King Green

King Green

16-12-1
vs
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 10"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - King Green
6.38 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
3.58 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
1.31 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jim Miller
2.92 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.44 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.5 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
48.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
King Green - Fight History
Submission R1 4:20 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 57 of 87 65% 64 of 95 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Jeremy Stephens 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 57 of 87 65% 64 of 95 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Jeremy Stephens 0 5 of 13 38% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 57 of 87 65% 44 of 69 9 of 14 4 of 4 22 of 41 0 of 0 35 of 46
Jeremy Stephens 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 57 of 87 65% 44 of 69 9 of 14 4 of 4 22 of 41 0 of 0 35 of 46
Jeremy Stephens 5 of 13 38% 3 of 10 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens (160: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-340), Stephens (+270)

Round 1
They may have nothing in common, but Green (34-17-1, 1 NC; 15-12-1, 1 NC UFC) and Stephens (29-22, 1 NC; 15-19, 1 NC UFC) are both grizzled, battle-tested veterans—not the type who would be saving Private Ryan, mind you, but gladiators who have faced a veritable who’s who in the sport over the years. Both men celebrate exactly 15 wins inside of the Octagon, and they would very much like one more. Referee Gary Copeland will supervise the proceedings of this catchweight affair, one outside of standard weight classes because Stephens biffed weight by four pounds. He gives up 30% of his purse to Green but no glove touch.
Green’s hands are down the moment the fight begins, and he already is chattering at Stephens trying to encourage him to come in at him. Green points at Stephens after Stephens whiffs. He sneaks in a right hand, and he circles to the side towards Stephens’ power side. Green takes a punch off the forehead and pauses, but it does not take long for him to get going again. Stephens misses by a mile with a haymaker, and Green is comfortable hanging out in boxing range. Stephens kicks his for in the front leg, and Green kicks him in the side and gets clinched. Stephens drills Green with a right hand on the break, and Green signals that it did not land flush. Green stabs a kick to the liver, and he pump-fakes his way in to draw reactions. Green staggers Stephens with a left hand, and he knows it and rifles off three more fists in a hurry. Green winds up with a body kick, but it smashes into Stephens’ groin. Stephens grimaces and Copeland calls time. Stephens looks to work out the pain, and Green immediately goes to apologize. Copeland issues a hard warning to Green, and Stephens is good to go after about 80 seconds. Green again apologizes, and Stephens is good with it as they resume. Stephens stalks Green down, and Green’s hands remain down while he is chirping at him. Green lands a right hand and a kick to the body, and he points at Stephens’ stomach and leaps at him to hit a quick double and put Stephens on his back.
Green starts bombing on Stephens when on top, unleashing a long stream of punches and elbows while sitting on his leg in a quasi-half guard. Green keeps thumping up Stephens with his free left hand, and Stephens doubles up his wrist control on Green’s left arm for a straight armlock or kimura. He twists it to become a kimura to go for a sweep, and Green fights it off and steps into mount to batter Stephens with ground-and-pound.
Green transitions into a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye when Stephens turns, and he rolls to the back to lock it down. Green only has one hook in as he wrenches on the submission, but it is so complete that he does not need the other. Stephens briefly considers going out on his shield but that would be silly. Stephens gives up
, and it is not so much a train that ran him over as it is the Polar Express, with this one-sided shellacking ending with a mean choke. Falling short again, Stephens removes his gloves and may have left him in the center of the Octagon to say farewell to the sport. It is hard to tell with the promotion wholly focused on the triumphant Green.

The Official Result
King Green def. Jeremy Stephens R1 4:20 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green, noting he is the better overall fighter and has shown wrestling in his last fight. He acknowledges concerns about the judges not liking his style and that Jeremy Stephens is always dangerous, but believes Green wins the majority of the time.

"I'm picking Bobby Green here or King Green. He's the better overall fighter."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green, stating he is the better striker and can shoot takedowns if needed. He notes Green's volume and defense, and that Stephens is tough but can be taken down. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds and thinks they are too wide for a 39-year-old. He says he will probably leave the bet alone.

Angelo says he does not like the odds and will probably leave it alone.
"Bobby being a three to one favorite here is a little bit surprising. I'm going to pick him. I think he does win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Big Brady picks King Green, though he admits he can't lay the -325 odds. He notes Green has looked good recently, while Stephens hasn't won in years and looks done. Brady expects Green to outpoint Stephens, mixing in wrestling if needed, and win a decision. He acknowledges Stephens could knock Green out, but considers that a hot take.

"For me it's Green and I think it's Green probably by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Green, citing his superior skills and Stephens' decline. He notes Green's volume and movement, and thinks Stephens is past his prime and not a threat. Cody expects Green to win by decision or submission, but is wary of the minus 400 price.

Green by submission (10 to 1)
"I got Bobby Green. That much is for sure. But yeah, at minus 400, you got Bobby Green is a little bit older."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, agreeing with Zane. He notes Green is slicker on the feet with better footwork, though his reaction times have slowed. Connor points out that Stephens' recent KO losses are to real sluggers, and Green is not that. He expects Green to make Stephens chase and overthrow, and use takedowns to slow him down.

Odds: Green opened -200, now -375; Stephens opened +170, now +310.
"I like it as a matchup. I like Bobby Green getting a chance to shine again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Daniel picks Green, citing his slick striking, speed, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Stephens' knockout power but believes Green is too slick and will avoid getting caught. Daniel expects Green to win via output or submission.

"I'm going Bobby Green to beat Jeremy Stevens."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host passes on this fight. He favors Green but considers the odds too wide (1.30). He notes Green's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and Stephens' power. He mentions the +3.5 fight spread on Stephens as interesting but decides to keep money safe.

No bet. Mentions Stephens +3.5 fight spread as interesting but passes.
"I'm going to be passing on this one because I do think Bobby Green is more likely to win and I don't like Stevens enough in this matchup to take a shot on him at underdog odds."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
King Green

Predicted method: Decision. Green is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (6.38 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to Stephens, who is 38 and has lost four straight. Stephens has power but is hittable (3.14 SApM) and has poor takedown defense (62%). Green's 72% takedown defense should keep the fight standing, where he can outwork Stephens with combinations and movement. Stephens' only path is an early KO, but Green's durability and pace should carry him to a clear decision or late stoppage.

Green by decision +120
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Jacob is confident in King Green, citing that Jeremy Stephens is 1-8 in his last nine fights and hasn't had a knockout since 2018. He believes Green's wrestling and smarter fighting style will be too much, and that Stephens looked clueless on the ground against Mason Jones.

"I like King Green in this fight. People are going to say like, 'Oh, he could get knocked out and stuff.' And yeah, anybody can get knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Lucrative James confidently picks King Green because he sees Jeremy Stephens as a knockout-or-bust fighter who is 1-8 in his last nine MMA fights. He believes Green's boxing and volume will overwhelm Stephens, who lacks the cardio and durability to win a decision. He predicts Green wins by decision, noting Stephens' toughness but inability to keep up with Green's pace.

"I'm definitely taking Bobby Green to get the win. Decision is my prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
King Green

The host picks Green, citing his striking clinic and ability to outbox Stephens. He notes that Stephens lost a boxing match to Chris Avila, which indicates Green should dominate on the feet. He expects Green to win by decision, though he acknowledges Stephens' power and chin. He may look at the decision prop.

Decision prop for Green
"I think Green outstrikes uh Stevens here, wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul picks Green, citing his technical striking and Stephens' lack of recent success. He thinks Green's volume and movement will overwhelm Stephens, who is fighting for a payday. Paul expects Green to win by decision.

"I got Bobby Green winning. Probably by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
King Green

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green, expecting him to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with boxing. He notes Green's recent wins over Daniel Zellhuber and close fight with Fiziev. He thinks Stephens is past his prime and Green will mix in takedowns. He predicts a decision win, though he initially says TKO then corrects to decision.

"I'm going to go with Bobby Bobbert Baratheon Green over Jeremy Stevens by TKO in the second or Nah. Decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green confidently, citing his speed, length, and footwork advantage over the older Stephens. He notes Stephens has lost his kicking and wrestling, and is no longer a knockout artist. Zane believes Green can use reactive takedowns like against Zell Hoover to neutralize Stephens. He sees it as a slow-down version of Green's win over Nasrud Hockbrost.

Odds: Green opened -200, now -375; Stephens opened +170, now +310.
"I like it as a matchup. I like Bobby Green getting a chance to shine again."
KO R2 4:55 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Zellhuber 0 17 of 78 21% 17 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
King Green 1 86 of 134 64% 100 of 148 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Zellhuber 0 11 of 46 23% 11 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
King Green 0 41 of 64 64% 41 of 64 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:04
2 Daniel Zellhuber 0 6 of 32 18% 6 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
King Green 1 45 of 70 64% 59 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Zellhuber 17 of 78 21% 7 of 59 4 of 10 6 of 9 17 of 77 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 86 of 134 64% 39 of 72 21 of 29 26 of 33 71 of 119 5 of 5 10 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Zellhuber 11 of 46 23% 3 of 32 3 of 7 5 of 7 11 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
King Green 41 of 64 64% 10 of 23 15 of 19 16 of 22 36 of 59 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Daniel Zellhuber 6 of 32 18% 4 of 27 1 of 3 1 of 2 6 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 45 of 70 64% 29 of 49 6 of 10 10 of 11 35 of 60 0 of 0 10 of 10
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Daniel Zellhuber
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zellhuber (-500); Green (+375)

