UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025 · Catchweight (191 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Kelvin Gastelum
3.67 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.53 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dustin Stoltzfus
3.3 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.23 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
2.08 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Kelvin Gastelum
Moneyline
BetOnline -250
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +221
Submission
Cloudbet +2304
Decision
Cloudbet +145
Dustin Stoltzfus
Moneyline
Cloudbet +219
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +1791
Submission
Cloudbet +1122
Decision
Cloudbet +357
Kelvin Gastelum - Fight History
LOSS vs Vicente Luque
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Vicente Luque 1 12 of 28 42% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 9 of 20 45% 4 of 14 4 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 1
Vicente Luque 12 of 28 42% 6 of 19 1 of 1 5 of 8 8 of 21 0 of 0 4 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.

"I have to pick Kelvin here. If you refuse to bet on him, I get it. No pressure. He should win, and honestly, I think these odds are actually pretty appropriate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.

second round knockout
"My hot take of the week is Kelvin Gastelum gets his first knockout since 2017 against Vicente Luque... I think he knocks out Vicente Luque in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.

"I think Gaston wins it... either he's going to get knocked out and separated from consciousness or just be one punch behind the punch stats every round and end up losing a tight decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.

"We got to pick Gasolim."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.

"I got Kelvin as well. One last thing here is this fight's at 185 and not 170. So, Luque I think that benefits Kelvin significantly here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.

"I'm going to pick Kelvin Gastlam to come out here and knock out Vasante Luca."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.

"I've got Kelvin Gasselum here quite confidently. Honestly, I think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.

Gastelum wins by knockout
"I think we'll see Gastam eventually land those big shots. ... I think he wins by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.

"I still trust Kelvin Gastelum. It's like if they get into a firefight to be able to take that punch... Kelvin's one of the guys that are uh in my parlay arsenal this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going to go with Kelvin over Vicente Luque."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum, agreeing that Luque at middleweight doesn't track. He notes that Gastelum's game is a middleweight game and that Luque has lost speed and reaction time. He expects Gastelum to win by being the more natural middleweight and having the power advantage in the pocket.

"I'm not going to pick Vicente Luque up at middle weight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 1 57 of 117 48% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 64 of 146 43% 69 of 151 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 24 of 49 48% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Kelvin Gastelum 1 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:13
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 57 of 117 48% 30 of 81 16 of 24 11 of 12 56 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 64 of 146 43% 25 of 93 25 of 34 14 of 19 55 of 134 4 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 25 56% 4 of 14 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 24 of 49 48% 3 of 23 13 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 23 of 43 53% 14 of 30 6 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 52 38% 10 of 35 8 of 12 2 of 5 20 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 33 of 99 33% 34 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 2 57 of 114 50% 58 of 115 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 8 of 20 40% 8 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 2 21 of 39 53% 22 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 11 of 50 22% 11 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 0 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 29 48% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Joe Pyfer 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 33 of 99 33% 13 of 69 11 of 17 9 of 13 32 of 98 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 57 of 114 50% 44 of 99 12 of 14 1 of 1 51 of 104 3 of 3 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 8 of 20 40% 3 of 14 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 21 of 39 53% 16 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 7
2 Kelvin Gastelum 11 of 50 22% 2 of 34 6 of 10 3 of 6 11 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 17 of 40 42% 12 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 1 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 29 48% 8 of 21 3 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 19 of 35 54% 16 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 17 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer because Kelvin Gastelum is unreliable with poor work ethic and weight issues. He notes Kelvin has a granite chin and power, but Joe is a powerful striker with slick BJJ. He warns Joe not to get frustrated if the knockout doesn't come quickly. He thinks the 4-to-1 odds are fair but not a cakewalk.

"Joe Piper should win this fight. As long as Joe is not expecting a quick knockout and then getting frustrated when he doesn't get it, Joe should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady likes Joe Pyfer more now that the fight is at sea level instead of Mexico City. He believes Pyfer can win by any method: knockout, submission, or decision. He notes Pyfer's size, power, and black belt in jiu-jitsu, and that Gastelum has been submitted before. He thinks a decision is most likely due to Gastelum's durability, but sees Pyfer as the better fighter overall.

Pyfer by decision most likely
"I like Piper here quite a bit. Kelvin Gastlam is going to be very undersized."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pyfer. He emphasizes that Gastelum's best wins are against smaller or older opponents, and Pyfer's size and power pose a serious threat. Connor notes that Gastelum's defensive flaws and reliance on his chin make him vulnerable, especially at middleweight where he is not as big.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Connor thinks the line is reasonable.
"I think in that context, you really have to pick Pfeiffer here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum can deal with Pyfer's power and then get to his own striking game, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots, possibly mixing in takedowns. His durability, cardio, and strength of schedule will allow him to get the victory over the younger Pyfer.

"I like me some Gastam in this spot as I think he can deal with the big power that Piper brings to the table and then from there he can get to his own striking game where he does a …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer by submission in the first round. He notes Pyfer's muscle advantage and underrated grappling, citing his training with Sean Brady and his submission wins. He believes Pyfer will land big shots early, then take Gastelum down and submit him with an arm triangle. He mentions Gastelum's granite chin but thinks Pyfer can finish him.

