Career Averages - Muhammad Naimov
Career Averages - Mairon Santos
Muhammad Naimov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 35 of 69 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Mairon Santos | 1 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 43 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mairon Santos | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 18 of 48 | 37% | 7 of 29 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 13 of 40 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 27 of 45 | 60% | 11 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 11 of 18 | 61% | 3 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 7 of 15 | 46% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 6 of 26 | 23% | 3 of 18 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 16 of 24 | 66% | 6 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Angelo picks Mairon Santos because he sets a better pace, moves forward, and has power in both hands and feet. He notes that Naimov is well-rounded but lacks urgency and danger, often just trying to win minutes rather than finish. Angelo expects the optics of Santos moving forward and Naimov slowing the pace to favor Santos. He also mentions the over on the round line as a potential bet due to both fighters' durability.
Big Brady picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov. He criticizes Naimov's volume, cardio, and cheating, calling him one of the biggest cheaters in the UFC. He believes Santos is the better striker with more volume and room for growth, and expects Santos to win by decision as long as he stuffs takedowns and his chin holds up.
Cody picks Santos, citing his youth, takedown defense, and striking. He notes that Santos trains with Fighting Nerds and has improved. He believes Naimov is one-dimensional and low-volume, and that Santos will stuff takedowns and outpoint him. He expects Santos to win by decision.
Connor picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is a physical phenom with explosive power and speed. He acknowledges that Santos can be inactive and has poor positioning, but believes Naimov is so hittable that Santos will land big shots. Connor cites Naimov's lack of defense and Santos's power advantage.
Daniel picks Santos, citing his technical striking, improved takedown defense, and overall skill. He believes Santos will dictate the fight on the feet and outclass Naimov, who is solid but not special. He sees Santos as a future top-15 fighter.
Lucrative James believes Mairon Santos is the better striker and will light up Muhammad Naimov on the feet. He notes Naimov's grappling-heavy game plan will cause him to gas out, while Santos' youth and improvement give him a higher ceiling. He predicts Santos wins, possibly by finish or decision, and is confident in the pick.
The host believes Santos is physical enough to stop Naimov's takedowns and is the better striker. He expects Santos to counter Naimov's power shots effectively, batter his legs, and eventually secure a knockout victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Santos is a much better striker and that Naimov's takedowns are his only path. He believes Santos will defend takedowns and win a decision. He mentions that Santos by decision is around even money and is a good play.
The Guru picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov, citing Santos' superior standup and damage ability compared to Naimov's control-based wins. He notes that Naimov's recent victories were close decisions relying on control time, while Santos has a clear win over Sadique Youssef and a KO of Kofley. The Guru believes Santos will finish Naimov in round two by KO.
Zane picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is more dangerous moment to moment and has the physical tools to compete. He acknowledges that Naimov could use pressure and wrestling to neutralize Santos, but believes Santos's power and explosiveness give him the edge. Zane calls it a good matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 18 of 54 | 33% | 70 of 119 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 49 of 88 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 15 of 27 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 34 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 18 of 54 | 33% | 11 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 50 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Grad | 31 of 64 | 48% | 7 of 30 | 14 of 19 | 10 of 15 | 18 of 46 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Grad | 15 of 30 | 50% | 3 of 12 | 6 of 9 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 18 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 6 of 21 | 28% | 3 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Grad | 10 of 21 | 47% | 3 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Grad | 6 of 13 | 46% | 1 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Naimov (-230), Grad (+190)
Round 1
What was once a stadium-drawing attraction has become old hat for Tajikistan’s Naimov (12-3, 4-1 UFC), who is already taking his sixth walk to the Octagon since debuting in the middle of 2023. The man known as “Hillman” will take one of the few other Austrian talents on the roster in the form of Grad (15-2, 1-0 UFC). Drawing the charge for this featherweight contest is referee Marc Goddard, who stands back to let the fighters come together and touch ‘em up. Grad is fired up and jittery, missing with a front kick and slapping the front leg with his shin. Naimov responds with his own low kick and sways out of the way of an overhand right. Grad reaches him with a rear low kick, and he lands a second as Naimov is changing stances. Grad drops his hands and engages, kicking his man in the side and getting tagged with a right hand over the top. Grad just misses a spinning wheel kick effort, and the crowd starts chanting for Naimov. Naimov says two can play that game and zings Grad with his own wheel kick, shaking Grad up badly. Grad musters up every bit of his willpower to rush forward, still wobbled, and tackle the Tajik fighter to the mat. Naimov gets back to his feet but eats an elbow in the process, and he breaks out. Naimov strings together a combination ending with an elbow, and Grad is tough as nails as he rushes forward. Naimov catches him on the way forward with a left hand, and he hops back to dodge a wheel kick. Naimov counters with a back fist, and as he rushes forward, Grad clips him with a punch that knocks his mouthguard out. With Grad pushing Naimov to the fence, Goddard replaces the fighter’s mouthpiece without needing to break the action up. The two fighters jockey for position, and Naimov drives a knee up the middle and eats an elbow right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Round 2