Round 1
“Golden Boy” Zellhuber (15-3, 3-3 UFC) has appeared a bit gold-plated as of late with two straight losses on his ledger. He will be 13 years the younger of grizzled veteran Green (33-17-1, 1 NC; 14-12-1, 1 NC UFC), who never shies away from a firefight. Before they bang it out, referee Herb Dean clocks them in and the lightweights do not tap gloves together as Green has his mean mug in full display.
Green, hands down by his side as is his custom, swats away Zellhuber’s reaching lead hand a few times. Green steps back as Zellhuber lunges with an overhand right, and the Mexican stumbles, Green catches him, resets and times a takedown to put the two on the mat. Zellhuber spins around as the two wind back up on their feet, where Green starts chattering at him. Zellhuber backs Green to the fence but walks into a straight left hand, and Green follows with a one-two before Zellhuber can get to him. Zellhuber kicks his lead leg, and Green says, “please sir, may I have another.” We’re paraphrasing, but you get the gist. Green keeps goading Zellhuber on, and Zellhuber sells out for a few swings and ends up getting taken down again. Zellhuber once more turns about to escape the ground game and works back to his feet, and once more Green pounds him in the face with a power jab.
Green’s alternating stances and awkward footwork make Zellhuber struggle, and when he lets off offense, he lands it fairly often. Zellhuber is not sure how to proceed, winging a huge right hand in hopes of knocking Green out with one blow, but he does not land it. Green dings him with two punches and slips the counters, brushing off his shoulder mockingly. Zellhuber swings at him, and Green retreats and laughs at him. Zellhuber keeps giving chase, walking into a barrage of punches from “King” and landing some of his own. Green shakes his head and no-sells anything, signaling that nothing has landed flush on him, and he suddenly spins with a back kick that bangs into the shoulder. Green reaches out and slaps the younger man in the face, and Zellhuber answers by kicking him in the face. Zellhuber rips a left to the body, and Green doubles over and has to regain his poker face. Green gets back into his element, grooving back and forth and jamming Zellhuber up with short punches and a hard low kick. He stands before a motionless Zellhuber until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Green
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Green

Round 2
Zellhuber starts off the round aggressively, and Green’s head movement and footwork protect him from anything overtly harmful. Green shrugs off the big swings and uses Zellhuber’s offense against him, tackling the Mexican to the floor. Zellhuber wraps up his right leg around Green’s neck to set up an extremely rare and fairly new buggy choke, and Dean checks on Green a few times to make sure he’s still fine. Green gives a thumbs-up and briefly frees his neck from the clutch of Zellhuber’s right arm cinched with his right leg—look it up, because it’s not easy to describe setting up—but Zellhuber commits to it again. Green slowly, methodically wriggles his neck out of danger, and he pops back to his feet. Zellhuber hurries back after him, and Green wants to take him back down.
Zellhuber stops the effort this time, so Green pushes out front kicks and slugs his man in the face with a hard right hand. Green laughs off what flies his way and fires back heavy left hands, and he mixes in obnoxious kicks to the front leg that partially hyperextend the lead knee. Zellhuber has a left hand skim the top of Green’s head, and Green shakes his head and keeps doing his thing. Green does not swing for the fences with his strikes, and Zellhuber’s volume is low while he still tries to figure out a way in. Green hits any target that is open, including the temple, where he clubs Zellhuber and wobbles him. Zellhuber stumbles back on baby der legs, but he manages to get his footing while Green largely showboats in front of him.
Green wings two hooks that bounce off the nose that is now leaking, and he nails “Golden Boy” with a flush salvo of fiery fists. Zellhuber goes out and is snapped back online, and he hits the ground and is in a bad way. Green does not let him off the hook and proceeds to violently batter him on the sides of the head. As “King” continues his final bombardment, Dean saves the Mexican fighter from his own toughness and waves the fight off.
As if he knew he was going to do that the whole time, Green walks off, cool as a cucumber, and has words with the closest camera. At the age of 39, “King” Green can still put on performances like that, dropping Zellhuber’s UFC record below .500 with a vintage knockout.

The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Daniel Zellhuber R2 4:55 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Angelo hesitantly picks Daniel Zellhuber despite his recent poor performance against Michael Johnson. He reasons that Zellhuber cannot possibly 'do nothing' two fights in a row, especially in Mexico. He also notes that King Green (Bobby Green) sometimes is not serious enough and may not score well with Mexican judges. He acknowledges the risk but believes Zellhuber's Mexican spirit and Green's showboating could lead to a Zellhuber win.

"I'm going to pick Zel Huber here because literally ... sometimes Bobby Green is not serious enough and he's too busy dancing around and showboating."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber but with strong hesitation, calling him the biggest 'ball dropper' in the UFC after losing as a heavy favorite twice. He notes Zellhuber should win against King Green, who struggled against Lance Gibson Jr., but is wary of another poor performance. He predicts a second-round knockout if Zellhuber shows up.

second round knockout
"So, give me Zel Huber minus 500. ... Zel Huber by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody strongly fades Zellhuber at -500, pointing out his recent losses and lack of finishing ability. He believes Green's pressure and durability will cause problems, and that Zellhuber's jab won't be enough. He recommends betting Green or passing.

"I'm out on that. So, uh, yeah, it's either a dog or pass here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Connor agrees with Zane, but notes that Zellhuber could still lose if he has a slow start and lets Green get comfortable. He points out that Green is crafty and can throw off any fighter with his unorthodox style. However, Connor believes Green's inability to handle fast range strikers and his age make Zellhuber the clear pick.

Green's craftiness; Zellhuber's slow starts; Green's losses to fast strikers
"But I can't pick Bobby green to win any fight anymore."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel picks Daniel Zellhuber, praising his size, reach, sharp hands, and takedown defense. He notes Zellhuber's chin and recovery, and believes he will outrange Prado and avoid ground-and-pound. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter, while Prado is still unproven at this level.

"I'm going Daniel Z Huber here"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host is very confident in Zellhuber, calling him the safest bet on the card. He cites Zellhuber's youth (26 vs 39), massive reach advantage (6 inches), home advantage in Mexico City, and Green's lack of finishing ability. Green is a volume striker who is old and smaller, and will likely be outworked. The host plans to parlay Zellhuber with Moreno.

Parlaying him with Brandon Moreno.
"I think he's the safest bet on the card. I think he wins a very high percentage of the time. ... I'd be amazed if Zel Huba loses this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

James expects Zellhuber to rebound from his loss to Michael Johnson, citing Green's less dangerous boxing style. He believes Zellhuber's kicks, durability, and aggression will overwhelm Green, leading to a finish. James predicts Zellhuber wins inside the distance.

"I got Daniel Zel Huba to win this fight and semi redeem himself... Daniel Zel Huba inside the distance is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The host picks Daniel Zellhuber but is hesitant due to the -500 price and Zellhuber's recent losses. He notes Zellhuber's height and reach advantages and believes he can land the better strikes. However, he warns that Green is an educated striker and that Zellhuber's striking defense is suspect. He prefers the KO prop over the moneyline.

KO prop
"I'm still going to go with the Mexican here to show out in front of a hometown crowd and give me a Huber by knockout, but minus 500 is just way too wide."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul is leaning towards Green at +375, citing Zellhuber's inconsistency and lack of power. He notes Green's forward pressure and durability, and believes the price is too high on Zellhuber. He hasn't bet yet but is close to clicking Green.

"I know I'm a lot closer to click kick uh clicking green plus 375 than considering Zel Huber a safe minus500 parlay piece."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing Bobby Green's struggles against taller opponents and his habit of fighting with his hands down. He notes that Green had trouble with Lance Gibson Jr. and was destroyed by Jalin Turner. He predicts Zellhuber will TKO Green, as Green is open to shots and Zellhuber is a big favorite.

TKO
"I think Zelhuber's going to TKO him. ... I'm going to go with Daniel Zelhuber getting this one done by TKO over a Green pretty confidently."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Zane picks Zellhuber because Bobby Green is clearly past his prime at 39 and has lost his speed and defensive instincts. He notes that Green's style relies on head movement and baiting, which no longer works against younger fighters. Zellhuber has problems with discipline and can lose rounds, but Green's decline is too severe to pick him.

Green's age (39); Green's losses to Pimblett and Turner; Zellhuber's inconsistency; odds too wide
"I have to pick him. Oh yeah. Absolutely. Like I just, I don't think green, like he should not be fighting at this level anymore."
WIN vs Lance Gibson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 65 of 141 46% 74 of 150 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
Lance Gibson 0 30 of 72 41% 35 of 77 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Lance Gibson 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 15 of 37 40% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lance Gibson 0 13 of 25 52% 18 of 30 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:04
3 King Green 0 28 of 53 52% 33 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Lance Gibson 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 65 of 141 46% 25 of 77 24 of 40 16 of 24 56 of 129 1 of 1 8 of 11
Lance Gibson 30 of 72 41% 9 of 39 8 of 14 13 of 19 27 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 22 of 51 43% 8 of 26 5 of 14 9 of 11 21 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lance Gibson 12 of 35 34% 4 of 22 2 of 4 6 of 9 11 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 King Green 15 of 37 40% 5 of 22 6 of 8 4 of 7 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lance Gibson 13 of 25 52% 4 of 11 3 of 6 6 of 8 11 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 King Green 28 of 53 52% 12 of 29 13 of 18 3 of 6 20 of 42 0 of 0 8 of 11
Lance Gibson 5 of 12 41% 1 of 6 3 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lance Gibson Jr. vs. Bobby Green
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-210); Gibson Jr. (+170)

Round 1
In an unexpected catchweight delight, “King” Green (32-17-1, 1 NC; 13-12-1, 1 NC UFC) will sneak in his second fight of 2025 right before the buzzer. He takes this match at a 160-pound catchweight likely due to it being put together about a week ago. Matching up in the cage will be Bellator expat Gibson Jr. (9-1, 0-0 UFC)—for the purposes of this play-by-play, his “junior” name suffix will be omitted—who will be competing for the first time in over a year. It should be noted that Gibson now completes the third father-son duo to both compete in the Octagon, joining Randy and Ryan Couture as well as Gilbert and Elijah Smith. Accompanying the athletes in the Octagon will be referee Mark Smith, who watches on as the two elect not to touch gloves.
Green walks the newcomer down flexing his pectorals, hands down by his hips. Gibson lands first with a thudding calf kick, and Green stares at him like a disappointed father. Gibson fires off kicks at his opponent, and Green showboats and wipes off his shoulder to suggest nothing landed. Green gets off a body kick, and Gibson has another high kick blocked in the nick of time. Green stays evasive and starts motioning like he is dribbling a basketball and otherwise goofing around in the midst of a fist fight. This makes Gibson back off, so Green points at the ground and says, “come here!” Gibson obliges, rushing at him for a possible clinch, but Green slides to the side to stay in striking range. The American jabs the body with his foot, and he stomp kicks at the knee to hyperextend Gibson’s lead leg.
Green’s hands remain as low as they can go, and he connects with a body kick and is well out of range before Gibson can get him back with anything but his own kick to the ribs. Green slips to score a right hand, and Gibson cracks him with a left that stands Green up. Green tries to play it off like he is fine, and Gibson picks up on the tell and charges him. Green shakes it off and starts getting in Gibson’s head again, chattering at him and telling him to come at him. Green walks Gibson around the cage, and Gibson pitches a kick at him that Green catches. Green slips in a short left hand and splits the guard with a front kick, and he has Gibson flustered with his approach. Green ducks down to land a right hand, and Gibson buzzes him behind the ear. Green tells to keep throwing with him, and Gibson looks for knees instead and a possible clinch. Green shakes his head, dodges a few punches and salutes. The strange round ends, and scores could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green

