UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Next Fight
Age 42
Height 5' 11"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 34
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jared Cannonier
4.42 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.35 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.54 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Gregory Rodrigues
5.53 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.78 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.9 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Jared Cannonier
Moneyline
DraftKings +210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +360
Submission
BetRivers +3500
Decision
BetRivers +750
Gregory Rodrigues
Moneyline
BetWay -225
KO/TKO
FanDuel +135
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
FanDuel +470
Jared Cannonier - Fight History
UFC Fight Night 281 · Jul 18, 2026
LOSS vs Michael Page
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 0 20 of 57 35% 46 of 88 2 of 7 28% 0 0 8:14
Michael Page 0 29 of 55 52% 36 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 2 of 16 12% 10 of 24 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:10
Michael Page 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Cannonier 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:56
Michael Page 0 11 of 20 55% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Jared Cannonier 0 8 of 16 50% 24 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Michael Page 0 7 of 15 46% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 20 of 57 35% 10 of 45 4 of 6 6 of 6 11 of 45 3 of 4 6 of 8
Michael Page 29 of 55 52% 19 of 45 8 of 8 2 of 2 27 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 2 of 16 12% 0 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Page 11 of 20 55% 5 of 14 5 of 5 1 of 1 10 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 10 of 25 40% 3 of 16 3 of 5 4 of 4 7 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Page 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 8
Michael Page 7 of 15 46% 5 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

Angelo believes this is a tailor-made matchup for MVP, as his speed and karate style will be too much for the powerful but slow Cannonier. He notes MVP has outstruck everyone in the UFC, including Ian Garry, and can pop in and out safely. He is surprisingly confident in MVP.

"This is a tailor made matchup for MVP. He can dance on the outside and rush in. Jared Cantaner is powerful, but he's not fast."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes Page is an incredible striker with a unique style that makes him hard to hit, and he has outlanded top strikers like Ian Garry and Kevin Holland. He thinks Cannonier will struggle to take Page down, as Cannonier has only one fight with more than one takedown. He favors Page heavily in distance striking and thinks Page wins a decision, possibly a knockout. He also mentions a prop bet on Page under 54.5 significant strikes.

Page under 54.5 significant strikes (Sleeper)
"I like Paige here. I think Paige wins a decision. Potentially even knocks out Caner, but I'll say decision here for Michael Paige."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

Connor picks Page, arguing that Page can frustrate Cannonier from range and that Cannonier is slowing down and less likely to have fight-stealing moments. He notes that Page is comfortable with boring fights and can make Cannonier look slow and cumbersome. However, he acknowledges that Cannonier's strength in the clinch could be a problem, but Page's ability to tie up after striking may mitigate that.

Cannonier opened at +115, currently +165; Page opened at -135, currently -190
"I'm still going to pick page. I think that he can really frustrate Cannonier."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

The host believes Page's elusive striking style will be too much for the veteran Cannonier. He predicts Page will pick apart Cannonier and eventually find a knockout in the second round.

knockout in the second round
"I believe the elusive striking style of Paige will be too much for the veteran here and I think that we'll see him pick apart Canoneer and I think that would eventually lead to him finding that knockout in the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

The Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by decision over Jared Cannonier. He believes Cannonier will be too technical and hesitant to pressure Page effectively, instead opting for a low-output striking match. The Guru notes that Cannonier has a history of not taking risks, as seen in his fights with Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa. He expects Page to outpoint Cannonier with movement and occasional highlights, winning a dull decision.

Decision win for MVP; low output fight; MVP lands about 22 significant strikes
"I'm going with Michael Venom Page over Jared Cananeer. ... I think Caner is going to lose a decision and I think it's going to be a fight where we're like why wasn't Canoneir risking it for the biscuit?"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Page

Zane picks Page, noting that Page is a master of body language and can make even close rounds feel like his. He believes Cannonier is a middleweight version of Josh Koscheck, a tough but limited fighter who is winding down. Zane thinks Page's ability to pick his shots and avoid engagement will frustrate Cannonier, who doesn't cut off the cage well. He sees Page as a meme fighter who can carve a path to the top of the division.

Cannonier opened at +115, currently +165; Page opened at -135, currently -190
"I think I'll take page as well. I think, I mean, this is the thing with Michael Page and why he's so annoying to fight."
KO R4 0:21 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 2 98 of 201 48% 109 of 215 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
Gregory Rodrigues 2 93 of 221 42% 95 of 225 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 22 of 38 57% 31 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Gregory Rodrigues 2 25 of 66 37% 26 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Jared Cannonier 0 33 of 72 45% 35 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Gregory Rodrigues 0 25 of 68 36% 26 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 1 34 of 78 43% 34 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Gregory Rodrigues 0 43 of 87 49% 43 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Jared Cannonier 1 9 of 13 69% 9 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 98 of 201 48% 59 of 157 20 of 23 19 of 21 69 of 161 20 of 25 9 of 15
Gregory Rodrigues 93 of 221 42% 65 of 188 21 of 25 7 of 8 85 of 208 8 of 12 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 22 of 38 57% 10 of 25 5 of 5 7 of 8 15 of 30 7 of 8 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 25 of 66 37% 16 of 53 8 of 11 1 of 2 19 of 56 6 of 9 0 of 1
2 Jared Cannonier 33 of 72 45% 15 of 50 11 of 14 7 of 8 28 of 65 5 of 7 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 25 of 68 36% 16 of 59 5 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 34 of 78 43% 27 of 71 2 of 2 5 of 5 22 of 59 3 of 4 9 of 15
Gregory Rodrigues 43 of 87 49% 33 of 76 8 of 9 2 of 2 41 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 9 of 13 69% 7 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 5 of 6 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40) as a key factor. He notes that Cannonier's chin and speed are declining, and while Cannonier may have early success, Rodrigues has enough power and grappling to turn the fight. Angelo also mentions he might bet the under on 4.5 rounds if the prop is available.

under 4.5 rounds (if available)
"Gregory is the pick and if we get a four and a half round line I I might Hammer that under"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout, noting Cannonier's decline in durability and performance. Cannonier was outclassed by Caio Borralho and wobbled by Vettori. Rodrigues is younger and has power, though his own chin is questionable. He expects Rodrigues to land a big shot and finish Cannonier.

knockout in round 2
"give me Ro Rodriguez and I think he stops cider in this fight I give give me Rodriguez by second round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Connor picks Jared Cannonier, though hesitantly. He acknowledges Cannonier has lost a step and is on a slide, but believes this is a level of fight Cannonier can still win. He points to Cannonier's hand speed, counter-punching, and ability to time counters against Rodrigues' defensive liabilities. Connor also notes that Cannonier has been competitive with top fighters like Imavov and Bahaio, and that Rodrigues' tendency to get caught by surprise makes him susceptible to Cannonier's power. However, he admits the version of Cannonier that gets big finishes might be gone, and he can also envision Cannonier getting crushed.

Connor mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"I still feel inclined to pick Canoneer though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues despite acknowledging his suspect chin, because Jared Cannonier is 40 years old and has taken severe damage in recent fights, especially the brutal KO loss to Caio Borralho just five and a half months ago. He believes Cannonier's age and accumulated punishment make him vulnerable to Rodrigues' power and pressure. However, he notes that Rodrigues gets hit often and has been knocked out by lesser fighters, so he is not fully confident. He also mentions that Cannonier is live for a KO and may play a small prop on Cannonier by KO. He strongly recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to distance' at -250, seeing value there.

Fight doesn't go to distance at -250; under 2.5 rounds at -125; small play on Jared Cannonier by KO
"I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez and the reason I'm doing that is because of Jared's age because of the punishment he has took"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Cannonier is on a downward slope at nearly 41 years old. Rodrigues will use pace, pressure, and power to take advantage of Cannonier's diminishing durability and speed. Cannonier has been hurt in recent fights, and Rodrigues finishes him in the second or third round.

Rodrigues inside the distance, round 2 or 3
"Look for Rodriguez to utilize a solid pace and pressure and really leaning on that power... I think Rodriguez can put a stamp on this matchup by getting a finish in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40), recent damage, and lack of recent knockouts. He highlights Rodrigues' size, grappling advantage, power, and youth. He believes Rodrigues has multiple paths to victory: knockout, takedown and ground control, or submission, while Cannonier has fewer options.

"I'm going to trust in Gregory Rodriguez getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Cannonier has lost a step and no longer has the finishing ability to capitalize on Rodrigues' defensive lapses. He notes that Cannonier's tactical, non-strategic style means he gives opponents infinite chances, and with age and declining durability, those chances are now breaking against him. Zane also highlights Rodrigues' improved wrestling and strategic approach, as seen in the Brad Tavares fight, as key factors. He acknowledges Cannonier could still catch Rodrigues, but trusts the math less for Cannonier now.

Zane mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"But now I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez because I don't think that Cannon here is ever going to take this fight over from Rodriguez."
LOSS vs Caio Borralho
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–45, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Caio Borralho 0 83 of 254 32% 83 of 254 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 1 153 of 255 60% 156 of 258 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Caio Borralho 0 12 of 34 35% 12 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Caio Borralho 0 26 of 70 37% 26 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 21 of 43 48% 21 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Caio Borralho 0 15 of 58 25% 15 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 37 of 58 63% 37 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Caio Borralho 0 19 of 50 38% 19 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 30 of 53 56% 30 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Caio Borralho 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 1 50 of 69 72% 53 of 72 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Caio Borralho 83 of 254 32% 57 of 206 11 of 24 15 of 24 82 of 252 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 153 of 255 60% 106 of 197 26 of 37 21 of 21 129 of 224 2 of 3 22 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Caio Borralho 12 of 34 35% 4 of 23 2 of 2 6 of 9 12 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 15 of 32 46% 7 of 22 4 of 6 4 of 4 15 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Caio Borralho 26 of 70 37% 18 of 53 4 of 9 4 of 8 25 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 21 of 43 48% 14 of 34 2 of 4 5 of 5 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Caio Borralho 15 of 58 25% 14 of 54 0 of 1 1 of 3 15 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 37 of 58 63% 24 of 44 10 of 11 3 of 3 36 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Caio Borralho 19 of 50 38% 11 of 38 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 30 of 53 56% 19 of 37 5 of 10 6 of 6 30 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Caio Borralho 11 of 42 26% 10 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 50 of 69 72% 42 of 60 5 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 40 1 of 1 22 of 28
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Caio Borralho

Angelo picks Caio Borralho, citing his high fight IQ and slick grappling. He notes that Borralho is a 'fighting nerd' who makes smart adjustments mid-fight, and that his head is massive and hard to put out. He acknowledges Cannonier's power and the short notice for both, but believes Borralho's intelligence and size advantage will carry him.

"Kyo is going to be the pick I think this is short notice for both of them... Kyo is bigger than 6'1 he's probably 6'2 he's a big dude and his head is like a cow's head"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Cody thinks the betting line on Borralho is inflated. He notes Cannonier is a tough veteran who has fought top competition and has good takedown defense and get-up game. He believes Borralho may try to be entertaining instead of wrestling, which plays into Cannonier's hands. He also mentions Cannonier's price of +190 is too good to pass up.

