Rafa García vs Jared Gordon

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	59 of 169	34%	79 of 194	4 of 7	57%	0	0	1:50
Alexander Hernandez	0	50 of 145	34%	54 of 149	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	0	10 of 40	25%	15 of 45	2 of 2	100%	0	0:28
Alexander Hernandez	0	8 of 27	29%	8 of 27	0 of 1	0%	0	0:00
2	Rafa García	0	20 of 66	30%	20 of 66	0 of 1	0%	0	0:10
Alexander Hernandez	0	18 of 38	47%	18 of 38	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
3	Rafa García	0	29 of 63	46%	44 of 83	2 of 4	50%	0	1:12
Alexander Hernandez	0	24 of 80	30%	28 of 84	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	59 of 169	34%	52 of 161	1 of 2	6 of 6	57 of 165	2 of 3	0 of 1
Alexander Hernandez	50 of 145	34%	40 of 126	9 of 14	1 of 5	50 of 145	0 of 0	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	10 of 40	25%	6 of 36	0 of 0	4 of 4	10 of 39	0 of 0	0 of 1
Alexander Hernandez	8 of 27	29%	5 of 20	3 of 4	0 of 3	8 of 27	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	20 of 66	30%	19 of 65	0 of 0	1 of 1	19 of 65	1 of 1	0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez	18 of 38	47%	14 of 32	3 of 4	1 of 2	18 of 38	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	29 of 63	46%	27 of 60	1 of 2	1 of 1	28 of 61	1 of 2	0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez	24 of 80	30%	21 of 74	3 of 6	0 of 0	24 of 80	0 of 0	0 of 0

Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-145); Garcia (+120)

Round 1
Going forward, the last six athletes tonight hoist UFC records above .500. Even with a defeat, any one of the losing parties will not fall to that threshold either. Garcia (18-4, 6-4 UFC) has seen some serious success as of late, winning four of five including a knockout of Jared Gordon in his last time out. Hernandez (18-8, 10-7 UFC) finally gets to fight again after a UFC 324 match against Michael Johnson was nixed due to extreme betting irregularities. Referee Kerry Hatley will stand vigilant while the lightweights engage in sanctioned fisticuffs, with the two athletes not bothering to bump fists first.
They engage in some early jabbery and pokery, with Garcia looking to follow his ones with right hands. He scores one to drive Hernandez back a few steps, reddening the Texan’s nose immediately. Garcia nails the front leg with a kick so hard that Hernandez has to recoil it behind his other leg, and he circles on the outer edge looking for a way in. Garcia plans a kick on the front leg again while Hernandez is about to engage, shutting that attack down. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, getting it off just before Garcia can hit him with his overhand right. Garcia bounces and works his way forward, staying away from Hernandez’ kicks as he jabs straight ahead. Garcia wings a short left hook that brushes the chin, putting “The Great Ape” on notice.
Hernandez shadowboxes on the outside edge, unable to get close, while Garcia can seemingly close the distance at will. Garcia plans a kick on the inside calf, and Hernandez gives him back a loud body kick to think about. Garcia plods forward using a tight, high guard, keeping Hernandez to largely single strikes. Garcia stings his opponent and sees an opening to drop down to his knees to get hold a double, and he tosses Hernandez down for a second. Hernandez climbs back up, and Garcia elevates him with a high-crotch lift and slams him down with gravitas. Hernandez appears no worse for wear as both men gets back to their feet without issue, but it is Garcia who continues to press the action. Hernandez comes up short on his winging punches, but a left hand brushes open a cut on Garcia’s left eye. Hernandez is shoved to his knees, and he eats a few shots before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Picking up right where he left off, Garcia is the pressure fighter. He works his way in to drive a left hand down the middle, drawing a thin trickle of blood from his foe’s left nostril. Hernandez keeps his wits about him as Garcia plods towards him, but the volume from Garcia has diminished to a degree. Garcia walks his man down to put three fists on the face, and he chases but does not cut off “The Great Ape” as he stays right in front of him. Hernandez has to desperately scramble from side to side to get away, and the accuracy of Garcia is something to behold as Hernandez appears shocked when he gets caught repeatedly.
Hernandez tries to back Garcia off with a head kick, but Garcia blocks it and flashes a devilish grin. Garcia counters a front kick with a right hand down the pipe, snapping the head back and forcing Hernandez to circle rapidly to his right away from the power. The fists of Garcia have quickly transformed Hernandez’ visage into a bloody mess, while Garcia’s light wound on his eyebrow opens up again during a fierce but brief exchange. Garcia wades forward, stops, winds up and throws, and he tags Hernandez flush. He changes levels to break things up, and Hernandez keeps to his feet and backs off. Garcia jabs him up and starts talking to him as the round ends, with both men getting into the other’s face. Hatley has to separate them and usher them back to their respective corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia does not stay seated in his corner long enough to get his eye cut sealed, as he is amped up and ready to throw hands. He does exactly that when the third round kicks off, stepping right into the pocket to throw hammers. Hernandez has to inevitably retreat due to the pressure, so Garcia does not let him off the hook. Garcia throws everything and the kitchen sink, and Hernandez’ chin is granite but as it starts to fade, he starts to engage less and circle more. With Hernandez backpedaling, Garcia rushes after him and pursues a takedown.
Hernandez stands him up with his back to the fence, keeping his balance as blood leaks from his nose. Garcia elevates and dumps Hernandez down, and when Hernandez stands, Garcia belts him with a sharp combination. Hernandez throws back no matter the position, but Garcia is unafraid of the return offerings. Hernandez starts to pick things up, almost certainly down on the scorecards, and he manages to back Garcia up after landing cleanly a few times. The fighters duke it out one after the other, with big damage developing around Hernandez’ left eye. No one cares about damage or blood or anything, engaging in an absolutely rip-roaring slugfest for the remainder of the round. Damage was inflicted aplenty in their 15-minute engagement, and the fighters squash any inkling of a beef right after the final horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as the better fighter, citing his explosiveness, speed, cardio, and power. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges that Rafa García is the better straight wrestler, but believes Hernandez scrambles well and has good cardio. He expresses concern that Hernandez needs to pull the trigger and not be outworked.

"Alexander Hernandez is the better fighter, so he's the pick. I just need him to actually pull the trigger."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García over Alexander Hernandez. He sees advantages for García in boxing volume, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He expects a close fight but believes García's pace and cardio will be key, predicting a split decision win.

García wins by decision

"I'm going to take Garcia Garcia by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)

Rafa García

The host thinks Garcia is the better fighter but had a poor last performance. He expects a stand-up fight where Garcia can pressure Hernandez and test his gas tank. He notes Hernandez slows down and Garcia is durable, having been finished only once. He will bet Garcia +3.5 because Garcia is very likely to win the third round, and the fight likely goes to decision.

Garcia +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision; great for live betting

"I will be betting Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 just because... I think it's very very very very very likely Garcia will win the third round."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Alexander Hernandez

James picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his athleticism and power advantage. He expects Hernandez to win the first two rounds and possibly fade in the third, but still outwork Garcia. He notes Garcia's toughness but believes Hernandez's level is higher.

"I like Alexander Hernandez in this one. I think he's going to get it done."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak with good durability and volume striking. Hernandez has a four-fight winning streak but relies on power and wrestling, and he has a questionable gas tank. Garcia should be able to stuff takedowns, outwork Hernandez on the feet, and pull away in the later rounds to win a decision.

"I think we'll see Garcia shuck off the takedowns of Hernandez or at least showcase enough resistance there that Hernandez can't grind out rounds. And then on the feet, I think Garcia has good enough uh durability that he should …"

MMA Lock of the Night

WIN vs Jared Gordon

KO R3 2:27 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	1	91 of 162	56%	107 of 179	2 of 3	66%	2	1	2:01
Jared Gordon	0	65 of 186	34%	80 of 201	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	0	22 of 41	53%	23 of 42	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:24
1	Jared Gordon	0	23 of 64	35%	24 of 65	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
2	Rafa García	0	33 of 61	54%	48 of 77	1 of 2	50%	1	1	1:12
2	Jared Gordon	0	31 of 86	36%	45 of 100	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:09
3	Rafa García	1	36 of 60	60%	36 of 60	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:25
3	Jared Gordon	0	11 of 36	30%	11 of 36	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	91 of 162	56%	74 of 144	7 of 7	10 of 11	70 of 137	10 of 11	11 of 14
Jared Gordon	65 of 186	34%	55 of 171	8 of 13	2 of 2	65 of 186	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	22 of 41	53%	15 of 33	2 of 2	5 of 6	20 of 39	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Jared Gordon	23 of 64	35%	16 of 55	5 of 7	2 of 2	23 of 64	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	33 of 61	54%	26 of 54	3 of 3	4 of 4	27 of 55	6 of 6	0 of 0
2	Jared Gordon	31 of 86	36%	29 of 82	2 of 4	0 of 0	31 of 86	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	36 of 60	60%	33 of 57	2 of 2	1 of 1	23 of 43	2 of 3	11 of 14
3	Jared Gordon	11 of 36	30%	10 of 34	1 of 2	0 of 0	11 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-240); Garcia (+200)

Round 1
Kerry Hatley is the referee. Garcia opens with a low kick. Gordon steps in and lands a left. Gordon crashes forward and they exchange. Garcia fires right back. They trade leg kicks but Garcia is more impactful. Gordon probes with a lead hook and a jab. He follows up with a 1-2. A straight right connects for Garcia. A hard leg kick lands for Garcia. A short right by Garcia buckles Gordon’s knees momentarily, but he’s still in the fight. Gordon lands a body kick and then a striaght right. Garcia catches a kick and tags his foe with a right. Gordon stumbles to the floor but pops right back up. Garcia is hunting for that right and finds the range on another one. A stiff jab backs Gordon up. Gordon sticks a jab of his own. A counter right by Gordon makes an impact. He strings some punches together to back Garcia up. As Gordon gains momentum, Garcia changes levels and gets a takedown. Gordon gets to the fence and stands. They stay in the clinch, and Garcia lands a left on the break. Gordon lands a left hook before the end of the period.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 2
Garcia makes Gordon stumble backward with a left at the outset. They’re trading and Gordon gets the better of it. Garcia jumps a guillotine and then rolls into mount. Gordon gets out of it and now must defend Garcia from his back. Gordon moves to the fence and works his way up. Garcia tries to drag Gordon down but it’s unsuccessful. They get back to boxing in the center of the cage. Plent of shots are landing. Gordon has Garcia covering up after landing a couple big rights. Garcia clinches and lands some uppercuts in close. Gordon jabs and then touches his foe with a right. Garcia with a stiff jab, but a counter left hook by Gordon has Garcia backing up. They’re trading in the pocket, but Gordon is landing combinations with more volume. However, Garcia cuts his opponent with an elbow. Gordon with a front kick down the middle. Garcia stumbles after eating a left hook. Garcia with a hard elbow in close quarters late and concludes the round with a takedown as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia opens with a 1-2. He follows with an inside leg kick. Gordon responds with a combination in the pocket. They clinch and Garcia lands a couple of slashing elbows. Gordon pumps his jab. A left hook from Garcia stops Gordon. A heavy 1-2 finds the mark for Garcia, who then rips the body. GArcia is upping the volume as Gordon seems to be slowing. A right by Gordon lands on the side of the head, but Garcia is still attacking. Garcia rips the body with a left. A clean short right to the chin sends Gordon tumbling to the floor. Garcia tees off with punches on his reeling opponent before locking in a modified rear-naked choke. It’s pretty tight, but
he gives up on the submission to pummel Gordon with elbows from top position. He batters a bloodied Gordon with several more elbows before Hatley intervenes.
It’s a violent finish and just Garcia’s second career win via KO or TKO.

