UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill Next Fight
Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 80"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jiří Procházka
5.69 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
5.6 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.51 TD Avg
60.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Aleksandar Rakić
4.13 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.86 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.64 TD Avg
21.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Jiří Procházka
Moneyline
Caesars +110
KO/TKO
FanDuel +180
Submission
BetWay +1800
Decision
BetRivers +650
Aleksandar Rakić
Moneyline
BetRivers -104
KO/TKO
BetRivers +290
Submission
FanDuel +1800
Decision
BetRivers +295
Jiří Procházka - Fight History
LOSS vs Carlos Ulberg
KO R1 3:45 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 14 of 20 70% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 1 27 of 42 64% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 14 of 20 70% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Ulberg 1 27 of 42 64% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 14 of 20 70% 6 of 11 1 of 1 7 of 8 14 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 27 of 42 64% 21 of 35 1 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 30 0 of 0 11 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 14 of 20 70% 6 of 11 1 of 1 7 of 8 14 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Ulberg 27 of 42 64% 21 of 35 1 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 30 0 of 0 11 of 12
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiří Procházka, believing he will close the distance and make the fight ugly. He acknowledges Carlos Ulberg's technical striking and range management but doubts his power to knock out Procházka, citing Ulberg's KO victims as low-level. He thinks Procházka wins if he gets in the pocket and notes the odds are interesting.

"Jiří Procházka's going to be the pick. Minus 135, these odds are very, very interesting here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady expects Procházka to be patient in the first round, then turn up the pressure in the second and third rounds, breaking Ulberg similar to how Kennedy Nzechukwu broke him. He notes Procházka's durability and power, but acknowledges his poor striking defense and the risk of being knocked out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Procházka.

second round knockout
"I'm taking Jiří Procházka. He could get knocked out here, Jiří. I always talk about the striking defense... give me Jiří Procházka to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody leans towards Ulberg's technical striking and believes he can intercept Procházka early. He thinks Ulberg's tight style and jab will exploit Procházka's openings, but acknowledges it's a close fight.

"I think I'm edging to more towards Alberg... I just feel like Carlos Berg maybe intercepts him or within the first three rounds and puts him away."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka despite some concerns about his recent tendency to overthink and hesitate early in fights. He notes that Procházka has a clear striking plan and is a devastating finisher, while Ulberg's style relies on speed and clean single shots but lacks maintenance work and pressure. Connor believes Ulberg hasn't proven he can handle this level of pressure and that Procházka will eventually force exchanges and land fight-ending blows. He acknowledges Ulberg's speed and power but thinks Procházka's durability and finishing ability will prevail.

Odds comment: Procházka opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110; Ulberg opened -170, jumped to +105, currently -110. Connor thinks Procházka should be a favorite.
"I got to pick Prashazka here. But, you know, it's a great test for Olberg..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Ulberg because he believes Ulberg's precision striking and counter-fighting style will exploit Jiri's reckless aggression. He notes that Ulberg's jab and calf kicks can keep Jiri at range, and that Jiri's unorthodox style leaves openings for Ulberg's left hook. He also mentions that Ulberg has paid his dues and is ready for the title.

"I like Ulberg here. I think Ulberg's basics are significantly better than Jiri's, but I'm not sure about his cardio. So I think it'll balance out a little bit, but I like Ulberg to walk out of there with a …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel is torn on this fight, acknowledging both fighters have strong cases. He notes that both scenarios start with Ulberg lighting up Procházka, but he ultimately picks the underdog Ulberg to win by knockout, citing his left hook and calf kicks.

"I'm going to pick the underdog Carlos Goldberg to come out here, chop down the calf of the beloved Yuri Prohaska, and eventually find a home for that left hook, get a knockout, and take that belt home to New …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans towards Procházka because of his proven toughness, durability, and kill-or-be-killed style, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Ulberg is the more technical striker, but Procházka's heart and ability to turn up the pressure when losing are major factors. He believes Ulberg may not have the same dog in him and could be overwhelmed by Procházka's relentless pressure.

Thinks fight likely ends inside the distance but odds are unplayable.
"I lean heavily towards Jairzinho here because I don't know if Overeem's got that dog in him, and that's often the difference in big, high-profile title fights such as this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)

James is unsure who will win the fight, leaning towards Jiří Procházka after the line moved, but he doesn't commit to a winner. Instead, he focuses on prop bets, covering both fighters in different rounds.

Carlos Ulberg win in round 1 (+700), round 2 (+900); Jiří Procházka win in round 3 (+1000), round 4 (+1300), round 5 (+1600)
"I was leaning Albazi earlier in the week, he was plus 120. Now at minus 110, I'm leaning Jiří. So that just tells me that I don't know and James, you should probably stay away unless you want to get …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James picks Carlos Ulberg as a slight underdog, reasoning that Ulberg will have his chance to win early and that Procházka has to survive the early storm. He acknowledges Procházka's advantages in experience and cardio but leans Ulberg because of the underdog value and early finishing potential.

Fight to end inside the distance; prop bets on Ulberg by KO in rounds 1-2 and Procházka by KO in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Carlos Allberg. And there's a few reasons. The first reason is because he's an underdog, right? So I feel like this close this fight is close to 50/50, but Carlos is the underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Procházka's pressure and cardio are key in a five-round fight. He can absorb early shots and break opponents in later rounds. Ulberg is a good technical striker but may fade under Procházka's relentless pressure. Procházka's chin has held up against top competition, and Ulberg is not the same level of knockout threat as Pereira. Expect Procházka to finish in rounds 3 or 4.

Procházka wins in rounds 3 or 4
"I think Prohaska gets the finish in rounds three or round four."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul believes Procházka's chaotic style and cardio will allow him to survive early and finish late. He notes Procházka has never gone to decision in the UFC and expects a finish, possibly in later rounds.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Yuri and say that Yuri survives early and probably gets a finish late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka over Carlos Ulberg, despite initially favoring Ulberg. He believes Procházka has improved his striking defense and head movement, and that Ulberg may break if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Procházka's baby is due the day after, and envisions a storybook win. He predicts Procházka will take over from the second half of round two onwards and win by TKO or decision.

"I'm going to go with Jiří Procházka, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane picks Procházka but expresses less faith than Connor, noting that Ulberg's style could flummox Procházka if he is too committed to his own approach. He points out that Procházka looked bad for two rounds against Khalil Rountree before turning it on, and that Ulberg's speed and clean punching could hurt Procházka. However, Zane believes Procházka will eventually go for it and that his finishing ability is the difference. He also notes that light heavyweight is a division where anyone can get knocked out, but Procházka's track record of finishes gives him the edge.

Odds comment: Procházka opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110; Ulberg opened -170, jumped to +105, currently -110.
"I don't have as much faith in the area as I as I once did. I think there's a possibility that Olberg is so committed to his style that Yuri may be a little flummoxed."
KO R3 3:04 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 1 71 of 138 51% 71 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 66 of 158 41% 66 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 12 of 43 27% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 24 of 65 36% 24 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jiří Procházka 1 47 of 71 66% 47 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Khalil Rountree Jr. 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 71 of 138 51% 44 of 100 16 of 25 11 of 13 61 of 127 10 of 11 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 66 of 158 41% 44 of 127 12 of 17 10 of 14 62 of 151 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 12 of 24 50% 7 of 17 1 of 2 4 of 5 12 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 15 of 32 46% 9 of 22 4 of 6 2 of 4 15 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 12 of 43 27% 7 of 34 1 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 24 of 65 36% 10 of 47 7 of 9 7 of 9 24 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jiří Procházka 47 of 71 66% 30 of 49 14 of 19 3 of 3 37 of 60 10 of 11 0 of 0
Khalil Rountree Jr. 27 of 61 44% 25 of 58 1 of 2 1 of 1 23 of 54 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiří Procházka but is not confident, as he thinks the odds are too wide. He believes Procházka's relentless forward pressure and threat of takedowns will be key against Khalil Rountree, who struggles when moving backwards. However, he notes Procházka gets hit a lot and has been knocked out twice recently, while Rountree has power and durability. He calls it a very close fight.

"I'm going to pick Yuri here because I think that relentless crazy person forward pressure is going to be tricky for Khalil who does not fight as well backing up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady acknowledges Procházka's poor striking defense but believes he is built differently and will break Rountree as the fight goes on. He notes that Procházka often switches to an aggressive style in the second round, as seen in the Rakic fight. He predicts Procházka wins by second-round knockout.

Jiří Procházka by second round knockout.
"I like Yuri Bhashka to win this fight. I think he's going to break Khalil as the fight goes on. I'm going to take Gary Bhashka by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, emphasizing that Rountree's technical improvements have not overcome his mental fragility. He notes that Procházka's relentless pressure and willingness to exchange will force Rountree into defensive mode, and that Procházka's athleticism and relaxed style give him an edge. Connor also acknowledges the possibility of Rountree landing a knockout or leg kicks, but believes Procházka's overall dynamics favor him.

"I got to just go with Proshaska here in terms of the general overall dynamics."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The host expects a violent matchup, but Rountree's improvements will help him find Procházka's chin and his power will put Procházka away by knockout.

"I believe this will be a very violent matchup, but the improvements in Rountree's game, I think, will help him find the chin of Procházka. And I think Rountree has the type of power to put Procházka away."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka, believing his chaos and durability will overwhelm Khalil Rountree. He notes Rountree's lack of one-punch KO power and tendency to fade under pressure. He predicts a third-round TKO.

third-round TKO
"I'm going to say that Jiri Prochazka gets a third round TKO win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane picks Procházka because he believes Rountree's mentality is his biggest weakness, as seen in the Jamal Hill fight where Rountree fought with fear despite having a technical advantage. Zane argues that Procházka's fearless, chaotic pressure will overwhelm Rountree, who tends to tense up and fight with a panic response. He also notes that Procházka is a better athlete, faster, and more dynamic, and that Rountree's leg kicks could be a threat but are unlikely to stop Procházka's forward pressure.

"I think that's just going to make him terrified of fighting Yuri Prashaska. Just terrified."
WIN vs Jamahal Hill
TKO (punches) R3 3:01 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 2 97 of 165 58% 101 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Jamahal Hill 0 81 of 177 45% 84 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 1 32 of 58 55% 32 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Jamahal Hill 0 23 of 64 35% 25 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 22 of 49 44% 22 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamahal Hill 0 38 of 74 51% 38 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jiří Procházka 1 43 of 58 74% 47 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Jamahal Hill 0 20 of 39 51% 21 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 97 of 165 58% 73 of 132 19 of 23 5 of 10 71 of 129 10 of 13 16 of 23
Jamahal Hill 81 of 177 45% 55 of 145 24 of 29 2 of 3 68 of 158 13 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 32 of 58 55% 27 of 51 3 of 4 2 of 3 28 of 51 4 of 6 0 of 1
Jamahal Hill 23 of 64 35% 17 of 56 5 of 6 1 of 2 21 of 59 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 22 of 49 44% 12 of 33 9 of 12 1 of 4 22 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamahal Hill 38 of 74 51% 25 of 59 12 of 14 1 of 1 34 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Jiří Procházka 43 of 58 74% 34 of 48 7 of 7 2 of 3 21 of 29 6 of 7 16 of 22
Jamahal Hill 20 of 39 51% 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo flips his pick to Jiří Procházka after initially favoring Jamal Hill. He cites Hill's poor weight management (claiming to be 240 lbs), delusion about his loss to Pereira, and lack of recent training. He believes Procházka's relentless pressure, durability, and never-quit attitude will overwhelm Hill, who has been inactive and may not be in proper fight shape.

"I think Yuri pahaska wins I've completely 180 flipped here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Cody picks Jamahal Hill, viewing him as a value play. He criticizes Procházka's defensive liabilities, wild style, and lack of a fallback grappling game. Cody notes that Procházka has been knocked out multiple times and relies on landing a big shot. In contrast, Hill is a volume striker with a good jab and right hand, and his only bad performance was on short notice against Pereira. Cody believes Hill's striking volume and durability will be key, and that Procházka's style plays into Hill's hands.

