UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 5"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 39
Height 5' 4"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Tatiana Suarez
2.95 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
1.58 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
4.41 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Amanda Lemos
2.75 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
3.01 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
64.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Tatiana Suarez
Moneyline
Betway -417
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +451
Submission
Cloudbet +179
Decision
Cloudbet +182
Amanda Lemos
KO/TKO
Cloudbet +1054
Submission
Cloudbet +1575
Decision
Cloudbet +1183
Tatiana Suarez - Fight History
WIN vs Loopy Godinez
Submission R2 2:29 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 12 of 26 46% 56 of 77 3 of 3 100% 1 0 5:12
Loopy Godinez 0 18 of 25 72% 25 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 13 53% 50 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:39
Loopy Godinez 0 17 of 22 77% 23 of 29 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:23
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:33
Loopy Godinez 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 12 of 26 46% 4 of 14 8 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 14 5 of 5 6 of 7
Loopy Godinez 18 of 25 72% 16 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 6 6 of 6 10 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 13 53% 4 of 7 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 7
Loopy Godinez 17 of 22 77% 15 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 5 10 of 13
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 13 38% 0 of 7 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 9 4 of 4 0 of 0
Loopy Godinez 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana Suarez despite finding her boring, citing her dominant wrestling and predictability. He acknowledges Loopy Godinez's skills and striking but criticizes her low fight IQ and poor decisions. He believes Loopy could win if she sticks to striking but expects her to make mistakes and end up on her back.

"If I was picking off only actual skills, Loopy's the pick, but I got to factor in the brain. So, unless I see footage of Loopy at a Kumon tutoring center, the pick's going to have to be Tatiana."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady is worried about Tatiana Suarez after her poor performances against Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos, noting she gassed and couldn't get dominant positions. He thinks Loopy Godinez has good takedown defense and superior striking with volume and boxing. He expects a close split decision and leans Godinez.

decision
"I'm going to lean with the dog here in Loopy Godinez to get it done. I'll take her to get it done by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody picks Godinez, citing Suarez's injuries, layoffs, and declining wrestling. He thinks Godinez's scrambling, boxing, and volume will earn her a decision win.

"I'm going to go the other way here. Take Loopy... I think Lupy's going to be landing the shots... she's going to edge out this decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Connor picks Suarez over three rounds, citing her superior wrestling and size. He notes that Suarez will get Godinez down and control her, as Godinez is also a wrestler but not at Suarez's level. He mentions that the fight should be five rounds to see if Godinez can survive and force Suarez to gas, but over three rounds it's a foregone conclusion.

Odds too wide; Suarez opened -225 now -150, Godinez opened +190 now +130. Should be -300/-400.
"I got to pick Suarez over three rounds to beat Lupita Godinas. She's just going to start too strong and Godinas isn't to finish her."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Loopy Godinez as an underdog, believing that Tatiana Suarez is in decline after injuries and poor performances. He thinks Godinez's wrestling can keep the fight standing and that she has better striking. He acknowledges Godinez's questionable in-fight decisions but sees value at plus money.

"I'm going to go Loopy sprawl and brawl keep this fight standing. She's got the wrestling to keep this standing. She's got better hands than Tatiana."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel believes Suarez is on a decline due to injuries and age, while Godinez has the wrestling to keep the fight standing and better hands. He picks Godinez to win by decision.

"I'm going to pick Lupy Godz to come out here and get this upset. Most likely unanimous decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

James picks the underdog Godinez, fading Suarez for the third time. He believes Suarez has declined and that Godinez can win a striking battle, though he acknowledges Suarez's size and fight IQ advantages.

"I am actually going to pick her to defeat Suarez as the underdog again."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez is the best wrestler in the division and should dominate Godinez on the ground. Godinez has a slight striking edge but her wrestling is not at Suarez's level. Suarez's size and reach advantage will help her close distance for takedowns. She can grind out a decision or find a submission. The line is surprisingly low for Suarez, offering value.

Suarez wins by decision
"I like Suarez here. ... I think Suarez will grind her out. I think she'll make it look fairly dominant as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Paul picks Suarez, believing her wrestling is still superior and she can control Godinez. He acknowledges her decline but thinks she has one more good performance.

