UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025 · Catchweight (147.5 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 323
Age 31
Height 5' 9"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 25
Height 5' 7"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Muhammad Naimov
2.51 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
3.35 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.49 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mairon Santos
3.33 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.24 SApM
65.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Muhammad Naimov - Fight History
LOSS vs Mairon Santos
KO R3 0:21 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 48 37% 35 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:08
Mairon Santos 1 27 of 45 60% 43 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 11 of 18 61% 20 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:00
Mairon Santos 0 7 of 15 46% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 26 23% 14 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:08
Mairon Santos 0 16 of 24 66% 24 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mairon Santos 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 48 37% 7 of 29 6 of 10 5 of 9 13 of 40 5 of 8 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 27 of 45 60% 11 of 27 8 of 10 8 of 8 19 of 34 7 of 8 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 11 of 18 61% 3 of 9 5 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 7 of 15 46% 2 of 9 3 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 26 23% 3 of 18 1 of 4 2 of 4 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 16 of 24 66% 6 of 13 5 of 6 5 of 5 10 of 17 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 4 25% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Angelo picks Mairon Santos because he sets a better pace, moves forward, and has power in both hands and feet. He notes that Naimov is well-rounded but lacks urgency and danger, often just trying to win minutes rather than finish. Angelo expects the optics of Santos moving forward and Naimov slowing the pace to favor Santos. He also mentions the over on the round line as a potential bet due to both fighters' durability.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)
"Marian Santos is the pick. The odds are widening."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Big Brady picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov. He criticizes Naimov's volume, cardio, and cheating, calling him one of the biggest cheaters in the UFC. He believes Santos is the better striker with more volume and room for growth, and expects Santos to win by decision as long as he stuffs takedowns and his chin holds up.

Santos by decision
"I think he's the cleaner striker. More volume. As long as he can stuff the takedowns, as long as that chin holds up against Naimov, I think he gets the job done. And I think he gets the job done …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing his youth, takedown defense, and striking. He notes that Santos trains with Fighting Nerds and has improved. He believes Naimov is one-dimensional and low-volume, and that Santos will stuff takedowns and outpoint him. He expects Santos to win by decision.

"Myron Santos, I I love the kid, you know, Matt. He's the ultimate fighter. I really like him. I think he's going to be a really solid prospect."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Connor picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is a physical phenom with explosive power and speed. He acknowledges that Santos can be inactive and has poor positioning, but believes Naimov is so hittable that Santos will land big shots. Connor cites Naimov's lack of defense and Santos's power advantage.

"I think I'll take, uh, I'll take Santos as well, just because Naimov is so hittable."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Daniel picks Santos, citing his technical striking, improved takedown defense, and overall skill. He believes Santos will dictate the fight on the feet and outclass Naimov, who is solid but not special. He sees Santos as a future top-15 fighter.

"I do think that Myron Santos is going to put some kind of striking clinic on Muhammad Nimov and get this win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Lucrative James believes Mairon Santos is the better striker and will light up Muhammad Naimov on the feet. He notes Naimov's grappling-heavy game plan will cause him to gas out, while Santos' youth and improvement give him a higher ceiling. He predicts Santos wins, possibly by finish or decision, and is confident in the pick.

"I'm predicting Maranos fairly confidently in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

The host believes Santos is physical enough to stop Naimov's takedowns and is the better striker. He expects Santos to counter Naimov's power shots effectively, batter his legs, and eventually secure a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I believe Santos is physical enough to stop the takedowns of Naimov and be the better striker... eventually lead to a knockout victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Paul agrees, noting that Santos is a much better striker and that Naimov's takedowns are his only path. He believes Santos will defend takedowns and win a decision. He mentions that Santos by decision is around even money and is a good play.

"I expect him to do better in this fight. Stay off those takedown attempts from Naimov. He's a much better striker than Naimov."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

The Guru picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov, citing Santos' superior standup and damage ability compared to Naimov's control-based wins. He notes that Naimov's recent victories were close decisions relying on control time, while Santos has a clear win over Sadique Youssef and a KO of Kofley. The Guru believes Santos will finish Naimov in round two by KO.

round two KO
"The frogman will get it done in round two by KO over Muhammad Nimov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Zane picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is more dangerous moment to moment and has the physical tools to compete. He acknowledges that Naimov could use pressure and wrestling to neutralize Santos, but believes Santos's power and explosiveness give him the edge. Zane calls it a good matchup.

"I'm going to pick Santos, but the good fight, honestly, both guys, yeah, both guys have something to prove."
WIN vs Bogdan Grad
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 54 33% 70 of 119 1 of 3 33% 1 0 2:53
Bogdan Grad 0 31 of 64 48% 49 of 88 3 of 10 30% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 22 45% 24 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Bogdan Grad 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Bogdan Grad 0 10 of 21 47% 15 of 27 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:01
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 2 of 11 18% 34 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 22 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 54 33% 11 of 45 3 of 3 4 of 6 16 of 50 2 of 4 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 31 of 64 48% 7 of 30 14 of 19 10 of 15 18 of 46 13 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 22 45% 6 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 4 9 of 19 1 of 3 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 15 of 30 50% 3 of 12 6 of 9 6 of 9 5 of 18 10 of 12 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 21 28% 3 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 10 of 21 47% 3 of 11 4 of 6 3 of 4 10 of 19 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bogdan Grad 6 of 13 46% 1 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, but with reservations. He thinks Naimov is slightly better everywhere and will win a close decision, but notes that Naimov doesn't chase finishes and may coast. He acknowledges Bogdan's finishing ability and the risk of a finish if Bogdan's cardio holds. He fades Naimov for fantasy due to low scoring potential.