Finish prediction: first round submission (arm triangle). Also mentioned in PrizePicks: Pyfer lands under 49.5 significant strikes.
"I'm going to take Joe Pyer by submission in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Gastelum is inconsistent and relies on his chin, which may be fading. He points out that Pyfer is bigger, hits harder, and has a cleaner striking game. Zane references the Hermanson fight where Pyfer won the first two rounds before fading, and believes in a three-round fight Pyfer's early power will carry him.

Odds: Pyfer -383, Gastelum +324. Zane thinks the line is too wide but still picks Pyfer.
"I'm going to take the bigger, harder, cleaner puncture."
CANCEL vs Joe Pyfer
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Kelvin Gastelum as a significant underdog, arguing that Joe Pyfer has not proven himself against top competition and that his wins are over faded or lower-level fighters. He notes Gastelum has fought much better opposition, has better cardio, and has been training at elevation in Mexico for a month, including in the mountains. James believes Pyfer's gas tank is suspect and that Gastelum can survive early danger and win in later rounds. He sees value at plus 260 odds.

Value on Gastelum at plus 260. Mentions Pyfer's size and early power but questions his cardio and level of competition.
"I think there's value on Kelvin gum here because it's still a show me spot for Joe Piper he has to show me that he's worthy of a minus 320 price tag."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 112 of 238 47% 123 of 250 4 of 4 100% 0 0 2:47
Daniel Rodriguez 0 127 of 265 47% 132 of 273 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 44 of 93 47% 45 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Daniel Rodriguez 0 46 of 91 50% 46 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 86 43% 39 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:25
Daniel Rodriguez 0 53 of 113 46% 53 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 31 of 59 52% 39 of 68 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:17
Daniel Rodriguez 0 28 of 61 45% 33 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 112 of 238 47% 77 of 193 14 of 20 21 of 25 105 of 226 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 127 of 265 47% 82 of 214 36 of 41 9 of 10 127 of 265 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 44 of 93 47% 27 of 70 6 of 10 11 of 13 44 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 46 of 91 50% 25 of 67 15 of 17 6 of 7 46 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 86 43% 27 of 72 4 of 6 6 of 8 37 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Rodriguez 53 of 113 46% 38 of 97 13 of 14 2 of 2 53 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kelvin Gastelum 31 of 59 52% 23 of 51 4 of 4 4 of 4 24 of 47 0 of 0 7 of 12
Daniel Rodriguez 28 of 61 45% 19 of 50 8 of 10 1 of 1 28 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.

No bet; odds too high for an unreliable fighter
"Kelvin gastam is a giant waste of talent but Talent is the key word he is very good... I'm still going to lean Kelvin I'm going to trust him but I'm not spending you can't spend money on this guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.

"give me Kelvin gastam by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.

"gum is going to win he is going to likely win a decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.

"I'm gonna go with the plus 200 dog here I'm gonna go with D Rod to to win a probably a decision against uh Kelvin Gaston"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.

Might bet Rodriguez as a dog
"minus 250 minus 260 for a guy like Kelvin gastam at this point it's like what are we doing... I believe El Kelvin should be the favorite I would price it likeus 125 minus 130 something like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Rodriguez

JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.

Fight goes to decision
"I think I'm going to go with Rodriguez by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.

"Gastelum will be the pick but I hope he wrestles"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.

by decision, maybe a rear naked choke
"I'm going to go Kelvin Gastelum here is he an underdog I wonder if he's an underdog here he might be I'd like it if he was he's a [__] favorite [__] off why is he a big favorite man."
LOSS vs Sean Brady
Submission (kimura) R3 1:43 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Brady 0 14 of 24 58% 97 of 130 5 of 5 100% 3 0 9:06
Kelvin Gastelum 0 18 of 32 56% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Brady 0 5 of 10 50% 38 of 53 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:22
Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
2 Sean Brady 0 8 of 11 72% 51 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:31
Kelvin Gastelum 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean Brady 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 3 0 1:13
Kelvin Gastelum 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Brady 14 of 24 58% 8 of 16 1 of 2 5 of 6 7 of 15 1 of 1 6 of 8
Kelvin Gastelum 18 of 32 56% 7 of 19 7 of 8 4 of 5 13 of 23 4 of 5 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Brady 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 21 61% 6 of 14 5 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 12 4 of 5 1 of 4
2 Sean Brady 8 of 11 72% 5 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7
Kelvin Gastelum 2 of 6 33% 0 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Sean Brady 1 of 3 33% 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-130), Gastelum (+110)