"I'm going with Tatiana. Am I am I I do see, you know, since she came back from injury, frankly, I do see... I'm not picking against my girl Tatiana Suarez for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez over Tatiana Suarez, though he admits it's a questionable pick. He likes Godinez's scrambles and grappling defense, and thinks Suarez's stand-up is abysmal. He believes Godinez can eke out a 29-28 decision as a slight underdog, citing Suarez's injury history and potential 'loser energy' from her husband Patchy Mix.

"I'm going to go with Loopy Godinez. Um and I'm and I'm stupid for that."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez, agreeing that she will dominate early and Godinez won't be able to finish her. He notes that Suarez's wrestling is too strong and Godinez's boxing isn't good enough to keep her off. He also comments that the odds are too slim and should be wider in Suarez's favor.

Odds too slim; Suarez should be -300/-400.
"I'll take Suarez as well."
WIN vs Amanda Lemos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 20 of 39 51% 70 of 91 3 of 12 25% 0 0 9:34
Amanda Lemos 0 23 of 33 69% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 10 70% 25 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 14 35% 27 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:00
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 5 100% 16 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 8 of 15 53% 18 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:36
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 20 of 39 51% 1 of 11 10 of 17 9 of 11 9 of 24 11 of 15 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 23 of 33 69% 12 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 22 4 of 4 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 10 70% 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 6 83% 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 14 35% 1 of 7 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 6 4 of 8 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 5 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tatiana Suarez 8 of 15 53% 0 of 4 6 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 22 59% 11 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 12 3 of 3 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.

Could be a sneaky under two and a half type bet when those round lines drop.
"I'm definitely going to pick Tatiana. I think the wrestling is just going to be too hard to consistently stop."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.

Second round submission
"I'm going to take Suarez to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.

win by submission
"We should eventually see Suarez land those takedowns and work to a position where she can eventually incorporate a submission and force the tap from the Brazilian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"I'm going to have to go with Tatiana Suarez. I think Lemos's style of fighting ... will leave her more open to the grappling of Suarez."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 0 53 of 87 60% 232 of 299 1 of 3 33% 1 0 10:54
Tatiana Suarez 0 12 of 36 33% 63 of 95 1 of 15 6% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 1 of 2 50% 31 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:09
Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 23 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:08
2 Zhang Weili 0 10 of 17 58% 52 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 6 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:27
3 Zhang Weili 0 19 of 42 45% 33 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Tatiana Suarez 0 8 of 21 38% 9 of 22 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:44
4 Zhang Weili 0 7 of 7 100% 53 of 60 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:27
Tatiana Suarez 0 3 of 5 60% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Zhang Weili 0 16 of 19 84% 63 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:53
Tatiana Suarez 0 1 of 6 16% 7 of 14 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 53 of 87 60% 32 of 56 16 of 21 5 of 10 29 of 62 11 of 11 13 of 14
Tatiana Suarez 12 of 36 33% 1 of 16 2 of 6 9 of 14 10 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 10 of 17 58% 7 of 10 2 of 4 1 of 3 4 of 11 1 of 1 5 of 5
Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 19 of 42 45% 11 of 28 7 of 10 1 of 4 16 of 39 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tatiana Suarez 8 of 21 38% 0 of 7 2 of 5 6 of 9 6 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 7 of 7 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 3
Tatiana Suarez 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 16 of 19 84% 9 of 12 6 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 6 7 of 7 5 of 6
Tatiana Suarez 1 of 6 16% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be a level above Zhang Weili's. He notes that Zhang has been taken down easily by lesser grapplers like Yan Xiaonan and Rose Namajunas. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio, as she has never gone 25 minutes, but thinks she will get a submission in the second round. He predicts a second-round submission.

"I'm going to say Tatiana gets it done here I'm going to say she gets it done by second round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Connor picks Zhang, citing her striking advantage and Suarez's questionable cardio. He thinks Zhang can use her kicks and movement to keep Suarez at range and tire her out. He notes that Suarez has never faced a five-round fight and faded in the third round against Nina Nunes. He also points out that Zhang has good takedown defense and can get back to her feet. However, he admits he could see Suarez winning if she gets top position early.

Same odds as Zane. Connor implies Zhang is a live underdog.
"I am going to go ahead and pick Zhang. I'd be happy to be surprised."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi mentions the co-main event where Zhang Weili defends her belt against undefeated Tatiana Suarez. He notes that the fight is a dead pick at -110 each and asks the audience whether they think Zhang Weili retains or if Suarez becomes champion. He does not express a personal opinion or pick a winner.