The Official Result
Rafa Gacia def. Jared Gordon via TKO (Elbows) R3 2:27

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, calling him the better overall fighter and more well-rounded. He notes Gordon is a good wrestler with high volume striking, tough and busy. He says he has seen Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his, and Jared Gordon not get decisions that should have been his. He is surprised to see Gordon as a 3-to-1 favorite. He suggests Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 as a possible bet.

Rafa Garcia plus three and a half might be the best bet here.

"I am going to pick Jared Gordon here. I have seen with my own eyes Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Gordon due to his pace, volume, and recent power. He worries about corrupt judges but expects Gordon to win a decision. He notes Garcia is tough and has only been knocked out by Grant Dawson, so a finish is unlikely.

Decision win; not in love with the price

"Give me Gordon here. Not in love with the price tag to be honest, but I think he wins the fight and wins it by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Connor picks Jared Gordon, emphasizing Gordon's technical boxing and ability to impose his game plan. He notes that García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher shows he can be outworked, and Gordon is a more dangerous fighter than Gruetzemacher. Connor believes Gordon's pressure and sharper striking will overcome García's durability and lack of strategy.

"I think that Gordon can repeat that kind of success because he's a much more dangerous fighter than Chris Gruetzemacher was."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Gordon is a big fan favorite and the host believes Garcia's lack of knockout threat allows Gordon to dictate the pace. He expects Gordon to stay on the gas, put Garcia against the cage, land takedowns, and win on the scorecards.

"I think this is a matchup where the lack of knockout threat from Rafa Garcia will allow Gordon to dictate the pace of this fight. Look for him to stay on the gas, put Garcia up against the cage, maybe …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling him the most underrated lightweight on the roster. He argues Gordon's boxing is superior to Garcia's and that Garcia lacks power. He criticizes Garcia's wins as unimpressive and believes Gordon should be a bigger favorite. He predicts a dominant performance with a TKO in the late second round, possibly including a 10-8 round.

TKO late second round

"I'm going with Jared Gordon, the most underrated lightweight on the roster. ... I'm going to say Jared Gordon gets this one done by a TKO in the first or second round."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Zane picks Jared Gordon, citing Gordon's improved boxing form and power, which should allow him to land the bigger shots. He notes that García is durable but lacks power and a strategic approach, often floating through fights. Zane believes Gordon's consistent pressure and sharper striking will win a three-round war, as García's lack of imposition makes him vulnerable.

"I think I have to pick Jared Gordon in that kind of fight. He is likely to land the bigger shots."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Vinc Pichel

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	64 of 120	53%	76 of 136	2 of 6	33%	0	0	2:15
Vinc Pichel	0	79 of 182	43%	88 of 191	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:01

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	12 of 24	50%	19 of 33	1 of 2	50%	1:06
1	Vinc Pichel	13 of 38	34%	21 of 46	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Rafa García	21 of 49	42%	24 of 52	0 of 2	0%	0:23
2	Vinc Pichel	32 of 70	45%	32 of 70	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Rafa García	31 of 47	65%	33 of 51	1 of 2	50%	0:46
3	Vinc Pichel	34 of 74	45%	35 of 75	0 of 2	0%	0:01

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	64 of 120	53%	49 of 102	12 of 14	3 of 4	59 of 114	4 of 5	1 of 1
Vinc Pichel	79 of 182	43%	32 of 116	27 of 43	20 of 23	74 of 174	4 of 7	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	12 of 24	50%	7 of 17	3 of 4	2 of 3	11 of 23	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Vinc Pichel	13 of 38	34%	7 of 30	2 of 3	4 of 5	12 of 36	0 of 1	1 of 1
2	Rafa García	21 of 49	42%	16 of 44	4 of 4	1 of 1	21 of 49	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Vinc Pichel	32 of 70	45%	12 of 43	13 of 19	7 of 8	29 of 67	3 of 3	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	31 of 47	65%	26 of 41	5 of 6	0 of 0	27 of 42	3 of 4	1 of 1
3	Vinc Pichel	34 of 74	45%	13 of 43	12 of 21	9 of 10	33 of 71	1 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rafa Garcia vs. Vinc Pichel
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-485), Pichel (+370)

Round 1
Twelve years separate the next two competitors, with the younger man a heavy betting favorite. Garcia (16-4, 4-4 UFC) gets a huge pop from the crowd as the first Mexican-born athlete to hit the stage today, while the leisurely paced Pichel (14-4, 7-4 UFC) is showered in boos. The lightweights with a fairly similar amount of combat experience touch gloves before referee Raul Porrata. Pichel keeps his distance early, parrying any incoming fire and letting the energy in favor of Garcia wash over them both. Garcia breaks the silence with a huge overhand right and rips a left to the liver. Pichel responds with a left hook that makes the Mexican fighter back off for a moment, and Garcia measures him with a thudding right hand that makes Pichel have to blink it out repeatedly. Garcia crowds him with a pair of hooks, and he swats away a head kick. Garcia crashes through a low kick to hurl punches, and Pichel keeps a wide berth and stabs out a front kick. Garcia comes up short with haymakers, allowing the elder Pichel to potshot him from a safe distance. When Pichel kicks low, Garcia wings a right hand over the top. Pichel fires back with a vengeance, and Garcia shrugs it off and stays close in front of him but not too close. Garcia scores a single low kick and is jabbed back, and he raises his guard in the nick of time to block an overhand right. Garcia swings wide to the body, forcing Pichel to ricochet off the wall, and he hammers the front leg with a kick. Pichel loads up with a body kick, and Garcia smiles at him and continues to crowd him. Garcia pushes a front kick out of the way to crowd the older fighter, pressing him against the wall while stomping on his toes. Garcia lifts Pichel’s legs up and is about to deposit him to the ground, but Pichel regains his balance. Perhaps in a poor bit of decisionmaking, Pichel spins for a back elbow while tightly pressed to his foe, and this allows Garcia to hit a clean double on him. Garcia rides out the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
The athletes get right back down to business, trading leather early and often. Pichel sneaks in a right hand and slips to the side, and he dips to fire off an uppercut and jogs away to reset. Pichel’s stance switches and awkward movement prevents Garcia from blitzing him on the regular, and he keeps his head on a swivel to not get caught with anything flush. Garcia nevertheless walks him down and blasts him in the face with a crisp right hand, and then chains two more fists behind it. Pichel flashes out his jab, pop pop bang, to keep Garcia from going at him. Pichel pushes off while trying to push his foe’s arm out of the way, and his thumb slides deep into Garcia’s eye socket. Pichel immediately apologizes before Porrata gets between them, and he gives Garcia all the time he needs to recover. Garcia takes it, accepts Pichel’s fervent apology and gets back to walking the aging fighter down. Pichel uses his knee to frame off, and he strings a few punches together behind it. Pichel tosses up a head kick that is blocked in time, and he probes out a right hand before getting his head snapped back with a one-two. Pichel tries to jump his way forward, and he pushes off Garcia’s face and slams his shin on Garcia’s calf. Garcia grimaces and wraps Pichel up in hopes of taking him down. Pichel leans against the wall to keep himself upright, and he postures off and breaks free, where he puts punches and kicks together in rapid succession. Pichel fakes to the body to open up a head shot, and Garcia can only swing big right hands back at him. A few of those get through, and Pichel beans him with a counter overhand right to make him think twice about entering the pocket with his hands low. Pichel comes up swinging with a huge uppercut, and he hand-fights to parry most of the blows aimed at him. Pichel jabs to the head and body, and he splits the guard with a front kick, toes extended towards the target. Garcia lumbers forward swinging heavy leather, and Pichel skirts to the slide and flicks out a few low kicks to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pichel

Round 3
Pichel is fired up to start up the last round, and he channels that energy with frenetic punches and kicks that stop Garcia from getting through to him. Pichel strings a few punches together up top, and Garcia clutches his eye as if he was poked. Pichel claims it was a closed fist that did the damage, and he unloads with flying fists until Garcia steels himself and comes back out swinging. Pichel counters the flailing strikes, but he is taking shots to the body and taking heavy breaths. Garcia continues to put everything behind every one of his swings, while Pichel is more than content to jab and prod. When Garcia looks to charge, Pichel pushes him back with jabs and front kicks, but Garcia decides to pour it on and tags Pichel a few times. Pichel rebounds off the fencing and uses his push kick to redden up Garcia’s midsection. Pichel probers out with straight punches until getting tagged, and he starts swinging back with arc on his punches when not mixing in his front kick. Pichel further keeps things interesting by shooting for a takedown, and Garcia just stands before him and smiles at him. A Pichel front kick bumps the cup, and Garcia wants to keep going so it goes uncalled. Pichel loads up on body kicks and walks through three left hands, kicking Garcia constantly while keeping his distance. The leg kicks to the thigh and calf keep landing for “From Hell,” until Garcia is sick of taking them and just lifts Pichel up and deposits him down to the mat like a sack of potatoes. Pichel scoots his way towards the wall in hopes of walking up it, while Garcia tries to smother him and threaten with an arm-triangle choke. Pichel turns to his knees and stands, and Garcia slugs him in the face with numerous unanswered right hands. Pichel frees himself with seconds to go, and he lets Garcia have it with all his remaining energy. Punches, kicks and knees fly every which way until the final horn blares, signaling an end to what turned into an entertaining scrap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Vinc Pichel via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Connor picks García, noting his high-output, new-school wrestle-boxing style will overwhelm the aging Pichel. He acknowledges Pichel's toughness and low kicks as potential wrinkles but believes García's pace and boxing will be too much. He is surprised by the wide odds, given García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher.

"I think Garcia is tailor made to outwork and overwhelm Pichel. Pichel is slow enough that he just doesn't get to do a lot of the stuff he wants to do anymore."

MMA Vivisection

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Zane picks García, agreeing that his pace and pressure will be decisive. He notes Pichel's old-school style and lack of speed, comparing him to an aged Jan Błachowicz. Zane thinks García's boxing and wrestling defense are solid, and that Pichel's low kicks are a minor threat.

"I think Garcia is tailor made to outwork and overwhelm Pichel."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Grant Dawson

TKO (elbows and punches) R2 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Grant Dawson	0	44 of 90	48%	80 of 144	2 of 4	50%	0	0	5:09
Rafa García	0	5 of 12	41%	29 of 38	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Grant Dawson	20 of 52	38%	41 of 87	1 of 3	33%	3:50
1	Rafa García	4 of 10	40%	27 of 34	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Grant Dawson	24 of 38	63%	39 of 57	1 of 1	100%	1:19
2	Rafa García	1 of 2	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Grant Dawson	44 of 90	48%	38 of 76	4 of 12	2 of 2	5 of 24	0 of 0	39 of 66
Rafa García	5 of 12	41%	4 of 8	1 of 4	0 of 0	4 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Grant Dawson	20 of 52	38%	16 of 42	3 of 9	1 of 1	2 of 17	0 of 0	18 of 35
1	Rafa García	4 of 10	40%	3 of 6	1 of 4	0 of 0	3 of 9	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Grant Dawson	24 of 38	63%	22 of 34	1 of 3	1 of 1	3 of 7	0 of 0	21 of 31
2	Rafa García	1 of 2	50%	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Grant Dawson vs. Rafa Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-395), Garcia (+310)

Round 1
Moving right along, lightweight contender Dawson (21-2-1, 9-1-1 UFC) needs this next opportunity to put together a win streak. To do so, he will need to get past Mexico’s Garcia (16-3, 4-3 UFC), who will not make it easy on him. Referee Chris Tognoni checks in as the cage commander for this 155-pound contest, and it kicks off with a glove touch. Garcia crouches several times early, expecting to have to defend against a level change. Dawson meets one of those with a front kick, and Garcia just barely dodges it. Garcia avoids another jabbing kick to throw out a one-two to the body. Dawson sticks him with a jab and uses another front kick, and he parries an overhand right. Dawson gets knocked off-balance with a right hand, and he gathers himself and spins with a wheel kick. Garcia walks forward slinging hands, and Dawson answers a solid right hand with a single-leg entry that plants “Gifted” on his knee. Dawson hits a mat return when Garcia powers his way back up, and this time he has Garcia flat on his back. Dawson opens with ground-and-pound and is answered some from Garcia, and Garcia’s hit the back of his foe’s head as Tognoni asks him not to land fouls. Dawson sits up to hammer Garcia with two big punches, an elbow and some other ground strikes to disguise his guard pass to half guard. Dawson stays busy with smothering top control and active offense, getting hard shots in when not attempting to advance position. Dawson gets pushed back for a moment, and he bowls Garcia back over with elbows. “KGD” shifts from one side to the other to pass the guard, and he pounds down with strikes. Garcia kicks him off to gain a bit of space, only for Dawson to swarm him with standing-to-ground punches. Garcia scrambles madly until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and Dawson is eager to kick things off by kicking four times with four different types of kicks. His spin kick finds its home, and he uses that to get in close, swing an overhand right and duck low to secure an easy takedown less than 30 seconds into the round. Dawson finds openings and attacks with hammerfists or elbows, and he takes a chunk out of Garcia’s forehead with a Friday the 13th-insired slashing elbow. Blood sprays from the Mexican’s head as he turns to his knees, and Dawson further beats on him with a barrage of punches.
Sitting proudly in mount, “KGD” unleashes a mighty barrage of punches and elbows, clubbing Garcia as Tognoni asks Garcia to fight back. Dawson knows the finish is around the corner, with Garcia bloodied and bruised, and he finishes the job with a final salvo of punches. Tognoni has no choice to step in
, and the American Top Team contender notches his first knockout in nearly three years. In victory, Dawson becomes the first fighter to ever stop the durable man from Mexican.

