UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Age 27
Height 6' 0"
Reach 73"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Iwo Baraniewski
15.77 SLpM
70.0% Str. Acc.
14.01 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Ibo Aslan
5.75 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.96 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Iwo Baraniewski - Fight History
SCHED vs Junior Tafa
13
138 MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The host picks Baraniewski by armbar, noting that Baraniewski is a very good grappler with judo and powerful takedowns. He expects Baraniewski to exchange a few strikes, then toss Tafa and armbar him as soon as they hit the mat. He mentions that Tafa's takedown defense and submission defense are not there.

armbar
"I'm going armbar for Barnatt."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

AJ picks Baraniewski to finish Tafa, likely by submission in round one, citing Baraniewski's judo background and Tafa's suspect grappling. He notes Baraniewski can also win on the feet but expects the smart strategy to be takedown and submission. AJ is confident Baraniewski will showcase his grappling and get a first-round finish.

under 1.5 rounds minus 300; Baraniewski round 1 finish
"I think Baronki is going to get Tafa down and showcasing a new level of grappling... I think the submission will open itself up in round one."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski but expresses concern about his lack of experience in later rounds, as he has never been past the first round. He notes that Baraniewski has power and can wrestle if needed, while Tafa's takedown defense is terrible. However, he worries that if Baraniewski doesn't finish early, he might gas.

"I'm going to pick Io Baronki, but this dude hasn't sniffed a second round, let alone a full-blown decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Big Brady picks Iwo Baraniewski to win by first round submission. He notes that Junior Tafa has the worst grappling in the UFC and that Baraniewski should take him down and submit him easily. However, he worries about Baraniewski's fight IQ and whether he will choose to strike instead of grappling.

by first round submission
"I'll say I will by first round submission here."
BU
Bum MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski has five straight knockouts and is a brutal finisher. Junior Tafa has a weak chin and was knocked out by Billy Elekana. Baraniewski will knock him out in the first round, possibly with a submission but likely a KO.

KO in first round
"EO is going to knock him out in the first round."
FI
Fight Night Picks Expert Confident picked May 31, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Iwo Baraniewski should win because he has a grappling advantage over Junior Tafa, who is susceptible to low kicks and has questionable cardio. However, Baraniewski can be reckless and hittable, so he must grapple to avoid getting clipped. The host expects a finish, possibly by submission, but notes Baraniewski's inconsistency.

Iwo Baraniewski wins by submission or knockout; smart move would be to grapple
"EO should win this fight. And I say should because EO could fight like a dumbass at times. ... The grappling is definitely the whole of Junior Taffa."
GR
Greedo Plays MMA Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Baraniewski is fundamentally better and has power, but Tafa has a puncher's chance. Baraniewski should win by first-round knockout if he doesn't get reckless. Tafa is bigger but lacks technical striking and grappling.

first round knockout
"Give me Ew though to win the fight by first round knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 30, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Lucrative James picks Iwo Baraniewski, expecting him to use his grappling to neutralize Junior Tafa's striking. He notes Baraniewski's takedown instincts and ground game, predicting a KO via ground and pound in round 1. He acknowledges Tafa's power but believes Baraniewski's wrestling will be the difference.

Iwo Baraniewski via KO (ground and pound) in round 1
"I'm taking Ewa Baronki to win his fight. I'm taking him via KO and I'm taking him via KO. Ground and pound in round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 1, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Baraniewski is a powerful wrestler with finishing ability; Tafa has poor takedown defense and gets demoralized on the ground. Baraniewski should take him down easily and finish by submission or TKO. The round one submission prop at +1100 is a great value.

Baraniewski round 1 submission (+1100); under 1.5 rounds (-300)
"I think Baroni runs through Tafa in this spot. I'm kind of surprised Baronki is not up to like -6700 at this point in time."
CANCEL vs Billy Elekana
WIN vs Austen Lane
KO R1 0:28 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iwo Baraniewski 1 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Austen Lane 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iwo Baraniewski 1 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Austen Lane 0 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iwo Baraniewski 10 of 13 76% 9 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 8
Austen Lane 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iwo Baraniewski 10 of 13 76% 9 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 8
Austen Lane 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Baraniewski (-600); Lane (+450)

Round 1
Lucasz Bosacki is the referee. Baraniewski opens with a low kick. Baraniewski gets inside on Lane in short order and
drops his adversary with an overhand right followed by a left hook to the chin. The Pole hovers over his fallen opponent and unloads with a few follow-up punches before Bosacki decides he’s seen enough.
Baraniewski has eight professional victories — two in UFC competition — and all have come inside of a round.

The Official Result
Iwo Baraniewski def. Austen Lane via TKO (Punches) R1 0:28
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski confidently, stating he should run through Austen Lane. He notes Iwo has power, wrestling, and is well-rounded, while Lane's only successful wrestling was against a fighter with no takedown defense. He believes this matchup is designed to give Iwo a win to build the division.

"Evo Baroni should run through Austin Lane here, right? He's got the power to knock him out. He's got the wrestling to take him down."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Big Brady is very confident in Iwo Baraniewski (Berenice), calling this another 'sanctioned murder.' He notes that Austen Lane has a terrible chin, has been knocked out seven times (six by KO), and is cutting down to 205 at 38 years old, which he doubts will happen. He highlights Baraniewski's power and skill, predicting a brutal first-round knockout. He also questions whether Lane will even make weight.