Round 1
Welterweights get the call, as Brady (15-1, 5-1 UFC) looks to rebound from his first career loss in a three-round showdown with Gastelum at 170 pounds. Gastelum (18-8, 12-8 UFC) has lost five of his past seven bouts and remains one of the most enigmatic fighters on the roster.
For more on the Kings MMA rep, see “5 Defining Moments: Kelvin Gastelum” in Features
. Montalvo draws the officiating assignment. Gastelum immediately moves to the center of the cage. Brady clinches, works punches and knees to the body and eats a short elbow. He pushes Gastelum to the fence and completes his first takedown. The Daniel Gracie disciple floats to the back, threads his hooks and goes to work on the next. Brady bites down with a body triangle just 90 seconds into the bout. Gastelum scrambles free, takes top position and feeds his opponent punches. Back on the feet, they return to the center of the Octagon. Gastelum sneaks in a right hand. Brady connects with two left hooks and then powers into top position, moving to the back. Gastelum inches toward the fence, but Brady is relentless. Gastelum gets back to his feet, only to get returned to the mat. Brady works his ground-and-pound from behind, then moves to the back in the waning seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 2
Gastelum steps forward in his southpaw stance, fires a few inside leg kicks and fails to manage distance properly. Brady ducks in for another takedown and sets up in half guard. Starting to look like an awful stylistic matchup for Gastelum. Brady climbs to full mount, then back to half guard. He mounts again. Gastelum surrenders his back to create a scramble but finds no escape. Brady shifts back to mount. Probably only a matter of time before Gastelum breaks. Brady hammers away with elbows, floats to the back and shows no regard for his counterpart’s ground game. Fans grow restless, but Brady is running circles around Gastelum here. Brady works from a kneeling mount, with a seated Gastelum underneath him. With 30 seconds left, this has turned into an absolute rout. Brady drags him back to the canvas as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady

Round 3
Brady works from the center of the cage. Gastelum sneaks in a straight left, but Brady closes the distance yet again and completes another takedown. Fans boo. Brady sets up in half guard, then floats to mount and frames an arm-triangle. Gastelum escapes.
Brady now isolates the right arm and threatens a kimura. He cranks on the shoulder and forces the tap. This one was never competitive
.

The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Kelvin Gastelum—Submission (Kimura) 1:43 R3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Big Brady picks Sean Brady to get back on track, believing his wrestling and control will be the difference. He thinks Brady can take down and control Gastelum for at least two rounds, winning a decision. He acknowledges Gastelum has the edge on the feet but thinks Brady can hold his own. He calls it a close fight and wouldn't bet on either side.

"I'm going to take Shawn Brady to get back on track here I think this is a good fight to do it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Brady

Cody picks Brady, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and wrestling. He notes Gastelum's poor takedown defense and offensive wrestling (0 for 11 in last two fights). He thinks Brady can take Gastelum down and control him on the ground. He also questions Gastelum's speed at welterweight and his ability to handle Brady's grappling.

"I think that Shawn Brady's one of the best uh pure Jiu-Jitsu guys in the division now can he tie the other skills together maybe maybe not but yeah I I think that if this fight hits the ground he's …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Lucrative James leans towards Kelvin Gastelum after rewatching tape. He notes that Sean Brady has shown poor striking defense and cardio issues in fights against Belal Muhammad and Michael Chiesa. Gastelum is a good boxer and could hurt Brady. However, he remains cautious about Gastelum's weight cut and how he will look at 170.

"I'm leaning more on the Kelvin gastam side as the the week goes along"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is moving back to welterweight, where he has looked best, and has shown improved conditioning and training at Fight Ready. He has slick boxing, power, and underrated grappling. Brady is a strong wrestler with a BJJ black belt, but he struggled against Belal Muhammad's range and volume. Gastelum's speed and power on the feet, plus his ability to scramble, should give him the edge. A decision win is predicted, with a potential late finish.

decision win predicted
"I like gastam here as the dog like I think that he is far more skilled all around than Brady"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul is willing to side with Gastelum at welterweight, citing his striking advantage and improved physique. He will wait for weigh-ins to ensure Gastelum makes weight and looks healthy. He thinks Gastelum has a massive striking advantage and that this is a good spot to jump back on the Gastelum train.

"I'm willing to side with Gastelum at 170 I'm going to wait until the weigh-ins to ensure that like you know that he makes it and doesn't look like Skeletor"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, criticizing Sean Brady's performance against Belal Muhammad where he shut down after being clipped. He believes Gastelum's boxing, durability, and finishing ability are superior on the feet. He predicts Gastelum wins by TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in second or third round
"I'm gonna go with Kelvin Gastelum over Shawn Brady... I think if this is on the feet I just like the boxing durability toughness and finishing ability of Kelvin Gastelum."
WIN vs Chris Curtis
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 70 of 201 34% 80 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 83 of 188 44% 88 of 195 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 65 30% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 56 41% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 88 42% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 70 of 201 34% 44 of 164 21 of 30 5 of 7 63 of 193 7 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 83 of 188 44% 63 of 161 5 of 8 15 of 19 76 of 172 3 of 6 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 48 27% 8 of 40 1 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 64 46% 20 of 51 0 of 0 10 of 13 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 65 30% 11 of 51 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 56 41% 20 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 3 19 of 44 0 of 2 4 of 10
3 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 11 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 83 5 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 68 44% 23 of 59 4 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

moneyline bet
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick I do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