"I think this number is insane... Canon ear plus 190 I bet it if it keeps getting bigger I'm gonna bet it more"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Daniel Vreeland is not fully confident but leans toward Jared Cannonier. He argues that Borralho's competition has been unranked and his striking volume is low, while Cannonier has proven output against top fighters. He worries about Cannonier's age and recent stoppage loss but believes the volume and experience advantage will be decisive unless Cannonier has declined overnight.

"I think that Jared is gonna neutralize the grappling and bust them up standing and I think the volume difference is going to be huge"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Caio Borralho

JP picks Borralho by decision, noting he is 6-0 in the UFC and hasn't lost since 2015. He highlights Borralho's grappling match against heavyweight Jilton Almeida as evidence of his skills. He thinks Cannonier is 40 and inconsistent. Brevin agrees, picking Borralho, praising his striking style similar to Michael Venom Page with explosive entries, and his good grappling. He thinks Cannonier will try to pressure but Borralho's in-and-out movement will be effective.

"I'm taking barho uh Bario's 6-0 in the UFC hasn't lost since 2015 and we're talking about jarro caner wanting to ragdoll people barho had a grappling match against jilton Almeida"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Paul agrees with Cody, favoring Cannonier because of his experience and plus money. He notes Cannonier is 40 and coming off knee surgery but has fought the best. He thinks Borralho might try to be aggressive to impress, which could lead to his demise. Paul also mentions that Borralho's low volume and risk-averse style might not work against a durable veteran.

"I'm favoring koner as well one CU he's plus money but two just basically everything you've mentioned he's fought all the best guys of the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Caio Borralho

The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho by rear-naked choke. He notes Cannonier's takedown defense is good but he gives up his back often. He believes Borralho's back-take ability and momentum from his win over Paul Craig will be key. He also cites Cannonier's age (40) and quick turnaround after a near-finish loss to Nassourdine Imavov. He trusts Borralho's improving standup and the Fighting Nerds team.

rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with baralo here here guys I'm going to go with the younger baralo who's not 40 31 in his prime fighting out a fighting nerds"
TKO (punches) R4 1:34 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 64 of 109 58% 102 of 152 1 of 1 100% 0 0 6:18
Jared Cannonier 0 82 of 134 61% 106 of 159 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 21 of 32 65% 38 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:05
Jared Cannonier 0 14 of 30 46% 16 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 17 of 32 53% 27 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
Jared Cannonier 0 28 of 46 60% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nassourdine Imavov 0 18 of 30 60% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Jared Cannonier 0 21 of 32 65% 33 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:46
4 Nassourdine Imavov 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 26 73% 21 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 64 of 109 58% 42 of 81 9 of 11 13 of 17 58 of 100 6 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 82 of 134 61% 61 of 112 16 of 17 5 of 5 64 of 114 17 of 19 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 21 of 32 65% 13 of 23 2 of 2 6 of 7 20 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 14 of 30 46% 7 of 23 4 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 28 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Nassourdine Imavov 17 of 32 53% 12 of 25 3 of 4 2 of 3 15 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 28 of 46 60% 19 of 37 7 of 7 2 of 2 17 of 34 11 of 12 0 of 0
3 Nassourdine Imavov 18 of 30 60% 12 of 23 2 of 2 4 of 5 15 of 25 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 21 of 32 65% 18 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Nassourdine Imavov 8 of 15 53% 5 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 19 of 26 73% 17 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, citing his impressive performance against Marvin Vettori where he showed forward pressure, takedowns, and cardio. He acknowledges that Imavov is good and just dominated Roman Dolidze, but he is impressed with Cannonier's last fight. He thinks the best version of Cannonier wins, and he is crossing his fingers that version shows up.

"I am going to slightly pick Jared caner and the only reason I'm picking him is based off of that last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier to win by split decision. He notes that Cannonier is 40 but looks better than ever, with impressive wins over Marvin Vettori and Sean Strickland. He expects Imavov to have early success but fade, while Cannonier's five-round cardio and takedown defense will allow him to take over. He predicts a close 48-47 split decision.

"I'm going caner I'm going with the 40-year-old caner to get it done maybe losing the first round two rounds but taking over as the fight goes on and and winning a very close 4847 type Split Decision fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Cody picks Cannonier based on his proven cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Cannonier's ability to maintain high volume over five rounds, as seen in the Marvin Vettori fight where he landed 241 significant strikes. Cody acknowledges the concerns about Cannonier's age (40) and the two-year layoff due to an MCL tear, but believes his gas tank and power will be too much for Imavov, who has shown cardio issues in the past. He expects Cannonier to win a competitive decision.

"I got to go with the back class I got to go with the experience I got to go with the proven cardio The Proven durability The Proven experience the competition level all of that stuff Fades towards Jared koner …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Nassourdine Imavov

Daniel leans towards Imavov due to his youth, speed, and improved defense since the Strickland fight. He worries about Imavov's high-energy style causing a late fade, allowing Cannonier to take over in the championship rounds. He notes Cannonier's durability and high output, especially in the Vettori fight, but sees Imavov's early movement and speed as key to banking rounds. Ultimately, he calls it a tough fight that could go either way.

"I'm leaning a little bit towards Nasser just a little bit but you know it's this is one where you can realistically see it going either way"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Jacob is very confident in Jared Cannonier, stating he will not pick against him until someone beats him over five rounds. He notes that Imavov might have early success, but Cannonier's veteran savvy and cardio will take over. He predicts Cannonier wins a decision and makes another title run. He considered Cannonier as lock of the week but the odds were too close.

Jared Cannonier wins by decision
"until I see somebody beat Jared Canon there across five rounds I'm not picking against him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier has power, speed, and explosiveness to crash the pocket and disrupt Imavov's range striking. Imavov may get demoralized when his range control fails, as seen against Strickland. Cannonier can land big shots, change levels for takedowns, and grind out a decision or even a KO. At +105, he's a solid underdog bet.

straight up at +105
"final prediction Jared cir by decision but straight up at plus 105 I think he's that's a that that's a good enough spot to take a trade bet on"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Paul leans towards Cannonier but is hesitant due to the injury and layoff. He notes that Cannonier's price at plus money seems like good value given his resume, but the torn MCL and age are concerns. Paul thinks Cannonier's reach advantage and pressure will be key, and he expects Imavov to struggle with Cannonier's volume and power as the fight goes on. He predicts a competitive fight but sees Cannonier getting the nod.

"I'm still going to go with cener based off of the body of work and that you know pre-injury ability to land insane volume over the course of five rounds against some of the top guys in the division but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

The Guru picks Cannonier because Imavov slows down in fights and lacks finishing instinct, as seen against Roman Dolidze and Buckley. He notes Cannonier gets better as the fight goes on and can walk Imavov down, chew up his legs, and work him against the cage in the later rounds. He says if it were a three-rounder he'd take Imavov, but in a five-rounder Cannonier builds into it and wins a split decision. He also mentions Cannonier looked phenomenal against Vettori and that Imavov hasn't shown he's clearly better than that level of middleweight.

Split decision prediction; says if three rounds would pick Imavov
"if this was a threee rounder I actually do take a mov to win five rounder I think caner will build into this and I think he'll actually beat imov by decision"
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–45, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 0 153 of 301 50% 154 of 302 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Marvin Vettori 0 241 of 411 58% 257 of 428 4 of 6 66% 0 0 3:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 38 of 71 53% 38 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 29 of 66 43% 29 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Cannonier 0 24 of 50 48% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 82 of 125 65% 94 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
3 Jared Cannonier 0 31 of 50 62% 31 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Marvin Vettori 0 49 of 81 60% 52 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:43
4 Jared Cannonier 0 37 of 76 48% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marvin Vettori 0 32 of 57 56% 32 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:34
5 Jared Cannonier 0 23 of 54 42% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marvin Vettori 0 49 of 82 59% 50 of 83 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 153 of 301 50% 117 of 257 15 of 21 21 of 23 148 of 293 5 of 8 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 241 of 411 58% 173 of 339 39 of 43 29 of 29 195 of 354 26 of 31 20 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 38 of 71 53% 31 of 63 3 of 4 4 of 4 37 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 29 of 66 43% 14 of 51 8 of 8 7 of 7 28 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 24 of 50 48% 21 of 44 2 of 4 1 of 2 22 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 82 of 125 65% 62 of 104 15 of 16 5 of 5 58 of 96 12 of 13 12 of 16
3 Jared Cannonier 31 of 50 62% 23 of 42 3 of 3 5 of 5 30 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 49 of 81 60% 36 of 66 8 of 10 5 of 5 41 of 70 7 of 10 1 of 1
4 Jared Cannonier 37 of 76 48% 26 of 63 4 of 5 7 of 8 37 of 75 0 of 1 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 32 of 57 56% 22 of 46 3 of 4 7 of 7 32 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jared Cannonier 23 of 54 42% 16 of 45 3 of 5 4 of 4 22 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marvin Vettori 49 of 82 59% 39 of 72 5 of 5 5 of 5 36 of 66 6 of 7 7 of 9
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Cannonier vs. Marvin Vettori
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vettori (-115), Cannonier (-105)

Round 1
We have reached the final fight of the card, and it is the only one to contain a pair of ranked competitors. Both men have lost to champ Israel Adesanya, so a victory tonight might not be enough to move them to the top of the ladder. In one corner stands Vettori (19-6-1, 9-4-1 UFC), who has never had his chin checked as a pro. In the other is knockout artist Cannonier (16-6, 9-4 UFC), who celebrates a solid 75% finish rate. Whether it lasts five minutes or five rounds, referee Herb Dean is prepped and ready to go. There is an intense glove touch between the two middleweights, and it’s on with the main event. Vettori looks to set up his jab early, and Cannonier walks him down and does the same, except he follows with a calf kick. Vettori sticks out a one-two, and he catches Cannonier with a power left hand that stuns “The Killa Gorilla” unexpectedly. Cannonier defends with his back to the wall and thinks to change levels, and he gathers his thoughts and waves Vettori on for more. Vettori aims a left hand over the top and stings Cannonier again, and Cannonier once more has to retreat to gather his thoughts. Vettori does not give chase or get into a reckless slugfest, instead measuring the former heavyweight with a head kick. Cannonier blocks it in time and steps in with a right hand, and Vettori gets cracked with a right hand that shakes him up. Vettori pays him back with a left hand, and he ducks a swopping punch to sneak a right hand around the guard. Cannonier checks a leg kick and has a left hand bounce off his forehead with little effect. Vettori works the body with a kick, and Cannonier backs him away with a thumping kick to the inside calf. Cannonier keeps his guard up when Vettori throws hands, and he gets off another solid leg kick. Cannonier walks through a jab and rolls with a right hand, and he forces out a jab only to give two right back to his opponent. The Italian flicks out several jabs, and he follows one with a left hand to stagger Cannonier. “The Killa Gorilla” reels and recovers once more, and he kicks at the lead wheel and puts the ball of his foot on Vettori’s sternum twice. Cannonier unloads with a leg kick, only to get knocked back with a pair of punches. Cannonier backs Vettori against the wall and cannot trap him with a barrage, as Vettori instead makes him change his mind with a step-in knee. Cannonier gets in two right hands as Vettori rolls, and he escapes out the side but walks into a right hand that soars at him. Cannonier paws out with three punches that slide off the shoulder, and he eats a one-two shortly thereafter. As Cannonier comes out throwing, the exciting round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Vettori
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vettori

