Career Averages - Modestas Bukauskas
Career Averages - Paul Craig
Modestas Bukauskas
Paul Craig
Modestas Bukauskas - Fight History
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his gut despite an uneasy feeling. He notes Bukauskas can stop some takedowns and have success striking, leading to a decision win. He recalls Bellato losing similar fights where he had takedowns but was behind on striking. He has seen Bellato quit before.
Lucrative James tentatively picks Modestas Bukauskas via decision, but expresses low confidence. He notes Bukauskas's superior footwork and range management, but also highlights concerns about his training camp disruption and lack of finishing ability. He suggests the fight could go either way and may bet on Bellato if the odds are favorable.
The host thinks Bukauskas is technically superior and should outwork Bellato, but he is hesitant due to Bellato's knockout power and aggression. He predicts Bukauskas wins by decision but would only bet if the line becomes a pick'em or Bukauskas becomes the underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 36 of 80 | 45% | 52 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Christian Edwards | 0 | 36 of 71 | 50% | 51 of 89 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 10 of 29 | 34% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Edwards | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Christian Edwards | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Christian Edwards | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 36 of 80 | 45% | 21 of 64 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 74 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Edwards | 36 of 71 | 50% | 13 of 41 | 17 of 20 | 6 of 10 | 27 of 61 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 10 of 29 | 34% | 4 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Edwards | 11 of 30 | 36% | 2 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 28 | 57% | 14 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Edwards | 11 of 22 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 10 of 23 | 43% | 3 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Christian Edwards | 14 of 19 | 73% | 8 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Cody reluctantly picks Modestas Bukauskas, noting that Christian Edwards has shown poor durability, heart, and grappling. He acknowledges that Bukauskas is not a high-level fighter but has fought better competition. However, he is not confident at -280 and considers it a dog-or-pass fight. He suggests Bukauskas by decision or an over 2.5 rounds prop.
Connor picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his experience and physicality. He notes that Edwards is a sloppy fighter who relies on clinch battles determined by strength, and Bukauskas is big and strong enough to handle that. Connor believes Bukauskas's cage wrestling and ability to pin opponents will be effective against Edwards, who struggles at range. He sees Edwards's lack of fundamentals as a major disadvantage.
Bukauskas is better everywhere and Edwards is on short notice. Bukauskas should win easily, but the odds are too short to bet. No interest in fight spread or over/under.
Paul struggles to pick a side, finding it hard to back Modestas Bukauskas at -280 and also not confident in Christian Edwards. He notes that Edwards has been knocked out by Ben Parish and lost to Rake Cleveland, but is still young and training at a good gym. He decides to pass from a betting perspective.
Zane picks Modestas Bukauskas, agreeing that Edwards's clinch-heavy style plays into Bukauskas's strengths. He notes that Bukauskas has twice the experience and is physically capable, while Edwards is awkward and anxious at range. Zane believes Bukauskas's ability to win narrow clinch battles will be enough to secure a decision or late stoppage. He views Edwards as a sloppy mess who hasn't improved.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 1 | 72 of 137 | 52% | 94 of 164 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 40 of 108 | 37% | 43 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 25 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 1 | 39 of 69 | 56% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 18 of 55 | 32% | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Krylov | 72 of 137 | 52% | 25 of 76 | 22 of 34 | 25 of 27 | 64 of 128 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 40 of 108 | 37% | 35 of 101 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 40 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikita Krylov | 10 of 28 | 35% | 3 of 17 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nikita Krylov | 23 of 40 | 57% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 11 of 32 | 34% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nikita Krylov | 39 of 69 | 56% | 14 of 39 | 13 of 16 | 12 of 14 | 35 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 18 of 55 | 32% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-165), Krylov (+130)
Round 1
A 205-pound smash-‘em-up derby keeps the action going, as the two men about to set foot in the cage are eying that new $25K finish bonus on top of the raised $100K for Fight of the Night and Performance of the Night. Krylov (30-11, 11-9 UFC) may be gunning for the latter of those two bonus checks, given his 93% stoppage rate with 23 of his 28 finishes coming in Round 1. “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas (19-6, 7-4 UFC) will need to be on his best behavior when taking on the offensive force of the Ukrainian by way of Russia, and referee Marc Goddard will see to that. They touch gloves.
Krylov bounces back and forth on his heels, and he times a high kick that careens off the guard and a low kick that slaps off the front leg. When Krylov tosses out another naked leg kick, Bukauskas belts him with a pair of punches. Krylov gets away with another calf kick, and his subsequent offering to the midsection comes up short. Bukauskas winds up and hurls punches at his opponent, who backs straight up and is just out of range. Krylov attempts a single-leg entry, and he proceeds to press Bukauskas against the cage wall. Bukauskas looks to use a body lock when the first effort fails, and he works his foe’s knees while grinding on him. Krylov aims to slip his leg around Bukauskas’ to disrupt his balance, and he tackles the Lithuanian to the floor for a moment. Bukauskas bounces back up and gets pushed to the wall, and the crowd is not having it.
Krylov transitions from one takedown attempt to another, but Bukauskas is able to defend them and stay upright. Goddard claps for them to do more, and Krylov grabs hold of a single and lifts the leg up high. Bukauskas springs away and barely evades a head kick on the way out, and when he tries to engage, he gets caught with a right hand on the temple. Krylov peppers with kicks on the outside, and one of his low kicks is met with a blistering right hand that makes him take a quick count of his teeth. Bukauskas swats with a left and then a right hand, and Krylov springs into action with a kick and swinging fists that miss by a wide margin. Another Krylov blitz is met with counters, but he steels himself and shakes up “The Baltic Gladiator” with a right hand. Bukauskas retreats to gather his thoughts, and Krylov lets him off the hook as the two reach the round horn for the first time of any fight tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Krylov
Round 2
The 205ers touch gloves to get started, and it takes a couple seconds before Krylov unveils his first offensive tactic of a body kick. Bukauskas replies with a one-two, and they both toss out kicks at the same time to different targets. Bukauskas clips Krylov with a left hand on the way out, and fists quickly fly in an exchange at the center of the cage. Krylov works the body with a kick, and this draws out some hard swings from Bukauskas that drive him back. The Ukrainian ducks a huge haymaker and engages in a clinch with hopes of scoring a takedown, but Bukauskas is able to stifle them and spin him around against the wire. They jockey for position and trade knees up the middle, with neither man gaining the upper hand as they stay at it.
Krylov gets off a solid knee to the breadbasket and shoots, but the takedown hits a wall. Goddard asks for them to do more, and they answer by shoving one another away. Krylov’s mouthpiece falls out, and he quickly puts it back in as Bukauskas lets him do so. Krylov lumbers forward and smacks Bukauskas in the temple with a lead-leg head kick, and he skims his man on the temple with a looping left. Bukauskas sits down on a chopping kick, and he slides away from the trio of punches aimed at his mug. Krylov narrowly evades bombs chucked at his chin, although Bukauskas is able to get him a few times. Krylov strikes back, with his blows having an impact as Bukauskas’ left cheek is swelling up fast. Krylov ducks down for a looping right, and he dodges a big right hand and manages to kick the body on the way out. Bukauskas overswings his right hand and is blocked, with “The Baltic Gladiator” hunting for that home run blow. He manages to get off a spinning back kick to the body, and they trade hands until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
The two reach the final round and share a fist bump before throwing caution to the wind. Both men lob huge hooks at one another, and they largely escape the damage from them thanks to just enough head movement. Krylov goes low to high with two kicks, and he steps in and blasts Bukauskas with a left hand. Krylov gets off another booming punch, and Bukauskas sits down on counters but largely comes up short. “The Miner” digs a kick to the midsection and is countered, but the damage is done as his kick connected. Bukauskas waits for the one big opening, and Krylov is dancing around the edges of range hitting him with anything he offers. Bukauskas snaps the head back with a solid left, but it is one-and-done before Krylov rushes at him to trade leather. Bukauskas clips him again, and Krylov pays no attention to the blow and plods ever forward. He works the body with a kick, and sways back from the looping counters.
Bukauskas lands a calf kick, and Krylov nods at him and doubles up on kicks from his rear leg. Bukauskas keeps his guard up to defend himself from the blows, and he winds up on a right hand that misses the mark. Krylov tanks two punches on the jaw and frustrates his foe with push kicks to the body. Krylov sneaks in a left hand while hurling heavy shots, and Bukauskas is left playing catch-up. They trade punches after Bukauskas absorbs a calf kick, and Bukauskas tries to take advantage of the strike by loading up on more. They miss, and the crowd boos. Krylov leads with a low kick into a jab, and he gets caught by a right hand and waves Bukauskas on for more. Bukauskas gives him more with a crisp left, and Krylov dances around and switches stances a few times. Krylov dodges a wheel kick and gets blazed with a right hand, and he is on a mission. Hearing the 10-second clapper, “The Miner” digs deep and unloads with a fire and fury while Bukauskas is overloading on his own strikes.