The fighters tap glove before getting after it, where they trade high kicks as Grad roars at his foe. Grad whiffs on a jumping kick, and he swipes a left hand behind the ear that appears to destabilize his adversary. Naimov backs off, avoiding a wheel kick and tripping himself up on the outer gate area. Grad marches him down, trying another spin but settling down with a body kick that pounds his man in the side. They kick at the same time, and Grad nods at him and rips unloads with a left hand around the guard. Naimov pays him back with interest in the form of a one-two, and he nearly bites on a faked takedown effort. Grad spins with a kick that misses, setting him up for a double-leg takedown try. Grad takes Naimov from behind as he leans him against the wall, slugging him in the side of the head once before Naimov turns himself around. Grad drops down low for a takedown, and he is shut down for it. Naimov elbows to break off, and he spins with a back kick that lands on Grad’s hip. Grad walks forward to deliver a kick on the inside of the lead leg, and he backs off to dodge the head kick but is not out of range from a one-two that tags him. Naimov circles around until settling down, as Grad looks for a rushing up-elbow and shoots for a takedown. Naimov latches onto the neck with a guillotine choke, only for Grad to switch to the other side and laugh off the submission. Grad goes after the double, and he lands it with five seconds left. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Round 3
Grad is fired up to start off the round, rifling off kicks from both legs. Naimov spins with a back elbow that clips the side of the head, and his spinning wheel kick stuns Grad but does not put him down. Grade gathers his thoughts and shoots for a double, ultimately putting Naimov down to the ground as he redoubles his effort. The Austrian gets both hooks in, and Naimov stands up even with Grad on his back. Naimov grabs hold of Grad’s foot to spin him around, and he lowers himself down to the mat to establish top position. Grad throws his legs up in pursuit of a triangle choke, and Naimov shoves the legs over to shut it down. Grad complains to Goddard about something, and Goddard asks them for more activity as Naimov is in a holding pattern. Grad sits up for a moment, and Goddard stands them up with 90 seconds to spare. Grad marches his man down, digs a left to the liver and shoots for a double. When stopped, Grad goes high with a clacking elbow. Grad hangs on tight and changes levels, kneeing Naimov in the gut but not able to keep him there. Naimov splits with 30 seconds left, and he says hello against with a spinning wheel kick. Grad greets him back with a head kick that brushes the beard, and he considers a spin but bails on it. Grad wants a brawl, and Naimov will not oblige as the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
The Official Result
Muhammadjon Naimov def. Bogdan Grad via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, but with reservations. He thinks Naimov is slightly better everywhere and will win a close decision, but notes that Naimov doesn't chase finishes and may coast. He acknowledges Bogdan's finishing ability and the risk of a finish if Bogdan's cardio holds. He fades Naimov for fantasy due to low scoring potential.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his power as a key factor. He notes that Bogdan Grad absorbs a high volume of strikes (8 per minute) and that Naimov has knockout power, having slept Jamie Mullarkey and hurt others. Brady thinks Naimov is more durable and has takedown defense to keep the fight standing. He predicts Naimov wins by first-round knockout, though he acknowledges Grad has more heart.
Connor picks Naimov, agreeing that Naimov's athleticism and strength will overwhelm Grad, who is not strong in tie-ups and relies on outlasting opponents. He notes that Naimov's mistakes and over-aggression won't be punished by Grad, who lacks the athleticism to capitalize. He believes Naimov will be able to impose his will and win the fight.
The host doesn't understand the love for Naimov outside of power punching. He thinks if Naimov can't get Grad out early, Grad will push a pace and pressure that Naimov can't keep up with, leading to a submission in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, criticizing Bogdan Grad's lackluster performances. He notes Naimov's power and ability to manhandle opponents, and despite a loss to Felipe Lima, he sees Naimov as the better fighter. He predicts a dominant decision or first-round finish.
Zane picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and physicality compared to Grad. He notes that Grad is a pace fighter who relies on accumulation, but lacks strength in tie-ups and is foot-slow. Naimov, despite being reckless, is strong and powerful in the clinch and will maul Grad. He draws a parallel to Rębecki vs Orolbai, where the more brutish fighter won.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 32 of 92 | 34% | 79 of 176 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:36 |
| Kaan Ofli | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 57 of 97 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 32 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Kaan Ofli | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 25 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Kaan Ofli | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 22 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Kaan Ofli | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 15 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 32 of 92 | 34% | 23 of 79 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 73 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 13 |
| Kaan Ofli | 31 of 66 | 46% | 5 of 30 | 16 of 21 | 10 of 15 | 14 of 44 | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 23 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaan Ofli | 11 of 27 | 40% | 2 of 12 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 10 of 33 | 30% | 8 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaan Ofli | 11 of 21 | 52% | 1 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 8 of 25 | 32% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 |