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Rafa Garcia R2 1:42 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Angelo picks Grant Dawson despite disliking his fighting style. He notes that Dawson's wrestling and control are reliable, and that Rafa García tends to gas. Angelo acknowledges Dawson's knockout loss to Bobby Green but believes Dawson will win by grinding out a decision. He calls Dawson a reliable bettor's fighter.

"Grant Dawson probably wins this fight... he's somebody that you can rely on."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Big Brady picks Grant Dawson to win by third-round submission. He considers Dawson a top-15 lightweight with top-10 upside, and believes he is on another level compared to Garcia. He praises Dawson's wrestling and grappling, citing his submission of Jared Gordon and dominant win over Damir Ismagulov. He expects Dawson to get takedowns, wear on Garcia, and eventually find a submission in the second or third round. He thinks Garcia is solid but outmatched.

Dawson by third-round submission

"give me Dawson here you give me Dawson to win this fight by third round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Garcia's game is subtractive but not potent enough to stop Dawson's relentless wrestling. He notes that Garcia's wins over wrestlers like Clay Guida are not indicative because Guida is washed. Connor believes Dawson's suffocating style will eventually get the takedown and control the fight.

Same odds commentary.

"Dawson really insists on a suffocating wrestle grappling game and it's really hard to just take that away when you're not doing something that is killing him."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Daniel admits he dislikes Dawson's style and believes his striking is elementary, but he respects Dawson's grappling and top control. He notes that Rafa García has decent takedown defense but thinks Dawson will likely grind out a boring decision. Daniel hopes García stuffs takedowns and wins, but his head says Dawson's wrestling will be the difference.

"All emotions and biases aside, then Grant Dawson probably grinds two of the three rounds out and we hate ourselves for watching the fight."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Grant Dawson

Dawson does not care to entertain but gets wins. He will do what he did to Joe Solecki last time. Garcia may stop the first couple takedowns, but Dawson's great gas tank will wear on Garcia, allowing Dawson to win a classic Dawson decision.

"Dawson has a great gas tank and I think that will eventually wear on Garcia allowing Dawson to pull off a classic Dawson decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, citing his phenomenal grappling and talent advantage over Rafa García, who he says has no finishing potential. He notes Dawson's suspect chin and poor stand-up but believes his grappling will easily outclass García. He also mentions Dawson's momentum coming off a win and training with Makhachev.

"I'm going to go Grant Dawson... his grappling is phenomenal and really good and there is Talent there"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Grant Dawson

Zane picks Dawson because Garcia's anti-wrestling is based on defense and he isn't dangerous enough to keep Dawson off him. He notes that Garcia's best chance is to stuff takedowns early and tire Dawson, but Dawson often wins even after gassing. Zane thinks Garcia's lack of finishing ability means he can't overcome Dawson's pressure.

Dawson opened at -373, now -410; Garcia opened at +304, now +328.

"I gotta pick grant dawson. Unfortunately."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Clay Guida

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	63 of 252	25%	63 of 252	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:00
Clay Guida	0	141 of 287	49%	143 of 289	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:20

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	23 of 92	25%	23 of 92	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Clay Guida	34 of 89	38%	34 of 89	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Rafa García	21 of 88	23%	21 of 88	0 of 1	0%	0:00
2	Clay Guida	65 of 110	59%	65 of 110	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Rafa García	19 of 72	26%	19 of 72	0 of 2	0%	0:00
3	Clay Guida	42 of 88	47%	44 of 90	0 of 1	0%	0:20

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	63 of 252	25%	49 of 227	4 of 12	10 of 13	63 of 252	0 of 0	0 of 0
Clay Guida	141 of 287	49%	130 of 269	5 of 12	6 of 6	138 of 284	3 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	23 of 92	25%	16 of 82	2 of 4	5 of 6	23 of 92	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Clay Guida	34 of 89	38%	29 of 81	1 of 4	4 of 4	34 of 89	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	21 of 88	23%	17 of 80	1 of 4	3 of 4	21 of 88	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Clay Guida	65 of 110	59%	63 of 107	2 of 3	0 of 0	62 of 107	3 of 3	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	19 of 72	26%	16 of 65	1 of 4	2 of 3	19 of 72	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Clay Guida	42 of 88	47%	38 of 81	2 of 5	2 of 2	42 of 88	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rafa Garcia vs. Clay Guida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)

Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.

"half is going to be the pick I'm not gonna bet on him I just don't like those odds"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.

first round submission

"I like Garcia to win this fight by first round submission"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Rafa García

Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.

"gotta go with Rafa Garcia"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.

"I got to take Rafa Garcia."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.

Over 2.5 rounds

"I expect him to land the better and more significant strikes in the early goings of this fight maybe not put clay Guido away but do enough to win a decision."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Clay Guida

Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.

Small bet on Guida moneyline; also considering Guida by split decision prop

"I'm leaning towards clay just because of the money line we'll see where the where it goes I added a little bit of plus 210 really really small little play"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.

García wins by finish (KO/TKO)

"Rafa Garcia gets the job done"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.

Garcia opened -250/-230, now -245; Guida opened +200, now +213. Zane does not mention betting.

"I'm picking Rafa Garcia. This is not a hard fight to pick."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Maheshate

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	49 of 98	50%	79 of 138	6 of 11	54%	0	0	6:10
Maheshate	0	25 of 141	17%	30 of 148	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	16 of 29	55%	16 of 31	0 of 2	0%	0:29
1	Maheshate	11 of 62	17%	11 of 63	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Rafa García	13 of 36	36%	27 of 54	3 of 4	75%	2:26
2	Maheshate	8 of 52	15%	8 of 52	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Rafa García	20 of 33	60%	36 of 53	3 of 5	60%	3:15
3	Maheshate	6 of 27	22%	11 of 33	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	49 of 98	50%	29 of 70	11 of 17	9 of 11	28 of 64	11 of 13	10 of 21
Maheshate	25 of 141	17%	16 of 110	8 of 29	1 of 2	23 of 138	1 of 2	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	16 of 29	55%	8 of 17	6 of 9	2 of 3	15 of 28	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Maheshate	11 of 62	17%	7 of 47	3 of 14	1 of 1	10 of 60	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	13 of 36	36%	8 of 28	3 of 6	2 of 2	6 of 20	5 of 6	2 of 10
2	Maheshate	8 of 52	15%	5 of 42	3 of 10	0 of 0	8 of 52	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	20 of 33	60%	13 of 25	2 of 2	5 of 6	7 of 16	5 of 6	8 of 11
3	Maheshate	6 of 27	22%	4 of 21	2 of 5	0 of 1	5 of 26	0 of 0	1 of 1

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, noting that Maheshate gets taken down easily and Rafa has 18 takedowns in his last four fights. He likes Rafa's chin and offensive grappling to get the job done. He mentions the line has flipped from Maheshate being favorite to near even money, and he has already placed a moneyline bet on Rafa for premium members.

Has a moneyline bet on Rafa García; notes line movement

"I like Rafa here I think mahasete is definitely dangerous but he also gets taken down easily and Rafa Garcia has 18 takedowns in his last four fights"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García but is very hesitant due to lack of information on Maheshate. He notes García's path to victory is takedowns, but his top control is poor and he has cardio issues. Maheshate has a size advantage and may have improved takedown defense. Brady says it's a tough fight to call and he's staying away from betting, but leans García by decision.

"I am going to take Rafa Garcia to go out there um mixing takedowns and win a decision in this one"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Cody picks Garcia, noting his grinding style and cardio improvements. He thinks Garcia will take Maheshate down and grind him out. He notes Maheshate is a slow starter and Garcia has a good chin. He expects a decision win for Garcia.

Garcia by decision

"Rafa Garcia again I'm leading towards another decision on this one... gotta go with Rafa Garcia"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Rafa García

Connor picks Garcia, noting he is the well-rounded fighter and should win if he wrestles. He thinks Garcia is tough and can out-wrestle Maheshate, whose defensive wrestling is questionable. He acknowledges Garcia can lose random fights but expects him to win.

"I'll take garcia. That seems like enough"

MMA Vivisection

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Maheshate

Paul picks Maheshate as an underdog, noting his size and striking skills. He is concerned about Garcia's takedowns but thinks Maheshate can land a big shot. He sees value at plus money and is willing to take a shot. He makes it a Shoei bet with Cody.

"I'm gonna back my guy my shot the market is working its way away from me at this point... I'll take your two to one on this uh this whole Shoei operation uh I'll take my shot you get Rafa …"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García over Hayisaer Maheshate, going against the majority. He notes García's close fight with Jai Herbert and his submission win over Genesis Ronson. He questions Maheshate's competition and KO rate, pointing out that Maheshate took a decision against a 10-15 opponent. He expects García to pressure with a good chin and mix in grappling, potentially getting a late submission or decision win. He also mentions that Maheshate lost to a grappler in M1.

"I'm going half a Garcia here"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Maheshate

Zane picks Maheshate as a random chance pick, partly to avoid being mocked by a Twitter account he thinks might be Maheshate. He admits Garcia should win but thinks Maheshate could knock him out early. He notes Maheshate has good timing and hand speed.