Round 2
Green wades out of his corner fearlessly, hands characteristically by his hips, and he uses head movement and footwork to avoid the early offense coming his direction. He gets in close to force Gibson off-balance from a front kick, and Green’s overhand right knocks Gibson to the floor. Gibson leaps back up and hurls a left hand at him, Green dodges and goes “woo,” and he proceeds to mess with Gibson while tossing one-twos at him. Gibson tosses out a low kick, and Green’s front kick response ricochets off the cup. Smith calls time, and Green starts clapping and saying “we gotta get this thing going” as if to hurry Gibson back to combat. The Canadian keeps ignoring him, so Green apologizes to Gibson’s father for the accidental foul. Smith warns Green to avoid kicking the low body, because it is the second kick he has gotten away with there. Gibson marches back and forth adjusting his cup, and Green is hanging out waiting for the recovery time to elapse and talking to anyone without earshot who bothers listening. The roughly two-minute break concludes with a clap of hands from the two fighters. When they resume, Green aims a side kick to the chest, and he wraps a kick around the guard. Gibson rushes him and throws a high kick to open up a level change, and he puts “King” on the floor and advances to side control in a hurry. Gibson clings with his right arm around the back of Green’s head, until Green scrambles to get back to his feet. Gibson holds him from behind in hopes of a mat return.
Gibson knees him in the chin and stomps at his toes, staying up close in the clinch to not give Green any space. Green nearly grabs the fence a few times, and Gibson drops down for a single. Green recovers his footing and pushes off Gibson’s face, and he mean mugs him while walking him down. A jab from Gibson opens a tiny cut on Green’s right cheek, one he ignores as he lumbers forward pitching long punches at him. Gibson sits down on a strong right hand, and Green partially rolls with it and offers back a body kick while Gibson is strafing to the side. They clash low kicks, and Green scores a left hand and points at his foe. Gibson throws back only to be well out of range, while Green can get to him with a long front kick to the sternum. Green clips his man with two crisp punches, and he looks for a hook third but is caught on the way in with a solid inside low kick that stumbles him. Green gathers his thoughts and puts on his poker face to start bombing Gibson with a barrage of punches. Gibson barely misses a spin right before the bell, and Green wipes his brow in a sign of relief that he did not get tagged with it. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gibson

Round 3
Like the previous rounds, Green is not remotely concerned about what comes his direction, even though Gibson landed flush on him a few times towards the end of the round. Gibson keeps his back to the fence, and Green further drives him back with a push kick to the solar plexus. Green aims a low kick and misses on his other, flashier kicks. Gibson reaches out with his own kick, and Green no-sells it. Green lands a couple more front kicks while Gibson is still processing, and he blocks a high kick and points to his arm as if to tell someone watching—like a judge—that it hit him on the arm. Green’s trash talk starts to get louder, and he starts to get a bit more amped up. Gibson stays on his bike, timing a kick from Green to shoot for a takedown. He takes Green to his seat, but Green pushes off and scampers back up within seconds.
Green goes for a right to the ribs, and he scores another right over the top in rapid succession. Gibson’s offense is limited to single strikes, like a huge right hand that Green barely dodges in time. Green strings together a number of punches ending with a solid left, and he starts to walk Gibson down doing the typical Diaz brother strut. Gibson narrowly avoids a one-two, but a second lands on his nose. He has a kick caught, and Green throws him to the wall and then surprises the Canadian by completing a sudden takedown. Green moves himself to north-south position and starts unleashing heavy right hands to the body, and Gibson is warned repeatedly for hooking his toes in the fence links. Smith has to slap at them a few times, all while Green is hammering “Fearless” with concussive hammerfists. The oddball fight ends with Green letting Gibson have it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green (30-27 Green)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)

The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Lance Gibson Jr. via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Green, citing his experience and superior striking. He notes Gibson's lack of activity and short notice, and expects Green to keep the fight standing and outwork Gibson as he fades in later rounds. He sees a live betting opportunity.

"I'll take King Bobby Green."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul also picks Green, emphasizing the step down in competition for Green. He thinks Gibson's grappling threat is neutralized by Green's takedown defense and that Green's striking will be too much. He recommends waiting for a better price.

"Bobby Green's side for me, too."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Angelo sees Ferreira as more dangerous and durable at this point, with more ways to win. He notes Green is a cleaner striker but Ferreira has power and BJJ. He is surprised Ferreira is almost a 2-to-1 favorite, as the fight feels closer on paper. He picks Ferreira but is not sure what to do with betting, possibly looking at the over 1.5 rounds.

Maybe over 1.5 rounds
"Diego is going to be the pick. He's a little bit older, but he's durable, he's dangerous, and he has more ways to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady picks Diego Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is very worried about King Green's decline, citing the brutal Jalin Turner stoppage, his age (38), and poor recent performances. He notes Green has taken a lot of damage and doesn't look the same. In contrast, Ferreira is older but has less tread on the tires, barely fights, and still performs at a high level. He mentions Ferreira's power, citing knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rębecki, and thinks he can finish Green by any method.

Ferreira by KO, round 1
"Give me FRA here. And I'm going to take FRA to win this fight by first round knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Bobby Green, citing Ferreira's underrated skills and power. He believes Green is prone to getting knocked out, especially in big spots, and that Ferreira can finish him. The Guru notes Ferreira's close split decision with Beneil Dariush and his knockout of Michael Johnson. He predicts Green will have a decent first round but then get caught in the second or third.

Knockout in round two or three; CDF finishes Green
"I'm going with Carlos Diego Fea. ... I think CDF's got Bobby Green and plus Bobby Green, how many more KO losses can we see?"
LOSS vs Maurício Ruffy
KO R1 2:07 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maurício Ruffy 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 4 of 15 26% 1 of 7 1 of 3 2 of 5 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Maurício Ruffy 4 of 9 44% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-470), Green (+360)

Round 1
Two 155-pound strikers will light up the T-Mobile Arena to open up the main card. Green (31-16-1, 1 NC; 13-11-1, 1 NC UFC) has seen better days but is still dangerous even at the age of 38, but he will have to mind his P’s and Q’s against the man 10 years his younger in Ruffy (11-1, 2-0 UFC). Before the frenetic action, referee Chris Tognoni makes sure to keep things official and starts the fight. Ruffy offers a glove, but Green would rather just fight. Green backs himself intentionally to the wall, hands low, ready to counter. Ruffy is composed rather than a marauder, and he blocks a push kick when standing in front of his opponent. Ruffy is keeping Green confused with his rangy punches and movement, and this results in a stalemate and stretches of inactivity. When Green kicks low, Ruffy rings his bell with a straight right hand. Green bounces off the wall and gives a right hand back, but it has far less mustard on it than the one that shook him up. Green surges forward with a left high and a right to the ribs, and chants for “Let’s Go Ruffy” start spreading. The Brazilian absorbs all of this energy from the audience and channels it like a Spirit Bomb, only instead of into his hand, he puts it into his right foot. A picture-perfect spin from Ruffy delivers the wheel kick square into the side of Green’s head, and Green is immediately unconscious and slumps face-first the ground like he got shot by a sniper. Absolutely incredible! Forget “Knockout of the Year,” that wheel kick is up there when it comes to “Knockout of the Decade,” much less one of the best in company history. Unreal. The crowd is electric, no one can hear anyone think. Knowing that there is nothing else he needs to do tonight, Ruffy stands stoically above his fallen opponent, while Tognoni sprints in to make sure Green does not take any more damage. Meanwhile, blood pours out of the nose of the flattened Green, who manages to come to and eventually makes it back to his feet. With plenty of energy left in the tank, Ruffy goes off to perform several flips and capoeira moves, sticking the landing each and every time to further wow the fans. The Fighting Nerds have one more highlight on the reel, and the victorious Ruffy dons his team’s famed glasses and gives commentator Joe Rogan a pair to sport as well. Knowing exactly what he wants next, Ruffy calls for a headlining opportunity against Beneil Dariush. The UFC would be hard pressed to pass that up. Wow. What a knockout. Mauricio Ruffy is for real.

The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Bobby Green R1 2:07 via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Connor picks Ruffy despite acknowledging that stylistically, Green should be able to outbox him. He notes that Green has been getting hurt more often and fighting in a way that leaves him vulnerable to big punchers. Connor believes that even if Green has a good first round, he is likely to get knocked out eventually. He admits the line is too wide and that Ruffy has yet to prove himself against veteran talent.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Connor thinks the line is too wide.
"I think at this point, I have to feel like even a veteran performance out of Bobby Green is going to be him doing really well for a round, a round and a half, whatever, and just getting melted by …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, hoping for a vintage performance. He believes that if Green doesn't get knocked out, he can outwork Ruffy with smarter reads and better cardio. Zane points out that Ruffy struggled against James Llontop, who is slow and clumsy, and that Green is a much more technical boxer. He acknowledges the risk but wants to see Green replicate his win over Nasrat Haqparast.