| Kaan Ofli | 9 of 18 | 50% | 2 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Featherweights close out the undercard, as Naimov (11-3, 3-1 UFC) takes on Ofli (11-3-1, 0-1 UFC) in the featured prelim at 145 pounds. Marc Goddard draws the officiating assignment. Naimov commands the center at the start. Ofli paws with his jab. Naimov making fluid stance switches and sneaks in a right hand over the top. Leg kicks from Ofli. The Aussie fires off an inside leg kick and it strays low, resulting in a pause to the action to allow Naimov to check the jewels. Naimov doubles up on the jab and slams home a low kick. Ofli darts in and out, often leading with kicks. Clinch knees from Naimov. They clinch along the fence, as Ofli scores with knees to the body and legs. Crowd half-heartedly boos. Goddard asks for more action. Naimov turns his opponent into the fence. Ninety seconds to go. They separate. Double jab from Naimov. Ofli feints. Naimov connects with a left hook, circles on the outside and steps into a short standing elbow. Crushing body kick from Naimov. He decks an off-balance Ofli with a two-punch burst, then ducks into a takedown. Ofli stands. They close the round in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Naimov
Round 2
Back at for the middle stanza. Ofli crashes into the clinch behind an overhand right. Knees to the legs from Naimov. He lands a pair of right hands over the top on the break, then circles. They trade left hooks. Naimov staggers. Ofli powers into double underhooks and bullies his opponent into the fence. Fans boo, as the action stalls. They trade shots at close range. Ofli works on a trip but goes nowhere. Naimov breaks free and volleys. Ofli shells up and weathers the onslaught. Naimov completes a takedown with a little more than two minutes to go and sets up in side control. Ofli gets back to his feet. Naimov scores with a few elbows in the clinch. Ofli secures double underhooks and backs his adversary to the fence yet again. Knees the legs from the Aussie. Goddard urges more action and eventually restarts them. Naimov doubles up on the jab and gets off a left hook before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ofli
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Ofli
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ofli
Round 3
One round to go, and the outcome remains very much in doubt. Naimov lands a wheel kick, but Ofli manages to withstand the impact. Ofli ducks into a takedown attempt but loses his balance and falls backward. Naimov lands in full mount and cuts loose with a series of rapid-fire elbows before moving to the back. He secures position with a body triangle and looks to soften up Ofli with punches. Midway through the period. Naimov stays busy with punches and continues to chew valuable time off the clock. Ofli not making much progress toward an escape. Finally, he turns, builds his base and gets back to his feet. Less than a minute left. Ofli uncorks hooks to the body from both hands and presses forward. Naimov welcomes him into the clinch. Ofli doing everything he can to turn the round around. Naimov backpedals and lets the time expire.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Naimov (29-28 Naimov)
The Official Result
Muhammadjon Naimov def. Kaan Ofli—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Muhammad Naimov, citing his well-rounded skills, speed, and athleticism. He notes that Kaan Ofli is a BJJ black belt but lacks the length and wrestling to be effective at this level. He believes Naimov's striking and takedown defense will be key, and he is growing more confident in Naimov as fight week progresses.
Big Brady is not high on Muhammad Naimov but thinks this is a good matchup for him. He notes Kaan Ofli laid an egg in his last fight and was brutally knocked out. Brady expects Naimov to be the better striker and knock Ofli out in the first round, though he would never lay -300 on Naimov.
Connor picks Naimov, citing his superior athleticism and strength. He notes that both fighters are similar brawlers, but Naimov is a slightly better athlete and has a more durable chin. Connor believes Naimov's physicality and ability to win scrambles will be the difference, and that Ofli's tendency to crash the pocket will play into Naimov's strengths.
Naimov has more powerful striking and will land more often, winning on the scorecards if he can't get a late finish. Both fighters like to wrestle and have power, but Naimov's output and power are expected to be the difference.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov to win by KO in the second round or late first. He believes Naimov has wicked grappling skills and knockout power, and that Ofli's short reach (66 inches) will be a disadvantage. He thinks Naimov will have an advantage on the feet and won't be outmuscled.
Zane picks Naimov, agreeing that he is the stronger athlete and more likely to win the physical exchanges. He notes that Ofli's game is one-dimensional and that Naimov's durability and power should carry him. Zane also points out that Ofli's loss to Myron Santos showed he can be overwhelmed, and Naimov presents a similar challenge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Lima | 0 | 30 of 85 | 35% | 55 of 120 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 37 of 70 | 52% | 62 of 98 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felipe Lima | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 31 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 35 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Felipe Lima | 0 | 18 of 54 | 33% | 18 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Felipe Lima | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Lima | 30 of 85 | 35% | 14 of 60 | 6 of 15 | 10 of 10 | 26 of 72 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 6 |
| Muhammad Naimov | 37 of 70 | 52% | 10 of 37 | 14 of 19 | 13 of 14 | 31 of 60 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felipe Lima | 7 of 19 | 36% | 3 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 6 |
| Muhammad Naimov | 14 of 23 | 60% | 3 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Felipe Lima | 18 of 54 | 33% | 10 of 39 | 3 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Muhammad Naimov | 21 of 36 | 58% | 7 of 19 | 8 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 20 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Felipe Lima | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Muhammad Naimov | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Naimov, citing his power, size, and athleticism. He notes that Felipe Lima is moving up from bantamweight on short notice, which is a significant disadvantage. He acknowledges Lima is a very good prospect but believes the size and power difference will be too much. He is surprised Naimov is not a bigger favorite.
Cody picks Lima despite moving up a weight class on short notice, believing he is the better fighter. He notes Naimov's cardio issues and reliance on power wrestling, and expects Lima to survive early rounds and take over later. He acknowledges the risk of Naimov's size and strength.