"I'll take mahashate just because I don't want him to make fun of me again"

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Drakkar Klose

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Drakkar Klose	0	61 of 115	53%	111 of 175	2 of 10	20%	0	0	2:05
Rafa García	0	34 of 57	59%	83 of 111	3 of 11	27%	0	0	2:54

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Drakkar Klose	19 of 30	63%	33 of 53	2 of 7	28%	1:49
1	Rafa García	13 of 22	59%	21 of 30	0 of 1	0%	0:06
2	Drakkar Klose	14 of 29	48%	35 of 51	0 of 2	0%	0:16
2	Rafa García	5 of 12	41%	33 of 45	2 of 4	50%	2:11
3	Drakkar Klose	28 of 56	50%	43 of 71	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Rafa García	16 of 23	69%	29 of 36	1 of 6	16%	0:37

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Drakkar Klose	61 of 115	53%	24 of 75	27 of 29	10 of 11	32 of 83	24 of 25	5 of 7
Rafa García	34 of 57	59%	23 of 45	8 of 8	3 of 4	23 of 44	11 of 13	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Drakkar Klose	19 of 30	63%	7 of 17	9 of 10	3 of 3	9 of 18	7 of 8	3 of 4
1	Rafa García	13 of 22	59%	9 of 18	2 of 2	2 of 2	9 of 17	4 of 5	0 of 0
2	Drakkar Klose	14 of 29	48%	5 of 18	6 of 7	3 of 4	7 of 21	5 of 5	2 of 3
2	Rafa García	5 of 12	41%	1 of 8	3 of 3	1 of 1	4 of 11	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Drakkar Klose	28 of 56	50%	12 of 40	12 of 12	4 of 4	16 of 44	12 of 12	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	16 of 23	69%	13 of 19	3 of 3	0 of 1	10 of 16	6 of 7	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rafa Garcia vs. Drakkar Klose
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Klose (-230), Garcia (+195)

Round 1
Opening up the ABC- and ESPN-aired prelims is what should be a fun lightweight matchup, even if Klose (12-2-1, 6-2 UFC) is now battling late replacement Garcia (13-2, 2-2 UFC). Both fighters prevailed on the same event in April, locking down second-round finishes of Brandon Jenkins and Jesse Ronson, respectively, so the “Matches to Make” choice appeared to be an easy one. They touch ‘em up with referee Jacob Rosales watching on, and Klose claims the center of the cage but is nowhere close to his opponent. Garcia stays on the outer edge of the cage as Klose feints with jabs, and the first strike is actually a stomping kick to the knee from Klose. Klose kicks on the inside and outside of the leg, and Garcia swarms him with an overhand right that bowls him over – not from it actually hitting him hard, but from Garcia’s body tackling him down. Klose gets back up and starts working the calf, until Garcia closes the distance and aims punches to the body. The American greets him with knees until they split up, and Klose fakes a body kick and rips one on the other side before tying Garcia up. Klose effectively uses the calf kick to decent effect, as Garcia powers through it to club Klose in the chops with a left. Klose staggers back and tries to give one back, but Garcia is smooth on the outside as he kicks the knee and nearly buckles it. Klose gives chases, and in an ensuing clinch, they throw short punches one after the other. Klose forces a separation, with his legs appearing to be fully back under him again, and he walks Garcia down and measures a jab. When “Gifted” bites on it, Klose changes levels. Klose is unable to get the first takedown try, but Garcia turns around and gives up his back. This allows Klose to trip him out and plant Garcia on his face for a moment. Garcia powers his way back up, and he grabs the fence to keep himself balanced as Klose attempts a mat return. Klose trips Garcia’s left leg out beneath him again to plant him down, and he starts slugging away on Garcia. “Gifted” checks his face to make sure he is not bleeding, and when he does, Klose sucks his leg out and makes it so Garcia cannot simply power his way back up as easily as before. Garcia rolls for a leglock, and Klose breaks it up before anything can come from it. When they both get to their knees, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klose
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Klose
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klose

Round 2
Klose races out of his corner to start the next round, and he plants a wheel kick upside Garcia’s head before shooting for a takedown in the first 10 seconds. Garcia stuffs it but absorbs a few knees to the body when Klose bails on it, and Garcia powers his way out to the center of the Octagon. The lightweights feint and fake their way towards one another, with Klose employing his stomp kick and swinging his shin to the body. Garcia dips back and absorbs a glancing right hand, but he is no worse for wear. Klose lets go with a body kick, and Garcia cannot pin him down or trap him to land with impunity. Garcia begins to chop the legs down a few times, and Klose switches stance after absorbing the blows. Garcia winds up on a right hook, but Klose dips back and answers with a short left. Garcia, using his momentum in his favor, pushes through and knocks Klose off his feet with a double. “Gifted” gives Klose several gifts in the form of his fists, before stepping into half guard. The posture remains tight as Garcia does not want to give up any space or allow a sweep or any bucking movement, but this also results in a stalemate. The crowd is not a fan of this nullifying half guard for Garcia, and Klose moves his head around to dodge punches before Montalvo steps in to stand them up. Garcia shoots the second they get stood up, and Klose staves it off and connects with a solid left hand. As Garcia aims a right hand over the top, Klose ducks down for a possible takedown entry, and Garcia snatches this up to hunt for a standing guillotine choke. There is nothing to it, and Klose shucks it off and absorbs the end of a left hand. Garcia misses with a spinning back kick, and Klose is suddenly energized and he charges in with his head in the air to throw bombs. Garcia retreats, and he weathers the storm before scooping Klose’s legs out and planting him down to the ground. A few punches for the fighter out of Mexico land before the horn resounds in the arena.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Klose is the initial aggressor to start off the final round, pushing the pace and sticking his hands out to back Garcia off. The Michigan native jabs and makes Garcia dip down right into a head kick, and Garcia tanks it without budging. Garcia hunts for a takedown, and he redoubles his effort with a double that takes Klose off his feet. Klose threatens with a guillotine choke off his back, but with the cage behind him, there is no leverage to secure anything, and Garcia is comfortable without concern. Klose explodes back to his feet, and he throws hands to again force Garcia to back from one side of the cage to another. Klose allows Garcia to come at him so that he can set up a clinch in his favor, where he slams knees and punches into Garcia’s body. Klose senses that Garcia is fatiguing, and he strides forward without a care in the world, targeting the midsection and preparing to stuff takedowns. Klose gets Garcia’s attention with a low kick, and he has a clubbing right slide off the shoulder into the chin. Garcia’s hands largely drop by his waist, waiting for Klose to close the distance, so that he can lift them and sling something heavy. He has a thudding left connect cleanly, but Klose totally ignores it so that he can do more work to the body. Klose ties his man up after a failed takedown entry so that he can batter the body with punches and the occasional knee. Klose changes this up with his own takedown try, and Garcia pushes him off and backpedals. Garcia shoots for a single, and Klose gets shoved back to the wall and knees the ribs a few times to conclude the fight. Both men raise their hands after 15 minutes of combat, and some will almost certainly attempt the joke that the Klose fight was a close fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klose (29-28 Klose)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Klose (29-28 Klose)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klose (29-28 Klose)

The Official Result
Drakkar Klose def. Rafa Garcia via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Drakkar Klose

Big Brady picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision. He notes Garcia is on short notice and has cardio concerns, while Klose has fought much better competition. He expects the first round to be competitive but Klose's striking volume and takedown defense will carry him in later rounds. He mentions Garcia has never been knocked out, so a decision is likely.

"i like close to win here... i think he outstrikes garcia on the feet rounds two in rounds three and ultimately picks up a decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Drakkar Klose

Cody picks Klose, noting his technical striking, forward pressure, and solid takedown defense. He thinks Garcia's wrestling won't be a factor because Klose will stop takedowns and win the striking exchanges. He mentions that Klose's cardio is solid and that Garcia is limited and loopy with his strikes. He also notes that Klose's significant strikes over 60.5 is a good prop on PrizePicks.

Klose over 60.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks

"i think close is just going to win the striking exchanges from distance stop the takedowns keep it standing and just rinse and repeat"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Drakkar Klose

Daniel picks Klose to win another close decision, noting that most of his fights are 29-28. He thinks Klose finds a way to edge out rounds, whether by calf kicks or a late takedown. He acknowledges Garcia's toughness and Mexican warrior spirit, but thinks Garcia's cardio issues (from the Gritzmacher fight) could be a factor. However, he calls the -205 price too high for a fighter who usually wins close fights, so he passes on betting.

"I'm gonna go Drakkar Klose to win another 29-28 decision."

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)

Drakkar Klose

Preet picks Klose by decision, expecting him to push Garcia against the cage, use leg kicks, and control the fight. He notes Klose's efficient style and that Garcia's cardio fades, leading to Klose taking over in the second and third rounds. He passes on the moneyline due to Klose's tendency to fight close decisions.

"i'll go close here uh close to your decision"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Drakkar Klose

Paul picks Klose, citing his technical striking and good wrestling. He notes that Klose's losses are to very good fighters and that he looked great in his last fight against Brandon Jenkins. He thinks Garcia's wrestling won't be enough and that Klose will win the striking exchanges. He also mentions that Klose's takedown defense is solid and that Garcia is limited.

Klose over 60.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks

"gotta have to go with uh dracar close... the one thing that's always going to worry me about this guy for the rest of his foreseeable career is uh jeremy stevens almost ended his career"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)

Drakkar Klose

The MMA Guru predicts Drakkar Klose wins by 30-27 unanimous decision. He sees Klose as more technical and smart, landing calf kicks and body shots at range. Rafa García is tough but too one-dimensional. Klose will edge each round, possibly earning a 10-8 in the third.

unanimous decision

"dracar close gets this one done edging out every round"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Jesse Ronson

Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:50 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	0	35 of 80	43%	73 of 126	3 of 4	75%	1	0	4:37
Jesse Ronson	0	25 of 61	40%	28 of 64	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:02

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	26 of 64	40%	32 of 73	1 of 2	50%	0	0:35
1	Jesse Ronson	23 of 52	44%	25 of 54	0 of 0	---	0	0:00
2	Rafa García	9 of 16	56%	41 of 53	2 of 2	100%	1	4:02
2	Jesse Ronson	2 of 9	22%	3 of 10	0 of 1	0%	0	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	35 of 80	43%	31 of 76	3 of 3	1 of 1	26 of 70	1 of 1	8 of 9
Jesse Ronson	25 of 61	40%	13 of 48	6 of 7	6 of 6	25 of 60	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	26 of 64	40%	23 of 61	3 of 3	0 of 0	25 of 63	1 of 1	0 of 0
1	Jesse Ronson	23 of 52	44%	13 of 41	5 of 6	5 of 5	23 of 52	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	9 of 16	56%	8 of 15	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 7	0 of 0	8 of 9
2	Jesse Ronson	2 of 9	22%	0 of 7	1 of 1	1 of 1	2 of 8	0 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rafa Garcia vs. Jesse Ronson

Round 1
Lightweights take the stage as we move along the prelims, as Canada’s Ronson (21-10, 1 NC; 0-3, 1 NC UFC) will try to earn his first victory inside the Octagon in his fifth try. He will face “Gifted” Garcia (12-2, 1-2 UFC) out of Mexico in a battle of North American nations. Drawing the charge is referee Mark Smith, who hopes that what happened in the last fight takes place in this one. There is no glove touch, and instead the two fighters start trading in a hurry. Garcia lands with a solid right hand, and Ronson gets off an inside leg kick. As Ronson comes forward, Garcia acts as a matador and actually tosses Ronson down to the canvas. He does not pounce, allowing the Canadian to get back up, and they throw hands again. Garcia lines up his right hand, and Ronson is just able to get out of harm’s way each time. As Ronson advances, Garcia clubs him with this right, and Ronson shakes it off and tries to pay him back. The lightweight go tit-for-tat, with one landing, the other replying, and the first swinging back. Ronson jabs down the middle, and Garcia swings back at him with a more varied approach. A faked ankle pick from Garcia allows him to wing an overhand right, and Ronson rolls through it and comes right back. “The Body Snatcher” connects with a swiping kick to the body, and he tries to throw another only for the leg to get caught. Garcia swings him down to the ground, and Ronson scrambles right back up. When they are tied up, “Gifted” gives him man several gifts in the form of surprisingly powerful foot stomps, which lead to Ronson exploding out of the position. As Ronson recovers, Garcia shoots through his hips and plants him on the ground with a clean double. Ronson once more hops back up to his feet without being grounded for long, and when he stands, Garcia drills him in the face. Ronson does not stop moving forward, and Garcia lays into him and lands flush. Ronson powers straight ahead, landing with a few clean punches, and concluding the round with a low kick on the rear leg of his foe.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
The fighters march out of their corners, and they are quick to engage. Ronson marks Garcia up with a few punches, and Garcia comes forward to hit a takedown. The Canadian scrambles, and he works his way up to a knee. Before getting up, Garcia nails Ronson with an illegal knee, and Smith recognizes this instantly and lets out a heavy sigh as there is now nonsense in this fight too. Smith calls in the doctor to assess Ronson from the foul, and Ronson is a little wobbly but he informs the doctor that he is ready to continue. Smith properly deducts one point from Garcia for the foul, and he resumes the action. “Gifted” surges forward in pursuit of a takedown, and he drags Ronson right back down to the ground. Ronson scoots his way to the fence, and back up to a knee, but this time Garcia is not interested in landing knees as he wants to take his back instead. Garcia cannot lock up a choke, and as he pursues one, Ronson falls to his back to free up his neck. The Mexican fighter set up an arm-triangle choke from the guard, and he bails on it when he attempts to pass guard. Garcia hops over to half guard, where he starts hammering down with punches. Garcia grinds on top as his punches slow, keeping Ronson tightly pressed down to the ground. Ronson too holds on tight from below, in hopes of a standup or to at least stop Garcia from landing strikes. Garcia slowly works Ronson with several right hands, forcing Ronson to turn over. As Ronson tries to slide out the back door, Garcia grabs hold of his back and gets a hook in. Ronson turns to his knees and tries to buck Garcia off of him, but Garcia postures up and smacks Ronson upside the head.
The punches make Ronson adjust briefly, allowing “Gifted” Garcia the slightest of opportunities to slip his arm beneath the chin and lock up a rear-naked choke. It is all he needs, as he cinches the choke tight, and Ronson taps almost instantly as it is academic and he would be out seconds later.
That is one way to take the judges out of the equation, after Garcia lost a point a few minutes ago.

