Aljamain Sterling vs Calvin Kattar

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	46 of 89	51%	220 of 293	6 of 11	54%	1	0	13:49
Youssef Zalal	0	35 of 65	53%	61 of 97	0 of 0	---	1	0	3:59

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	0	8 of 24	33%	15 of 31	1 of 2	50%	0	0	2:19
Youssef Zalal	0	4 of 16	25%	17 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	0	15 of 29	51%	67 of 88	1 of 3	33%	0	0	2:25
Youssef Zalal	0	15 of 23	65%	16 of 24	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Aljamain Sterling	0	2 of 3	66%	11 of 14	2 of 2	100%	0	0	0:47
Youssef Zalal	0	3 of 4	75%	4 of 6	0 of 0	---	1	0	3:48
4	Aljamain Sterling	0	16 of 22	72%	81 of 101	1 of 2	50%	1	0	4:16
Youssef Zalal	0	3 of 4	75%	3 of 4	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:11
5	Aljamain Sterling	0	5 of 11	45%	46 of 59	1 of 2	50%	0	0	4:02
Youssef Zalal	0	10 of 18	55%	21 of 30	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	46 of 89	51%	25 of 56	12 of 16	9 of 17	25 of 59	15 of 22	6 of 8
Youssef Zalal	35 of 65	53%	25 of 51	6 of 7	4 of 7	32 of 62	3 of 3	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 24	33%	5 of 14	2 of 3	1 of 7	5 of 19	0 of 1	3 of 4
Youssef Zalal	4 of 16	25%	3 of 11	0 of 1	1 of 4	4 of 16	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	15 of 29	51%	6 of 17	5 of 6	4 of 6	10 of 23	5 of 6	0 of 0
Youssef Zalal	15 of 23	65%	11 of 19	2 of 2	2 of 2	15 of 23	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 3	66%	1 of 2	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 2	0 of 0
Youssef Zalal	3 of 4	75%	2 of 3	0 of 0	1 of 1	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Aljamain Sterling	16 of 22	72%	9 of 13	4 of 6	3 of 3	6 of 9	8 of 11	2 of 2
Youssef Zalal	3 of 4	75%	1 of 2	2 of 2	0 of 0	1 of 2	2 of 2	0 of 0
5	Aljamain Sterling	5 of 11	45%	4 of 10	0 of 0	1 of 1	3 of 7	1 of 2	1 of 2
Youssef Zalal	10 of 18	55%	8 of 16	2 of 2	0 of 0	9 of 17	1 of 1	0 of 0

Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-160); Sterling (+135)

Round 1
Say what we will about UFC card structure and matchmaking as of late, Sterling (25-5, 17-5 UFC) vs. Zalal (18-5-1, 8-3-1 UFC) is a dope matchup. We’ll let them do the talking from here, as referee Herb Dean handles the particulars and draws out a glove touch. It’s time for a featherweight main event.
The two bounce towards and measure one another, with Sterling the one advancing and throwing the majority of the offense early on. Zalal counters with a sharp left hand, and he keeps his jab outstretched. Sterling offers up a number of kicks, missing on several of them. He catches up to “The Moroccan Devil” with a reaching right hand, but it is one-and-done. Sterling circles from side to side while Zalal aims jabs at him, and he shoots in for a single and lifts one of his foe’s legs in the air.
Sterling transitions to a body lock, and when he does not get as Zalal circles out, Sterling trips him up on the way out. Zalal gathers himself easily enough and is about to leap at Sterling with a knee, but Sterling kicks his plant leg out from beneath him to race on top and establish top control. Sterling advances to half guard fairly comfortably while Zalal bops him in either side of the head with his free left fist, and he offers a few elbows off his back as well. Zalal keeps attacking until he can suddenly throw his legs up for a potential armbar. Sterling sits up and takes a breath to calm himself, not twisting or wriggling to put himself further in danger. The former champ works out of it and repositions himself back into half guard. Zalal goes for the triangle again, shoving Sterling back a smidge with an upkick to the chest. Before Zalal can stand, Sterling leaps on top of him and drives knees and elbows to the side until five minutes are up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
There is a quick glove touch to get started, and Sterling winds up behind two powerful low kicks. Zalal quickly rushes back to circle away from the impact of those kicks, putting his back to the wall and exposing himself for the takedown that comes naturally from the former champ. Sterling considers a single but threatens with a body lock and lets go to scores a few punches. Zalal tries to time him on the way out but is out of range. He does chase Sterling down behind his fists, and he knees Sterling square in the beard. Sterling no-sells it like The Great Antonio against Antonio Inoki and puts the pressure on his foe. Zalal circles and drives home a right hand on the side of the dome. Both men take downs advancing, finding their way to attack and disengaging when it does not fully work. Sterling drops down for a single when pushing Zalal to the fencing, and he stands Zalal up with a couple of big punches on the break.
Zalal tries for another knee, and he wades back as Sterling lunges at him with long, winding hooks. Zalal’s jab is much straighter and quicker, ringing up Sterling a few times and forcing the former champ to try more unorthodox approaches like off-balance punches and oddly timed shots. Zalal spins to complete a back fist, and Sterling ducks it and tackles Zalal to the floor. Sterling hooks his legs around the waist to lock down a body triangle, where he postures up to hammer Zalal with punches to both sides of the head. Zalal turns all the way to give up his back, briefly breaking the body lock but unable to escape from the punches and hammerfists consistently raining down on him. Sterling bludgeons Zalal with well over a dozen unanswered strikes until Zalal turns away and tries to protect his neck. Sterling reasserts his dominant position when they both sit up, with his rapping his left hand around the guard again and again until the round is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 3
Zalal lands a low kick and immediately has to back off, with Sterling quick to corner him aiming body shots and pump-faking his hips. Sterling catches a knee on the chin and drives through to get hold of a single, bringing Zalal to a knee with his foe’s side against the fencing. When Zalal stands back up, he wraps up a guillotine choke, only for Sterling to scoop him up and deposit him gingerly down like a parent putting their young child on a diaper changing table in a public restroom. Zalal’s choke suddenly grows much tighter as Sterling finds himself in submission danger, but like before, the calm, cool cucumber that is the former champion moves just enough to relieve the tension on his throat and free himself. Zalal does establish himself on top after letting the choke go, but Sterling’s scrambles defend him from much of the ground-and-pound.
Sterling looks to push off the hips with butterfly hooks, switching suddenly to wrap up a partial triangle choke. When Zalal stands up to free his neck from the choke setup, Sterling belts him in the face with a crisp upkick. Zalal nods in approval and lowers himself back into the guard uncontested, where he maneuvers himself into side control and takes the back when Sterling scrambles. Zalal ties up a body triangle when he assumes back control, and Sterling sits up and defends his neck from any chokes coming his way. Zalal clings to his adversary but cannot isolate the neck, although his control ability and time sends a clear message. When Sterling gets to one knee, the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal

Round 4
Sterling walks down Zalal as soon as the round begins, slugging him with several right hands and slinging numerous leg kicks. Zalal’s reaction changes and his body language gets worse as Sterling keeps battering his leg with powerful kicks. Sterling closes in and grabs Zalal from behind, rolling him to the mat and completing the body triangle less than a minute into the round. Sterling softens Zalal up with a steady stream of strong left hands, trapping Zalal with his arm on the other side. Sterling holds his choke arm very closely to under the chin, and Zalal motions that he is thinking about tapping but does not give up. Sterling cinches the forearm under the chin, and he has Zalal’s left arm trapped in the submission so he cannot quite finish it. Zalal grimaces and toughs it out as best he can, rolling over to his stomach to reduce the pressure.
Sterling yanks him back over and has the body triangle just as frustratingly tight as ever. Zalal turns to try to break up the body lock, and he is constantly absorbing strike after unanswered strike. Zalal rolls to his back, with Sterling fully in mount, and it is Sterling who holds on with an arm-triangle choke. The former champ decides not to lock it down so he can bash Zalal in the face again and again. Zalal somehow fights out of the body lock and wills himself back to his feet, but he is under fire immediately as Sterling tears into him with body shots, knees and a few elbows. As he beats down Zalal against the wall, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Sterling

Round 5
Although Zalal initially comes out aggressively in the final frame, Sterling shuts him down before long with pressure and the threat of a looming takedown. Zalal ignores his concerns and lets his hands go, connecting squarely with a few punches to drive Sterling back. Sterling knows that his best path to victory is through his grappling, and he engages it. Pressing Zalal to the fencing, Sterling hunts for a single and transitions to a body lock with an outside trip. Zalal remains upright but is being controlled as precious seconds tick off the clock. Zalal pushes off at the midpoint of the round, and he throws once before Sterling is on him like a cheap suit.
Sterling swings like a Tasmanian devil, a veritable cloud of feet and fists surrounding him as he smashes directly into Zalal. Sterling’s strikes open up the takedown, which he completes and takes the wind out of the younger man’s sails. When Zalal turns, he exposes himself to the back take magician. Unsurprisingly, Sterling gladly secures back control with his body triangle locked down, and he starts railing Zalal with his left hand en masse. Zalal turns to take the sting out of it, and Sterling follows him and sticks his tongue out while grinning and nodding. Zalal turns to try to brawl while on the mat, and when he sits up, Sterling bludgeons, batters and bruises him with double axe handle smashes and Sakuraba-esque double punches. The moment the final horn blares, Sterling disengages, and he pumps his arms in the air certain that the victory is likely moments away.
The former training partners share plenty of laughs and good spirits after 25 minutes of combat. The victorious Sterling praises Zalal, suggesting that Zalal could fight for a title in the future. Until that happens, Sterling believes it is his time at 145 pounds. He asks for another fight against Movsar Evloev, while saying that he is also coming for champion Alexander Volkanovski. If that latter fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (49-45 Sterling)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (49-45 Sterling)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (49-45 Sterling)

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Youssef Zalal via Unanimous Decision (49-45, 49-45, 49-45)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo leans on Aljamain Sterling, citing his five-round experience and wrestling edge. He acknowledges that Youssef Zalal is the better striker but believes Sterling's wrestling will be superior, referencing Sterling's performance against Movsar Evloev. He notes that Sterling opened as a favorite but is now an underdog, and he encourages rewatching the Evloev fight to see Sterling's scrambling ability.

"I'm going to lean Aljo. I think the five round experience, I think the wrestling edge, I think all of that works for Aljo here."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

Big Brady picks Youssef Zalal over Aljamain Sterling. He notes Zalal's recent improvements and finishing ability, and believes Zalal's cardio and pace will be advantages in a five-round fight. He thinks Sterling may slow down as the fight progresses, and predicts Zalal wins by decision.

Zalal wins by decision

"Give me Youssef Zalal to win. Youssef Zalal to win by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Youssef Zalal

The host leans Zalal due to his output, aggression, pace, and volume, plus Sterling's decline and lack of power. However, he admits it's impossible to form a strong opinion because Zalal hasn't faced a wrestler like Sterling in years. He calls the odds fair coin-flip territory and passes on betting.

Easy pass; no prop bets mentioned

"Gun to my head, I would lean Zalal because you know, I really like his output, his aggression, you know, his pace, his volume."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

James picks Youssef Zalal based on stylistic matchup, believing Zalal's footwork and striking will cause problems for Sterling. He notes Zalal's recent improvements and age advantage, and predicts a finish inside the distance as Sterling gets desperate with takedowns.

inside the distance (KO or submission)

"I am picking Ysef Salah. ... I'm confident in Ysef Salah."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

Zalal is on an eight-fight winning streak with improved wrestling and submission defense. Sterling is a former champion but is 36 and has a questionable gas tank. Zalal should be able to defend Sterling's grappling, use his striking edge, and win a decision. He is the younger, more confident fighter with momentum.

"I think Zal has good enough submission defense to not get finished. And then I think as we get into deeper water, Zal will stay squirmy enough to keep Sterling away from getting those uh large amounts of times of …"

MMA Lock of the Night

WIN vs Brian Ortega

Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	55 of 174	31%	100 of 225	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:08
Brian Ortega	0	124 of 227	54%	153 of 262	3 of 6	50%	0	0	3:55

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 28	7%	2 of 28	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Brian Ortega	27 of 44	61%	27 of 44	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	9 of 40	22%	9 of 40	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Brian Ortega	13 of 54	24%	13 of 54	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Aljamain Sterling	21 of 42	50%	21 of 42	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Brian Ortega	35 of 52	67%	35 of 52	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Aljamain Sterling	13 of 37	35%	29 of 55	0 of 0	---	0:02
4	Brian Ortega	25 of 39	64%	35 of 49	1 of 1	100%	1:36
5	Aljamain Sterling	10 of 27	37%	39 of 60	0 of 1	0%	0:06
5	Brian Ortega	24 of 38	63%	43 of 63	2 of 4	50%	2:19

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	55 of 174	31%	30 of 138	20 of 29	5 of 7	54 of 173	0 of 0	1 of 1
Brian Ortega	124 of 227	54%	77 of 175	21 of 26	26 of 26	100 of 198	7 of 7	17 of 22

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 28	7%	2 of 25	0 of 2	0 of 1	2 of 28	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Brian Ortega	27 of 44	61%	16 of 32	3 of 4	8 of 8	27 of 44	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	9 of 40	22%	5 of 33	4 of 6	0 of 1	9 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Brian Ortega	13 of 54	24%	6 of 44	1 of 4	6 of 6	12 of 53	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	21 of 42	50%	8 of 27	8 of 10	5 of 5	21 of 42	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Brian Ortega	35 of 52	67%	25 of 42	2 of 2	8 of 8	34 of 51	1 of 1	0 of 0
4	Aljamain Sterling	13 of 37	35%	8 of 29	5 of 8	0 of 0	12 of 36	0 of 0	1 of 1
4	Brian Ortega	25 of 39	64%	13 of 26	9 of 10	3 of 3	16 of 30	3 of 3	6 of 6
5	Aljamain Sterling	10 of 27	37%	7 of 24	3 of 3	0 of 0	10 of 27	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Brian Ortega	24 of 38	63%	17 of 31	6 of 6	1 of 1	11 of 20	2 of 2	11 of 16

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Brian Ortega vs. Aljamain Sterling

Round 1
On merit and divisional relevance, this probably should have been the main event, but that divisional relevance was obliterated by Ortega’s weight cut failure, leading to a 153-pound catchweight affair. It’s still a hell of a fight, however, and when the featherweight contenders go to work, Herb Dean will be tasked with his final referee assignment of the event. Both men are in orthodox stance to open things up, and both come up short with reaching jabs in the first exchanges. Ortega goes southpaw. Thirty seconds in, Sterling feints his first level change, but no takedown attempt follows. Sterling throws a one-two that Ortega slips by pulling his head straight back, then nearly spills him with a nicely timed low kick. Sterling lands a pair of glancing punches and easily eludes the counter. Ortega is barely throwing anything back thus far in the fight. As I type that, he launches a blistering right cross that comes up just barely short. Two minutes left in the first round and Sterling lands another solid low kick—an investment in attrition, especially if this goes into the scheduled fourth and fifth rounds. Sterling with another chopping low kick that lands high on the calf. With under 30 seconds to go, it’s been all Sterling, but Ortega comes forward and lands his best punch of the round before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 2
Sterling is busy with the jab right away. Ortega throws a high kick that Sterling evades by slipping his head off the center line. Sterling is methodical, coming forward with his jab and cross, nailing Ortega with a calf kick anytime he stands his ground. It isn’t dazzling but it’s brutally effective, as Ortega is throwing next to nothing, aside from single big shots. Sterling tries a spinning backfist that glances without damage. Ortega takes the front foot midway through the round, backing up the former bantamweight champ and throwing righty haymakers. Sterling gives ground, keeps his chin out of range and keeps working on the lead leg. Sterling catches Ortega with a sweeping right hook and Ortega backs off, pawing at his left eye. Sterling looks at the referee, who states that it was a punch, not a finger, and indicates that they should keep fighting. They do not do so immediately, Sterling does not press the issue, and the result is effectively a 45-second timeout after no foul. Once they resume fighting, the round ends without any more substantive offense from either man.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 3
Sterling has to walk two-thirds of the way across the Octagon in order to touch gloves with Ortega; a decent metaphor for this fight in general. Ortega comes forward, snapping out his jab, and tags Sterling with a low kick. Ortega fires off another kick, this one clattering audibly off of Sterling’s cup, but Sterling waves off any intervention by Dean. Sterling continues to give ground in the face of Ortega’s advance, but is still landing more and better strikes. Ortega gets through with another good leg kick, and Sterling catches his next one, hoisting the kicking leg and punching him before letting go. Sterling snaps Ortega’s head back with a jab, then sits him down with a calf kick. Ortega pops back to his feet and lands a good low kick of his own. Sterling steps forward and connects with a long jab. Ortega marches Sterling to the fence but can’t capitalize before he slips out the side. Under a minute to go and Ortega is definitely the aggressor, but that shouldn’t be enough to win the round in the face of the disparity in offense. Ortega catches a kick but can’t land anything of consequence. Ortega fires off a stream of punches at the clapper, but it’s Sterling who connects with a spinning back elbow.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 4
The fourth round begins with Ortega down three to zero on our scorecard, but showing signs of life at the end of the last frame. “T-City” keeps up the pressure, stalking Sterling and trying to back him into the fence. Sterling continues to give ground, but he is still the one landing more and harder strikes. Ortega finally corrals him against the cage, but Sterling slips a couple of haymakers and makes his way back to open space. Two minutes into the round, Ortega is game but still a step behind, as he has been for essentially the entire fight. Sterling snaps his head back with a jab, then delivers another kick to Ortega’s battered left calf. Ortega makes things interesting, swarming forward, catching Sterling against the fence and throwing a flurry of punches with both hands. Many of them glance, but enough of them land that Sterling has to cover and back off. Ortega clinches with him against the fence, and Sterling dumps him to the canvas a moment later, settling in the jiu-jitsu ace’s full guard. Sterling is defensively sound and heavy on top, keeping his posture low while throwing short punches and looking to pass the guard. He postures up and drops a couple of punches and elbows before the horn.
10-9 Sterling.