Mentions that this is a 205-pound striking match and buyer beware, but no specific prop.
"I like Jamal Hill I think this is definitely a value play this week minus 130 around that range"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka, citing his sustained pressure and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Procházka's messy but systematic style is more reliable than Hill's self-taught, technically flawed approach. Connor points out that Hill's footwork is terrible, with crossed feet and a narrow stance, making him vulnerable to pressure. He believes that if Hill doesn't knock Procházka out early, Procházka's pressure will break him down. Connor also mentions that Procházka's recent loss to Pereira might affect his confidence, but his win over Rakic shows he still has the same grit.

Odds: Hill opened +122, now -125; Procházka opened -136, now +112. Connor thinks Procházka should be the favorite.
"Yuri is gonna win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Daniel picks Hill, citing his volume as the best in light heavyweight history. He notes that Hill's durability and accuracy should be the difference, and that Procházka's defense is a concern. Daniel mentions that he took Hill at +100 earlier and believes the line should be closer to -150. He acknowledges both fighters have knockout power but thinks Hill can outclass Procházka.

Daniel took Hill at +100 earlier and says the line should be closer to -150. He mentions that both fighters have knockout power but Hill's volume is key.
"I actually took Hill here at plus 100 um I thought that you know if I'm the book Nick I'm charging you chalk on both sides"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Lucrative James picks Jamahal Hill via knockout, emphasizing Hill's power, volume, and ability to hurt opponents. He notes that Procházka gets hit frequently and has been dropped in many fights, while Hill has shown durability and heart, even with a broken arm against Paul Craig. James believes Hill's clean striking and cardio are on par with Procházka's, making it difficult for Procházka to break him late. He acknowledges recency bias from Hill's knockout loss to Alex Pereira but still favors Hill's striking accuracy and power.

"my prediction is Jamal Hill via knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans with the power striking and pressure of Procházka. If his durability holds up, he should be able to pressure Hill, walk through his offense, land big shots, break him, and finish him within 10 minutes.

finishes within 10 minutes
"I am going to have to lean with the power striking and pressure of prasa here if his durability holds up similar to what I said about darush in the previous fight he should be able to pressure Hill walk …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jamahal Hill

Paul leans Hill but is less confident than Cody. He prefers the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a parlay piece, expecting a knockout. Paul notes that Procházka is a wild striker who gets hit a lot, and Hill has good durability. However, he points out Hill's takedown defense issues (Thiago Santos fight) as a potential path for Procházka. Paul thinks someone's head will get knocked off, and he leans Hill based on volume and chin.

Fight doesn't go to decision at -270 as a parlay piece. Also mentions under 1.5 rounds at +130 as a possibility.
"my preferred way like as a parlay piece is like taking like the minus 270 fight doesn't go to decision and uh and using that as a parlay piece this week"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Procházka. He emphasizes that Procházka's pressure and ability to force chaotic fights will be too much for Hill. Zane notes that Hill's technical flaws, especially his footwork and tendency to trade shots, play into Procházka's strengths. He also points out that Hill's path to the title was against aging fighters, while Procházka has faced tougher competition. Zane acknowledges the risk of Hill's power but believes Procházka's durability and pressure will win out.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"You got to take your knee here. Yuri beats Jamal Hill."
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
TKO (head kick and punches) R2 0:13 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 2 38 of 50 76% 49 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jiří Procházka 0 7 of 25 28% 7 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 1 27 of 37 72% 38 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jiří Procházka 0 7 of 25 28% 7 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
2 Alex Pereira 1 11 of 13 84% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jiří Procházka 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 38 of 50 76% 21 of 32 8 of 9 9 of 9 21 of 31 7 of 7 10 of 12
Jiří Procházka 7 of 25 28% 4 of 20 2 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 27 of 37 72% 10 of 19 8 of 9 9 of 9 20 of 30 7 of 7 0 of 0
Jiří Procházka 7 of 25 28% 4 of 20 2 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 11 of 13 84% 11 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 12
Jiří Procházka 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody picks Pereira to win again, citing his cleaner striking and the leg kick issue that Procházka couldn't solve in the first fight. He notes that Procházka's karate stance leaves his lead leg exposed, and Pereira's heavy leg kicks will be a problem. Cody also mentions that Pereira has improved his takedown defense since the first fight, and that Procházka's tendency to brawl plays into Pereira's hands. He acknowledges that Procházka is a madman who never stops coming, but believes Pereira's refined skills will prevail.

"Pereira for me... it's getting closer to a pick 'em because it's just going to be a straight-up fire fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira, stating that Procházka's best path is creating chaos, but Pereira has the ability to navigate chaos and not engage with it while still taking advantage. He notes that Pereira is a more controlled and technical striker than Procházka, and he took care of him in the first fight. Vreeland believes Pereira will be almost impossible to beat unless someone comes with a heavy wrestling plan or is a striking savant like Izzy.

"I think Yuri prashka is probably worse nightmare as Alex paa... he has the ability to navigate the chaos and make it not chaotic for him himself... I think he's going to continue to beat guys."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel views the fight as a 50/50 coin flip, but likes the plus money on Procházka. He believes Procházka can create his 'perfect storm' and return the favor after being stopped early in the first fight. He notes that Procházka was not truly out and that the rematch is justified. He expects someone to hit the deck and hopes Procházka can avoid accumulated damage and the left hook.

"I took Yuri here plus 125... I'm going with Yuri because I think it should be minus 110 a piece... you give me a plus 125 I'm gonna go Yuri here."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira, stating he usually takes the winner of the first fight in a rematch. He notes that both fighters are dangerous on the feet, but Pereira is a more controlled version of Procházka and way more technical. Fox believes Pereira can keep himself safer while still being dangerous, and he expects Pereira to do the same as the first fight.

"Give me Bea in this one... I usually almost always take the winner of the first to win the rematch... P just a more controll version of prashka definitely way more technical."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The host acknowledges this is a very close fight, calling it a coin flip. He gives a slight edge to Pereira because he is the technically better striker, citing the calf kick and check left hook. However, he notes Procházka is just as capable of knocking Pereira out and that the underdog line at +130 is tempting. He ultimately leans Pereira by knockout but says he will likely not bet the fight, possibly taking the under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds considered
"I ever so slightly lean with the fighter that is technically the better Striker and that's P that calf kick that check left hook... I'm going to take Pera Pera win by knockout and retain his title once again."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, emphasizing that he already beat Procházka once and is the cleaner striker. He notes that Procházka's leg kicks were a major issue in the first fight and that Pereira's left hook is deadly. Paul also points out that Procházka's takedown in the first fight was a result of Pereira grabbing a guillotine, a mistake he likely won't repeat. He expects a wild brawl but believes Pereira will finish Procházka again, possibly by knockout.

"I'm picking Pereira but there's no doubt about it that it's not going to come easy."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The Guru picks Jiří Procházka to defeat Alex Pereira in the rematch. He notes that in the first fight, Pereira had little success outside of low kicks, and Procházka was coming off a long layoff and shoulder injury. He believes Procházka's active fighting style and recent war with Rakic will benefit him, while Pereira's last fight was an easy win over Jamahal Hill. He predicts Procházka will pressure Pereira and finish him by TKO in round three.

TKO in round three
"I'm gonna go with Yuri praska over Alex Pereira... I think he tko's Alex Pereira in round three"
TKO (punches) R2 3:17 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 69 of 118 58% 69 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Aleksandar Rakić 0 58 of 109 53% 58 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aleksandar Rakić 0 36 of 69 52% 36 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 53 of 80 66% 53 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Aleksandar Rakić 0 22 of 40 55% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 69 of 118 58% 56 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 8 45 of 87 7 of 7 17 of 24
Aleksandar Rakić 58 of 109 53% 34 of 77 1 of 2 23 of 30 56 of 107 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 16 of 38 42% 10 of 29 2 of 5 4 of 4 15 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 36 of 69 52% 19 of 45 0 of 1 17 of 23 35 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 53 of 80 66% 46 of 72 3 of 4 4 of 4 30 of 50 6 of 6 17 of 24
Aleksandar Rakić 22 of 40 55% 15 of 32 1 of 1 6 of 7 21 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rakic (-120), Prochazka (+100)

Round 1
In any other UFC event, this sure-fire light heavyweight collision would draw main card status or potentially serve as the headliner. Due to just how stacked UFC 300 is—along with the decision to throw a 5-0 hot prospect above this bout—it will instead serve as the final prelim. Former champ Prochazka (29-4-1, 3-1 UFC) gets back in the saddle in a classic matchup of Czech Republic vs. Austria when he faces Rakic (14-3, 6-2 UFC). High finish rates for both men mean that referee Herb Dean will likely be involved before time expires, while the judges might be able to sit back and just enjoy the carnage waiting to unfold. Ever the sportsmen, they try to bump fists and miss, before all hell breaks loose. They both reach long strikes at one another, with Rakic landing a few jabs and low kicks. Prochazka darts in with an uppercut, and Rakic tries to keep him backed off with jabs and right hands. Rakic comes up short with a heavy right, and Prochazka nods to Dean that he is fine after finger scraped his eye. Prochazka dances around with his hands down, absorbing a right hand and several more low kicks. Prochazka scores one punch, and Rakic stands him up with two punches and dings him with a calf kick. Welting has already began to develop just 90 seconds in on Prochazka’s lead leg, and he pays it no mind and switches stances back and forth to attack. Rakic times a stance switch to chop down the calf, and Prochazka shrugs them off as he powers forward. Rakic hammers the lead leg with a kick, and Prochazka’s balance nearly gives way. Rakic scores a left hand when Prochazka recklessly attacks to open up a cut on the corner of the eye, as Prochazka struggles to put weight on his lead leg. Rakic does not slow his methodical breakdown with his leg kick, and he shifts out of the way when Prochazka advances. Prochazka eats two more low kicks, and he tries to give two more back. When he throws out a body kick, Rakic beans him with a right hand over the top. Rakic opens up with an overhand right, getting the former champ’s attention but not making him back away one moment. Prochazka crashes forward and misses, and Rakic slides to the side. Rakic slips in a right hand, and Prochazka dips and ducks forward to plant a front kick on the abdomen and a right hand up top. Prochazka drives a knee to the jaw, and Rakic unloads with a counter right. Prochazka powers through with a huge right hand, hurting “Rocket,” but Rakic stings him back before Prochazka can pour it on. Rakic lines up a one-two down the pipe, and Prochazka walks through it and clinches up until they reach the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 2
The light heavyweights bump fists, and Rakic immediately picks up where he left off by chewing up the former champ’s lead leg. The kicks force a stance switch, and Prochazka absorbs the kicks on both sides to fluster him. Rakic connects with right hands after jab, and he stands Prochazka up with a right hand. Prochazka fights through it and launches a head kick that bounces off the raised guard, and he takes a calf kick that disrupts him again. Prochazka kicks up high again, and he grazes the top of the head and follows it with power punches. Prochazka connects with his heavy strikes, and Rakic scampers away to reset and launch his own head kick that lands under Prochazka’s arm. Prochazka measures and blasts Rakic in the face with his shin, and the two strikes proceed to bang it out with no regard for their defenses. Prochazka unloads with another head kick, and he slugs it out until he gets two punches through. Rakic stumbles from one side of the cage to the other, and Prochazka knees him hard in the head. Rakic fires back with everything he has, and Prochazka bites down on his mouthpiece and batters Rakic with anything he has to strike with.
Prochazka pushes Rakic over and clobbers him with elbows, and Rakic turns over to his stomach and turtles up. “BJP” unleashes a fury of punches, and Dean watches closely until Rakic is stuck and just taking unnecessary damage at that point.
Dean calls a halt to the fight, capping off a furious comeback from the former champion. The two immediately squash any beef they carried into their meeting, and they hug it out.