Iwo Baraniewski by first-round KO
"Give me Berenice here. I think Berenice knocks out Austin Lane and I think he does it brutally."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Cody also picks Baraniewski, noting Lane's history of getting finished and the difficulty of cutting to 205. He expects a first-round KO.

under 1.5 rounds
"I got EO by KO which was uh just like plus or minus 148 at that book."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Connor picks Baraniewski, echoing Zane's assessment. He calls Lane a 'short-armed brawler with a tiny reach' who nearly lost to Ibo Aslan. Connor notes that Lane's size makes him easier to hit and he cannot take a punch. He sarcastically comments on Lane's lack of skills and says the fight has 'disaster written all over it' for Lane.

Baraniewski opened at -450, currently -600; Lane opened at +300/+350, currently +450.
"And yeah, it's just this has disaster written all over it."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Daniel Vreeland picks Iwo Baraniewski to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges questions about Baraniewski's cardio and ground game, but believes Lane is not the one to expose them. He expects Baraniewski's power to be too much.

"I think he comes out here and he knocks out Austin Lane most likely in the first round."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Daniel picks Iwo to knock out Lane in the first round. He acknowledges Iwo is untested past round one but has no faith in Lane, who is dropping to 205 and older. He thinks Iwo's power and finishing ability will be too much.

"I obviously also got Iwo. It's just, you know, I already told you all the reasons I'm taking a wait-and-see approach on him, not cuz I have any kind of faith in Austin Lane whatsoever. I just need to know …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Baranowski is explosive and durable but unknown beyond round one. Lane has grappling but is likely to get knocked out. Baranowski is unplayable at -600; Lane is a dog or pass.

"Baranowski is completely unplayable at these odds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

James picks Iwo Baraniewski to win via knockout in round one, citing his power and Lane's poor chin. He notes that Lane is moving down from heavyweight and has been knocked out before. He thinks Lane's only chance is to land a big shot, but Baraniewski's low center of gravity and judo make him hard to take down.

Iwo Baraniewski by KO, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm picking EO via knockout the under one and a half should be a good price as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The host is confident in Iwo Baraniewski winning in round one by knockout. He highlights Baraniewski's power and finishing ability, while Lane is an aging heavyweight cutting weight with poor durability. He expects Baraniewski to overwhelm Lane quickly, possibly via ground and pound or a big shot.

Round one knockout prop
"Give me Baronki round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Paul expects Baraniewski to knock out Lane early, given Lane's poor durability and weight cut. He likes the inside the distance prop.

under 1.5 rounds
"I think Ewell knocks him out, knocks him out in the first round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The MMA Guru picks Iwo Baraniewski to KO Austen Lane in the first round. He notes Lane has a suspect chin and poor striking defense, while Baraniewski has crafty power and good recovery. He expects Baraniewski to land a lead hook or check hook and put Lane out cold, as Lane tends to put his hands away when swung at.

TKO in the first round
"I'm going to go with Io Balani getting this one done. TKO in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Zane picks Baraniewski confidently, calling Lane a disaster. He notes that Lane cannot take a punch, falls over his feet when throwing more than one punch, and has no technique or tenacity. Despite Lane's size advantage (6 inches height, 7 inches reach), Zane sees it as a liability because Lane is easy to hit and cannot take shots. Baraniewski is a short-armed brawler but should overwhelm Lane.

Baraniewski opened at -450, currently -600; Lane opened at +300/+350, currently +450.
"We've run the test on Austin Lane. We've run it five times. Statistically, I think we've come up with a definitive answer. Not good."
WIN vs Ibo Aslan
KO R1 1:29 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iwo Baraniewski 2 22 of 32 68% 28 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Ibo Aslan 1 30 of 53 56% 31 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iwo Baraniewski 2 22 of 32 68% 28 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Ibo Aslan 1 30 of 53 56% 31 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iwo Baraniewski 22 of 32 68% 18 of 27 3 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 14 6 of 6 10 of 12
Ibo Aslan 30 of 53 56% 29 of 47 0 of 4 1 of 2 19 of 35 11 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iwo Baraniewski 22 of 32 68% 18 of 27 3 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 14 6 of 6 10 of 12
Ibo Aslan 30 of 53 56% 29 of 47 0 of 4 1 of 2 19 of 35 11 of 18 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Baraniewski (-185), Aslan (+154)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Baraniewski wades forward winging punches but can’t find the range. Aslan lands a front kick to the midsection and then follows up with a leg kick. Baraniewski shoots for a takedown, but it leads to a chaoctic punching exchange in close quarters. Both men are swinging wildly, and both are landing significant leather. Baraniewski drops Aslan with a clean right hook and flurries with punches. Aslan gets to his feet and rocks Baraniewski with power punches near the fence. It’s been a wild brawl with little regard for defense — a bar fight in the cage, in other words. Aslan marches forward carelessly, slinging punches at his Polish foe. Aslan’s hands are extremely low and
Baraniewski capitalizes, as he drops his adversary with a clean counter right hook to the chin. Aslan falls to his back, and Baraniewski dives into top position with a vengeance, flattening the Turkish fighter out with a punishing finishing salvo.
Baraniewski extends his first-round finishing streak to seven in his promotional debut.