Mentions Bogdan Grad at $7,400 as a good price if he has cardio; predicts decision.
"I think Naimov wins this fight. I think Naimov wins a close fight just like his last one."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his power as a key factor. He notes that Bogdan Grad absorbs a high volume of strikes (8 per minute) and that Naimov has knockout power, having slept Jamie Mullarkey and hurt others. Brady thinks Naimov is more durable and has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He predicts Naimov wins by first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Grad has more heart.

first round knockout
"I like Naimov to win. I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Connor picks Naimov, agreeing that Naimov's athleticism and strength will overwhelm Grad, who is not strong in tie-ups and relies on outlasting opponents. He notes that Naimov's mistakes and over-aggression won't be punished by Grad, who lacks the athleticism to capitalize. He believes Naimov will be able to impose his will and win the fight.

"I think he can beat Bogdan Grad. Yeah. That's not a lot of deafness to Bogdan Grad's name, is there? It's not an athleticism that's going to take over in situations."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The host doesn't understand the love for Naimov outside of power punching. He thinks if Naimov can't get Grad out early, Grad will push a pace and pressure that Naimov can't keep up with, leading to a submission in the second or third round.

"I never understand the big love on Naimov outside of the power punching that he brings to the table. But if he can't get Grad out of there early, I'm expecting Grad to push a pace and pressure that Naimov …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, criticizing Bogdan Grad's lackluster performances. He notes Naimov's power and ability to manhandle opponents, and despite a loss to Felipe Lima, he sees Naimov as the better fighter. He predicts a dominant decision or first-round finish.

Naimov wins by decision or first-round finish
"I'm going to go with Muhammad Nimov here. I think he's still good. He's still very good."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Zane picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and physicality compared to Grad. He notes that Grad is a pace fighter who relies on accumulation, but lacks strength in tie-ups and is foot-slow. Naimov, despite being reckless, is strong and powerful in the clinch and will maul Grad. He draws a parallel to Rębecki vs Orolbai, where the more brutish fighter won.

"I got to pick Naimov and that, you know, for defining it on the same characteristics, you got to take the same kind of winner. Yep. Agreed."
WIN vs Kaan Ofli
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 32 of 92 34% 79 of 176 2 of 2 100% 0 0 5:36
Kaan Ofli 0 31 of 66 46% 57 of 97 0 of 6 0% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 14 of 34 41% 32 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Kaan Ofli 0 11 of 27 40% 23 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:21
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 33 30% 25 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Kaan Ofli 0 11 of 21 52% 19 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:03
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 8 of 25 32% 22 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:25
Kaan Ofli 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 32 of 92 34% 23 of 79 8 of 12 1 of 1 22 of 73 6 of 6 4 of 13
Kaan Ofli 31 of 66 46% 5 of 30 16 of 21 10 of 15 14 of 44 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 14 of 34 41% 7 of 23 6 of 10 1 of 1 10 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 11 of 27 40% 2 of 12 7 of 9 2 of 6 6 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 33 30% 8 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 11 of 21 52% 1 of 10 4 of 5 6 of 6 6 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 8 of 25 32% 8 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 13
Kaan Ofli 9 of 18 50% 2 of 8 5 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 7 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his well-rounded skills, speed, and athleticism. He notes that Kaan Ofli is a BJJ black belt but lacks the length and wrestling to be effective at this level. He believes Naimov's striking and takedown defense will be key, and he is growing more confident in Naimov as fight week progresses.

"Muhammad naov is the pick and I am more and more confident every day"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady is not high on Muhammad Naimov but thinks this is a good matchup for him. He notes Kaan Ofli laid an egg in his last fight and was brutally knocked out. Brady expects Naimov to be the better striker and knock Ofli out in the first round, though he would never lay -300 on Naimov.

first round knockout
"give me naob I'll take him imob to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Connor picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and strength. He notes that both fighters are similar brawlers, but Naimov is a slightly better athlete and has a more durable chin. Connor believes Naimov's physicality and ability to win scrambles will be the difference, and that Ofli's tendency to crash the pocket will play into Naimov's strengths.

"I'm just going to take Naimaw up here. Hopefully, I thought he was one of the better prospects on the Ultimate Fighter, but I also thought that nobody on the Ultimate Fighter was really all that good."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Naimov has more powerful striking and will land more often, winning on the scorecards if he can't get a late finish. Both fighters like to wrestle and have power, but Naimov's output and power are expected to be the difference.

"I believe it's going to be Naimov that ends up coming out on top landing the more powerful strikes landing more often and end up winning this fight on the scorecards if he's unable to get the finish late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov to win by KO in the second round or late first. He believes Naimov has wicked grappling skills and knockout power, and that Ofli's short reach (66 inches) will be a disadvantage. He thinks Naimov will have an advantage on the feet and won't be outmuscled.

KO win, second round or late first
"I'm actually going to call a KO win for muhamed naov maybe in the second round or late in the first"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Zane picks Naimov, agreeing that he is the stronger athlete and more likely to win the physical exchanges. He notes that Ofli's game is one-dimensional and that Naimov's durability and power should carry him. Zane also points out that Ofli's loss to Myron Santos showed he can be overwhelmed, and Naimov presents a similar challenge.