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Jesse Ronson R2 4:50 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García confidently, calling it a clear pick. He notes that García has more power, better ground game, and is dangerous everywhere. He mentions that Jesse Ronson may be more technical but has chin issues, and García hits like a truck for the weight class. He is surprised García is only a slight favorite and plans to bet the moneyline at -120 before the line moves.

moneyline bet at -120

"this is a clear pick for me i love hasag hafa garcia here and i'm going to throw a moneyline bet on him before this line moves because you know frankly i'm loving him at the minus 120 price point"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jesse Ronson

Big Brady slightly picks Jesse Ronson to win by close decision. He notes Ronson has better striking and cardio, while García has good wrestling but questionable cardio. He expects García to slow down as the fight goes on, allowing Ronson to take over late. He calls it a very close fight and says he won't bet on it.

"i will take jesse ronson slightly and i'll take him to win by a very close and competitive decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jesse Ronson

Cody picks Ronson, citing his technical striking and experience. He notes Garcia's struggles at 155 and the weight jump to 170. He thinks Ronson's sharpness and durability will be key, and calls him a live underdog.

"gotta go jesse ronson's dog money"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Levi has no clear pick, calling it a question of which version of Jesse Ronson shows up. If Ronson is the seasoned vet who has fought elite competition (Michel Prazeres, Kevin Lee) and is clean from his suspension, he picks Ronson. If Ronson is washed up, he picks Garcia. He notes Garcia is tough and gritty but has faced lower-level competition and was finished by Chris Gruetzemacher after gassing. Levi is uncertain and passes.

"Both guys at their best I got jesse ronson it's just are we getting both guys at their best that's the big question."

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Jesse Ronson

Paul leans towards Ronson after hearing Cody's analysis. He notes Ronson's technical striking and experience, and thinks Garcia may struggle moving up to 170. He plans to add Ronson to his card.

"i'm gonna add ronson to the card"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García due to Jesse Ronson's inactivity and age (36). He notes García's activity and visible improvements, and believes Ronson has regressed during his time off. He expects García to win a 29-28 decision in a fun scrap.

unanimous decision 29-28

"half of garcia gets this one done plus ronson's been injured on in his time off as well"

THE MMA GURU

View all 11 fights

Jared Gordon - Fight History

LOSS vs Jim Miller

Submission R1 3:29 · UFC 328 ·

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jim Miller	0	9 of 17	52%	10 of 18	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:00
Jared Gordon	0	7 of 16	43%	8 of 17	2 of 2	100%	0	0	0:44

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Jim Miller	0	9 of 17	52%	10 of 18	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:00
1	Jared Gordon	0	7 of 16	43%	8 of 17	2 of 2	100%	0	0	0:44

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jim Miller	9 of 17	52%	5 of 13	3 of 3	1 of 1	9 of 17	0 of 0	0 of 0
Jared Gordon	7 of 16	43%	4 of 11	2 of 3	1 of 2	7 of 15	0 of 1	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jim Miller	9 of 17	52%	5 of 13	3 of 3	1 of 1	9 of 17	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Jared Gordon	7 of 16	43%	4 of 11	2 of 3	1 of 2	7 of 15	0 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-325), Miller (+260)

Round 1
It’s Jim Miller (38-19, 1 NC; 27-18, 1 NC UFC) fight day, the first one of these this year. Coming up on 43 years of age, the New Jersey native still has a ways to go to reach 50 UFC bouts. He can get to 47 tonight once the cage doors close and referee Keith Peterson says go, when he battles Gordon (21-8, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC). This lightweight clash kicks off with no nonsense and no fist bump either.
Miller stalks Gordon down slowly and cautiously, keeping his gloves up to defend a high kick. Miller leaps forward and catches Gordon with a shovel uppercut. Gordon has to take a quick count of his teeth and absorbs a knee from up close. Miller breaks off and takes a body kick. Miller throws a low kick that bangs into Gordon’s cup, and Gordon tries to take him down and abandons it to adjust his groin. Peterson calls time and gives Gordon as much time as he needs to recover. After 80 seconds, Gordon is good to go, and Miller apologizes for the accidental foul. Gordon strikes first with a high kick that harmlessly bangs into the guard, and Miller crowds him behind a pair of hooks. Miller kicks the side again and is driven back with a right hand.
Gordon jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he catches a Miller body kick to shoot for a takedown.
This reckless shot is just traveling down the road to perdition for Gordon, as Miller snatches up a guillotine choke and cinches both legs around the waist, gripping the submission with everything he has. Miller rolls Gordon to the side, squeezing with his self-describes "old man strength." Miller arches his back and has Gordon dead to rights. Gordon surrenders so he does not go out on his shield, and the victorious Miller leaps atop the cage to let loose a roar of victory.
In less than four minutes, the OG Miller has notched his 28th victory in the Octagon, extending his own record. He has now finished 20 opponents as a UFC fighter, one shy of organizational leader Charles Oliveira. In victory, Miller gives it up to his son for beating cancer, declaring that anything he does in combat pales in comparison to what his offspring went through.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon R1 3:29 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, stating his hands are better and his takedown defense should be good enough. He dismisses Gordon's last loss due to being hit by a car. He notes Gordon is a touch younger and faster. However, he thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy and will not bet on it. He acknowledges Jim Miller's home advantage and toughness.

Angelo says he is not spending on the 3-to-1 odds.

"I'm gonna pick Jared Gordon here because I do think his hands are better and I think the takedown defense should be good enough to defend some of these Jim Miller takedowns. But 3 to 1 money is crazy. I'm …"

We Want Picks

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon but is not fully confident. He notes that Jim Miller is tough and experienced, and that the age difference might only be half a second faster. He thinks the fight is competitive and that Jim Miller plus 3.5 is not the worst bet. He mentions that Jim Miller has been finished in all his losses in New Jersey.

over round line lean

"I am picking Jared Gordon here. But the idea that Jim Miller can't hang on the feet seems something that you can dismiss."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, assuming he wasn't hit by a car before this fight. He notes Gordon fights at a high level and should be the minute winner everywhere. Brady expects Gordon to win by decision, though he acknowledges Jim Miller has power and a guillotine. He is rooting for Miller but thinks Gordon gets it done on the scorecards.

"I'm going to take Jared Gordon to win this fight by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, citing his youth and well-rounded skills. He thinks Gordon's striking and grappling are a step ahead of Miller, who is older and less active. Cody expects Gordon to win by decision.

"I'm picking Jared Gordon. Despite the fact that I want Jim Miller to win."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Jared Gordon

Connor also picks Gordon, focusing on directionality: Gordon has a clear process of pressuring and putting out volume, while Miller never has. Connor notes that Miller has no ability to be the one pressuring and will just accept the fight Gordon wants. He adds that Gordon is a little too fast and put together with his hands for Miller to take him out of his game.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300.

"I think I will because he is going to understand how to kind of tell the story of the fight to dictate in a way that Jim Miller never has been able to."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Jared Gordon

Daniel picks Gordon, predicting a 29-28 decision where Miller wins the first round but Gordon edges out the last two with top control. He respects Miller's legacy but sees Gordon's youth and grappling as decisive.

"I'm also going Gordon. I'm gonna go 2928 decision. I think Miller wins the first round. Gordon kind of edges out the last two with top control."

Half the Battle

FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)

Jared Gordon

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Gordon is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (5.64 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to the 41-year-old Miller. Miller's takedown defense (48%) is a liability, and Gordon has solid takedown defense (60%) to keep the fight standing. Gordon's recent KO win over Thiago Moises shows his power, while Miller has been knocked out multiple times. Gordon's pace and pressure should overwhelm Miller, leading to a late stoppage or clear decision.

Gordon by KO/TKO +400

FightingPost AI Analysis

Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Jacob picks Jared Gordon but is not betting on him out of respect for Jim Miller, who has been dealing with his son's cancer. He thinks Gordon should win but sees weird paths to victory for Miller. He might play Jim Miller in some capacity on Saturday.

"I got to pick Jared Gordon as a pick because I mean he should just be the better fighter."

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

The host picks Gordon, citing his pressure, pace, and power striking. He believes Gordon's grappling is good enough to keep Miller from grinding, and that Gordon's durability and cardio will allow him to dictate the fight. He expects a decision win, though he notes Miller's hometown crowd and power could pose a threat.

"I like Gordon here. I think he wins by decision."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Paul picks Gordon, citing his technical striking and Miller's decline. He notes Miller's age and distractions, and thinks Gordon is simply better everywhere. Paul expects Gordon to win.

"Jared Gordon is just a kind of like one step advance."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon but calls him a 'risky pick'. He notes Gordon's inconsistency but believes Jim Miller has lost his pop and recent performances have declined. He thinks Gordon should figure out the 55-year-old Miller and get a finish, though he initially says decision then corrects to finish.

by finish

"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon winning this one by decision. Um, by finish. Sorry."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Jared Gordon

Zane picks Gordon, citing his improved boxing and ability to dictate the fight with pressure and volume. He notes that Jim Miller lacks a clear process and is not a strategic thinker, while Gordon has a clear game plan. However, Zane acknowledges Miller's power and finishing ability, making Gordon vulnerable despite being the favorite.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300. Should probably be closer than that.

"I am going to take Jared Gordon."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Rafa García

KO R3 2:27 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Rafa García	1	91 of 162	56%	107 of 179	2 of 3	66%	2	1	2:01
Jared Gordon	0	65 of 186	34%	80 of 201	1 of 3	33%	0	0	0:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Rafa García	0	22 of 41	53%	23 of 42	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:24
1	Jared Gordon	0	23 of 64	35%	24 of 65	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
2	Rafa García	0	33 of 61	54%	48 of 77	1 of 2	50%	1	1	1:12
2	Jared Gordon	0	31 of 86	36%	45 of 100	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:09
3	Rafa García	1	36 of 60	60%	36 of 60	0 of 0	---	1	0	0:25
3	Jared Gordon	0	11 of 36	30%	11 of 36	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Rafa García	91 of 162	56%	74 of 144	7 of 7	10 of 11	70 of 137	10 of 11	11 of 14
Jared Gordon	65 of 186	34%	55 of 171	8 of 13	2 of 2	65 of 186	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Rafa García	22 of 41	53%	15 of 33	2 of 2	5 of 6	20 of 39	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Jared Gordon	23 of 64	35%	16 of 55	5 of 7	2 of 2	23 of 64	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rafa García	33 of 61	54%	26 of 54	3 of 3	4 of 4	27 of 55	6 of 6	0 of 0
2	Jared Gordon	31 of 86	36%	29 of 82	2 of 4	0 of 0	31 of 86	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Rafa García	36 of 60	60%	33 of 57	2 of 2	1 of 1	23 of 43	2 of 3	11 of 14
3	Jared Gordon	11 of 36	30%	10 of 34	1 of 2	0 of 0	11 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Rafa Garcia plus three and a half might be the best bet here.