The Official Result
Iwo Baraniewski def. Ibo Aslan via KO (Punches) R1 1:29
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski, a UFC debutant with only six pro fights, but notes he has well-rounded skills including wrestling, striking, and jiu-jitsu. He contrasts him with Ibo Aslan, who relies on power but has poor cardio and was inactive in his last fight. Angelo expects Baraniewski to push the pace, shoot takedowns, and potentially overwhelm Aslan. He mentions he placed a half-unit bet on Baraniewski at -140 earlier.

bet at -140 (half unit)
"I am picking him to win. We threw a half a unit on him. We got him at minus 140."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Big Brady picks Iwo Baraniewski, noting his judo, ground and pound, and submission game. He highlights Aslan's poor ground game and cardio, referencing Aslan's submission loss to Iwan Cudalaba. He expects Baraniewski to take Aslan down and submit him in the first round.

Baraniewski by first round submission
"I'm gonna take Barninski to win this fight in the very first round. I'll say he takes down Oslon, gets on top, and finds a submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Cody picks Baraniewski, citing his power, aggression, and amateur experience. He notes that Aslan looked terrible in his last fight against Billy Alakana, showing no urgency. He believes Baraniewski will come forward and finish Aslan. He mentions that Aslan is petrified of being taken down and doesn't commit to his punches.

"Give me the guy who's actually going out there trying to finish fights and has multiple paths."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Connor picks Iwo Baraniewski, noting that he is a knockout artist with a long amateur career and seems like a real lifetime fighter. He contrasts Aslan, who he views as a beach muscles guy who doesn't actually do MMA for the right reasons. Connor believes Baraniewski has potential as a grimy clinch mauler.

"I have to pick Baranovski because he is a knockout artist and he's got a long amateur career as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)

Daniel is uncertain, noting Aslan's unusual performance in his last fight (gunshy) and Baraniewski's lack of octagon time past round one. He needs more information on both fighters' durability and game plans before making a pick.

"I need to look into this one a little bit more."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Lucrative James believes Iwo Baraniewski's judo base and power will be too much for Ibo Aslan, who has poor grappling and defensive holes. He expects Baraniewski to take the fight to the ground and finish early, possibly via ground and pound or submission. He predicts a first-round stoppage.

under 1.5 rounds
"I will take Baronki to get the first round stoppage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The host views this as a fun fight between two raw light heavyweights but gives Baraniewski the edge due to having more tools. Despite a weaker strength of schedule, he expects Baraniewski to get the fight to the ground, land big shots from top position, and find a finish within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think Beerusi has a few more tools... should be able to get this fight to the ground, land some big shots from on top, and eventually find a finish within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Paul agrees, noting that Aslan's last performance was abysmal and he showed no desire to win. He believes Baraniewski is a powerful finisher who will overwhelm Aslan. He thinks Baraniewski wins by TKO.

"I will take EO to get the win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The Guru picks Iwo Baraniewski over Ibo Aslan, citing Baraniewski's extensive amateur experience (16-3) and his KO of a hyped prospect. He notes that Aslan has been fraud-checked and that Baraniewski has a ground game. The Guru predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission.

first round finish
"I'm going to go with Iro Baroni to finish this one in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Zane picks Iwo Baraniewski, agreeing that he has potential as a grimy clinch mauler, a style not well represented at light heavyweight. He notes that Aslan has been dusted by better competition and seems more interested in selfies. Zane picks the guy with potential.

"You pick the guy with potential."
Ibo Aslan - Fight History
LOSS vs Iwo Baraniewski
KO R1 1:29 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iwo Baraniewski 2 22 of 32 68% 28 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Ibo Aslan 1 30 of 53 56% 31 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iwo Baraniewski 2 22 of 32 68% 28 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Ibo Aslan 1 30 of 53 56% 31 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iwo Baraniewski 22 of 32 68% 18 of 27 3 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 14 6 of 6 10 of 12
Ibo Aslan 30 of 53 56% 29 of 47 0 of 4 1 of 2 19 of 35 11 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iwo Baraniewski 22 of 32 68% 18 of 27 3 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 14 6 of 6 10 of 12
Ibo Aslan 30 of 53 56% 29 of 47 0 of 4 1 of 2 19 of 35 11 of 18 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Iwo Baraniewski vs. Ibo Aslan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Baraniewski (-185), Aslan (+154)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Baraniewski wades forward winging punches but can’t find the range. Aslan lands a front kick to the midsection and then follows up with a leg kick. Baraniewski shoots for a takedown, but it leads to a chaoctic punching exchange in close quarters. Both men are swinging wildly, and both are landing significant leather. Baraniewski drops Aslan with a clean right hook and flurries with punches. Aslan gets to his feet and rocks Baraniewski with power punches near the fence. It’s been a wild brawl with little regard for defense — a bar fight in the cage, in other words. Aslan marches forward carelessly, slinging punches at his Polish foe. Aslan’s hands are extremely low and
Baraniewski capitalizes, as he drops his adversary with a clean counter right hook to the chin. Aslan falls to his back, and Baraniewski dives into top position with a vengeance, flattening the Turkish fighter out with a punishing finishing salvo.
Baraniewski extends his first-round finishing streak to seven in his promotional debut.