The Official Result
Jiri Prochazka def. Aleksandar Rakic R2 3:17 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiri Prochazka as the underdog, citing his relentless pressure and chaos. He notes Rakic is the more technical striker but has been out for two years and doesn't like brawls. He likes the +110 odds as juicy but may not bet due to conservatism.

Odds comment: +110 is juicy
"plus 110 Jerry is the underdog those odds seem juicy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is confused why Rakić is a slight favorite. He lists many red flags for Rakić: a near 2-year layoff, coming off a leg injury, low volume, and unimpressive performances even before the injury. In contrast, Procházka is a former champion with dynamic striking, power, and a samurai mentality. Cody notes Procházka has a fifth-round submission win over Glover Teixeira and can wrestle if needed. He believes Procházka's pressure and power will overwhelm Rakić, who tends to avoid fighting. Cody picks Procházka as the underdog.

"I'm actually confused on this one I don't know why it's even money... got to go with yri."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka because his willingness to create chaos and take risks is valuable at light heavyweight. He contrasts Procházka's creative, reckless style with Rakić's neurotically technical, restrained approach. Connor argues that Procházka's ability to scramble and make fights uncontrollable will overcome Rakić's grinding, as Rakić has not faced someone with Procházka's level of unpredictability.

Odds: Procházka opened -100, now -103; Rakić opened -128, now -107. Connor notes the odds are dead even.
"I am going to pick Jiri Prashaska because I think despite the immense risk inherent to his game, that is a very valuable thing to have in MMA in general at light heavyweight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Vreeland picks Jiří Procházka as a slight underdog, citing his chaotic, unpredictable style and ability to force opponents into brawls. He acknowledges Rakić's athleticism and leg kicks but believes Procházka's offensive juggernaut approach and durability will lead to a finish. Vreeland notes that Procházka has been knocked out but expects him to make it wild and catch Rakić.

"I'm gonna go with the former champ Jiří Procházka"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says he is excited to see how Jiří Procházka bounces back from his loss. He does not provide a prediction.

"Jiří versus Rakić I'm excited to see how Jiří bounces back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Rakić will drag the fight to the ground where he can have success from top position. Procházka has struggled with opponents on top. Rakić will chain wrestling attempts and keep Procházka on his back, grinding out a decision win.

decision
"I think we'll see rage utilize that wrestling chain those wrestling attempts and then eventually keep rasa muzzled on his back and grind this fight out over 15 minutes winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Procházka. He notes that if it turns into an absolute fight, Procházka's pace and volume will be too much for Rakić, as seen in Procházka's fight with Dominick Reyes where he landed 77 significant strikes before a early third-round finish. Paul acknowledges both fighters have red flags (layoffs, injuries), but Rakić has been on the shelf longer and has bigger question marks. He emphasizes Procházka's samurai mentality and believes he will bring the fight to Rakić.

"I'm with I'm on Yuri as well... if it turns into an absolute fight you want Yuri."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić to defeat Jiří Procházka by targeting his lead leg with low kicks. He notes Procházka's weakness against leg kicks and that Rakić is comfortable backpedaling. He also mentions Rakić may mix in takedowns and predicts a finish or decision.

"Alexander rakic is going to chew up that lead leg of Yuri prasa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Zane picks Rakić despite hating his fighting style. He believes Rakić will land leg kicks, take Procházka down, and grind out a win over three rounds. He notes Procházka's wildness could turn the fight, but Rakić's durability and grinding approach should prevail. Zane is hedging because he wants Procházka to win but feels Rakić is the safer bet.

Odds: Rakić opened -128, now -107; Procházka opened -100, now -103. Zane mentions the fight is dead even in odds.
"My feel bad vibe is that I'm going to take Alexander Rocketch. I think he's going to land a lot of leg kicks. I think Proshaska is going to start lunging in and getting really aggressive. And Rocketch is going …"
LOSS vs Alex Pereira
TKO (elbows) R2 4:08 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Pereira 0 30 of 53 56% 44 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:45
Jiří Procházka 1 38 of 61 62% 49 of 72 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Pereira 0 11 of 19 57% 23 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:17
Jiří Procházka 0 11 of 20 55% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Alex Pereira 0 19 of 34 55% 21 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Jiří Procházka 1 27 of 41 65% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Pereira 30 of 53 56% 18 of 37 7 of 10 5 of 6 26 of 49 2 of 2 2 of 2
Jiří Procházka 38 of 61 62% 21 of 38 5 of 8 12 of 15 22 of 43 4 of 4 12 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Pereira 11 of 19 57% 6 of 13 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2
Jiří Procházka 11 of 20 55% 4 of 9 1 of 3 6 of 8 8 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Alex Pereira 19 of 34 55% 12 of 24 5 of 7 2 of 3 18 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jiří Procházka 27 of 41 65% 17 of 29 4 of 5 6 of 7 14 of 26 1 of 1 12 of 14
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-155), Prochazka (+130)

Round 1
Stepping in to save the day once more—these two men also headlined UFC 300 when everything was up in the air—the shoe is now on the other foot. While Prochazka (30-4-1, 4-1 UFC) was the champion nearly eight months ago, Pereira (10-2, 7-1 UFC) wrested it from him viciously with a right hook, a number of elbows and a helpful stoppage from typically excellent referee Marc Goddard. This time, Pereira is the second of the two announced, and violence is once more a virtual guarantee. Having performed 34 knockouts in their 40 combined victories, another one could be right around the corner. The staredown before the fight begins is just as sensational as the first time they fought if not better, as they do not break gaze from one another for a second. Referee Herb Dean will take charge in the main attraction, and he brings the intense power hitters together so they can touch gloves before the cage door seals behind them. It’s on with the chaos. Both men flirt with taking the middle of the cage first, but it is Pereira who ultimately claims it initially as he pitches out a low kick. A front kick from “Poatan” pushes into the belly, and Prochazka switches stances back and forth. Pereira connects with a heavy low kick, and Prochazka rushes at him and is jabbed away. Prochazka goes after his own leg kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one despite the stance switch. Pereira prods out with another push kick, and Prochazka tries to reach with a left hand and he absorbs one coming back. Pereira intercepts him with a dagger of a jab, and he is able to easily block a high kick. Prochazka races at him launching punches, and he gets countered and nods at the Brazilian. Pereira drives home a blistering leg kick, and Prochazka jabs the body and absorbs another kick on the other side. Pereira whips a kick to the ribs, and Prochazka does not answer. Instead, “BJP” bounces down a few times, as if to fake a level change, but Pereira is not buying it. Prochazka closes the distance and ends up tying the champion up, and Pereira answers him with a stern knee to the midsection. Prochazka looks to trip Pereira up, isolating the left leg of his foe, but the Brazilian’s defense is currently ironclad. They trade knees until Pereira tosses him aside, and he looses a head kick that brushes Prochazka’s shoulder. Pereira connects with a right hook, and he easily parries a high kick that swats his way. Power is completely in the favor of the champion so far, and Prochazka rushes at the champion right before the bell and is sat down by blazing left hook. When Prochazka hits his back, the round ends, and he wobbles back to his corner as it was not a stoppage.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Pereira

Round 2
The second round begins with Pereira marching out of his corner, a man on a mission. “Poatan” unleashes a hellacious high kick that smashes into Prochazka’s dome and sets him crashing to the canvas. Dean rushes in but pulls back before intervening, and Prochazka sits up and turns to his side as Pereira charges him and blasts him with hammerfists. Knowing his work here is about to be done, Pereira finishes the job with a handful of ferocious fists to the side of the head. Dean steps in between them to call a halt to the main event, and if there was any question regarding the nature of the stoppage, Prochazka is unable to get back to his feet without assistance. Prochazka falls into the arms of Dean, as he should not have stood back up yet and is completely short-circuited. Pereira walks off, adjusting his foot, and he pops a toe back into socket or cranks it as it is broken or re-broken, likely from the punctuating head kick. Prochazka is brought down to the stool to recover, and when he recovers, he is crestfallen when learning the result. Once more, the two-division champion makes a statement, ending any debate regarding his series with Prochazka. In his post-fight interview, “Poatan” is asked about his future, which could potentially include a move to heavyweight to challenge for another belt. If the UFC does that, we will be here for that. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jiri Prochazka R2 0:13 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Pereira after flipping from Procházka. He acknowledges Procházka's ability to win ugly fights but believes Pereira's world-class kickboxing and left hook will be too much for the hittable Procházka. He falls into the 'easy narrative' but thinks it's correct.

"I am going to go with Alice B here he is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by first-round knockout. He criticizes Procházka's non-existent striking defense, noting he blocks punches with his face and has been rocked by lesser hitters. He believes Pereira's left hook will be too much for Procházka to handle. Brady acknowledges Procházka's toughness but thinks Pereira's power is a different level.

Pereira by first-round knockout
"I like Alex Pereira here... I'm going to take Alex Pereira to win this fight and win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody picks Pereira, citing Procházka's long layoff and shoulder surgery as major concerns. He notes Procházka is a defensive liability who gets hit often, while Pereira is more polished and has been improving under Glover Teixeira. He believes Pereira's kickboxing pedigree and second fight at 205 will be key, though he acknowledges Procházka's power and volume could cause problems.

"I got a guy that I now still think is a defensive liability... Pereira meanwhile... more polished more refined kickboxer"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James passes on this fight entirely, calling it a massive pass due to extreme volatility. He notes both fighters have knockout power and questionable chins, and Procházka brings unorthodox strikes that Pereira hasn't faced. He leans slightly toward Pereira based on technical striking but admits he doesn't know and considers it 50/50. He mentions Procházka may have better recovery and durability.

No bet; considers over 1.5 but doesn't commit.
"Big pass for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Pereira's disciplined technical striking will be the difference against the wild and reckless Procházka. He will stuff takedowns and keep the fight on the feet. Procházka's power is a concern but Pereira's check left hook is nasty. Expects Pereira to open up a knockout victory and become the light heavyweight champion.

knockout victory
"look for the disciplined technical striking approach for Pera to open up a knockout victory over Yuri prasa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Pereira's first move up to 205 was tough but now he's had time to fill out his frame. He thinks Pereira's grappling under Glover is improving and that the takedown threat from Procházka is minimal. He sees Pereira's precision striking as the difference, eventually clipping Procházka.