"I'm just going to take Naimaw up here. Hopefully, I thought he was one of the better prospects on the Ultimate Fighter, but I also thought that nobody on the Ultimate Fighter was really all that good."
LOSS vs Felipe Lima
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:15 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felipe Lima 0 30 of 85 35% 55 of 120 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:36
Muhammad Naimov 0 37 of 70 52% 62 of 98 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felipe Lima 0 7 of 19 36% 31 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:14
Muhammad Naimov 0 14 of 23 60% 35 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
2 Felipe Lima 0 18 of 54 33% 18 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Muhammad Naimov 0 21 of 36 58% 24 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Felipe Lima 0 5 of 12 41% 6 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Muhammad Naimov 0 2 of 11 18% 3 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felipe Lima 30 of 85 35% 14 of 60 6 of 15 10 of 10 26 of 72 2 of 7 2 of 6
Muhammad Naimov 37 of 70 52% 10 of 37 14 of 19 13 of 14 31 of 60 6 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felipe Lima 7 of 19 36% 3 of 13 1 of 3 3 of 3 5 of 11 0 of 2 2 of 6
Muhammad Naimov 14 of 23 60% 3 of 12 5 of 5 6 of 6 10 of 18 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Felipe Lima 18 of 54 33% 10 of 39 3 of 10 5 of 5 17 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Muhammad Naimov 21 of 36 58% 7 of 19 8 of 10 6 of 7 20 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Felipe Lima 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Muhammad Naimov 2 of 11 18% 0 of 6 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Naimov, citing his power, size, and athleticism. He notes that Felipe Lima is moving up from bantamweight on short notice, which is a significant disadvantage. He acknowledges Lima is a very good prospect but believes the size and power difference will be too much. He is surprised Naimov is not a bigger favorite.

"I think Muhammad naov wins this fight but I totally understand how this is a tougher matchup than his original matchup because Felipe is very well-rounded very good"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Cody picks Lima despite moving up a weight class on short notice, believing he is the better fighter. He notes Naimov's cardio issues and reliance on power wrestling, and expects Lima to survive early rounds and take over later. He acknowledges the risk of Naimov's size and strength.

"Felipe Lima is the pick but I'm expecting a bad round and a half a tough start to the fight"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Daniel Vreeland picks Felipe Lima but is hesitant due to the 'debut stunt' factor. He believes Lima is the more well-rounded and physical fighter with five-round experience, but worries about debut jitters. He acknowledges Naimov's toughness and improvements but sees Lima as the better fighter overall.

"I'm g go Felipe Lima there"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Lima

Jacob picks Lima, believing he is the more technical striker and well-rounded fighter. He worries about the short notice and weight cut but thinks Lima's technicality will trouble Naimov. He notes Naimov struggled with Nathaniel Wood, who is not a big featherweight, and thinks Lima could outfight him. He is not sure if he will bet it.

"I'm going to go Felipe Lima here I you know I understand the love that he's getting as a dog I'm not sure if I'm going to bet it yet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

JP picks Naimov by submission, noting that Bagdasarian's only two losses are by submission and Naimov has 3 submission wins. He believes Naimov will take the fight to the ground and submit him. Brevan agrees, adding that Naimov can also win by ground-and-pound. He suggests a prop bet on under 2.5 rounds. Both see Naimov finishing the fight early.

Naimov by submission; under 2.5 rounds
"I'm going name off by sub"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Paul leans towards Naimov, citing his size advantage and the fact that Lima is moving up on short notice. He notes that Naimov has never been finished and that Lima's preparation is questionable. However, he doesn't bet the winner, instead taking the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"I'll side with naimov I suppose ever so slightly but I don't plan to bet uh you know an actual winner"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov over Felipe Lima, despite expressing dislike for Naimov. He notes that Naimov is a massive featherweight with power, while Lima is a bantamweight moving up and has been out for 11 months. He believes Lima is undersized and lacks finishing potential, while Naimov has shown he can rock opponents. He also cynically suggests that Naimov may cheat if needed, but ultimately picks him to win.

"I'm going to go with naov because I'm convinced this dude's on the source other than that though he should just beat Lima."
WIN vs Erik Silva
TKO (leg injury) R1 0:44 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Erik Silva 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Erik Silva 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Erik Silva 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Erik Silva 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Naimov as the more well-rounded and dangerous fighter, citing his power and wrestling ability. He notes that Naimov benefited from fouls in his last fight but still believes he should win. He mentions waiting for prop bets on round lines but is confident Naimov gets the job done.

waiting for prop bets on round lines
"naimov is going to be the pick I would say medium level confidence here I'm probably going to wait for some prop bets to see what the round lines look like"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov to win by TKO in the second round. He notes that Naimov came into the UFC on short notice and pulled off a big upset against Jamie Mullarkey, then beat Nathaniel Wood. He criticizes Erik Silva's performance against TJ Brown, saying Silva gassed out in five minutes and makes mistakes on the ground. Brady believes Naimov can hang in grappling early but will break Silva as the fight goes on due to Silva's poor cardio.

Naimov wins by TKO in round 2
"give me nof here I'll take nof to break Eric Silva in the second round via TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Cody picks Silva as a PRP pick, noting Naimov's suspect cardio, wrestling, and striking. He thinks Silva can wrestle and take Naimov down, holding him for two rounds. He acknowledges Silva may gas but Naimov will too. He sees value at the plus price and is fading Naimov.