The Official Result
Iwo Baraniewski def. Ibo Aslan via KO (Punches) R1 1:29
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski, a UFC debutant with only six pro fights, but notes he has well-rounded skills including wrestling, striking, and jiu-jitsu. He contrasts him with Ibo Aslan, who relies on power but has poor cardio and was inactive in his last fight. Angelo expects Baraniewski to push the pace, shoot takedowns, and potentially overwhelm Aslan. He mentions he placed a half-unit bet on Baraniewski at -140 earlier.

bet at -140 (half unit)
"I am picking him to win. We threw a half a unit on him. We got him at minus 140."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Big Brady picks Iwo Baraniewski, noting his judo, ground and pound, and submission game. He highlights Aslan's poor ground game and cardio, referencing Aslan's submission loss to Iwan Cudalaba. He expects Baraniewski to take Aslan down and submit him in the first round.

Baraniewski by first round submission
"I'm gonna take Barninski to win this fight in the very first round. I'll say he takes down Oslon, gets on top, and finds a submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Cody picks Baraniewski, citing his power, aggression, and amateur experience. He notes that Aslan looked terrible in his last fight against Billy Alakana, showing no urgency. He believes Baraniewski will come forward and finish Aslan. He mentions that Aslan is petrified of being taken down and doesn't commit to his punches.

"Give me the guy who's actually going out there trying to finish fights and has multiple paths."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Connor picks Iwo Baraniewski, noting that he is a knockout artist with a long amateur career and seems like a real lifetime fighter. He contrasts Aslan, who he views as a beach muscles guy who doesn't actually do MMA for the right reasons. Connor believes Baraniewski has potential as a grimy clinch mauler.

"I have to pick Baranovski because he is a knockout artist and he's got a long amateur career as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)

Daniel is uncertain, noting Aslan's unusual performance in his last fight (gunshy) and Baraniewski's lack of octagon time past round one. He needs more information on both fighters' durability and game plans before making a pick.

"I need to look into this one a little bit more."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Lucrative James believes Iwo Baraniewski's judo base and power will be too much for Ibo Aslan, who has poor grappling and defensive holes. He expects Baraniewski to take the fight to the ground and finish early, possibly via ground and pound or submission. He predicts a first-round stoppage.

under 1.5 rounds
"I will take Baronki to get the first round stoppage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The host views this as a fun fight between two raw light heavyweights but gives Baraniewski the edge due to having more tools. Despite a weaker strength of schedule, he expects Baraniewski to get the fight to the ground, land big shots from top position, and find a finish within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think Beerusi has a few more tools... should be able to get this fight to the ground, land some big shots from on top, and eventually find a finish within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Paul agrees, noting that Aslan's last performance was abysmal and he showed no desire to win. He believes Baraniewski is a powerful finisher who will overwhelm Aslan. He thinks Baraniewski wins by TKO.

"I will take EO to get the win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The Guru picks Iwo Baraniewski over Ibo Aslan, citing Baraniewski's extensive amateur experience (16-3) and his KO of a hyped prospect. He notes that Aslan has been fraud-checked and that Baraniewski has a ground game. The Guru predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission.

first round finish
"I'm going to go with Iro Baroni to finish this one in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Zane picks Iwo Baraniewski, agreeing that he has potential as a grimy clinch mauler, a style not well represented at light heavyweight. He notes that Aslan has been dusted by better competition and seems more interested in selfies. Zane picks the guy with potential.

"You pick the guy with potential."
CANCEL vs Junior Tafa
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Aslan. He emphasizes that Tafa's record is terrible and that he has never won a fight past two minutes. Connor notes that Aslan has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. He thinks Aslan's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Zane picks Aslan, reasoning that Aslan is a nuts-and-bolts slugger who will pressure Tafa and throw combinations. He notes that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. Zane believes Aslan's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge, as Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
LOSS vs Billy Elekana
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ibo Aslan 0 28 of 78 35% 29 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Elekana 0 35 of 68 51% 35 of 68 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ibo Aslan 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Elekana 0 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Ibo Aslan 0 8 of 23 34% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Elekana 0 10 of 21 47% 10 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ibo Aslan 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Elekana 0 15 of 31 48% 15 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ibo Aslan 28 of 78 35% 10 of 57 8 of 10 10 of 11 28 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Elekana 35 of 68 51% 18 of 46 17 of 21 0 of 1 35 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ibo Aslan 8 of 19 42% 1 of 11 2 of 2 5 of 6 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Elekana 10 of 16 62% 3 of 8 7 of 8 0 of 0 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ibo Aslan 8 of 23 34% 3 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Elekana 10 of 21 47% 6 of 14 4 of 6 0 of 1 10 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ibo Aslan 12 of 36 33% 6 of 28 4 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Elekana 15 of 31 48% 9 of 24 6 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ibo Aslan vs. Billy Elekana
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aslan (-260); Elekana (+215)