Odds: Green opened at +405, now +345; Ruffy opened at -654, now -468. Zane thinks the line is too wide.
"I'm picking it openly because I want it to happen. Yes. I think it's actually, it's a, you know, it is actually quite possible that Bobby Green can can look. Okay. If he, if he doesn't get knocked out, I …"
LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett
Technical Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:22 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Paddy Pimblett 0 15 of 21 71% 15 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
King Green 0 8 of 13 61% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Paddy Pimblett 0 15 of 21 71% 15 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
King Green 0 8 of 13 61% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Paddy Pimblett 15 of 21 71% 2 of 6 3 of 5 10 of 10 15 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 8 of 13 61% 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Paddy Pimblett 15 of 21 71% 2 of 6 3 of 5 10 of 10 15 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
King Green 8 of 13 61% 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bobby Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-120), Pimblett (+100)

Round 1
While the last two fights are championship affairs with a Brit defending their throne, fans might be here for the people’s main event that is the “featured fight of the night.” No matter his new first name, for play-by-play purposes this Strikeforce veteran will be called by his surname, Green (32-15-1, 1 NC; 13-10-1, 1 NC UFC). He will try to take all the wind out of the sails of the raucous Manchester crowd, which is going bananas for Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 UFC). Referee Lukasz Bosacki can scarcely hear himself think, but he knows it is time and starts the fight between the beloved lightweights. Even having said earlier this week it is all business, the two choose not to touch gloves before slugging it out. Green’s hands are low as always, and he pokes at the front leg with a kick. Pimblett winds up with a much heavier kick on the inside, and he lands a second with emphasis. Pimblett sticks out a jab and checks a kick, and he sits down on an especially powerful calf kick. Green marches forward and starts talking trash, and Pimblett catches him with a counter as he backs off. Green brushes his shoulder when Pimblett lands on him, and the Brit lands a low kick as well. Green connects with a pair of stomping kicks to the knee, and he reaches a left hand to the midsection. Green kicks the front leg and is tripped up, and he acknowledges the strike and kicks at him. Green points at his adversary as he walks him down, and he tells Pimblett to hit him. Pimblett elects to kick the calf instead, and Green kicks him in the ribs in response. Green keeps jabbing with his front leg, and he shoots for a takedown and falls straight into a guillotine choke attempt. Green slips out of it, and Pimblett adjusts and locks down a triangle choke. Green rolls to the side but is still dangerously caught in the submission, and Pimblett starts celebrating as he leans back. Green struggles and gets rolled to his back, and he wrenches on the arm while crushing on Green’s carotid artery. Life leaves Green’s eyes as the submission deprives him completely of his consciousness, and Bosacki recognizes this and rescues the snoozing Green from further harm. Pimblett immediately lets go and leaps to the top of the cage as the audience explodes to celebrate the stoppage win for their star. He jumps out of the Octagon to high-five UFC chief Hunter Campbell, and the crowd is absolutely deafening. “The Baddy” passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, putting the dangerous Green to sleep and becoming the first fighter to submit Green since 2009.

The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Bobby Green R1 3:22 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo picks King Green (Bobby Green) as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Green's volume and defense are excellent, but he only bets half a unit because Green is fighting in enemy territory, could face a sketchy decision, and if taken down by Pimblett, he may not get back up. Angelo acknowledges Pimblett's grappling control but believes Green's striking will be the difference.

half unit bet on King Green
"I still think Bobby's going to win this fight I think he's going to be the better Striker and I think his takedown defense is going to be good enough"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Cody is confident in King Green, citing his well-rounded skills and veteran savvy. He notes that Paddy Pimblett has looked unimpressive in his UFC fights, often losing rounds before getting finishes, and that his lifestyle and mindset are not conducive to long-term success. Cody believes Green's boxing and takedown defense will be too much, and that Paddy's path to victory is narrow. He predicts Green by decision.

King Green by decision
"Bobby green by decision that seems fairs to me Patty pimin could take a hell of a punch Patty Pimp's not getting submitted I don't think no so Bobby by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel picks King Green, impressed by his performance against Jim Miller where he overwhelmed a durable opponent. He believes Green's wrestling defense will hold up against Pimblett, and that Green's volume and power will be too much. He notes Pimblett gets hit often and Green can exploit that.

"I like Bobby green here I I had kind of written him off and I'd faded him a couple of times times too just if we're being honest but like that Jim Miller fight was really impressive"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

Daniel notes Paddy's early explosiveness but worries about his cardio, citing him pulling guard against Tony Ferguson. He thinks Bobby Green's age (37) and hands-down style could lead to him getting caught early. He leans Paddy but wants underdog odds to bet, expecting a close decision or early finish.

"I'm gonna go Patty here to to squeak one out or to potentially get an early finish"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Jeff picks King Green, citing Green's volume and power. He thinks Pimblett will eventually get caught and knocked out, though he's not sure if it happens this week. He believes Green's wrestling defense is adequate and that Pimblett won't get him down.

"give me King got to go with King here Bobby green he's going to put it on uh piml piml gets hit"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a horrible matchup for Paddy. He highlights Green's takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights) and his advantage on the feet. Paul expects Green to cruise to a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of a bad split decision in the UK. He also mentions the possibility of betting Green by decision at plus money.

King Green by decision
"I think Bobby green should absolutely Cruise here so I'm 100% with you I love Bobby green um I'm prepared for disappointment but yeah him by decision at plus 160."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Paddy Pimblett

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission (rear-naked choke), likely in the first or second round. He believes Pimblett can exploit Bobby Green's tendency to give up his back when defending takedowns. The Guru notes that Green was easily controlled on the ground by Islam Makhachev and that Pimblett has a size and strength advantage. He also thinks Pimblett will use kicks at range and wait for grappling opportunities, rather than brawling. The Guru is influenced by a recent interview with Pimblett, which increased his confidence.

submission, rear-naked choke, round 1-2
"I'm going to go with Patty piml I reckon he's got this one the stars are aligning for this one I reckon and also he went on my channel and I think there's a gift of the guru interview moo …"
WIN vs Jim Miller
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–25, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 1 186 of 319 58% 187 of 320 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 57 of 144 39% 58 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 61 of 115 53% 61 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 King Green 1 82 of 121 67% 83 of 122 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 186 of 319 58% 136 of 245 40 of 56 10 of 18 167 of 295 7 of 8 12 of 16
Jim Miller 57 of 144 39% 29 of 103 10 of 18 18 of 23 55 of 141 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 43 of 83 51% 26 of 57 12 of 19 5 of 7 43 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 17 of 46 36% 9 of 35 2 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 King Green 61 of 115 53% 45 of 88 13 of 19 3 of 8 60 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 20 of 53 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 8 of 10 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 King Green 82 of 121 67% 65 of 100 15 of 18 2 of 3 64 of 99 6 of 6 12 of 16
Jim Miller 20 of 45 44% 11 of 31 5 of 8 4 of 6 18 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.

Odds comment: -200 is absurd for this fight
"I am going to lean Bobby green very very slightly minus 200 is absolutely absurd for this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.

"On paper Bobby green has a style to defeat him so the pick is Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I got to take green to just be able to have a competitive interesting fight, maybe eat a couple of shots that he lunges in and Miller is sitting and waiting on a counter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.

"I'm gonna pick Bobby Green to get it done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.

"Jim Miller versus Bobby Green that's just a feel-good fight Jim Miller for UFC 100 UFC 200 and UFC 300 well is going to fight UFC 300 so I'm excited for that fight as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I think for the most part green will roll with them well enough to take the brunt of it off and then really start to put it on Jim Miller through rounds two and three winning this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.

"I like Bobby green too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.

"Jim Miller is going to destroy the lead leg of Bobby green he's going to hack it to Pieces."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am going to pick Bobby Green because I think Jim Miller is so meat and potato potatoes that he is going to have all the success he's ever going to have in the fight in like the first six …"
LOSS vs Jalin Turner
KO (punches) R1 2:49 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jalin Turner 1 33 of 60 55% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
King Green 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jalin Turner 1 33 of 60 55% 33 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
King Green 0 15 of 26 57% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jalin Turner 33 of 60 55% 26 of 48 2 of 4 5 of 8 18 of 41 0 of 0 15 of 19
King Green 15 of 26 57% 5 of 14 3 of 4 7 of 8 14 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jalin Turner 33 of 60 55% 26 of 48 2 of 4 5 of 8 18 of 41 0 of 0 15 of 19
King Green 15 of 26 57% 5 of 14 3 of 4 7 of 8 14 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner despite short notice, citing his size advantage and danger everywhere. He thinks Turner's reach and height will be a problem for Green, and that Green's hands-down style could get him caught. He expects an early finish but notes cardio concerns if the fight extends. He calls it a step down in competition for Turner.

"give me Jaylen Turner here on short notice to get an early finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody is torn but tentatively picks Turner. He acknowledges Turner's weight cut issues and short notice, but thinks Turner is faster, longer, and the better striker. He worries about Turner's cardio in later rounds but believes if Turner minds his distance, he can win. He considers waiting for weigh-ins and possibly betting Green live after the first round.

considering Bobby Green live after first round
"tentatively I'm going to take Jaylen Turner but I am not disagreeing with any of your points I see them all"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Lucrative James leans towards Bobby Green as a dog, noting that Jalin Turner has never won a decision and has a questionable chin. He believes if Green survives round one, the fight becomes 50-50, with Green having an edge in later rounds. He is not confident but sees value in Green at plus money.

"I don't mind a dog shot on Bobby green"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Green is on a two-fight winning streak and has a volume-heavy style that could overwhelm Turner. Turner has lost two in a row and has had weight issues, plus he took this fight on short notice. Green's durability and pressure should allow him to outwork Turner, especially if the fight goes into deep waters. A decision win is predicted.

decision win predicted
"give me Bobby green here and I think he ends up pulling off a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Paul already bet Bobby Green at plus money. He cites Green's durability, cardio, and the fact that Turner missed weight last time and is on short notice. He thinks Green can go hard three rounds and that Turner's cardio falls off. He also likes Green round three prop at +2000. He notes Green is historically a slow starter but believes he can take over late.