"I am going to pick Jared Gordon here. I have seen with my own eyes Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Decision win; not in love with the price

"Give me Gordon here. Not in love with the price tag to be honest, but I think he wins the fight and wins it by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

"I think that Gordon can repeat that kind of success because he's a much more dangerous fighter than Chris Gruetzemacher was."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

TKO late second round

"I'm going with Jared Gordon, the most underrated lightweight on the roster. ... I'm going to say Jared Gordon gets this one done by a TKO in the first or second round."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

"I think I have to pick Jared Gordon in that kind of fight. He is likely to land the bigger shots."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Thiago Moises

KO R1 3:37 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jared Gordon	1	7 of 13	53%	21 of 36	1 of 1	100%	0	0	2:36
Thiago Moises	0	5 of 9	55%	11 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Jared Gordon	1	7 of 13	53%	21 of 36	1 of 1	100%	0	0	2:36
1	Thiago Moises	0	5 of 9	55%	11 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jared Gordon	7 of 13	53%	5 of 10	0 of 0	2 of 3	5 of 11	0 of 0	2 of 2
Thiago Moises	5 of 9	55%	3 of 6	0 of 1	2 of 2	5 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jared Gordon	7 of 13	53%	5 of 10	0 of 0	2 of 3	5 of 11	0 of 0	2 of 2
1	Thiago Moises	5 of 9	55%	3 of 6	0 of 1	2 of 2	5 of 9	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-110), Moises (-110)

Round 1
Lightweight veterans with technically equal records in the UFC—although one has a no contest—come to blows, with plans of remaining highly regarded in the talent-rich division. Gordon (20-7, 1 NC; 8-6, 1 NC UFC) is the one who also has the grey mark on his pace thanks to a clash of heads with Bobby Green, and has otherwise alternated wins and losses for a few years. The same can be said for Brazil’s Moises (19-8, 8-6 UFC), who is ready to continue the rivalry of his team of American Top Team against regional adversarial team Kill Cliff FC and its rep of Gordon. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep things on the up-and-up, but they are fine with one another and clap hands. The first strike thrown is a Moises body kick, which Gordon uses to easily sling his opponent to his back. Gordon practically walks into top control, and Moises wraps up his arms in an unorthodox armlock attack. Moises lets go of the lockup and lashes out with a short elbow off his back that opens a tiny cut on the top of Gordon’s forehead. Gordon responds with ample ground-and-pound of his own, smearing his blood all over the Brazilian’s head and chest. Moises works his way back up to his feet, ignoring the strikes lobbed at him so he can fight his way back up and away. They proceed to smack one another with low kicks, and Gordon darts in with a pair of punches that bounce off the guard. Leg kicks continue to fly, and they tag one another with single strikes. When Gordon ducks in to throw, Moises counters with a clean right hand over the top. “Flash” does not bat an eye, and instead lets Moises pitch a left hand at him.
This is exactly what he wants, as Gordon times a picture-perfect right hand that smashes into the American Top Team fighter’s chin and puts him down for the count. Moises’ head clatters off the mat when he collapses to the ground like a bird that’s had its wings clipped, and Gordon hammers the nail with a leaping right hand that gives commentator Michael Bisping flashbacks of when he took on Dan Henderson, cleanly separating Moises from his consciousness.
Before Hatley can get to them, Gordon gets one or two off that wake Moises back up, but they are merely academic as Gordon has dropped the hammer. Blood streaming down his face, Gordon stands up and shrugs, as if he knew he was going to do this all along. When Moises comes to, the two hug it out, but it is unclear if Moises knows the license plate number of the bus that just ran him over.

The Official Result
Jared Gordon def. Thiago Moises R1 3:37 via KO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Thiago Moises

Angelo picks Thiago Moises after going back and forth. He acknowledges that Jared Gordon has been screwed on scorecards and could be on a win streak, but trusts Moises's training and activity. He notes that Moises is a slick grappler with technical striking and that Gordon is inactive and not on as good a team. Angelo says likely no bets for this fight.

Likely no bets for this fight.

"I'm going to stick with Thiago Moises. I trust the training. I trust the activity."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Gordon's losses are to tough competition in close decisions, and he thinks Gordon's takedown defense and chin hold up. He expects a close competitive decision win for Gordon.

Gordon by decision

"I like Gordon here. ... I think he wins this fight and wins it by a pretty pretty close competitive decision."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Jared Gordon

The host finds this a tough puzzle but leans with Gordon's pace and pressure. He notes Moises has looked good against certain opponents but doesn't do well against guys who set the pace, and Gordon is exactly that. He expects Gordon to grind out a high pace, possibly get a late finish, but mostly win on the scorecards, provided his durability holds up.

Gordon by decision (possible late finish)

"I have to lean with Gordon's pace and pressure. Moises has looked very good against certain opponents, but he doesn't do well against guys that can set the pace."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Jared Gordon

The Guru picks Jared Gordon, citing a rule of thumb that beating Thiago Moises means you're good. He thinks Gordon has been robbed in recent decisions (Bobby Green, Nazareno Malegarie) and is better than his record. He acknowledges grappling concerns from the Grant Dawson loss but believes Gordon's fundamental grappling defense is strong. He predicts Gordon wins by decision.

"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon over Thiago Moises."

THE MMA GURU

CANCEL vs Kauê Fernandes

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Kauê Fernandes

Angelo leans towards Kauê Fernandes as an underdog, arguing that the odds are too wide. He notes that Jared Gordon's only real path to victory is wrestling, and Fernandes has solid takedown defense (62%) and dangerous striking. He worries about Fernandes' takedown defense but thinks Fernandes can win if he uses leg kicks to take away Gordon's wrestling.

"I'm going to lean the dog we're going two fights in a row dog Caillou Fernandez my one and only concern here is the takedown defense of Caillou"

We Want Picks

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon to win by finish in the second or third round. He heavily criticizes Kauê Fernandes' competition level, noting his opponents have poor records and he has not fought anyone decent. He believes Gordon's well-rounded skills and consistency will overwhelm Fernandes, who likely needs an early finish to win.

finish in round 2 or 3

"I'm going to go Jared Gordon getting this one done by finish in the second or third round"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Nasrat Haqparast

Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast	0	146 of 316	46%	156 of 330	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03
Jared Gordon	0	141 of 299	47%	170 of 338	0 of 13	0%	0	0	2:49

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Nasrat Haqparast	35 of 64	54%	35 of 66	0 of 0	---	0:03
1	Jared Gordon	16 of 56	28%	21 of 63	0 of 7	0%	1:13
2	Nasrat Haqparast	37 of 80	46%	47 of 91	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Jared Gordon	55 of 88	62%	79 of 120	0 of 1	0%	1:34
3	Nasrat Haqparast	74 of 172	43%	74 of 173	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Jared Gordon	70 of 155	45%	70 of 155	0 of 5	0%	0:02

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Nasrat Haqparast	146 of 316	46%	122 of 288	23 of 27	1 of 1	133 of 298	8 of 10	5 of 8
Jared Gordon	141 of 299	47%	125 of 275	12 of 19	4 of 5	128 of 274	13 of 25	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Nasrat Haqparast	35 of 64	54%	27 of 55	8 of 9	0 of 0	30 of 56	0 of 0	5 of 8
1	Jared Gordon	16 of 56	28%	11 of 48	2 of 4	3 of 4	14 of 50	2 of 6	0 of 0
2	Nasrat Haqparast	37 of 80	46%	27 of 68	10 of 12	0 of 0	30 of 71	7 of 9	0 of 0
2	Jared Gordon	55 of 88	62%	49 of 81	6 of 7	0 of 0	44 of 70	11 of 18	0 of 0
3	Nasrat Haqparast	74 of 172	43%	68 of 165	5 of 6	1 of 1	73 of 171	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Jared Gordon	70 of 155	45%	65 of 146	4 of 8	1 of 1	70 of 154	0 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Jared Gordon vs. Nasrat Haqparast
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Haqparast (-238), Gordon (+195)

Round 1
Haqparast and Gordon do not touch gloves before going at it. Rich Mitchell is your referee. Haqparast is southpaw, Gordon orthodox, and Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence, picking up a single-leg. He elevates the leg, but instead of finishing the takedown, uses his free hand to punch Haqparast’s face. Gordon lets the leg go, but scoops up another single-leg seconds later, and again uses the chance to land strikes rather than bring the fight to the floor. He loses the leg and Haqparast sticks him with a hard left. Haqparast lands another hard left, and Gordon drops levels for a takedown. This time it looks like a serious attempt, as he runs Haqparast to the fence, but Haqparast keeps his feet under him. They disengage and return to the center of the Octagon. Gordon shoots for another takedown, and again they end up against the fence. Haqparast again defends ably, and after they break, he nails Gordon with a solid right jab. Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence and they trade shots up the middle. Haqparast gets the better of it, smacking Gordon with a three-piece that hurts him. Gordon seems to recover, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast

Round 2
Haqparast scores first, with a hard overhand left that glances off the shoulder but still gets some of Gordon’s head. Gordon marches forward, but his face is showing the wear of trying to get past Haqparast’s righty jab. Gordon drops for a takedown, but Haqparast defends capably. Gordon marches forward, backing Haqparast to the cage, and nails him with two good punches before Haqparast can slide out the side. Gordon walks Haqparast down against the fence and mugs him with punches again. Haqparast is bleeding from under the left eye. There is a brief break in the action as Gordon’s left glove is losing tape. They go back to work, and Gordon feints a level change to open him up for a pair of punches upstairs. Haqparast returns fire, and both men are getting their shots in. Gordon backs Haqparast up to the fence and blasts him with punches to the body. Haqparast tries to get back to space, but Gordon’s pressure is stifling him. With 30 seconds to go, they clinch against the fence. They separate and Haqparast lands a good right to the chin before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
Haqparast and Gordon do not touch gloves before going at it. Rich Mitchell is your referee. Haqparast is southpaw, Gordon orthodox, and Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence, picking up a single-leg. He elevates the leg, but instead of finishing the takedown, uses his free hand to punch Haqparast’s face. Gordon lets the leg go, but scoops up another single-leg seconds later, and again uses the chance to land strikes rather than bring the fight to the floor. He loses the leg and Haqparast sticks him with a hard left. Haqparast lands another hard left, and Gordon drops levels for a takedown. This time it looks like a serious attempt, as he runs Haqparast to the fence, but Haqparast keeps his feet under him. They disengage and return to the center of the Octagon. Gordon shoots for another takedown, and again they end up against the fence. Haqparast again defends ably, and after they break, he nails Gordon with a solid right jab. Gordon shoves Haqparast to the fence and they trade shots up the middle. Haqparast gets the better of it, smacking Gordon with a three-piece that hurts him. Gordon seems to recover, and the horn sounds. Haqparast scores first, with a hard overhand left that glances off the shoulder but still gets some of Gordon’s head. Gordon marches forward, but his face is showing the wear of trying to get past Haqparast’s righty jab. Gordon drops for a takedown, but Haqparast defends capably. Gordon marches forward, backing Haqparast to the cage, and nails him with two good punches before Haqparast can slide out the side. Gordon walks Haqparast down against the fence and mugs him with punches again. Haqparast is bleeding from under the left eye. There is a brief break in the action as Gordon’s left glove is losing tape. They go back to work, and Gordon feints a level change to open him up for a pair of punches upstairs. Haqparast returns fire, and both men are getting their shots in. Gordon backs Haqparast up to the fence and blasts him with punches to the body. Haqparast tries to get back to space, but Gordon’s pressure is stifling him. With 30 seconds to go, they clinch against the fence. They separate and Haqparast lands a good right to the chin before the round ends. Neither man gives any quarter in the opening moments, standing toe-to-toe and swinging away. Haqparast’s fast hands show out, as he tags Gordon with a clean southpaw one-two. Gordon changes levels and drags Haqparast to the floor, but Haqparast refuses to concede the takedown, popping right back to his feet. Gordon marches forward, landing his jab on Haqparast and backing him up. Gordon is relentless, walking down the younger man, and mixing in level changes to keep him guessing. Haqparast lands a clean jab and Gordon returns fire with a hook to the head. Haqparast hits Gordon with a short punch to the body. Gordon comes back with a left hand upstairs. Under a minute to go and it still feels like anyone’s fight. Both men are battered and exhausted. They clinch and Haqparast scores with a short elbow inside. They separate and exchange a flurry of punches. The final horn sounds on what is, so far, easily the best fight of the night.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Haqparast (29-28 Haqparast)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (29-28 Gordon)

The Official Result
Nasrat Haqparast def. Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Nasrat Haqparast

Angelo picks Nasrat, highlighting his high volume striking (6 significant strikes per minute) and solid takedown defense (78%). He notes Nasrat has power, durability, and can push a pace. He thinks Jared Gordon is sneaky good but Nasrat is the better overall fighter. He is confident in Nasrat winning straightforwardly.