Daniel Vreeland picks Felipe Lima but is hesitant due to the 'debut stunt' factor. He believes Lima is the more well-rounded and physical fighter with five-round experience, but worries about debut jitters. He acknowledges Naimov's toughness and improvements but sees Lima as the better fighter overall.
Jacob picks Lima, believing he is the more technical striker and well-rounded fighter. He worries about the short notice and weight cut but thinks Lima's technicality will trouble Naimov. He notes Naimov struggled with Nathaniel Wood, who is not a big featherweight, and thinks Lima could outfight him. He is not sure if he will bet it.
JP picks Naimov by submission, noting that Bagdasarian's only two losses are by submission and Naimov has 3 submission wins. He believes Naimov will take the fight to the ground and submit him. Brevan agrees, adding that Naimov can also win by ground-and-pound. He suggests a prop bet on under 2.5 rounds. Both see Naimov finishing the fight early.
Paul leans towards Naimov, citing his size advantage and the fact that Lima is moving up on short notice. He notes that Naimov has never been finished and that Lima's preparation is questionable. However, he doesn't bet the winner, instead taking the over 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov over Felipe Lima, despite expressing dislike for Naimov. He notes that Naimov is a massive featherweight with power, while Lima is a bantamweight moving up and has been out for 11 months. He believes Lima is undersized and lacks finishing potential, while Naimov has shown he can rock opponents. He also cynically suggests that Naimov may cheat if needed, but ultimately picks him to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Erik Silva | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Erik Silva | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Erik Silva | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Naimov as the more well-rounded and dangerous fighter, citing his power and wrestling ability. He notes that Naimov benefited from fouls in his last fight but still believes he should win. He mentions waiting for prop bets on round lines but is confident Naimov gets the job done.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov to win by TKO in the second round. He notes that Naimov came into the UFC on short notice and pulled off a big upset against Jamie Mullarkey, then beat Nathaniel Wood. He criticizes Erik Silva's performance against TJ Brown, saying Silva gassed out in five minutes and makes mistakes on the ground. Brady believes Naimov can hang in grappling early but will break Silva as the fight goes on due to Silva's poor cardio.
Cody picks Silva as a PRP pick, noting Naimov's suspect cardio, wrestling, and striking. He thinks Silva can wrestle and take Naimov down, holding him for two rounds. He acknowledges Silva may gas but Naimov will too. He sees value at the plus price and is fading Naimov.
The host acknowledges the heavy betting line on Naimov (close to -600) but believes Naimov's pure wrestling advantage and aggressive style will overcome any altitude concerns. He expects Naimov to out-grind Silva, who is an early finisher but will be overwhelmed by Naimov's pressure.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation, noting Naimov's suspect cardio and Silva's wrestling but also Silva's age and submission losses. He is not interested in parlaying Naimov and doesn't commit to either side.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 50 of 72 | 69% | 70 of 94 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 48 of 81 | 59% | 100 of 140 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 6:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 49 of 64 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:37 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 30 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:59 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 39 of 54 | 72% | 47 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 21 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 50 of 72 | 69% | 37 of 57 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 36 of 56 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 10 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 48 of 81 | 59% | 31 of 60 | 10 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 48 | 11 of 14 | 13 of 19 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 10 of 17 | 58% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 18 of 28 | 64% | 13 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 12 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 11 of 13 | 84% | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 39 of 54 | 72% | 32 of 46 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 28 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 |
| Nathaniel Wood | 19 of 40 | 47% | 14 of 33 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood but doesn't love the odds at 3-to-1. He trusts Wood's durability after the war with Andre Fili and his takedown defense. He worries about Naimov's power and the fact that Naimov is untested at 145 with a full camp. Wood is not in any of his parlays, indicating lower confidence.
Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He highlights Wood's high volume (over 6 significant strikes per minute), solid wrestling, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. The main concern is Wood's chin, as he has been dropped and finished before, giving Naimov a puncher's chance. However, Brady believes Wood will win a clear 30-27 decision if his durability holds.
Cody picks Wood, emphasizing his speed, wrestling, and volume. He notes that Naimov is a one-dimensional power puncher who lost to Colin Anglin. Cody believes Wood's skill set will overwhelm Naimov, but he acknowledges the power threat.
Daniel picks Nathaniel Wood to win, acknowledging that Wood is a much better fighter overall but is in a high-risk, low-reward spot against a dangerous opponent. He notes Wood's chin issues and the letdown spot after fighting higher-ranked opponents. He believes Wood should win clearly but warns that Naimov is KO or bust and could catch Wood. He still picks Wood but is cautious.
Wood is the more complete fighter with relevant experience. At featherweight, he doesn't have to cut extra weight and can use his speed and footwork to stay away from Naimov's power. Expects Wood to put on a masterclass from striking to takedowns to Jiu-Jitsu, winning by decision.
Paul picks Wood but is hesitant due to Wood's durability issues. He notes that Wood is faster and more skilled, but Naimov has power and could knock him out. Paul expects Wood to win if he avoids big shots, but he is worried about the chin.