Bobby Green round three at +2000 considered; already bet Green moneyline at +188
"I already bet Bobby green why well Bobby green was already getting ready for this card he's supposed to take on Dan hooker Dan hooker pulls out Jaylen Turner I mean missed weight last time out at 155 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner, citing his reach advantage, versatility, and ability to chop the legs and body. He believes Bobby Green struggles without a reach advantage and that Turner's dynamic striking will be too much. He expects a decision win for Turner, 30-27.

decision win 30-27
"I'm gonna go Jalin Turner... he's more versatile... he'll chop low, he'll front kick the body, he'll kick the head... I'll say it will be a decision win 30-27."
Jim Miller - Fight History
WIN vs Jared Gordon
Submission R1 3:29 · UFC 328 ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-325), Miller (+260)

Round 1
It’s Jim Miller (38-19, 1 NC; 27-18, 1 NC UFC) fight day, the first one of these this year. Coming up on 43 years of age, the New Jersey native still has a ways to go to reach 50 UFC bouts. He can get to 47 tonight once the cage doors close and referee Keith Peterson says go, when he battles Gordon (21-8, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC). This lightweight clash kicks off with no nonsense and no fist bump either.
Miller stalks Gordon down slowly and cautiously, keeping his gloves up to defend a high kick. Miller leaps forward and catches Gordon with a shovel uppercut. Gordon has to take a quick count of his teeth and absorbs a knee from up close. Miller breaks off and takes a body kick. Miller throws a low kick that bangs into Gordon’s cup, and Gordon tries to take him down and abandons it to adjust his groin. Peterson calls time and gives Gordon as much time as he needs to recover. After 80 seconds, Gordon is good to go, and Miller apologizes for the accidental foul. Gordon strikes first with a high kick that harmlessly bangs into the guard, and Miller crowds him behind a pair of hooks. Miller kicks the side again and is driven back with a right hand.
Gordon jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he catches a Miller body kick to shoot for a takedown.
This reckless shot is just traveling down the road to perdition for Gordon, as Miller snatches up a guillotine choke and cinches both legs around the waist, gripping the submission with everything he has. Miller rolls Gordon to the side, squeezing with his self-describes "old man strength." Miller arches his back and has Gordon dead to rights. Gordon surrenders so he does not go out on his shield, and the victorious Miller leaps atop the cage to let loose a roar of victory.
In less than four minutes, the OG Miller has notched his 28th victory in the Octagon, extending his own record. He has now finished 20 opponents as a UFC fighter, one shy of organizational leader Charles Oliveira. In victory, Miller gives it up to his son for beating cancer, declaring that anything he does in combat pales in comparison to what his offspring went through.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon R1 3:29 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, stating his hands are better and his takedown defense should be good enough. He dismisses Gordon's last loss due to being hit by a car. He notes Gordon is a touch younger and faster. However, he thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy and will not bet on it. He acknowledges Jim Miller's home advantage and toughness.

Angelo says he is not spending on the 3-to-1 odds.
"I'm gonna pick Jared Gordon here because I do think his hands are better and I think the takedown defense should be good enough to defend some of these Jim Miller takedowns. But 3 to 1 money is crazy. I'm …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon but is not fully confident. He notes that Jim Miller is tough and experienced, and that the age difference might only be half a second faster. He thinks the fight is competitive and that Jim Miller plus 3.5 is not the worst bet. He mentions that Jim Miller has been finished in all his losses in New Jersey.

over round line lean
"I am picking Jared Gordon here. But the idea that Jim Miller can't hang on the feet seems something that you can dismiss."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, assuming he wasn't hit by a car before this fight. He notes Gordon fights at a high level and should be the minute winner everywhere. Brady expects Gordon to win by decision, though he acknowledges Jim Miller has power and a guillotine. He is rooting for Miller but thinks Gordon gets it done on the scorecards.

"I'm going to take Jared Gordon to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, citing his youth and well-rounded skills. He thinks Gordon's striking and grappling are a step ahead of Miller, who is older and less active. Cody expects Gordon to win by decision.

"I'm picking Jared Gordon. Despite the fact that I want Jim Miller to win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Connor also picks Gordon, focusing on directionality: Gordon has a clear process of pressuring and putting out volume, while Miller never has. Connor notes that Miller has no ability to be the one pressuring and will just accept the fight Gordon wants. He adds that Gordon is a little too fast and put together with his hands for Miller to take him out of his game.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300.
"I think I will because he is going to understand how to kind of tell the story of the fight to dictate in a way that Jim Miller never has been able to."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Daniel picks Gordon, predicting a 29-28 decision where Miller wins the first round but Gordon edges out the last two with top control. He respects Miller's legacy but sees Gordon's youth and grappling as decisive.

"I'm also going Gordon. I'm gonna go 2928 decision. I think Miller wins the first round. Gordon kind of edges out the last two with top control."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Jared Gordon

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Gordon is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (5.64 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to the 41-year-old Miller. Miller's takedown defense (48%) is a liability, and Gordon has solid takedown defense (60%) to keep the fight standing. Gordon's recent KO win over Thiago Moises shows his power, while Miller has been knocked out multiple times. Gordon's pace and pressure should overwhelm Miller, leading to a late stoppage or clear decision.

Gordon by KO/TKO +400
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Jacob picks Jared Gordon but is not betting on him out of respect for Jim Miller, who has been dealing with his son's cancer. He thinks Gordon should win but sees weird paths to victory for Miller. He might play Jim Miller in some capacity on Saturday.

"I got to pick Jared Gordon as a pick because I mean he should just be the better fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The host picks Gordon, citing his pressure, pace, and power striking. He believes Gordon's grappling is good enough to keep Miller from grinding, and that Gordon's durability and cardio will allow him to dictate the fight. He expects a decision win, though he notes Miller's hometown crowd and power could pose a threat.

"I like Gordon here. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

Paul picks Gordon, citing his technical striking and Miller's decline. He notes Miller's age and distractions, and thinks Gordon is simply better everywhere. Paul expects Gordon to win.

"Jared Gordon is just a kind of like one step advance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon but calls him a 'risky pick'. He notes Gordon's inconsistency but believes Jim Miller has lost his pop and recent performances have declined. He thinks Gordon should figure out the 55-year-old Miller and get a finish, though he initially says decision then corrects to finish.

by finish
"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon winning this one by decision. Um, by finish. Sorry."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jared Gordon

Zane picks Gordon, citing his improved boxing and ability to dictate the fight with pressure and volume. He notes that Jim Miller lacks a clear process and is not a strategic thinker, while Gordon has a clear game plan. However, Zane acknowledges Miller's power and finishing ability, making Gordon vulnerable despite being the favorite.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300. Should probably be closer than that.
"I am going to take Jared Gordon."
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 13 of 35 37% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 21 of 44 47% 59 of 94 8 of 14 57% 1 0 10:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 16 62% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 10 of 21 47% 24 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:57
2 Jim Miller 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 11 45% 10 of 19 5 of 8 62% 0 0 4:04
3 Jim Miller 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 6 of 12 50% 25 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 13 of 35 37% 11 of 30 1 of 2 1 of 3 7 of 28 1 of 2 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 21 of 44 47% 13 of 34 7 of 9 1 of 1 18 of 41 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 16 62% 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 10 of 21 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jim Miller 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chase Hooper vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-800), Miller (+550)

Round 1
While it is understandable, it is still unfortunate that announcer Bruce Buffer declined to shout out Miller’s (38-18, 1 NC; 27-17, 1 NC UFC) preferred nickname that was certainly not “A-10.” We get what we get, so “Expletive Deleted” will have to hold serve for now. The grizzled veteran, one whose name is all over the leaderboards including the most fights (soon to be 46) and the most victories (27 for now), will throw down with a man 16 years his junior. In a contest of old man strength vs. youthful exuberance, Hooper (15-3-1, 7-3 UFC) will represent the latter and will close as an astronomical betting favorite north of -800. Things like 41 and -800 are just numbers to Miller, who will meet Hooper in the center of the cage while referee Kerry Hatley watches on. They do not touch gloves. When Miller plods forward, Hooper backs away and uses his kicks to keep his preferred distance. Hooper suddenly attacks with a swarm of punches, and Miller sits in the pocket and fires back at him. Hooper gets the better of an exchange, and he slides back and clips Miller with a solid right hand. Miller is unfazed and cracks his foe with a left hook, and Hooper punches and shoots low for a single. Miller drops to a knee to defend it, and he wraps up a guillotine choke that forces Hooper to stand. Hooper drops to the floor to roll out of it, and Miller lowers himself down and blasts the youngster in the face with a standing-to-ground left hand. Hooper hunts for a triangle choke, and Miller punches his way out of it and reassumes top position in the guard. “A-10” stacks Hooper up to prevent Hooper from going after anything, and Miller latches on with a guillotine and jumps guard to secure it. Hooper calmly works his neck out of harm’s way, and he finds himself in top. Miller turns over and gives up his back, and Hooper is quick to start hunting for a standing rear-naked choke. Miller leans against the cage to take some of the weight off, and he tries to scrape “The Dream” off of him using the chain links. Hooper has the body triangle wrapped around the waist to remain on Miller’s back, and he hacks at Miller with an elbow. Hooper attempts a neck crank, and Miller bucks and twists to get Hooper off of his back. Hooper hits his back and instantly attacks an armbar, and Miller punches his way out of that and a subsequent triangle setup. Miller nails his man with a big left hand, and he pushes out of a quick triangle that materializes out of nowhere. Miller stands up, and Hooper follows him and pushes out a front kick. One more front kick from Hooper results in him getting caught with an overhand right, and the horn sounds to end the dramatic round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 2
Miller starts out the round ready to get in the pocket and exchange, and he scores a solid left hand to back Hooper off. When Hooper presses him, Miller tags him with another left. The youngster chains a front kick into a spinning back fist, and Miller defends against them and allows Hooper to take him down so he can grip hold of a two-on-one wrist lock. Hooper elbows him in the side while Miller clings to the limb, using it to work back to his feet. Hooper takes his back standing and wrenches him to the ground, where he flirts with a rear-naked choke to further control his foe. Miller works his way back to his feet and leans himself on the wire, and Hooper softens him up and is pulled off of Miller’s back, but he sells out for a takedown and lands in side control. After Hooper gets off some strikes, Miller fights to his feet, and he considers a guillotine when Hooper pursues a mat return. Miller lets it go and stands up, and Hooper kicks off the fencing and tosses Miller to his back. Hooper controls Miller from the side and then back, and the two scramble and roll to find themselves in an awkward situation. Hoop looks to lace Miller’s legs and spread them apart for a banana split, and he tugs on Miller’s foot to further hold on tight. Miller survives this and makes it to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 3
Hooper wants to take the fight down to begin the final round, with Miller wearing it after 10 minutes of combat. The control of Hooper starts to take over, as he latches on the elder statesman’s back and wrangles him to the floor. Hooper again pursues a leglock from a strange angle, and Miller’s knee is trapped in a precarious predicament. They remain stuck in a 50-50 of sorts, with a possible twister or other unorthodox submission coming together. Miller on his back, has his legs caught between Hooper’s, and his torso is about to turn the wrong direction until Hooper decides to abandon it and take top position. Hooper clings to the top position like Saran wrap, nullifying Miller and causing the audience to start booing. Hooper resides in half guard, smothering and hanging tight until posturing up with a few elbows to the side. Hooper sits up with seconds to go, and the fight that started with a roar ends with a whimper.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (29-28 Hooper)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)

The Official Result
Chase Hooper def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Chase Hooper

Daniel Levi notes that Chase Hooper handled a legend, securing eight takedowns and doing what he was supposed to do. He suggests moving Hooper up and even proposes a fight against Michael Chandler. He respects Jim Miller as a legend but acknowledges the loss.

