can win unless she proves she can overcome Holm's physicality. He sees it as a fight where Holm's strength and clinch work will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 96 of 157 | 61% | 188 of 263 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 10:03 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 85 of 151 | 56% | 122 of 190 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 1:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 33 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 19 of 22 | 86% | 40 of 45 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 33 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 42 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 43 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketlen Vieira | 96 of 157 | 61% | 26 of 79 | 34 of 40 | 36 of 38 | 76 of 133 | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 85 of 151 | 56% | 49 of 109 | 29 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 49 of 110 | 32 of 37 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketlen Vieira | 6 of 9 | 66% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 19 of 22 | 86% | 3 of 5 | 14 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Ketlen Vieira | 14 of 21 | 66% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 10 of 22 | 45% | 7 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Ketlen Vieira | 18 of 30 | 60% | 4 of 13 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 23 of 37 | 62% | 11 of 25 | 11 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ketlen Vieira | 37 of 68 | 54% | 5 of 33 | 16 of 18 | 16 of 17 | 36 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 23 of 51 | 45% | 19 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Ketlen Vieira | 21 of 29 | 72% | 9 of 16 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holm (-240), Vieira (+195)
Round 1
Jason Herzog will oversee the evening’s bantamweight headliner. After having multiple fights fall through, Holm makes her first appearance since a dominant win over Irene Aldana in October 2020. Vieira, meanwhile, will attempt to add another notable name to her ledger after besting ex-champ Miesha Tate this past November. Holm opens up with an outside leg kick and Vieira answers with a heavy inside leg kick. Holm with a side kick to the knee of her opponent. Vieira closes distance and shoves Holm into the fence. The Jackson-Wink product quickly reverses position. Vieira attempts to execute a throw and then lands a few punches as Holm scrambles up. They remain in the clinch, with Holm in control, pushing Vieira into the fence. Holm with a few short punches to the head. Holm defends a trip and lands a few punches. Holm is controlling the clinch and appears to be the stronger fighter, but there’s not a ton of action in this position. They trade knees and Holm drops for a single leg. Holm gives up on it and continues to grind away against the fence. Holm lands a few knees to the thigh of Vieira, who responds with knees of her own to the midsection. Holm defends another throw and the round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Round 2
Holm begins with an outside leg kick. Vieira just misses the mark on a head kick. The Brazilian moves forward and fires off a straight right. Vieira closes the distance behind a combination, but Holm circles out. Another leg kick for Holm. Holm with a leg kick yet again, and she moves away from Vieira’s counter. Holm punches her way into the clinch and Vieira executes a nice hip toss. Holm immediately slides to the fence and posts an arm before standing. Vieira shoves Holm into the cage, but “The Preacher’s Daughter” turns off the cage and separates. Holm with a standing side kick to the head. Holm gets in on a single leg. Vieira hops on one leg while attacking a guillotine. Holm clings to the leg and atttempts to drag Viera to the mat. She leaves her neck exposed and Vieira briefly has a really tight standing rear-naked choke. Somehow Holm, with her face red and eyes bulging, turns out of it and shoves Vieira into the cage. Holm fires off a hard elbow from the clinch. Another elbow for Holm with time winding down. The round ends with Holm controlling position against the fence.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Vieira
Round 3