"I fade him and I put Eric Silva as a PRP pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The host acknowledges the heavy betting line on Naimov (close to -600) but believes Naimov's pure wrestling advantage and aggressive style will overcome any altitude concerns. He expects Naimov to out-grind Silva, who is an early finisher but will be overwhelmed by Naimov's pressure.

Heavy favorite at close to -600
"I don't understand all the heavy love that's coming in on naov pushing him up to a close minus 600 favorite sure he'll have the pure wrestling advantage in this matchup but you got to wonder what the elevation and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation, noting Naimov's suspect cardio and Silva's wrestling but also Silva's age and submission losses. He is not interested in parlaying Naimov and doesn't commit to either side.

"it's a pretty clear dogger pass I'm not interested in parlaying Mohamed naov"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 50 of 72 69% 70 of 94 2 of 7 28% 0 0 2:44
Nathaniel Wood 0 48 of 81 59% 100 of 140 4 of 9 44% 0 1 6:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 10 of 17 58% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
Nathaniel Wood 0 18 of 28 64% 49 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:37
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 1 100% 6 of 6 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
Nathaniel Wood 0 11 of 13 84% 30 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:59
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 54 72% 47 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Nathaniel Wood 0 19 of 40 47% 21 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 50 of 72 69% 37 of 57 6 of 7 7 of 8 36 of 56 5 of 6 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 48 of 81 59% 31 of 60 10 of 13 7 of 8 24 of 48 11 of 14 13 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 10 of 17 58% 4 of 10 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 18 of 28 64% 13 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 3 6 of 11 5 of 5 7 of 12
2 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0
Nathaniel Wood 11 of 13 84% 4 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 5 6 of 7
3 Muhammad Naimov 39 of 54 72% 32 of 46 5 of 5 2 of 3 28 of 41 2 of 3 9 of 10
Nathaniel Wood 19 of 40 47% 14 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood but doesn't love the odds at 3-to-1. He trusts Wood's durability after the war with Andre Fili and his takedown defense. He worries about Naimov's power and the fact that Naimov is untested at 145 with a full camp. Wood is not in any of his parlays, indicating lower confidence.

"Wood's going to be the pick here I I think these less risky spots on this card to bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He highlights Wood's high volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The main concern is Wood's chin, as he has been dropped and finished before, giving Naimov a puncher's chance. However, Brady believes Wood will win a clear 30-27 decision if his durability holds.

decision
"I got to go Nathaniel wood here and I got to take Nathaniel wood to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Wood, emphasizing his speed, wrestling, and volume. He notes that Naimov is a one-dimensional power puncher who lost to Colin Anglin. Cody believes Wood's skill set will overwhelm Naimov, but he acknowledges the power threat.

"Nathaniel wood is the pick but he could be the pie fucker"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel picks Nathaniel Wood to win, acknowledging that Wood is a much better fighter overall but is in a high-risk, low-reward spot against a dangerous opponent. He notes Wood's chin issues and the letdown spot after fighting higher-ranked opponents. He believes Wood should win clearly but warns that Naimov is KO or bust and could catch Wood. He still picks Wood but is cautious.

Wood minus 330, Naimov plus 270; mentions Wood's chin and the letdown spot
"I still think he should clearly win I think he's way better than this guy I think he owns this guy um but yeah n mob's dangerous."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the more complete fighter with relevant experience. At featherweight, he doesn't have to cut extra weight and can use his speed and footwork to stay away from Naimov's power. Expects Wood to put on a masterclass from striking to takedowns to Jiu-Jitsu, winning by decision.

"I'm fully expecting would to go out there and put on a master class against naov from his striking to his takedowns to even his Jiu-Jitsu"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Wood but is hesitant due to Wood's durability issues. He notes that Wood is faster and more skilled, but Naimov has power and could knock him out. Paul expects Wood to win if he avoids big shots, but he is worried about the chin.

Naimov by KO (+600) as a sprinkle
"Wood's the pick just don't love it for the kind of money line you're getting"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood by late rounds TKO, specifically in the third round. He argues that Wood's technical striking, high guard, and tucked chin will make it difficult for Naimov to land a knockout. He also notes that Wood's shorter stature will help him stuff takedowns and counter Naimov's big shots. He dismisses Naimov's upset win over Jamie Mullarkey because Mullarkey's striking defense was poor.

Wood wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think Nathaniel Wood's going to win this fight I'm going to go by late rounds TKO after n of his swinging and missing quite a bit and landing on the guard I think Nathaniel wood gets this one done …"
TKO (punches) R2 2:59 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 39 of 71 54% 40 of 73 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:28
Jamie Mullarkey 1 28 of 70 40% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:41
Jamie Mullarkey 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 16 of 26 61% 16 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Jamie Mullarkey 1 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 39 of 71 54% 15 of 43 14 of 18 10 of 10 27 of 56 12 of 14 0 of 1
Jamie Mullarkey 28 of 70 40% 17 of 56 5 of 8 6 of 6 20 of 60 3 of 5 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 23 of 45 51% 5 of 24 11 of 14 7 of 7 15 of 34 8 of 10 0 of 1
Jamie Mullarkey 16 of 35 45% 7 of 24 4 of 6 5 of 5 13 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 16 of 26 61% 10 of 19 3 of 4 3 of 3 12 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0
Jamie Mullarkey 12 of 35 34% 10 of 32 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 29 0 of 1 5 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Angelo picks Mullarkey due to short notice for Naimov, but is not touching the odds (-590). He thinks Mullarkey is a jack of all trades and should win, but Naimov is decent and could cause trouble. He notes Mullarkey was preparing for a good striker, so his grappling should be on point. He is not confident enough to bet.