"I like I like Curtis to win ... I'll take Chris Curtis to win by like a split uh decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Curtis by decision at +240; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"Chris Curtis by decision I'll tell you that much"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

"Yeah, same."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

"I'm locked and loaded on Chris Curtis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

"I think this is probably the most favorable matchup that Calvin gaslim has had during this entire slump maybe with the exception of the Ian heinish fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

Curtis by decision at +240; over 2.5 rounds at -220; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"sign me up for Action Man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

round three finish, body shot
"I'm gonna say Curtis finishes him in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

"I'm going to pick Chris Curtis because I think he's going to land the better shots."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 1 81 of 207 39% 91 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 89 of 246 36% 89 of 246 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Jared Cannonier 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 24 of 59 40% 24 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jared Cannonier 1 17 of 40 42% 17 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Kelvin Gastelum 0 15 of 54 27% 15 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
4 Jared Cannonier 0 15 of 45 33% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 16 of 41 39% 16 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
5 Jared Cannonier 0 13 of 34 38% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kelvin Gastelum 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 81 of 207 39% 51 of 162 20 of 31 10 of 14 79 of 205 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 89 of 246 36% 48 of 187 22 of 36 19 of 23 88 of 243 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 19 of 45 42% 11 of 26 5 of 13 3 of 6 19 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 22 of 57 38% 11 of 39 4 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 17 of 43 39% 10 of 35 2 of 3 5 of 5 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 24 of 59 40% 15 of 47 4 of 7 5 of 5 23 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 17 of 40 42% 12 of 33 5 of 6 0 of 1 16 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 15 of 54 27% 9 of 45 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Jared Cannonier 15 of 45 33% 9 of 38 6 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 16 of 41 39% 6 of 28 7 of 8 3 of 5 16 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jared Cannonier 13 of 34 38% 9 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 12 of 35 34% 7 of 28 2 of 2 3 of 5 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady picks Jared Cannonier, citing his reach advantage, power, and striking accuracy. He notes Cannonier is in his prime at 37, while Gastelum seems to be declining. He believes Cannonier's leg kicks and size will be key, and he predicts a third-round knockout, giving Gastelum his first KO loss.

third round knockout
"i'll take him here i think the six inches of reach is going to be huge"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody picks Gastelum as a dog, citing his cardio, five-round experience, and wrestling advantage. He notes Cannonier's low volume, hesitancy, and questionable cardio in longer fights, and points out Gastelum has never been knocked out. He suggests betting live after Gastelum loses early rounds.

Bet live after Gastelum loses first round or two; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"i think kelvin gaslin could hustle him up a plus 130 i'm going to take the dog shot here it's a dog or pass main event for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum is the better all-around fighter with five-round experience and cardio advantage. Cannonier has knockout power but has never been stopped, and his cardio is unproven in later rounds. I think Gastelum weathers the early storm and takes over in rounds 3-5, winning by decision or late finish.

Gastelum by decision (+225); live bet on Gastelum after round 1 or 2
"i'm gonna be taking calvin gaslum and i'm going to be taking gas limits uh via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Gastelum at plus money. He emphasizes Gastelum's durability (never knocked out) and Cannonier's potential gas tank issues in later rounds. He also mentions the possibility of betting Gastelum live if he loses early rounds.

Bet live if Gastelum loses early rounds; Gastelum has never been knocked out
"gun to my head i'm betting kelvin gastle in my plus 130"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier to win by TKO, focusing on leg kicks. He notes Cannonier's vicious leg kicks (as seen against Whittaker and Silva) and Gastelum's heavy lead leg and lack of leg support. He predicts Cannonier will chop down Gastelum's legs, then catch him with a straight right as Gastelum lunges. He also mentions Gastelum's quick turnaround and accumulated damage.

TKO via leg kicks and straight right
"i'm gonna go with jared cannon here by tko leg kicks i think will chop down kelvin gastelum"
Dustin Stoltzfus - Fight History
LOSS vs Kelvin Gastelum
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 1 57 of 117 48% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 64 of 146 43% 69 of 151 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 24 of 49 48% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Kelvin Gastelum 1 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:13
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 57 of 117 48% 30 of 81 16 of 24 11 of 12 56 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 64 of 146 43% 25 of 93 25 of 34 14 of 19 55 of 134 4 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 25 56% 4 of 14 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 24 of 49 48% 3 of 23 13 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 23 of 43 53% 14 of 30 6 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 52 38% 10 of 35 8 of 12 2 of 5 20 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 21 of 37 56% 41 of 62 2 of 5 40% 2 0 5:11
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 35 of 68 51% 53 of 94 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 5 of 13 38% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:14
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 13 of 27 48% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 2 of 3 66% 14 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 19 57% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 21 66% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:44
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 21 of 37 56% 5 of 19 4 of 6 12 of 12 19 of 34 1 of 2 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 35 of 68 51% 24 of 53 8 of 11 3 of 4 24 of 52 1 of 1 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 5 of 13 38% 2 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 13 of 27 48% 8 of 19 2 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 19 57% 9 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 14
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 21 66% 2 of 7 2 of 4 10 of 10 13 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev confidently, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Ruziboev's massive 6'5" frame, wrestling and grappling prowess, and a good chin. He notes that Ruziboev's only UFC loss was to Buckley at 170 lbs, which is credible. Angelo expects Ruziboev to be patient, eat a few shots, and then pour it on later. He finds the -280 odds affordable and suggests the over might be sneaky good if a round line is available.