Holm goes back to the outside leg kick and Vieira answers with an inside low kick. Holm with a punching flurry, but Vieira counters her. Moments later, a front kick to the face from Vieira appears to catch Holm, who keeps her bearings and turns her foe into the cage. Holm is content to grind away from the clinch, but Vieira breaks free. Holm with an outside leg kick followed by a side kick to the midsection. Holm goes with a high kick, but Vieira blocks it. A right hand from Vieira lands flush, so Holm punches her way into the clinch. Vieira does a good job landing a few knees up the middle with her back to the cage. Holm continues to control head positioning with an underhook while occasionally flurrying with left hands. Holm with more short left hands to the head, and Vieira breaks free and lands a solid right hand. Holm lands a standing side kick but Vieira marches forward and sticks a stiff right nad to the chin. Holm ends the frame with a few knees in close quarters.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 4
Holm moves forward behind a combination, but Vieira answers with a clean right hand. Holm attempts to close the distance, but she’s stung by a right nand from Vieira. A front kick to the face lands for Holm but Vieira eats it without issue. Holm rushes forward but Vieira counters with the more significant punches. Vieira tags Holm with a combination. They briefly clinch and Vieira sticks another right. Holm’s blitzes aren’t effectively, but a standing side kick puts Vieira on her seat and Holm follows with a body kick when she stands. Another Vieira right hand catches Holm coming in. Holm forces the clinch but eats an uppercut in the process. Vieira is able to separate and circle away. A straight right snaps Holm’s head back. It’s another close round, but Vieira counters effectively with a punching combination yet again as Holm wades forward. Holm continues to throw a variety of kicks, but the punching exchanges are going Vieira’s way. Holm with another furious flurry before the bantamweights clinch at the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Holm
Round 5
The combatants hug to start the round. Vieira gets Holm’s attention with a head kick. They clinch, and Vieira breaks with a spinning elbow. Holm with a big left hand into the clinch. Vieira breaks free and Holm attacks with a front kick to the body. Holm forces the clinch again and the fighters stall before they reach the fence. Holm lands a short elbow on the break. Vieira counters a kick with a solid right hand. Holm forces the clinch and shoves Vieira into the cage, where she lands a knee. Vieira separates, but Holm lands a pair of nice front kicks to the face. A glancing head kick also finds the mark for Holm. Vieira counters an onrushing Holm with an uppercut. Holm changes levels and grabs a single leg. She shoves Vieira into the fence with less than 2:00 to go. Holm lets go of the leg but maintains the underhook. A short right hook lands for Holm on the break. Holm with a kick to the body and they clinch again. Holm shoves Vieira back into the fence. On the break, Holm with a flurry of punches. Holm stuffs an ensuing takedown from Vieira, turns her foe into the fence and lands several short punches. Holm drops for a takedown, can't get it and then lands some punches to the thigh before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Holm (48-47 Holm)
The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Holly Holm via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Holly Holm because she can turn the fight into a kickboxing match and has excellent takedown defense. He notes that Vieira's charging forward plays into Holm's counter-striking. He doesn't factor in the layoff because Holm has never been an active fighter. He expects a decision win for Holm and suggests a prop bet on Holm by decision.
Big Brady picks Holly Holm to win by decision, citing her superior striking, cardio, and competition level. He notes Vieira has a grappling advantage but doubts she can out-grapple Holm for five rounds. His only concern is Holm's age (40) and 19-month layoff, but he believes if she looks like she did against Irene Aldana, she should cruise. He sees no path to victory for Vieira unless Holm is old.
Cody believes Holly Holm's striking volume, improved wrestling, and five-round experience will be too much for Ketlen Vieira. He notes Holm's lateral mobility and speed, and that Vieira has been outstruck in most of her UFC fights. He is confident Holm wins but finds the -240 moneyline a bit steep, preferring to bet Holm by decision or late-round finishes.
The host discusses the main event but does not make a clear pick. He mentions Holly Holm's age and questions whether she can still compete at 40, but does not state a preference. He also notes that the fight could go to decision and includes it in a totals parlay (over 4.5 rounds), but does not pick a winner.
Paul likes Holly Holm to win but is hesitant due to the -240 price and Holm's age (40). He notes Holm's striking and improved wrestling, but says he doesn't love the moneyline. He is interested in sprinkling on Holm round 4 (+2500) and round 5 (+3000) if Vieira shows up like she did against Yana Kunitskaya, as Holm could finish her late.