"I'm on board with you I feel like eventually he's going to get clipped from a much more precise type of strike so uh it's Pereira for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira, citing his takedown defense and momentum. He notes that Procházka drops his right hand when striking, leaving him open to Pereira's left hook. He also mentions that Procházka has been wobbled in every fight and has been out for a year and a half with injury. He predicts Pereira will TKO Procházka in round one or two.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I reckon Pereira is going to TKO Yi in round two or one"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R5 4:32 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 111 of 161 68% 159 of 212 5 of 17 29% 1 2 9:47
Glover Teixeira 0 120 of 205 58% 157 of 245 0 of 0 --- 1 4 4:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 27 of 36 75% 48 of 58 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:49
Glover Teixeira 0 14 of 25 56% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:22
2 Jiří Procházka 0 27 of 42 64% 32 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:35
Glover Teixeira 0 36 of 66 54% 38 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Jiří Procházka 0 12 of 22 54% 15 of 26 1 of 6 16% 0 1 1:17
Glover Teixeira 0 43 of 59 72% 55 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
4 Jiří Procházka 0 24 of 29 82% 29 of 34 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:33
Glover Teixeira 0 21 of 39 53% 29 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 2 1:09
5 Jiří Procházka 0 21 of 32 65% 35 of 46 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:33
Glover Teixeira 0 6 of 16 37% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 111 of 161 68% 98 of 145 12 of 15 1 of 1 45 of 86 6 of 7 60 of 68
Glover Teixeira 120 of 205 58% 106 of 190 12 of 13 2 of 2 76 of 142 8 of 11 36 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 27 of 36 75% 25 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 1 of 1 20 of 22
Glover Teixeira 14 of 25 56% 12 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 11 0 of 0 9 of 14
2 Jiří Procházka 27 of 42 64% 25 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 22 0 of 0 17 of 20
Glover Teixeira 36 of 66 54% 36 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0 32 of 59 3 of 5 1 of 2
3 Jiří Procházka 12 of 22 54% 10 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 11 4 of 5 6 of 6
Glover Teixeira 43 of 59 72% 34 of 50 8 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 39 5 of 6 12 of 14
4 Jiří Procházka 24 of 29 82% 17 of 22 7 of 7 0 of 0 10 of 13 1 of 1 13 of 15
Glover Teixeira 21 of 39 53% 19 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 17 0 of 0 14 of 22
5 Jiří Procházka 21 of 32 65% 21 of 30 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 27 0 of 0 4 of 5
Glover Teixeira 6 of 16 37% 5 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Angelo picks Glover, admitting bias but also providing objective reasoning. He notes Glover has multiple paths to victory (KO, submission, decision) while Jiri only has KO. He highlights Glover's takedown ability and Jiri's poor takedown defense. He believes Glover's chin will hold up and he can weather Jiri's early storm.

money line bet at plus 170
"i've got a money line bet on glover at plus 170. if you can't bet on your fights who the hell you gonna bet on but i genuinely bias aside think that glover can win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady picks Jiří Procházka to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Procházka has a significant advantage in striking power and reach, while Teixeira's chin is questionable at 42 years old. Although Teixeira has a path to victory via takedowns and ground control, Brady believes Procházka's unorthodox style and power will be too much.

win by knockout in round 1
"I'm gonna say Jiří knocks out Glover Teixeira in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is torn on this fight. He acknowledges Glover's grappling and submission threat, but thinks Procházka's dynamic striking and youth will be too much. He notes Procházka's takedown defense is an unknown but expects improvements. He leans Procházka by KO, but plans to hedge with Glover if needed.

under 2.5 rounds considered safest; plans to hedge with Glover at plus money
"my head tells me here he's going to catch it way too fast way too long... but my heart's telling me gloria's gonna wade to the left... i'm torn"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka but is very hesitant. He acknowledges the value on Glover Teixeira at plus money and admits he has been wrong on Glover many times before. He worries about Procházka's defensive liabilities and small UFC sample size, but ultimately leans on Procházka's unique style, speed, and finishing ability. He also mentions jet lag favoring Procházka since the Czech Republic is closer to Singapore than the US.

Procházka by KO; fight doesn't go the distance (minus 500); Glover money line or inside distance or submission line has value
"my official pick is going to be Yuri prohaska to become the new champ it's just you guys got to understand I've been wrong on so many Glory Sheriff fights this guy keeps defying the odds I think the value …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Procházka has dynamic striking and power, and Glover's head movement is poor. Glover's path is grappling, but Procházka's length and movement make it hard to take him down. Glover has been knocked out by rangy strikers before. I see Procházka winning by knockout, likely in the first two rounds. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds (-190), Procházka by KO (-150)
"I think that pro huska will eventually find that chin and put him out here i just can't bet myself i would rather take the under two and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

Paul leans Glover by submission, citing Glover's superior grappling and top control. He questions Procházka's ground game and believes Glover will get a takedown and submit him. He notes Glover's chin issues but thinks his experience and BJJ will prevail.

Glover by submission
"i'm going to lean on glover does get a takedown and i don't know enough about pro hotsky's ground game... glover by sub"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Glover Teixeira

The MMA Guru picks Glover Teixeira to win by first-round rear-naked choke. He believes Procházka has defensive flaws on the ground and gets hit often on the feet. He notes that many fighters have taken Procházka down, and Teixeira's grappling will be a major threat. He expects Procházka to be aggressive and switch stances, leaving openings for Teixeira's double-leg takedown. He mentions Teixeira's lack of damage in his last fight and championship experience as advantages. He admits he wants Procházka to win but thinks Teixeira has it.

first round rear-naked choke
"i'm going to go with a glover to share her first round remake of choke over yuri"
KO (spinning back elbow) R2 4:29 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 63 of 108 58% 68 of 114 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 1 77 of 136 56% 78 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 39 of 66 59% 39 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Dominick Reyes 0 45 of 81 55% 45 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 24 of 42 57% 29 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 32 of 55 58% 33 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 63 of 108 58% 39 of 81 21 of 24 3 of 3 57 of 100 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 77 of 136 56% 61 of 119 16 of 17 0 of 0 70 of 122 1 of 2 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 39 of 66 59% 25 of 51 12 of 13 2 of 2 39 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 45 of 81 55% 36 of 71 9 of 10 0 of 0 44 of 79 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 24 of 42 57% 14 of 30 9 of 11 1 of 1 18 of 34 1 of 1 5 of 7
Dominick Reyes 32 of 55 58% 25 of 48 7 of 7 0 of 0 26 of 43 0 of 0 6 of 12
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, taking the underdog. He criticizes Procházka's striking defense, noting that he was tagged multiple times by Volkan Oezdemir and fights with his hands down. Brady believes Reyes is motivated after a bad loss and has the power to exploit Procházka's defensive flaws. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He acknowledges that both can knock each other out but favors Reyes due to Procházka's recklessness.

under 2.5 rounds, first round knockout
"i'm gonna take dominic reyes here to get the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is a huge Jiří Procházka fan and has backed him before. He notes that Procházka comes out berserk and is always looking to bet the under on his fights. He believes Procházka will bomb rush Reyes and win the early rounds, and questions Reyes' durability after being flatlined by Jan Błachowicz. He also mentions that Reyes' output falls off in later rounds, which favors Procházka's aggressive style. However, he acknowledges that if Reyes survives the early onslaught, the fight could turn in his favor in a five-round fight.

under 1.5 rounds (lean)
"i am going to go yeary in this spot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Levi picks Jiří Procházka to win, citing Procházka's high confidence, unique style, and toughness. He notes that Reyes is a point fighter who may be mentally deflated after the Jones fight and lacks one-punch power. Levi believes Procházka's offensive arsenal and ability to recover from adversity will be the difference.

"i'm gonna go with uh the favorite here yuri prohaska to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host picks Jiří Procházka by KO, citing his power and unorthodox style. He notes that Reyes is more technical but has shown durability issues and a tendency to fade. He expects Procházka's constant pressure to eventually overwhelm Reyes and get a finish in the second round.

Jiří Procházka by KO at +125; Over 1.5 rounds at -155; Fight won't start round 4 at -210; Fight won't start round 3 at -130
"I do like pro husks guy here i think he gets it done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul has backed Dominick Reyes in every fight but was let down in the Jan fight. He thinks Reyes' best performance was against Jon Jones, but that might be due to Jones fighting down to his level. He notes that Reyes has low output outside of that fight and that Procházka's aggression could exploit Reyes' potential chin issues. He leans toward Procházka but is not confident, saying the fight could go either way. He also mentions he'd rather bet under 2.5 rounds if available.

under 2.5 rounds (preference)
"i'm gonna take yuri as well i'm leaning towards that under one and a half but honestly one i'd rather be under two and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka to win by second-round TKO over Dominick Reyes. He notes that Reyes is coming off a broken nose and rib, and that Procházka's awkward movement and power could break Reyes' nose early. He believes Procházka has momentum and a reach advantage, and that Reyes may not have improved enough. He also mentions that if Reyes wins, it will likely be by head kick.

second round TKO
"i'm going with yuri project man got the momentum tko second round over dominic reyes"
Aleksandar Rakić - Fight History
SCHED vs Marcin Tybura
KO R1 3:11 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksandar Rakić 0 9 of 14 64% 13 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Azamat Murzakanov 1 3 of 8 37% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksandar Rakić 0 9 of 14 64% 13 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Azamat Murzakanov 1 3 of 8 37% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksandar Rakić 9 of 14 64% 0 of 3 3 of 4 6 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Azamat Murzakanov 3 of 8 37% 1 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksandar Rakić 9 of 14 64% 0 of 3 3 of 4 6 of 7 8 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Azamat Murzakanov 3 of 8 37% 1 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Aleksandar Rakic
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Murzakanov (-118), Rakic (-102)

Round 1
The main card of one of the presumably final pay-per-views for the organization kicks off with a light heavyweight eliminator, although the elimination could be one’s job depending on the result. Having lost his last three, “Rocket” Rakic (14-5, 6-4 UFC) needs to record his first triumph since 2021. On a slow-moving rocket blasting towards him is Russia’s Murzakanov (15-0, 5-0 UFC), three years the elder but never having lost as a professional. This tale of two tides will be overseen by referee Rich Mitchell, quite aware of the implications this outing may have on the light heavyweight division.
Rakic quickly lets loose a range-finding low kick, and he skims the side of his opponent when lifting his leg higher. Rakic hammers the upper chest with a kick, and he ducks away from two looping hooks. Rakic prods at the front leg with his shin, and he scores another heavy body kick that Murzakanov partially leaned into. Rakic kicks up the middle and then hits the front leg, and he changes things up for a double-leg entry and bullies the Russian to the fencing. Murzakanov defends the first effort with his back to the wall, and he starts taking knees to the thigh while he looks off at the clock that reads three minutes remaining. Murzakanov pushes off and separates, and he lances a trio of punches down the middle at his foe. Rakic replies with a right hand to the waist, and Murzakanov gives him one back to think about. Rakic kicks the body, then the lead leg, and those two open up a single-leg entry.
Murzakanov times a counter to roll Rakic over, but this results in an uncomfortable position for both men so they abandon it and start back over on the feet. Murzakanov sits down on a short right hand, and it catches Rakic’s chin perfectly and separates him from his senses right as Rakic was rushing forward to engage. The Austrian hits the floor and turns over to his side to shell up, seemingly totally out of it and done for the day. Murzakanov seems almost surprised, and he rains down a few punches to punctuate the performance and keep his undefeated record that way. Mitchell waves the fight off, and in the blink of an eye the two went from trading blows to lights out. The Russian has landed his fifth knockout as a UFC light heavyweight, and less than a dozen men hold more in promotional history—Chuck Liddell’s nine in the modern era still leads the pack.

The Official Result
Azamat Murzakanov def. Aleksandar Rakic R1 3:11 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo leans toward Azamat Murzakanov despite acknowledging Rakic's reach and technical striking. He notes Murzakanov has knockdowns in all six UFC fights and is powerful, but also small for the division. Angelo thinks Rakic is too low-volume and used to losing, and he might sprinkle a small bet on Murzakanov if the odds widen.

I might sprinkle sprinkle a little bit on him.
"I am still going to lean Murzakanov. I think Rakic is too safe, too low-volume, and honestly, too used to losing at this point. ... Azamat Murzakanov's the pick. We'll see if these odds widen or tighten, and I might …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Big Brady leans toward Aleksandar Rakić, despite Murzakanov's undefeated record. He notes Rakić has faced elite competition (former champions) and has a significant size advantage (4-inch height, 7.5-inch reach). Brady expects Rakić's superior cardio and leg kicks to be decisive as Murzakanov slows down in fights. He predicts a close decision win for Rakić, though he hates picking against Murzakanov.

Rakić by decision
"I'm leaning Rakić's way. It's very tough to pick against Murzakanov cuz Murzakanov just kind of looks like he's just kind of he's going to keep winning. But I feel like I got to go Rakić here. I'm going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Cody picks Azamat Murzakanov despite the size disadvantage, citing his undefeated record and knockout power. He notes that Rakić is on a three-fight losing streak and may have confidence issues, while Murzakanov finds a way to win. Cody acknowledges that Rakić is world-class and will have moments, but believes Murzakanov's power and finishing ability will prevail, though he expects a close fight.