Round 5
Ortega gets the now-or-never pep talk from his corner before the final round, and comes out hot. Sterling meets him with yet another hard low kick, but he’s forced to retreat in the face of Ortega’s attack. Ortega catches Sterling with a wide hook, his best punch of the fight, and Sterling backs off. Ortega initiates a takedown, but Sterling lands in top position, in Ortega’s full guard. Sterling postures up to look for ground strikes, then stand up out of the guard, and as Ortega gets up, Sterling catches him with a timed, but legal, knee to the dome. Ortega gets to his feet and catches Sterling with a right hand that hurts him. Sterling is in retreat, trying to recover and evade further damage as Ortega gives chase. He avoids the follow-up, but the strategy is so obvious that he draws a warning from Dean for timidity. Ortega crashes the pocket and clinches, but as the go down, it’s Sterling who takes Ortega’s back. Sterling sinks his hooks in and looks for a choke, but Ortega sweeps to top position. Sterling sweeps him right back and throws leather from guard until the horn.
10-9 Sterling (50-45 Sterling).

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Brian Ortega via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo is extremely confident in Aljamain Sterling, calling him a backpack grappler with developed striking and spectacular ground game. He dismisses Brian Ortega as not very good anymore, relying only on toughness. He expects Sterling to get takedowns and dominate on the ground, likely by decision due to Ortega's toughness. He says this is one of his most confident picks on the card.

"Almaine Sterling, I think, absolutely rolls here. One of my most confident picks on this fight card."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Big Brady picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Sterling's minute-winning ability on the feet and slick grappling. He notes that Sterling throws high volume and can take Ortega down, though he must watch for submissions. He believes Ortega is dangerous but hittable, and that Sterling will control the fight and win a decision.

Sterling by decision

"I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Connor notes that Brian Ortega's game has disintegrated; he used to rely on durability but now gets hurt early in fights. He highlights that Ortega is a guard grappler but hasn't gotten a guard submission since 2017, and his wrestling is an afterthought. Sterling, on the other hand, is a much better wrestler who can dictate grappling exchanges and pile up volume on the feet. Connor is curious to see how Sterling handles Ortega's guard, but believes Sterling's positional grappling will keep him on top.

Odds: Sterling opened -300, now -275; Ortega opened +250, now +235.

"I just have to trust sterling. He's going to get on top of him and make his life hell."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The host sees this as a fun grappling matchup, but thinks Sterling's advantage in wrestling and control will shut down Ortega's aggressive BJJ. He expects Sterling to grind out a boring fight and win on the scorecards.

"I think Sterling's advantage in the wrestling realm and control should help him shut down the aggressive BJJ nature of Ortega's game and allow Sterling to grind this fight out probably in a boring matchup. And I think that will …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win by decision, citing Ortega's poor weight cut and zombie-like appearance at weigh-ins. He believes Sterling is more disciplined and professional, with better wrestling and positional grappling. He notes that Sterling can avoid Ortega's submission threats by pushing him against the cage and working from the back. He also thinks Sterling will do well on the feet, as Ortega has looked lost there at times.

Aljamain Sterling by decision 29-28

"I'm going to have to go with Almaine Sterling. More disciplined, more professional... I think Aljo is going to score this win over Brian Ortega."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Zane agrees that Sterling is the pick, citing Ortega's decline and the fact that he gets hurt in every fight now. He points out that Ortega's entire career has been about absorbing damage, and that Sterling's wrestling and speed will give Ortega problems. Zane also notes that Sterling has never faced a guard grappler like Ortega, but believes Sterling's mindful positional grappling will avoid spending much time in Ortega's guard.

"I just have to trust sterling. He's going to get on top of him and make his life hell."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Movsar Evloev

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Movsar Evloev	0	8 of 26	30%	136 of 165	4 of 5	80%	0	1	6:09
Aljamain Sterling	0	12 of 26	46%	45 of 67	6 of 8	75%	0	2	6:16

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Movsar Evloev	1 of 6	16%	16 of 26	1 of 1	100%	0	0:55
1	Aljamain Sterling	3 of 11	27%	7 of 18	2 of 2	100%	0	2:49
2	Movsar Evloev	3 of 9	33%	48 of 58	2 of 2	100%	0	3:25
2	Aljamain Sterling	5 of 8	62%	25 of 30	1 of 3	33%	2	0:48
3	Movsar Evloev	4 of 11	36%	72 of 81	1 of 2	50%	1	1:49
3	Aljamain Sterling	4 of 7	57%	13 of 19	3 of 3	100%	0	2:39

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Movsar Evloev	8 of 26	30%	6 of 23	1 of 1	1 of 2	6 of 22	0 of 1	2 of 3
Aljamain Sterling	12 of 26	46%	7 of 16	5 of 8	0 of 2	9 of 23	2 of 2	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Movsar Evloev	1 of 6	16%	0 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 2	1 of 5	0 of 1	0 of 0
1	Aljamain Sterling	3 of 11	27%	1 of 5	2 of 5	0 of 1	3 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Movsar Evloev	3 of 9	33%	2 of 8	1 of 1	0 of 0	3 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	5 of 8	62%	3 of 6	2 of 2	0 of 0	4 of 7	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Movsar Evloev	4 of 11	36%	4 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0	2 of 8	0 of 0	2 of 3
3	Aljamain Sterling	4 of 7	57%	3 of 5	1 of 1	0 of 1	2 of 5	1 of 1	1 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Evloev (-265), Sterling (+215)

Round 1
Surprising many paying attention, this likely featherweight title eliminator is situated firmly on the prelims despite several lower-ranked contests at 145 playing out later on the billing. Evloev (18-0, 8-0 UFC) is not complaining, as he noted—likely accurately at that—that more people will be watching the ESPN-broadcasted prelims than tuning into the paid portion later. Sterling (24-4, 16-4 UFC) is not buying it and feels disrespected by his promotion, but that is nothing unusual for him given his history at bantamweight. This potentially fascinating grappling match will play out under the oversight of referee Jason Herzog, and it opens up with a glove touch. Sterling stalks his way forward, jabbing his way in and kicking with the ball of his foot. Evloev hops out of the way from a body kick, and one to his lead leg lands. Sterling catches him at the end of a right hand, and the Russian shrugs it off. Evloev kicks the front leg, and Sterling tries to time a head kick when Evloev ducks. Sterling connects with another big right hand, and he shoots in and drags Evloev down to force Evloev to put his hands on the mat. Chants of “USA” boom through the arena, and Sterling channels this energy and knees Evloev hard in the side. Sterling hangs on from the side and nearly back, and he complains that Evloev is grabbing his glove. Evloev adjusts and scoots his way to the wall, with Sterling following him every scoot of the way. Sterling has his hands clasped around Evloev’s waist, and he gets in a hook to take the back. “Funk Master” slides the second hook in, and he holds on tight while trying to free his right hand to set something up. Sterling again mentions that his glove is being grabbed, and Evloev elbows behind him on either side. Evloev stands up, and Sterling is still wrapped around him. The former bantamweight king lifts Evloev off the ground and slams him down, and the ensuing scramble allows Evloev to take his back. Sterling ducks a strike and is taken to the floor, and he sets up a guillotine choke but is in the wrong angle to get it. Evloev turns the corner as Sterling sits up, and he lowers himself down and wraps Sterling up in a crucifix as he drops to his back. The close round ends with Sterling taking punches upside the head.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
Sterling is the initial aggressor in the second round, pushing out a front kick, dropping back to avoid a few punches and crashing through to put Evloev on his seat. Evloev scrambles well enough to get to 50/50 position, and he stands up as Sterling holds onto his single leg. Evloev flips him around and lowers himself down in side control, hooking his legs around Sterling’s arm to go for a crucifix. Evloev takes the back, but Sterling pulls his hook out and turns. Evloev lands a few hammerfists to the side of the head as Herzog says “ears” a few times to let Evloev know that he needs to aim for the ears and not hit the back of the head. Sterling explodes around to get out of harm, and he wraps up Evloev and tries to slam him down on his face in what would have been a pro wrestling-style move. Evloev does not fall victim to it, turning around to shoot for a single. Sterling stifles it and loads up on a right hand, and Evloev backs him off with a right hand and a kick. Evloev wings a spinning wheel kick, and when planting his foot, he drills “Funk Master” in the face with a strong right hand. The success of the strike allows the Russian to shoot in and put Sterling on his back. Evloev looks to assert himself in half guard, even briefly considering an arm-triangle choke only to get elbowed in the side of the head a few times. Evloev takes Sterling’s back, and Sterling does not appear concern and instead scrambles out of it without much concern. Evloev again sets up a crucifix, and Sterling counters with a single and briefly gets top position. This back-and-forth grappling match is living up to the hype, and Sterling pursues a double when Evloev gets away. The horn sounds with Sterling in the midst of the shot.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Evloev

Round 3
Having reached the final round, both men clap hands. Sterling flashes out a front kick and a long jab, and he is able to escape the lunging Evloev from landing on him. Sterling ducks a big punch and gets off an uppercut, and he dips down low to evade a spinning back fist and tackles the Russian to the floor. Evloev returns to a knee, and Sterling remains busy pursuing the takedown. Evloev wraps an arm around Sterling’s head, and Sterling takes advantage of this by slinging Evloev down on his face. Evloev pushes off the floor to stand, and Sterling is leaning on him imposing his will while the crowd is in full support of the American. Sterling jams Evloev against the fence, allowing Evloev to knee him so he can move around to partially take Evloev’s back standing. Sterling drags Evloev to the floor, and as they slide around in a furious series of scrambles, Evloev flips his man over and resides on top. Evloev slugs Sterling in the chops a few times while they are both seated, and Sterling explodes back to his feet. Evloev whips Sterling around and back down, and he gets one hook in but is dropped on his head. Sterling does not escape the downed position, on both knees as Evloev punches him on the side of the head. Evloev turns Sterling to his back, and he opens up with punches. Sterling gets his hooks in and briefly holds the back, and when he scrambles, Evloev hooks his leg around Sterling’s shoulder. The final bell sounds while the two are in the midst of grappling, and it could be anyone’s game.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)

The Official Result
Movsar Evloev def. Aljamain Sterling via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)

Movsar Evloev

Angelo picks Movsar Evloev confidently, stating Evloev is a better wrestler than Sterling and has superior striking. He dismisses Sterling's unorthodox striking as not intentionally effective. Angelo believes Evloev will take Sterling down at will and control the fight, similar to how he beat Arnold Allen. He expects a dominant performance.

"mosar EV have just absolutely mogs this dude just takes him down whenever he wants to"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Cody picks Sterling as a live underdog, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes Sterling's wins over top competition and believes his volume and back-taking ability will trouble Evloev. He expects a decision win for Sterling.

Sterling by decision; Fight goes to distance

"I will take Aljamain Sterling... plus 220, I think you can do a lot worse."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Connor picks Sterling because he believes Sterling has more tools to win if he can keep Evloev from wrestling. He notes that Evloev's pressure-based style can be shut down, and that Sterling's high-output striking and grappling are well-suited to a three-round fight. Connor also points out that Evloev has been walking a fine line and has been hurt in fights, while Sterling has shown improvement in his striking. He acknowledges that Sterling's cardio could be an issue but thinks over three rounds it might be enough.

Connor notes the odds: Sterling opened at +187, now +222; Evloev opened at -216, now -267.

"I'm gonna pick aljo here because I also think honestly that evil oev has been walking a pretty fine line himself."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Movsar Evloev

Daniel believes Evloev is ahead in every area, with better grappling and striking. He criticizes Sterling's cardio, striking technique, and takedown entries. He notes Evloev's ability to survive submission attempts and his punching power, citing damage done to Arnold Allen.

"I think that Evov is just simply ahead of him in every area of MMA."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Movsar Evloev

Evloev's grappling ability and scrambling will keep him out of bad positions from Sterling. He can remain in dominant position or use defensive grappling to stay upright and touch up Sterling, who doesn't look comfortable striking. Evloev will put together a good body of work through grappling and striking to win on the scorecards.

"I do believe Viv lv's grappling ability and scrambling will keep him out of too many bad position from Sterling"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Paul picks Sterling, calling it a lock. He highlights Sterling's technical skills, wrestling, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Evloev's takedowns won't be as effective and Sterling's striking advantage will be key. He expects a decision win.

Fight goes to distance

"I like Aljamain Sterling... it's a lock it in."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Movsar Evloev

The MMA Guru picks Evloev, believing he is too much for Sterling on the feet. He notes Evloev's improved standup, quicker punches, and ability to mix in takedowns. He trusts Evloev to win close rounds by shooting takedowns in the last 30 seconds to sway judges. He predicts a 29-27 decision with all rounds competitive.

"I'm gonna go with mzar evloev over aljamain Sterling"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Movsar Evloev

Zane picks Evloev, citing that he does not fully trust Sterling as a featherweight. He notes that Sterling's style, which relies on volume and wrestling, may not work against a bigger, aggressive grappler like Evloev. Zane points out that Evloev has shown he can handle high-level grappling, as seen in his fight with Diego Lopez, and that Sterling has a history of gassing. He also mentions that Sterling has never faced a fighter like Evloev who is eager to grapple and pressure.