"nazat lands six significant strikes per minute and that seems like a giant number... nazat though I think is just the better overall Fighter"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Nasrat Haqparast

Big Brady picks Nasrat Haqparast to win by second-round knockout, citing his volume and sneaky power. He questions Jared Gordon's chin, noting he has been knocked out multiple times. Brady believes Haqparast's striking will overwhelm Gordon, and if Gordon's durability holds, it could be close, but he expects a finish before that.

win by second round knockout

"I'm going to take hack brast here I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Nasrat Haqparast

Cody picks Haqparast, citing his size, boxing, and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Gordon's wrestling is less effective at 155 and that Haqparast should outpoint him. However, he warns that the line is steep and the fight could be close.

"I gota go with Nasrat Haqparast"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Nasrat Haqparast

Daniel Vreeland picks Nasrat Haqparast confidently, highlighting his improved output and power in his left hand. He notes Gordon's durability and top control but believes Haqparast's speed, power, and athleticism will be the difference. He sees Haqparast as hitting his peak and winning a decision or knockout.

"I'm gonna pick nazat hakaras to win this fight"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Nasrat Haqparast

Jacob picks Nasrat, calling him better everywhere with superb striking and defensive wrestling. He believes Nasrat can weather Gordon's storm and that the -240 moneyline is good value. He respects Gordon's journey but thinks Nasrat is the better fighter.

"I believe that nazat hack barass should be just about better everywhere... I believe that minus 240 money line is one of the better values on this card"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Nasrat Haqparast

JP picks Nasrat, noting his 3-fight win streak and better competition, though he worries about Nasrat's decision-making on the feet. He expects a close fight but favors Nasrat's clinch game and pressure. Brevan is more confident, predicting a KO/TKO via Nasrat's powerful overhand left. He criticizes Gordon's recent performances and believes Nasrat will out-strike him and get a finish. Both see Nasrat winning, with Brevan specifically calling for a stoppage.

Nasrat by KO/TKO

"I'm gonna go nazrat KO TKO"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Nasrat Haqparast

Paul picks Haqparast but is hesitant due to the price. He notes Haqparast's takedown defense is okay and his striking is solid, but Gordon could make it competitive with wrestling. Paul expects a close decision.

"I don't love laying minus 240 with hack press I do see a world in which this is really close"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Nasrat Haqparast

The MMA Guru picks Nasrat Haqparast over Jared Gordon, believing Haqparast is the better boxer and will stuff takedowns. He notes that Gordon is not a dominant grappler and that Haqparast's recent first-round TKO shows his power. He expects Haqparast to box Gordon up as the fight goes on, possibly losing the first round but winning the next two.

"I'm going to go Nazar ha prast here over Jared Gordon um I do I think and this is really annoying to me because it the problem with Jared Gordon is and nazra haar is their existence changes my opinion …"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Mark Madsen

TKO (elbow and punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jared Gordon	1	36 of 66	54%	54 of 87	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:19
Mark Madsen	0	35 of 57	61%	46 of 69	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:04

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Jared Gordon	1	36 of 66	54%	54 of 87	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:19
1	Mark Madsen	0	35 of 57	61%	46 of 69	0 of 0	---	0	0	1:04

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jared Gordon	36 of 66	54%	27 of 57	5 of 5	4 of 4	22 of 51	10 of 11	4 of 4
Mark Madsen	35 of 57	61%	23 of 44	12 of 13	0 of 0	16 of 37	19 of 20	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jared Gordon	36 of 66	54%	27 of 57	5 of 5	4 of 4	22 of 51	10 of 11	4 of 4
1	Mark Madsen	35 of 57	61%	23 of 44	12 of 13	0 of 0	16 of 37	19 of 20	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Angelo leans Gordon, reasoning that Gordon's striking is better and he can outwrestle Madsen by implementing his own game plan. He notes Madsen is one-dimensional and older, and Gordon trains with good wrestlers. He is not fully confident due to Gordon's age.

"I am going to lean Jared Gordon here and I think he could sneak something out."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon by decision. He thinks Gordon has a significant striking advantage, with fast hands and high volume, and better cardio. He notes Madsen is 39 and may need to resort to wrestling, but Gordon has solid takedown defense and get-up game. Brady worries about Gordon's chin but doesn't think Madsen can knock him out.

Gordon by decision

"I'm gonna take Jared Gordon here to win this fight and this probably goes to decision so Jared Gordon by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon but is hesitant, suggesting a live bet might be better. He thinks Madsen will win the first round with wrestling but gas out, allowing Gordon to take over. He notes Gordon's durability and pace, but doesn't like the pre-fight line.

"I'm gonna take Gordon but I think you'll get the better number live"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Gordon's pace, pressure, and ability to dictate the fight will be the difference. Madsen may have early grappling success, but Gordon's BJJ background will allow him to get back to his feet and overwhelm Madsen with better striking. Expects a close fight early but Gordon to put together a better body of work in the last two rounds and win by decision.

"I believe that Gordon's Pace pressure and ability to dictate the pace will be the Difference Maker in this matchup"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Mark Madsen

Paul leans Madsen as a dog, having taken him at +167. He thinks Madsen's wrestling pedigree will allow him to get takedowns and control early rounds. He acknowledges Madsen's cardio issues but believes he can win the first two rounds. He notes Gordon isn't a potent finisher.

"I took plus 167 took a shot on Madson"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling Mark Madsen awful. He thinks Gordon is underrated and showed improved striking against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He believes Gordon is more versatile and better on the feet, and that Madsen has no offensive grappling or striking threat.

"I think Mark madson's awful I think he's awful I really do... I think Jared Gordon's pretty underrated"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs King Green

No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R1 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
King Green	0	23 of 69	33%	23 of 69	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:01
Jared Gordon	0	17 of 53	32%	17 of 53	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	King Green	0	23 of 69	33%	23 of 69	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:01
1	Jared Gordon	0	17 of 53	32%	17 of 53	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
King Green	23 of 69	33%	15 of 56	6 of 9	2 of 4	17 of 62	0 of 1	6 of 6
Jared Gordon	17 of 53	32%	9 of 34	5 of 11	3 of 8	17 of 53	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	King Green	23 of 69	33%	15 of 56	6 of 9	2 of 4	17 of 62	0 of 1	6 of 6
1	Jared Gordon	17 of 53	32%	9 of 34	5 of 11	3 of 8	17 of 53	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)

King Green

Angelo picks Bobby Green confidently, citing his superior striking and 72% takedown defense. He notes that Green has been tested by top lightweights and even in his recent loss to Drew Dober, he won the first round. He thinks Jared Gordon is undersized for lightweight and lacks one-punch knockout power, making Green a safe parlay piece.

"Bobby all day he's gonna be the much better Striker... Bobby is the pick and I think he's a safe parlay piece."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

King Green

Big Brady picks Bobby Green to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Green is a much better striker than Gordon, who has only fought grapplers in his career. Green has incredible takedown defense and good wrestling, so Gordon's path to victory is limited. Brady expects Green to put a ton of volume on Gordon, hurt him, and knock him out early. He also mentions that Gordon has been knocked out five times before and that the judges could screw up a decision, so he prefers the finish.

first round knockout

"I'm actually going to take Bobby green to win this fight by knockout I think he's going to put it on Jared Gordon very early and I think Bobby green knocks him out within the first round"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green despite the high price, praising his elite boxing, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Green's ability to outwork opponents and his durability, having only been knocked out by top power punchers. Cody believes Green's volume and pressure will be too much for Jared Gordon, who has a questionable chin and has been knocked out by lesser power punchers. He even suggests a Green by KO prop, as Gordon tends to get hit a lot.

Bobby Green by KO

"I will be picking Bobby green but at mine is 255. you know if Jared Gordon lands a shot and Bobby green starts going like uh shaking his head no no no that didn't hurt me"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)

King Green

Connor picks Green, emphasizing that Green is a superior athlete and technician. He notes that Gordon's best win was against Danny Chavez, but Green is a much tougher puzzle. He points out that Green has been schooling tough opponents and that Gordon's lack of speed and power will be exposed. He also mentions that Gordon's mental game might be off after the Pimblett fight.

"I have to pick King green here."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)

King Green

Bobby Green is the better striker with a significant speed advantage. His takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, where he can pick apart Jared Gordon with combinations. Gordon may have success pushing Green against the cage, but Green's footwork and movement should allow him to escape and land shots at distance. Green is motivated after a knockout loss to Drew Dober and could finish Gordon, who has shown durability issues. Green by knockout in round 2 or 3.

Green by KO in round 2 or 3

"Bobby green normally just a decision machine has the potential to land a knockout in this fight considering the striking advantage and speed advantage... I'm going to say Bobby Green Round Two or round three by knockout"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)

King Green

Paul also picks Bobby Green, arguing he should be an even bigger favorite. He highlights Green's elite boxing, footwork, and ability to avoid takedowns, noting that no one has submitted him in the UFC. Paul believes Green's volume and pressure will overwhelm Gordon, who has a weak chin and has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He thinks Green could even get a knockout.

"I think you should be a bigger favorite as far as I'm concerned I think he wins this fight fairly handily Bobby green is an elite level fighter"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)

King Green

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green despite his recent KO loss. He argues Green's takedown defense is good and he is levels above Paddy Pimblett on the feet, whom Gordon struggled with. He thinks Green will stuff takedowns and land at will, dominating on the feet. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26.

decision

"I'm gonna go with Bobby green over Jared Gordon... I think if you even make it look close against pimlet you ain't really that good"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)

King Green

Zane picks Green confidently, noting that Green is a slick, creative striker with excellent defensive wrestling. He points out that Gordon's best chance is to pressure and grind, but Green has shown he can handle that and counter effectively. He also mentions that Gordon lacks knockout power and that Green's recent performances show he's assertive and accurate.