"This fight is currently a dead picker minus 110 a piece do y'all think it's an still Jan way Lee or do y'all believe in destiny and fate that Tatiana sorus will come out there and become the new UFC …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez's smothering wrestling and improving BJJ are expected to open up a submission opportunity. Zhang has the striking advantage but will struggle to stop Suarez's chain wrestling and strength. Zhang's wrestling has improved but not enough to overcome Suarez. The pick is for Suarez to find the neck and force a submission.

submission
"I have to lean with Suarez here with her smothering wrestling approach and her improving BJJ game which I think will eventually open up a submission opportunity for her"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez despite acknowledging Zhang's advantages in striking and cardio. He believes Suarez's wrestling will be the difference, as Zhang tends to tie up and Suarez is a better wrestler. He is concerned about Suarez's cardio and lack of five-round experience, but thinks she can get a submission or control on top. He notes that Zhang's best path is to jab and kick from range, but he doubts she will do that consistently.

Suarez opened at +137, currently -113; Zhang opened at -153, currently +101. Zane mentions that Zhang underdog odds might be a bettors' take because she is battle-tested.
"I'm going to stick with my pick, but the cardio aspect of it is worth being very, very suspicious."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:31 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 11 of 29 37% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Jéssica Andrade 0 23 of 49 46% 25 of 51 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 11 of 27 40% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Jéssica Andrade 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:38
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Jéssica Andrade 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 11 of 29 37% 2 of 14 5 of 8 4 of 7 8 of 23 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 23 of 49 46% 3 of 20 17 of 26 3 of 3 13 of 36 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 11 of 27 40% 2 of 12 5 of 8 4 of 7 8 of 21 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 19 of 43 44% 3 of 18 14 of 23 2 of 2 9 of 30 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 4 of 6 66% 0 of 2 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo is extremely confident in Tatiana Suarez, calling her a lock and saying she should be -1000. He highlights Suarez's high-level wrestling, averaging over six takedowns per 15 minutes, and her submission win over Montana De la Rosa after a four-year layoff. He notes that Andrade relies on bullying and power, but Suarez won't be bullied and will get takedowns. Angelo suggests parlaying Suarez before the line moves and expects a submission win, possibly under 2.5 rounds.

Parlay Suarez, under 2.5 rounds, win by submission
"Tatiana Suarez is -450 she should be minus one thousand I'm telling you parlay Tatiana Suarez now before the line takes off"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady is a big Andrade fan but thinks this is a terrible matchup for her. He notes Andrade's defensive grappling is poor, as seen against Valentina and Blanchfield, and suspects she may be focused on OnlyFans and just showing up for a paycheck. He believes Suarez will take her down easily and dominate on the mat, finishing her in the first round. He is surprised money is coming in on Andrade.

Suarez wins in round 1; Suarez by submission or TKO
"I think sephores goes out there and dominates andrage and finishes her in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Cody is confident Suarez will get takedowns with ease and likely secure a submission, referencing Andrade's poor guard retention and tendency to quit when taken down. He notes Suarez's full camp and Andrade's short notice, but acknowledges Andrade's danger on the feet. He likes Suarez by submission at +125.

Suarez by submission +125
"I see a plus 125 out there I haven't bet it yet but like that's how I see this fight playing out"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Daniel Levi picks Tatiana Suarez, emphasizing her wrestling and physicality as a nightmare matchup for Andrade. He notes Andrade's durability has waned and that she gives up her back to get up, which Suarez can exploit. Levi expects Suarez to get a takedown that Andrade can't escape, leading to a finish via ground and pound or rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Andrade's power and offensive submissions but believes Suarez's relentless wrestling will be decisive.