"I'm gonna take you of loiv. I I do not fully trust aljo as a featherweight still."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Calvin Kattar

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	8 of 29	27%	19 of 40	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
Calvin Kattar	0	39 of 71	54%	89 of 128	8 of 13	61%	0	0	10:43

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 23	26%	10 of 27	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Calvin Kattar	15 of 33	45%	16 of 35	4 of 7	57%	1:51
2	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 5	40%	4 of 7	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Calvin Kattar	14 of 20	70%	30 of 37	2 of 3	66%	4:10
3	Aljamain Sterling	0 of 1	0%	5 of 6	0 of 0	---	0:05
3	Calvin Kattar	10 of 18	55%	43 of 56	2 of 3	66%	4:42

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	8 of 29	27%	7 of 26	1 of 3	0 of 0	7 of 26	1 of 2	0 of 1
Calvin Kattar	39 of 71	54%	12 of 40	15 of 17	12 of 14	23 of 46	5 of 5	11 of 20

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 23	26%	6 of 21	0 of 2	0 of 0	5 of 20	1 of 2	0 of 1
1	Calvin Kattar	15 of 33	45%	4 of 20	3 of 4	8 of 9	12 of 27	1 of 1	2 of 5
2	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 5	40%	1 of 4	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	14 of 20	70%	4 of 9	7 of 8	3 of 3	9 of 15	4 of 4	1 of 1
3	Aljamain Sterling	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Calvin Kattar	10 of 18	55%	4 of 11	5 of 5	1 of 2	2 of 4	0 of 0	8 of 14

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-170), Kattar (+142)

Round 1
The storied rivalry of Boston vs. New York continues with a featherweight contest pitting “The Boston Finisher” Kattar (23-7, 7-5 UFC) against former bantamweight champ Sterling (23-9, 14-4 UFC). This will be a sink-or-swim moment for the New York-based funk-style wrestler, as he jumps into the deep end in his new weight class. The fighters will have 15 minutes or less to prove their case as contenders at 145 pounds, while referee Jason Herzog watches over every step of the way. Fists are not bumped, and instead Sterling wants to crowd forward and start attacking. Sterling reaches out with side kicks to the knee, and Kattar skirts out of the way a few times to take the sting out of them. Sterling wings a right hand that catches his foe on the side of the head, and Kattar stands form and moves away to check a low kick and push out his own jab. Kattar whips a head kick up and nearly clears the shoulder, but Sterling pushes past it and tries to tie him up. Kattar tosses him aside and slowly walks him down. Sterling fakes dropping down for a leg, and he fires off two wide hooks. A high kick from Sterling misses the mark, but several low kicks connect in succession. Sterling continues chipping away from afar with low kicks or the occasional one to the body, and he keeps Kattar from doing much. Sterling shoots in for a single, lifting Kattar’s leg up, but Kattar defends by scoring several punches up close. On Sterling’s second attempt, he leverages “The Boston Finisher” down to the canvas. Kattar pushes on the back of the head to stand back up, and Sterling lifts him off the ground to find a better angle to approach. Kattar leans with his back to the wall, and Sterling sneaks a single hook in as he methodically looks to take the back. Kattar muscles his way upright, and Sterling hits a quick mat return of sorts. Sterling wrenches Kattar all the way down to the ground, and he continues to set up his back take. Sterling ducks down, releasing the grip, so he can let loose a right hand over the top. Kattar sheds him, and he gets kicked in the ribs on the way out. Sterling pushes off his foe’s knee when Kattar advances, and he spins a spinning back fist as Kattar continues to walk him down. Sterling’s awkward movement and takedown efforts shut most of Kattar’s offense down, and Sterling manages to secure a single-leg takedown and climb on top to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
Sterling commences the round with a low kick, and he kicks the other side to trip Kattar up when Kattar tries to throw a punch. Sterling chains a head kick into a level change, and he backs Kattar to the wire and drives a knee to the chest. Sterling trips Kattar’s other leg up to sit him down, and the audience starts to boo Sterling’s efforts. Sterling has a single deep, and he appears to motion or nod to Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg, who is sitting cageside. Sterling gets Kattar all the way down, only for the Massachusetts native bounce back to his feet in short order. Sterling keeps after a single until there is no way in, and he opts to split Kattar’s legs far apart against the fence to disrupt his balance. When that too does not result in a change in position, Sterling knees the thigh several times and tries to impose his body weight to drag Kattar down. Sterling has a knee brush on the cup of his foe, but Kattar signals he is fine. Sterling clings to his man until he slides off the side, and he dodges a front kick and advances with a trio of punches. Sterling retreats, circling away from anything Kattar tries to reach him with, until he kicks low and aims body shots. The punches from Sterling lead to a level change, where he completes an easy double to rend Kattar to the floor. Sterling moves to side control and stays there, where he holds Kattar down and thwarts any potential offense coming back his way. Sterling continues to grind in the position until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 3
Sterling practically races out of his corner, throwing looping punches and a high kick until he closes in and grips hold of his adversary. Sterling chucks Kattar down to the mat without much effort, and Kattar posts off his arms to push himself back up. Sterling grapples him from behind, where he pushes Kattar to the wall with a hook in from behind. Kattar fights off the back take to turn himself to the fence, and Sterling switches up for a single. Kattar hangs on, and Sterling lowers him down to the ground comfortably. The crowd is not amused by Sterling’s strategy, and they let him have it as time ticks off the clock. Herzog asks Sterling to do more than hold in this position, and Sterling answers by lifting Kattar’s legs up to scoot him away from the cage wall and put him in a more horizontal position. Sterling keeps smothering until he sets up an arm-triangle choke, and he considers stepping over to one side but opts to go to the other instead to maintain control. Sterling knees the side a few times, and Kattar explodes to his knees and stands up. Sterling uses all of his might, lifting “The Boston Finisher” in the air and slamming him in the mat in a maneuver reminiscent of a pro wrestling powerbomb. The slam hurts Kattar, and Sterling recognizes this and tries to pound his damaged man out. Kattar manages to gather his thoughts as Sterling lays into him, and he grips hold of the waist to keep Sterling from landing anything especially harmful. Sterling attempts to posture up, and Kattar follows him by sitting up, ignoring any offense landing on his ribs. Sterling turns a potentially guillotine choke to a brabo choke, and Kattar sits out of it. Sterling drops hammers right until the end, putting a stamp on a clear-cut dominant performance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo slightly leans Aljamain Sterling due to Kattar's 18-month layoff and knee surgery, which could cause ring rust. He notes Sterling's takedown accuracy is poor but his relentless wrestling may be enough. He acknowledges Kattar is the better striker and if he stuffs takedowns, he wins. He calls it razor thin at 51-49.

"Alaine very very very slight lean as the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Cody sees this as a live underdog spot. He notes Sterling's wrestling may not translate to 145 lbs, as his grappling diminishes against bigger opponents. Sterling has been reluctant to shoot takedowns, as seen against Sean O'Malley, and was knocked out. Kattar has 91% takedown defense in the UFC, stuffing attempts from wrestlers like Dan Ige and Josh Emmett. Cody believes Kattar's volume and power advantage will be key, and if he stuffs takedowns, he can outpoint Sterling. He also mentions Sterling's mentality of wanting to grind out boring fights, which may not impress judges in a hot Vegas crowd.

"I'm going to back up with you on that one and uh take Calvin cater is dog number well we got Yuri peta's so to speak dog number one but you want a real dog we'll go with Calvin ker …"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Connor also picks Kattar with a cloud of question marks. He notes that Sterling is a creative takedown artist but moving up in weight against a big featherweight. Connor points out that wrestlers moving up rarely succeed, and Kattar's defensive wrestling has been solid. He also mentions that Kattar is a slow starter but has power and size advantages.

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Connor notes the line movement.

"I'm going to take a Calvin cater as well with just a huge cloud of question marks floating around."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Calvin Kattar as a dog, citing his boxing advantage and takedown defense. He acknowledges Sterling's grappling threat but believes Kattar's size and striking can keep the fight standing. Vreeland is concerned about Kattar's injury layoff and Sterling's experience, but sees value in the underdog.

"I'll lean with Kattar"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says it's a really good fight and he is excited to see how Aljamain Sterling bounces back from losing his bantamweight title now fighting at featherweight. He does not give a prediction.

"Aljamain Sterling versus Calvin Kattar that's a really good fight I'm very excited to see how Aljo bounces back"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Kattar holds a striking advantage and will touch up Sterling from distance. He will shut down takedown attempts and batter Sterling on the feet, winning a decision. Sterling's featherweight debut will be tough.

decision

"I think we'll see Kar really touch up Alain Sterling from distance be able to Shu off off a couple of the takedown attempts and then really batter Sterling on the feet on route to a decision Victory"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Paul picks Kattar as a dog, citing the weight change for Sterling and Kattar's takedown defense. He notes that few have tried to wrestle Kattar, and those who did (Dan Ige, Josh Emmett) had little success. Paul thinks if Sterling can't get takedowns, it becomes a competitive standup fight where Kattar has more power. He also mentions Sterling's recent knockout loss and his apparent mental state, questioning his motivation. Paul believes Kattar can keep the fight standing and win a decision or even get a knockout.

"Calvin CER will be one for me."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win, citing Kattar's long layoff and leg injury. He believes Sterling's grappling will be too much for Kattar, especially targeting the injured rear leg with single legs. He expects Sterling to either finish or ride out a decision.

"Al Jamaine Sterling the Funk Master is going to get it done he's going to show these featherweights what real grappling is."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Zane picks Kattar despite many question marks. He notes that Kattar is a big featherweight with power, and Sterling is moving up for the first time. Zane argues that wrestlers moving up rarely look their best, and Sterling's inefficient style may not translate well. He also points out that Kattar has faced few dedicated wrestlers, but Sterling's first fight at 145 could be a disadvantage.

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Zane mentions the line movement.

"I am gonna, I'm gonna take Kater. I am he's the, the guys that have beat him tend to be bigger punching or more deft range strikers who can actually just handle him there."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Sean O'Malley

TKO (punches) R2 0:51 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Sean O'Malley	0	17 of 35	48%	24 of 46	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:34
Aljamain Sterling	1	25 of 35	71%	26 of 36	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:18

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Sean O'Malley	0	13 of 26	50%	20 of 37	0 of 1	0%	0:21
1	Aljamain Sterling	0	8 of 14	57%	8 of 14	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Sean O'Malley	0	4 of 9	44%	4 of 9	0 of 1	0%	0:13
2	Aljamain Sterling	1	17 of 21	80%	18 of 22	0 of 0	---	0:18

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Sean O'Malley	17 of 35	48%	3 of 12	3 of 10	11 of 13	16 of 33	1 of 2	0 of 0
Aljamain Sterling	25 of 35	71%	18 of 25	6 of 9	1 of 1	10 of 16	1 of 1	14 of 18

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Sean O'Malley	13 of 26	50%	0 of 5	2 of 8	11 of 13	13 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 14	57%	3 of 6	4 of 7	1 of 1	7 of 13	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Sean O'Malley	4 of 9	44%	3 of 7	1 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 7	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	17 of 21	80%	15 of 19	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 3	0 of 0	14 of 18

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-258), O’Malley (+210)

Round 1
In the main attraction inside of the
Boston Garden
FleetCenter
TD Banknorth Garden
TD Garden, two men with no particular affinity to Beantown will collide for bantamweight gold. In the truest sense of the overused phrase, this is a pure grappler vs. striker affair, one that pits defending champ Sterling (23-3, 15-3 UFC) against the exceptionally accurate O’Malley (16-1, 1 NC; 8-1, 1 NC UFC). Should Sterling get his hand raised, he will set the record for the most consecutive defenses in the division’s history, while O’Malley can become the second champion to make his way to the promotion from Dana White’s Contender Series – Jamahal Hill was the first. There is nothing more that needs to be said from these two or about these two, and referee Marc Goddard brings the two together to make the title fight official. The staredown lasts from the moment Bruce Buffer starts speaking through to part of the introductions, and they are intense. They do touch gloves, and it’s on with the show. When they come together, Sterling is quick to swat O’Malley’s hands down. Sterling leaps forward with front kicks and side kicks, and he reaches out with long jabs while O’Malley stays out of reach. Sterling lands a solid leg kick as he races after O’Malley, and O’Malley responds with a front kick. Sterling keeps busy with kicks to any target, and O’Malley jabs to the body. O’Malley pushes the pace and draws a reaction out of his opponent, and the crowd rains down a profane chant against the champion. Sterling puts his foot on the gas, and he leans back from a long left hand that comes at his chin. The two take turns leading the dance, but O’Malley’s work rate is quite low through the first half of the round. O’Malley feints and fakes his way in, and he has to block a body kick that gets past his guard. Sterling chips away at the lead leg, and he absorbs a front kick on the ribs. Sterling peppers O’Malley with three low kicks before O’Malley gives him a stomping kick back to his knee. Sterling’s inside calf kicks force a stance switch early, and O’Malley lunges forward but does not fire off anything. Sterling reacts significantly when O’Malley is about to strike, and he picks at O’Malley’s leg while strafing to the side. O’Malley drops his hands to taunt Sterling into coming at him, and Sterling keeps ripping leg kicks and little else. Sterling blazes past his foe with a kick, and O’Malley settles down and fires off a spinning back kick that backs him off. Sterling shoots in for a single, and he jams O’Malley up against the fence while holding his foe’s leg in the air. Sterling lands several short punches, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
The second round begins with the two rushing towards one another, and O’Malley lashes out with a kick that he misses and falls over after throwing. Sterling comes at him and pursues a takedown, and O’Malley backs himself against the wall to stay up. O’Malley shuts it down and drops back to line up a right hand, and Sterling misses with a punch and gets cracked right on the chin. Sterling crashes down to the ground on his face, and he turns to his side in an effort to get his wits about him. O’Malley follows him down and clubs him with hammerfists, and Sterling is moving but still taking damage. O’Malley continues his bombardment of punches, and Goddard is closely watching over things. Sterling turns over and looks to reach out with his left arm for a potential takedown, and Goddard waves the fight off. Some may consider it an early stoppage, given how Sterling was still moving and defending himself. Nevertheless, the fight is over and O’Malley is now the UFC’s bantamweight champion, and he is the second fighter off the Contender Series to claim a UFC strap. The landscape of the 135-pound weight class has now changed drastically, and a wealth of options present themselves for O’Malley first defense and upcoming title reign. Marlon Vera, Merab Dvalishvili, Umar Nurmagomedov and a few others are right in contention, and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. In his post-fight interview, O’Malley mentions that he would be up for his first defense against Vera this December, and Vera immediately responded on social media with a post of dollar signs and bags of cash. If that is the fight the UFC makes for its Dec. 16 pay-per-view card, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Aljamain Sterling R2 0:51 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling, expecting his wrestling to take over as Sean O'Malley slows down in the later rounds. He notes that O'Malley gassed in a three-round fight and this is five rounds. He thinks Sterling could win by submission but acknowledges O'Malley's toughness and striking threat. He believes Sterling's range management and takedowns will be the difference.

"Al Jermaine Sterling is going to start to take over... I think Al Jermaine's gonna win this I think he could potentially win by submission."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)

Sean O'Malley

Big Brady picks Sean O'Malley to win by fourth-round knockout, but admits he's terrified of Sterling's early grappling. He believes O'Malley can stuff takedowns and make Sterling work, causing Sterling to slow down. Brady notes O'Malley's striking advantage and power, and thinks if O'Malley survives the first few rounds, he can finish Sterling late.

win by KO, round 4

"I think I'm gonna pick Sean O'Malley here... fourth round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Cody believes Sterling's grappling and wrestling are a notch above O'Malley's, and that Sterling will take O'Malley down, control him, and win rounds. He notes that O'Malley's camp lacks confidence, and that the line is inflated due to O'Malley's popularity. He expects Sterling to win by decision or submission, and likes the value at -260.

over 4.5 rounds at +150; Sterling over 3 takedowns; fight time over 18.5 minutes

"I like algema Sterling and I really like this line now who likes a minus 260 line Pat like it's still pretty deep but I think 100 once baked into it is that hate Factor people just don't like Al …"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling, acknowledging that Sterling should be favored but questioning whether the -255 price is warranted. He notes that Sterling has a clear path to victory if O'Malley has no answer when his back is taken, but if O'Malley can stretch the fight out, all bets are off. Levi mentions that Sterling's cardio fades in championship rounds due to massive weight cuts, which could open a late path for O'Malley. He also highlights that O'Malley's confidence and training with Taki Mendez might help him survive early grappling exchanges. Ultimately, Levi picks Sterling but is not fully confident, as he is intrigued by O'Malley's potential to survive and capitalize late.

Sterling minus 255 is a question; O'Malley plus 215; if O'Malley can stretch it out, all bets are off

"I do have to lean towards aljo and I'm but I am rooting just as a fan for O'Malley"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)

Sean O'Malley

Lucrative James picks Sean O'Malley, citing his distance management, footwork, and underrated jiu-jitsu. He believes Sterling's frequent weight cuts and recent activity may affect his performance. He sees value on O'Malley's moneyline and thinks O'Malley could get a knockout or win rounds on damage.

"I like Sean O'Malley for some value on this one I honestly do"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Sterling has a clear grappling advantage and should be able to take O'Malley down and control him. O'Malley's takedown defense has been a weakness, and Sterling's pressure and back-taking ability will be key. Sterling will likely win a decision rather than chase a finish, conserving energy. The decision prop is the best play.

Sterling by decision

"give me algeman Sterling and still by decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over Sean O'Malley. He believes Sterling's grappling will be the difference, as O'Malley will be worried about takedowns. He notes Sterling's tricky movement and ability to pressure O'Malley backwards. He predicts Sterling will take O'Malley down early, get his back, and win by TKO via ground and pound in round 1 or 2. He thinks Sterling will prove a point.