The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood by late rounds TKO, specifically in the third round. He argues that Wood's technical striking, high guard, and tucked chin will make it difficult for Naimov to land a knockout. He also notes that Wood's shorter stature will help him stuff takedowns and counter Naimov's big shots. He dismisses Naimov's upset win over Jamie Mullarkey because Mullarkey's striking defense was poor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 39 of 71 | 54% | 40 of 73 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 24 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 16 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 39 of 71 | 54% | 15 of 43 | 14 of 18 | 10 of 10 | 27 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 1 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 28 of 70 | 40% | 17 of 56 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 60 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 23 of 45 | 51% | 5 of 24 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 34 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 16 of 35 | 45% | 7 of 24 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 16 of 26 | 61% | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 12 of 35 | 34% | 10 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Angelo picks Mullarkey due to short notice for Naimov, but is not touching the odds (-590). He thinks Mullarkey is a jack of all trades and should win, but Naimov is decent and could cause trouble. He notes Mullarkey was preparing for a good striker, so his grappling should be on point. He is not confident enough to bet.
Cody picks Mullarkey, noting his favorable matchup after originally facing a tough wrestler. He highlights Mullarkey's solid cardio, ground game, and power. Cody recalls Naimov's poor Contender Series performance where he was outwrestled and out struck. He thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and durability will be too much for Naimov, even if Naimov has a puncher's chance.
Connor picks Mullarkey, agreeing with the size and short-notice factors. He notes that Naimov's game is based on pocket exchanges and clinch knees, but Mullarkey's toughness and ability to survive should allow him to take over. Connor also points out that Naimov struggles when pressured, and Mullarkey can put his foot on the gas.
Daniel picks Mullarkey, noting that Naimov is a step up in competition and Mullarkey's experience should carry him. He acknowledges the line is high but thinks Mullarkey can use wrestling to control the fight. He mentions that Naimov showed cardio issues in his Contender Series fight, gassing in the third round.
Jacob picks Mullarkey, believing the path to victory via wrestling is obvious. He thinks Naimov is dangerous with unorthodox striking, but Mullarkey should grapple early and win easily. Jacob notes Mullarkey has more power than people think and is a tough matchup. He is confident Mullarkey wins but acknowledges the odds are too high.
Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with a well-rounded game. Naimov is a short-notice debutant with questionable cardio and level of competition. Mullarkey will mix striking and grappling, pull ahead later, and win by decision. The odds are too high (-350), but Mullarkey should win.
Paul picks Mullarkey confidently despite the high price. He notes Mullarkey's toughness, having been dropped by Michael Johnson and recovered. Paul thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and cardio are superior, and that Naimov's Contender Series performance was unimpressive. He expects Mullarkey to take Naimov down, grind him out, and get a TKO in the second or third round. Paul acknowledges the price is steep but sees Mullarkey as safe.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, calling this the main event for him. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey looked good in his last win but that Michael Johnson arguably beat him. He believes Naimov is a different level, with a split decision win over Damir Ismagulov and a win over Matteus Gamrot. He thinks Naimov's body kicks will be key, as Mullarkey keeps his guard high, leaving the body open. He predicts Naimov will open up shots to the head after body work.
Zane picks Mullarkey, citing his size advantage and toughness. He notes that Naimov is a natural featherweight taking the fight on short notice, and his blitzing style may not work against Mullarkey's durability. Zane expects Mullarkey to weather any early storm and take over with his range-based game.
Mairon Santos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 35 of 69 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Mairon Santos | 1 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 43 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mairon Santos | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Naimov | 18 of 48 | 37% | 7 of 29 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 9 | 13 of 40 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 27 of 45 | 60% | 11 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Naimov | 11 of 18 | 61% | 3 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 7 of 15 | 46% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Naimov | 6 of 26 | 23% | 3 of 18 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 16 of 24 | 66% | 6 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Naimov | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Angelo picks Mairon Santos because he sets a better pace, moves forward, and has power in both hands and feet. He notes that Naimov is well-rounded but lacks urgency and danger, often just trying to win minutes rather than finish. Angelo expects the optics of Santos moving forward and Naimov slowing the pace to favor Santos. He also mentions the over on the round line as a potential bet due to both fighters' durability.
Big Brady picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov. He criticizes Naimov's volume, cardio, and cheating, calling him one of the biggest cheaters in the UFC. He believes Santos is the better striker with more volume and room for growth, and expects Santos to win by decision as long as he stuffs takedowns and his chin holds up.
Cody picks Santos, citing his youth, takedown defense, and striking. He notes that Santos trains with Fighting Nerds and has improved. He believes Naimov is one-dimensional and low-volume, and that Santos will stuff takedowns and outpoint him. He expects Santos to win by decision.
Connor picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is a physical phenom with explosive power and speed. He acknowledges that Santos can be inactive and has poor positioning, but believes Naimov is so hittable that Santos will land big shots. Connor cites Naimov's lack of defense and Santos's power advantage.
Daniel picks Santos, citing his technical striking, improved takedown defense, and overall skill. He believes Santos will dictate the fight on the feet and outclass Naimov, who is solid but not special. He sees Santos as a future top-15 fighter.
Lucrative James believes Mairon Santos is the better striker and will light up Muhammad Naimov on the feet. He notes Naimov's grappling-heavy game plan will cause him to gas out, while Santos' youth and improvement give him a higher ceiling. He predicts Santos wins, possibly by finish or decision, and is confident in the pick.