Round 2
Cannonier moves right to the center of the cage after second stanza opens, and they trade rangy punches. Cannonier throws a hard low kick, and he walks into a few punches. As Cannonier bears down on Vettori, Vettori escapes out the side and fires off a piston-like straight left hand. Cannonier knows he will take it on the eye, and he does so he can loop a right hand over the guard. Cannonier slips a few punches as he trades with Vettori, and he ends a combo with a leg kick. Cannonier lines up a ferocious straight right hand, and Vettori wears it well but is not enjoying what he gets. Cannonier rails him with another overhand right, and Vettori staggers back and leans against the fence. Vettori clinches up, and Cannonier pushes him off to reset and approach from another angle. Vettori strides forward in effort to counter, and Cannonier kicks his leg out and puts Vettori on his back. Vettori defends from the subsequent ground-and-pound that Cannonier drops on him, and he moves to his knees while still clearly very hurt as his nose is bleeding. Cannonier racks him up with a few body shots and punches over the top, and Vettori succeeds in slowing Cannonier just enough with a combination. Cannonier digs a left to the body and a right to the head, and Vettori is on rubber legs and taking punches right on the chin. Vettori remains upright, and Cannonier is giving it all he has with punches, knees and even short elbows. Vettori blocks several of the strikes but takes many more, and he is hanging in there but taking a beating. Cannonier backs him off and stands Vettori up with a right hand, and Vettori surges forward with a pair of punches to surprise Cannonier. Cannonier slows himself down, and Vettori rushes after him with a one-two. Vettori misses with a left hook, and he dings Cannonier behind the ear with another and reaches the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Cannonier
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Cannonier

Round 3
A busted up and slightly bloodied Vettori makes it to the third round, and he appears to still be trying to get his wits about him. Vettori leads off with a jab, and he uses several more to decent effect to keep Cannonier from bearing down on him. Vettori sits down on alternating leg kicks, and Cannonier measures a right hand to the midsection. Vettori swings a big left hand, and he springs forward to deliver a right hand off the guard. Cannonier knocks his man back with a power right hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Vettori stops it and pushes him away, and he chains a calf kick into a one-two as he appears more recovered 75 seconds into the round. Vettori jumps into throwing an uppercut to the body and he snaps out a jab only to get met with a body kick. Cannonier knocks the mouthpiece sideways with a big right hand, and Vettori gathers it and reaches Cannonier with a right hand. Cannonier lines up a right hand down the middle, and Cannonier drills him with a right that marks up Vettori’s nose. Cannonier walks down his man and lands without fear, and he makes Vettori bend over so he can smack him with uppercuts. Cannonier drags Vettori to the floor and smashes him in the face with a right hand, and Vettori fights his way to his knee and feet while his face is transforming into a bloody visage. Cannonier is relentless, stalking Vettori down and lining up body shots and some others up top. Vettori backs Cannonier off with an elbow, but Cannonier is able to shake it off and pay him back. Cannonier tries to dump his foe to the floor, and Vettori reverses him and puts Cannonier on his seat. “The Killa Gorilla” desperately leaps back to his feet, and he breaks off from the clinch to get back to walking Vettori down. The two middleweights trade jabs, and Cannonier bops Vettori on the nose and finds his chin with two more hooks. Vettori puts two punches on Cannonier to make him reset, and his jab finds its home right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier

Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, they meet in the middle and Vettori starts off with a leg kick and a few jabs. Vettori has some bounce back in his step, and he flicks out a few punches and ignores the return fire. Cannonier blocks a head kick and drives Vettori back with an overhand right, and Vettori is able to blink it out and string a pair of punches to the face. Vettori sinks a body kick home, and he slips a Cannonier right hook to put two on Cannonier’s face. Cannonier connects with a solid low kick, and Vettori reaches out with his lead right hook. Vettori again goes high with a kick, and it lands off the guard with a loud thud. Vettori tags Cannonier with straight punches, and Cannonier answers with chopping leg kicks. Cannonier leans back and pounds Vettori in the face with a right hand, and he shoots in for a takedown to put Vettori down. Vettori powers his way back up, and Cannonier leads him over to the fence in the tie-up. Cannonier cannot keep him, as Vettori squirts out the side and starts flashing his jab again. Vettori counters a leg kick with a left hand, and he leans back as Cannonier throws a haymaker. Vettori walks into a hook to throw two more, and he gets his head snapped back with a fierce jab. Vettori gets knocked back with jabs, and a one-two gets Vettori’s attention. The Italian kicks the lead leg, and Cannonier answers him right back and follows suit with a right hook behind the ear. Vettori delivers a kick to the ribs, and he hops away as Cannonier rushes at him with big hands. Cannonier throws hard and misses the mark a few times, and they hand-fight in the open until Cannonier closes in to go after a takedown. Vettori shuts it down and moves back to the middle of the cage, and he gets just out of the way of a home run punch from his opponent. Cannonier cracks Vettori with a right hand, but Vettori’s beard is immeasurable. When Cannonier kicks low, Vettori replies with a one-two, and he concludes the round with a head kick and a straight left.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier

Round 5
With five minutes left to decide things once and for all, the middleweights do not waste more than a few seconds before engaging. Vettori aims a kick up high, and when Cannonier guards against it, Vettori kicks low. Cannonier makes him think twice about this with a hard right hand, and he eats one back as Vettori starts chattering to him. They trade power punches, and then power kicks, as nothing is off the table in this skirmish. They both pop out jabs, and Vettori wipes his nose and nods. Cannonier smashes his fist into Vettori’s nose, and Vettori is right there answering him back with a combination. Cannonier rings Vettori’s bell with a monstrous right hand, but somehow Vettori is still with it and pushes off with a knee. Cannonier connects with another big right hook, and he clinches up with Vettori in search of a few short strikes on the inside. Vettori pushes him away and absorbs a flush body kick, only to throw a high kick right back Cannonier’s way. Cannonier corners Vettori momentarily with a short salvo of punches, and Vettori again escapes out the side and resets. Cannonier lunges with straight punches, and Vettori jabs him in the face. “The Italian Stallion” does not land his head kick, and he slides away from one power punch but takes a second one. Cannonier hurts his foe with a hellacious pair of punches, and he muscles Vettori down to the floor and hopes to hammer the nail with ground-and-pound. Vettori clings to him, but Cannonier is able to posture up with a minute to go and rain down elbows. Vettori’s face starts spraying blood, and he still has the wherewithal to sit up and fight back to his feet. All the while, Cannonier is punching Vettori on the bloodied nose. Cannonier swings with bad intentions, and Vettori eludes them and catches Cannonier with a big punch of his own. Cannonier tries to hit one final takedown to conclude the match, but Vettori turns him around. The bloody, brutal firefight that likely set striking total records in the 185-pound division wraps up, and “The Italian Stallion” has miraculously made it to the final horn. The two men may very well find a post-fight bonus in their immediate future after that thrilling back-and-forth slugfest. At the tender age of 39, Cannonier may have put forth his finest performance to date, and he asks for either a title shot or a fight that will get him there. When that happens, we will unquestionably be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (49-45 Cannonier)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (49-45 Cannonier)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (49-45 Cannonier)

The Official Result
Jared Cannonier def. Marvin Vettori via Unanimous Decision (49-45, 49-45, 48-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marvin Vettori

Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, trusting his chin and pressure. He notes that Vettori's takedowns and volume should be effective against Jared Cannonier, who can be gun shy at 39. Vettori lands more significant strikes and has only lost to top competition. Angelo has a half unit moneyline bet on Vettori at minus 145.

"I'm confident in Marvin here I have a money line him at minus 145. I think Marvin vittori gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori to win by decision. He believes Vettori will implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, pushing Cannonier against the cage and taking him down, similar to Israel Adesanya's second fight strategy. He notes Cannonier hasn't faced many wrestlers recently and has been taken down in the past by Derek Brunson and David Branch. Brady emphasizes Vettori's superior cardio, toughness, and durability, and thinks he can win minutes with control and grappling over 25 minutes. He does not expect a finish but sees a clear path to a decision win.

"I think Marvin vittori is going to go out there with that Israel adesanya game plan... I think he's going to implement that game plan here and I think he will have success."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Cody initially gravitates toward Vettori due to his elite generalist skills, cardio, and durability, but he reconsiders after reviewing Cannonier's last fight against Sean Strickland, where Cannonier landed 141 significant strikes and proved he can maintain pace for five rounds despite his muscular build. He notes that Vettori's wrestling may not be good enough to take Cannonier down and hold him there, and that Vettori's last fight against Roman Dolidze was a close call where many thought he lost. Cody ultimately leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes, but acknowledges the fight could go either way and recommends betting live rather than pre-fight.

recommends betting live; mentions over 2 takedowns for Vettori but doesn't commit
"I think I'm gonna go with Cannon here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Marvin Vettori

Connor picks Vettori, citing his consistency, durability, and high output. He argues that Vettori is more reliable minute-to-minute than Cannonier, and that Cannonier's lack of a systematic approach will allow Vettori to outwork him. Connor expects a five-round decision where Vettori lands more strikes and edges out rounds.

"I'll take Vittori."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier, citing comparable volume but a significant power advantage for Cannonier. He notes Cannonier's high output against Strickland (140+ significant strikes) and believes Cannonier lands the harder shots that impress judges. He expects a decision win for Cannonier, though acknowledges a finish is possible. He also mentions Cannonier's leg kicks as a key weapon and Vettori's susceptibility to them. He got Cannonier at +100 and expects the fight to be close but favors Cannonier's power.

bet at +100, decision likely, leg kicks key
"I jumped on that plus 100 when it was available"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier lands more significant strikes over a prolonged period, similar to what Roman Dolidze did but for longer. Vettori's striking is improving but he will struggle to implement his clinch/grappling game because Cannonier is tough to keep in one spot and difficult to hold down. Cannonier keeps the fight upright, uses leg kicks and movement, and lands big shots down the middle. Vettori is very durable so Cannonier wins by decision.

"I'm gonna go with Jared Cannonier here because I feel like he can land the more significant strikes from a prolonged period of time... give me Jared cannonier by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Paul agrees with Cody, noting the line has shortened from +130s to near pick'em, which he considers sharp. He thinks Vettori can take Cannonier down but cannot hold him down and maintain position. He likes the over 2 takedowns prop for Vettori but is not fully committed. He leans Cannonier for landing more damaging strikes over 25 minutes but says anything could happen.

likes over 2 takedowns for Vettori
"I'm with you I I'm leaning towards Jared Cannon here just on Landing the more damaging strikes over the course of 25 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Marvin Vettori, arguing Cannonier is more dynamic with leg kicks, body kicks, and elbows, while Vettori mostly boxes. He compares their common opponents: Cannonier held his own against Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, while Vettori was schooled by both. He also notes Cannonier knocked out Derek Brunson, while Vettori went to a decision. He predicts a 49-46 decision win for Cannonier.