Krylov catches his man cleanly with a ferocious right hand that sets “The Baltic Gladiator” down and forces his eyes to roll around in his head. Bukauskas turns to try to recover, crawling to his knees to the fence, and Krylov races after him and batters him with destructive right hands. One particularly effective fist shuts Bukauskas’ lights out and his post arms give way, leading to Bukauskas collapsing on his face like a failed push-up.
Goddard sees that Bukauskas went out and rushes in to stop the fight, keeping the finish streak—and buzzer-beater pattern—alive today. It may have taken just about 15 minutes to get there, but Krylov registered a huge knockout after a close battle, his first since 2022 when he smoked Alexander Gustafsson.
The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Modestas Bukauskas R3 4:57 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, trusting his takedown defense and power. He thinks Nikita Krylov is the better overall fighter but has a weak chin, and Bukauskas only needs one clean shot. He warns Bukauskas not to engage in grappling like he did against Paul Craig.
Big Brady thinks Krylov is washed, citing his age (33 but 41 fights), long layoff, and two recent KO losses where he looked old and hesitant. He notes Krylov has stopped grappling, which was his best attribute. Bukauskas has been improving, and Brady expects him to knock out Krylov in the second round.
Cody confidently picks Bukauskas, arguing that Krylov is washed after a two-year layoff and two first-round KO losses. He notes Bukauskas's defensive wrestling and cardio should allow him to survive the first round and take over. Cody believes Bukauskas's ring generalship and durability will be enough to edge out a win.
Connor is sad about Krylov's decline, noting his chin is gone after two consecutive knockouts. He observes that Krylov looks panicked and flailing in recent fights, while Bukauskas has been improving, becoming more composed and taking opportunities. Connor believes Bukauskas's accuracy and incidental power could lead to a knockout, especially given Krylov's compromised durability.
Daniel Vreeland picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by knockout. He notes that Krylov has lost two straight by first-round KO and appears washed, while Bukauskas is on a hot streak and brimming with confidence. Vreeland believes Bukauskas is catching Krylov at the perfect time and will get the biggest win of his career.
James picks Krylov as an underdog, believing the line is too wide due to recency bias. He notes Krylov's superior skill set and grappling, and that Bukauskas has struggled with grappling. He also mentions inside info that Bukauskas's training camp has been disrupted. However, he acknowledges Krylov's chin might be shot.
The host picks Bukauskas by knockout, believing his improved striking and defensive grappling will nullify Krylov's takedowns. He notes Krylov is on a two-fight losing streak and may be desperate, but Bukauskas's recent form and training with top heavyweights give him the edge. He loves the -140 line but has slight pause due to Bukauskas's past bonehead mistakes.
Paul leans toward Modestas Bukauskas, citing Krylov's recent durability issues and poor form. He notes Bukauskas is a generalist who can outwork Krylov, especially if the fight goes past the first round. Paul is hesitant due to Bukauskas's wrestling vulnerability but believes Krylov's decline is real.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Nikita Krylov's charging style and chin. He notes Bukauskas's growing confidence and counter-striking ability, predicting a KO in round two after an initial scrap.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Krylov's chin is gone and he looks like he's swimming out there. He notes that Bukauskas is peaking at 31 and has become more accurate and composed. Zane also comments on Krylov's lack of confidence and panicked starts, which Bukauskas can exploit.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 30 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 30 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 22 of 36 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 22 of 36 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-350); Craig (+280)
Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot is now occupied by a light heavyweight car crash in the form of Lithuania’s Bukauskas (18-6, 5-4 UFC) against “Bearjew” Craig (17-9-1, 1 NC; 9-9-1, 1 NC UFC). While Bukauskas celebrates a stoppage rate over 70%, Craig has still never needed the judges to get his hand raised after all these years. Referee Marc Goddard will keep things on the up-and-up here, and he stands back as the athletes come towards one another without touching gloves.
Bukauskas is able to get his hands on Craig early, scoring at the end of a left hand. Craig bounces off the fencing, and Bukauskas smacks him with a low kick. Craig whiffs on a high kick, and his calf is struck once more in response. Bukauskas charges with a flurry of punches and results in a clinch, which is where Craig would prefer to be. Bukauskas lands a few short clinch strikes, and he backs off and avoids a looping hook in time. Bukauskas goes back to his calf kick, with the two trading this particular blow until Craig spins at him with a back kick. Bukauskas skips forward to ding Craig with an overhand right, and he is driven back from a spinning kick to the ribs.
They land leg kicks on one another, and Bukauskas blocks a kick in time and is reminded of a past loss to Khalil Rountree when Craig stomps at his knee. Craig gets hold of Bukauskas and pushes him from one side of the Octagon to the other. Craig looks to trip Bukauskas up, and he tries to muscle his man down but Bukauskas is able to keep upright. Craig laces his leg between his foe’s, and he abandons the effort to knee the body a few times. Bukauskas turns him about and plants knees on his torso. Craig jumps guard, and he slides off Bukauskas and hits the ground. Bukauskas lets him hit the floor so he can rain down punches, and he elects to get into Craig’s guard. Bukauskas drums his opponent’s head off the canvas with his devastating ground-and-pound.
Craig turns to defend the strikes, and Bukauskas postures up and demolishes him with one of the most destructive elbows one could ever see or hear. The horn sounds, and Craig lifelessly slumps to his side. Goddard recognizes that Craig is out cold and waves the fight off as five minutes had elapsed.
Luckily for “Bearjew,” he is able to come to shortly thereafter, and he congratulates Bukauskas for sending him astral traveling. While Bukauskas celebrates his handiwork and calls for a top-15 opponent, Craig removes his gloves to signal his retirement, thanking everyone for the memories while noting that the young eat the old in this sport.
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Paul Craig R1 5:00 via KO (Elbow)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas confidently, citing his versatile striking, takedown defense, and power. He believes Bukauskas will chop down Craig's legs and avoid his submission threats. He notes Craig's poor takedown entries and mediocre striking. He was swayed by Bukauskas' hype video showing his comeback.
Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's recent point-fighting style. He believes Bukauskas can outstrike Craig from the outside and avoid his guard. He expects a boring decision win for Bukauskas, as Craig no longer wrestles or pulls guard effectively.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bukauskas. He notes that Paul Craig is vulnerable everywhere—standing, on his back, and even on top—and that Bukauskas is a solid fighter who can win without engaging on the ground. He emphasizes that Craig's fragility makes him likely to get hurt in exchanges.
The host believes Bukauskas can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance, and avoid overextending to prevent takedowns. He expects Bukauskas to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's lack of improvement in standup over a decade. He believes Bukauskas' pressure and straight rights will catch Craig early. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Bukauskas' ability to cut off the cage and land devastating shots.