Round 1
Sherdog’s Devin Tejada has expressed quite a few words about the state of the UFC’s light heavyweight division, namely that the combatants are still able to not just succeed but flourish despite being specialists in a field. In the era of the sport where well-rounded athletes tend to claim belts more often than single-skill experts, 205 pounds may be one of the exceptions. To wit, Aslan (14-2, 2-1 UFC) has earned 14 wins, all 14 by knockout. His losses are both by submission, and California’s Elekana (7-2, 0-1 UFC) would like nothing more than to add a third submission defeat to his ledger. Before the fists fly, referee Jim Perdios gets hold of the situation and starts the clock. The 205ers touch gloves.
Aslan takes the center of the cage and offers distance strikes early, but he remains out of range. They hand-fight while in alternate stances, with Aslan in orthodox to Elekana’s southpaw. Elekana lands first with a front kick to the stomach, and he misses a second that he uses to keep Aslan from reaching him with his hands. Aslan slaps his foe back in the lead thigh with a kick. He strikes the same leg on the inside, but it is one-and-done as he has to dodge a straight right hand from his foe. Elekana just misses a left hand down the pipe, and these two are approaching one another with an abundance of caution. They do not engage much, resulting in boos from the crowd. Elekana lands a front kick, Aslan gets him back with a left, and they take turns attacking one another.
The fighters bounce around without fighting much, offering the occasional single strike while the power is out of range on both sides. Elekana gets off a few front kicks to disallow Aslan from closing the distance, and he has his left hand coiled back ready to strike. Instead of throwing a left, he pitches a head kick from that side that is blocked in time. Elekana shoots for a single, and he cannot keep hold of the limb as he releases it. Both men share a laugh at the feeble takedown effort. Elekana stabs the midsection with his toes extended for another kick, and this and his feinted left hand has kept Aslan from throwing caution to the wind. Elekana lands a body kick and guards against a high kick as the slow round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elekana
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Elekana
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elekana

Round 2
After a fist bump, the two pick up right where they left off with shadowboxing and too many feints and fakes. The first actual strike connects 33 seconds in when Aslan scores a short low kick, and Elekana pays him back immediately with a front kick. They land single punches, and then reset and bob around for a while without fighting. Elekana probes out with a straight left hand, and it is a single attack that does not merit follow-up attention. Aslan surges forward behind fists, but Elekana dodges and counters with a right hook. An Aslan kick brushes the cup, and Elekana talks to him about it and gives him a front kick in the stomach to think about.
Elekana lands at the end of a one-two, but Aslan ignores it and lobs an overhand right at him that goes wide. Aslan tries to reach his foe with overhand rights, but Elekana sees them coming and slips to the side. There is the occasional potshot from either side, but nothing significant that gets the other’s attention. Elekana shoots for a single that fails almost as soon as he grabs hold of the Turkish fighter’s leg, and front kicks from the fighters brush the cup again. Aslan shakes his cup and they do not stop, although given their lack of activity through nearly 10 minutes, it is tough to say they ever started. Aslan plods forward, looping a head kick at his foe that is easily blocked, and Elekana goes for a single that does not get completed because the round ends. Scores may be all over the place in these two rounds given the sheer lack of offense to tabulate.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elekana
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Elekana
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elekana

Round 3
After two rounds of frantic, frenetic combat with maybe a dozen strikes landed from either fighter, they share an embrace. Aslan leads off with multiple low and body kicks, one of which jams into the groin cup. Elekana frowns, and after a few seconds of recovery time, he gets back to business, where Aslan kicks him nearly in the same spot. Elekana lands a body kick and wipes his feet, and he snaps out a jab as both fighters start chatting. Elekana kicks his foe, Aslan kicks him back, and the less-than-stellar action continues. Elekana winds up with wider arcs to his blows, but they only result in getting blocked sooner because they are seen coming. The same goes for Aslan, who goes for a haymaker that is feet off the mark. Elekana reaches him with a big left hook, and Aslan rolls with it to take the brunt out of it.
As Aslan moves in, Elekana tries to time a head kick, but Aslan leans back to sway away from it. When Aslan commits to a punch, Elekana counters him with a left on the eyebrow that splits it open. Elekana plants a one-two on the same spot, wobbling Aslan back, and he does not go for more. As Aslan is allowed time to get his head right, he smiles. “The Last Ottoman” hurls a right hand over the top, but Elekana dodges and gives him a left hand back to think about. As Aslan slowly walks forward, the fans shower the two with boos after almost 15 minutes of shadowboxing. In hopes of going home slightly early, Elekana wings a big left hand, but Aslan is out of the way. The two decided to slug it out with seconds to go, but time expires before it heats up. At least it is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elekana (30-27 Elekana)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Elekana (30-27 Elekana)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elekana (30-27 Elekana)

The Official Result
Billy Elekana def. Ibo Aslan via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Angelo picks Billy Elekana as an underdog, despite being shaken by the +235 odds. He notes Ibo Aslan has immense power but cardio issues, while Billy is durable, can wrestle, and can survive early to take over. He suggests betting the over 1.5 rounds if available.

Bet over 1.5 rounds if available
"I'm going to pick Billy. Let's hope we get a one and a half round line and we're going to slam the over."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Big Brady picks Ibo Aslan, citing his power and takedown defense. He notes Aslan is one-dimensional but that dimension is knocking people out, and he believes Aslan's power will be too much for Elekana, who is hittable and has poor striking defense. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he cautions that Aslan is not someone you want to lay -250 on.

second round knockout
"I think Oon should win this fight. I think he probably does knock out Elakana."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Despite public love for Aslan, who is capable of landing an early finishing shot, Elekana's BJJ improvements are expected to get the fight to the ground and find a submission under one and a half rounds.

submission under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to lean with Alakana's BJJ improvements. Look for him to get this fight to the ground and find a submission under one and a half rounds."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

The MMA Guru picks Billy Elekana, noting his dynamic grappling and ability to get positions like the back, as seen in his debut against Bogdan Guskov. He criticizes Ibo Aslan's technical flaws and susceptibility to mixing it up. He predicts a submission win, specifically a rear-naked choke in the second round.