"I'm gonna be going with Ma I'm going Jared can near over Marvin Victoria... Cannon here has better leg kicks than Victoria"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Zane picks Cannonier because he believes Cannonier's power will be the deciding factor. He notes that Cannonier is not consistent but has a 'get out of jail free card' with his power, and that Vettori has been pushed out of his fight by power punchers like Whittaker and Adesanya. Zane expects a close fight where Cannonier's power wins out over Vettori's durability and output.

"I'm going to stick with Cannoneer."
Decision (split) (49–46, 46–49, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 0 141 of 310 45% 141 of 310 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 152 of 400 38% 157 of 410 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 16 of 43 37% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 13 of 48 27% 17 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
2 Jared Cannonier 0 25 of 58 43% 25 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 28 of 73 38% 28 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 0 33 of 69 47% 33 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 35 of 81 43% 35 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jared Cannonier 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 33 of 87 37% 34 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
5 Jared Cannonier 0 40 of 79 50% 40 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 43 of 111 38% 43 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 141 of 310 45% 57 of 187 60 of 88 24 of 35 141 of 310 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 152 of 400 38% 126 of 365 24 of 32 2 of 3 152 of 400 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 16 of 43 37% 3 of 26 7 of 8 6 of 9 16 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 13 of 48 27% 9 of 43 4 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 25 of 58 43% 6 of 28 11 of 18 8 of 12 25 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 28 of 73 38% 23 of 64 5 of 8 0 of 1 28 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 33 of 69 47% 12 of 40 15 of 21 6 of 8 33 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 35 of 81 43% 28 of 73 5 of 6 2 of 2 35 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 27 of 61 44% 14 of 39 11 of 18 2 of 4 27 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 33 of 87 37% 29 of 83 4 of 4 0 of 0 33 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jared Cannonier 40 of 79 50% 22 of 54 16 of 23 2 of 2 40 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 43 of 111 38% 37 of 102 6 of 9 0 of 0 43 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Cannonier vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-115), Cannonier (-105)

Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight for the final UFC match of this year, and it might be one with immediate championship implications depending on the result. Coming off his unsuccessful jaunt for the belt, the lead-fisted Cannonier (15-6, 8-6 UFC) is motivated for one last title run and has to get through Strickland (25-4, 12-4 UFC) to do so. On the other hand, Strickland’s last time out saw him get crushed by the current champ Alex Pereira, one in which he promises would be different should they meet again. Herb Dean will serve as the referee for the final UFC fight of the year, and it begins with a smile from the two fighters and an enthusiastic fist bump. The first strike that lands is a leg kick from Cannonier that bounces off the kneecap. Strickland takes notes and measures his jab, pawing it out a few times, and Cannonier bears down on him with two wide punches. Another Cannonier kick makes Strickland pick up the leg to attempt to check it, but he does not block it. Cannonier kicks high and then goes low to the calf again, and this one lands flush. Cannonier fakes an overhand right, and he lands at the end of a second one. Strickland does not bat an eye, reaching with jabs and slapping a kick to the hip. Cannonier steps through two jabs to plant a right hand on the jaw, and he closes in on Strickland as Strickland jabs repeatedly. A pair of oblique kicks land to the knee for Cannonier, and Strickland starts getting in his groove of jabs and short arcing lefts. “The Killa Gorilla” hits air when he launches an overhand right, and Strickland sees it coming and dodges a second. Cannonier plants the ball of his foot on the ribcage, and he backs Strickland up and cannot quite get around the guard or connect cleanly with a kick. Cannonier kicks to the side, and it gets caught. Strickland tosses Cannonier down to the floor, and Cannonier muscles his way back up without staying grounded. They both get back to their feet, and Strickland holds his man from behind while smacking him with right hands. Strickland does not go after a takedown, and he bails on the clinch when Cannonier turns around. Cannonier slowly walks forward, and he fakes with an overhand right and smashes his shin into the calf. Strickland takes a funny step and retreats, and he measures his jab to fluster the advancing Alaskan. A kick from Cannonier careens off the guard, and he fires one off with the other leg to the calf. One more on the inside makes Strickland preemptively pick up his lead leg, possibly showing that the kicks are bothering him. He skates out of the way of an advancing Cannonier, who cannot catch him with a power blow before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier

Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start Round 2, and Cannonier delivers a leg kick home to begin. The kicks, and faked kicks, are making Strickland flinch. Cannonier winds up with a kick to the body, and when it gets caught, he is thrown to the mat again. Cannonier somersaults away and gets to his feet before Strickland can bear down on him and grab him, and they resume in the center of the cage. Strickland flashes out several jabs, and Cannonier is more reliant on power punches and kicks. Strickland dances out of the way when a right hand comes his direction, and he times the lunges of “The Killa Gorilla” with sharp jabs. The jab pace from Strickland increases as he sticks it on Cannonier’s face again and again, and he keeps it busy to not let Cannonier crowd him. Cannonier reaches the body with a right hand, and it is one-and-done while Strickland keeps jabbing him. Two heavy leg kicks find their target on the calf, and the second, Strickland swings his leg with it to take some of the sting out of it. Cannonier keeps beating on that left leg, forcing Strickland to start thinking about switching stances. Cannonier swings with all his might and comes up short with a haymaker of a right hand, and Strickland sees it and evades it. Cannonier fires another, and the left to set it up is the one that connects while the overhand right whiffs. Strickland sticks his man with a jab and a right hand, and he splits the guard with repeated jabbing. Cannonier cannot find the spot with his right hand, and they start talking to each other as Cannonier tells his foe to sit still. Cannonier kicks low and punches high, and the first lands while the second misses. “Tarzan” remains composed, swinging from side to side and dodging most of the power strikers while peppering the lunging Cannonier. As if we were shot out of a cannon, Cannonier charges, and his punches would blow back the hair if Strickland had any. Strickland keeps his distance and pops Cannonier with a few more lengthy punches until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 3
Cannonier flicks his hand out to receive the half-hearted glove touch, and they pick up right where they left off, with Strickland imposing his jab-heavy game plan. Cannonier lightly oblique kicks the knee, and he gets stunned by a piston-like jab from Strickland. Cannonier connects with a solid leg kick, and he jabs to the midsection. Strickland splits the guard with a few more jabs and a push kick as well, and he starts to follow his jabs with slapping right hands on the side of the head. Cannonier kicks the body, and it hits the block without issue. A Cannonier overhand is blocked, and he kicks on the other side suddenly to slip beneath the guard. Strickland continues to fluster the power puncher with his effective jabs, and Cannonier cannot quite bridge the gap to land with his overhand right. “The Killa Gorilla” goes after the lead leg again, and Strickland’s expression has not changed one iota even while battling it out against a heavy striker. Cannonier finds the end of a right hand, and he chains another left hook into a right hand that knocks Strickland back into the wall. Strickland walks it off and continues to pepper with jabs, and he chains four punches together to drive Cannonier back. Cannonier loads up with two power blows, but he misses the mark cleanly by a matter of inches. Settling for a leg kick, Cannonier maintains a relatively high guard to anticipate the jabs that come. Strickland successfully checks a swinging leg kick, and he pecks at Cannonier with punches in small bunches. Cannonier swings for the bleachers and nearly ends up in the stands after missing with his powerful blows, and they begin to start chatting again. Cannonier targets the body with straighter lefts, and Strickland actively jabs comfortably. Cannonier scores at the end of a left hand, and the close round ends. It would not be surprising if judges possibly had it three rounds in favor of either man now.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
Between rounds, Strickland’s coach slaps him in the face to get him going, as if Strickland weren’t already dealing with enough strikes coming his way. The top middleweights move into the championship rounds actively throwing hands, and Cannonier continues to press forward while Strickland is comfortable fighting off his back foot with jabs peppering his foe. Strickland gets off a trio of punches and a kick to the body, and he is answered with a leg kick that makes him pick it up ever so briefly. Cannonier walks through a jab to throw, but he does not swing it, just eating punches for nothing. Strickland powerfully checks another kick and plants two punches on the chin, and Cannonier is stalled out in front of his foe who is now starting to walk him down. Cannonier takes three clean punches that sting him, and he shakes it out but does not throw back. The jab has neutralized the offense for the last minute or two, and he connects with a one-two to decent effect. Cannonier sinks in an inside leg kick after a lull in offense, and he wings a heavy blow that glances off the shoulder. Strickland’s footwork and head movement keep him safe from harm when his jab does not keep Cannonier off of him. Strickland gets off a short left hand to drive Cannonier away, and he whips a high kick up and has a front kick graze off the jaw. Cannonier loads up with an overhand right and gets knocked back with a right hand for his handiwork. Cannonier takes a couple jabs on the jaw in an effort to march through then and throw hands, but Strickland sees them coming and moves. Strickland wraps his hands around the guard, and Cannonier finally finds his intended target with a few power punches. Strickland ties him up after absorbing the heavy shots, and he backs up against the wall and smiles. Strickland scores in response, and Cannonier comes at him right to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Strickland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 5
The last round of the last fight of the UFC this year is on, and the coaches are extremely fired up and trying to channel their energy to their fighters, not knowing how the judges are scoring this fight. Cannonier lashes out with a low kick, and Strickland pins a few punches on the chin with a little more heat on them. While jabbing and parrying, Strickland throws a little harder at his opponent. Cannonier jabs the body and hand-fights to find a way in, and he scores a left hand. Strickland staggers him with a few right hands over the top, and Cannonier talks to him and tells him to stand in front of him and trade. Cannonier swings hammers, and Strickland sticks and moves with a double jab and a right hand down the pipe. Cannonier rings his man’s bell with a right hand on the temple, and he snaps the head back with another as Strickland has to blink it out. “Tarzan” recovers and pushes out jabs and a short combo, and he absorbs a low kick on the way back. Cannonier unloads with two big punches that knock the head around, ignoring the jab so that he can connect cleanly. This second land from Cannonier wakes Strickland up, who strings together a lengthy combination as his nose begins to bleed. Strickland gets back into his jab-heavy approach, swatting away the punches that zoom past him. Cannonier sets up a jab and chain a right hand into it, and Strickland is getting marked up as Cannonier is ignoring jabs to strike. Cannonier swings with a back fist that goes wide, and he loads up on a left that breezes past the chin. The final minute begins with a brief brawl, and Cannonier strikes and gets knocked back by the responsive salvo. Strickland walks into a winging left hand and still stays composed sticking out jabs, and he catches an overswinging Cannonier with a few strikes. They both put big power into their strikes, and they throw fire in the form of punches, kicks and anything else they can muster until the bitter end. Neither man goes down, and they have reached the final bell. It truly could go either way. It was a fight. With this event in the books, we have reached the end of the year, with 42 UFC fight cards carrying on across 2022. Our next play-by-play will run on Jan. 14 in what could be a fun Fight Night event with a fantastic co-main event. Thank you for joining us this year on all of the action that the UFC has had to put on. We will be here for the next year, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (48-47 Strickland)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Strickland (48-47 Strickland)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Cannonier (48-47 Strickland)

The Official Result
Jared Cannonier def. Sean Strickland via Split Decision (49-46, 46-49, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Jared Cannonier, believing he is the more dangerous, stronger, and faster fighter. He thinks Cannonier has a good enough chin to handle Strickland's arm punches but needs to pick up the volume. He notes that if Cannonier lets his hands go, it could be one-sided, but if not, he could get jabbed to death. He considers Strickland overrated.