Zane picks Bukauskas easily, noting that Paul Craig's striking is a mess and his takedown accuracy is poor. He believes Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and hurt Craig, or take him down and control him without getting submitted. He calls the fight unnecessary but sees Bukauskas as a solid functional fighter who should win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 44 of 92 | 47% | 52 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 58 of 130 | 44% | 121 of 194 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 50 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 54 of 74 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 44 of 92 | 47% | 37 of 85 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 58 of 130 | 44% | 18 of 74 | 16 of 19 | 24 of 37 | 47 of 117 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 12 of 34 | 35% | 7 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 17 of 46 | 36% | 4 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 16 | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 32 | 50% | 15 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 25 of 49 | 51% | 11 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 13 | 20 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 26 | 61% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ion Cuțelaba | 16 of 35 | 45% | 3 of 18 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-112), Cutelaba (-108)
Round 1
Keeping to the light heavyweight division, there is a very realistic scenario that both men will hold .500 records in the Octagon if one man prevails. Bukauskas (17-6, 5-4 UFC) has done his absolute best to make up for an early rough stretch, while “The Hulk” Cutelaba (19-10-1, 1 NC; 8-9-1 UFC) is aiming to smash his way back to that midpoint range. Both men vastly prefer the knockout, but they have also sustained multiple stoppage losses of that type in the past as well. Referee Dan Miragliotta dons his proverbial hard hat as the 31-year-olds do not bother to touch gloves. Bukauskas leads off with a long, leaping jab. Cutelaba kicks him back in the front leg, doing so one more time when Bukauskas changes stances. Cutelaba keeps at it until Bukauskas fires one back at him, and it does not slow him for long. Cutelaba turns his hips into an especially heavy calf kick, and he leans back as a one-two comes up just short of his face. Bukauskas is unable to reach his foe with punches, while Cutelaba kicks him at will. Bukauskas steps in and catches Cutelaba with a left hand, and he follows with a right that “The Hulk” takes on the chin without batting an eye. Cutelaba fires back with an overhand right, and he offers a body kick and spins with a wheel kick that both bounce off the guard. Cutelaba catches Bukauskas at the end of a calf kick, and he parries a body kick and blocks a subsequent head kick. Bukauskas snaps out a jab, and he sways to avoid the worst of an overhand right. Cutelaba does not falter kicking the front leg time and time again, and they clash together with hooks that partially land. Cutelaba has a massive uppercut and right hand knock out the air around the Lithuanian, and he plants his legs and pounds on Bukauskas’ from leg. Bukauskas gets off a two-punch combo and rushes back knowing “The Hulk” is coming after him. Bukauskas chains together two one-twos that catch the Moldovan on the chin, and once more, he no-sells them and walks forward. They both miss with spinning back kicks to the body, and Cutelaba tries to corner Bukauskas with a low kick and times a left hand when Bukauskas advances. Cutelaba plants his heel on Bukauskas’ side with a spin kick, and Bukauskas tries to do something similar but cannot score it. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Round 2
The second round opens up with Cutelaba pressing forward, landing a few punches and mixing in kicks. The Moldovan follows the success with another blitz, backing his opponent up and drilling Bukauskas with a right hand. They crash together, and Cutelaba spins with an elbow that bangs into Bukauskas’ jaw. It is Cutelaba who goes flying after the blow lands, because he spun himself off-balance, and he recovers quickly. Cutelaba considers a level change, and he runs into a stone wall that he pushes against the fence. Cutelaba grinds his man against the fencing, offering a knee or two but otherwise stalling out. They jockey for position when in the clinch, and Miragliotta separates them. Cutelaba spins with a wheel kick out of nowhere, and both men trip and nearly go down without the strike connecting. They get back to their feet, and Cutelaba chases his man with an overhand right. When he pitches a naked leg kick, Bukauskas counters with two punches. Cutelaba sits down on a hard right hand, and Bukauskas has to blink it out but is otherwise unconcerned. Cutelaba keeps his guard up, and he rushes forward and lands a couple punches and a kick at the end. Cutelaba offers a leg kick and ducks down to fire off a right hand when he sees Bukauskas coming forward, and he throws a wheel kick so hard that he falls over when it is way out of range. Cutelaba stands, and he initiates a brawl. Bukauskas catches him and nearly gets blasted, having to circle around to regain his footing. One final brawl ensues, with Bukauskas getting the better of the final exchange before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Cutelaba
Round 3
Cutelaba is energized to start off the final frame, pushing forward immediately but not able to catch Bukauskas standing still. He settles for a few chopping calf kicks, and he shoots in for a double from afar that Bukauskas is able to defend thanks to the wall behind him. The clinch position stalls the two 205ers out, who trade occasional knees but do little more to satisfy Miragliotta. They are separated, and Cutelaba is the aggressor again. Clipping Bukauskas with a left hand, Cutelaba keeps marching forward and lashes out with a low kick that scores, and a spinning back kick that bangs into his foe’s midsection. Cutelaba stomps out with a kick to the front knee, and Bukauskas is tired of waiting and lays into “The Hulk” with a massive right hand. Cutelaba does not so much as flinch, and eats another huge punch that he once more shrugs off. Cutelaba follows his foe around the cage, and he skims a spin kick off the body and reaches at the end of a right hand. Bukauskas goes high with a kick that is blocked, and he stings Cutelaba with a check hook and forces the Moldovan to shoot in on his hips. Bukauskas stops the takedown but is otherwise pushed to the wire, where they spin one another around. They give one another knees to the guts, and Cutelaba goes for a trip that is unable to get his man down. Bukauskas pushes off and lets his hands go, only for Cutelaba to tie him back up. Miragliotta calls for action as Bukauskas leans on his opponent, and he breaks and spins with an elbow. Cutelaba busts him in the chops with a right hand, and swings for the bleachers with a few more. The final strike of the fight is a spinning kick from the Lithuanian to the midsection, and a slightly bloodied Cutelaba raises his hands to signal he thinks he won the fight. Time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Cutelaba)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Cutelaba)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas (29-28 Cutelaba)
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Ion Cutelaba via Split Decision (27-30, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas as the more technically sound and well-rounded fighter, but acknowledges Ion Cuțelaba is unpredictable and dangerous. He notes Cuțelaba has power and offensive takedowns but no takedown defense. Angelo mentions a potential bet on Cuțelaba inside the distance with decision no action, but his pick is Bukauskas. He emphasizes that picks are not bets and he wouldn't bet on Bukauskas.
Big Brady thinks Cuțelaba has multiple paths to victory: he hits harder, is more durable, and can mix in wrestling. He notes Bukauskas is chinny, hittable, and has poor takedown defense. He believes Cuțelaba's losses have come against high-level or dangerous opponents, while Bukauskas is neither. He predicts Cuțelaba wins by decision, landing bigger shots and mixing in wrestling.
Connor also picks Bukauskas, emphasizing that Cuțelaba is a 'pure wild man' who never learns and makes tactical errors. He notes that Bukauskas has good straight punches and can knock Cuțelaba out, but also acknowledges that Bukauskas's passivity could allow Cuțelaba back into the fight. Overall, Connor sees Bukauskas as the more reliable fighter.
The host believes Bukauskas is in the best form of his career and will thwart Cuțelaba's power striking and grappling. He expects Bukauskas to use his cardio, technical striking, and improved grappling to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Cuțelaba as a slight underdog, citing Bukauskas' knee injury and susceptibility to pressure. He thinks Cuțelaba's wrestling and early aggression will exploit Bukauskas' compromised leg, leading to a finish in the first or second round by TKO or submission.
Zane picks Bukauskas, arguing that Cuțelaba is prone to self-destruction and tactical mistakes, while Bukauskas, despite being passive, has better fundamentals. He notes that Cuțelaba often squanders winning positions and makes catastrophic errors, whereas Bukauskas throws good straight punches and can capitalize. Zane expects Bukauskas to win, though he may make it closer than necessary.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 1 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Raffael Cerqueira | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 1 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 16 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Raffael Cerqueira | 0 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 41 | 39% | 11 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Raffael Cerqueira | 9 of 22 | 40% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 16 of 41 | 39% | 11 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Raffael Cerqueira | 9 of 22 | 40% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The UFC treks to Seattle for the first time since 2013, when flyweight king Demetrious Johnson put his belt on the line against John Moraga. The sport never stops moving, and none of the 24 fighters on the lineup of that event will be competing tonight at UFC Fight Night 252. The matchmakers put together a show that even with a ton of injuries and changeups, it has the potential to be hot fire, just like Dylan. A pair of light heavyweight sluggers grace the cage first, and with 22 finishes across their 27 combined wins, referee Jeff Hoiby is already hyper-focused on what’s about to happen next. With a fresh look at the division after leaving the company for a pair of fights, Bukauskas (16-6, 4-4 UFC) has fared better his second time around. On the other hand, Cerqueira (11-1, 0-1 UFC) introduced himself to the masses in October and had his block knocked off by a man in Ibo Aslan who will be competing later. It’s likely knock out or be knocked out, but before they try for that, the fighters bump fists. Bukauskas introduces himself with an axe kick of all strikes, and the Brazilian is well away from him as he watches it go wide. Bukauskas walks his man down and busts him in the chops with a right hand and a left, and Cerqueira bounces off the cage wall and sets up a body kick. Bukauskas reaches with a long right hand, and he paws out with a front kick and a low kick. Cerqueira strikes back at the lead leg, but he leaves himself over for an overhand right that skims the forward bow. Bukauskas turns his hips into a low kick, and this time it is him who is wide-open for a one-two down the pipe. Bukauskas targets the pectoral with a right hand, only to get his chin checked with another clean one-two. Cerqueira loads up on a power punch and gets the attention of “The Baltic Gladiator,” but he also gets tagged on the way out. Bukauskas strides forward, fired up and ready to go, and he unleashes a flurry of fists that crash into the chin of “The Lion.” Cerqueira’s eyes go wide as he is surprised he got clipped, and he backs towards the wall in hopes of getting his balance.
This is the worst thing he can do, as he leans back and has his chin straight up in the air. Bukauskas does not let his man off the hook, blasting him in the face with powerful punches that shake the Brazilian up and separate him from his senses. Cerqueira crumbles to the floor, lights on but no one is home, and Hoiby rushes in to stop the fight.
The victorious Lithuanian walks off triumphantly and hits a picture-perfect back flip to further wow the masses. That is one heck of a way to start the night, as the crowd goes wild.
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The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Raffael Cerqueira R1 2:12 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Bukauskas but is hesitant because he sees Cerqueira as dangerous and unproven. He notes Bukauskas has been knocked out four times and had trouble with Marcin Prachnio, while Cerqueira has 10 stoppages in 11 wins but was knocked out in his UFC debut. He says there's no world where he bets on Bukauskas at -350 and will leave this fight alone.