"Murzakanov at some point finds the kill shot for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Connor picks Rakić, arguing that Murzakanov's level of competition has been low and his size disadvantage will be too much. He believes Rakić's reach and kicking game will keep Murzakanov at bay, and that Murzakanov's low output will cost him rounds. Connor thinks this is a step too far for Murzakanov.

"I'm going to pick Rockach here. I think that this is really just the point where Mirza Kannav's small, small, small guy who takes huge chances game just can't overcome."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Vreeland questions Rakić's confidence and durability, noting his tendency to fade and his recent losses. He believes Murzakanov's pressure, southpaw power, and ability to close distance will overwhelm Rakić. He predicts Murzakanov will walk Rakić down, get into punching range, and knock him out. He acknowledges Murzakanov's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early.

wins by KO
"I'm going to pick Mzakanov to extend his win streak and to come out here and knock out Alexander Rockic."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Lucrative James picks Aleksandar Rakić, but hesitantly. He cites Rakić's experience against top competition (Jan Błachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, Magomed Ankalaev) and his size advantage, which could make his head kicks effective. He notes Murzakanov's power and explosiveness but questions his cardio and level of competition. He believes Rakić can win the minutes and land kicks from the outside, but acknowledges Murzakanov's danger.

"I am going to pick Rakage here, boys. I've decided I'm going to pick Rakage because I think he might be a little bit underrated coming off three losses to three of the best in the division."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The host believes Rakić can stay away from Murzakanov's power, chip away with calf kicks, and mix in grappling. He thinks Rakić's size and strength will lead to a knockout.

knockout
"I think that Rakage is going to be too big and too strong for Mzrizzakonov, which should lead to Rakage finding that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul also picks Murzakanov but is hesitant, noting the size difference and Rakić's speed. He plans to wait for weigh-ins to get a better price, as Murzakanov may drift to plus money. Paul acknowledges that Murzakanov's cardio is a concern, but believes his power and the Abu Dhabi crowd support give him an edge.

"Murzakanov is the side for me. I'm going to wait until weigh-ins cuz I feel like you may get a better price."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić by decision, but admits he is hesitant. He notes that Azamat Murzakanov is undefeated and has KO power, but Rakić has a significant reach advantage and has trained with Jon Jones. He believes Rakić's low kicks and range management will be key, and that Murzakanov's shorter frame may struggle to land. He references Rakić's close fight with Magomed Ankalaev and his performance against Jiri Prochazka before getting injured. He expects a 29-28 decision, possibly with a scare in the third round.

"I'm going with Aleksandar Rakic. Sad, I know. I don't know why I keep doing it, but I can't [ __ ] help myself."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Zane picks Murzakanov, comparing him to a wolverine who will not accept losing. He believes Murzakanov will absorb early damage from Rakić's kicks but then storm forward and steal rounds with crushing offense. Zane notes Rakić's tendency to fall apart under pressure and thinks Murzakanov's aggression will be the difference.

"I'm still going to pick Mirza Kannav here. I think, um, he's going to soak up a lot of damage, but I think there's enough of what we saw from Uncle I have against Rockach and Mirza Kannav that at …"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Magomed Ankalaev 0 55 of 114 48% 75 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Aleksandar Rakić 0 53 of 117 45% 59 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Magomed Ankalaev 0 19 of 34 55% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Magomed Ankalaev 0 23 of 50 46% 24 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Aleksandar Rakić 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Magomed Ankalaev 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Aleksandar Rakić 0 12 of 29 41% 17 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Magomed Ankalaev 55 of 114 48% 20 of 72 22 of 29 13 of 13 50 of 105 5 of 9 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 53 of 117 45% 10 of 65 9 of 12 34 of 40 50 of 111 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Magomed Ankalaev 19 of 34 55% 7 of 19 8 of 11 4 of 4 19 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 22 of 45 48% 4 of 24 3 of 4 15 of 17 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Magomed Ankalaev 23 of 50 46% 8 of 33 7 of 9 8 of 8 23 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 19 of 43 44% 3 of 24 3 of 5 13 of 14 18 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Magomed Ankalaev 13 of 30 43% 5 of 20 7 of 9 1 of 1 8 of 22 5 of 8 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 12 of 29 41% 3 of 17 3 of 3 6 of 9 10 of 25 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-345), Rakic (+275)

Round 1
Austria has dual representation on the lineup, a rarity among UFC cards let alone ones that take place in the Middle East and not Europe. Russian title challenger Ankalaev (18-1-1, 1 NC; 10-1-1, 1 NC UFC) will try to grind, smash and press towards another crack at gold, but standing in his way is a recovered Rakic (14-4, 6-3 UFC). While Rakic is riding the first losing streak of his career, and has not won in over three years, he still serves as a solid test that Ankalaev has not already passed at the depleted light heavyweight ranks. Joining them in the cage will be referee “Shaolin” Vitor Ribeiro, who gets things started as the combatants decide against touching gloves. Ankalaev opens up wildly, hurling a huge left hand, only to slow down when Rakic fires a head kick at him. Ankalaev responds with a body kick, and they trade kicks to varied targets. Rakic comes up short with a right hand, and they hand-fight in alternating stances. Body kicks land with thumps on one another, and Rakic doubles up on it and tries to catch a low kick. Ankalaev digs another kick to the ribs, and Ribeiro asks for the fighters to close their fists. They don’t. Rakic chains a right hand into a head kick, and he scoots away when Ankalaev bears down on him. Ankalaev reaches his target with a straight left hand, and Rakic sits down on an inside low kick to retaliate. Ankalaev put a few fists on the midsection, keeping his guard up to block the inevitable head kick. Rakic scores a low kick and is punched in the face for his effort, and he times a head kick that nearly splits the guard. Ankalaev goes after a body kick after he leans back to dodge a punch, and Rakic chips away at the lead leg effectively. Ankalaev stalks him down, protecting his face when Rakic punches and kicks his way. Rakic kicks the front leg on the inside and outside, and Ribeiro keeps telling the fighters to close their hands to no avail. Ankalaev gets countered with a right hand over the top, and he eats a jab after landing his own left. Rakic beats on the guard with his shin, and he whiffs on a haymaker as Ankalaev comes up close. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 2
Rakic picks up right where he left off, feeding Ankalaev a steady diet of leg kicks. Ankalaev crashes the pocket and turns to smack Rakic in the face with a clever up-elbow, and Rakic wears it well. Both men whiff punches, and Ankalaev’s head kick grazes the beard. Rakic reaches out with a right hand, and he jabs the body with the ball of his foot. Rakic splits the guard with a solid right, and he leans back to bash Ankalaev in the face with an intercepting left. Ankalaev reaches his target with punches to the head and body, and he ends as labored combination with a body kick. Ankalaev jabs his way in, but a left to the body is his best blow, as Rakic keeps a solid poker face but might be hurt. Rakic backs off and measures with distant strikes, and the crowd works into a lather in support of the Russian, who is landing cleaner. Ankalaev digs a left to the body and fires off a head kick that is blocked just in time, and he strings a few punches together to get Rakic’s attention. Rakic snaps out several more low kicks, reddening and welting his opponent’s front leg, but not seemingly compromising him. Ankalaev’s forward movement results in a clinch, and he pushes the Austrian to the wall and holds on. They both swing fists at the break but miss the mark, and Ankalaev rushes after him and tags his foe with a straight left. Ankalaev stabs the torso with a left hand, and he has a left hook brush past the top of Rakic’s dome. Rakic kicks high to get blocked, and he looks for a right hand on the inside as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev

Round 3
The fighters get going immediately, trading hands and feet without fear of reprisal. Ankalaev lunges with a left hand, snapping the head back and whiffing on a follow-up right. High kicks from both men bounce off the other’s guard, and Rakic backs off and spins with a back fist as Ankalaev is after him. Ankalaev slams his foot in the liver of his opponent, and Rakic comes up hitting air on the counter. As Rakic lands a right hand, sweat flies, and Ankalaev responds with a left that makes more fly off his opponent. Rakic digs for a body shot and leans back to avoid a huge hook, and Ankalaev walks him down and busts him in the chops with a scooping left hook. Rakic backs off and absorbs a second cleanly, and he gets on his bike and strafes to the side. Rakic suddenly shoots for a single, and Ankalaev hops back to the wall to keep his balance and set his limb down. Rakic transitions to a single on the other side, and he succeeds in leaning against Ankalaev but can do little else with his wrestling. Ankalaev turns his man about in the clinch, working the body with punches and knees until Rakic surges into action and spins him about. Ankalaev plants a solid knee on the torso, and he measures another as Rakic leans over. Ankalaev puts knees on the body as Rakic gains enough space to dirty box, and the Russian holds him tight until the slow-paced contest comes to a merciful conclusion—with neither looking like a strong threat to claim the throne of Alex Pereira.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)

The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev def. Aleksandar Rakic via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev as the first leg of his 'villain parlay' with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Ankalaev is a good kickboxer with wrestling, but he dislikes him and hopes the parlay loses. He thinks Ankalaev should win because Rakić is coming off two losses and hasn't won since 2021, and Ankalaev has the technical striking and wrestling advantage.

First leg of a villain parlay with a full unit bet; hopes it loses.
"mag anv has the wrestling he's got the technical striking he's just as long anv should win he is the first leg of the villain parlay a parlay that I put a full unit on and I hope it breaks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Big Brady slightly favors Ankalaev but thinks the fight will be close and competitive. He expects the striking to be competitive and the fight to go to decision. He notes that Ankalaev has a path to victory via wrestling, as Rakić hasn't faced many wrestlers in the UFC. He calls the line 'kind of dumb' but picks Ankalaev to win a close decision.

"I'll take ank live to win a close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Cody picks Magomed Ankalaev, stating he is the uncrowned champion of the division and should roll over Rakić. He notes that Rakić hasn't looked good since 2019, has been knocked out in his last two fights, and lacks durability and volume. Cody believes Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be too much, and that he will be motivated to make a statement to earn a title shot.

"ankle should in theory absolutely roll here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Connor picks Rakić, mainly because he wants Ankalaev to suffer and because Rakić is a more powerful striker with better fundamentals. He notes that Ankalaev tends to fight at a slow pace and rely on his wrestling, but often doesn't use it. Connor believes Rakić's jab and counter-punching could give him an edge in a kickboxing match.

Ankalaev opened at -350, currently -361; Rakić opened at +288, currently +296
"I'm going to pick Rocketch mostly because though I don't think he deserves it in any philosophical sense, I do want Magomed Uncle Liev to suffer."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing his superior hands and ability to capitalize on Rakić's tendency to exit the pocket with his chin up. He expects Rakić to have early leg kick success but believes Ankalaev will make adjustments and either win by knockout or a 29-28 decision. Vreeland notes that Ankalaev is on a 12-fight unbeaten streak and that Rakić has been underwhelming despite his physique.

"I see ankle live winning this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Lucrative James picks Magomed Ankalaev to win but is hesitant due to Ankalaev's poor fight IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter with grappling upside, but his low volume and lack of power could lead to a close decision. He sees value on Rakić as an underdog and expects a split decision type fight. He is not confident enough to bet on Ankalaev at -360 odds.

"I am going to pick anive to win... but his fight IQ is worse"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Ankalaev's overall game is too much for Rakić. Many expect a grapple-heavy approach, but Ankalaev may unleash his striking to catch Rakić off guard, leading to a knockout victory. This would help him overcome the 'boring' label and earn a title shot.

Ankalaev wins by knockout
"give me anive by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Paul picks Ankalaev, agreeing that he is the best in the division and that Rakić is not a top-five fighter. He points out that Rakić has been outworked and knocked out in his recent fights, and that Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be decisive. Paul also mentions that Ankalaev needs to put his foot on the gas to impress the UFC.