"I think Jared can win this fight he has a good enough chin to not have issues with the arm punches but he's gonna need to pick up the volume"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Cannonier, liking his power and expecting Strickland to stand and trade. He notes Strickland said he has no game plan and will just walk forward and brawl. He thinks Cannonier will have 25 minutes to land a big shot, especially since Strickland was recently knocked down. He predicts Cannonier wins by knockout, possibly in any round.

Cannonier wins by KO
"I'll take Cannon here to win I'll take Hannah near to win by really could be in any round I'll take anyone by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sean Strickland

Cody picks Strickland, believing he can execute a 25-minute game plan with high volume. He argues Strickland learned from the Pereira loss and can be smarter against Cannonier. He doesn't see Cannonier as an elite finisher like Pereira, so Strickland's durability and volume should earn a decision.

Strickland by decision plus 200
"I decided to go the other way and take Sean Strickland... I'm picking Sean Strickland but I don't necessarily think he's going to finish your kid in here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sean Strickland

Strickland's style is better suited for Cannonier than for a taller fighter like Alex Pereira. Cannonier's knockout power is overrated due to Strickland's recent KO loss, but Strickland's pressure and volume should wear on Cannonier as the fight goes on. Expect close first two rounds, then Strickland pulls away. Strickland's durability and pace are key.

2.28 units at -114
"I think that this is a solid fight for him uh you know I think Cannon your strike or knockout power um or at least knockout threat in this matchup is being a tad bit over exaggerated due to the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Paul picks Cannonier because he believes Strickland needs to fight a perfect fight to win, while Cannonier can land a bomb. He notes Cannonier has five-round experience and cardio, and lands more damaging shots. He took Cannonier at plus money, acknowledging it's not a lock but his side.

Cannonier plus 100
"I actually took uh Jared Cannon near plus 100 is one of the few remaining plus plus money Wagers on the board right now"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier over Sean Strickland, predicting a second-round KO. He believes Strickland is too basic and readable on the feet, and Cannonier will find his chin with hooks over the jab. He notes Cannonier's reach advantage and leg kicks, and compares Strickland's vulnerability to Alex Pereira's striking. He thinks Cannonier is the next best contender after Whittaker and Adesanya, and that Strickland is not elite at middleweight.

round 2 KO
"I'm definitely going to be going with Jared Cannon here who I believe also has a reach Advantage"
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 116 of 230 50% 163 of 277 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 90 of 157 57% 141 of 217 0 of 4 0% 0 0 4:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 22 of 48 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 18 of 28 64% 18 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Israel Adesanya 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 31 61% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 35 48% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 17 of 36 47% 38 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:29
4 Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 45 53% 40 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 16 of 36 44% 31 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
5 Israel Adesanya 0 25 of 54 46% 38 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Cannonier 0 20 of 26 76% 35 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 116 of 230 50% 60 of 165 26 of 31 30 of 34 114 of 226 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 90 of 157 57% 36 of 89 32 of 40 22 of 28 78 of 143 12 of 14 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 22 of 48 45% 7 of 29 6 of 8 9 of 11 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 18 of 28 64% 1 of 6 6 of 8 11 of 14 18 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Israel Adesanya 28 of 48 58% 12 of 32 9 of 9 7 of 7 28 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 19 of 31 61% 6 of 15 9 of 11 4 of 5 19 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Israel Adesanya 17 of 35 48% 9 of 26 4 of 4 4 of 5 17 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 17 of 36 47% 7 of 22 6 of 8 4 of 6 9 of 27 8 of 9 0 of 0
4 Israel Adesanya 24 of 45 53% 15 of 34 5 of 7 4 of 4 24 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 16 of 36 44% 8 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Israel Adesanya 25 of 54 46% 17 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 7 23 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Cannonier 20 of 26 76% 14 of 19 5 of 6 1 of 1 18 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Israel Adesanya

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya, citing his superior speed, technique, and counter-striking. He notes that Cannonier offers no takedown threat, making it a pure kickboxing match where Izzy is the better kickboxer. He acknowledges Cannonier's power but believes Izzy's defense and timing will prevail.

"I like izzy to win this fight but it will be very interesting to see what happened if jared lands clean"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady is confident in Israel Adesanya, citing his size, speed, and striking advantage. He believes Cannonier has no clear path to victory, as wrestling is unlikely and striking on the outside favors Adesanya. He predicts a decision win, possibly a late finish if Cannonier rushes.

Adesanya by decision
"adasanya i'll say adasanya by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Israel Adesanya

Cody believes Adesanya is the cleaner striker and will manage range effectively. He notes Cannonier tends to wait on his punches and doesn't throw high volume, which will allow Adesanya to dictate the pace. He sees a decision victory or late stoppage as likely.

Adesanya over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I think he's going to be cleaner more polished stand up and uh you know on route to likely a decision Victory or maybe like a late stoppage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Israel Adesanya

Daniel Levi picks Israel Adesanya to win, citing his superior range, stance switching, and fight IQ. He notes that Adesanya's fainting game and variety of strikes make him difficult to deal with, and that Cannonier's only path is to capitalize on Adesanya's occasional defensive lapses. Levi acknowledges Cannonier's power and durability but believes Adesanya's technical edge will prevail. He mentions the line is about right and sees no value in betting at -500.

Line is about right; no value at -500; would have been interested at -300 to -400 for a parlay.
"on paper i mean you gotta favor izzy... the pick is easy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Israel Adesanya

Adesanya is faster and more technical. Cannonier's path to victory is a KO, but Adesanya's defense and movement make that unlikely. Cannonier is not a proactive grappler and doesn't have exceptional cardio. Adesanya should win a decision, possibly a late finish.

Adesanya wins in round 4/5 or decision +115
"i think arizona wins no real resistance here in my opinion"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Israel Adesanya

Paul thinks the line is too wide but still expects Adesanya to win. He highlights Adesanya's leg kicks and movement to stay out of danger, and notes Cannonier lacks the wrestling to exploit Adesanya. He sees a decision win but won't bet at -500.

Adesanya over 76.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I don't think Jared Cannonier is a complete sitting duck in this spot... but I do think he wins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Israel Adesanya

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya to win by TKO in the fourth round. He believes Adesanya's leg kicks and range will be key, and that Cannonier, at 38, will take risks when behind on the scorecards, leading to a counter shot finish. He notes Cannonier's forearm injury from blocking kicks and expects Adesanya to capitalize.

fourth round TKO
"i'm gonna be going with israel to sanyo winning this one by fourth round tko"
Gregory Rodrigues - Fight History
KO R1 1:47 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 1 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 1 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 5 40% 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 5 40% 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo notes that both fighters are similar with heavy hands and poor cardio, but Gregory is larger and has better fight IQ. He expects Gregory to wrestle early to avoid another knockout, as Bruno knocked him out in their first fight when Gregory was ill-prepared. He believes Gregory will slow the pace and win on the scorecards.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Gregory is going to keep this pace slow, stay on the outside... I actually think this could be a very interesting fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira in a rematch. He notes Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first fight, but Rodrigues has elite jiu-jitsu that he underutilizes. Brady believes if Rodrigues fights smart, mixes in takedowns, and uses his grappling, he can submit Ferreira, who gassed badly against Abus Magomedov. He predicts a second-round submission, warning that if Rodrigues stands and bangs, he could get knocked out again.

Rodrigues by second round submission
"Give me Gregory Rodriguez to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Brunno Ferreira

Cody also picks Ferreira, highlighting Rodrigues' defensive flaws and tendency to gas. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that Rodrigues has been knocked out before. He expects Ferreira to land a big shot and finish.

"I got a slight dog play here on Bruno Ferrer."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Connor picks Rodrigues despite the first loss, noting that Rodrigues was styling on Ferreira before getting caught. He believes Rodrigues's improved grappling and willingness to test Ferreira's submission defense will be key. However, he acknowledges that Ferreira's one-punch power and Rodrigues's tendency to fade late make this a risky pick. Connor sees it as a well-matched rematch where either outcome is possible.

Odds: Ferreira opened at +130, now +145; Rodrigues opened at -150, now -170.
"I am going to pick Gregory Rodriguez, even despite the first loss. He should absolutely style on Bruno Fajeta again, but it's middleweight. So he might just get clocked again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira as a plus-170 underdog, believing the odds should be closer. He notes that Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has power that can end the fight early. Vreeland acknowledges both fighters have cardio issues and one-shot power, but he likes the value on Ferreira.

"Give me Bruno Ferrer to come out here and uh make history once again and get this upset."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Brunno Ferreira

James picks Brunno Ferreira as the value side, noting that Ferreira already knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has the power to do it again. He highlights Rodrigues' poor chin and tendency to get hit, while Ferreira's leaping left hook is a dangerous weapon. James admits he is not confident but cannot trust Rodrigues at minus-200 odds due to his chin issues. He expects Ferreira to win by KO, likely early.

"I'm going to ultimately pick Bruno Ferrer just because I just feel like, you know, underdog price, pretty big underdog price. He's already knocked him out once."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues has a height and reach advantage and will play it safe early before finding a knockout as Ferreira slows. He learned from the first fight and should be more assertive. The fight finishes inside the distance. Waiting for a better line is advised.

Rodrigues by knockout; fight inside distance
"I think this fight finishes inside the distance. I think wins, but I would think twice in terms of taking him at Chalk."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Brunno Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira as a dog, citing Rodrigues' durability issues and poor head movement. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that he already knocked out Rodrigues. He sees value at plus money and expects a knockout.

"It's dog or pass here for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Brunno Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his previous KO win over Rodrigues. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and that Rodrigues is chinny. He predicts a KO win, possibly in a scrappy fight.

KO victory
"Bruno Fea KO victory."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, echoing Connor's reasoning. He notes that Rodrigues has become more willing to grapple and can use ground-and-pound to finish. Zane points out that Ferreira's game is limited to wild overhands and sacrificial submissions, and Rodrigues should be able to avoid the big shot if he fights smart. However, he admits that Ferreira's power makes it a dangerous fight.