Big Brady picks Raffael Cerqueira despite being a complete unknown with only two fights available to watch. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas is low-volume, lacks power, and has never looked like a -310 favorite against anyone. He believes Cerqueira has a significant advantage on the ground as a BJJ black belt training with Guto Almeida, and that Bukauskas's technical striking advantage is negated by his low output. He calls this a '100% gambler fight' and picks Cerqueira by knockout, though he admits the fight is awful.
The host believes the line is too wide but expects Bukauskas's striking style to shut down Cerqueira's BJJ and Muay Thai. He predicts Bukauskas will chip away and win on the scorecards.
The Guru dismisses Raffael Cerqueira after his poor debut where he covered up and accepted defeat. He believes Bukauskas is more technical, matches in size and athleticism, and is a real fighter. He refuses to pick Cerqueira again, calling him a non-fighter who fought weak regional competition.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 56 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:31 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 70 of 139 | 50% | 120 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 35 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 67 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 38 of 76 | 50% | 28 of 64 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 62 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 70 of 139 | 50% | 19 of 74 | 31 of 44 | 20 of 21 | 58 of 123 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 26 of 61 | 42% | 2 of 29 | 10 of 17 | 14 of 15 | 25 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 17 of 31 | 54% | 14 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 34 of 58 | 58% | 8 of 26 | 20 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 44 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 10 of 20 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-155), Prachnio (+130)
Round 1
When the dust settles between these light heavyweights, one of them will reach the .500 mark on their UFC ledger while the other will fall two wins beneath it. Bukauskas (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is trying to build up his resume on his second stint with the promotion, while Prachnio (17-7, 4-5 UFC) wants to disappoint home fans by beating the fighter training in England. With similar finish rates of 73% and 71%, respectively, they might need to involve referee Marc Goddard before the final horn. The 205ers touch ‘em up, and Prachnio introduces himself with a trio of leg kicks. Bukauskas swings back with a looping right hand, but his foe is out of range. Prachnio sweeps the leg, or at least tries to, but his second kick nearly buckles Bukauskas’ knee on the inside. Bukauskas times a hard left hand when Prachnio sells out on a low kick, and he leans back to watch a side kick to the face come up short. Prachnio continues working the front leg no matter the stance, and he pushes off to disallow Bukauskas from reaching him with two hooks. Bukauskas sits down on a left hand, getting Prachnio’s attention, and Prachnio gathers himself and keeps on chopping down the tree. Bukauskas loops a left around the guard, and he kicks a ducking Prachnio in the face. They clash together, and Prachnio stumbles before recovering. Prachnio tries to land a spinning wheel kick that ends up bouncing off the guard, and he peppers the front leg and thigh with kicks. Prachnio winds up and drills Bukauskas with a massive right hand, and Bukauskas eats it like a bowl of kugelis. Prachnio races forward throwing a kick, and Bukauskas grabs hold of him and turns him to the fencing. On the break, the Lithuanian dings Prachnio with a spinning elbow, but Prachnio appears unconcerned. Bukauskas races forward throwing hands, and a right hand careens off the temple and wobbles Prachnio. Bukauskas unleashes a salvo of vicious punches, but Prachnio is able to rebound off the fenced and get his footing. Prachnio chips at the front leg, and he lumbers forward throwing inaccurate punches. Bukauskas switches stances frequently, and he beans Prachnio with a huge right hand. Prachnio goes after another spinning wheel kick that is a long way away, and Bukauskas stays composed until he throws a bit too hard, and gets caught with a counter on the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 2
The two touch gloves and go right into a brawl, winging power hooks with no concern of defense. They backpedal momentarily, and Prachnio scores a leg kick and connects with an overhand right. Prachnio kicks low a few times before going high, and Bukauskas blocks the head kick but eats a body kick that follows. Prachnio gets into range and is met with a pair of hooks, and he takes a few steps back to kick the front leg. Prachnio lunges and gets countered, but he ends with a body kick. The low kicks of the Polish fighter are starting to compromise Bukauskas, but Prachnio decides to throw caution to the wind and whiff with a comical windmilling right hand that is feet off the mark. Prachnio takes a moment to stop fighting so recklessly, and Bukauskas uses the moment to belt Prachnio with a handful of punches that rock Prachnio. In the ensuing melee, Bukauskas absorbs a flush head kick in close range and gets his bell rung, and he has no choice but to back off as he was in trouble too. Both fighters wobbled and hurt, they end up clinching, with Bukauskas pressing Prachnio against the wire. Bukauskas drops to his knees for a takedown, and Prachnio stands him up and knees him in the gut to break. Prachnio doubles up on the knee when he gets in close, and Bukauskas backs off and smacks him with a left hand. A body lock takedown from Bukauskas succeeds in planting Prachnio on his back, and Prachnio grabs hold of the fence for several seconds and does not let it go as Goddard watches on without saying anything. Bukauskas moves to half guard, and Prachnio lets go so he can block his face but ultimately takes several elbows off the dome. Bukauskas walks right into side control and threatens briefly with a kimura, but lets it go so he can knee Prachnio in the side and elbow him as well. Prachnio briefly drags Bukauskas back to his guard, but Bukauskas easily gest back to half guard. Prachnio wall-walks to get back up, and they dirty box in the clinch until the violent round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prachnio
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
Gloves are touched, and fists immediately fly. Prachnio elects to go out swinging, and he pummels the Lithuanian with a flurry of fierce punches that knock him back to the fencing. Bukauskas takes advantage of Prachnio’s momentum and hits a body lock trip to redeposit Prachnio flat on his back. Bukauskas moves to half guard to control his opponent, and he lands short shots to stay busy. Goddard warns Prachnio for punches that wrap around to the back of the head, and Bukauskas ignores them while maintaining controlling posture. Goddard asks for more work, and Bukauskas keeps on slowly working from above while not attempting many fight-ending strikes.
Bukauskas sits up to drive two elbows home before leaning down with an arm-triangle choke position. Bukauskas lowers himself flat to smother his opponent while clutching the submission grip tight, and he is on the wrong side but does not seem to care. Bukauskas remains flat and crushes down on his adversary, and even out of position he squeezes with all his might. Prachnio cannot hang on any longer, and he taps out.
Prachnio thinks about standing up after the fight's conclusion, but he does not have the energy to do it. Meanwhile, the victorious Lithuanian hits a back flip to show he still has something left in the tank.
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Marcin Prachnio R3 3:12 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his youth and well-roundedness. He notes that Prachnio has power but is chinny and can be knockout or bust. Angelo expects Bukauskas to win and hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet on.
Cody picks Marcin Prachnio, citing his volume striking and improved cardio. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas has low output and has looked unimpressive in his UFC return, with close fights against lower-level competition. Cody believes Prachnio's pressure and output will overwhelm Bukauskas, and that he can win by decision or even knockout.
Daniel thinks Marcin Prachnio has a higher work rate and will outwork Modestas Bukauskas. He notes both have poor chins but Prachnio pushes a higher pace. He picks the underdog Prachnio.
Paul leans towards Prachnio, noting that Bukauskas has low volume and no real power. He believes Prachnio's volume advantage (5.61 significant strikes per minute vs 3.28) will be key, and that the fight likely goes to a decision where Prachnio edges it. However, he is not fully confident and may pass on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog, citing Prachnio's better technical striking and leg-kicking ability. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas lacks finishing potential and a strong grappling game, often letting fights go to split decisions. Prachnio is known for chewing up opponents' legs, and Bukauskas has a history of leg injuries. The Guru also questions Bukauskas's training camp with heavyweights, suggesting it may not be ideal for this matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 1 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 14 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 6 of 21 | 28% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petrino (-218), Bukauskas (+180)
Round 1
The second of three undefeated Brazilians on the card takes center stage next, as Petrino (9-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to pick up his 10th win as a pro at the expense of Bukauskas (15-5, 3-3 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly shortly between these two light heavyweights, but before they do, referee Marc Goddard has to clock them in. A brief tap of the gloves leads to a faked kick from Bukauskas, who looks for his range and manages to plant his shin on Petrino’s calf early. Bukauskas fires off a head kick to follow, and Petrino’s guard is up well in time to defend. Bukauskas comes up short with another high kick, and he parries a jab and whiffs with a low kick. Bukauskas protects his face from an oncoming head kick, and he pokes at the lead calf. Petrino paws out a jab and absorbs a thumping calf kick, and he tosses another high kick that does not find its target. Jabs are attempted from both sides, and Bukauskas reaches out with a left hook and blocks a kick aimed at his temple. Petrino doubles up on a jab and fires off a left hook that grazes the hair, and they reset with a jab from both men. Petrino sneaks in a jab, and he takes a calf kick and attempts a takedown. When he trips Bukauskas up, the Brazilian elects to lift Bukauskas in the air and slam him down with a powerbomb seen in the professional wrestling circuits. When Bukauskas looks to scramble, Petrino continues maintaining top position while shifting into half guard. Bukauskas defends himself from any ground-and-pound by hanging onto Petrino’s forearms, and the subsequent inactivity prompts Goddard to issue a warning. Petrino scores a pair of punches, and Bukauskas bucks off and starts striking back. A few more short punches from Petrino end the low-paced frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Goddard steps in 15 seconds into the round to command that Bukauskas get his mouthpiece replaced, and that the commission get it together. When they resume after the awkward pause, both men go for big strikes, and they partially connect.