Mentions that props like submission, TKO, inside the distance will be popular, but does not specify a bet. Also notes sharp action on Suarez.
"I do think that Tatiana is gonna get that final takedown where she where Jessica can't get up and whether it's ground and pound whether it's a the back and a rear naked chill."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

James is uncertain due to Suarez's long layoff and potential athletic decline seen in her last fight. He acknowledges Suarez should dominate if she's anywhere near her old self, but there are red flags. He picks Suarez to win but wouldn't bet her at -400; he'd bet inside the distance for either fighter.

inside the distance for either fighter
"I'm definitely picking Suarez and I'm gonna say she gets a submission in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez is the far superior wrestler and should get the fight to the ground easily. From top position, it's a matter of time before she finds a finish, either by submission or TKO. I like the inside the distance prop around -150, or the under 2.5 rounds if skeptical. If Suarez can't get the takedown, she might look lost on the feet, but I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds with Suarez winning by the second round.

inside the distance -150, under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind targeting the inside the distance around -150 or if you're just skeptical about the fight overall I don't mind the under two and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Paul agrees with the submission pick, citing Andrade's history of tapping quickly when taken down (e.g., Blanchfield fight). He notes Suarez's wrestling is elite but has ring rust and a poor striking performance against Montana De la Rosa. However, he believes Suarez will smother Andrade and get a rear-naked choke late in the second round.

Suarez by submission (rear-naked choke)
"I'm actually going to agree with you I think the rear naked choke opens itself up sometime late in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host is very high on Tatiana Suarez, calling her the future champion. He believes her wrestling and grappling will dominate Andrade, similar to the Blanchfield fight. He predicts a submission win before the end of the second round. He notes Andrade is dangerous with power but Suarez is naturally larger and has a huge grappling advantage. He sees Suarez as a parlay piece but warns about women's MMA variance.

submission win before end of round 2; line opened -476, now -400; parlay piece
"I think that she'll probably end up submitting her uh similarly to the blanchfield fight before the end of the second round"
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:51 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 10 of 13 76% 37 of 43 2 of 6 33% 1 0 5:45
Montana De La Rosa 0 5 of 11 45% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 8 87% 26 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:26
Montana De La Rosa 0 4 of 8 50% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 3 of 5 60% 11 of 13 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:19
Montana De La Rosa 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 10 of 13 76% 0 of 1 8 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 5 7 of 8 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 8 87% 0 of 1 6 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 3 of 5 60% 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Suarez because De La Rosa will let her wrestle. He notes that De La Rosa is a competitive fighter but lacks strategy, and if Suarez is the same fighter, she will do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able. Connor also mentions that De La Rosa's tight pocket boxing style gives opportunities for opponents to get in on her hips, which Suarez can exploit.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I will just simply assume that she's gonna look like Tatiana Suarez and if she does she is going to get a fight where she gets to do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez, assuming she will look like her old self and dominate with wrestling. He notes that De La Rosa is a classic test fighter who will accept whatever fight her opponent wants, and if Suarez can bring physical dominance, she will win. However, he acknowledges major X-factors: Suarez hasn't fought in almost four years, has neck and knee injuries that could affect her wrestling, and her striking is poor. Still, he believes she will get the takedowns she wants.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I gotta pick Tatiana Sargas I think she's gonna get the game she's gonna get the fight she wants she's gonna get the chances to take get the takedown she wants but this is all about how you know how …"
WIN vs Nina Nunes
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Jun 08, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 75 of 142 52% 95 of 166 4 of 13 30% 0 0 8:16
Nina Nunes 0 48 of 99 48% 54 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 17 of 30 56% 28 of 43 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:38
Nina Nunes 0 3 of 6 50% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 25 of 39 64% 34 of 50 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:20
Nina Nunes 0 15 of 30 50% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 33 of 73 45% 33 of 73 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
Nina Nunes 0 30 of 63 47% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 75 of 142 52% 29 of 85 22 of 29 24 of 28 42 of 100 7 of 7 26 of 35
Nina Nunes 48 of 99 48% 31 of 66 15 of 26 2 of 7 39 of 89 4 of 5 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 17 of 30 56% 8 of 20 7 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 22
Nina Nunes 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Tatiana Suarez 25 of 39 64% 14 of 23 6 of 10 5 of 6 11 of 23 3 of 3 11 of 13
Nina Nunes 15 of 30 50% 9 of 19 5 of 7 1 of 4 10 of 25 3 of 3 2 of 2
3 Tatiana Suarez 33 of 73 45% 7 of 42 9 of 12 17 of 19 29 of 69 4 of 4 0 of 0
Nina Nunes 30 of 63 47% 19 of 41 10 of 19 1 of 3 29 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
WIN vs Carla Esparza
TKO (punches and elbows) R3 4:33 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 6 of 10 60% 12 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:04
Carla Esparza 0 82 of 98 83% 136 of 155 9 of 11 81% 0 0 12:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 0 of 1 0% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carla Esparza 0 34 of 41 82% 56 of 65 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:37
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:04
Carla Esparza 0 15 of 17 88% 31 of 34 4 of 6 66% 0 0 4:11
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Carla Esparza 0 33 of 40 82% 49 of 56 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 6 of 10 60% 1 of 5 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 3 6 of 7 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 82 of 98 83% 64 of 77 15 of 18 3 of 3 6 of 11 6 of 8 70 of 79
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 34 of 41 82% 27 of 33 6 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 30 of 35
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 6 83% 1 of 2 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 5 of 5 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 15 of 17 88% 9 of 11 6 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4 4 of 4 9 of 9
3 Tatiana Suarez 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0
Carla Esparza 33 of 40 82% 28 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 2 31 of 35
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:44 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · May 19, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 6 of 8 75% 21 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 2 of 9 22% 4 of 11 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 6 of 8 75% 21 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 2 of 9 22% 4 of 11 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 6 of 8 75% 4 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 4 2 of 2
Alexa Grasso 2 of 9 22% 1 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 6 of 8 75% 4 of 5 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 4 of 4 2 of 2
Alexa Grasso 2 of 9 22% 1 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 42 of 73 57% 51 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:04
Gillian Robertson 0 12 of 26 46% 64 of 81 3 of 7 42% 0 2 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 25 of 37 67% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 15 33% 9 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:38
2 Amanda Lemos 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Gillian Robertson 0 2 of 3 66% 26 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 8 62% 29 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 42 of 73 57% 31 of 61 8 of 8 3 of 4 27 of 57 2 of 2 13 of 14
Gillian Robertson 12 of 26 46% 5 of 12 2 of 4 5 of 10 10 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 25 of 37 67% 18 of 29 6 of 6 1 of 2 12 of 23 1 of 1 12 of 13
Gillian Robertson 5 of 15 33% 2 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 6 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 10 of 19 52% 7 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gillian Robertson 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 8 62% 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.