"he's the uncrowned champ he's the best guy in the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

The Guru picks Ankalaev by decision, despite acknowledging Rakić's technical skills. He believes Ankalaev's pressure and clinch work will wear on Rakić, and that Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to secure rounds. He notes that Rakić has struggled to finish opponents and that Ankalaev's boxing will become more effective as the fight goes on. The Guru also mentions that the odds are too wide in Ankalaev's favor, suggesting Rakić offers value as an underdog, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev via 29-28 decision.

Odds comment: Ankalaev nearly 4-to-1 favorite, should be 2-to-1 at most; suggests Rakić underdog value
"I'm going with Ankalaev 29-28 decision very eerily similar to the Nikita Krylov performance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)

Zane did not make a pick for this fight. He criticized the matchup as boring, noting both fighters are consistent, risk-averse range strikers who favor high-percentage low-power strikes. He expressed disappointment that the UFC booked this fight knowing their styles, and predicted Ankalaev will likely get a title shot anyway due to lack of other options.

"booking fights like uncle ayah versus below which and uncle ayah versus rackage you're just asking for lame you're asking for boring fights that nobody gets thrilled by"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Magomed Ankalaev

Zane picks Ankalaev, expecting a slow-paced kickboxing match where Ankalaev edges out a decision. He acknowledges Rakić's power and technique but thinks Ankalaev will control the tempo and win a close fight, as he has done before. Zane is not confident but sees Ankalaev as the likely winner.

Ankalaev opened at -350, currently -361; Rakić opened at +288, currently +296
"And Uncle Liev will win 55 strikes to 51. That's really it."
TKO (punches) R2 3:17 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jiří Procházka 0 69 of 118 58% 69 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Aleksandar Rakić 0 58 of 109 53% 58 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jiří Procházka 0 16 of 38 42% 16 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aleksandar Rakić 0 36 of 69 52% 36 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jiří Procházka 0 53 of 80 66% 53 of 80 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:35
Aleksandar Rakić 0 22 of 40 55% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jiří Procházka 69 of 118 58% 56 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 8 45 of 87 7 of 7 17 of 24
Aleksandar Rakić 58 of 109 53% 34 of 77 1 of 2 23 of 30 56 of 107 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jiří Procházka 16 of 38 42% 10 of 29 2 of 5 4 of 4 15 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 36 of 69 52% 19 of 45 0 of 1 17 of 23 35 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jiří Procházka 53 of 80 66% 46 of 72 3 of 4 4 of 4 30 of 50 6 of 6 17 of 24
Aleksandar Rakić 22 of 40 55% 15 of 32 1 of 1 6 of 7 21 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rakic (-120), Prochazka (+100)

Round 1
In any other UFC event, this sure-fire light heavyweight collision would draw main card status or potentially serve as the headliner. Due to just how stacked UFC 300 is—along with the decision to throw a 5-0 hot prospect above this bout—it will instead serve as the final prelim. Former champ Prochazka (29-4-1, 3-1 UFC) gets back in the saddle in a classic matchup of Czech Republic vs. Austria when he faces Rakic (14-3, 6-2 UFC). High finish rates for both men mean that referee Herb Dean will likely be involved before time expires, while the judges might be able to sit back and just enjoy the carnage waiting to unfold. Ever the sportsmen, they try to bump fists and miss, before all hell breaks loose. They both reach long strikes at one another, with Rakic landing a few jabs and low kicks. Prochazka darts in with an uppercut, and Rakic tries to keep him backed off with jabs and right hands. Rakic comes up short with a heavy right, and Prochazka nods to Dean that he is fine after finger scraped his eye. Prochazka dances around with his hands down, absorbing a right hand and several more low kicks. Prochazka scores one punch, and Rakic stands him up with two punches and dings him with a calf kick. Welting has already began to develop just 90 seconds in on Prochazka’s lead leg, and he pays it no mind and switches stances back and forth to attack. Rakic times a stance switch to chop down the calf, and Prochazka shrugs them off as he powers forward. Rakic hammers the lead leg with a kick, and Prochazka’s balance nearly gives way. Rakic scores a left hand when Prochazka recklessly attacks to open up a cut on the corner of the eye, as Prochazka struggles to put weight on his lead leg. Rakic does not slow his methodical breakdown with his leg kick, and he shifts out of the way when Prochazka advances. Prochazka eats two more low kicks, and he tries to give two more back. When he throws out a body kick, Rakic beans him with a right hand over the top. Rakic opens up with an overhand right, getting the former champ’s attention but not making him back away one moment. Prochazka crashes forward and misses, and Rakic slides to the side. Rakic slips in a right hand, and Prochazka dips and ducks forward to plant a front kick on the abdomen and a right hand up top. Prochazka drives a knee to the jaw, and Rakic unloads with a counter right. Prochazka powers through with a huge right hand, hurting “Rocket,” but Rakic stings him back before Prochazka can pour it on. Rakic lines up a one-two down the pipe, and Prochazka walks through it and clinches up until they reach the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 2
The light heavyweights bump fists, and Rakic immediately picks up where he left off by chewing up the former champ’s lead leg. The kicks force a stance switch, and Prochazka absorbs the kicks on both sides to fluster him. Rakic connects with right hands after jab, and he stands Prochazka up with a right hand. Prochazka fights through it and launches a head kick that bounces off the raised guard, and he takes a calf kick that disrupts him again. Prochazka kicks up high again, and he grazes the top of the head and follows it with power punches. Prochazka connects with his heavy strikes, and Rakic scampers away to reset and launch his own head kick that lands under Prochazka’s arm. Prochazka measures and blasts Rakic in the face with his shin, and the two strikes proceed to bang it out with no regard for their defenses. Prochazka unloads with another head kick, and he slugs it out until he gets two punches through. Rakic stumbles from one side of the cage to the other, and Prochazka knees him hard in the head. Rakic fires back with everything he has, and Prochazka bites down on his mouthpiece and batters Rakic with anything he has to strike with.
Prochazka pushes Rakic over and clobbers him with elbows, and Rakic turns over to his stomach and turtles up. “BJP” unleashes a fury of punches, and Dean watches closely until Rakic is stuck and just taking unnecessary damage at that point.
Dean calls a halt to the fight, capping off a furious comeback from the former champion. The two immediately squash any beef they carried into their meeting, and they hug it out.

The Official Result
Jiri Prochazka def. Aleksandar Rakic R2 3:17 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiri Prochazka as the underdog, citing his relentless pressure and chaos. He notes Rakic is the more technical striker but has been out for two years and doesn't like brawls. He likes the +110 odds as juicy but may not bet due to conservatism.

Odds comment: +110 is juicy
"plus 110 Jerry is the underdog those odds seem juicy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is confused why Rakić is a slight favorite. He lists many red flags for Rakić: a near 2-year layoff, coming off a leg injury, low volume, and unimpressive performances even before the injury. In contrast, Procházka is a former champion with dynamic striking, power, and a samurai mentality. Cody notes Procházka has a fifth-round submission win over Glover Teixeira and can wrestle if needed. He believes Procházka's pressure and power will overwhelm Rakić, who tends to avoid fighting. Cody picks Procházka as the underdog.

"I'm actually confused on this one I don't know why it's even money... got to go with yri."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka because his willingness to create chaos and take risks is valuable at light heavyweight. He contrasts Procházka's creative, reckless style with Rakić's neurotically technical, restrained approach. Connor argues that Procházka's ability to scramble and make fights uncontrollable will overcome Rakić's grinding, as Rakić has not faced someone with Procházka's level of unpredictability.

Odds: Procházka opened -100, now -103; Rakić opened -128, now -107. Connor notes the odds are dead even.
"I am going to pick Jiri Prashaska because I think despite the immense risk inherent to his game, that is a very valuable thing to have in MMA in general at light heavyweight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Vreeland picks Jiří Procházka as a slight underdog, citing his chaotic, unpredictable style and ability to force opponents into brawls. He acknowledges Rakić's athleticism and leg kicks but believes Procházka's offensive juggernaut approach and durability will lead to a finish. Vreeland notes that Procházka has been knocked out but expects him to make it wild and catch Rakić.

"I'm gonna go with the former champ Jiří Procházka"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says he is excited to see how Jiří Procházka bounces back from his loss. He does not provide a prediction.

"Jiří versus Rakić I'm excited to see how Jiří bounces back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Rakić will drag the fight to the ground where he can have success from top position. Procházka has struggled with opponents on top. Rakić will chain wrestling attempts and keep Procházka on his back, grinding out a decision win.

decision
"I think we'll see rage utilize that wrestling chain those wrestling attempts and then eventually keep rasa muzzled on his back and grind this fight out over 15 minutes winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Procházka. He notes that if it turns into an absolute fight, Procházka's pace and volume will be too much for Rakić, as seen in Procházka's fight with Dominick Reyes where he landed 77 significant strikes before a early third-round finish. Paul acknowledges both fighters have red flags (layoffs, injuries), but Rakić has been on the shelf longer and has bigger question marks. He emphasizes Procházka's samurai mentality and believes he will bring the fight to Rakić.

"I'm with I'm on Yuri as well... if it turns into an absolute fight you want Yuri."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić to defeat Jiří Procházka by targeting his lead leg with low kicks. He notes Procházka's weakness against leg kicks and that Rakić is comfortable backpedaling. He also mentions Rakić may mix in takedowns and predicts a finish or decision.

"Alexander rakic is going to chew up that lead leg of Yuri prasa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Zane picks Rakić despite hating his fighting style. He believes Rakić will land leg kicks, take Procházka down, and grind out a win over three rounds. He notes Procházka's wildness could turn the fight, but Rakić's durability and grinding approach should prevail. Zane is hedging because he wants Procházka to win but feels Rakić is the safer bet.

Odds: Rakić opened -128, now -107; Procházka opened -100, now -103. Zane mentions the fight is dead even in odds.
"My feel bad vibe is that I'm going to take Alexander Rocketch. I think he's going to land a lot of leg kicks. I think Proshaska is going to start lunging in and getting really aggressive. And Rocketch is going …"
LOSS vs Jan Błachowicz
TKO (knee injury) R3 1:11 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jan Błachowicz 0 31 of 71 43% 53 of 94 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:01
Aleksandar Rakić 0 27 of 85 31% 61 of 125 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jan Błachowicz 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 12 of 52 23% 12 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jan Błachowicz 0 1 of 3 33% 23 of 26 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 10 of 19 52% 44 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:33
3 Jan Błachowicz 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Aleksandar Rakić 0 5 of 14 35% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jan Błachowicz 31 of 71 43% 8 of 31 9 of 21 14 of 19 31 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 27 of 85 31% 14 of 60 2 of 9 11 of 16 17 of 70 0 of 0 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jan Błachowicz 25 of 53 47% 7 of 24 6 of 14 12 of 15 25 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 12 of 52 23% 1 of 32 1 of 8 10 of 12 12 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jan Błachowicz 1 of 3 33% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 10 of 19 52% 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 15
3 Jan Błachowicz 5 of 15 33% 1 of 6 2 of 6 2 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 5 of 14 35% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rakic (-180) Blachowicz (+155)

Round 1
For a probable light heavyweight title eliminator, the lead-up to this fight has been somewhat subdued, but none of that matters once the cage door closes on Blachowicz, Rakic and referee Mark Smith, who draws the final assignment at “UFC Vegas 54.” Both fighters are in orthodox stance. Blachowicz lands a hard calf kick. Blachowicz with a jab and missed right cross, then another low kick. They exchange flurries of punches. Blachowicz with a nice left to the body, but comes away bleeding from over the left eye. Blachowicz lands a low kick and another left to the body, but he is clearly distracted by blood dripping into the eye from that cut. Blachowicz catches Rakic with a right hand that rocks him, and Rakic grabs a body lock for a takedown. He can’t get it, but seems to have recovered as they disengage. Rakic steps inside a body shot and drops for a takedown, but can’t get it. Blachowicz comes up short with a calf kick at the 30 second mark. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz

Round 2
Blachowicz’s cutman has momentarily stopped the bleeding over the left eye, but that will certainly bear close watching as the fight goes on. The former champ lands a glancing low kick. Rakic drops levels for a takedown, and he gets it, hoisting the leg for a big finish, but dives right into a triangle choke. Blachowicz clears the arm and tries to cinch it up, but Rakic escapes and sets up in Blachowicz’s full guard. Blachowicz closes his guard and works to control Rakic’s wrists, while Rakic throws short elbow strikes to the body and head. As the halfway point of the round passes, Blachowicz briefly opens his guard and looks to hip out, but gives up on the attempt. Rakic is heavy on top, chest to chest, staying busy but not doing too much damage. They scoot to the fence and Blachowicz sits up, but Rakic has the legs laced and arms locked behind him. Rakic moves to one side and uses head position to pin Blachowicz’s torso up against the fence. Blachowicz stands just as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 3
Rakic is active with his jab in the opening seconds, reaching out to touch Blachowicz twice and backing him off. Blachowicz steps in and lands a combination, then another Rakic jab dislodges his mouthpiece. He pops it back in, and seconds later he lands an outside low kick to Rakic’s lead left leg.
Rakic steps back and unexpectedly, the right leg buckles under him completely. The Austrian goes down in agony, cradling the stricken limb.
Blachowicz steps in, but sees the fight is over and refrains from inflicting any unnecessary harm. A moment later, referee Smith arrives to wave it off, a surprising and disappointing end to fight that had been building towards something good.