Submission, round 2, rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Billy Alakana. I'm going to trust Billy Alakana to get this one done. Probably by submission. I'm going to say rear naked choke submission. Second round for Billy Alakana getting this one done."
LOSS vs Ion Cuțelaba
Submission R1 2:51 · UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · Feb 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ion Cuțelaba 0 14 of 31 45% 17 of 39 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:06
Ibo Aslan 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ion Cuțelaba 0 14 of 31 45% 17 of 39 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:06
Ibo Aslan 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ion Cuțelaba 14 of 31 45% 10 of 26 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 26 1 of 2 3 of 3
Ibo Aslan 15 of 30 50% 14 of 28 0 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ion Cuțelaba 14 of 31 45% 10 of 26 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 26 1 of 2 3 of 3
Ibo Aslan 15 of 30 50% 14 of 28 0 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ibo Aslan vs. Ion Cutelaba

Round 1
If this prelim headliner does not end violently, it will be quite the surprise. “The Hulk” Cutelaba (18-10-1, 1 NC; 7-9-1 UFC) has claimed 13 of his 18 wins via strikes, while Aslan (14-1, 2-0 UFC) presents a 100% knockout rate. Referee Kevin MacDonald keeps his head on a swivel for the mayhem that is about to ensue. Nothing more needs to be said other than buckle up, buckaroos. Cutelaba is so intense, security has to keep him from putting his hands on Aslan before the opening bell rings. The power-punching 205ers do not touch gloves. Aslan walks Cutelaba down with his right hand chambered, and he pitches a front kick instead. Cutelaba responds in kind, and he wings an overhand right that buzzes the beard of his foe. Aslan slings back with fire, and the two turn their hips into mighty low kick that crash together. A furious brawl suddenly erupts out of nowhere, with both men bashing each other in the face with ridiculously arced punches. When Cutelaba gets clipped, he shoots for a takedown, and it is rebuffed. Aslan tags him a few more times, and a second takedown effort from the Moldovan succeeds to get his wits back about him. Aslan climbs back to his feet, and he ducks to dodge a spinning back fist from “The Hulk,” who is bleeding already. Aslan tees off with strikes, and Cutelaba steels himself and releases a bomb of a right hand that sends Aslan staggering back. With his balance barely beneath him, Aslan stumbles away and gets taken to the floor by a beautiful double. Cutelaba sits up and smashes Aslan with a number of right hands, forces Aslan to turn over and jumps into dominant position.
Rather than keep smashing, “The Hulk” in mount steps to the side to wrap up an unexpected arm-triangle choke. Aslan hangs on tough as MacDonald checks on him, and he signals he is ok and shows resistance on his arm. As the submission is not wavering, Aslan is about to go out, and he taps out.
Cutelaba stands up and roars repeatedly. In his post-fight interview, the Moldovan declares, “Who now is power,” and that he is a “f---ing crazy guy.” With that, the prelims are violently completed, but who expected the hard-swinging Cutelaba to wrap up a submission?

The Official Result
Ion Cutelaba def. Ibo Aslan R1 2:51 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Big Brady picks Ibo Aslan (Eduard Oslan) despite wanting to back Ion Cuțelaba. He notes Cuțelaba is untrustworthy with poor cardio, often gassing after three minutes of wrestling. He believes Aslan has good takedown defense from training at Extreme Couture and Tiger Muay Thai, carries power late, and will stuff takedowns, causing Cuțelaba to slow down. He predicts a second-round knockout.

by second round knockout
"I'm going to go with oslon here by knockout I would be surprised if this fight went 15"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ion Cuțelaba

The host is intrigued by Cuțelaba as an underdog, noting the fight could be a car crash or a grind. He thinks if Cuțelaba avoids getting knocked out early, he can match Aslan's aggression and power and finish him within the first two rounds.

"if you can avoid getting bonked early in this fight as aan normally puts his opponents away in the first round I think galaba can meet him with that aggression and power and overcome that and finish EO Assam within …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Despite a bias toward Cuțelaba, the Guru picks Aslan, citing Cuțelaba's rough recent wins and low success rate. He notes Aslan is 2-0 in the UFC with finishes, has momentum, and has fought tricky grapplers. He expects Aslan to TKO Cuțelaba in the first or second round, though he mentions Aslan's 'gynoed up' physique as a potential concern.

TKO first or second round
"I'm going IO asan you know if a Felipe Lind can do it I think an IBO Aslan can"
TKO (punches) R1 0:51 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ibo Aslan 0 28 of 36 77% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raffael Cerqueira 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ibo Aslan 0 28 of 36 77% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raffael Cerqueira 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ibo Aslan 28 of 36 77% 26 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 1 28 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raffael Cerqueira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ibo Aslan 28 of 36 77% 26 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 1 28 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raffael Cerqueira 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Angelo picks Ibo Aslan but is hesitant due to lack of tape on Cerqueira and Aslan's cardio issues. He notes Aslan is a heavy-handed striker with power but has holes in his game and cardio problems. Cerqueira is patient and athletic but not aggressive, and it's unknown how he handles getting hit. Angelo will likely avoid betting on this fight.

Will probably avoid betting on this fight.
"I'm going to pick EO Aslan here because seemingly bigger not bigger but faster stronger more athletic more dangerous but again there's not enough tape on hael to really put a flag in the ground."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Big Brady picks Cerqueira due to the unknowns and his potential paths to win. He notes that Cerqueira is a black belt in BJJ and could submit Aslan if he gets the fight to the mat. However, he acknowledges there is little tape on Cerqueira and that both fighters are front-loaded. He predicts a first-round submission for Cerqueira.

first round submission
"I'm going CER here I'll take him to win by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Cody picks Ibo Aslan, believing his UFC experience and cardio will be key against a debuting opponent. He notes that Cerqueira is 34, started late, and has fought low-level competition. Cody thinks Aslan's power and ability to push the pace will lead to a finish in the second round. However, he is not highly confident.