Angelo suggests the over on a round line might be sneaky good because Ruziboev has an incredible chin.
"Nerzleton's the pick. The minus 280 odds seem pretty affordable."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Big Brady picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a plus-240 underdog, citing Ruziboev's poor takedown defense and lack of volume. He believes Stoltzfus can take Ruziboev down and control him, making Ruziboev's power useless. He expects a decision win if Stoltzfus fights smart.

Stoltzfus by decision
"I'm taking Stoultz here, believe it or not. ... I think he has all the tools to to win this fight. So I'll say Solstus wins this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

The host acknowledges Ruziboev's power and striking advantage but notes he has been grinded out by lesser grapplers. He believes Stoltzfus, with his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements from Extreme Couture, can get Ruziboev to the ground and grind him out from top position, either winning on the scorecards or finding a submission.

Stoltzfus by decision or submission
"As long as Stoultzfus has really minded his P's and Q's in this fight and really sharpened his game with the help of extreme couture, he should be you able to utilize his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a dirty fighter who moves well and has a ton of experience. He thinks Ruziboev is better at middleweight with more power. He notes Stoltzfus has been styled on by opponents like Bruno Ferreira and doesn't see a path to victory. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.

Ruziboev by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna have to go with Nultton Marusv TKO in the first or second round."
KO (punches) R1 4:28 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 7 of 11 63% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 1 13 of 20 65% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 7 of 11 63% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 1 13 of 20 65% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 7 of 10 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 7 of 10 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Angelo picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to weather an early storm from Dustin Stoltzfus and take over with volume. He notes Barriault has impressive striking volume (almost 6 sig strikes per minute) but is also hit a lot. He thinks Stoltzfus is dangerous early with power but has a questionable chin. He suggests betting the over if a 1.5 round line is available, as the fight could go long.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Mark Andre is going to be the pick I think he can weather an early storm Dustin is dangerous and Mark was just knocked out but I think Joe pyer hits at like a completely different velocity than most other …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by decision. He likes Barriault's cardio, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Stoltzfus's striking is not good and that Barriault will piece him up over 15 minutes. Brady expects Barriault to stuff takedowns and outwork Stoltzfus on the feet.

"give me bario bario to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Cody picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his pressure, power, and volume advantage over Stoltzfus. He notes that Stoltzfus relies on wrestling but has poor takedown success against strong grapplers, and Barriault's takedown defense is solid. He also mentions Stoltzfus's recent KO loss and potential psychological issues, and believes Barriault can finish him late or win a decision.

"I feel like bario should be one of them."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his durability and tendency to get better as the fight progresses. He questions Dustin Stoltzfus's confidence and ability to handle adversity, noting that Barriault will expose any weaknesses in cardio or chin. Vreeland acknowledges Stoltzfus's skills but believes Barriault's toughness and pressure will prevail, though the price (-205) makes it a pass for betting.

"I'mma pick Mark Andre bario"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Lucrative James picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to dominate with pace and pressure in the clinch. He believes Stoltzfus will be competitive in round one but fade, and that Barriault will get a third-round finish or decision. He highlights Barriault's body shots and uppercuts in the clinch.

round three or decision
"I'm taking mab to survive T some type of storm to have a competitive round one but start to dominate round two and round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Barriault is coming back too quickly after a knockout, but if his durability holds up, he should put pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finish him in the second or third round via TKO.

finish in second or third round via TKO
"I do believe if his durability hold up holds up here he should do a good enough job in terms of putting pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finishing him in the second or third round via TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Stoltzfus's recent facial fracture and nerve damage may affect his performance. He notes that Barriault's constant pressure and power should overwhelm Stoltzfus, and he sees a potential late stoppage. He also suggests live betting Barriault if he loses the first round.

"I think bario but I'm going to avoid like the split decision kind of angle... I do actually think it's possible that barrier gets him out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

The Guru picks Marc-André Barriault over Dustin Stoltzfus, believing Barriault's pace and activity will be decisive. He notes Stoltzfus lacks finishing ability and cardio, while Barriault keeps a high output. He expects a decision win for Barriault.

decision
"I'm G to go against Dustin stsus shock twist I know and go of Mark Andre barel I just see this making it into the decision area"
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
KO (spinning back elbow) R1 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his insane power against Dustin Stoltzfus's questionable chin. He notes that all of Ferreira's wins are finishes, and Stoltzfus has been knocked out before. He thinks it's a trap fight because it seems too easy, but he is falling into the trap. He predicts Ferreira wins inside the distance.