TKO by ground and pound from back mount in round 1 or 2

"I think he's going to win impressively and I think he's going to beat up O'Malley and maybe finish him by TKO to ground and pound from the back mount in round one or round two"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Henry Cejudo

Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	135 of 210	64%	186 of 261	4 of 15	26%	0	0	4:00
Henry Cejudo	0	99 of 174	56%	143 of 219	3 of 8	37%	0	0	5:06

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	20 of 34	58%	29 of 43	2 of 3	66%	1:37
1	Henry Cejudo	7 of 18	38%	15 of 26	1 of 1	100%	1:47
2	Aljamain Sterling	29 of 55	52%	29 of 55	0 of 2	0%	0:00
2	Henry Cejudo	31 of 53	58%	31 of 53	0 of 2	0%	0:02
3	Aljamain Sterling	26 of 29	89%	45 of 48	1 of 6	16%	1:30
3	Henry Cejudo	15 of 29	51%	38 of 53	1 of 1	100%	1:43
4	Aljamain Sterling	36 of 52	69%	52 of 68	1 of 3	33%	0:38
4	Henry Cejudo	19 of 33	57%	24 of 38	0 of 2	0%	0:46
5	Aljamain Sterling	24 of 40	60%	31 of 47	0 of 1	0%	0:15
5	Henry Cejudo	27 of 41	65%	35 of 49	1 of 2	50%	0:48

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	135 of 210	64%	51 of 112	50 of 60	34 of 38	103 of 174	24 of 28	8 of 8
Henry Cejudo	99 of 174	56%	35 of 99	30 of 37	34 of 38	82 of 152	16 of 21	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	20 of 34	58%	5 of 15	10 of 12	5 of 7	12 of 25	3 of 4	5 of 5
1	Henry Cejudo	7 of 18	38%	3 of 13	1 of 1	3 of 4	7 of 16	0 of 2	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	29 of 55	52%	10 of 33	11 of 14	8 of 8	28 of 53	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Henry Cejudo	31 of 53	58%	10 of 26	7 of 11	14 of 16	29 of 51	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	26 of 29	89%	12 of 15	11 of 11	3 of 3	17 of 20	7 of 7	2 of 2
3	Henry Cejudo	15 of 29	51%	7 of 19	5 of 6	3 of 4	10 of 23	4 of 5	1 of 1
4	Aljamain Sterling	36 of 52	69%	11 of 25	13 of 14	12 of 13	27 of 42	8 of 9	1 of 1
4	Henry Cejudo	19 of 33	57%	7 of 20	5 of 6	7 of 7	16 of 30	3 of 3	0 of 0
5	Aljamain Sterling	24 of 40	60%	13 of 24	5 of 9	6 of 7	19 of 34	5 of 6	0 of 0
5	Henry Cejudo	27 of 41	65%	8 of 21	12 of 13	7 of 7	20 of 32	7 of 9	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cejudo (-115), Sterling (-105)

Round 1
This one is for all the marbles, and a fair amount of divisional glory as well. Sterling (22-3, 14-3 UFC) will be trying to set the UFC bantamweight record by notching his third successful title defense, while Cejudo (16-2, 10-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to get his old belt back. The winner of this pairing will elevate themselves in the all-time rankings at bantamweight, and they will have 25 minutes to figure it out. Like the legion of fans in the Prudential Center, referee Herb Dean is excited for how this one will play out. The fighters share a stern glove touch, and let the games begin. Sterling comes out aggressively, and he leads the dance with an early head kick. They clash shins at the same time, and Sterling recovers and kicks the leg. Cejudo ignores a few low kicks and backs away when Sterling leaps at him with a flying knee. Cejudo dodges a body kick, and he counters with a right hand. Sterling stalks him down and reaches out with a swatting right up high and left to the body. Cejudo tries to catch leg, and he elects to snatch up a body lock and easily take the champ to the mat. Sterling sits up against the wall, and Cejudo holds on in half guard until Sterling sets up butterfly hooks. Cejudo drops down to grab hold of a guillotine choke with Sterling on his knees, and Sterling breaks the grip but is holding Sterling’s head down. Sterling explodes to his feet, and he eats a leg kick and a right hand on the way. Sterling loads up with a body kick, and Cejudo catches it and whiffs with a huge right hand. Sterling snipes him with his superior range, and Cejudo pushes forward into a clinch. Sterling considers a level change, and Cejudo staves it off and again presses on the back of Sterling’s neck to keep him low. They stand up, and Sterling hunts for a single-leg with Cejudo against the cage. The crowd opens up with chants for “Henry” despite Sterling the fighter from the area, and Sterling manages to take that energy and muscle the ex-champ down to his knees. Sterling cannot keep him down or take his back, and he slams a few knees to the side before Cejudo stands. Sterling hits a mat return, and he snatches up back control and gets one hook in. Cejudo looks to break up the leg wrap, and Sterling knees his man in the thigh a few times and swings with a huge punch right before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
Cejudo starts off the second frame with a calf kick, and Sterling greets him with sharp jab and a body kick. Sterling jumps with a switch kick that lands on the shoulder, and Cejudo is still trying to find his distance. Cejudo connects with a calf kick, and Sterling shoots in on him. Sterling shoulder rolls a few punches, and he sticks Cejudo with a straight left. They trade low kicks, and Sterling catches a kick only to get caught with an uppercut to let it go. Cejudo presses the action and shocks Sterling with a head kick, and the champion reels and reaches out with a right hook. Sterling pushes out a front kick, turns to dodge a head kick, and he intercepts Cejudo with a knee to the guts. Sterling surprises his foe with a left hook when faking with a front kick, and he throws kicks to all targets to fluster the ex-flyweight. Sterling shoots in for a takedown, and Cejudo stops it in its tracks with ease. Sterling gets in a left hand, and when Cejudo counters, Sterling is there to catch him with a strike and be out of harm’s way in time. Cejudo puts some mustard into an overhand right, and Sterling jukes and keeps moving. “Funk Master” retains his awkward movement and strange angles, and this allows him to take most of the steam out of the heavy strikes Cejudo throws. Cejudo backs his man up with a straight right to the pectorals, and Sterling spins him around with a calf kick. Cejudo walks into a left hand, and he tries to hop forward with a hook only to get backed off. Sterling quickly spins with an elbow, and Cejudo looks for answers and loads up on a power right. When Sterling ducks away, Cejudo nearly dislodges his dome with a head kick. Sterling slides away and gets a straight left out, and he keeps a high guard to blow what comes back immediately. Sterling digs a punch to the body, and Cejudo replies with a few punches up top. Sterling kicks the side, and Cejudo looks for a takedown only to get shut down. Cejudo wings a monster right hand, and Sterling brushes past it and looks to trip Cejudo down. The wild scramble allows Cejudo to land on top, but the round ends before anything comes from it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 3
Cejudo practically comes out sprinting from his corner, and the two engage in a series of leg kicks. Cejudo breaks this up with one to the ribcage, and Sterling ducks down with a jab. Cejudo times a perfect flying knee that skims off the top of the head, and Sterling drops down to shoot in for a takedown. Cejudo sprawls perfectly and is pushed down to the floor, with no submission or anything from Cejudo. “The Messenger” lets him back up, and Sterling thanks him with a big right hand. Sterling shoots for another takedown, and this time, Cejudo makes him pay for this try with a stern knee. Sterling pursues another from a different angle, and Cejudo defends it and turns his foe around to push him to the fence. Sterling gets off a short knee while they jockey for position, and Sterling trips out a leg and drops Cejudo to the floor. Sterling sneaks his right leg in for a potential hook, and Cejudo hangs onto Sterling’s left arm but cannot keep the gold medalist grounded. Sterling lets him up so that he can smash Cejudo in the face with a clean knee, and he aims one more to the body. Sterling looks for another takedown entry, and Cejudo tosses him out of the way. Sterling lands a left, and Cejudo replies with a right and sprawls to stop a naked takedown. Cejudo nearly circles around to the side, and Sterling answers by switching up for a single. Cejudo keeps his chest pressed on the back of Sterling’s head to stop the takedown from getting anywhere, and he hammers Sterling with a punch before waving Sterling back up. Sterling obliges and they trade body kicks. Sterling fires off a one-two into a level change, and Cejudo stops it but absorbs a pair of flush knees to the torso. Cejudo hits a trip, plopping Sterling on his back with seconds to spare, and he rides out the remainder of the round in the guard.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo

Round 4
The championship rounds are upon them, and Sterling scores a few low kicks to start them off. Sterling swings a left hand, and Cejudo answers with a leg kick. The champ measures a kick to the side, and he loads up with another. Cejudo tries to fire back a low kick, and Sterling strikes the same spot and then has one calf kick checked. Cejudo blocks one and lunges forward, with a right hand connecting before Sterling is able to escape. Sterling sits down on a leg kick, and he follows with a right hand. Cejudo steps in with a knee and two punches, and these two are striking tit-for-tat one after the other. Sterling stings the calf with a shin, prompting Cejudo to charge at him with his fists out to clinch up. Cejudo cannot keep him tied up, and he tosses him away and catches a kick to release a left hand over the top. Sterling sticks out a jab and fails for a takedown, and he nails the calf with another kick. Sterling snaps the head back courtesy of a sharp jab, and Cejudo walks through a kick on his calf to consider a takedown. Sterling breaks free and aims a punch high and a kick low. Cejudo fakes a takedown and walks Sterling down to smack him with a shovel uppercut, and Sterling knees him in the liver. Cejudo grabs the raised leg but cannot elevate him, and Sterling turns the corner and knees his foe in the body. Cejudo whips Sterling around and uses a head lock to drag Sterling to the mat. Sterling pushes through to attack a double, and Cejudo does a whole split but cannot stop Sterling from taking him down. Sterling laces up the leg and lands a few right hands, and Cejudo bursts back up and gets slugged in the chops before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 5
Sterling points at the ground and says “Let’s go” to start off the last round, and the bantamweights meet in the middle of the cage for five more minutes of combat. Cejudo charges, ignoring a leg kick and launching one up high off the shoulder. Sterling slaps another calf kick to the swollen leg of his opponent, and Cejudo blocks one to his liver to follow. Sterling circles on the outside to avoid the looping strikes of his opponent, and Cejudo steps in with a solid body kick. Sterling gives two right back, and he whiffs on a big right hand. Cejudo charges recklessly, face-first into a right hand, but he pays it no mind as he strikes the side with his shin. Cejudo is pressuring aggressively, and Sterling backs him away with a few punches and a high kick. Cejudo scores a right hand as he comes in, and the fans rain down cheers for “Henry” again. Sterling spins with a back kick as Cejudo is kicking low, breaking up this attack. Cejudo stuns the champ with a left hand, and Sterling blinks it out and fights off a single. Cejudo lets it go and cracks Sterling with a right hand and follows it with a leg kick. Sterling reaches out with a right that misses the mark, and he boots the liver as Cejudo takes a look at the clock. Sterling slips a punch and sticks a straight left out, and Cejudo absorbs a calf kick and stuffs a takedown. Cejudo knees the body a few times and looks to follow it with an uppercut, and Sterling rolls with a punch and gets tied up. Sterling backs away from the advancing Cejudo, who grabs hold of a single and lifts Sterling’s leg in the air. Sterling topples down to his seat, but he powers right back up to his feet with Cejudo holding on from behind. Sterling tries to break the grip, and he spins around to get tied up. Cejudo lets go with clinch punches and knees, and the fight has reached its conclusion. It might go either way, possibly depending on the scoring of the second round. In victory, Sterling becomes the first bantamweight champion in UFC history to record three consecutive title defenses. One of the most underappreciated champs in the company is received by a series of boos, but Sterling lets it slide off like water off a duck’s back.
The defending champ calls out Sean O’Malley for his next challenge, and O’Malley enters the cage wearing a jacket reminiscent of “Thriller” by Michael Jackson. O’Malley steps right up to Sterling’s face and constantly repeats the line “you better do better than that.” UFC head Dana White gets between them, and Sterling calls for O’Malley to be removed from his cage. O’Malley approaches Sterling’s teammate, Merab Dvalishvili, who grabs his jacket, puts it on himself and runs away. Sterling is ready to go help out his teammate should a skirmish break out, with O’Malley hurling expletives and middle fingers until his red coat is returned. The security prevents anything bad from arising, and Sterling takes the mic again and tells O’Malley that they will fight in September. After this cools down, Cejudo is given the microphone, and he removes his gloves. Cejudo expresses his disappointment for the close fight, but holds no ill will towards the man that defeated him. Quoting “Talladega Nights,” Cejudo states that “If I’m not first, I’m last” and says this might be the last time he competes. If he fights again, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (49-46 Sterling)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cejudo (48-47 Sterling)

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Henry Cejudo via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Angelo picks Aljamain Sterling despite acknowledging asterisks on his title wins (illegal knee, split decision, TJ Dillashaw with one arm). He believes Sterling's size and activity will be decisive, as Sterling is a weight bully and has been fighting consistently while Cejudo returns after three years. Angelo is rooting for Cejudo but thinks the layoff and cardio questions are too much to overcome. He notes Cejudo's Olympic wrestling credentials but doubts he can take down the much larger Sterling.

"I have to go with the current champion who is more active who is much larger I have to go with Al Jermaine Sterling here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Big Brady picks Sterling due to activity, youth, volume, and size advantages. He notes Cejudo's three-year layoff is a major concern, especially at lower weight classes. He acknowledges that if prime Cejudo shows up, he should win, but he's not confident in that. He mentions Sterling's reach and height advantages and that Sterling is in his prime training with Merab Dvalishvili. He says this is his least confident pick on the card and he's likely not betting it.

Least confident pick on the card; likely not betting this fight

"I'm gonna go with Sterling here in this matchup but if we do get Prime sahudo he should win this fight I'm just not sure if we will get that so give me Sterling to win this fight I'll say …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Cody acknowledges the massive question marks around Henry Cejudo's three-year layoff and whether he can replicate his past success. He gives Sterling advantages in speed, striking, grappling, and recent experience, but notes that Cejudo's constant pressure could exploit Sterling's tendency to fade in later rounds. He suggests playing Sterling live after the first round for a better price rather than betting pre-fight, and only as a small play if nothing else on the card jumps out.

Live betting after first round; only small play on top line

"I just feel like for this price on algeman Sterling I would have to play now not something I'm super confident in I would only put it on the top line just like last week's rookie Simone pick"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Henry Cejudo

Connor leans toward Cejudo, citing raw speed as a major factor and noting that Cejudo is the fastest fighter Sterling has faced since Marlon Moraes. He believes Cejudo's pressure and willingness to take risks will be effective, and that Cejudo will land the bigger shots. Connor acknowledges the age and ring rust concerns but is willing to take that flyer.

"So I think I'm going to lean Henry Sahutto here. I'm going to take the age flyer. I'm going to take the time off flyer."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Henry Cejudo

The host believes Henry Cejudo's speed, explosiveness, and defensive grappling will be too much for Aljamain Sterling. He notes that Cejudo is difficult to take down and control, and his calf kicks and power punching could be key. He expects Cejudo to win by knockout in the third or fourth round, assuming he hasn't regressed too much from the layoff.

Cejudo by knockout, round 3 or 4

"I think that suhuru hasn't you know regressed too much after being out of the cage for as long as he has but if he comes by even 90 of what he used to be I think he has a …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Paul agrees with Cody's reasoning, noting that while Cejudo could return like Jon Jones or GSP, the three-year layoff is a major unknown. He highlights Sterling's seven-inch reach advantage and massive speed advantage from training with Rob Font. He says it's 'algermane or pass' for him but doesn't feel he has an edge betting-wise, so he likely won't place a bet.

"it's it's algermane or pass for me right now but I don't know if I'm going to get to get to it from a betting perspective"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The Guru leans toward Sterling, citing Cejudo's three-year layoff and age (36) as major factors. He believes Sterling's reach and height advantages will allow him to pick at Cejudo from range with front kicks and jabs. He also notes that Cejudo's wrestling may be neutralized by Sterling's body triangle, which can burn rounds. However, he admits it's a 50-50 fight and hopes Cejudo wins for entertainment, showing low confidence.

"aljo's gonna win it's a 50-50 fight I'm leaning towards Al Jermaine Sterling here"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Zane picks Sterling, noting that he always starts strong with a clear game plan and is underrated for his toughness and resilience. He highlights Sterling's high output, body work, and weapons like knees and uppercuts to counter shorter fighters. Zane acknowledges the risk of Sterling getting caught or fading late, but believes Sterling's grappling danger and ability to take Cejudo's back are key advantages.