Bukauskas looks to settle down with a jab, and as soon as he sits down on it, Petrino slides to the side and uncorks a short but lethal left hook that completely flatlines Bukauskas. The back of Bukauskas’ head clatters off the floor as his eyes roll back, and an attentive Goddard leaps in before Petrino can clobber him with any additional strikes.
Bukauskas tries to get back to his feet and motion that he was just flash knocked down, but he needs help standing up as commission and medical officials rush to his aid. This is a massive victory for the still-undefeated Petrino, who has performed finishes in eight of his 10 pro wins to date.
The Official Result
Vitor Petrino def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 1:03 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.
Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.
James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.
Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.
Paul Craig - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 30 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 30 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 22 of 36 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 22 of 36 | 61% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 19 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-350); Craig (+280)
Round 1
The “featured fight of the night” slot is now occupied by a light heavyweight car crash in the form of Lithuania’s Bukauskas (18-6, 5-4 UFC) against “Bearjew” Craig (17-9-1, 1 NC; 9-9-1, 1 NC UFC). While Bukauskas celebrates a stoppage rate over 70%, Craig has still never needed the judges to get his hand raised after all these years. Referee Marc Goddard will keep things on the up-and-up here, and he stands back as the athletes come towards one another without touching gloves.
Bukauskas is able to get his hands on Craig early, scoring at the end of a left hand. Craig bounces off the fencing, and Bukauskas smacks him with a low kick. Craig whiffs on a high kick, and his calf is struck once more in response. Bukauskas charges with a flurry of punches and results in a clinch, which is where Craig would prefer to be. Bukauskas lands a few short clinch strikes, and he backs off and avoids a looping hook in time. Bukauskas goes back to his calf kick, with the two trading this particular blow until Craig spins at him with a back kick. Bukauskas skips forward to ding Craig with an overhand right, and he is driven back from a spinning kick to the ribs.
They land leg kicks on one another, and Bukauskas blocks a kick in time and is reminded of a past loss to Khalil Rountree when Craig stomps at his knee. Craig gets hold of Bukauskas and pushes him from one side of the Octagon to the other. Craig looks to trip Bukauskas up, and he tries to muscle his man down but Bukauskas is able to keep upright. Craig laces his leg between his foe’s, and he abandons the effort to knee the body a few times. Bukauskas turns him about and plants knees on his torso. Craig jumps guard, and he slides off Bukauskas and hits the ground. Bukauskas lets him hit the floor so he can rain down punches, and he elects to get into Craig’s guard. Bukauskas drums his opponent’s head off the canvas with his devastating ground-and-pound.
Craig turns to defend the strikes, and Bukauskas postures up and demolishes him with one of the most destructive elbows one could ever see or hear. The horn sounds, and Craig lifelessly slumps to his side. Goddard recognizes that Craig is out cold and waves the fight off as five minutes had elapsed.
Luckily for “Bearjew,” he is able to come to shortly thereafter, and he congratulates Bukauskas for sending him astral traveling. While Bukauskas celebrates his handiwork and calls for a top-15 opponent, Craig removes his gloves to signal his retirement, thanking everyone for the memories while noting that the young eat the old in this sport.
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Paul Craig R1 5:00 via KO (Elbow)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas confidently, citing his versatile striking, takedown defense, and power. He believes Bukauskas will chop down Craig's legs and avoid his submission threats. He notes Craig's poor takedown entries and mediocre striking. He was swayed by Bukauskas' hype video showing his comeback.
Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's recent point-fighting style. He believes Bukauskas can outstrike Craig from the outside and avoid his guard. He expects a boring decision win for Bukauskas, as Craig no longer wrestles or pulls guard effectively.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bukauskas. He notes that Paul Craig is vulnerable everywhere—standing, on his back, and even on top—and that Bukauskas is a solid fighter who can win without engaging on the ground. He emphasizes that Craig's fragility makes him likely to get hurt in exchanges.
The host believes Bukauskas can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance, and avoid overextending to prevent takedowns. He expects Bukauskas to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's lack of improvement in standup over a decade. He believes Bukauskas' pressure and straight rights will catch Craig early. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Bukauskas' ability to cut off the cage and land devastating shots.
Zane picks Bukauskas easily, noting that Paul Craig's striking is a mess and his takedown accuracy is poor. He believes Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and hurt Craig, or take him down and control him without getting submitted. He calls the fight unnecessary but sees Bukauskas as a solid functional fighter who should win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-375), Craig (+295)
Round 1
What was previously booked a few weeks ago fell apart due to a sudden outbreak of cold sores for the favored man. The UFC puts it back together, knowing that if light heavyweight co-headliner goes all 15 minutes, something may have gone horribly wrong between these two ludicrously aggressive fighters. In their combined 29 wins, they have just one decision between them. Craig (17-9-1, 9-9-1 UFC) still celebrates his gaudy 100% finish rate, while Bellato (12-2-1, 1-0-1 UFC) went the distance for the LFA title that springboarded him to DWCS. Referee Kevin MacDonald dons his proverbial hard hat for this explosive contest, and the fighters decide to bump their large fists together before going for broke. Bellato resides in the center of the age, pump-faking and feinting but not throwing anything. Instead, Craig lands first, in the form of a hefty body kick. Bellato swings and misses with huge hooks that might have dome some serious damage, and he is not messing around early. Bellato chips at the lead leg and jabs the midsection, getting met with a body kick on the way out. Bellato’s leg kick finds its home again, and his right hand is wound up ready to strike. Instead, the Brazilian clinches, and he bounces out and rocks Craig with a right hand. Craig responds with a spinning back kick to the breadbasket, and he takes some of the sting off a front kick aimed at his chest. Craig spins with another back kick that lands flush, and he jabs and shoots for a takedown that does not come. Bellato stays focused on welting up the Scot’s front leg, and he ignores a left hand so he can prepare for a takedown that comes. Bellato stuffs it and wings a right hand, and the looping hook buzzes past Craig’s beard. Bellato takes two more body kicks, nods and stalks “Bearjew” down. Craig rips another kick to the ribs, and he spins with a back kick and drops down for a single. Bellato frames off and keeps his balance, forcing Craig to sell out and drop down for it while pushing the heavy betting favorite against the wall. Craig trips Bellato up, and as if he had springs in his shorts, Bellato bounces off the mat to get back to his feet. Craig ducks a huge punch and goes after a takedown, but Bellato bowls him over and lands heavily in half guard. Bellato flirts with an arm-triangle setup, retaining heavy chest pressure to not allow Craig to do something off his back. Bellato postures up and stands up with 10 seconds to go, smacking Craig with a low kick and diving down.
Craig pushes off of him and belts Bellato with a brutal upkick while Bellato’s right knee is down. The stunner of an upkick knocks Bellato clean out, who collapses to his back. After a few seconds he snaps back to consciousness and looks terrified, eyes wide as dinner plates, and he scurries towards the wall to defend himself from an unknown threat.
Still not knowing where he is, Bellato seats himself against the fence, and when MacDonald approaches him, Bellato tries to grapple him and even attempts a leglock. MacDonald calmly, professionally informs Bellato that he got knocked out, and calls for a replay to determine the legality of the blow. It is clear the fight is over and that Bellato will not be able to continue, so the only question is whether MacDonald will declare this fight result a disqualification or a no contest. Meanwhile, virtual judge Devin Tejada specifically requested that his round score of a 10-6 in favor of Craig be declared here even though the round did not end. This is a rough situation, one that merits this match be booked one more time in a few months.
The Official Result
Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato is Ruled a No Contest (Illegal Upkick) R1 4:59
Angelo picks Bellato because Paul Craig is not very good and has no evolution in his game. He notes that Bellato should win by keeping his elbows in on the ground and bombing away on the feet. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but Bellato should avoid getting submitted.
Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato by second-round knockout. He notes that Paul Craig is near retirement and has struggled at middleweight. He warns that Craig is dangerous on the ground but believes Bellato can keep the fight standing and knock him out, as long as he treats the ground like lava.
Connor sees Bellato as a steady, consistent puncher who doesn't break down easily. He expects Bellato to slowly steamroll Paul Craig, who is older and has not improved. Connor predicts a second-round TKO, noting Bellato's ability to maintain pressure and recover from damage.