The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm, citing her superior striking, conditioning, and athleticism. He thinks Ketlen Vieira lacks KO power and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Holm will lose the first round but win the next four via decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 154 of 301 | 51% | 187 of 342 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 5:16 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 69 of 185 | 37% | 92 of 210 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 31 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 27 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 37 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 4 | Holly Holm | 0 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Holly Holm | 0 | 48 of 95 | 50% | 53 of 102 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Irene Aldana | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 32 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 154 of 301 | 51% | 81 of 214 | 56 of 68 | 17 of 19 | 140 of 272 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 28 |
| Irene Aldana | 69 of 185 | 37% | 38 of 128 | 12 of 30 | 19 of 27 | 65 of 181 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 21 of 50 | 42% | 8 of 33 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 12 of 31 | 38% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 12 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 23 of 47 | 48% | 10 of 31 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Irene Aldana | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 23 of 51 | 45% | 12 of 38 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 |
| Irene Aldana | 9 of 25 | 36% | 4 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Holly Holm | 39 of 58 | 67% | 14 of 28 | 19 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 37 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Irene Aldana | 18 of 42 | 42% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Holly Holm | 48 of 95 | 50% | 37 of 84 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 47 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Irene Aldana | 18 of 55 | 32% | 13 of 40 | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans towards Irene Aldana to win by decision. He cites Aldana's higher output and youth, while Holm is older and slowing down. He thinks Holm will try to grind against the cage, but when at range, Aldana has the edge. He expects a close, boring fight.
Daniel picks Irene Aldana, citing her upward trajectory, higher output, and power. He notes that Holly Holm is slowing down and relies on stalling against the fence, but Aldana has the tools to win a decision by outworking her. He acknowledges Aldana's past close losses and chinny moments but believes she is the younger, hungrier fighter with more power on the feet.
The host picks Holly Holm to win by decision, emphasizing her veteran experience, strength, and ability to make fights ugly by clinching and using takedowns. He believes Aldana's power is a threat but that Holm's fight IQ and durability will carry her over five rounds.
The Guru picks Irene Aldana, praising her stand-up, pace, and improvement. He argues that Holm's recent wins are unimpressive and that Aldana's loss to Pennington was close. He believes Aldana will work the body and possibly get a second-round TKO, noting her training with Alexa Grasso and her ability to push a high pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 81 of 129 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:16 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 55 of 95 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 32 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 30 of 62 | 48% | 12 of 33 | 9 of 18 | 9 of 11 | 20 of 50 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 38 of 78 | 48% | 9 of 43 | 27 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 46 | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 9 of 17 | 52% | 2 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 19 of 27 | 70% | 3 of 10 | 15 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 15 of 33 | 45% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 14 of 37 | 37% | 5 of 25 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 26 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel picks Raquel Pennington to edge out a close decision. He notes that Pennington is the more active fighter moving forward and that Holm has gone 4-5 since their first fight while Pennington is 5-2. He also mentions that Pennington is younger at 31 vs Holm pushing 40.
The host is confident in Holly Holm, having already placed 2.5 units at -122. He believes Holm won the first fight easily and that her counter-striking, fight IQ, and power left head kick will be too much for Pennington. He argues that Holm is better at getting off the cage and landing damaging shots, while Pennington's forward movement plays into Holm's game. He dismisses concerns about Holm's recent record, noting she lost to elite fighters, and sees Pennington as a step below.
The host picks Raquel Pennington, citing her thickness and ability to take damage, as seen in her performance against Amanda Nunes. He criticizes Holly Holm's damage-taking ability and age (38), suggesting her prime is over. He predicts Pennington wins by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 17 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 17 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Holly Holm | 11 of 14 | 78% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Holly Holm | 11 of 14 | 78% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 0 | 47 of 71 | 66% | 143 of 176 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 10:44 |
| Megan Anderson | 0 | 26 of 58 | 44% | 48 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 35 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 |
| Megan Anderson | 0 | 15 of 31 | 48% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 57 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Megan Anderson | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 0 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 51 of 60 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:32 |
| Megan Anderson | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holly Holm | 47 of 71 | 66% | 27 of 47 | 12 of 14 | 8 of 10 | 19 of 35 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 26 |
| Megan Anderson | 26 of 58 | 44% | 15 of 42 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 48 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Holm | 12 of 17 | 70% | 4 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
| Megan Anderson | 15 of 31 | 48% | 9 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 21 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Holly Holm | 18 of 31 | 58% | 15 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 14 |
| Megan Anderson | 7 of 19 | 36% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Holly Holm | 17 of 23 | 73% | 8 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
| Megan Anderson | 4 of 8 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.
Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.
Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.
Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.
Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.
Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.
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