Odds: Ferreira +145, Rodrigues -170.
"I am going to pick Gregory Rodriguez, even despite the first loss."
WIN vs Roman Kopylov
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 52 of 105 49% 54 of 109 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:35
Gregory Rodrigues 0 90 of 173 52% 91 of 174 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
Gregory Rodrigues 0 20 of 35 57% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 23 of 36 63% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
Gregory Rodrigues 0 37 of 70 52% 38 of 71 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:24
3 Roman Kopylov 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 33 of 68 48% 33 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 52 of 105 49% 35 of 80 9 of 16 8 of 9 51 of 103 1 of 1 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 90 of 173 52% 59 of 133 28 of 37 3 of 3 84 of 164 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 9 of 16 56% 2 of 5 2 of 6 5 of 5 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Gregory Rodrigues 20 of 35 57% 12 of 25 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 23 of 36 63% 20 of 32 3 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 37 of 70 52% 26 of 55 10 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 62 5 of 8 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 20 of 53 37% 13 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 33 of 68 48% 21 of 53 11 of 14 1 of 1 33 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Roman Kopylov vs. Gregory Rodrigues
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodrigues (-166), Kopylov (+140)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Rodrigues probes with a right to the body. The Brazilian counters a kick with a crisp straight right. Another straight right splits the guard of Kopylov. Rodrigues follows a right hand with a hard body kick. Rodrigues continues to fire off his right hand and now he tries a takedown, which Kopylov defends. Kopylov with a straight left to the body, his first meaningful offense of the fight. Rodrigues with a hard body kick and then a right to the body as well. Every punch from Rodrigues is taking effect so far. Kopylov attacks the lead leg and Rodrigues answers with an inside leg kick. Rodrigues just misses a head kick. The Brazilian steps in with a knee to the body and he shoots for a takedown. Kopylov reverses it with a hip toss. He stands over Rodrigues as time ticks down, but he doesn’t land anything of note before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 2
Rodrigues opens with a 1-2. Kopylov lands a left, but Rodrigues answers. They go to the ground and Kopylov scrambles out of a leg lock. Rodrigues shoots again against the fence, but Kopylov shoves him away. Rodrigues backs up Kopylov with a knee to the body. Kopylov sticks a jab. Rodrigues with a jab of his own. Rodrigues stalks his opponent, drawing mbig movements with feints. Rodrigues with a solid jab. Kopylov catches a kick and fires off a series of right hands before releasing the limb. Rodrigues moves in behind a right hand. Rodrigues marches forward, throwing straight punches, sometimes mixing in body shots. Kopylov with a left to the body. Rodrigues follows a knee with a series of hard right hands. “Robocop” keeps the pressure on as Kopylov remains on his bike. Rodrigues lands a jab followed by a right to the body. Kopylov remains on the defensive. Rodrigues lands a body kick. Kopylov catches it and shoves his foe down. A right by Rodrigues makes Kopylov stumble. Rodrigues stalks the Russian, landing heavy blows along the way. Kopylov unleashes a quick head kick, but it can’t quite find the mark. They clinch late in the round. Rodrigues lands a knee and misses a spinning attack as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues

Round 3
Rodrigues pumps his jab. Kopylov probes with a leg kick. Another jab lands for the Brazilian. Kopylov flicks out a jab but eats a right hand. Kopylov leaps in with a left that briefly buckles Rodrigues. Rodrigues recovers quickly, but that was Kopylov’s best attack so far. Rodrigues goes back to the well with a powerful 1-2. “Robocop” follows up with a right to the body, then a high kick that slams off Kopylov’s arm. Kopylov presses forward and lands a left to the body. Kopylov is on the attack, and he leaps in with another left. Rodrigues fires a right to the body. They trade on the inside and both men land. Rodrigues chops away with low kicks. Rodrigues stays busy with 1-2s, but Kopylov with another rapid left hand that finds the mark. Rodrigues continues to attack the body with his right hand while also throwing 1-2s upstairs. Kopylov is still hunting for that left hand. Kopylov fires another head kick, but Rodrigues blocks it. A quick right hand finds the mark for the Russian. Kopylov can’t get through with a head kick but ends the contest with a spinning backfist.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)

The Official Result
Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues will use takedowns to control the fight, similar to his win over Christian Leroy Duncan. He notes Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer but vulnerable to grappling. Angelo's only concern is Rodrigues' tendency to bleed easily.

"I think Gregory Rodriguez makes this a very tricky fight for Roman Copilov... I do think Gregory wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues, highlighting his elite jiu-jitsu and ground game, which he believes will be too much for Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling. He notes Kopylov was submitted by a kickboxer and dominated on the ground by Albert Duraev. However, Brady worries about Rodrigues's tendency to stand and trade, given his questionable chin (four knockout losses). He predicts a first-round submission if Rodrigues uses his grappling, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss if he brawls.

first round submission
"I'm going to go Rodriguez first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues, citing his power, wrestling, and aggression. He notes that Kopylov has struggled against grapplers and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes that Rodrigues will pressure Kopylov, take him down, and either finish or win a decision. He also mentions that Rodrigues has looked good in recent fights and is a reliable favorite.

"I like Robocop Rodrigues."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov but calls it a coin flip. He notes that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can target all levels and that Rodrigues gives openings for low kicks and head kicks. However, he acknowledges that Rodrigues has excellent wrestling and top game, and that Kopylov's only way to stop the pressure is to kill Rodrigues on the counter.

Odds: Kopylov opened -110, currently +165. Connor says 'it's a coin flip for me'.
"I think just to keep it interesting, I'll take Kapilov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel favors Rodrigues despite disliking his unsportsmanlike follow-up punch in his last fight. He believes Rodrigues has more ways to win, with power in his hands and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kopylov has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He also questions Kopylov's chin and ability to handle pressure.

"I do favor Hoboc in this one, man. I think he's got more ways to win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James picks Roman Kopylov to win by knockout, going against the grain. He believes Kopylov's fast boxing and head kicks can exploit Rodrigues' poor chin and cardio. He notes Rodrigues' grappling advantage but thinks Kopylov's takedown defense will hold up early, allowing him to land a knockout. He acknowledges this is a risky pick but sees value in the underdog.

by KO
"Roman Copilov wins this fight. Brutal knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodriguez is surprisingly not a bigger favorite. He walks Kopylov down like Paulo Costa did, throws big shots, gets his respect, and closes the show with a knockout.

knockout
"I think Hodriguez will do exactly what Paulo Costa did. Walk Copilov down, throw big shots, get his respect, and I think this time actually Rodriguez can close the show and win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with power and that Kopylov has gassed when taken down. He points out that Kopylov's last win was against a faded Paulo Costa and that he has been submitted by grapplers. Paul thinks Rodrigues will control the fight and win by decision or TKO.

"if G Rod is controlling you and he's forcing the issue, well, you know what's even more tiring than trying to hold somebody down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by TKO in round one or two. He highlights Rodrigues' pressure, power, and body work, which should overwhelm Kopylov, who has shown vulnerability to pressure. Kopylov's long torso makes him susceptible to body shots, and Rodrigues' recent KO win over Jack Hermansson shows his form. The Guru expects an early finish.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez backing up Roman Copilov and finishing him in round one or two."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, citing his relentless pressure and power. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can stop Rodrigues with counters, but believes Rodrigues will likely get the driver's seat and crush Kopylov. Zane notes that Kopylov falls apart when pressured hard enough.

Odds: Rodrigues opened -110, currently -190. Kopylov opened -110, jumped to +135, currently +165.
"I got to take Rodriguez in that fight, you know?"
KO R1 4:21 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 1 18 of 63 28% 18 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 30 of 55 54% 24 of 49 2 of 2 4 of 4 30 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 63 28% 11 of 54 6 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo leans Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Rodrigues's power and early success will carry him in a three-round fight, despite his cardio issues. He compares it to Jack Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer, where Hermansson survived early and took over, but notes that Rodrigues's loss to Jared Cannonier was in the fourth round and Cannonier hits harder. He is cautious because Rodrigues is a -180 favorite with cardio concerns, and he suggests the over 1.5 rounds might be a good bet.

Angelo mentions he is interested in the over 1.5 rounds line if available, and notes that -180 for a guy who just got finished due to cardio is risky.
"Gregory Rodrigues is going to be the pick. I'm a little iffy on bets. Well, maybe we get a one-and-a-half round line."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady likes Rodrigues stylistically, noting his power advantage over Hermansson. He thinks Hermansson's best path is wrestling, but Rodrigues has good takedown defense and is a BJJ black belt. Brady expects the fight to stay standing, where Rodrigues will land harder shots. He references Marvin Vettori knocking down Hermansson as evidence of his chin vulnerability, and picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout.

Rodrigues wins by second round knockout
"I'm going to take Rodriguez to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Rodrigues. He notes that Hermansson's wins come against limited fighters, while Rodrigues is a well-rounded athlete who can offer problems everywhere. Hermansson's long layoff and injuries are concerns, and Rodrigues' aggression and durability should carry him.

Odds: Hermansson +196, Rodrigues -205. Connor mentions the odds widening.
"I just got to go. Totally. Odds on the fight. Hermansson is the underdog opened at plus one 52 is currently a plus one 96. Rodriguez opened at minus one 85 currently minus two oh five. So odds only getting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The host notes Hermansson's long layoff and believes Rodrigues will dictate the pace with power punching and ground control, winning on the scorecards.

win on scorecards
"I think the Rodriguez will be able to dictate the pace with his power punching, but also an ability to take this fight to the ground and grind out Herman Manson leading to Rodriguez winning this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The host picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his activity and more intricate striking compared to Hermansson's last opponent. He believes Rodrigues' grappling is good enough to neutralize Hermansson's, and that Hermansson's long layoff is a concern. He predicts a TKO win for Rodrigues in the first or second round.

TKO
"I'm going to go with him over Jack Manson here just because of recency. Like he's on the grind, he's on the hustle, he's on the come up."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he sees Hermansson as a fighter who struggles against well-rounded athletes. Rodrigues is competent everywhere and can land bigger shots, while Hermansson needs time to establish his jab and lacks finishing power. Over three rounds, Rodrigues should be able to put it on Hermansson and win.

Odds: Hermansson +196, Rodrigues -205. Zane notes the odds are widening in Rodrigues' favor.
"I just got to go. Totally. Odds on the fight. Hermansson is the underdog opened at plus one 52 is currently a plus one 96. Rodriguez opened at minus one 85 currently minus two oh five. So odds only getting …"
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
KO R4 0:21 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 2 98 of 201 48% 109 of 215 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
Gregory Rodrigues 2 93 of 221 42% 95 of 225 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 22 of 38 57% 31 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Gregory Rodrigues 2 25 of 66 37% 26 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Jared Cannonier 0 33 of 72 45% 35 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Gregory Rodrigues 0 25 of 68 36% 26 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 1 34 of 78 43% 34 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Gregory Rodrigues 0 43 of 87 49% 43 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Jared Cannonier 1 9 of 13 69% 9 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gregory Rodrigues 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 98 of 201 48% 59 of 157 20 of 23 19 of 21 69 of 161 20 of 25 9 of 15
Gregory Rodrigues 93 of 221 42% 65 of 188 21 of 25 7 of 8 85 of 208 8 of 12 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 22 of 38 57% 10 of 25 5 of 5 7 of 8 15 of 30 7 of 8 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 25 of 66 37% 16 of 53 8 of 11 1 of 2 19 of 56 6 of 9 0 of 1
2 Jared Cannonier 33 of 72 45% 15 of 50 11 of 14 7 of 8 28 of 65 5 of 7 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 25 of 68 36% 16 of 59 5 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 34 of 78 43% 27 of 71 2 of 2 5 of 5 22 of 59 3 of 4 9 of 15
Gregory Rodrigues 43 of 87 49% 33 of 76 8 of 9 2 of 2 41 of 85 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 9 of 13 69% 7 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 5 of 6 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40) as a key factor. He notes that Cannonier's chin and speed are declining, and while Cannonier may have early success, Rodrigues has enough power and grappling to turn the fight. Angelo also mentions he might bet the under on 4.5 rounds if the prop is available.

under 4.5 rounds (if available)
"Gregory is the pick and if we get a four and a half round line I I might Hammer that under"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout, noting Cannonier's decline in durability and performance. Cannonier was outclassed by Caio Borralho and wobbled by Vettori. Rodrigues is younger and has power, though his own chin is questionable. He expects Rodrigues to land a big shot and finish Cannonier.

knockout in round 2
"give me Ro Rodriguez and I think he stops cider in this fight I give give me Rodriguez by second round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Connor picks Jared Cannonier, though hesitantly. He acknowledges Cannonier has lost a step and is on a slide, but believes this is a level of fight Cannonier can still win. He points to Cannonier's hand speed, counter-punching, and ability to time counters against Rodrigues' defensive liabilities. Connor also notes that Cannonier has been competitive with top fighters like Imavov and Bahaio, and that Rodrigues' tendency to get caught by surprise makes him susceptible to Cannonier's power. However, he admits the version of Cannonier that gets big finishes might be gone, and he can also envision Cannonier getting crushed.