"I'll take the guy with the UFC experience"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Connor picks Cerqueira, noting that Aslan seems like a guy used to dominating with strength but crumbles when pushed back. Cerqueira is more of a fighter who enjoys the fight and has a better defensive feel, though it's hard to have a strong feeling either way.

"Yeah, I'll take cicada too. I it's hard to have a strong, really strong feeling either way. I mean, both of these guys are kind of your typical light heavyweight pickups."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Daniel Vreeland picks Aslan, noting that Cerqueira gets hit a lot and relies on home-run punches. He points out that Aslan showed durability in his last fight, taking punishment but not getting finished. Vreeland expects Aslan's volume to overwhelm Cerqueira, and thinks the line may move in Aslan's favor by fight time.

"I'm taking eoon uh and also I think you were supposed to finish this off but that's okay okay I'm taking Evo oslon"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Daniel Vreeland picks Ibo Aslan to win, but with low confidence due to limited tape on Cerqueira. He notes that Aslan has shown power that carries into later rounds and that Cerqueira's unorthodox striking and lack of high-level competition make him a risk. Vreeland would be more interested if Aslan returns to underdog odds.

"if they give me dog o on ebo I'm a consider it"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Jeff Fox also picks Aslan, though he initially considered Cerqueira. After film study, he saw Cerqueira getting hit a lot and relying on a spinning backfist knockout against a regional opponent. Fox doubts that will work against Aslan, who has proven durable. He also notes Cerqueira's body kicks but questions their effectiveness against higher-level competition.

"I was thinking about taking sequera I did some film study I saw who who he was fighting and I saw he was getting hit a lot as well so yeah"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Cerqueira will get the fight to the ground and use his BJJ black belt to put Aslan in bad positions, opening up a submission opportunity. Look for Cerqueira to wrap up a submission within five minutes.

Cerqueira wins by submission in round 1
"look for Sara to wrap up a submission within five minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Paul picks Aslan, citing Cerqueira's lack of high-level competition and telegraphing of strikes. He believes Aslan's power and durability will be too much, and that Cerqueira's late start and age are disadvantages. Paul is not fully confident but leans Aslan.

"I think IBO asan probably Just Tires him out"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

The Guru picks Raffael Cerqueira, citing his dynamic finishing ability and size advantage. He notes that Ibo Aslan was hit a lot by Anton Turkalj, and believes Cerqueira's power and athleticism will put Aslan away. He acknowledges Cerqueira's unimpressive regional competition but is swayed by his vicious body kicks and spinning elbows. The Guru predicts Cerqueira will catch Aslan at some point and finish him.

"I'm going to go with Raffael Cerqueira catching him at some point in the fight and putting him away."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Raffael Cerqueira

Zane picks Cerqueira because he seems like an actual fighter who enjoys fighting, whereas Aslan is a strong guy who doesn't like fighting and panics when pushed back. Cerqueira has a better feel for navigating exchanges and is more willing to scrap, though neither is a clean technician.

"I think I'll pick cicada too. Um, he's, he's not really any cleaner, a technician than Ibo Aslan. ... But he's big and he kicks hard. And, uh, like I said, I think he likes to fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Ibo Aslan

Zane admitted he was wrong about this fight, having doubted Aslan due to his loss to Anton Turkalj. He credited those who said Aslan would crush Cerqueira, noting Cerqueira is clearly not ready for this level. However, Zane remains unsold on Aslan, describing him as a guy who took up MMA just to get chicks, but acknowledged that's a better base than Cerqueira's.

"i should eat a little crow here feel a little stupid a couple of people said very deliberately that aslan was he was gonna crush sakira"
WIN vs Anton Turkalj
TKO (punch) R3 1:32 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ibo Aslan 1 74 of 180 41% 76 of 183 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Anton Turkalj 0 55 of 157 35% 58 of 162 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ibo Aslan 0 17 of 53 32% 17 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Anton Turkalj 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Ibo Aslan 0 44 of 96 45% 46 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Anton Turkalj 0 23 of 74 31% 26 of 77 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Ibo Aslan 1 13 of 31 41% 13 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Anton Turkalj 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ibo Aslan 74 of 180 41% 57 of 153 4 of 8 13 of 19 65 of 163 8 of 15 1 of 2
Anton Turkalj 55 of 157 35% 36 of 126 11 of 18 8 of 13 49 of 146 6 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ibo Aslan 17 of 53 32% 11 of 43 0 of 1 6 of 9 15 of 49 1 of 2 1 of 2
Anton Turkalj 21 of 49 42% 10 of 31 5 of 8 6 of 10 20 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ibo Aslan 44 of 96 45% 36 of 83 3 of 6 5 of 7 38 of 85 6 of 11 0 of 0
Anton Turkalj 23 of 74 31% 17 of 64 4 of 8 2 of 2 19 of 69 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Ibo Aslan 13 of 31 41% 10 of 27 1 of 1 2 of 3 12 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
Anton Turkalj 11 of 34 32% 9 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 1 10 of 30 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Angelo leans Ibo Aslan, noting he beat Anton Turkalj in their first fight before gassing. He thinks if Aslan has improved his gas tank, he wins easily. He mentions Aslan has knocked out four opponents since their last fight, while Turkalj has been finished twice. He has a half-unit bet on Aslan at -115.

half unit bet at -115
"I'm going to lean ebo here I think we're going to get a discount on this line I have a half a unit bet on him at minus 115"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Cody thinks Aslan has improved since their first fight, with better cardio and training. He believes Aslan's power and leg kicks will be too much for Turkalj, who has been knocked out recently and has poor wrestling entries.