"Yeah, I'm going to stick with Alderman Sterling. I mean, I think if I assume ring rest to be a factor at all, all I know is Alderman Sterling always starts."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs T.J. Dillashaw

TKO (punches) R2 3:44 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	72 of 93	77%	148 of 181	5 of 8	62%	2	0	7:06
T.J. Dillashaw	0	8 of 26	30%	13 of 31	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	30 of 45	66%	80 of 103	3 of 4	75%	1	4:20
1	T.J. Dillashaw	3 of 11	27%	8 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	42 of 48	87%	68 of 78	2 of 4	50%	1	2:46
2	T.J. Dillashaw	5 of 15	33%	5 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	72 of 93	77%	56 of 75	13 of 15	3 of 3	17 of 30	2 of 4	53 of 59
T.J. Dillashaw	8 of 26	30%	3 of 20	2 of 2	3 of 4	8 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	30 of 45	66%	24 of 38	5 of 6	1 of 1	8 of 15	1 of 3	21 of 27
1	T.J. Dillashaw	3 of 11	27%	0 of 8	1 of 1	2 of 2	3 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	42 of 48	87%	32 of 37	8 of 9	2 of 2	9 of 15	1 of 1	32 of 32
2	T.J. Dillashaw	5 of 15	33%	3 of 12	1 of 1	1 of 2	5 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

UFC Bantamweight Title Fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-175), Dillashaw (+150)

Round 1
The co-main event kicks off under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. They exchange kicks as Sterling changes stances. Tons of movement early on, and Sterling catches a kick which he uses to spin Dillashaw to the canvas. Sterling takes Dillashaw’s back for a moment, but they spin through and Sterling lands in half guard. Dillashaw appears to be in pain from something. Sterling moves to mount, then locks up a body triangle from the top. Dillashaw’s left arm or shoulder may be the problem. Sterling lands a couple of huge right hands from the top, then takes Dillashaw’s back. Sterling working for a choke, then gives it up to move back to mount. Dillashaw pops back up and scrambles, but Sterling is all over him, regaining back control. Under two minutes left and Sterling has Dillashaw in a body triangle from back mount. Sterling pelts the ex-champ with punches that curl around the front of Dillashaw’s face. Dillashaw escapes to his feet and his left arm is clearly compromised. Sterling drops for a takedown with 30 seconds left, driving Dillashaw to the fence. He peels Dillashaw away from the fence and dumps him on the canvas. Dillashaw pops back up right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-8 Sterling
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-8 Sterling

Round 2
Dillashaw’s shoulder is popped back in between rounds, and they’re good to go for another round at least. Sterling throws low kicks to open the round as Dillashaw returns fire, mostly with his right hand. Sterling drops levels for an easy double-leg takedown in the middle of the Octagon. Sterling sets up in Dillashaw’s half-guard. Sterling tries to move to side control, dropping elbows as he does. Dillashaw drives back to his feet, but is ensnared in a D’Arce choke as he does. Dillashaw escapes the hold, and his arm is once again all the way out of the socket, hanging limply at his side. The champ seems unsure of what to do, but takes Dillashaw down again. Sterling moves to mount. Dillashaw turns his back and goes belly-down. Sterling smashes Dillashaw with a couple of brutal elbows, then several punches, and Dillashaw is doing next to nothing to defend himself. Ref Goddard steps in and mercifully calls a stop to the mauling.

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. T.J. Dillashaw R2 3:44 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Angelo picks T.J. Dillashaw, surprised he is an underdog. He questions how Sterling can take Dillashaw down, noting only two people have ever done it. He praises Dillashaw's pace, pressure, and toughness, referencing the Sandhagen fight. He has a moneyline bet on Dillashaw at +150.

Moneyline bet at +150

"I'm going TJ Dillashaw I got that moneyline bet at plus 150"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Big Brady picks Dillashaw to win by decision, despite concerns about his age (36) and decline. He believes stylistically it's a great matchup for Dillashaw: his takedown defense (86%) and get-up game are elite, and Sterling has only 30% takedown accuracy. He expects Dillashaw's pressure and cardio to overwhelm Sterling in the later rounds, winning the third, fourth, and fifth.

"I'm going to take dylasha to win by decision I think early on super competitive I think Sterling can even take a round or two but I think as the fight goes on I think the pressure is going to …"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Cody thinks Sterling is the superior fighter overall but believes Dillashaw is live as an underdog. He notes Sterling's cardio fades in later rounds, while Dillashaw historically excels in rounds 4 and 5. Cody points out that Dillashaw has excellent takedown defense and wrestling, and that Sterling's takedowns may not hold him down. He sees Dillashaw winning the striking exchanges and possibly capitalizing on Sterling's fatigue.

"I just kind of feel like for an underdog plus money is not taking anything away for algebra and Sterling it's just like I think he's live in this spot to get upset so uh sign me up for some …"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Connor picks Dillashaw because he believes Dillashaw's wrestling and grappling defense will neutralize Sterling's best weapons. He notes that Dillashaw has never been held down or submitted, and that Sterling tends to gas when he can't impose his grappling. He also points out that Dillashaw's pressure and ability to take easy targets will wear on Sterling, similar to how Munoz gave him trouble.

"I'm gonna pick TJ Dillashaw. It feels too right for the fights he wins and the fight Sterling loses."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

Daniel Levi leans toward Aljamain Sterling to defend his belt, but is not confident. He respects Sterling's back control and jiu-jitsu, noting that even Petr Yan couldn't escape his backpack. However, he questions Sterling's durability and cardio, thinking he can wilt in later rounds. Levi also notes that T.J. Dillashaw is 37, coming off an ACL tear and a long layoff, and is no longer in his prime. He thinks Sterling's youth and confidence in his strengths give him the edge, but he has no bet on this fight because he doesn't have a strong read.

"I'm a lean algeman to to make it happen to steal some of these rounds but not confident I don't have a bet on this fight for a reason."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Dillashaw has solid wrestling and takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He is the better striker and can counter Sterling's entries. Sterling's best path is grappling, but Dillashaw's movement and pivots make him hard to catch. Dillashaw by decision at +300 or moneyline at +150 are both appealing.

Dillashaw by decision at +300; Dillashaw by KO at +500

"I love the underdog price here on the snake TJ Dillashaw I think that he has the perfect stylistic approach here to deal with al-jamin Sterling"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Paul struggles to get to Sterling at -175, acknowledging Sterling's talent but questioning whether his grappling will work on Dillashaw. He notes Dillashaw's takedown defense historically, and that Sterling may not be able to hold him down. Paul mentions Dillashaw's strong later rounds and volume striking. He is picking Dillashaw for the show but is unsure about betting, possibly looking at round props.

round 4 or round 5 props (maybe)

"for the purpose of the show I'm picking delish uh don't know if I'm gonna get there from a betting perspective"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling over T.J. Dillashaw by submission. He argues Sterling is underrated, citing his wins over Yan, Sandhagen, and Munoz. He believes Dillashaw gives up his back and that Sterling will hurt him on the feet before securing a rear-naked choke in the second round.

rear naked choke late second round

"I'm gonna go with Al Jermaine Sterling over TJ Dillashaw"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

T.J. Dillashaw

Zane also picks Dillashaw, citing that Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling due to his ability to stuff takedowns and avoid submission. He notes that Sterling's path to victory is narrow and relies on early chaos, but Dillashaw's experience and durability make him the safer bet. He also mentions that Dillashaw's wrestling-heavy approach against Sandhagen shows he can adapt.

"I gotta pick Dillashaw. It's weird because I would pick Yan over Dillashaw, but I think Dillashaw is a uniquely bad matchup for Sterling."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Petr Yan

Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	62 of 110	56%	91 of 143	2 of 22	9%	0	0	8:31
Petr Yan	0	63 of 103	61%	139 of 186	0 of 0	---	0	0	5:52

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	19 of 40	47%	20 of 41	0 of 2	0%	0:00
1	Petr Yan	13 of 26	50%	13 of 26	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Aljamain Sterling	17 of 29	58%	42 of 55	1 of 2	50%	3:50
2	Petr Yan	4 of 5	80%	21 of 24	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 13	46%	8 of 18	1 of 4	25%	3:43
3	Petr Yan	8 of 15	53%	20 of 27	0 of 0	---	0:07
4	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 10	80%	8 of 10	0 of 4	0%	0:00
4	Petr Yan	18 of 25	72%	48 of 57	0 of 0	---	3:51
5	Aljamain Sterling	12 of 18	66%	13 of 19	0 of 10	0%	0:58
5	Petr Yan	20 of 32	62%	37 of 52	0 of 0	---	1:54

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	62 of 110	56%	29 of 66	26 of 35	7 of 9	42 of 84	5 of 7	15 of 19
Petr Yan	63 of 103	61%	32 of 71	17 of 18	14 of 14	46 of 80	8 of 11	9 of 12

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	19 of 40	47%	5 of 22	11 of 14	3 of 4	19 of 40	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Petr Yan	13 of 26	50%	7 of 20	4 of 4	2 of 2	12 of 25	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	17 of 29	58%	14 of 20	1 of 6	2 of 3	3 of 11	0 of 0	14 of 18
2	Petr Yan	4 of 5	80%	1 of 2	1 of 1	2 of 2	3 of 4	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 13	46%	2 of 8	4 of 5	0 of 0	4 of 11	1 of 1	1 of 1
3	Petr Yan	8 of 15	53%	2 of 9	2 of 2	4 of 4	7 of 13	1 of 2	0 of 0
4	Aljamain Sterling	8 of 10	80%	2 of 4	6 of 6	0 of 0	6 of 8	2 of 2	0 of 0
4	Petr Yan	18 of 25	72%	10 of 17	4 of 4	4 of 4	9 of 13	4 of 5	5 of 7
5	Aljamain Sterling	12 of 18	66%	6 of 12	4 of 4	2 of 2	10 of 14	2 of 4	0 of 0
5	Petr Yan	20 of 32	62%	12 of 23	6 of 7	2 of 2	15 of 25	1 of 2	4 of 5

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan by decision. He notes that Yan was winning the first fight and has better takedown defense (90%). He expects more of the same without the illegal knee, though he acknowledges Sterling's striking stats were close. He thinks Yan is safe for parlays.

Safe for parlay piece; suggests parlay with Volkanovski, Yan, and Chimaev.

"i gotta go with pyotr here he was landing the more powerful strikes in their first fight he was controlling the grappling ... i like pyotr to win but i do think it's by decision"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by fourth-round knockout. He references the first fight where Yan was winning before the illegal knee, and expects a similar pattern: Yan starts slow, builds into the fight, and takes over in later rounds. Yan's wrestling, cardio, and finishing ability are superior. Sterling may have a better game plan but Yan is the better five-round fighter.

fourth round knockout

"i like yon to finish sterling i'm gonna say fourth round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Cody picks Yan but is worried about a potential upset. He thinks Sterling needs to fight an ultra-conservative game plan of jabbing and kicking, using the big octagon to avoid Yan's power. Cody notes Sterling's neck surgery and layoff, while Yan is active and experienced. He considers a draw possible if Sterling wins three rounds but gets 10-8'd in one. Ultimately, he sticks with Yan but with reservations.

draw +2800 (mentioned as possibility)

"yeah yawn for me as well but man i'm worried about it and i got like a snagging suspicion that there could be a potential apple pie [ __ ] in play"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)

Petr Yan

Levi considers Yan the undisputed champion and a master of adjustments. He criticizes Sterling's durability and cardio, noting that Yan's pressure and reads will lead to a faster start this time. He expects Yan to crowd Sterling, negate his unorthodox kicks, and eventually finish by TKO. He has parlayed Yan with Ian Garry.

Parlay: Petr Yan + Ian Garry

"i think yan is the actual master of making these adjustments and i think that he's going to come out here i think he's got something for algo this time"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Petr Yan

I think Yan gets stronger as the fight goes on and will find Sterling's chin. Sterling doesn't have the cardio to implement a 15-20 minute game plan. Yan will finish him late. I like Yan round 4/5/decision at -180 on FanDuel. The line is skewed due to public perception of Sterling.

Yan round 4/5/decision -180 (FanDuel)

"I like the Pyotr Yan side here... I think he finishes Aljamain Sterling at a certain point... Yan round four round five decision sitting at minus 180 I think that's a damn good line."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Petr Yan

Paul picks Yan, citing Yan's ability to calculate opponents and improve as the fight goes on, plus having four rounds of data from the first fight. He notes Sterling's wrestling was only 1 of 12 on takedowns and that he couldn't keep the pace for five rounds. Paul thinks Yan starts better this time and wins, though he doesn't love the -490 price.

"i think yawn wins again i i'm not too scared i don't love the minus minus nearly minus 500 but uh yawn for me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan by decision, expecting a close fight. He thinks Sterling will win the first two rounds but Yan will edge the later rounds, winning 48-47. He criticizes Sterling's reaction to the illegal knee and notes Yan's toughness and strength. He believes Sterling will be more reserved, giving Yan time to figure him out.

decision prediction, 48-47

"i'm going to go with pyotean by decision razor close 4847"

THE MMA GURU

View all 23 fights

Calvin Kattar - Fight History

LOSS vs Steve Garcia

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Calvin Kattar	0	26 of 123	21%	26 of 123	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:21
Steve Garcia	1	85 of 250	34%	85 of 250	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Calvin Kattar	0	8 of 26	30%	8 of 26	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Steve Garcia	0	22 of 71	30%	22 of 71	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Calvin Kattar	0	5 of 47	10%	5 of 47	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Steve Garcia	0	32 of 87	36%	32 of 87	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Calvin Kattar	0	13 of 50	26%	13 of 50	0 of 0	---	0:21
3	Steve Garcia	1	31 of 92	33%	31 of 92	0 of 0	---	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Calvin Kattar	26 of 123	21%	21 of 116	3 of 5	2 of 2	26 of 123	0 of 0	0 of 0
Steve Garcia	85 of 250	34%	52 of 208	23 of 29	10 of 13	85 of 249	0 of 0	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Calvin Kattar	8 of 26	30%	4 of 22	2 of 2	2 of 2	8 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Steve Garcia	22 of 71	30%	11 of 53	5 of 10	6 of 8	22 of 71	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	5 of 47	10%	5 of 47	0 of 0	0 of 0	5 of 47	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Steve Garcia	32 of 87	36%	19 of 72	10 of 11	3 of 4	32 of 87	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Calvin Kattar	13 of 50	26%	12 of 47	1 of 3	0 of 0	13 of 50	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Steve Garcia	31 of 92	33%	22 of 83	8 of 8	1 of 1	31 of 91	0 of 0	0 of 1

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-120); Kattar (+100)