"I have to pick King green here."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Paddy Pimblett

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Paddy Pimblett	0	63 of 155	40%	97 of 194	0 of 3	0%	0	0	0:35
Jared Gordon	0	60 of 103	58%	100 of 143	3 of 6	50%	0	0	6:28

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Paddy Pimblett	29 of 70	41%	29 of 70	0 of 1	0%	0:00
1	Jared Gordon	32 of 53	60%	40 of 61	0 of 1	0%	0:28
2	Paddy Pimblett	28 of 70	40%	47 of 89	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Jared Gordon	24 of 46	52%	39 of 61	1 of 2	50%	2:07
3	Paddy Pimblett	6 of 15	40%	21 of 35	0 of 2	0%	0:35
3	Jared Gordon	4 of 4	100%	21 of 21	2 of 3	66%	3:53

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Paddy Pimblett	63 of 155	40%	33 of 122	13 of 16	17 of 17	54 of 139	8 of 15	1 of 1
Jared Gordon	60 of 103	58%	32 of 62	14 of 27	14 of 14	53 of 94	5 of 6	2 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Paddy Pimblett	29 of 70	41%	16 of 55	2 of 4	11 of 11	28 of 69	0 of 0	1 of 1
1	Jared Gordon	32 of 53	60%	17 of 28	7 of 17	8 of 8	30 of 50	0 of 0	2 of 3
2	Paddy Pimblett	28 of 70	40%	13 of 54	11 of 12	4 of 4	24 of 64	4 of 6	0 of 0
2	Jared Gordon	24 of 46	52%	13 of 32	5 of 8	6 of 6	20 of 41	4 of 5	0 of 0
3	Paddy Pimblett	6 of 15	40%	4 of 13	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 6	4 of 9	0 of 0
3	Jared Gordon	4 of 4	100%	2 of 2	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 3	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Jared Gordon vs. Paddy Pimblett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pimblett (-250), Gordon (+210)

Round 1
The co-main event for this pay-per-view card is an unranked lightweight affair between boisterous Liverpudlian Pimblett (19-3, 3-0 UFC) and his relatively soft-spoken counterpart Gordon (19-5, 7-4 UFC). The UFC wants a star out of Pimblett, and they are building him up in a measured manner instead of throwing him to the top-ranked wolves. Many view Gordon as the next step up in competition. The third man in the Octagon for this pairing is referee Herb Dean, and they do decide to touch gloves even after some back-and-forth between the two. Pimblett crowds the American and kicks the side early, and he fires off a head kick and strings several punches together as Gordon shells up. Gordon, seemingly the smaller man by a wide margin, leaps forward to belt Pimblett in the face with a left hand. Pimblett wears it well and gets rocked with a left hand, and he is retreating as Gordon advances. Pimblett, with his head high and a tall stance, absorbs another left hand and a low kick to mix things up. The two trade leg kicks, with Gordon putting his hips into them as Pimblett resets and fires one off to respond. Gordon sticks “The Baddy” with two more left hooks, and Pimblett darts away and recovers to score two punches. In a flash, “Flash” rocks Pimblett with an overhand right, and he walks through a calf kick to get off another left. Pimblett lines several punches up one after the other, and Gordon blocks some while others split his guard. Pimblett ducks low to avoid a looping punch buzzing his way, and he swats away the arms before Gordon can slug him again. Pimblett jabs and flips out two high kicks in rapid succession, and Gordon keeps his guard high to defend the rest that follows. Gordon absorbs part of a jumping high kick, and he responds with a body kick and a left hook. Pimblett has two punches and a kick bounce off the guard, but his left hand gets through. Gordon does not slow, connecting with a big left and a calf kick. Pimblett pushes Gordon back with a head kick that is blocked, only for Gordon to respond with power. Gordon gets stung with a counter and ducks down for a single, but Pimblett slithers his leg away in time. Gordon marches his man down and lands a left hand, and he counters a takedown by push Pimblett flat on his back. Pimblett threatens with a high guard that does not turn into anything, while Gordon lands a few punches before the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 2
Gordon claims the center of the cage and advances to throw hands, while Pimblett keeps his range and tosses out high kicks. Pimblett lobs a right hook that skims off the guard, and Gordon chips at the calf a few times. Pimblett gets a head kick through, and he is answered by two swarming punches from his foe. Gordon absorbs a body kick and then takes a front kick so he can close in and club Pimblett in the face with a left, but Pimblett sticks and moves. The Brit sneaks in an uppercut as Gordon gives chase, and Gordon checks a kick and tries to initiate a brawl. Pimblett gets the worst of the exchange and tries to escape out the back door, and he gets his chin checked with a powerful left hook. Gordon grabs hold of a single, and when he puts Pimblett down, Pimblett defends with an arm-triangle choke that is a sort of a side-naked choke, but Gordon is calm and does not fall into danger. Pimblett walks up the cage wall, and short offense on the inside opens a cut on the hairline of “Flash.” Gordon attempts another takedown, and Pimblett stuffs it and punches Gordon in the back of the head repeatedly. Gordon stays pressed tightly to his man before suddenly breaking free and blasting Pimblett in the face with two punches. Gordon gets cracked with a right, but he fires off a left to back Pimblett off. A few Pimblett punches collide with the guard, and they trade low kicks until Gordon pushes forward in pursuit of a takedown. Pimblett defends against the wall and elbows the side of the head until Gordon bails on it, and Gordon grinds his man until Pimblett shoves him away. Pimblett unloads with two punches and sneaks up a head kick, but Gordon is right there to brawl away with him. Pimblett pushes off with his fingers out, and one jams into Gordon’s eye to cause a pause with 15 seconds left in the round. Pimblett receives a hard warning for his fingers stretching out or poking out, and they resume with a slugfest. Pimblett catches Gordon at the end of a right hand, and he loads up on a few punches and a front kick until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon

Round 3
The lightweights touch gloves to initiate the final frame, and Gordon advances while Pimblett defends a potential takedown. Gordon clasps his hands and dumps the Brit on his face, and Pimblett defends with a kimura. Pimblett climbs back up and is lifted with a knee, and he puts his hands on the mat to take knees on the jaw out of the equation. Gordon aggressively pursues a double, and Pimblett considers a front choke but cannot find the neck when Gordon switches things up for a single. The grind is firmly embraced by “Flash,” who settles for heavy shoulder pressure and takedown tries, while Pimblett is stifled to little more than an elbow or a knee. Gordon suddenly changes levels for a double, and this fails as Pimblett elbows him in the back of the head. Dean calls for the fighters to work, and Pimblett explodes to break away. Gordon scores a left hook, and he powers forward with a second before jamming Pimblett up against the wire. Gordon squeezes and clings to the Brit, and he trips Pimblett out to his knees but cannot ground him. Gordon pursues a double, and he ends up settling to trip Pimblett out and dump him to the floor. Pimblett slides out the back door and looks to take dominant position, but Gordon bursts back upright as Pimblett holds onto him. Pimblett lands a short knee on the inside and gets wrenched to his knees, and Pimblett jumps on to take his back as the fight ends. We have reached the judges’ scorecards for the first time of the night, and scores could definitely go either way depending on how the second and third rounds were evaluated. Either way, the meteoric rise of Pimblett has definitely hit a speed bump in the form of “Flash” Gordon, win or lose.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gordon (30-27 Gordon)

The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Jared Gordon via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Paddy Pimblett

Angelo picks Pimblett, believing he is the better striker and grappler. He notes that Pimblett outgrappled Jordan Leavitt, who was considered a better grappler. However, he warns that Gordon has legit wrestling and could take Pimblett down and hold him there, as Leavitt took him down three times. He suggests the best bet is Pimblett inside the distance (decision no action) if the odds are reasonable.

Best bet: Pimblett inside the distance (decision no action) if odds are favorable.

"Patty's gonna be the better Striker better Grappler and he just needs to make sure he isn't just held on his back the whole time"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paddy Pimblett

Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett, citing his power and dangerous grappling, while noting Jared Gordon's poor durability and lack of finishing ability. He expects Pimblett to hurt Gordon on the feet or lock in a submission, likely in the second round. He does not agree with the -250 price but sees Pimblett as the more likely finisher.

Pimblett wins by second round submission (club and sub)

"I'm gonna take pimlic to win I'll say a second round like a club and sub and I think he gives Jared Gordon his sixth submission loss"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paddy Pimblett

Cody picks Paddy despite acknowledging he has been fading him in previous fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling, back-taking, and rear-naked choke are key, and that Paddy has a massive reach advantage. He notes Paddy's durability and wild style but believes Jared Gordon is not the guy to expose him. He expects Paddy to use grappling to grind out a decision or late submission.

"I still got a side with with Patty and I just think that is the gonna be the counter um grappling of Jared Gordon that I'll probably let them down"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Paddy Pimblett

Connor picks Pimblett, reasoning that Gordon is not a powerful striker and will fall into clinch scrambles where Pimblett is dangerous. He notes Gordon repeatedly gives up his back on the mat, and Pimblett is a skilled backtake artist. Connor is hesitant but believes Gordon's flaws will lead to a submission loss.

Odds: Pimblett opened +125, dropped to -170, now -259; Gordon opened -145, now +208.

"I'll pick Patty because the problem for Jared is he's not going to finish Patty on the feet and he is going to fall into him and something stupid is going to happen."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Paddy Pimblett

Daniel Levi picks Paddy Pimblett to win inside the distance, though he expects Jared Gordon to be competitive early. He notes Gordon's superior volume and top control, but believes Pimblett is a 'big moment fighter' who can turn the tide with a knockdown or submission. Levi thinks Gordon may win the first round or two, but Pimblett will eventually find a finish. He does not bet this fight, preferring to watch.

Picks Pimblett to win inside the distance. No bet placed.

"I got Patty to win this fight inside the distance after overcoming some very sketchy moments and possibly being down on cards"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)

Jared Gordon

Lock picks Jared Gordon as his dog of the night, believing his style will give Paddy fits. He thinks Gordon will keep his foot on the gas, push the pace, box, and grind out a decision, as long as he stays conscious. He notes that Paddy has faced adversity in every UFC fight but Gordon is the best fighter he's faced. Lock likes the betting line at +217 and sees a possible pump and dump on PredictionStrike at 80 cents, though he acknowledges Gordon has a ceiling.

dog of the night play

"I got shared Gordon as my dog of the Night play uh this weekend I I do think he has a style to give Patty the baddies some fits"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Paul leans towards Jared Gordon as a dog, having faded Paddy in all his UFC fights. He thinks Paddy's wrestling defense is suspect and he has been hurt in fights. He notes Gordon's skills and value at plus money, but is hesitant because Paddy has won close fights before. He is pot-committed to fading Paddy but acknowledges the risk.

"I'm such a sucker for it at some point I'm probably gonna end up with money on Jared Gordon I'm not gonna lie"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Paddy Pimblett

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett over Jared Gordon by rear-naked choke. He expects Gordon to be winning early with cage pressure, but Pimblett's speed and power will catch Gordon, leading to a scramble where Pimblett takes the back and chokes him out. He notes the odds are too wide and considers it a close fight, but believes Pimblett's finishing ability prevails.

Pimblett should be around -180, not -250; fight is close

"I'm gonna go with Paddy pimlet here and I'm gonna go with Paddy pimlic by real naked joke"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Paddy Pimblett

Zane reluctantly picks Pimblett, agreeing with Connor that Gordon will give up his back in scrambles. He notes Gordon is a better wrestler but Pimblett will let himself be taken down to create grappling exchanges. Zane is not confident, saying if Gordon loses it's his own fault.

Odds: Pimblett opened +125, now -259; Gordon opened -145, now +208.

"All right, fine. I'll take Patty Pimblett. I don't like it."

MMA Vivisection

View all 19 fights

Expert Picks (6)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Rafa Garcia plus three and a half might be the best bet here.

"I am going to pick Jared Gordon here. I have seen with my own eyes Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

Decision win; not in love with the price

"Give me Gordon here. Not in love with the price tag to be honest, but I think he wins the fight and wins it by decision."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

"I think that Gordon can repeat that kind of success because he's a much more dangerous fighter than Chris Gruetzemacher was."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

TKO late second round

"I'm going with Jared Gordon, the most underrated lightweight on the roster. ... I'm going to say Jared Gordon gets this one done by a TKO in the first or second round."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jared Gordon

"I think I have to pick Jared Gordon in that kind of fight. He is likely to land the bigger shots."

MMA Vivisection

Comments (1)

brian 8 months, 2 weeks ago

Jared was in a car accident a day before the fight. No mention of it till after the fight. Odds moved.

Rafa García

Jared Gordon

Career Averages - Rafa García

Career Averages - Jared Gordon

Rafa García

Jared Gordon

Rafa García - Fight History

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