Brunno Ferreira wins inside the distance
"Bruno FAA inside the distance no less"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Ferreira's incredible one-punch power and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Stoltzfus is hitable with 48% striking defense and that Ferreira will follow up if he hurts him. He mentions a potential live bet on Stoltzfus if he survives the first round.

knockout round 1; live bet Stoltzfus if survives first round
"give me Bruno Ferrera to win this fight and win this fight by first round Nar knockout I think he Sparks Dustin stsf in the early going"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a greasy underdog, noting that Ferreira is a first-round knockout artist with questionable cardio and wild striking. Stoltzfus has decent cardio, wrestling, and BJJ, and has been competitive against tough opponents. Cody believes if Stoltzfus can survive the first round, he can take over with his grappling and pressure. He sees value in the plus money and expects Stoltzfus to win by decision or late submission.

"I would think that there's a lot of pass here for stus but largely he's going to have to get out of that first round Bruno we know he's a tank engine for the first round but almost all of …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel picks Stoltzfus as a live dog, believing Ferreira is too small for middleweight and that Stoltzfus can survive the early onslaught and take over after the seven-minute mark. He notes Ferreira's all-first-round finishes but criticizes his awkward movement and lack of in-between striking. He warns that Stoltzfus stands straight up and gets hit early, but if he can drag the fight out, his grappling and experience could pay off.

dog or pass
"I'm going to go Dustin Stoltzfus here now"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Jacob picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing with Angelo. He notes that Stoltzfus has a suspect chin and Ferreira has big power. However, he warns that if the fight gets out of the first round, Ferreira might fade. He has Ferreira in a parlay but is not betting him heavily. He plans to live bet Stoltzfus if the first round ends without a finish.

Brunno Ferreira in a parlay; live bet on Dustin Stoltzfus if fight goes past round 1
"I'm picking Bruno I think he is going to find that shot but if this gets out of the first round I don't care how the first round looked Saturday live stream if we're streaming you better believe I'm putting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Stoltzfus has a reach and height advantage, and his straight shots down the pipe should keep Ferreira at bay. Ferreira is a power puncher with a BJJ black belt, but Stoltzfus showed improved performance against Soriano. At +220, Stoltzfus is a good underdog pick to win by decision, possibly even a late finish.

"give me stfo and St Fus by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation. He acknowledges Ferreira's first-round knockout power but notes the lack of value on Ferreira by knockout props. He thinks Stoltzfus could win if he survives the early storm, but he's not confident enough to make a pick.

"it's a dogger pass type of situation as well Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru picks Ferreira to 'smoke' Stoltzfus, saying Stoltzfus isn't the same level of danger on the feet and will be more scared in the fight. He notes Ferreira has KO power and that Stoltzfus's wins aren't impressive (e.g., Dwight Grant, Punahele Soriano). He expects a KO win for Ferreira.

KO win prediction
"Bruno fa is going to smoke him... there will be one person in this fight who is a lot more [__] himself than the other one and it's going to be Dustin stus so I think that's going to lead …"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:10 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 31 of 73 42% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 64 of 123 52% 78 of 140 4 of 7 57% 1 0 2:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 41 of 79 51% 43 of 82 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:29
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 9 of 26 34% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 0 23 of 44 52% 35 of 58 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 31 of 73 42% 18 of 56 9 of 11 4 of 6 30 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 64 of 123 52% 24 of 79 23 of 27 17 of 17 60 of 116 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 22 of 47 46% 13 of 35 7 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 41 of 79 51% 15 of 51 17 of 19 9 of 9 37 of 72 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 9 of 26 34% 5 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 23 of 44 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 8 of 8 23 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say San catches them early if it does get extended it might get sketchy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335
"what's Puna round one is that a number that I might be interested in it's plus 200 standby for further confirmation that that could get that could get a little bit of money for me I mean what's him by …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.

inside the distance, likely knockout in round one
"I think he's going to get cracked by punah heli Sano Sano is a decent fighter man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.

round 1 prop, under 1.5 rounds recommended
"give me Sano minus 300 a little bit too much I'd probably hone in on that round one prop maybe the under one and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335 considered
"I think he wins the fight am I super confident no because I don't really like s all that much but I think he wins this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.

KO in second round or late first
"I'm going to go with Punahele Soriano... I reckon he'll get a KO in the second round or late in the first."
KO (front kick and punches) R1 0:19 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.

"i am gonna do a slight lean here for dustin this is a very low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.

"i'll say magametto by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.

"I'll think i'll take the dog shot dustin stolfest but again i mean it's hard to get really excited and confident about it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.

"I'm gonna pick a boost but I'm not as confident as you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.

Magomedov inside the distance (plus 120)
"Give me Abus inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm picking my uh abus magomedov in the spot... definitely not taking the shot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.