Connor mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"I still feel inclined to pick Canoneer though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues despite acknowledging his suspect chin, because Jared Cannonier is 40 years old and has taken severe damage in recent fights, especially the brutal KO loss to Caio Borralho just five and a half months ago. He believes Cannonier's age and accumulated punishment make him vulnerable to Rodrigues' power and pressure. However, he notes that Rodrigues gets hit often and has been knocked out by lesser fighters, so he is not fully confident. He also mentions that Cannonier is live for a KO and may play a small prop on Cannonier by KO. He strongly recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to distance' at -250, seeing value there.

Fight doesn't go to distance at -250; under 2.5 rounds at -125; small play on Jared Cannonier by KO
"I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez and the reason I'm doing that is because of Jared's age because of the punishment he has took"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Cannonier is on a downward slope at nearly 41 years old. Rodrigues will use pace, pressure, and power to take advantage of Cannonier's diminishing durability and speed. Cannonier has been hurt in recent fights, and Rodrigues finishes him in the second or third round.

Rodrigues inside the distance, round 2 or 3
"Look for Rodriguez to utilize a solid pace and pressure and really leaning on that power... I think Rodriguez can put a stamp on this matchup by getting a finish in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40), recent damage, and lack of recent knockouts. He highlights Rodrigues' size, grappling advantage, power, and youth. He believes Rodrigues has multiple paths to victory: knockout, takedown and ground control, or submission, while Cannonier has fewer options.

"I'm going to trust in Gregory Rodriguez getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Cannonier has lost a step and no longer has the finishing ability to capitalize on Rodrigues' defensive lapses. He notes that Cannonier's tactical, non-strategic style means he gives opponents infinite chances, and with age and declining durability, those chances are now breaking against him. Zane also highlights Rodrigues' improved wrestling and strategic approach, as seen in the Brad Tavares fight, as key factors. He acknowledges Cannonier could still catch Rodrigues, but trusts the math less for Cannonier now.

Zane mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"But now I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez because I don't think that Cannon here is ever going to take this fight over from Rodriguez."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 29 of 48 60% 53 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:45
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 45 of 79 56% 78 of 120 4 of 12 33% 0 0 8:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 9 of 19 47% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 12 of 21 57% 21 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
2 Gregory Rodrigues 0 13 of 17 76% 24 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 26 of 43 60% 40 of 58 1 of 7 14% 0 0 1:39
3 Gregory Rodrigues 0 7 of 12 58% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Christian Leroy Duncan 0 7 of 15 46% 17 of 28 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 29 of 48 60% 13 of 28 7 of 10 9 of 10 23 of 40 6 of 8 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 45 of 79 56% 37 of 69 8 of 10 0 of 0 28 of 55 12 of 18 5 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 9 of 19 47% 3 of 10 2 of 4 4 of 5 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 12 of 21 57% 9 of 16 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Gregory Rodrigues 13 of 17 76% 8 of 11 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 10 6 of 7 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 26 of 43 60% 21 of 38 5 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 27 11 of 16 0 of 0
3 Gregory Rodrigues 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Christian Leroy Duncan 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Christian Leroy Duncan

Angelo picks Christian Leroy Duncan but with very low confidence, calling it a 51% lean. He cites Duncan's sharp striking and hometown advantage, but acknowledges that Gregory Rodrigues is incredibly durable and dangerous. Angelo warns that Duncan can get too comfortable and showboat, potentially getting caught. He describes this as a very tough fight to pick.

"I'm gonna pick clld because of the sharp striking and the hometown Advantage but he could be a landmine"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Christian Leroy Duncan

Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his superior striking, footwork, and precision. He notes that Gregory Rodrigues has a suspect chin and has been knocked out multiple times when standing. Cody believes Duncan can knock him out if Rodrigues chooses to brawl, but acknowledges that Rodrigues could win by grappling. However, he thinks Rodrigues is likely to engage in a striking battle, which favors Duncan.

Christian Leroy Duncan by TKO
"I'm going to go Duncan but you know at the end of the day when you look at like which other these underdogs do you not mind you didn't piay KCK them but it's like I I see the path …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel acknowledges Christian Leroy Duncan's athleticism and flashy style but thinks Gregory Rodrigues has more paths to victory: decision, submission, or knockout. He notes Rodrigues' power, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu, while Duncan may be 'kill or bust.' He is hesitant due to Rodrigues' defensive flaws and stiff movement.

"I'm going to pick him in the spot but I'm very you know I acknowledge the fact that Leroy Duncan is special"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel picks Gregory Rodrigues (RoboCop), impressed by his knockout of Brad Tavares and his takedown ability. He questions Duncan's competition (exhausted Claudio Ribeiro, Dennis Tiuliulin) and notes that Duncan struggled against Armen Petrosyan. He trusts Rodrigues' power and wrestling, and notes Rodrigues has four knockouts in his last five fights.

"I'm going hobocop here for sure"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident pick date unknown
Christian Leroy Duncan

Jeff picks Christian Leroy Duncan, believing he will knock out Rodrigues. He notes that Rodrigues gets hurt in every fight and Duncan has shown power. He cites Duncan's four-inch reach advantage and thinks Duncan's striking will be the difference.

Christian Leroy Duncan via knockout +150
"I'm taking CD I think he's going to knock him out as well hobocop gets caught a lot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Christian Leroy Duncan

Paul also picks Duncan, noting that the fight ending inside the distance is likely. He points out that Rodrigues' chin has been checked many times and that Duncan has never been finished. Paul believes Duncan will knock out Rodrigues, but he also considers the possibility of Rodrigues using grappling, which could expose Duncan's wrestling. He plans to bet on the fight ending inside the distance.

Fight ends inside the distance
"I think the most likely bet that I may add to some like long parlays and stuff his fight ends inside the distance here that's like minus two that's minus 220."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his grappling edge and KO power. He notes that Rodrigues has better takedowns and can out-grapple Christian Leroy Duncan, who may struggle with grappling defense. The Guru also believes Rodrigues has more punching power and that Duncan hasn't faced someone with that level of power. He references Duncan's fight against Arman Petrosyan, where he was taken down, and suggests Rodrigues can replicate that success.

"I'm going to go with Gregory Rodriguez man I'm gonna pick Gregory Rodriguez I think he's got if there's anyone going to be out grappling the other here it's going to be Rodriguez getting takedowns on Christian Leroy Duncan"
WIN vs Brad Tavares
TKO (punches) R3 0:55 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 37 of 84 44% 42 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 71 of 123 57% 79 of 135 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 14 of 30 46% 19 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 25 of 49 51% 29 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:56
2 Gregory Rodrigues 0 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 22 of 40 55% 26 of 46 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:22
3 Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brad Tavares 0 24 of 34 70% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 37 of 84 44% 28 of 70 4 of 9 5 of 5 36 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 71 of 123 57% 53 of 102 8 of 9 10 of 12 64 of 114 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 14 of 30 46% 10 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 14 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 25 of 49 51% 19 of 41 4 of 5 2 of 3 20 of 43 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Gregory Rodrigues 18 of 39 46% 14 of 32 2 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 22 of 40 55% 13 of 30 3 of 3 6 of 7 20 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 15 33% 4 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brad Tavares 24 of 34 70% 21 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 24 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo describes Gregory Rodrigues as a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt and good takedown defense, and notes he is a threat everywhere. Brad Tavares is tough and experienced but not dangerous, with only two finishes in 15 UFC wins. Angelo believes Rodrigues' forward pressure and power will win the fight, likely by decision due to Tavares' durability.

"Gregory Rodriguez is going to win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Rodrigues has power and durability issues, but Tavares has no finishing ability and is getting older. He expects Rodrigues to march forward and land a big shot, knocking out Tavares. He mentions that Tavares couldn't finish 41-year-old Matt Wyman, which was a terrible look.

second round knockout
"give me Rodriguez here I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockdown"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody picks Rodrigues, noting Tavares lacks power and has not knocked anyone out in years. He thinks Rodrigues' size and pressure will be too much, and that Tavares' low volume and lack of finishing ability play into Rodrigues' hands. Cody expects a decision win for Rodrigues, possibly 29-28 or 30-27.

"Rodriguez is the pick for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Brad Tavares

Tavares has a striking advantage and solid takedown defense. He should be able to control the fight with leg kicks and counter striking. Rodrigues may strike himself exhausted trying to finish. Tavares' durability is a non-issue, and his losses are to top-tier competition. At +195, this is a no-brainer spot for the veteran to win by decision.

"I'm going to lean with Tavaris here the veteran experience the Striking Advantage hopefully his durability holds up which I believe again is a nonissue and at plus 195 no brainer spot here give me the veteran brat tarz to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul agrees, calling Tavares a gatekeeper who doesn't pose many threats. He notes Tavares' lack of knockout power and that Rodrigues is huge for the weight class. Paul thinks Rodrigues' grappling and pressure will be decisive, and that Tavares' takedown defense may not hold up. He expects a clear decision for Rodrigues.

"I'm GNA have to agree as well Brad tarz is very serviceable like you said but uh he's he's a gatekeeper"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues with high confidence, criticizing Brad Tavares for not finishing a compromised Chris Weidman. He believes Tavares is not high-level and lacks punch power. He expects Rodrigues to find a TKO win on the feet, as he does not think Tavares can put him away.

TKO win
"I'm going to go Gregory Rodriguez no doubt in my mind about this either... I'm gonna side with Gregory Rodriguez finding some kind of TKO win over Brad Tavarez on the feet."
KO (elbows) R1 1:43 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Denis Tiuliulin 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Denis Tiuliulin 0 2 of 7 28% 3 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4
Denis Tiuliulin 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 5 of 6 83% 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4
Denis Tiuliulin 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues but with low confidence, noting that the fight should be closer to a pick'em than the current odds. He believes Rodrigues has a significant ground advantage and can submit Tiuliulin if he shoots takedowns. However, he worries that Rodrigues might choose to slug it out, which could lead to another knockout loss. He notes Tiuliulin's power fades over three rounds and he has nothing on the ground.