Bellato will keep the fight upright and use his striking to damage Craig, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds. He is not expected to attempt a submission.
The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, despite being a former Paul Craig supporter. He doubts Craig's chin and offensive intent, noting Craig struggled against Bo Nickal. He highlights Bellato's training with Luke Rockhold for grappling and expects a first-round TKO, as Bellato should be safe on the feet if he doesn't shoot into Craig's guard.
Zane agrees with Connor that Bellato is the clear favorite. He notes that Bellato is a capable round-to-round puncher who doesn't wear out easily, and that Paul Craig has not improved despite changing weight classes. Zane thinks Bellato's steady pressure will be too much for Craig.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 40 of 52 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 16 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Bellato | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Angelo picks Rodolfo Bellato by knockout, stating that Paul Craig's wrestling is too poor to get the fight to the ground where he is dangerous, and his chin is too weak to stay in the pocket. He notes that Bellato is a heavy-handed grappler who will come forward and bomb away. Angelo also mentions that Bellato is incredibly handsome, adding a humorous note.
Big Brady picks Rodolfo Bellato, noting he is a black belt and the better striker with good power. He acknowledges Paul Craig's comeback ability but thinks Bellato's takedown defense and striking advantage lead to a second-round knockout.
The host is surprised Bellato is such a big favorite, noting he is not super technical and Craig could pull off a submission. However, he leans with Bellato due to better hardware, good durability, and great cardio, expecting him to outdamage Craig and find a finish in the second or third round. He would not pay minus 500 on a fighter like this.
The Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, calling him strong and durable with nice hands. He notes Bellato has been working with Luke Rockhold on grappling. He criticizes Paul Craig's game as limited (bad double leg, body kick, imanari roll) and thinks Craig has had his day. He predicts Bellato by TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 54 of 85 | 63% | 54 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 47 of 129 | 36% | 48 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 22 of 26 | 84% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 21 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 54 of 85 | 63% | 24 of 50 | 13 of 16 | 17 of 19 | 54 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 47 of 129 | 36% | 21 of 93 | 14 of 23 | 12 of 13 | 47 of 129 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 13 of 35 | 37% | 4 of 24 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 22 of 26 | 84% | 10 of 13 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 21 of 48 | 43% | 11 of 33 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 16 of 28 | 57% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 13 of 46 | 28% | 6 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1100), Craig (+700)
Round 1
A pair of middleweights with 100% finish rates throw down in a clash that could find the winner with a number next to their name come Tuesday. Nickal (6-0, 3-0 UFC) has not encountered much opposition in the cage thus far as a pro, while Craig (17-8-1, 9-8-1 UFC) cannot say the same. Referee Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the Octagon for this one. There is no touch of gloves. Nickal starts out the initial aggressor, faking takedowns and tossing out a front kick. Nickal comes up short on a reaching left hand, and he changes stances to find another look. Craig absorbs a heavy calf kick, and he keeps his guard up to block a huge swinging left hand. Nickal chops at the front leg two more times as Craig walks him down, and Craig lets loose a body kick. Nickal absorbs a knee on the chin and a left hand, and a hard Craig leg kick makes Nickal take a funny step. Both men unload with power punches at the same time and glance off one another, and Nickal chambers and fires a huge right hand that misses. Craig checks a kick and fires off one that ricochets off the raised guard, and he has a second also blocked. Craig raises his leg as a body shield, and Nickal is unable to get his hands on him. Nickal reaches out with a side kick and a left hand, and Craig kicks him twice in response. Nickal wings another left hand, reaching out far and landing with a glancing blow. Craig checks a kick and slides back to not let Nickal get to him. Craig spins with a fake kick, and he slides back as Nickal aims a body shot. Craig pump-fakes several kicks until letting one loose, and Nickal doubles up on the left hook. Craig jabs his way in, and he starts talking to the unbeaten fighter. Nickal has one kick checked, and the second is not. Craig throws a kick that grazes the shoulder, and he rolls with a right hand that buzzes his hair. Nickal absorbs a right hand on the chin, which holds up well as he backpedals. Craig gets drilled with a left hook, and Nickal pitches another fastball that gives Craig brief pause. Craig again brings up a knee to intercept Nickal, and he chops at the front leg of his foe. Craig kicks his foe in the gloves, and the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Round 2
Between rounds, Craig tells his corner how much fun he is having in the cage, grinning from ear to ear. The two start off the round again, with Craig jabbing his way forward into a head kick that comes up short. Craig kicks with his other leg, and he almost falls over but manages to keep his balance. Nickal has a huge right hand come over the top, and he has a kick caught. Craig chatters to his adversary, and Nickal does not change his expression. Nickal scores at the end of a left hand, and Craig responds with a right hand and keeps on talking. Craig swats away Nickal’s outstretched hand, whipping a kick to the guard. Nickal aims a body shot and goes over the top with a left hand, and Craig’s eyes open up a bit wider. Craig blocks a body kick with his knee, and Nickal jabs him in the chest and blasts him with an overhand right. Craig swarms forward with two punches and a high front kick, and he flicks out a jab. Nickal scores a body shot, and he cannot quite block the body kick that comes back his direction. Craig just misses with an uppercut as Nickal ducks down, and he takes a left hand on the chin. Craig lets fly two kicks and eats a body shot on the way back, with Nickal swinging hard with his left hand. The Scot checks a kick and talks to his opponent, and after they shadowbox, he lets fly one more body kick. Nickal winds up with a left hand and thumps his man in the chin, and Craig’s responsive elbow misses by a tiny margin. Craig sticks out a left and then a right, and he launches a body kick that hammers into the wrestler’s arms. Nickal splits the guard with a left and is disciplined enough to block the body kick he knows his coming at him, and he shells up to defend against a second. Nickal steps in with a right hand and catches Craig with a second, and the two both smack one another before the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Round 3
The fighters meet in the middle to start the final frame, and Craig is the one marching forward first. After about 20 seconds, Craig tosses a half-hearted low kick, and Nickal counters him with a heavy right hand over the guard. Craig uses a side kick to push off, and he blocks a body kick. Nickal considers a takedown but abandons it, and he steps back as Craig’s leg whizzes past him. Nickal stands still and lets Craig walk around him, and he laughs and claps hands with his confused foe. Craig kicks the front leg twice, and he aims his shin at the chest after Nickal changes stances. Craig rifles a right hand down the pipe, and Nickal kicks him in the lead leg to respond. Nickal fakes a level change, and the audience showers the fighters with boos for their sparring match. Craig lets loose a high kick, and Nickal thanks him by clapping him on the side of the head with a right hook. Nickal skirts away, blocking a head kick and clipping Craig with a huge left hand. Craig grabs his eye, which starts swelling immediately and he backs up to the cage wall. Nickal corners him but picks his shots very carefully, and he does not engage with more than a right hook. Nickal springs away from a high kick and wings a left hand on the damaged eye, further hurting the Scot. Nickal kicks the front leg and dances away from danger, zipping in and out without much concern of reprisal. Craig jabs a few times, whiffs on a head kick and a front kick. Nickal rips a left to the body, and Craig starts pointing at him as the fans chant “overrated” at Nickal. Craig checks a kick, and Nickal draws his foot back uncomfortably. With seconds to spare, the Penn State wrestler sells out with haymakers, dinging Craig again and eating one in response. The disappointment of a fight comes to an end, and Nickal mimes swinging a golf club and goes over to talk to President-elect Donald Trump, who has been in the building since the end of the prelims.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (30-27 Nickal)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Paul Craig via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Bo Nickal, calling it a clear win. He notes Nickal's elite wrestling and that Paul Craig is dangerous on the ground but Nickal can grapple with anyone. He speculates Nickal might test his striking since Craig is not dangerous on the feet. He is unsure about betting due to uncertainty over method of victory.
Big Brady picks Bo Nickal by first-round knockout, agreeing with Paul Craig that Nickal should keep the fight standing. He notes that Craig is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, while Nickal has quick hands and power. He believes Nickal will follow Kyle Daukaus' blueprint and knock out Craig early. He also likes the under on 1.5 takedowns for Nickal on PrizePicks.
Cody picks Bo Nickal by submission, citing Nickal's elite wrestling and positional dominance. He notes Paul Craig is a one-trick pony with a suspect chin and weak wrestling, and that Nickal can take the fight wherever he wants. Cody expects Nickal to submit Craig, possibly with a rear-naked choke.
Connor also picks Nickal but is hesitant, acknowledging that Craig's submission game is dangerous. He thinks Nickal's wrestling and athleticism will allow him to scramble and wear Craig out, but Craig could catch him in a submission if Nickal gets too aggressive. Connor is interested in the fight as a test for Nickal.