"I do think Jamie Mark is going to win it is short notice but I'm not touching these odds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Cody picks Mullarkey, noting his favorable matchup after originally facing a tough wrestler. He highlights Mullarkey's solid cardio, ground game, and power. Cody recalls Naimov's poor Contender Series performance where he was outwrestled and out struck. He thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and durability will be too much for Naimov, even if Naimov has a puncher's chance.

"the pick the 100 Jamie Malarkey minus 400 it's kind of steamed"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Connor picks Mullarkey, agreeing with the size and short-notice factors. He notes that Naimov's game is based on pocket exchanges and clinch knees, but Mullarkey's toughness and ability to survive should allow him to take over. Connor also points out that Naimov struggles when pressured, and Mullarkey can put his foot on the gas.

Mentions Naimov is on short notice and a natural featherweight.
"I'll take malarkey. I mean, I think there's also the possibility that he does surprise him with a takedown."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Daniel picks Mullarkey, noting that Naimov is a step up in competition and Mullarkey's experience should carry him. He acknowledges the line is high but thinks Mullarkey can use wrestling to control the fight. He mentions that Naimov showed cardio issues in his Contender Series fight, gassing in the third round.

"I think his experience should probably carry him through this one"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Jacob picks Mullarkey, believing the path to victory via wrestling is obvious. He thinks Naimov is dangerous with unorthodox striking, but Mullarkey should grapple early and win easily. Jacob notes Mullarkey has more power than people think and is a tough matchup. He is confident Mullarkey wins but acknowledges the odds are too high.

"the path for victory for Jamie Malarkey is just too obvious in my mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with a well-rounded game. Naimov is a short-notice debutant with questionable cardio and level of competition. Mullarkey will mix striking and grappling, pull ahead later, and win by decision. The odds are too high (-350), but Mullarkey should win.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think that Malarkey in terms of a prediction is going to be the side I end up going with also the over two and a half I can see a lot of grappling situations"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 31, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Paul picks Mullarkey confidently despite the high price. He notes Mullarkey's toughness, having been dropped by Michael Johnson and recovered. Paul thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and cardio are superior, and that Naimov's Contender Series performance was unimpressive. He expects Mullarkey to take Naimov down, grind him out, and get a TKO in the second or third round. Paul acknowledges the price is steep but sees Mullarkey as safe.

"Malarkey minus 400 I guess is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 29, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, calling this the main event for him. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey looked good in his last win but that Michael Johnson arguably beat him. He believes Naimov is a different level, with a split decision win over Damir Ismagulov and a win over Matteus Gamrot. He thinks Naimov's body kicks will be key, as Mullarkey keeps his guard high, leaving the body open. He predicts Naimov will open up shots to the head after body work.

"I think he does beat Jamie Malarkey because if there's one thing I've noticed about Jamie Malarkey's game..."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamie Mullarkey

Zane picks Mullarkey, citing his size advantage and toughness. He notes that Naimov is a natural featherweight taking the fight on short notice, and his blitzing style may not work against Mullarkey's durability. Zane expects Mullarkey to weather any early storm and take over with his range-based game.

Mentions Naimov is on short notice and a natural featherweight.
"I'm just going to pick Malarkey to be... he's incredibly tough."
Mairon Santos - Fight History
KO R3 0:21 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 18 of 48 37% 35 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 2:08
Mairon Santos 1 27 of 45 60% 43 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 11 of 18 61% 20 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:00
Mairon Santos 0 7 of 15 46% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Muhammad Naimov 0 6 of 26 23% 14 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:08
Mairon Santos 0 16 of 24 66% 24 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Muhammad Naimov 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mairon Santos 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 18 of 48 37% 7 of 29 6 of 10 5 of 9 13 of 40 5 of 8 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 27 of 45 60% 11 of 27 8 of 10 8 of 8 19 of 34 7 of 8 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 11 of 18 61% 3 of 9 5 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 7 of 15 46% 2 of 9 3 of 4 2 of 2 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Muhammad Naimov 6 of 26 23% 3 of 18 1 of 4 2 of 4 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 16 of 24 66% 6 of 13 5 of 6 5 of 5 10 of 17 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Muhammad Naimov 1 of 4 25% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Angelo picks Mairon Santos because he sets a better pace, moves forward, and has power in both hands and feet. He notes that Naimov is well-rounded but lacks urgency and danger, often just trying to win minutes rather than finish. Angelo expects the optics of Santos moving forward and Naimov slowing the pace to favor Santos. He also mentions the over on the round line as a potential bet due to both fighters' durability.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)
"Marian Santos is the pick. The odds are widening."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Big Brady picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov. He criticizes Naimov's volume, cardio, and cheating, calling him one of the biggest cheaters in the UFC. He believes Santos is the better striker with more volume and room for growth, and expects Santos to win by decision as long as he stuffs takedowns and his chin holds up.

Santos by decision
"I think he's the cleaner striker. More volume. As long as he can stuff the takedowns, as long as that chin holds up against Naimov, I think he gets the job done. And I think he gets the job done …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing his youth, takedown defense, and striking. He notes that Santos trains with Fighting Nerds and has improved. He believes Naimov is one-dimensional and low-volume, and that Santos will stuff takedowns and outpoint him. He expects Santos to win by decision.