The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz def. Aleksandar Rakic R3 1:11 via TKO (Leg Injury)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.

"I think I would have to go wreckage but uh I'd like to put main events on my top ticket right and his wreckage a top ticket guy I just explained that I think that the value is not really …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.

"there could be a case to be made that rakic's wrestling hasn't been tested and yawn historically fantastic chin good cardio volume is okay volume is better than what we've seen from rackets i mean if he drags this kid …"
WIN vs Thiago Santos
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Mar 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksandar Rakić 0 49 of 97 50% 61 of 109 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 36 of 89 40% 50 of 103 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksandar Rakić 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aleksandar Rakić 0 11 of 31 35% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 15 of 35 42% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
3 Aleksandar Rakić 0 23 of 39 58% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 7 of 24 29% 12 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksandar Rakić 49 of 97 50% 10 of 41 23 of 33 16 of 23 35 of 82 14 of 15 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 36 of 89 40% 8 of 47 13 of 16 15 of 26 29 of 82 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksandar Rakić 15 of 27 55% 1 of 8 8 of 11 6 of 8 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 14 of 30 46% 3 of 16 3 of 4 8 of 10 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Aleksandar Rakić 11 of 31 35% 3 of 16 6 of 10 2 of 5 5 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 15 of 35 42% 3 of 17 8 of 9 4 of 9 8 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
3 Aleksandar Rakić 23 of 39 58% 6 of 17 9 of 12 8 of 10 15 of 30 8 of 9 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 7 of 24 29% 2 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 7 7 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Thiago Santos vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Round 1
Officially the heaviest bout of the night at a solid 412 pounds, two light heavyweights who vastly prefer the knockout come to blows in the main card opener. Brazil’s Santos (21-8, 13-7 UFC) will be attempting to get back to title contention and defuse “Rocket” Rakic (13-2, 5-1 UFC) on the way back up. Keeping his head on a swivel will be referee Herb Dean, as fists and feet will soon be flying in all directions following the glove touch. Rakic slowly and patiently advances, sticking out his jab early and avoiding a counter right hook. Santos pushes out a front kick and lifts his leg to avoid a leg kick, and rushes in to attack. Rakic deflects the strikes and he takes a kick to the knee, but there is no major damage done. Both men score leg kicks, and Santos winds up on a big left hand. Rakic is able to avoid the bomb and throw a kick back, and Santos returns fire with one of his own. Rakic slings a head kick that the Brazilian is barely able to block in time. Santos delivers a big body kick and has one glance off his torso as he backs away. Santos once more scores a heavy body kick, and he takes a kick square on the knee that nearly makes it buckle. “Marreta” throws a hammer of a right hand that crashes into Rakic’s jaw, but the Austrian wears it well and kicks the leg on his way out. Rakic pressures forward and slaps a leg kick off the mark, and Santos replies with a kick. Santos swings with a massive left hand, and when it misses, he barely ducks a head kick that brushes past his cleanly shaven head. Santos whiffs on a massive punch to the body, but he does kick the body to make Rakic exhale sharply. Neither man is willing to pull the trigger on anything of note, and they trade leg kicks and body kicks. Santos jumps and misses with a flying knee, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Rakic resumes his pressure to make Santos back away to the fence. Rakic sticks Santos with a low kick and a jab, and the Brazilian tries and fails to counter effectively. Santos comes up short on a superman punch, and he looses a head kick that Rakic easily blocks. Rakic slowly advances and throws a long left jab and a leg kick that makes Santos turn about. Santos responds with his own leg kick, but the two are largely throwing single strikes and not engaging often. Rakic chops at the leg, and Santos charges at him but hits air as he has his lead leg hacked at once more. Santos pushes into a clinch, and Rakic easily reverses him and lands a few knees on the inside. The Brazilian gives him a few back, as they stall out against the cage wall. Santos breaks and scores on the end of a left hook, and when he backs off, he checks a kick to make Rakic recoil it sharply. Rakic kicks the chest, and Santos gives Rakic a heavy reply with a slapping kick to the knee. Santos charges but pulls back before throwing a strike, and Rakic plants his left hand on the chin to no effect. Santos jumps in with a switch kick, but it gets blocked and he is countered with a stiff left hand. Rakic nails Santos with a flying knee, and the two clinch up to end the slow round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 3
There is a final glove touch to open the last round, and Rakic starts things off with a head kick that is easily blocked. Santos punches the thigh, and “Rocket” starts rocketing out several stiff jabs to keep Santos at bay. The Brazilian walks through them to charge in for a takedown, and Rakic stuffs it without breaking a sweat and turns Santos around into the wire. Santos fights out of the clinch but cannot land any of merit on the break, and he takes a jab to score a leg kick. Both men kick at one another’s knee, and Santos kicks the leg once more to draw a smile from his opponent. When Rakic rushes in, Santos belts him with a spinning back kick to the body, and Rakic keeps a solid poker face by not showing that it hurt. Rakic pokes and prods at Santos with a few jabs, one-twos and low kicks. Santos loads up on a head kick, and Rakic sees it coming and pays it no mind. Santos narrowly misses a blazing fast left hook, and Rakic tries to fire one back but also comes up short. Santos slams his shin into the body, and Rakic stays patient on the outside with sporadic jabs. The jab does enough to slow an advancing Santos, and Rakic makes Santos bounce off the cage wall with a kick. Rakic ducks an overhand left to shoot in for a takedown, and Santos defends with several elbows to the side of the head. Rakic does not like these strikes, and he bails on the attempt to put himself in a better position away from those damaging shots. Rakic grinds on Santos against the fence, mashing his man into the chain-link as precious seconds tick off the clock. The Brazilian finally pushes off, and he takes a hard leg kick on the inside. Santos comes back with one, and the two swing and miss until the tepid fight mercifully comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos (29-28 Rakic)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos (29-28 Rakic)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos (29-28 Rakic)

The Official Result
Aleksandar Rakic def. Thiago Santos via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Big Brady picks Aleksandar Rakić, favoring him on the feet and heavily on the ground. He notes Rakić has been dropped before (by Devin Clark) and is hittable, while Santos has one-shot power. He recommends a ground game plan and predicts a TKO ground-and-pound finish in the second round, but passes on betting.

"i'm going to take rakash to win i'm going to say he wins by a tikiyo ground and pound finish in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Daniel picks Aleksandar Rakić to win, citing his well-rounded game, wrestling, and smart game planning. He notes Santos' submission defense issues and believes Rakić can mix in takedowns and possibly finish on the mat or win a decision.

"i'm gonna go with rockets here uh to edge this one out man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Rakić is younger, stronger, and has a wrestling advantage. Santos is 37 with knee injuries and poor jiu-jitsu off his back. The host expects Rakić to use his kicks and takedowns to control the fight and win by decision.

"i'm going to take rockets to when this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić over Thiago Santos. He highlights Rakić's dangerous leg kicks and improved grappling, and notes Santos has no ligaments in his legs. He believes Rakić will chop at Santos's legs, inhibit his movement, and win by 30-27 unanimous decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

"i'm gonna go with alexander wreckage i like thiago santos you've got no ligaments in your legs and wreckage has the best leg kicks i've ever seen"
WIN vs Anthony Smith
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · Aug 29, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksandar Rakić 0 9 of 21 42% 40 of 53 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Anthony Smith 1 44 of 57 77% 141 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 12:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksandar Rakić 0 5 of 11 45% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Anthony Smith 1 17 of 21 80% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:22
2 Aleksandar Rakić 0 4 of 8 50% 18 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Anthony Smith 0 9 of 12 75% 61 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:31
3 Aleksandar Rakić 0 0 of 2 0% 9 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Anthony Smith 0 18 of 24 75% 41 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksandar Rakić 9 of 21 42% 5 of 16 0 of 1 4 of 4 6 of 14 1 of 2 2 of 5
Anthony Smith 44 of 57 77% 16 of 28 7 of 8 21 of 21 25 of 34 2 of 2 17 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksandar Rakić 5 of 11 45% 1 of 6 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 17 of 21 80% 5 of 8 1 of 2 11 of 11 14 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Aleksandar Rakić 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5
Anthony Smith 9 of 12 75% 5 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 8 1 of 1 2 of 3
3 Aleksandar Rakić 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 18 of 24 75% 6 of 12 3 of 3 9 of 9 5 of 8 1 of 1 12 of 15
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Round 1
We have reached the headliner a little earlier than expected thanks to the coronavirus, and this late-notice marquee matchup is scheduled for just three rounds at the light heavyweight division. Former title challenger Smith (33-15, 8-5 UFC) tries to put “Rocket” Rakic (12-2, 4-1 UFC) on his first career losing streak, and referee Herb Dean will be holding on tight for what could be an all-action fight – these two have only gone the distance seven times in 62 combined fights. They touch gloves, and it’s on! Like so many fights earlier tonight, the first strike of the bout is a leg kick – from Rakic. Smith replies in kind. Rakic loads up with one that lands with a resounding slap. Rakic takes one back, but he delivers a body kick to Smith’s midsection. They keep trading leg kicks early, and both men are putting everything they have into these thudding kicks. Rakic goes up high with a kick this time, and the two start trading with punches now. They kick legs at the same time, and Rakic cracks the lead leg and makes Smith’s knee buckle. Two more take Smith’s legs out from beneath him, and Rakic climbs on top to start pounding on Smith’s body. Smith pushes his way up and tries to take take the Austrian down, but as Smith ties him up, Rakic stands up. Smith leaps on to his back to serve as a backpack, but Rakic shucks him off and uses a guillotine choke to frame up. He bowls Smith over and hops on top, where he gets off a couple of punches as Smith clings to him to tie him up. Smith uses a butterfly guard to try to kick Rakic off, but opts to use a rubber guard and flirts with an omoplata before Rakic stands up out of it. The Austrian comes back down as Smith keeps a high guard, and Smith lifts his left leg up but abandons it when there is nothing doing. Smith looks to Dean for a standup, but it does not come as Rakic shoulder checks him a couple times. Smith swings hard with a left hand while is trapped against the cage, and Rakic smiles and lands a few punches until the horn blares. Any concerns about Smith’s leg health are instantly abated as he strides back to his corner.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 2
They touch gloves and Rakic instantly fires at that leg. Smith closes in and gets kneed in the face to back off. Rakic bestows to him a few body kicks, although Smith stings him back with a few punches. Smith crashes forward to pursue a body lock takedown, and Rakic reverses the position to throw Smith down and land on top in guard. “Rocket” stays busy on top with punches, and fights off a triangle choke attempt from Smith. Although the former title challenger attempts a few elbows while he has his back flat on the floor, Rakic’s strikes are more frequent and likely more impactful. Rakic keeps grinding him and is well out submission danger as precious seconds tick off the clock for Smith. “Lionheart” tries to push away with his toes in the fence, and Dean admonishes him for it, halting Smith from using the technique to turn around or attempt a submission. Smith manages to sit up as Rakic pounds on him, and there is no way up to his feet for Smith until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic

Round 3
Rakic re-introduces himself in the round with a devastating leg kick, and Smith is already compromised. Rakic cracks him with a head kick and a few punches, and Smith is wobbling around the cage on baby deer legs. “Rocket” blasts in and knees him in the face, battering Smith against the fence. Smith tries to tie him up and take him down, and Rakic muscles him over and plants Smith on his back again. Dean asks for Rakic to work, as Rakic is just occasionally landing left hands on top while Smith is trapped in an odd position against the wall and ground. Rakic lands a heavy punch when Smith gets to his knees, and he knees Smith in the body a couple times. The Austrian keeps his full body weight pressed on Smith as he traps the former title challenger in a grounded position. Dean reminds Rakic that he needs to work, so Rakic obliges with a slow but steady diet of knees to the thigh to keep from standing them up. Smith powers up to a crouch, but Rakic tosses him back down with minimal effort. For the umpteenth time, Dean recommends that Rakic keep working, and he lands a few short punches and knees to little effect. Smith kicks him off with 10 seconds to go, and Rakic walks away while the clock is still ticking left with his hands in the air; unfortunately for Smith, he is too fatigued to do anything about it. Rakic turns back to him, and shrugs him off as he knows Smith cannot reach him before the disappointing round – and fight – ends. If it's any consolation, there is another UFC card next week.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic (30-27 Rakic)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic (30-27 Rakic)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic (30-27 Rakic)

The Official Result
Aleksandar Rakic def. Anthony Smith via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Big Brady picks Rakić but thinks the line should be closer. He notes Rakić's superior striking volume and takedown defense, and expects him to win the first round strongly. He is concerned about Smith coming back too soon after a brutal beating, but acknowledges Smith's toughness and ability to take a shot. He predicts a decision win for Rakić.

"i think racket wins this i think he wins by i'm gonna go by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 29, 2020 (fight day)
Aleksandar Rakić

Daniel Levi leans with Rakić, citing that Rakić is fresher, has more room for improvement, and will likely hit Smith with hard shots to the body and chin. He acknowledges Smith's experience and ability to come back late if Rakić fades, but believes the timing is right for Rakić. He also notes that Rakić was dropped by Devin Clark twice, which raises durability concerns, but still favors him.

"i lean with rockets man i feel like you know he's a little bit fresher right now he's got more room to make improvements he's probably going to hit anthony with some hard [ __ ] to the body into …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 28, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Rakić is a strong wrestler with a top game that can crush Smith. Smith is good but not great at anything; Rakić should mix striking and grappling to control the fight. I expect a cautious approach leading to a decision win for Rakić, though the -275 line is a bit steep.

over 1.5 rounds -160
"i like rockets to win this fight i do think he gets it done via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 23, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The host picks Aleksandar Rakić because the fight is only three rounds. He believes Rakić will outrange Smith with kicks and win the first two rounds comfortably, then survive the third. He notes Smith's wide stance leaves him open to leg kicks and body kicks, and that Smith has taken recent damage. He thinks if it were five rounds, Smith would win, but in three rounds Rakić's striking advantage prevails.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go with alexander rakich going out there winning the first two rounds comfortably on the feet... i think rakic goes out there outranges smith outlands him"
LOSS vs Volkan Oezdemir
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · Dec 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Volkan Oezdemir 0 63 of 144 43% 118 of 199 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Aleksandar Rakić 0 75 of 147 51% 87 of 162 1 of 9 11% 1 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Volkan Oezdemir 0 12 of 39 30% 19 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Aleksandar Rakić 0 23 of 47 48% 24 of 49 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:47
2 Volkan Oezdemir 0 21 of 40 52% 42 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aleksandar Rakić 0 22 of 39 56% 28 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:31
3 Volkan Oezdemir 0 30 of 65 46% 57 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Aleksandar Rakić 0 30 of 61 49% 35 of 68 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Volkan Oezdemir 63 of 144 43% 28 of 105 14 of 18 21 of 21 47 of 122 16 of 22 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 75 of 147 51% 49 of 116 16 of 18 10 of 13 57 of 126 18 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Volkan Oezdemir 12 of 39 30% 4 of 30 2 of 3 6 of 6 8 of 32 4 of 7 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 23 of 47 48% 12 of 35 9 of 9 2 of 3 17 of 40 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Volkan Oezdemir 21 of 40 52% 6 of 23 4 of 6 11 of 11 17 of 35 4 of 5 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 22 of 39 56% 12 of 27 4 of 5 6 of 7 18 of 34 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Volkan Oezdemir 30 of 65 46% 18 of 52 8 of 9 4 of 4 22 of 55 8 of 10 0 of 0
Aleksandar Rakić 30 of 61 49% 25 of 54 3 of 4 2 of 3 22 of 52 8 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Volkan Oezdemir vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Round 1
Rakic comes out with power punches immediately before transitioning to a guillotine. He puts on the squeeze for a few seconds before Oezdemir escapes. They continue to jockey for position against the fence. Both men swing wildly on the break. A hard body kick lands for Rakic, but Oezdemir pressures, swinging heavy leather. Nothing connects. A short left lands for Oezdemir. Oezdemir moves in but he is countered by Rakic. Rakic goes low for a single leg, dodges a punch and trips the Swiss fighter to the canvas. Rakic maintains a body lock as Oezdemir returns to his feet. Rakic presses Oezdmir into the fence and absorbs some elbows to the side of the head. Oezdemir lands a knee and they separate with heavy punches. Rakic lands an uppercut-left hook combination. The light heavyweights trade low kicks. A right from Rakic counters an Oezdemir flying knee and the round ends. 10-9 Rakic.

Round 2
Oezdemir with a hard low kick to begin. Rakic answers with one of his own. A right hand snaps Oezdemir’s head back. Rakic has some unusual swelling below the knee on his left leg as a result of the low kicks. Rakic throws a left high kick that lands on the chest of his opponent. Raick with a glancing right hand and then he tries for a single leg, attacking with punches as Oezdemir attempts to escape. Rakic presses Oezdemir into the fence and Oezdemir lands some elbows to the side of the head. Rakic lands a short right hook on the break. Rakic catches a low kick, but he can’t do anything with it as Oezdemir demonstrates good balance. Rakic jabs and avoids the follow-up offering from Oezdemir. Oezdemir kicks at the leg of Rakic again. Rakic with an inside leg kick. Oezdemir steps in with a punch to the body. Oezdemir taunts Rakic with hands open, but Rakic doesn’t engage in a brawl at the end of the frame. 10-9 Rakic.

Round 3
Rakic lands an uppercut in an exchange. Rakic counters with his back to the fence and then secures a body lock. The Austrian presses Oezdemir into the cage. The light heavyweights trade big punches on the break. Another low kick from Oezdemir. Rakic lands a left jab. A right uppercut momentarily backs up Oezdemir. Rakic tries for a takedown but Oezdemir shrugs him off. A short left hook is clean for Rakic. Rakic jabs to the body and then throws a right hand. Oezdemir ties up his foe and lands an uppercut and knee in close. Rakic lands a right and Oezdemir nods him on. Rakic blocks a high kick. Rakic changes levels but Oezdemir defends the takedown, landing elbows with his back to the fence. Rakic hangs on as time winds dow. Oezdemir lands some more short elbows and they separate before the horn. 10-9 Rakic (30-27 Rakic).

The Official Result
Volkan Oezdemir def. Aleksandar Rakic via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiri Prochazka as the underdog, citing his relentless pressure and chaos. He notes Rakic is the more technical striker but has been out for two years and doesn't like brawls. He likes the +110 odds as juicy but may not bet due to conservatism.

Odds comment: +110 is juicy
"plus 110 Jerry is the underdog those odds seem juicy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Cody is confused why Rakić is a slight favorite. He lists many red flags for Rakić: a near 2-year layoff, coming off a leg injury, low volume, and unimpressive performances even before the injury. In contrast, Procházka is a former champion with dynamic striking, power, and a samurai mentality. Cody notes Procházka has a fifth-round submission win over Glover Teixeira and can wrestle if needed. He believes Procházka's pressure and power will overwhelm Rakić, who tends to avoid fighting. Cody picks Procházka as the underdog.

"I'm actually confused on this one I don't know why it's even money... got to go with yri."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka because his willingness to create chaos and take risks is valuable at light heavyweight. He contrasts Procházka's creative, reckless style with Rakić's neurotically technical, restrained approach. Connor argues that Procházka's ability to scramble and make fights uncontrollable will overcome Rakić's grinding, as Rakić has not faced someone with Procházka's level of unpredictability.

Odds: Procházka opened -100, now -103; Rakić opened -128, now -107. Connor notes the odds are dead even.
"I am going to pick Jiri Prashaska because I think despite the immense risk inherent to his game, that is a very valuable thing to have in MMA in general at light heavyweight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Daniel Vreeland picks Jiří Procházka as a slight underdog, citing his chaotic, unpredictable style and ability to force opponents into brawls. He acknowledges Rakić's athleticism and leg kicks but believes Procházka's offensive juggernaut approach and durability will lead to a finish. Vreeland notes that Procházka has been knocked out but expects him to make it wild and catch Rakić.

"I'm gonna go with the former champ Jiří Procházka"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says he is excited to see how Jiří Procházka bounces back from his loss. He does not provide a prediction.

"Jiří versus Rakić I'm excited to see how Jiří bounces back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Rakić will drag the fight to the ground where he can have success from top position. Procházka has struggled with opponents on top. Rakić will chain wrestling attempts and keep Procházka on his back, grinding out a decision win.

decision
"I think we'll see rage utilize that wrestling chain those wrestling attempts and then eventually keep rasa muzzled on his back and grind this fight out over 15 minutes winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Procházka. He notes that if it turns into an absolute fight, Procházka's pace and volume will be too much for Rakić, as seen in Procházka's fight with Dominick Reyes where he landed 77 significant strikes before a early third-round finish. Paul acknowledges both fighters have red flags (layoffs, injuries), but Rakić has been on the shelf longer and has bigger question marks. He emphasizes Procházka's samurai mentality and believes he will bring the fight to Rakić.

"I'm with I'm on Yuri as well... if it turns into an absolute fight you want Yuri."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

The MMA Guru picks Aleksandar Rakić to defeat Jiří Procházka by targeting his lead leg with low kicks. He notes Procházka's weakness against leg kicks and that Rakić is comfortable backpedaling. He also mentions Rakić may mix in takedowns and predicts a finish or decision.

"Alexander rakic is going to chew up that lead leg of Yuri prasa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Aleksandar Rakić

Zane picks Rakić despite hating his fighting style. He believes Rakić will land leg kicks, take Procházka down, and grind out a win over three rounds. He notes Procházka's wildness could turn the fight, but Rakić's durability and grinding approach should prevail. Zane is hedging because he wants Procházka to win but feels Rakić is the safer bet.

Odds: Rakić opened -128, now -107; Procházka opened -100, now -103. Zane mentions the fight is dead even in odds.
"My feel bad vibe is that I'm going to take Alexander Rocketch. I think he's going to land a lot of leg kicks. I think Proshaska is going to start lunging in and getting really aggressive. And Rocketch is going to take him down."