"I think I would go ebo"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Daniel Vreeland picks Ibo Aslan by knockout, citing his revenge motivation and physicality. He notes Aslan was winning their first fight before gassing and getting submitted, and believes Aslan has improved his pacing. He thinks Turkalj takes too much damage and will be overwhelmed early.

"I got ebo ason here by knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Aslan showed discipline in his Contender Series win, waiting for the knockout. He has improved since his loss to Turkalj years ago. Turkalj is on a 3-fight losing streak and has been knocked out by Tyson Pedro. Aslan's power should finish Turkalj early, but if Turkalj gets a takedown, he could submit Aslan. The under 1.5 rounds at -125 is the preferred play, as both have finishing ability inside a round and a half.

Under 1.5 rounds (-125)
"minus 125 the under one and a half is probably what I like in this matchup the most"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

Paul picks Aslan based on the first fight where Aslan dominated before gassing. He thinks Aslan has made adjustments and will finish Turkalj early, though he acknowledges the cardio risk.

"I'm going to go with ebo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ibo Aslan

The host picks Ibo Aslan, liking his momentum and four-fight finish streak. He notes Aslan's good low kicks and hands, and that Turkalj has looked poor in the UFC, especially against Tyson Pedro. He believes Turkalj's hands drop when pressured, leading to a KO. He predicts Aslan wins, possibly by KO.

"I'm gonna go with Ibo Aslan though I am I like his momentum I like that he's on a four fight finish streak"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski, a UFC debutant with only six pro fights, but notes he has well-rounded skills including wrestling, striking, and jiu-jitsu. He contrasts him with Ibo Aslan, who relies on power but has poor cardio and was inactive in his last fight. Angelo expects Baraniewski to push the pace, shoot takedowns, and potentially overwhelm Aslan. He mentions he placed a half-unit bet on Baraniewski at -140 earlier.

bet at -140 (half unit)
"I am picking him to win. We threw a half a unit on him. We got him at minus 140."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Big Brady picks Iwo Baraniewski, noting his judo, ground and pound, and submission game. He highlights Aslan's poor ground game and cardio, referencing Aslan's submission loss to Iwan Cudalaba. He expects Baraniewski to take Aslan down and submit him in the first round.

Baraniewski by first round submission
"I'm gonna take Barninski to win this fight in the very first round. I'll say he takes down Oslon, gets on top, and finds a submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Cody picks Baraniewski, citing his power, aggression, and amateur experience. He notes that Aslan looked terrible in his last fight against Billy Alakana, showing no urgency. He believes Baraniewski will come forward and finish Aslan. He mentions that Aslan is petrified of being taken down and doesn't commit to his punches.

"Give me the guy who's actually going out there trying to finish fights and has multiple paths."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Connor picks Iwo Baraniewski, noting that he is a knockout artist with a long amateur career and seems like a real lifetime fighter. He contrasts Aslan, who he views as a beach muscles guy who doesn't actually do MMA for the right reasons. Connor believes Baraniewski has potential as a grimy clinch mauler.

"I have to pick Baranovski because he is a knockout artist and he's got a long amateur career as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
No clear pick

Daniel is uncertain, noting Aslan's unusual performance in his last fight (gunshy) and Baraniewski's lack of octagon time past round one. He needs more information on both fighters' durability and game plans before making a pick.

"I need to look into this one a little bit more."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Lucrative James believes Iwo Baraniewski's judo base and power will be too much for Ibo Aslan, who has poor grappling and defensive holes. He expects Baraniewski to take the fight to the ground and finish early, possibly via ground and pound or submission. He predicts a first-round stoppage.

under 1.5 rounds
"I will take Baronki to get the first round stoppage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The host views this as a fun fight between two raw light heavyweights but gives Baraniewski the edge due to having more tools. Despite a weaker strength of schedule, he expects Baraniewski to get the fight to the ground, land big shots from top position, and find a finish within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think Beerusi has a few more tools... should be able to get this fight to the ground, land some big shots from on top, and eventually find a finish within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Paul agrees, noting that Aslan's last performance was abysmal and he showed no desire to win. He believes Baraniewski is a powerful finisher who will overwhelm Aslan. He thinks Baraniewski wins by TKO.

"I will take EO to get the win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

The Guru picks Iwo Baraniewski over Ibo Aslan, citing Baraniewski's extensive amateur experience (16-3) and his KO of a hyped prospect. He notes that Aslan has been fraud-checked and that Baraniewski has a ground game. The Guru predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission.

first round finish
"I'm going to go with Iro Baroni to finish this one in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Iwo Baraniewski

Zane picks Iwo Baraniewski, agreeing that he has potential as a grimy clinch mauler, a style not well represented at light heavyweight. He notes that Aslan has been dusted by better competition and seems more interested in selfies. Zane picks the guy with potential.

"You pick the guy with potential."