"Myron Santos, I I love the kid, you know, Matt. He's the ultimate fighter. I really like him. I think he's going to be a really solid prospect."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Connor picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is a physical phenom with explosive power and speed. He acknowledges that Santos can be inactive and has poor positioning, but believes Naimov is so hittable that Santos will land big shots. Connor cites Naimov's lack of defense and Santos's power advantage.

"I think I'll take, uh, I'll take Santos as well, just because Naimov is so hittable."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Daniel picks Santos, citing his technical striking, improved takedown defense, and overall skill. He believes Santos will dictate the fight on the feet and outclass Naimov, who is solid but not special. He sees Santos as a future top-15 fighter.

"I do think that Myron Santos is going to put some kind of striking clinic on Muhammad Nimov and get this win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Lucrative James believes Mairon Santos is the better striker and will light up Muhammad Naimov on the feet. He notes Naimov's grappling-heavy game plan will cause him to gas out, while Santos' youth and improvement give him a higher ceiling. He predicts Santos wins, possibly by finish or decision, and is confident in the pick.

"I'm predicting Maranos fairly confidently in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

The host believes Santos is physical enough to stop Naimov's takedowns and is the better striker. He expects Santos to counter Naimov's power shots effectively, batter his legs, and eventually secure a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I believe Santos is physical enough to stop the takedowns of Naimov and be the better striker... eventually lead to a knockout victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Paul agrees, noting that Santos is a much better striker and that Naimov's takedowns are his only path. He believes Santos will defend takedowns and win a decision. He mentions that Santos by decision is around even money and is a good play.

"I expect him to do better in this fight. Stay off those takedown attempts from Naimov. He's a much better striker than Naimov."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

The Guru picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov, citing Santos' superior standup and damage ability compared to Naimov's control-based wins. He notes that Naimov's recent victories were close decisions relying on control time, while Santos has a clear win over Sadique Youssef and a KO of Kofley. The Guru believes Santos will finish Naimov in round two by KO.

round two KO
"The frogman will get it done in round two by KO over Muhammad Nimov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Zane picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is more dangerous moment to moment and has the physical tools to compete. He acknowledges that Naimov could use pressure and wrestling to neutralize Santos, but believes Santos's power and explosiveness give him the edge. Zane calls it a good matchup.

"I'm going to pick Santos, but the good fight, honestly, both guys, yeah, both guys have something to prove."
WIN vs Sodiq Yusuff
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sodiq Yusuff 0 36 of 86 41% 60 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:02
Mairon Santos 0 40 of 83 48% 71 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sodiq Yusuff 0 19 of 30 63% 19 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Mairon Santos 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Sodiq Yusuff 0 10 of 26 38% 29 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Mairon Santos 0 16 of 27 59% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
3 Sodiq Yusuff 0 7 of 30 23% 12 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:19
Mairon Santos 0 15 of 29 51% 36 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sodiq Yusuff 36 of 86 41% 9 of 44 9 of 19 18 of 23 35 of 84 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 40 of 83 48% 22 of 56 10 of 18 8 of 9 35 of 77 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sodiq Yusuff 19 of 30 63% 4 of 11 7 of 10 8 of 9 18 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 9 of 27 33% 4 of 18 2 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sodiq Yusuff 10 of 26 38% 3 of 15 2 of 6 5 of 5 10 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 16 of 27 59% 11 of 21 4 of 5 1 of 1 12 of 23 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sodiq Yusuff 7 of 30 23% 2 of 18 0 of 3 5 of 9 7 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mairon Santos 15 of 29 51% 7 of 17 4 of 8 4 of 4 15 of 28 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Angelo picks Sodiq Yusuff as the underdog, but with hesitation. He notes that Yusuff is a fantastic striker with incredible speed and a wide variety of attacks, but is on a two-fight skid. He contrasts Santos's methodical approach with Diego Lopez's aggressive style that troubled Yusuff, suggesting that if Santos lets Yusuff settle in, Yusuff could win. However, he also acknowledges that Santos is good and could control the pace. Angelo's pick seems influenced by personal affinity for Yusuff's social media presence.

"I am actually going to pick Sadiq here. Going with the dog."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Big Brady picks Mairon Santos, citing his power and durability. He notes Sodiq Yusuff's inactivity, injuries, and questionable chin. He expects a standing banger and predicts Santos wins by first-round knockout, though he is not fully confident.

Santos by KO, round 1; under on total rounds
"I am going to go with Santos. ... I'll take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

The host thinks the public is low on Santos due to a controversial decision win, but sees this as a winnable fight for him. He expects Santos to dictate the pace with high output and volume, which should muzzle Yusuff, who needs a knockout to win. He leans with Santos to win on the scorecards.

Santos by decision
"Expect Santos to dictate the pace here, throw a lot of output and volume and that should ultimately muzzle Yousef who I think needs a knockout to win this matchup."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

The Guru picks Mairon Santos, calling him underrated and believing he should have won his last fight against Francis Marshall. He thinks Santos is talented and hungry, while Sodiq Yusuff is chinny and not a full-time fighter anymore. He predicts Santos will finish Yusuff by TKO, noting Yusuff gets wobbled easily.