"Chase Hooper went out there, handled a legend, you know, eight takedowns. Uh he didn't he didn't get to sub him, but you know, he went out there, did what he was supposed to do."
WIN vs Damon Jackson
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:44 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)

Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.

Angelo bet half a unit on Damon Jackson at -150.
"I threw a half a unit on Damon Jackson at minus5"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.

"I'll take Jim Miller to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.

"I'm actually gonna take Damon Jackson for this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.

"I do not... I don't know. Damon jackson's game is it's just much more chancey than miller's. Yes. It's always been a thing like, you know, Jackson wins all the time. And so it's easy to we but i've talked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.

decision
"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson via decision here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.

Jim Miller wins by decision (+400)
"Jim Miller I like... better number too slightly plus 145"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Damon Jackson

The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'd give Miller the slight advantage in the Striking I do think it will be dictated in the grappling real and that's where Jackson should be able to utilize this SI and strength a little bit more effectively getting those …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.

"I won't be fading Jim Miller but I will be picking his opponent Damon Jackson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.

decision win
"Damon Jackson's GNA half guard Camp Jim Miller it's going to happen... I can so see him getting taken down and held down by Damon Jackson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.

Odds: Miller opened -145, now +154; Jackson opened +114, now -174. Zane says 'you don't want damon jackson any wider than that over anyone'.
"I'm kind of tempted to pick jim miller here. It is his home division. I think he might feel kind of stronger than damon jackson's uh issues, too."
LOSS vs King Green
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–25, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 1 186 of 319 58% 187 of 320 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 57 of 144 39% 58 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 61 of 115 53% 61 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 King Green 1 82 of 121 67% 83 of 122 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 186 of 319 58% 136 of 245 40 of 56 10 of 18 167 of 295 7 of 8 12 of 16
Jim Miller 57 of 144 39% 29 of 103 10 of 18 18 of 23 55 of 141 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 43 of 83 51% 26 of 57 12 of 19 5 of 7 43 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 17 of 46 36% 9 of 35 2 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 King Green 61 of 115 53% 45 of 88 13 of 19 3 of 8 60 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 20 of 53 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 8 of 10 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 King Green 82 of 121 67% 65 of 100 15 of 18 2 of 3 64 of 99 6 of 6 12 of 16
Jim Miller 20 of 45 44% 11 of 31 5 of 8 4 of 6 18 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.

Odds comment: -200 is absurd for this fight
"I am going to lean Bobby green very very slightly minus 200 is absolutely absurd for this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.

"On paper Bobby green has a style to defeat him so the pick is Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I got to take green to just be able to have a competitive interesting fight, maybe eat a couple of shots that he lunges in and Miller is sitting and waiting on a counter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.

"I'm gonna pick Bobby Green to get it done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.

"Jim Miller versus Bobby Green that's just a feel-good fight Jim Miller for UFC 100 UFC 200 and UFC 300 well is going to fight UFC 300 so I'm excited for that fight as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I think for the most part green will roll with them well enough to take the brunt of it off and then really start to put it on Jim Miller through rounds two and three winning this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.

"I like Bobby green too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.

"Jim Miller is going to destroy the lead leg of Bobby green he's going to hack it to Pieces."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am going to pick Bobby Green because I think Jim Miller is so meat and potato potatoes that he is going to have all the success he's ever going to have in the fight in like the first six …"
Submission (face crank) R3 3:25 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 80 of 140 57% 96 of 157 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:55
Gabriel Benítez 0 80 of 182 43% 84 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 32 of 64 50% 33 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Gabriel Benítez 0 32 of 77 41% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Jim Miller 0 28 of 38 73% 42 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Gabriel Benítez 0 22 of 48 45% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jim Miller 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:46
Gabriel Benítez 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 80 of 140 57% 50 of 108 10 of 12 20 of 20 67 of 125 5 of 7 8 of 8
Gabriel Benítez 80 of 182 43% 51 of 145 13 of 21 16 of 16 79 of 181 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 32 of 64 50% 17 of 47 5 of 7 10 of 10 30 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Gabriel Benítez 32 of 77 41% 18 of 56 7 of 14 7 of 7 31 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 28 of 38 73% 19 of 29 4 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 28 3 of 3 7 of 7
Gabriel Benítez 22 of 48 45% 17 of 42 2 of 3 3 of 3 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jim Miller 20 of 38 52% 14 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 5 19 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gabriel Benítez 26 of 57 45% 16 of 47 4 of 4 6 of 6 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Miller (-120), Benitez (+100)

Round 1
It’s Miller (36-17, 1 NC; 25-16, 1 NC UFC) time. The storied veteran takes on Benitez (23-10, 7-6 UFC) and already has his next date on the calendar circled: April 13. Before then, he has to get past the fiery “Moggly,” who should not just serve as a heavy bag. The co-main event will be covered by referee Dan Miragliotta. The lightweights have all the respect in the world for one another, they touch ‘em up before engaging, and there’s a bad moon on the rise. Miller parries a jab and takes a one-two on the chin, and he walks Benitez down. Benitez tries to back him off with a front kick, and he scores a low kick. Miller gives him one back immediately, and he scores three punches up top and a left to the body. Miller scores a low kick, and he aims a right to the body. Miller walks his foe down and unloads with punches, and Benitez is marked up already and defends with a knee. They trade leg kicks, with Miller throwing harder. Miller chops down the lead leg of his opponent, and Benitez drives a one-two down the pipe. Benitez gets off another one-two, and Miller pushes a front kick out of the way to make Benitez slip. Benitez jumps back up, and he swings heavy punches including a left hand that marks up Miller’s right eye. They connect with right hands at the same time, and Miller blitzes forward to back Benitez off. Miller blasts the body with two loud knees, and Benitez escapes on the outside and gets back to striking range. Miller follows him and swings, and he gets clipped with a left hand. Benitez scores a low kick, Miller fires it back and walks through a jab. Miller plods ahead with punches and an inside leg kick, and he gets one off on the other side. Benitez sticks out a few jabs, and Miller crowds him but does not land flush in an exchange. Miller keeps coming forward, getting off a left hand and a knee up the middle. Benitez ties him up, and Miller aims a body shot before the two split up. Benitez goes to the body, and Miller goes up top. Benitez flicks out a few jabs and gets backed off with a hefty low kick, and he reaches Miller with a long left. Miller loads up on a high kick, and Benitez springs into action with several punches and a body kick. Benitez tags his foe with a left hand, and Miller blinks it out and keeps his guard up to defend another one-two that soars at him at high speed. Miller leaps ahead with a right hook, and he gets met on the way in with a left hand and a low kick. Benitez gets off several jabs and a left hook follows the fourth, and Miller is on him with his own combination to end the spirited round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights touch ‘em up to get started, and fists meet faces shortly thereafter. Benitez wades through a few punches and then backs off, but Miller is right on him and nails him with two leg kicks. Benitez connects with a clean left hand to shake Miller up, and he eats a few punches as Miller is right on him. Miller blasts him with a left hand, lands another, drives up a knee and pounds Benitez with another short left. Miller slashes out an elbow, and Benitez is no worse for wear as he backs away. Miller keeps the high pace and whips down low kicks that have welted up the Mexican’s legs. Benitez looks to get his jab going frequently, and the low kicks from Miller make Benitez lift his leg up preemptively to block them. They land powerful punches, and Miller strides forward confidently to nail Benitez with an elbow. Miller changes things up and hits an easy takedown, and Benitez turns to one side in an effort to set up an armbar. Miller sees it coming and shuts it down, and he stacks Benitez up and works the body. Miller continues to strike, and Benitez moves his legs up to set up a high guard to for a potential submission setup. Miller breaks out of it by connecting with two nasty elbows, and Benitez rolls frantically to grab hold of Miller’s arm and lock down an armbar. Miller moves the proper way through it and gets out of danger, and he again holds himself on top of Benitez and hammers him with standing-to-ground punches. As Benitez turns after absorbing a particularly heavy blow, Miller takes his back and secures a body triangle. Benitez hand-fights to prevent any rear-naked choke, and Miller uses one left to break the wrist lock so that he can isolate Benitez’ neck. Benitez survives to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 3
The fighters clap hands together as the last round opens, and they are just as willing to slug it out as ever. They stand in the center of the Octagon and trade leather briefly, and Miller targets the busted lead leg of his foe with a kick. Benitez stands firm and throws punches, and he comes up short with a high kick. Miller punches high and kicks low in response, as his corner cheers the kick as if he were in a muay thai contest. Miller sneaks two left hands around the guard, and Benitez is tough as nails but his nose starts leaking. Miller lands a heavy leg kick, and when Benitez backs him off with a few punches, Miller comes back firing with a kick he turns his hip towards. Benitez walks forward to throw hard, and Miller’s eyes begin to close from swelling. Benitez continues to pepper him with punches and kicks, and Miller staggers him with a straight right hand. Miller wades forward without a care in the world, and Benitez’s volume is starting to frustrate his opponent. Miller connects with another vicious low kick, and he shoots for a double that lands him in half guard easily. Benitez looks to scramble, and he gives his back up.
Miller gets the body lock he was looking for, and he immediately starts pursuing the choke. Benitez turns to his side, but Miller has him locked down and fishing for rear-naked choke grip. Miller cranks down with his forearm on Benitez’ jaw, and he does not even bother to slide it under the chin before he starts squeezing. Knowing that he has no way out, Benitez surrenders to the face crank, and Miller has done it.
He adds to his record with the most victories in UFC history, and hardcore fans around the world are elated at the grizzled veteran getting it done by stoppage once more. Pleasing the crowd and commentator Michael Bisping, Miller proudly declares that he has his sights set on UFC 300 in April, with three names in mind: Paul Felder, Matt Brown and Brock Lesnar.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Gabriel Benitez R3 3:25 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 6, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller but with low confidence due to his age (40). He notes Miller's late-career power and toughness, but acknowledges Gabriel Benítez is a dangerous striker with power. He thinks Miller's wrestling and grit could get the win, but won't bet on a 40-year-old.