The host believes Santos is physical enough to stop Naimov's takedowns and is the better striker. He expects Santos to counter Naimov's power shots effectively, batter his legs, and eventually secure a knockout victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Santos is a much better striker and that Naimov's takedowns are his only path. He believes Santos will defend takedowns and win a decision. He mentions that Santos by decision is around even money and is a good play.
The Guru picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov, citing Santos' superior standup and damage ability compared to Naimov's control-based wins. He notes that Naimov's recent victories were close decisions relying on control time, while Santos has a clear win over Sadique Youssef and a KO of Kofley. The Guru believes Santos will finish Naimov in round two by KO.
Zane picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is more dangerous moment to moment and has the physical tools to compete. He acknowledges that Naimov could use pressure and wrestling to neutralize Santos, but believes Santos's power and explosiveness give him the edge. Zane calls it a good matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 36 of 86 | 41% | 60 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 71 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 19 of 30 | 63% | 19 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 29 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:35 | |
| 3 | Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 36 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sodiq Yusuff | 36 of 86 | 41% | 9 of 44 | 9 of 19 | 18 of 23 | 35 of 84 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 40 of 83 | 48% | 22 of 56 | 10 of 18 | 8 of 9 | 35 of 77 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sodiq Yusuff | 19 of 30 | 63% | 4 of 11 | 7 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 9 of 27 | 33% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sodiq Yusuff | 10 of 26 | 38% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 16 of 27 | 59% | 11 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sodiq Yusuff | 7 of 30 | 23% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mairon Santos | 15 of 29 | 51% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sodiq Yusuff as the underdog, but with hesitation. He notes that Yusuff is a fantastic striker with incredible speed and a wide variety of attacks, but is on a two-fight skid. He contrasts Santos's methodical approach with Diego Lopez's aggressive style that troubled Yusuff, suggesting that if Santos lets Yusuff settle in, Yusuff could win. However, he also acknowledges that Santos is good and could control the pace. Angelo's pick seems influenced by personal affinity for Yusuff's social media presence.
Big Brady picks Mairon Santos, citing his power and durability. He notes Sodiq Yusuff's inactivity, injuries, and questionable chin. He expects a standing banger and predicts Santos wins by first-round knockout, though he is not fully confident.
The host thinks the public is low on Santos due to a controversial decision win, but sees this as a winnable fight for him. He expects Santos to dictate the pace with high output and volume, which should muzzle Yusuff, who needs a knockout to win. He leans with Santos to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Mairon Santos, calling him underrated and believing he should have won his last fight against Francis Marshall. He thinks Santos is talented and hungry, while Sodiq Yusuff is chinny and not a full-time fighter anymore. He predicts Santos will finish Yusuff by TKO, noting Yusuff gets wobbled easily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 58 of 129 | 44% | 78 of 154 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Francis Marshall | 0 | 39 of 143 | 27% | 64 of 179 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mairon Santos | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Francis Marshall | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 36 of 76 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Mairon Santos | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 19 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francis Marshall | 0 | 8 of 40 | 20% | 8 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 3 | Mairon Santos | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 41 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Francis Marshall | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 20 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mairon Santos | 58 of 129 | 44% | 29 of 80 | 14 of 30 | 15 of 19 | 57 of 128 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Francis Marshall | 39 of 143 | 27% | 32 of 136 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 142 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mairon Santos | 18 of 42 | 42% | 5 of 21 | 4 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 17 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Francis Marshall | 16 of 45 | 35% | 10 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Mairon Santos | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 23 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Francis Marshall | 8 of 40 | 20% | 8 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mairon Santos | 21 of 51 | 41% | 14 of 36 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Francis Marshall | 15 of 58 | 25% | 14 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-355), Marshall (+280)
Round 1
From one Santos to another we go (no relation), as the self-proclaimed “Legend” Santos (14-1, 1-0 UFC) tries to go for two in a row in the Octagon. To prevail, he will need to put out “Fire” Marshall (8-2, 2-2 UFC). The featherweights will be joined by referee Chris Tognoni, who clocks them as they elect not to touch gloves. Santos lunges forward with a front kick, and Marshall slips out of the way and beans him with a right hand over the top that stuns Santos. Santos tries to go one-for-one with his opponent, and Marshall sweeps him off his feet with a powerful calf kick. Marshall shoots in from a distance for a takedown, and the Brazilian skirts out of the way to get back to the center of the cage. When Santos gets off a leg kick, Marshall clips him with a left hand that stumbles him but does not put him down. Santos chambers and fires a low kick, knocking Marshall to his seat for a second. Marshall springs back up and darts in with a one-two, and he scores a leg kick and checks one coming back his way. Marshall backs off with a short combination as Santos bears down on him, and he lashes out with a right hand that just grazes off the chin. When Santos attacks a low kick, Marshall’s counter is primed and ready to fire. Marshall clips Santos with it, and Santos gets back in his face and clubs him with a right hand on the temple. Marshall’s success prompts the fans to cheer “USA” for him until he gets his, and then the chants die down. Marshall gets back to it with a few long punches, only to get chopped at with a leg kick. Marshall gives him one back to think about, and rolls with a booming right hand that bangs into the side of his head. Santos lets loose a leg kick, and Marshall shoots in with a telegraphed takedown and is met with an uppercut. Marshall winds up with a left hand and knocks “The Legend” to the canvas, and he immediately is faced with a takedown attempt. Marshall fights out of it to get to the side while Santos is trying to stand, and he beats on him on the side of the dome. Santos leans himself against the fencing, and Marshall drops in a few more right hands until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Round 2