Vreeland picks Craig as a big underdog because he sees value in Craig's submission threat. He notes Craig subbed Magomed Ankalaev and that Bo Nickal is still inexperienced in Jiu-Jitsu. Vreeland thinks Craig can catch a guillotine on one of Nickal's takedowns or take his back. He also points out that Nickal took over 8 minutes to finish Cody Brundage, suggesting he is not invincible.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, acknowledging Paul Craig's impressive submission wins but believing Nickal's wrestling credentials and grappling ability will neutralize Craig's game. He thinks Nickal can keep the fight standing or on the ground and avoid Craig's submissions. He calls it a 'boring' pick but sees Nickal as the clear favorite.
Fox picks Nickal, citing his athleticism, youth, and wrestling as a cheat code. He believes Craig has no chance against a wrestler of Nickal's caliber. Fox acknowledges the line is steep but is confident Nickal will win.
Lucrative James confidently picks Bo Nickal, the massive -1000 favorite. He believes Nickal's wrestling can dictate where the fight goes, and even if he shoots takedowns into Craig's guard, he can dominate from top position. He thinks Nickal is smart enough to keep it standing and knock Craig out, or slam him and finish on the ground. He notes Craig's dangerous submissions but feels Nickal will stay safe and win inside the distance, likely in round one.
The host expects Nickal to utilize his striking more effectively, looking for a knockout rather than going into Craig's dangerous guard. However, he notes the plus 200 submission prop on Nickal is worth considering. He officially picks Nickal by knockout.
Paul picks Bo Nickal by knockout, arguing Craig is chinny and has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. He expects Nickal to take Craig down, soften him with ground and pound, and eventually knock him out as Craig tires. Paul likes the under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal, expecting a first-round KO. He acknowledges Paul Craig's submission threat but believes Nickal's wrestling and striking will overwhelm Craig. He notes Nickal's early finishes and thinks Craig's limited striking will be exposed.
Zane picks Nickal but is not confident, noting that Nickal is raw and was coached through basic grappling in his last fight. He thinks Nickal's athleticism and scrambling ability will wear out Craig, but Craig's submission threat is real. Zane finds the fight interesting because it's a genuine test for Nickal.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 36 of 50 | 72% | 43 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 31 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 27 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 22 of 48 | 45% | 4 of 19 | 12 of 23 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 36 of 50 | 72% | 29 of 41 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 15 of 29 | 51% | 3 of 9 | 8 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 20 of 30 | 66% | 14 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 10 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Borralho, calling Paul Craig overrated and noting he can be finished. He expects Borralho to dominate and possibly finish Craig. He suggests waiting for prop bets.
Big Brady sees Borralho as the much better striker and believes he will knock out Craig. He notes Craig's poor chin and recent damage taken. He predicts Borralho will take his time and finish Craig in the second round.
Cody picks Borralho, citing his superior wrestling, cardio, and durability. He notes Craig relies on submission magic but is poor defensively and has been neutralized by good grapplers. Cody expects Borralho to control the fight and win by decision or TKO.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Caio Borralho. He emphasizes that Borralho is a great striker, noting his Contender Series wins over Aaron Jeffery and Jesse Murray were striking performances. Vreeland thinks people forget Borralho's striking because he is Brazilian and assumed to be a jiu-jitsu specialist. He believes Borralho can finish Paul Craig on the feet or on the ground, as Craig is a BJJ specialist but Borralho has the skills to avoid submissions and wear him down. Vreeland also mentions Craig's cardio concerns at middleweight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Borralho by decision, citing his superior jiu-jitsu (Damaian Maya black belt) and well-rounded game. He notes that Craig's only path is submission, but Borralho's grappling defense should neutralize that. He highlights Borralho's decision-heavy record and suggests the decision prop at +200 as a better value than the -600 moneyline.
Jeff Fox picks Caio Borralho despite the steep -550 line. He notes that Borralho has the striking ability to keep the fight standing and potentially knock out Paul Craig, as Borralho stated in an interview. Fox also believes Borralho can replicate what Brendan Allen did on the ground, as he has the pressure and submission defense to avoid Craig's submissions early and wear him down. He questions Craig's cardio at middleweight, noting he appeared to quit in the Allen fight. Fox also highlights Borralho's underrated striking, pointing to his Contender Series performances where he beat Aaron Jeffery on the feet and knocked out Jesse Murray.
Borralho is superior everywhere and is one of the hottest Brazilian prospects. He will use grappling defensively early, chip away at Craig, and possibly find a knockout. If Craig slows down, Borralho will take him down and smash from top position. Borralho finishes within two or three rounds.
Paul picks Borralho, emphasizing his superior grappling, wrestling, and durability. He believes Craig's only path is a submission, but Borralho's BJJ black belt and top control will neutralize that. Paul expects Borralho to stuff takedowns and ground-and-pound.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho, predicting a first-round knockout via a stiff jab. He believes Borralho is a well-rounded, big middleweight with enough takedown defense to keep the fight standing, where Craig is less dangerous. He notes Borralho's recent wins over Abus Magomedov and Maxime Gremont, and expects him to chin Craig early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 32 of 43 | 74% | 52 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 7:58 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 20 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 28 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 32 of 43 | 74% | 26 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 24 |
| Paul Craig | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 14 of 19 | 73% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Paul Craig | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brendan Allen | 14 of 19 | 73% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 16 |
| Paul Craig | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brendan Allen | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Allen (-410), Craig (+320)
Round 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. Five rounds or less will decide a much-needed contender in the wide-open middleweight division. Two exceptionally talented and dangerous grapplers will ply their trade against one another, and referee Mark Smith will almost certainly get involved before it is said and done. Allen (22-5, 10-2 UFC) is aiming to add to his five-fight win streak, while Craig (17-6-1, 9-6-1 UFC) introduced himself to his lighter weight category by wrecking Andre Muniz in July. Before they inflict all sorts of violence on one another, they come together and stare down, but Craig does not want to touch gloves. They begin, and Craig leads with a low kick. Allen comes back with two punches, and he lands his own leg kick. Allen swings with everything he has, and he nearly topples over when missing. The two trade jabs, and Allen digs one to the breadbasket. They crash together, and Craig looks for a possible level change only to be met with a knee. Craig presses his man to the wall, and he drops down for a possible takedown. Allen stands him up before anything comes of it, but Craig is pressing him tightly against the wire. Allen knees the body and throws Craig over his hips, where he lands in full mount. Craig turns to his side, and Allen hammers him with a few punches and an elbow. Allen gets pulled back to half guard, and he is warned for hooking his toes in the fence. Allen hunts for an arm-triangle choke with pure chest and shoulder pressure, and Craig pushes both of his hands on Allen’s face to stop it. Allen isolates an arm and sneaks around to get the rear-naked choke, but Craig defends brilliantly with a calf slicer. Allen wrenches his leg out and turns around, and he attacks Craig’s ankle to keep him honest. Craig stands back up, and Allen slams him right back down to the mat. Allen smashes down with an elbow, and he cuts Craig’s eyebrow. The horn sounds, and Allen mocks him as they stand up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 2
The middleweights meander towards one another to start off Round 2, and Allen sits down on a one-two that rocks Craig. Craig weebles and wobbles but does not fall down, and manages to catch Allen with his own right hook on the way. Craig shoots to save his chin, and Allen bowls him over and drives down an elbow. Allen frustrates his opponent with top control and sporadic elbows, and blood flows out of the corner of Craig’s eye. Allen looks for an arm-triangle choke and he steps into full mount, and Craig is in trouble but rolls to his side to break it up. “Bearjew” lands a few heel strikes to the thigh, and Allen answers him with elbows and a few smacking fists. Allen rails Craig with another elbow, and the cut on Craig’s eyebrow splits further. Craig maintains butterfly hooks, and Allen makes his life terrible with elbow after unanswered elbow. Craig throws his legs up to threaten with something, anything he can find, and Allen shucks them to the side and elbows Craig in the busted eye. Allen stacks his man up and gets illegally upkicked, and Smith warns Craig of the fouls. Allen hunts for another arm-triangle choke, and Craig is wise to it and defends before it comes together. Allen sneaks a guillotine under the chin when Craig sits up, and Craig keeps his back against the fence to stop his foe from getting the right leverage. Allen takes Craig’s back with seconds to go, and he looks for another rear-naked choke to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 3
The middleweights reach Round 3, and Allen starts off with his striking. Allen rips a left to the body and rings Craig’s bell with a left up top, and he jumps over Craig and snatches up a guillotine choke. Craig turns well enough to stop the choke from getting locked down, but he turns the wrong way.
Allen sees the opening and snatches it up in an instant, piggybacking Craig and wrapping up a rear-naked choke with practically zero setup. The RNC aficionado—Allen has won his last three fights with this submission—secures it under the chin and it is now a matter of time. The Scot thinks about going out on his shield, but he taps one time on the forearm to signal that he has been defeated.