"Jim Miller is going to be the pick I do think he wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady likes Jim Miller's recent form, noting he's been active and knocking people out. He questions Benítez's durability and inactivity, as Benítez has been knocked out multiple times and hasn't fought in over a year. Brady predicts Miller will knock out Benítez in the first round, possibly via a club-and-sub.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say Jim Miller knocks this guy out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Cody picks Benítez, citing his solid takedown defense from training with elite wrestlers, his volume striking, and leg kicks that can immobilize Miller. He notes Miller's lack of volume and takedown attempts in recent fights, and believes Benítez can sprawl and keep the fight standing to win by volume.

"I'll take Gabriel bonitz"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Daniel Vreeland leans with Gabriel Benítez, citing his youth and durability. He expects a competitive first round, but if it goes past that, Benítez's kicks and knees will wear down Jim Miller. Vreeland acknowledges Miller's finishing ability but thinks Benítez's chin issues are mitigated by the fact that only heavy hitters have knocked him out.

"I'm gonna lean with the younger Mowgli Bonitz here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 1, 2025 (fight day)

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript. He only covers fights from the card he mentions, and Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benítez is not mentioned.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Gabriel Benítez is a technical striker with a strong kicking game, especially to the body, and trains at AKA. He has a significant layoff but looked impressive in his last win over Charlie Ontiveros. Jim Miller is 40 years old and tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish. Benítez's technical striking advantage should allow him to outwork Miller from distance and potentially hurt him to the body. I expect Benítez to win by decision, but I'm cautious about the layoff and Miller's power. I'd wait for better odds on Benítez, ideally plus 140 or higher.

"I'm going to lean bonitz ever so slightly by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Paul leans towards Benítez as the number climbs, noting that Jim Miller's recent wins are against low-level competition and that Benítez has a speed advantage and kicks very hard. He mentions that if the line moves to +150, he would take a shot on Benítez, but he's not heavily invested.

over 1.5 rounds -140
"I'm going to ever so SL lean towards Gabriel Mowgli Benitez as this number climbs"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, admitting bias but citing Miller's consistency and activity. He notes Gabriel Benítez has been inactive for nearly two years and lost to David Onama. He believes Miller still has fast-twitch muscle and finishing ability, predicting a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in the first round
"I'm going to go with Jim Miller getting this one done by TKO finish in the first round"
WIN vs Jesse Butler
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jesse Butler vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A

Round 1
The widest gap in UFC experience will take place in this ultra-late notice lightweight fight. With the most fights (and wins) in company history, Miller (35-17, 1 NC; 24-16, 1 NC UFC) gladly accepted anyone they threw at him, after losing opponents Ludovit Klein and Jared Gordon. Taking the call this week, Butler (12-4, 0-0 UFC) will be making his UFC debut on the heels of five straight wins, including three in the growing Fury FC organization. In comparison, Miller had already competed 20 times in the UFC by the time Butler made his professional debut. This pairing that may not end in the hands of the judges will be officiated by referee Dan Miragliotta, and the fighters are glad to be competing and display this with a glove touch. Butler leads off with a left hand, and he loads up on a right hand and a body kick. Miller avoids all three, but he walks into a big pair of punches as the newcomer is ready for him. “A-10” flies into action with a right hand and a left, and the second stings his foe.
Miller corks back a bomb of a left hand and detonates it on the chin of the debutant, and Butler collapses like a bird that’s just had its wings clipped. Just to punctuate his performance, Miller clobbers the unconscious fighter with a devastating uppercut before Miragliotta can get between them.
Butler is all the way out, and takes some time to regain his senses from the vicious destruction. Miller declares in his post-fight interview that he has few things left he wants to accomplish in the sport, other than landing a kimura on an opponent, fighting at UFC 300 and facing someone he is “a fan” of in the cage. If Miller keeps fighting like that, it will be up to him when he wants to hang it up, as he very likely earned the fastest finish of his illustrious career while extending his record for the most wins in organizational history (25).

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jesse Butler R1 0:23 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Angelo picks Gordon, noting he looked sharp against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He thinks Gordon's wrestling and volume striking will be too much for an aging Miller. He is concerned about Gordon being knocked out recently but believes Miller has slowed down. He is not betting this fight.

"I think Jared Gordon is is much better striker in this fight and uh I'm pretty confident in him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Jared Gordon very reluctantly. He acknowledges Miller's power and submission threat early, but thinks Gordon will work him over slowly if it goes 15 minutes. Cody notes Gordon's wrestling and striking volume should be enough to outpoint Miller. He admits Miller could knock Gordon out, but he's sticking with Gordon as the right pick despite the risk.

"I'm looking to get the right pick and I think the right pick is Jared Gordon so very reluctantly again I I will stick with them"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller, hedging against Gordon's recent knockout loss. He admits that in a vacuum he would pick Gordon, but is too worried about Gordon's durability after being knocked out cold by Bobby Green a month ago. Connor notes that Miller still has sharp counter-punching and can finish anyone, and that Gordon's new patient style might play into Miller's hands.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss and short notice replacement.
"I'm going to take Jim Miller. I'm going to hedge against Gordon here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Daniel picks Jared Gordon, expecting him to outwork Jim Miller in the later rounds. He notes that Miller is a potent finisher early, but Gordon's volume and cardio should take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges the recent KO loss for Gordon but doesn't put much stock in it, and sees a 29-28 decision either way.

"I'm on Gordon so we finally have our first opposite side"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Jacob picks Gordon, citing his performance against Bobby Green where he landed clean combinations. He thinks Gordon can point-fight and avoid Miller's power. Jacob notes Miller has power but is flat-footed and hittable. He is confident Gordon wins by outworking Miller.

"I believe Jared Gordon can kind of avoid those power shots like he did against Paddy kind of in out Point fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Gordon puts high volume and pressure, mixing striking, clinching, and grappling. Miller fades in later rounds and relies on early success. Gordon will tie him up, maintain pace, and win a decision. The five-week layoff from the no-contest is not a major concern.

"I like Gordon to just go out there and do work do what he did to Leonardo Santos in terms of just putting forward pressure on and just putting output and volume that Jim Miller may not be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller as the value side at +155. He notes Miller has one-punch power and a chin that could catch Gordon, who has been knocked out before. Paul mentions Gordon's recent no-contest due to a headbutt and his history of getting knocked out. He thinks Miller could finish early, but if it goes the distance, Gordon might outwork him. Paul is reluctant but sees value in the underdog.

Jim Miller by knockout prop
"I think plus 155 is the value side 100 what do you think so I'm going to agree with you I think it's the value side I think Jay Miller could absolutely win this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jesse Butler

The MMA Guru picks Jesse Butler (referred to as Jared Gordon, but the fight is Jim Miller vs Jesse Butler; likely a mistake in the transcript, but the pick is for Butler). He notes that Butler was looking good before being KO'd by Bobby Green (which was a headbutt). He believes Butler is simply a better fighter than Jim Miller, who he thinks has lost a step, as seen in his loss to Alexander Hernandez. He predicts Butler by decision, 30-27 or 29-28.