Santos by TKO
"I'm going with Mron Santos over Sadiq Yousef."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mairon Santos 0 58 of 129 44% 78 of 154 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Francis Marshall 0 39 of 143 27% 64 of 179 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mairon Santos 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Francis Marshall 0 16 of 45 35% 36 of 76 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
2 Mairon Santos 0 19 of 36 52% 19 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Marshall 0 8 of 40 20% 8 of 40 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:22
3 Mairon Santos 0 21 of 51 41% 41 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Marshall 0 15 of 58 25% 20 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mairon Santos 58 of 129 44% 29 of 80 14 of 30 15 of 19 57 of 128 1 of 1 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 39 of 143 27% 32 of 136 1 of 1 6 of 6 39 of 142 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mairon Santos 18 of 42 42% 5 of 21 4 of 10 9 of 11 17 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 16 of 45 35% 10 of 39 1 of 1 5 of 5 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Mairon Santos 19 of 36 52% 10 of 23 4 of 7 5 of 6 19 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 8 of 40 20% 8 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mairon Santos 21 of 51 41% 14 of 36 6 of 13 1 of 2 21 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 15 of 58 25% 14 of 57 0 of 0 1 of 1 15 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mairon Santos vs. Francis Marshall
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-355), Marshall (+280)

Round 1
From one Santos to another we go (no relation), as the self-proclaimed “Legend” Santos (14-1, 1-0 UFC) tries to go for two in a row in the Octagon. To prevail, he will need to put out “Fire” Marshall (8-2, 2-2 UFC). The featherweights will be joined by referee Chris Tognoni, who clocks them as they elect not to touch gloves. Santos lunges forward with a front kick, and Marshall slips out of the way and beans him with a right hand over the top that stuns Santos. Santos tries to go one-for-one with his opponent, and Marshall sweeps him off his feet with a powerful calf kick. Marshall shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and the Brazilian skirts out of the way to get back to the center of the cage. When Santos gets off a leg kick, Marshall clips him with a left hand that stumbles him but does not put him down. Santos chambers and fires a low kick, knocking Marshall to his seat for a second. Marshall springs back up and darts in with a one-two, and he scores a leg kick and checks one coming back his way. Marshall backs off with a short combination as Santos bears down on him, and he lashes out with a right hand that just grazes off the chin. When Santos attacks a low kick, Marshall’s counter is primed and ready to fire. Marshall clips Santos with it, and Santos gets back in his face and clubs him with a right hand on the temple. Marshall’s success prompts the fans to cheer “USA” for him until he gets his, and then the chants die down. Marshall gets back to it with a few long punches, only to get chopped at with a leg kick. Marshall gives him one back to think about, and rolls with a booming right hand that bangs into the side of his head. Santos lets loose a leg kick, and Marshall shoots in with a telegraphed takedown and is met with an uppercut. Marshall winds up with a left hand and knocks “The Legend” to the canvas, and he immediately is faced with a takedown attempt. Marshall fights out of it to get to the side while Santos is trying to stand, and he beats on him on the side of the dome. Santos leans himself against the fencing, and Marshall drops in a few more right hands until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Marshall

Round 2
The fighters race towards one another to start off the second round, with Marshall looking for his jab early. Santos slaps one away and pops Marshall in the chops with his own. When Santos is faking low kicks, Marshall gets tired of reacting to them and smacks the Brazilian in the face with a left hand. Santos lunges at him with a left hook, and Marshall parries it and cannot get out of the way of two leg kicks, although he partially checks the second. Marshall scoops in a left uppercut when Santos leaves his guard down, and he rails a right hand around the guard to sting Santos. When Santos backpedals, Marshall chases him down and lands a few punches on his foe’s guard. Marshall disengages, and he tries to time a counter but is beaten to the punch by a leaping Santos. Marshall uses his jab to disallow Santos from loading up, and he swats away a front kick to catch his man with a left. The third strike in a combination from Santos busts up Marshall’s nose, which is firmly leaking at this point. Santos slaps a few low kicks in when there is a lull in the action, and Marshall springs into action with a big left hook that brushes past his intended target. Marshall rushes forward with a tackling takedown, taking Santos off his feet and drifting past Santos when the first try fails. Marshall grips Santos from behind and clasps his hands around the waist, kicking Santos’ feet out from underneath him a few times when Santos scampers back upright. Marshall grinds his adversary against the wire, looking for trips until Santos turns around. Marshall considers going after a single-leg takedown, but Santos uses a knee shield to push Marshall away from him and force a separation. Santos lets fly a head kick, and Marshall shrugs it off and blocks another from the other side right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Marshall

Round 3
The featherweights clap hands to get going in the last stanza, with Santos again in the center of the cage looking for leg kicks. Marshall spurs himself into action with three clubbing punches, only to back away when Santos is on him with power. Marshall sneaks a right hand in around the guard, and he slips away before Santos can bear down on him. Marshall intercepts an advancing Santos with a stiff jab, and he continues moving so Santos cannot trap him. Marshall leans forward and unleashes a right hand from an odd angle, and he dances out of harm’s way as Santos’ volume has diminished fairly significantly. Santos gets off two punches, but Marshall is elusive and throws back three. The Brazilian absorbs a left hand on the chin when coming forward despite his guard pinned to his jab, and Marshall is slicker and quicker. Santos tries to step in with a knee, and it is a few feet away from a moving Marshall. Marshall sits down on a handful of punches, ignoring what comes back his way and checking a leg kick. Marshall is in and out with a jab, slipping strikes and peppering “The Legend” with offense. Santos is one-and-done with a power overhand right, and he jabs out with a front kick off the midsection. Marshall thumps the front leg with a kick, and he turns his head out of the way of a right hand after completing his own combo. Santos stands firm and plants his fists on Marshall’s chin, and Marshall does not like this and shoots. Santos tries to roll with it, but Marshall smothers him and puts him flat on his back with 25 seconds remaining on the clock. Marshall resides in the closed guard, with Santos swatting at him with his hands that have nothing on them. Before Marshall can get off much ground-and-pound, time expires to conclude the pairing.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)