The fighters race towards one another to start off the second round, with Marshall looking for his jab early. Santos slaps one away and pops Marshall in the chops with his own. When Santos is faking low kicks, Marshall gets tired of reacting to them and smacks the Brazilian in the face with a left hand. Santos lunges at him with a left hook, and Marshall parries it and cannot get out of the way of two leg kicks, although he partially checks the second. Marshall scoops in a left uppercut when Santos leaves his guard down, and he rails a right hand around the guard to sting Santos. When Santos backpedals, Marshall chases him down and lands a few punches on his foe’s guard. Marshall disengages, and he tries to time a counter but is beaten to the punch by a leaping Santos. Marshall uses his jab to disallow Santos from loading up, and he swats away a front kick to catch his man with a left. The third strike in a combination from Santos busts up Marshall’s nose, which is firmly leaking at this point. Santos slaps a few low kicks in when there is a lull in the action, and Marshall springs into action with a big left hook that brushes past his intended target. Marshall rushes forward with a tackling takedown, taking Santos off his feet and drifting past Santos when the first try fails. Marshall grips Santos from behind and clasps his hands around the waist, kicking Santos’ feet out from underneath him a few times when Santos scampers back upright. Marshall grinds his adversary against the wire, looking for trips until Santos turns around. Marshall considers going after a single-leg takedown, but Santos uses a knee shield to push Marshall away from him and force a separation. Santos lets fly a head kick, and Marshall shrugs it off and blocks another from the other side right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Marshall
Round 3
The featherweights clap hands to get going in the last stanza, with Santos again in the center of the cage looking for leg kicks. Marshall spurs himself into action with three clubbing punches, only to back away when Santos is on him with power. Marshall sneaks a right hand in around the guard, and he slips away before Santos can bear down on him. Marshall intercepts an advancing Santos with a stiff jab, and he continues moving so Santos cannot trap him. Marshall leans forward and unleashes a right hand from an odd angle, and he dances out of harm’s way as Santos’ volume has diminished fairly significantly. Santos gets off two punches, but Marshall is elusive and throws back three. The Brazilian absorbs a left hand on the chin when coming forward despite his guard pinned to his jab, and Marshall is slicker and quicker. Santos tries to step in with a knee, and it is a few feet away from a moving Marshall. Marshall sits down on a handful of punches, ignoring what comes back his way and checking a leg kick. Marshall is in and out with a jab, slipping strikes and peppering “The Legend” with offense. Santos is one-and-done with a power overhand right, and he jabs out with a front kick off the midsection. Marshall thumps the front leg with a kick, and he turns his head out of the way of a right hand after completing his own combo. Santos stands firm and plants his fists on Marshall’s chin, and Marshall does not like this and shoots. Santos tries to roll with it, but Marshall smothers him and puts him flat on his back with 25 seconds remaining on the clock. Marshall resides in the closed guard, with Santos swatting at him with his hands that have nothing on them. Before Marshall can get off much ground-and-pound, time expires to conclude the pairing.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Marshall (30-27 Marshall)
The Official Result
Mairon Santos def. Francis Marshall via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mairon Santos | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
| Kaan Ofli | 1 | 31 of 67 | 46% | 32 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mairon Santos | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Kaan Ofli | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mairon Santos | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Kaan Ofli | 1 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mairon Santos | 12 of 28 | 42% | 10 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaan Ofli | 31 of 67 | 46% | 15 of 48 | 9 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 27 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mairon Santos | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaan Ofli | 19 of 43 | 44% | 9 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mairon Santos | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kaan Ofli | 12 of 24 | 50% | 6 of 15 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ofli (+164), Santos (-205)
Round 1
Team Grasso placed not one but two competitors in the finals of the 145-pound tournament on this season of the reality show. Ofli (11-2-1, 0-0 UFC) qualified for the six-figure match by throttling Roedie Roets with a guillotine, while Santos (13-1, 0-0 UFC) surpassed replacement Guillermo Torres in a close three-round encounter to reach it himself. There is nothing left but the particulars issued by referee Chris Tognoni, and the cage door locks behind them. The former teammates touch ‘em up, and Ofli wades forward into combat only to get popped with a greeting card of a right hand from Santos. Ofli responds with a jump knee and grabs hold of the Brazilian’s leg to take him down, and Santos splits away from that attempt without concern. Santos clips his foe on the way in with a right hand, and he lifts up a knee to catch Ofli on the side of the head. Ofli walks him down fearlessly, and he goes to a knee in pursuit of a takedown. Ofli is stood up, so he lands a few knees on the inside. Ofli grinds, and Santos does not appear concerned as his back is squeezed against the wire. Santos ignores a few knees to nail Ofli on the cheek with an elbow, forcing an immediate separation. Santos jabs with a front kick, and he doubles up on his jab to follow. Santos splits the guard with a jab, and he blasts the front leg with a kick that nearly takes Ofli off his feet. Ofli responds with a right hand over the top, and he is met with a right-hand counter. Santos pushes out his front kick again to great effect, and a slow but methodical one-two finds its home. A power calf kick from the Brazilian succeeds in taking Ofli off his feet, and he stands back to let Ofli get back up. Ofli absorbs another low kick that he does not like, and he runs forward and is met with a knee that glances off his chin. Ofli dodges a right hook by a whisker, and he scores a trio of punches to back Santos off momentarily. Santos prods out with two straight right hands, and he jumps at his foe with a switch knee. Ofli lets him land and knocks him away with a counter right. The round ends with Santos scoring a head kick.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Round 2
The pace picks up where it left off, with Santos the aggressor firing off kicks and punches that Ofli cannot defend. Ofli fires back his own leg kick, and he is caught on the way in with a left but still manages to jam Santos against the fence for a second. Santos circles away and returns to the middle of the cage, and he walks through a body kick and attacks with a jump switch kick. The front kick from Santos is money in the bank, and he strings a Superman punch behind it to further fluster Ofli. Santos jabs and connects with a cross, and Ofli marches forward loaded for bear.