Butler by decision
"I'm going with Jared Gordon although Jared Gordon just got ko'd and it really does worry me... I do still think he's just a better fighter simply a better fighter than Jim Miller"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Zane picks Gordon in a vacuum, believing Gordon's improved boxing and pressure will be too much for the aging Miller. He notes that Miller's striking falls apart when he is forced to consistently go forward or backward, and Gordon's style can exploit that. However, Zane expresses concern about Gordon's recent knockout loss to Bobby Green just a month ago, which could affect his durability.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss (April 22nd) and short turnaround.
"I would pick him in a vacuum based on the styles and the age of Jim Miller."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 67 of 185 36% 68 of 186 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:40
Jim Miller 0 108 of 234 46% 111 of 238 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 24 of 70 34% 24 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 32 of 66 48% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 16 of 50 32% 17 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jim Miller 0 34 of 74 45% 34 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:39
Jim Miller 0 42 of 94 44% 45 of 98 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 67 of 185 36% 32 of 137 16 of 25 19 of 23 64 of 182 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 108 of 234 46% 62 of 169 39 of 50 7 of 15 98 of 223 3 of 3 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 24 of 70 34% 12 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 7 24 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 32 of 66 48% 14 of 43 12 of 15 6 of 8 31 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 16 of 50 32% 9 of 39 3 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 34 of 74 45% 21 of 55 12 of 16 1 of 3 34 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 27 of 65 41% 11 of 45 5 of 8 11 of 12 24 of 62 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 42 of 94 44% 27 of 71 15 of 19 0 of 4 33 of 84 2 of 2 7 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-230), Miller (+195)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with what should be an action-packed 155-pound tilt for as long as it lasts. On a hot streak with three finishes in a row, Miller (35-16, 1 NC; 24-15, 1 NC UFC) is determined to rattle off several more wins and potentially call it quits at UFC 300 next year. Standing in his way is late replacement Hernandez (13-6, 5-5 UFC), who returns to his weight class after an ill-fated trip to featherweight two months ago. Referee Herb Dean watches on as the two men decide not to touch gloves. Instead, Hernandez moves to the center of the cage and looses a head kick, and Miller takes it and fires back with a left hand down the pipe. Miller kicks the lead leg, counters a jab with a left hand and absorbs a calf kick coming back his way. Miller darts forward with a one-two, and Hernandez pushes off to slide a finger in Miller’s right eye. Miller does not acknowledge it, and Dean calls it for him and lets him recover anyway. Miller is good to go after about 15 seconds, and he reintroduces himself with a gnarly leg kick that makes Hernandez pick it up and lift it far back. Miller rushes forward with a few punches, and he rips a head kick that collides with the dome of his foe. Miller rings his bell a few more times with punches, and Hernandez separates and gathers his thoughts. The veteran keeps working on the lead leg, and Hernandez responds in kind. Hernandez catches Miller coming forward with one to the low calf, and Miller stumbles and blitzes with a four-punch salvo that drives Hernandez to the wall. Hernandez keeps his wits about him, circles away and pushes out a front kick that connects with the jaw. They fire off head kicks at the same time, and Miller knocks his foe back with a right hand. Hernandez gets off two punches before Miller can catch him, and he kicks Miller on the way back. A Hernandez jab leads to Miller racing forward with a one-two, and Hernandez slides out of harm’s way and plants the ball of his foot on the chest. Miller swings wildly with hooks, and Hernandez evades them all and continues feeding Miller a steady diet of kicks. Miller snaps the head back with a left hand, and he gives chase as Hernandez backpedals. Miller plods straight forward, throwing haymakers, while Hernandez strafes away. Miller swings a high kick that is barely blocked in time, and Hernandez works the lead leg in response. As Hernandez comes in throwing a punch, Miller attempts to kick the body, but it comes up short and clacks off the cup. Hernandez needs about 20 seconds to gather his wind, and they get back to exchanging. The round ends as Miller’s nose starts to bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights meet in the middle, and the first strike lands in the form of a Miller kick to the thigh. Hernandez backs off to crack Miller with a short left hook, and he scores a high kick that is barely blocked. Miller runs straight forward to attack, and Hernandez snipes him with a left hook again before stopping the takedown. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, and he jabs to the same spot and retreats. Miller gets stung with a right hand over the top, and Miller bounces off the fence and throws back with a vengeance. Miller takes a body kick and a right hand, and Hernandez is starting to bust Miller’s face up and cause some serious swelling. Miller scores a solid left hand but it is one-and-done before Hernandez can move away and counter. Hernandez ignores a low kick to split the guard with a straight right hand, and he rips a standing elbow right on the forehead. Miller goes up high with a kick, and it is easily blocked. Miller scores at the end of a two-punch salvo, but not before absorbing a kick to the ribs. Miller takes one on the chin and fires back, but Hernandez appears the faster fighter and the more elusive of the two. Hernandez splits the guard with a few strikes, beating Miller to the punch and slowing him down. “The Great Ape” blasts the midsection with a knee, and he jabs a few more times before having to block a head kick. Hernandez steps in to elbow and then knee Miller, and Miller can only take them without being able to land back with much. Miller stings his foe with a left hand, and he rushes after him with a few blows but is stunned from an elbow. Hernandez looks for elbows as he backs Miller up to the wall, and Miller wings a right hand that Hernandez practically ignores. Miller backs Hernandez up with a few more strikes, and he blocks a knee up the middle with kicks the liver. Hernandez digs a kick to the body and comfortably lands a jab as he backs off, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
Fists fly immediately to start off the last round, and Miller pushes the pace and knocks Hernandez back a few times. Hernandez strikes back, ripping opening a cut under Miller’s eye. Miller replies with a sweeping low kick, and he kicks the same spot when Hernandez recovers. Miller fights through a few jabs to charge with a barrage of punches, and he rocks Hernandez with a left hand over the top. Hernandez ties him up against the wall, and Miller knees the body and defends against a single-leg takedown. Hernandez goes low, and Miller grabs his neck with a guillotine choke. Hernandez stands up, backs off an elbow Miller on the dome. Miller lands a powerful low kick as he eats a right hand, and he fires a kick to the opposite leg as Hernandez’ balance is shaken up from these kicks. Miller takes a few right hands cleanly and a knee on the belly, but he keeps pushing forward throwing bombs. Miller checks a body kick and cracks Hernandez with a left hand, and Hernandez shakes it off and starts to get his jab going. Miller leads the dance with a few haymakers, and Hernandez is light on his feet with quick, straight punches. Miller blocks kicks on both sides, and he takes a one-two and whiffs on a huge left hand. Hernandez pushes forward and bullies the veteran to the wall, but Miller grits his teeth and throws bombs. Hernandez blocks a kick and sticks out a jab, and he is met with a step-in vertical elbow. Miller reaches with a right hand, and he walks face-first into an elbow. Miller lands, Hernandez responds, and Miller lashes out again. Hernandez plants the ball of his foot on Miller’s chin, but Miller does not flinch. Hernandez gets Miller’s attention in an exchange, and Miller shakes him up. Hernandez throws hands, and Miller kicks low and sweeps Hernandez to the mat. Miller works his way to take the back, and he locks down a rear-naked choke that is tight but on the chin. Miller squeezes with everything he has left, and Hernandez grits it out and survives it to turn Miller around and stand up. “The Great Ape” rains down punches right to the bitter end, and this absolute thriller is now left in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Hernandez but won't bet on him due to lack of trust. He acknowledges Hernandez's talent, speed, power, and wrestling, but notes his inconsistency and 'brain fart' moments. Angelo thinks Jim Miller will finally look old and slow, and Hernandez should win by being faster and stronger. However, he admits he'll be rooting for Miller and keeps his money in his pocket.

"Hernandez is going to be the pick but absolutely under no circumstances am I spending money on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady likes Hernandez to wrestle and grind out a decision, similar to his win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He notes that Miller has been controlled by wrestlers like Joe Solecki and Vince Pichel. He worries about Hernandez's cardio but thinks the path to victory is clear. He also mentions both have knockout power early, but expects a decision.

Hernandez by decision
"I'm still going Hernandez I'm taking Hernandez to kind of grind this one out win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez based on tape and skill, calling him a better athlete who moves better and hits harder. He notes Hernandez is confidence-driven and coming in on short notice, which might help him avoid overthinking. He says Jim Miller is a better fighter but at 39 with Lyme disease, the train will fall off eventually. He acknowledges Hernandez's cardio issues and tendency to fall apart if he doesn't finish early, but thinks the short notice and no weight cut to 145 will benefit him.

Cody says the line is no good and Hernandez is massively untrustworthy. He mentions Miller is always the dog and has been live in similar spots. He says he can't bet Miller but picks Hernandez.
"I just gotta go based on tape and skill and I would say Hernandez is just a better athlete he moves better he hits harder he is a better athletic fighter Jim Miller is a better fighter fighter but you …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller as well, emphasizing that Hernandez's problems are mental and technical, not size-related. Miller is tough, crafty, and a harder hitter than Hernandez's recent opponents. Connor expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, and Miller to take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Jim Miller as well. I'm I feel very confident. He will lose the first round of this fight... But I can't trust Hernandez not to find a way out of this fight if Miller can just hang tough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Jacob is picking Jim Miller, calling it a matchup nightmare for Hernandez. He believes Hernandez looks great early but fades when pressured, and Miller's experience and toughness will take over. Jacob notes Miller's recent wins show power and submissions, and he thinks Hernandez's weight class changes indicate desperation. He expects Miller to outwork Hernandez and possibly finish him.

"I'm taking the experience here in Jim Miller I think he outworks this kid."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez has physical advantages in speed, power, and explosiveness, which should allow him to dictate the fight early. He can grind Miller against the cage or land a quick knockout. However, Miller's durability and cardio could become factors if Hernandez fades. Low confidence pick via decision.

Hernandez wins by decision
"I lean Hernandez... I'm gonna ultimately with very low confidence say that he wins this by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller but is hesitant, acknowledging Hernandez could land a big bomb early. He notes Miller's last three wins are all second-round finishes and that Hernandez tends to fall apart if he doesn't finish early. He says Miller is very live here and is the best underdog on the card. However, he won't bet the moneyline because he thinks the fight has to play out a certain way for Miller to win. He prefers a sprinkle on Miller round two and live betting.

Paul sprinkles Jim Miller round two. He says he's more interested in live betting if Miller survives round one. He mentions Miller was favored against Mata and Eric Gonzalez.
"I'm gonna sprinkle the round two prop for Jim Miller and uh and be more interested in entering uh from a live market perspective because if he's living after round one it is it's Miller time."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, noting that Alexander Hernandez has only one round of fight in him and is taking this fight on short notice after a recent loss where he took heavy damage. He believes Miller's veteran experience and toughness will allow him to survive Hernandez's early onslaught and then take over, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in the second or third round
"I want to take Jim Miller here I'm gonna take Jim Miller they've made him an underdog against Alexander Hernandez who always has one round of fight in him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller because Hernandez has fundamental issues with range and defense, and he overreacts to counter strikes. Miller is a good counter puncher and will find openings. Hernandez may win the first round, but if Miller survives, he can take over. Zane notes that Hernandez's confidence is fragile after moving back to lightweight.

Miller opened +210, now +191; Hernandez opened -250, now -241. Zane says he's surprised Miller is such an underdog and thinks even odds would be more accurate.
"I'll take Jim. Yeah, I'm gonna roll with it, too. I just her name did like it, you know, I said with the Jordan Wright situation. It's just like you see somebody in this kind of career limbo."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:32 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 24 of 36 66% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 21 of 33 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 26 65% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
2 Jim Miller 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 24 of 36 66% 16 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 21 of 33 63% 12 of 20 6 of 8 3 of 5 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 21 of 29 72% 15 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 17 of 26 65% 10 of 16 5 of 6 2 of 4 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.

Cerrone at +200 might be worth a couple dollar long shot
"I think i'm siding with jim miller here but the odds are kind of crazy donald cerrone is a two-to-one underdog and he might be worth a couple dollar sprinkle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.

Miller by first round knockout
"give me uh jim miller to win jim miller to win my first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jim Miller

Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.

"I think Jim Miller gets the pounce on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 30, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.

Dog-or-pass; price is everything; no bet.
"i'm gonna lean with cowboy because of the price man plus 165"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Donald Cerrone

Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.

Cerrone round 3/decision double chance
"i think the line is whack i think this should be closer to it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 29, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.

Cerrone round 3 +1600
"I don't know if I'm gonna get to Cerrone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Donald Cerrone

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.

underdog pick, fight of the night performance
"i'm gonna actually go with donald cerrone here in an underdog pick i think at 170 he shouldn't be that big of an underdog and this is a 50 50."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
King Green

Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.

Odds comment: -200 is absurd for this fight
"I am going to lean Bobby green very very slightly minus 200 is absolutely absurd for this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.

"On paper Bobby green has a style to defeat him so the pick is Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I got to take green to just be able to have a competitive interesting fight, maybe eat a couple of shots that he lunges in and Miller is sitting and waiting on a counter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
King Green

Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.

"I'm gonna pick Bobby Green to get it done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.

"Jim Miller versus Bobby Green that's just a feel-good fight Jim Miller for UFC 100 UFC 200 and UFC 300 well is going to fight UFC 300 so I'm excited for that fight as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I think for the most part green will roll with them well enough to take the brunt of it off and then really start to put it on Jim Miller through rounds two and three winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
King Green

Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.

"I like Bobby green too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.

"Jim Miller is going to destroy the lead leg of Bobby green he's going to hack it to Pieces."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
King Green

Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am going to pick Bobby Green because I think Jim Miller is so meat and potato potatoes that he is going to have all the success he's ever going to have in the fight in like the first six minutes."