Round 1
On a career-long four-fight skid, Kattar (23-9, 7-7 UFC) has not gotten his hand raised since outdueling Giga Chikadze in 2022. Possibly in the later stages of his career at 37 years old, he is being matched up against a dangerous brawler in Garcia (17-5, 6-2 UFC) who is knocking on the door of ludicrous status should he clock “The Boston Finisher.” Referee Jason Herzog understands his assignment, and the fighters do too, as they touch gloves to engage.
The two featherweight strikers measure one another in the early going, with Garcia eventually leading the dance with a looping pair of punches and some awkward kicks to any target he can find. Kattar ducks and swings hard on an overhand right counter that zips right past the Jackson-Wink representative. Garcia is in the driver’s seat but his connect rate remains low a minute in. Garcia wraps a right around the guard, but his left goes wide. Woots, whoops and cries rain down throughout the Bridgestone Arena, and Garcia silences them with a long punch combination and three head kicks in a row. Kattar defends well but stumbles, and he gets back to his feet and takes a left hand on the jaw. Garcia scores with a left hand and kicks after it.
Katter misses with a huge left hand, and Garcia races through it and lands a combination on Kattar’s face. Kattar is stuck not hitting anything of note, while Garcia is scoring to the head, body and legs. Garcia spins with a sudden wheel kick, and Kattar shells up but his nose takes the brunt of it. Kattar steps in with an elbow on the chin after Garcia hits him a few times, and he partially connects with a lead hook. Garcia forces Kattar to constantly defend himself, and his power drives “The Boston Finisher” back a few steps. Kattar starts to put his jab together, and he is answered with a Jackson-Wink-style oblique kick to the knee. One more kick to the lead leg ends the tepid round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Both featherweights trade right hands as the round begins, and Garcia stays in Kattar’s face but walks into a left hand on the jaw. Garcia shrugs it off and bounces around before settling down, planting a one-two on Kattar’s visage. Kattar’s looping punches continue to miss, as he is telegraphing his big right and Garcia is able to dodge or stay away from them. Garcia walks Kattar down, spinning with a clean back kick to the ribs, and he drives home several rib-roasters as well. This fires up Kattar, who cracks the favorite. Garcia gives it right back, happy to be getting the brawl he was seeking. Garcia beats Kattar to the jab time and time again.
Kattar employs a step-in elbow that graces Garcia’s melon, and Garcia gives him back several body shots to think about. Garcia dips and dodges the oncoming fire to crack Kattar with a huge left, smashing Kattar’s nose and forcing Kattar to paw at it. Garcia strikes the body when he sees an opening, and he skips forward to deliver two lefts on the chin. Garcia misses a right and left hook by a matter of inches, and he kicks the front of Kattar’s thigh to back him off. The body work from Garcia is getting Kattar to drop his hands, and he winds up with a bomb of a left that buzzes past the longtime vet. Garcia keeps doing work until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia immediately engages to start the last round, putting hands in Kattar’s face early and often. A heavy left hand drives Kattar back a ways, and he times a head kick and a spinning back fist that Garcia is able to defend. Kattar hops back and forth switching stances, but he does not engage and is just backpedaling when Garcia comes at him. Garcia reaches him with a left hand, and he loads up a subsequent bomb that nearly separates Kattar from his senses. Kattar bounces off the fence to stay afloat, and he clinches Garcia to get his head right. Garcia breaks off and chases the wounded man down, stabbing body kicks and following with liver punches that draw reactions almost every time he connects. Garcia fearlessly walks “The Boston Finisher” down, hurling one-twos and any open strike he can lob. Garcia tries for two clubbing lefts that do not get through, and he parries a front kick and pushes a left hand down the pipe.
Kattar appears to have recovered, but Garcia is not about to let him of the hook and hacks at him with a tomahawk elbow. Garcia kicks Kattar’s leg out, and he lets him back up to swing heavy leather. Kattar bites down on his mouthpiece and walks into a left hand, and he spins with an elbow that bangs square into Garcia’s temple. Garcia, blood now streaking from the bridge of his nose, boots Kattar upside the head and follows him with a left hand. He pushes Kattar back and pops him with a front kick, staying up close and looping lefts. Kattar stands him up with a right hand, and he strikes with a knee and a spinning back fist that both get part of the betting favorite. Garcia tosses windmills, and he waits for Kattar to spin so he can blast him when he plants. Garcia lets loose with a head kick and a spinning wheel kick, and Kattar knocks him back with a fierce overhand right. The two trade last strikes until time expires, and Garcia’s knockout streak has officially ended. Despite that, he still has soundly beaten a legitimate force at featherweight, and has announced himself as a new contender.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia but was initially not confident at higher odds. He notes Calvin Kattar is still a good striker with good takedown defense, but hasn't won in three years and is 37. At even money, he thinks Garcia is a decent play because he's younger and on a knockout streak, but he acknowledges Kattar has never been knocked out.

At even money, thinks Garcia is a decent play.

"Steve Garcia is the pick. I was never going to bet him at a minus 160, but at minus 110, which is unfortunately even money here, I think Steve Garcia could be a decent play."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Big Brady is a fan of Steve Garcia but picks Calvin Kattar due to durability. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times, while Kattar has never been knocked out in over 30 fights. He expects a stand-up war and believes Kattar will finish what Charlie Ontiveros started, picking Kattar by first-round knockout.

first round knockout

"Calvin Kedar to win this fight by first round knockout."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Connor picks Kattar despite his losing streak, reasoning that Kattar has fought only elite fighters and has an incredible chin that has never been cracked. He views Steve Garcia as a 'bad fighter' who closes his eyes and swings wildly, and believes Kattar's durability and experience will carry him. Connor admits he is tired of being wrong about Garcia but trusts the pattern of Kattar losing only to top-tier opponents.

"I'm going to pick Calvin Kattar. ... Steve Garcia, I think is a bad fighter."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

The host acknowledges recency bias making Garcia a slight favorite, but notes that Kattar has never been finished by knockout (except an injury). He believes this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Kattar to counter Garcia effectively and find a knockout, reminding people of his quality. The pick is based on Kattar's durability and counter-striking.

knockout

"Ton of recency bias here making Garcia a very slight favorite. And yes, he is very dangerous, especially with him coming off a fiveight winning streak with all of those wins coming by knockout. But Kater has never been finished …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent finishes (Chase Hooper, Shalan Nerd Beck) and his pressure style. He criticizes Calvin Kattar's recent performances, noting poor footwork and takedown defense since his leg injury. He expects Garcia to get in Kattar's face immediately, mix in wrestling, and finish him, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if he finds his rhythm late.

finish

"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia over Calvin Kater. ... I think he's actually gonna finish Calvin Kater here."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Steve Garcia

Zane picks Garcia, partly to avoid being mocked by a friend named Eddie for always picking against Garcia. He acknowledges that Garcia is a wild, unhinged fighter who frequently gets into trouble but has been winning. Zane notes that Kattar has slowed down and lost venom, and that Garcia's aggressive blitz could overwhelm him, similar to how Arnold Allen attacked Kattar. However, he admits Garcia is not a good technical fighter.

"I'm going to pick Steve Garcia. I'm going to say this is the day that it happens for Calvin Kattar that starting slow..."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Youssef Zalal

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Calvin Kattar	0	38 of 134	28%	38 of 134	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Youssef Zalal	0	74 of 133	55%	75 of 134	0 of 8	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Calvin Kattar	8 of 23	34%	8 of 23	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Youssef Zalal	26 of 46	56%	26 of 46	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Calvin Kattar	10 of 37	27%	10 of 37	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Youssef Zalal	27 of 46	58%	28 of 47	0 of 3	0%	0:00
3	Calvin Kattar	20 of 74	27%	20 of 74	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Youssef Zalal	21 of 41	51%	21 of 41	0 of 4	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Calvin Kattar	38 of 134	28%	27 of 110	5 of 11	6 of 13	35 of 128	3 of 6	0 of 0
Youssef Zalal	74 of 133	55%	53 of 104	5 of 9	16 of 20	74 of 133	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Calvin Kattar	8 of 23	34%	7 of 20	1 of 2	0 of 1	8 of 23	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Youssef Zalal	26 of 46	56%	16 of 33	2 of 2	8 of 11	26 of 46	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	10 of 37	27%	5 of 27	2 of 3	3 of 7	10 of 37	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Youssef Zalal	27 of 46	58%	20 of 35	2 of 5	5 of 6	27 of 46	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Calvin Kattar	20 of 74	27%	15 of 63	2 of 6	3 of 5	17 of 68	3 of 6	0 of 0
3	Youssef Zalal	21 of 41	51%	17 of 36	1 of 2	3 of 3	21 of 41	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-395), Kattar (+310)

Round 1
Records are meant to be broken, and torches are meant to be passed. It is not a guarantee of either, but rather that with enough time, everything moves forward. Itching to see if the featherweight division has passed him by entirely, 36-year-old striker Kattar (23-8, 7-6 UFC) had had a tough go of it since his fateful encounter with Max Holloway in 2021. On the other side of that metric is Zalal (16-5-1, 6-3-1 UFC), who bounced out and back into the UFC only to find himself on a solid run of three straight submissions. Whether Kattar can impose adequate resistance or be the fourth in that line, referee Dan Miragliotta will oversee it all from start to finish. Gloves are touched, and both men want to start fairly measured. Picking their shots with jabs and low kicks—a pace that has been consistent for many of the fights on this card—Zalal aims a few more times at the front leg before going up high. Zalal jabs and moves, with Kattar giving chase but not cutting him off or cornering him. Zalal is able to strafe to either side, poking with his strikes and not taking much back. They both flash jabs at the same time, and it is Zalal who follows up with a one-two. The Moroccan is comfortable at his own distance, outshooting the boxer and marking his face up with power punches. Zalal picks a jab to open up a step-in knee, and Kattar walks him down but is stuck in first gear. Zalal reaches his man with a long right hand, and they try to trip one another at the same time. Kattar buzzes the hair with a huge overhand right, and Zalal pecks at him with a left hook before zipping away. Zalal measures another knee up the middle, and Kattar’s chin has no trouble holding up. Kattar puts a little more mustard behind some punches, and Zalal is forced to book it to the side so he does not get hurt. Zalal keeps moving, Kattar keeps chasing and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal

Round 2
Fists are tapped together before they are traded in Round 2, and they let their jabs fly early. Zalal shoots in for a double, and Kattar easily stuffs it and turns to the side to break away. Zalal jabs the body and then the head, and his head movement keeps him from taking unnecessary shots. Zalal shifts to one direction, then pivots the other way, and he throws out a takedown to keep Kattar guessing. Zalal jabs Kattar up, and his leg kicks mixed in are repeatedly effective. Zalal steps in with a high knee that bounces off the eyebrow, and he checks a kick that flies his way. Zalal splits the guard with a jab and rips a kick to the ribs, and he does not slow “The Boston Finisher.” Kattar follows Zalal around the Octagon, with Zalal doing full rotations and then some while Kattar tries and fails to track him down. Kattar drops low to shoot a faked takedown, and Zalal just misses with an uppercut. “The Moroccan Devil” rifles off a kick to the side, and he chains a few jabs behind it. Kattar reaches him with his own body kick, but it is one-and-done as he is primarily headhunting with jabs. Kattar checks a kick and maintains Zalal’s respect with a scooping right hand over the shoulder, and he appears irritated that he cannot track and lock Zalal down. The horn sounds with Kattar lunging at air.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal

Round 3
There is a presumptive final glove touch leading into the last round, and Kattar has listened to his corner and is pressing the action even harder than before. Kattar’s chases have turned into borderline jogging sessions, with Zalal rapidly springing from side to side to evade attack. Kattar tries to time an uppercut, and he gets his hands on Zalal at least once in a flurry before Zalal rushes away. Kattar scores a low kick, checks one back and drops to his knees to defend and crawl away from a takedown. Kattar gets up and sprints towards Zalal with looping left hands, and Zalal pecks back with jabs. Kattar sells out and marches through a few strikes to bash Zalal in the cheek with an elbow, and Zalal’s expression changes from light-hearted to one a bit more serious. Zalal keeps hurrying away to one side, and Kattar is tracking him and winding up with big power. Zalal senses danger and slides away, marking up Kattar’s face and swelling up his right eye. Kattar reaches and connects cleanly on Zalal, who stumbles to the side and is no worse for wear. Kattar is buzzing missiles past his intended target, with Zalal doing nothing but running away while Kattar is hellbent for leather. Zalal occasionally sticks out a jab, but over the last few minutes he has been backpedaling even more than usual—drawing boos and questions of what the rule of timidity is for, if a fighter can back away from engagements for minutes at a time without being called on it. Kattar cannot get the home run strike he is looking for, and when the fight wraps, he is understandably disappointed that he got outhustled.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (29-28 Zalal)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (29-28 Zalal)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (29-28 Zalal)

The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

Angelo is extremely confident in Youssef Zalal, calling him his 'most confident pick on this card.' He highlights Zalal's momentum, improved wrestling and submissions, and Calvin Kattar's inability to defend takedowns. He also notes that Kattar's team (New England Cartel) has not proven they can stop takedowns, so he fades them against any wrestler.

"yousef's going to be the pick I'm very he's my most confident pick on this card"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

Big Brady picks Zalal by second-round submission, citing Zalal's recent finishing streak and improved aggression. Kattar is 36, on a losing streak, and had a terrible performance against Aljamain Sterling. Zalal has a grappling path and can also win on the feet with movement. He expects Zalal to take down Kattar and submit him.

submission in round 2

"give me AOW give me AOW by sub I'll say in the second round"

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

Connor picks Youssef Zalal, emphasizing Zalal's newfound confidence and flexibility. He notes that Zalal has turned a corner, becoming a more dynamic fighter who can create and take advantage of openings. Connor compares Zalal's development to a sumo wrestler who has found his center, and believes Zalal's adaptability marks him as a potential elite fighter. He acknowledges Kattar's durability and slow-start style but thinks Zalal's improved wrestling and ability to recover from difficulty will be key.

Connor comments that the odds are too wide: Kattar opened at +296 and is now +366, Zalal opened at -438 and is now -427. He says he agrees the odds are too strongly in Zalal's favor, given Kattar's cold streak should be contextualized by the level of his opponents.

"I think he has basically come out the other side of the young veteran tunnel and realized that he has spent all this time developing this fantastically well-rounded game and at the only thing that was standing between him and …"

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

Lucrative James is confident Youssef Zalal will win and cover the -400 price tag. He believes Zalal is the better striker, kickboxer, grappler, and wrestler everywhere except pure boxing, where Kattar has an edge. He highlights Zalal's elite footwork and defensive skills, noting that even Ilia Topuria struggled to land clean on him. He expects Zalal to outclass Kattar on the outside with jabs and leg kicks, and predicts a 30-27 decision. He dismisses the idea of betting Kattar as a value underdog, stating the narrative that Kattar is washed is correct.

"I believe that this week's narrative is correct and that yusf Sala is going to cover his minus 400 price tag"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)

Youssef Zalal

Zalal is the better fighter with momentum. He will remain competitive on the feet and then get the fight to the ground, showcasing his aggressive submission approach. He is more aggressive than Sterling, who couldn't finish Kattar, and will find a submission.

Zalal by submission

"I think Zalal is the better fighter and obviously the momentum is in his corner... I see a lot of people leaning on the Sterling fight... but I believe Zalal is a little bit more aggressive than Sterling... the official …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal over Calvin Kattar, citing Zalal's ability to mix it up with wrestling, low kicks, and boxing. He notes Kattar's recent losses, injuries, and susceptibility to leg kicks. He believes Zalal will chew up Kattar's legs, grapple, and win a decision, possibly with a 10-8 round.

decision

"I'm gonna go of Yousef zal over Calvin ker"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Youssef Zalal

Zane picks Youssef Zalal confidently, citing Zalal's transformation into a more confident, aggressive, and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Zalal has developed killer instinct, recovers well from difficulty, and has incorporated wrestling effectively into his flow. Zane contrasts this with Calvin Kattar's slow starts and recent losses to elite fighters, suggesting Kattar may have hit a wall stylistically. He believes Zalal is primed for a run and that this fight is a great opportunity for him to prove he's a top-10 fighter.

Zane comments that the odds are too wide: Kattar opened at +296 and is now +366, Zalal opened at -438 and is now -427. He says he agrees the odds are too strongly in Zalal's favor, given Kattar's cold streak should be contextualized by the level of his opponents.

"I'm willing to love it more for Zalalal than I don't like it for Cater because I want to see fighters in Zalalal."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Aljamain Sterling

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling	0	8 of 29	27%	19 of 40	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
Calvin Kattar	0	39 of 71	54%	89 of 128	8 of 13	61%	0	0	10:43

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 23	26%	10 of 27	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Calvin Kattar	15 of 33	45%	16 of 35	4 of 7	57%	1:51
2	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 5	40%	4 of 7	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Calvin Kattar	14 of 20	70%	30 of 37	2 of 3	66%	4:10
3	Aljamain Sterling	0 of 1	0%	5 of 6	0 of 0	---	0:05
3	Calvin Kattar	10 of 18	55%	43 of 56	2 of 3	66%	4:42

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Aljamain Sterling	8 of 29	27%	7 of 26	1 of 3	0 of 0	7 of 26	1 of 2	0 of 1
Calvin Kattar	39 of 71	54%	12 of 40	15 of 17	12 of 14	23 of 46	5 of 5	11 of 20

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Aljamain Sterling	6 of 23	26%	6 of 21	0 of 2	0 of 0	5 of 20	1 of 2	0 of 1
1	Calvin Kattar	15 of 33	45%	4 of 20	3 of 4	8 of 9	12 of 27	1 of 1	2 of 5
2	Aljamain Sterling	2 of 5	40%	1 of 4	1 of 1	0 of 0	2 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	14 of 20	70%	4 of 9	7 of 8	3 of 3	9 of 15	4 of 4	1 of 1
3	Aljamain Sterling	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Calvin Kattar	10 of 18	55%	4 of 11	5 of 5	1 of 2	2 of 4	0 of 0	8 of 14

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

"Alaine very very very slight lean as the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

"I'm going to back up with you on that one and uh take Calvin cater is dog number well we got Yuri peta's so to speak dog number one but you want a real dog we'll go with Calvin ker …"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Connor notes the line movement.