When he sees Ofli loading up, “The Legend” lashes out with a looping right that skims the target and follows with a tremendous left hand that separates Ofli from his senses. The lights go out for Ofli, who drops to his knees totally unconscious. Before he falls face-first to the canvas, Santos is on him with two painful yet academic right hands to seal the deal.
Tognoni wrenches Santos off the unconscious Ofli when he sees that Ofli is in dreamland, and Ofli faceplants having lost control of his faculties. While history’s Genghis Khan likely died due to an illness, “Genghis Kaan” was slain—figuratively speaking, of course—by a vicious left hook from a former teammate. That is a way to make a statement to the company, with Santos announcing himself to everyone that will be a factor moving forward. He is the latest featherweight victor of “The Ultimate Fighter,” and ring girl Brookilyn Wren is the one to hand him his trophy with UFC chief Dana White nowhere in sight. The triumphant Santos declares that he is the new Alex Pereira, while saying he plans on becoming a champion like interviewer Michael Bisping.
The Official Result
Mairon Santos def. Kaan Ofli R2 1:30 via KO (Punch)
Cody doesn't have a pick because the opponent for Ofli is not yet determined at the time of recording. He mentions that Santos and Ziggy Montes Rasa are the two best guys and the winner of that fight would beat Ofli. He says he needs to see the odds before making a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kaan Ofli as the underdog, noting Ofli is likely the stronger grappler while Santos has big leg kicks but issues on the mat. He admits he is not very familiar with either fighter and advises caution.
Paul doesn't have a pick because the opponent is unknown. He says it's impossible to provide betting advice without odds. He mentions he saw Ofli's fight and he looked solid, but needs more information.
Expert Picks (10)
Angelo picks Mairon Santos because he sets a better pace, moves forward, and has power in both hands and feet. He notes that Naimov is well-rounded but lacks urgency and danger, often just trying to win minutes rather than finish. Angelo expects the optics of Santos moving forward and Naimov slowing the pace to favor Santos. He also mentions the over on the round line as a potential bet due to both fighters' durability.
Big Brady picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov. He criticizes Naimov's volume, cardio, and cheating, calling him one of the biggest cheaters in the UFC. He believes Santos is the better striker with more volume and room for growth, and expects Santos to win by decision as long as he stuffs takedowns and his chin holds up.
Cody picks Santos, citing his youth, takedown defense, and striking. He notes that Santos trains with Fighting Nerds and has improved. He believes Naimov is one-dimensional and low-volume, and that Santos will stuff takedowns and outpoint him. He expects Santos to win by decision.
Connor picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is a physical phenom with explosive power and speed. He acknowledges that Santos can be inactive and has poor positioning, but believes Naimov is so hittable that Santos will land big shots. Connor cites Naimov's lack of defense and Santos's power advantage.
Daniel picks Santos, citing his technical striking, improved takedown defense, and overall skill. He believes Santos will dictate the fight on the feet and outclass Naimov, who is solid but not special. He sees Santos as a future top-15 fighter.
Lucrative James believes Mairon Santos is the better striker and will light up Muhammad Naimov on the feet. He notes Naimov's grappling-heavy game plan will cause him to gas out, while Santos' youth and improvement give him a higher ceiling. He predicts Santos wins, possibly by finish or decision, and is confident in the pick.
The host believes Santos is physical enough to stop Naimov's takedowns and is the better striker. He expects Santos to counter Naimov's power shots effectively, batter his legs, and eventually secure a knockout victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Santos is a much better striker and that Naimov's takedowns are his only path. He believes Santos will defend takedowns and win a decision. He mentions that Santos by decision is around even money and is a good play.
The Guru picks Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov, citing Santos' superior standup and damage ability compared to Naimov's control-based wins. He notes that Naimov's recent victories were close decisions relying on control time, while Santos has a clear win over Sadique Youssef and a KO of Kofley. The Guru believes Santos will finish Naimov in round two by KO.
Zane picks Mairon Santos, noting that Santos is more dangerous moment to moment and has the physical tools to compete. He acknowledges that Naimov could use pressure and wrestling to neutralize Santos, but believes Santos's power and explosiveness give him the edge. Zane calls it a good matchup.
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