"I'm a little nervous, but I do think Jillian wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.

"Give me Gillian Robertson to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.

"I'm probably just going to not have the coonies to take the dog play and take Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"I got to pick her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"my official prediction boys will be Jillian Robinson gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.

Lemos by KO
"I'm going to go with the Brazilian here. I know she's getting up there in age... Lemos has enough defensive grappling to shut that down from Robertson, keep this in the striking game and eventually find that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

"Julian Robertson's a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.

Prediction: submission in the second round
"I'm going to go with Gillian Robertson getting this one done by submission in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"Yeah, I think I'm leaning Robertson. I mean, it's very clearly a fight where she could get nuked, but she could just hold it together."
CANCEL vs Gillian Robertson
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"Gillian Robertson's the pick for me as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.

Odds: Lemos +170 underdog. Connor feels the line is long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I think she has unlike Lamo. She has continued to improve... but there is a conspicuous lack of meaningful athletic talent on her under her wind column."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.

"My official prediction boys will be Julian Robinson. Gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"G Rob by decision for me."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.

Odds: Robertson opened -110, now -200; Lemos opened -110, now +170. Zane notes the line feels long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I'm gonna pick my mush. I'm gonna stick with the idea that there's just a ceiling to Robertson's game that she imposes on herself."
LOSS vs Tatiana Suarez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 20 of 39 51% 70 of 91 3 of 12 25% 0 0 9:34
Amanda Lemos 0 23 of 33 69% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 10 70% 25 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 14 35% 27 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:00
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 5 100% 16 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 8 of 15 53% 18 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:36
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 20 of 39 51% 1 of 11 10 of 17 9 of 11 9 of 24 11 of 15 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 23 of 33 69% 12 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 22 4 of 4 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 10 70% 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 6 83% 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 14 35% 1 of 7 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 6 4 of 8 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 5 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tatiana Suarez 8 of 15 53% 0 of 4 6 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 22 59% 11 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 12 3 of 3 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.

Could be a sneaky under two and a half type bet when those round lines drop.
"I'm definitely going to pick Tatiana. I think the wrestling is just going to be too hard to consistently stop."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.