The Official Result
Mairon Santos def. Francis Marshall via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
WIN vs Kaan Ofli
KO (punch) R2 1:30 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Aug 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mairon Santos 0 12 of 28 42% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
Kaan Ofli 1 31 of 67 46% 32 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mairon Santos 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Kaan Ofli 0 19 of 43 44% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mairon Santos 0 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Kaan Ofli 1 12 of 24 50% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mairon Santos 12 of 28 42% 10 of 22 1 of 2 1 of 4 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 31 of 67 46% 15 of 48 9 of 12 7 of 7 27 of 62 1 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mairon Santos 7 of 20 35% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 2 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 19 of 43 44% 9 of 33 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mairon Santos 5 of 8 62% 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kaan Ofli 12 of 24 50% 6 of 15 3 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Cody doesn't have a pick because the opponent for Ofli is not yet determined at the time of recording. He mentions that Santos and Ziggy Montes Rasa are the two best guys and the winner of that fight would beat Ofli. He says he needs to see the odds before making a decision.

"I would take the winner of that fight to beat offley who's probably not bad but man I got burned so bad by nickel I can't trust these random Australian guys no more"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Daniel Vreeland picks Kaan Ofli as the underdog, noting Ofli is likely the stronger grappler while Santos has big leg kicks but issues on the mat. He admits he is not very familiar with either fighter and advises caution.

"I'll probably go with the dog but this one I'm not as familiar with these two so take what I'm saying here with a grain of salt"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 20, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Paul doesn't have a pick because the opponent is unknown. He says it's impossible to provide betting advice without odds. He mentions he saw Ofli's fight and he looked solid, but needs more information.

"it's obviously pretty much impossible to provide betting advice when those things don't exist at the time of this recording"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Angelo picks Mairon Santos because he sets a better pace, moves forward, and has power in both hands and feet. He notes that Naimov is well-rounded but lacks urgency and danger, often just trying to win minutes rather than finish. Angelo expects the optics of Santos moving forward and Naimov slowing the pace to favor Santos. He also mentions the over on the round line as a potential bet due to both fighters' durability.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)
"Marian Santos is the pick. The odds are widening."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Big Brady picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov. He criticizes Naimov's volume, cardio, and cheating, calling him one of the biggest cheaters in the UFC. He believes Santos is the better striker with more volume and room for growth, and expects Santos to win by decision as long as he stuffs takedowns and his chin holds up.

Santos by decision
"I think he's the cleaner striker. More volume. As long as he can stuff the takedowns, as long as that chin holds up against Naimov, I think he gets the job done. And I think he gets the job done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing his youth, takedown defense, and striking. He notes that Santos trains with Fighting Nerds and has improved. He believes Naimov is one-dimensional and low-volume, and that Santos will stuff takedowns and outpoint him. He expects Santos to win by decision.

"Myron Santos, I I love the kid, you know, Matt. He's the ultimate fighter. I really like him. I think he's going to be a really solid prospect."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Connor picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is a physical phenom with explosive power and speed. He acknowledges that Santos can be inactive and has poor positioning, but believes Naimov is so hittable that Santos will land big shots. Connor cites Naimov's lack of defense and Santos's power advantage.

"I think I'll take, uh, I'll take Santos as well, just because Naimov is so hittable."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Daniel picks Santos, citing his technical striking, improved takedown defense, and overall skill. He believes Santos will dictate the fight on the feet and outclass Naimov, who is solid but not special. He sees Santos as a future top-15 fighter.

"I do think that Myron Santos is going to put some kind of striking clinic on Muhammad Nimov and get this win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Lucrative James believes Mairon Santos is the better striker and will light up Muhammad Naimov on the feet. He notes Naimov's grappling-heavy game plan will cause him to gas out, while Santos' youth and improvement give him a higher ceiling. He predicts Santos wins, possibly by finish or decision, and is confident in the pick.

"I'm predicting Maranos fairly confidently in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

The host believes Santos is physical enough to stop Naimov's takedowns and is the better striker. He expects Santos to counter Naimov's power shots effectively, batter his legs, and eventually secure a knockout victory.

knockout victory
"I believe Santos is physical enough to stop the takedowns of Naimov and be the better striker... eventually lead to a knockout victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

Paul agrees, noting that Santos is a much better striker and that Naimov's takedowns are his only path. He believes Santos will defend takedowns and win a decision. He mentions that Santos by decision is around even money and is a good play.

"I expect him to do better in this fight. Stay off those takedown attempts from Naimov. He's a much better striker than Naimov."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mairon Santos

The Guru picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov, citing Santos' superior standup and damage ability compared to Naimov's control-based wins. He notes that Naimov's recent victories were close decisions relying on control time, while Santos has a clear win over Sadique Youssef and a KO of Kofley. The Guru believes Santos will finish Naimov in round two by KO.

round two KO
"The frogman will get it done in round two by KO over Muhammad Nimov."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mairon Santos

Zane picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is more dangerous moment to moment and has the physical tools to compete. He acknowledges that Naimov could use pressure and wrestling to neutralize Santos, but believes Santos's power and explosiveness give him the edge. Zane calls it a good matchup.

"I'm going to pick Santos, but the good fight, honestly, both guys, yeah, both guys have something to prove."