Magomedov wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to be going with abba sippy and magomedov it's a trustworthy pick"
WIN vs Dwight Grant
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 52 of 100 52% 54 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 49 of 112 43% 102 of 173 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 28 50% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 20 of 38 52% 31 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 15 of 37 40% 15 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 12 of 31 38% 54 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 52 of 100 52% 35 of 79 7 of 9 10 of 12 50 of 97 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 49 of 112 43% 23 of 81 7 of 8 19 of 23 35 of 88 3 of 4 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 23 of 35 65% 19 of 30 1 of 1 3 of 4 21 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 17 of 43 39% 7 of 30 2 of 3 8 of 10 15 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 28 50% 5 of 16 5 of 7 4 of 5 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 20 of 38 52% 12 of 29 4 of 4 4 of 5 10 of 21 1 of 1 9 of 16
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 15 of 37 40% 11 of 33 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 12 of 31 38% 4 of 22 1 of 1 7 of 8 10 of 27 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.

advises not to bet on this fight
"i think dwight grant is the overall better fighter so he's going to be my pick but dustin's live for a stoppage here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.

"i'm gonna take dwight grant um just stylistically it should be a winnable matchup for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.

"i'm so done with dwight grant there's no world that exists that i'm willing to pay minus 135"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.

underdog bet; possible submission
"i'm gonna go dustin stoltzfus for the upset and i'm actually considering uh betting him at the underdog price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.

"it's dogger pass for me i'm gonna go soul foods the guy who actually fights at 185 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.

predicts KO
"i'm going with dwight grant in the middleweight division dustin stoltzfus other than looking like tom hardy um there's no real impressive part of his career whatsoever"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gerald Meerschaert 0 12 of 32 37% 51 of 72 4 of 4 100% 1 0 7:27
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 11 of 22 50% 19 of 30 1 of 1 100% 3 0 3:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 11 45% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:03
2 Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 11 45% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:56
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gerald Meerschaert 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 12 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gerald Meerschaert 12 of 32 37% 8 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 24 0 of 1 5 of 7
Dustin Stoltzfus 11 of 22 50% 8 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3
Dustin Stoltzfus 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3
Dustin Stoltzfus 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gerald Meerschaert 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1
Dustin Stoltzfus 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Round 1
Grappler faces grappler in the preliminary headliner, as grizzled veteran Meerschaert (33-14, 8-6 UFC) comes in with more submission wins (25) than his opponent Stoltzfus (13-3, 0-2 UFC) has in total professional appearances (16). Keeping a close eye on the proceedings will be referee Mark Smith, who observes the middleweights come forward without any interest in touching gloves. Meerschaert lands first with an overhand right, and Stoltzfus greets him in the middle and throws back with bad intentions. “GM3” delivers a clean kick straight to the liver, and when Stoltzfus absorbs it, Meerschaert crashes forward to hit a double that sets Stoltzfus on his backside. Seated against the fence, Stoltzfus holds on Meerschaert’s neck with a guillotine choke, but Meerschaert is not remotely concerned as he pulls his opponent from away from the fence and steps over to try to claim guard. Stoltzfus clings to a shoulder lock from his back, and again, Meerschaert does not register this as he slowly works his way to secure full mount. Stoltzfus manages to get Meerschaert’s legs back to settle for half guard, and Meerschaert mounts him until he gets pulled back once more. Stoltzfus explodes back to his feet, where he searches for a single. Stoltzfus finds himself in a precarious position as Meerschaert grabs hold of a combined armbar and kneebar, but Stoltzfus is able to wriggle both limbs out so that he can take top position. Meerschaert scrambles when Stoltzfus starts to score with elbows, and he gets to his knees but Stoltzfus is ready for him. As soon as Stoltzfus puts Meerschaert on his back, Meerschaert reintroduces himself with a speedy armbar. Stoltzfus fights out of danger, where he gets into side control with Meerschaert on his side. Stoltzfus ends up in half guard delivering some ground-and-pound right to the bell, concluding the close first frame in top position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert

Round 2
The middleweights start throwing hands right out of the gate, when Meerschaert sneaking in a right hand and ducking back from a looping punch coming his way. They swing for the fences, and Meerschaert throws himself off-balance in the exchange. Stoltzfus throws a leg kick, and it gets caught, but he does not manage to do anything with it before setting it down. They both miss with high-intensity kicks, although Meerschaert is able to close the distance and deliver a knee square to the solar plexus. As they tie up, Stoltzfus pursues a takedown, and he grounds Meerschaert and falls into a guillotine choke setup. Stoltzfus pops his head out without much concern, and he stacks Meerschaert up to prohibit him from setting up anything with his legs. Meerschaert pushes off with his feet on the thighs, but Stoltzfus is able to leap back down in time before “GM3” can stand. This time, Meerschaert closes his guard, and Stoltzfus keeps his weight pressed tightly on his foe. Every so often, Stoltzfus sits up to throw a strike, and he comes back down before Meerschaert can do anything off his back. Meerschaert looks for an armlock as Stoltzfus again stacks him up, but there is nothing doing while Stoltzfus clings to him in half guard. When Stoltzfus lands a few strikes from above, Meerschaert bursts back up and gets to his knees. Stoltzfus attacks with a brabo choke when Meerschaert is in this position, and he puts his leg above Meerschaert’s neck to set up a modified version of a Peruvian necktie. “GM3” defends against it, only for Stoltzfus to jump back down when Meerschaert is on his back to land some ground strikes. He ends the second round doing damage with ground-and-pound.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus

Round 3
Meerschaert blocks an immediate high kick when Stoltzfus attacks to begin the final round, and he lays into Stoltzfus with an overhand right. Stoltzfus turns him around and hits the double, and Meerschaert defends again with a guillotine choke that is suddenly tight. Stoltzfus turns and twists while the arm is beneath his chin, but he calmly, methodically slips his neck out of the choke. Meerschaert powers back up, and he blocks a punch to go for one of his own. The two tired men throw bombs, and Meerschaert lands and absorbs a strike coming back at him. Stoltzfus drives through with a double, putting Meerschaert on his back and landing in side control. Meerschaert once more scrambles, letting Stoltzfus slip out the back door so he can wind up on top. Stoltzfus stays on his knees as Meerschaert tries to take his back, until Stoltzfus suddenly turns to attack a leglock. “GM3” spins through it to free his ankle, and he aims to take Stoltzfus’ back and manages to get a hook in.
From there, the Roufusport grappling coach instantly attacks the neck, sinking in a rear-naked choke as the arm slides beneath the chin. Stoltzfus tries to punch Meerschaert twice from behind his head to do something, anything. He promptly bails on punching, and taps out as he would be put to sleep seconds later.
This is a big comeback for “GM3,” who has notched three submission wins in a row over three tough opponents.

The Official Result
Gerald Meerschaert def. Dustin Stoltzfus R3 2:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert because he is dangerous on the ground and has proven he can survive being stunned. He notes that Meerschaert's chin looked better in his last fight, but Stoltzfus has legitimate power. Angelo thinks Meerschaert will avoid the KO, get the fight to the ground, and win by submission. However, he acknowledges a Stoltzfus KO is very live.

"the pick is gerald to avoid the ko get it to the ground where he needs to be but a dustin ko is 100 percent live"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his superior experience, striking improvements, and dangerous ground game (94% finish rate, 76% submission rate). He is not sold on Stoltzfus, who was out-struck by Kyle Daukaus and slowed down against Rodolfo Vieira. He expects Meerschaert to get a late submission.

submission
"I'm gonna go gerald meerschaar to win by submission here late in the fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Cody is confident in Meerschaert, noting his experience, BJJ, and better striking and wrestling than Stoltzfus. He points out that Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and has been submitted by lower-level opponents. Cody thinks Meerschaert can win wherever the fight goes, though he warns about Meerschaert's chin. He considers -235 a fair price.

"I go with jared mirshar's chin is not good enough to make him a top ticket play but I mean he's got legitimate wins in the ufc"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert but is not comfortable laying -230. He respects Meerschaert's submission record and veteran savvy, but notes that Meerschaert typically wins as an underdog. Levi thinks Stoltzfus is no slouch and has faced tough competition, but believes Meerschaert's experience and ground game will be the difference. He expects a competitive fight where Meerschaert eventually finds a submission or wins a decision, but advises passing the bet or taking the dog.

Meerschaert by submission; pass on betting
"I lean Mirsherd... but minus 225 is not a lean type price so it's dog or pass."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Jacob picks Dustin Stoltzfus, believing he will dominate the fight. He thinks Meerschaert's takedowns are sloppy and that Stoltzfus will defend them and win the striking exchanges. Jacob notes that Stoltzfus outstruck Rodolfo Vieira 2-1 before being submitted, and that Meerschaert's chin is questionable. He expects Stoltzfus to knock Meerschaert out.

"i think that dustin honestly dominates this fight these odds seem crazy to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

The host leans towards Meerschaert inside the distance at even money. He notes that Meerschaert is hittable but has great submissions, and Stoltzfus is not UFC quality. However, he is not passionate due to Meerschaert's inconsistency.

Meerschaert inside the distance (+100)
"the inside the distance around even money is not too bad of a spot so uh that's the way i'd go mirsha inside the distance even money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Paul agrees with Meerschaert, noting his submission record and cardio. He thinks Stoltzfus hasn't shown anything in the UFC to get excited about. Paul doesn't love laying -235 but sees Meerschaert as the clear better fighter.

"I mean gerald marshall in fairness too has what the most submission victories in at least middleweight history"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

The MMA Guru calls this one of the locks of the card, picking Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round guillotine choke. He notes Meerschaert has been looking great recently and Stoltzfus is one-dimensional. He thinks Stoltzfus cannot take Meerschaert down or submit him, and Meerschaert will land big shots and latch on a guillotine when Stoltzfus shoots for a takedown.

second round guillotine choke submission
"i think this is one of the locks of the card"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second or third round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
Comments (2)
BR
brian 8 months, 2 weeks ago

Kevin is a fat fuck who missed weight by 6 pounds. Boxing looked good. Dustin gave it a go a few times but ultimately its b star vs a star

BR
brian 8 months, 3 weeks ago

Kelvin is more skillful but should not be fighting at 185. Lazy sack of shit. Dustin is stiff in the pocket ect and gets dropped but has improved his striking. Also will be in better shape.