Second round submission
"I'm going to take Suarez to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.

win by submission
"We should eventually see Suarez land those takedowns and work to a position where she can eventually incorporate a submission and force the tap from the Brazilian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"I'm going to have to go with Tatiana Suarez. I think Lemos's style of fighting ... will leave her more open to the grappling of Suarez."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 12 of 21 57% 30 of 42 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:58
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 16 25% 40 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 4 0% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:41
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 3 0% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 4 50% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 9 44% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 12 of 21 57% 8 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 6
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 16 25% 2 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 7 of 12 58% 4 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Connor is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think I have to pick Limo. I think so too. I mean, the prospect of staying at long range and waiting and hoping to time a man to lamos, yeah, is a fundamentally dangerous proposition."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.

Lucindo via submission at +550 (BetOnline); also decision win possible
"I have to side with Yasmin lendo here she's got better fight IQ she has more ways to win CU she can compete in the strike and if she stays at range but she can win via submiss and win …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Zane is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think this is actually a case where she is too young and raw for this fighter right now and she does not look like yeah, any of the fighters that have beat Amanda Lamos in the past several years."
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Submission (armbar) R2 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 2 of 9 22% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:51
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 8 25% 20 of 27 1 of 5 20% 4 1 6:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
Amanda Lemos 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:42
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 8 12% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 7 28% 12 of 18 0 of 4 0% 2 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 2 of 9 22% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 2 of 8 25% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 2 of 7 28% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.

waiting for prop bets, especially takedown line
"I've got to pick Verna here this is definitely a steep test it'll be her first five round fight at first Main Event she is Affordable at even money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.

"I'm gonna chase the other side and go Verna."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.

"I'm GNA lean with Verna janida because I do think she's going to have that early um upside you know in terms of getting those takedowns in terms of those near submission attempts possibly getting a submission attempt and wearing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.

submission
"I'm going to say jandi Roba by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.

"I'm kind of tempted by Amanda Lemos in this spot... close to a pick 'em fight but give me Amanda Lemos at plus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.

"I'll go jander Roba I'll Trust in a favorite here I'll go jandera"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 1 41 of 80 51% 47 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:02
Mackenzie Dern 0 21 of 54 38% 50 of 85 1 of 3 33% 0 2 6:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mackenzie Dern 0 8 of 22 36% 19 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:45
2 Amanda Lemos 1 24 of 51 47% 27 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:09
Mackenzie Dern 0 8 of 24 33% 11 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 6 100% 9 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:53
Mackenzie Dern 0 5 of 8 62% 20 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 41 of 80 51% 26 of 62 8 of 10 7 of 8 24 of 56 1 of 2 16 of 22
Mackenzie Dern 21 of 54 38% 21 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 1 13 of 42 0 of 1 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 11 of 23 47% 4 of 15 3 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 8 of 22 36% 8 of 20 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Amanda Lemos 24 of 51 47% 17 of 42 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 32 1 of 2 11 of 17
Mackenzie Dern 8 of 24 33% 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 1 8 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 6 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5
Mackenzie Dern 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.

"Amanda lamos is going to be the pick I think the odds at minus 125 based on the rant I just went on are fantastic odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.

Dern by submission
"I'm gonna take dur here as a dog as far as a pick goes I'll say she Subs lamos but I can't trust either of these Fighters"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.

"I like d as well but yeah I I don't even think I'm going to chase a prop on this one cuz um I see both pass to Victory..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.

"I'm staying away from this one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.

"we're going Lemos hard uh and and this is coming from maybe one of the preeminent uh McKenzie dur fans... I think LMO should be a negative 200 favorite here or better like negative 130 just not high enough I'm …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.

"lamos is is the pick good number on this fight as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.

"I expect her power to come through once again for her as she keeps D at Bay and eventually finds that knockout in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.

"I got D yeah."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos, calling her a dangerous power puncher and criticizing Mackenzie Dern's striking as nonexistent. He believes Lemos will have improved her grappling defense after being dominated by Zhang Weili. He predicts a brutal TKO stoppage in round one, stating Dern has never practiced striking for MMA.