"Gregory Rodriguez is going to be the pick very low confidence pick because I want him to shoot takedowns... but if Gregory wants to come in there and Slug It Out he can end up with a really bad night …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady confidently picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by first-round submission, emphasizing Rodrigues' elite jiu-jitsu against Denis Tiuliulin's poor ground game. He notes Tiuliulin has been submitted in four of his seven losses and looked lost on the mat against Jun Yong Park. Brady worries Rodrigues might stand and bang, but if he grapples, the fight ends quickly.

win by submission, round 1
"I'll say he grapples I'll say he destroys Dennis to a Lewin in the first five minutes on the mat first round sub for Gregory Rodriguez"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Cody expects Rodrigues to take the fight to the ground and submit Tiuliulin, who has poor grappling defense. He notes Rodrigues has questionable ring IQ and may stand and trade, but if he wrestles, he wins easily. He predicts a rear-naked choke submission in the first or second round.

Rodrigues by submission; under 1.5 rounds; fight time under 5 minutes
"I would say this fight hits the ground Greg Rodriguez puts that rear [__] choke into play so sign me up for rear naked choke first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Daniel Levi picks Gregory Rodrigues, expecting him to grapple more after his last knockout loss. He notes that Rodrigues has heavy hands and a dangerous submission game, and that Tiuliulin is vulnerable on the ground, having been submitted before. Levi thinks Rodrigues will submit Tiuliulin in round one or two, but acknowledges that Tiuliulin is dangerous on the feet and has a better chin. He played under 1.5 rounds and submission props.

Under 1.5 rounds; submission in round 1 or 2
"I think he's actually gonna grapple more this fight... I think he's gonna grapple here and submit Dennis in round one or two"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues to win, likely by finish from top position. He acknowledges Rodrigues' poor chin but believes he will overwhelm Tiuliulin. He also likes a prop bet on Tiuliulin by KO due to Rodrigues' chin issues, calling it a system play.

Denis Tiuliulin by KO (plus 500)
"I'm picking Gregory Rodriguez to win this fight I don't mind the dentist by KO shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues is a high-level BJJ black belt with improving striking. Tiuliulin struggles with grapplers, as seen in his recent losses. Rodrigues will take him down and dominate from top position, likely finishing inside the distance. The moneyline is worth the chalk, but the finish prop offers a discount.

Rodrigues wins inside distance
"I'm taking Rodriguez to win this fight very easily and I think he does it inside the distance especially if you want to get a bit of a discount on that money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues, though he notes if the odds become ridiculous, betting on Tiuliulin might not be bad. He thinks Rodrigues can win on the feet or by taking the fight to the ground if needed. He criticizes Tiuliulin's hittable style and compares it unfavorably to Diaz/Covington at higher weights. He predicts a KO win for Rodrigues.

KO
"I think Gregory Rodriguez gets this one done by KO"
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
KO (punch) R1 4:13 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 0 21 of 41 51% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Gregory Rodrigues 1 22 of 45 48% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 0 21 of 41 51% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Gregory Rodrigues 1 22 of 45 48% 23 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0 19 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 22 of 45 48% 15 of 37 2 of 3 5 of 5 20 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 21 of 41 51% 16 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0 19 of 39 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gregory Rodrigues 22 of 45 48% 15 of 37 2 of 3 5 of 5 20 of 43 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brunno Ferreira vs. Gregory Rodrigues
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodrigues (-198), Ferreira (+164)

Round 1
In 2023, we thought we had been given the final answer to who wins in a collision between “Robocop” and “The Hulk,” but the promotion thought otherwise and matched them up again. Hoping to get one back against his countryman, Rodrigues (18-6, 9-3 UFC) will come in loaded for bear. The same goes for Ferreira (15-2, 6-2 UFC), as referee Chris Tognoni stands back knowing that this will likely be a short-lived firefight. Hopefully it’s nothing like that last abomination of a fight. There is indeed a touch of gloves despite their tensions at the pre-fight presser.
Ferreira wades in behind raised knees, but does not throw recklessly like usual. A full 30 seconds elapse without a single throw from either man, even in part, and it takes 45 seconds until one is offered—an oblique knee tossed out haplessly from Ferreira. “The Hulk” walks forward into a short right hook so he can fire off a bomb of a right, and Rodrigues tanks it without batting an eye. Ferreira chops at the front leg, swatting away a front kick but not countering.
“Dead or alive, you’re coming with me,” “Robocop” thinks to himself as he unloads with one single missile of a right hand that detonates about as cleanly as one can on his opponent's chin. It may have been the first strike he committed to in the entire match, and it is also his last.
Ferreira hits the ground like a sack of bricks, eyes staring in any direction but his triumphant opponent’s, who walks off pumping his fist. Clinical and clean, Rodrigues exacted revenge in a devastating way, who politely thanks his defeated opponent for taking the rematch.

The Official Result
Gregory Rodrigues def. Brunno Ferreira R1 1:47 via KO (Punch)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Rodrigues to win by first-round knockout, noting he is levels above Ferreira. He highlights Rodrigues' impressive wins over Jung Young Park and Julian Marquez, and his ability to overcome adversity. He doubts Ferreira can take Rodrigues down or have success on the mat, as Rodrigues has legit BJJ. Ferreira's only path is a knockout on the feet, which is unlikely.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna take Rodriguez to win this fight I'll take him to win by first round knockout I think he's gonna be levels above Bruno Ferreira in this matchup"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Brunno Ferreira

Cody picks Brunno Ferreira as a dog, noting he bet him at +260. He thinks Ferreira has power and a puncher's chance, and that the line is too wide. He acknowledges Ferreira is undersized and making a short-notice debut, but likes his skills. He says Gregory Rodrigues has cardio and wrestling advantages, but Ferreira could catch him early. He admits it's a risky bet but likes the value.

bet Ferreira at +260; mentions Ferreira's power and short notice
"I took a shot on Ferreira here he's way undersized he's like five foot ten he's very they call him like the Brazilian Hulk"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Connor agrees, noting Rodrigues is a much cleaner puncher and has a size advantage. He mentions Ferreira is compact and hard to submit, but Rodrigues is more likely to win the exchanges.

"Gregory Rodriguez has a lot more range and size on him and every bit of willingness to stand in and create those car crash moments."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Paul picks Gregory Rodrigues, noting his size, cardio, and wrestling advantages. He says Rodrigues can take Ferreira down and control him, and that Ferreira's takedown defense is poor. He mentions Rodrigues' durability and ability to fight through adversity. He thinks Ferreira is too much too soon on short notice. He acknowledges Rodrigues' tendency to brawl but thinks he will win.

mentions Rodrigues' wrestling and cardio; says Ferreira is a first-round finisher with suspect cardio
"I go with like likelihood like what's the likelihood I don't care what the odds are what's the likelihood or like let's say it was 65 well that's good enough for me I would take Gregory Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The Guru is confident in Rodrigues, noting Ferreira is stepping in on short notice and tends to swing wildly in the first round. Rodrigues is bigger and has looked good in recent fights, including a close decision against Petrosyan. The Guru predicts Rodrigues will put Ferreira on his ass and find a KO in the first round in a back-and-forth scrap.

KO in first round
"I'm not trusting Bruno for hair stepping in on short notice ... you're trying to throw down with Gregory RoboCop Rodriguez come on brother it ain't gonna work"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues because he is bigger, more experienced, and technically superior. He notes Ferreira is a wild brawler who creates 50/50 car crashes, but Rodrigues is a cleaner puncher with better defense. He also mentions Rodrigues' wrestling and submission threat, though he may be reckless.

Fight doesn't go to decision -550, Under 2.5 rounds -325, Rodrigues by KO/TKO +100
"I take Gregory Rodriguez. That's really it."
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40) as a key factor. He notes that Cannonier's chin and speed are declining, and while Cannonier may have early success, Rodrigues has enough power and grappling to turn the fight. Angelo also mentions he might bet the under on 4.5 rounds if the prop is available.

under 4.5 rounds (if available)
"Gregory is the pick and if we get a four and a half round line I I might Hammer that under"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Rodrigues by second-round knockout, noting Cannonier's decline in durability and performance. Cannonier was outclassed by Caio Borralho and wobbled by Vettori. Rodrigues is younger and has power, though his own chin is questionable. He expects Rodrigues to land a big shot and finish Cannonier.

knockout in round 2
"give me Ro Rodriguez and I think he stops cider in this fight I give give me Rodriguez by second round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Cannonier

Connor picks Jared Cannonier, though hesitantly. He acknowledges Cannonier has lost a step and is on a slide, but believes this is a level of fight Cannonier can still win. He points to Cannonier's hand speed, counter-punching, and ability to time counters against Rodrigues' defensive liabilities. Connor also notes that Cannonier has been competitive with top fighters like Imavov and Bahaio, and that Rodrigues' tendency to get caught by surprise makes him susceptible to Cannonier's power. However, he admits the version of Cannonier that gets big finishes might be gone, and he can also envision Cannonier getting crushed.

Connor mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"I still feel inclined to pick Canoneer though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Lucrative James picks Gregory Rodrigues despite acknowledging his suspect chin, because Jared Cannonier is 40 years old and has taken severe damage in recent fights, especially the brutal KO loss to Caio Borralho just five and a half months ago. He believes Cannonier's age and accumulated punishment make him vulnerable to Rodrigues' power and pressure. However, he notes that Rodrigues gets hit often and has been knocked out by lesser fighters, so he is not fully confident. He also mentions that Cannonier is live for a KO and may play a small prop on Cannonier by KO. He strongly recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to distance' at -250, seeing value there.

Fight doesn't go to distance at -250; under 2.5 rounds at -125; small play on Jared Cannonier by KO
"I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez and the reason I'm doing that is because of Jared's age because of the punishment he has took"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Cannonier is on a downward slope at nearly 41 years old. Rodrigues will use pace, pressure, and power to take advantage of Cannonier's diminishing durability and speed. Cannonier has been hurt in recent fights, and Rodrigues finishes him in the second or third round.

Rodrigues inside the distance, round 2 or 3
"Look for Rodriguez to utilize a solid pace and pressure and really leaning on that power... I think Rodriguez can put a stamp on this matchup by getting a finish in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

The MMA Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues over Jared Cannonier, citing Cannonier's age (40), recent damage, and lack of recent knockouts. He highlights Rodrigues' size, grappling advantage, power, and youth. He believes Rodrigues has multiple paths to victory: knockout, takedown and ground control, or submission, while Cannonier has fewer options.

"I'm going to trust in Gregory Rodriguez getting this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Gregory Rodrigues because he believes Cannonier has lost a step and no longer has the finishing ability to capitalize on Rodrigues' defensive lapses. He notes that Cannonier's tactical, non-strategic style means he gives opponents infinite chances, and with age and declining durability, those chances are now breaking against him. Zane also highlights Rodrigues' improved wrestling and strategic approach, as seen in the Brad Tavares fight, as key factors. He acknowledges Cannonier could still catch Rodrigues, but trusts the math less for Cannonier now.

Zane mentions that the odds for Rodrigues have moved from -193 to -221, and Cannonier from +147 to +182, and he doesn't think the odds should be getting longer on Cannonier. He notes that the guys who have slept Rodrigues (Bruno Ferreira, Jordan Williams) are not good fighters, implying Cannonier could still do it.
"But now I'm going to pick Gregory Rodriguez because I don't think that Cannon here is ever going to take this fight over from Rodriguez."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 11 months ago

jj