Smith is right on top of the action and pulls them apart, and Allen confidently nods and calls for a big fight. On his post-fight interview, Allen asks for any top contender, no matter who they put in front of him, and he celebrates with his daughter in his arms. Allen asks her who won, and all smiles, she replies “Da da!” The UFC will be on break for a week, and fight fans in the U.S. will take the time off and celebrate Thanksgiving. When the UFC is back in December, we will be there, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Paul Craig R3 0:38 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo is very confident in Brendan Allen, citing his five-fight win streak and well-rounded game. He notes Allen has better striking and wrestling than Paul Craig, and is putting everything together at the right time. He has bets on Allen and expects him to win.
Big Brady thinks the odds are silly because Paul Craig is always a live dog with his guard-pulling submissions. He questions Allen's fight IQ, expecting him to grapple despite the smarter path being striking. He picks Allen to win by submission, possibly a club and sub, but notes Craig is dangerous and can never be counted out. He says Allen has more ways to win but the fight could get tricky.
Cody picks Brendan Allen confidently, citing his significant advantages on the feet and well-rounded grappling. He notes that Paul Craig's only path is a submission via pulling guard, but Allen's top control and BJJ training make that unlikely. Cody mentions the line is wide but expects Allen to smash Craig, possibly by TKO. He acknowledges Craig's opportunistic submission game but sees Allen as too well-rounded.
Allen is the far superior striker with improved striking defense and a dangerous submission game. Craig has sketchy striking and relies on Jiu-Jitsu, but Allen can keep the fight standing and pick him apart. Allen will eventually find a TKO after posturing up with ground and pound, likely in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Cody, fading Paul Craig as usual. He acknowledges Craig's magic touch and opportunistic submissions but notes that Craig's wins come against opponents with glaring weaknesses. Brendan Allen is young, well-rounded, and trains at a top gym. Paul highlights Allen's submission win over Andre Muniz and his ability to wrestle, grapple, and strike. He sees Craig's suspect gas tank as a liability in a five-round fight and expects Allen to win, likely by TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen to win by TKO at the end of round one after grappling exchanges. He believes Allen is a better jiu-jitsu player than Andre Muniz and has better takedown defense. He praises Allen's striking, including kicks and boxing, and notes his finishes over Bruno Silva and Krzysztof Jotko. He criticizes Paul Craig's standup and chin, and thinks Allen will land on him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 0 | 40 of 82 | 48% | 54 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:56 |
| André Muniz | 0 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 31 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Muniz | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 15 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 2 | Paul Craig | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 44 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:56 |
| André Muniz | 0 | 11 of 17 | 64% | 16 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Craig | 40 of 82 | 48% | 31 of 66 | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 50 |
| André Muniz | 24 of 40 | 60% | 15 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Craig | 9 of 25 | 36% | 1 of 10 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| André Muniz | 13 of 23 | 56% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paul Craig | 31 of 57 | 54% | 30 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 50 |
| André Muniz | 11 of 17 | 64% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 |
Angelo is split between gut and brain. His gut leans toward Paul Craig's toughness and power, but his brain says Muniz has better wrestling and control. He notes Muniz looked old in his last fight but still gives a slight lean to Muniz because he can control with wrestling. He disagrees with the 2-1 odds on Muniz.
Big Brady picks André Muniz to win by first-round submission. He notes Muniz is a much better grappler than Craig, who relies on triangles off his back. He thinks Muniz can take Craig down and submit him, or knock him out on the feet. He mentions Craig's move to middleweight may affect his chin. He is confident Muniz has multiple paths to victory.
Cody thinks Muniz is a terrible matchup for Craig, with superior BJJ and better striking. He questions Craig's weight cut to 185 and notes Craig's wins often come from being dominated then catching a submission. He expects Muniz to roll.
Daniel is uncertain about this fight but sides with Muniz due to his experience at middleweight and his high-level jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Paul Craig's dangerous guard and submission ability, noting Craig has submitted top light heavyweights. However, he is concerned about Craig dropping to 185 and thinks Muniz's grappling is a level above. He mentions that Muniz's last loss was due to fatigue, not skill, and that Craig's weight cut is a risk. He says he usually takes the dog when unsure but goes with the favorite here.
James picks Muniz to win by KO. He has a strong read on Muniz, having bet on him multiple times successfully. He believes Muniz is an elite jiu-jitsu player and that Craig won't be able to submit him. He thinks Muniz will crack Craig's chin, as Craig has a bad chin and Muniz hits hard. James notes that Muniz is dropping down in weight, which often doesn't go well, but he still expects a KO. He mentions that Muniz by KO is +350 on BetOnline and he hopes to find better odds elsewhere.
The host picks André Muniz, believing his BJJ black belt will keep him safe on the ground and that he is the better striker. He notes Craig's danger off his back but thinks Muniz can grind him out from top position. He predicts a decision win for Muniz.
Paul agrees, citing Muniz's superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Craig's striking volume is very low and his wrestling is poor. He thinks Muniz will take Craig down and control him, though he doesn't love it as a lock.
The MMA Guru picks André Muniz, arguing that Paul Craig's wins come from opponents taking him down, and Craig has poor stand-up. He believes Muniz will stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, where he has a striking advantage. The Guru recalls Muniz wobbling Uriah Hall and predicts a KO win. He also notes Craig's chinny nature and lack of submission threats from top position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 1 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Walker | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johnny Walker | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 16 of 20 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Johnny Walker to knock out Paul Craig in the first round. He notes Walker is much bigger, more explosive, and has huge power on the feet. Craig's striking is not good and he will likely pull guard, but Walker should disengage and keep it standing. If Walker goes to the mat, Craig is dangerous with submissions, but Walker can also finish with ground and pound. He trusts Walker to get the knockout but warns of sweating if it hits the mat.
Cody picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ under John Kavanagh. He says Walker can dictate range, use footwork, and potshot Paul Craig. He acknowledges Craig's dangerous BJJ but thinks Walker will keep the fight standing and avoid the ground. He mentions Walker's power and ability to knock out Craig. He also notes Craig's poor striking and takedown defense.
Connor picks Paul Craig, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Walker's new passive style is worse than his old reckless one, and that Craig will pressure and likely land clean shots. Connor also mentions that Walker has never been submitted but that Craig is a submission specialist who could catch him.
Paul picks Johnny Walker confidently, noting Walker's striking advantage and improved fight IQ. He says Walker can keep the fight standing and avoid Craig's BJJ. He mentions Craig's poor striking and takedown defense, and says Walker has the power to knock him out. He acknowledges Craig's submission wins over top guys but thinks Walker will fight smart and avoid the ground.
The Guru is confident Walker will KO Craig. He highlights Walker's underrated grappling, noting he reversed Krylov and has improved rapidly. Craig has no striking threat, so Walker will be confident on the feet. The Guru predicts Walker will rock Craig, force a bad takedown, and finish with ground and pound, similar to the Ryan Spann fight.
Zane picks Paul Craig, citing that Craig has a reliable bag of tricks and will be aggressive, while Johnny Walker has regressed under SPG coaching, becoming passive and lacking a functional style. Zane notes that grappling is light heavyweight secret sauce, and Craig is a submission artist who can exploit Walker's poor grappling.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas confidently, citing his versatile striking, takedown defense, and power. He believes Bukauskas will chop down Craig's legs and avoid his submission threats. He notes Craig's poor takedown entries and mediocre striking. He was swayed by Bukauskas' hype video showing his comeback.
Big Brady picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's recent point-fighting style. He believes Bukauskas can outstrike Craig from the outside and avoid his guard. He expects a boring decision win for Bukauskas, as Craig no longer wrestles or pulls guard effectively.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bukauskas. He notes that Paul Craig is vulnerable everywhere—standing, on his back, and even on top—and that Bukauskas is a solid fighter who can win without engaging on the ground. He emphasizes that Craig's fragility makes him likely to get hurt in exchanges.
The host believes Bukauskas can utilize his striking advantage to keep Craig at bay, touch him up from distance, and avoid overextending to prevent takedowns. He expects Bukauskas to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas, criticizing Paul Craig's lack of improvement in standup over a decade. He believes Bukauskas' pressure and straight rights will catch Craig early. He predicts a first-round TKO, noting Bukauskas' ability to cut off the cage and land devastating shots.
Zane picks Bukauskas easily, noting that Paul Craig's striking is a mess and his takedown accuracy is poor. He believes Bukauskas can keep the fight standing and hurt Craig, or take him down and control him without getting submitted. He calls the fight unnecessary but sees Bukauskas as a solid functional fighter who should win.
Comments (2)
Pual retired. Equal on the feet, pulled traingle near the fence. Got elbow ko on the buzzard rd1
18.0 ko for Paul is crazy
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