"I'm going to take a Calvin cater as well with just a huge cloud of question marks floating around."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

"I'll lean with Kattar"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

"Aljamain Sterling versus Calvin Kattar that's a really good fight I'm very excited to see how Aljo bounces back"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

decision

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

"Calvin CER will be one for me."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

"Al Jamaine Sterling the Funk Master is going to get it done he's going to show these featherweights what real grappling is."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Zane mentions the line movement.

"I am gonna, I'm gonna take Kater. I am he's the, the guys that have beat him tend to be bigger punching or more deft range strikers who can actually just handle him there."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Arnold Allen

TKO (knee injury) R2 0:08 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Arnold Allen	0	14 of 58	24%	14 of 58	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Calvin Kattar	0	28 of 67	41%	28 of 67	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:23

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Arnold Allen	14 of 57	24%	14 of 57	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Calvin Kattar	27 of 65	41%	27 of 65	0 of 0	---	0:23
2	Arnold Allen	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Calvin Kattar	1 of 2	50%	1 of 2	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Arnold Allen	14 of 58	24%	5 of 47	6 of 8	3 of 3	14 of 58	0 of 0	0 of 0
Calvin Kattar	28 of 67	41%	21 of 55	2 of 5	5 of 7	27 of 62	0 of 0	1 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Arnold Allen	14 of 57	24%	5 of 46	6 of 8	3 of 3	14 of 57	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Calvin Kattar	27 of 65	41%	21 of 54	2 of 5	4 of 6	26 of 60	0 of 0	1 of 5
2	Arnold Allen	0 of 1	0%	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	1 of 2	50%	0 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen

Round 1
The two ranked fighters on this fight card – in terms of listings on Sherdog – come to blows in its main event, as impressive technical boxer Kattar (23-6, 7-4 UFC) throws down with the streaking Allen (18-1, 9-0 UFC), who has won all nine of his trips to the UFC cage. Whether he can go 10-0 and put himself on the shortlist for championship contention in the logjammed featherweight category, he will have to get through “The Boston Finisher” first. The stakes are high, and referee Herb Dean is bringing his A-game to the headliner. Gloves are gladly touched, and it’s on with the show. Both men hunt for their range as they face off in alternating stances, pushing out jabs that bump into the other. Allen scores first with a low kick, and he lands a second as Kattar skirts out of the way. Kattar splits the guard with a jab, and Allen ignores it to double down on the calf kick. The defenses are solid thus far, with low accuracy rates and very active blocks, and as a result, they do not sit down on anything of note. Allen scores a single straight left, and Kattar responds with a snapping jab. When Kattar looks to double up on his jab, Allen settles for two kicks including one to the side. Kattar rushes forward with a clean one-two, and Allen shakes it off and walks right into a low kick. Allen gives chase but hits nothing but air, and Kattar pokes with his toes on the midsection. Allen knocks his man a step back with a left hand, and when Kattar attempts to reply, he kicks the upper thigh. Allen has a left hand get around the guard, and he chains several punches together to shake Kattar up. As Kattar backs off, Allen picks it up briefly, but he lets go before Kattar can lean on heavy counters. Allen lands a one-two across the bow, and Kattar largely uses the jab to respond. Allen scores several left hands that get Kattar’s attention, and Kattar’s face has begun to turn red. Allen comfortably lands another left hand, and he stays moving and circles fast. Kattar leaps in the air with a kick and lands awkwardly, and his right knee blows out as he falls to the ground. Allen leaps on top to strike, and he moves to set up a brabo choke but cannot secure it before the round ends. It will be interesting to see if Kattar can make it out of his corner for the second frame given the obvious injury he suffered.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
Dean calls in the doctor before the round begins, and Kattar states that he is good to go. Kattar walks around gingerly but he has his balance and can continue. Allen marches forward, knowing what his clear path to victory is, and he lashes out.
“Almighty” unleashes one almighty leg kick to the lead leg of his opponent, and as Kattar attempts to check it, his right knee buckles and gives out beneath him. Kattar falls to the ground in agony and Allen does not go in for the kill as he knows the fight is over. Dean steps between them just to make sure,
and the medical staff races in immediately after the stoppage to tend to the downed Kattar. This is an extremely unfortunate ending to this featherweight headliner, and a difficult pill to swallow for the Brit, who notches his 10th UFC win in a row. Allen is crestfallen, not just because his opponent suffered an injury, but because he states that he does not want to win like that. In his post-fight interview, Allen is put on the spot by commentator Michael Bisping, in which he calls for an interim title shot should champ Alexander Volkanovski move up in weight and be away from the division for a time. He does not call for a specific opponent, although potential options could include Josh Emmett or Yair Rodriguez. If that should come together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Arnold Allen def. Calvin Kattar R2 0:08 via TKO (Knee Injury)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by decision. He argues that Kattar's volume and pressure will be too much for Allen, who has shown low output and cardio issues in three-round fights. He notes that Kattar has never been knocked down and has gone five rounds in his last four fights, while Allen has never seen a fourth round. He believes Allen will need to hurt Kattar to win, which is unlikely given Kattar's durability.

Kattar wins by decision

"give me catering to win here and I would not be shocked if he finished Arnold Allen late but I'll say decision win for Calvin kator"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Cody argues that Arnold Allen is a low-output fighter who has been carried by close decisions and flashy finishes against declining competition. He points to Allen's low significant strike totals in many fights and notes that Calvin Kattar has landed over 100 significant strikes in his last four fights, has a cast-iron chin, and superior technical boxing and work rate. Cody expects Kattar's volume and five-round experience to wear Allen down over the distance, likely resulting in a close decision win.

"I gotta go with kader I think that the strike accumulation is going to wear off down the end and again Arnold Allen good wins but when you look at them he's not competing at the same level as Calvin …"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Arnold Allen

Daniel Levi picks Arnold Allen, citing his versatility, southpaw stance with an outside calf kick, and ability to win early rounds. He notes Allen's experience against tough competition and his own money train on Allen. He respects Kattar's durability and iron will but questions the cumulative damage from recent fights. He got Allen at +110 and is confident in the pick, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if Allen fatigues.

Bet at +110, 2 units. Would not bet at -125. Mentions Allen as one of his money trains.

"I'm betting on Arnold Allen firstly I got it at plus 110 it's currently minus 125. I did my job in terms of getting the best of the line."

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Arnold Allen

Jacob picks Arnold Allen but is scared to death. He notes Allen's counter-striking and wrestling should be key, but Kattar is a better boxer and can mix in wrestling. Jacob worries about Allen facing adversity for the first time. He calls it a coin flip.

"I'm going to pick Arnold out in this matchup but I'm scared to death"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Kattar's volume and combination striking will be too much for Allen, who tends to be low-volume and waits for moments. Allen's explosive win over Hooker was against a compromised opponent. Kattar has five-round experience and should outwork Allen over 25 minutes. The plus money on Kattar is excellent value.

Kattar by decision

"give me Calvin cater cater by decision but the fact that we can get him around plus 100 plus 105 his money line is fine here"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Paul agrees with Cody that volume is the deciding factor, noting that Kattar is obscenely durable and has five-round experience. He mentions a prop on Prize Picks for Arnold Allen over 0.5 takedowns, expecting Allen to mix in wrestling but not being a great wrestler. Paul says he'll probably end up with money on Calvin Kattar on Saturday, indicating a betting interest.

Prize Picks: Arnold Allen over 0.5 takedowns

"I'm total agreement that I think it really comes down to like you know who's throwing more over the course of five rounds and we've seen kater do it over the court like in five round fights"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar over Arnold Allen, despite expecting Allen to look great early and possibly break Kattar's nose. He doubts Allen's finishing ability and notes Allen tends to slow down in later rounds, as seen against Sadiq Yusuff. He believes Kattar's experience fighting with a broken nose and his body work will pay off, predicting Kattar wins rounds 3-5 via decision or late TKO.

"I'm going with Calvin kater here I think he's gonna get busted up in the first round broken nose... but if Emmett can't KO you I don't think Arnold Allen can"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Josh Emmett

Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Josh Emmett	0	130 of 375	34%	131 of 376	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Calvin Kattar	0	107 of 332	32%	107 of 332	0 of 4	0%	0	0	0:04

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Josh Emmett	14 of 39	35%	15 of 40	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Calvin Kattar	11 of 35	31%	11 of 35	0 of 1	0%	0:02
2	Josh Emmett	22 of 78	28%	22 of 78	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Calvin Kattar	26 of 73	35%	26 of 73	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Josh Emmett	19 of 66	28%	19 of 66	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Calvin Kattar	27 of 77	35%	27 of 77	0 of 0	---	0:00
4	Josh Emmett	41 of 106	38%	41 of 106	0 of 0	---	0:00
4	Calvin Kattar	21 of 80	26%	21 of 80	0 of 2	0%	0:02
5	Josh Emmett	34 of 86	39%	34 of 86	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Calvin Kattar	22 of 67	32%	22 of 67	0 of 1	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Josh Emmett	130 of 375	34%	114 of 351	15 of 23	1 of 1	130 of 375	0 of 0	0 of 0
Calvin Kattar	107 of 332	32%	73 of 286	26 of 37	8 of 9	106 of 330	1 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Josh Emmett	14 of 39	35%	12 of 36	1 of 2	1 of 1	14 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Calvin Kattar	11 of 35	31%	8 of 32	1 of 1	2 of 2	10 of 33	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Josh Emmett	22 of 78	28%	20 of 76	2 of 2	0 of 0	22 of 78	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	26 of 73	35%	19 of 63	6 of 9	1 of 1	26 of 73	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Josh Emmett	19 of 66	28%	18 of 62	1 of 4	0 of 0	19 of 66	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Calvin Kattar	27 of 77	35%	18 of 65	8 of 11	1 of 1	27 of 77	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Josh Emmett	41 of 106	38%	35 of 98	6 of 8	0 of 0	41 of 106	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Calvin Kattar	21 of 80	26%	13 of 68	5 of 9	3 of 3	21 of 80	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Josh Emmett	34 of 86	39%	29 of 79	5 of 7	0 of 0	34 of 86	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Calvin Kattar	22 of 67	32%	15 of 58	6 of 7	1 of 2	22 of 67	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Angelo picks Calvin Kattar, citing his superior boxing, footwork, and technique. He notes Kattar's 90% takedown defense and believes he can avoid Emmett's power. He acknowledges the possibility of Emmett winning by power and damage (like Font vs Vera) but thinks Kattar's pressure and volume will win the decision.

"i do like calvin qatar to win with his footwork and his technique but it's not completely out of the question that calvin vs emmett looks like font vs vera"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Kattar is younger, taller, and has a reach advantage, and is the better striker with excellent boxing combinations. He acknowledges Emmett's power and seven-fight knockdown streak, but trusts Kattar's chin (never knocked down) and believes Kattar's volume and length will wear Emmett down for a late finish.

fourth round knockout

"I like calvin keator to win i like common cater i'll say to win bye i'll say fourth round knockout for calvin keator"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Cody believes Calvin Kattar's volume and technical striking will overwhelm Josh Emmett over five rounds. He notes Emmett's power is dangerous but Kattar's durability and head movement are elite, and Emmett rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kattar to pull away late and suggests Kattar by decision as a prop.

Calvin Kattar by decision

"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Daniel Levi leans Calvin Kattar as the minute winner, believing Kattar's jab and improved striking variety will keep him ahead on the scorecards. However, he emphasizes that Josh Emmett's one-punch power and ability to steal rounds make this a dog-or-pass betting situation, especially with Kattar at -230. He notes Kattar absorbs a lot of strikes and Emmett has knocked down every featherweight opponent, so a finish is possible either way. Levi ultimately sees it as a coin flip and prefers not to lay the heavy juice.

dog or pass situation; Kattar -230 is too high; Emmett +195 is tempting

"i lean cater it's just minus 250 odds are not indicative of a coin flip fight so i see this at the betting window being a dogger pass situation"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Kattar's volume and technical superiority. He points out that Emmett's power is a threat but Kattar's durability and five-round experience favor him. He notes the over/under is set high, suggesting a decision is likely, and he picks Kattar as the rightful favorite.

"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar, trusting his technique and durability. He notes that Josh Emmett has power but has struggled against tough opponents like Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. He believes Kattar has better boxing, a good chin, and a front kick to keep Emmett at distance. He predicts Kattar will get hurt early but recover and finish Emmett in the third round via TKO.

third round tko

"i'm going with cater over emmett... i see calvin kater getting this one done by third round tko"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Giga Chikadze

Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Calvin Kattar	1	144 of 402	35%	157 of 418	2 of 7	28%	1	1	3:42
Giga Chikadze	0	128 of 347	36%	129 of 348	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Calvin Kattar	0	4 of 7	57%	17 of 23	1 of 1	100%	1	1	3:19
1	Giga Chikadze	0	8 of 19	42%	9 of 20	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:09
2	Calvin Kattar	0	28 of 81	34%	28 of 81	1 of 2	50%	0	0	0:08
2	Giga Chikadze	0	38 of 99	38%	38 of 99	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
3	Calvin Kattar	0	25 of 87	28%	25 of 87	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:08
3	Giga Chikadze	0	22 of 67	32%	22 of 67	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
4	Calvin Kattar	0	36 of 102	35%	36 of 102	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:02
4	Giga Chikadze	0	28 of 70	40%	28 of 70	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
5	Calvin Kattar	1	51 of 125	40%	51 of 125	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
5	Giga Chikadze	0	32 of 92	34%	32 of 92	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Calvin Kattar	144 of 402	35%	127 of 369	13 of 28	4 of 5	135 of 390	2 of 2	7 of 10
Giga Chikadze	128 of 347	36%	94 of 297	27 of 41	7 of 9	127 of 344	1 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Calvin Kattar	4 of 7	57%	2 of 5	0 of 0	2 of 2	3 of 5	0 of 0	1 of 2
1	Giga Chikadze	8 of 19	42%	4 of 14	2 of 2	2 of 3	8 of 19	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	28 of 81	34%	26 of 77	2 of 3	0 of 1	23 of 75	2 of 2	3 of 4
2	Giga Chikadze	38 of 99	38%	30 of 89	8 of 10	0 of 0	38 of 99	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Calvin Kattar	25 of 87	28%	22 of 78	3 of 9	0 of 0	25 of 87	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Giga Chikadze	22 of 67	32%	18 of 61	1 of 2	3 of 4	22 of 67	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Calvin Kattar	36 of 102	35%	32 of 94	3 of 7	1 of 1	36 of 102	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Giga Chikadze	28 of 70	40%	20 of 57	6 of 11	2 of 2	27 of 67	1 of 3	0 of 0
5	Calvin Kattar	51 of 125	40%	45 of 115	5 of 9	1 of 1	48 of 121	0 of 0	3 of 4
5	Giga Chikadze	32 of 92	34%	22 of 76	10 of 16	0 of 0	32 of 92	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Calvin Kattar vs. Giga Chikadze

Round 1
The main event kicks off, with referee Keith Peterson having banished all vestiges of nonsense from the premises by means of ancient, arcane and forbidden magic. The first strike of the fight is a right outside leg kick by Chikadze. He lands another, then a front kick to the chin. Kattar is coming forward, switching stances and throwing jabs from both sides. Chikadze is backpedaling and using lateral movement to avoid being backed into the fence. Chikadze lands a low kick, followed by a kick to the body. Kattar times the next one and explodes forward for a huge takedown. Kattar lands in half guard. Two minutes gone in the round, and Kattar is heavy on top, denying a hip escape. Kattar looking to pass to side control, but can’t. Chikadze stuffs him back to a deep half guard. Kattar briefly contemplates isolating the far arm, but Chikadze is active with his hips and Kattar is forced to hold him down. Chikadze grabs a guillotine, but Kattar hops to the opposite side. Chikadze sweeps to top, but Kattar has an arm-triangle from the bottom and moves to the back. Kattar is working with a body triangle from the back, throwing punches as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar

Round 2
Chikadze lands a solid body kick. Kattar comes into punching range and Chikadze lands a pair of hooks to the body, followed by a left kick. Kattar counters a body kick with a sharp left hand. Kattar is still coming forward relentlessly, switching stances frequently, and Chikadze is having trouble adjusting, even as he lands. Kattar lands a hard right hook that hurts Chikadze. Kattar tries dropping for a single leg, but Chikadze evades it easily. Kattar lands a two-punch combination, followed by a step-in elbow. Chikadze retreats, and Kattar keeps the pressure on. Under a minute left, and “The Boston Finisher” has all the momentum. Chikadze lands a pair of punches, and Kattar responds with a spinning back elbow that lands flush. Kattar lands a takedown at the 10-second clapper and nails Chikadze with a couple of punches before he can stand. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar

Round 3
Kattar continues to come forward, pressuring Chikadze, and lands a one-two. Kattar is in control, and Chikadze is starting to look tired, discouraged or both. Chikadze lands an outside calf kick, then another. Kattar lands a right cross, and Chikadze whiffs on a counter. Kattar drops for a single-leg and chases Chikadze all the way across the Octagon with it, where the Georgian uses a fence grab to steady himself, lets it go quickly, but not before it succeeds in foiling the takedown. Under two minutes left and they’re standing in the center of the cage again. Kattar’s jab is busting Chikadze up. Chikadze lands a pair of hard punches, but stumbles afterward, off-balance or just fatigued. Kattar comes forward with 30 seconds left and throws a one-two and a body kick. Chikadze catches Kattar with a flush right and takes another back elbow for his trouble, right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar

Round 4
The main event rounds open up with both men’s face showing wear, but Chikadze’s more so. Kattar walks him down and lands a jab. And another. Chikadze denies a takedown attempt against the cage. Kattar’s jab is once again right in Chikadze’s face as the Bostonian moves forward. Kattar throws another step-in elbow. Chikadze throws a body kick, but Kattar punishes him with a three-punch combo. Halfway through the round, Kattar catches a kick and marches forward, throwing punches while holding the leg. Chikadze lands a solid straight left, but the volume advantage is definitely with Kattar. They land simultaneous jabs. Kattar has busted the right eye of Chikadze badly, cuts above as well as below. The horn sounds on another easy Kattar round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar

Round 5
The final round begins as the other four did, with Kattar marching forward and cutting off the cage, but Chikadze explodes forward and tags him with a flurry of punches. Kattar keeps coming, though, and lands his own relentless volley of jabs. Chikadze lands a body kick, but Kattar is just overwhelming him. Kattar lands a high kick of his own. Chikadze comes forward, and Kattar counters with elbow strikes from both sides, then throws a kick up the middle. The round hits its halfway point, and Chikadze is still doing his best to find the finish he clearly knows he needs, but Kattar is far fresher and answering everything with two or more strikes to one. Kattar begins looking for bigger single shots on the flagging Chikadze, and lands a couple, leaving the Georgian stumbling backward. Kattar lands another spinning back elbow. Chikadze throws a kick up the middle. Under 30 seconds left and both men are still looking for the knockout. Kattar drops Chikadze with an elbow strike with under 10 seconds left, and referee Peterson looks on closely as he follows up with punches, but the round expires. Complete bell-to-bell performance by Calvin Kattar.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (50-45 Kattar)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (50-45 Kattar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (50-45 Kattar)

The Official Result
Calvin Kattar def. Giga Chikadze via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Giga Chikadze

Angelo picks Chikadze as the safe pick, citing his phenomenal striking, kicks, and range management. He notes Kattar is a live underdog with excellent boxing and a wrestling background that could pose problems if he pressures. He mentions possibly sprinkling a bet on Kattar.

May sprinkle a bet on Kattar as underdog.

"geek is the pick but that's a safe pick calvin qatar is very live here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Giga Chikadze

Big Brady admits he has been a Giga Chikadze hater but acknowledges Giga's improvements, especially his cardio in the Omar Morales fight. He notes Giga has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in the past, while Calvin Kattar has a steel chin and absorbs strikes. Brady expects Giga to win the first three rounds and take a decision, but is hesitant due to the five-round distance and Kattar's durability. He does not like the moneyline at -233 and would not bet it.

"I'm going to say giga chicago does win this fight i'm going to say he does win a decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Giga Chikadze

Cody picks Giga Chikadze, emphasizing his clean kickboxing and ability to dictate range with kicks. He notes Kattar struggles against longer opponents and that Giga's cardio looked solid in recent fights. He worries about Giga's takedown defense but doubts Kattar will wrestle. He suggests betting Kattar live after the second or third round if he survives the early onslaught.

Consider hedging on Kattar after round 2 or 3 if he survives

"as far as striker versus striker goes gotta go with the better striker better striker is giga just don't love the price tag"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Giga Chikadze

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win and be the first to finish Calvin Kattar via strikes. He argues that Kattar is a one-dimensional boxer with a negative strike differential, and that Giga's diverse striking—especially body kicks and head kicks—will be too much. He notes Giga has improved his cardio and grappling, citing his anaconda attempt on Barboza and brown belt in jiu-jitsu. Levi acknowledges Kattar's toughness and right hand but believes Giga's precision and power will prevail. He placed 5 units on Giga at -215.

5 units at -215

"I think giga chikazi is going to be the first man in mma history to finish calvin kater via strikes and i think he's going to open a lot of eyes so yeah give me giga chikazi i put five …"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Giga Chikadze

The host believes Giga Chikadze's kick-heavy game plan will be the key to victory, targeting Calvin Kattar's legs which have historically been a weakness. He notes that Kattar is the better technical boxer, but Chikadze's diverse kicking attacks (leg, body, head) and ability to switch targets will slow Kattar down. The host is confident Chikadze can implement this strategy effectively, though he acknowledges the fight could go the distance if Kattar absorbs the kicks and keeps moving forward. He ultimately picks Chikadze by decision, but also considers an inside-the-distance finish possible.

Decision prop at +325, over 2.5 rounds at -135 mentioned as possible bets.

"i'll go to kaze... i'm stuck between decision and inside the distance honestly... i'm gonna go chicago just staying methodical staying cerebral as well and just staying on the outside letting those leg kicks go"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Giga Chikadze

Paul leans toward Giga Chikadze as the better striker, noting that if the fight stays at kicking range, Kattar will get torn up. He acknowledges Kattar's boxing and pressure but believes Giga's kicks and range control are decisive. He mentions the line is close to accurate but doesn't love the -235 price. He suggests Kattar might have a path via wrestling, but considers it unlikely.

"if this fight takes place at kicking range uh you got to imagine that calvin kater is going to get torn up completely"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Giga Chikadze

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze to win by decision, citing Chikadze's superior kicking game and Kattar's well-known vulnerability to leg kicks, as exposed by Renato Moicano. He notes that Kattar is a slow starter who struggles with kicks, and coming off a year-long layoff after taking massive damage against Max Holloway, he expects Kattar to be even more hesitant early. Chikadze's activity (three fights in the past year) and improved takedown defense are also factors, as Kattar is unlikely to wrestle. However, he acknowledges Kattar is a good underdog and could pull off an upset if he survives the early kicking onslaught.

Kattar is a good underdog at nearly 2-to-1 odds; Chikadze is a 2-to-1 favorite. Prediction: Chikadze by decision (49-46).

"i'm gonna go with the gigachicken but don't be surprised if qatar gets the upset man"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Max Holloway

Decision (unanimous) (50–43, 50–43, 50–42) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Max Holloway	0	445 of 744	59%	447 of 746	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:27
Calvin Kattar	0	133 of 283	47%	134 of 284	0 of 2	0%	0	0	0:05

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Max Holloway	56 of 108	51%	56 of 108	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Calvin Kattar	24 of 47	51%	24 of 47	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Max Holloway	89 of 164	54%	89 of 164	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Calvin Kattar	20 of 48	41%	20 of 48	0 of 1	0%	0:03
3	Max Holloway	75 of 139	53%	77 of 141	0 of 0	---	0:13
3	Calvin Kattar	29 of 59	49%	30 of 60	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Max Holloway	141 of 191	73%	141 of 191	0 of 1	0%	0:14
4	Calvin Kattar	34 of 71	47%	34 of 71	0 of 0	---	0:02
5	Max Holloway	84 of 142	59%	84 of 142	0 of 0	---	0:00
5	Calvin Kattar	26 of 58	44%	26 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Max Holloway	445 of 744	59%	274 of 553	117 of 133	54 of 58	439 of 737	6 of 7	0 of 0
Calvin Kattar	133 of 283	47%	99 of 237	16 of 23	18 of 23	129 of 279	4 of 4	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Max Holloway	56 of 108	51%	30 of 75	15 of 20	11 of 13	56 of 108	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Calvin Kattar	24 of 47	51%	13 of 34	2 of 2	9 of 11	24 of 47	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Max Holloway	89 of 164	54%	53 of 127	25 of 25	11 of 12	87 of 161	2 of 3	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	20 of 48	41%	14 of 41	4 of 5	2 of 2	19 of 47	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Max Holloway	75 of 139	53%	53 of 111	13 of 19	9 of 9	73 of 137	2 of 2	0 of 0
3	Calvin Kattar	29 of 59	49%	25 of 51	3 of 5	1 of 3	28 of 58	1 of 1	0 of 0
4	Max Holloway	141 of 191	73%	89 of 135	45 of 48	7 of 8	139 of 189	2 of 2	0 of 0
4	Calvin Kattar	34 of 71	47%	27 of 63	5 of 6	2 of 2	32 of 69	2 of 2	0 of 0
5	Max Holloway	84 of 142	59%	49 of 105	19 of 21	16 of 16	84 of 142	0 of 0	0 of 0
5	Calvin Kattar	26 of 58	44%	20 of 48	2 of 5	4 of 5	26 of 58	0 of 0	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Max Holloway

Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by decision. He notes that Holloway has only lost to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier, McGregor) and that Kattar is a big step up in competition. He highlights Kattar's poor striking defense, absorbing more than he lands (5.66 vs 5.01), which is a red flag against Holloway's volume. He also mentions Holloway's motivation after two losses and that he looked great in his last fight. He believes Kattar's only path is a knockout, but Holloway hasn't been knocked out in 27 fights.

"i'm going to take max holloway to win here by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar for the upset, citing Kattar's power and ability to land hard shots that could sway judges. He notes Holloway's ego and emotional issues may have cost him the Volk rematch, and that Holloway absorbs many head strikes. He believes Kattar doesn't need to match volume but land the cleaner, harder shots over five rounds.

"i'm gonna go with calvin uh for the upset"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Kattar is the more technical striker with crisp hands and a piston-like jab. He matches Holloway in height and reach, which neutralizes Holloway's typical range advantage. Holloway has been hurt in past fights and Kattar has the power to finish. Kattar's cardio held up in a five-round fight against Dan Ige, and his New England Cartel camp is on a hot streak. The main concern is Holloway's volume, but Kattar's cleaner striking should win rounds.

Kattar by decision is the primary pick, but a finish is possible given Holloway's durability questions.

"I like cater here I wouldn't even be surprised if he gets a knockout too because holloway's been hurt a lot"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)

Max Holloway

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Calvin Kattar, citing Holloway's improved kicking game, five-round experience, and youth. He notes Kattar's broken nose as a major vulnerability, expecting Holloway to target it with jabs. He predicts Holloway will win four rounds to one, with Kattar taking the first round before Holloway makes adjustments. He also questions Kattar's KO power, noting he hasn't faced a chin like Holloway's.

"i just see max holloway winning himself a fun exciting competitive decision four rounds to one i think qatar wins the first round"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Dan Ige

Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige · Jul 16, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Calvin Kattar	0	105 of 260	40%	107 of 262	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:06
Dan Ige	0	84 of 218	38%	87 of 221	0 of 9	0%	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Calvin Kattar	20 of 46	43%	20 of 46	1 of 1	100%	0:39
1	Dan Ige	13 of 36	36%	16 of 39	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Calvin Kattar	15 of 39	38%	15 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Dan Ige	18 of 45	40%	18 of 45	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Calvin Kattar	21 of 63	33%	21 of 63	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Dan Ige	20 of 49	40%	20 of 49	0 of 1	0%	0:00
4	Calvin Kattar	21 of 57	36%	22 of 58	0 of 0	---	0:19
4	Dan Ige	16 of 36	44%	16 of 36	0 of 4	0%	0:03
5	Calvin Kattar	28 of 55	50%	29 of 56	0 of 0	---	0:08
5	Dan Ige	17 of 52	32%	17 of 52	0 of 3	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Calvin Kattar	105 of 260	40%	70 of 211	19 of 32	16 of 17	95 of 236	1 of 3	9 of 21
Dan Ige	84 of 218	38%	37 of 150	30 of 46	17 of 22	82 of 216	2 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Calvin Kattar	20 of 46	43%	11 of 34	9 of 11	0 of 1	17 of 38	0 of 0	3 of 8
1	Dan Ige	13 of 36	36%	7 of 26	4 of 7	2 of 3	13 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Calvin Kattar	15 of 39	38%	13 of 34	2 of 5	0 of 0	15 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Dan Ige	18 of 45	40%	7 of 32	6 of 7	5 of 6	18 of 45	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Calvin Kattar	21 of 63	33%	14 of 52	3 of 7	4 of 4	21 of 63	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Dan Ige	20 of 49	40%	7 of 29	8 of 15	5 of 5	20 of 49	0 of 0	0 of 0
4	Calvin Kattar	21 of 57	36%	12 of 47	2 of 3	7 of 7	18 of 51	0 of 1	3 of 5
4	Dan Ige	16 of 36	44%	10 of 27	4 of 6	2 of 3	14 of 34	2 of 2	0 of 0
5	Calvin Kattar	28 of 55	50%	20 of 44	3 of 6	5 of 5	24 of 45	1 of 2	3 of 8
5	Dan Ige	17 of 52	32%	6 of 36	8 of 11	3 of 5	17 of 52	0 of 0	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2020 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win, noting that the five-round fight favors Kattar's superior cardio. He believes Dan Ige will struggle to get takedowns due to Kattar's 77% takedown defense, and that Ige's cardio is questionable even in three-round fights. He predicts a finish in the fourth or fifth round, calling Kattar the 'Boston Finisher' and referencing his nasty elbow in his last fight.

Parlayed Kattar with Khamzat Chimaev at around -110; notes Kattar's line moved from -240 to -310

"I parlayed Kamara Oman with something on this card and that somebody is Calvin cater and I like that partly a lot"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar to finish Dan Ige, citing Kattar's best hands in the division and his ability to maintain pressure over five rounds. He believes Ige may have early success but Kattar will take over and knock him out, possibly earning a title shot.

by knockout

"I got Calvin by knockout you know at some point in this fight"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

The Guru picks Calvin Kattar, highlighting his impressive wins over Jeremy Stephens, Josh Emmett, Shane Burgos, and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Kattar's jab and power will be key, and that Dan Ige lacks the power to knock him out. He predicts Kattar may lose the first round due to Ige's volume but will adjust and land a big shot for a TKO in round 2. He also notes Ige's underrated grappling but thinks Kattar's takedown defense is solid.

TKO round 2

"I think Calvin Qatar goes out there puts hands on Danny gay probably loses the first round but when he covers up he's watching the entire time Calvin Qatar's got a slick jab I think he watches the entire first …"

THE MMA GURU

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Expert Picks (9)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

"Alaine very very very slight lean as the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

"I'm going to back up with you on that one and uh take Calvin cater is dog number well we got Yuri peta's so to speak dog number one but you want a real dog we'll go with Calvin ker for dog number two."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Connor notes the line movement.

"I'm going to take a Calvin cater as well with just a huge cloud of question marks floating around."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

"I'll lean with Kattar"

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

No clear pick

"Aljamain Sterling versus Calvin Kattar that's a really good fight I'm very excited to see how Aljo bounces back"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

decision

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Calvin Kattar

"Calvin CER will be one for me."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Aljamain Sterling

"Al Jamaine Sterling the Funk Master is going to get it done he's going to show these featherweights what real grappling is."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Calvin Kattar

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Zane mentions the line movement.

"I am gonna, I'm gonna take Kater. I am he's the, the guys that have beat him tend to be bigger punching or more deft range strikers who can actually just handle him there."

MMA Vivisection