"Amanda Lemos gets it done TKO... Dern has never practiced striking for MMA in her entire life."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Decision (unanimous) (50–43, 50–44, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 1 163 of 217 75% 296 of 358 6 of 7 85% 0 0 16:07
Amanda Lemos 0 24 of 63 38% 29 of 68 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 44 of 55 80% 74 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 16 of 20 80% 49 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:47
Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Zhang Weili 0 20 of 29 68% 31 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Zhang Weili 0 28 of 45 62% 28 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
5 Zhang Weili 1 55 of 68 80% 114 of 129 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 163 of 217 75% 106 of 150 37 of 42 20 of 25 50 of 77 17 of 18 96 of 122
Amanda Lemos 24 of 63 38% 19 of 57 3 of 4 2 of 2 23 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 44 of 55 80% 36 of 47 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 41 of 52
Amanda Lemos 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 16 of 20 80% 10 of 13 6 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 8 4 of 4 7 of 8
Amanda Lemos 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 20 of 29 68% 11 of 19 5 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 14 8 of 9 4 of 6
Amanda Lemos 5 of 12 41% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 28 of 45 62% 7 of 17 9 of 12 12 of 16 26 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 37 35% 11 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 55 of 68 80% 42 of 54 11 of 12 2 of 2 8 of 9 3 of 3 44 of 56
Amanda Lemos 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.

Parlay with Marlon Vera
"Wei Li Zhang is the pick one of the more confident picks and I have her in that parlay with Cheeto... I think she's going to get it done I think she's going to keep the belt."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.

win by KO, round 3
"I like Zhang Whaley here to win this fight I'll say third round knockout for Zhang Wei Lee"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.

over 3.5 rounds at +170; fight time over 15.5 minutes
"I think the champion Zang Yale goes out and does what she does best and that's just dominate I mean she's pretty much I always calls uh I don't always call but some Fighters are just generalists like they're generally …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.

Zhang by submission or ground and pound; -330 price is high but Zhang should get it done
"I think Zhang Wally is going to get her to the ground and finish her via submission or grounding pound"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.

moneyline at plus 250
"Amanda Lemos knocks out Wei Lee Jiang and she becomes the new strawweight champion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.

Zhang wins inside distance, under 3.5 rounds, under 4.5 rounds
"I'm going to take Wiley Zhang I think she wins this fight inside the distance I'm going to be targeting that specific prop in the spot as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.

"I'm going with Zhang Whaley over Amanda Lemos"
TKO (punches) R3 0:54 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 19 of 52 36% 44 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 53 54% 43 of 67 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 9 of 29 31% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 15 26% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 16 50% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 19 of 52 36% 6 of 26 3 of 8 10 of 18 18 of 51 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 29 of 53 54% 16 of 36 10 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 48 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 9 of 29 31% 1 of 9 1 of 5 7 of 15 8 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 18 61% 4 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 4 of 15 26% 1 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 8 of 16 50% 4 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 19 52% 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

this may be a mandala most win inside the distance decision no choking decision no action bet if a Mandela most wins by submission or knockout I'll get paid if she loses a decision which is the most likely outcome I'll get a full refund
"I do have Marina winning I think it's sort of the volume that does it but she needs to avoid the power stay Technical and beat Amanda the same way that Angela hill almost did"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Rodriguez wins by knockout in round 4
"I like Rodriguez here to win I'm gonna take her to win by fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Marina Rodriguez by decision
"I will take Marina Rodriguez Marina Rodriguez by decision but you know I'm not I'm not running to the book you say and take my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

No bet; line considered wide
"I lean with Marina Rodriguez... I don't have a bet on this fight and I don't really have an interest in betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Rodriguez round 5 TKO; round 4 or 5 decision
"give me Marina Rodriguez round five TKO I think glamos will be on fumes by that point"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

under on total rounds (considering), Marina Rodriguez 120 significant strikes on PrizePicks (considering)
"Marina Rodriguez is the pick for the purposes of the show I'm not gonna be attacking the minus 220 though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.

48-47 or 49-46 decision
"I'm going Marina Rodriguez here... I'll go 48 47 49 46 Marina Rodriguez but she loses the first round."
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.

Could be a sneaky under two and a half type bet when those round lines drop.
"I'm definitely going to pick Tatiana. I think the wrestling is just going to be too hard to consistently stop."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.

Second round submission
"I'm going to take Suarez to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.

win by submission
"We should eventually see Suarez land those takedowns and work to a position where she can eventually incorporate a submission and force the tap from the Brazilian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"I'm going to have to go with Tatiana Suarez. I think Lemos's style of fighting ... will leave her more open to the grappling of Suarez."